{ "meta": { "date": "2026-10-23", "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "status": "October 23 two-game slate; all four starting goalies confirmed.", "total": 90, "estimated": 70, "defaultSkaters": 72, "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23", "lineupsStatus": "October 23 NHL.com forward lines and defensive pairs are projected, not confirmed; all four starting goalies confirmed. PP units remain reported and unconfirmed; mismatches with scratched skaters are flagged.", "shotChartStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "zoneFitNote": "Restored matching saved historical shot-location records; current through October 21. Displayed zone fit applies only to the position/chart half of the base blend, followed once by 60/40 player-average shrinkage. Missing chart inputs remain neutral. Model Goal and archives unchanged.", "teamStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "goalieStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "goaliesCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T17:44:29.480Z", "builtAt": "2026-10-23T04:52:00.401688+00:00", "confirmedGoalies": 4, "teamDataRequirements": {}, "newsReview": { "checkedAt": "2026-10-23T17:44:29.480Z", "confirmedGoalies": [ "Jacob Fowler", "Spencer Knight", "Andrei Vasilevskiy", "Mackenzie Blackwood" ], "pendingGoalies": [], "goalieSource": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-23" }, "statisticalCoverageNote": "Dated inputs through October21 cover all four active teams’ latest games; none played October21 or22. League context through October21. Latest downloaded team game counts reconciled. No current-day results in projections.", "sogModelVersion": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "sogModelDescription": "60% existing 50/50 position/chart + attempts SOG blend, plus 40% saved 2025–26 player SOG/game. Applied once; players without prior history retain the base blend. Model Goal remains separate.", "sogBlendUpdatedAt": "2026-10-23T13:42:18Z", "performancePenaltyVersion": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "sogBaseModelVersion": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "performancePenaltySettings": { "recentGames": 5, "recentWeight": 0.3, "playerShrinkMinutes": { "5on5": 60, "5on4": 15 }, "defenseShrinkMinutes": { "5on5": 100, "4on5": 30 }, "zonePriorShots": 30, "individualPenaltyCap": 0.1, "combinedStrengthPenaltyCap": 0.15 }, "pendingDataTeams": [], "performancePenaltyDescription": "Downward recent player attempts/min, recent positional/PK defensive allowance and volume-normalized recent zone shape; 15% combined cap per situation. Applied once before Goal probability. Provisional user-adopted settings, not independently calibrated.", "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "enabled": true, "activeFrom": "2026-10-22", "factor": 0.98, "description": "User-selected 2% reduction to final away-player Model SOG. The locked Goal model derives expected goals from adjusted SOG, reducing goal intensity once by 2%; 1+ goal probability is recalculated. Independent of B2B status. No separate travel, fatigue or B2B penalty." }, "goalModelVersion": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "goalModelDescription": "Current Model SOG × shot-weighted shooting percentage from current plus two prior seasons, regressed with 100 prior shots toward a forward/defense baseline excluding the player; confirmed-only goalie adjustment; Poisson 1+ goal probability. No additional PP or matchup boost.", "btb": { "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "date": "2026-10-23", "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "historyThrough": "2026-10-20", "comparisonPlayers": 72, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "notes": "Experimental ranking index, not probability. Individual metrics use all listed players; unit/exposure percentiles use comparable forward-line or defensive-pair groups. Raw ranks fixed before filtering. All players retained individually. Missing inputs neutral50, known no-PP role0. Goalie-neutral Goal baseline avoids counting the current goalie factor in both Goal model and Goalie groups. Correlated groups are capped, not claimed independent.", "samplePolicy": "Team H2H ratios use own observed SOG × regressed shooting baseline with 10-game prior, plus games/(games+10) confidence shrink. Player-goalie scoring uses50-shot prior plus shots/(shots+50) shrink. Exposure uses games/(games+5). iXG uses10-game .2 xG/game prior. These are provisional, not fitted.", "limits": "Exact-five PP production remains partial; player/team fallback PP rates shrink unit percentile toward50. Exposure xGA describes overall unit allowance, not defenseman-specific shot allowance. Shift coverage is partial. Prior previews used different defender normalization and forecast-based H2H denominators; this audited revision supersedes those scores." }, "playerGoalieH2HWindow": "2021–22 through October21, 2026 recorded unblocked attempts", "goalieH2HWindow": "Last five available saved goalie/team regular-season appearances through October21" }, "players": [ { "id": "8480426", "name": "Charle-Edouard D'Astous", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "position": "D", "currentGP": 8, "currentSOG": 1.375, "priorSOG": 1.1428571428571428, "currentTOI": 14.65, "currentFiveTOI": 12.25625, "ppShare": 0.29464285714285715, "rate": 1.0364027211635198, "fifty": 1.099462792488696, "inputs": { "Player": "Charle-Edouard D'Astous", "Player_ID": "8480426", "Team": "TBL", "Opponent": "COL", "Position": "D", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 0.9761148225279668, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.1321019514222408, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 8, "Prior_GP": 70, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.8954614992350844, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.623709413016594, "Current_PP_SOG60": 9.486166007905139, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 5.2734375, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 13.546660714285713, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 12.25625, "Current_PP_Share": 0.29464285714285715, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.1925120939083385, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 759.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2576.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 5, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.612685185185185, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 1.217765624506436, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 1.3590947420634922, "Other_State_SOG": 0.06392857142857143, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9914667421548949, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.1428571428571428, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Not on projected lineup", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "PP1 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-23", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:35:35.615148+00:00", "priorGP": 70.0, "currentTotalSOG": 11.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.58125, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.38 SOG/game in 8 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 8 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Not listed on latest projected chart; October 23 dressing status unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.362, "currentIXG": 0.04525, "priorTOI": 18.752142857142857, "priorPPTOI": 0.9752380952380952, "deploymentChange": -4.102142857142857, "ppTOIChange": 0.6060119047619048, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020668", "date": "20260106", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 21.166666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2025020209", "date": "20251104", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 16.15 } ], "h2hGames": 2, "h2hAvailableGames": 2, "h2hSOG": 1.5, "opponentDefense": { "team": "COL", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 273.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.3, "mostAllowedRank": 16, "fiveSogAllowed60": 27.02393375298751, "pkSogAllowed60": 47.51429828420589, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 40.2, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 100.0, "R": 60.0, "L": 45.0, "D": 68.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.0, "L": 4.5, "R": 6.0, "D": 6.8 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 29.0, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.8, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.3, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.8, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8478406", "team": "COL", "name": "Mackenzie Blackwood", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-23T16:26:32.640Z", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-23", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.8888888888888888, "gaa": 2.897734132893307, "gsax": -2.4450000000000003, "goalsAllowed": 20.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 17.555, "shotsAgainst": 180.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0252999843886221, "factor": 1.0252999843886221, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter for October 23; Daily Faceoff confirmation.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.06682315104357589, "goalHistoryGoals": 7.0, "goalHistoryShots": 91.0, "goalExpected": 0.07769484406527065, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.07966052240719843, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.07475327200149591, "goalProbability": 0.0765702230999091, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.18169510984131915, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 8, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.1626935104363043, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.8954614992350844, "Current_PP_SOG60": 9.486166007905139, "Current_5v5_Min": 12.25625, "Current_PP_Share": 0.29464285714285715, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.612685185185185, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.3590947420634922, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.125, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0289555868427727, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9996701327073623, "Position_Factor": 0.9904286105353721, "Input_GP": 8, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 759.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2576.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.623709413016594, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 5.2734375, "Prior_5v5_Min": 16.557619047619045, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.1925120939083385, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9628113879003559, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.34640522875817, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.0140506280825434, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.0528971145492034, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9763394926253812, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.052549798228601, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.469046714774022, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 11.745513866231647, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five saved meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. Dated 2024–2026 regular-season appearances.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020668", "date": "20260106", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 21.166666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2025020209", "date": "20251104", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 16.15 } ], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "NHL.com projected lineup", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/tampa-bay-lightning/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T04:50:37.269727+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/tampa-bay-lightning/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-22T18:13:31.663Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 8, "priorAttempts": 109, "fitPct": 0.4683542694181142, "index": 100.46835426941811, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 68.8532110091743, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.604370751696635, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 65 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 11.169724770642201, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.2025641924569896, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 10 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 3.669724770642202, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.26262818174886604, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 10 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 13.738532110091745, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.0950116912032684, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 17 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 1.834862385321101, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.044692588641311204, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.7339449541284404, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.6551158457307906, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 7, "fitPct": 1.7632371516401122, "index": 101.76323715164011, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 94.28571428571428, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.125139957052596, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 5.714285714285714, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.208159137665604, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.03906538797926373, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.5428724091186723, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 15.136821787266058, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -37.289476773404765, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 0.4683542694181142, "zonePPFit": 1.7632371516401122, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October23 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported unit only. Expected PP minutes retain measured current-season deployment; no guessed transfer.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478406", "goalieName": "Mackenzie Blackwood", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8480426", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "window": "2021–22 through October21, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked attempts", "coverageNote": "Observed saved encounters only; missing is unavailable, not zero. Not independently established as complete career coverage." }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478406", "goalieName": "Mackenzie Blackwood", "opponent": "TBL", "games": 4, "availableGames": 4, "shotsAgainst": 99.0, "goalsAgainst": 15.0, "savePct": 0.8484848484848485, "gaa": 4.800426704595964, "gsax": -3.8269999999999995, "log": [ { "gameId": "2024020413", "date": "20241205", "goalieTeam": "SJS", "opponent": "TBL", "shotsAgainst": 23.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 2400.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.907 }, { "gameId": "2023021108", "date": "20240321", "goalieTeam": "SJS", "opponent": "TBL", "shotsAgainst": 21.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.592 }, { "gameId": "2023020106", "date": "20231026", "goalieTeam": "SJS", "opponent": "TBL", "shotsAgainst": 21.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 1649.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.962 }, { "gameId": "2021020264", "date": "20211120", "goalieTeam": "NJD", "opponent": "TBL", "shotsAgainst": 34.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.712 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "coverageNote": "Last five observed goalie/team regular-season appearances. Historical coverage is not independently established as career-complete." }, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.3275078557135205, "attemptProjection": 1.1546276877570771, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261021", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 17.0, "sog": 8.0, "seconds": 5883.0, "expectedMinutes": 12.25625, "projectedAttempts": 2.125, "onNet": 0.4144690722306486, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0290266956001277, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9868443082842028 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 3.0, "sog": 2.0, "seconds": 759.0, "expectedMinutes": 1.3590947420634922, "projectedAttempts": 0.32231495859213255, "onNet": 0.4394001812639038, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9649306914974484, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9896116972997503 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.9353641395903737, "ppAdjusted": 0.18070363214492516, "other": 0.125 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.241067771735299, "baseline": 1.1428571428571428, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 70.0, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.2017835201840366, "adjustedSOG": 1.1864219494248003, "reductionPct": 1.2782311041246275, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.9353641395903737, "afterPlayerForm": 0.9099572555348606, "afterRecentDefense": 0.9353641395903737, "afterRecentZones": 0.9353641395903737, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.9353641395903737, "adjusted": 0.9099572555348606, "playerFactor": 0.97283744054306, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.0140506280825434, "newChartFactor": 1.0140506280825434, "playerRecentAttempts": 9.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 63.05, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.8232961701730652, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0338983050847457, "defenseRecentMinutes": 251.61666666666667, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.18070363214492516, "afterPlayerForm": 0.18070363214492516, "afterRecentDefense": 0.18070363214492516, "afterRecentZones": 0.18050789826837793, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.18050789826837793, "adjusted": 0.18050789826837793, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.0528971145492034, "newChartFactor": 1.0510746878311412, "playerRecentAttempts": 2.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 7.533333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.1194690265486726, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.594204503506829, "defenseRecentMinutes": 15.05, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.1864219494248003, "adjustedSOG": 1.1626935104363043, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.07692307692307693, "goalHistoryGoals": 7.0, "goalHistoryShots": 91.0, "goalExpected": 0.07972328624334768, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.07972328624334768, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.07662817927632679, "goalProbability": 0.07662817927632679, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05763221849322995, "modelSOG": 1.1626935104363043, "historyGames": 78, "seasonGames": { "2025": 70, "2026": 8 }, "historyGoals": 7.0, "historyShots": 91.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.07692307692307693, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.06682315104357589, "goalieFactor": 1.0252999843886221, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8478424", "name": "Jansen Harkins", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "position": "C", "currentGP": 1, "currentSOG": 1.0, "priorSOG": 0.8409090909090909, "currentTOI": 10.916666666666666, "currentFiveTOI": 10.016666666666667, "ppShare": 0.003289473684210526, "rate": 0.8855018990329359, "fifty": 0.93306211051752, "inputs": { "Player": "Jansen Harkins", "Player_ID": "8478424", "Team": "TBL", "Opponent": "COL", "Position": "C", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 0.8094756444412138, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 0.8522742166648394, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 1, "Prior_GP": 44, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.990016638935108, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.480804838908777, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 9.773371212121212, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 10.016666666666667, "Current_PP_Share": 0.003289473684210526, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.04304127021766409, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 608.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 1, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.612685185185185, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.07018206341652154, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.015173306530214425, "Other_State_SOG": 0.0, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9914667421548949, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 0.8409090909090909, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Not on projected lineup", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "PP assignment pending", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-23", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:35:35.615148+00:00", "priorGP": 44.0, "currentTotalSOG": 1.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.03333333333333333, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.00 SOG/game in 1 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 1 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Not listed on latest projected chart; October 23 dressing status unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.195, "currentIXG": 0.195, "priorTOI": 9.590530303030304, "priorPPTOI": 0.22537878787878787, "deploymentChange": 1.326136363636362, "ppTOIChange": -0.19204545454545455, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020968", "date": "20260303", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 9.833333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020789", "date": "20260121", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 14.566666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020262", "date": "20251111", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 8.866666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024021284", "date": "20250413", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 12.383333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020527", "date": "20241220", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 12.016666666666667 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 6, "h2hSOG": 0.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "COL", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 273.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.3, "mostAllowedRank": 16, "fiveSogAllowed60": 27.02393375298751, "pkSogAllowed60": 47.51429828420589, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 40.2, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 100.0, "R": 60.0, "L": 45.0, "D": 68.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.0, "L": 4.5, "R": 6.0, "D": 6.8 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 29.0, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.8, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.3, "oppPosSogAllowed": 10.0, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8478406", "team": "COL", "name": "Mackenzie Blackwood", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-23T16:26:32.640Z", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-23", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.8888888888888888, "gaa": 2.897734132893307, "gsax": -2.4450000000000003, "goalsAllowed": 20.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 17.555, "shotsAgainst": 180.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0252999843886221, "factor": 1.0252999843886221, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter for October 23; Daily Faceoff confirmation.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.09548252760317404, "goalHistoryGoals": 5.0, "goalHistoryShots": 87.0, "goalExpected": 0.07476772618770539, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.07665934849302711, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.07204099812670643, "goalProbability": 0.07379468689175592, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.17536887650494853, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 1, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 0.7830513923808188, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.990016638935108, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 10.016666666666667, "Current_PP_Share": 0.003289473684210526, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.612685185185185, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.015173306530214425, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0289555868427727, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9996701327073623, "Position_Factor": 1.0071306809533955, "Input_GP": 1, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 608.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.480804838908777, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 9.205681818181818, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.04304127021766409, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0297783933518005, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.437908496732026, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.98944097717559, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0189049397923147, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9996701327073623, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.990016638935108, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 0.3333333333333333 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 0.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five saved meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. Dated 2024–2026 regular-season appearances.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020968", "date": "20260303", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 9.833333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020789", "date": "20260121", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 14.566666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020262", "date": "20251111", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 8.866666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024021284", "date": "20250413", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 12.383333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020527", "date": "20241220", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 12.016666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020074", "date": "20241018", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 10.183333333333334 } ], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "NHL.com projected lineup", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 59, "fitPct": -0.35196742748033216, "index": 99.64803257251967, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 10.847457627118645, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.604370751696635, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 16 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 10.16949152542373, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.2025641924569896, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 15 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 72.88135593220339, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.26262818174886604, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 19 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 3.389830508474576, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.0950116912032684, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 2.033898305084746, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.044692588641311204, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.6779661016949153, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.6551158457307906, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -0.35196742748033216, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October23 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported unit only. Expected PP minutes retain measured current-season deployment; no guessed transfer.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478406", "goalieName": "Mackenzie Blackwood", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8478424", "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 2, "log": [ { "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2, "gameId": "2021020363", "date": "20211203" } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "window": "2021–22 through October21, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked attempts", "coverageNote": "Observed saved encounters only; missing is unavailable, not zero. Not independently established as complete career coverage." }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478406", "goalieName": "Mackenzie Blackwood", "opponent": "TBL", "games": 4, "availableGames": 4, "shotsAgainst": 99.0, "goalsAgainst": 15.0, "savePct": 0.8484848484848485, "gaa": 4.800426704595964, "gsax": -3.8269999999999995, "log": [ { "gameId": "2024020413", "date": "20241205", "goalieTeam": "SJS", "opponent": "TBL", "shotsAgainst": 23.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 2400.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.907 }, { "gameId": "2023021108", "date": "20240321", "goalieTeam": "SJS", "opponent": "TBL", "shotsAgainst": 21.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.592 }, { "gameId": "2023020106", "date": "20231026", "goalieTeam": "SJS", "opponent": "TBL", "shotsAgainst": 21.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 1649.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.962 }, { "gameId": "2021020264", "date": "20211120", "goalieTeam": "NJD", "opponent": "TBL", "shotsAgainst": 34.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.712 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "coverageNote": "Last five observed goalie/team regular-season appearances. Historical coverage is not independently established as career-complete." }, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.018904939792315, "attemptProjection": 0.5233230491344034, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261021", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 1.0, "sog": 1.0, "seconds": 601.0, "expectedMinutes": 10.016666666666667, "projectedAttempts": 1.0000000000000002, "onNet": 0.5153408635744612, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0290266956001277, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9868443082842028 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 2.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.015173306530214425, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.5294117647058824, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9649306914974484, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9896116972997503 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.7711139944633592, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.7711139944633592, "baseline": 0.8409090909090909, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 44.0, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.7990320330416518, "adjustedSOG": 0.7990320330416518, "reductionPct": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.7711139944633592, "afterPlayerForm": 0.7711139944633592, "afterRecentDefense": 0.7711139944633592, "afterRecentZones": 0.7711139944633592, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.7711139944633592, "adjusted": 0.7711139944633592, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.98944097717559, "newChartFactor": 0.98944097717559, "playerRecentAttempts": 1.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 10.016666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0595533498759306, "defenseRecentMinutes": 251.61666666666667, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.03333333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.594204503506829, "defenseRecentMinutes": 15.05, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.7990320330416518, "adjustedSOG": 0.7830513923808188, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.07894736842105263, "goalHistoryGoals": 3.0, "goalHistoryShots": 38.0, "goalExpected": 0.06990804466049494, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.06990804466049494, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.06752043756160847, "goalProbability": 0.06752043756160847, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12855232661793545, "modelSOG": 0.7830513923808188, "historyGames": 107, "seasonGames": { "2024": 62, "2025": 44, "2026": 1 }, "historyGoals": 5.0, "historyShots": 87.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.05747126436781609, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.09548252760317404, "goalieFactor": 1.0252999843886221, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8482201", "name": "Gage Goncalves", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "position": "L", "currentGP": 8, "currentSOG": 0.625, "priorSOG": 1.0405405405405406, "currentTOI": 15.889583333333333, "currentFiveTOI": 14.475, "ppShare": 0.19371118012422361, "rate": 1.0955612579724083, "fifty": 0.9578299618185653, "inputs": { "Player": "Gage Goncalves", "Player_ID": "8482201", "Team": "TBL", "Opponent": "COL", "Position": "C", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 0.989000365809933, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 0.7877543360166831, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 8, "Prior_GP": 74, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.0725388601036268, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.5230501594665125, "Current_PP_SOG60": 7.214428857715431, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 5.537041784157908, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 13.628108108108107, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 14.475, "Current_PP_Share": 0.19371118012422361, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.17343643595449085, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 499.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2576.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 5, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.612685185185185, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.8654723871442013, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.8935286907637452, "Other_State_SOG": 0.060810810810810814, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9914667421548949, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.0405405405405406, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 2", "ppUnit": "PP2 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-23", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:35:35.615148+00:00", "priorGP": 74.0, "currentTotalSOG": 5.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.0395833333333333, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.62 SOG/game in 8 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 8 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 23 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.9229999999999999, "currentIXG": 0.11537499999999999, "priorTOI": 13.08918918918919, "priorPPTOI": 0.8786036036036036, "deploymentChange": 2.8003941441441427, "ppTOIChange": 0.16097972972972974, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020668", "date": "20260106", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 11.783333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020209", "date": "20251104", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 13.533333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020334", "date": "20241125", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 10.933333333333334 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 3, "h2hSOG": 1.3333333333333333, "opponentDefense": { "team": "COL", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 273.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.3, "mostAllowedRank": 16, "fiveSogAllowed60": 27.02393375298751, "pkSogAllowed60": 47.51429828420589, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 40.2, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 100.0, "R": 60.0, "L": 45.0, "D": 68.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.0, "L": 4.5, "R": 6.0, "D": 6.8 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 29.0, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.8, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.3, "oppPosSogAllowed": 4.5, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8478406", "team": "COL", "name": "Mackenzie Blackwood", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-23T16:26:32.640Z", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-23", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.8888888888888888, "gaa": 2.897734132893307, "gsax": -2.4450000000000003, "goalsAllowed": 20.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 17.555, "shotsAgainst": 180.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0252999843886221, "factor": 1.0252999843886221, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter for October 23; Daily Faceoff confirmation.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.1310665308382122, "goalHistoryGoals": 19.0, "goalHistoryShots": 143.0, "goalExpected": 0.11165388185496458, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.11447872332282424, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.10564624400122384, "goalProbability": 0.10816908658529785, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.2522842584074009, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 8, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 0.8518870617914616, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.0725388601036268, "Current_PP_SOG60": 7.214428857715431, "Current_5v5_Min": 14.475, "Current_PP_Share": 0.19371118012422361, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.612685185185185, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.8935286907637452, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0289555868427727, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9996701327073623, "Position_Factor": 0.9858567030129328, "Input_GP": 8, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 499.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2576.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.5230501594665125, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 5.537041784157908, "Prior_5v5_Min": 11.652027027027026, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.17343643595449085, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9444803098773402, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.062091503267974, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.9702943364455372, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.9560133238458751, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9164238955583092, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9556979663190125, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 2.3758455700379475, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 7.8431372549019605, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 2.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five saved meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. Dated 2024–2026 regular-season appearances.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020668", "date": "20260106", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 11.783333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020209", "date": "20251104", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 13.533333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020334", "date": "20241125", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 10.933333333333334 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Gage Goncalves", "Brayden Point", "Jake Guentzel" ], "lineupSource": "NHL.com projected lineup", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "rosterPosition": "L", "projectedPosition": "L", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:35:35.615148+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/tampa-bay-lightning/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-22T18:13:31.663Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 8, "priorAttempts": 95, "fitPct": -0.9901887851487601, "index": 99.00981121485124, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 12.973684210526315, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.604370751696635, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 13 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 33.026315789473685, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.2025641924569896, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 25 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 38.921052631578945, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.26262818174886604, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 39 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 3.3684210526315788, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.0950116912032684, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 8 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 10.447368421052632, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.044692588641311204, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 1.2631578947368423, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.6551158457307906, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 10, "fitPct": -1.4662225384708307, "index": 98.53377746152917, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 4.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.125139957052596, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 12.000000000000002, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.208159137665604, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 64.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.03906538797926373, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 12.000000000000002, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.5428724091186723, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 4.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 15.136821787266058, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 4.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -37.289476773404765, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -0.9901887851487601, "zonePPFit": -1.4662225384708307, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October23 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported unit only. Expected PP minutes retain measured current-season deployment; no guessed transfer.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478406", "goalieName": "Mackenzie Blackwood", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8482201", "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 2, "log": [ { "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2, "gameId": "2024020413", "date": "20241205" } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "window": "2021–22 through October21, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked attempts", "coverageNote": "Observed saved encounters only; missing is unavailable, not zero. Not independently established as complete career coverage." }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478406", "goalieName": "Mackenzie Blackwood", "opponent": "TBL", "games": 4, "availableGames": 4, "shotsAgainst": 99.0, "goalsAgainst": 15.0, "savePct": 0.8484848484848485, "gaa": 4.800426704595964, "gsax": -3.8269999999999995, "log": [ { "gameId": "2024020413", "date": "20241205", "goalieTeam": "SJS", "opponent": "TBL", "shotsAgainst": 23.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 2400.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.907 }, { "gameId": "2023021108", "date": "20240321", "goalieTeam": "SJS", "opponent": "TBL", "shotsAgainst": 21.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.592 }, { "gameId": "2023020106", "date": "20231026", "goalieTeam": "SJS", "opponent": "TBL", "shotsAgainst": 21.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 1649.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.962 }, { "gameId": "2021020264", "date": "20211120", "goalieTeam": "NJD", "opponent": "TBL", "shotsAgainst": 34.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.712 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "coverageNote": "Last five observed goalie/team regular-season appearances. Historical coverage is not independently established as career-complete." }, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.5608905312593871, "attemptProjection": 1.006087970462997, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261021", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 15.0, "sog": 4.0, "seconds": 6948.0, "expectedMinutes": 14.475, "projectedAttempts": 1.8749999999999998, "onNet": 0.4398703617964151, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0290266956001277, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9868443082842028 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 3.0, "sog": 1.0, "seconds": 499.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.8935286907637452, "projectedAttempts": 0.3223149585921325, "onNet": 0.5476505227737051, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9649306914974484, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9896116972997503 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.6478718248592514, "ppAdjusted": 0.13561742600194063, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.7834892508611921, "baseline": 1.0405405405405406, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 74.0, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.8863097667329315, "adjustedSOG": 0.8692725120321037, "reductionPct": 1.9222686401876965, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.6478718248592514, "afterPlayerForm": 0.6478718248592514, "afterRecentDefense": 0.6197395490034947, "afterRecentZones": 0.6475967309209623, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.6194764003578718, "adjusted": 0.6194764003578718, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9565774050108315, "oldChartFactor": 0.9702943364455372, "newChartFactor": 0.9691292769502262, "playerRecentAttempts": 10.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 76.15, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.0137885751805646, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.7977332170880559, "defenseRecentMinutes": 251.61666666666667, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.13561742600194063, "afterPlayerForm": 0.13561742600194063, "afterRecentDefense": 0.13561742600194063, "afterRecentZones": 0.13561742600194063, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.13561742600194063, "adjusted": 0.13561742600194063, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.9560133238458751, "newChartFactor": 0.9560133238458751, "playerRecentAttempts": 2.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 4.616666666666666, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.2009626955475332, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.594204503506829, "defenseRecentMinutes": 15.05, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.8692725120321037, "adjustedSOG": 0.8518870617914616, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.13414634146341464, "goalHistoryGoals": 11.0, "goalHistoryShots": 82.0, "goalExpected": 0.1469655346060548, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.1469655346060548, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.13667626830391486, "goalProbability": 0.13667626830391486, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12849166993685562, "modelSOG": 0.8518870617914616, "historyGames": 142, "seasonGames": { "2024": 60, "2025": 74, "2026": 8 }, "historyGoals": 19.0, "historyShots": 143.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.13286713286713286, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.1310665308382122, "goalieFactor": 1.0252999843886221, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 52.26849978564337, "btb": { "id": "8482201", "name": "Gage Goncalves", "score": 52.26849978564337, "components": { "Goal model": 39.130434782608695, "SOG model": 10.144927536231885, "Unit attack": 93.33333333333333, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 44.285714285714285, "Shot quality": 33.333333333333336, "Goalie": 88.02816901408451, "Team H2H": 53.37278106508876, "Goalie H2H": 50.31194295900178 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 3.347857195742634, "unitPlayers": [ "Gage Goncalves", "Brayden Point", "Jake Guentzel" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 3, "goalieH2HShots": 1, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 31 } }, { "id": "8484149", "name": "Gavin Brindley", "team": "COL", "opponent": "TBL", "position": "C", "currentGP": 4, "currentSOG": 0.75, "priorSOG": 1.1071428571428572, "currentTOI": 8.133333333333333, "currentFiveTOI": 8.133333333333333, "ppShare": 0.0, "rate": 0.8763132825527944, "fifty": 0.8020299724064107, "inputs": { "Player": "Gavin Brindley", "Player_ID": "8484149", "Team": "COL", "Opponent": "TBL", "Position": "R", "Current_GP": 4, "Prior_GP": 56, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.532786885245901, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.473450391368733, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 10.739144845873383, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 8.22565476190476, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 8.133333333333333, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.16391587243401756, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1191.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 2, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Measured game-matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Historical skater-team PP minute approximation, existing hybrid method", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.795185185185185, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.23580208893369173, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.0, "Other_State_SOG": 0.03214285714285714, "Environment_Proxy": 0.8844868901771036, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.1071428571428572, "Status": "Historical input object restored from saved prior summaries", "Availability_Note": "Conditional on dressing", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.153213009666825, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.3370891912720235 }, "status": "Not on projected lineup", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "PP assignment pending", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-23", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:35:35.615148+00:00", "priorGP": 56.0, "currentTotalSOG": 3.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.0, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.75 SOG/game in 4 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 4 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Not listed on latest projected chart; October 23 dressing status unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.22999999999999998, "currentIXG": 0.057499999999999996, "priorTOI": 9.551488095238096, "priorPPTOI": 0.8979166666666666, "deploymentChange": -1.4181547619047628, "ppTOIChange": -0.8979166666666666, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020668", "date": "20260106", "team": "COL", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 14.816666666666666 } ], "h2hGames": 1, "h2hAvailableGames": 1, "h2hSOG": 0.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "TBL", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 218.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 24.22222222222222, "mostAllowedRank": 29, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.310572168589594, "pkSogAllowed60": 47.9002079002079, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 36.333333333333336, "positionUnassignedSOG": 1.0, "positionTotals": { "L": 36.0, "R": 49.0, "D": 66.0, "C": 66.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.333333333333333, "L": 4.0, "R": 5.444444444444445, "D": 7.333333333333333 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 24.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.25, "positionSourceDifference": 1.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 24.22222222222222, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.333333333333333, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8476883", "team": "TBL", "name": "Andrei Vasilevskiy", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-23T17:44:29.480Z", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-23", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.8975903614457832, "gaa": 2.4556616643929057, "gsax": 1.495000000000001, "goalsAllowed": 17.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 18.495, "shotsAgainst": 166.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9911791106382869, "factor": 0.9911791106382869, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter for October 23; Daily Faceoff confirmation.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.11425345953429233, "goalHistoryGoals": 6.0, "goalHistoryShots": 65.0, "goalExpected": 0.09657929905239467, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.0957273837408217, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.09206210386983292, "goalProbability": 0.09128828810821481, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.0773815761618113, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": null, "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 4, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 0.845307437044452, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.532786885245901, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 8.133333333333333, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.795185185185185, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.0, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9588832837562793, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0032616490671127, "Position_Factor": 0.985038993166415, "Input_GP": 4, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1191.0, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.894372357486514, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.437908496732026, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.8167605024285136, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0032616490671127, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 7.703281027104137, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 0.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five saved meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. Dated 2024–2026 regular-season appearances.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020668", "date": "20260106", "team": "COL", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 14.816666666666666 } ], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "NHL.com projected lineup", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 74, "fitPct": -6.10798325238288, "index": 93.89201674761712, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 2.7027027027027026, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.515281930842562, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 10.27027027027027, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.609652563126957, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 19 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 59.5945945945946, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.85621916135625, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 27 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 21.486486486486488, "opponentDeltaPct": -12.897287560223589, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 12 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 5.405405405405405, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.418201733515886, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 10 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.5405405405405406, "opponentDeltaPct": -11.722552252061064, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 14, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -6.10798325238288, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October23 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported unit only. Expected PP minutes retain measured current-season deployment; no guessed transfer.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476883", "goalieName": "Andrei Vasilevskiy", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8484149", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "window": "2021–22 through October21, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked attempts", "coverageNote": "Observed saved encounters only; missing is unavailable, not zero. Not independently established as complete career coverage." }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476883", "goalieName": "Andrei Vasilevskiy", "opponent": "COL", "games": 5, "availableGames": 13, "shotsAgainst": 157.0, "goalsAgainst": 12.0, "savePct": 0.9235668789808917, "gaa": 2.4254674077817078, "gsax": 7.298, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020668", "date": "20260106", "goalieTeam": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "shotsAgainst": 33.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.223 }, { "gameId": "2025020209", "date": "20251104", "goalieTeam": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "shotsAgainst": 33.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3420.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.409 }, { "gameId": "2024020334", "date": "20241125", "goalieTeam": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "shotsAgainst": 25.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.459 }, { "gameId": "2024020157", "date": "20241030", "goalieTeam": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "shotsAgainst": 35.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.364 }, { "gameId": "2023020842", "date": "20240215", "goalieTeam": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "shotsAgainst": 31.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3591.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.843 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "coverageNote": "Last five observed goalie/team regular-season appearances. Historical coverage is not independently established as career-complete." }, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.6374999999999998, "attemptProjection": 0.704000980624364, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261021", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 6.0, "sog": 3.0, "seconds": 1952.0, "expectedMinutes": 8.133333333333333, "projectedAttempts": 1.4999999999999998, "onNet": 0.5050425721838844, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9399951775173531, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9886177218479464 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 0.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.0, "projectedAttempts": 0, "onNet": 0.5294117647058824, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9635919869864824, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0126481883452998 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.6707504903121819, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.6707504903121819, "baseline": 1.1071428571428572, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 56.0, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.845307437044452, "adjustedSOG": 0.845307437044452, "reductionPct": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.6707504903121819, "afterPlayerForm": 0.6707504903121819, "afterRecentDefense": 0.6707504903121819, "afterRecentZones": 0.6707504903121819, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.6707504903121819, "adjusted": 0.6707504903121819, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.8167605024285136, "newChartFactor": 0.8167605024285136, "playerRecentAttempts": 6.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 32.53333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.1463936017832808, "defenseRecentMinutes": 244.35, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.0, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.04528859527121, "defenseRecentMinutes": 23.966666666666665, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.845307437044452, "adjustedSOG": 0.845307437044452, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.09230769230769231, "goalHistoryGoals": 6.0, "goalHistoryShots": 65.0, "goalExpected": 0.08089045685102718, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.08089045685102718, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.07770528302124168, "goalProbability": 0.07770528302124168, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12851820823158233, "modelSOG": 0.845307437044452, "historyGames": 60, "seasonGames": { "2025": 56, "2026": 4 }, "historyGoals": 6.0, "historyShots": 65.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.09230769230769231, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.11425345953429233, "goalieFactor": 0.9911791106382869, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8483466", "name": "Kevin Korchinski", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "MTL", "position": "D", "currentGP": 1, "currentSOG": 2.0, "priorSOG": 0.5384615384615384, "currentTOI": 11.35, "currentFiveTOI": 10.533333333333333, "ppShare": 0.09448818897637795, "rate": 0.5847002444224321, "fifty": 0.7401694825999676, "inputs": { "Player": "Kevin Korchinski", "Player_ID": "8483466", "Team": "CHI", "Opponent": "MTL", "Position": "D", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 0.658353523610899, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 0.8365457514327845, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 1, "Prior_GP": 13, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.69620253164557, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 2.4133307795441485, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 11.38948717948718, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 10.533333333333333, "Current_PP_Share": 0.09448818897637795, "Prior_PP_Share": 0, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 12.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 127.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 1, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.173148148148148, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.3421609798775153, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.48880139982502185, "Other_State_SOG": 0.1, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9555676582468344, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 0.5384615384615384, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Not on projected lineup", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "PP assignment pending", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-23", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:35:35.615148+00:00", "priorGP": 13.0, "currentTotalSOG": 2.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.2, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.00 SOG/game in 1 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 1 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Not listed on latest projected chart; October 23 dressing status unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.038, "currentIXG": 0.038, "priorTOI": 13.637179487179488, "priorPPTOI": 0.0, "deploymentChange": -2.287179487179488, "ppTOIChange": 0.2, "h2hLog": [], "h2hGames": 0, "h2hAvailableGames": 0, "h2hSOG": null, "opponentDefense": { "team": "MTL", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 237.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 26.333333333333332, "mostAllowedRank": 20, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.983070773571598, "pkSogAllowed60": 45.93967517401392, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 38.666666666666664, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 76.0, "D": 64.0, "R": 52.0, "L": 45.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 8.444444444444445, "L": 5.0, "R": 5.777777777777778, "D": 7.111111111111111 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 25.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 3, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27.333333333333332, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 26.333333333333332, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.111111111111111, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8484170", "team": "MTL", "name": "Jacob Fowler", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-23T17:12:10.576Z", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-23", "games": 4, "savePct": 0.9, "gaa": 2.163895011019836, "gsax": 2.1389999999999993, "goalsAllowed": 9.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 11.139, "shotsAgainst": 90.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9828963086689823, "factor": 0.9828963086689823, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter for October 23; Daily Faceoff confirmation.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.055024641250040626, "goalHistoryGoals": 1.0, "goalHistoryShots": 23.0, "goalExpected": 0.06514558252521505, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.06403135259012442, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.06306894734046259, "goalProbability": 0.0620244088945379, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.10445384459246906, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 1, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.1839347071648003, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.69620253164557, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 10.533333333333333, "Current_PP_Share": 0.09448818897637795, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.173148148148148, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.48880139982502185, "Remaining_State_SOG": 1.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9711545151193198, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9819199317155711, "Position_Factor": 1.0001333630485962, "Input_GP": 1, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 12.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 127.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 2.4133307795441485, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 13.387179487179488, "Prior_PP_Share": 0, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9848286195916839, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.34640522875817, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.8749309089791214, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.8616569993280053, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9819199317155711, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.69620253164557, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [], "h2hWindow": "Last five saved meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. Dated 2024–2026 regular-season appearances.", "h2hFullLog": [], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "NHL.com projected lineup", "isHome": true, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 11, "fitPct": -4.168969700695953, "index": 95.83103029930405, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 85.45454545454545, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.711511602468903, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -5.805766108288097, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 3.6363636363636367, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.5231164238779513, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 10.909090909090912, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.4830868449991215, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.49406869911976514, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.365981626756792, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -4.168969700695953, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October23 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported unit only. Expected PP minutes retain measured current-season deployment; no guessed transfer.", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8484170", "goalieName": "Jacob Fowler", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8483466", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "window": "2021–22 through October21, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked attempts", "coverageNote": "Observed saved encounters only; missing is unavailable, not zero. Not independently established as complete career coverage." }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8484170", "goalieName": "Jacob Fowler", "opponent": "CHI", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "coverageNote": "Last five observed goalie/team regular-season appearances. Historical coverage is not independently established as career-complete." }, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.8616569993280052, "attemptProjection": 1.384137232057736, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261021", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 1.0, "sog": 1.0, "seconds": 632.0, "expectedMinutes": 10.533333333333333, "projectedAttempts": 0.9999999999999999, "onNet": 0.40724368312653836, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.916154770019487, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0295873524263528 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 12.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.48880139982502185, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.425764192139738, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9091960351585663, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0070808959552022 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.6228971156928708, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 1.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.6228971156928707, "baseline": 0.5384615384615384, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 13.0, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.1891228848003377, "adjustedSOG": 1.1839347071648003, "reductionPct": 0.4363029003859875, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.6228971156928708, "afterPlayerForm": 0.6228971156928708, "afterRecentDefense": 0.6142501529669748, "afterRecentZones": 0.6228971156928708, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.6142501529669748, "adjusted": 0.6142501529669748, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.985325749098595, "oldChartFactor": 0.8749309089791214, "newChartFactor": 0.8749309089791214, "playerRecentAttempts": 1.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 10.533333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9310963862455485, "defenseRecentMinutes": 244.7, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9722388488519644, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.2, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8240542632130013, "defenseRecentMinutes": 33.28333333333333, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.1839347071648003, "adjustedSOG": 1.1839347071648003, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.0, "goalHistoryGoals": 0.0, "goalHistoryShots": 9.0, "goalExpected": 0.0, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.0, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.0, "goalProbability": 0.0, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05768030873754997, "modelSOG": 1.1839347071648003, "historyGames": 30, "seasonGames": { "2024": 16, "2025": 13, "2026": 1 }, "historyGoals": 1.0, "historyShots": 23.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.043478260869565216, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.055024641250040626, "goalieFactor": 0.9828963086689823, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8481540", "name": "Cole Caufield", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "CHI", "position": "L", "currentGP": 9, "currentSOG": 3.5555555555555554, "priorSOG": 3.185185185185185, "currentTOI": 19.675925925925927, "currentFiveTOI": 14.49074074074074, "ppShare": 0.7175538935327761, "rate": 3.563814635107956, "fifty": 3.638858544259312, "inputs": { "Player": "Cole Caufield", "Player_ID": "8481540", "Team": "MTL", "Opponent": "CHI", "Position": "R", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 2.790107550696841, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 2.865550180319173, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 9, "Prior_GP": 81, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 9.201277955271566, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 8.821694834704607, "Current_PP_SOG60": 13.243408951563458, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 13.186813186813186, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 14.299938271604937, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 14.49074074074074, "Current_PP_Share": 0.7175538935327761, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.6739298871063579, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1631.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2273.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 5, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.349074074074074, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 3.0637778245073917, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 3.120695035114305, "Other_State_SOG": 0.4444444444444444, "Environment_Proxy": 1.1241623654244617, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 3.185185185185185, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 1", "ppUnit": "PP1 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-23", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:35:35.615148+00:00", "priorGP": 81.0, "currentTotalSOG": 32.0, "currentPPTOI": 3.0203703703703706, "volumeNote": "Observed 3.56 SOG/game in 9 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 9 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 23 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 3.71, "currentIXG": 0.4122222222222222, "priorTOI": 18.183539094650204, "priorPPTOI": 3.201851851851852, "deploymentChange": 1.4923868312757236, "ppTOIChange": -0.18148148148148158, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020536", "date": "20251218", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 16.266666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020031", "date": "20251011", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "toi": 19.966666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2024021285", "date": "20250414", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 22.55 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 2.6666666666666665, "opponentDefense": { "team": "CHI", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 275.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 30.555555555555557, "mostAllowedRank": 4, "fiveSogAllowed60": 29.037678778147054, "pkSogAllowed60": 51.98019801980198, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 47.0, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 88.0, "D": 70.0, "R": 50.0, "L": 67.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.777777777777779, "L": 7.444444444444445, "R": 5.555555555555555, "D": 7.777777777777778 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 30.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.8, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 30.555555555555557, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.444444444444445, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8481519", "team": "CHI", "name": "Spencer Knight", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-23T17:38:57.370Z", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-23", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.8878923766816144, "gaa": 3.589375448671931, "gsax": -1.0060000000000002, "goalsAllowed": 25.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 23.994, "shotsAgainst": 223.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0134476231189056, "factor": 1.0134476231189056, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter for October 23; Daily Faceoff confirmation.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.16956594929334487, "goalHistoryGoals": 94.0, "goalHistoryShots": 530.0, "goalExpected": 0.5909056645959835, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.5988519412722967, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.44617452259299967, "goalProbability": 0.4505579341013152, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.438341150831556, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 9, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 3.4848132367290994, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 9.201277955271566, "Current_PP_SOG60": 13.243408951563458, "Current_5v5_Min": 14.49074074074074, "Current_PP_Share": 0.7175538935327761, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.349074074074074, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 3.120695035114305, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.6666666666666666, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0652555848758556, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0415262503506049, "Position_Factor": 1.0368080348179562, "Input_GP": 9, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1631.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2273.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 8.821694834704607, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 13.186813186813186, "Prior_5v5_Min": 13.854732510288066, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.6739298871063579, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.15, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.062091503267974, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.2043195349243376, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.8060677685206286, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.85, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 9.01723883895683, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 14.467515070328199, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 4.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 3.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five saved meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. Dated 2024–2026 regular-season appearances.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020536", "date": "20251218", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 16.266666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020031", "date": "20251011", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "toi": 19.966666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2024021285", "date": "20250414", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 22.55 }, { "gameId": "2024020616", "date": "20250103", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 7.0, "goals": 1.0, "toi": 19.05 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Cole Caufield", "Oliver Kapanen", "Juraj Slafkovsky" ], "lineupSource": "NHL.com projected lineup", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "rosterPosition": "L", "projectedPosition": "L", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:35:35.615148+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/montreal-canadiens/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-22T16:05:24.999Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 33, "priorAttempts": 255, "fitPct": 6.810651164144588, "index": 106.81065116414459, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 12.228163992869876, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.6823628774928636, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 20 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 18.595365418894833, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.333228225851869, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 49 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 24.64884135472371, "opponentDeltaPct": 17.724165752730244, "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 76 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 15.522281639928698, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.874621784366013, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 41 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 22.702317290552585, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.336952686487635, "currentAttempts": 8, "priorAttempts": 52 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 6.303030303030304, "opponentDeltaPct": -11.504840448330498, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 17 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 86, "fitPct": -6.46440771597905, "index": 93.53559228402095, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 1.3953488372093026, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.4028975883336443, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 2.3255813953488373, "opponentDeltaPct": 13.01574130857064, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 42.7906976744186, "opponentDeltaPct": 8.387003790885572, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 49 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 49.76744186046511, "opponentDeltaPct": -19.944089475898465, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 21 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 2.790697674418605, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.7605264681782984, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.9302325581395349, "opponentDeltaPct": -44.57933713730726, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 6.810651164144588, "zonePPFit": -6.46440771597905, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October23 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported unit only. Expected PP minutes retain measured current-season deployment; no guessed transfer.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481519", "goalieName": "Spencer Knight", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8481540", "goals": 2, "sog": 14, "shootingPct": 0.14285714285714285, "gamesWithAttempts": 4, "recordedAttempts": 24, "log": [ { "goals": 0, "sog": 4, "attempts": 6, "gameId": "2025020536", "date": "20251218" }, { "goals": 1, "sog": 3, "attempts": 7, "gameId": "2025020031", "date": "20251011" }, { "goals": 1, "sog": 3, "attempts": 5, "gameId": "2024020566", "date": "20241228" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 4, "attempts": 6, "gameId": "2021021020", "date": "20220324" } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "window": "2021–22 through October21, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked attempts", "coverageNote": "Observed saved encounters only; missing is unavailable, not zero. Not independently established as complete career coverage." }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481519", "goalieName": "Spencer Knight", "opponent": "MTL", "games": 4, "availableGames": 4, "shotsAgainst": 118.0, "goalsAgainst": 13.0, "savePct": 0.8898305084745762, "gaa": 3.269526337851055, "gsax": 0.5030000000000001, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020536", "date": "20251218", "goalieTeam": "CHI", "opponent": "MTL", "shotsAgainst": 34.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3563.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.275 }, { "gameId": "2025020031", "date": "20251011", "goalieTeam": "CHI", "opponent": "MTL", "shotsAgainst": 28.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3585.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.45 }, { "gameId": "2024020566", "date": "20241228", "goalieTeam": "FLA", "opponent": "MTL", "shotsAgainst": 25.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3566.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.261 }, { "gameId": "2021021020", "date": "20220324", "goalieTeam": "FLA", "opponent": "MTL", "shotsAgainst": 31.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.517 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "coverageNote": "Last five observed goalie/team regular-season appearances. Historical coverage is not independently established as career-complete." }, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 3.807711296866598, "attemptProjection": 3.7985274561233466, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261021", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 39.0, "sog": 20.0, "seconds": 7825.0, "expectedMinutes": 14.49074074074074, "projectedAttempts": 4.333333333333334, "onNet": 0.5010289159187302, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0621717863909321, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0519965736844064 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 11.0, "sog": 6.0, "seconds": 1631.0, "expectedMinutes": 3.120695035114305, "projectedAttempts": 1.2628195727623797, "onNet": 0.5577947165083013, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.938442005242464, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.067787892452511 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 2.490786656531565, "ppAdjusted": 0.6456660532967404, "other": 0.6666666666666666 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 3.8031193764949722, "baseline": 3.185185185185185, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 81.0, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 3.5559456999710575, "adjustedSOG": 3.5559318742133668, "reductionPct": 0.00038880677201147407, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 2.490786656531565, "afterPlayerForm": 2.490786656531565, "afterRecentDefense": 2.490786656531565, "afterRecentZones": 2.4907636136020805, "afterDefenseAndZones": 2.4907636136020805, "adjusted": 2.4907636136020805, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.2043195349243376, "newChartFactor": 1.2042978167112002, "playerRecentAttempts": 24.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 74.4, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.0787151916184174, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.1957808652607136, "defenseRecentMinutes": 241.91666666666666, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.6456660532967404, "afterPlayerForm": 0.6456660532967404, "afterRecentDefense": 0.6456660532967403, "afterRecentZones": 0.6456660532967404, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.6456660532967404, "adjusted": 0.6456660532967404, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.8060677685206286, "newChartFactor": 0.7939371169141001, "playerRecentAttempts": 9.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 16.983333333333334, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.3095726648229102, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0243821773082225, "defenseRecentMinutes": 25.916666666666668, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 3.5559318742133668, "adjustedSOG": 3.4848132367290994, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.19655172413793104, "goalHistoryGoals": 57.0, "goalHistoryShots": 290.0, "goalExpected": 0.7004739110384604, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.7004739110384604, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.5036499777099406, "goalProbability": 0.5036499777099406, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1282654805480727, "modelSOG": 3.4848132367290994, "historyGames": 172, "seasonGames": { "2024": 82, "2025": 81, "2026": 9 }, "historyGoals": 94.0, "historyShots": 530.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.17735849056603772, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.16956594929334487, "goalieFactor": 1.0134476231189056, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 71.8548778121076, "btb": { "id": "8481540", "name": "Cole Caufield", "score": 71.8548778121076, "components": { "Goal model": 100.0, "SOG model": 97.10144927536231, "Unit attack": 60.0, "Opposing lines": 77.27272727272728, "Opposing pairs": 60.101010101010104, "PP": 50.714285714285715, "Shot quality": 95.65217391304348, "Goalie": 62.67605633802817, "Team H2H": 52.857142857142854, "Goalie H2H": 52.98295454545455 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": true, "weightedXGA60": 2.7567053963155796, "games": 6, "exactGames": 0, "shares": [ 0.35957265014008766, 0.23628675969897175, 0.21081796883192694, 0.1933226213290136 ], "score": 77.27272727272728 }, "pair": { "available": true, "weightedXGA60": 2.865617769343295, "games": 4, "exactGames": 0, "shares": [ 0.377381712887435, 0.3047097133776021, 0.27988051475806297, 0.038028058976899926 ], "score": 60.101010101010104 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.9222728841182053, "unitPlayers": [ "Cole Caufield", "Oliver Kapanen", "Juraj Slafkovsky" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": 14, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 5 } }, { "id": "8480069", "name": "Cale Makar", "team": "COL", "opponent": "TBL", "position": "D", "currentGP": 9, "currentSOG": 2.6666666666666665, "priorSOG": 2.6533333333333333, "currentTOI": 22.098148148148148, "currentFiveTOI": 15.688888888888888, "ppShare": 0.751985559566787, "rate": 2.249013428232047, "fifty": 2.3540260401642406, "inputs": { "Player": "Cale Makar", "Player_ID": "8480069", "Team": "COL", "Opponent": "TBL", "Position": "D", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 2.250919099180452, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 2.3275592154749467, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 9, "Prior_GP": 75, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 8.073654390934845, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.940074250928137, "Current_PP_SOG60": 8.641382621219394, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 9.7809475292919, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 16.315488888888886, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 15.688888888888888, "Current_PP_Share": 0.751985559566787, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.7166964809384163, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2083.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2770.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 5, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.795185185185185, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 3.555144714596569, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 3.605910014707849, "Other_State_SOG": 0.216, "Environment_Proxy": 0.8844868901771036, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 2.6533333333333333, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 1", "ppUnit": "PP1 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-23", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:35:35.615148+00:00", "priorGP": 75.0, "currentTotalSOG": 24.0, "currentPPTOI": 3.8574074074074076, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.67 SOG/game in 9 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 9 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 23 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.52, "currentIXG": 0.1688888888888889, "priorTOI": 24.847555555555555, "priorPPTOI": 3.9259999999999997, "deploymentChange": -2.749407407407407, "ppTOIChange": -0.0685925925925921, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020668", "date": "20260106", "team": "COL", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 26.066666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020209", "date": "20251104", "team": "COL", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 27.75 }, { "gameId": "2024020334", "date": "20241125", "team": "COL", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 24.55 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 1.3333333333333333, "opponentDefense": { "team": "TBL", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 218.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 24.22222222222222, "mostAllowedRank": 29, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.310572168589594, "pkSogAllowed60": 47.9002079002079, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 36.333333333333336, "positionUnassignedSOG": 1.0, "positionTotals": { "L": 36.0, "R": 49.0, "D": 66.0, "C": 66.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.333333333333333, "L": 4.0, "R": 5.444444444444445, "D": 7.333333333333333 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 24.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.25, "positionSourceDifference": 1.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 24.22222222222222, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.333333333333333, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8476883", "team": "TBL", "name": "Andrei Vasilevskiy", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-23T17:44:29.480Z", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-23", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.8975903614457832, "gaa": 2.4556616643929057, "gsax": 1.495000000000001, "goalsAllowed": 17.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 18.495, "shotsAgainst": 166.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9911791106382869, "factor": 0.9911791106382869, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter for October 23; Daily Faceoff confirmation.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.10317518517608117, "goalHistoryGoals": 53.0, "goalHistoryShots": 469.0, "goalExpected": 0.25429864129877516, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.2520555011190447, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.22453981697351244, "goalProbability": 0.2227983986867081, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.17414182868043526, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 9, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 2.4647267738340686, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 8.073654390934845, "Current_PP_SOG60": 8.641382621219394, "Current_5v5_Min": 15.688888888888888, "Current_PP_Share": 0.751985559566787, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.795185185185185, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 3.605910014707849, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9588832837562793, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0032616490671127, "Position_Factor": 1.0144938104754524, "Input_GP": 9, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2083.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2770.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.940074250928137, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 9.7809475292919, "Prior_5v5_Min": 17.777555555555555, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.7166964809384163, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9991571455328714, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.34640522875817, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.001191332515209, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.9197154802666482, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0003474739281482, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.922715269404869, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 7.685123415610407, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 9.150991357397052, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 4.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five saved meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. Dated 2024–2026 regular-season appearances.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020668", "date": "20260106", "team": "COL", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 26.066666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020209", "date": "20251104", "team": "COL", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 27.75 }, { "gameId": "2024020334", "date": "20241125", "team": "COL", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 24.55 }, { "gameId": "2024020157", "date": "20241030", "team": "COL", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "home", "sog": 6.0, "goals": 1.0, "toi": 25.5 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Devon Toews", "Cale Makar" ], "lineupSource": "NHL.com projected lineup", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:35:35.615148+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/colorado-avalanche/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-22T17:33:02.593Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 26, "priorAttempts": 204, "fitPct": 0.03971108384030231, "index": 100.0397110838403, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 52.89592760180996, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.515281930842562, "currentAttempts": 14, "priorAttempts": 105 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 5.444947209653092, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.609652563126957, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 16 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 13.152337858220209, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.85621916135625, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 20 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 5.641025641025641, "opponentDeltaPct": -12.897287560223589, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 17 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 20.361990950226243, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.418201733515886, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 45 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 2.5037707390648567, "opponentDeltaPct": -11.722552252061064, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 1 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 85, "fitPct": -2.6761506577783933, "index": 97.3238493422216, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 94.3529411764706, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.0484005739127014, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 73 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 2.8235294117647065, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.8060162233483652, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 0.4705882352941177, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.6036826641455946, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.4705882352941177, "opponentDeltaPct": -15.514716416172803, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 1.4117647058823533, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.241804509586572, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.4705882352941177, "opponentDeltaPct": 40.87182317476231, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 0.03971108384030231, "zonePPFit": -2.6761506577783933, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October23 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported unit only. Expected PP minutes retain measured current-season deployment; no guessed transfer.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476883", "goalieName": "Andrei Vasilevskiy", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8480069", "goals": 2, "sog": 19, "shootingPct": 0.10526315789473684, "gamesWithAttempts": 8, "recordedAttempts": 32, "log": [ { "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 6, "gameId": "2025020668", "date": "20260106" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2, "gameId": "2025020209", "date": "20251104" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 4, "gameId": "2024020334", "date": "20241125" }, { "goals": 1, "sog": 6, "attempts": 8, "gameId": "2024020157", "date": "20241030" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 3, "gameId": "2023020842", "date": "20240215" }, { "goals": 1, "sog": 3, "attempts": 4, "gameId": "2023020324", "date": "20231127" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 3, "gameId": "2021020477", "date": "20220210" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2, "gameId": "2021020068", "date": "20211023" } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "window": "2021–22 through October21, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked attempts", "coverageNote": "Observed saved encounters only; missing is unavailable, not zero. Not independently established as complete career coverage." }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476883", "goalieName": "Andrei Vasilevskiy", "opponent": "COL", "games": 5, "availableGames": 13, "shotsAgainst": 157.0, "goalsAgainst": 12.0, "savePct": 0.9235668789808917, "gaa": 2.4254674077817078, "gsax": 7.298, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020668", "date": "20260106", "goalieTeam": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "shotsAgainst": 33.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.223 }, { "gameId": "2025020209", "date": "20251104", "goalieTeam": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "shotsAgainst": 33.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3420.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.409 }, { "gameId": "2024020334", "date": "20241125", "goalieTeam": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "shotsAgainst": 25.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.459 }, { "gameId": "2024020157", "date": "20241030", "goalieTeam": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "shotsAgainst": 35.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.364 }, { "gameId": "2023020842", "date": "20240215", "goalieTeam": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "shotsAgainst": 31.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3591.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.843 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "coverageNote": "Last five observed goalie/team regular-season appearances. Historical coverage is not independently established as career-complete." }, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 2.5910422040041423, "attemptProjection": 2.119790153414653, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261021", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 36.0, "sog": 19.0, "seconds": 8472.0, "expectedMinutes": 15.688888888888888, "projectedAttempts": 4.0, "onNet": 0.4508073004587611, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9399951775173531, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9886177218479464 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 10.0, "sog": 5.0, "seconds": 2083.0, "expectedMinutes": 3.605910014707849, "projectedAttempts": 1.038668271159246, "onNet": 0.438136826783115, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9635919869864824, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0126481883452998 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.8937890774397284, "ppAdjusted": 0.46162710126966966, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 2.3554161787093975, "baseline": 2.6533333333333333, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 75.0, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 2.474583040558972, "adjustedSOG": 2.4647267738340686, "reductionPct": 0.3983000999908781, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.8937890774397284, "afterPlayerForm": 1.8937890774397284, "afterRecentDefense": 1.8840185944842016, "afterRecentZones": 1.891341091212273, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.881583237967201, "adjusted": 1.881583237967201, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9948407755267361, "oldChartFactor": 1.001191332515209, "newChartFactor": 0.9988702313176332, "playerRecentAttempts": 24.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 76.66666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.2278260869565216, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.975764559752153, "defenseRecentMinutes": 244.35, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.46162710126966966, "afterPlayerForm": 0.46162710126966966, "afterRecentDefense": 0.46162710126966966, "afterRecentZones": 0.4574058295340241, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.4574058295340241, "adjusted": 0.4574058295340241, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.9197154802666482, "newChartFactor": 0.9035118537312165, "playerRecentAttempts": 7.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 20.966666666666665, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.1590620031796501, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.04528859527121, "defenseRecentMinutes": 23.966666666666665, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 2.4647267738340686, "adjustedSOG": 2.4647267738340686, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.1031390134529148, "goalHistoryGoals": 23.0, "goalHistoryShots": 223.0, "goalExpected": 0.23196102623021111, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.23196102623021111, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.2070229719914191, "goalProbability": 0.2070229719914191, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05706680365190184, "modelSOG": 2.4647267738340686, "historyGames": 164, "seasonGames": { "2024": 80, "2025": 75, "2026": 9 }, "historyGoals": 53.0, "historyShots": 469.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.11300639658848614, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.10317518517608117, "goalieFactor": 0.9911791106382869, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 57.25728965869811, "btb": { "id": "8480069", "name": "Cale Makar", "score": 57.25728965869811, "components": { "Goal model": 78.26086956521739, "SOG model": 91.30434782608695, "Unit attack": 72.72727272727273, "Opposing lines": 19.23076923076923, "Opposing pairs": 24.825174825174827, "PP": 75.0, "Shot quality": 55.072463768115945, "Goalie": 11.971830985915492, "Team H2H": 51.97802197802198, "Goalie H2H": 55.63241106719367 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": true, "games": 8, "exactGames": 7, "individualGames": 1, "roleGames": 1, "exactMinutes": 81.6, "exactWeight": 0.576271186440678, "individualWeight": 0.12589535024887702, "venueGames": 3, "venueFallback": false, "shares": [ 0.25084542714541164, 0.23183158338837706, 0.1778730219016444, 0.14647179068840352, 0.19297817687616337 ], "units": [ { "unit": 2, "names": [ "Gage Goncalves", "Brayden Point", "Jake Guentzel" ], "share": 0.25084542714541164, "xGA60": 2.0340078043220755 }, { "unit": 1, "names": [ "Brandon Hagel", "Anthony Cirelli", "Nikita Kucherov" ], "share": 0.23183158338837706, "xGA60": 1.9481706788671902 }, { "unit": 3, "names": [ "Ilya Mikheyev", "Zemgus Girgensons", "Pontus Holmberg" ], "share": 0.1778730219016444, "xGA60": 2.125408163982028 }, { "unit": 4, "names": [ "Jeffrey Viel", "Conor Geekie", "Dominic James" ], "share": 0.14647179068840352, "xGA60": 2.3268473115300212 } ], "otherShare": 0.19297817687616337, "weightedXGA60": 2.1052276899067044, "score": 19.23076923076923 }, "pair": { "available": true, "games": 8, "exactGames": 7, "individualGames": 1, "roleGames": 1, "exactMinutes": 81.6, "exactWeight": 0.576271186440678, "individualWeight": 0.12589535024887702, "venueGames": 3, "venueFallback": false, "shares": [ 0.3869414311580886, 0.2679704869660672, 0.25679250654422026, 0.08829557533162398 ], "units": [ { "unit": 1, "names": [ "J.J. Moser", "John Carlson" ], "share": 0.3869414311580886, "xGA60": 2.1330165084190638 }, { "unit": 2, "names": [ "Ryan McDonagh", "Erik Cernak" ], "share": 0.2679704869660672, "xGA60": 2.0098658998691765 }, { "unit": 3, "names": [ "Victor Hedman", "Max Crozier" ], "share": 0.25679250654422026, "xGA60": 2.8833997473734136 } ], "otherShare": 0.08829557533162398, "weightedXGA60": 2.2985938124556995, "score": 24.825174825174827 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 3.2143232909545847, "unitPlayers": [ "Devon Toews", "Cale Makar" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": 19, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 23 } }, { "id": "8480995", "name": "Pontus Holmberg", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "position": "R", "currentGP": 9, "currentSOG": 1.6666666666666667, "priorSOG": 1.3, "currentTOI": 14.507407407407406, "currentFiveTOI": 13.070370370370371, "ppShare": 0.18767029972752045, "rate": 1.3653899844102602, "fifty": 1.4864098546411817, "inputs": { "Player": "Pontus Holmberg", "Player_ID": "8480995", "Team": "TBL", "Opponent": "COL", "Position": "R", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.2598974859230667, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.289283154032615, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 9, "Prior_GP": 70, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 6.630773590252196, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.808174467769454, "Current_PP_SOG60": 13.067150635208712, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 6.196213425129088, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 13.000973544973546, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 13.070370370370371, "Current_PP_Share": 0.18767029972752045, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.027307013320494306, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 551.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2936.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 5, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.612685185185185, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.6437524046152073, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.8656640112523969, "Other_State_SOG": 0.038571428571428576, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9914667421548949, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.3, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 3", "ppUnit": "PP2 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-23", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:35:35.615148+00:00", "priorGP": 70.0, "currentTotalSOG": 15.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.0203703703703704, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.67 SOG/game in 9 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 9 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 23 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 3.194, "currentIXG": 0.35488888888888886, "priorTOI": 13.348809523809523, "priorPPTOI": 0.13833333333333334, "deploymentChange": 1.1585978835978832, "ppTOIChange": 0.8820370370370371, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020668", "date": "20260106", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 14.45 }, { "gameId": "2025020209", "date": "20251104", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 13.216666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024021087", "date": "20250319", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 8.65 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 1.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "COL", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 273.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.3, "mostAllowedRank": 16, "fiveSogAllowed60": 27.02393375298751, "pkSogAllowed60": 47.51429828420589, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 40.2, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 100.0, "R": 60.0, "L": 45.0, "D": 68.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.0, "L": 4.5, "R": 6.0, "D": 6.8 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 29.0, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.8, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.3, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.0, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8478406", "team": "COL", "name": "Mackenzie Blackwood", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-23T16:26:32.640Z", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-23", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.8888888888888888, "gaa": 2.897734132893307, "gsax": -2.4450000000000003, "goalsAllowed": 20.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 17.555, "shotsAgainst": 180.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0252999843886221, "factor": 1.0252999843886221, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter for October 23; Daily Faceoff confirmation.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.11946161107921091, "goalHistoryGoals": 20.0, "goalHistoryShots": 175.0, "goalExpected": 0.17224621435251392, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.17660404088663179, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.15822810866952305, "goalProbability": 0.16188842325258607, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.36603145830630124, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 9, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.4418541052347214, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 6.630773590252196, "Current_PP_SOG60": 13.067150635208712, "Current_5v5_Min": 13.070370370370371, "Current_PP_Share": 0.18767029972752045, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.612685185185185, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.8656640112523969, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0289555868427727, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9996701327073623, "Position_Factor": 1.0071306809533955, "Input_GP": 9, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 551.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2936.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.808174467769454, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 6.196213425129088, "Prior_5v5_Min": 12.83904761904762, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.027307013320494306, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0573770491803278, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.382352941176471, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.9879352647530121, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.975688614485509, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0446200750257257, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9753667667237912, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 6.872414890232262, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 14.117647058823529, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five saved meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. Dated 2024–2026 regular-season appearances.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020668", "date": "20260106", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 14.45 }, { "gameId": "2025020209", "date": "20251104", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 13.216666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024021087", "date": "20250319", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 8.65 }, { "gameId": "2024021007", "date": "20250308", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 14.5 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Ilya Mikheyev", "Zemgus Girgensons", "Pontus Holmberg" ], "lineupSource": "NHL.com projected lineup", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "rosterPosition": "C", "projectedPosition": "R", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:35:35.615148+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/tampa-bay-lightning/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-22T18:13:31.663Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 18, "priorAttempts": 143, "fitPct": -0.40215784156626455, "index": 99.59784215843374, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 6.153846153846154, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.604370751696635, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 22 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 24.778554778554778, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.2025641924569896, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 29 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 41.21212121212121, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.26262818174886604, "currentAttempts": 8, "priorAttempts": 52 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 16.153846153846153, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.0950116912032684, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 22 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 6.41025641025641, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.044692588641311204, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 11 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 5.291375291375291, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.6551158457307906, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 7 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 2, "fitPct": -0.8103795171496984, "index": 99.1896204828503, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.125139957052596, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 20.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.208159137665604, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 80.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.03906538797926373, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.5428724091186723, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 15.136821787266058, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -37.289476773404765, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -0.40215784156626455, "zonePPFit": -0.8103795171496984, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October23 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported unit only. Expected PP minutes retain measured current-season deployment; no guessed transfer.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478406", "goalieName": "Mackenzie Blackwood", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8480995", "goals": 0, "sog": 6, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 3, "recordedAttempts": 9, "log": [ { "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 4, "gameId": "2024021007", "date": "20250308" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2, "gameId": "2023020627", "date": "20240109" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 3, "gameId": "2023020613", "date": "20240106" } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "window": "2021–22 through October21, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked attempts", "coverageNote": "Observed saved encounters only; missing is unavailable, not zero. 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Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Listed unavailable on latest report; not projected to dress.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.148, "currentIXG": 0.148, "priorTOI": 12.484408602150538, "priorPPTOI": 0.13709677419354838, "deploymentChange": -7.101075268817204, "ppTOIChange": -0.13709677419354838, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020512", "date": "20251214", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 10.033333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020122", "date": "20251023", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "toi": 13.833333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020665", "date": "20250110", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 13.9 }, { "gameId": "2024020430", "date": "20241207", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 14.5 }, { "gameId": "2024020164", "date": "20241031", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 14.016666666666667 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 5, "h2hSOG": 0.8, "opponentDefense": { "team": "MTL", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 237.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 26.333333333333332, "mostAllowedRank": 20, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.983070773571598, "pkSogAllowed60": 45.93967517401392, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 38.666666666666664, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 76.0, "D": 64.0, "R": 52.0, "L": 45.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 8.444444444444445, "L": 5.0, "R": 5.777777777777778, "D": 7.111111111111111 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 25.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 3, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27.333333333333332, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 26.333333333333332, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.0, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8484170", "team": "MTL", "name": "Jacob Fowler", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-23T17:12:10.576Z", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-23", "games": 4, "savePct": 0.9, "gaa": 2.163895011019836, "gsax": 2.1389999999999993, "goalsAllowed": 9.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 11.139, "shotsAgainst": 90.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9828963086689823, "factor": 0.9828963086689823, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter for October 23; Daily Faceoff confirmation.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.1371958733142623, "goalHistoryGoals": 22.0, "goalHistoryShots": 154.0, "goalExpected": 0.12384271143060793, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.1217245439207025, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.11648120263800044, "goalProbability": 0.11460777841432339, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.18734242236770476, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 1, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 0.9026708197478543, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 11.25, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 5.333333333333333, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.173148148148148, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.0, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9711545151193198, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9819199317155711, "Position_Factor": 1.0025538171453592, "Input_GP": 1, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 240.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.326923076923077, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 14.117647058823529, "Prior_5v5_Min": 11.853763440860215, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.0316798365624118, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9941897998708845, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.062091503267974, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.9671595519556259, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9615401614019781, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9819199317155711, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 11.25, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 0.3333333333333333 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five saved meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. Dated 2024–2026 regular-season appearances.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020512", "date": "20251214", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 10.033333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020122", "date": "20251023", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "toi": 13.833333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020665", "date": "20250110", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 13.9 }, { "gameId": "2024020430", "date": "20241207", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 14.5 }, { "gameId": "2024020164", "date": "20241031", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 14.016666666666667 } ], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "NHL.com projected lineup", "isHome": true, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 85, "fitPct": -1.094681601479138, "index": 98.90531839852086, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 3.294117647058824, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.711511602468903, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 41.294117647058826, "opponentDeltaPct": -5.805766108288097, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 24 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 45.529411764705884, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.5231164238779513, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 33 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 3.294117647058824, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.4830868449991215, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 5.176470588235295, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.49406869911976514, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 11 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 1.4117647058823533, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.365981626756792, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -1.094681601479138, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October23 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported unit only. Expected PP minutes retain measured current-season deployment; no guessed transfer.", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8484170", "goalieName": "Jacob Fowler", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8478233", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "window": "2021–22 through October21, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked attempts", "coverageNote": "Observed saved encounters only; missing is unavailable, not zero. Not independently established as complete career coverage." }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8484170", "goalieName": "Jacob Fowler", "opponent": "CHI", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "coverageNote": "Last five observed goalie/team regular-season appearances. Historical coverage is not independently established as career-complete." }, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.9615401614019781, "attemptProjection": 0.9284439440117682, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261021", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 2.0, "sog": 1.0, "seconds": 320.0, "expectedMinutes": 5.333333333333333, "projectedAttempts": 2.0, "onNet": 0.4921456445532112, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.916154770019487, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0295873524263528 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 0.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.0, "projectedAttempts": 0, "onNet": 0.5605095541401274, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9091960351585663, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0070808959552022 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.9449920527068731, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.9449920527068731, "baseline": 0.9354838709677419, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 62.0, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.9411887800112206, "adjustedSOG": 0.9026708197478543, "reductionPct": 4.0924797534143025, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.9449920527068731, "afterPlayerForm": 0.9449920527068731, "afterRecentDefense": 0.8836539262570222, "afterRecentZones": 0.941935160045281, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.8807954522679292, "adjusted": 0.8807954522679292, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9350913838120104, "oldChartFactor": 0.9671595519556259, "newChartFactor": 0.9610100367182152, "playerRecentAttempts": 2.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 5.333333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.6952186350633428, "defenseRecentMinutes": 244.7, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9722388488519644, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.0, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8240542632130013, "defenseRecentMinutes": 33.28333333333333, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.9026708197478543, "adjustedSOG": 0.9026708197478543, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.13559322033898305, "goalHistoryGoals": 8.0, "goalHistoryShots": 59.0, "goalExpected": 0.0921278745461443, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.0921278745461443, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.08801147802993552, "goalProbability": 0.08801147802993552, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12847751821822626, "modelSOG": 0.9026708197478543, "historyGames": 144, "seasonGames": { "2024": 81, "2025": 62, "2026": 1 }, "historyGoals": 22.0, "historyShots": 154.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.14285714285714285, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.1371958733142623, "goalieFactor": 0.9828963086689823, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8484258", "name": "Sam Malinski", "team": "COL", "opponent": "TBL", "position": "D", "currentGP": 9, "currentSOG": 1.1111111111111112, "priorSOG": 2.0, "currentTOI": 16.433333333333334, "currentFiveTOI": 15.940740740740742, "ppShare": 0.037504381352961795, "rate": 1.7171121988895433, "fifty": 1.472024816393349, "inputs": { "Player": "Sam Malinski", "Player_ID": "8484258", "Team": "COL", "Opponent": "TBL", "Position": "D", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.6725696736256468, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.4012139027610728, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 9, "Prior_GP": 82, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.182156133828996, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 7.102453643004308, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 3.3426183844011144, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 16.041750225835592, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 15.940740740740742, "Current_PP_Share": 0.037504381352961795, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.03996092911808883, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 107.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2853.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 4, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.795185185185185, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.18337433427826896, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.17984045384325792, "Other_State_SOG": 0.054878048780487805, "Environment_Proxy": 0.8844868901771036, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 2.0, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 2", "ppUnit": "PP assignment pending", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-23", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:35:35.615148+00:00", "priorGP": 82.0, "currentTotalSOG": 10.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.19814814814814816, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.11 SOG/game in 9 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 9 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 23 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.549, "currentIXG": 0.061000000000000006, "priorTOI": 17.616260162601627, "priorPPTOI": 0.21890243902439024, "deploymentChange": -1.1829268292682933, "ppTOIChange": -0.020754290876242087, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020668", "date": "20260106", "team": "COL", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 18.85 }, { "gameId": "2025020209", "date": "20251104", "team": "COL", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 14.233333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020334", "date": "20241125", "team": "COL", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 14.333333333333334 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 1.3333333333333333, "opponentDefense": { "team": "TBL", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 218.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 24.22222222222222, "mostAllowedRank": 29, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.310572168589594, "pkSogAllowed60": 47.9002079002079, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 36.333333333333336, "positionUnassignedSOG": 1.0, "positionTotals": { "L": 36.0, "R": 49.0, "D": 66.0, "C": 66.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.333333333333333, "L": 4.0, "R": 5.444444444444445, "D": 7.333333333333333 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 24.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.25, "positionSourceDifference": 1.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 24.22222222222222, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.333333333333333, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8476883", "team": "TBL", "name": "Andrei Vasilevskiy", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-23T17:44:29.480Z", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-23", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.8975903614457832, "gaa": 2.4556616643929057, "gsax": 1.495000000000001, "goalsAllowed": 17.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 18.495, "shotsAgainst": 166.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9911791106382869, "factor": 0.9911791106382869, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter for October 23; Daily Faceoff confirmation.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.04826684817196315, "goalHistoryGoals": 13.0, "goalHistoryShots": 289.0, "goalExpected": 0.07179762618830389, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.07116430727126323, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.06928077004820178, "goalProbability": 0.06869114126159548, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.05896287866063027, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 9, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.487514285840796, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.182156133828996, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 15.940740740740742, "Current_PP_Share": 0.037504381352961795, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.795185185185185, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.17984045384325792, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9588832837562793, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0032616490671127, "Position_Factor": 1.0144938104754524, "Input_GP": 9, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 107.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2853.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 7.102453643004308, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 3.3426183844011144, "Prior_5v5_Min": 16.277439024390244, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.03996092911808883, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9991571455328714, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.34640522875817, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.064980603375812, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0640829797168514, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0032616490671127, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 4.720692368214005, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five saved meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. Dated 2024–2026 regular-season appearances.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020668", "date": "20260106", "team": "COL", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 18.85 }, { "gameId": "2025020209", "date": "20251104", "team": "COL", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 14.233333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020334", "date": "20241125", "team": "COL", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 14.333333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020157", "date": "20241030", "team": "COL", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 13.783333333333333 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Brett Kulak", "Sam Malinski" ], "lineupSource": "NHL.com projected lineup", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:35:35.615148+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 18, "priorAttempts": 241, "fitPct": 2.1660201125270646, "index": 102.16602011252706, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 74.38450899031812, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.515281930842562, "currentAttempts": 14, "priorAttempts": 167 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 11.327800829875518, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.609652563126957, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 8 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 4.661134163208852, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.85621916135625, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 8 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 2.6556016597510377, "opponentDeltaPct": -12.897287560223589, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 16 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 6.4730290456431545, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.418201733515886, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 39 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.49792531120331956, "opponentDeltaPct": -11.722552252061064, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 5, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 2.1660201125270646, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October23 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported unit only. Expected PP minutes retain measured current-season deployment; no guessed transfer.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476883", "goalieName": "Andrei Vasilevskiy", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8484258", "goals": 0, "sog": 5, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 3, "recordedAttempts": 6, "log": [ { "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 4, "gameId": "2025020668", "date": "20260106" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1, "gameId": "2024020334", "date": "20241125" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1, "gameId": "2024020157", "date": "20241030" } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "window": "2021–22 through October21, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked attempts", "coverageNote": "Observed saved encounters only; missing is unavailable, not zero. Not independently established as complete career coverage." }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476883", "goalieName": "Andrei Vasilevskiy", "opponent": "COL", "games": 5, "availableGames": 13, "shotsAgainst": 157.0, "goalsAgainst": 12.0, "savePct": 0.9235668789808917, "gaa": 2.4254674077817078, "gsax": 7.298, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020668", "date": "20260106", "goalieTeam": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "shotsAgainst": 33.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.223 }, { "gameId": "2025020209", "date": "20251104", "goalieTeam": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "shotsAgainst": 33.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3420.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.409 }, { "gameId": "2024020334", "date": "20241125", "goalieTeam": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "shotsAgainst": 25.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.459 }, { "gameId": "2024020157", "date": "20241030", "goalieTeam": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "shotsAgainst": 35.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.364 }, { "gameId": "2023020842", "date": "20240215", "goalieTeam": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "shotsAgainst": 31.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3591.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.843 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "coverageNote": "Last five observed goalie/team regular-season appearances. Historical coverage is not independently established as career-complete." }, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.1823144219076125, "attemptProjection": 1.1283735612417323, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261021", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 29.0, "sog": 10.0, "seconds": 8608.0, "expectedMinutes": 15.940740740740742, "projectedAttempts": 3.2222222222222223, "onNet": 0.37682820049941085, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9399951775173531, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9886177218479464 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 107.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.17984045384325792, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.425764192139738, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9635919869864824, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0126481883452998 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.1553439915746724, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.1553439915746724, "baseline": 2.0, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 82.0, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.4932063949448033, "adjustedSOG": 1.487514285840796, "reductionPct": 0.38120042368408047, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.1553439915746724, "afterPlayerForm": 1.1553439915746724, "afterRecentDefense": 1.1493833125783017, "afterRecentZones": 1.151799535419423, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.145857143067993, "adjusted": 1.145857143067993, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9948407755267361, "oldChartFactor": 1.064980603375812, "newChartFactor": 1.0585952003308825, "playerRecentAttempts": 18.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 78.0, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.1416445623342175, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.975764559752153, "defenseRecentMinutes": 244.35, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 1.7, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.04528859527121, "defenseRecentMinutes": 23.966666666666665, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.487514285840796, "adjustedSOG": 1.487514285840796, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.04597701149425287, "goalHistoryGoals": 8.0, "goalHistoryShots": 174.0, "goalExpected": 0.07894768730526636, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.07894768730526636, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.0759117352720298, "goalProbability": 0.0759117352720298, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.057758039388936686, "modelSOG": 1.487514285840796, "historyGames": 167, "seasonGames": { "2024": 76, "2025": 82, "2026": 9 }, "historyGoals": 13.0, "historyShots": 289.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.04498269896193772, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.04826684817196315, "goalieFactor": 0.9911791106382869, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 34.34626030596915, "btb": { "id": "8484258", "name": "Sam Malinski", "score": 34.34626030596915, "components": { "Goal model": 20.28985507246377, "SOG model": 56.52173913043478, "Unit attack": 63.63636363636363, "Opposing lines": 26.923076923076923, "Opposing pairs": 19.23076923076923, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 11.594202898550725, "Goalie": 11.971830985915492, "Team H2H": 44.065934065934066, "Goalie H2H": 48.243801652892564 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": true, "games": 8, "exactGames": 6, "individualGames": 2, "roleGames": 1, "exactMinutes": 55.016666666666666, "exactWeight": 0.47833647297493115, "individualWeight": 0.2777610592837797, "venueGames": 3, "venueFallback": false, "shares": [ 0.22030576638630836, 0.22272597152328777, 0.21080736060830263, 0.17090332632356653, 0.17525757515853457 ], "units": [ { "unit": 2, "names": [ "Gage Goncalves", "Brayden Point", "Jake Guentzel" ], "share": 0.22030576638630836, "xGA60": 2.0340078043220755 }, { "unit": 1, "names": [ "Brandon Hagel", "Anthony Cirelli", "Nikita Kucherov" ], "share": 0.22272597152328777, "xGA60": 1.9481706788671902 }, { "unit": 3, "names": [ "Ilya Mikheyev", "Zemgus Girgensons", "Pontus Holmberg" ], "share": 0.21080736060830263, "xGA60": 2.125408163982028 }, { "unit": 4, "names": [ "Jeffrey Viel", "Conor Geekie", "Dominic James" ], "share": 0.17090332632356653, "xGA60": 2.3268473115300212 } ], "otherShare": 0.17525757515853457, "weightedXGA60": 2.113238378623648, "score": 26.923076923076923 }, "pair": { "available": true, "games": 8, "exactGames": 6, "individualGames": 2, "roleGames": 1, "exactMinutes": 55.016666666666666, "exactWeight": 0.47833647297493115, "individualWeight": 0.2777610592837797, "venueGames": 3, "venueFallback": false, "shares": [ 0.3346065940191025, 0.32267372911278513, 0.2494180354279621, 0.09330164144015024 ], "units": [ { "unit": 1, "names": [ "J.J. Moser", "John Carlson" ], "share": 0.3346065940191025, "xGA60": 2.1330165084190638 }, { "unit": 2, "names": [ "Ryan McDonagh", "Erik Cernak" ], "share": 0.32267372911278513, "xGA60": 2.0098658998691765 }, { "unit": 3, "names": [ "Victor Hedman", "Max Crozier" ], "share": 0.2494180354279621, "xGA60": 2.8833997473734136 } ], "otherShare": 0.09330164144015024, "weightedXGA60": 2.2866570689389865, "score": 19.23076923076923 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 3.1702859656649403, "unitPlayers": [ "Brett Kulak", "Sam Malinski" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": 5, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 65 } }, { "id": "8481618", "name": "Alex Newhook", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "CHI", "position": "C", "currentGP": 9, "currentSOG": 1.2222222222222223, "priorSOG": 1.4523809523809523, "currentTOI": 16.264814814814812, "currentFiveTOI": 11.507407407407406, "ppShare": 0.2644082710074791, "rate": 1.5365683949747604, "fifty": 1.3653055689925615, "inputs": { "Player": "Alex Newhook", "Player_ID": "8481618", "Team": "MTL", "Opponent": "CHI", "Position": "C", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.1872934485732596, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.0624219918077809, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 9, "Prior_GP": 42, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.055358867074348, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.011268725971099, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 14.291385470424771, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 11.647089947089945, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 11.507407407407406, "Current_PP_Share": 0.2644082710074791, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.2103977591036415, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 601.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2273.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 5, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.349074074074074, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 1.0794624412948444, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 1.149931156409379, "Other_State_SOG": 0.19444444444444445, "Environment_Proxy": 1.1241623654244617, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.4523809523809523, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 2", "ppUnit": "PP2 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-23", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:35:35.615148+00:00", "priorGP": 42.0, "currentTotalSOG": 11.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.1129629629629632, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.22 SOG/game in 9 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 9 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 23 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.849, "currentIXG": 0.20544444444444443, "priorTOI": 14.484523809523811, "priorPPTOI": 0.9996031746031746, "deploymentChange": 1.7802910052910015, "ppTOIChange": 0.11335978835978855, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020031", "date": "20251011", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 13.25 }, { "gameId": "2024021285", "date": "20250414", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "toi": 15.633333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020616", "date": "20250103", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 15.733333333333333 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 3, "h2hSOG": 1.6666666666666667, "opponentDefense": { "team": "CHI", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 275.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 30.555555555555557, "mostAllowedRank": 4, "fiveSogAllowed60": 29.037678778147054, "pkSogAllowed60": 51.98019801980198, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 47.0, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 88.0, "D": 70.0, "R": 50.0, "L": 67.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.777777777777779, "L": 7.444444444444445, "R": 5.555555555555555, "D": 7.777777777777778 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 30.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.8, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 30.555555555555557, "oppPosSogAllowed": 9.777777777777779, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8481519", "team": "CHI", "name": "Spencer Knight", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-23T17:38:57.370Z", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-23", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.8878923766816144, "gaa": 3.589375448671931, "gsax": -1.0060000000000002, "goalsAllowed": 25.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 23.994, "shotsAgainst": 223.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0134476231189056, "factor": 1.0134476231189056, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter for October 23; Daily Faceoff confirmation.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.14429528590719495, "goalHistoryGoals": 29.0, "goalHistoryShots": 190.0, "goalExpected": 0.20569663099589117, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.2084627617663525, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.18591999453378008, "goalProbability": 0.18816873469798712, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.2248740164207036, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 9, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.425525648344376, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.055358867074348, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 11.507407407407406, "Current_PP_Share": 0.2644082710074791, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.349074074074074, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.149931156409379, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.4444444444444444, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0652555848758556, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0415262503506049, "Position_Factor": 0.9909330806239977, "Input_GP": 9, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 601.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2273.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.011268725971099, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 14.291385470424771, "Prior_5v5_Min": 11.973015873015873, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.2103977591036415, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0170578801574575, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.437908496732026, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.25, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0415262503506049, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 3.9830352203577357, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 1.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five saved meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. Dated 2024–2026 regular-season appearances.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020031", "date": "20251011", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 13.25 }, { "gameId": "2024021285", "date": "20250414", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "toi": 15.633333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020616", "date": "20250103", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 15.733333333333333 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Chris Kreider", "Alex Newhook", "Josh Anderson" ], "lineupSource": "NHL.com projected lineup", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "rosterPosition": "C", "projectedPosition": "C", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:35:35.615148+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/montreal-canadiens/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-22T16:05:24.999Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 16, "priorAttempts": 68, "fitPct": 10.440970780668323, "index": 110.44097078066832, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 11.985294117647062, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.6823628774928636, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 14 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 13.970588235294118, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.333228225851869, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 11 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 44.11764705882353, "opponentDeltaPct": 17.724165752730244, "currentAttempts": 8, "priorAttempts": 24 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 17.13235294117647, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.874621784366013, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 10 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 12.205882352941176, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.336952686487635, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 8 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.5882352941176471, "opponentDeltaPct": -11.504840448330498, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 11, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 10.440970780668323, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October23 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported unit only. Expected PP minutes retain measured current-season deployment; no guessed transfer.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481519", "goalieName": "Spencer Knight", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8481618", "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 2, "recordedAttempts": 3, "log": [ { "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1, "gameId": "2025020031", "date": "20251011" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2, "gameId": "2024020566", "date": "20241228" } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "window": "2021–22 through October21, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked attempts", "coverageNote": "Observed saved encounters only; missing is unavailable, not zero. Not independently established as complete career coverage." }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481519", "goalieName": "Spencer Knight", "opponent": "MTL", "games": 4, "availableGames": 4, "shotsAgainst": 118.0, "goalsAgainst": 13.0, "savePct": 0.8898305084745762, "gaa": 3.269526337851055, "gsax": 0.5030000000000001, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020536", "date": "20251218", "goalieTeam": "CHI", "opponent": "MTL", "shotsAgainst": 34.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3563.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.275 }, { "gameId": "2025020031", "date": "20251011", "goalieTeam": "CHI", "opponent": "MTL", "shotsAgainst": 28.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3585.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.45 }, { "gameId": "2024020566", "date": "20241228", "goalieTeam": "FLA", "opponent": "MTL", "shotsAgainst": 25.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3566.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.261 }, { "gameId": "2021021020", "date": "20220324", "goalieTeam": "FLA", "opponent": "MTL", "shotsAgainst": 31.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.517 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "coverageNote": "Last five observed goalie/team regular-season appearances. Historical coverage is not independently established as career-complete." }, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.3388888888888888, "attemptProjection": 1.6691236997332626, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261021", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 22.0, "sog": 7.0, "seconds": 6214.0, "expectedMinutes": 11.507407407407406, "projectedAttempts": 2.444444444444444, "onNet": 0.44836644503191003, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0621717863909321, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0519965736844064 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 601.0, "expectedMinutes": 1.149931156409379, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.5294117647058824, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.938442005242464, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.067787892452511 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.0595618498666313, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.4444444444444444 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.5040062943110757, "baseline": 1.4523809523809523, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 42.0, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.4833561575390264, "adjustedSOG": 1.4546180085146694, "reductionPct": 1.9373734944435284, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.0595618498666313, "afterPlayerForm": 1.0285942474089083, "afterRecentDefense": 1.0421228511531306, "afterRecentZones": 1.0595618498666313, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.0421228511531306, "adjusted": 1.0116649348260365, "playerFactor": 0.9707731998263046, "defenseFactor": 0.9835413112356812, "oldChartFactor": 1.25, "newChartFactor": 1.25, "playerRecentAttempts": 10.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 58.63333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.8028838699674402, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9224595246296935, "defenseRecentMinutes": 241.91666666666666, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 5.616666666666666, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0243821773082225, "defenseRecentMinutes": 25.916666666666668, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.4546180085146694, "adjustedSOG": 1.425525648344376, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.19444444444444445, "goalHistoryGoals": 14.0, "goalHistoryShots": 72.0, "goalExpected": 0.29877718791175895, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.29877718791175895, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.2582753437556088, "goalProbability": 0.2582753437556088, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12845632913086538, "modelSOG": 1.425525648344376, "historyGames": 133, "seasonGames": { "2024": 82, "2025": 42, "2026": 9 }, "historyGoals": 29.0, "historyShots": 190.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.15263157894736842, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.14429528590719495, "goalieFactor": 1.0134476231189056, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 60.17533327735084, "btb": { "id": "8481618", "name": "Alex Newhook", "score": 60.17533327735084, "components": { "Goal model": 65.21739130434783, "SOG model": 50.72463768115942, "Unit attack": 66.66666666666667, "Opposing lines": 72.31404958677686, "Opposing pairs": 65.9090909090909, "PP": 44.64285714285714, "Shot quality": 66.66666666666667, "Goalie": 62.67605633802817, "Team H2H": 57.633136094674555, "Goalie H2H": 49.74271012006861 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": true, "weightedXGA60": 2.7405761148248784, "games": 6, "exactGames": 3, "shares": [ 0.2994096310370864, 0.27215542739115856, 0.22803309595562532, 0.20040184561612975 ], "score": 72.31404958677686 }, "pair": { "available": true, "weightedXGA60": 2.8790338786446616, "games": 5, "exactGames": 2, "shares": [ 0.39471284622109964, 0.24218055623406026, 0.27073655193339186, 0.0923700456114482 ], "score": 65.9090909090909 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 3.0953885224685322, "unitPlayers": [ "Chris Kreider", "Alex Newhook", "Josh Anderson" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 3, "goalieH2HShots": 3, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 17 } }, { "id": "8476312", "name": "Josh Manson", "team": "COL", "opponent": "TBL", "position": "D", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 1.2, "priorSOG": 1.620253164556962, "currentTOI": 15.848333333333333, "currentFiveTOI": 13.916666666666666, "ppShare": 0.0, "rate": 1.3446019033787335, "fifty": 1.25327565524697, "inputs": { "Player": "Josh Manson", "Player_ID": "8476312", "Team": "COL", "Opponent": "TBL", "Position": "D", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.3370988651732356, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.2414584937663216, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 10, "Prior_GP": 79, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.173652694610778, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.9218642906100065, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 47.57709251101321, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 14.3587552742616, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 13.916666666666666, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.008742436616058502, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3082.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 5, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.795185185185185, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.01257648076312327, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.0, "Other_State_SOG": 0.0569620253164557, "Environment_Proxy": 0.8844868901771036, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.620253164556962, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 3", "ppUnit": "PP assignment pending", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-23", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:35:35.615148+00:00", "priorGP": 79.0, "currentTotalSOG": 12.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.0, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.20 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 23 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.46, "currentIXG": 0.046, "priorTOI": 17.78438818565401, "priorPPTOI": 0.04789029535864979, "deploymentChange": -1.9360548523206766, "ppTOIChange": -0.04789029535864979, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020668", "date": "20260106", "team": "COL", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 19.033333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2025020209", "date": "20251104", "team": "COL", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 19.233333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020334", "date": "20241125", "team": "COL", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 19.7 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 1.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "TBL", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 218.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 24.22222222222222, "mostAllowedRank": 29, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.310572168589594, "pkSogAllowed60": 47.9002079002079, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 36.333333333333336, "positionUnassignedSOG": 1.0, "positionTotals": { "L": 36.0, "R": 49.0, "D": 66.0, "C": 66.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.333333333333333, "L": 4.0, "R": 5.444444444444445, "D": 7.333333333333333 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 24.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.25, "positionSourceDifference": 1.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 24.22222222222222, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.333333333333333, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8476883", "team": "TBL", "name": "Andrei Vasilevskiy", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-23T17:44:29.480Z", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-23", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.8975903614457832, "gaa": 2.4556616643929057, "gsax": 1.495000000000001, "goalsAllowed": 17.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 18.495, "shotsAgainst": 166.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9911791106382869, "factor": 0.9911791106382869, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter for October 23; Daily Faceoff confirmation.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.041896619087854865, "goalHistoryGoals": 7.0, "goalHistoryShots": 205.0, "goalExpected": 0.05390748224398788, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.053431970307345145, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.052480235150820044, "goalProbability": 0.05202957105284204, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.04506640979780041, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.286678577356013, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.173652694610778, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 13.916666666666666, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.795185185185185, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.0, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9588832837562793, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0032616490671127, "Position_Factor": 1.0144938104754524, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3082.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.9218642906100065, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 47.57709251101321, "Prior_5v5_Min": 15.390295358649787, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.008742436616058502, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9991571455328714, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.34640522875817, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.065243521856378, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0643456765954016, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0032616490671127, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 4.729996058336618, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five saved meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. Dated 2024–2026 regular-season appearances.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020668", "date": "20260106", "team": "COL", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 19.033333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2025020209", "date": "20251104", "team": "COL", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 19.233333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020334", "date": "20241125", "team": "COL", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 19.7 }, { "gameId": "2024020157", "date": "20241030", "team": "COL", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 15.733333333333333 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Josh Manson", "Brent Burns" ], "lineupSource": "NHL.com projected lineup", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:35:35.615148+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 18, "priorAttempts": 171, "fitPct": 2.174784061879265, "index": 102.17478406187927, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 76.84210526315789, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.515281930842562, "currentAttempts": 14, "priorAttempts": 129 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 6.374269005847953, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.609652563126957, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 13 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 6.374269005847953, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.85621916135625, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 13 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 1.6374269005847955, "opponentDeltaPct": -12.897287560223589, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 5.204678362573099, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.418201733515886, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 8 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 3.5672514619883042, "opponentDeltaPct": -11.722552252061064, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 1 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 2.174784061879265, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October23 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported unit only. Expected PP minutes retain measured current-season deployment; no guessed transfer.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476883", "goalieName": "Andrei Vasilevskiy", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8476312", "goals": 0, "sog": 6, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 6, "recordedAttempts": 8, "log": [ { "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 1, "gameId": "2025020668", "date": "20260106" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2, "gameId": "2025020209", "date": "20251104" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1, "gameId": "2024020334", "date": "20241125" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2, "gameId": "2024020157", "date": "20241030" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1, "gameId": "2023020842", "date": "20240215" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1, "gameId": "2023020324", "date": "20231127" } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "window": "2021–22 through October21, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked attempts", "coverageNote": "Observed saved encounters only; missing is unavailable, not zero. Not independently established as complete career coverage." }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476883", "goalieName": "Andrei Vasilevskiy", "opponent": "COL", "games": 5, "availableGames": 13, "shotsAgainst": 157.0, "goalsAgainst": 12.0, "savePct": 0.9235668789808917, "gaa": 2.4254674077817078, "gsax": 7.298, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020668", "date": "20260106", "goalieTeam": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "shotsAgainst": 33.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.223 }, { "gameId": "2025020209", "date": "20251104", "goalieTeam": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "shotsAgainst": 33.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3420.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.409 }, { "gameId": "2024020334", "date": "20241125", "goalieTeam": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "shotsAgainst": 25.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.459 }, { "gameId": "2024020157", "date": "20241030", "goalieTeam": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "shotsAgainst": 35.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.364 }, { "gameId": "2023020842", "date": "20240215", "goalieTeam": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "shotsAgainst": 31.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3591.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.843 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "coverageNote": "Last five observed goalie/team regular-season appearances. Historical coverage is not independently established as career-complete." }, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.277214811914482, "attemptProjection": 0.8732213714459269, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261021", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 21.0, "sog": 12.0, "seconds": 8350.0, "expectedMinutes": 13.916666666666666, "projectedAttempts": 2.1, "onNet": 0.4474567301331473, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9399951775173531, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9886177218479464 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 0.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.0, "projectedAttempts": 0, "onNet": 0.425764192139738, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9635919869864824, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0126481883452998 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.0752180916802043, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.0752180916802043, "baseline": 1.620253164556962, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 79.0, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.2932321208309074, "adjustedSOG": 1.286678577356013, "reductionPct": 0.5067569363096047, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.0752180916802043, "afterPlayerForm": 1.0752180916802043, "afterRecentDefense": 1.069670800187512, "afterRecentZones": 1.069814934614574, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.0642955192220471, "adjusted": 1.0642955192220471, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9948407755267361, "oldChartFactor": 1.065243521856378, "newChartFactor": 1.0562306635524443, "playerRecentAttempts": 10.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 65.71666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.008417569411736, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.975764559752153, "defenseRecentMinutes": 244.35, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.0, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.04528859527121, "defenseRecentMinutes": 23.966666666666665, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.286678577356013, "adjustedSOG": 1.286678577356013, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.04285714285714286, "goalHistoryGoals": 6.0, "goalHistoryShots": 140.0, "goalExpected": 0.05762579585908858, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.05762579585908858, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.05599686876800178, "goalProbability": 0.05599686876800178, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05778468821795735, "modelSOG": 1.286678577356013, "historyGames": 137, "seasonGames": { "2024": 48, "2025": 79, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 7.0, "historyShots": 205.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.03414634146341464, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.041896619087854865, "goalieFactor": 0.9911791106382869, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 27.608538047989978, "btb": { "id": "8476312", "name": "Josh Manson", "score": 27.608538047989978, "components": { "Goal model": 11.594202898550725, "SOG model": 40.57971014492754, "Unit attack": 27.272727272727273, "Opposing lines": 34.61538461538461, "Opposing pairs": 30.41958041958042, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 4.3478260869565215, "Goalie": 11.971830985915492, "Team H2H": 39.45054945054945, "Goalie H2H": 47.32142857142857 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": true, "games": 8, "exactGames": 8, "individualGames": 0, "roleGames": 0, "exactMinutes": 78.75, "exactWeight": 0.5675675675675675, "individualWeight": 0, "venueGames": 3, "venueFallback": false, "shares": [ 0.21335298341001335, 0.22913808182930345, 0.19401764419407241, 0.20295516158086024, 0.16053612898575043 ], "units": [ { "unit": 2, "names": [ "Gage Goncalves", "Brayden Point", "Jake Guentzel" ], "share": 0.21335298341001335, "xGA60": 2.0340078043220755 }, { "unit": 1, "names": [ "Brandon Hagel", "Anthony Cirelli", "Nikita Kucherov" ], "share": 0.22913808182930345, "xGA60": 1.9481706788671902 }, { "unit": 3, "names": [ "Ilya Mikheyev", "Zemgus Girgensons", "Pontus Holmberg" ], "share": 0.19401764419407241, "xGA60": 2.125408163982028 }, { "unit": 4, "names": [ "Jeffrey Viel", "Conor Geekie", "Dominic James" ], "share": 0.20295516158086024, "xGA60": 2.3268473115300212 } ], "otherShare": 0.16053612898575043, "weightedXGA60": 2.118100646699211, "score": 34.61538461538461 }, "pair": { "available": true, "games": 8, "exactGames": 8, "individualGames": 0, "roleGames": 0, "exactMinutes": 78.75, "exactWeight": 0.5675675675675675, "individualWeight": 0, "venueGames": 3, "venueFallback": false, "shares": [ 0.2980326207371532, 0.2980961849774147, 0.332235493976225, 0.07163570030920711 ], "units": [ { "unit": 1, "names": [ "J.J. Moser", "John Carlson" ], "share": 0.2980326207371532, "xGA60": 2.1330165084190638 }, { "unit": 2, "names": [ "Ryan McDonagh", "Erik Cernak" ], "share": 0.2980961849774147, "xGA60": 2.0098658998691765 }, { "unit": 3, "names": [ "Victor Hedman", "Max Crozier" ], "share": 0.332235493976225, "xGA60": 2.8833997473734136 } ], "otherShare": 0.07163570030920711, "weightedXGA60": 2.3503845229153493, "score": 30.41958041958042 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.6349778059393003, "unitPlayers": [ "Josh Manson", "Brent Burns" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": 6, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 72 } }, { "id": "8476453", "name": "Nikita Kucherov", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "position": "R", "currentGP": 9, "currentSOG": 2.888888888888889, "priorSOG": 3.039473684210526, "currentTOI": 21.33888888888889, "currentFiveTOI": 14.887037037037036, "ppShare": 0.7966621253405994, "rate": 2.9227358667236363, "fifty": 2.910253478248297, "inputs": { "Player": "Nikita Kucherov", "Player_ID": "8476453", "Team": "TBL", "Opponent": "COL", "Position": "R", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 2.6072158005308905, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 2.1479725067529727, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 9, "Prior_GP": 76, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 7.16507028237343, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 7.85634776495401, "Current_PP_SOG60": 12.31295425395468, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 9.994556341861731, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 14.912768031189083, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 14.887037037037036, "Current_PP_Share": 0.7966621253405994, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.7952280194950545, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2339.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2936.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 5, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.612685185185185, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 3.6727670595204063, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 3.674751583156726, "Other_State_SOG": 0.3656432748538011, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9914667421548949, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 3.039473684210526, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 1", "ppUnit": "PP1 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-23", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:35:35.615148+00:00", "priorGP": 76.0, "currentTotalSOG": 26.0, "currentPPTOI": 4.3314814814814815, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.89 SOG/game in 9 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 9 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 23 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 3.253, "currentIXG": 0.36144444444444446, "priorTOI": 20.335087719298247, "priorPPTOI": 4.0285087719298245, "deploymentChange": 1.0038011695906413, "ppTOIChange": 0.302972709551657, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020668", "date": "20260106", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 16.333333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2025020209", "date": "20251104", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "toi": 19.6 }, { "gameId": "2024020334", "date": "20241125", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 1.0, "toi": 18.816666666666666 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 2.3333333333333335, "opponentDefense": { "team": "COL", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 273.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.3, "mostAllowedRank": 16, "fiveSogAllowed60": 27.02393375298751, "pkSogAllowed60": 47.51429828420589, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 40.2, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 100.0, "R": 60.0, "L": 45.0, "D": 68.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.0, "L": 4.5, "R": 6.0, "D": 6.8 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 29.0, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.8, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.3, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.0, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8478406", "team": "COL", "name": "Mackenzie Blackwood", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-23T16:26:32.640Z", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-23", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.8888888888888888, "gaa": 2.897734132893307, "gsax": -2.4450000000000003, "goalsAllowed": 20.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 17.555, "shotsAgainst": 180.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0252999843886221, "factor": 1.0252999843886221, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter for October 23; Daily Faceoff confirmation.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.1572888807616215, "goalHistoryGoals": 85.0, "goalHistoryShots": 522.0, "goalExpected": 0.45061585734235554, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.46201643149838273, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.36276441546202737, "goalProbability": 0.3699880121840968, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.7223596722069459, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 9, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 2.864893278917055, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 7.16507028237343, "Current_PP_SOG60": 12.31295425395468, "Current_5v5_Min": 14.887037037037036, "Current_PP_Share": 0.7966621253405994, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.612685185185185, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 3.674751583156726, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.2222222222222222, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0289555868427727, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9996701327073623, "Position_Factor": 1.014013991473008, "Input_GP": 9, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2339.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2936.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 7.85634776495401, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 9.994556341861731, "Prior_5v5_Min": 14.972807017543861, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.7952280194950545, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0573770491803278, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.382352941176471, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.9957261069306125, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.25, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0528579327381067, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.15, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 7.041072925398156, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 13.108784706417843, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 3.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five saved meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. Dated 2024–2026 regular-season appearances.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020668", "date": "20260106", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 16.333333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2025020209", "date": "20251104", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "toi": 19.6 }, { "gameId": "2024020334", "date": "20241125", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 1.0, "toi": 18.816666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020157", "date": "20241030", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "toi": 16.6 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Brandon Hagel", "Anthony Cirelli", "Nikita Kucherov" ], "lineupSource": "NHL.com projected lineup", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "rosterPosition": "R", "projectedPosition": "R", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:35:35.615148+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/tampa-bay-lightning/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-22T18:13:31.663Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 27, "priorAttempts": 251, "fitPct": -0.1424631023129166, "index": 99.85753689768708, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 21.947764497565295, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.604370751696635, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 68 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 16.060203629924747, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.2025641924569896, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 45 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 17.016378928729527, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.26262818174886604, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 51 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 10.332005312084993, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.0950116912032684, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 23 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 31.30588756086764, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.044692588641311204, "currentAttempts": 10, "priorAttempts": 57 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 3.3377600708278, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.6551158457307906, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 7 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 12, "priorAttempts": 78, "fitPct": 9.627820200929037, "index": 109.62782020092904, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 27.692307692307693, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.125139957052596, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 15 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 4.102564102564102, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.208159137665604, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 8 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 1.5384615384615388, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.03906538797926373, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 2.051282051282051, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.5428724091186723, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 63.589743589743584, "opponentDeltaPct": 15.136821787266058, "currentAttempts": 8, "priorAttempts": 46 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 1.0256410256410255, "opponentDeltaPct": -37.289476773404765, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -0.1424631023129166, "zonePPFit": 9.627820200929037, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October23 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported unit only. Expected PP minutes retain measured current-season deployment; no guessed transfer.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478406", "goalieName": "Mackenzie Blackwood", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8476453", "goals": 0, "sog": 6, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 2, "recordedAttempts": 8, "log": [ { "goals": 0, "sog": 5, "attempts": 6, "gameId": "2023021108", "date": "20240321" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2, "gameId": "2023020106", "date": "20231026" } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "window": "2021–22 through October21, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked attempts", "coverageNote": "Observed saved encounters only; missing is unavailable, not zero. Not independently established as complete career coverage." }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478406", "goalieName": "Mackenzie Blackwood", "opponent": "TBL", "games": 4, "availableGames": 4, "shotsAgainst": 99.0, "goalsAgainst": 15.0, "savePct": 0.8484848484848485, "gaa": 4.800426704595964, "gsax": -3.8269999999999995, "log": [ { "gameId": "2024020413", "date": "20241205", "goalieTeam": "SJS", "opponent": "TBL", "shotsAgainst": 23.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 2400.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.907 }, { "gameId": "2023021108", "date": "20240321", "goalieTeam": "SJS", "opponent": "TBL", "shotsAgainst": 21.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.592 }, { "gameId": "2023020106", "date": "20231026", "goalieTeam": "SJS", "opponent": "TBL", "shotsAgainst": 21.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 1649.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.962 }, { "gameId": "2021020264", "date": "20211120", "goalieTeam": "NJD", "opponent": "TBL", "shotsAgainst": 34.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.712 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "coverageNote": "Last five observed goalie/team regular-season appearances. Historical coverage is not independently established as career-complete." }, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 2.9612047475138246, "attemptProjection": 2.8887821678474914, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261021", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 38.0, "sog": 16.0, "seconds": 8039.0, "expectedMinutes": 14.887037037037036, "projectedAttempts": 4.222222222222222, "onNet": 0.46266498591131544, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0290266956001277, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9868443082842028 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 15.0, "sog": 8.0, "seconds": 2339.0, "expectedMinutes": 3.674751583156726, "projectedAttempts": 1.4139702543142596, "onNet": 0.5057199211045366, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9649306914974484, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9896116972997503 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.9277397272671175, "ppAdjusted": 0.7750315081913179, "other": 0.2222222222222222 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 2.924993457680658, "baseline": 3.039473684210526, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 76.0, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 2.9707855482926053, "adjustedSOG": 2.923360488690873, "reductionPct": 1.5963811197677646, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.9277397272671175, "afterPlayerForm": 1.85120618721478, "afterRecentDefense": 1.9277397272671175, "afterRecentZones": 1.9251278049198224, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.9251278049198226, "adjusted": 1.8486979612642305, "playerFactor": 0.9602988209612529, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.9957261069306125, "newChartFactor": 0.9929471430378508, "playerRecentAttempts": 17.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 78.23333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.7661684569327024, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0842659644502963, "defenseRecentMinutes": 251.61666666666667, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.7750315081913179, "afterPlayerForm": 0.7750315081913179, "afterRecentDefense": 0.7750315081913179, "afterRecentZones": 0.7750315081913179, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.7750315081913179, "adjusted": 0.7750315081913179, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.25, "newChartFactor": 1.25, "playerRecentAttempts": 11.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 16.616666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.7204279505182214, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.594204503506829, "defenseRecentMinutes": 15.05, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 2.923360488690873, "adjustedSOG": 2.864893278917055, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.1867704280155642, "goalHistoryGoals": 48.0, "goalHistoryShots": 257.0, "goalExpected": 0.5458806288044146, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.5458806288044146, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.42066861726684285, "goalProbability": 0.42066861726684285, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1283368383372858, "modelSOG": 2.864893278917055, "historyGames": 163, "seasonGames": { "2024": 78, "2025": 76, "2026": 9 }, "historyGoals": 85.0, "historyShots": 522.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.16283524904214558, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.1572888807616215, "goalieFactor": 1.0252999843886221, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 74.94919859942058, "btb": { "id": "8476453", "name": "Nikita Kucherov", "score": 74.94919859942058, "components": { "Goal model": 95.65217391304348, "SOG model": 94.20289855072464, "Unit attack": 100.0, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 55.35714285714286, "Shot quality": 88.40579710144928, "Goalie": 88.02816901408451, "Team H2H": 55.05494505494506, "Goalie H2H": 46.71266233766234 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 3.8074566757153727, "unitPlayers": [ "Brandon Hagel", "Anthony Cirelli", "Nikita Kucherov" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": 6, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 3 } }, { "id": "8482062", "name": "Cole Smith", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "MTL", "position": "L", "currentGP": 9, "currentSOG": 1.0, "priorSOG": 1.0952380952380953, "currentTOI": 13.74074074074074, "currentFiveTOI": 11.648148148148147, "ppShare": 0.005610098176718092, "rate": 1.0689261286446254, "fifty": 1.0599089478857833, "inputs": { "Player": "Cole Smith", "Player_ID": "8482062", "Team": "CHI", "Opponent": "MTL", "Position": "R", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.263419753608227, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.2213064607989281, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 9, "Prior_GP": 63, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.578696343402226, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.900532562749266, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 11.47695767195767, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 11.648148148148147, "Current_PP_Share": 0.005610098176718092, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.00712598538685495, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 12.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2139.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 6, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.173148148148148, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.031374441727994785, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.029021868993818502, "Other_State_SOG": 0.18253968253968253, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9555676582468344, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.0952380952380953, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 4", "ppUnit": "PP assignment pending", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-23", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:35:35.615148+00:00", "priorGP": 63.0, "currentTotalSOG": 9.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.022222222222222223, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.00 SOG/game in 9 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 9 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 23 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.5090000000000001, "currentIXG": 0.16766666666666669, "priorTOI": 13.281746031746032, "priorPPTOI": 0.032539682539682535, "deploymentChange": 0.45899470899470884, "ppTOIChange": -0.010317460317460312, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020062", "date": "20251016", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 14.183333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024021228", "date": "20250406", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 13.233333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020411", "date": "20241205", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 12.45 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 3, "h2hSOG": 1.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "MTL", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 237.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 26.333333333333332, "mostAllowedRank": 20, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.983070773571598, "pkSogAllowed60": 45.93967517401392, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 38.666666666666664, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 76.0, "D": 64.0, "R": 52.0, "L": 45.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 8.444444444444445, "L": 5.0, "R": 5.777777777777778, "D": 7.111111111111111 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 25.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 3, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27.333333333333332, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 26.333333333333332, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.0, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8484170", "team": "MTL", "name": "Jacob Fowler", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-23T17:12:10.576Z", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-23", "games": 4, "savePct": 0.9, "gaa": 2.163895011019836, "gsax": 2.1389999999999993, "goalsAllowed": 9.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 11.139, "shotsAgainst": 90.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9828963086689823, "factor": 0.9828963086689823, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter for October 23; Daily Faceoff confirmation.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.10467601947595188, "goalHistoryGoals": 13.0, "goalHistoryShots": 147.0, "goalExpected": 0.09909290411095072, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.09739804966594287, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.0943414352888002, "goalProbability": 0.09280517434314026, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.1536260945659937, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 9, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 0.9466628995547177, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.578696343402226, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 11.648148148148147, "Current_PP_Share": 0.005610098176718092, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.173148148148148, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.029021868993818502, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.1111111111111111, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9711545151193198, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9819199317155711, "Position_Factor": 1.0025538171453592, "Input_GP": 9, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 12.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2139.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.900532562749266, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 11.077513227513228, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.00712598538685495, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9941897998708845, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.062091503267974, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.989320144382511, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9835719963518832, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9819199317155711, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 3.4436579299789556, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 1.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five saved meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. Dated 2024–2026 regular-season appearances.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020062", "date": "20251016", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 14.183333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024021228", "date": "20250406", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 13.233333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020411", "date": "20241205", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 12.45 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Cole Smith", "Ryan Greene", "Jordan Greenway" ], "lineupSource": "NHL.com projected lineup", "isHome": true, "rosterPosition": "L", "projectedPosition": "L", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:35:35.615148+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 11, "priorAttempts": 97, "fitPct": -0.35599518724963275, "index": 99.64400481275037, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 19.662605435801307, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.711511602468903, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 8 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 7.422680412371134, "opponentDeltaPct": -5.805766108288097, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 18 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 47.47891283973758, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.5231164238779513, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 49 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 10.402999062792878, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.4830868449991215, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 12 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 7.928772258669166, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.49406869911976514, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 7.104029990627929, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.365981626756792, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 4 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -0.35599518724963275, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October23 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported unit only. Expected PP minutes retain measured current-season deployment; no guessed transfer.", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8484170", "goalieName": "Jacob Fowler", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8482062", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "window": "2021–22 through October21, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked attempts", "coverageNote": "Observed saved encounters only; missing is unavailable, not zero. Not independently established as complete career coverage." }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8484170", "goalieName": "Jacob Fowler", "opponent": "CHI", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "coverageNote": "Last five observed goalie/team regular-season appearances. Historical coverage is not independently established as career-complete." }, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.9853973300905627, "attemptProjection": 0.8159626758500831, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261021", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 13.0, "sog": 8.0, "seconds": 6290.0, "expectedMinutes": 11.648148148148147, "projectedAttempts": 1.4444444444444442, "onNet": 0.5173265637582061, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.916154770019487, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0295873524263528 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 12.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.029021868993818502, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.5605095541401274, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9091960351585663, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0070808959552022 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.7895688918592119, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.1111111111111111 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.9006800029703229, "baseline": 1.0952380952380953, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 63.0, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.9785032398774318, "adjustedSOG": 0.9466628995547177, "reductionPct": 3.2539841489643395, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.7895688918592119, "afterPlayerForm": 0.7895688918592119, "afterRecentDefense": 0.7383190677035459, "afterRecentZones": 0.7876253281102705, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.7365016579880216, "adjusted": 0.7365016579880216, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9350913838120104, "oldChartFactor": 0.989320144382511, "newChartFactor": 0.9849215693461487, "playerRecentAttempts": 9.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 52.733333333333334, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.3763006904599826, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.6952186350633428, "defenseRecentMinutes": 244.7, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9722388488519644, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.1, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8240542632130013, "defenseRecentMinutes": 33.28333333333333, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.9466628995547177, "adjustedSOG": 0.9466628995547177, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.11538461538461539, "goalHistoryGoals": 9.0, "goalHistoryShots": 78.0, "goalExpected": 0.12333763022822603, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.12333763022822603, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.1160348411866017, "goalProbability": 0.1160348411866017, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12854976810560115, "modelSOG": 0.9466628995547177, "historyGames": 143, "seasonGames": { "2024": 71, "2025": 63, "2026": 9 }, "historyGoals": 13.0, "historyShots": 147.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.08843537414965986, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.10467601947595188, "goalieFactor": 0.9828963086689823, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 42.49930972508579, "btb": { "id": "8482062", "name": "Cole Smith", "score": 42.49930972508579, "components": { "Goal model": 33.333333333333336, "SOG model": 15.942028985507246, "Unit attack": 40.0, "Opposing lines": 52.651515151515156, "Opposing pairs": 47.348484848484844, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 53.6231884057971, "Goalie": 37.32394366197183, "Team H2H": 46.27218934911242, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": true, "weightedXGA60": 2.517063704161175, "games": 7, "exactGames": 7, "shares": [ 0.21560282417527196, 0.3226053721094468, 0.2448349901870578, 0.21695681352822338 ], "score": 52.651515151515156 }, "pair": { "available": true, "weightedXGA60": 2.574780876057326, "games": 7, "exactGames": 7, "shares": [ 0.2967426111221019, 0.28979524799779605, 0.2959224396345851, 0.11753970124551699 ], "score": 47.348484848484844 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.495068892057513, "unitPlayers": [ "Cole Smith", "Ryan Greene", "Jordan Greenway" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 3, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 53 } }, { "id": "8485391", "name": "Anton Frondell", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "MTL", "position": "C", "currentGP": 9, "currentSOG": 1.7777777777777777, "priorSOG": 3.0, "currentTOI": 17.396296296296295, "currentFiveTOI": 13.224074074074075, "ppShare": 0.4474053295932679, "rate": 2.6957731474368236, "fifty": 2.308894124416567, "inputs": { "Player": "Anton Frondell", "Player_ID": "8485391", "Team": "CHI", "Opponent": "MTL", "Position": "C", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 3.0408182929310756, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 2.598485678107533, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 9, "Prior_GP": 12, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 6.049572888951127, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 9.251644736842104, "Current_PP_SOG60": 11.285266457680251, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 15.483870967741936, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 13.310185185185185, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 13.224074074074075, "Current_PP_Share": 0.4474053295932679, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.7461843856979838, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 957.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2139.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 6, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.173148148148148, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 2.778182548495094, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 2.3144940522570256, "Other_State_SOG": 0.08611111111111111, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9555676582468344, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 3.0, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 2", "ppUnit": "PP2 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-23", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:35:35.615148+00:00", "priorGP": 12.0, "currentTotalSOG": 16.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.7722222222222221, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.78 SOG/game in 9 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 9 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 23 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.793, "currentIXG": 0.19922222222222222, "priorTOI": 17.693055555555556, "priorPPTOI": 3.2291666666666665, "deploymentChange": -0.29675925925926094, "ppTOIChange": -1.4569444444444444, "h2hLog": [], "h2hGames": 0, "h2hAvailableGames": 0, "h2hSOG": null, "opponentDefense": { "team": "MTL", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 237.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 26.333333333333332, "mostAllowedRank": 20, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.983070773571598, "pkSogAllowed60": 45.93967517401392, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 38.666666666666664, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 76.0, "D": 64.0, "R": 52.0, "L": 45.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 8.444444444444445, "L": 5.0, "R": 5.777777777777778, "D": 7.111111111111111 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 25.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 3, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27.333333333333332, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 26.333333333333332, "oppPosSogAllowed": 8.444444444444445, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8484170", "team": "MTL", "name": "Jacob Fowler", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-23T17:12:10.576Z", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-23", "games": 4, "savePct": 0.9, "gaa": 2.163895011019836, "gsax": 2.1389999999999993, "goalsAllowed": 9.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 11.139, "shotsAgainst": 90.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9828963086689823, "factor": 0.9828963086689823, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter for October 23; Daily Faceoff confirmation.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.11086917266431687, "goalHistoryGoals": 4.0, "goalHistoryShots": 52.0, "goalExpected": 0.25125989282302, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.2469624211723105, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.22217980459835576, "goalProbability": 0.21882995156554208, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.3349853032813682, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 9, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 2.2662737241105777, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 6.049572888951127, "Current_PP_SOG60": 11.285266457680251, "Current_5v5_Min": 13.224074074074075, "Current_PP_Share": 0.4474053295932679, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.173148148148148, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 2.3144940522570256, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.1111111111111111, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9711545151193198, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9819199317155711, "Position_Factor": 0.9911637855464778, "Input_GP": 9, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 957.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2139.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 9.251644736842104, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 15.483870967741936, "Prior_5v5_Min": 13.511111111111111, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.7461843856979838, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9501385041551247, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.437908496732026, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.9608896502103618, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.25, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9129782549090141, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.15, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.139186295503212, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 11.894273127753303, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [], "h2hWindow": "Last five saved meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. Dated 2024–2026 regular-season appearances.", "h2hFullLog": [], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Tyler Bertuzzi", "Anton Frondell", "Teuvo Teravainen" ], "lineupSource": "NHL.com projected lineup", "isHome": true, "rosterPosition": "C", "projectedPosition": "C", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:35:35.615148+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/chicago-blackhawks/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-22T16:55:34.203Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 18, "priorAttempts": 33, "fitPct": -1.3036783263212754, "index": 98.69632167367872, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 11.81818181818182, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.711511602468903, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 14.242424242424242, "opponentDeltaPct": -5.805766108288097, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 9 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 23.939393939393938, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.5231164238779513, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 33.939393939393945, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.4830868449991215, "currentAttempts": 8, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 16.06060606060606, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.49406869911976514, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.365981626756792, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 17, "fitPct": 16.67063446745523, "index": 116.67063446745523, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.8191755597579373, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.365371878175409, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 11.76470588235294, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.116979926964163, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.921488030021976, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 88.23529411764706, "opponentDeltaPct": 19.17564972004449, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 12 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 88.51112253515706, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -1.3036783263212754, "zonePPFit": 16.67063446745523, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October23 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported unit only. Expected PP minutes retain measured current-season deployment; no guessed transfer.", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8484170", "goalieName": "Jacob Fowler", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8485391", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "window": "2021–22 through October21, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked attempts", "coverageNote": "Observed saved encounters only; missing is unavailable, not zero. Not independently established as complete career coverage." }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8484170", "goalieName": "Jacob Fowler", "opponent": "CHI", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "coverageNote": "Last five observed goalie/team regular-season appearances. Historical coverage is not independently established as career-complete." }, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.8290426911331656, "attemptProjection": 1.769563788057492, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261021", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 25.0, "sog": 12.0, "seconds": 7141.0, "expectedMinutes": 13.224074074074075, "projectedAttempts": 2.7777777777777777, "onNet": 0.4970984538973003, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.916154770019487, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0295873524263528 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 5.0, "sog": 3.0, "seconds": 957.0, "expectedMinutes": 2.3144940522570256, "projectedAttempts": 0.7255467248454627, "onNet": 0.5358288770053476, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9091960351585663, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0070808959552022 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.2598935111946254, "ppAdjusted": 0.4282986172895922, "other": 0.1111111111111111 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.7993032395953288, "baseline": 3.0, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 12.0, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 2.279581943757197, "adjustedSOG": 2.2662737241105777, "reductionPct": 0.5838008887140478, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.2598935111946254, "afterPlayerForm": 1.2496032077679966, "afterRecentDefense": 1.2598935111946254, "afterRecentZones": 1.2598935111946254, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.2598935111946254, "adjusted": 1.2496032077679966, "playerFactor": 0.9918324022346369, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.9608896502103618, "newChartFactor": 0.9608896502103618, "playerRecentAttempts": 13.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 65.3, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.9477590607452782, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.1123498161013488, "defenseRecentMinutes": 244.7, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.4282986172895922, "afterPlayerForm": 0.4282986172895922, "afterRecentDefense": 0.4164085546385212, "afterRecentZones": 0.4282986172895922, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.4164085546385212, "adjusted": 0.4164085546385212, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9722388488519644, "oldChartFactor": 1.25, "newChartFactor": 1.25, "playerRecentAttempts": 3.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 6.133333333333334, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.5603260869565216, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8240542632130013, "defenseRecentMinutes": 33.28333333333333, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 2.2662737241105777, "adjustedSOG": 2.2662737241105777, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.07692307692307693, "goalHistoryGoals": 4.0, "goalHistoryShots": 52.0, "goalExpected": 0.207367165187448, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.207367165187448, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.18727880772962083, "goalProbability": 0.18727880772962083, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12852114244976162, "modelSOG": 2.2662737241105777, "historyGames": 21, "seasonGames": { "2025": 12, "2026": 9 }, "historyGoals": 4.0, "historyShots": 52.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.07692307692307693, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.11086917266431687, "goalieFactor": 0.9828963086689823, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 50.564194812128065, "btb": { "id": "8485391", "name": "Anton Frondell", "score": 50.564194812128065, "components": { "Goal model": 76.81159420289855, "SOG model": 85.5072463768116, "Unit attack": 0.0, "Opposing lines": 57.95454545454545, "Opposing pairs": 58.391608391608386, "PP": 25.0, "Shot quality": 63.768115942028984, "Goalie": 37.32394366197183, "Team H2H": 50.0, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Team H2H unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": true, "weightedXGA60": 2.562894865507013, "games": 7, "exactGames": 5, "shares": [ 0.3762953945969206, 0.282908541572838, 0.14807429982511067, 0.19272176400513072 ], "score": 57.95454545454545 }, "pair": { "available": true, "weightedXGA60": 2.5891823970227765, "games": 8, "exactGames": 4, "shares": [ 0.3696519963408762, 0.29465630574074736, 0.21309376741048197, 0.12259793050789441 ], "score": 58.391608391608386 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.017057060514447, "unitPlayers": [ "Tyler Bertuzzi", "Anton Frondell", "Teuvo Teravainen" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 0, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 33 } }, { "id": "8476952", "name": "Dominic Toninato", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "MTL", "position": "C", "currentGP": 3, "currentSOG": 0.3333333333333333, "priorSOG": 1.0, "currentTOI": 8.866666666666667, "currentFiveTOI": 8.833333333333334, "ppShare": 0.0054869684499314125, "rate": 0.8963715220584508, "fifty": 0.6820394242780795, "inputs": { "Player": "Dominic Toninato", "Player_ID": "8476952", "Team": "CHI", "Opponent": "MTL", "Position": "C", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.0342671472365461, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 0.8481025380254017, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 3, "Prior_GP": 8, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.2641509433962264, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.63441603317208, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 8.896458333333333, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 8.833333333333334, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0054869684499314125, "Prior_PP_Share": 0, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 4.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 729.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 2, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.173148148148148, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.019869430472997, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.028384900675710003, "Other_State_SOG": 0.0, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9555676582468344, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.0, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Not on projected lineup", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "PP assignment pending", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-23", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:35:35.615148+00:00", "priorGP": 8.0, "currentTotalSOG": 1.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.022222222222222223, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.33 SOG/game in 3 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 3 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Not listed on latest projected chart; October 23 dressing status unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.04, "currentIXG": 0.013333333333333334, "priorTOI": 9.154166666666667, "priorPPTOI": 0.0, "deploymentChange": -0.28749999999999964, "ppTOIChange": 0.022222222222222223, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020536", "date": "20251218", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 8.966666666666667 } ], "h2hGames": 1, "h2hAvailableGames": 1, "h2hSOG": 1.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "MTL", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 237.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 26.333333333333332, "mostAllowedRank": 20, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.983070773571598, "pkSogAllowed60": 45.93967517401392, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 38.666666666666664, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 76.0, "D": 64.0, "R": 52.0, "L": 45.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 8.444444444444445, "L": 5.0, "R": 5.777777777777778, "D": 7.111111111111111 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 25.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 3, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27.333333333333332, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 26.333333333333332, "oppPosSogAllowed": 8.444444444444445, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8484170", "team": "MTL", "name": "Jacob Fowler", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-23T17:12:10.576Z", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-23", "games": 4, "savePct": 0.9, "gaa": 2.163895011019836, "gsax": 2.1389999999999993, "goalsAllowed": 9.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 11.139, "shotsAgainst": 90.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9828963086689823, "factor": 0.9828963086689823, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter for October 23; Daily Faceoff confirmation.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.1157746258230865, "goalHistoryGoals": 0.0, "goalHistoryShots": 11.0, "goalExpected": 0.07864686345747307, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.07730171178074376, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.0756337056676627, "goalProbability": 0.07438945613237068, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.12442495352920219, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 3, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 0.6793100206400338, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.2641509433962264, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 8.833333333333334, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0054869684499314125, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.173148148148148, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.028384900675710003, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9711545151193198, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9819199317155711, "Position_Factor": 0.9911637855464778, "Input_GP": 3, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 4.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 729.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.63441603317208, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 9.04375, "Prior_PP_Share": 0, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9501385041551247, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.437908496732026, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.006924959769329, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9567181750716894, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9819199317155711, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 2.2641509433962264, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 1.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five saved meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. Dated 2024–2026 regular-season appearances.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020536", "date": "20251218", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 8.966666666666667 } ], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "NHL.com projected lineup", "isHome": true, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 15, "fitPct": 0.23083199231096785, "index": 100.23083199231097, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.711511602468903, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 2.666666666666667, "opponentDeltaPct": -5.805766108288097, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 16.000000000000004, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.5231164238779513, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 13.333333333333334, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.4830868449991215, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 65.33333333333333, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.49406869911976514, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 2.666666666666667, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.365981626756792, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 0.23083199231096785, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October23 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported unit only. Expected PP minutes retain measured current-season deployment; no guessed transfer.", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8484170", "goalieName": "Jacob Fowler", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8476952", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "window": "2021–22 through October21, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked attempts", "coverageNote": "Observed saved encounters only; missing is unavailable, not zero. Not independently established as complete career coverage." }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8484170", "goalieName": "Jacob Fowler", "opponent": "CHI", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "coverageNote": "Last five observed goalie/team regular-season appearances. Historical coverage is not independently established as career-complete." }, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.3189060583572298, "attemptProjection": 0.6121273437762162, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261021", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 4.0, "sog": 1.0, "seconds": 1590.0, "expectedMinutes": 8.833333333333334, "projectedAttempts": 1.3333333333333335, "onNet": 0.48671081559810225, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.916154770019487, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0295873524263528 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 4.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.028384900675710003, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.5294117647058824, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9091960351585663, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0070808959552022 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.46551670106672305, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.46551670106672305, "baseline": 1.0, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 8.0, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.6793100206400338, "adjustedSOG": 0.6793100206400338, "reductionPct": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.46551670106672305, "afterPlayerForm": 0.46551670106672305, "afterRecentDefense": 0.46551670106672305, "afterRecentZones": 0.46551670106672305, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.46551670106672305, "adjusted": 0.46551670106672305, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.006924959769329, "newChartFactor": 1.006924959769329, "playerRecentAttempts": 4.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 26.5, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.1123498161013488, "defenseRecentMinutes": 244.7, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9722388488519644, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.06666666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8240542632130013, "defenseRecentMinutes": 33.28333333333333, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.6793100206400338, "adjustedSOG": 0.6793100206400338, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.0, "goalHistoryGoals": 0.0, "goalHistoryShots": 9.0, "goalExpected": 0.0, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.0, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.0, "goalProbability": 0.0, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.128509834663626, "modelSOG": 0.6793100206400338, "historyGames": 16, "seasonGames": { "2024": 5, "2025": 8, "2026": 3 }, "historyGoals": 0.0, "historyShots": 11.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.0, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.1157746258230865, "goalieFactor": 0.9828963086689823, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8474151", "name": "Ryan McDonagh", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "position": "D", "currentGP": 9, "currentSOG": 0.6666666666666666, "priorSOG": 0.8125, "currentTOI": 15.657407407407407, "currentFiveTOI": 12.466666666666667, "ppShare": 0.010217983651226158, "rate": 0.7180272787284876, "fifty": 0.6515737284590465, "inputs": { "Player": "Ryan McDonagh", "Player_ID": "8474151", "Team": "TBL", "Opponent": "COL", "Position": "D", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 0.6483917966672583, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 0.48028614835729816, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 9, "Prior_GP": 48, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.6737967914438503, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.088872832369942, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 13.34, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 12.466666666666667, "Current_PP_Share": 0.010217983651226158, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.023578344834964963, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 30.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2936.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 5, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.612685185185185, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.06562048384076188, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.04713234181047533, "Other_State_SOG": 0.02986111111111111, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9914667421548949, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 0.8125, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 2", "ppUnit": "PP assignment pending", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-23", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:35:35.615148+00:00", "priorGP": 48.0, "currentTotalSOG": 6.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.05555555555555555, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.67 SOG/game in 9 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 9 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 23 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.268, "currentIXG": 0.029777777777777778, "priorTOI": 19.256249999999998, "priorPPTOI": 0.11944444444444445, "deploymentChange": -3.5988425925925913, "ppTOIChange": -0.0638888888888889, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020209", "date": "20251104", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 20.5 }, { "gameId": "2024020334", "date": "20241125", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 17.683333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020157", "date": "20241030", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 19.466666666666665 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 3, "h2hSOG": 1.6666666666666667, "opponentDefense": { "team": "COL", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 273.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.3, "mostAllowedRank": 16, "fiveSogAllowed60": 27.02393375298751, "pkSogAllowed60": 47.51429828420589, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 40.2, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 100.0, "R": 60.0, "L": 45.0, "D": 68.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.0, "L": 4.5, "R": 6.0, "D": 6.8 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 29.0, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.8, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.3, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.8, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8478406", "team": "COL", "name": "Mackenzie Blackwood", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-23T16:26:32.640Z", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-23", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.8888888888888888, "gaa": 2.897734132893307, "gsax": -2.4450000000000003, "goalsAllowed": 20.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 17.555, "shotsAgainst": 180.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0252999843886221, "factor": 1.0252999843886221, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter for October 23; Daily Faceoff confirmation.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.07067508872168174, "goalHistoryGoals": 10.0, "goalHistoryShots": 123.0, "goalExpected": 0.05188981932614449, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.05320263094502437, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.050566529700317324, "goalProbability": 0.051812139187278665, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.1245609486961341, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 9, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 0.7342023938659126, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.6737967914438503, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 12.466666666666667, "Current_PP_Share": 0.010217983651226158, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.612685185185185, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.04713234181047533, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.1111111111111111, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0289555868427727, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9996701327073623, "Position_Factor": 0.9904286105353721, "Input_GP": 9, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 30.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2936.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.088872832369942, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 15.377777777777778, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.023578344834964963, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9628113879003559, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.34640522875817, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.022220029791409, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9842050856230097, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9996701327073623, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 2.4489795918367347, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 2.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five saved meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. Dated 2024–2026 regular-season appearances.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020209", "date": "20251104", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 20.5 }, { "gameId": "2024020334", "date": "20241125", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 17.683333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020157", "date": "20241030", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 19.466666666666665 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Ryan McDonagh", "Erik Cernak" ], "lineupSource": "NHL.com projected lineup", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:35:35.615148+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 68, "fitPct": 0.7406676597136368, "index": 100.74066765971364, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 58.991596638655466, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.604370751696635, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 42 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 11.512605042016807, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.2025641924569896, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 2.3529411764705883, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.26262818174886604, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 24.789915966386555, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.0950116912032684, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 13 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 1.1764705882352942, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.044692588641311204, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 1.1764705882352942, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.6551158457307906, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 0.7406676597136368, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October23 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported unit only. Expected PP minutes retain measured current-season deployment; no guessed transfer.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478406", "goalieName": "Mackenzie Blackwood", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8474151", "goals": 0, "sog": 6, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 3, "recordedAttempts": 8, "log": [ { "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 1, "gameId": "2023020074", "date": "20231021" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 4, "gameId": "2022020775", "date": "20230126" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 3, "gameId": "2021020264", "date": "20211120" } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "window": "2021–22 through October21, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked attempts", "coverageNote": "Observed saved encounters only; missing is unavailable, not zero. Not independently established as complete career coverage." }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478406", "goalieName": "Mackenzie Blackwood", "opponent": "TBL", "games": 4, "availableGames": 4, "shotsAgainst": 99.0, "goalsAgainst": 15.0, "savePct": 0.8484848484848485, "gaa": 4.800426704595964, "gsax": -3.8269999999999995, "log": [ { "gameId": "2024020413", "date": "20241205", "goalieTeam": "SJS", "opponent": "TBL", "shotsAgainst": 23.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 2400.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.907 }, { "gameId": "2023021108", "date": "20240321", "goalieTeam": "SJS", "opponent": "TBL", "shotsAgainst": 21.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.592 }, { "gameId": "2023020106", "date": "20231026", "goalieTeam": "SJS", "opponent": "TBL", "shotsAgainst": 21.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 1649.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.962 }, { "gameId": "2021020264", "date": "20211120", "goalieTeam": "NJD", "opponent": "TBL", "shotsAgainst": 34.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.712 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "coverageNote": "Last five observed goalie/team regular-season appearances. Historical coverage is not independently established as career-complete." }, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.6578917142350054, "attemptProjection": 0.7560620063973502, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261021", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 15.0, "sog": 5.0, "seconds": 6732.0, "expectedMinutes": 12.466666666666667, "projectedAttempts": 1.6666666666666667, "onNet": 0.38106812060697626, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0290266956001277, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9868443082842028 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 30.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.04713234181047533, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.425764192139738, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9649306914974484, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9896116972997503 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.5958657492050667, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.1111111111111111 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.7069768603161778, "baseline": 0.8125, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 48.0, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.7491861161897067, "adjustedSOG": 0.7491861161897068, "reductionPct": -2.220446049250313e-14, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.5958657492050667, "afterPlayerForm": 0.5958657492050667, "afterRecentDefense": 0.5958657492050667, "afterRecentZones": 0.5958657492050667, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.5958657492050667, "adjusted": 0.5958657492050667, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.022220029791409, "newChartFactor": 1.022220029791409, "playerRecentAttempts": 10.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 60.5, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.2363636363636363, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0338983050847457, "defenseRecentMinutes": 251.61666666666667, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.3, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.594204503506829, "defenseRecentMinutes": 15.05, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.7491861161897068, "adjustedSOG": 0.7342023938659126, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.13333333333333333, "goalHistoryGoals": 6.0, "goalHistoryShots": 45.0, "goalExpected": 0.09573697049713167, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.09573697049713167, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.09129699966419488, "goalProbability": 0.09129699966419488, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05760544784935029, "modelSOG": 0.7342023938659126, "historyGames": 139, "seasonGames": { "2024": 82, "2025": 48, "2026": 9 }, "historyGoals": 10.0, "historyShots": 123.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.08130081300813008, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.07067508872168174, "goalieFactor": 1.0252999843886221, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 35.73622115044815, "btb": { "id": "8474151", "name": "Ryan McDonagh", "score": 35.73622115044815, "components": { "Goal model": 10.144927536231885, "SOG model": 5.797101449275362, "Unit attack": 18.181818181818183, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 47.2027972027972, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 1.4492753623188406, "Goalie": 88.02816901408451, "Team H2H": 53.72781065088758, "Goalie H2H": 47.32142857142857 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Incomplete current opposing units or 5v5 minute baselines; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Incomplete current opposing units or 5v5 minute baselines", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": true, "games": 8, "exactGames": 8, "individualGames": 0, "roleGames": 0, "exactMinutes": 75.6, "exactWeight": 0.5575221238938053, "individualWeight": 0, "venueGames": 3, "venueFallback": false, "shares": [ 0.3170095021325525, 0.3083859371762904, 0.2783610433017648, 0.09624351738939216 ], "units": [ { "unit": 2, "names": [ "Brett Kulak", "Sam Malinski" ], "share": 0.3170095021325525, "xGA60": 2.386620819090907 }, { "unit": 1, "names": [ "Devon Toews", "Cale Makar" ], "share": 0.3083859371762904, "xGA60": 2.232944179481916 }, { "unit": 3, "names": [ "Josh Manson", "Brent Burns" ], "share": 0.2783610433017648, "xGA60": 2.608622014683556 } ], "otherShare": 0.09624351738939216, "weightedXGA60": 2.3977335252438685, "score": 47.2027972027972 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.3371018565247756, "unitPlayers": [ "Ryan McDonagh", "Erik Cernak" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 3, "goalieH2HShots": 6, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 63 } }, { "id": "8476882", "name": "Teuvo Teravainen", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "MTL", "position": "R", "currentGP": 7, "currentSOG": 1.0, "priorSOG": 1.1891891891891893, "currentTOI": 14.66904761904762, "currentFiveTOI": 11.204761904761906, "ppShare": 0.23391812865497075, "rate": 1.0362050962523779, "fifty": 1.039283781227479, "inputs": { "Player": "Teuvo Teravainen", "Player_ID": "8476882", "Team": "CHI", "Opponent": "MTL", "Position": "C", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 0.9989677403782335, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 0.8285653855910748, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 7, "Prior_GP": 74, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.589885252868679, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.6254440253414875, "Current_PP_SOG60": 10.0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 6.9785082174462705, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 11.533468468468469, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 11.204761904761906, "Current_PP_Share": 0.23391812865497075, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.617504985967329, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 360.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1539.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 4, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.173148148148148, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 1.8053986262375603, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 1.2100931340697423, "Other_State_SOG": 0.12162162162162163, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9555676582468344, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.1891891891891893, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 2", "ppUnit": "PP1 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-23", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:35:35.615148+00:00", "priorGP": 74.0, "currentTotalSOG": 7.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.8571428571428571, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.00 SOG/game in 7 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 7 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 23 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.7909999999999999, "currentIXG": 0.11299999999999999, "priorTOI": 17.752252252252255, "priorPPTOI": 2.6722972972972974, "deploymentChange": -3.0832046332046357, "ppTOIChange": -1.8151544401544402, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020536", "date": "20251218", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 18.4 }, { "gameId": "2025020031", "date": "20251011", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 20.566666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024021285", "date": "20250414", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 18.85 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 1.6666666666666667, "opponentDefense": { "team": "MTL", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 237.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 26.333333333333332, "mostAllowedRank": 20, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.983070773571598, "pkSogAllowed60": 45.93967517401392, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 38.666666666666664, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 76.0, "D": 64.0, "R": 52.0, "L": 45.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 8.444444444444445, "L": 5.0, "R": 5.777777777777778, "D": 7.111111111111111 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 25.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 3, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27.333333333333332, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 26.333333333333332, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.777777777777778, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8484170", "team": "MTL", "name": "Jacob Fowler", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-23T17:12:10.576Z", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-23", "games": 4, "savePct": 0.9, "gaa": 2.163895011019836, "gsax": 2.1389999999999993, "goalsAllowed": 9.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 11.139, "shotsAgainst": 90.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9828963086689823, "factor": 0.9828963086689823, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter for October 23; Daily Faceoff confirmation.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.14002148573025672, "goalHistoryGoals": 30.0, "goalHistoryShots": 206.0, "goalExpected": 0.14032369760702473, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.1379236443967271, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.1309231282408148, "goalProbability": 0.12883479244868826, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.20883357921265555, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 7, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.0021583250255621, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.589885252868679, "Current_PP_SOG60": 10.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 11.204761904761906, "Current_PP_Share": 0.23391812865497075, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.173148148148148, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.2100931340697423, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9711545151193198, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9819199317155711, "Position_Factor": 1.013054138770874, "Input_GP": 7, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 360.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1539.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.6254440253414875, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 6.9785082174462705, "Prior_5v5_Min": 12.30045045045045, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.617504985967329, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0348001150417026, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.382352941176471, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.9180429354089263, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.9786817636890889, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9499909351743793, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9609871305728649, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.454545454545454, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five saved meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. Dated 2024–2026 regular-season appearances.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020536", "date": "20251218", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 18.4 }, { "gameId": "2025020031", "date": "20251011", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 20.566666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024021285", "date": "20250414", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 18.85 }, { "gameId": "2024020616", "date": "20250103", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 17.666666666666668 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Tyler Bertuzzi", "Anton Frondell", "Teuvo Teravainen" ], "lineupSource": "NHL.com projected lineup", "isHome": true, "rosterPosition": "R", "projectedPosition": "R", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:35:35.615148+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/chicago-blackhawks/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-22T16:55:34.203Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 94, "fitPct": -2.73190215303579, "index": 97.26809784696421, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 17.08206686930091, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.711511602468903, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 20 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 32.097264437689965, "opponentDeltaPct": -5.805766108288097, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 15 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 14.52887537993921, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.5231164238779513, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 14 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 17.507598784194528, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.4830868449991215, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 21 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 15.379939209726444, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.49406869911976514, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 16 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 3.404255319148936, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.365981626756792, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 8 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 33, "fitPct": -0.7106078770303697, "index": 99.28939212296963, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 62.42424242424243, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.8191755597579373, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 8.484848484848486, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.365371878175409, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 15.75757575757576, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.116979926964163, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 13 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 3.6363636363636367, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.921488030021976, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 9.696969696969697, "opponentDeltaPct": 19.17564972004449, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 8 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 88.51112253515706, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -2.73190215303579, "zonePPFit": -0.7106078770303697, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October23 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported unit only. Expected PP minutes retain measured current-season deployment; no guessed transfer.", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8484170", "goalieName": "Jacob Fowler", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8476882", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "window": "2021–22 through October21, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked attempts", "coverageNote": "Observed saved encounters only; missing is unavailable, not zero. Not independently established as complete career coverage." }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8484170", "goalieName": "Jacob Fowler", "opponent": "CHI", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "coverageNote": "Last five observed goalie/team regular-season appearances. Historical coverage is not independently established as career-complete." }, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.0080919325411168, "attemptProjection": 0.7834849819913081, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261021", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 10.0, "sog": 6.0, "seconds": 4706.0, "expectedMinutes": 11.204761904761906, "projectedAttempts": 1.4285714285714288, "onNet": 0.5119086460032627, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.916154770019487, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0295873524263528 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 1.0, "sog": 1.0, "seconds": 360.0, "expectedMinutes": 1.2100931340697423, "projectedAttempts": 0.20168218901162374, "onNet": 0.5072900955253896, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9091960351585663, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0070808959552022 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.7520415777261042, "ppAdjusted": 0.14374687954010826, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.8957884572662125, "baseline": 1.1891891891891893, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 74.0, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.0131487500354033, "adjustedSOG": 1.0021583250255621, "reductionPct": 1.0847790128998391, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.7520415777261042, "afterPlayerForm": 0.7379358591666532, "afterRecentDefense": 0.7520415777261042, "afterRecentZones": 0.7520415777261042, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.7520415777261042, "adjusted": 0.7379358591666532, "playerFactor": 0.9812434325744308, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.9180429354089263, "newChartFactor": 0.9180429354089263, "playerRecentAttempts": 6.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 54.2, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.8682656826568266, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0223803456813865, "defenseRecentMinutes": 244.7, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.14374687954010826, "afterPlayerForm": 0.14374687954010826, "afterRecentDefense": 0.13975630069013684, "afterRecentZones": 0.1435194893188263, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.1395352230831575, "adjusted": 0.1395352230831575, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9722388488519644, "oldChartFactor": 0.9786817636890889, "newChartFactor": 0.9763853075355915, "playerRecentAttempts": 1.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 6.0, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.0, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8240542632130013, "defenseRecentMinutes": 33.28333333333333, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.0021583250255621, "adjustedSOG": 1.0021583250255621, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.15789473684210525, "goalHistoryGoals": 15.0, "goalHistoryShots": 95.0, "goalExpected": 0.16361133098721756, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.16361133098721756, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.15092803428072255, "goalProbability": 0.15092803428072255, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12846574633458563, "modelSOG": 1.0021583250255621, "historyGames": 163, "seasonGames": { "2024": 82, "2025": 74, "2026": 7 }, "historyGoals": 30.0, "historyShots": 206.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.14563106796116504, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.14002148573025672, "goalieFactor": 0.9828963086689823, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 41.379372388175206, "btb": { "id": "8476882", "name": "Teuvo Teravainen", "score": 41.379372388175206, "components": { "Goal model": 50.72463768115942, "SOG model": 21.73913043478261, "Unit attack": 0.0, "Opposing lines": 57.95454545454545, "Opposing pairs": 58.391608391608386, "PP": 48.57142857142857, "Shot quality": 37.68115942028985, "Goalie": 37.32394366197183, "Team H2H": 46.48351648351648, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": true, "weightedXGA60": 2.562894865507013, "games": 7, "exactGames": 5, "shares": [ 0.3762953945969206, 0.282908541572838, 0.14807429982511067, 0.19272176400513072 ], "score": 57.95454545454545 }, "pair": { "available": true, "weightedXGA60": 2.5891823970227765, "games": 8, "exactGames": 4, "shares": [ 0.3696519963408762, 0.29465630574074736, 0.21309376741048197, 0.12259793050789441 ], "score": 58.391608391608386 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.017057060514447, "unitPlayers": [ "Tyler Bertuzzi", "Anton Frondell", "Teuvo Teravainen" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 54 } }, { "id": "8479705", "name": "Jeffrey Viel", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "position": "L", "currentGP": 7, "currentSOG": 0.8571428571428571, "priorSOG": 1.3777777777777778, "currentTOI": 9.495238095238095, "currentFiveTOI": 9.397619047619047, "ppShare": 0.012234910277324634, "rate": 1.1779805216878485, "fifty": 1.0375526907640253, "inputs": { "Player": "Jeffrey Viel", "Player_ID": "8479705", "Team": "TBL", "Opponent": "COL", "Position": "L", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.0784426838818744, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.1483815773293378, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 7, "Prior_GP": 45, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.47251076767165, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.689091782796733, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 28.72340425531915, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 10.046666666666665, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 9.397619047619047, "Current_PP_Share": 0.012234910277324634, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.02659476281908626, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 30.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2452.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 4, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.612685185185185, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.0763070331025336, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.056435789378285306, "Other_State_SOG": 0.02, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9914667421548949, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.3777777777777778, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 4", "ppUnit": "PP assignment pending", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-23", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:35:35.615148+00:00", "priorGP": 45.0, "currentTotalSOG": 6.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.07142857142857142, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.86 SOG/game in 7 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 7 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 23 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.633, "currentIXG": 0.09042857142857143, "priorTOI": 11.93, "priorPPTOI": 0.13925925925925925, "deploymentChange": -2.4347619047619045, "ppTOIChange": -0.06783068783068782, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020968", "date": "20260303", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 16.083333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2025020789", "date": "20260121", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "toi": 13.7 } ], "h2hGames": 2, "h2hAvailableGames": 2, "h2hSOG": 1.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "COL", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 273.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.3, "mostAllowedRank": 16, "fiveSogAllowed60": 27.02393375298751, "pkSogAllowed60": 47.51429828420589, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 40.2, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 100.0, "R": 60.0, "L": 45.0, "D": 68.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.0, "L": 4.5, "R": 6.0, "D": 6.8 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 29.0, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.8, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.3, "oppPosSogAllowed": 4.5, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8478406", "team": "COL", "name": "Mackenzie Blackwood", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-23T16:26:32.640Z", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-23", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.8888888888888888, "gaa": 2.897734132893307, "gsax": -2.4450000000000003, "goalsAllowed": 20.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 17.555, "shotsAgainst": 180.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0252999843886221, "factor": 1.0252999843886221, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter for October 23; Daily Faceoff confirmation.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.09272036259019564, "goalHistoryGoals": 3.0, "goalHistoryShots": 71.0, "goalExpected": 0.0979131796244233, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.10039038154036156, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.09327237723058115, "goalProbability": 0.09551574485044918, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.2243367619868028, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 7, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.0560051415801597, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.47251076767165, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 9.397619047619047, "Current_PP_Share": 0.012234910277324634, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.612685185185185, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.056435789378285306, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0289555868427727, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9996701327073623, "Position_Factor": 0.9858567030129328, "Input_GP": 7, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 30.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2452.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.689091782796733, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 28.72340425531915, "Prior_5v5_Min": 11.561111111111112, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.02659476281908626, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9444803098773402, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.062091503267974, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.9897612260628393, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9348099894964067, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9996701327073623, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 6.811731315042573, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five saved meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. Dated 2024–2026 regular-season appearances.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020968", "date": "20260303", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 16.083333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2025020789", "date": "20260121", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "toi": 13.7 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Jeffrey Viel", "Conor Geekie", "Dominic James" ], "lineupSource": "NHL.com projected lineup", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "projectedPosition": "L", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 11, "priorAttempts": 94, "fitPct": -0.341292464572021, "index": 99.65870753542798, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 10.56092843326886, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.604370751696635, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 12 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 18.568665377176014, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.2025641924569896, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 18 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 50.174081237911025, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.26262818174886604, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 41 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 11.83752417794971, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.0950116912032684, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 15 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 2.127659574468085, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.044692588641311204, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 6.731141199226305, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.6551158457307906, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 3 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -0.341292464572021, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October23 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported unit only. Expected PP minutes retain measured current-season deployment; no guessed transfer.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478406", "goalieName": "Mackenzie Blackwood", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8479705", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "window": "2021–22 through October21, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked attempts", "coverageNote": "Observed saved encounters only; missing is unavailable, not zero. Not independently established as complete career coverage." }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478406", "goalieName": "Mackenzie Blackwood", "opponent": "TBL", "games": 4, "availableGames": 4, "shotsAgainst": 99.0, "goalsAgainst": 15.0, "savePct": 0.8484848484848485, "gaa": 4.800426704595964, "gsax": -3.8269999999999995, "log": [ { "gameId": "2024020413", "date": "20241205", "goalieTeam": "SJS", "opponent": "TBL", "shotsAgainst": 23.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 2400.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.907 }, { "gameId": "2023021108", "date": "20240321", "goalieTeam": "SJS", "opponent": "TBL", "shotsAgainst": 21.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.592 }, { "gameId": "2023020106", "date": "20231026", "goalieTeam": "SJS", "opponent": "TBL", "shotsAgainst": 21.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 1649.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.962 }, { "gameId": "2021020264", "date": "20211120", "goalieTeam": "NJD", "opponent": "TBL", "shotsAgainst": 34.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.712 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "coverageNote": "Last five observed goalie/team regular-season appearances. Historical coverage is not independently established as career-complete." }, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.8012657052826344, "attemptProjection": 1.075858376074403, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261021", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 16.0, "sog": 6.0, "seconds": 3947.0, "expectedMinutes": 9.397619047619047, "projectedAttempts": 2.2857142857142856, "onNet": 0.4635086896479846, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0290266956001277, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9868443082842028 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 30.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.056435789378285306, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.5605095541401274, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9649306914974484, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9896116972997503 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.9385620406785187, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.9385620406785187, "baseline": 1.3777777777777778, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 45.0, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.1142483355182224, "adjustedSOG": 1.0775562669185303, "reductionPct": 3.2929884147080313, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.9385620406785187, "afterPlayerForm": 0.9172374221011736, "afterRecentDefense": 0.8978072413139278, "afterRecentZones": 0.9385620406785187, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.8978072413139278, "adjusted": 0.8774085930123653, "playerFactor": 0.977279478976234, "defenseFactor": 0.9565774050108315, "oldChartFactor": 0.9897612260628393, "newChartFactor": 0.9897612260628393, "playerRecentAttempts": 10.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 49.4, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.8322790148448043, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.7977332170880559, "defenseRecentMinutes": 251.61666666666667, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.5, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.594204503506829, "defenseRecentMinutes": 15.05, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.0775562669185303, "adjustedSOG": 1.0560051415801597, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.04411764705882353, "goalHistoryGoals": 3.0, "goalHistoryShots": 68.0, "goalExpected": 0.05196972889799332, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.05196972889799332, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.05064239549118611, "goalProbability": 0.05064239549118611, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12855182002923454, "modelSOG": 1.0560051415801597, "historyGames": 57, "seasonGames": { "2024": 5, "2025": 45, "2026": 7 }, "historyGoals": 3.0, "historyShots": 71.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.04225352112676056, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.09272036259019564, "goalieFactor": 1.0252999843886221, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 44.693285128833196, "btb": { "id": "8479705", "name": "Jeffrey Viel", "score": 44.693285128833196, "components": { "Goal model": 31.884057971014492, "SOG model": 24.63768115942029, "Unit attack": 20.0, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 26.08695652173913, "Goalie": 88.02816901408451, "Team H2H": 57.82051282051282, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.4403994453112747, "unitPlayers": [ "Jeffrey Viel", "Conor Geekie", "Dominic James" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 2, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 46 }, "rosterPosition": "L", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:35:35.615148+00:00" }, { "id": "8475184", "name": "Chris Kreider", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "CHI", "position": "L", "currentGP": 9, "currentSOG": 0.8888888888888888, "priorSOG": 1.8533333333333333, "currentTOI": 15.005555555555556, "currentFiveTOI": 11.316666666666666, "ppShare": 0.5811702595688517, "rate": 1.7919841095516003, "fifty": 1.517252338469166, "inputs": { "Player": "Chris Kreider", "Player_ID": "8475184", "Team": "MTL", "Opponent": "CHI", "Position": "L", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.4400441264729678, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.2322590307029606, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 9, "Prior_GP": 75, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.5346097201767304, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.496665496665496, "Current_PP_SOG60": 2.7252081756245268, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 8.769164636767446, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 11.720333333333333, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 11.316666666666666, "Current_PP_Share": 0.5811702595688517, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.5923559033438394, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1321.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2273.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 5, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.349074074074074, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 2.542146666516881, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 2.527552508513793, "Other_State_SOG": 0.2031111111111111, "Environment_Proxy": 1.1241623654244617, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.8533333333333333, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 2", "ppUnit": "PP2 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-23", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:35:35.615148+00:00", "priorGP": 75.0, "currentTotalSOG": 8.0, "currentPPTOI": 2.446296296296296, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.89 SOG/game in 9 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 9 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 23 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 2.045, "currentIXG": 0.22722222222222221, "priorTOI": 17.04888888888889, "priorPPTOI": 3.1017777777777775, "deploymentChange": -2.043333333333333, "ppTOIChange": -0.6554814814814813, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020460", "date": "20251207", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 18.616666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020403", "date": "20251130", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "toi": 18.666666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2025020091", "date": "20251019", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 20.716666666666665 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 2.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "CHI", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 275.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 30.555555555555557, "mostAllowedRank": 4, "fiveSogAllowed60": 29.037678778147054, "pkSogAllowed60": 51.98019801980198, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 47.0, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 88.0, "D": 70.0, "R": 50.0, "L": 67.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.777777777777779, "L": 7.444444444444445, "R": 5.555555555555555, "D": 7.777777777777778 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 30.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.8, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 30.555555555555557, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.444444444444445, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8481519", "team": "CHI", "name": "Spencer Knight", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-23T17:38:57.370Z", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-23", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.8878923766816144, "gaa": 3.589375448671931, "gsax": -1.0060000000000002, "goalsAllowed": 25.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 23.994, "shotsAgainst": 223.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0134476231189056, "factor": 1.0134476231189056, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter for October 23; Daily Faceoff confirmation.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.14497205073271918, "goalHistoryGoals": 45.0, "goalHistoryShots": 299.0, "goalExpected": 0.20588785734097845, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.20865655965125893, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.18607565319434133, "goalProbability": 0.1883260506358632, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.2250397441521862, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 9, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.4201900042137638, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.5346097201767304, "Current_PP_SOG60": 2.7252081756245268, "Current_5v5_Min": 11.316666666666666, "Current_PP_Share": 0.5811702595688517, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.349074074074074, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 2.527552508513793, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.1111111111111111, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0652555848758556, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0415262503506049, "Position_Factor": 1.0368080348179562, "Input_GP": 9, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1321.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2273.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.496665496665496, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 8.769164636767446, "Prior_5v5_Min": 12.662222222222221, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.5923559033438394, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.15, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.062091503267974, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.25, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.2123228652797922, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.15, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 4.087038789025544, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 2.9532403609516, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 3.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 2.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five saved meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. Dated 2024–2026 regular-season appearances.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020460", "date": "20251207", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 18.616666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020403", "date": "20251130", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "toi": 18.666666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2025020091", "date": "20251019", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 20.716666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2024020444", "date": "20241209", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 15.266666666666667 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Chris Kreider", "Alex Newhook", "Josh Anderson" ], "lineupSource": "NHL.com projected lineup", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "rosterPosition": "L", "projectedPosition": "L", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:35:35.615148+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/montreal-canadiens/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-22T16:05:24.999Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 12, "priorAttempts": 151, "fitPct": 12.032441386804294, "index": 112.0324413868043, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 11.62251655629139, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.6823628774928636, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 25 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 12.94701986754967, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.333228225851869, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 30 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 56.42384105960265, "opponentDeltaPct": 17.724165752730244, "currentAttempts": 8, "priorAttempts": 62 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 10.562913907284768, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.874621784366013, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 21 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 8.178807947019868, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.336952686487635, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 12 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.26490066225165565, "opponentDeltaPct": -11.504840448330498, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 54, "fitPct": 7.077428842659742, "index": 107.07742884265974, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 0.7407407407407408, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.4028975883336443, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 27.703703703703702, "opponentDeltaPct": 13.01574130857064, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 53.629629629629626, "opponentDeltaPct": 8.387003790885572, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 40 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 2.9629629629629632, "opponentDeltaPct": -19.944089475898465, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 14.222222222222221, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.7605264681782984, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.7407407407407408, "opponentDeltaPct": -44.57933713730726, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 12.032441386804294, "zonePPFit": 7.077428842659742, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October23 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported unit only. Expected PP minutes retain measured current-season deployment; no guessed transfer.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481519", "goalieName": "Spencer Knight", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8475184", "goals": 4, "sog": 9, "shootingPct": 0.4444444444444444, "gamesWithAttempts": 4, "recordedAttempts": 14, "log": [ { "goals": 1, "sog": 1, "attempts": 3, "gameId": "2025020403", "date": "20251130" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 3, "gameId": "2025020091", "date": "20251019" }, { "goals": 2, "sog": 3, "attempts": 5, "gameId": "2021020800", "date": "20220201" }, { "goals": 1, "sog": 3, "attempts": 3, "gameId": "2021020180", "date": "20211108" } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "window": "2021–22 through October21, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked attempts", "coverageNote": "Observed saved encounters only; missing is unavailable, not zero. Not independently established as complete career coverage." }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481519", "goalieName": "Spencer Knight", "opponent": "MTL", "games": 4, "availableGames": 4, "shotsAgainst": 118.0, "goalsAgainst": 13.0, "savePct": 0.8898305084745762, "gaa": 3.269526337851055, "gsax": 0.5030000000000001, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020536", "date": "20251218", "goalieTeam": "CHI", "opponent": "MTL", "shotsAgainst": 34.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3563.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.275 }, { "gameId": "2025020031", "date": "20251011", "goalieTeam": "CHI", "opponent": "MTL", "shotsAgainst": 28.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3585.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.45 }, { "gameId": "2024020566", "date": "20241228", "goalieTeam": "FLA", "opponent": "MTL", "shotsAgainst": 25.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3566.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.261 }, { "gameId": "2021021020", "date": "20220324", "goalieTeam": "FLA", "opponent": "MTL", "shotsAgainst": 31.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.517 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "coverageNote": "Last five observed goalie/team regular-season appearances. Historical coverage is not independently established as career-complete." }, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.0097998240211175, "attemptProjection": 1.3520057243447772, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261021", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 14.0, "sog": 6.0, "seconds": 6111.0, "expectedMinutes": 11.316666666666666, "projectedAttempts": 1.5555555555555556, "onNet": 0.4779933361994841, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0621717863909321, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0519965736844064 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 7.0, "sog": 1.0, "seconds": 1321.0, "expectedMinutes": 2.527552508513793, "projectedAttempts": 0.8036124553942415, "onNet": 0.5092189071404626, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.938442005242464, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.067787892452511 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.7987524322821224, "ppAdjusted": 0.27103923078971365, "other": 0.1111111111111111 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.1809027741829472, "baseline": 1.8533333333333333, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 75.0, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.4498749978431018, "adjustedSOG": 1.4491734736875141, "reductionPct": 0.04838514745280076, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.7987524322821224, "afterPlayerForm": 0.7987524322821224, "afterRecentDefense": 0.7987524322821224, "afterRecentZones": 0.7987524322821224, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.7987524322821224, "adjusted": 0.7987524322821224, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.25, "newChartFactor": 1.25, "playerRecentAttempts": 11.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 59.11666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.353679165491965, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.1957808652607136, "defenseRecentMinutes": 241.91666666666666, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.27103923078971365, "afterPlayerForm": 0.26987002386373404, "afterRecentDefense": 0.27103923078971365, "afterRecentZones": 0.27103923078971365, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.27103923078971365, "adjusted": 0.26987002386373404, "playerFactor": 0.9956862077767379, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.2123228652797922, "newChartFactor": 1.2123228652797922, "playerRecentAttempts": 4.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 12.983333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.9690078855675774, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0243821773082225, "defenseRecentMinutes": 25.916666666666668, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.4491734736875141, "adjustedSOG": 1.4201900042137638, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.1564625850340136, "goalHistoryGoals": 23.0, "goalHistoryShots": 147.0, "goalExpected": 0.2803784661203184, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.2803784661203184, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.24450224296358258, "goalProbability": 0.24450224296358258, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12843848242354958, "modelSOG": 1.4201900042137638, "historyGames": 152, "seasonGames": { "2024": 68, "2025": 75, "2026": 9 }, "historyGoals": 45.0, "historyShots": 299.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.1505016722408027, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.14497205073271918, "goalieFactor": 1.0134476231189056, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 62.39442325690235, "btb": { "id": "8475184", "name": "Chris Kreider", "score": 62.39442325690235, "components": { "Goal model": 66.66666666666667, "SOG model": 49.27536231884058, "Unit attack": 66.66666666666667, "Opposing lines": 72.31404958677686, "Opposing pairs": 65.9090909090909, "PP": 44.64285714285714, "Shot quality": 72.46376811594203, "Goalie": 62.67605633802817, "Team H2H": 62.08791208791209, "Goalie H2H": 57.280431432973806 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": true, "weightedXGA60": 2.7405761148248784, "games": 6, "exactGames": 3, "shares": [ 0.2994096310370864, 0.27215542739115856, 0.22803309595562532, 0.20040184561612975 ], "score": 72.31404958677686 }, "pair": { "available": true, "weightedXGA60": 2.8790338786446616, "games": 5, "exactGames": 2, "shares": [ 0.39471284622109964, 0.24218055623406026, 0.27073655193339186, 0.0923700456114482 ], "score": 65.9090909090909 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 3.0953885224685322, "unitPlayers": [ "Chris Kreider", "Alex Newhook", "Josh Anderson" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": 9, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 12 } }, { "id": "8483424", "name": "Owen Beck", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "CHI", "position": "C", "currentGP": 2, "currentSOG": 1.0, "priorSOG": 0.7333333333333333, "currentTOI": 7.375, "currentFiveTOI": 7.375, "ppShare": 0.0, "rate": 0.756230948539092, "fifty": 0.8690730615923221, "inputs": { "Player": "Owen Beck", "Player_ID": "8483424", "Team": "MTL", "Opponent": "CHI", "Position": "L", "Current_GP": 2, "Prior_GP": 15, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 8.135593220338983, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.7901294302649084, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 7.918166666666666, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 7.375, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.0007016042780748665, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 317.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 2, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Measured game-matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Historical skater-team PP minute approximation, existing hybrid method", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.349074074074074, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.0009153986928104577, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.0, "Other_State_SOG": 0.0, "Environment_Proxy": 1.1241623654244617, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 0.7333333333333333, "Status": "Historical input object restored from saved prior summaries", "Availability_Note": "Conditional on dressing", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 0.7089159875347095, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 0.8134961623585254 }, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 4", "ppUnit": "PP assignment pending", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-23", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:35:35.615148+00:00", "priorGP": 15.0, "currentTotalSOG": 2.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.0, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.00 SOG/game in 2 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 2 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 23 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.024999999999999998, "currentIXG": 0.012499999999999999, "priorTOI": 9.18888888888889, "priorPPTOI": 0.0033333333333333335, "deploymentChange": -1.81388888888889, "ppTOIChange": -0.0033333333333333335, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020536", "date": "20251218", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 11.4 } ], "h2hGames": 1, "h2hAvailableGames": 1, "h2hSOG": 0.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "CHI", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 275.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 30.555555555555557, "mostAllowedRank": 4, "fiveSogAllowed60": 29.037678778147054, "pkSogAllowed60": 51.98019801980198, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 47.0, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 88.0, "D": 70.0, "R": 50.0, "L": 67.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.777777777777779, "L": 7.444444444444445, "R": 5.555555555555555, "D": 7.777777777777778 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 30.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.8, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 30.555555555555557, "oppPosSogAllowed": 9.777777777777779, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8481519", "team": "CHI", "name": "Spencer Knight", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-23T17:38:57.370Z", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-23", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.8878923766816144, "gaa": 3.589375448671931, "gsax": -1.0060000000000002, "goalsAllowed": 25.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 23.994, "shotsAgainst": 223.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0134476231189056, "factor": 1.0134476231189056, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter for October 23; Daily Faceoff confirmation.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.11261354835849774, "goalHistoryGoals": 1.0, "goalHistoryShots": 23.0, "goalExpected": 0.09622234056420238, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.09751630233572875, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.09173794987974064, "goalProbability": 0.09291244621057275, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.11744963308321088, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": null, "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 2, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 0.8544472842458082, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 8.135593220338983, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 7.375, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.349074074074074, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.0, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0652555848758556, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0415262503506049, "Position_Factor": 1.0368080348179562, "Input_GP": 2, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 317.0, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.15, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.062091503267974, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.1351103953358679, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0415262503506049, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 8.135593220338983, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 0.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five saved meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. Dated 2024–2026 regular-season appearances.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020536", "date": "20251218", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 11.4 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Kirby Dach", "Owen Beck", "Jake Evans" ], "lineupSource": "NHL.com projected lineup", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 19, "fitPct": 4.503679844528932, "index": 104.50367984452893, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 8.421052631578947, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.6823628774928636, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 6.315789473684212, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.333228225851869, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 10.526315789473683, "opponentDeltaPct": 17.724165752730244, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 6.315789473684212, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.874621784366013, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 68.42105263157895, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.336952686487635, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -11.504840448330498, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 4.503679844528932, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October23 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported unit only. Expected PP minutes retain measured current-season deployment; no guessed transfer.", "availabilitySourceUrl": "https://www.sportsnet.ca/nhl/article/canadiens-recall-forward-owen-beck-from-ahl-laval/", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481519", "goalieName": "Spencer Knight", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8483424", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "window": "2021–22 through October21, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked attempts", "coverageNote": "Observed saved encounters only; missing is unavailable, not zero. Not independently established as complete career coverage." }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481519", "goalieName": "Spencer Knight", "opponent": "MTL", "games": 4, "availableGames": 4, "shotsAgainst": 118.0, "goalsAgainst": 13.0, "savePct": 0.8898305084745762, "gaa": 3.269526337851055, "gsax": 0.5030000000000001, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020536", "date": "20251218", "goalieTeam": "CHI", "opponent": "MTL", "shotsAgainst": 34.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3563.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.275 }, { "gameId": "2025020031", "date": "20251011", "goalieTeam": "CHI", "opponent": "MTL", "shotsAgainst": 28.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3585.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.45 }, { "gameId": "2024020566", "date": "20241228", "goalieTeam": "FLA", "opponent": "MTL", "shotsAgainst": 25.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3566.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.261 }, { "gameId": "2021021020", "date": "20220324", "goalieTeam": "FLA", "opponent": "MTL", "shotsAgainst": 31.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.517 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "coverageNote": "Last five observed goalie/team regular-season appearances. Historical coverage is not independently established as career-complete." }, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.15, "attemptProjection": 0.8409467820322336, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261021", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 3.0, "sog": 2.0, "seconds": 885.0, "expectedMinutes": 7.375, "projectedAttempts": 1.5, "onNet": 0.5017278022031506, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0621717863909321, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0519965736844064 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 0.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.0, "projectedAttempts": 0, "onNet": 0.5605095541401274, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.938442005242464, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.067787892452511 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.9954733910161168, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.9954733910161168, "baseline": 0.7333333333333333, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 15.0, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.8906173679430034, "adjustedSOG": 0.871884983924294, "reductionPct": 2.1033032470469615, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.9954733910161168, "afterPlayerForm": 0.9954733910161168, "afterRecentDefense": 0.9790892043002215, "afterRecentZones": 0.9803886628549305, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.9642527509849346, "adjusted": 0.9642527509849346, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9835413112356812, "oldChartFactor": 1.1351103953358679, "newChartFactor": 1.1053315575157319, "playerRecentAttempts": 3.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 14.75, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9224595246296935, "defenseRecentMinutes": 241.91666666666666, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.0, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0243821773082225, "defenseRecentMinutes": 25.916666666666668, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.871884983924294, "adjustedSOG": 0.8544472842458082, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.07692307692307693, "goalHistoryGoals": 1.0, "goalHistoryShots": 13.0, "goalExpected": 0.058171611426084006, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.058171611426084006, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.05651197978172736, "goalProbability": 0.05651197978172736, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12851466448095222, "modelSOG": 0.8544472842458082, "historyGames": 29, "seasonGames": { "2024": 12, "2025": 15, "2026": 2 }, "historyGoals": 1.0, "historyShots": 23.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.043478260869565216, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.11261354835849774, "goalieFactor": 1.0134476231189056, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": 44.02699644062446, "btb": { "id": "8483424", "name": "Owen Beck", "score": 44.02699644062446, "components": { "Goal model": 30.434782608695652, "SOG model": 11.594202898550725, "Unit attack": 26.666666666666668, "Opposing lines": 62.396694214876035, "Opposing pairs": 77.27272727272728, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 40.57971014492754, "Goalie": 62.67605633802817, "Team H2H": 49.23076923076923, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": true, "weightedXGA60": 2.7155000049715925, "games": 6, "exactGames": 1, "shares": [ 0.2580287752270173, 0.2843369737870208, 0.23226186850548228, 0.22537238248047964 ], "score": 62.396694214876035 }, "pair": { "available": true, "weightedXGA60": 2.8969644436281996, "games": 6, "exactGames": 1, "shares": [ 0.31886489177588423, 0.2865822968796854, 0.34652235376676843, 0.04803045757766193 ], "score": 77.27272727272728 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.441237808923071, "unitPlayers": [ "Kirby Dach", "Owen Beck", "Jake Evans" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 1, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 49 }, "rosterPosition": "L", "projectedPosition": "C", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:35:35.615148+00:00" }, { "id": "8480018", "name": "Nick Suzuki", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "CHI", "position": "C", "currentGP": 9, "currentSOG": 2.888888888888889, "priorSOG": 2.231707317073171, "currentTOI": 21.779629629629632, "currentFiveTOI": 15.787037037037038, "ppShare": 0.7144742630884294, "rate": 2.522639733211244, "fifty": 2.5587697660508413, "inputs": { "Player": "Nick Suzuki", "Player_ID": "8480018", "Team": "MTL", "Opponent": "CHI", "Position": "C", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.9399133162648072, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.8822576610204724, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 9, "Prior_GP": 82, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 6.756598240469208, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.19064402435117, "Current_PP_SOG60": 2.2167487684729066, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 9.119420989143546, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 15.618242999096658, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 15.787037037037038, "Current_PP_Share": 0.7144742630884294, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.7093048128342246, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1624.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2273.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 5, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.349074074074074, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 3.1005567975677337, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 3.1073014941910673, "Other_State_SOG": 0.4621951219512196, "Environment_Proxy": 1.1241623654244617, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 2.231707317073171, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Out (reported)", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "PP assignment pending", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-23", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:35:35.615148+00:00", "priorGP": 82.0, "currentTotalSOG": 26.0, "currentPPTOI": 3.0074074074074075, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.89 SOG/game in 9 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 9 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Listed unavailable on latest report; not projected to dress.", "currentIXGTotal": 3.98, "currentIXG": 0.44222222222222224, "priorTOI": 20.820528455284553, "priorPPTOI": 3.3699186991869916, "deploymentChange": 0.9591011743450792, "ppTOIChange": -0.3625112917795841, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020536", "date": "20251218", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "toi": 17.383333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020031", "date": "20251011", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 21.933333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024021285", "date": "20250414", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 26.683333333333334 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 2.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "CHI", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 275.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 30.555555555555557, "mostAllowedRank": 4, "fiveSogAllowed60": 29.037678778147054, "pkSogAllowed60": 51.98019801980198, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 47.0, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 88.0, "D": 70.0, "R": 50.0, "L": 67.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.777777777777779, "L": 7.444444444444445, "R": 5.555555555555555, "D": 7.777777777777778 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 30.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.8, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 30.555555555555557, "oppPosSogAllowed": 9.777777777777779, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8481519", "team": "CHI", "name": "Spencer Knight", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-23T17:38:57.370Z", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-23", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.8878923766816144, "gaa": 3.589375448671931, "gsax": -1.0060000000000002, "goalsAllowed": 25.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 23.994, "shotsAgainst": 223.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0134476231189056, "factor": 1.0134476231189056, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter for October 23; Daily Faceoff confirmation.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.159742785415345, "goalHistoryGoals": 64.0, "goalHistoryShots": 381.0, "goalExpected": 0.4492929623880103, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.4553348848161809, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.3619208618791454, "goalProbability": 0.3657644634708808, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.38436015917354127, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 9, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 2.8126025298720685, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 6.756598240469208, "Current_PP_SOG60": 2.2167487684729066, "Current_5v5_Min": 15.787037037037038, "Current_PP_Share": 0.7144742630884294, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.349074074074074, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 3.1073014941910673, "Remaining_State_SOG": 1.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0652555848758556, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0415262503506049, "Position_Factor": 0.9909330806239977, "Input_GP": 9, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1624.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2273.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.19064402435117, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 9.119420989143546, "Prior_5v5_Min": 15.224390243902441, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.7093048128342246, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0170578801574575, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.437908496732026, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.1876502206377522, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.1145600537270774, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.15, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.8370490474260235, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 2.406417112299465, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five saved meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. Dated 2024–2026 regular-season appearances.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020536", "date": "20251218", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "toi": 17.383333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020031", "date": "20251011", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 21.933333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024021285", "date": "20250414", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 26.683333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020616", "date": "20250103", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 21.883333333333333 } ], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "NHL.com projected lineup", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 34, "priorAttempts": 180, "fitPct": 6.25500735459174, "index": 106.25500735459174, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 19.908496732026144, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.6823628774928636, "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 34 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 25.647058823529413, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.333228225851869, "currentAttempts": 10, "priorAttempts": 36 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 18.588235294117645, "opponentDeltaPct": 17.724165752730244, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 36 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 15.490196078431373, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.874621784366013, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 30 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 14.614379084967322, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.336952686487635, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 34 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 5.751633986928105, "opponentDeltaPct": -11.504840448330498, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 10 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 71, "fitPct": 3.8186684575692453, "index": 103.81866845756925, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 1.1267605633802817, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.4028975883336443, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 23.380281690140844, "opponentDeltaPct": 13.01574130857064, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 55.21126760563379, "opponentDeltaPct": 8.387003790885572, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 27 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 18.028169014084508, "opponentDeltaPct": -19.944089475898465, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 32 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 1.6901408450704227, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.7605264681782984, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.5633802816901409, "opponentDeltaPct": -44.57933713730726, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 6.25500735459174, "zonePPFit": 3.8186684575692453, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October23 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported unit only. Expected PP minutes retain measured current-season deployment; no guessed transfer.", "availabilitySourceUrl": "https://sports.yahoo.com/articles/canadiens-ready-road-trip-without-203005090.html", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481519", "goalieName": "Spencer Knight", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8480018", "goals": 1, "sog": 8, "shootingPct": 0.125, "gamesWithAttempts": 4, "recordedAttempts": 13, "log": [ { "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1, "gameId": "2025020536", "date": "20251218" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 5, "gameId": "2025020031", "date": "20251011" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2, "gameId": "2024020566", "date": "20241228" }, { "goals": 1, "sog": 3, "attempts": 5, "gameId": "2021021020", "date": "20220324" } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "window": "2021–22 through October21, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked attempts", "coverageNote": "Observed saved encounters only; missing is unavailable, not zero. Not independently established as complete career coverage." }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481519", "goalieName": "Spencer Knight", "opponent": "MTL", "games": 4, "availableGames": 4, "shotsAgainst": 118.0, "goalsAgainst": 13.0, "savePct": 0.8898305084745762, "gaa": 3.269526337851055, "gsax": 0.5030000000000001, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020536", "date": "20251218", "goalieTeam": "CHI", "opponent": "MTL", "shotsAgainst": 34.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3563.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.275 }, { "gameId": "2025020031", "date": "20251011", "goalieTeam": "CHI", "opponent": "MTL", "shotsAgainst": 28.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3585.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.45 }, { "gameId": "2024020566", "date": "20241228", "goalieTeam": "FLA", "opponent": "MTL", "shotsAgainst": 25.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3566.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.261 }, { "gameId": "2021021020", "date": "20220324", "goalieTeam": "FLA", "opponent": "MTL", "shotsAgainst": 31.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.517 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "coverageNote": "Last five observed goalie/team regular-season appearances. Historical coverage is not independently established as career-complete." }, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 3.176466490687784, "attemptProjection": 3.484122500256481, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261021", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 36.0, "sog": 16.0, "seconds": 8525.0, "expectedMinutes": 15.787037037037038, "projectedAttempts": 4.0, "onNet": 0.48002772142206424, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0621717863909321, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0519965736844064 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 6.0, "sog": 1.0, "seconds": 1624.0, "expectedMinutes": 3.1073014941910673, "projectedAttempts": 0.6888106760522069, "onNet": 0.490546218487395, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.938442005242464, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.067787892452511 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 2.094989210865732, "ppAdjusted": 0.23530528460640035, "other": 1.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 3.3302944954721325, "baseline": 2.231707317073171, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 82.0, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 2.890859624112548, "adjustedSOG": 2.870002581502111, "reductionPct": 0.7214823728025177, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 2.094989210865732, "afterPlayerForm": 2.094989210865732, "afterRecentDefense": 2.060508435479487, "afterRecentZones": 2.094989210865732, "afterDefenseAndZones": 2.060508435479487, "adjusted": 2.060508435479487, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9835413112356812, "oldChartFactor": 1.1876502206377522, "newChartFactor": 1.1876502206377522, "playerRecentAttempts": 22.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 84.75, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.0245274773298372, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9224595246296935, "defenseRecentMinutes": 241.91666666666666, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.23530528460640035, "afterPlayerForm": 0.23530528460640035, "afterRecentDefense": 0.23530528460640035, "afterRecentZones": 0.23502432230858367, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.23502432230858367, "adjusted": 0.23502432230858367, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.1145600537270774, "newChartFactor": 1.1098161588601145, "playerRecentAttempts": 6.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 16.9, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.601577909270217, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0243821773082225, "defenseRecentMinutes": 25.916666666666668, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 2.870002581502111, "adjustedSOG": 2.8126025298720685, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.16267942583732056, "goalHistoryGoals": 34.0, "goalHistoryShots": 209.0, "goalExpected": 0.4103815833932167, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.4103815833932167, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.3366029394684903, "goalProbability": 0.3366029394684903, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12836279784780938, "modelSOG": 2.8126025298720685, "historyGames": 173, "seasonGames": { "2024": 82, "2025": 82, "2026": 9 }, "historyGoals": 64.0, "historyShots": 381.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.1679790026246719, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.159742785415345, "goalieFactor": 1.0134476231189056, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8483447", "name": "Conor Geekie", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "position": "C", "currentGP": 9, "currentSOG": 1.1111111111111112, "priorSOG": 0.7142857142857143, "currentTOI": 11.987037037037037, "currentFiveTOI": 10.777777777777779, "ppShare": 0.2183242506811989, "rate": 0.7839464903207076, "fifty": 0.9020893018217387, "inputs": { "Player": "Conor Geekie", "Player_ID": "8483447", "Team": "TBL", "Opponent": "COL", "Position": "C", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 0.7106191300547565, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 0.9660166565114177, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 9, "Prior_GP": 14, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.948453608247423, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.504504504504505, "Current_PP_SOG60": 11.232449297971918, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 10.398730158730158, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 10.777777777777779, "Current_PP_Share": 0.2183242506811989, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.05851502854391637, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 641.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2936.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 5, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.612685185185185, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.7859161472612393, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 1.0070610366838229, "Other_State_SOG": 0.0, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9914667421548949, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 0.7142857142857143, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 4", "ppUnit": "PP2 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-23", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:35:35.615148+00:00", "priorGP": 14.0, "currentTotalSOG": 10.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.1870370370370371, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.11 SOG/game in 9 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 9 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 23 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.092, "currentIXG": 0.12133333333333335, "priorTOI": 9.892857142857142, "priorPPTOI": 0.29642857142857143, "deploymentChange": 2.094179894179895, "ppTOIChange": 0.8906084656084656, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2024020334", "date": "20241125", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 12.2 }, { "gameId": "2024020157", "date": "20241030", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "toi": 10.9 } ], "h2hGames": 2, "h2hAvailableGames": 2, "h2hSOG": 1.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "COL", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 273.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.3, "mostAllowedRank": 16, "fiveSogAllowed60": 27.02393375298751, "pkSogAllowed60": 47.51429828420589, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 40.2, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 100.0, "R": 60.0, "L": 45.0, "D": 68.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.0, "L": 4.5, "R": 6.0, "D": 6.8 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 29.0, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.8, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.3, "oppPosSogAllowed": 10.0, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8478406", "team": "COL", "name": "Mackenzie Blackwood", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-23T16:26:32.640Z", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-23", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.8888888888888888, "gaa": 2.897734132893307, "gsax": -2.4450000000000003, "goalsAllowed": 20.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 17.555, "shotsAgainst": 180.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0252999843886221, "factor": 1.0252999843886221, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter for October 23; Daily Faceoff confirmation.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.12694429835898988, "goalHistoryGoals": 10.0, "goalHistoryShots": 80.0, "goalExpected": 0.10314984971855691, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.10575953930612512, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.09800819986346554, "goalProbability": 0.10035904964405551, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.23508497805899697, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 9, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 0.8125599262981952, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.948453608247423, "Current_PP_SOG60": 11.232449297971918, "Current_5v5_Min": 10.777777777777779, "Current_PP_Share": 0.2183242506811989, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.612685185185185, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.0070610366838229, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0289555868427727, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9996701327073623, "Position_Factor": 1.014013991473008, "Input_GP": 9, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 641.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2936.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.504504504504505, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 9.514285714285714, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.05851502854391637, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0573770491803278, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.382352941176471, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.9980443283712023, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.9307549177224957, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.055309166884304, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9304478921176774, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.044035228182546, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 12.020033388981636, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five saved meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. Dated 2024–2026 regular-season appearances.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2024020334", "date": "20241125", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 12.2 }, { "gameId": "2024020157", "date": "20241030", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "toi": 10.9 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Jeffrey Viel", "Conor Geekie", "Dominic James" ], "lineupSource": "NHL.com projected lineup", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "projectedPosition": "C", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/tampa-bay-lightning/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-22T18:13:31.663Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 10, "priorAttempts": 14, "fitPct": -0.06518905429325628, "index": 99.93481094570674, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 8.857142857142858, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.604370751696635, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 23.42857142857143, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.2025641924569896, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 29.714285714285715, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.26262818174886604, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 23.142857142857146, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.0950116912032684, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 14.857142857142858, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.044692588641311204, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.6551158457307906, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 1, "fitPct": -2.308169409250141, "index": 97.69183059074986, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 30.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.125139957052596, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 70.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.208159137665604, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.03906538797926373, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.5428724091186723, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 15.136821787266058, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -37.289476773404765, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -0.06518905429325628, "zonePPFit": -2.308169409250141, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October23 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported unit only. Expected PP minutes retain measured current-season deployment; no guessed transfer.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478406", "goalieName": "Mackenzie Blackwood", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8483447", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "window": "2021–22 through October21, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked attempts", "coverageNote": "Observed saved encounters only; missing is unavailable, not zero. Not independently established as complete career coverage." }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478406", "goalieName": "Mackenzie Blackwood", "opponent": "TBL", "games": 4, "availableGames": 4, "shotsAgainst": 99.0, "goalsAgainst": 15.0, "savePct": 0.8484848484848485, "gaa": 4.800426704595964, "gsax": -3.8269999999999995, "log": [ { "gameId": "2024020413", "date": "20241205", "goalieTeam": "SJS", "opponent": "TBL", "shotsAgainst": 23.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 2400.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.907 }, { "gameId": "2023021108", "date": "20240321", "goalieTeam": "SJS", "opponent": "TBL", "shotsAgainst": 21.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.592 }, { "gameId": "2023020106", "date": "20231026", "goalieTeam": "SJS", "opponent": "TBL", "shotsAgainst": 21.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 1649.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.962 }, { "gameId": "2021020264", "date": "20211120", "goalieTeam": "NJD", "opponent": "TBL", "shotsAgainst": 34.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.712 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "coverageNote": "Last five observed goalie/team regular-season appearances. Historical coverage is not independently established as career-complete." }, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.1134693451385547, "attemptProjection": 0.8074674334186774, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261021", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 12.0, "sog": 8.0, "seconds": 5820.0, "expectedMinutes": 10.777777777777779, "projectedAttempts": 1.3333333333333335, "onNet": 0.5276535283902541, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0290266956001277, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9868443082842028 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 2.0, "sog": 2.0, "seconds": 641.0, "expectedMinutes": 1.0070610366838229, "projectedAttempts": 0.1885293672419013, "onNet": 0.5167652859960552, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9649306914974484, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9896116972997503 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.8262439140664004, "ppAdjusted": 0.13422447521221564, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.9604683892786161, "baseline": 0.7142857142857143, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 14.0, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.8619953192814553, "adjustedSOG": 0.8291427819369339, "reductionPct": 3.8112199230857513, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.8262439140664004, "afterPlayerForm": 0.7715639566695469, "afterRecentDefense": 0.8262439140664004, "afterRecentZones": 0.8262439140664004, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.8262439140664004, "adjusted": 0.7715639566695469, "playerFactor": 0.9338210467079348, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.9980443283712023, "newChartFactor": 0.9980443283712023, "playerRecentAttempts": 4.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 58.46666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.5530216647662486, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0595533498759306, "defenseRecentMinutes": 251.61666666666667, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.13422447521221564, "afterPlayerForm": 0.13422447521221564, "afterRecentDefense": 0.13422447521221564, "afterRecentZones": 0.13415020370153335, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.13415020370153335, "adjusted": 0.13415020370153335, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.9307549177224957, "newChartFactor": 0.9299667538454756, "playerRecentAttempts": 1.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 5.316666666666666, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.0047021943573666, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.594204503506829, "defenseRecentMinutes": 15.05, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.8291427819369339, "adjustedSOG": 0.8125599262981952, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.1, "goalHistoryGoals": 2.0, "goalHistoryShots": 20.0, "goalExpected": 0.07839464903207077, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.07839464903207077, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.07540053775095637, "goalProbability": 0.07540053775095637, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1284997370461818, "modelSOG": 0.8125599262981952, "historyGames": 75, "seasonGames": { "2024": 52, "2025": 14, "2026": 9 }, "historyGoals": 10.0, "historyShots": 80.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.125, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.12694429835898988, "goalieFactor": 1.0252999843886221, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 44.39387439463986, "btb": { "id": "8483447", "name": "Conor Geekie", "score": 44.39387439463986, "components": { "Goal model": 34.78260869565217, "SOG model": 7.246376811594203, "Unit attack": 20.0, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 44.285714285714285, "Shot quality": 34.78260869565217, "Goalie": 88.02816901408451, "Team H2H": 55.76923076923077, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.4403994453112747, "unitPlayers": [ "Jeffrey Viel", "Conor Geekie", "Dominic James" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 2, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 48 }, "rosterPosition": "R", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:35:35.615148+00:00" }, { "id": "8478851", "name": "Alexandre Carrier", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "CHI", "position": "D", "currentGP": 9, "currentSOG": 1.2222222222222223, "priorSOG": 0.7671232876712328, "currentTOI": 19.546296296296294, "currentFiveTOI": 15.438888888888888, "ppShare": 0.0026396832380114386, "rate": 0.8928251300352756, "fifty": 1.002589634845385, "inputs": { "Player": "Alexandre Carrier", "Player_ID": "8478851", "Team": "MTL", "Opponent": "CHI", "Position": "D", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 0.6710603713123104, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 0.7584140430517926, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 9, "Prior_GP": 73, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.8862900323857503, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 2.7769948524721486, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 15.424414003044138, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 15.438888888888888, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0026396832380114386, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.005718555417185555, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 6.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2273.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 5, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.349074074074074, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.015497250885753681, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.01148017793420345, "Other_State_SOG": 0.0715372907153729, "Environment_Proxy": 1.1241623654244617, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 0.7671232876712328, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 2", "ppUnit": "PP assignment pending", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-23", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:35:35.615148+00:00", "priorGP": 73.0, "currentTotalSOG": 11.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.011111111111111112, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.22 SOG/game in 9 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 9 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 23 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.623, "currentIXG": 0.06922222222222223, "priorTOI": 19.083333333333332, "priorPPTOI": 0.0271689497716895, "deploymentChange": 0.4629629629629619, "ppTOIChange": -0.01605783866057839, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020536", "date": "20251218", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 24.966666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2025020031", "date": "20251011", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 13.716666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024021285", "date": "20250414", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 20.666666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2024020616", "date": "20250103", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 20.2 }, { "gameId": "2024020120", "date": "20241025", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 21.233333333333334 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 5, "h2hSOG": 1.4, "opponentDefense": { "team": "CHI", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 275.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 30.555555555555557, "mostAllowedRank": 4, "fiveSogAllowed60": 29.037678778147054, "pkSogAllowed60": 51.98019801980198, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 47.0, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 88.0, "D": 70.0, "R": 50.0, "L": 67.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.777777777777779, "L": 7.444444444444445, "R": 5.555555555555555, "D": 7.777777777777778 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 30.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.8, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 30.555555555555557, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.777777777777778, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8481519", "team": "CHI", "name": "Spencer Knight", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-23T17:38:57.370Z", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-23", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.8878923766816144, "gaa": 3.589375448671931, "gsax": -1.0060000000000002, "goalsAllowed": 25.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 23.994, "shotsAgainst": 223.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0134476231189056, "factor": 1.0134476231189056, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter for October 23; Daily Faceoff confirmation.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.06731605775083088, "goalHistoryGoals": 11.0, "goalHistoryShots": 149.0, "goalExpected": 0.0693043309308, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.07023630945366531, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.06695731688236513, "goalProbability": 0.06782648753684373, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.08691706544785988, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 9, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.029536387697103, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.8862900323857503, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 15.438888888888888, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0026396832380114386, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.349074074074074, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.01148017793420345, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.2222222222222222, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0652555848758556, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0415262503506049, "Position_Factor": 0.9933299562396771, "Input_GP": 9, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 6.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2273.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 2.7769948524721486, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 15.390639269406392, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.005718555417185555, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0278141974152464, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.34640522875817, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.05539771177648, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0847527520834301, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0415262503506049, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 4.021784666945957, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 1.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five saved meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. Dated 2024–2026 regular-season appearances.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020536", "date": "20251218", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 24.966666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2025020031", "date": "20251011", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 13.716666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024021285", "date": "20250414", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 20.666666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2024020616", "date": "20250103", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 20.2 }, { "gameId": "2024020120", "date": "20241025", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 21.233333333333334 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Kaiden Guhle", "Alexandre Carrier" ], "lineupSource": "NHL.com projected lineup", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:35:35.615148+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 13, "priorAttempts": 90, "fitPct": 1.8465903925493308, "index": 101.84659039254933, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 53.47008547008547, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.6823628774928636, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 58 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 7.282051282051283, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.333228225851869, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 3.111111111111111, "opponentDeltaPct": 17.724165752730244, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 10.564102564102564, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.874621784366013, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 15.008547008547007, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.336952686487635, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 13 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 10.564102564102564, "opponentDeltaPct": -11.504840448330498, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 3 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 1.8465903925493308, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October23 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported unit only. Expected PP minutes retain measured current-season deployment; no guessed transfer.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481519", "goalieName": "Spencer Knight", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8478851", "goals": 0, "sog": 4, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 2, "recordedAttempts": 6, "log": [ { "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 4, "gameId": "2025020536", "date": "20251218" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2, "gameId": "2025020031", "date": "20251011" } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "window": "2021–22 through October21, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked attempts", "coverageNote": "Observed saved encounters only; missing is unavailable, not zero. Not independently established as complete career coverage." }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481519", "goalieName": "Spencer Knight", "opponent": "MTL", "games": 4, "availableGames": 4, "shotsAgainst": 118.0, "goalsAgainst": 13.0, "savePct": 0.8898305084745762, "gaa": 3.269526337851055, "gsax": 0.5030000000000001, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020536", "date": "20251218", "goalieTeam": "CHI", "opponent": "MTL", "shotsAgainst": 34.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3563.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.275 }, { "gameId": "2025020031", "date": "20251011", "goalieTeam": "CHI", "opponent": "MTL", "shotsAgainst": 28.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3585.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.45 }, { "gameId": "2024020566", "date": "20241228", "goalieTeam": "FLA", "opponent": "MTL", "shotsAgainst": 25.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3566.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.261 }, { "gameId": "2021021020", "date": "20220324", "goalieTeam": "FLA", "opponent": "MTL", "shotsAgainst": 31.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.517 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "coverageNote": "Last five observed goalie/team regular-season appearances. Historical coverage is not independently established as career-complete." }, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.3069749743056525, "attemptProjection": 1.2427615789611788, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261021", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 20.0, "sog": 9.0, "seconds": 8337.0, "expectedMinutes": 15.438888888888888, "projectedAttempts": 2.2222222222222223, "onNet": 0.41099182627790654, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0621717863909321, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0519965736844064 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 6.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.01148017793420345, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.425764192139738, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.938442005242464, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.067787892452511 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.0526460544111935, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.2222222222222222 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.2748682766334156, "baseline": 0.7671232876712328, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 73.0, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.0717702810485426, "adjustedSOG": 1.050547334384799, "reductionPct": 1.9801768195121472, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.0526460544111935, "afterPlayerForm": 1.0521768540804983, "afterRecentDefense": 1.021580296322833, "afterRecentZones": 1.0486767279182763, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.0177281128487738, "adjusted": 1.0172744766382875, "playerFactor": 0.9995542658154382, "defenseFactor": 0.9704879356568364, "oldChartFactor": 1.05539771177648, "newChartFactor": 1.0476738906755467, "playerRecentAttempts": 12.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 83.58333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.9974476570289132, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.860962222987714, "defenseRecentMinutes": 241.91666666666666, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.0, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0243821773082225, "defenseRecentMinutes": 25.916666666666668, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.050547334384799, "adjustedSOG": 1.029536387697103, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.11940298507462686, "goalHistoryGoals": 8.0, "goalHistoryShots": 67.0, "goalExpected": 0.1066059856758538, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.1066059856758538, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.10112022526792507, "goalProbability": 0.10112022526792507, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.057616983799568915, "modelSOG": 1.029536387697103, "historyGames": 161, "seasonGames": { "2024": 79, "2025": 73, "2026": 9 }, "historyGoals": 11.0, "historyShots": 149.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.0738255033557047, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.06731605775083088, "goalieFactor": 1.0134476231189056, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 40.64893284121698, "btb": { "id": "8478851", "name": "Alexandre Carrier", "score": 40.64893284121698, "components": { "Goal model": 18.840579710144926, "SOG model": 23.18840579710145, "Unit attack": 45.45454545454545, "Opposing lines": 80.76923076923077, "Opposing pairs": 69.58041958041957, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 13.043478260869565, "Goalie": 62.67605633802817, "Team H2H": 41.02564102564102, "Goalie H2H": 49.32659932659933 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": true, "games": 8, "exactGames": 5, "individualGames": 3, "roleGames": 1, "exactMinutes": 62.3, "exactWeight": 0.5094031071136549, "individualWeight": 0.2538860103626943, "venueGames": 3, "venueFallback": false, "shares": [ 0.30516602971328144, 0.23285158244584445, 0.17003507327607242, 0.13820408091495628, 0.15374323364984538 ], "units": [ { "unit": 1, "names": [ "Roman Kantserov", "Connor Bedard", "Patrick Kane" ], "share": 0.30516602971328144, "xGA60": 3.034330357181087 }, { "unit": 2, "names": [ "Tyler Bertuzzi", "Anton Frondell", "Teuvo Teravainen" ], "share": 0.23285158244584445, "xGA60": 2.9573904009618985 }, { "unit": 4, "names": [ "Cole Smith", "Ryan Greene", "Jordan Greenway" ], "share": 0.17003507327607242, "xGA60": 2.1366414316797844 }, { "unit": 3, "names": [ "Oliver Moore", "Frank Nazar", "Ryan Donato" ], "share": 0.13820408091495628, "xGA60": 2.6268627576253714 } ], "otherShare": 0.15374323364984538, "weightedXGA60": 2.808987725189518, "score": 80.76923076923077 }, "pair": { "available": true, "games": 8, "exactGames": 5, "individualGames": 3, "roleGames": 1, "exactMinutes": 62.3, "exactWeight": 0.5094031071136549, "individualWeight": 0.2538860103626943, "venueGames": 3, "venueFallback": false, "shares": [ 0.3337151033854844, 0.27754270768106304, 0.21447438748901682, 0.1742678014444358 ], "units": [ { "unit": 2, "names": [ "Wyatt Kaiser", "Artyom Levshunov" ], "share": 0.3337151033854844, "xGA60": 2.7395083310694384 }, { "unit": 1, "names": [ "Alex Vlasic", "Ian Cole" ], "share": 0.27754270768106304, "xGA60": 2.7281475578627203 }, { "unit": 3, "names": [ "Ethan Del Mastro", "Sam Rinzel" ], "share": 0.21447438748901682, "xGA60": 3.1610539346551283 } ], "otherShare": 0.1742678014444358, "weightedXGA60": 2.8798728174412145, "score": 69.58041958041957 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.7505512287450475, "unitPlayers": [ "Kaiden Guhle", "Alexandre Carrier" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 5, "goalieH2HShots": 4, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 56 } }, { "id": "8482768", "name": "Fedor Svechkov", "team": "COL", "opponent": "TBL", "position": "C", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 1.0, "priorSOG": 1.0, "currentTOI": 13.896666666666667, "currentFiveTOI": 12.603333333333333, "ppShare": 0.004866969500324465, "rate": 0.9367861373782183, "fifty": 0.9431582889546832, "inputs": { "Player": "Fedor Svechkov", "Player_ID": "8482768", "Team": "COL", "Opponent": "TBL", "Position": "C", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 0.9009813584865287, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 0.905231221942789, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 10, "Prior_GP": 70, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.760645331922772, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.898584003061615, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 9.94475138121547, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 12.181904761904761, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 12.603333333333333, "Current_PP_Share": 0.004866969500324465, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.06403504482712007, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 15.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3082.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 5, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.795185185185185, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.10845458351759542, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.023338020044704016, "Other_State_SOG": 0.038571428571428576, "Environment_Proxy": 0.8844868901771036, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.0, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 3", "ppUnit": "PP assignment pending", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-23", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:35:35.615148+00:00", "priorGP": 70.0, "currentTotalSOG": 10.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.025, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.00 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 23 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.3880000000000001, "currentIXG": 0.1388, "priorTOI": 12.076666666666666, "priorPPTOI": 0.2585714285714286, "deploymentChange": 1.8200000000000003, "ppTOIChange": -0.23357142857142862, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021168", "date": "20260329", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 14.916666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020369", "date": "20241129", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 13.433333333333334 } ], "h2hGames": 2, "h2hAvailableGames": 2, "h2hSOG": 2.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "TBL", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 218.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 24.22222222222222, "mostAllowedRank": 29, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.310572168589594, "pkSogAllowed60": 47.9002079002079, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 36.333333333333336, "positionUnassignedSOG": 1.0, "positionTotals": { "L": 36.0, "R": 49.0, "D": 66.0, "C": 66.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.333333333333333, "L": 4.0, "R": 5.444444444444445, "D": 7.333333333333333 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 24.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.25, "positionSourceDifference": 1.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 24.22222222222222, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.333333333333333, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8476883", "team": "TBL", "name": "Andrei Vasilevskiy", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-23T17:44:29.480Z", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-23", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.8975903614457832, "gaa": 2.4556616643929057, "gsax": 1.495000000000001, "goalsAllowed": 17.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 18.495, "shotsAgainst": 166.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9911791106382869, "factor": 0.9911791106382869, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter for October 23; Daily Faceoff confirmation.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.10596161007605376, "goalHistoryGoals": 13.0, "goalHistoryShots": 144.0, "goalExpected": 0.10544692918984078, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.1045167934939248, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.10007776881862548, "goalProbability": 0.0992403296221865, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.08374391964389855, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 0.9951427607994672, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.760645331922772, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 12.603333333333333, "Current_PP_Share": 0.004866969500324465, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.795185185185185, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.023338020044704016, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9588832837562793, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0032616490671127, "Position_Factor": 0.985038993166415, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 15.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3082.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.898584003061615, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 9.94475138121547, "Prior_5v5_Min": 11.198571428571428, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.06403504482712007, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.894372357486514, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.437908496732026, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.9307661563303953, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0032616490671127, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 4.728546409807356, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 2.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 2.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five saved meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. Dated 2024–2026 regular-season appearances.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021168", "date": "20260329", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 14.916666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020369", "date": "20241129", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 13.433333333333334 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Jaden Schwartz", "Fedor Svechkov", "T.J. Hughes" ], "lineupSource": "NHL.com projected lineup", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "rosterPosition": "C", "projectedPosition": "C", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:35:35.615148+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 16, "priorAttempts": 94, "fitPct": -2.3077947889868256, "index": 97.69220521101317, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 30.159574468085104, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.515281930842562, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 18 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 24.361702127659573, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.609652563126957, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 22 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 30.23936170212766, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.85621916135625, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 27 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 4.25531914893617, "opponentDeltaPct": -12.897287560223589, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 10 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 5.531914893617022, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.418201733515886, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 13 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 5.452127659574469, "opponentDeltaPct": -11.722552252061064, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 4 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -2.3077947889868256, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October23 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported unit only. Expected PP minutes retain measured current-season deployment; no guessed transfer.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476883", "goalieName": "Andrei Vasilevskiy", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8482768", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "window": "2021–22 through October21, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked attempts", "coverageNote": "Observed saved encounters only; missing is unavailable, not zero. Not independently established as complete career coverage." }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476883", "goalieName": "Andrei Vasilevskiy", "opponent": "COL", "games": 5, "availableGames": 13, "shotsAgainst": 157.0, "goalsAgainst": 12.0, "savePct": 0.9235668789808917, "gaa": 2.4254674077817078, "gsax": 7.298, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020668", "date": "20260106", "goalieTeam": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "shotsAgainst": 33.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.223 }, { "gameId": "2025020209", "date": "20251104", "goalieTeam": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "shotsAgainst": 33.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3420.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.409 }, { "gameId": "2024020334", "date": "20241125", "goalieTeam": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "shotsAgainst": 25.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.459 }, { "gameId": "2024020157", "date": "20241030", "goalieTeam": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "shotsAgainst": 35.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.364 }, { "gameId": "2023020842", "date": "20240215", "goalieTeam": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "shotsAgainst": 31.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3591.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.843 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "coverageNote": "Last five observed goalie/team regular-season appearances. Historical coverage is not independently established as career-complete." }, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.8500000000000002, "attemptProjection": 1.1497011842311864, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261021", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 27.0, "sog": 10.0, "seconds": 7562.0, "expectedMinutes": 12.603333333333333, "projectedAttempts": 2.7, "onNet": 0.45821277977009767, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9399951775173531, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9886177218479464 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 15.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.023338020044704016, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.5294117647058824, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9635919869864824, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0126481883452998 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.9998505921155934, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.9998505921155934, "baseline": 1.0, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 70.0, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.999910355269356, "adjustedSOG": 0.9951427607994672, "reductionPct": 0.4768021897927577, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.9998505921155934, "afterPlayerForm": 0.9919046013324453, "afterRecentDefense": 0.9998505921155934, "afterRecentZones": 0.9998505921155934, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.9998505921155934, "adjusted": 0.9919046013324453, "playerFactor": 0.9920528218457769, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.9307661563303953, "newChartFactor": 0.9307661563303953, "playerRecentAttempts": 13.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 63.96666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.9486615328199487, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.1463936017832808, "defenseRecentMinutes": 244.35, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.25, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.04528859527121, "defenseRecentMinutes": 23.966666666666665, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.9951427607994672, "adjustedSOG": 0.9951427607994672, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.0625, "goalHistoryGoals": 5.0, "goalHistoryShots": 80.0, "goalExpected": 0.05854913358613864, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.05854913358613864, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.056868100191203114, "goalProbability": 0.056868100191203114, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1285463285855712, "modelSOG": 0.9951427607994672, "historyGames": 132, "seasonGames": { "2024": 52, "2025": 70, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 13.0, "historyShots": 144.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.09027777777777778, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.10596161007605376, "goalieFactor": 0.9911791106382869, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 39.822174460984094, "btb": { "id": "8482768", "name": "Fedor Svechkov", "score": 39.822174460984094, "components": { "Goal model": 36.231884057971016, "SOG model": 20.28985507246377, "Unit attack": 46.666666666666664, "Opposing lines": 32.64462809917356, "Opposing pairs": 41.47727272727273, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 42.028985507246375, "Goalie": 11.971830985915492, "Team H2H": 51.92307692307692, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": true, "weightedXGA60": 2.0997704529082193, "games": 6, "exactGames": 6, "shares": [ 0.26001637118883775, 0.2858104031442933, 0.2229862351875911, 0.2311869904792777 ], "score": 32.64462809917356 }, "pair": { "available": true, "weightedXGA60": 2.353270641533208, "games": 3, "exactGames": 2, "shares": [ 0.32912307329380575, 0.3049238599856305, 0.3413828848926681, 0.024570181827895672 ], "score": 41.47727272727273 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.5735984212866643, "unitPlayers": [ "Jaden Schwartz", "Fedor Svechkov", "T.J. Hughes" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 2, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 57 } }, { "id": "8474141", "name": "Patrick Kane", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "MTL", "position": "R", "currentGP": 9, "currentSOG": 1.7777777777777777, "priorSOG": 2.5223880597014925, "currentTOI": 19.453703703703706, "currentFiveTOI": 15.40925925925926, "ppShare": 0.748013090229079, "rate": 2.515761940690084, "fifty": 2.2900225462167034, "inputs": { "Player": "Patrick Kane", "Player_ID": "8474141", "Team": "CHI", "Opponent": "MTL", "Position": "R", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 2.742890125574429, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 2.4594945569210878, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 9, "Prior_GP": 67, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.759043384208629, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 7.693827337871087, "Current_PP_SOG60": 6.75, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 9.710642471799902, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 14.941779988944166, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 15.40925925925926, "Current_PP_Share": 0.748013090229079, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.5743938875331104, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1600.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2139.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 6, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.173148148148148, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 3.6001351754362516, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 3.869582532509134, "Other_State_SOG": 0.22371475953565506, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9555676582468344, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 2.5223880597014925, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 1", "ppUnit": "PP1 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-23", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:35:35.615148+00:00", "priorGP": 67.0, "currentTotalSOG": 16.0, "currentPPTOI": 2.9629629629629632, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.78 SOG/game in 9 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 9 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 23 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.729, "currentIXG": 0.19211111111111112, "priorTOI": 17.695273631840795, "priorPPTOI": 3.0432835820895523, "deploymentChange": 1.758430071862911, "ppTOIChange": -0.08032061912658905, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021085", "date": "20260319", "team": "DET", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 17.45 }, { "gameId": "2025020703", "date": "20260110", "team": "DET", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 15.733333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020010", "date": "20251009", "team": "DET", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 18.383333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024021236", "date": "20250408", "team": "DET", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 19.3 }, { "gameId": "2024020533", "date": "20241221", "team": "DET", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 15.533333333333333 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 6, "h2hSOG": 1.8, "opponentDefense": { "team": "MTL", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 237.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 26.333333333333332, "mostAllowedRank": 20, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.983070773571598, "pkSogAllowed60": 45.93967517401392, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 38.666666666666664, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 76.0, "D": 64.0, "R": 52.0, "L": 45.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 8.444444444444445, "L": 5.0, "R": 5.777777777777778, "D": 7.111111111111111 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 25.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 3, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27.333333333333332, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 26.333333333333332, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.777777777777778, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8484170", "team": "MTL", "name": "Jacob Fowler", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-23T17:12:10.576Z", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-23", "games": 4, "savePct": 0.9, "gaa": 2.163895011019836, "gsax": 2.1389999999999993, "goalsAllowed": 9.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 11.139, "shotsAgainst": 90.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9828963086689823, "factor": 0.9828963086689823, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter for October 23; Daily Faceoff confirmation.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.110558922956601, "goalHistoryGoals": 38.0, "goalHistoryShots": 360.0, "goalExpected": 0.24136686149535747, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.23723859719880436, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.214446615770118, "goalProbability": 0.21119694063728447, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.32496751328335294, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 9, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 2.183151346274457, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.759043384208629, "Current_PP_SOG60": 6.75, "Current_5v5_Min": 15.40925925925926, "Current_PP_Share": 0.748013090229079, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.173148148148148, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 3.869582532509134, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.2222222222222222, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9711545151193198, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9819199317155711, "Position_Factor": 1.013054138770874, "Input_GP": 9, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1600.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2139.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 7.693827337871087, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 9.710642471799902, "Prior_5v5_Min": 13.85099502487562, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.5743938875331104, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0348001150417026, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.382352941176471, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.9456855965914605, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.25, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9785955641461244, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.15, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 4.361653793730123, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 2.9532403609516, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 2.6666666666666665 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 1.6666666666666667 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five saved meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. Dated 2024–2026 regular-season appearances.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021085", "date": "20260319", "team": "DET", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 17.45 }, { "gameId": "2025020703", "date": "20260110", "team": "DET", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 15.733333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020010", "date": "20251009", "team": "DET", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 18.383333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024021236", "date": "20250408", "team": "DET", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 19.3 }, { "gameId": "2024020533", "date": "20241221", "team": "DET", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 15.533333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020522", "date": "20241220", "team": "DET", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 1.0, "toi": 18.1 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Roman Kantserov", "Connor Bedard", "Patrick Kane" ], "lineupSource": "NHL.com projected lineup", "isHome": true, "rosterPosition": "R", "projectedPosition": "R", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:35:35.615148+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/chicago-blackhawks/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-22T16:55:34.203Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 23, "priorAttempts": 176, "fitPct": -1.8104801136179844, "index": 98.18951988638202, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 20.99802371541502, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.711511602468903, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 35 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 15.098814229249014, "opponentDeltaPct": -5.805766108288097, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 32 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 24.288537549407113, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.5231164238779513, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 38 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 13.053359683794467, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.4830868449991215, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 23 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 17.707509881422926, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.49406869911976514, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 32 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 8.853754940711463, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.365981626756792, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 16 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 50, "fitPct": 9.49644292899822, "index": 109.49644292899822, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 16.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.8191755597579373, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 5.6000000000000005, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.365371878175409, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 10.4, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.116979926964163, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 13 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 14.399999999999999, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.921488030021976, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 52.800000000000004, "opponentDeltaPct": 19.17564972004449, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 21 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.8, "opponentDeltaPct": 88.51112253515706, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -1.8104801136179844, "zonePPFit": 9.49644292899822, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October23 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported unit only. Expected PP minutes retain measured current-season deployment; no guessed transfer.", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8484170", "goalieName": "Jacob Fowler", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8474141", "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 2, "log": [ { "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2, "gameId": "2025020703", "date": "20260110" } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "window": "2021–22 through October21, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked attempts", "coverageNote": "Observed saved encounters only; missing is unavailable, not zero. Not independently established as complete career coverage." }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8484170", "goalieName": "Jacob Fowler", "opponent": "CHI", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "coverageNote": "Last five observed goalie/team regular-season appearances. Historical coverage is not independently established as career-complete." }, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.9189107074330765, "attemptProjection": 2.0510650213393173, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261021", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 29.0, "sog": 11.0, "seconds": 8321.0, "expectedMinutes": 15.40925925925926, "projectedAttempts": 3.2222222222222223, "onNet": 0.45208251595184507, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.916154770019487, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0295873524263528 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 7.0, "sog": 3.0, "seconds": 1600.0, "expectedMinutes": 3.869582532509134, "projectedAttempts": 1.0157654147836477, "onNet": 0.48897885739991004, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9091960351585663, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0070808959552022 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.2850599086166699, "ppAdjusted": 0.47770573354730467, "other": 0.2222222222222222 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.984987864386197, "baseline": 2.5223880597014925, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 67.0, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 2.199947942512315, "adjustedSOG": 2.183151346274457, "reductionPct": 0.7634997134830623, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.2850599086166699, "afterPlayerForm": 1.2706874985826224, "afterRecentDefense": 1.2850599086166699, "afterRecentZones": 1.28482859475098, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.28482859475098, "adjusted": 1.2704587717852103, "playerFactor": 0.988815766535337, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.9456855965914605, "newChartFactor": 0.9453198123275245, "playerRecentAttempts": 14.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 71.86666666666666, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.9315942678011644, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0223803456813865, "defenseRecentMinutes": 244.7, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.47770573354730467, "afterPlayerForm": 0.47757044872660215, "afterRecentDefense": 0.46444407247401476, "afterRecentZones": 0.47770573354730467, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.46444407247401476, "adjusted": 0.4643125433156678, "playerFactor": 0.9997168030207677, "defenseFactor": 0.9722388488519644, "oldChartFactor": 1.25, "newChartFactor": 1.25, "playerRecentAttempts": 4.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 15.266666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.9981285090455395, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8240542632130013, "defenseRecentMinutes": 33.28333333333333, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 2.183151346274457, "adjustedSOG": 2.183151346274457, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.0918918918918919, "goalHistoryGoals": 17.0, "goalHistoryShots": 185.0, "goalExpected": 0.23117812427962936, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.23117812427962936, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.2064019056441201, "goalProbability": 0.2064019056441201, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1285710456003646, "modelSOG": 2.183151346274457, "historyGames": 148, "seasonGames": { "2024": 72, "2025": 67, "2026": 9 }, "historyGoals": 38.0, "historyShots": 360.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.10555555555555556, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.110558922956601, "goalieFactor": 0.9828963086689823, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 52.03837552272182, "btb": { "id": "8474141", "name": "Patrick Kane", "score": 52.03837552272182, "components": { "Goal model": 72.46376811594203, "SOG model": 81.15942028985508, "Unit attack": 6.666666666666667, "Opposing lines": 42.04545454545455, "Opposing pairs": 52.7972027972028, "PP": 48.57142857142857, "Shot quality": 62.31884057971015, "Goalie": 37.32394366197183, "Team H2H": 54.90384615384615, "Goalie H2H": 50.21853146853147 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": true, "weightedXGA60": 2.350953038481599, "games": 7, "exactGames": 3, "shares": [ 0.29297687982777665, 0.21671216310627706, 0.30526135155441075, 0.18504960551153554 ], "score": 42.04545454545455 }, "pair": { "available": true, "weightedXGA60": 2.583308202520541, "games": 8, "exactGames": 3, "shares": [ 0.32037978378799314, 0.32379761490153164, 0.21304328342879933, 0.14277931788167586 ], "score": 52.7972027972028 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.281685067381317, "unitPlayers": [ "Roman Kantserov", "Connor Bedard", "Patrick Kane" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 6, "goalieH2HShots": 2, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 32 } }, { "id": "8483686", "name": "Adam Engstrom", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "CHI", "position": "D", "currentGP": 5, "currentSOG": 1.0, "priorSOG": 0.7333333333333333, "currentTOI": 11.393333333333334, "currentFiveTOI": 10.793333333333333, "ppShare": 0.022256331542594012, "rate": 0.77856156049325, "fifty": 0.8886384612984585, "inputs": { "Player": "Adam Engstrom", "Player_ID": "8483686", "Team": "MTL", "Opponent": "CHI", "Position": "D", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 0.5306280901058857, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 0.47873878403465353, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 5, "Prior_GP": 15, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.558987029030265, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.500707213578501, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 11.325999999999999, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 10.793333333333333, "Current_PP_Share": 0.022256331542594012, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.048878431372549026, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 29.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1303.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 2, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.349074074074074, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.1315288797462534, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.09679443449589266, "Other_State_SOG": 0.0, "Environment_Proxy": 1.1241623654244617, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 0.7333333333333333, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Not on projected lineup", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "PP2 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-23", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:35:35.615148+00:00", "priorGP": 15.0, "currentTotalSOG": 5.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.09666666666666666, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.00 SOG/game in 5 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 5 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Not listed on latest projected chart; October 23 dressing status unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.308, "currentIXG": 0.0616, "priorTOI": 13.052222222222222, "priorPPTOI": 0.23222222222222222, "deploymentChange": -1.658888888888887, "ppTOIChange": -0.13555555555555554, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020536", "date": "20251218", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 16.216666666666665 } ], "h2hGames": 1, "h2hAvailableGames": 1, "h2hSOG": 2.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "CHI", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 275.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 30.555555555555557, "mostAllowedRank": 4, "fiveSogAllowed60": 29.037678778147054, "pkSogAllowed60": 51.98019801980198, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 47.0, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 88.0, "D": 70.0, "R": 50.0, "L": 67.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.777777777777779, "L": 7.444444444444445, "R": 5.555555555555555, "D": 7.777777777777778 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 30.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.8, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 30.555555555555557, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.777777777777778, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8481519", "team": "CHI", "name": "Spencer Knight", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-23T17:38:57.370Z", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-23", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.8878923766816144, "gaa": 3.589375448671931, "gsax": -1.0060000000000002, "goalsAllowed": 25.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 23.994, "shotsAgainst": 223.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0134476231189056, "factor": 1.0134476231189056, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter for October 23; Daily Faceoff confirmation.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.04973628019631589, "goalHistoryGoals": 0.0, "goalHistoryShots": 16.0, "goalExpected": 0.04343791261404223, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.04402204929194782, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.04250799957910418, "goalProbability": 0.04306714245152221, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.05591428724180322, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 5, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 0.8733647237506877, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.558987029030265, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 10.793333333333333, "Current_PP_Share": 0.022256331542594012, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.349074074074074, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.09679443449589266, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0652555848758556, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0415262503506049, "Position_Factor": 0.9933299562396771, "Input_GP": 5, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 29.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1303.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.500707213578501, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 12.568888888888889, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.048878431372549026, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0278141974152464, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.34640522875817, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.1002695186447478, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.130872632246311, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0415262503506049, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 4.297652208515718, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 2.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five saved meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. Dated 2024–2026 regular-season appearances.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020536", "date": "20251218", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 16.216666666666665 } ], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "NHL.com projected lineup", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/montreal-canadiens/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T04:50:37.269727+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/montreal-canadiens/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-22T16:05:24.999Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 17, "fitPct": 3.342317288158256, "index": 103.34231728815826, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 55.46218487394958, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.6823628774928636, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 9 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 21.84873949579832, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.333228225851869, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 17.724165752730244, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 13.277310924369749, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.874621784366013, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 7.058823529411766, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.336952686487635, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 2.3529411764705883, "opponentDeltaPct": -11.504840448330498, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 3.342317288158256, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October23 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported unit only. Expected PP minutes retain measured current-season deployment; no guessed transfer.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481519", "goalieName": "Spencer Knight", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8483686", "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 3, "log": [ { "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 3, "gameId": "2025020536", "date": "20251218" } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "window": "2021–22 through October21, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked attempts", "coverageNote": "Observed saved encounters only; missing is unavailable, not zero. Not independently established as complete career coverage." }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481519", "goalieName": "Spencer Knight", "opponent": "MTL", "games": 4, "availableGames": 4, "shotsAgainst": 118.0, "goalsAgainst": 13.0, "savePct": 0.8898305084745762, "gaa": 3.269526337851055, "gsax": 0.5030000000000001, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020536", "date": "20251218", "goalieTeam": "CHI", "opponent": "MTL", "shotsAgainst": 34.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3563.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.275 }, { "gameId": "2025020031", "date": "20251011", "goalieTeam": "CHI", "opponent": "MTL", "shotsAgainst": 28.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3585.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.45 }, { "gameId": "2024020566", "date": "20241228", "goalieTeam": "FLA", "opponent": "MTL", "shotsAgainst": 25.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3566.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.261 }, { "gameId": "2021021020", "date": "20220324", "goalieTeam": "FLA", "opponent": "MTL", "shotsAgainst": 31.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.517 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "coverageNote": "Last five observed goalie/team regular-season appearances. Historical coverage is not independently established as career-complete." }, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.1308726322463107, "attemptProjection": 0.9225795139162369, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261021", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 10.0, "sog": 5.0, "seconds": 3238.0, "expectedMinutes": 10.793333333333333, "projectedAttempts": 2.0, "onNet": 0.41282379732422425, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0621717863909321, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0519965736844064 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 29.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.09679443449589266, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.425764192139738, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.938442005242464, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.067787892452511 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.026726073081274, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.026726073081274, "baseline": 0.7333333333333333, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 15.0, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.9093689771820976, "adjustedSOG": 0.8911884936231508, "reductionPct": 1.9992416736365426, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.026726073081274, "afterPlayerForm": 1.026726073081274, "afterRecentDefense": 0.9964252671496956, "afterRecentZones": 1.026726073081274, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.9964252671496958, "adjusted": 0.9964252671496958, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9704879356568364, "oldChartFactor": 1.1002695186447478, "newChartFactor": 1.1002695186447478, "playerRecentAttempts": 10.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 53.96666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.0, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.860962222987714, "defenseRecentMinutes": 241.91666666666666, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.48333333333333334, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0243821773082225, "defenseRecentMinutes": 25.916666666666668, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.8911884936231508, "adjustedSOG": 0.8733647237506877, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.0, "goalHistoryGoals": 0.0, "goalHistoryShots": 16.0, "goalExpected": 0.0, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.0, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.0, "goalProbability": 0.0, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05769408502772643, "modelSOG": 0.8733647237506877, "historyGames": 20, "seasonGames": { "2025": 15, "2026": 5 }, "historyGoals": 0.0, "historyShots": 16.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.0, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.04973628019631589, "goalieFactor": 1.0134476231189056, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8478413", "name": "Jordan Greenway", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "MTL", "position": "R", "currentGP": 9, "currentSOG": 1.5555555555555556, "priorSOG": 0.8, "currentTOI": 13.598148148148148, "currentFiveTOI": 11.820370370370371, "ppShare": 0.009350163627863487, "rate": 0.8801204914140782, "fifty": 1.0825939569224023, "inputs": { "Player": "Jordan Greenway", "Player_ID": "8478413", "Team": "CHI", "Opponent": "MTL", "Position": "L", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.100595954480987, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.5340665055507192, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 9, "Prior_GP": 40, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 7.3319755600814664, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.586535016124537, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 11.413884259259259, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 11.820370370370371, "Current_PP_Share": 0.009350163627863487, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.0037381790424494297, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 20.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2139.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 6, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.173148148148148, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.03966029335672296, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.048369781656364165, "Other_State_SOG": 0.011111111111111112, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9555676582468344, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 0.8, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 4", "ppUnit": "PP assignment pending", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-23", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:35:35.615148+00:00", "priorGP": 40.0, "currentTotalSOG": 14.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.037037037037037035, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.56 SOG/game in 9 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 9 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 23 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.808, "currentIXG": 0.2008888888888889, "priorTOI": 12.445, "priorPPTOI": 0.017916666666666668, "deploymentChange": 1.1531481481481478, "ppTOIChange": 0.019120370370370367, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020795", "date": "20260122", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 10.95 }, { "gameId": "2025020740", "date": "20260115", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 11.166666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020968", "date": "20250303", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 17.083333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2024020953", "date": "20250301", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 16.3 }, { "gameId": "2024020239", "date": "20241111", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 19.166666666666668 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 5, "h2hSOG": 0.4, "opponentDefense": { "team": "MTL", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 237.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 26.333333333333332, "mostAllowedRank": 20, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.983070773571598, "pkSogAllowed60": 45.93967517401392, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 38.666666666666664, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 76.0, "D": 64.0, "R": 52.0, "L": 45.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 8.444444444444445, "L": 5.0, "R": 5.777777777777778, "D": 7.111111111111111 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 25.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 3, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27.333333333333332, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 26.333333333333332, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.777777777777778, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8484170", "team": "MTL", "name": "Jacob Fowler", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-23T17:12:10.576Z", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-23", "games": 4, "savePct": 0.9, "gaa": 2.163895011019836, "gsax": 2.1389999999999993, "goalsAllowed": 9.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 11.139, "shotsAgainst": 90.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9828963086689823, "factor": 0.9828963086689823, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter for October 23; Daily Faceoff confirmation.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.09810252590035984, "goalHistoryGoals": 5.0, "goalHistoryShots": 82.0, "goalExpected": 0.11227660561527732, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.1103562612091392, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.10620300596276608, "goalProbability": 0.1044849588118992, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.1718047150866875, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 9, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.1444823115901595, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 7.3319755600814664, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 11.820370370370371, "Current_PP_Share": 0.009350163627863487, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.173148148148148, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.048369781656364165, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.1111111111111111, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9711545151193198, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9819199317155711, "Position_Factor": 1.013054138770874, "Input_GP": 9, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 20.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2139.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.586535016124537, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 10.465416666666666, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.0037381790424494297, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0348001150417026, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.382352941176471, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.9725333957609886, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0063776698153686, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9819199317155711, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 8.180268888468094, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 0.6666666666666666 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five saved meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. Dated 2024–2026 regular-season appearances.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020795", "date": "20260122", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 10.95 }, { "gameId": "2025020740", "date": "20260115", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 11.166666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020968", "date": "20250303", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 17.083333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2024020953", "date": "20250301", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 16.3 }, { "gameId": "2024020239", "date": "20241111", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 19.166666666666668 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Cole Smith", "Ryan Greene", "Jordan Greenway" ], "lineupSource": "NHL.com projected lineup", "isHome": true, "rosterPosition": "R", "projectedPosition": "R", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:35:35.615148+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 17, "priorAttempts": 50, "fitPct": -0.9155534746337111, "index": 99.08444652536629, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 20.988235294117647, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.711511602468903, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 13 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 10.729411764705883, "opponentDeltaPct": -5.805766108288097, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 9 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 37.364705882352936, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.5231164238779513, "currentAttempts": 9, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 18.588235294117645, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.4830868449991215, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 10 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 9.129411764705884, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.49406869911976514, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 3.2, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.365981626756792, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -0.9155534746337111, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October23 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported unit only. Expected PP minutes retain measured current-season deployment; no guessed transfer.", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8484170", "goalieName": "Jacob Fowler", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8478413", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "window": "2021–22 through October21, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked attempts", "coverageNote": "Observed saved encounters only; missing is unavailable, not zero. Not independently established as complete career coverage." }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8484170", "goalieName": "Jacob Fowler", "opponent": "CHI", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "coverageNote": "Last five observed goalie/team regular-season appearances. Historical coverage is not independently established as career-complete." }, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.5647677452888658, "attemptProjection": 1.2802310119504794, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261021", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 21.0, "sog": 13.0, "seconds": 6383.0, "expectedMinutes": 11.820370370370371, "projectedAttempts": 2.3333333333333335, "onNet": 0.5311904050731797, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.916154770019487, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0295873524263528 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 20.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.048369781656364165, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.49743589743589745, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9091960351585663, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0070808959552022 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.3113882675085615, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.1111111111111111 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.4224993786196727, "baseline": 0.8, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 40.0, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.1734996271718037, "adjustedSOG": 1.1444823115901595, "reductionPct": 2.472716216500004, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.3113882675085615, "afterPlayerForm": 1.2630260748724877, "afterRecentDefense": 1.3113882675085615, "afterRecentZones": 1.3113882675085615, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.3113882675085615, "adjusted": 1.2630260748724877, "playerFactor": 0.9631213776771432, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.9725333957609886, "newChartFactor": 0.9725333957609886, "playerRecentAttempts": 8.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 54.61666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.7420259528895476, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0223803456813865, "defenseRecentMinutes": 244.7, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9722388488519644, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.3333333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8240542632130013, "defenseRecentMinutes": 33.28333333333333, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.1444823115901595, "adjustedSOG": 1.1444823115901595, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.043478260869565216, "goalHistoryGoals": 2.0, "goalHistoryShots": 46.0, "goalExpected": 0.03826610832235123, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.03826610832235123, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.037543210950826786, "goalProbability": 0.037543210950826786, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1285465971386549, "modelSOG": 1.1444823115901595, "historyGames": 83, "seasonGames": { "2024": 34, "2025": 40, "2026": 9 }, "historyGoals": 5.0, "historyShots": 82.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.06097560975609756, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.09810252590035984, "goalieFactor": 0.9828963086689823, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 43.891814656052254, "btb": { "id": "8478413", "name": "Jordan Greenway", "score": 43.891814656052254, "components": { "Goal model": 40.57971014492754, "SOG model": 30.434782608695652, "Unit attack": 40.0, "Opposing lines": 52.651515151515156, "Opposing pairs": 47.348484848484844, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 65.21739130434783, "Goalie": 37.32394366197183, "Team H2H": 33.33333333333333, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": true, "weightedXGA60": 2.517063704161175, "games": 7, "exactGames": 7, "shares": [ 0.21560282417527196, 0.3226053721094468, 0.2448349901870578, 0.21695681352822338 ], "score": 52.651515151515156 }, "pair": { "available": true, "weightedXGA60": 2.574780876057326, "games": 7, "exactGames": 7, "shares": [ 0.2967426111221019, 0.28979524799779605, 0.2959224396345851, 0.11753970124551699 ], "score": 47.348484848484844 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.495068892057513, "unitPlayers": [ "Cole Smith", "Ryan Greene", "Jordan Greenway" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 5, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 50 } }, { "id": "8483515", "name": "Juraj Slafkovsky", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "CHI", "position": "R", "currentGP": 9, "currentSOG": 2.6666666666666665, "priorSOG": 2.207317073170732, "currentTOI": 18.87037037037037, "currentFiveTOI": 13.781481481481482, "ppShare": 0.7113946326440828, "rate": 2.434451547215425, "fifty": 2.5397655214792927, "inputs": { "Player": "Juraj Slafkovsk", "Player_ID": "8483515", "Team": "MTL", "Opponent": "CHI", "Position": "L", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.9279037784498372, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 2.1301740712953796, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 9, "Prior_GP": 82, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.321150228433217, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.748316934230968, "Current_PP_SOG60": 17.810760667903526, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 10.586881472957423, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 13.885817524841913, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 13.781481481481482, "Current_PP_Share": 0.7113946326440828, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.6691764705882354, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1617.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2273.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 5, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.349074074074074, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 3.038824979052187, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 3.09390795326783, "Other_State_SOG": 0.30799457994579954, "Environment_Proxy": 1.1241623654244617, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 2.207317073170732, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 1", "ppUnit": "PP1 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-23", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:35:35.615148+00:00", "priorGP": 82.0, "currentTotalSOG": 24.0, "currentPPTOI": 2.9944444444444445, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.67 SOG/game in 9 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 9 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 23 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 3.347, "currentIXG": 0.3718888888888889, "priorTOI": 18.536991869918698, "priorPPTOI": 3.1792682926829268, "deploymentChange": 0.3333785004516727, "ppTOIChange": -0.1848238482384823, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020536", "date": "20251218", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 16.266666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020031", "date": "20251011", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 20.616666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024021285", "date": "20250414", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "toi": 20.85 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 3.3333333333333335, "opponentDefense": { "team": "CHI", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 275.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 30.555555555555557, "mostAllowedRank": 4, "fiveSogAllowed60": 29.037678778147054, "pkSogAllowed60": 51.98019801980198, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 47.0, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 88.0, "D": 70.0, "R": 50.0, "L": 67.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.777777777777779, "L": 7.444444444444445, "R": 5.555555555555555, "D": 7.777777777777778 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 30.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.8, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 30.555555555555557, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.555555555555555, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8481519", "team": "CHI", "name": "Spencer Knight", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-23T17:38:57.370Z", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-23", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.8878923766816144, "gaa": 3.589375448671931, "gsax": -1.0060000000000002, "goalsAllowed": 25.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 23.994, "shotsAgainst": 223.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0134476231189056, "factor": 1.0134476231189056, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter for October 23; Daily Faceoff confirmation.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.1434791241398096, "goalHistoryGoals": 50.0, "goalHistoryShots": 338.0, "goalExpected": 0.35319573928156944, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.35794538247063123, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.297560315119491, "goalProbability": 0.3008887423065567, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.3328427187065719, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 9, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 2.461652462677475, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.321150228433217, "Current_PP_SOG60": 17.810760667903526, "Current_5v5_Min": 13.781481481481482, "Current_PP_Share": 0.7113946326440828, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.349074074074074, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 3.09390795326783, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.5555555555555556, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0652555848758556, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0415262503506049, "Position_Factor": 0.9905286689152091, "Input_GP": 9, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1617.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2273.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.748316934230968, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 10.586881472957423, "Prior_5v5_Min": 14.129268292682926, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.6691764705882354, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0152430255967788, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.382352941176471, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.2399412690535063, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.1019370880166244, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.1476964034042192, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.503745604647607, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 19.4331983805668, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 3.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five saved meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. Dated 2024–2026 regular-season appearances.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020536", "date": "20251218", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 16.266666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020031", "date": "20251011", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 20.616666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024021285", "date": "20250414", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "toi": 20.85 }, { "gameId": "2024020616", "date": "20250103", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 19.45 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Cole Caufield", "Oliver Kapanen", "Juraj Slafkovsky" ], "lineupSource": "NHL.com projected lineup", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "rosterPosition": "R", "projectedPosition": "R", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:35:35.615148+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/montreal-canadiens/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-22T16:05:24.999Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 15, "priorAttempts": 192, "fitPct": 7.998042301783542, "index": 107.99804230178354, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 4.791666666666667, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.6823628774928636, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 23 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 14.208333333333334, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.333228225851869, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 49 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 34.20833333333333, "opponentDeltaPct": 17.724165752730244, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 49 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 23.291666666666664, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.874621784366013, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 35 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 13.833333333333334, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.336952686487635, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 28 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 9.666666666666666, "opponentDeltaPct": -11.504840448330498, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 8 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 10, "priorAttempts": 71, "fitPct": 3.3979029338874795, "index": 103.39790293388748, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 19.690140845070424, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.4028975883336443, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 26.450704225352112, "opponentDeltaPct": 13.01574130857064, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 15 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 25.15492957746479, "opponentDeltaPct": 8.387003790885572, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 34 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 10.507042253521126, "opponentDeltaPct": -19.944089475898465, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 8 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 18.197183098591548, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.7605264681782984, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 11 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -44.57933713730726, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 7.998042301783542, "zonePPFit": 3.3979029338874795, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October23 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported unit only. Expected PP minutes retain measured current-season deployment; no guessed transfer.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481519", "goalieName": "Spencer Knight", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8483515", "goals": 0, "sog": 8, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 3, "recordedAttempts": 10, "log": [ { "goals": 0, "sog": 5, "attempts": 7, "gameId": "2025020536", "date": "20251218" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2, "gameId": "2025020031", "date": "20251011" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1, "gameId": "2024020566", "date": "20241228" } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "window": "2021–22 through October21, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked attempts", "coverageNote": "Observed saved encounters only; missing is unavailable, not zero. Not independently established as complete career coverage." }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481519", "goalieName": "Spencer Knight", "opponent": "MTL", "games": 4, "availableGames": 4, "shotsAgainst": 118.0, "goalsAgainst": 13.0, "savePct": 0.8898305084745762, "gaa": 3.269526337851055, "gsax": 0.5030000000000001, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020536", "date": "20251218", "goalieTeam": "CHI", "opponent": "MTL", "shotsAgainst": 34.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3563.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.275 }, { "gameId": "2025020031", "date": "20251011", "goalieTeam": "CHI", "opponent": "MTL", "shotsAgainst": 28.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3585.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.45 }, { "gameId": "2024020566", "date": "20241228", "goalieTeam": "FLA", "opponent": "MTL", "shotsAgainst": 25.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3566.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.261 }, { "gameId": "2021021020", "date": "20220324", "goalieTeam": "FLA", "opponent": "MTL", "shotsAgainst": 31.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.517 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "coverageNote": "Last five observed goalie/team regular-season appearances. Historical coverage is not independently established as career-complete." }, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 3.015171825153173, "attemptProjection": 2.5084600301298874, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261021", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 19.0, "sog": 11.0, "seconds": 7442.0, "expectedMinutes": 13.781481481481482, "projectedAttempts": 2.111111111111111, "onNet": 0.5176017211622573, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0621717863909321, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0519965736844064 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 12.0, "sog": 8.0, "seconds": 1617.0, "expectedMinutes": 3.09390795326783, "projectedAttempts": 1.377621352104414, "onNet": 0.5301902398676593, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.938442005242464, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.067787892452511 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.3132780956654715, "ppAdjusted": 0.8929822764205035, "other": 0.5555555555555556 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 2.76181592764153, "baseline": 2.207317073170732, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 82.0, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 2.5400163858532108, "adjustedSOG": 2.51189026803824, "reductionPct": 1.1073203295703604, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.3132780956654715, "afterPlayerForm": 1.3132780956654715, "afterRecentDefense": 1.2773776667094232, "afterRecentZones": 1.3132780956654715, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.2773776667094232, "adjusted": 1.2773776667094232, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9726634982533106, "oldChartFactor": 1.2399412690535063, "newChartFactor": 1.2399412690535063, "playerRecentAttempts": 13.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 73.33333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.1572488038277513, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8712117732613771, "defenseRecentMinutes": 241.91666666666666, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.8929822764205035, "afterPlayerForm": 0.8820058423515991, "afterRecentDefense": 0.8929822764205035, "afterRecentZones": 0.8929822764205035, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.8929822764205035, "adjusted": 0.8820058423515991, "playerFactor": 0.9877081165452654, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.1019370880166244, "newChartFactor": 1.1019370880166244, "playerRecentAttempts": 7.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 17.033333333333335, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.922945205479452, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0243821773082225, "defenseRecentMinutes": 25.916666666666668, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 2.51189026803824, "adjustedSOG": 2.461652462677475, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.15609756097560976, "goalHistoryGoals": 32.0, "goalHistoryShots": 205.0, "goalExpected": 0.3800119488336273, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.3800119488336273, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.3161467620850281, "goalProbability": 0.3161467620850281, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12843856373236606, "modelSOG": 2.461652462677475, "historyGames": 170, "seasonGames": { "2024": 79, "2025": 82, "2026": 9 }, "historyGoals": 50.0, "historyShots": 338.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.14792899408284024, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.1434791241398096, "goalieFactor": 1.0134476231189056, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 68.11074283975861, "btb": { "id": "8483515", "name": "Juraj Slafkovsky", "score": 68.11074283975861, "components": { "Goal model": 91.30434782608695, "SOG model": 89.85507246376811, "Unit attack": 60.0, "Opposing lines": 77.27272727272728, "Opposing pairs": 60.101010101010104, "PP": 50.714285714285715, "Shot quality": 91.30434782608695, "Goalie": 62.67605633802817, "Team H2H": 50.65934065934066, "Goalie H2H": 44.20062695924765 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": true, "weightedXGA60": 2.7567053963155796, "games": 6, "exactGames": 0, "shares": [ 0.35957265014008766, 0.23628675969897175, 0.21081796883192694, 0.1933226213290136 ], "score": 77.27272727272728 }, "pair": { "available": true, "weightedXGA60": 2.865617769343295, "games": 4, "exactGames": 0, "shares": [ 0.377381712887435, 0.3047097133776021, 0.27988051475806297, 0.038028058976899926 ], "score": 60.101010101010104 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.9222728841182053, "unitPlayers": [ "Cole Caufield", "Oliver Kapanen", "Juraj Slafkovsky" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": 8, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 6 } }, { "id": "8483457", "name": "Lane Hutson", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "CHI", "position": "D", "currentGP": 9, "currentSOG": 2.3333333333333335, "priorSOG": 1.5121951219512195, "currentTOI": 26.392592592592592, "currentFiveTOI": 20.640740740740743, "ppShare": 0.7580290365156181, "rate": 1.808732843324251, "fifty": 2.0313846245466403, "inputs": { "Player": "Lane Hutson", "Player_ID": "8483457", "Team": "MTL", "Opponent": "CHI", "Position": "D", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.4032998181890175, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.599490892637323, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 9, "Prior_GP": 82, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.521801543154495, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.568042747565285, "Current_PP_SOG60": 6.268136970400464, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 3.413832342900493, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 20.10851851851852, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 20.640740740740743, "Current_PP_Share": 0.7580290365156181, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.6767058823529413, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1723.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2273.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 5, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.349074074074074, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 3.1906203036881755, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 3.2967244301054244, "Other_State_SOG": 0.231029810298103, "Environment_Proxy": 1.1241623654244617, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.5121951219512195, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 1", "ppUnit": "PP1 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-23", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:35:35.615148+00:00", "priorGP": 82.0, "currentTotalSOG": 21.0, "currentPPTOI": 3.1907407407407407, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.33 SOG/game in 9 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 9 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 23 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.43, "currentIXG": 0.15888888888888889, "priorTOI": 23.771747967479673, "priorPPTOI": 3.215040650406504, "deploymentChange": 2.6208446251129196, "ppTOIChange": -0.02429990966576323, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020536", "date": "20251218", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 26.316666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020031", "date": "20251011", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 21.433333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024021285", "date": "20250414", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 27.4 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 1.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "CHI", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 275.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 30.555555555555557, "mostAllowedRank": 4, "fiveSogAllowed60": 29.037678778147054, "pkSogAllowed60": 51.98019801980198, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 47.0, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 88.0, "D": 70.0, "R": 50.0, "L": 67.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.777777777777779, "L": 7.444444444444445, "R": 5.555555555555555, "D": 7.777777777777778 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 30.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.8, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 30.555555555555557, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.777777777777778, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8481519", "team": "CHI", "name": "Spencer Knight", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-23T17:38:57.370Z", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-23", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.8878923766816144, "gaa": 3.589375448671931, "gsax": -1.0060000000000002, "goalsAllowed": 25.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 23.994, "shotsAgainst": 223.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0134476231189056, "factor": 1.0134476231189056, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter for October 23; Daily Faceoff confirmation.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.07687255185025617, "goalHistoryGoals": 20.0, "goalHistoryShots": 235.0, "goalExpected": 0.15742608845866685, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.15954309516534249, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.14566004314202283, "goalProbability": 0.14746677345560547, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.18067303135826385, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 9, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 2.047884253476129, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.521801543154495, "Current_PP_SOG60": 6.268136970400464, "Current_5v5_Min": 20.640740740740743, "Current_PP_Share": 0.7580290365156181, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.349074074074074, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 3.2967244301054244, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.4444444444444444, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0652555848758556, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0415262503506049, "Position_Factor": 0.9933299562396771, "Input_GP": 9, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1723.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2273.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.568042747565285, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 3.413832342900493, "Prior_5v5_Min": 18.866666666666667, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.6767058823529413, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0278141974152464, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.34640522875817, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.087291781699108, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.9848966194029323, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.1175339299632618, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0257956829897228, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 4.800492358190584, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 4.5743329097839895, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five saved meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. Dated 2024–2026 regular-season appearances.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020536", "date": "20251218", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 26.316666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020031", "date": "20251011", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 21.433333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024021285", "date": "20250414", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 27.4 }, { "gameId": "2024020616", "date": "20250103", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 26.733333333333334 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Lane Hutson", "Noah Dobson" ], "lineupSource": "NHL.com projected lineup", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:35:35.615148+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/montreal-canadiens/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-22T16:05:24.999Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 23, "priorAttempts": 125, "fitPct": 2.909726056636927, "index": 102.90972605663693, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 67.80521739130435, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.6823628774928636, "currentAttempts": 19, "priorAttempts": 57 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 8.368695652173914, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.333228225851869, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 18 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 4.16, "opponentDeltaPct": 17.724165752730244, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 13 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 12.897391304347828, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.874621784366013, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 24 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 2.24, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.336952686487635, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 4.528695652173913, "opponentDeltaPct": -11.504840448330498, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 6 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 21, "fitPct": -0.5034460199022561, "index": 99.49655398009774, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 28.333333333333332, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.4028975883336443, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 24.523809523809522, "opponentDeltaPct": 13.01574130857064, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 5.714285714285714, "opponentDeltaPct": 8.387003790885572, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 20.71428571428571, "opponentDeltaPct": -19.944089475898465, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 20.71428571428571, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.7605264681782984, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -44.57933713730726, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 2.909726056636927, "zonePPFit": -0.5034460199022561, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October23 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported unit only. Expected PP minutes retain measured current-season deployment; no guessed transfer.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481519", "goalieName": "Spencer Knight", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8483457", "goals": 0, "sog": 4, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 3, "recordedAttempts": 4, "log": [ { "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1, "gameId": "2025020536", "date": "20251218" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1, "gameId": "2025020031", "date": "20251011" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2, "gameId": "2024020566", "date": "20241228" } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "window": "2021–22 through October21, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked attempts", "coverageNote": "Observed saved encounters only; missing is unavailable, not zero. Not independently established as complete career coverage." }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481519", "goalieName": "Spencer Knight", "opponent": "MTL", "games": 4, "availableGames": 4, "shotsAgainst": 118.0, "goalsAgainst": 13.0, "savePct": 0.8898305084745762, "gaa": 3.269526337851055, "gsax": 0.5030000000000001, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020536", "date": "20251218", "goalieTeam": "CHI", "opponent": "MTL", "shotsAgainst": 34.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3563.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.275 }, { "gameId": "2025020031", "date": "20251011", "goalieTeam": "CHI", "opponent": "MTL", "shotsAgainst": 28.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3585.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.45 }, { "gameId": "2024020566", "date": "20241228", "goalieTeam": "FLA", "opponent": "MTL", "shotsAgainst": 25.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3566.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.261 }, { "gameId": "2021021020", "date": "20220324", "goalieTeam": "FLA", "opponent": "MTL", "shotsAgainst": 31.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.517 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "coverageNote": "Last five observed goalie/team regular-season appearances. Historical coverage is not independently established as career-complete." }, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 2.536120066666423, "attemptProjection": 2.52689647703695, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261021", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 37.0, "sog": 14.0, "seconds": 11146.0, "expectedMinutes": 20.640740740740743, "projectedAttempts": 4.111111111111112, "onNet": 0.3881543429822236, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0621717863909321, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0519965736844064 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 6.0, "sog": 3.0, "seconds": 1723.0, "expectedMinutes": 3.2967244301054244, "projectedAttempts": 0.688810676052207, "onNet": 0.43371802869619464, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.938442005242464, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.067787892452511 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.7607370030426537, "ppAdjusted": 0.3263268243645885, "other": 0.4444444444444444 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 2.5315082718516866, "baseline": 1.5121951219512195, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 82.0, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 2.1237830118914998, "adjustedSOG": 2.089677809669519, "reductionPct": 1.6058703752228287, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.7607370030426537, "afterPlayerForm": 1.7607370030426537, "afterRecentDefense": 1.7087740193174699, "afterRecentZones": 1.7559833594290688, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.7041606655400736, "adjusted": 1.7041606655400736, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9704879356568364, "oldChartFactor": 1.087291781699108, "newChartFactor": 1.081345349436788, "playerRecentAttempts": 22.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 104.46666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.0573311026406114, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.860962222987714, "defenseRecentMinutes": 241.91666666666666, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.3263268243645885, "afterPlayerForm": 0.3263268243645885, "afterRecentDefense": 0.3263268243645885, "afterRecentZones": 0.3260611581638674, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.3260611581638674, "adjusted": 0.3260611581638674, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.9848966194029323, "newChartFactor": 0.9834153767599759, "playerRecentAttempts": 4.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 18.1, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.0577041129527318, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0243821773082225, "defenseRecentMinutes": 25.916666666666668, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 2.089677809669519, "adjustedSOG": 2.047884253476129, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.09655172413793103, "goalHistoryGoals": 14.0, "goalHistoryShots": 145.0, "goalExpected": 0.17463627452785874, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.17463627452785874, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.1602375917943431, "goalProbability": 0.1602375917943431, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05752304869835814, "modelSOG": 2.047884253476129, "historyGames": 173, "seasonGames": { "2024": 82, "2025": 82, "2026": 9 }, "historyGoals": 20.0, "historyShots": 235.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.0851063829787234, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.07687255185025617, "goalieFactor": 1.0134476231189056, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 58.449810707312245, "btb": { "id": "8483457", "name": "Lane Hutson", "score": 58.449810707312245, "components": { "Goal model": 55.072463768115945, "SOG model": 78.26086956521739, "Unit attack": 90.9090909090909, "Opposing lines": 73.07692307692308, "Opposing pairs": 75.17482517482517, "PP": 50.714285714285715, "Shot quality": 52.17391304347826, "Goalie": 62.67605633802817, "Team H2H": 37.032967032967036, "Goalie H2H": 49.074074074074076 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": true, "games": 8, "exactGames": 7, "individualGames": 1, "roleGames": 0, "exactMinutes": 86.06666666666666, "exactWeight": 0.5892286627110909, "individualWeight": 0.22530664945125886, "venueGames": 3, "venueFallback": false, "shares": [ 0.26773550833577275, 0.21513319742187667, 0.1881368269473631, 0.16984040837701986, 0.15915405891796758 ], "units": [ { "unit": 1, "names": [ "Roman Kantserov", "Connor Bedard", "Patrick Kane" ], "share": 0.26773550833577275, "xGA60": 3.034330357181087 }, { "unit": 2, "names": [ "Tyler Bertuzzi", "Anton Frondell", "Teuvo Teravainen" ], "share": 0.21513319742187667, "xGA60": 2.9573904009618985 }, { "unit": 4, "names": [ "Cole Smith", "Ryan Greene", "Jordan Greenway" ], "share": 0.1881368269473631, "xGA60": 2.1366414316797844 }, { "unit": 3, "names": [ "Oliver Moore", "Frank Nazar", "Ryan Donato" ], "share": 0.16984040837701986, "xGA60": 2.6268627576253714 } ], "otherShare": 0.15915405891796758, "weightedXGA60": 2.781264134109059, "score": 73.07692307692308 }, "pair": { "available": true, "games": 8, "exactGames": 7, "individualGames": 1, "roleGames": 0, "exactMinutes": 86.06666666666666, "exactWeight": 0.5892286627110909, "individualWeight": 0.22530664945125886, "venueGames": 3, "venueFallback": false, "shares": [ 0.3248319064447023, 0.28089126081424, 0.2560409557532207, 0.13823587698783696 ], "units": [ { "unit": 2, "names": [ "Wyatt Kaiser", "Artyom Levshunov" ], "share": 0.3248319064447023, "xGA60": 2.7395083310694384 }, { "unit": 1, "names": [ "Alex Vlasic", "Ian Cole" ], "share": 0.28089126081424, "xGA60": 2.7281475578627203 }, { "unit": 3, "names": [ "Ethan Del Mastro", "Sam Rinzel" ], "share": 0.2560409557532207, "xGA60": 3.1610539346551283 } ], "otherShare": 0.13823587698783696, "weightedXGA60": 2.8863765112460067, "score": 75.17482517482517 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 3.5855578713970235, "unitPlayers": [ "Lane Hutson", "Noah Dobson" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": 4, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 21 } }, { "id": "8483450", "name": "Ryan Greene", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "MTL", "position": "C", "currentGP": 9, "currentSOG": 0.5555555555555556, "priorSOG": 1.35, "currentTOI": 14.390740740740743, "currentFiveTOI": 12.472222222222221, "ppShare": 0.045348293595137916, "rate": 1.1360086471760822, "fifty": 0.9544132366105348, "inputs": { "Player": "Ryan Greene", "Player_ID": "8483450", "Team": "CHI", "Opponent": "MTL", "Position": "C", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.3438438946938205, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.170265778661638, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 9, "Prior_GP": 80, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.6726057906458798, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.603867747972552, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 6.115169016476983, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 12.738055555555555, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 12.472222222222221, "Current_PP_Share": 0.045348293595137916, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.2834056437809052, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 97.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2139.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 6, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.173148148148148, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.6040452231133334, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.23459344103336624, "Other_State_SOG": 0.15750000000000003, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9555676582468344, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.35, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 4", "ppUnit": "PP assignment pending", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-23", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:35:35.615148+00:00", "priorGP": 80.0, "currentTotalSOG": 5.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.17962962962962964, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.56 SOG/game in 9 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 9 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 23 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.698, "currentIXG": 0.07755555555555554, "priorTOI": 16.761666666666667, "priorPPTOI": 1.2264583333333332, "deploymentChange": -2.370925925925924, "ppTOIChange": -1.0468287037037036, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020536", "date": "20251218", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 15.116666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020031", "date": "20251011", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 9.9 }, { "gameId": "2024021285", "date": "20250414", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 12.916666666666666 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 3, "h2hSOG": 0.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "MTL", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 237.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 26.333333333333332, "mostAllowedRank": 20, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.983070773571598, "pkSogAllowed60": 45.93967517401392, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 38.666666666666664, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 76.0, "D": 64.0, "R": 52.0, "L": 45.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 8.444444444444445, "L": 5.0, "R": 5.777777777777778, "D": 7.111111111111111 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 25.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 3, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27.333333333333332, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 26.333333333333332, "oppPosSogAllowed": 8.444444444444445, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8484170", "team": "MTL", "name": "Jacob Fowler", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-23T17:12:10.576Z", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-23", "games": 4, "savePct": 0.9, "gaa": 2.163895011019836, "gsax": 2.1389999999999993, "goalsAllowed": 9.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 11.139, "shotsAgainst": 90.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9828963086689823, "factor": 0.9828963086689823, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter for October 23; Daily Faceoff confirmation.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.11146251228399523, "goalHistoryGoals": 11.0, "goalHistoryShots": 114.0, "goalExpected": 0.09112652681555097, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.08956792682883008, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.08709780301627787, "goalProbability": 0.08567384426139407, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.14239587548837973, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 9, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 0.8175531391520208, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.6726057906458798, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 12.472222222222221, "Current_PP_Share": 0.045348293595137916, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.173148148148148, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.23459344103336624, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9711545151193198, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9819199317155711, "Position_Factor": 0.9911637855464778, "Input_GP": 9, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 97.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2139.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.603867747972552, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 6.115169016476983, "Prior_5v5_Min": 13.358333333333334, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.2834056437809052, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9501385041551247, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.437908496732026, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.9338326446337978, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.8872703521035807, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9819199317155711, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 2.610587382160986, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 0.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five saved meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. Dated 2024–2026 regular-season appearances.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020536", "date": "20251218", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 15.116666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020031", "date": "20251011", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 9.9 }, { "gameId": "2024021285", "date": "20250414", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 12.916666666666666 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Cole Smith", "Ryan Greene", "Jordan Greenway" ], "lineupSource": "NHL.com projected lineup", "isHome": true, "rosterPosition": "C", "projectedPosition": "C", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:35:35.615148+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 8, "priorAttempts": 122, "fitPct": -2.205578512206742, "index": 97.79442148779326, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 13.729508196721312, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.711511602468903, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 19 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 40.16393442622951, "opponentDeltaPct": -5.805766108288097, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 31 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 30.08196721311476, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.5231164238779513, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 46 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 10.778688524590162, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.4830868449991215, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 10 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 4.59016393442623, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.49406869911976514, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 14 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.6557377049180327, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.365981626756792, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 13, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -2.205578512206742, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October23 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported unit only. Expected PP minutes retain measured current-season deployment; no guessed transfer.", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8484170", "goalieName": "Jacob Fowler", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8483450", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "window": "2021–22 through October21, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked attempts", "coverageNote": "Observed saved encounters only; missing is unavailable, not zero. Not independently established as complete career coverage." }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8484170", "goalieName": "Jacob Fowler", "opponent": "CHI", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "coverageNote": "Last five observed goalie/team regular-season appearances. Historical coverage is not independently established as career-complete." }, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.4929279733908781, "attemptProjection": 0.48413903185161544, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261021", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 9.0, "sog": 5.0, "seconds": 6735.0, "expectedMinutes": 12.472222222222221, "projectedAttempts": 1.0, "onNet": 0.5132607464796191, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.916154770019487, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0295873524263528 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 97.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.23459344103336624, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.5294117647058824, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9091960351585663, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0070808959552022 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.4885335026212468, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.4885335026212468, "baseline": 1.35, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 80.0, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.8331201015727481, "adjustedSOG": 0.8175531391520208, "reductionPct": 1.8685136022213666, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.4885335026212468, "afterPlayerForm": 0.46320802540497696, "afterRecentDefense": 0.4885335026212468, "afterRecentZones": 0.48788017404962863, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.48788017404962863, "adjusted": 0.4625885652533678, "playerFactor": 0.9481602037928106, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.9338326446337978, "newChartFactor": 0.9313572341041332, "playerRecentAttempts": 3.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 57.766666666666666, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.6477207155222158, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.1123498161013488, "defenseRecentMinutes": 244.7, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9722388488519644, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.9, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8240542632130013, "defenseRecentMinutes": 33.28333333333333, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.8175531391520208, "adjustedSOG": 0.8175531391520208, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.09734513274336283, "goalHistoryGoals": 11.0, "goalHistoryShots": 113.0, "goalExpected": 0.11058491255696375, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.11058491255696375, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.10468969612544067, "goalProbability": 0.10468969612544067, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12852977628774978, "modelSOG": 0.8175531391520208, "historyGames": 91, "seasonGames": { "2024": 2, "2025": 80, "2026": 9 }, "historyGoals": 11.0, "historyShots": 114.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.09649122807017543, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.11146251228399523, "goalieFactor": 0.9828963086689823, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 36.14436589522557, "btb": { "id": "8483450", "name": "Ryan Greene", "score": 36.14436589522557, "components": { "Goal model": 27.536231884057973, "SOG model": 8.695652173913043, "Unit attack": 40.0, "Opposing lines": 52.651515151515156, "Opposing pairs": 47.348484848484844, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 15.942028985507246, "Goalie": 37.32394366197183, "Team H2H": 39.171597633136095, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": true, "weightedXGA60": 2.517063704161175, "games": 7, "exactGames": 7, "shares": [ 0.21560282417527196, 0.3226053721094468, 0.2448349901870578, 0.21695681352822338 ], "score": 52.651515151515156 }, "pair": { "available": true, "weightedXGA60": 2.574780876057326, "games": 7, "exactGames": 7, "shares": [ 0.2967426111221019, 0.28979524799779605, 0.2959224396345851, 0.11753970124551699 ], "score": 47.348484848484844 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.495068892057513, "unitPlayers": [ "Cole Smith", "Ryan Greene", "Jordan Greenway" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 3, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 62 } }, { "id": "8476479", "name": "Phillip Danault", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "CHI", "position": "C", "currentGP": 9, "currentSOG": 1.5555555555555556, "priorSOG": 1.2133333333333334, "currentTOI": 15.862962962962964, "currentFiveTOI": 11.605555555555556, "ppShare": 0.013638363396392433, "rate": 1.2986810396781103, "fifty": 1.3627204828580817, "inputs": { "Player": "Phillip Danault", "Player_ID": "8476479", "Team": "MTL", "Opponent": "CHI", "Position": "C", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 0.987540184050892, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 0.9164684995578429, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 9, "Prior_GP": 75, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 6.318812829104835, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.961873053377725, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 6.75422138836773, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 11.848288888888888, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 11.605555555555556, "Current_PP_Share": 0.013638363396392433, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.1246516934046346, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 31.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2273.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 5, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.349074074074074, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.20415581128469376, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.059314252660051164, "Other_State_SOG": 0.14133333333333334, "Environment_Proxy": 1.1241623654244617, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.2133333333333334, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 3", "ppUnit": "PP assignment pending", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-23", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:35:35.615148+00:00", "priorGP": 75.0, "currentTotalSOG": 14.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.057407407407407414, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.56 SOG/game in 9 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 9 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 23 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.569, "currentIXG": 0.17433333333333334, "priorTOI": 15.566222222222223, "priorPPTOI": 0.5922222222222222, "deploymentChange": 0.2967407407407414, "ppTOIChange": -0.5348148148148147, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020449", "date": "20251206", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 16.466666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2025020435", "date": "20251204", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 17.583333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2025020144", "date": "20251026", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 16.516666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024021098", "date": "20250320", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 16.083333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2024020972", "date": "20250303", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 19.416666666666668 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 6, "h2hSOG": 1.2, "opponentDefense": { "team": "CHI", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 275.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 30.555555555555557, "mostAllowedRank": 4, "fiveSogAllowed60": 29.037678778147054, "pkSogAllowed60": 51.98019801980198, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 47.0, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 88.0, "D": 70.0, "R": 50.0, "L": 67.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.777777777777779, "L": 7.444444444444445, "R": 5.555555555555555, "D": 7.777777777777778 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 30.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.8, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 30.555555555555557, "oppPosSogAllowed": 9.777777777777779, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8481519", "team": "CHI", "name": "Spencer Knight", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-23T17:38:57.370Z", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-23", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.8878923766816144, "gaa": 3.589375448671931, "gsax": -1.0060000000000002, "goalsAllowed": 25.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 23.994, "shotsAgainst": 223.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0134476231189056, "factor": 1.0134476231189056, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter for October 23; Daily Faceoff confirmation.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.08190054247225324, "goalHistoryGoals": 14.0, "goalHistoryShots": 228.0, "goalExpected": 0.12190557311946988, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.12354491332287469, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.11476804575182038, "goalProbability": 0.11621805323124634, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.14500074794259604, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 9, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.4884586773130322, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 6.318812829104835, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 11.605555555555556, "Current_PP_Share": 0.013638363396392433, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.349074074074074, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.059314252660051164, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.3333333333333333, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0652555848758556, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0415262503506049, "Position_Factor": 0.9909330806239977, "Input_GP": 9, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 31.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2273.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.961873053377725, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 6.75422138836773, "Prior_5v5_Min": 12.414666666666667, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.1246516934046346, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0170578801574575, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.437908496732026, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.2221008085636298, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0415262503506049, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 4.612850082372323, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 2.3333333333333335 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 1.3333333333333333 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five saved meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. Dated 2024–2026 regular-season appearances.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020449", "date": "20251206", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 16.466666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2025020435", "date": "20251204", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 17.583333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2025020144", "date": "20251026", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 16.516666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024021098", "date": "20250320", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 16.083333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2024020972", "date": "20250303", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 19.416666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2024020176", "date": "20241102", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 1.0, "toi": 20.55 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Zack Bolduc", "Phillip Danault", "Alexandre Texier" ], "lineupSource": "NHL.com projected lineup", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "rosterPosition": "C", "projectedPosition": "C", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:35:35.615148+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 17, "priorAttempts": 106, "fitPct": 7.403360285454326, "index": 107.40336028545433, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 10.321864594894562, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.6823628774928636, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 18 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 12.963374028856828, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.333228225851869, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 25 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 41.06548279689235, "opponentDeltaPct": 17.724165752730244, "currentAttempts": 8, "priorAttempts": 34 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 8.435072142064373, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.874621784366013, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 13 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 11.20976692563818, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.336952686487635, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 11 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 16.004439511653718, "opponentDeltaPct": -11.504840448330498, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 5 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 9, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 7.403360285454326, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October23 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported unit only. Expected PP minutes retain measured current-season deployment; no guessed transfer.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481519", "goalieName": "Spencer Knight", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8476479", "goals": 0, "sog": 13, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 6, "recordedAttempts": 19, "log": [ { "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 2, "gameId": "2025020449", "date": "20251206" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 4, "gameId": "2025020435", "date": "20251204" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2, "gameId": "2024021098", "date": "20250320" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1, "gameId": "2024020972", "date": "20250303" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2, "gameId": "2024020760", "date": "20250122" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 6, "attempts": 8, "gameId": "2021020951", "date": "20220313" } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "window": "2021–22 through October21, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked attempts", "coverageNote": "Observed saved encounters only; missing is unavailable, not zero. Not independently established as complete career coverage." }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481519", "goalieName": "Spencer Knight", "opponent": "MTL", "games": 4, "availableGames": 4, "shotsAgainst": 118.0, "goalsAgainst": 13.0, "savePct": 0.8898305084745762, "gaa": 3.269526337851055, "gsax": 0.5030000000000001, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020536", "date": "20251218", "goalieTeam": "CHI", "opponent": "MTL", "shotsAgainst": 34.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3563.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.275 }, { "gameId": "2025020031", "date": "20251011", "goalieTeam": "CHI", "opponent": "MTL", "shotsAgainst": 28.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3585.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.45 }, { "gameId": "2024020566", "date": "20241228", "goalieTeam": "FLA", "opponent": "MTL", "shotsAgainst": 25.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3566.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.261 }, { "gameId": "2021021020", "date": "20220324", "goalieTeam": "FLA", "opponent": "MTL", "shotsAgainst": 31.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.517 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "coverageNote": "Last five observed goalie/team regular-season appearances. Historical coverage is not independently established as career-complete." }, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.738888888888889, "attemptProjection": 1.7526110008743807, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261021", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 23.0, "sog": 11.0, "seconds": 6267.0, "expectedMinutes": 11.605555555555556, "projectedAttempts": 2.5555555555555554, "onNet": 0.4970189594835277, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0621717863909321, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0519965736844064 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 31.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.059314252660051164, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.5294117647058824, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.938442005242464, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.067787892452511 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.4124166115483017, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.3333333333333333 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.7457499448816347, "baseline": 1.2133333333333334, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 75.0, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.5327833002623141, "adjustedSOG": 1.518835385013298, "reductionPct": 0.9099730696849995, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.4124166115483017, "afterPlayerForm": 1.4124166115483017, "afterRecentDefense": 1.3891700861332743, "afterRecentZones": 1.4124166115483017, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.3891700861332745, "adjusted": 1.3891700861332745, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9835413112356812, "oldChartFactor": 1.2221008085636298, "newChartFactor": 1.2221008085636298, "playerRecentAttempts": 19.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 61.65, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.3995909587785182, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9224595246296935, "defenseRecentMinutes": 241.91666666666666, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.38333333333333336, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0243821773082225, "defenseRecentMinutes": 25.916666666666668, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.518835385013298, "adjustedSOG": 1.4884586773130322, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.05714285714285714, "goalHistoryGoals": 6.0, "goalHistoryShots": 105.0, "goalExpected": 0.07421034512446345, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.07421034512446345, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.07152362717860726, "goalProbability": 0.07152362717860726, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12863377930899061, "modelSOG": 1.4884586773130322, "historyGames": 164, "seasonGames": { "2024": 80, "2025": 75, "2026": 9 }, "historyGoals": 14.0, "historyShots": 228.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.06140350877192982, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.08190054247225324, "goalieFactor": 1.0134476231189056, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 56.57898044147209, "btb": { "id": "8476479", "name": "Phillip Danault", "score": 56.57898044147209, "components": { "Goal model": 43.47826086956522, "SOG model": 57.971014492753625, "Unit attack": 80.0, "Opposing lines": 67.35537190082644, "Opposing pairs": 70.45454545454545, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 57.971014492753625, "Goalie": 62.67605633802817, "Team H2H": 60.09615384615385, "Goalie H2H": 40.15151515151515 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": true, "weightedXGA60": 2.723700673558638, "games": 6, "exactGames": 4, "shares": [ 0.2550934602621433, 0.2853291813104905, 0.2527042982637952, 0.20687306016357093 ], "score": 67.35537190082644 }, "pair": { "available": true, "weightedXGA60": 2.888436406104264, "games": 5, "exactGames": 2, "shares": [ 0.33841137071134697, 0.26385177189897746, 0.26299194776099843, 0.13474490962867705 ], "score": 70.45454545454545 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 3.140927639641678, "unitPlayers": [ "Zack Bolduc", "Phillip Danault", "Alexandre Texier" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 6, "goalieH2HShots": 13, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 24 } }, { "id": "8483506", "name": "Sam Rinzel", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "MTL", "position": "D", "currentGP": 8, "currentSOG": 1.375, "priorSOG": 1.509433962264151, "currentTOI": 17.5375, "currentFiveTOI": 16.166666666666668, "ppShare": 0.23956262425447317, "rate": 1.4443754563287563, "fifty": 1.4258967566758998, "inputs": { "Player": "Sam Rinzel", "Player_ID": "8483506", "Team": "CHI", "Opponent": "MTL", "Position": "D", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.612143423835205, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.5829461205852609, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 8, "Prior_GP": 53, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.711340206185567, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.671532846715328, "Current_PP_SOG60": 22.406639004149376, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 7.944514501891551, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 15.969496855345913, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 16.166666666666668, "Current_PP_Share": 0.23956262425447317, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.46099026102183904, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 482.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2012.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 5, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.173148148148148, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 1.5829363367551144, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 1.2392929460275386, "Other_State_SOG": 0.033962264150943396, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9555676582468344, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.509433962264151, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 3", "ppUnit": "PP2 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-23", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:35:35.615148+00:00", "priorGP": 53.0, "currentTotalSOG": 11.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.0041666666666667, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.38 SOG/game in 8 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 8 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 23 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.839, "currentIXG": 0.104875, "priorTOI": 18.19622641509434, "priorPPTOI": 1.9949685534591195, "deploymentChange": -0.658726415094339, "ppTOIChange": -0.9908018867924528, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020031", "date": "20251011", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "toi": 25.966666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2024021285", "date": "20250414", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 26.866666666666667 } ], "h2hGames": 2, "h2hAvailableGames": 2, "h2hSOG": 3.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "MTL", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 237.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 26.333333333333332, "mostAllowedRank": 20, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.983070773571598, "pkSogAllowed60": 45.93967517401392, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 38.666666666666664, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 76.0, "D": 64.0, "R": 52.0, "L": 45.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 8.444444444444445, "L": 5.0, "R": 5.777777777777778, "D": 7.111111111111111 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 25.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 3, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27.333333333333332, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 26.333333333333332, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.111111111111111, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8484170", "team": "MTL", "name": "Jacob Fowler", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-23T17:12:10.576Z", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-23", "games": 4, "savePct": 0.9, "gaa": 2.163895011019836, "gsax": 2.1389999999999993, "goalsAllowed": 9.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 11.139, "shotsAgainst": 90.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9828963086689823, "factor": 0.9828963086689823, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter for October 23; Daily Faceoff confirmation.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.05056708653063896, "goalHistoryGoals": 5.0, "goalHistoryShots": 113.0, "goalExpected": 0.06783982437012875, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.06667951295415162, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.06558986867752559, "goalProbability": 0.06450503268286448, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.10848359946611097, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 8, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.3415806411750482, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.711340206185567, "Current_PP_SOG60": 22.406639004149376, "Current_5v5_Min": 16.166666666666668, "Current_PP_Share": 0.23956262425447317, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.173148148148148, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.2392929460275386, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9711545151193198, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9819199317155711, "Position_Factor": 1.0001333630485962, "Input_GP": 8, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 482.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2012.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.671532846715328, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 7.944514501891551, "Prior_5v5_Min": 15.50943396226415, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.46099026102183904, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9848286195916839, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.34640522875817, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.8848687562596825, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.9290734702262682, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.8714440757470333, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.912275758443326, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 3.682864450127877, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 9.67741935483871, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 4.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 2.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five saved meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. Dated 2024–2026 regular-season appearances.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020031", "date": "20251011", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "toi": 25.966666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2024021285", "date": "20250414", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 26.866666666666667 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Ethan Del Mastro", "Sam Rinzel" ], "lineupSource": "NHL.com projected lineup", "isHome": true, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:35:35.615148+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/chicago-blackhawks/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-22T16:55:34.203Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 14, "priorAttempts": 105, "fitPct": -3.837708124677249, "index": 96.16229187532275, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 73.42857142857142, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.711511602468903, "currentAttempts": 11, "priorAttempts": 69 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 8.095238095238095, "opponentDeltaPct": -5.805766108288097, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 10 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 1.142857142857143, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.5231164238779513, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 1.142857142857143, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.4830868449991215, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 16.19047619047619, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.49406869911976514, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 20 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.365981626756792, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 21, "fitPct": -2.3642176591243924, "index": 97.63578234087561, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 68.57142857142857, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.8191755597579373, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 15 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 7.6190476190476195, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.365371878175409, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 21.904761904761905, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.116979926964163, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.921488030021976, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 1.9047619047619049, "opponentDeltaPct": 19.17564972004449, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 88.51112253515706, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -3.837708124677249, "zonePPFit": -2.3642176591243924, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October23 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported unit only. Expected PP minutes retain measured current-season deployment; no guessed transfer.", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8484170", "goalieName": "Jacob Fowler", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8483506", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "window": "2021–22 through October21, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked attempts", "coverageNote": "Observed saved encounters only; missing is unavailable, not zero. Not independently established as complete career coverage." }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8484170", "goalieName": "Jacob Fowler", "opponent": "CHI", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "coverageNote": "Last five observed goalie/team regular-season appearances. Historical coverage is not independently established as career-complete." }, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.2936512214083045, "attemptProjection": 1.2856058235216448, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261021", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 25.0, "sog": 8.0, "seconds": 7760.0, "expectedMinutes": 16.166666666666668, "projectedAttempts": 3.125, "onNet": 0.3702590378593794, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.916154770019487, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0295873524263528 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 3.0, "sog": 3.0, "seconds": 482.0, "expectedMinutes": 1.2392929460275386, "projectedAttempts": 0.4628064943671305, "onNet": 0.45826810579220567, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9091960351585663, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0070808959552022 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.9814267958627774, "ppAdjusted": 0.30820172660219725, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.2896285224649746, "baseline": 1.509433962264151, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 53.0, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.377550698384645, "adjustedSOG": 1.3415806411750482, "reductionPct": 2.611160318946981, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.9814267958627774, "afterPlayerForm": 0.9457732349418013, "afterRecentDefense": 0.967025092818925, "afterRecentZones": 0.9814267958627775, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.9670250928189252, "adjusted": 0.9318947211964321, "playerFactor": 0.963671706263499, "defenseFactor": 0.985325749098595, "oldChartFactor": 0.8848687562596825, "newChartFactor": 0.8848687562596825, "playerRecentAttempts": 12.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 78.9, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.7868187579214195, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9310963862455485, "defenseRecentMinutes": 244.7, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.30820172660219725, "afterPlayerForm": 0.30820172660219725, "afterRecentDefense": 0.29964569188590817, "afterRecentZones": 0.30628657378877844, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.29778370591921416, "adjusted": 0.29778370591921416, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9722388488519644, "oldChartFactor": 0.9290734702262682, "newChartFactor": 0.9206448223994305, "playerRecentAttempts": 2.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 5.083333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.0535519125683062, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8240542632130013, "defenseRecentMinutes": 33.28333333333333, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.3415806411750482, "adjustedSOG": 1.3415806411750482, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.054945054945054944, "goalHistoryGoals": 5.0, "goalHistoryShots": 91.0, "goalExpected": 0.07936128880927232, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.07936128880927232, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.0762938605389156, "goalProbability": 0.0762938605389156, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05770789431026098, "modelSOG": 1.3415806411750482, "historyGames": 70, "seasonGames": { "2024": 9, "2025": 53, "2026": 8 }, "historyGoals": 5.0, "historyShots": 113.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.04424778761061947, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.05056708653063896, "goalieFactor": 0.9828963086689823, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 39.328750908205905, "btb": { "id": "8483506", "name": "Sam Rinzel", "score": 39.328750908205905, "components": { "Goal model": 17.391304347826086, "SOG model": 43.47826086956522, "Unit attack": 54.54545454545455, "Opposing lines": 57.69230769230769, "Opposing pairs": 52.7972027972028, "PP": 25.0, "Shot quality": 27.536231884057973, "Goalie": 37.32394366197183, "Team H2H": 58.07692307692308, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": true, "games": 8, "exactGames": 1, "individualGames": 7, "roleGames": 1, "exactMinutes": 11.683333333333334, "exactWeight": 0.16298535224366426, "individualWeight": 0.5075576225976336, "venueGames": 4, "venueFallback": false, "shares": [ 0.21774535074914042, 0.2118217466596137, 0.22446164111429703, 0.17403651281922064, 0.17193474865772806 ], "units": [ { "unit": 1, "names": [ "Cole Caufield", "Oliver Kapanen", "Juraj Slafkovsky" ], "share": 0.21774535074914042, "xGA60": 2.393836441797616 }, { "unit": 3, "names": [ "Zack Bolduc", "Phillip Danault", "Alexandre Texier" ], "share": 0.2118217466596137, "xGA60": 1.4811345950049914 }, { "unit": 2, "names": [ "Chris Kreider", "Alex Newhook", "Josh Anderson" ], "share": 0.22446164111429703, "xGA60": 3.419916688602215 }, { "unit": 4, "names": [ "Kirby Dach", "Owen Beck", "Jake Evans" ], "share": 0.17403651281922064, "xGA60": 2.466061001042222 } ], "otherShare": 0.17193474865772806, "weightedXGA60": 2.44697406478995, "score": 57.69230769230769 }, "pair": { "available": true, "games": 8, "exactGames": 1, "individualGames": 7, "roleGames": 1, "exactMinutes": 11.683333333333334, "exactWeight": 0.16298535224366426, "individualWeight": 0.5075576225976336, "venueGames": 4, "venueFallback": false, "shares": [ 0.3193646363883582, 0.29224236242734813, 0.26914575006062713, 0.11924725112366644 ], "units": [ { "unit": 1, "names": [ "Lane Hutson", "Noah Dobson" ], "share": 0.3193646363883582, "xGA60": 2.66866610905572 }, { "unit": 2, "names": [ "Kaiden Guhle", "Alexandre Carrier" ], "share": 0.29224236242734813, "xGA60": 2.6426590844163664 }, { "unit": 3, "names": [ "Arber Xhekaj", "Mike Matheson" ], "share": 0.26914575006062713, "xGA60": 2.4777575426949268 } ], "otherShare": 0.11924725112366644, "weightedXGA60": 2.5793954256941203, "score": 52.7972027972028 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.959005107536269, "unitPlayers": [ "Ethan Del Mastro", "Sam Rinzel" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 2, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 59 } }, { "id": "8482737", "name": "Zack Bolduc", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "CHI", "position": "L", "currentGP": 9, "currentSOG": 1.7777777777777777, "priorSOG": 1.294871794871795, "currentTOI": 13.955555555555556, "currentFiveTOI": 12.079629629629629, "ppShare": 0.354157501099868, "rate": 1.481778249633834, "fifty": 1.595452226288124, "inputs": { "Player": "Zachary Bolduc", "Player_ID": "8482737", "Team": "MTL", "Opponent": "CHI", "Position": "R", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.1587962665499685, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.3712161965947225, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 9, "Prior_GP": 78, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 6.070826306913997, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.207015006327969, "Current_PP_SOG60": 13.416149068322982, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 9.753454348415064, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 12.001253561253561, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 12.079629629629629, "Current_PP_Share": 0.354157501099868, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.3320027423556836, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 805.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2273.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 5, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.349074074074074, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 1.5113514001107866, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 1.5402572061722961, "Other_State_SOG": 0.033760683760683766, "Environment_Proxy": 1.1241623654244617, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.294871794871795, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 3", "ppUnit": "PP2 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-23", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:35:35.615148+00:00", "priorGP": 78.0, "currentTotalSOG": 16.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.4907407407407407, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.78 SOG/game in 9 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 9 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 23 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 2.388, "currentIXG": 0.2653333333333333, "priorTOI": 13.631410256410257, "priorPPTOI": 1.5773504273504273, "deploymentChange": 0.32414529914529844, "ppTOIChange": -0.0866096866096866, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020536", "date": "20251218", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 2.0, "toi": 16.383333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020031", "date": "20251011", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "toi": 16.7 }, { "gameId": "2024021107", "date": "20250322", "team": "STL", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "toi": 16.016666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020883", "date": "20250208", "team": "STL", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 14.333333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020592", "date": "20241231", "team": "STL", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 13.283333333333333 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 5, "h2hSOG": 1.4, "opponentDefense": { "team": "CHI", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 275.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 30.555555555555557, "mostAllowedRank": 4, "fiveSogAllowed60": 29.037678778147054, "pkSogAllowed60": 51.98019801980198, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 47.0, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 88.0, "D": 70.0, "R": 50.0, "L": 67.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.777777777777779, "L": 7.444444444444445, "R": 5.555555555555555, "D": 7.777777777777778 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 30.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.8, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 30.555555555555557, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.444444444444445, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8481519", "team": "CHI", "name": "Spencer Knight", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-23T17:38:57.370Z", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-23", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.8878923766816144, "gaa": 3.589375448671931, "gsax": -1.0060000000000002, "goalsAllowed": 25.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 23.994, "shotsAgainst": 223.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0134476231189056, "factor": 1.0134476231189056, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter for October 23; Daily Faceoff confirmation.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.14197527103671626, "goalHistoryGoals": 35.0, "goalHistoryShots": 237.0, "goalExpected": 0.2353639139449914, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.23852899915551418, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.20971679778532093, "goalProbability": 0.21221415719827405, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.24973594129531207, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 9, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.6577810503642136, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 6.070826306913997, "Current_PP_SOG60": 13.416149068322982, "Current_5v5_Min": 12.079629629629629, "Current_PP_Share": 0.354157501099868, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.349074074074074, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.5402572061722961, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.2222222222222222, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0652555848758556, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0415262503506049, "Position_Factor": 1.0368080348179562, "Input_GP": 9, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 805.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2273.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.207015006327969, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 9.753454348415064, "Prior_5v5_Min": 11.818376068376068, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.3320027423556836, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.15, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.062091503267974, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.25, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.2060278615907543, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.15, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 6.877387981938173, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 16, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 0.6666666666666666 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five saved meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. Dated 2024–2026 regular-season appearances.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020536", "date": "20251218", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 2.0, "toi": 16.383333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020031", "date": "20251011", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "toi": 16.7 }, { "gameId": "2024021107", "date": "20250322", "team": "STL", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "toi": 16.016666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020883", "date": "20250208", "team": "STL", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 14.333333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020592", "date": "20241231", "team": "STL", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 13.283333333333333 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Zack Bolduc", "Phillip Danault", "Alexandre Texier" ], "lineupSource": "NHL.com projected lineup", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "rosterPosition": "L", "projectedPosition": "L", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:35:35.615148+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/montreal-canadiens/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-22T16:05:24.999Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 16, "priorAttempts": 149, "fitPct": 10.163872959833569, "index": 110.16387295983357, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 13.94295302013423, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.6823628774928636, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 24 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 25.469798657718123, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.333228225851869, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 39 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 42.348993288590606, "opponentDeltaPct": 17.724165752730244, "currentAttempts": 8, "priorAttempts": 46 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 8.582214765100671, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.874621784366013, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 18 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 7.776845637583893, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.336952686487635, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 15 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 1.8791946308724834, "opponentDeltaPct": -11.504840448330498, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 7 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 31, "fitPct": 6.867595386358474, "index": 106.86759538635847, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 2.5806451612903225, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.4028975883336443, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 30.48387096774194, "opponentDeltaPct": 13.01574130857064, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 12 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 51.451612903225794, "opponentDeltaPct": 8.387003790885572, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 3.870967741935485, "opponentDeltaPct": -19.944089475898465, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 10.32258064516129, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.7605264681782984, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 8 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 1.2903225806451613, "opponentDeltaPct": -44.57933713730726, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 10.163872959833569, "zonePPFit": 6.867595386358474, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October23 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported unit only. Expected PP minutes retain measured current-season deployment; no guessed transfer.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481519", "goalieName": "Spencer Knight", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8482737", "goals": 4, "sog": 8, "shootingPct": 0.5, "gamesWithAttempts": 3, "recordedAttempts": 11, "log": [ { "goals": 2, "sog": 2, "attempts": 3, "gameId": "2025020536", "date": "20251218" }, { "goals": 1, "sog": 3, "attempts": 4, "gameId": "2025020031", "date": "20251011" }, { "goals": 1, "sog": 3, "attempts": 4, "gameId": "2024020866", "date": "20250206" } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "window": "2021–22 through October21, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked attempts", "coverageNote": "Observed saved encounters only; missing is unavailable, not zero. Not independently established as complete career coverage." }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481519", "goalieName": "Spencer Knight", "opponent": "MTL", "games": 4, "availableGames": 4, "shotsAgainst": 118.0, "goalsAgainst": 13.0, "savePct": 0.8898305084745762, "gaa": 3.269526337851055, "gsax": 0.5030000000000001, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020536", "date": "20251218", "goalieTeam": "CHI", "opponent": "MTL", "shotsAgainst": 34.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3563.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.275 }, { "gameId": "2025020031", "date": "20251011", "goalieTeam": "CHI", "opponent": "MTL", "shotsAgainst": 28.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3585.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.45 }, { "gameId": "2024020566", "date": "20241228", "goalieTeam": "FLA", "opponent": "MTL", "shotsAgainst": 25.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3566.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.261 }, { "gameId": "2021021020", "date": "20220324", "goalieTeam": "FLA", "opponent": "MTL", "shotsAgainst": 31.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.517 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "coverageNote": "Last five observed goalie/team regular-season appearances. Historical coverage is not independently established as career-complete." }, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 2.0238439165077966, "attemptProjection": 1.9116238731227329, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261021", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 21.0, "sog": 11.0, "seconds": 6523.0, "expectedMinutes": 12.079629629629629, "projectedAttempts": 2.333333333333333, "onNet": 0.5012897678417885, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0621717863909321, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0519965736844064 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 6.0, "sog": 3.0, "seconds": 805.0, "expectedMinutes": 1.5402572061722961, "projectedAttempts": 0.688810676052207, "onNet": 0.5540263876251138, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.938442005242464, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.067787892452511 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.356276460389668, "ppAdjusted": 0.3892352122033744, "other": 0.2222222222222222 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.9677338948152647, "baseline": 1.294871794871795, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 78.0, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.6985890548378766, "adjustedSOG": 1.6916133166981773, "reductionPct": 0.41067838744346385, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.356276460389668, "afterPlayerForm": 1.3550269462162479, "afterRecentDefense": 1.356276460389668, "afterRecentZones": 1.356276460389668, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.356276460389668, "adjusted": 1.3550269462162479, "playerFactor": 0.9990787172011663, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.25, "newChartFactor": 1.25, "playerRecentAttempts": 12.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 62.5, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.9939809523809525, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.1957808652607136, "defenseRecentMinutes": 241.91666666666666, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.3892352122033744, "afterPlayerForm": 0.37889827987089153, "afterRecentDefense": 0.3892352122033744, "afterRecentZones": 0.3891943431147129, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.3891943431147129, "adjusted": 0.3788584961439618, "playerFactor": 0.973442967109867, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.2060278615907543, "newChartFactor": 1.2057789675057327, "playerRecentAttempts": 3.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 8.816666666666666, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.7608695652173914, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0243821773082225, "defenseRecentMinutes": 25.916666666666668, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.6916133166981773, "adjustedSOG": 1.6577810503642136, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.13675213675213677, "goalHistoryGoals": 16.0, "goalHistoryShots": 117.0, "goalExpected": 0.20263634183026794, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.20263634183026794, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.18342485834129546, "goalProbability": 0.18342485834129546, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12845666339373382, "modelSOG": 1.6577810503642136, "historyGames": 159, "seasonGames": { "2024": 72, "2025": 78, "2026": 9 }, "historyGoals": 35.0, "historyShots": 237.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.14767932489451477, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.14197527103671626, "goalieFactor": 1.0134476231189056, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 66.05897661346602, "btb": { "id": "8482737", "name": "Zack Bolduc", "score": 66.05897661346602, "components": { "Goal model": 71.01449275362319, "SOG model": 66.66666666666667, "Unit attack": 80.0, "Opposing lines": 67.35537190082644, "Opposing pairs": 70.45454545454545, "PP": 44.64285714285714, "Shot quality": 78.26086956521739, "Goalie": 62.67605633802817, "Team H2H": 62.56410256410256, "Goalie H2H": 56.89655172413793 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": true, "weightedXGA60": 2.723700673558638, "games": 6, "exactGames": 4, "shares": [ 0.2550934602621433, 0.2853291813104905, 0.2527042982637952, 0.20687306016357093 ], "score": 67.35537190082644 }, "pair": { "available": true, "weightedXGA60": 2.888436406104264, "games": 5, "exactGames": 2, "shares": [ 0.33841137071134697, 0.26385177189897746, 0.26299194776099843, 0.13474490962867705 ], "score": 70.45454545454545 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 3.140927639641678, "unitPlayers": [ "Zack Bolduc", "Phillip Danault", "Alexandre Texier" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 5, "goalieH2HShots": 8, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 8 } }, { "id": "8477476", "name": "Artturi Lehkonen", "team": "COL", "opponent": "TBL", "position": "L", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 1.6, "priorSOG": 2.1857142857142855, "currentTOI": 19.0, "currentFiveTOI": 15.056666666666667, "ppShare": 0.2527579493835172, "rate": 1.8851462136744443, "fifty": 1.7215074727736732, "inputs": { "Player": "Artturi Lehkonen", "Player_ID": "8477476", "Team": "COL", "Opponent": "TBL", "Position": "L", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.8130485542901216, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.6454518048212914, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 10, "Prior_GP": 70, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.383440336506531, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 7.161528976572133, "Current_PP_SOG60": 18.485237483953785, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 9.1806186938685, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 14.884309523809524, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 15.056666666666667, "Current_PP_Share": 0.2527579493835172, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.39200722664432336, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 779.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3082.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 5, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.795185185185185, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 1.4123389957322572, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 1.2120211743216287, "Other_State_SOG": 0.1257142857142857, "Environment_Proxy": 0.8844868901771036, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 2.1857142857142855, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 1", "ppUnit": "PP2 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-23", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:35:35.615148+00:00", "priorGP": 70.0, "currentTotalSOG": 16.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.2983333333333333, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.60 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 23 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 4.16, "currentIXG": 0.41600000000000004, "priorTOI": 18.481428571428573, "priorPPTOI": 2.1473809523809524, "deploymentChange": 0.5185714285714269, "ppTOIChange": -0.849047619047619, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020668", "date": "20260106", "team": "COL", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 18.916666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2025020209", "date": "20251104", "team": "COL", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 20.283333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2024020334", "date": "20241125", "team": "COL", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 20.533333333333335 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 3, "h2hSOG": 1.6666666666666667, "opponentDefense": { "team": "TBL", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 218.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 24.22222222222222, "mostAllowedRank": 29, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.310572168589594, "pkSogAllowed60": 47.9002079002079, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 36.333333333333336, "positionUnassignedSOG": 1.0, "positionTotals": { "L": 36.0, "R": 49.0, "D": 66.0, "C": 66.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.333333333333333, "L": 4.0, "R": 5.444444444444445, "D": 7.333333333333333 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 24.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.25, "positionSourceDifference": 1.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 24.22222222222222, "oppPosSogAllowed": 4.0, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8476883", "team": "TBL", "name": "Andrei Vasilevskiy", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-23T17:44:29.480Z", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-23", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.8975903614457832, "gaa": 2.4556616643929057, "gsax": 1.495000000000001, "goalsAllowed": 17.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 18.495, "shotsAgainst": 166.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9911791106382869, "factor": 0.9911791106382869, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter for October 23; Daily Faceoff confirmation.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.16507455045342911, "goalHistoryGoals": 56.0, "goalHistoryShots": 317.0, "goalExpected": 0.28191728838725477, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.27943052717723665, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.24566392569386825, "goalProbability": 0.2437857376702952, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.18781880235730353, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.7078179986732076, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.383440336506531, "Current_PP_SOG60": 18.485237483953785, "Current_5v5_Min": 15.056666666666667, "Current_PP_Share": 0.2527579493835172, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.795185185185185, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.2120211743216287, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.1, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9588832837562793, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0032616490671127, "Position_Factor": 0.9867937882386387, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 779.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3082.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 7.161528976572133, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 9.1806186938685, "Prior_5v5_Min": 14.482142857142858, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.39200722664432336, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9006149977914444, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.062091503267974, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.8568380743633854, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.0444836948785239, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0478904341475388, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 4.4285890023373105, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 18.94736842105263, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 2.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five saved meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. Dated 2024–2026 regular-season appearances.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020668", "date": "20260106", "team": "COL", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 18.916666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2025020209", "date": "20251104", "team": "COL", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 20.283333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2024020334", "date": "20241125", "team": "COL", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 20.533333333333335 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Artturi Lehkonen", "Nathan MacKinnon", "Martin Necas" ], "lineupSource": "NHL.com projected lineup", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "rosterPosition": "L", "projectedPosition": "L", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:35:35.615148+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/colorado-avalanche/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-22T17:33:02.593Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 20, "priorAttempts": 183, "fitPct": -4.772064187887153, "index": 95.22793581211285, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 2.6229508196721314, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.515281930842562, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 12 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 36.02185792349727, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.609652563126957, "currentAttempts": 8, "priorAttempts": 55 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 45.95628415300547, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.85621916135625, "currentAttempts": 10, "priorAttempts": 73 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 8.245901639344263, "opponentDeltaPct": -12.897287560223589, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 24 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 5.841530054644808, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.418201733515886, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 13 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 1.3114754098360657, "opponentDeltaPct": -11.722552252061064, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 6 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 32, "fitPct": 1.4827898292841297, "index": 101.48278982928413, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 2.5, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.0484005739127014, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 43.75, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.8060162233483652, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 11 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 47.5, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.6036826641455946, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 14 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 3.7500000000000004, "opponentDeltaPct": -15.514716416172803, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 1.25, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.241804509586572, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 1.25, "opponentDeltaPct": 40.87182317476231, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -4.772064187887153, "zonePPFit": 1.4827898292841297, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October23 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported unit only. Expected PP minutes retain measured current-season deployment; no guessed transfer.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476883", "goalieName": "Andrei Vasilevskiy", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8477476", "goals": 2, "sog": 15, "shootingPct": 0.13333333333333333, "gamesWithAttempts": 7, "recordedAttempts": 21, "log": [ { "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2, "gameId": "2025020668", "date": "20260106" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1, "gameId": "2025020209", "date": "20251104" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2, "gameId": "2024020334", "date": "20241125" }, { "goals": 1, "sog": 1, "attempts": 4, "gameId": "2023020842", "date": "20240215" }, { "goals": 1, "sog": 4, "attempts": 5, "gameId": "2022020862", "date": "20230214" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 3, "gameId": "2022020821", "date": "20230209" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 4, "gameId": "2021020390", "date": "20211207" } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "window": "2021–22 through October21, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked attempts", "coverageNote": "Observed saved encounters only; missing is unavailable, not zero. Not independently established as complete career coverage." }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476883", "goalieName": "Andrei Vasilevskiy", "opponent": "COL", "games": 5, "availableGames": 13, "shotsAgainst": 157.0, "goalsAgainst": 12.0, "savePct": 0.9235668789808917, "gaa": 2.4254674077817078, "gsax": 7.298, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020668", "date": "20260106", "goalieTeam": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "shotsAgainst": 33.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.223 }, { "gameId": "2025020209", "date": "20251104", "goalieTeam": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "shotsAgainst": 33.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3420.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.409 }, { "gameId": "2024020334", "date": "20241125", "goalieTeam": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "shotsAgainst": 25.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.459 }, { "gameId": "2024020157", "date": "20241030", "goalieTeam": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "shotsAgainst": 35.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.364 }, { "gameId": "2023020842", "date": "20240215", "goalieTeam": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "shotsAgainst": 31.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3591.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.843 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "coverageNote": "Last five observed goalie/team regular-season appearances. Historical coverage is not independently established as career-complete." }, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.426291007308622, "attemptProjection": 1.4072954510454605, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261021", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 23.0, "sog": 11.0, "seconds": 9034.0, "expectedMinutes": 15.056666666666667, "projectedAttempts": 2.3, "onNet": 0.48755580159954776, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9399951775173531, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9886177218479464 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 5.0, "sog": 4.0, "seconds": 779.0, "expectedMinutes": 1.2120211743216287, "projectedAttempts": 0.46676040089408044, "onNet": 0.5822814128546614, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9635919869864824, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0126481883452998 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.9885461434879302, "ppAdjusted": 0.3282470856891109, "other": 0.1 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.416793229177041, "baseline": 2.1857142857142855, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 70.0, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.724361651791939, "adjustedSOG": 1.7078179986732076, "reductionPct": 0.9594073900645705, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.9885461434879302, "afterPlayerForm": 0.9885461434879302, "afterRecentDefense": 0.9885461434879302, "afterRecentZones": 0.9885461434879302, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.9885461434879302, "adjusted": 0.9885461434879302, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.8568380743633854, "newChartFactor": 0.8568380743633854, "playerRecentAttempts": 14.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 79.58333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.1516139312542681, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0299737019606061, "defenseRecentMinutes": 244.35, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.3282470856891109, "afterPlayerForm": 0.30067433049122555, "afterRecentDefense": 0.3282470856891109, "afterRecentZones": 0.3282470856891109, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.3282470856891109, "adjusted": 0.30067433049122555, "playerFactor": 0.916, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.0444836948785239, "newChartFactor": 1.0444836948785239, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 5.833333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.0, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.04528859527121, "defenseRecentMinutes": 23.966666666666665, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.7078179986732076, "adjustedSOG": 1.7078179986732076, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.17159763313609466, "goalHistoryGoals": 29.0, "goalHistoryShots": 169.0, "goalExpected": 0.3234866283820052, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.3234866283820052, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.2763783661502487, "goalProbability": 0.2763783661502487, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12836087539079946, "modelSOG": 1.7078179986732076, "historyGames": 149, "seasonGames": { "2024": 69, "2025": 70, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 56.0, "historyShots": 317.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.17665615141955837, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.16507455045342911, "goalieFactor": 0.9911791106382869, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 60.68260793017023, "btb": { "id": "8477476", "name": "Artturi Lehkonen", "score": 60.68260793017023, "components": { "Goal model": 84.05797101449275, "SOG model": 69.56521739130434, "Unit attack": 86.66666666666667, "Opposing lines": 22.727272727272727, "Opposing pairs": 40.90909090909091, "PP": 56.42857142857143, "Shot quality": 97.10144927536231, "Goalie": 11.971830985915492, "Team H2H": 46.62721893491124, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": true, "weightedXGA60": 2.0817124528095157, "games": 6, "exactGames": 5, "shares": [ 0.31306731967034584, 0.25642942336370306, 0.25561523152915855, 0.1748880254367925 ], "score": 22.727272727272727 }, "pair": { "available": true, "weightedXGA60": 2.322764700044611, "games": 2, "exactGames": 1, "shares": [ 0.3756136612550117, 0.30810919743134657, 0.30218232685591, 0.014094814457731614 ], "score": 40.90909090909091 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 3.3319209217672654, "unitPlayers": [ "Artturi Lehkonen", "Nathan MacKinnon", "Martin Necas" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 3, "goalieH2HShots": 15, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 16 } }, { "id": "8475754", "name": "Brock Nelson", "team": "COL", "opponent": "TBL", "position": "C", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 1.9, "priorSOG": 2.2962962962962963, "currentTOI": 18.503333333333334, "currentFiveTOI": 14.578333333333333, "ppShare": 0.2280986372485399, "rate": 1.9497871809299707, "fifty": 1.8576832761106754, "inputs": { "Player": "Brock Nelson", "Player_ID": "8475754", "Team": "COL", "Opponent": "TBL", "Position": "C", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.7980702248110143, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.5761462047891839, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 10, "Prior_GP": 81, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.761975534468961, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 7.1591979545148705, "Current_PP_SOG60": 15.362731152204836, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 7.888446215139442, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 14.333166666666667, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 14.578333333333333, "Current_PP_Share": 0.2280986372485399, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.5656837189095253, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 703.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3082.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 5, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.795185185185185, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 1.5794101007912147, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 1.0937752060951282, "Other_State_SOG": 0.2311111111111111, "Environment_Proxy": 0.8844868901771036, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 2.2962962962962963, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 2", "ppUnit": "PP2 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-23", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:35:35.615148+00:00", "priorGP": 81.0, "currentTotalSOG": 19.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.1716666666666666, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.90 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 23 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 2.9499999999999997, "currentIXG": 0.295, "priorTOI": 19.65329218106996, "priorPPTOI": 3.0987654320987654, "deploymentChange": -1.1499588477366274, "ppTOIChange": -1.9270987654320988, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020668", "date": "20260106", "team": "COL", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 1.0, "toi": 22.233333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020209", "date": "20251104", "team": "COL", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 17.5 }, { "gameId": "2024020829", "date": "20250201", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "away", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 20.25 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 3, "h2hSOG": 3.6666666666666665, "opponentDefense": { "team": "TBL", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 218.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 24.22222222222222, "mostAllowedRank": 29, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.310572168589594, "pkSogAllowed60": 47.9002079002079, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 36.333333333333336, "positionUnassignedSOG": 1.0, "positionTotals": { "L": 36.0, "R": 49.0, "D": 66.0, "C": 66.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.333333333333333, "L": 4.0, "R": 5.444444444444445, "D": 7.333333333333333 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 24.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.25, "positionSourceDifference": 1.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 24.22222222222222, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.333333333333333, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8476883", "team": "TBL", "name": "Andrei Vasilevskiy", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-23T17:44:29.480Z", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-23", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.8975903614457832, "gaa": 2.4556616643929057, "gsax": 1.495000000000001, "goalsAllowed": 17.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 18.495, "shotsAgainst": 166.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9911791106382869, "factor": 0.9911791106382869, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter for October 23; Daily Faceoff confirmation.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.15028116111569254, "goalHistoryGoals": 62.0, "goalHistoryShots": 398.0, "goalExpected": 0.28501303505856823, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.28249896660967055, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.24799554816657843, "goalProbability": 0.24610257897077736, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.18929691958010642, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.896532026653385, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.761975534468961, "Current_PP_SOG60": 15.362731152204836, "Current_5v5_Min": 14.578333333333333, "Current_PP_Share": 0.2280986372485399, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.795185185185185, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.0937752060951282, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.2, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9588832837562793, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0032616490671127, "Position_Factor": 0.985038993166415, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 703.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3082.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 7.1591979545148705, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 7.888446215139442, "Prior_5v5_Min": 13.761111111111113, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.5656837189095253, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.894372357486514, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.437908496732026, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.8599891298000588, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.8443386594385134, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.85, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.9785385794583545, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 15.450643776824034, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 5.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 3.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five saved meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. Dated 2024–2026 regular-season appearances.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020668", "date": "20260106", "team": "COL", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 1.0, "toi": 22.233333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020209", "date": "20251104", "team": "COL", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 17.5 }, { "gameId": "2024020829", "date": "20250201", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "away", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 20.25 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Gabriel Landeskog", "Brock Nelson", "Nazem Kadri" ], "lineupSource": "NHL.com projected lineup", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "rosterPosition": "C", "projectedPosition": "C", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:35:35.615148+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/colorado-avalanche/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-22T17:33:02.593Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 21, "priorAttempts": 185, "fitPct": -4.6670290066647055, "index": 95.3329709933353, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 5.667953667953668, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.515281930842562, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 13 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 37.12741312741313, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.609652563126957, "currentAttempts": 8, "priorAttempts": 66 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 25.915057915057915, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.85621916135625, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 67 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 6.9652509652509655, "opponentDeltaPct": -12.897287560223589, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 19 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 15.32046332046332, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.418201733515886, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 18 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 9.003861003861003, "opponentDeltaPct": -11.722552252061064, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 2 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 50, "fitPct": -5.188711352049552, "index": 94.81128864795045, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 1.6, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.0484005739127014, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 30.4, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.8060162233483652, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 13 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 13.600000000000001, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.6036826641455946, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 17 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 40.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -15.514716416172803, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 14.400000000000002, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.241804509586572, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 18 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 40.87182317476231, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -4.6670290066647055, "zonePPFit": -5.188711352049552, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October23 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported unit only. Expected PP minutes retain measured current-season deployment; no guessed transfer.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476883", "goalieName": "Andrei Vasilevskiy", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8475754", "goals": 3, "sog": 26, "shootingPct": 0.11538461538461539, "gamesWithAttempts": 9, "recordedAttempts": 32, "log": [ { "goals": 1, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2, "gameId": "2025020668", "date": "20260106" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2, "gameId": "2025020209", "date": "20251104" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 5, "attempts": 5, "gameId": "2024020829", "date": "20250201" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 4, "attempts": 4, "gameId": "2023021174", "date": "20240330" }, { "goals": 1, "sog": 4, "attempts": 8, "gameId": "2023020904", "date": "20240224" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2, "gameId": "2022021209", "date": "20230401" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 3, "gameId": "2021021292", "date": "20220429" }, { "goals": 1, "sog": 4, "attempts": 4, "gameId": "2021021048", "date": "20220327" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2, "gameId": "2021020230", "date": "20211115" } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "window": "2021–22 through October21, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked attempts", "coverageNote": "Observed saved encounters only; missing is unavailable, not zero. Not independently established as complete career coverage." }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476883", "goalieName": "Andrei Vasilevskiy", "opponent": "COL", "games": 5, "availableGames": 13, "shotsAgainst": 157.0, "goalsAgainst": 12.0, "savePct": 0.9235668789808917, "gaa": 2.4254674077817078, "gsax": 7.298, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020668", "date": "20260106", "goalieTeam": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "shotsAgainst": 33.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.223 }, { "gameId": "2025020209", "date": "20251104", "goalieTeam": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "shotsAgainst": 33.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3420.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.409 }, { "gameId": "2024020334", "date": "20241125", "goalieTeam": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "shotsAgainst": 25.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.459 }, { "gameId": "2024020157", "date": "20241030", "goalieTeam": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "shotsAgainst": 35.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.364 }, { "gameId": "2023020842", "date": "20240215", "goalieTeam": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "shotsAgainst": 31.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3591.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.843 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "coverageNote": "Last five observed goalie/team regular-season appearances. Historical coverage is not independently established as career-complete." }, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.628047804455981, "attemptProjection": 1.631997222660241, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261021", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 27.0, "sog": 14.0, "seconds": 8747.0, "expectedMinutes": 14.578333333333333, "projectedAttempts": 2.7, "onNet": 0.5101608317181496, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9399951775173531, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9886177218479464 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 3.0, "sog": 3.0, "seconds": 703.0, "expectedMinutes": 1.0937752060951282, "projectedAttempts": 0.28005624053644823, "onNet": 0.5560488346281909, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9635919869864824, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0126481883452998 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.2350219922598062, "ppAdjusted": 0.19500052129830478, "other": 0.2 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.630022513558111, "baseline": 2.2962962962962963, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 81.0, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.896532026653385, "adjustedSOG": 1.896532026653385, "reductionPct": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.2350219922598062, "afterPlayerForm": 1.2350219922598062, "afterRecentDefense": 1.2350219922598062, "afterRecentZones": 1.2350219922598062, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.2350219922598062, "adjusted": 1.2350219922598062, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.8599891298000588, "newChartFactor": 0.8599891298000588, "playerRecentAttempts": 17.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 80.96666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.1336703109037403, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.1463936017832808, "defenseRecentMinutes": 244.35, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.19500052129830478, "afterPlayerForm": 0.19500052129830478, "afterRecentDefense": 0.1950005212983048, "afterRecentZones": 0.19500052129830478, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.1950005212983048, "adjusted": 0.1950005212983048, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.8443386594385134, "newChartFactor": 0.8361275143515026, "playerRecentAttempts": 2.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 5.483333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.4245187436676796, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.04528859527121, "defenseRecentMinutes": 23.966666666666665, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.896532026653385, "adjustedSOG": 1.896532026653385, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.17560975609756097, "goalHistoryGoals": 36.0, "goalHistoryShots": 205.0, "goalExpected": 0.3424016512852631, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.3424016512852631, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.2899370502698792, "goalProbability": 0.2899370502698792, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12840018235614872, "modelSOG": 1.896532026653385, "historyGames": 171, "seasonGames": { "2024": 80, "2025": 81, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 62.0, "historyShots": 398.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.15577889447236182, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.15028116111569254, "goalieFactor": 0.9911791106382869, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 59.43375659241409, "btb": { "id": "8475754", "name": "Brock Nelson", "score": 59.43375659241409, "components": { "Goal model": 85.5072463768116, "SOG model": 73.91304347826087, "Unit attack": 73.33333333333333, "Opposing lines": 27.685950413223143, "Opposing pairs": 38.311688311688314, "PP": 56.42857142857143, "Shot quality": 81.15942028985508, "Goalie": 11.971830985915492, "Team H2H": 57.27810650887574, "Goalie H2H": 44.557416267942585 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": true, "weightedXGA60": 2.0885581411195586, "games": 6, "exactGames": 5, "shares": [ 0.28506518270294967, 0.2814670312028723, 0.23787322774956632, 0.1955945583446116 ], "score": 27.685950413223143 }, "pair": { "available": true, "weightedXGA60": 2.3061982898948314, "games": 2, "exactGames": 1, "shares": [ 0.2814590834430624, 0.3394715252135586, 0.2774803531892856, 0.10158903815409338 ], "score": 38.311688311688314 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 3.0991299369671528, "unitPlayers": [ "Gabriel Landeskog", "Brock Nelson", "Nazem Kadri" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 3, "goalieH2HShots": 26, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 19 } }, { "id": "8475167", "name": "Victor Hedman", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "position": "D", "currentGP": 9, "currentSOG": 1.4444444444444444, "priorSOG": 1.5151515151515151, "currentTOI": 14.435185185185183, "currentFiveTOI": 11.457407407407407, "ppShare": 0.011239782016348773, "rate": 1.188704927470594, "fifty": 1.2319978341509987, "inputs": { "Player": "Victor Hedman", "Player_ID": "8475167", "Team": "TBL", "Opponent": "COL", "Position": "D", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.0512728548678443, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 0.8866515866239619, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 9, "Prior_GP": 33, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 6.400517213512203, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.801063132600306, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 11.667913238593867, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 12.181700336700334, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 11.457407407407407, "Current_PP_Share": 0.011239782016348773, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.3998847405202725, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 33.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2936.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 5, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.612685185185185, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.5896546287079109, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.051845575991522855, "Other_State_SOG": 0.21313131313131314, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9914667421548949, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.5151515151515151, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 3", "ppUnit": "PP assignment pending", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-23", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:35:35.615148+00:00", "priorGP": 33.0, "currentTotalSOG": 13.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.061111111111111116, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.44 SOG/game in 9 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 9 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 23 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.671, "currentIXG": 0.07455555555555556, "priorTOI": 18.86717171717172, "priorPPTOI": 2.0257575757575754, "deploymentChange": -4.431986531986535, "ppTOIChange": -1.9646464646464643, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020209", "date": "20251104", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 19.066666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020334", "date": "20241125", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 19.95 }, { "gameId": "2024020157", "date": "20241030", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 25.366666666666667 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 3, "h2hSOG": 1.3333333333333333, "opponentDefense": { "team": "COL", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 273.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.3, "mostAllowedRank": 16, "fiveSogAllowed60": 27.02393375298751, "pkSogAllowed60": 47.51429828420589, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 40.2, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 100.0, "R": 60.0, "L": 45.0, "D": 68.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.0, "L": 4.5, "R": 6.0, "D": 6.8 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 29.0, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.8, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.3, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.8, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8478406", "team": "COL", "name": "Mackenzie Blackwood", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-23T16:26:32.640Z", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-23", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.8888888888888888, "gaa": 2.897734132893307, "gsax": -2.4450000000000003, "goalsAllowed": 20.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 17.555, "shotsAgainst": 180.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0252999843886221, "factor": 1.0252999843886221, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter for October 23; Daily Faceoff confirmation.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.06906439805621757, "goalHistoryGoals": 18.0, "goalHistoryShots": 244.0, "goalExpected": 0.09413302008479804, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.09651458402339728, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.0898383155963859, "goalProbability": 0.09200334474127818, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.21650291448922776, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 9, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.3629745966680968, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 6.400517213512203, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 11.457407407407407, "Current_PP_Share": 0.011239782016348773, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.612685185185185, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.051845575991522855, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.2222222222222222, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0289555868427727, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9996701327073623, "Position_Factor": 0.9904286105353721, "Input_GP": 9, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 33.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2936.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.801063132600306, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 11.667913238593867, "Prior_5v5_Min": 13.87171717171717, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.3998847405202725, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9628113879003559, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.34640522875817, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.0327631660843244, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9943561373100142, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9996701327073623, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 6.005560704355885, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 2.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five saved meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. Dated 2024–2026 regular-season appearances.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020209", "date": "20251104", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 19.066666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020334", "date": "20241125", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 19.95 }, { "gameId": "2024020157", "date": "20241030", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 25.366666666666667 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Victor Hedman", "Max Crozier" ], "lineupSource": "NHL.com projected lineup", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:35:35.615148+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 14, "priorAttempts": 55, "fitPct": 1.092105536144146, "index": 101.09210553614415, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 59.74025974025974, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.604370751696635, "currentAttempts": 8, "priorAttempts": 35 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 5.74025974025974, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.2025641924569896, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 1.4545454545454546, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.26262818174886604, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 30.155844155844157, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.0950116912032684, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 12 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.7272727272727273, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.044692588641311204, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 2.181818181818182, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.6551158457307906, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 22, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 1.092105536144146, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October23 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported unit only. Expected PP minutes retain measured current-season deployment; no guessed transfer.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478406", "goalieName": "Mackenzie Blackwood", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8475167", "goals": 1, "sog": 7, "shootingPct": 0.14285714285714285, "gamesWithAttempts": 4, "recordedAttempts": 10, "log": [ { "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2, "gameId": "2024020413", "date": "20241205" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1, "gameId": "2023021108", "date": "20240321" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2, "gameId": "2023020106", "date": "20231026" }, { "goals": 1, "sog": 4, "attempts": 5, "gameId": "2021020264", "date": "20211120" } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "window": "2021–22 through October21, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked attempts", "coverageNote": "Observed saved encounters only; missing is unavailable, not zero. Not independently established as complete career coverage." }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478406", "goalieName": "Mackenzie Blackwood", "opponent": "TBL", "games": 4, "availableGames": 4, "shotsAgainst": 99.0, "goalsAgainst": 15.0, "savePct": 0.8484848484848485, "gaa": 4.800426704595964, "gsax": -3.8269999999999995, "log": [ { "gameId": "2024020413", "date": "20241205", "goalieTeam": "SJS", "opponent": "TBL", "shotsAgainst": 23.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 2400.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.907 }, { "gameId": "2023021108", "date": "20240321", "goalieTeam": "SJS", "opponent": "TBL", "shotsAgainst": 21.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.592 }, { "gameId": "2023020106", "date": "20231026", "goalieTeam": "SJS", "opponent": "TBL", "shotsAgainst": 21.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 1649.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.962 }, { "gameId": "2021020264", "date": "20211120", "goalieTeam": "NJD", "opponent": "TBL", "shotsAgainst": 34.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.712 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "coverageNote": "Last five observed goalie/team regular-season appearances. Historical coverage is not independently established as career-complete." }, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.437546390045573, "attemptProjection": 1.1782196056302876, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261021", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 19.0, "sog": 11.0, "seconds": 6187.0, "expectedMinutes": 11.457407407407407, "projectedAttempts": 2.111111111111111, "onNet": 0.44593373680367326, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0290266956001277, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9868443082842028 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 33.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.051845575991522855, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.425764192139738, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9649306914974484, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9896116972997503 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.085660775615708, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.2222222222222222 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.3078829978379303, "baseline": 1.5151515151515151, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 33.0, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.3907904047633641, "adjustedSOG": 1.3907904047633641, "reductionPct": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.085660775615708, "afterPlayerForm": 1.085660775615708, "afterRecentDefense": 1.085660775615708, "afterRecentZones": 1.085660775615708, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.085660775615708, "adjusted": 1.085660775615708, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.0327631660843244, "newChartFactor": 1.0327631660843244, "playerRecentAttempts": 12.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 57.35, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.1355939980727756, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0338983050847457, "defenseRecentMinutes": 251.61666666666667, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.03333333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.594204503506829, "defenseRecentMinutes": 15.05, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.3907904047633641, "adjustedSOG": 1.3629745966680968, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.047619047619047616, "goalHistoryGoals": 3.0, "goalHistoryShots": 63.0, "goalExpected": 0.05660499654621876, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.05660499654621876, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.05503273901251835, "goalProbability": 0.05503273901251835, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05758152931338846, "modelSOG": 1.3629745966680968, "historyGames": 121, "seasonGames": { "2024": 79, "2025": 33, "2026": 9 }, "historyGoals": 18.0, "historyShots": 244.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.07377049180327869, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.06906439805621757, "goalieFactor": 1.0252999843886221, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 48.33613185260758, "btb": { "id": "8475167", "name": "Victor Hedman", "score": 48.33613185260758, "components": { "Goal model": 28.985507246376812, "SOG model": 44.927536231884055, "Unit attack": 81.81818181818181, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 41.608391608391614, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 14.492753623188406, "Goalie": 88.02816901408451, "Team H2H": 45.917159763313606, "Goalie H2H": 53.90749601275917 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Incomplete current opposing units or 5v5 minute baselines; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Incomplete current opposing units or 5v5 minute baselines", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": true, "games": 8, "exactGames": 4, "individualGames": 4, "roleGames": 2, "exactMinutes": 23.583333333333332, "exactWeight": 0.28215353938185445, "individualWeight": 0.31500332984492435, "venueGames": 3, "venueFallback": false, "shares": [ 0.33389195285044276, 0.3155914438170684, 0.2702919344574657, 0.08022466887502303 ], "units": [ { "unit": 2, "names": [ "Brett Kulak", "Sam Malinski" ], "share": 0.33389195285044276, "xGA60": 2.386620819090907 }, { "unit": 1, "names": [ "Devon Toews", "Cale Makar" ], "share": 0.3155914438170684, "xGA60": 2.232944179481916 }, { "unit": 3, "names": [ "Josh Manson", "Brent Burns" ], "share": 0.2702919344574657, "xGA60": 2.608622014683556 } ], "otherShare": 0.08022466887502303, "weightedXGA60": 2.3953827891247217, "score": 41.608391608391614 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 3.4424526868784673, "unitPlayers": [ "Victor Hedman", "Max Crozier" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 3, "goalieH2HShots": 7, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 36 } }, { "id": "8474590", "name": "John Carlson", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "position": "D", "currentGP": 9, "currentSOG": 3.0, "priorSOG": 2.1690140845070425, "currentTOI": 19.700000000000003, "currentFiveTOI": 14.529629629629632, "ppShare": 0.7043596730245232, "rate": 2.1143414844629027, "fifty": 2.48409028014349, "inputs": { "Player": "John Carlson", "Player_ID": "8474590", "Team": "TBL", "Opponent": "COL", "Position": "D", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.9221091260698673, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 2.2038426290988955, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 9, "Prior_GP": 71, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 9.63548304868723, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.550202351127385, "Current_PP_SOG60": 8.704061895551257, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 4.475043029259897, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 15.286656233698489, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 14.529629629629632, "Current_PP_Share": 0.7043596730245232, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.46882534200967135, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2068.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2936.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 5, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.612685185185185, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 2.9230557130196857, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 3.2489894288020995, "Other_State_SOG": 0.36604068857589983, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9914667421548949, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 2.1690140845070425, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 1", "ppUnit": "PP2 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-23", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:35:35.615148+00:00", "priorGP": 71.0, "currentTotalSOG": 27.0, "currentPPTOI": 3.82962962962963, "volumeNote": "Observed 3.00 SOG/game in 9 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 9 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 23 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.8880000000000001, "currentIXG": 0.20977777777777779, "priorTOI": 23.160328638497653, "priorPPTOI": 2.454929577464789, "deploymentChange": -3.46032863849765, "ppTOIChange": 1.3747000521648411, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020771", "date": "20260119", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 22.983333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020310", "date": "20241121", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 24.266666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020268", "date": "20241115", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 22.466666666666665 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 3, "h2hSOG": 1.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "COL", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 273.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.3, "mostAllowedRank": 16, "fiveSogAllowed60": 27.02393375298751, "pkSogAllowed60": 47.51429828420589, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 40.2, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 100.0, "R": 60.0, "L": 45.0, "D": 68.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.0, "L": 4.5, "R": 6.0, "D": 6.8 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 29.0, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.8, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.3, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.8, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8478406", "team": "COL", "name": "Mackenzie Blackwood", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-23T16:26:32.640Z", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-23", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.8888888888888888, "gaa": 2.897734132893307, "gsax": -2.4450000000000003, "goalsAllowed": 20.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 17.555, "shotsAgainst": 180.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0252999843886221, "factor": 1.0252999843886221, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter for October 23; Daily Faceoff confirmation.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.061970497545204166, "goalHistoryGoals": 22.0, "goalHistoryShots": 348.0, "goalExpected": 0.14659871572249747, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.1503076609416687, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.13635952676666865, "goalProbability": 0.1395567890703816, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.319726230371295, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 9, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 2.3656210863171068, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 9.63548304868723, "Current_PP_SOG60": 8.704061895551257, "Current_5v5_Min": 14.529629629629632, "Current_PP_Share": 0.7043596730245232, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.612685185185185, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 3.2489894288020995, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.1111111111111111, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0289555868427727, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9996701327073623, "Position_Factor": 0.9904286105353721, "Input_GP": 9, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2068.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2936.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.550202351127385, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 4.475043029259897, "Prior_5v5_Min": 17.05305164319249, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.46882534200967135, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9628113879003559, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.34640522875817, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.003420975712835, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.0652579388699872, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9661051422744039, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0649065451177313, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 8.899229315108332, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 8.858267716535433, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 0.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five saved meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. Dated 2024–2026 regular-season appearances.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020771", "date": "20260119", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 22.983333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020310", "date": "20241121", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 24.266666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020268", "date": "20241115", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 22.466666666666665 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "J.J. Moser", "John Carlson" ], "lineupSource": "NHL.com projected lineup", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:35:35.615148+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/tampa-bay-lightning/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-22T18:13:31.663Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 25, "priorAttempts": 178, "fitPct": 0.11403252376116768, "index": 100.11403252376117, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 57.195505617977524, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.604370751696635, "currentAttempts": 14, "priorAttempts": 105 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 8.620224719101124, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.2025641924569896, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 17 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 7.047191011235955, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.26262818174886604, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 10 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 2.6966292134831464, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.0950116912032684, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 12 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 22.867415730337083, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.044692588641311204, "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 27 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 1.5730337078651686, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.6551158457307906, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 7 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 20, "fitPct": 2.175264628999571, "index": 102.17526462899957, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 92.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.125139957052596, "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 16 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 2.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.208159137665604, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 4.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.03906538797926373, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.5428724091186723, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 2.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 15.136821787266058, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -37.289476773404765, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 0.11403252376116768, "zonePPFit": 2.175264628999571, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October23 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported unit only. Expected PP minutes retain measured current-season deployment; no guessed transfer.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478406", "goalieName": "Mackenzie Blackwood", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8474590", "goals": 1, "sog": 10, "shootingPct": 0.1, "gamesWithAttempts": 5, "recordedAttempts": 19, "log": [ { "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 5, "gameId": "2024020400", "date": "20241203" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2, "gameId": "2023020326", "date": "20231127" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 4, "gameId": "2023020128", "date": "20231029" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 4, "gameId": "2022020093", "date": "20221024" }, { "goals": 1, "sog": 2, "attempts": 4, "gameId": "2021020578", "date": "20220102" } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "window": "2021–22 through October21, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked attempts", "coverageNote": "Observed saved encounters only; missing is unavailable, not zero. Not independently established as complete career coverage." }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478406", "goalieName": "Mackenzie Blackwood", "opponent": "TBL", "games": 4, "availableGames": 4, "shotsAgainst": 99.0, "goalsAgainst": 15.0, "savePct": 0.8484848484848485, "gaa": 4.800426704595964, "gsax": -3.8269999999999995, "log": [ { "gameId": "2024020413", "date": "20241205", "goalieTeam": "SJS", "opponent": "TBL", "shotsAgainst": 23.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 2400.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.907 }, { "gameId": "2023021108", "date": "20240321", "goalieTeam": "SJS", "opponent": "TBL", "shotsAgainst": 21.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.592 }, { "gameId": "2023020106", "date": "20231026", "goalieTeam": "SJS", "opponent": "TBL", "shotsAgainst": 21.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 1649.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.962 }, { "gameId": "2021020264", "date": "20211120", "goalieTeam": "NJD", "opponent": "TBL", "shotsAgainst": 34.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.712 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "coverageNote": "Last five observed goalie/team regular-season appearances. Historical coverage is not independently established as career-complete." }, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 2.8672718358917337, "attemptProjection": 2.399767824739988, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261021", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 34.0, "sog": 21.0, "seconds": 7846.0, "expectedMinutes": 14.529629629629632, "projectedAttempts": 3.7777777777777786, "onNet": 0.48535033142206496, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0290266956001277, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9868443082842028 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 11.0, "sog": 5.0, "seconds": 2068.0, "expectedMinutes": 3.2489894288020995, "projectedAttempts": 1.0369115198304573, "onNet": 0.4309542558522443, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9649306914974484, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9896116972997503 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 2.058095535046208, "ppAdjusted": 0.46431318415854134, "other": 0.1111111111111111 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 2.633519830315861, "baseline": 2.1690140845070425, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 71.0, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 2.4477175319923337, "adjustedSOG": 2.413899067670517, "reductionPct": 1.381632638562258, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 2.058095535046208, "afterPlayerForm": 2.0275570292394196, "afterRecentDefense": 2.058095535046208, "afterRecentZones": 2.05377251473514, "afterDefenseAndZones": 2.05377251473514, "adjusted": 2.0232981549209086, "playerFactor": 0.9851617647058823, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.003420975712835, "newChartFactor": 0.9995724067953069, "playerRecentAttempts": 19.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 80.0, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.9134436274509805, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0338983050847457, "defenseRecentMinutes": 251.61666666666667, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.46431318415854134, "afterPlayerForm": 0.4431689105346356, "afterRecentDefense": 0.46431318415854134, "afterRecentZones": 0.46387057479755023, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.46387057479755023, "adjusted": 0.44274645708081356, "playerFactor": 0.9544611819235226, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.0652579388699872, "newChartFactor": 1.0633791635131407, "playerRecentAttempts": 3.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 13.766666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.6828087167070218, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.594204503506829, "defenseRecentMinutes": 15.05, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 2.413899067670517, "adjustedSOG": 2.3656210863171068, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.09392265193370165, "goalHistoryGoals": 17.0, "goalHistoryShots": 181.0, "goalExpected": 0.19858455931419527, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.19858455931419527, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.1801095615640893, "goalProbability": 0.1801095615640893, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05762782900251467, "modelSOG": 2.3656210863171068, "historyGames": 159, "seasonGames": { "2024": 79, "2025": 71, "2026": 9 }, "historyGoals": 22.0, "historyShots": 348.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.06321839080459771, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.061970497545204166, "goalieFactor": 1.0252999843886221, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 60.72668149834997, "btb": { "id": "8474590", "name": "John Carlson", "score": 60.72668149834997, "components": { "Goal model": 52.17391304347826, "SOG model": 88.40579710144928, "Unit attack": 100.0, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 36.01398601398601, "PP": 44.285714285714285, "Shot quality": 68.1159420289855, "Goalie": 88.02816901408451, "Team H2H": 40.23668639053254, "Goalie H2H": 54.92424242424242 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Incomplete current opposing units or 5v5 minute baselines; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Incomplete current opposing units or 5v5 minute baselines", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": true, "games": 8, "exactGames": 8, "individualGames": 0, "roleGames": 0, "exactMinutes": 99.46666666666667, "exactWeight": 0.6237458193979933, "individualWeight": 0, "venueGames": 3, "venueFallback": false, "shares": [ 0.39214520245398327, 0.3184801407969079, 0.21439259880671852, 0.07498205794239028 ], "units": [ { "unit": 2, "names": [ "Brett Kulak", "Sam Malinski" ], "share": 0.39214520245398327, "xGA60": 2.386620819090907 }, { "unit": 1, "names": [ "Devon Toews", "Cale Makar" ], "share": 0.3184801407969079, "xGA60": 2.232944179481916 }, { "unit": 3, "names": [ "Josh Manson", "Brent Burns" ], "share": 0.21439259880671852, "xGA60": 2.608622014683556 } ], "otherShare": 0.07498205794239028, "weightedXGA60": 2.3827084709934914, "score": 36.01398601398601 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 3.8004664991323667, "unitPlayers": [ "J.J. Moser", "John Carlson" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 3, "goalieH2HShots": 10, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 15 } }, { "id": "8484197", "name": "Oliver Moore", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "MTL", "position": "L", "currentGP": 9, "currentSOG": 1.4444444444444444, "priorSOG": 1.14, "currentTOI": 11.803703703703704, "currentFiveTOI": 10.805555555555555, "ppShare": 0.23235156615240768, "rate": 1.0926069052873844, "fifty": 1.1762931537714265, "inputs": { "Player": "Oliver Moore", "Player_ID": "8484197", "Team": "CHI", "Opponent": "MTL", "Position": "C", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.2156557890917097, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.3162165570593842, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 9, "Prior_GP": 50, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 7.403598971722365, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.0244988864142535, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 7.135777998017839, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 10.931388888888888, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 10.805555555555555, "Current_PP_Share": 0.23235156615240768, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.23315614302015972, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 497.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2139.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 6, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.173148148148148, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 1.203237732760686, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 1.2019890741606498, "Other_State_SOG": 0.04711111111111112, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9555676582468344, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.14, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 3", "ppUnit": "PP2 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-23", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:35:35.615148+00:00", "priorGP": 50.0, "currentTotalSOG": 13.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.9203703703703704, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.44 SOG/game in 9 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 9 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 23 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.233, "currentIXG": 0.137, "priorTOI": 12.878666666666666, "priorPPTOI": 1.0090000000000001, "deploymentChange": -1.074962962962962, "ppTOIChange": -0.08862962962962972, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020536", "date": "20251218", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 11.65 }, { "gameId": "2024021285", "date": "20250414", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 14.016666666666667 } ], "h2hGames": 2, "h2hAvailableGames": 2, "h2hSOG": 0.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "MTL", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 237.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 26.333333333333332, "mostAllowedRank": 20, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.983070773571598, "pkSogAllowed60": 45.93967517401392, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 38.666666666666664, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 76.0, "D": 64.0, "R": 52.0, "L": 45.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 8.444444444444445, "L": 5.0, "R": 5.777777777777778, "D": 7.111111111111111 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 25.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 3, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27.333333333333332, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 26.333333333333332, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.0, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8484170", "team": "MTL", "name": "Jacob Fowler", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-23T17:12:10.576Z", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-23", "games": 4, "savePct": 0.9, "gaa": 2.163895011019836, "gsax": 2.1389999999999993, "goalsAllowed": 9.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 11.139, "shotsAgainst": 90.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9828963086689823, "factor": 0.9828963086689823, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter for October 23; Daily Faceoff confirmation.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.11029248784024293, "goalHistoryGoals": 7.0, "goalHistoryShots": 80.0, "goalExpected": 0.1335974384493354, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.13131242909948332, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.1250577881883559, "goalProbability": 0.12305625115925321, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.20015370291026763, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 9, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.2113013412377582, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 7.403598971722365, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 10.805555555555555, "Current_PP_Share": 0.23235156615240768, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.173148148148148, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.2019890741606498, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.1111111111111111, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9711545151193198, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9819199317155711, "Position_Factor": 1.0025538171453592, "Input_GP": 9, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 497.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2139.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.0244988864142535, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 7.135777998017839, "Prior_5v5_Min": 11.225, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.23315614302015972, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9941897998708845, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.062091503267974, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.9679826305172341, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9623584577124213, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9819199317155711, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 6.41139804096171, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 0.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 0.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five saved meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. Dated 2024–2026 regular-season appearances.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020536", "date": "20251218", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 11.65 }, { "gameId": "2024021285", "date": "20250414", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 14.016666666666667 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Oliver Moore", "Frank Nazar", "Ryan Donato" ], "lineupSource": "NHL.com projected lineup", "isHome": true, "rosterPosition": "L", "projectedPosition": "L", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:35:35.615148+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/chicago-blackhawks/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-22T16:55:34.203Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 17, "priorAttempts": 78, "fitPct": -1.06724564942553, "index": 98.93275435057447, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 20.784313725490193, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.711511602468903, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 13 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 16.7420814479638, "opponentDeltaPct": -5.805766108288097, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 12 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 33.99698340874811, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.5231164238779513, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 25 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 15.26395173453997, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.4830868449991215, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 16 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 13.21266968325792, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.49406869911976514, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 12 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.365981626756792, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 10, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -1.06724564942553, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October23 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported unit only. Expected PP minutes retain measured current-season deployment; no guessed transfer.", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8484170", "goalieName": "Jacob Fowler", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8484197", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "window": "2021–22 through October21, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked attempts", "coverageNote": "Observed saved encounters only; missing is unavailable, not zero. Not independently established as complete career coverage." }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8484170", "goalieName": "Jacob Fowler", "opponent": "CHI", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "coverageNote": "Last five observed goalie/team regular-season appearances. Historical coverage is not independently established as career-complete." }, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.3942557213943396, "attemptProjection": 1.2798516400970688, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261021", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 20.0, "sog": 12.0, "seconds": 5835.0, "expectedMinutes": 10.805555555555555, "projectedAttempts": 2.2222222222222223, "onNet": 0.5227367645252426, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.916154770019487, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0295873524263528 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 1.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 497.0, "expectedMinutes": 1.2019890741606498, "projectedAttempts": 0.14510934496909256, "onNet": 0.5495191707256151, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9091960351585663, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0070808959552022 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.1894360757631142, "ppAdjusted": 0.03650649387147882, "other": 0.1111111111111111 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.3370536807457043, "baseline": 1.14, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 50.0, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.2582322084474225, "adjustedSOG": 1.2113013412377582, "reductionPct": 3.729905091809238, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.1894360757631142, "afterPlayerForm": 1.1894360757631142, "afterRecentDefense": 1.1122314260412578, "afterRecentZones": 1.1894360757631142, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.1122314260412578, "adjusted": 1.1122314260412578, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9350913838120104, "oldChartFactor": 0.9679826305172341, "newChartFactor": 0.9679826305172341, "playerRecentAttempts": 14.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 54.18333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.2563826514918486, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.6952186350633428, "defenseRecentMinutes": 244.7, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.03650649387147882, "afterPlayerForm": 0.03650649387147882, "afterRecentDefense": 0.03549303157722786, "afterRecentZones": 0.03650649387147882, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.03549303157722786, "adjusted": 0.03549303157722786, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9722388488519644, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 1.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 4.216666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.9644268774703555, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8240542632130013, "defenseRecentMinutes": 33.28333333333333, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.2113013412377582, "adjustedSOG": 1.2113013412377582, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.1, "goalHistoryGoals": 7.0, "goalHistoryShots": 70.0, "goalExpected": 0.10926069052873844, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.10926069052873844, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.10350332116038702, "goalProbability": 0.10350332116038702, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12852647811243728, "modelSOG": 1.2113013412377582, "historyGames": 68, "seasonGames": { "2024": 9, "2025": 50, "2026": 9 }, "historyGoals": 7.0, "historyShots": 80.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.0875, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.11029248784024293, "goalieFactor": 0.9828963086689823, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 41.02527720799307, "btb": { "id": "8484197", "name": "Oliver Moore", "score": 41.02527720799307, "components": { "Goal model": 46.3768115942029, "SOG model": 36.231884057971016, "Unit attack": 33.333333333333336, "Opposing lines": 47.348484848484844, "Opposing pairs": 41.608391608391614, "PP": 25.0, "Shot quality": 43.47826086956522, "Goalie": 37.32394366197183, "Team H2H": 43.84615384615385, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": true, "weightedXGA60": 2.5082524531109156, "games": 7, "exactGames": 2, "shares": [ 0.25531054286982013, 0.2763304501988148, 0.20605420549818587, 0.26230480143317914 ], "score": 47.348484848484844 }, "pair": { "available": true, "weightedXGA60": 2.5740922400877695, "games": 8, "exactGames": 2, "shares": [ 0.326846170914061, 0.24500676917825992, 0.32566668445482894, 0.10248037545285013 ], "score": 41.608391608391614 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.4935875161559746, "unitPlayers": [ "Oliver Moore", "Frank Nazar", "Ryan Donato" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 2, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 55 } }, { "id": "8476967", "name": "Brett Kulak", "team": "COL", "opponent": "TBL", "position": "D", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 0.8, "priorSOG": 1.144578313253012, "currentTOI": 18.259999999999998, "currentFiveTOI": 16.508333333333333, "ppShare": 0.009085009733939001, "rate": 0.9922859271218967, "fifty": 0.9056330575850662, "inputs": { "Player": "Brett Kulak", "Player_ID": "8476967", "Team": "COL", "Opponent": "TBL", "Position": "D", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 0.932058973117189, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 0.7936106329143857, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 10, "Prior_GP": 83, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.907622412922766, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.8733934757676436, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 16.65083333333333, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 16.508333333333333, "Current_PP_Share": 0.009085009733939001, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.024633431085043987, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 28.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3082.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 5, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.795185185185185, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.0659315719981982, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.043564304083447504, "Other_State_SOG": 0.04337349397590362, "Environment_Proxy": 0.8844868901771036, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.144578313253012, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 2", "ppUnit": "PP assignment pending", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-23", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:35:35.615148+00:00", "priorGP": 83.0, "currentTotalSOG": 8.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.04666666666666667, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.80 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 23 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.421, "currentIXG": 0.0421, "priorTOI": 18.960843373493976, "priorPPTOI": 0.13493975903614458, "deploymentChange": -0.7008433734939779, "ppTOIChange": -0.08827309236947792, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020726", "date": "20260113", "team": "PIT", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 25.933333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020322", "date": "20251120", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 17.633333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020921", "date": "20250225", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 23.266666666666666 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 1.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "TBL", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 218.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 24.22222222222222, "mostAllowedRank": 29, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.310572168589594, "pkSogAllowed60": 47.9002079002079, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 36.333333333333336, "positionUnassignedSOG": 1.0, "positionTotals": { "L": 36.0, "R": 49.0, "D": 66.0, "C": 66.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.333333333333333, "L": 4.0, "R": 5.444444444444445, "D": 7.333333333333333 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 24.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.25, "positionSourceDifference": 1.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 24.22222222222222, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.333333333333333, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8476883", "team": "TBL", "name": "Andrei Vasilevskiy", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-23T17:44:29.480Z", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-23", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.8975903614457832, "gaa": 2.4556616643929057, "gsax": 1.495000000000001, "goalsAllowed": 17.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 18.495, "shotsAgainst": 166.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9911791106382869, "factor": 0.9911791106382869, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter for October 23; Daily Faceoff confirmation.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.0407709320660367, "goalHistoryGoals": 8.0, "goalHistoryShots": 238.0, "goalExpected": 0.04055352848013213, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.0401958102921818, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.03974223800285875, "goalProbability": 0.03939867489054849, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.034356311231025644, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 0.994667681730885, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.907622412922766, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 16.508333333333333, "Current_PP_Share": 0.009085009733939001, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.795185185185185, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.043564304083447504, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9588832837562793, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0032616490671127, "Position_Factor": 1.0144938104754524, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 28.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3082.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.8733934757676436, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 16.98333333333333, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.024633431085043987, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9991571455328714, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.34640522875817, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.0289592091434299, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0280919462775102, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0032616490671127, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 2.8995512599240594, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five saved meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. Dated 2024–2026 regular-season appearances.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020726", "date": "20260113", "team": "PIT", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 25.933333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020322", "date": "20251120", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 17.633333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020921", "date": "20250225", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 23.266666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020453", "date": "20241210", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 21.483333333333334 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Brett Kulak", "Sam Malinski" ], "lineupSource": "NHL.com projected lineup", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:35:35.615148+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 15, "priorAttempts": 132, "fitPct": 0.9653069714476601, "index": 100.96530697144766, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 74.60606060606061, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.515281930842562, "currentAttempts": 11, "priorAttempts": 101 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 1.2121212121212122, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.609652563126957, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 2.1212121212121215, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.85621916135625, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 15.636363636363635, "opponentDeltaPct": -12.897287560223589, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 12 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 5.515151515151516, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.418201733515886, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.9090909090909092, "opponentDeltaPct": -11.722552252061064, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 0.9653069714476601, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October23 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported unit only. Expected PP minutes retain measured current-season deployment; no guessed transfer.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476883", "goalieName": "Andrei Vasilevskiy", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8476967", "goals": 0, "sog": 5, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 5, "recordedAttempts": 6, "log": [ { "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1, "gameId": "2025020726", "date": "20260113" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2, "gameId": "2025020322", "date": "20251120" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1, "gameId": "2024020921", "date": "20250225" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1, "gameId": "2024020453", "date": "20241210" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1, "gameId": "2022020725", "date": "20230119" } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "window": "2021–22 through October21, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked attempts", "coverageNote": "Observed saved encounters only; missing is unavailable, not zero. Not independently established as complete career coverage." }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476883", "goalieName": "Andrei Vasilevskiy", "opponent": "COL", "games": 5, "availableGames": 13, "shotsAgainst": 157.0, "goalsAgainst": 12.0, "savePct": 0.9235668789808917, "gaa": 2.4254674077817078, "gsax": 7.298, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020668", "date": "20260106", "goalieTeam": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "shotsAgainst": 33.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.223 }, { "gameId": "2025020209", "date": "20251104", "goalieTeam": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "shotsAgainst": 33.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3420.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.409 }, { "gameId": "2024020334", "date": "20241125", "goalieTeam": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "shotsAgainst": 25.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.459 }, { "gameId": "2024020157", "date": "20241030", "goalieTeam": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "shotsAgainst": 35.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.364 }, { "gameId": "2023020842", "date": "20240215", "goalieTeam": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "shotsAgainst": 31.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3591.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.843 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "coverageNote": "Last five observed goalie/team regular-season appearances. Historical coverage is not independently established as career-complete." }, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.8224735570220081, "attemptProjection": 0.9876376181953784, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261021", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 31.0, "sog": 8.0, "seconds": 9905.0, "expectedMinutes": 16.508333333333333, "projectedAttempts": 3.0999999999999996, "onNet": 0.34283244246238836, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9399951775173531, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9886177218479464 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 28.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.043564304083447504, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.425764192139738, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9635919869864824, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0126481883452998 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.9050555876086932, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.9050555876086932, "baseline": 1.144578313253012, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 83.0, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.0008646778664207, "adjustedSOG": 0.994667681730885, "reductionPct": 0.6191642359430705, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.9050555876086932, "afterPlayerForm": 0.9050555876086932, "afterRecentDefense": 0.9003862026714382, "afterRecentZones": 0.8993672984929719, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.8947272607161336, "adjusted": 0.8947272607161336, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9948407755267361, "oldChartFactor": 1.0289592091434299, "newChartFactor": 1.0147264902434223, "playerRecentAttempts": 19.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 84.93333333333334, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.191288550159518, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.975764559752153, "defenseRecentMinutes": 244.35, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.0, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.04528859527121, "defenseRecentMinutes": 23.966666666666665, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.994667681730885, "adjustedSOG": 0.994667681730885, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.009708737864077669, "goalHistoryGoals": 1.0, "goalHistoryShots": 103.0, "goalExpected": 0.009633843952639772, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.009633843952639772, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.00958758714080073, "goalProbability": 0.00958758714080073, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05780575038320405, "modelSOG": 0.994667681730885, "historyGames": 175, "seasonGames": { "2024": 82, "2025": 83, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 8.0, "historyShots": 238.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.03361344537815126, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.0407709320660367, "goalieFactor": 0.9911791106382869, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 28.76686868309927, "btb": { "id": "8476967", "name": "Brett Kulak", "score": 28.76686868309927, "components": { "Goal model": 4.3478260869565215, "SOG model": 18.840579710144926, "Unit attack": 63.63636363636363, "Opposing lines": 26.923076923076923, "Opposing pairs": 19.23076923076923, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 2.898550724637681, "Goalie": 11.971830985915492, "Team H2H": 46.48351648351648, "Goalie H2H": 48.243801652892564 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": true, "games": 8, "exactGames": 6, "individualGames": 2, "roleGames": 1, "exactMinutes": 55.016666666666666, "exactWeight": 0.47833647297493115, "individualWeight": 0.2777610592837797, "venueGames": 3, "venueFallback": false, "shares": [ 0.22030576638630836, 0.22272597152328777, 0.21080736060830263, 0.17090332632356653, 0.17525757515853457 ], "units": [ { "unit": 2, "names": [ "Gage Goncalves", "Brayden Point", "Jake Guentzel" ], "share": 0.22030576638630836, "xGA60": 2.0340078043220755 }, { "unit": 1, "names": [ "Brandon Hagel", "Anthony Cirelli", "Nikita Kucherov" ], "share": 0.22272597152328777, "xGA60": 1.9481706788671902 }, { "unit": 3, "names": [ "Ilya Mikheyev", "Zemgus Girgensons", "Pontus Holmberg" ], "share": 0.21080736060830263, "xGA60": 2.125408163982028 }, { "unit": 4, "names": [ "Jeffrey Viel", "Conor Geekie", "Dominic James" ], "share": 0.17090332632356653, "xGA60": 2.3268473115300212 } ], "otherShare": 0.17525757515853457, "weightedXGA60": 2.113238378623648, "score": 26.923076923076923 }, "pair": { "available": true, "games": 8, "exactGames": 6, "individualGames": 2, "roleGames": 1, "exactMinutes": 55.016666666666666, "exactWeight": 0.47833647297493115, "individualWeight": 0.2777610592837797, "venueGames": 3, "venueFallback": false, "shares": [ 0.3346065940191025, 0.32267372911278513, 0.2494180354279621, 0.09330164144015024 ], "units": [ { "unit": 1, "names": [ "J.J. Moser", "John Carlson" ], "share": 0.3346065940191025, "xGA60": 2.1330165084190638 }, { "unit": 2, "names": [ "Ryan McDonagh", "Erik Cernak" ], "share": 0.32267372911278513, "xGA60": 2.0098658998691765 }, { "unit": 3, "names": [ "Victor Hedman", "Max Crozier" ], "share": 0.2494180354279621, "xGA60": 2.8833997473734136 } ], "otherShare": 0.09330164144015024, "weightedXGA60": 2.2866570689389865, "score": 19.23076923076923 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 3.1702859656649403, "unitPlayers": [ "Brett Kulak", "Sam Malinski" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": 5, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 69 } }, { "id": "8482655", "name": "J.J. Moser", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "position": "D", "currentGP": 9, "currentSOG": 0.8888888888888888, "priorSOG": 1.4050632911392404, "currentTOI": 17.951851851851853, "currentFiveTOI": 15.02037037037037, "ppShare": 0.040190735694822885, "rate": 1.229317700589241, "fifty": 1.0894899487586087, "inputs": { "Player": "J.J. Moser", "Player_ID": "8482655", "Team": "TBL", "Opponent": "COL", "Position": "D", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.0794838474635715, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 0.9378281578626306, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 9, "Prior_GP": 79, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.1068918752311676, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.482770659497958, "Current_PP_SOG60": 30.508474576271187, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 15.952803563056728, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 15.02037037037037, "Current_PP_Share": 0.040190735694822885, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.01636671684452381, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 118.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2936.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 5, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.612685185185185, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.1524194014804988, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.18538721112120293, "Other_State_SOG": 0.04556962025316456, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9914667421548949, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.4050632911392404, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 1", "ppUnit": "PP assignment pending", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-23", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:35:35.615148+00:00", "priorGP": 79.0, "currentTotalSOG": 8.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.2185185185185185, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.89 SOG/game in 9 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 9 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 23 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.08, "currentIXG": 0.12000000000000001, "priorTOI": 21.571729957805907, "priorPPTOI": 0.08291139240506329, "deploymentChange": -3.6198781059540543, "ppTOIChange": 0.1356071261134552, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020668", "date": "20260106", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 24.1 }, { "gameId": "2025020209", "date": "20251104", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 19.0 }, { "gameId": "2024020334", "date": "20241125", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 22.133333333333333 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 0.6666666666666666, "opponentDefense": { "team": "COL", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 273.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.3, "mostAllowedRank": 16, "fiveSogAllowed60": 27.02393375298751, "pkSogAllowed60": 47.51429828420589, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 40.2, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 100.0, "R": 60.0, "L": 45.0, "D": 68.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.0, "L": 4.5, "R": 6.0, "D": 6.8 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 29.0, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.8, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.3, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.8, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8478406", "team": "COL", "name": "Mackenzie Blackwood", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-23T16:26:32.640Z", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-23", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.8888888888888888, "gaa": 2.897734132893307, "gsax": -2.4450000000000003, "goalsAllowed": 20.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 17.555, "shotsAgainst": 180.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0252999843886221, "factor": 1.0252999843886221, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter for October 23; Daily Faceoff confirmation.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.05531363404777394, "goalHistoryGoals": 9.0, "goalHistoryShots": 167.0, "goalExpected": 0.06289637305314995, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.06448765030949559, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.06095922142380647, "goalProbability": 0.06245230738560803, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.14930859618015602, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 9, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.137086256144857, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.1068918752311676, "Current_PP_SOG60": 30.508474576271187, "Current_5v5_Min": 15.02037037037037, "Current_PP_Share": 0.040190735694822885, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.612685185185185, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.18538721112120293, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0289555868427727, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9996701327073623, "Position_Factor": 0.9904286105353721, "Input_GP": 9, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 118.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2936.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.482770659497958, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 18.12848101265823, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.01636671684452381, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9628113879003559, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.34640522875817, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.0084946609708447, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.970990144219438, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9996701327073623, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 2.949610815239656, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 30.508474576271187, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five saved meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. Dated 2024–2026 regular-season appearances.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020668", "date": "20260106", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 24.1 }, { "gameId": "2025020209", "date": "20251104", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 19.0 }, { "gameId": "2024020334", "date": "20241125", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 22.133333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020157", "date": "20241030", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 24.866666666666667 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "J.J. Moser", "John Carlson" ], "lineupSource": "NHL.com projected lineup", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:35:35.615148+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 21, "priorAttempts": 162, "fitPct": 0.28315536569482447, "index": 100.28315536569482, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 64.55026455026456, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.604370751696635, "currentAttempts": 13, "priorAttempts": 111 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 15.626102292768959, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.2025641924569896, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 17 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 5.079365079365079, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.26262818174886604, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 9 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 13.26278659611993, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.0950116912032684, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 19 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.9876543209876543, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.044692588641311204, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.49382716049382713, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.6551158457307906, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "Prior-season shot locations are unavailable in the saved files for this player and strength. The 60/40 zone comparison cannot be calculated; current sample: 1 attempts.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 0.28315536569482447, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October23 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported unit only. Expected PP minutes retain measured current-season deployment; no guessed transfer.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478406", "goalieName": "Mackenzie Blackwood", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8482655", "goals": 0, "sog": 6, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 3, "recordedAttempts": 6, "log": [ { "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2, "gameId": "2024020413", "date": "20241205" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2, "gameId": "2023021231", "date": "20240407" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2, "gameId": "2023020509", "date": "20231221" } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "window": "2021–22 through October21, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked attempts", "coverageNote": "Observed saved encounters only; missing is unavailable, not zero. Not independently established as complete career coverage." }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478406", "goalieName": "Mackenzie Blackwood", "opponent": "TBL", "games": 4, "availableGames": 4, "shotsAgainst": 99.0, "goalsAgainst": 15.0, "savePct": 0.8484848484848485, "gaa": 4.800426704595964, "gsax": -3.8269999999999995, "log": [ { "gameId": "2024020413", "date": "20241205", "goalieTeam": "SJS", "opponent": "TBL", "shotsAgainst": 23.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 2400.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.907 }, { "gameId": "2023021108", "date": "20240321", "goalieTeam": "SJS", "opponent": "TBL", "shotsAgainst": 21.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.592 }, { "gameId": "2023020106", "date": "20231026", "goalieTeam": "SJS", "opponent": "TBL", "shotsAgainst": 21.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 1649.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.962 }, { "gameId": "2021020264", "date": "20211120", "goalieTeam": "NJD", "opponent": "TBL", "shotsAgainst": 34.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.712 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "coverageNote": "Last five observed goalie/team regular-season appearances. Historical coverage is not independently established as career-complete." }, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.8494481454000917, "attemptProjection": 1.1953134955865787, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261021", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 31.0, "sog": 7.0, "seconds": 8111.0, "expectedMinutes": 15.02037037037037, "projectedAttempts": 3.4444444444444446, "onNet": 0.3304867634500427, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0290266956001277, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9868443082842028 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 1.0, "sog": 1.0, "seconds": 118.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.18538721112120293, "projectedAttempts": 0.09426468362095064, "onNet": 0.43702371778405685, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9649306914974484, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9896116972997503 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.9555949044624585, "ppAdjusted": 0.06678591603087665, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.0223808204933351, "baseline": 1.4050632911392404, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 79.0, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.1754538087516972, "adjustedSOG": 1.1602920981069968, "reductionPct": 1.289860182664404, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.9555949044624585, "afterPlayerForm": 0.9303253867212908, "afterRecentDefense": 0.9555949044624585, "afterRecentZones": 0.9555949044624585, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.9555949044624585, "adjusted": 0.9303253867212908, "playerFactor": 0.9735562447820059, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.0084946609708447, "newChartFactor": 1.0084946609708447, "playerRecentAttempts": 16.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 82.31666666666666, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.8476053007987773, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0338983050847457, "defenseRecentMinutes": 251.61666666666667, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.06678591603087665, "afterPlayerForm": 0.06678591603087665, "afterRecentDefense": 0.06678591603087665, "afterRecentZones": 0.06678591603087665, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.06678591603087665, "adjusted": 0.06678591603087665, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 1.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 1.8, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.0925925925925926, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.594204503506829, "defenseRecentMinutes": 15.05, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.1602920981069968, "adjustedSOG": 1.137086256144857, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.058823529411764705, "goalHistoryGoals": 7.0, "goalHistoryShots": 119.0, "goalExpected": 0.07231280591701418, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.07231280591701418, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.06976013423863467, "goalProbability": 0.06976013423863467, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.057687402907556404, "modelSOG": 1.137086256144857, "historyGames": 142, "seasonGames": { "2024": 54, "2025": 79, "2026": 9 }, "historyGoals": 9.0, "historyShots": 167.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.05389221556886228, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.05531363404777394, "goalieFactor": 1.0252999843886221, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 47.27163612566246, "btb": { "id": "8482655", "name": "J.J. Moser", "score": 47.27163612566246, "components": { "Goal model": 15.942028985507246, "SOG model": 28.985507246376812, "Unit attack": 100.0, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 36.01398601398601, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 31.884057971014492, "Goalie": 88.02816901408451, "Team H2H": 44.065934065934066, "Goalie H2H": 47.32142857142857 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Incomplete current opposing units or 5v5 minute baselines; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Incomplete current opposing units or 5v5 minute baselines", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": true, "games": 8, "exactGames": 8, "individualGames": 0, "roleGames": 0, "exactMinutes": 99.46666666666667, "exactWeight": 0.6237458193979933, "individualWeight": 0, "venueGames": 3, "venueFallback": false, "shares": [ 0.39214520245398327, 0.3184801407969079, 0.21439259880671852, 0.07498205794239028 ], "units": [ { "unit": 2, "names": [ "Brett Kulak", "Sam Malinski" ], "share": 0.39214520245398327, "xGA60": 2.386620819090907 }, { "unit": 1, "names": [ "Devon Toews", "Cale Makar" ], "share": 0.3184801407969079, "xGA60": 2.232944179481916 }, { "unit": 3, "names": [ "Josh Manson", "Brent Burns" ], "share": 0.21439259880671852, "xGA60": 2.608622014683556 } ], "otherShare": 0.07498205794239028, "weightedXGA60": 2.3827084709934914, "score": 36.01398601398601 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 3.8004664991323667, "unitPlayers": [ "J.J. Moser", "John Carlson" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": 6, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 38 } }, { "id": "8477987", "name": "Ryan Donato", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "MTL", "position": "R", "currentGP": 9, "currentSOG": 1.2222222222222223, "priorSOG": 1.5061728395061729, "currentTOI": 11.296296296296298, "currentFiveTOI": 10.098148148148148, "ppShare": 0.2244039270687237, "rate": 1.299959389831548, "fifty": 1.2177059798195171, "inputs": { "Player": "Ryan Donato", "Player_ID": "8477987", "Team": "CHI", "Opponent": "MTL", "Position": "C", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.4166906947201114, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.297839919594668, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 9, "Prior_GP": 81, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 6.601870529983495, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.107522596483397, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 12.878223282158295, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 10.940987654320988, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 10.098148148148148, "Current_PP_Share": 0.2244039270687237, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.31899011030810187, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 480.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2139.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 6, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.173148148148148, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 1.3076672613522973, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 1.16087475975274, "Other_State_SOG": 0.1111111111111111, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9555676582468344, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.5061728395061729, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 3", "ppUnit": "PP2 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-23", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:35:35.615148+00:00", "priorGP": 81.0, "currentTotalSOG": 11.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.8888888888888888, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.22 SOG/game in 9 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 9 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 23 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.311, "currentIXG": 0.14566666666666667, "priorTOI": 14.729629629629628, "priorPPTOI": 1.3804526748971193, "deploymentChange": -3.43333333333333, "ppTOIChange": -0.4915637860082305, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020536", "date": "20251218", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 13.566666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020031", "date": "20251011", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "home", "sog": 6.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 13.316666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024021285", "date": "20250414", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 18.55 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 3.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "MTL", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 237.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 26.333333333333332, "mostAllowedRank": 20, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.983070773571598, "pkSogAllowed60": 45.93967517401392, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 38.666666666666664, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 76.0, "D": 64.0, "R": 52.0, "L": 45.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 8.444444444444445, "L": 5.0, "R": 5.777777777777778, "D": 7.111111111111111 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 25.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 3, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27.333333333333332, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 26.333333333333332, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.777777777777778, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8484170", "team": "MTL", "name": "Jacob Fowler", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-23T17:12:10.576Z", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-23", "games": 4, "savePct": 0.9, "gaa": 2.163895011019836, "gsax": 2.1389999999999993, "goalsAllowed": 9.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 11.139, "shotsAgainst": 90.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9828963086689823, "factor": 0.9828963086689823, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter for October 23; Daily Faceoff confirmation.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.14660964854128533, "goalHistoryGoals": 48.0, "goalHistoryShots": 315.0, "goalExpected": 0.20637488036126111, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.20284510810908638, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.186471956575736, "goalProbability": 0.1835953139016896, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.28766426740464146, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 9, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.4076486944387283, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 6.601870529983495, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 10.098148148148148, "Current_PP_Share": 0.2244039270687237, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.173148148148148, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.16087475975274, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.1111111111111111, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9711545151193198, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9819199317155711, "Position_Factor": 1.013054138770874, "Input_GP": 9, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 480.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2139.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.107522596483397, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 12.878223282158295, "Prior_5v5_Min": 12.90761316872428, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.31899011030810187, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0348001150417026, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.382352941176471, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.9815739558442955, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.25, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0157328424296161, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.15, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 7.2090112640801, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 3.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 3.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five saved meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. Dated 2024–2026 regular-season appearances.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020536", "date": "20251218", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 13.566666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020031", "date": "20251011", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "home", "sog": 6.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 13.316666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024021285", "date": "20250414", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 18.55 }, { "gameId": "2024020616", "date": "20250103", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 14.666666666666666 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Oliver Moore", "Frank Nazar", "Ryan Donato" ], "lineupSource": "NHL.com projected lineup", "isHome": true, "rosterPosition": "R", "projectedPosition": "R", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:35:35.615148+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/chicago-blackhawks/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-22T16:55:34.203Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 20, "priorAttempts": 164, "fitPct": -0.6142014718568163, "index": 99.38579852814318, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 9.585365853658537, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.711511602468903, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 27 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 15.097560975609756, "opponentDeltaPct": -5.805766108288097, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 25 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 41.46341463414634, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.5231164238779513, "currentAttempts": 10, "priorAttempts": 47 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 17.609756097560975, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.4830868449991215, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 23 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 10.560975609756097, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.49406869911976514, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 31 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 5.682926829268293, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.365981626756792, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 11 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 35, "fitPct": 13.371726779858363, "index": 113.37172677985836, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 2.2857142857142856, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.8191755597579373, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 6.857142857142858, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.365371878175409, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 12.571428571428573, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.116979926964163, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 11 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 4.571428571428571, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.921488030021976, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 73.71428571428571, "opponentDeltaPct": 19.17564972004449, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 12 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 88.51112253515706, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -0.6142014718568163, "zonePPFit": 13.371726779858363, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October23 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported unit only. Expected PP minutes retain measured current-season deployment; no guessed transfer.", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8484170", "goalieName": "Jacob Fowler", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8477987", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "window": "2021–22 through October21, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked attempts", "coverageNote": "Observed saved encounters only; missing is unavailable, not zero. Not independently established as complete career coverage." }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8484170", "goalieName": "Jacob Fowler", "opponent": "CHI", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "coverageNote": "Last five observed goalie/team regular-season appearances. Historical coverage is not independently established as career-complete." }, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.2397031582551292, "attemptProjection": 1.4516819448223428, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261021", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 27.0, "sog": 10.0, "seconds": 5453.0, "expectedMinutes": 10.098148148148148, "projectedAttempts": 3.0, "onNet": 0.4508379059765683, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.916154770019487, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0295873524263528 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 1.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 480.0, "expectedMinutes": 1.16087475975274, "projectedAttempts": 0.1451093449690925, "onNet": 0.48768225238813473, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9091960351585663, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0070808959552022 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.2021829908257162, "ppAdjusted": 0.03239844960190856, "other": 0.1111111111111111 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.3456925515387361, "baseline": 1.5061728395061729, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 81.0, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.409884666725711, "adjustedSOG": 1.4076486944387283, "reductionPct": 0.15859256716193038, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.2021829908257162, "afterPlayerForm": 1.2021829908257162, "afterRecentDefense": 1.2021829908257162, "afterRecentZones": 1.201390730384684, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.201390730384684, "adjusted": 1.201390730384684, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.9815739558442955, "newChartFactor": 0.9801958454506758, "playerRecentAttempts": 16.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 51.78333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.0400410065682033, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0223803456813865, "defenseRecentMinutes": 244.7, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.03239844960190856, "afterPlayerForm": 0.030305402421872445, "afterRecentDefense": 0.03149903134554796, "afterRecentZones": 0.03239844960190856, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.03149903134554796, "adjusted": 0.029464089564636798, "playerFactor": 0.9353966870095902, "defenseFactor": 0.9722388488519644, "oldChartFactor": 1.25, "newChartFactor": 1.25, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 4.116666666666666, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.0, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8240542632130013, "defenseRecentMinutes": 33.28333333333333, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.4076486944387283, "adjustedSOG": 1.4076486944387283, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.12781954887218044, "goalHistoryGoals": 17.0, "goalHistoryShots": 133.0, "goalExpected": 0.16616022276042341, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.16616022276042341, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.1530894710246261, "goalProbability": 0.1530894710246261, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12843004144633413, "modelSOG": 1.4076486944387283, "historyGames": 170, "seasonGames": { "2024": 80, "2025": 81, "2026": 9 }, "historyGoals": 48.0, "historyShots": 315.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.1523809523809524, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.14660964854128533, "goalieFactor": 0.9828963086689823, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 48.20078286175959, "btb": { "id": "8477987", "name": "Ryan Donato", "score": 48.20078286175959, "components": { "Goal model": 68.1159420289855, "SOG model": 47.82608695652174, "Unit attack": 33.333333333333336, "Opposing lines": 47.348484848484844, "Opposing pairs": 41.608391608391614, "PP": 25.0, "Shot quality": 47.82608695652174, "Goalie": 37.32394366197183, "Team H2H": 55.934065934065934, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": true, "weightedXGA60": 2.5082524531109156, "games": 7, "exactGames": 2, "shares": [ 0.25531054286982013, 0.2763304501988148, 0.20605420549818587, 0.26230480143317914 ], "score": 47.348484848484844 }, "pair": { "available": true, "weightedXGA60": 2.5740922400877695, "games": 8, "exactGames": 2, "shares": [ 0.326846170914061, 0.24500676917825992, 0.32566668445482894, 0.10248037545285013 ], "score": 41.608391608391614 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.4935875161559746, "unitPlayers": [ "Oliver Moore", "Frank Nazar", "Ryan Donato" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 37 } }, { "id": "8478010", "name": "Brayden Point", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "position": "C", "currentGP": 9, "currentSOG": 1.8888888888888888, "priorSOG": 2.0634920634920637, "currentTOI": 18.925925925925927, "currentFiveTOI": 13.429629629629629, "ppShare": 0.747275204359673, "rate": 1.9542579884283409, "fifty": 1.8911175963397733, "inputs": { "Player": "Brayden Point", "Player_ID": "8478010", "Team": "TBL", "Opponent": "COL", "Position": "C", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.877371415435266, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.8068991768805391, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 9, "Prior_GP": 63, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.956977385548814, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.35776411921605, "Current_PP_SOG60": 4.922515952597995, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 10.582010582010582, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 13.506931216931214, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 13.429629629629629, "Current_PP_Share": 0.747275204359673, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.7106403466538277, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2194.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2936.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 5, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.612685185185185, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 3.3962497447857594, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 3.4469452644060956, "Other_State_SOG": 0.16507936507936508, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9914667421548949, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 2.0634920634920637, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 2", "ppUnit": "PP1 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-23", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:35:35.615148+00:00", "priorGP": 63.0, "currentTotalSOG": 17.0, "currentPPTOI": 4.062962962962963, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.89 SOG/game in 9 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 9 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 23 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 3.294, "currentIXG": 0.366, "priorTOI": 18.25793650793651, "priorPPTOI": 3.6, "deploymentChange": 0.6679894179894177, "ppTOIChange": 0.46296296296296324, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020668", "date": "20260106", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 16.833333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2025020209", "date": "20251104", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 1.0, "toi": 18.916666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2024020334", "date": "20241125", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "toi": 15.016666666666667 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 2.6666666666666665, "opponentDefense": { "team": "COL", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 273.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.3, "mostAllowedRank": 16, "fiveSogAllowed60": 27.02393375298751, "pkSogAllowed60": 47.51429828420589, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 40.2, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 100.0, "R": 60.0, "L": 45.0, "D": 68.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.0, "L": 4.5, "R": 6.0, "D": 6.8 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 29.0, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.8, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.3, "oppPosSogAllowed": 10.0, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8478406", "team": "COL", "name": "Mackenzie Blackwood", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-23T16:26:32.640Z", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-23", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.8888888888888888, "gaa": 2.897734132893307, "gsax": -2.4450000000000003, "goalsAllowed": 20.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 17.555, "shotsAgainst": 180.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0252999843886221, "factor": 1.0252999843886221, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter for October 23; Daily Faceoff confirmation.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.1689563250650486, "goalHistoryGoals": 61.0, "goalHistoryShots": 337.0, "goalExpected": 0.3351431427199587, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.34362225899872745, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.2847643017585795, "goalProbability": 0.29080322984308865, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.6038928084509176, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 9, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.9836081460160062, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.956977385548814, "Current_PP_SOG60": 4.922515952597995, "Current_5v5_Min": 13.429629629629629, "Current_PP_Share": 0.747275204359673, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.612685185185185, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 3.4469452644060956, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.2222222222222222, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0289555868427727, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9996701327073623, "Position_Factor": 1.0071306809533955, "Input_GP": 9, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2194.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2936.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.35776411921605, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 10.582010582010582, "Prior_5v5_Min": 13.687301587301587, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.7106403466538277, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0297783933518005, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.437908496732026, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.9778161541548276, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.9757528113043267, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.006933948218995, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9754309423661781, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 6.153846153846154, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 5.2605942523136875, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five saved meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. Dated 2024–2026 regular-season appearances.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020668", "date": "20260106", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 16.833333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2025020209", "date": "20251104", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 1.0, "toi": 18.916666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2024020334", "date": "20241125", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "toi": 15.016666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020157", "date": "20241030", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 18.166666666666668 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Gage Goncalves", "Brayden Point", "Jake Guentzel" ], "lineupSource": "NHL.com projected lineup", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "rosterPosition": "C", "projectedPosition": "C", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:35:35.615148+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/tampa-bay-lightning/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-22T18:13:31.663Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 26, "priorAttempts": 106, "fitPct": -0.7394615281724128, "index": 99.26053847182759, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 13.004354136429608, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.604370751696635, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 10 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 29.44847605224964, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.2025641924569896, "currentAttempts": 9, "priorAttempts": 23 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 36.57474600870827, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.26262818174886604, "currentAttempts": 8, "priorAttempts": 48 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 7.634252539912917, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.0950116912032684, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 8 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 11.828737300435414, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.044692588641311204, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 13 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 1.509433962264151, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.6551158457307906, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 63, "fitPct": -0.8082396231891096, "index": 99.19176037681089, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 0.6349206349206349, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.125139957052596, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 47.3015873015873, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.208159137665604, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 34 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 34.285714285714285, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.03906538797926373, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 27 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 9.206349206349207, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.5428724091186723, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 8.571428571428571, "opponentDeltaPct": 15.136821787266058, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -37.289476773404765, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -0.7394615281724128, "zonePPFit": -0.8082396231891096, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October23 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported unit only. Expected PP minutes retain measured current-season deployment; no guessed transfer.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478406", "goalieName": "Mackenzie Blackwood", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8478010", "goals": 3, "sog": 7, "shootingPct": 0.42857142857142855, "gamesWithAttempts": 4, "recordedAttempts": 12, "log": [ { "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1, "gameId": "2024020413", "date": "20241205" }, { "goals": 2, "sog": 2, "attempts": 4, "gameId": "2023021108", "date": "20240321" }, { "goals": 1, "sog": 3, "attempts": 4, "gameId": "2023020106", "date": "20231026" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 3, "gameId": "2021020264", "date": "20211120" } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "window": "2021–22 through October21, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked attempts", "coverageNote": "Observed saved encounters only; missing is unavailable, not zero. Not independently established as complete career coverage." }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478406", "goalieName": "Mackenzie Blackwood", "opponent": "TBL", "games": 4, "availableGames": 4, "shotsAgainst": 99.0, "goalsAgainst": 15.0, "savePct": 0.8484848484848485, "gaa": 4.800426704595964, "gsax": -3.8269999999999995, "log": [ { "gameId": "2024020413", "date": "20241205", "goalieTeam": "SJS", "opponent": "TBL", "shotsAgainst": 23.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 2400.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.907 }, { "gameId": "2023021108", "date": "20240321", "goalieTeam": "SJS", "opponent": "TBL", "shotsAgainst": 21.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.592 }, { "gameId": "2023020106", "date": "20231026", "goalieTeam": "SJS", "opponent": "TBL", "shotsAgainst": 21.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 1649.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.962 }, { "gameId": "2021020264", "date": "20211120", "goalieTeam": "NJD", "opponent": "TBL", "shotsAgainst": 34.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.712 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "coverageNote": "Last five observed goalie/team regular-season appearances. Historical coverage is not independently established as career-complete." }, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.8406468873762494, "attemptProjection": 2.1980735512409817, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261021", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 31.0, "sog": 12.0, "seconds": 7252.0, "expectedMinutes": 13.429629629629629, "projectedAttempts": 3.4444444444444438, "onNet": 0.460276346201204, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0290266956001277, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9868443082842028 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 8.0, "sog": 3.0, "seconds": 2194.0, "expectedMinutes": 3.4469452644060956, "projectedAttempts": 0.7541174689676052, "onNet": 0.5081135902636917, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9649306914974484, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9896116972997503 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.4762656613721847, "ppAdjusted": 0.3208723357142085, "other": 0.2222222222222222 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 2.0193602193086155, "baseline": 2.0634920634920637, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 63.0, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 2.037012956981995, "adjustedSOG": 2.024089944914292, "reductionPct": 0.6344099100306755, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.4762656613721847, "afterPlayerForm": 1.4762656613721847, "afterRecentDefense": 1.4762656613721847, "afterRecentZones": 1.475902808594714, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.475902808594714, "adjusted": 1.475902808594714, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.9778161541548276, "newChartFactor": 0.9772876140633667, "playerRecentAttempts": 20.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 70.76666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.101909956999377, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0595533498759306, "defenseRecentMinutes": 251.61666666666667, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.3208723357142085, "afterPlayerForm": 0.2996968350455083, "afterRecentDefense": 0.3208723357142085, "afterRecentZones": 0.3208723357142085, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.3208723357142085, "adjusted": 0.2996968350455083, "playerFactor": 0.9340064620355413, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.9757528113043267, "newChartFactor": 0.9757528113043267, "playerRecentAttempts": 2.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 15.95, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.5731452455590388, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.594204503506829, "defenseRecentMinutes": 15.05, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 2.024089944914292, "adjustedSOG": 1.9836081460160062, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.1292517006802721, "goalHistoryGoals": 19.0, "goalHistoryShots": 147.0, "goalExpected": 0.2525911685723706, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.2525911685723706, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.2232146088041453, "goalProbability": 0.2232146088041453, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12833914053426249, "modelSOG": 1.9836081460160062, "historyGames": 149, "seasonGames": { "2024": 77, "2025": 63, "2026": 9 }, "historyGoals": 61.0, "historyShots": 337.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.18100890207715134, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.1689563250650486, "goalieFactor": 1.0252999843886221, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 73.26941532967736, "btb": { "id": "8478010", "name": "Brayden Point", "score": 73.26941532967736, "components": { "Goal model": 88.40579710144928, "SOG model": 76.81159420289855, "Unit attack": 93.33333333333333, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 55.35714285714286, "Shot quality": 89.85507246376811, "Goalie": 88.02816901408451, "Team H2H": 57.252747252747255, "Goalie H2H": 55.02392344497608 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 3.347857195742634, "unitPlayers": [ "Gage Goncalves", "Brayden Point", "Jake Guentzel" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": 7, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 4 } }, { "id": "8480039", "name": "Martin Necas", "team": "COL", "opponent": "TBL", "position": "R", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 2.3, "priorSOG": 2.641025641025641, "currentTOI": 20.401666666666667, "currentFiveTOI": 15.933333333333334, "ppShare": 0.6382219338092148, "rate": 2.224484264542341, "fifty": 2.14841797501223, "inputs": { "Player": "Martin Necas", "Player_ID": "8480039", "Team": "COL", "Opponent": "TBL", "Position": "C", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 2.309096682129227, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 2.445815773311318, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 10, "Prior_GP": 78, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.648535564853557, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.198363035964382, "Current_PP_SOG60": 10.98118962887646, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 11.158465710964743, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 16.14224358974359, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 15.933333333333334, "Current_PP_Share": 0.6382219338092148, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.7047339085645536, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1967.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3082.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 5, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.795185185185185, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 3.1560735326574503, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 3.0603923618621867, "Other_State_SOG": 0.1930769230769231, "Environment_Proxy": 0.8844868901771036, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 2.641025641025641, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 1", "ppUnit": "PP2 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-23", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:35:35.615148+00:00", "priorGP": 78.0, "currentTotalSOG": 23.0, "currentPPTOI": 3.2783333333333333, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.30 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 23 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 2.685, "currentIXG": 0.2685, "priorTOI": 21.498076923076923, "priorPPTOI": 3.8604700854700855, "deploymentChange": -1.0964102564102554, "ppTOIChange": -0.5821367521367522, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020668", "date": "20260106", "team": "COL", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 21.9 }, { "gameId": "2025020209", "date": "20251104", "team": "COL", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 21.033333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2024020029", "date": "20250107", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 15.916666666666666 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 2.6666666666666665, "opponentDefense": { "team": "TBL", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 218.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 24.22222222222222, "mostAllowedRank": 29, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.310572168589594, "pkSogAllowed60": 47.9002079002079, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 36.333333333333336, "positionUnassignedSOG": 1.0, "positionTotals": { "L": 36.0, "R": 49.0, "D": 66.0, "C": 66.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.333333333333333, "L": 4.0, "R": 5.444444444444445, "D": 7.333333333333333 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 24.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.25, "positionSourceDifference": 1.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 24.22222222222222, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.444444444444445, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8476883", "team": "TBL", "name": "Andrei Vasilevskiy", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-23T17:44:29.480Z", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-23", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.8975903614457832, "gaa": 2.4556616643929057, "gsax": 1.495000000000001, "goalsAllowed": 17.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 18.495, "shotsAgainst": 166.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9911791106382869, "factor": 0.9911791106382869, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter for October 23; Daily Faceoff confirmation.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.1583857275118861, "goalHistoryGoals": 70.0, "goalHistoryShots": 423.0, "goalExpected": 0.3473173903082758, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.34425374203496756, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.29341896930645783, "goalProbability": 0.2912509341990684, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.21680351073894433, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 2.1928578778173766, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.648535564853557, "Current_PP_SOG60": 10.98118962887646, "Current_5v5_Min": 15.933333333333334, "Current_PP_Share": 0.6382219338092148, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.795185185185185, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 3.0603923618621867, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.2, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9588832837562793, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0032616490671127, "Position_Factor": 0.985038993166415, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1967.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3082.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.198363035964382, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 11.158465710964743, "Prior_5v5_Min": 16.629700854700854, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.7047339085645536, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.005464480874317, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.382352941176471, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.8919766477812311, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.8239714073245059, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.896850837113369, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.85, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.088339222614841, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 11.1340206185567, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 3.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five saved meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. Dated 2024–2026 regular-season appearances.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020668", "date": "20260106", "team": "COL", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 21.9 }, { "gameId": "2025020209", "date": "20251104", "team": "COL", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 21.033333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2024020029", "date": "20250107", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 15.916666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020020", "date": "20241011", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 18.816666666666666 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Artturi Lehkonen", "Nathan MacKinnon", "Martin Necas" ], "lineupSource": "NHL.com projected lineup", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "rosterPosition": "C", "projectedPosition": "R", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:35:35.615148+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/colorado-avalanche/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-22T17:33:02.593Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 21, "priorAttempts": 193, "fitPct": -3.600778407292296, "index": 96.3992215927077, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 22.783123612139157, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.515281930842562, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 41 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 21.376757957068836, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.609652563126957, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 48 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 20.75499629903775, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.85621916135625, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 45 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 16.19541080680977, "opponentDeltaPct": -12.897287560223589, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 23 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 15.618060695780903, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.418201733515886, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 34 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 3.2716506291635827, "opponentDeltaPct": -11.722552252061064, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 2 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 8, "priorAttempts": 83, "fitPct": -5.867619755849802, "index": 94.1323802441502, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 7.228915662650602, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.0484005739127014, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 15 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 12.319277108433734, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.8060162233483652, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 10 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 16.656626506024097, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.6036826641455946, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 19 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 43.975903614457835, "opponentDeltaPct": -15.514716416172803, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 29 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 19.819277108433734, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.241804509586572, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 10 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 40.87182317476231, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -3.600778407292296, "zonePPFit": -5.867619755849802, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October23 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported unit only. Expected PP minutes retain measured current-season deployment; no guessed transfer.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476883", "goalieName": "Andrei Vasilevskiy", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8480039", "goals": 3, "sog": 22, "shootingPct": 0.13636363636363635, "gamesWithAttempts": 10, "recordedAttempts": 33, "log": [ { "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 5, "gameId": "2025020668", "date": "20260106" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 4, "gameId": "2025020209", "date": "20251104" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 7, "gameId": "2024020029", "date": "20250107" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 2, "gameId": "2024020020", "date": "20241011" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1, "gameId": "2023020303", "date": "20231124" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 3, "gameId": "2022021179", "date": "20230328" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2, "gameId": "2022021001", "date": "20230305" }, { "goals": 1, "sog": 4, "attempts": 4, "gameId": "2022020162", "date": "20221103" }, { "goals": 1, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1, "gameId": "2021021009", "date": "20220322" }, { "goals": 1, "sog": 3, "attempts": 4, "gameId": "2021020185", "date": "20211109" } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "window": "2021–22 through October21, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked attempts", "coverageNote": "Observed saved encounters only; missing is unavailable, not zero. Not independently established as complete career coverage." }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476883", "goalieName": "Andrei Vasilevskiy", "opponent": "COL", "games": 5, "availableGames": 13, "shotsAgainst": 157.0, "goalsAgainst": 12.0, "savePct": 0.9235668789808917, "gaa": 2.4254674077817078, "gsax": 7.298, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020668", "date": "20260106", "goalieTeam": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "shotsAgainst": 33.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.223 }, { "gameId": "2025020209", "date": "20251104", "goalieTeam": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "shotsAgainst": 33.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3420.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.409 }, { "gameId": "2024020334", "date": "20241125", "goalieTeam": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "shotsAgainst": 25.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.459 }, { "gameId": "2024020157", "date": "20241030", "goalieTeam": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "shotsAgainst": 35.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.364 }, { "gameId": "2023020842", "date": "20240215", "goalieTeam": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "shotsAgainst": 31.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3591.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.843 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "coverageNote": "Last five observed goalie/team regular-season appearances. Historical coverage is not independently established as career-complete." }, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 2.0213718645820156, "attemptProjection": 2.1541293694339436, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261021", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 28.0, "sog": 15.0, "seconds": 9560.0, "expectedMinutes": 15.933333333333334, "projectedAttempts": 2.8000000000000003, "onNet": 0.5164408210550965, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9399951775173531, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9886177218479464 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 13.0, "sog": 6.0, "seconds": 1967.0, "expectedMinutes": 3.0603923618621867, "projectedAttempts": 1.2135770423246088, "onNet": 0.5154061624649859, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9635919869864824, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0126481883452998 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.3445349939270845, "ppAdjusted": 0.5432156230808949, "other": 0.2 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 2.0877506170079796, "baseline": 2.641025641025641, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 78.0, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 2.309060626615044, "adjustedSOG": 2.1928578778173766, "reductionPct": 5.032468505082699, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.3445349939270845, "afterPlayerForm": 1.2693598315659171, "afterRecentDefense": 1.26872977154745, "afterRecentZones": 1.3445349939270845, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.26872977154745, "adjusted": 1.1977930038178486, "playerFactor": 0.9440883556763385, "defenseFactor": 0.9394742011803996, "oldChartFactor": 0.8919766477812311, "newChartFactor": 0.8919766477812311, "playerRecentAttempts": 10.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 83.68333333333334, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.6800011380772185, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.7156802561417446, "defenseRecentMinutes": 244.35, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.5432156230808949, "afterPlayerForm": 0.4962863651940183, "afterRecentDefense": 0.5432156230808949, "afterRecentZones": 0.5432156230808949, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.5432156230808949, "adjusted": 0.4962863651940183, "playerFactor": 0.9136084164503347, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.8239714073245059, "newChartFactor": 0.8168047101927679, "playerRecentAttempts": 2.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 13.15, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.3835429462805888, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.04528859527121, "defenseRecentMinutes": 23.966666666666665, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 2.1928578778173766, "adjustedSOG": 2.1928578778173766, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.18777292576419213, "goalHistoryGoals": 43.0, "goalHistoryShots": 229.0, "goalExpected": 0.4176979186695225, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.4176979186695225, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.3414388625954421, "goalProbability": 0.3414388625954421, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12835735488716427, "modelSOG": 2.1928578778173766, "historyGames": 167, "seasonGames": { "2024": 79, "2025": 78, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 70.0, "historyShots": 423.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.16548463356973994, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.1583857275118861, "goalieFactor": 0.9911791106382869, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 59.97878495084558, "btb": { "id": "8480039", "name": "Martin Necas", "score": 59.97878495084558, "components": { "Goal model": 89.85507246376811, "SOG model": 82.6086956521739, "Unit attack": 86.66666666666667, "Opposing lines": 22.727272727272727, "Opposing pairs": 40.90909090909091, "PP": 56.42857142857143, "Shot quality": 79.71014492753623, "Goalie": 11.971830985915492, "Team H2H": 40.98901098901099, "Goalie H2H": 50.69444444444444 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": true, "weightedXGA60": 2.0817124528095157, "games": 6, "exactGames": 5, "shares": [ 0.31306731967034584, 0.25642942336370306, 0.25561523152915855, 0.1748880254367925 ], "score": 22.727272727272727 }, "pair": { "available": true, "weightedXGA60": 2.322764700044611, "games": 2, "exactGames": 1, "shares": [ 0.3756136612550117, 0.30810919743134657, 0.30218232685591, 0.014094814457731614 ], "score": 40.90909090909091 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 3.3319209217672654, "unitPlayers": [ "Artturi Lehkonen", "Nathan MacKinnon", "Martin Necas" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": 22, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 18 } }, { "id": "8475768", "name": "Jaden Schwartz", "team": "COL", "opponent": "TBL", "position": "L", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 1.7, "priorSOG": 1.64, "currentTOI": 14.043333333333333, "currentFiveTOI": 11.465, "ppShare": 0.3890330953926022, "rate": 1.433362824914206, "fifty": 1.476621051472204, "inputs": { "Player": "Jaden Schwartz", "Player_ID": "8475768", "Team": "COL", "Opponent": "TBL", "Position": "L", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.3845000650046249, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.4584112292964508, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 10, "Prior_GP": 50, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 7.326646314871348, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.017627393374531, "Current_PP_SOG60": 9.007506255212677, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 8.485108206556674, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 11.9739, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 11.465, "Current_PP_Share": 0.3890330953926022, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.37369906354057814, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1199.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3082.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 5, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.795185185185185, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 1.843426878863546, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 1.8654857355733412, "Other_State_SOG": 0.09000000000000001, "Environment_Proxy": 0.8844868901771036, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.64, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 3", "ppUnit": "PP1 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-23", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:35:35.615148+00:00", "priorGP": 50.0, "currentTotalSOG": 17.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.9983333333333335, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.70 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 23 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.555, "currentIXG": 0.1555, "priorTOI": 16.140666666666664, "priorPPTOI": 1.5556666666666665, "deploymentChange": -2.0973333333333315, "ppTOIChange": 0.442666666666667, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2024020909", "date": "20250223", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 19.883333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020488", "date": "20241214", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 18.583333333333332 } ], "h2hGames": 2, "h2hAvailableGames": 2, "h2hSOG": 2.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "TBL", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 218.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 24.22222222222222, "mostAllowedRank": 29, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.310572168589594, "pkSogAllowed60": 47.9002079002079, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 36.333333333333336, "positionUnassignedSOG": 1.0, "positionTotals": { "L": 36.0, "R": 49.0, "D": 66.0, "C": 66.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.333333333333333, "L": 4.0, "R": 5.444444444444445, "D": 7.333333333333333 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 24.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.25, "positionSourceDifference": 1.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 24.22222222222222, "oppPosSogAllowed": 4.0, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8476883", "team": "TBL", "name": "Andrei Vasilevskiy", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-23T17:44:29.480Z", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-23", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.8975903614457832, "gaa": 2.4556616643929057, "gsax": 1.495000000000001, "goalsAllowed": 17.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 18.495, "shotsAgainst": 166.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9911791106382869, "factor": 0.9911791106382869, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter for October 23; Daily Faceoff confirmation.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.13447232911347878, "goalHistoryGoals": 40.0, "goalHistoryShots": 293.0, "goalExpected": 0.19862308060749137, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.19687104838877006, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.18014114419583316, "goalProbability": 0.17870346600416437, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.14376781916687897, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.4770554055018779, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 7.326646314871348, "Current_PP_SOG60": 9.007506255212677, "Current_5v5_Min": 11.465, "Current_PP_Share": 0.3890330953926022, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.795185185185185, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.8654857355733412, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9588832837562793, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0032616490671127, "Position_Factor": 0.9867937882386387, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1199.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3082.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.017627393374531, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 8.485108206556674, "Prior_5v5_Min": 13.161333333333335, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.37369906354057814, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9006149977914444, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.062091503267974, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.870813176151652, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.0914938331810269, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.095053903023781, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 8.372093023255815, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 9.764918625678119, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five saved meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. Dated 2024–2026 regular-season appearances.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2024020909", "date": "20250223", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 19.883333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020488", "date": "20241214", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 18.583333333333332 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Jaden Schwartz", "Fedor Svechkov", "T.J. Hughes" ], "lineupSource": "NHL.com projected lineup", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "rosterPosition": "L", "projectedPosition": "L", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:35:35.615148+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/colorado-avalanche/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-22T17:33:02.593Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 16, "priorAttempts": 96, "fitPct": -4.3062274616115985, "index": 95.6937725383884, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 13.750000000000002, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.515281930842562, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 15 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 29.583333333333332, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.609652563126957, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 26 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 22.499999999999996, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.85621916135625, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 27 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 16.666666666666664, "opponentDeltaPct": -12.897287560223589, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 13 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 15.416666666666664, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.418201733515886, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 10 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 2.083333333333333, "opponentDeltaPct": -11.722552252061064, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 5 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 19, "fitPct": 3.0497944393675596, "index": 103.04979443936756, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.0484005739127014, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 20.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.8060162233483652, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 77.89473684210526, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.6036826641455946, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 18 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -15.514716416172803, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.241804509586572, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 2.1052631578947367, "opponentDeltaPct": 40.87182317476231, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -4.3062274616115985, "zonePPFit": 3.0497944393675596, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October23 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported unit only. Expected PP minutes retain measured current-season deployment; no guessed transfer.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476883", "goalieName": "Andrei Vasilevskiy", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8475768", "goals": 0, "sog": 7, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 4, "recordedAttempts": 13, "log": [ { "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 4, "gameId": "2024020909", "date": "20250223" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 4, "gameId": "2022020459", "date": "20221213" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 4, "gameId": "2021020967", "date": "20220316" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1, "gameId": "2021020306", "date": "20211126" } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "window": "2021–22 through October21, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked attempts", "coverageNote": "Observed saved encounters only; missing is unavailable, not zero. Not independently established as complete career coverage." }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476883", "goalieName": "Andrei Vasilevskiy", "opponent": "COL", "games": 5, "availableGames": 13, "shotsAgainst": 157.0, "goalsAgainst": 12.0, "savePct": 0.9235668789808917, "gaa": 2.4254674077817078, "gsax": 7.298, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020668", "date": "20260106", "goalieTeam": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "shotsAgainst": 33.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.223 }, { "gameId": "2025020209", "date": "20251104", "goalieTeam": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "shotsAgainst": 33.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3420.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.409 }, { "gameId": "2024020334", "date": "20241125", "goalieTeam": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "shotsAgainst": 25.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.459 }, { "gameId": "2024020157", "date": "20241030", "goalieTeam": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "shotsAgainst": 35.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.364 }, { "gameId": "2023020842", "date": "20240215", "goalieTeam": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "shotsAgainst": 31.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3591.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.843 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "coverageNote": "Last five observed goalie/team regular-season appearances. Historical coverage is not independently established as career-complete." }, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.4966766792656043, "attemptProjection": 1.2899002442732135, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261021", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 23.0, "sog": 14.0, "seconds": 6879.0, "expectedMinutes": 11.465, "projectedAttempts": 2.3, "onNet": 0.5286516920105067, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9399951775173531, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9886177218479464 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 3.0, "sog": 3.0, "seconds": 1199.0, "expectedMinutes": 1.8654857355733412, "projectedAttempts": 0.2800562405364482, "onNet": 0.5853863718303088, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9635919869864824, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0126481883452998 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.1599649218956172, "ppAdjusted": 0.23332353987379176, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.393288461769409, "baseline": 1.64, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 50.0, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.4919730770616453, "adjustedSOG": 1.4770554055018779, "reductionPct": 0.9998619806965259, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.1599649218956172, "afterPlayerForm": 1.1351021359626712, "afterRecentDefense": 1.1599649218956172, "afterRecentZones": 1.1599649218956172, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.1599649218956172, "adjusted": 1.1351021359626712, "playerFactor": 0.9785659156896614, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.870813176151652, "newChartFactor": 0.870813176151652, "playerRecentAttempts": 10.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 58.3, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.8550227459169214, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0299737019606061, "defenseRecentMinutes": 244.35, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.23332353987379176, "afterPlayerForm": 0.23332353987379176, "afterRecentDefense": 0.23332353987379176, "afterRecentZones": 0.23332353987379176, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.23332353987379176, "adjusted": 0.23332353987379176, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.0914938331810269, "newChartFactor": 1.0914938331810269, "playerRecentAttempts": 2.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 12.733333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.0462478184991275, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.04528859527121, "defenseRecentMinutes": 23.966666666666665, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.4770554055018779, "adjustedSOG": 1.4770554055018779, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.1414141414141414, "goalHistoryGoals": 14.0, "goalHistoryShots": 99.0, "goalExpected": 0.20269777322019075, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.20269777322019075, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.1834750201464535, "goalProbability": 0.1834750201464535, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12847625341597158, "modelSOG": 1.4770554055018779, "historyGames": 141, "seasonGames": { "2024": 81, "2025": 50, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 40.0, "historyShots": 293.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.13651877133105803, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.13447232911347878, "goalieFactor": 0.9911791106382869, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 49.085728412753156, "btb": { "id": "8475768", "name": "Jaden Schwartz", "score": 49.085728412753156, "components": { "Goal model": 62.31884057971015, "SOG model": 53.6231884057971, "Unit attack": 46.666666666666664, "Opposing lines": 32.64462809917356, "Opposing pairs": 41.47727272727273, "PP": 75.0, "Shot quality": 49.27536231884058, "Goalie": 11.971830985915492, "Team H2H": 49.35897435897436, "Goalie H2H": 45.39473684210526 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": true, "weightedXGA60": 2.0997704529082193, "games": 6, "exactGames": 6, "shares": [ 0.26001637118883775, 0.2858104031442933, 0.2229862351875911, 0.2311869904792777 ], "score": 32.64462809917356 }, "pair": { "available": true, "weightedXGA60": 2.353270641533208, "games": 3, "exactGames": 2, "shares": [ 0.32912307329380575, 0.3049238599856305, 0.3413828848926681, 0.024570181827895672 ], "score": 41.47727272727273 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.5735984212866643, "unitPlayers": [ "Jaden Schwartz", "Fedor Svechkov", "T.J. Hughes" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 2, "goalieH2HShots": 7, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 35 } }, { "id": "8477149", "name": "Scott Sabourin", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "position": "R", "currentGP": 1, "currentSOG": 1.0, "priorSOG": 0.4230769230769231, "currentTOI": 9.483333333333333, "currentFiveTOI": 9.15, "ppShare": 0.046620046620046623, "rate": 0.49967684420889524, "fifty": 0.6904152685361343, "inputs": { "Player": "Scott Sabourin", "Player_ID": "8477149", "Team": "TBL", "Opponent": "COL", "Position": "R", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 0.4560037851277573, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 0.6276458357951706, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 1, "Prior_GP": 26, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 6.557377049180328, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.199224430441105, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 8.785384615384615, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 9.15, "Current_PP_Share": 0.046620046620046623, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.002277693418762268, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 20.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 429.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 1, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.612685185185185, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.15368240367058775, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.21504359837693174, "Other_State_SOG": 0.0, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9914667421548949, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 0.4230769230769231, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Not on projected lineup", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "PP assignment pending", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-23", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:35:35.615148+00:00", "priorGP": 26.0, "currentTotalSOG": 1.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.3333333333333333, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.00 SOG/game in 1 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 1 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Not listed on latest projected chart; October 23 dressing status unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.19, "currentIXG": 0.19, "priorTOI": 7.952564102564103, "priorPPTOI": 0.011538461538461537, "deploymentChange": 1.5307692307692298, "ppTOIChange": 0.32179487179487176, "h2hLog": [], "h2hGames": 0, "h2hAvailableGames": 0, "h2hSOG": null, "opponentDefense": { "team": "COL", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 273.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.3, "mostAllowedRank": 16, "fiveSogAllowed60": 27.02393375298751, "pkSogAllowed60": 47.51429828420589, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 40.2, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 100.0, "R": 60.0, "L": 45.0, "D": 68.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.0, "L": 4.5, "R": 6.0, "D": 6.8 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 29.0, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.8, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.3, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.0, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8478406", "team": "COL", "name": "Mackenzie Blackwood", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-23T16:26:32.640Z", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-23", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.8888888888888888, "gaa": 2.897734132893307, "gsax": -2.4450000000000003, "goalsAllowed": 20.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 17.555, "shotsAgainst": 180.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0252999843886221, "factor": 1.0252999843886221, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter for October 23; Daily Faceoff confirmation.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.12366256355109859, "goalHistoryGoals": 1.0, "goalHistoryShots": 12.0, "goalExpected": 0.07713764323680881, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.07908922440647519, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.07423758009948839, "goalProbability": 0.07604251879070209, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.18049386912137033, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 1, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 0.6237752236547707, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 6.557377049180328, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 9.15, "Current_PP_Share": 0.046620046620046623, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.612685185185185, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.21504359837693174, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0289555868427727, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9996701327073623, "Position_Factor": 1.014013991473008, "Input_GP": 1, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 20.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 429.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.199224430441105, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 7.934615384615385, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.002277693418762268, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0573770491803278, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.382352941176471, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.9890283018576926, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0457758273741176, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9996701327073623, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 6.557377049180328, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [], "h2hWindow": "Last five saved meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. Dated 2024–2026 regular-season appearances.", "h2hFullLog": [], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "NHL.com projected lineup", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 27, "fitPct": -0.3657232714102463, "index": 99.63427672858975, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 5.9259259259259265, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.604370751696635, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 7.4074074074074066, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.2025641924569896, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 74.81481481481481, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.26262818174886604, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 10 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 1.4814814814814816, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.0950116912032684, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 8.888888888888891, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.044692588641311204, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 1.4814814814814816, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.6551158457307906, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -0.3657232714102463, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October23 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported unit only. Expected PP minutes retain measured current-season deployment; no guessed transfer.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478406", "goalieName": "Mackenzie Blackwood", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8477149", "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 2, "log": [ { "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2, "gameId": "2021021274", "date": "20220426" } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "window": "2021–22 through October21, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked attempts", "coverageNote": "Observed saved encounters only; missing is unavailable, not zero. Not independently established as complete career coverage." }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478406", "goalieName": "Mackenzie Blackwood", "opponent": "TBL", "games": 4, "availableGames": 4, "shotsAgainst": 99.0, "goalsAgainst": 15.0, "savePct": 0.8484848484848485, "gaa": 4.800426704595964, "gsax": -3.8269999999999995, "log": [ { "gameId": "2024020413", "date": "20241205", "goalieTeam": "SJS", "opponent": "TBL", "shotsAgainst": 23.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 2400.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.907 }, { "gameId": "2023021108", "date": "20240321", "goalieTeam": "SJS", "opponent": "TBL", "shotsAgainst": 21.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.592 }, { "gameId": "2023020106", "date": "20231026", "goalieTeam": "SJS", "opponent": "TBL", "shotsAgainst": 21.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 1649.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.962 }, { "gameId": "2021020264", "date": "20211120", "goalieTeam": "NJD", "opponent": "TBL", "shotsAgainst": 34.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.712 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "coverageNote": "Last five observed goalie/team regular-season appearances. Historical coverage is not independently established as career-complete." }, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.0457758273741178, "attemptProjection": 0.5120159702008941, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261021", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 1.0, "sog": 1.0, "seconds": 549.0, "expectedMinutes": 9.15, "projectedAttempts": 1.0, "onNet": 0.5042062501999168, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0290266956001277, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9868443082842028 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 20.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.21504359837693174, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.49743589743589745, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9649306914974484, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9896116972997503 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.7788958987875059, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.7788958987875059, "baseline": 0.4230769230769231, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 26.0, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.6365683085032727, "adjustedSOG": 0.6365053302599701, "reductionPct": 0.009893399099725197, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.7788958987875059, "afterPlayerForm": 0.7788958987875059, "afterRecentDefense": 0.7788958987875059, "afterRecentZones": 0.7787909350486683, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.7787909350486683, "adjusted": 0.7787909350486683, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.9890283018576926, "newChartFactor": 0.9888297657935348, "playerRecentAttempts": 1.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 9.15, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0842659644502963, "defenseRecentMinutes": 251.61666666666667, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.3333333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.594204503506829, "defenseRecentMinutes": 15.05, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.6365053302599701, "adjustedSOG": 0.6237752236547707, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.08333333333333333, "goalHistoryGoals": 1.0, "goalHistoryShots": 12.0, "goalExpected": 0.04163973701740793, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.04163973701740793, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.040784711907401086, "goalProbability": 0.040784711907401086, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12850207117723042, "modelSOG": 0.6237752236547707, "historyGames": 28, "seasonGames": { "2024": 1, "2025": 26, "2026": 1 }, "historyGoals": 1.0, "historyShots": 12.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.08333333333333333, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.12366256355109859, "goalieFactor": 1.0252999843886221, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8470613", "name": "Brent Burns", "team": "COL", "opponent": "TBL", "position": "D", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 1.3, "priorSOG": 2.097560975609756, "currentTOI": 16.141666666666666, "currentFiveTOI": 14.219999999999999, "ppShare": 0.004218040233614536, "rate": 1.7138593632766863, "fifty": 1.4935935116463155, "inputs": { "Player": "Brent Burns", "Player_ID": "8470613", "Team": "COL", "Opponent": "TBL", "Position": "D", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.677608940931388, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.4614204759498541, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 10, "Prior_GP": 82, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.063291139240507, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 7.425684408412643, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 8.189795255118621, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 14.624670731707315, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 14.219999999999999, "Current_PP_Share": 0.004218040233614536, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.11416878263357412, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 13.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3082.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 5, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.795185185185185, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.1783965353556631, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.02022628403874348, "Other_State_SOG": 0.08682926829268292, "Environment_Proxy": 0.8844868901771036, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 2.097560975609756, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 3", "ppUnit": "PP assignment pending", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-23", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:35:35.615148+00:00", "priorGP": 82.0, "currentTotalSOG": 13.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.021666666666666667, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.30 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 23 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.471, "currentIXG": 0.047099999999999996, "priorTOI": 18.87621951219512, "priorPPTOI": 0.6254065040650406, "deploymentChange": -2.734552845528455, "ppTOIChange": -0.603739837398374, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020668", "date": "20260106", "team": "COL", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 18.316666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020209", "date": "20251104", "team": "COL", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 21.5 }, { "gameId": "2024021029", "date": "20250311", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 22.4 }, { "gameId": "2024020029", "date": "20250107", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 20.866666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020020", "date": "20241011", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 16.966666666666665 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 5, "h2hSOG": 1.8, "opponentDefense": { "team": "TBL", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 218.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 24.22222222222222, "mostAllowedRank": 29, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.310572168589594, "pkSogAllowed60": 47.9002079002079, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 36.333333333333336, "positionUnassignedSOG": 1.0, "positionTotals": { "L": 36.0, "R": 49.0, "D": 66.0, "C": 66.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.333333333333333, "L": 4.0, "R": 5.444444444444445, "D": 7.333333333333333 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 24.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.25, "positionSourceDifference": 1.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 24.22222222222222, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.333333333333333, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8476883", "team": "TBL", "name": "Andrei Vasilevskiy", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-23T17:44:29.480Z", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-23", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.8975903614457832, "gaa": 2.4556616643929057, "gsax": 1.495000000000001, "goalsAllowed": 17.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 18.495, "shotsAgainst": 166.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9911791106382869, "factor": 0.9911791106382869, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter for October 23; Daily Faceoff confirmation.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.051794281564574295, "goalHistoryGoals": 18.0, "goalHistoryShots": 359.0, "goalExpected": 0.08729517031538861, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.08652514927622466, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.08359344030522191, "goalProbability": 0.08288751622051088, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.07059240847110265, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.6854210093937443, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.063291139240507, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 14.219999999999999, "Current_PP_Share": 0.004218040233614536, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.795185185185185, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.02022628403874348, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.1, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9588832837562793, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0032616490671127, "Position_Factor": 1.0144938104754524, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 13.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3082.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 7.425684408412643, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 8.189795255118621, "Prior_5v5_Min": 15.568902439024392, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.11416878263357412, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9991571455328714, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.34640522875817, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.0659977662907945, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.065099285311527, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0032616490671127, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 4.699738903394256, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 1.3333333333333333 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five saved meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. Dated 2024–2026 regular-season appearances.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020668", "date": "20260106", "team": "COL", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 18.316666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020209", "date": "20251104", "team": "COL", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 21.5 }, { "gameId": "2024021029", "date": "20250311", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 22.4 }, { "gameId": "2024020029", "date": "20250107", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 20.866666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020020", "date": "20241011", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 16.966666666666665 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Josh Manson", "Brent Burns" ], "lineupSource": "NHL.com projected lineup", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:35:35.615148+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 27, "priorAttempts": 240, "fitPct": 2.199925543026481, "index": 102.19992554302648, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 74.77777777777777, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.515281930842562, "currentAttempts": 20, "priorAttempts": 182 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 1.5000000000000002, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.609652563126957, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 9 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 3.7222222222222228, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.85621916135625, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 9 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 4.222222222222223, "opponentDeltaPct": -12.897287560223589, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 12 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 15.611111111111112, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.418201733515886, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 27 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.16666666666666669, "opponentDeltaPct": -11.722552252061064, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 16, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 2.199925543026481, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October23 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported unit only. Expected PP minutes retain measured current-season deployment; no guessed transfer.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476883", "goalieName": "Andrei Vasilevskiy", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8470613", "goals": 0, "sog": 25, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 10, "recordedAttempts": 37, "log": [ { "goals": 0, "sog": 4, "attempts": 5, "gameId": "2025020668", "date": "20260106" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2, "gameId": "2025020209", "date": "20251104" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2, "gameId": "2024021029", "date": "20250311" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 4, "gameId": "2024020029", "date": "20250107" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2, "gameId": "2024020020", "date": "20241011" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 6, "gameId": "2023020303", "date": "20231124" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2, "gameId": "2022021179", "date": "20230328" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 3, "gameId": "2022021001", "date": "20230305" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 7, "attempts": 8, "gameId": "2022020162", "date": "20221103" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 3, "gameId": "2021020797", "date": "20220201" } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "window": "2021–22 through October21, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked attempts", "coverageNote": "Observed saved encounters only; missing is unavailable, not zero. Not independently established as complete career coverage." }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476883", "goalieName": "Andrei Vasilevskiy", "opponent": "COL", "games": 5, "availableGames": 13, "shotsAgainst": 157.0, "goalsAgainst": 12.0, "savePct": 0.9235668789808917, "gaa": 2.4254674077817078, "gsax": 7.298, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020668", "date": "20260106", "goalieTeam": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "shotsAgainst": 33.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.223 }, { "gameId": "2025020209", "date": "20251104", "goalieTeam": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "shotsAgainst": 33.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3420.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.409 }, { "gameId": "2024020334", "date": "20241125", "goalieTeam": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "shotsAgainst": 25.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.459 }, { "gameId": "2024020157", "date": "20241030", "goalieTeam": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "shotsAgainst": 35.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.364 }, { "gameId": "2023020842", "date": "20240215", "goalieTeam": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "shotsAgainst": 31.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3591.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.843 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "coverageNote": "Last five observed goalie/team regular-season appearances. Historical coverage is not independently established as career-complete." }, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.3781191423738326, "attemptProjection": 1.481936962713817, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261021", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 44.0, "sog": 12.0, "seconds": 8532.0, "expectedMinutes": 14.219999999999999, "projectedAttempts": 4.3999999999999995, "onNet": 0.3379726365899304, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9399951775173531, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9886177218479464 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 13.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.02022628403874348, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.425764192139738, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9635919869864824, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0126481883452998 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.3300280525438248, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.1 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.430028052543825, "baseline": 2.097560975609756, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 82.0, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.6970412217701973, "adjustedSOG": 1.6854210093937443, "reductionPct": 0.6847336545150018, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.3300280525438248, "afterPlayerForm": 1.3219312495028341, "afterRecentDefense": 1.3231661392650131, "afterRecentZones": 1.3255274990080332, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.3186888050951668, "adjusted": 1.310661031916403, "playerFactor": 0.9939123065671399, "defenseFactor": 0.9948407755267361, "oldChartFactor": 1.0659977662907945, "newChartFactor": 1.058490516211877, "playerRecentAttempts": 21.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 70.51666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.9624417180550482, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.975764559752153, "defenseRecentMinutes": 244.35, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.0, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.04528859527121, "defenseRecentMinutes": 23.966666666666665, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.6854210093937443, "adjustedSOG": 1.6854210093937443, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.06486486486486487, "goalHistoryGoals": 12.0, "goalHistoryShots": 185.0, "goalExpected": 0.1111692559963256, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.1111692559963256, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.10521271200237237, "goalProbability": 0.10521271200237237, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.057735752381396, "modelSOG": 1.6854210093937443, "historyGames": 174, "seasonGames": { "2024": 82, "2025": 82, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 18.0, "historyShots": 359.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.05013927576601671, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.051794281564574295, "goalieFactor": 0.9911791106382869, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 31.857363497902384, "btb": { "id": "8470613", "name": "Brent Burns", "score": 31.857363497902384, "components": { "Goal model": 26.08695652173913, "SOG model": 68.1159420289855, "Unit attack": 27.272727272727273, "Opposing lines": 34.61538461538461, "Opposing pairs": 30.41958041958042, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 7.246376811594203, "Goalie": 11.971830985915492, "Team H2H": 46.666666666666664, "Goalie H2H": 33.33333333333333 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": true, "games": 8, "exactGames": 8, "individualGames": 0, "roleGames": 0, "exactMinutes": 78.75, "exactWeight": 0.5675675675675675, "individualWeight": 0, "venueGames": 3, "venueFallback": false, "shares": [ 0.21335298341001335, 0.22913808182930345, 0.19401764419407241, 0.20295516158086024, 0.16053612898575043 ], "units": [ { "unit": 2, "names": [ "Gage Goncalves", "Brayden Point", "Jake Guentzel" ], "share": 0.21335298341001335, "xGA60": 2.0340078043220755 }, { "unit": 1, "names": [ "Brandon Hagel", "Anthony Cirelli", "Nikita Kucherov" ], "share": 0.22913808182930345, "xGA60": 1.9481706788671902 }, { "unit": 3, "names": [ "Ilya Mikheyev", "Zemgus Girgensons", "Pontus Holmberg" ], "share": 0.19401764419407241, "xGA60": 2.125408163982028 }, { "unit": 4, "names": [ "Jeffrey Viel", "Conor Geekie", "Dominic James" ], "share": 0.20295516158086024, "xGA60": 2.3268473115300212 } ], "otherShare": 0.16053612898575043, "weightedXGA60": 2.118100646699211, "score": 34.61538461538461 }, "pair": { "available": true, "games": 8, "exactGames": 8, "individualGames": 0, "roleGames": 0, "exactMinutes": 78.75, "exactWeight": 0.5675675675675675, "individualWeight": 0, "venueGames": 3, "venueFallback": false, "shares": [ 0.2980326207371532, 0.2980961849774147, 0.332235493976225, 0.07163570030920711 ], "units": [ { "unit": 1, "names": [ "J.J. Moser", "John Carlson" ], "share": 0.2980326207371532, "xGA60": 2.1330165084190638 }, { "unit": 2, "names": [ "Ryan McDonagh", "Erik Cernak" ], "share": 0.2980961849774147, "xGA60": 2.0098658998691765 }, { "unit": 3, "names": [ "Victor Hedman", "Max Crozier" ], "share": 0.332235493976225, "xGA60": 2.8833997473734136 } ], "otherShare": 0.07163570030920711, "weightedXGA60": 2.3503845229153493, "score": 30.41958041958042 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.6349778059393003, "unitPlayers": [ "Josh Manson", "Brent Burns" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 5, "goalieH2HShots": 25, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 67 } }, { "id": "8484144", "name": "Connor Bedard", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "MTL", "position": "C", "currentGP": 3, "currentSOG": 2.6666666666666665, "priorSOG": 3.2794117647058822, "currentTOI": 20.305555555555554, "currentFiveTOI": 15.588888888888889, "ppShare": 0.8553846153846154, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 1", "ppUnit": "PP1 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-23", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:35:35.615148+00:00", "priorGP": 68.0, "currentTotalSOG": 8.0, "currentPPTOI": 3.088888888888889, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.67 SOG/game in 3 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 3 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 23 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.491, "currentIXG": 0.49700000000000005, "priorTOI": 20.889460784313727, "priorPPTOI": 3.3473039215686278, "deploymentChange": -0.583905228758173, "ppTOIChange": -0.25841503267973875, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020031", "date": "20251011", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "toi": 18.383333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024021285", "date": "20250414", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 24.0 }, { "gameId": "2024020616", "date": "20250103", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 18.7 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 3, "h2hSOG": 1.6666666666666667, "opponentDefense": { "team": "MTL", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 237.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 26.333333333333332, "mostAllowedRank": 20, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.983070773571598, "pkSogAllowed60": 45.93967517401392, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 38.666666666666664, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 76.0, "D": 64.0, "R": 52.0, "L": 45.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 8.444444444444445, "L": 5.0, "R": 5.777777777777778, "D": 7.111111111111111 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 25.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 3, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27.333333333333332, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 26.333333333333332, "oppPosSogAllowed": 8.444444444444445, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8484170", "team": "MTL", "name": "Jacob Fowler", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-23T17:12:10.576Z", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-23", "games": 4, "savePct": 0.9, "gaa": 2.163895011019836, "gsax": 2.1389999999999993, "goalsAllowed": 9.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 11.139, "shotsAgainst": 90.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9828963086689823, "factor": 0.9828963086689823, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter for October 23; Daily Faceoff confirmation.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.12709198824254272, "goalHistoryGoals": 54.0, "goalHistoryShots": 426.0, "goalExpected": 0.41331364132647236, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.40624445238232537, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.33854520926746556, "goalProbability": 0.333852693776193, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.46925154912725864, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": null, "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 3, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 3.2520825824024673, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.848895224518888, "Current_PP_SOG60": 12.949640287769784, "Current_5v5_Min": 15.588888888888889, "Current_PP_Share": 0.8553846153846154, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.173148148148148, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 4.42503133903134, "Remaining_State_SOG": 1.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9711545151193198, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9819199317155711, "Position_Factor": 0.9911637855464778, "Input_GP": 3, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 556.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 650.0, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9501385041551247, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.437908496732026, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.0112631621000772, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.1905686428839417, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9608400681449487, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.15, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 6.956521739130435, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 20.571428571428573, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 1.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five saved meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. Dated 2024–2026 regular-season appearances.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020031", "date": "20251011", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "toi": 18.383333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024021285", "date": "20250414", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 24.0 }, { "gameId": "2024020616", "date": "20250103", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 18.7 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Roman Kantserov", "Connor Bedard", "Patrick Kane" ], "lineupSource": "NHL.com projected lineup", "isHome": true, "rosterPosition": "C", "projectedPosition": "C", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:35:35.615148+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/chicago-blackhawks/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-22T16:55:34.203Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 225, "fitPct": 0.37543873666923844, "index": 100.37543873666924, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 5.688888888888889, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.711511602468903, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 32 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 8.88888888888889, "opponentDeltaPct": -5.805766108288097, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 50 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 44.711111111111116, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.5231164238779513, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 49 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 16.62222222222222, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.4830868449991215, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 26 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 22.311111111111114, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.49406869911976514, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 58 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 1.7777777777777777, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.365981626756792, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 10 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 68, "fitPct": 6.352288096131389, "index": 106.35228809613139, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 5.88235294117647, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.8191755597579373, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 10 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 6.470588235294119, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.365371878175409, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 11 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 3.529411764705883, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.116979926964163, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 41.88235294117647, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.921488030021976, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 10 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 42.23529411764706, "opponentDeltaPct": 19.17564972004449, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 31 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 88.51112253515706, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 0.37543873666923844, "zonePPFit": 6.352288096131389, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October23 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported unit only. Expected PP minutes retain measured current-season deployment; no guessed transfer.", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8484170", "goalieName": "Jacob Fowler", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8484144", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "window": "2021–22 through October21, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked attempts", "coverageNote": "Observed saved encounters only; missing is unavailable, not zero. Not independently established as complete career coverage." }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8484170", "goalieName": "Jacob Fowler", "opponent": "CHI", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "coverageNote": "Last five observed goalie/team regular-season appearances. Historical coverage is not independently established as career-complete." }, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 3.059139213444094, "attemptProjection": 3.481516740402581, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261021", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 6.0, "sog": 3.0, "seconds": 2806.0, "expectedMinutes": 15.588888888888889, "projectedAttempts": 1.9999999999999998, "onNet": 0.5050425721838844, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.916154770019487, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0295873524263528 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 7.0, "sog": 2.0, "seconds": 556.0, "expectedMinutes": 4.42503133903134, "projectedAttempts": 3.342649572649573, "onNet": 0.499484004127967, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9091960351585663, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0070808959552022 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.9568071796276714, "ppAdjusted": 1.3135207972956664, "other": 1.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 3.2703279769233378, "baseline": 3.2794117647058822, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 68.0, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 3.2739614920363556, "adjustedSOG": 3.2520825824024673, "reductionPct": 0.6682702190330292, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.9568071796276714, "afterPlayerForm": 0.9568071796276714, "afterRecentDefense": 0.9568071796276714, "afterRecentZones": 0.9568071796276714, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.9568071796276714, "adjusted": 0.9568071796276714, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.0112631621000772, "newChartFactor": 1.0112631621000772, "playerRecentAttempts": 6.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 46.766666666666666, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.1123498161013488, "defenseRecentMinutes": 244.7, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 1.3135207972956664, "afterPlayerForm": 1.3135207972956664, "afterRecentDefense": 1.2770559479058532, "afterRecentZones": 1.3135207972956664, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.2770559479058532, "adjusted": 1.2770559479058532, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9722388488519644, "oldChartFactor": 1.1905686428839417, "newChartFactor": 1.1905686428839417, "playerRecentAttempts": 7.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 9.266666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8240542632130013, "defenseRecentMinutes": 33.28333333333333, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 3.2520825824024673, "adjustedSOG": 3.2520825824024673, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": null, "goalHistoryShots": null, "goalExpected": null, "goalExpectedAdjusted": null, "goalBaselineProbability": null, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": null }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12850385815577473, "modelSOG": 3.2520825824024673, "historyGames": 153, "seasonGames": { "2024": 82, "2025": 68, "2026": 3 }, "historyGoals": 54.0, "historyShots": 426.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.1267605633802817, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.12709198824254272, "goalieFactor": 0.9828963086689823, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 58.40902194708898, "btb": { "id": "8484144", "name": "Connor Bedard", "score": 58.40902194708898, "components": { "Goal model": 94.20289855072464, "SOG model": 95.65217391304348, "Unit attack": 6.666666666666667, "Opposing lines": 42.04545454545455, "Opposing pairs": 52.7972027972028, "PP": 48.57142857142857, "Shot quality": 82.6086956521739, "Goalie": 37.32394366197183, "Team H2H": 50.17751479289941, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": true, "weightedXGA60": 2.350953038481599, "games": 7, "exactGames": 3, "shares": [ 0.29297687982777665, 0.21671216310627706, 0.30526135155441075, 0.18504960551153554 ], "score": 42.04545454545455 }, "pair": { "available": true, "weightedXGA60": 2.583308202520541, "games": 8, "exactGames": 3, "shares": [ 0.32037978378799314, 0.32379761490153164, 0.21304328342879933, 0.14277931788167586 ], "score": 52.7972027972028 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.281685067381317, "unitPlayers": [ "Roman Kantserov", "Connor Bedard", "Patrick Kane" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 3, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 22 } }, { "id": "8482807", "name": "Ethan Del Mastro", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "MTL", "position": "D", "currentGP": 3, "currentSOG": 1.0, "priorSOG": 0.9444444444444444, "currentTOI": 14.511111111111111, "currentFiveTOI": 14.338888888888889, "ppShare": 0.0, "rate": 0.9582514939530982, "fifty": 0.9687411758482414, "inputs": { "Player": "Ethan Del Mastro", "Player_ID": "8482807", "Team": "CHI", "Opponent": "MTL", "Position": "D", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.0121912370550976, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 0.6441533731900804, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 3, "Prior_GP": 18, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.184424641611779, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.337349397590361, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 13.956666666666665, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 14.338888888888889, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.0002139596804868771, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 598.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 1, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.173148148148148, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.0003320535374667173, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.0, "Other_State_SOG": 0.0, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9555676582468344, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 0.9444444444444444, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 3", "ppUnit": "PP assignment pending", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-23", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:35:35.615148+00:00", "priorGP": 18.0, "currentTotalSOG": 3.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.0, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.00 SOG/game in 3 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 3 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 23 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.339, "currentIXG": 0.113, "priorTOI": 14.075925925925926, "priorPPTOI": 0.000925925925925926, "deploymentChange": 0.4351851851851851, "ppTOIChange": -0.000925925925925926, "h2hLog": [], "h2hGames": 0, "h2hAvailableGames": 0, "h2hSOG": null, "opponentDefense": { "team": "MTL", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 237.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 26.333333333333332, "mostAllowedRank": 20, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.983070773571598, "pkSogAllowed60": 45.93967517401392, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 38.666666666666664, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 76.0, "D": 64.0, "R": 52.0, "L": 45.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 8.444444444444445, "L": 5.0, "R": 5.777777777777778, "D": 7.111111111111111 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 25.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 3, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27.333333333333332, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 26.333333333333332, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.111111111111111, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8484170", "team": "MTL", "name": "Jacob Fowler", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-23T17:12:10.576Z", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-23", "games": 4, "savePct": 0.9, "gaa": 2.163895011019836, "gsax": 2.1389999999999993, "goalsAllowed": 9.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 11.139, "shotsAgainst": 90.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9828963086689823, "factor": 0.9828963086689823, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter for October 23; Daily Faceoff confirmation.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.055883831668280745, "goalHistoryGoals": 2.0, "goalHistoryShots": 39.0, "goalExpected": 0.04864649335632693, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.04781445874962391, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.047482208443570845, "goalProbability": 0.04668935088077039, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.0792857562800453, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 3, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 0.8704931624067275, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.184424641611779, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 14.338888888888889, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.173148148148148, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.0, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9711545151193198, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9819199317155711, "Position_Factor": 1.0001333630485962, "Input_GP": 3, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 598.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.337349397590361, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 13.064814814814815, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.0002139596804868771, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9848286195916839, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.34640522875817, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.9136513171583176, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.8997899654651497, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9819199317155711, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 0, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [], "h2hWindow": "Last five saved meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. Dated 2024–2026 regular-season appearances.", "h2hFullLog": [], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Ethan Del Mastro", "Sam Rinzel" ], "lineupSource": "NHL.com projected lineup", "isHome": true, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:35:35.615148+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 25, "fitPct": -2.8782894280560782, "index": 97.12171057194392, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 44.800000000000004, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.711511602468903, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 13 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 13.600000000000001, "opponentDeltaPct": -5.805766108288097, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 13.600000000000001, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.5231164238779513, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 20.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.4830868449991215, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 8.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.49406869911976514, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.365981626756792, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -2.8782894280560782, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October23 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported unit only. Expected PP minutes retain measured current-season deployment; no guessed transfer.", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8484170", "goalieName": "Jacob Fowler", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8482807", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "window": "2021–22 through October21, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked attempts", "coverageNote": "Observed saved encounters only; missing is unavailable, not zero. Not independently established as complete career coverage." }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8484170", "goalieName": "Jacob Fowler", "opponent": "CHI", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "coverageNote": "Last five observed goalie/team regular-season appearances. Historical coverage is not independently established as career-complete." }, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.8997899654651499, "attemptProjection": 0.7670543415392436, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261021", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 6.0, "sog": 3.0, "seconds": 2581.0, "expectedMinutes": 14.338888888888889, "projectedAttempts": 2.0, "onNet": 0.406596925704526, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.916154770019487, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0295873524263528 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 0.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.0, "projectedAttempts": 0, "onNet": 0.425764192139738, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9091960351585663, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0070808959552022 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.8334221535021967, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.8334221535021967, "baseline": 0.9444444444444444, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 18.0, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.8778310698790958, "adjustedSOG": 0.8704931624067275, "reductionPct": 0.8359133920127659, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.8334221535021967, "afterPlayerForm": 0.8334221535021967, "afterRecentDefense": 0.8211923077149162, "afterRecentZones": 0.8334221535021968, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.8211923077149162, "adjusted": 0.8211923077149162, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.985325749098595, "oldChartFactor": 0.9136513171583176, "newChartFactor": 0.9136513171583176, "playerRecentAttempts": 6.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 43.016666666666666, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9310963862455485, "defenseRecentMinutes": 244.7, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9722388488519644, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.0, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8240542632130013, "defenseRecentMinutes": 33.28333333333333, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.8704931624067275, "adjustedSOG": 0.8704931624067275, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.0, "goalHistoryGoals": 0.0, "goalHistoryShots": 20.0, "goalExpected": 0.0, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.0, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.0, "goalProbability": 0.0, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.057678526018910235, "modelSOG": 0.8704931624067275, "historyGames": 45, "seasonGames": { "2024": 24, "2025": 18, "2026": 3 }, "historyGoals": 2.0, "historyShots": 39.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.05128205128205128, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.055883831668280745, "goalieFactor": 0.9828963086689823, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": 39.675183461160195, "btb": { "id": "8482807", "name": "Ethan Del Mastro", "score": 39.675183461160195, "components": { "Goal model": 8.695652173913043, "SOG model": 13.043478260869565, "Unit attack": 54.54545454545455, "Opposing lines": 57.69230769230769, "Opposing pairs": 52.7972027972028, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 50.72463768115942, "Goalie": 37.32394366197183, "Team H2H": 50.0, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Team H2H unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": true, "games": 8, "exactGames": 1, "individualGames": 7, "roleGames": 1, "exactMinutes": 11.683333333333334, "exactWeight": 0.16298535224366426, "individualWeight": 0.5075576225976336, "venueGames": 4, "venueFallback": false, "shares": [ 0.21774535074914042, 0.2118217466596137, 0.22446164111429703, 0.17403651281922064, 0.17193474865772806 ], "units": [ { "unit": 1, "names": [ "Cole Caufield", "Oliver Kapanen", "Juraj Slafkovsky" ], "share": 0.21774535074914042, "xGA60": 2.393836441797616 }, { "unit": 3, "names": [ "Zack Bolduc", "Phillip Danault", "Alexandre Texier" ], "share": 0.2118217466596137, "xGA60": 1.4811345950049914 }, { "unit": 2, "names": [ "Chris Kreider", "Alex Newhook", "Josh Anderson" ], "share": 0.22446164111429703, "xGA60": 3.419916688602215 }, { "unit": 4, "names": [ "Kirby Dach", "Owen Beck", "Jake Evans" ], "share": 0.17403651281922064, "xGA60": 2.466061001042222 } ], "otherShare": 0.17193474865772806, "weightedXGA60": 2.44697406478995, "score": 57.69230769230769 }, "pair": { "available": true, "games": 8, "exactGames": 1, "individualGames": 7, "roleGames": 1, "exactMinutes": 11.683333333333334, "exactWeight": 0.16298535224366426, "individualWeight": 0.5075576225976336, "venueGames": 4, "venueFallback": false, "shares": [ 0.3193646363883582, 0.29224236242734813, 0.26914575006062713, 0.11924725112366644 ], "units": [ { "unit": 1, "names": [ "Lane Hutson", "Noah Dobson" ], "share": 0.3193646363883582, "xGA60": 2.66866610905572 }, { "unit": 2, "names": [ "Kaiden Guhle", "Alexandre Carrier" ], "share": 0.29224236242734813, "xGA60": 2.6426590844163664 }, { "unit": 3, "names": [ "Arber Xhekaj", "Mike Matheson" ], "share": 0.26914575006062713, "xGA60": 2.4777575426949268 } ], "otherShare": 0.11924725112366644, "weightedXGA60": 2.5793954256941203, "score": 52.7972027972028 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.959005107536269, "unitPlayers": [ "Ethan Del Mastro", "Sam Rinzel" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 0, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 58 } }, { "id": "8482087", "name": "Kaiden Guhle", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "CHI", "position": "D", "currentGP": 5, "currentSOG": 1.4, "priorSOG": 1.0256410256410255, "currentTOI": 21.906666666666666, "currentFiveTOI": 17.486666666666668, "ppShare": 0.03571428571428571, "rate": 1.1864547891043957, "fifty": 1.326973078511835, "inputs": { "Player": "Kaiden Guhle", "Player_ID": "8482087", "Team": "MTL", "Opponent": "CHI", "Position": "D", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 0.6977883067792282, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 0.42675506643040095, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 5, "Prior_GP": 39, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.803659931376287, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.62136605975254, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 17.338615384615387, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 17.486666666666668, "Current_PP_Share": 0.03571428571428571, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.0035979706567941866, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 49.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1372.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 1, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.349074074074074, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.1134212041226747, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.15532407407407406, "Other_State_SOG": 0.0, "Environment_Proxy": 1.1241623654244617, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.0256410256410255, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 2", "ppUnit": "PP assignment pending", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-23", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:35:35.615148+00:00", "priorGP": 39.0, "currentTotalSOG": 7.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.16333333333333333, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.40 SOG/game in 5 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 5 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 23 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.429, "currentIXG": 0.0858, "priorTOI": 19.46282051282051, "priorPPTOI": 0.017094017094017092, "deploymentChange": 2.443846153846156, "ppTOIChange": 0.14623931623931624, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020031", "date": "20251011", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 1.0, "toi": 16.533333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2024021285", "date": "20250414", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 19.25 }, { "gameId": "2024020616", "date": "20250103", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 19.633333333333333 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 3, "h2hSOG": 1.6666666666666667, "opponentDefense": { "team": "CHI", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 275.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 30.555555555555557, "mostAllowedRank": 4, "fiveSogAllowed60": 29.037678778147054, "pkSogAllowed60": 51.98019801980198, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 47.0, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 88.0, "D": 70.0, "R": 50.0, "L": 67.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.777777777777779, "L": 7.444444444444445, "R": 5.555555555555555, "D": 7.777777777777778 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 30.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.8, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 30.555555555555557, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.777777777777778, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8481519", "team": "CHI", "name": "Spencer Knight", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-23T17:38:57.370Z", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-23", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.8878923766816144, "gaa": 3.589375448671931, "gsax": -1.0060000000000002, "goalsAllowed": 25.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 23.994, "shotsAgainst": 223.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0134476231189056, "factor": 1.0134476231189056, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter for October 23; Daily Faceoff confirmation.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.0631399527707153, "goalHistoryGoals": 8.0, "goalHistoryShots": 118.0, "goalExpected": 0.07947056417546094, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.08053925437153935, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.07639479335072047, "goalProbability": 0.0773813139437785, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.09865205930580379, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 5, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.2586414890750424, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.803659931376287, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 17.486666666666668, "Current_PP_Share": 0.03571428571428571, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.349074074074074, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.15532407407407406, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0652555848758556, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0415262503506049, "Position_Factor": 0.9933299562396771, "Input_GP": 5, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 49.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1372.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.62136605975254, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 16.993162393162393, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.0035979706567941866, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0278141974152464, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.34640522875817, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.0914838706956516, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.1218426185507377, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0415262503506049, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 3.5617116002968094, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 4.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five saved meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. Dated 2024–2026 regular-season appearances.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020031", "date": "20251011", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 1.0, "toi": 16.533333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2024021285", "date": "20250414", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 19.25 }, { "gameId": "2024020616", "date": "20250103", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 19.633333333333333 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Kaiden Guhle", "Alexandre Carrier" ], "lineupSource": "NHL.com projected lineup", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:35:35.615148+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 11, "priorAttempts": 70, "fitPct": 3.0494623565217154, "index": 103.04946235652172, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 61.298701298701296, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.6823628774928636, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 50 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 1.1428571428571428, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.333228225851869, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 8.311688311688311, "opponentDeltaPct": 17.724165752730244, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 11.74025974025974, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.874621784366013, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 11 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 12.05194805194805, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.336952686487635, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 5.454545454545454, "opponentDeltaPct": -11.504840448330498, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 3.0494623565217154, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October23 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported unit only. Expected PP minutes retain measured current-season deployment; no guessed transfer.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481519", "goalieName": "Spencer Knight", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8482087", "goals": 1, "sog": 4, "shootingPct": 0.25, "gamesWithAttempts": 2, "recordedAttempts": 5, "log": [ { "goals": 1, "sog": 4, "attempts": 4, "gameId": "2025020031", "date": "20251011" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 1, "gameId": "2024020566", "date": "20241228" } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "window": "2021–22 through October21, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked attempts", "coverageNote": "Observed saved encounters only; missing is unavailable, not zero. Not independently established as complete career coverage." }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481519", "goalieName": "Spencer Knight", "opponent": "MTL", "games": 4, "availableGames": 4, "shotsAgainst": 118.0, "goalsAgainst": 13.0, "savePct": 0.8898305084745762, "gaa": 3.269526337851055, "gsax": 0.5030000000000001, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020536", "date": "20251218", "goalieTeam": "CHI", "opponent": "MTL", "shotsAgainst": 34.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3563.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.275 }, { "gameId": "2025020031", "date": "20251011", "goalieTeam": "CHI", "opponent": "MTL", "shotsAgainst": 28.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3585.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.45 }, { "gameId": "2024020566", "date": "20241228", "goalieTeam": "FLA", "opponent": "MTL", "shotsAgainst": 25.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3566.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.261 }, { "gameId": "2021021020", "date": "20220324", "goalieTeam": "FLA", "opponent": "MTL", "shotsAgainst": 31.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.517 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "coverageNote": "Last five observed goalie/team regular-season appearances. Historical coverage is not independently established as career-complete." }, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.570579665971033, "attemptProjection": 1.4502878825397392, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261021", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 16.0, "sog": 7.0, "seconds": 5246.0, "expectedMinutes": 17.486666666666668, "projectedAttempts": 3.2, "onNet": 0.4055973915068706, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0621717863909321, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0519965736844064 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 49.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.15532407407407406, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.425764192139738, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.938442005242464, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.067787892452511 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.510433774255386, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.510433774255386, "baseline": 1.0256410256410255, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 39.0, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.3165166748096417, "adjustedSOG": 1.284328050076574, "reductionPct": 2.4449842033122837, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.510433774255386, "afterPlayerForm": 1.510433774255386, "afterRecentDefense": 1.4658577555234737, "afterRecentZones": 1.5010862194602876, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.4567860663669396, "adjusted": 1.4567860663669396, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9704879356568364, "oldChartFactor": 1.0914838706956516, "newChartFactor": 1.0784915908255495, "playerRecentAttempts": 16.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 87.43333333333334, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.0, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.860962222987714, "defenseRecentMinutes": 241.91666666666666, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.8166666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0243821773082225, "defenseRecentMinutes": 25.916666666666668, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.284328050076574, "adjustedSOG": 1.2586414890750424, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.0425531914893617, "goalHistoryGoals": 2.0, "goalHistoryShots": 47.0, "goalExpected": 0.050487437834229605, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.050487437834229605, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.049234127724195643, "goalProbability": 0.049234127724195643, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05764509704015934, "modelSOG": 1.2586414890750424, "historyGames": 99, "seasonGames": { "2024": 55, "2025": 39, "2026": 5 }, "historyGoals": 8.0, "historyShots": 118.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.06779661016949153, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.0631399527707153, "goalieFactor": 1.0134476231189056, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 46.837012938996075, "btb": { "id": "8482087", "name": "Kaiden Guhle", "score": 46.837012938996075, "components": { "Goal model": 21.73913043478261, "SOG model": 37.68115942028985, "Unit attack": 45.45454545454545, "Opposing lines": 80.76923076923077, "Opposing pairs": 69.58041958041957, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 30.434782608695652, "Goalie": 62.67605633802817, "Team H2H": 59.40828402366864, "Goalie H2H": 53.1986531986532 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": true, "games": 8, "exactGames": 5, "individualGames": 3, "roleGames": 1, "exactMinutes": 62.3, "exactWeight": 0.5094031071136549, "individualWeight": 0.2538860103626943, "venueGames": 3, "venueFallback": false, "shares": [ 0.30516602971328144, 0.23285158244584445, 0.17003507327607242, 0.13820408091495628, 0.15374323364984538 ], "units": [ { "unit": 1, "names": [ "Roman Kantserov", "Connor Bedard", "Patrick Kane" ], "share": 0.30516602971328144, "xGA60": 3.034330357181087 }, { "unit": 2, "names": [ "Tyler Bertuzzi", "Anton Frondell", "Teuvo Teravainen" ], "share": 0.23285158244584445, "xGA60": 2.9573904009618985 }, { "unit": 4, "names": [ "Cole Smith", "Ryan Greene", "Jordan Greenway" ], "share": 0.17003507327607242, "xGA60": 2.1366414316797844 }, { "unit": 3, "names": [ "Oliver Moore", "Frank Nazar", "Ryan Donato" ], "share": 0.13820408091495628, "xGA60": 2.6268627576253714 } ], "otherShare": 0.15374323364984538, "weightedXGA60": 2.808987725189518, "score": 80.76923076923077 }, "pair": { "available": true, "games": 8, "exactGames": 5, "individualGames": 3, "roleGames": 1, "exactMinutes": 62.3, "exactWeight": 0.5094031071136549, "individualWeight": 0.2538860103626943, "venueGames": 3, "venueFallback": false, "shares": [ 0.3337151033854844, 0.27754270768106304, 0.21447438748901682, 0.1742678014444358 ], "units": [ { "unit": 2, "names": [ "Wyatt Kaiser", "Artyom Levshunov" ], "share": 0.3337151033854844, "xGA60": 2.7395083310694384 }, { "unit": 1, "names": [ "Alex Vlasic", "Ian Cole" ], "share": 0.27754270768106304, "xGA60": 2.7281475578627203 }, { "unit": 3, "names": [ "Ethan Del Mastro", "Sam Rinzel" ], "share": 0.21447438748901682, "xGA60": 3.1610539346551283 } ], "otherShare": 0.1742678014444358, "weightedXGA60": 2.8798728174412145, "score": 69.58041958041957 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.7505512287450475, "unitPlayers": [ "Kaiden Guhle", "Alexandre Carrier" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 3, "goalieH2HShots": 4, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 40 } }, { "id": "8476981", "name": "Josh Anderson", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "CHI", "position": "R", "currentGP": 9, "currentSOG": 2.111111111111111, "priorSOG": 1.2361111111111112, "currentTOI": 13.955555555555556, "currentFiveTOI": 11.746296296296297, "ppShare": 0.004839419269687638, "rate": 1.4518495958067255, "fifty": 1.8787943831188167, "inputs": { "Player": "Josh Anderson", "Player_ID": "8476981", "Team": "MTL", "Opponent": "CHI", "Position": "R", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.1200016069739316, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.4120385587346616, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 9, "Prior_GP": 72, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 10.783540911240738, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.0950710725493815, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 30.681818181818183, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 11.608032407407407, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 11.746296296296297, "Current_PP_Share": 0.004839419269687638, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.017150326797385623, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 11.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2273.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 5, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.349074074074074, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.03710930750648339, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.021046992879372995, "Other_State_SOG": 0.2125, "Environment_Proxy": 1.1241623654244617, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.2361111111111112, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 2", "ppUnit": "PP assignment pending", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-23", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:35:35.615148+00:00", "priorGP": 72.0, "currentTotalSOG": 19.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.02037037037037037, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.11 SOG/game in 9 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 9 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 23 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 3.1270000000000002, "currentIXG": 0.34744444444444444, "priorTOI": 14.022453703703704, "priorPPTOI": 0.08148148148148147, "deploymentChange": -0.0668981481481481, "ppTOIChange": -0.0611111111111111, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020536", "date": "20251218", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 14.65 }, { "gameId": "2025020031", "date": "20251011", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 14.616666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024021285", "date": "20250414", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 16.0 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 1.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "CHI", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 275.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 30.555555555555557, "mostAllowedRank": 4, "fiveSogAllowed60": 29.037678778147054, "pkSogAllowed60": 51.98019801980198, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 47.0, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 88.0, "D": 70.0, "R": 50.0, "L": 67.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.777777777777779, "L": 7.444444444444445, "R": 5.555555555555555, "D": 7.777777777777778 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 30.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.8, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 30.555555555555557, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.555555555555555, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8481519", "team": "CHI", "name": "Spencer Knight", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-23T17:38:57.370Z", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-23", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.8878923766816144, "gaa": 3.589375448671931, "gsax": -1.0060000000000002, "goalsAllowed": 25.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 23.994, "shotsAgainst": 223.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0134476231189056, "factor": 1.0134476231189056, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter for October 23; Daily Faceoff confirmation.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.1446219508246797, "goalHistoryGoals": 33.0, "goalHistoryShots": 217.0, "goalExpected": 0.2547001440291917, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.2581252555744273, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.22485110385887797, "goalProbability": 0.22750153369231488, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.26504298334369125, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 9, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.761144436074964, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 10.783540911240738, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 11.746296296296297, "Current_PP_Share": 0.004839419269687638, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.349074074074074, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.021046992879372995, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0652555848758556, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0415262503506049, "Position_Factor": 0.9905286689152091, "Input_GP": 9, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 11.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2273.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.0950710725493815, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 30.681818181818183, "Prior_5v5_Min": 11.285416666666666, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.017150326797385623, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0152430255967788, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.382352941176471, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.25, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0415262503506049, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 11.214953271028037, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five saved meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. Dated 2024–2026 regular-season appearances.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020536", "date": "20251218", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 14.65 }, { "gameId": "2025020031", "date": "20251011", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 14.616666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024021285", "date": "20250414", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 16.0 }, { "gameId": "2024020616", "date": "20250103", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 14.333333333333334 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Chris Kreider", "Alex Newhook", "Josh Anderson" ], "lineupSource": "NHL.com projected lineup", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "rosterPosition": "R", "projectedPosition": "R", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:35:35.615148+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 29, "priorAttempts": 108, "fitPct": 8.767737958621098, "index": 108.7677379586211, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 11.23882503192848, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.6823628774928636, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 8 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 26.92209450830141, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.333228225851869, "currentAttempts": 8, "priorAttempts": 28 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 32.10727969348659, "opponentDeltaPct": 17.724165752730244, "currentAttempts": 8, "priorAttempts": 42 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 8.212005108556832, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.874621784366013, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 11 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 20.408684546615582, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.336952686487635, "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 16 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 1.1111111111111114, "opponentDeltaPct": -11.504840448330498, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 8.767737958621098, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October23 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported unit only. Expected PP minutes retain measured current-season deployment; no guessed transfer.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481519", "goalieName": "Spencer Knight", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8476981", "goals": 0, "sog": 7, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 4, "recordedAttempts": 8, "log": [ { "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2, "gameId": "2025020536", "date": "20251218" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1, "gameId": "2025020031", "date": "20251011" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2, "gameId": "2024020566", "date": "20241228" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 3, "gameId": "2021021020", "date": "20220324" } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "window": "2021–22 through October21, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked attempts", "coverageNote": "Observed saved encounters only; missing is unavailable, not zero. Not independently established as complete career coverage." }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481519", "goalieName": "Spencer Knight", "opponent": "MTL", "games": 4, "availableGames": 4, "shotsAgainst": 118.0, "goalsAgainst": 13.0, "savePct": 0.8898305084745762, "gaa": 3.269526337851055, "gsax": 0.5030000000000001, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020536", "date": "20251218", "goalieTeam": "CHI", "opponent": "MTL", "shotsAgainst": 34.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3563.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.275 }, { "gameId": "2025020031", "date": "20251011", "goalieTeam": "CHI", "opponent": "MTL", "shotsAgainst": 28.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3585.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.45 }, { "gameId": "2024020566", "date": "20241228", "goalieTeam": "FLA", "opponent": "MTL", "shotsAgainst": 25.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3566.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.261 }, { "gameId": "2021021020", "date": "20220324", "goalieTeam": "FLA", "opponent": "MTL", "shotsAgainst": 31.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.517 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "coverageNote": "Last five observed goalie/team regular-season appearances. Historical coverage is not independently established as career-complete." }, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 2.427777777777778, "attemptProjection": 2.157884157398838, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261021", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 33.0, "sog": 19.0, "seconds": 6343.0, "expectedMinutes": 11.746296296296297, "projectedAttempts": 3.666666666666667, "onNet": 0.5266809489180212, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0621717863909321, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0519965736844064 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 11.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.021046992879372995, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.49743589743589745, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.938442005242464, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.067787892452511 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 2.292830967588308, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 2.292830967588308, "baseline": 1.2361111111111112, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 72.0, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.8701430249974293, "adjustedSOG": 1.7970861592601672, "reductionPct": 3.9064854805617055, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 2.292830967588308, "afterPlayerForm": 2.2320869741607807, "afterRecentDefense": 2.2301529898379666, "afterRecentZones": 2.292830967588308, "afterDefenseAndZones": 2.2301529898379666, "adjusted": 2.1710695246928715, "playerFactor": 0.9735069901417894, "defenseFactor": 0.9726634982533106, "oldChartFactor": 1.25, "newChartFactor": 1.25, "playerRecentAttempts": 16.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 62.03333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.8262745672740299, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8712117732613771, "defenseRecentMinutes": 241.91666666666666, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.03333333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0243821773082225, "defenseRecentMinutes": 25.916666666666668, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.7970861592601672, "adjustedSOG": 1.761144436074964, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.16666666666666666, "goalHistoryGoals": 18.0, "goalHistoryShots": 108.0, "goalExpected": 0.24197493263445424, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.24197493263445424, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.21492414291133782, "goalProbability": 0.21492414291133782, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1284515841142347, "modelSOG": 1.761144436074964, "historyGames": 162, "seasonGames": { "2024": 81, "2025": 72, "2026": 9 }, "historyGoals": 33.0, "historyShots": 217.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.15207373271889402, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.1446219508246797, "goalieFactor": 1.0134476231189056, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 63.194187927453974, "btb": { "id": "8476981", "name": "Josh Anderson", "score": 63.194187927453974, "components": { "Goal model": 81.15942028985508, "SOG model": 71.01449275362319, "Unit attack": 66.66666666666667, "Opposing lines": 72.31404958677686, "Opposing pairs": 65.9090909090909, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 84.05797101449275, "Goalie": 62.67605633802817, "Team H2H": 37.472527472527474, "Goalie H2H": 45.39473684210526 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": true, "weightedXGA60": 2.7405761148248784, "games": 6, "exactGames": 3, "shares": [ 0.2994096310370864, 0.27215542739115856, 0.22803309595562532, 0.20040184561612975 ], "score": 72.31404958677686 }, "pair": { "available": true, "weightedXGA60": 2.8790338786446616, "games": 5, "exactGames": 2, "shares": [ 0.39471284622109964, 0.24218055623406026, 0.27073655193339186, 0.0923700456114482 ], "score": 65.9090909090909 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 3.0953885224685322, "unitPlayers": [ "Chris Kreider", "Alex Newhook", "Josh Anderson" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": 7, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 11 } }, { "id": "8484390", "name": "Roman Kantserov", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "MTL", "position": "L", "currentGP": 9, "currentSOG": 1.3333333333333333, "priorSOG": null, "currentTOI": 18.48148148148148, "currentFiveTOI": 14.624074074074075, "ppShare": 0.7625058438522674, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 1", "ppUnit": "PP1 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-23", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:35:35.615148+00:00", "priorGP": null, "currentTotalSOG": 12.0, "currentPPTOI": 3.0203703703703706, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.33 SOG/game in 9 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 9 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 23 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.594, "currentIXG": 0.1771111111111111, "priorTOI": null, "priorPPTOI": null, "deploymentChange": null, "ppTOIChange": null, "h2hLog": [], "h2hGames": 0, "h2hAvailableGames": 0, "h2hSOG": null, "opponentDefense": { "team": "MTL", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 237.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 26.333333333333332, "mostAllowedRank": 20, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.983070773571598, "pkSogAllowed60": 45.93967517401392, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 38.666666666666664, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 76.0, "D": 64.0, "R": 52.0, "L": 45.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 8.444444444444445, "L": 5.0, "R": 5.777777777777778, "D": 7.111111111111111 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 25.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 3, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27.333333333333332, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 26.333333333333332, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.0, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8484170", "team": "MTL", "name": "Jacob Fowler", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-23T17:12:10.576Z", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-23", "games": 4, "savePct": 0.9, "gaa": 2.163895011019836, "gsax": 2.1389999999999993, "goalsAllowed": 9.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 11.139, "shotsAgainst": 90.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9828963086689823, "factor": 0.9828963086689823, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter for October 23; Daily Faceoff confirmation.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.1415037987490217, "goalHistoryGoals": 3.0, "goalHistoryShots": 12.0, "goalExpected": 0.16774848529828112, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.16487936698449357, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.15443351965712998, "goalProbability": 0.1520040057680709, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.24295138890590706, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 9, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.1854698374268264, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.014562492085602, "Current_PP_SOG60": 2.2072348252605765, "Current_5v5_Min": 14.624074074074075, "Current_PP_Share": 0.7625058438522674, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.173148148148148, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 3.9445556940764983, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9711545151193198, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9819199317155711, "Position_Factor": 1.0025538171453592, "Input_GP": 9, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1631.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2139.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": null, "Prior_PP_SOG60": null, "Prior_5v5_Min": null, "Prior_PP_Share": null, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9941897998708845, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.062091503267974, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.9663599344023583, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.8906971013770393, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9607451897867217, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.8745932369633995, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 6.3840077381911975, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 2.9532403609516, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [], "h2hWindow": "Last five saved meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. Dated 2024–2026 regular-season appearances.", "h2hFullLog": [], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Roman Kantserov", "Connor Bedard", "Patrick Kane" ], "lineupSource": "NHL.com projected lineup", "isHome": true, "rosterPosition": "L", "projectedPosition": "L", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:35:35.615148+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/chicago-blackhawks/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-22T16:55:34.203Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 15, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": -1.121335519921388, "index": 98.87866448007861, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 26.666666666666668, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.711511602468903, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 13.333333333333334, "opponentDeltaPct": -5.805766108288097, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 33.33333333333333, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.5231164238779513, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 13.333333333333334, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.4830868449991215, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 13.333333333333334, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.49406869911976514, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.365981626756792, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 1, "playerPriorWeight": 0, "currentSeasonOnly": true }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": -3.6434299540986927, "index": 96.35657004590131, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.8191755597579373, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 50.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.365371878175409, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.116979926964163, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 50.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.921488030021976, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 19.17564972004449, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 88.51112253515706, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 1, "playerPriorWeight": 0, "currentSeasonOnly": true }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -1.121335519921388, "zonePPFit": -3.6434299540986927, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October23 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported unit only. Expected PP minutes retain measured current-season deployment; no guessed transfer.", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8484170", "goalieName": "Jacob Fowler", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8484390", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "window": "2021–22 through October21, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked attempts", "coverageNote": "Observed saved encounters only; missing is unavailable, not zero. Not independently established as complete career coverage." }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8484170", "goalieName": "Jacob Fowler", "opponent": "CHI", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "coverageNote": "Last five observed goalie/team regular-season appearances. Historical coverage is not independently established as career-complete." }, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.301155772580595, "attemptProjection": 1.2454615375521008, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261021", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 19.0, "sog": 11.0, "seconds": 7897.0, "expectedMinutes": 14.624074074074075, "projectedAttempts": 2.111111111111111, "onNet": 0.5158199060401012, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.916154770019487, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0295873524263528 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 3.0, "sog": 1.0, "seconds": 1631.0, "expectedMinutes": 3.9445556940764983, "projectedAttempts": 0.4353280349072775, "onNet": 0.5476505227737051, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9091960351585663, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0070808959552022 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.1007057701808305, "ppAdjusted": 0.1726028848855174, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.273308655066348, "baseline": null, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": null, "modelWeight": 1, "baselineWeight": 0, "applied": false, "reason": "No saved prior-season player average; existing projection retained." }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.273308655066348, "adjustedSOG": 1.1854698374268264, "reductionPct": 6.898470161969062, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.1007057701808305, "afterPlayerForm": 1.1007057701808305, "afterRecentDefense": 1.0292604818082574, "afterRecentZones": 1.1007057701808305, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.0292604818082574, "adjusted": 1.0292604818082574, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9350913838120104, "oldChartFactor": 0.9663599344023583, "newChartFactor": 0.9663599344023583, "playerRecentAttempts": 11.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 70.68333333333334, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.0780352200945655, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.6952186350633428, "defenseRecentMinutes": 244.7, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.1726028848855174, "afterPlayerForm": 0.1606697323430592, "afterRecentDefense": 0.16781123010962357, "afterRecentZones": 0.1726028848855174, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.16781123010962357, "adjusted": 0.1562093556185691, "playerFactor": 0.930863539445629, "defenseFactor": 0.9722388488519644, "oldChartFactor": 0.8906971013770393, "newChartFactor": 0.8906971013770393, "playerRecentAttempts": 1.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 16.266666666666666, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.5570355191256832, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8240542632130013, "defenseRecentMinutes": 33.28333333333333, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.1854698374268264, "adjustedSOG": 1.1854698374268264, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": null, "goalHistoryShots": null, "goalExpected": null, "goalExpectedAdjusted": null, "goalBaselineProbability": null, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": null }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12848425459890428, "modelSOG": 1.1854698374268264, "historyGames": 9, "seasonGames": { "2026": 9 }, "historyGoals": 3.0, "historyShots": 12.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.25, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.1415037987490217, "goalieFactor": 0.9828963086689823, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": 45.62877153974827, "btb": { "id": "8484390", "name": "Roman Kantserov", "score": 45.62877153974827, "components": { "Goal model": 56.52173913043478, "SOG model": 34.78260869565217, "Unit attack": 6.666666666666667, "Opposing lines": 42.04545454545455, "Opposing pairs": 52.7972027972028, "PP": 48.57142857142857, "Shot quality": 60.869565217391305, "Goalie": 37.32394366197183, "Team H2H": 50.0, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Team H2H unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": true, "weightedXGA60": 2.350953038481599, "games": 7, "exactGames": 3, "shares": [ 0.29297687982777665, 0.21671216310627706, 0.30526135155441075, 0.18504960551153554 ], "score": 42.04545454545455 }, "pair": { "available": true, "weightedXGA60": 2.583308202520541, "games": 8, "exactGames": 3, "shares": [ 0.32037978378799314, 0.32379761490153164, 0.21304328342879933, 0.14277931788167586 ], "score": 52.7972027972028 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.281685067381317, "unitPlayers": [ "Roman Kantserov", "Connor Bedard", "Patrick Kane" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 0, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 42 } }, { "id": "8482176", "name": "Wyatt Kaiser", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "MTL", "position": "D", "currentGP": 9, "currentSOG": 0.6666666666666666, "priorSOG": 0.974025974025974, "currentTOI": 19.42037037037037, "currentFiveTOI": 16.951851851851853, "ppShare": 0.02664796633941094, "rate": 0.886373459003463, "fifty": 0.8130527518945956, "inputs": { "Player": "Wyatt Kaiser", "Player_ID": "8482176", "Team": "CHI", "Opponent": "MTL", "Position": "D", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.0080862555289942, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 0.9216559533490333, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 9, "Prior_GP": 77, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.359624207996504, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.122093461702823, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 17.032659932659932, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 16.951851851851853, "Current_PP_Share": 0.02664796633941094, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.018606156110910765, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 57.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2139.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 6, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.173148148148148, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.12537343501324053, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.1378538777206379, "Other_State_SOG": 0.046753246753246755, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9555676582468344, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 0.974025974025974, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 2", "ppUnit": "PP assignment pending", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-23", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:35:35.615148+00:00", "priorGP": 77.0, "currentTotalSOG": 6.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.10555555555555556, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.67 SOG/game in 9 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 9 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 23 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.448, "currentIXG": 0.04977777777777778, "priorTOI": 19.613419913419914, "priorPPTOI": 0.08051948051948052, "deploymentChange": -0.19304954304954336, "ppTOIChange": 0.025036075036075037, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020536", "date": "20251218", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 17.083333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2025020031", "date": "20251011", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 18.8 }, { "gameId": "2024021285", "date": "20250414", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 19.083333333333332 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 0.6666666666666666, "opponentDefense": { "team": "MTL", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 237.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 26.333333333333332, "mostAllowedRank": 20, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.983070773571598, "pkSogAllowed60": 45.93967517401392, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 38.666666666666664, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 76.0, "D": 64.0, "R": 52.0, "L": 45.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 8.444444444444445, "L": 5.0, "R": 5.777777777777778, "D": 7.111111111111111 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 25.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 3, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27.333333333333332, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 26.333333333333332, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.111111111111111, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8484170", "team": "MTL", "name": "Jacob Fowler", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-23T17:12:10.576Z", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-23", "games": 4, "savePct": 0.9, "gaa": 2.163895011019836, "gsax": 2.1389999999999993, "goalsAllowed": 9.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 11.139, "shotsAgainst": 90.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9828963086689823, "factor": 0.9828963086689823, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter for October 23; Daily Faceoff confirmation.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.0638208456283157, "goalHistoryGoals": 10.0, "goalHistoryShots": 147.0, "goalExpected": 0.04624354031338312, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.045452605073809535, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.045190600707681265, "goalProbability": 0.04443510957380932, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.07554911338719453, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 9, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 0.7245836349881585, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.359624207996504, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 16.951851851851853, "Current_PP_Share": 0.02664796633941094, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.173148148148148, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.1378538777206379, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9711545151193198, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9819199317155711, "Position_Factor": 1.0001333630485962, "Input_GP": 9, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 57.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2139.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.122093461702823, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 17.221212121212123, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.018606156110910765, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9848286195916839, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.34640522875817, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.8771517244050775, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.8638441219183176, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9819199317155711, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 2.5795356835769563, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five saved meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. Dated 2024–2026 regular-season appearances.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020536", "date": "20251218", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 17.083333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2025020031", "date": "20251011", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 18.8 }, { "gameId": "2024021285", "date": "20250414", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 19.083333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2024020616", "date": "20250103", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 17.95 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Wyatt Kaiser", "Artyom Levshunov" ], "lineupSource": "NHL.com projected lineup", "isHome": true, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:35:35.615148+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 11, "priorAttempts": 111, "fitPct": -4.094942519830752, "index": 95.90505748016925, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 56.5110565110565, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.711511602468903, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 66 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 10.4995904995905, "opponentDeltaPct": -5.805766108288097, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 14 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 1.8018018018018018, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.5231164238779513, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 17.395577395577394, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.4830868449991215, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 18 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 6.1752661752661755, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.49406869911976514, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 7.616707616707617, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.365981626756792, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 6 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -4.094942519830752, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October23 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported unit only. Expected PP minutes retain measured current-season deployment; no guessed transfer.", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8484170", "goalieName": "Jacob Fowler", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8482176", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "window": "2021–22 through October21, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked attempts", "coverageNote": "Observed saved encounters only; missing is unavailable, not zero. Not independently established as complete career coverage." }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8484170", "goalieName": "Jacob Fowler", "opponent": "CHI", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "coverageNote": "Last five observed goalie/team regular-season appearances. Historical coverage is not independently established as career-complete." }, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.5758960812788784, "attemptProjection": 0.5573103589405521, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261021", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 13.0, "sog": 6.0, "seconds": 9154.0, "expectedMinutes": 16.951851851851853, "projectedAttempts": 1.4444444444444446, "onNet": 0.40903853713418187, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.916154770019487, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0295873524263528 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 57.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.1378538777206379, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.425764192139738, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9091960351585663, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0070808959552022 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.5666032201097153, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.5666032201097153, "baseline": 0.974025974025974, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 77.0, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.7295723216762189, "adjustedSOG": 0.7245836349881585, "reductionPct": 0.6837823393023856, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.5666032201097153, "afterPlayerForm": 0.5666032201097153, "afterRecentDefense": 0.5582887422962813, "afterRecentZones": 0.5666032201097153, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.5582887422962814, "adjusted": 0.5582887422962814, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.985325749098595, "oldChartFactor": 0.8771517244050775, "newChartFactor": 0.8771517244050775, "playerRecentAttempts": 8.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 79.86666666666666, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.175548991909593, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9310963862455485, "defenseRecentMinutes": 244.7, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9722388488519644, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.5666666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8240542632130013, "defenseRecentMinutes": 33.28333333333333, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.7245836349881585, "adjustedSOG": 0.7245836349881585, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.07407407407407407, "goalHistoryGoals": 6.0, "goalHistoryShots": 81.0, "goalExpected": 0.06565729325951578, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.06565729325951578, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.06354826237162592, "goalProbability": 0.06354826237162592, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05763748870193979, "modelSOG": 0.7245836349881585, "historyGames": 143, "seasonGames": { "2024": 57, "2025": 77, "2026": 9 }, "historyGoals": 10.0, "historyShots": 147.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.06802721088435375, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.0638208456283157, "goalieFactor": 0.9828963086689823, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 28.008241707261917, "btb": { "id": "8482176", "name": "Wyatt Kaiser", "score": 28.008241707261917, "components": { "Goal model": 5.797101449275362, "SOG model": 4.3478260869565215, "Unit attack": 0.0, "Opposing lines": 50.0, "Opposing pairs": 58.391608391608386, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 8.695652173913043, "Goalie": 37.32394366197183, "Team H2H": 44.065934065934066, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": true, "games": 8, "exactGames": 6, "individualGames": 2, "roleGames": 1, "exactMinutes": 66.45, "exactWeight": 0.5255041518386714, "individualWeight": 0.34264585045193097, "venueGames": 4, "venueFallback": false, "shares": [ 0.19575750260361366, 0.22804911183814117, 0.21149276368849973, 0.152624887985632, 0.2120757338841134 ], "units": [ { "unit": 1, "names": [ "Cole Caufield", "Oliver Kapanen", "Juraj Slafkovsky" ], "share": 0.19575750260361366, "xGA60": 2.393836441797616 }, { "unit": 3, "names": [ "Zack Bolduc", "Phillip Danault", "Alexandre Texier" ], "share": 0.22804911183814117, "xGA60": 1.4811345950049914 }, { "unit": 2, "names": [ "Chris Kreider", "Alex Newhook", "Josh Anderson" ], "share": 0.21149276368849973, "xGA60": 3.419916688602215 }, { "unit": 4, "names": [ "Kirby Dach", "Owen Beck", "Jake Evans" ], "share": 0.152624887985632, "xGA60": 2.466061001042222 } ], "otherShare": 0.2120757338841134, "weightedXGA60": 2.418146124189745, "score": 50.0 }, "pair": { "available": true, "games": 8, "exactGames": 6, "individualGames": 2, "roleGames": 1, "exactMinutes": 66.45, "exactWeight": 0.5255041518386714, "individualWeight": 0.34264585045193097, "venueGames": 4, "venueFallback": false, "shares": [ 0.3327316836274071, 0.30311497392228337, 0.2271363001721491, 0.13701704227816036 ], "units": [ { "unit": 1, "names": [ "Lane Hutson", "Noah Dobson" ], "share": 0.3327316836274071, "xGA60": 2.66866610905572 }, { "unit": 2, "names": [ "Kaiden Guhle", "Alexandre Carrier" ], "share": 0.30311497392228337, "xGA60": 2.6426590844163664 }, { "unit": 3, "names": [ "Arber Xhekaj", "Mike Matheson" ], "share": 0.2271363001721491, "xGA60": 2.4777575426949268 } ], "otherShare": 0.13701704227816036, "weightedXGA60": 2.5826192029316504, "score": 58.391608391608386 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 1.7309125566233718, "unitPlayers": [ "Wyatt Kaiser", "Artyom Levshunov" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 71 } }, { "id": "8478038", "name": "Devon Toews", "team": "COL", "opponent": "TBL", "position": "D", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 1.4, "priorSOG": 1.6911764705882353, "currentTOI": 20.648333333333333, "currentFiveTOI": 16.656666666666666, "ppShare": 0.29883192731992214, "rate": 1.4556326194581375, "fifty": 1.3751758823565365, "inputs": { "Player": "Devon Toews", "Player_ID": "8478038", "Team": "COL", "Opponent": "TBL", "Position": "D", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.3582856345454146, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.2219996249097513, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 10, "Prior_GP": 68, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.32259355613368, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.446335204270677, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 8.016329560215253, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 17.01768137254902, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 16.656666666666666, "Current_PP_Share": 0.29883192731992214, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.2411198680351906, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 921.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3082.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 5, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.795185185185185, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 1.3499324272382243, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 1.4329544307448268, "Other_State_SOG": 0.17882352941176471, "Environment_Proxy": 0.8844868901771036, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.6911764705882353, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 1", "ppUnit": "PP2 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-23", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:35:35.615148+00:00", "priorGP": 68.0, "currentTotalSOG": 14.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.535, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.40 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 23 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.871, "currentIXG": 0.0871, "priorTOI": 22.368872549019606, "priorPPTOI": 1.3208333333333333, "deploymentChange": -1.7205392156862729, "ppTOIChange": 0.21416666666666662, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020209", "date": "20251104", "team": "COL", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 23.966666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2024020334", "date": "20241125", "team": "COL", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 20.716666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2024020157", "date": "20241030", "team": "COL", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 23.6 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 3, "h2hSOG": 2.3333333333333335, "opponentDefense": { "team": "TBL", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 218.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 24.22222222222222, "mostAllowedRank": 29, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.310572168589594, "pkSogAllowed60": 47.9002079002079, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 36.333333333333336, "positionUnassignedSOG": 1.0, "positionTotals": { "L": 36.0, "R": 49.0, "D": 66.0, "C": 66.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.333333333333333, "L": 4.0, "R": 5.444444444444445, "D": 7.333333333333333 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 24.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.25, "positionSourceDifference": 1.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 24.22222222222222, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.333333333333333, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8476883", "team": "TBL", "name": "Andrei Vasilevskiy", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-23T17:44:29.480Z", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-23", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.8975903614457832, "gaa": 2.4556616643929057, "gsax": 1.495000000000001, "goalsAllowed": 17.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 18.495, "shotsAgainst": 166.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9911791106382869, "factor": 0.9911791106382869, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter for October 23; Daily Faceoff confirmation.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.05658910855570887, "goalHistoryGoals": 15.0, "goalHistoryShots": 267.0, "goalExpected": 0.08503608421036966, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.08428599031979668, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.08152085879106355, "goalProbability": 0.08083165474706715, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.06892040439964026, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.5026934754884205, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.32259355613368, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 16.656666666666666, "Current_PP_Share": 0.29883192731992214, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.795185185185185, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.4329544307448268, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.2, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9588832837562793, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0032616490671127, "Position_Factor": 1.0144938104754524, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 921.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3082.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.446335204270677, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 8.016329560215253, "Prior_5v5_Min": 17.860049019607843, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.2411198680351906, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9991571455328714, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.34640522875817, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.0571256824569446, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0562346793531694, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0032616490671127, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 3.970004411116012, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 3.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five saved meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. Dated 2024–2026 regular-season appearances.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020209", "date": "20251104", "team": "COL", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 23.966666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2024020334", "date": "20241125", "team": "COL", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 20.716666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2024020157", "date": "20241030", "team": "COL", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 23.6 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Devon Toews", "Cale Makar" ], "lineupSource": "NHL.com projected lineup", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:35:35.615148+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/colorado-avalanche/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-22T17:33:02.593Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 20, "priorAttempts": 140, "fitPct": 1.9041894152314853, "index": 101.90418941523149, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 73.14285714285714, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.515281930842562, "currentAttempts": 16, "priorAttempts": 88 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 10.857142857142858, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.609652563126957, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 17 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 10.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.85621916135625, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 14 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 2.571428571428571, "opponentDeltaPct": -12.897287560223589, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 9 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 2.2857142857142856, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.418201733515886, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 8 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 1.1428571428571428, "opponentDeltaPct": -11.722552252061064, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 12, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 1.9041894152314853, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October23 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported unit only. Expected PP minutes retain measured current-season deployment; no guessed transfer.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476883", "goalieName": "Andrei Vasilevskiy", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8478038", "goals": 1, "sog": 19, "shootingPct": 0.05263157894736842, "gamesWithAttempts": 7, "recordedAttempts": 24, "log": [ { "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 4, "gameId": "2025020209", "date": "20251104" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2, "gameId": "2024020334", "date": "20241125" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 3, "gameId": "2024020157", "date": "20241030" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2, "gameId": "2023020842", "date": "20240215" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2, "gameId": "2023020324", "date": "20231127" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 4, "gameId": "2022020862", "date": "20230214" }, { "goals": 1, "sog": 6, "attempts": 7, "gameId": "2021020477", "date": "20220210" } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "window": "2021–22 through October21, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked attempts", "coverageNote": "Observed saved encounters only; missing is unavailable, not zero. Not independently established as complete career coverage." }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476883", "goalieName": "Andrei Vasilevskiy", "opponent": "COL", "games": 5, "availableGames": 13, "shotsAgainst": 157.0, "goalsAgainst": 12.0, "savePct": 0.9235668789808917, "gaa": 2.4254674077817078, "gsax": 7.298, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020668", "date": "20260106", "goalieTeam": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "shotsAgainst": 33.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.223 }, { "gameId": "2025020209", "date": "20251104", "goalieTeam": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "shotsAgainst": 33.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3420.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.409 }, { "gameId": "2024020334", "date": "20241125", "goalieTeam": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "shotsAgainst": 25.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.459 }, { "gameId": "2024020157", "date": "20241030", "goalieTeam": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "shotsAgainst": 35.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.364 }, { "gameId": "2023020842", "date": "20240215", "goalieTeam": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "shotsAgainst": 31.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3591.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.843 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "coverageNote": "Last five observed goalie/team regular-season appearances. Historical coverage is not independently established as career-complete." }, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.4674816152238033, "attemptProjection": 1.3071199530832285, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261021", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 30.0, "sog": 12.0, "seconds": 9994.0, "expectedMinutes": 16.656666666666666, "projectedAttempts": 3.0, "onNet": 0.3971178479931682, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9399951775173531, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9886177218479464 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 921.0, "expectedMinutes": 1.4329544307448268, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.425764192139738, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9635919869864824, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0126481883452998 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.187300784153516, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.2 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.3873007841535159, "baseline": 1.6911764705882353, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 68.0, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.5088510587274038, "adjustedSOG": 1.5026934754884205, "reductionPct": 0.40809748605517004, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.187300784153516, "afterPlayerForm": 1.187300784153516, "afterRecentDefense": 1.1811752328907856, "afterRecentZones": 1.1831422418312851, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.177038145421877, "adjusted": 1.177038145421877, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9948407755267361, "oldChartFactor": 1.0571256824569446, "newChartFactor": 1.0501889319153788, "playerRecentAttempts": 17.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 87.11666666666666, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.0834640647917861, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.975764559752153, "defenseRecentMinutes": 244.35, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 9.05, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.04528859527121, "defenseRecentMinutes": 23.966666666666665, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.5026934754884205, "adjustedSOG": 1.5026934754884205, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.03875968992248062, "goalHistoryGoals": 5.0, "goalHistoryShots": 129.0, "goalExpected": 0.05641986897124564, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.05641986897124564, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.05485778332100097, "goalProbability": 0.05485778332100097, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05768202839945153, "modelSOG": 1.5026934754884205, "historyGames": 154, "seasonGames": { "2024": 76, "2025": 68, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 15.0, "historyShots": 267.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.056179775280898875, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.05658910855570887, "goalieFactor": 0.9911791106382869, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 39.08704073259634, "btb": { "id": "8478038", "name": "Devon Toews", "score": 39.08704073259634, "components": { "Goal model": 24.63768115942029, "SOG model": 59.42028985507246, "Unit attack": 72.72727272727273, "Opposing lines": 19.23076923076923, "Opposing pairs": 24.825174825174827, "PP": 56.42857142857143, "Shot quality": 17.391304347826086, "Goalie": 11.971830985915492, "Team H2H": 50.887573964497044, "Goalie H2H": 55.006587615283266 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": true, "games": 8, "exactGames": 7, "individualGames": 1, "roleGames": 1, "exactMinutes": 81.6, "exactWeight": 0.576271186440678, "individualWeight": 0.12589535024887702, "venueGames": 3, "venueFallback": false, "shares": [ 0.25084542714541164, 0.23183158338837706, 0.1778730219016444, 0.14647179068840352, 0.19297817687616337 ], "units": [ { "unit": 2, "names": [ "Gage Goncalves", "Brayden Point", "Jake Guentzel" ], "share": 0.25084542714541164, "xGA60": 2.0340078043220755 }, { "unit": 1, "names": [ "Brandon Hagel", "Anthony Cirelli", "Nikita Kucherov" ], "share": 0.23183158338837706, "xGA60": 1.9481706788671902 }, { "unit": 3, "names": [ "Ilya Mikheyev", "Zemgus Girgensons", "Pontus Holmberg" ], "share": 0.1778730219016444, "xGA60": 2.125408163982028 }, { "unit": 4, "names": [ "Jeffrey Viel", "Conor Geekie", "Dominic James" ], "share": 0.14647179068840352, "xGA60": 2.3268473115300212 } ], "otherShare": 0.19297817687616337, "weightedXGA60": 2.1052276899067044, "score": 19.23076923076923 }, "pair": { "available": true, "games": 8, "exactGames": 7, "individualGames": 1, "roleGames": 1, "exactMinutes": 81.6, "exactWeight": 0.576271186440678, "individualWeight": 0.12589535024887702, "venueGames": 3, "venueFallback": false, "shares": [ 0.3869414311580886, 0.2679704869660672, 0.25679250654422026, 0.08829557533162398 ], "units": [ { "unit": 1, "names": [ "J.J. Moser", "John Carlson" ], "share": 0.3869414311580886, "xGA60": 2.1330165084190638 }, { "unit": 2, "names": [ "Ryan McDonagh", "Erik Cernak" ], "share": 0.2679704869660672, "xGA60": 2.0098658998691765 }, { "unit": 3, "names": [ "Victor Hedman", "Max Crozier" ], "share": 0.25679250654422026, "xGA60": 2.8833997473734136 } ], "otherShare": 0.08829557533162398, "weightedXGA60": 2.2985938124556995, "score": 24.825174825174827 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 3.2143232909545847, "unitPlayers": [ "Devon Toews", "Cale Makar" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 3, "goalieH2HShots": 19, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 60 } }, { "id": "8480448", "name": "Parker Kelly", "team": "COL", "opponent": "TBL", "position": "C", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 1.1, "priorSOG": 1.2682926829268293, "currentTOI": 12.813333333333333, "currentFiveTOI": 11.028333333333332, "ppShare": 0.0025957170668397143, "rate": 1.1556682498850948, "fifty": 1.1453028824768505, "inputs": { "Player": "Parker Kelly", "Player_ID": "8480448", "Team": "COL", "Opponent": "TBL", "Position": "C", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.1031864832416653, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.0651055217572547, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 10, "Prior_GP": 82, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.984585159437811, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.380616637126775, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 21.55688622754491, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 10.85050406504065, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 11.028333333333332, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0025957170668397143, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.006196355768543022, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 8.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3082.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 5, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.795185185185185, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.017626662831725776, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.012446944023842142, "Other_State_SOG": 0.13170731707317074, "Environment_Proxy": 0.8844868901771036, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.2682926829268293, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 4", "ppUnit": "PP assignment pending", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-23", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:35:35.615148+00:00", "priorGP": 82.0, "currentTotalSOG": 11.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.013333333333333332, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.10 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 23 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.983, "currentIXG": 0.0983, "priorTOI": 12.702642276422763, "priorPPTOI": 0.03394308943089431, "deploymentChange": 0.11069105691056969, "ppTOIChange": -0.020609756097560977, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020668", "date": "20260106", "team": "COL", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "toi": 11.333333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020209", "date": "20251104", "team": "COL", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 13.883333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020334", "date": "20241125", "team": "COL", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 10.85 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 0.6666666666666666, "opponentDefense": { "team": "TBL", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 218.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 24.22222222222222, "mostAllowedRank": 29, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.310572168589594, "pkSogAllowed60": 47.9002079002079, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 36.333333333333336, "positionUnassignedSOG": 1.0, "positionTotals": { "L": 36.0, "R": 49.0, "D": 66.0, "C": 66.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.333333333333333, "L": 4.0, "R": 5.444444444444445, "D": 7.333333333333333 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 24.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.25, "positionSourceDifference": 1.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 24.22222222222222, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.333333333333333, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8476883", "team": "TBL", "name": "Andrei Vasilevskiy", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-23T17:44:29.480Z", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-23", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.8975903614457832, "gaa": 2.4556616643929057, "gsax": 1.495000000000001, "goalsAllowed": 17.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 18.495, "shotsAgainst": 166.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9911791106382869, "factor": 0.9911791106382869, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter for October 23; Daily Faceoff confirmation.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.1364569802927084, "goalHistoryGoals": 30.0, "goalHistoryShots": 214.0, "goalExpected": 0.15410894718156765, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.15274956920882896, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.14282137127156316, "goalProbability": 0.14165534917214706, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.1166022099416103, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.129359207942274, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.984585159437811, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 11.028333333333332, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0025957170668397143, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.795185185185185, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.012446944023842142, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9588832837562793, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0032616490671127, "Position_Factor": 0.985038993166415, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 8.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3082.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.380616637126775, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 21.55688622754491, "Prior_5v5_Min": 10.435569105691057, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.006196355768543022, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.894372357486514, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.437908496732026, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.8664673534809604, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0032616490671127, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 4.361370716510903, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five saved meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. Dated 2024–2026 regular-season appearances.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020668", "date": "20260106", "team": "COL", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "toi": 11.333333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020209", "date": "20251104", "team": "COL", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 13.883333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020334", "date": "20241125", "team": "COL", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 10.85 }, { "gameId": "2024020157", "date": "20241030", "team": "COL", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 15.0 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Taylor Makar", "Parker Kelly", "Logan O'Connor" ], "lineupSource": "NHL.com projected lineup", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "projectedPosition": "C", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 16, "priorAttempts": 132, "fitPct": -4.451088217301319, "index": 95.54891178269868, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 21.25, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.515281930842562, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 33 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 26.93181818181818, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.609652563126957, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 27 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 23.37121212121212, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.85621916135625, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 40 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 11.742424242424242, "opponentDeltaPct": -12.897287560223589, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 14 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 1.8181818181818183, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.418201733515886, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 14.886363636363637, "opponentDeltaPct": -11.722552252061064, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 12 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -4.451088217301319, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October23 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported unit only. Expected PP minutes retain measured current-season deployment; no guessed transfer.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476883", "goalieName": "Andrei Vasilevskiy", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8480448", "goals": 1, "sog": 5, "shootingPct": 0.2, "gamesWithAttempts": 3, "recordedAttempts": 7, "log": [ { "goals": 1, "sog": 2, "attempts": 3, "gameId": "2025020668", "date": "20260106" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 3, "gameId": "2024020157", "date": "20241030" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1, "gameId": "2023020875", "date": "20240219" } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "window": "2021–22 through October21, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked attempts", "coverageNote": "Observed saved encounters only; missing is unavailable, not zero. Not independently established as complete career coverage." }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476883", "goalieName": "Andrei Vasilevskiy", "opponent": "COL", "games": 5, "availableGames": 13, "shotsAgainst": 157.0, "goalsAgainst": 12.0, "savePct": 0.9235668789808917, "gaa": 2.4254674077817078, "gsax": 7.298, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020668", "date": "20260106", "goalieTeam": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "shotsAgainst": 33.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.223 }, { "gameId": "2025020209", "date": "20251104", "goalieTeam": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "shotsAgainst": 33.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3420.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.409 }, { "gameId": "2024020334", "date": "20241125", "goalieTeam": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "shotsAgainst": 25.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.459 }, { "gameId": "2024020157", "date": "20241030", "goalieTeam": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "shotsAgainst": 35.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.364 }, { "gameId": "2023020842", "date": "20240215", "goalieTeam": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "shotsAgainst": 31.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3591.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.843 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "coverageNote": "Last five observed goalie/team regular-season appearances. Historical coverage is not independently established as career-complete." }, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.9349999999999998, "attemptProjection": 1.2103563734842826, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261021", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 28.0, "sog": 11.0, "seconds": 6617.0, "expectedMinutes": 11.028333333333332, "projectedAttempts": 2.8, "onNet": 0.46515876977304516, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9399951775173531, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9886177218479464 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 8.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.012446944023842142, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.5294117647058824, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9635919869864824, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0126481883452998 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.072678186742141, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.072678186742141, "baseline": 1.2682926829268293, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 82.0, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.1509239852160165, "adjustedSOG": 1.129359207942274, "reductionPct": 1.8736925766383195, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.072678186742141, "afterPlayerForm": 1.036736891285904, "afterRecentDefense": 1.072678186742141, "afterRecentZones": 1.072678186742141, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.072678186742141, "adjusted": 1.036736891285904, "playerFactor": 0.9664938693631916, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.8664673534809604, "newChartFactor": 0.8649580638784846, "playerRecentAttempts": 11.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 56.31666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.7693210163615608, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.1463936017832808, "defenseRecentMinutes": 244.35, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.0, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.04528859527121, "defenseRecentMinutes": 23.966666666666665, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.129359207942274, "adjustedSOG": 1.129359207942274, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.19130434782608696, "goalHistoryGoals": 22.0, "goalHistoryShots": 115.0, "goalExpected": 0.22108436084758334, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.22108436084758334, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.1983509503557463, "goalProbability": 0.1983509503557463, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12847491811910436, "modelSOG": 1.129359207942274, "historyGames": 172, "seasonGames": { "2024": 80, "2025": 82, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 30.0, "historyShots": 214.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.14018691588785046, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.1364569802927084, "goalieFactor": 0.9911791106382869, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 42.93115400252293, "btb": { "id": "8480448", "name": "Parker Kelly", "score": 42.93115400252293, "components": { "Goal model": 53.6231884057971, "SOG model": 27.536231884057973, "Unit attack": 53.333333333333336, "Opposing lines": 37.603305785123965, "Opposing pairs": 35.714285714285715, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 18.840579710144926, "Goalie": 11.971830985915492, "Team H2H": 56.81318681318681, "Goalie H2H": 52.27272727272727 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": true, "weightedXGA60": 2.1028813849047854, "games": 6, "exactGames": 0, "shares": [ 0.25080759360550986, 0.272460299722889, 0.2442614175386674, 0.23247068913293373 ], "score": 37.603305785123965 }, "pair": { "available": true, "weightedXGA60": 2.277851764587307, "games": 2, "exactGames": 0, "shares": [ 0.4143536856727569, 0.2640501452433857, 0.22803988276018178, 0.09355628632367562 ], "score": 35.714285714285715 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.727062095444662, "unitPlayers": [ "Taylor Makar", "Parker Kelly", "Logan O'Connor" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": 5, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 52 }, "rosterPosition": "C", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:35:35.615148+00:00" }, { "id": "8476878", "name": "Zemgus Girgensons", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "position": "C", "currentGP": 9, "currentSOG": 1.3333333333333333, "priorSOG": 1.2027027027027026, "currentTOI": 14.116666666666667, "currentFiveTOI": 12.024074074074074, "ppShare": 0.00715258855585831, "rate": 1.1787051971620324, "fifty": 1.1704173496630683, "inputs": { "Player": "Zemgus Girgensons", "Player_ID": "8476878", "Team": "TBL", "Opponent": "COL", "Position": "C", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.0364354329237544, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.0007122837400262, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 9, "Prior_GP": 74, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.544432465732327, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.472200861961051, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 12.19516266266266, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 12.024074074074074, "Current_PP_Share": 0.00715258855585831, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.008047166087609034, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 21.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2936.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 5, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.612685185185185, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.03423056062564455, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.03299263926733273, "Other_State_SOG": 0.07087087087087088, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9914667421548949, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.2027027027027026, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 3", "ppUnit": "PP assignment pending", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-23", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:35:35.615148+00:00", "priorGP": 74.0, "currentTotalSOG": 12.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.03888888888888889, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.33 SOG/game in 9 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 9 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 23 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.1760000000000002, "currentIXG": 0.13066666666666668, "priorTOI": 14.767567567567568, "priorPPTOI": 0.040765765765765766, "deploymentChange": -0.6509009009009006, "ppTOIChange": -0.0018768768768768762, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020668", "date": "20260106", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "toi": 14.666666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020209", "date": "20251104", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 15.516666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020334", "date": "20241125", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 15.95 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 0.6666666666666666, "opponentDefense": { "team": "COL", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 273.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.3, "mostAllowedRank": 16, "fiveSogAllowed60": 27.02393375298751, "pkSogAllowed60": 47.51429828420589, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 40.2, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 100.0, "R": 60.0, "L": 45.0, "D": 68.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.0, "L": 4.5, "R": 6.0, "D": 6.8 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 29.0, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.8, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.3, "oppPosSogAllowed": 10.0, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8478406", "team": "COL", "name": "Mackenzie Blackwood", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-23T16:26:32.640Z", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-23", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.8888888888888888, "gaa": 2.897734132893307, "gsax": -2.4450000000000003, "goalsAllowed": 20.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 17.555, "shotsAgainst": 180.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0252999843886221, "factor": 1.0252999843886221, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter for October 23; Daily Faceoff confirmation.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.08753560772933237, "goalHistoryGoals": 12.0, "goalHistoryShots": 184.0, "goalExpected": 0.11139670560452426, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.11421504051726267, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.1054162078770428, "goalProbability": 0.10793389510134967, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.25176872243068693, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 9, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.2725873332481161, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.544432465732327, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 12.024074074074074, "Current_PP_Share": 0.00715258855585831, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.612685185185185, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.03299263926733273, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.2222222222222222, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0289555868427727, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9996701327073623, "Position_Factor": 0.9858567030129328, "Input_GP": 9, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 21.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2936.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.472200861961051, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 12.59436936936937, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.008047166087609034, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0297783933518005, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.437908496732026, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.9841474709096109, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.013453801414537, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9996701327073623, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.1154529307282415, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five saved meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. Dated 2024–2026 regular-season appearances.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020668", "date": "20260106", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "toi": 14.666666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020209", "date": "20251104", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 15.516666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020334", "date": "20241125", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 15.95 }, { "gameId": "2024020157", "date": "20241030", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 7.95 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Ilya Mikheyev", "Zemgus Girgensons", "Pontus Holmberg" ], "lineupSource": "NHL.com projected lineup", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "rosterPosition": "L", "projectedPosition": "C", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:35:35.615148+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 14, "priorAttempts": 137, "fitPct": -0.5284176363463047, "index": 99.4715823636537, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 21.230448383733055, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.604370751696635, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 14 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 28.72784150156413, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.2025641924569896, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 25 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 26.089676746611058, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.26262818174886604, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 60 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 12.367049009384775, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.0950116912032684, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 13 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 4.087591240875913, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.044692588641311204, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 14 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 7.497393117831075, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.6551158457307906, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 11 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -0.5284176363463047, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October23 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported unit only. Expected PP minutes retain measured current-season deployment; no guessed transfer.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478406", "goalieName": "Mackenzie Blackwood", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8476878", "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 2, "log": [ { "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2, "gameId": "2024020413", "date": "20241205" } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "window": "2021–22 through October21, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked attempts", "coverageNote": "Observed saved encounters only; missing is unavailable, not zero. Not independently established as complete career coverage." }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478406", "goalieName": "Mackenzie Blackwood", "opponent": "TBL", "games": 4, "availableGames": 4, "shotsAgainst": 99.0, "goalsAgainst": 15.0, "savePct": 0.8484848484848485, "gaa": 4.800426704595964, "gsax": -3.8269999999999995, "log": [ { "gameId": "2024020413", "date": "20241205", "goalieTeam": "SJS", "opponent": "TBL", "shotsAgainst": 23.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 2400.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.907 }, { "gameId": "2023021108", "date": "20240321", "goalieTeam": "SJS", "opponent": "TBL", "shotsAgainst": 21.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.592 }, { "gameId": "2023020106", "date": "20231026", "goalieTeam": "SJS", "opponent": "TBL", "shotsAgainst": 21.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 1649.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.962 }, { "gameId": "2021020264", "date": "20211120", "goalieTeam": "NJD", "opponent": "TBL", "shotsAgainst": 34.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.712 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "coverageNote": "Last five observed goalie/team regular-season appearances. Historical coverage is not independently established as career-complete." }, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.3482820015717074, "attemptProjection": 1.3766427392060363, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261021", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 21.0, "sog": 10.0, "seconds": 6493.0, "expectedMinutes": 12.024074074074074, "projectedAttempts": 2.3333333333333335, "onNet": 0.487205260799535, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0290266956001277, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9868443082842028 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 21.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.03299263926733273, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.5605095541401274, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9649306914974484, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9896116972997503 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.1402401481666495, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.2222222222222222 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.3624623703888719, "baseline": 1.2027027027027026, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 74.0, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.2985585033144043, "adjustedSOG": 1.2985585033144043, "reductionPct": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.1402401481666495, "afterPlayerForm": 1.1402401481666495, "afterRecentDefense": 1.1402401481666495, "afterRecentZones": 1.1402401481666495, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.1402401481666495, "adjusted": 1.1402401481666495, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.9841474709096109, "newChartFactor": 0.9841474709096109, "playerRecentAttempts": 17.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 65.75, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.332379745307502, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0595533498759306, "defenseRecentMinutes": 251.61666666666667, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.016666666666666666, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.594204503506829, "defenseRecentMinutes": 15.05, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.2985585033144043, "adjustedSOG": 1.2725873332481161, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.09900990099009901, "goalHistoryGoals": 10.0, "goalHistoryShots": 101.0, "goalExpected": 0.11670348486752796, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.11670348486752796, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.1101509922546177, "goalProbability": 0.1101509922546177, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12860112595130394, "modelSOG": 1.2725873332481161, "historyGames": 165, "seasonGames": { "2024": 82, "2025": 74, "2026": 9 }, "historyGoals": 12.0, "historyShots": 184.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.06521739130434782, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.08753560772933237, "goalieFactor": 1.0252999843886221, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 47.032956327200054, "btb": { "id": "8476878", "name": "Zemgus Girgensons", "score": 47.032956327200054, "components": { "Goal model": 37.68115942028985, "SOG model": 39.130434782608695, "Unit attack": 13.333333333333334, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 39.130434782608695, "Goalie": 88.02816901408451, "Team H2H": 56.37362637362637, "Goalie H2H": 50.34965034965035 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.290971757770505, "unitPlayers": [ "Ilya Mikheyev", "Zemgus Girgensons", "Pontus Holmberg" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": 2, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 39 } }, { "id": "8477479", "name": "Tyler Bertuzzi", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "MTL", "position": "L", "currentGP": 9, "currentSOG": 1.1111111111111112, "priorSOG": 2.08974358974359, "currentTOI": 17.474074074074075, "currentFiveTOI": 13.474074074074075, "ppShare": 0.7428705002337541, "rate": 1.9732768793120286, "fifty": 1.651488194744643, "inputs": { "Player": "Tyler Bertuzzi", "Player_ID": "8477479", "Team": "CHI", "Opponent": "MTL", "Position": "L", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 2.104061714862064, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.683615189784568, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 9, "Prior_GP": 78, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.463441451346894, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.850316233309909, "Current_PP_SOG60": 4.531151667715545, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 10.663360198388096, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 13.81031339031339, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 13.474074074074075, "Current_PP_Share": 0.7428705002337541, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.7167813880679987, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1589.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2139.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 6, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.173148148148148, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 3.8024902999120016, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 3.842979152598134, "Other_State_SOG": 0.11495726495726497, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9555676582468344, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 2.08974358974359, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 2", "ppUnit": "PP1 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-23", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:35:35.615148+00:00", "priorGP": 78.0, "currentTotalSOG": 10.0, "currentPPTOI": 2.9425925925925926, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.11 SOG/game in 9 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 9 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 23 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 2.059, "currentIXG": 0.2287777777777778, "priorTOI": 18.482264957264956, "priorPPTOI": 3.1019230769230766, "deploymentChange": -1.0081908831908812, "ppTOIChange": -0.1593304843304839, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020536", "date": "20251218", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 17.783333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2025020031", "date": "20251011", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 14.55 }, { "gameId": "2024021285", "date": "20250414", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "toi": 14.466666666666667 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 2.3333333333333335, "opponentDefense": { "team": "MTL", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 237.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 26.333333333333332, "mostAllowedRank": 20, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.983070773571598, "pkSogAllowed60": 45.93967517401392, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 38.666666666666664, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 76.0, "D": 64.0, "R": 52.0, "L": 45.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 8.444444444444445, "L": 5.0, "R": 5.777777777777778, "D": 7.111111111111111 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 25.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 3, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27.333333333333332, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 26.333333333333332, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.0, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8484170", "team": "MTL", "name": "Jacob Fowler", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-23T17:12:10.576Z", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-23", "games": 4, "savePct": 0.9, "gaa": 2.163895011019836, "gsax": 2.1389999999999993, "goalsAllowed": 9.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 11.139, "shotsAgainst": 90.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9828963086689823, "factor": 0.9828963086689823, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter for October 23; Daily Faceoff confirmation.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.17285570294925046, "goalHistoryGoals": 57.0, "goalHistoryShots": 304.0, "goalExpected": 0.25618451394963737, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.25180281309925595, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.22600085802281844, "goalProbability": 0.22260198433836434, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.3398873684454101, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 9, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.482071517332881, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.463441451346894, "Current_PP_SOG60": 4.531151667715545, "Current_5v5_Min": 13.474074074074075, "Current_PP_Share": 0.7428705002337541, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.173148148148148, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 3.842979152598134, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.1111111111111111, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9711545151193198, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9819199317155711, "Position_Factor": 1.0025538171453592, "Input_GP": 9, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1589.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2139.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.850316233309909, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 10.663360198388096, "Prior_5v5_Min": 14.594871794871796, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.7167813880679987, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9941897998708845, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.062091503267974, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.9849323723007258, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.9461980484941523, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9792097181040141, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9290907231667848, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 4.401746724890829, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 3.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five saved meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. Dated 2024–2026 regular-season appearances.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020536", "date": "20251218", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 17.783333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2025020031", "date": "20251011", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 14.55 }, { "gameId": "2024021285", "date": "20250414", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "toi": 14.466666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020616", "date": "20250103", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "toi": 16.8 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Tyler Bertuzzi", "Anton Frondell", "Teuvo Teravainen" ], "lineupSource": "NHL.com projected lineup", "isHome": true, "rosterPosition": "L", "projectedPosition": "L", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:35:35.615148+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/chicago-blackhawks/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-22T16:55:34.203Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 11, "priorAttempts": 169, "fitPct": -0.5022542566424733, "index": 99.49774574335753, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 8.768154922001075, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.711511602468903, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 14 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 7.337278106508877, "opponentDeltaPct": -5.805766108288097, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 31 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 37.67616998386229, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.5231164238779513, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 67 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 23.464228079612692, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.4830868449991215, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 30 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 15.169445938676706, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.49406869911976514, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 18 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 7.584722969338353, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.365981626756792, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 9 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 63, "fitPct": -1.793398383528256, "index": 98.20660161647174, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 0.6349206349206349, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.8191755597579373, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 2.5396825396825395, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.365371878175409, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 92.38095238095238, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.116979926964163, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 51 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 2.5396825396825395, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.921488030021976, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 1.9047619047619049, "opponentDeltaPct": 19.17564972004449, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 88.51112253515706, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -0.5022542566424733, "zonePPFit": -1.793398383528256, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October23 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported unit only. Expected PP minutes retain measured current-season deployment; no guessed transfer.", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8484170", "goalieName": "Jacob Fowler", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8477479", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "window": "2021–22 through October21, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked attempts", "coverageNote": "Observed saved encounters only; missing is unavailable, not zero. Not independently established as complete career coverage." }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8484170", "goalieName": "Jacob Fowler", "opponent": "CHI", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "coverageNote": "Last five observed goalie/team regular-season appearances. Historical coverage is not independently established as career-complete." }, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.1423581621476409, "attemptProjection": 1.1309059015133902, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261021", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 14.0, "sog": 7.0, "seconds": 7276.0, "expectedMinutes": 13.474074074074075, "projectedAttempts": 1.5555555555555556, "onNet": 0.4936183361994841, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.916154770019487, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0295873524263528 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 4.0, "sog": 2.0, "seconds": 1589.0, "expectedMinutes": 3.842979152598134, "projectedAttempts": 0.5804373798763701, "onNet": 0.5560273649445624, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9091960351585663, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0070808959552022 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.7429457499247931, "ppAdjusted": 0.28257517079461125, "other": 0.1111111111111111 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.1366320318305156, "baseline": 2.08974358974359, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 78.0, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.5178766549957454, "adjustedSOG": 1.482071517332881, "reductionPct": 2.3588963928669715, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.7429457499247931, "afterPlayerForm": 0.7429457499247931, "afterRecentDefense": 0.6947221693944265, "afterRecentZones": 0.7429457499247931, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.6947221693944265, "adjusted": 0.6947221693944265, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9350913838120104, "oldChartFactor": 0.9849323723007258, "newChartFactor": 0.9849323723007258, "playerRecentAttempts": 9.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 65.2, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.1956617002629273, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.6952186350633428, "defenseRecentMinutes": 244.7, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.28257517079461125, "afterPlayerForm": 0.28257517079461125, "afterRecentDefense": 0.27473055876750013, "afterRecentZones": 0.2788651391651519, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.27112352188687017, "adjusted": 0.27112352188687017, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9722388488519644, "oldChartFactor": 0.9461980484941523, "newChartFactor": 0.9201601365031972, "playerRecentAttempts": 3.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 15.616666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.2718783351120597, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8240542632130013, "defenseRecentMinutes": 33.28333333333333, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.482071517332881, "adjustedSOG": 1.482071517332881, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.19653179190751446, "goalHistoryGoals": 34.0, "goalHistoryShots": 173.0, "goalExpected": 0.38781164102086113, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.38781164102086113, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.3214598596439965, "goalProbability": 0.3214598596439965, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12833703991497192, "modelSOG": 1.482071517332881, "historyGames": 169, "seasonGames": { "2024": 82, "2025": 78, "2026": 9 }, "historyGoals": 57.0, "historyShots": 304.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.1875, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.17285570294925046, "goalieFactor": 0.9828963086689823, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 55.59103029548528, "btb": { "id": "8477479", "name": "Tyler Bertuzzi", "score": 55.59103029548528, "components": { "Goal model": 82.6086956521739, "SOG model": 55.072463768115945, "Unit attack": 0.0, "Opposing lines": 57.95454545454545, "Opposing pairs": 58.391608391608386, "PP": 48.57142857142857, "Shot quality": 74.6376811594203, "Goalie": 37.32394366197183, "Team H2H": 62.967032967032964, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": true, "weightedXGA60": 2.562894865507013, "games": 7, "exactGames": 5, "shares": [ 0.3762953945969206, 0.282908541572838, 0.14807429982511067, 0.19272176400513072 ], "score": 57.95454545454545 }, "pair": { "available": true, "weightedXGA60": 2.5891823970227765, "games": 8, "exactGames": 4, "shares": [ 0.3696519963408762, 0.29465630574074736, 0.21309376741048197, 0.12259793050789441 ], "score": 58.391608391608386 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.017057060514447, "unitPlayers": [ "Tyler Bertuzzi", "Anton Frondell", "Teuvo Teravainen" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 25 } }, { "id": "8478519", "name": "Anthony Cirelli", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "position": "C", "currentGP": 9, "currentSOG": 1.4444444444444444, "priorSOG": 1.7605633802816902, "currentTOI": 17.001851851851853, "currentFiveTOI": 11.88888888888889, "ppShare": 0.2970027247956403, "rate": 1.6700978841808933, "fifty": 1.6494572015623983, "inputs": { "Player": "Anthony Cirelli", "Player_ID": "8478519", "Team": "TBL", "Opponent": "COL", "Position": "C", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.6280422332431133, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.6693160816993478, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 9, "Prior_GP": 71, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.046728971962617, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.924152891016531, "Current_PP_SOG60": 12.385321100917432, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 6.557377049180328, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 12.088137715179968, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 11.88888888888889, "Current_PP_Share": 0.2970027247956403, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.22895630886910293, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 872.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2936.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 5, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.612685185185185, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 1.2758170602296963, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 1.3699800686244827, "Other_State_SOG": 0.34068857589984347, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9914667421548949, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.7605633802816902, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 1", "ppUnit": "PP2 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-23", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:35:35.615148+00:00", "priorGP": 71.0, "currentTotalSOG": 13.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.6148148148148147, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.44 SOG/game in 9 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 9 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 23 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 2.059, "currentIXG": 0.2287777777777778, "priorTOI": 17.31549295774648, "priorPPTOI": 1.1598591549295774, "deploymentChange": -0.3136411058946251, "ppTOIChange": 0.45495565988523734, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020668", "date": "20260106", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "toi": 14.083333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020209", "date": "20251104", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 18.366666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020334", "date": "20241125", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "toi": 20.316666666666666 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 1.6666666666666667, "opponentDefense": { "team": "COL", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 273.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.3, "mostAllowedRank": 16, "fiveSogAllowed60": 27.02393375298751, "pkSogAllowed60": 47.51429828420589, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 40.2, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 100.0, "R": 60.0, "L": 45.0, "D": 68.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.0, "L": 4.5, "R": 6.0, "D": 6.8 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 29.0, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.8, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.3, "oppPosSogAllowed": 10.0, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8478406", "team": "COL", "name": "Mackenzie Blackwood", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-23T16:26:32.640Z", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-23", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.8888888888888888, "gaa": 2.897734132893307, "gsax": -2.4450000000000003, "goalsAllowed": 20.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 17.555, "shotsAgainst": 180.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0252999843886221, "factor": 1.0252999843886221, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter for October 23; Daily Faceoff confirmation.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.16500426903211157, "goalHistoryGoals": 53.0, "goalHistoryShots": 299.0, "goalExpected": 0.24888641261433966, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.25518323496802264, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.22033147113491214, "goalProbability": 0.22522548083050628, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.48940096955941426, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 9, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.5083634749226018, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.046728971962617, "Current_PP_SOG60": 12.385321100917432, "Current_5v5_Min": 11.88888888888889, "Current_PP_Share": 0.2970027247956403, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.612685185185185, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.3699800686244827, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.1111111111111111, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0289555868427727, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9996701327073623, "Position_Factor": 1.0071306809533955, "Input_GP": 9, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 872.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2936.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.924152891016531, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 6.557377049180328, "Prior_5v5_Min": 12.553051643192488, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.22895630886910293, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0297783933518005, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.437908496732026, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.9844913762838865, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.9910349744421972, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0138079477383235, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9907080644182686, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 4.789622484616664, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 13.935483870967742, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five saved meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. Dated 2024–2026 regular-season appearances.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020668", "date": "20260106", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "toi": 14.083333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020209", "date": "20251104", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 18.366666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020334", "date": "20241125", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "toi": 20.316666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020157", "date": "20241030", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "toi": 19.25 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Brandon Hagel", "Anthony Cirelli", "Nikita Kucherov" ], "lineupSource": "NHL.com projected lineup", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "rosterPosition": "C", "projectedPosition": "C", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:35:35.615148+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/tampa-bay-lightning/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-22T18:13:31.663Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 15, "priorAttempts": 138, "fitPct": -0.5169541238704483, "index": 99.48304587612955, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 12.927536231884057, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.604370751696635, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 17 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 22.666666666666668, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.2025641924569896, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 23 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 46.84057971014493, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.26262818174886604, "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 65 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 9.507246376811596, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.0950116912032684, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 19 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 2.028985507246377, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.044692588641311204, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 6.028985507246378, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.6551158457307906, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 7 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 13, "fitPct": -0.2988341852600911, "index": 99.70116581473991, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 3.076923076923077, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.125139957052596, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 9.230769230769234, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.208159137665604, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 54.61538461538462, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.03906538797926373, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 8 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 30.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.5428724091186723, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 3.076923076923077, "opponentDeltaPct": 15.136821787266058, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -37.289476773404765, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -0.5169541238704483, "zonePPFit": -0.2988341852600911, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October23 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported unit only. Expected PP minutes retain measured current-season deployment; no guessed transfer.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478406", "goalieName": "Mackenzie Blackwood", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8478519", "goals": 1, "sog": 9, "shootingPct": 0.1111111111111111, "gamesWithAttempts": 4, "recordedAttempts": 14, "log": [ { "goals": 1, "sog": 3, "attempts": 3, "gameId": "2024020413", "date": "20241205" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 1, "gameId": "2023021108", "date": "20240321" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 4, "gameId": "2023020106", "date": "20231026" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 6, "gameId": "2021020264", "date": "20211120" } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "window": "2021–22 through October21, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked attempts", "coverageNote": "Observed saved encounters only; missing is unavailable, not zero. Not independently established as complete career coverage." }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478406", "goalieName": "Mackenzie Blackwood", "opponent": "TBL", "games": 4, "availableGames": 4, "shotsAgainst": 99.0, "goalsAgainst": 15.0, "savePct": 0.8484848484848485, "gaa": 4.800426704595964, "gsax": -3.8269999999999995, "log": [ { "gameId": "2024020413", "date": "20241205", "goalieTeam": "SJS", "opponent": "TBL", "shotsAgainst": 23.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 2400.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.907 }, { "gameId": "2023021108", "date": "20240321", "goalieTeam": "SJS", "opponent": "TBL", "shotsAgainst": 21.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.592 }, { "gameId": "2023020106", "date": "20231026", "goalieTeam": "SJS", "opponent": "TBL", "shotsAgainst": 21.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 1649.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.962 }, { "gameId": "2021020264", "date": "20211120", "goalieTeam": "NJD", "opponent": "TBL", "shotsAgainst": 34.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.712 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "coverageNote": "Last five observed goalie/team regular-season appearances. Historical coverage is not independently established as career-complete." }, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.405085405608772, "attemptProjection": 1.4517141862007519, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261021", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 21.0, "sog": 9.0, "seconds": 6420.0, "expectedMinutes": 11.88888888888889, "projectedAttempts": 2.3333333333333335, "onNet": 0.4828504794689792, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0290266956001277, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9868443082842028 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 4.0, "sog": 3.0, "seconds": 872.0, "expectedMinutes": 1.3699800686244827, "projectedAttempts": 0.3770587344838026, "onNet": 0.5457516339869282, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9649306914974484, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9896116972997503 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.078954960366836, "ppAdjusted": 0.23833372442681477, "other": 0.1111111111111111 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.4283997959047618, "baseline": 1.7605633802816902, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 71.0, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.5612652296555332, "adjustedSOG": 1.5391464029822468, "reductionPct": 1.4167244778881316, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.078954960366836, "afterPlayerForm": 1.0557905609525242, "afterRecentDefense": 1.078954960366836, "afterRecentZones": 1.078954960366836, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.078954960366836, "adjusted": 1.0557905609525242, "playerFactor": 0.9785307077077285, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.9844913762838865, "newChartFactor": 0.9844913762838865, "playerRecentAttempts": 9.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 54.016666666666666, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.8489443293516109, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0595533498759306, "defenseRecentMinutes": 251.61666666666667, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.23833372442681477, "afterPlayerForm": 0.22463341271898268, "afterRecentDefense": 0.23833372442681477, "afterRecentZones": 0.23833372442681477, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.23833372442681477, "adjusted": 0.22463341271898268, "playerFactor": 0.9425162689804772, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.9910349744421972, "newChartFactor": 0.9910349744421972, "playerRecentAttempts": 1.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 8.05, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.45134575569358176, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.594204503506829, "defenseRecentMinutes": 15.05, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.5391464029822468, "adjustedSOG": 1.5083634749226018, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.18840579710144928, "goalHistoryGoals": 26.0, "goalHistoryShots": 138.0, "goalExpected": 0.3146561231065451, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.3146561231065451, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.26996012504578715, "goalProbability": 0.26996012504578715, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12836703343812517, "modelSOG": 1.5083634749226018, "historyGames": 160, "seasonGames": { "2024": 80, "2025": 71, "2026": 9 }, "historyGoals": 53.0, "historyShots": 299.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.17725752508361203, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.16500426903211157, "goalieFactor": 1.0252999843886221, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 67.9577484351167, "btb": { "id": "8478519", "name": "Anthony Cirelli", "score": 67.9577484351167, "components": { "Goal model": 75.3623188405797, "SOG model": 60.869565217391305, "Unit attack": 100.0, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 44.285714285714285, "Shot quality": 74.6376811594203, "Goalie": 88.02816901408451, "Team H2H": 61.20879120879121, "Goalie H2H": 49.65331278890601 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 3.8074566757153727, "unitPlayers": [ "Brandon Hagel", "Anthony Cirelli", "Nikita Kucherov" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": 9, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 7 } }, { "id": "8480074", "name": "Alexandre Texier", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "CHI", "position": "R", "currentGP": 9, "currentSOG": 1.5555555555555556, "priorSOG": 1.4509803921568627, "currentTOI": 12.972222222222221, "currentFiveTOI": 11.514814814814816, "ppShare": 0.2798064232292125, "rate": 1.5704394716167063, "fifty": 1.5810484390194006, "inputs": { "Player": "Alexandre Texier", "Player_ID": "8480074", "Team": "MTL", "Opponent": "CHI", "Position": "L", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.177624559389872, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 0.9434504884912698, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 9, "Prior_GP": 51, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 7.526535863621743, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.460771971178314, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 7.25319006044325, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 11.720468409586058, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 11.514814814814816, "Current_PP_Share": 0.2798064232292125, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.20484093530460315, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 636.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2273.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 5, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.349074074074074, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 1.1190897230305963, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 1.2168988610255658, "Other_State_SOG": 0.011111111111111112, "Environment_Proxy": 1.1241623654244617, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.4509803921568627, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 3", "ppUnit": "PP2 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-23", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:35:35.615148+00:00", "priorGP": 51.0, "currentTotalSOG": 14.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.1777777777777778, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.56 SOG/game in 9 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 9 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 23 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.295, "currentIXG": 0.14388888888888887, "priorTOI": 13.653921568627451, "priorPPTOI": 0.973202614379085, "deploymentChange": -0.6816993464052299, "ppTOIChange": 0.20457516339869286, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020536", "date": "20251218", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 14.066666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020059", "date": "20251015", "team": "STL", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 13.866666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024021107", "date": "20250322", "team": "STL", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 15.883333333333333 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 2.3333333333333335, "opponentDefense": { "team": "CHI", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 275.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 30.555555555555557, "mostAllowedRank": 4, "fiveSogAllowed60": 29.037678778147054, "pkSogAllowed60": 51.98019801980198, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 47.0, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 88.0, "D": 70.0, "R": 50.0, "L": 67.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.777777777777779, "L": 7.444444444444445, "R": 5.555555555555555, "D": 7.777777777777778 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 30.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.8, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 30.555555555555557, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.555555555555555, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8481519", "team": "CHI", "name": "Spencer Knight", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-23T17:38:57.370Z", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-23", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.8878923766816144, "gaa": 3.589375448671931, "gsax": -1.0060000000000002, "goalsAllowed": 25.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 23.994, "shotsAgainst": 223.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0134476231189056, "factor": 1.0134476231189056, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter for October 23; Daily Faceoff confirmation.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.11702588802467985, "goalHistoryGoals": 15.0, "goalHistoryShots": 138.0, "goalExpected": 0.18980290607785014, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.1923553040256581, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.1728778613743827, "goalProbability": 0.1749863142735033, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.21084528991205942, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 9, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.6218881931305846, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 7.526535863621743, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 11.514814814814816, "Current_PP_Share": 0.2798064232292125, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.349074074074074, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.2168988610255658, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.1111111111111111, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0652555848758556, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0415262503506049, "Position_Factor": 0.9905286689152091, "Input_GP": 9, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 636.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2273.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.460771971178314, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 7.25319006044325, "Prior_5v5_Min": 12.200326797385621, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.20484093530460315, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0152430255967788, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.382352941176471, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.25, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.9932279369428534, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0344729689075571, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 7.809110629067245, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five saved meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. Dated 2024–2026 regular-season appearances.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020536", "date": "20251218", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 14.066666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020059", "date": "20251015", "team": "STL", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 13.866666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024021107", "date": "20250322", "team": "STL", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 15.883333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020592", "date": "20241231", "team": "STL", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "toi": 9.733333333333333 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Zack Bolduc", "Phillip Danault", "Alexandre Texier" ], "lineupSource": "NHL.com projected lineup", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "rosterPosition": "R", "projectedPosition": "R", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:35:35.615148+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/montreal-canadiens/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-22T16:05:24.999Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 19, "priorAttempts": 101, "fitPct": 8.613729447891842, "index": 108.61372944789184, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 30.036477331943722, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.6823628774928636, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 28 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 11.078686816050027, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.333228225851869, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 20 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 34.76810838978635, "opponentDeltaPct": 17.724165752730244, "currentAttempts": 8, "priorAttempts": 24 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 17.394476289734236, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.874621784366013, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 20 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 5.138092756644086, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.336952686487635, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 1.5841584158415842, "opponentDeltaPct": -11.504840448330498, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 8, "fitPct": -0.22573543523822082, "index": 99.77426456476178, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 10.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.4028975883336443, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 10.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 13.01574130857064, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 8.387003790885572, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 5.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -19.944089475898465, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 75.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.7605264681782984, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -44.57933713730726, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 8.613729447891842, "zonePPFit": -0.22573543523822082, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October23 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported unit only. Expected PP minutes retain measured current-season deployment; no guessed transfer.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481519", "goalieName": "Spencer Knight", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8480074", "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 2, "log": [ { "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2, "gameId": "2025020536", "date": "20251218" } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "window": "2021–22 through October21, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked attempts", "coverageNote": "Observed saved encounters only; missing is unavailable, not zero. Not independently established as complete career coverage." }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481519", "goalieName": "Spencer Knight", "opponent": "MTL", "games": 4, "availableGames": 4, "shotsAgainst": 118.0, "goalsAgainst": 13.0, "savePct": 0.8898305084745762, "gaa": 3.269526337851055, "gsax": 0.5030000000000001, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020536", "date": "20251218", "goalieTeam": "CHI", "opponent": "MTL", "shotsAgainst": 34.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3563.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.275 }, { "gameId": "2025020031", "date": "20251011", "goalieTeam": "CHI", "opponent": "MTL", "shotsAgainst": 28.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3585.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.45 }, { "gameId": "2024020566", "date": "20241228", "goalieTeam": "FLA", "opponent": "MTL", "shotsAgainst": 25.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3566.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.261 }, { "gameId": "2021021020", "date": "20220324", "goalieTeam": "FLA", "opponent": "MTL", "shotsAgainst": 31.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.517 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "coverageNote": "Last five observed goalie/team regular-season appearances. Historical coverage is not independently established as career-complete." }, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.7722222222222221, "attemptProjection": 1.9020444798861187, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261021", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 28.0, "sog": 13.0, "seconds": 6218.0, "expectedMinutes": 11.514814814814816, "projectedAttempts": 3.1111111111111116, "onNet": 0.483519471284561, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0621717863909321, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0519965736844064 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 2.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 636.0, "expectedMinutes": 1.2168988610255658, "projectedAttempts": 0.22960355868406904, "onNet": 0.47830374753451677, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.938442005242464, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.067787892452511 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.6709991679384686, "ppAdjusted": 0.05502307200459082, "other": 0.1111111111111111 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.8371333510541703, "baseline": 1.4509803921568627, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 51.0, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.6826721674952472, "adjustedSOG": 1.654987952174066, "reductionPct": 1.6452530597442894, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.6709991679384686, "afterPlayerForm": 1.6709991679384686, "afterRecentDefense": 1.625319896265402, "afterRecentZones": 1.6709991679384686, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.625319896265402, "adjusted": 1.625319896265402, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9726634982533106, "oldChartFactor": 1.25, "newChartFactor": 1.25, "playerRecentAttempts": 18.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 63.233333333333334, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.0535808419308683, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8712117732613771, "defenseRecentMinutes": 241.91666666666666, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.05502307200459082, "afterPlayerForm": 0.05456198480902163, "afterRecentDefense": 0.05502307200459081, "afterRecentZones": 0.05502307200459082, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.05502307200459081, "adjusted": 0.05456198480902162, "playerFactor": 0.9916201117318436, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.9932279369428534, "newChartFactor": 0.9932279369428534, "playerRecentAttempts": 1.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 5.883333333333334, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.9008498583569405, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0243821773082225, "defenseRecentMinutes": 25.916666666666668, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.654987952174066, "adjustedSOG": 1.6218881931305846, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.10227272727272728, "goalHistoryGoals": 9.0, "goalHistoryShots": 88.0, "goalExpected": 0.16061312777898135, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.16061312777898135, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.1483785239238566, "goalProbability": 0.1483785239238566, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12852161349873806, "modelSOG": 1.6218881931305846, "historyGames": 91, "seasonGames": { "2024": 31, "2025": 51, "2026": 9 }, "historyGoals": 15.0, "historyShots": 138.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.10869565217391304, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.11702588802467985, "goalieFactor": 1.0134476231189056, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 59.38587372934364, "btb": { "id": "8480074", "name": "Alexandre Texier", "score": 59.38587372934364, "components": { "Goal model": 60.869565217391305, "SOG model": 63.768115942028984, "Unit attack": 80.0, "Opposing lines": 67.35537190082644, "Opposing pairs": 70.45454545454545, "PP": 44.64285714285714, "Shot quality": 46.3768115942029, "Goalie": 62.67605633802817, "Team H2H": 58.13186813186813, "Goalie H2H": 50.43706293706294 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": true, "weightedXGA60": 2.723700673558638, "games": 6, "exactGames": 4, "shares": [ 0.2550934602621433, 0.2853291813104905, 0.2527042982637952, 0.20687306016357093 ], "score": 67.35537190082644 }, "pair": { "available": true, "weightedXGA60": 2.888436406104264, "games": 5, "exactGames": 2, "shares": [ 0.33841137071134697, 0.26385177189897746, 0.26299194776099843, 0.13474490962867705 ], "score": 70.45454545454545 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 3.140927639641678, "unitPlayers": [ "Zack Bolduc", "Phillip Danault", "Alexandre Texier" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": 2, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 20 } }, { "id": "8479542", "name": "Brandon Hagel", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "position": "L", "currentGP": 9, "currentSOG": 4.555555555555555, "priorSOG": 3.0140845070422535, "currentTOI": 21.538888888888888, "currentFiveTOI": 13.764814814814816, "ppShare": 0.6890326975476839, "rate": 3.181354834631611, "fifty": 3.585052623523506, "inputs": { "Player": "Brandon Hagel", "Player_ID": "8479542", "Team": "TBL", "Opponent": "COL", "Position": "L", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 3.0291740985061524, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 3.5345653664652468, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 9, "Prior_GP": 71, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 13.561146239741692, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 8.682436897052993, "Current_PP_SOG60": 10.677212061295107, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 11.746174617461746, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 13.898468961919665, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 13.764814814814816, "Current_PP_Share": 0.6890326975476839, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.4118525952699022, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2023.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2936.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 5, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.612685185185185, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 2.7947275506649345, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 3.1782909160863864, "Other_State_SOG": 0.5721439749608763, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9914667421548949, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 3.0140845070422535, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 1", "ppUnit": "PP1 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-23", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:35:35.615148+00:00", "priorGP": 71.0, "currentTotalSOG": 41.0, "currentPPTOI": 3.7462962962962965, "volumeNote": "Observed 4.56 SOG/game in 9 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 9 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 23 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 7.298, "currentIXG": 0.8108888888888889, "priorTOI": 19.760093896713617, "priorPPTOI": 2.0863849765258213, "deploymentChange": 1.7787949921752713, "ppTOIChange": 1.6599113197704751, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020668", "date": "20260106", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "toi": 17.65 }, { "gameId": "2025020209", "date": "20251104", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 22.35 }, { "gameId": "2024020334", "date": "20241125", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 22.7 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 3.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "COL", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 273.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.3, "mostAllowedRank": 16, "fiveSogAllowed60": 27.02393375298751, "pkSogAllowed60": 47.51429828420589, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 40.2, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 100.0, "R": 60.0, "L": 45.0, "D": 68.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.0, "L": 4.5, "R": 6.0, "D": 6.8 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 29.0, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.8, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.3, "oppPosSogAllowed": 4.5, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8478406", "team": "COL", "name": "Mackenzie Blackwood", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-23T16:26:32.640Z", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-23", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.8888888888888888, "gaa": 2.897734132893307, "gsax": -2.4450000000000003, "goalsAllowed": 20.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 17.555, "shotsAgainst": 180.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0252999843886221, "factor": 1.0252999843886221, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter for October 23; Daily Faceoff confirmation.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.15580697839339508, "goalHistoryGoals": 78.0, "goalHistoryShots": 483.0, "goalExpected": 0.5587686831600388, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.5729055221208388, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.4280871636171615, "goalProbability": 0.43611532318324486, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.8028159566083382, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 9, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 3.586287911631344, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 13.561146239741692, "Current_PP_SOG60": 10.677212061295107, "Current_5v5_Min": 13.764814814814816, "Current_PP_Share": 0.6890326975476839, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.612685185185185, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 3.1782909160863864, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.7777777777777778, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0289555868427727, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9996701327073623, "Position_Factor": 0.9858567030129328, "Input_GP": 9, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2023.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2936.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 8.682436897052993, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 11.746174617461746, "Prior_5v5_Min": 14.210328638497652, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.4118525952699022, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9444803098773402, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.062091503267974, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.9863835061429256, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.9925124412824542, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9316197995397677, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9921850438905391, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 14.691656590084643, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 9.287925696594428, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 4.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five saved meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. Dated 2024–2026 regular-season appearances.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020668", "date": "20260106", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "toi": 17.65 }, { "gameId": "2025020209", "date": "20251104", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 22.35 }, { "gameId": "2024020334", "date": "20241125", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 22.7 }, { "gameId": "2024020157", "date": "20241030", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 21.416666666666668 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Brandon Hagel", "Anthony Cirelli", "Nikita Kucherov" ], "lineupSource": "NHL.com projected lineup", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "rosterPosition": "L", "projectedPosition": "L", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:35:35.615148+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/tampa-bay-lightning/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-22T18:13:31.663Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 38, "priorAttempts": 238, "fitPct": -0.4538831285691458, "index": 99.54611687143085, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 23.184431667403803, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.604370751696635, "currentAttempts": 10, "priorAttempts": 44 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 26.275984077841663, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.2025641924569896, "currentAttempts": 11, "priorAttempts": 53 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 26.245024325519683, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.26262818174886604, "currentAttempts": 8, "priorAttempts": 81 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 10.685537372843875, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.0950116912032684, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 26 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 12.264484741264928, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.044692588641311204, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 26 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 1.3445378151260505, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.6551158457307906, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 8 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 12, "priorAttempts": 40, "fitPct": -0.24958529058486079, "index": 99.75041470941514, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 7.000000000000001, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.125139957052596, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 6.000000000000001, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.208159137665604, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 44.00000000000001, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.03906538797926373, "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 9 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 40.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.5428724091186723, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 15 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 3.0000000000000004, "opponentDeltaPct": 15.136821787266058, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -37.289476773404765, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -0.4538831285691458, "zonePPFit": -0.24958529058486079, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October23 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported unit only. Expected PP minutes retain measured current-season deployment; no guessed transfer.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478406", "goalieName": "Mackenzie Blackwood", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8479542", "goals": 1, "sog": 4, "shootingPct": 0.25, "gamesWithAttempts": 2, "recordedAttempts": 5, "log": [ { "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 1, "gameId": "2024020413", "date": "20241205" }, { "goals": 1, "sog": 4, "attempts": 4, "gameId": "2023020106", "date": "20231026" } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "window": "2021–22 through October21, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked attempts", "coverageNote": "Observed saved encounters only; missing is unavailable, not zero. Not independently established as complete career coverage." }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478406", "goalieName": "Mackenzie Blackwood", "opponent": "TBL", "games": 4, "availableGames": 4, "shotsAgainst": 99.0, "goalsAgainst": 15.0, "savePct": 0.8484848484848485, "gaa": 4.800426704595964, "gsax": -3.8269999999999995, "log": [ { "gameId": "2024020413", "date": "20241205", "goalieTeam": "SJS", "opponent": "TBL", "shotsAgainst": 23.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 2400.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.907 }, { "gameId": "2023021108", "date": "20240321", "goalieTeam": "SJS", "opponent": "TBL", "shotsAgainst": 21.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.592 }, { "gameId": "2023020106", "date": "20231026", "goalieTeam": "SJS", "opponent": "TBL", "shotsAgainst": 21.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 1649.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.962 }, { "gameId": "2021020264", "date": "20211120", "goalieTeam": "NJD", "opponent": "TBL", "shotsAgainst": 34.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.712 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "coverageNote": "Last five observed goalie/team regular-season appearances. Historical coverage is not independently established as career-complete." }, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 4.23731854299174, "attemptProjection": 4.346817389415222, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261021", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 49.0, "sog": 28.0, "seconds": 7433.0, "expectedMinutes": 13.764814814814816, "projectedAttempts": 5.4444444444444455, "onNet": 0.5312280153208786, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0290266956001277, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9868443082842028 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 13.0, "sog": 6.0, "seconds": 2023.0, "expectedMinutes": 3.1782909160863864, "projectedAttempts": 1.2254408870723585, "onNet": 0.5400869477302599, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9649306914974484, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9896116972997503 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 2.917706225888206, "ppAdjusted": 0.5965839625374973, "other": 0.7777777777777778 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 4.292067966203481, "baseline": 3.0140845070422535, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 71.0, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 3.7808745825389902, "adjustedSOG": 3.6594774608483105, "reductionPct": 3.2108211748498983, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 2.917706225888206, "afterPlayerForm": 2.8391045472945104, "afterRecentDefense": 2.791011850144087, "afterRecentZones": 2.9172275333561455, "afterDefenseAndZones": 2.7905539436839706, "adjusted": 2.715377689737073, "playerFactor": 0.9730604548544748, "defenseFactor": 0.9565774050108315, "oldChartFactor": 0.9863835061429256, "newChartFactor": 0.9860576857841005, "playerRecentAttempts": 24.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 72.58333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.835970852175543, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.7977332170880559, "defenseRecentMinutes": 251.61666666666667, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.5965839625374973, "afterPlayerForm": 0.5965839625374973, "afterRecentDefense": 0.5965839625374973, "afterRecentZones": 0.5965839625374973, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.5965839625374973, "adjusted": 0.5965839625374973, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.9925124412824542, "newChartFactor": 0.9925124412824542, "playerRecentAttempts": 6.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 13.516666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.1512852129374942, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.594204503506829, "defenseRecentMinutes": 15.05, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 3.6594774608483105, "adjustedSOG": 3.586287911631344, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.16862745098039217, "goalHistoryGoals": 43.0, "goalHistoryShots": 255.0, "goalExpected": 0.5364637564280756, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.5364637564280756, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.415187359926904, "goalProbability": 0.415187359926904, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12835468403349318, "modelSOG": 3.586287911631344, "historyGames": 162, "seasonGames": { "2024": 82, "2025": 71, "2026": 9 }, "historyGoals": 78.0, "historyShots": 483.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.16149068322981366, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.15580697839339508, "goalieFactor": 1.0252999843886221, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 75.59032046065114, "btb": { "id": "8479542", "name": "Brandon Hagel", "score": 75.59032046065114, "components": { "Goal model": 98.55072463768116, "SOG model": 98.55072463768116, "Unit attack": 100.0, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 55.35714285714286, "Shot quality": 100.0, "Goalie": 88.02816901408451, "Team H2H": 42.747252747252745, "Goalie H2H": 52.02020202020202 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 3.8074566757153727, "unitPlayers": [ "Brandon Hagel", "Anthony Cirelli", "Nikita Kucherov" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": 4, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 1 } }, { "id": "8476455", "name": "Gabriel Landeskog", "team": "COL", "opponent": "TBL", "position": "L", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 1.4, "priorSOG": 2.2, "currentTOI": 15.958333333333334, "currentFiveTOI": 13.343333333333334, "ppShare": 0.3445814406229721, "rate": 1.8707369570255057, "fifty": 1.6675201940984279, "inputs": { "Player": "Gabriel Landeskog", "Player_ID": "8476455", "Team": "COL", "Opponent": "TBL", "Position": "L", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.8471638090251075, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.6455636765686954, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 10, "Prior_GP": 60, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.395953035223583, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 8.071246185464284, "Current_PP_SOG60": 6.779661016949152, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 8.223130560230825, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 13.354583333333334, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 13.343333333333334, "Current_PP_Share": 0.3445814406229721, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.4217949657869012, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1062.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3082.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 5, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.795185185185185, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 1.7634077647536432, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 1.6523318191650445, "Other_State_SOG": 0.075, "Environment_Proxy": 0.8844868901771036, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 2.2, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 2", "ppUnit": "PP2 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-23", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:35:35.615148+00:00", "priorGP": 60.0, "currentTotalSOG": 14.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.77, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.40 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 23 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 2.461, "currentIXG": 0.24609999999999999, "priorTOI": 16.413611111111113, "priorPPTOI": 2.3105555555555553, "deploymentChange": -0.4552777777777788, "ppTOIChange": -0.5405555555555552, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020209", "date": "20251104", "team": "COL", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 12.55 } ], "h2hGames": 1, "h2hAvailableGames": 1, "h2hSOG": 2.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "TBL", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 218.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 24.22222222222222, "mostAllowedRank": 29, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.310572168589594, "pkSogAllowed60": 47.9002079002079, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 36.333333333333336, "positionUnassignedSOG": 1.0, "positionTotals": { "L": 36.0, "R": 49.0, "D": 66.0, "C": 66.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.333333333333333, "L": 4.0, "R": 5.444444444444445, "D": 7.333333333333333 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 24.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.25, "positionSourceDifference": 1.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 24.22222222222222, "oppPosSogAllowed": 4.0, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8476883", "team": "TBL", "name": "Andrei Vasilevskiy", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-23T17:44:29.480Z", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-23", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.8975903614457832, "gaa": 2.4556616643929057, "gsax": 1.495000000000001, "goalsAllowed": 17.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 18.495, "shotsAgainst": 166.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9911791106382869, "factor": 0.9911791106382869, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter for October 23; Daily Faceoff confirmation.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.12540814101606113, "goalHistoryGoals": 18.0, "goalHistoryShots": 146.0, "goalExpected": 0.19927217574144876, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.1975144179263656, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.18067313791372222, "goalProbability": 0.17923169323459506, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.14414446791271573, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.5889891527530722, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.395953035223583, "Current_PP_SOG60": 6.779661016949152, "Current_5v5_Min": 13.343333333333334, "Current_PP_Share": 0.3445814406229721, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.795185185185185, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.6523318191650445, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9588832837562793, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0032616490671127, "Position_Factor": 0.9867937882386387, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1062.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3082.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 8.071246185464284, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 8.223130560230825, "Prior_5v5_Min": 13.380833333333333, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.4217949657869012, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9006149977914444, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.062091503267974, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.8539906850274411, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.8901211301583648, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.8930243929121631, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 4.5743329097839895, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 6.936416184971098, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 2.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five saved meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. Dated 2024–2026 regular-season appearances.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020209", "date": "20251104", "team": "COL", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 12.55 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Gabriel Landeskog", "Brock Nelson", "Nazem Kadri" ], "lineupSource": "NHL.com projected lineup", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "rosterPosition": "L", "projectedPosition": "L", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:35:35.615148+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/colorado-avalanche/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-22T17:33:02.593Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 20, "priorAttempts": 164, "fitPct": -4.866977165751962, "index": 95.13302283424804, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 11.365853658536587, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.515281930842562, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 22 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 23.292682926829265, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.609652563126957, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 34 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 40.34146341463415, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.85621916135625, "currentAttempts": 8, "priorAttempts": 67 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 17.121951219512194, "opponentDeltaPct": -12.897287560223589, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 21 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 5.926829268292684, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.418201733515886, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 12 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 1.951219512195122, "opponentDeltaPct": -11.722552252061064, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 8 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 31, "fitPct": -3.6626289947211745, "index": 96.33737100527883, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.0484005739127014, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 9.03225806451613, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.8060162233483652, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 51.935483870967744, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.6036826641455946, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 17 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 33.87096774193548, "opponentDeltaPct": -15.514716416172803, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 5.161290322580645, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.241804509586572, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 40.87182317476231, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -4.866977165751962, "zonePPFit": -3.6626289947211745, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October23 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported unit only. Expected PP minutes retain measured current-season deployment; no guessed transfer.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476883", "goalieName": "Andrei Vasilevskiy", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8476455", "goals": 2, "sog": 7, "shootingPct": 0.2857142857142857, "gamesWithAttempts": 3, "recordedAttempts": 12, "log": [ { "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 4, "gameId": "2025020209", "date": "20251104" }, { "goals": 1, "sog": 1, "attempts": 4, "gameId": "2021020477", "date": "20220210" }, { "goals": 1, "sog": 4, "attempts": 4, "gameId": "2021020068", "date": "20211023" } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "window": "2021–22 through October21, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked attempts", "coverageNote": "Observed saved encounters only; missing is unavailable, not zero. Not independently established as complete career coverage." }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476883", "goalieName": "Andrei Vasilevskiy", "opponent": "COL", "games": 5, "availableGames": 13, "shotsAgainst": 157.0, "goalsAgainst": 12.0, "savePct": 0.9235668789808917, "gaa": 2.4254674077817078, "gsax": 7.298, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020668", "date": "20260106", "goalieTeam": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "shotsAgainst": 33.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.223 }, { "gameId": "2025020209", "date": "20251104", "goalieTeam": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "shotsAgainst": 33.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3420.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.409 }, { "gameId": "2024020334", "date": "20241125", "goalieTeam": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "shotsAgainst": 25.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.459 }, { "gameId": "2024020157", "date": "20241030", "goalieTeam": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "shotsAgainst": 35.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.364 }, { "gameId": "2023020842", "date": "20240215", "goalieTeam": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "shotsAgainst": 31.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3591.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.843 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "coverageNote": "Last five observed goalie/team regular-season appearances. Historical coverage is not independently established as career-complete." }, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.1867313694575496, "attemptProjection": 1.1765658063860236, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261021", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 23.0, "sog": 12.0, "seconds": 8006.0, "expectedMinutes": 13.343333333333334, "projectedAttempts": 2.3, "onNet": 0.5012544317365341, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9399951775173531, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9886177218479464 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 2.0, "sog": 2.0, "seconds": 1062.0, "expectedMinutes": 1.6523318191650445, "projectedAttempts": 0.18670416035763215, "onNet": 0.5774130328270456, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9635919869864824, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0126481883452998 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.0456857362904928, "ppAdjusted": 0.13596285163129393, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.1816485879217866, "baseline": 2.2, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 60.0, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.5889891527530722, "adjustedSOG": 1.5889891527530722, "reductionPct": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.0456857362904928, "afterPlayerForm": 1.0456857362904928, "afterRecentDefense": 1.0456857362904928, "afterRecentZones": 1.0456857362904928, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.0456857362904928, "adjusted": 1.0456857362904928, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.8539906850274411, "newChartFactor": 0.8539906850274411, "playerRecentAttempts": 13.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 69.5, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.085163173808779, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0299737019606061, "defenseRecentMinutes": 244.35, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.13596285163129393, "afterPlayerForm": 0.13596285163129393, "afterRecentDefense": 0.13596285163129393, "afterRecentZones": 0.13596285163129393, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.13596285163129393, "adjusted": 0.13596285163129393, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.8901211301583648, "newChartFactor": 0.8901211301583648, "playerRecentAttempts": 1.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 6.05, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.462809917355372, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.04528859527121, "defenseRecentMinutes": 23.966666666666665, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.5889891527530722, "adjustedSOG": 1.5889891527530722, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.1232876712328767, "goalHistoryGoals": 18.0, "goalHistoryShots": 146.0, "goalExpected": 0.23063880292095273, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.23063880292095273, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.2059737858049194, "goalProbability": 0.2059737858049194, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12850402689951035, "modelSOG": 1.5889891527530722, "historyGames": 70, "seasonGames": { "2025": 60, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 18.0, "historyShots": 146.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.1232876712328767, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.12540814101606113, "goalieFactor": 0.9911791106382869, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 54.04397769502209, "btb": { "id": "8476455", "name": "Gabriel Landeskog", "score": 54.04397769502209, "components": { "Goal model": 63.768115942028984, "SOG model": 62.31884057971015, "Unit attack": 73.33333333333333, "Opposing lines": 27.685950413223143, "Opposing pairs": 38.311688311688314, "PP": 56.42857142857143, "Shot quality": 76.81159420289855, "Goalie": 11.971830985915492, "Team H2H": 50.48951048951049, "Goalie H2H": 54.46570972886762 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": true, "weightedXGA60": 2.0885581411195586, "games": 6, "exactGames": 5, "shares": [ 0.28506518270294967, 0.2814670312028723, 0.23787322774956632, 0.1955945583446116 ], "score": 27.685950413223143 }, "pair": { "available": true, "weightedXGA60": 2.3061982898948314, "games": 2, "exactGames": 1, "shares": [ 0.2814590834430624, 0.3394715252135586, 0.2774803531892856, 0.10158903815409338 ], "score": 38.311688311688314 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 3.0991299369671528, "unitPlayers": [ "Gabriel Landeskog", "Brock Nelson", "Nazem Kadri" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 1, "goalieH2HShots": 7, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 28 } }, { "id": "8482775", "name": "Oliver Kapanen", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "CHI", "position": "C", "currentGP": 2, "currentSOG": 2.5, "priorSOG": 1.5975609756097562, "currentTOI": 11.083333333333334, "currentFiveTOI": 9.433333333333334, "ppShare": 0.32521739130434785, "rate": 1.748166474692844, "fifty": 2.1515384822748067, "inputs": { "Player": "Oliver Kapanen", "Player_ID": "8482775", "Team": "MTL", "Opponent": "CHI", "Position": "R", "Current_GP": 2, "Prior_GP": 82, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 15.901060070671377, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.779541694533423, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 10.107991360691145, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 10.067845528455285, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 9.433333333333334, "Current_PP_Share": 0.32521739130434785, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.1980748663101605, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 187.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 575.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 1, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Measured game-matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Historical skater-team PP minute approximation, existing hybrid method", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.349074074074074, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 1.248508847210382, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 1.4143945249597423, "Other_State_SOG": 0.09878048780487805, "Environment_Proxy": 1.1241623654244617, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.5975609756097562, "Status": "Historical input object restored from saved prior summaries", "Availability_Note": "Conditional on dressing", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.7230699137852388, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 2.2646123815053705 }, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 1", "ppUnit": "PP1 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-23", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:35:35.615148+00:00", "priorGP": 82.0, "currentTotalSOG": 5.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.5583333333333333, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.50 SOG/game in 2 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 2 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 23 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.499, "currentIXG": 0.2495, "priorTOI": 14.474593495934961, "priorPPTOI": 0.9410569105691058, "deploymentChange": -3.391260162601627, "ppTOIChange": 0.6172764227642276, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020536", "date": "20251218", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 15.566666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020031", "date": "20251011", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 10.666666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024021285", "date": "20250414", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 7.283333333333333 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 3, "h2hSOG": 1.3333333333333333, "opponentDefense": { "team": "CHI", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 275.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 30.555555555555557, "mostAllowedRank": 4, "fiveSogAllowed60": 29.037678778147054, "pkSogAllowed60": 51.98019801980198, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 47.0, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 88.0, "D": 70.0, "R": 50.0, "L": 67.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.777777777777779, "L": 7.444444444444445, "R": 5.555555555555555, "D": 7.777777777777778 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 30.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.8, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 30.555555555555557, "oppPosSogAllowed": 9.777777777777779, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8481519", "team": "CHI", "name": "Spencer Knight", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-23T17:38:57.370Z", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-23", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.8878923766816144, "gaa": 3.589375448671931, "gsax": -1.0060000000000002, "goalsAllowed": 25.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 23.994, "shotsAgainst": 223.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0134476231189056, "factor": 1.0134476231189056, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter for October 23; Daily Faceoff confirmation.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.13828381997226488, "goalHistoryGoals": 22.0, "goalHistoryShots": 152.0, "goalExpected": 0.29487309837533726, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.2988384406701928, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.25537392427079825, "goalProbability": 0.258320775045392, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.2946850774593779, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": null, "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 2, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 2.1323759962263042, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 15.901060070671377, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 9.433333333333334, "Current_PP_Share": 0.32521739130434785, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.349074074074074, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.4143945249597423, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0652555848758556, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0415262503506049, "Position_Factor": 0.9909330806239977, "Input_GP": 2, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 187.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 575.0, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0170578801574575, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.437908496732026, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.2171135220303242, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0415262503506049, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 17.647058823529413, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 0.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five saved meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. Dated 2024–2026 regular-season appearances.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020536", "date": "20251218", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 15.566666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020031", "date": "20251011", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 10.666666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024021285", "date": "20250414", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 7.283333333333333 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Cole Caufield", "Oliver Kapanen", "Juraj Slafkovsky" ], "lineupSource": "NHL.com projected lineup", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "rosterPosition": "C", "projectedPosition": "C", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:35:35.615148+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/montreal-canadiens/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-22T16:05:24.999Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 167, "fitPct": 7.237117401010806, "index": 107.2371174010108, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 5.269461077844312, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.6823628774928636, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 22 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 18.391787852865697, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.333228225851869, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 41 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 31.51411462788708, "opponentDeltaPct": 17.724165752730244, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 60 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 12.164242942686057, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.874621784366013, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 15 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 22.651839178785288, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.336952686487635, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 23 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 10.008554319931566, "opponentDeltaPct": -11.504840448330498, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 6 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 18, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 7.237117401010806, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October23 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported unit only. Expected PP minutes retain measured current-season deployment; no guessed transfer.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481519", "goalieName": "Spencer Knight", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8482775", "goals": 0, "sog": 4, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 2, "recordedAttempts": 6, "log": [ { "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 5, "gameId": "2025020536", "date": "20251218" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1, "gameId": "2025020031", "date": "20251011" } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "window": "2021–22 through October21, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked attempts", "coverageNote": "Observed saved encounters only; missing is unavailable, not zero. Not independently established as complete career coverage." }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481519", "goalieName": "Spencer Knight", "opponent": "MTL", "games": 4, "availableGames": 4, "shotsAgainst": 118.0, "goalsAgainst": 13.0, "savePct": 0.8898305084745762, "gaa": 3.269526337851055, "gsax": 0.5030000000000001, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020536", "date": "20251218", "goalieTeam": "CHI", "opponent": "MTL", "shotsAgainst": 34.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3563.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.275 }, { "gameId": "2025020031", "date": "20251011", "goalieTeam": "CHI", "opponent": "MTL", "shotsAgainst": 28.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3585.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.45 }, { "gameId": "2024020566", "date": "20241228", "goalieTeam": "FLA", "opponent": "MTL", "shotsAgainst": 25.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3566.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.261 }, { "gameId": "2021021020", "date": "20220324", "goalieTeam": "FLA", "opponent": "MTL", "shotsAgainst": 31.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.517 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "coverageNote": "Last five observed goalie/team regular-season appearances. Historical coverage is not independently established as career-complete." }, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 2.875, "attemptProjection": 2.3336254229136806, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261021", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 8.0, "sog": 5.0, "seconds": 1132.0, "expectedMinutes": 9.433333333333334, "projectedAttempts": 4.0, "onNet": 0.5221100696947849, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0621717863909321, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0519965736844064 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 187.0, "expectedMinutes": 1.4143945249597423, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.5294117647058824, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.938442005242464, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.067787892452511 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 2.6043127114568403, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 2.6043127114568403, "baseline": 1.5975609756097562, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 82.0, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 2.2016120171180065, "adjustedSOG": 2.1758938737003106, "reductionPct": 1.168150574112592, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 2.6043127114568403, "afterPlayerForm": 2.6043127114568403, "afterRecentDefense": 2.5614491390940133, "afterRecentZones": 2.6043127114568403, "afterDefenseAndZones": 2.5614491390940133, "adjusted": 2.5614491390940133, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9835413112356812, "oldChartFactor": 1.2171135220303242, "newChartFactor": 1.2171135220303242, "playerRecentAttempts": 8.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 18.866666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9224595246296935, "defenseRecentMinutes": 241.91666666666666, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 3.1166666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0243821773082225, "defenseRecentMinutes": 25.916666666666668, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 2.1758938737003106, "adjustedSOG": 2.1323759962263042, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.16176470588235295, "goalHistoryGoals": 22.0, "goalHistoryShots": 136.0, "goalExpected": 0.2827916356120777, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.2827916356120777, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.2463231890924605, "goalProbability": 0.2463231890924605, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12847522633010747, "modelSOG": 2.1323759962263042, "historyGames": 102, "seasonGames": { "2024": 18, "2025": 82, "2026": 2 }, "historyGoals": 22.0, "historyShots": 152.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.14473684210526316, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.13828381997226488, "goalieFactor": 1.0134476231189056, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 63.77748872729796, "btb": { "id": "8482775", "name": "Oliver Kapanen", "score": 63.77748872729796, "components": { "Goal model": 86.95652173913044, "SOG model": 79.71014492753623, "Unit attack": 60.0, "Opposing lines": 77.27272727272728, "Opposing pairs": 60.101010101010104, "PP": 50.714285714285715, "Shot quality": 71.01449275362319, "Goalie": 62.67605633802817, "Team H2H": 40.946745562130175, "Goalie H2H": 49.494949494949495 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": true, "weightedXGA60": 2.7567053963155796, "games": 6, "exactGames": 0, "shares": [ 0.35957265014008766, 0.23628675969897175, 0.21081796883192694, 0.1933226213290136 ], "score": 77.27272727272728 }, "pair": { "available": true, "weightedXGA60": 2.865617769343295, "games": 4, "exactGames": 0, "shares": [ 0.377381712887435, 0.3047097133776021, 0.27988051475806297, 0.038028058976899926 ], "score": 60.101010101010104 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.9222728841182053, "unitPlayers": [ "Cole Caufield", "Oliver Kapanen", "Juraj Slafkovsky" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 3, "goalieH2HShots": 4, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 10 } }, { "id": "8483752", "name": "Dominic James", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "position": "R", "currentGP": 2, "currentSOG": 0.5, "priorSOG": 1.302325581395349, "currentTOI": 12.975, "currentFiveTOI": 12.108333333333333, "ppShare": 0.25060240963855424, "rate": 1.2970746610833468, "fifty": 1.0211731071657717, "inputs": { "Player": "Dominic James", "Player_ID": "8483752", "Team": "TBL", "Opponent": "COL", "Position": "C", "Current_GP": 2, "Prior_GP": 43, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.477632484514797, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.628682601445248, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 4.166666666666667, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 11.822810077519378, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 12.108333333333333, "Current_PP_Share": 0.25060240963855424, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.1322121575169912, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 104.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 415.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 2, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Measured game-matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Historical skater-team PP minute approximation, existing hybrid method", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.612685185185185, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.9921209337020264, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 1.1559500223114683, "Other_State_SOG": 0.020930232558139535, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9914667421548949, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.302325581395349, "Status": "Historical input object restored from saved prior summaries", "Availability_Note": "Conditional on dressing", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.230692610347778, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 0.9716738852945079 }, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 4", "ppUnit": "PP assignment pending", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-23", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:35:35.615148+00:00", "priorGP": 43.0, "currentTotalSOG": 1.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.8666666666666667, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.50 SOG/game in 2 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 2 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 23 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.229, "currentIXG": 0.1145, "priorTOI": 12.236821705426355, "priorPPTOI": 0.6697674418604651, "deploymentChange": 0.738178294573645, "ppTOIChange": 0.1968992248062016, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020668", "date": "20260106", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 12.133333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020209", "date": "20251104", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 13.633333333333333 } ], "h2hGames": 2, "h2hAvailableGames": 2, "h2hSOG": 0.5, "opponentDefense": { "team": "COL", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 273.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.3, "mostAllowedRank": 16, "fiveSogAllowed60": 27.02393375298751, "pkSogAllowed60": 47.51429828420589, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 40.2, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 100.0, "R": 60.0, "L": 45.0, "D": 68.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.0, "L": 4.5, "R": 6.0, "D": 6.8 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 29.0, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.8, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.3, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.0, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8478406", "team": "COL", "name": "Mackenzie Blackwood", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-23T16:26:32.640Z", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-23", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.8888888888888888, "gaa": 2.897734132893307, "gsax": -2.4450000000000003, "goalsAllowed": 20.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 17.555, "shotsAgainst": 180.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0252999843886221, "factor": 1.0252999843886221, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter for October 23; Daily Faceoff confirmation.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.12643320616428363, "goalHistoryGoals": 7.0, "goalHistoryShots": 57.0, "goalExpected": 0.1366907897628807, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.14014906460995002, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.1277601100582506, "goalProbability": 0.13077134548925853, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.3011235431007925, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 2, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.0811304554380174, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.477632484514797, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 12.108333333333333, "Current_PP_Share": 0.25060240963855424, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.612685185185185, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.1559500223114683, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0289555868427727, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9996701327073623, "Position_Factor": 1.0071306809533955, "Input_GP": 2, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 104.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 415.0, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0297783933518005, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.437908496732026, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.9930924316541155, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.022665128718608, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9996701327073623, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 2.477632484514797, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five saved meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. Dated 2024–2026 regular-season appearances.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020668", "date": "20260106", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 12.133333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020209", "date": "20251104", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 13.633333333333333 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Jeffrey Viel", "Conor Geekie", "Dominic James" ], "lineupSource": "NHL.com projected lineup", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 78, "fitPct": -0.23025227819614713, "index": 99.76974772180385, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 9.230769230769232, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.604370751696635, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 18 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 6.153846153846155, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.2025641924569896, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 12 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 51.79487179487179, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.26262818174886604, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 23 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 6.153846153846155, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.0950116912032684, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 12 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 5.128205128205128, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.044692588641311204, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 10 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 21.538461538461537, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.6551158457307906, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 3 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -0.23025227819614713, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October23 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported unit only. Expected PP minutes retain measured current-season deployment; no guessed transfer.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478406", "goalieName": "Mackenzie Blackwood", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8483752", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "window": "2021–22 through October21, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked attempts", "coverageNote": "Observed saved encounters only; missing is unavailable, not zero. Not independently established as complete career coverage." }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478406", "goalieName": "Mackenzie Blackwood", "opponent": "TBL", "games": 4, "availableGames": 4, "shotsAgainst": 99.0, "goalsAgainst": 15.0, "savePct": 0.8484848484848485, "gaa": 4.800426704595964, "gsax": -3.8269999999999995, "log": [ { "gameId": "2024020413", "date": "20241205", "goalieTeam": "SJS", "opponent": "TBL", "shotsAgainst": 23.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 2400.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.907 }, { "gameId": "2023021108", "date": "20240321", "goalieTeam": "SJS", "opponent": "TBL", "shotsAgainst": 21.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.592 }, { "gameId": "2023020106", "date": "20231026", "goalieTeam": "SJS", "opponent": "TBL", "shotsAgainst": 21.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 1649.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.962 }, { "gameId": "2021020264", "date": "20211120", "goalieTeam": "NJD", "opponent": "TBL", "shotsAgainst": 34.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.712 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "coverageNote": "Last five observed goalie/team regular-season appearances. Historical coverage is not independently established as career-complete." }, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.511332564359304, "attemptProjection": 1.4297933306707806, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261021", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 6.0, "sog": 1.0, "seconds": 1453.0, "expectedMinutes": 12.108333333333333, "projectedAttempts": 3.0, "onNet": 0.4693282864695986, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0290266956001277, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9868443082842028 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 104.0, "expectedMinutes": 1.1559500223114683, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.5294117647058824, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9649306914974484, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9896116972997503 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.9705629475150424, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.9705629475150424, "baseline": 1.302325581395349, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 43.0, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.103268001067165, "adjustedSOG": 1.1031943422836914, "reductionPct": 0.006676418005624463, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.9705629475150424, "afterPlayerForm": 0.9705629475150424, "afterRecentDefense": 0.9705629475150424, "afterRecentZones": 0.9704401828759197, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.9704401828759197, "adjusted": 0.9704401828759197, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.9930924316541155, "newChartFactor": 0.9926155731769317, "playerRecentAttempts": 6.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 24.216666666666665, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0842659644502963, "defenseRecentMinutes": 251.61666666666667, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 1.7333333333333334, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.594204503506829, "defenseRecentMinutes": 15.05, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.1031943422836914, "adjustedSOG": 1.0811304554380174, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.12280701754385964, "goalHistoryGoals": 7.0, "goalHistoryShots": 57.0, "goalExpected": 0.15928987065935837, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.15928987065935837, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.14725086381482638, "goalProbability": 0.14725086381482638, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12850013367792532, "modelSOG": 1.0811304554380174, "historyGames": 45, "seasonGames": { "2025": 43, "2026": 2 }, "historyGoals": 7.0, "historyShots": 57.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.12280701754385964, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.12643320616428363, "goalieFactor": 1.0252999843886221, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 49.68994064722785, "btb": { "id": "8483752", "name": "Dominic James", "score": 49.68994064722785, "components": { "Goal model": 47.82608695652174, "SOG model": 26.08695652173913, "Unit attack": 20.0, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 56.52173913043478, "Goalie": 88.02816901408451, "Team H2H": 49.1025641025641, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.4403994453112747, "unitPlayers": [ "Jeffrey Viel", "Conor Geekie", "Dominic James" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 2, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 34 }, "rosterPosition": "C", "projectedPosition": "R", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:35:35.615148+00:00" }, { "id": "8481719", "name": "Max Crozier", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "position": "D", "currentGP": 5, "currentSOG": 1.6, "priorSOG": 1.3142857142857143, "currentTOI": 16.759999999999998, "currentFiveTOI": 15.723333333333333, "ppShare": 0.02484113229347198, "rate": 1.383170175618676, "fifty": 1.4900825105102153, "inputs": { "Player": "Max Crozier", "Player_ID": "8481719", "Team": "TBL", "Opponent": "COL", "Position": "D", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.3602297144177733, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.5680743215477109, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 5, "Prior_GP": 35, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 6.105575577697689, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.210869136127377, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 15.34890476190476, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 15.723333333333333, "Current_PP_Share": 0.02484113229347198, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.004700002292684046, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 43.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1731.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 3, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.612685185185185, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.08671291532306648, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.11458432291332349, "Other_State_SOG": 0.05142857142857143, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9914667421548949, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.3142857142857143, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 3", "ppUnit": "PP assignment pending", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-23", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:35:35.615148+00:00", "priorGP": 35.0, "currentTotalSOG": 8.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.14333333333333334, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.60 SOG/game in 5 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 5 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 23 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.293, "currentIXG": 0.0586, "priorTOI": 16.01142857142857, "priorPPTOI": 0.02380952380952381, "deploymentChange": 0.7485714285714273, "ppTOIChange": 0.11952380952380953, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020668", "date": "20260106", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 15.55 }, { "gameId": "2025020209", "date": "20251104", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 10.183333333333334 } ], "h2hGames": 2, "h2hAvailableGames": 2, "h2hSOG": 1.5, "opponentDefense": { "team": "COL", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 273.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.3, "mostAllowedRank": 16, "fiveSogAllowed60": 27.02393375298751, "pkSogAllowed60": 47.51429828420589, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 40.2, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 100.0, "R": 60.0, "L": 45.0, "D": 68.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.0, "L": 4.5, "R": 6.0, "D": 6.8 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 29.0, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.8, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.3, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.8, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8478406", "team": "COL", "name": "Mackenzie Blackwood", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-23T16:26:32.640Z", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-23", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.8888888888888888, "gaa": 2.897734132893307, "gsax": -2.4450000000000003, "goalsAllowed": 20.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 17.555, "shotsAgainst": 180.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0252999843886221, "factor": 1.0252999843886221, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter for October 23; Daily Faceoff confirmation.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.041810086597368214, "goalHistoryGoals": 1.0, "goalHistoryShots": 62.0, "goalExpected": 0.05843227294612608, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.05991060853945478, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.05675787875362676, "goalProbability": 0.05815127694575072, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.13933981921239597, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 5, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.3975640258493072, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 6.105575577697689, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 15.723333333333333, "Current_PP_Share": 0.02484113229347198, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.612685185185185, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.11458432291332349, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0289555868427727, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9996701327073623, "Position_Factor": 0.9904286105353721, "Input_GP": 5, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 43.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1731.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.210869136127377, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 14.475238095238096, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.004700002292684046, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9628113879003559, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.34640522875817, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.0207819873985167, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9828205220308495, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9996701327073623, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 6.105575577697689, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five saved meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. Dated 2024–2026 regular-season appearances.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020668", "date": "20260106", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 15.55 }, { "gameId": "2025020209", "date": "20251104", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 10.183333333333334 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Victor Hedman", "Max Crozier" ], "lineupSource": "NHL.com projected lineup", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 11, "priorAttempts": 63, "fitPct": 0.6927329132838906, "index": 100.69273291328389, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 62.943722943722946, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.604370751696635, "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 39 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 1.9047619047619049, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.2025641924569896, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 2.5396825396825395, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.26262818174886604, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 12.813852813852813, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.0950116912032684, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 18.528138528138527, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.044692588641311204, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 12 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 1.2698412698412698, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.6551158457307906, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 0.6927329132838906, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October23 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported unit only. Expected PP minutes retain measured current-season deployment; no guessed transfer.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478406", "goalieName": "Mackenzie Blackwood", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8481719", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "window": "2021–22 through October21, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked attempts", "coverageNote": "Observed saved encounters only; missing is unavailable, not zero. Not independently established as complete career coverage." }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478406", "goalieName": "Mackenzie Blackwood", "opponent": "TBL", "games": 4, "availableGames": 4, "shotsAgainst": 99.0, "goalsAgainst": 15.0, "savePct": 0.8484848484848485, "gaa": 4.800426704595964, "gsax": -3.8269999999999995, "log": [ { "gameId": "2024020413", "date": "20241205", "goalieTeam": "SJS", "opponent": "TBL", "shotsAgainst": 23.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 2400.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.907 }, { "gameId": "2023021108", "date": "20240321", "goalieTeam": "SJS", "opponent": "TBL", "shotsAgainst": 21.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.592 }, { "gameId": "2023020106", "date": "20231026", "goalieTeam": "SJS", "opponent": "TBL", "shotsAgainst": 21.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 1649.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.962 }, { "gameId": "2021020264", "date": "20211120", "goalieTeam": "NJD", "opponent": "TBL", "shotsAgainst": 34.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.712 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "coverageNote": "Last five observed goalie/team regular-season appearances. Historical coverage is not independently established as career-complete." }, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.572512835249359, "attemptProjection": 1.4310220584885858, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261021", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 17.0, "sog": 8.0, "seconds": 4717.0, "expectedMinutes": 15.723333333333333, "projectedAttempts": 3.4, "onNet": 0.4144690722306486, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0290266956001277, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9868443082842028 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 43.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.11458432291332349, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.425764192139738, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9649306914974484, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9896116972997503 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.5017674468689723, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.5017674468689723, "baseline": 1.3142857142857143, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 35.0, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.426774753835669, "adjustedSOG": 1.4260857406625584, "reductionPct": 0.04829165719804074, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.5017674468689723, "afterPlayerForm": 1.5017674468689723, "afterRecentDefense": 1.5017674468689723, "afterRecentZones": 1.5006190915804547, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.5006190915804547, "adjusted": 1.5006190915804547, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.0207819873985167, "newChartFactor": 1.0192910992259354, "playerRecentAttempts": 17.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 78.61666666666666, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.0, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0338983050847457, "defenseRecentMinutes": 251.61666666666667, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.7166666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.594204503506829, "defenseRecentMinutes": 15.05, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.4260857406625584, "adjustedSOG": 1.3975640258493072, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.018518518518518517, "goalHistoryGoals": 1.0, "goalHistoryShots": 54.0, "goalExpected": 0.025614262511456962, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.025614262511456962, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.025289000324144113, "goalProbability": 0.025289000324144113, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.0577323402877365, "modelSOG": 1.3975640258493072, "historyGames": 45, "seasonGames": { "2024": 5, "2025": 35, "2026": 5 }, "historyGoals": 1.0, "historyShots": 62.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.016129032258064516, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.041810086597368214, "goalieFactor": 1.0252999843886221, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 45.99342701593161, "btb": { "id": "8481719", "name": "Max Crozier", "score": 45.99342701593161, "components": { "Goal model": 13.043478260869565, "SOG model": 46.3768115942029, "Unit attack": 81.81818181818181, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 41.608391608391614, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 21.73913043478261, "Goalie": 88.02816901408451, "Team H2H": 48.84615384615385, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Incomplete current opposing units or 5v5 minute baselines; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Incomplete current opposing units or 5v5 minute baselines", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": true, "games": 8, "exactGames": 4, "individualGames": 4, "roleGames": 2, "exactMinutes": 23.583333333333332, "exactWeight": 0.28215353938185445, "individualWeight": 0.31500332984492435, "venueGames": 3, "venueFallback": false, "shares": [ 0.33389195285044276, 0.3155914438170684, 0.2702919344574657, 0.08022466887502303 ], "units": [ { "unit": 2, "names": [ "Brett Kulak", "Sam Malinski" ], "share": 0.33389195285044276, "xGA60": 2.386620819090907 }, { "unit": 1, "names": [ "Devon Toews", "Cale Makar" ], "share": 0.3155914438170684, "xGA60": 2.232944179481916 }, { "unit": 3, "names": [ "Josh Manson", "Brent Burns" ], "share": 0.2702919344574657, "xGA60": 2.608622014683556 } ], "otherShare": 0.08022466887502303, "weightedXGA60": 2.3953827891247217, "score": 41.608391608391614 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 3.4424526868784673, "unitPlayers": [ "Victor Hedman", "Max Crozier" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 2, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 41 }, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:35:35.615148+00:00" }, { "id": "8482964", "name": "Arber Xhekaj", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "CHI", "position": "D", "currentGP": 9, "currentSOG": 0.4444444444444444, "priorSOG": 0.6153846153846154, "currentTOI": 12.131481481481481, "currentFiveTOI": 10.04074074074074, "ppShare": 0.0035195776506819184, "rate": 0.6331726290755352, "fifty": 0.5790924070837751, "inputs": { "Player": "Arber Xhekaj", "Player_ID": "8482964", "Team": "MTL", "Opponent": "CHI", "Position": "D", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 0.4830446163340966, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 0.4319775923545901, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 9, "Prior_GP": 65, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.6558465510881595, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.267091729883185, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 10.334210826210825, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 10.04074074074074, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0035195776506819184, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.0017270259152612098, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 8.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2273.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 5, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.349074074074074, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.012968121828584858, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.015306903912271269, "Other_State_SOG": 0.013846153846153847, "Environment_Proxy": 1.1241623654244617, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 0.6153846153846154, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 3", "ppUnit": "PP assignment pending", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-23", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:35:35.615148+00:00", "priorGP": 65.0, "currentTotalSOG": 4.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.014814814814814815, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.44 SOG/game in 9 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 9 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 23 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.251, "currentIXG": 0.02788888888888889, "priorTOI": 11.422564102564102, "priorPPTOI": 0.008205128205128205, "deploymentChange": 0.7089173789173788, "ppTOIChange": 0.00660968660968661, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020536", "date": "20251218", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 16.283333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2025020031", "date": "20251011", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 6.8 }, { "gameId": "2024020616", "date": "20250103", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 9.983333333333333 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 3, "h2hSOG": 0.6666666666666666, "opponentDefense": { "team": "CHI", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 275.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 30.555555555555557, "mostAllowedRank": 4, "fiveSogAllowed60": 29.037678778147054, "pkSogAllowed60": 51.98019801980198, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 47.0, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 88.0, "D": 70.0, "R": 50.0, "L": 67.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.777777777777779, "L": 7.444444444444445, "R": 5.555555555555555, "D": 7.777777777777778 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 30.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.8, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 30.555555555555557, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.777777777777778, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8481519", "team": "CHI", "name": "Spencer Knight", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-23T17:38:57.370Z", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-23", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.8878923766816144, "gaa": 3.589375448671931, "gsax": -1.0060000000000002, "goalsAllowed": 25.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 23.994, "shotsAgainst": 223.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0134476231189056, "factor": 1.0134476231189056, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter for October 23; Daily Faceoff confirmation.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.03651519534889131, "goalHistoryGoals": 2.0, "goalHistoryShots": 113.0, "goalExpected": 0.020693553628365283, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.0209718327385504, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.020480911348192864, "goalProbability": 0.020753453125491803, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.027254177729893816, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 9, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 0.5667107468724959, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.6558465510881595, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 10.04074074074074, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0035195776506819184, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.349074074074074, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.015306903912271269, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0652555848758556, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0415262503506049, "Position_Factor": 0.9933299562396771, "Input_GP": 9, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 8.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2273.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.267091729883185, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 11.01897435897436, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.0017270259152612098, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0278141974152464, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.34640522875817, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.0904346993363034, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.1207642653320782, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0415262503506049, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 2.3091725465041693, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 1.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five saved meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. Dated 2024–2026 regular-season appearances.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020536", "date": "20251218", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 16.283333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2025020031", "date": "20251011", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 6.8 }, { "gameId": "2024020616", "date": "20250103", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 9.983333333333333 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Arber Xhekaj", "Mike Matheson" ], "lineupSource": "NHL.com projected lineup", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:35:35.615148+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 63, "fitPct": 3.014489977876778, "index": 103.01448997787678, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 74.28571428571429, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.6823628774928636, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 54 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 11.904761904761903, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.333228225851869, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 17.724165752730244, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 12.53968253968254, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.874621784366013, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 1.2698412698412698, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.336952686487635, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -11.504840448330498, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 3.014489977876778, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October23 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported unit only. Expected PP minutes retain measured current-season deployment; no guessed transfer.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481519", "goalieName": "Spencer Knight", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8482964", "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 2, "recordedAttempts": 3, "log": [ { "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2, "gameId": "2025020536", "date": "20251218" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1, "gameId": "2024020566", "date": "20241228" } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "window": "2021–22 through October21, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked attempts", "coverageNote": "Observed saved encounters only; missing is unavailable, not zero. Not independently established as complete career coverage." }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481519", "goalieName": "Spencer Knight", "opponent": "MTL", "games": 4, "availableGames": 4, "shotsAgainst": 118.0, "goalsAgainst": 13.0, "savePct": 0.8898305084745762, "gaa": 3.269526337851055, "gsax": 0.5030000000000001, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020536", "date": "20251218", "goalieTeam": "CHI", "opponent": "MTL", "shotsAgainst": 34.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3563.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.275 }, { "gameId": "2025020031", "date": "20251011", "goalieTeam": "CHI", "opponent": "MTL", "shotsAgainst": 28.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3585.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.45 }, { "gameId": "2024020566", "date": "20241228", "goalieTeam": "FLA", "opponent": "MTL", "shotsAgainst": 25.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3566.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.261 }, { "gameId": "2021021020", "date": "20220324", "goalieTeam": "FLA", "opponent": "MTL", "shotsAgainst": 31.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.517 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "coverageNote": "Last five observed goalie/team regular-season appearances. Historical coverage is not independently established as career-complete." }, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.4981174512587014, "attemptProjection": 0.6455551748707541, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261021", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 14.0, "sog": 4.0, "seconds": 5422.0, "expectedMinutes": 10.04074074074074, "projectedAttempts": 1.5555555555555554, "onNet": 0.37139730999146026, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0621717863909321, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0519965736844064 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 8.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.015306903912271269, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.425764192139738, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.938442005242464, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.067787892452511 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.5718363130647277, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.5718363130647277, "baseline": 0.6153846153846154, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 65.0, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.5892556339926828, "adjustedSOG": 0.5782762723188734, "reductionPct": 1.8632595159787213, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.5718363130647277, "afterPlayerForm": 0.5718363130647277, "afterRecentDefense": 0.5549602429998041, "afterRecentZones": 0.5703701783444346, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.553537376941712, "adjusted": 0.553537376941712, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9704879356568364, "oldChartFactor": 1.0904346993363034, "newChartFactor": 1.0840156342388272, "playerRecentAttempts": 12.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 50.516666666666666, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.533298769854362, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.860962222987714, "defenseRecentMinutes": 241.91666666666666, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.0, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0243821773082225, "defenseRecentMinutes": 25.916666666666668, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.5782762723188734, "adjustedSOG": 0.5667107468724959, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.022727272727272728, "goalHistoryGoals": 1.0, "goalHistoryShots": 44.0, "goalExpected": 0.014390287024443981, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.014390287024443981, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.014287241720127448, "goalProbability": 0.014287241720127448, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.0577773660931385, "modelSOG": 0.5667107468724959, "historyGames": 144, "seasonGames": { "2024": 70, "2025": 65, "2026": 9 }, "historyGoals": 2.0, "historyShots": 113.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.017699115044247787, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.03651519534889131, "goalieFactor": 1.0134476231189056, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 34.706887505777, "btb": { "id": "8482964", "name": "Arber Xhekaj", "score": 34.706887505777, "components": { "Goal model": 0.0, "SOG model": 0.0, "Unit attack": 36.36363636363637, "Opposing lines": 65.38461538461539, "Opposing pairs": 80.76923076923077, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 0.0, "Goalie": 62.67605633802817, "Team H2H": 49.82248520710059, "Goalie H2H": 50.21853146853147 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": true, "games": 8, "exactGames": 0, "individualGames": 8, "roleGames": 0, "exactMinutes": 0.0, "exactWeight": 0, "individualWeight": 0.5568139849809185, "venueGames": 3, "venueFallback": false, "shares": [ 0.25099428215349934, 0.20279063974696637, 0.2144699078165292, 0.21470209349143649, 0.1170430767915687 ], "units": [ { "unit": 1, "names": [ "Roman Kantserov", "Connor Bedard", "Patrick Kane" ], "share": 0.25099428215349934, "xGA60": 3.034330357181087 }, { "unit": 2, "names": [ "Tyler Bertuzzi", "Anton Frondell", "Teuvo Teravainen" ], "share": 0.20279063974696637, "xGA60": 2.9573904009618985 }, { "unit": 4, "names": [ "Cole Smith", "Ryan Greene", "Jordan Greenway" ], "share": 0.2144699078165292, "xGA60": 2.1366414316797844 }, { "unit": 3, "names": [ "Oliver Moore", "Frank Nazar", "Ryan Donato" ], "share": 0.21470209349143649, "xGA60": 2.6268627576253714 } ], "otherShare": 0.1170430767915687, "weightedXGA60": 2.7398773998418533, "score": 65.38461538461539 }, "pair": { "available": true, "games": 8, "exactGames": 0, "individualGames": 8, "roleGames": 0, "exactMinutes": 0.0, "exactWeight": 0, "individualWeight": 0.5568139849809185, "venueGames": 3, "venueFallback": false, "shares": [ 0.32177229607426494, 0.2563867556434669, 0.2712312547963755, 0.1506096934858926 ], "units": [ { "unit": 2, "names": [ "Wyatt Kaiser", "Artyom Levshunov" ], "share": 0.32177229607426494, "xGA60": 2.7395083310694384 }, { "unit": 1, "names": [ "Alex Vlasic", "Ian Cole" ], "share": 0.2563867556434669, "xGA60": 2.7281475578627203 }, { "unit": 3, "names": [ "Ethan Del Mastro", "Sam Rinzel" ], "share": 0.2712312547963755, "xGA60": 3.1610539346551283 } ], "otherShare": 0.1506096934858926, "weightedXGA60": 2.8968291361568417, "score": 80.76923076923077 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.6372181668991796, "unitPlayers": [ "Arber Xhekaj", "Mike Matheson" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 3, "goalieH2HShots": 2, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 64 } }, { "id": "8478133", "name": "Jake Evans", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "CHI", "position": "R", "currentGP": 9, "currentSOG": 0.7777777777777778, "priorSOG": 1.1029411764705883, "currentTOI": 13.553703703703704, "currentFiveTOI": 9.538888888888888, "ppShare": 0.0, "rate": 1.0979422059334838, "fifty": 0.9804753530273101, "inputs": { "Player": "Jake Evans", "Player_ID": "8478133", "Team": "MTL", "Opponent": "CHI", "Position": "C", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 0.8796107828292664, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 0.8338568952748551, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 9, "Prior_GP": 68, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.7955736750145603, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.018853882411312, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 10.233986928104574, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 9.538888888888888, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.010162944322113874, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2273.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 5, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.349074074074074, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.013259819300269128, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.0, "Other_State_SOG": 0.3112745098039216, "Environment_Proxy": 1.1241623654244617, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.1029411764705883, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 4", "ppUnit": "PP assignment pending", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-23", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:35:35.615148+00:00", "priorGP": 68.0, "currentTotalSOG": 7.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.0, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.78 SOG/game in 9 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 9 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 23 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.915, "currentIXG": 0.10166666666666667, "priorTOI": 15.356372549019609, "priorPPTOI": 0.04828431372549019, "deploymentChange": -1.802668845315905, "ppTOIChange": -0.04828431372549019, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020536", "date": "20251218", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 16.45 }, { "gameId": "2025020031", "date": "20251011", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 14.55 }, { "gameId": "2024021285", "date": "20250414", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 10.233333333333333 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 0.3333333333333333, "opponentDefense": { "team": "CHI", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 275.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 30.555555555555557, "mostAllowedRank": 4, "fiveSogAllowed60": 29.037678778147054, "pkSogAllowed60": 51.98019801980198, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 47.0, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 88.0, "D": 70.0, "R": 50.0, "L": 67.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.777777777777779, "L": 7.444444444444445, "R": 5.555555555555555, "D": 7.777777777777778 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 30.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.8, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 30.555555555555557, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.555555555555555, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8481519", "team": "CHI", "name": "Spencer Knight", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-23T17:38:57.370Z", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-23", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.8878923766816144, "gaa": 3.589375448671931, "gsax": -1.0060000000000002, "goalsAllowed": 25.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 23.994, "shotsAgainst": 223.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0134476231189056, "factor": 1.0134476231189056, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter for October 23; Daily Faceoff confirmation.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.1444503534207128, "goalHistoryGoals": 25.0, "goalHistoryShots": 162.0, "goalExpected": 0.13705182660286147, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.13889484791477436, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.12807496395147297, "goalProbability": 0.12968046043872689, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.16054964872539157, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 9, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 0.9487815249831679, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.7955736750145603, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 9.538888888888888, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.349074074074074, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.0, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.3333333333333333, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0652555848758556, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0415262503506049, "Position_Factor": 0.9909330806239977, "Input_GP": 9, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2273.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.018853882411312, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 11.855882352941178, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.010162944322113874, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0170578801574575, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.437908496732026, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.25, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0415262503506049, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 3.221476510067114, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five saved meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. Dated 2024–2026 regular-season appearances.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020536", "date": "20251218", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 16.45 }, { "gameId": "2025020031", "date": "20251011", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 14.55 }, { "gameId": "2024021285", "date": "20250414", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 10.233333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020616", "date": "20250103", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 14.4 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Kirby Dach", "Owen Beck", "Jake Evans" ], "lineupSource": "NHL.com projected lineup", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "rosterPosition": "C", "projectedPosition": "R", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:35:35.615148+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 9, "priorAttempts": 88, "fitPct": 8.471443504841119, "index": 108.47144350484112, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 4.545454545454546, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.6823628774928636, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 10 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 35.303030303030305, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.333228225851869, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 19 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 27.878787878787882, "opponentDeltaPct": 17.724165752730244, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 32 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 10.757575757575758, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.874621784366013, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 9 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 18.78787878787879, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.336952686487635, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 12 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 2.727272727272728, "opponentDeltaPct": -11.504840448330498, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 6 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 8.471443504841119, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October23 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported unit only. Expected PP minutes retain measured current-season deployment; no guessed transfer.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481519", "goalieName": "Spencer Knight", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8478133", "goals": 2, "sog": 4, "shootingPct": 0.5, "gamesWithAttempts": 4, "recordedAttempts": 8, "log": [ { "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 1, "gameId": "2025020536", "date": "20251218" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 3, "gameId": "2025020031", "date": "20251011" }, { "goals": 1, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1, "gameId": "2024020566", "date": "20241228" }, { "goals": 1, "sog": 2, "attempts": 3, "gameId": "2021021020", "date": "20220324" } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "window": "2021–22 through October21, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked attempts", "coverageNote": "Observed saved encounters only; missing is unavailable, not zero. Not independently established as complete career coverage." }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481519", "goalieName": "Spencer Knight", "opponent": "MTL", "games": 4, "availableGames": 4, "shotsAgainst": 118.0, "goalsAgainst": 13.0, "savePct": 0.8898305084745762, "gaa": 3.269526337851055, "gsax": 0.5030000000000001, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020536", "date": "20251218", "goalieTeam": "CHI", "opponent": "MTL", "shotsAgainst": 34.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3563.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.275 }, { "gameId": "2025020031", "date": "20251011", "goalieTeam": "CHI", "opponent": "MTL", "shotsAgainst": 28.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3585.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.45 }, { "gameId": "2024020566", "date": "20241228", "goalieTeam": "FLA", "opponent": "MTL", "shotsAgainst": 25.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3566.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.261 }, { "gameId": "2021021020", "date": "20220324", "goalieTeam": "FLA", "opponent": "MTL", "shotsAgainst": 31.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.517 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "coverageNote": "Last five observed goalie/team regular-season appearances. Historical coverage is not independently established as career-complete." }, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.8444444444444443, "attemptProjection": 0.9889286759113103, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261021", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 11.0, "sog": 4.0, "seconds": 5151.0, "expectedMinutes": 9.538888888888888, "projectedAttempts": 1.222222222222222, "onNet": 0.4800390826606151, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0621717863909321, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0519965736844064 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 0.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.0, "projectedAttempts": 0, "onNet": 0.5294117647058824, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.938442005242464, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.067787892452511 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.583353226844544, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.3333333333333333 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.9166865601778773, "baseline": 1.1029411764705883, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 68.0, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.9911884066949617, "adjustedSOG": 0.9681444132481305, "reductionPct": 2.324885288324696, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.583353226844544, "afterPlayerForm": 0.5602621791384474, "afterRecentDefense": 0.5674063903399712, "afterRecentZones": 0.583353226844544, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.5674063903399712, "adjusted": 0.5449465710998252, "playerFactor": 0.9604166967053565, "defenseFactor": 0.9726634982533106, "oldChartFactor": 1.25, "newChartFactor": 1.25, "playerRecentAttempts": 4.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 45.083333333333336, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.6924550495715006, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8712117732613771, "defenseRecentMinutes": 241.91666666666666, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.0, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0243821773082225, "defenseRecentMinutes": 25.916666666666668, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.9681444132481305, "adjustedSOG": 0.9487815249831679, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.14634146341463414, "goalHistoryGoals": 12.0, "goalHistoryShots": 82.0, "goalExpected": 0.16067446916099762, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.16067446916099762, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.1484307619599608, "goalProbability": 0.1484307619599608, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12845992596226752, "modelSOG": 0.9487815249831679, "historyGames": 159, "seasonGames": { "2024": 82, "2025": 68, "2026": 9 }, "historyGoals": 25.0, "historyShots": 162.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.15432098765432098, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.1444503534207128, "goalieFactor": 1.0134476231189056, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 44.67049384499143, "btb": { "id": "8478133", "name": "Jake Evans", "score": 44.67049384499143, "components": { "Goal model": 49.27536231884058, "SOG model": 17.391304347826086, "Unit attack": 26.666666666666668, "Opposing lines": 62.396694214876035, "Opposing pairs": 77.27272727272728, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 23.18840579710145, "Goalie": 62.67605633802817, "Team H2H": 36.15384615384615, "Goalie H2H": 52.861952861952865 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": true, "weightedXGA60": 2.7155000049715925, "games": 6, "exactGames": 1, "shares": [ 0.2580287752270173, 0.2843369737870208, 0.23226186850548228, 0.22537238248047964 ], "score": 62.396694214876035 }, "pair": { "available": true, "weightedXGA60": 2.8969644436281996, "games": 6, "exactGames": 1, "shares": [ 0.31886489177588423, 0.2865822968796854, 0.34652235376676843, 0.04803045757766193 ], "score": 77.27272727272728 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.441237808923071, "unitPlayers": [ "Kirby Dach", "Owen Beck", "Jake Evans" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": 4, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 47 } }, { "id": "8480865", "name": "Noah Dobson", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "CHI", "position": "D", "currentGP": 9, "currentSOG": 2.3333333333333335, "priorSOG": 1.975, "currentTOI": 21.577777777777776, "currentFiveTOI": 16.55740740740741, "ppShare": 0.23845138583369996, "rate": 2.11105389985156, "fifty": 2.220894494867679, "inputs": { "Player": "Noah Dobson", "Player_ID": "8480865", "Team": "MTL", "Opponent": "CHI", "Position": "D", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.6331113481011954, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.538610433199159, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 9, "Prior_GP": 80, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 7.247511464042053, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.97785277367644, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 13.194868662186927, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 16.923810185185186, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 16.55740740740741, "Current_PP_Share": 0.23845138583369996, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.2871315508021391, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 542.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2273.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 5, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.349074074074074, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 1.1005568330721447, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 1.0370427400563784, "Other_State_SOG": 0.21333333333333335, "Environment_Proxy": 1.1241623654244617, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.975, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 1", "ppUnit": "PP1 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-23", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:35:35.615148+00:00", "priorGP": 80.0, "currentTotalSOG": 21.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.0037037037037038, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.33 SOG/game in 9 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 9 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 23 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.572, "currentIXG": 0.17466666666666666, "priorTOI": 22.48375, "priorPPTOI": 1.3641666666666667, "deploymentChange": -0.9059722222222248, "ppTOIChange": -0.360462962962963, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020536", "date": "20251218", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "toi": 22.533333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2025020031", "date": "20251011", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 23.566666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020489", "date": "20241215", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 8.0, "goals": 1.0, "toi": 24.433333333333334 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 4.333333333333333, "opponentDefense": { "team": "CHI", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 275.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 30.555555555555557, "mostAllowedRank": 4, "fiveSogAllowed60": 29.037678778147054, "pkSogAllowed60": 51.98019801980198, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 47.0, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 88.0, "D": 70.0, "R": 50.0, "L": 67.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.777777777777779, "L": 7.444444444444445, "R": 5.555555555555555, "D": 7.777777777777778 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 30.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.8, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 30.555555555555557, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.777777777777778, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8481519", "team": "CHI", "name": "Spencer Knight", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-23T17:38:57.370Z", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-23", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.8878923766816144, "gaa": 3.589375448671931, "gsax": -1.0060000000000002, "goalsAllowed": 25.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 23.994, "shotsAgainst": 223.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0134476231189056, "factor": 1.0134476231189056, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter for October 23; Daily Faceoff confirmation.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.05845559589895267, "goalHistoryGoals": 22.0, "goalHistoryShots": 375.0, "goalExpected": 0.13041544375119826, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.1321692214876492, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.1222692925728765, "goalProbability": 0.123807288100798, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.15379955279214985, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 9, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 2.231017266108049, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 7.247511464042053, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 16.55740740740741, "Current_PP_Share": 0.23845138583369996, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.349074074074074, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.0370427400563784, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.3333333333333333, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0652555848758556, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0415262503506049, "Position_Factor": 0.9933299562396771, "Input_GP": 9, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 542.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2273.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.97785277367644, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 13.194868662186927, "Prior_5v5_Min": 17.77875, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.2871315508021391, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0278141974152464, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.34640522875817, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.0763026829027147, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.9825660640787044, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.1062391782035301, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0233683484416451, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 6.454091432961967, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 4.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five saved meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. Dated 2024–2026 regular-season appearances.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020536", "date": "20251218", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "toi": 22.533333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2025020031", "date": "20251011", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 23.566666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020489", "date": "20241215", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 8.0, "goals": 1.0, "toi": 24.433333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020464", "date": "20241212", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "toi": 22.65 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Lane Hutson", "Noah Dobson" ], "lineupSource": "NHL.com projected lineup", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:35:35.615148+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/montreal-canadiens/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-22T16:05:24.999Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 28, "priorAttempts": 182, "fitPct": 2.54342276342382, "index": 102.54342276342382, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 67.85714285714286, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.6823628774928636, "currentAttempts": 21, "priorAttempts": 104 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 4.1208791208791204, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.333228225851869, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 9 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 2.6373626373626378, "opponentDeltaPct": 17.724165752730244, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 12 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 12.087912087912088, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.874621784366013, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 16 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 9.615384615384617, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.336952686487635, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 34 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 3.6813186813186816, "opponentDeltaPct": -11.504840448330498, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 7 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 33, "fitPct": -0.5811311973765214, "index": 99.41886880262348, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 91.51515151515152, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.4028975883336443, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 26 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 13.01574130857064, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 1.2121212121212122, "opponentDeltaPct": 8.387003790885572, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 2.4242424242424243, "opponentDeltaPct": -19.944089475898465, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 3.6363636363636367, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.7605264681782984, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 1.2121212121212122, "opponentDeltaPct": -44.57933713730726, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 2.54342276342382, "zonePPFit": -0.5811311973765214, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October23 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported unit only. Expected PP minutes retain measured current-season deployment; no guessed transfer.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481519", "goalieName": "Spencer Knight", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8480865", "goals": 1, "sog": 9, "shootingPct": 0.1111111111111111, "gamesWithAttempts": 4, "recordedAttempts": 16, "log": [ { "goals": 1, "sog": 2, "attempts": 5, "gameId": "2025020536", "date": "20251218" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 3, "gameId": "2025020031", "date": "20251011" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 4, "attempts": 5, "gameId": "2024020130", "date": "20241026" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 3, "gameId": "2022020090", "date": "20221023" } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "window": "2021–22 through October21, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked attempts", "coverageNote": "Observed saved encounters only; missing is unavailable, not zero. Not independently established as complete career coverage." }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481519", "goalieName": "Spencer Knight", "opponent": "MTL", "games": 4, "availableGames": 4, "shotsAgainst": 118.0, "goalsAgainst": 13.0, "savePct": 0.8898305084745762, "gaa": 3.269526337851055, "gsax": 0.5030000000000001, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020536", "date": "20251218", "goalieTeam": "CHI", "opponent": "MTL", "shotsAgainst": 34.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3563.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.275 }, { "gameId": "2025020031", "date": "20251011", "goalieTeam": "CHI", "opponent": "MTL", "shotsAgainst": 28.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3585.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.45 }, { "gameId": "2024020566", "date": "20241228", "goalieTeam": "FLA", "opponent": "MTL", "shotsAgainst": 25.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3566.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.261 }, { "gameId": "2021021020", "date": "20220324", "goalieTeam": "FLA", "opponent": "MTL", "shotsAgainst": 31.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.517 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "coverageNote": "Last five observed goalie/team regular-season appearances. Historical coverage is not independently established as career-complete." }, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 2.545811689740394, "attemptProjection": 2.5682860677382773, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261021", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 42.0, "sog": 18.0, "seconds": 8941.0, "expectedMinutes": 16.55740740740741, "projectedAttempts": 4.666666666666668, "onNet": 0.41053725912449407, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0621717863909321, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0519965736844064 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 2.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 542.0, "expectedMinutes": 1.0370427400563784, "projectedAttempts": 0.229603558684069, "onNet": 0.4093886462882096, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.938442005242464, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.067787892452511 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 2.1766203238471276, "ppAdjusted": 0.04709522155887466, "other": 0.3333333333333333 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 2.5570488787393355, "baseline": 1.975, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 80.0, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 2.324229327243601, "adjustedSOG": 2.276548230722499, "reductionPct": 2.0514798588162186, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 2.1766203238471276, "afterPlayerForm": 2.1766203238471276, "afterRecentDefense": 2.1123837647991137, "afterRecentZones": 2.1642463625075297, "afterDefenseAndZones": 2.10037498460275, "adjusted": 2.10037498460275, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9704879356568364, "oldChartFactor": 1.0763026829027147, "newChartFactor": 1.0642635795601885, "playerRecentAttempts": 24.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 81.68333333333334, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.04246946687265, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.860962222987714, "defenseRecentMinutes": 241.91666666666666, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.04709522155887466, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0438720666014148, "afterRecentDefense": 0.04709522155887466, "afterRecentZones": 0.04709522155887466, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.04709522155887466, "adjusted": 0.0438720666014148, "playerFactor": 0.9315608919382504, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.9825660640787044, "newChartFactor": 0.9825660640787044, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 4.433333333333334, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.0, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0243821773082225, "defenseRecentMinutes": 25.916666666666668, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 2.276548230722499, "adjustedSOG": 2.231017266108049, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.0670391061452514, "goalHistoryGoals": 12.0, "goalHistoryShots": 179.0, "goalExpected": 0.14152316647049565, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.14152316647049565, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.13196493395678757, "goalProbability": 0.13196493395678757, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05766408052002516, "modelSOG": 2.231017266108049, "historyGames": 160, "seasonGames": { "2024": 71, "2025": 80, "2026": 9 }, "historyGoals": 22.0, "historyShots": 375.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.058666666666666666, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.05845559589895267, "goalieFactor": 1.0134476231189056, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 62.135853450834716, "btb": { "id": "8480865", "name": "Noah Dobson", "score": 62.135853450834716, "components": { "Goal model": 44.927536231884055, "SOG model": 84.05797101449275, "Unit attack": 90.9090909090909, "Opposing lines": 73.07692307692308, "Opposing pairs": 75.17482517482517, "PP": 50.714285714285715, "Shot quality": 59.42028985507246, "Goalie": 62.67605633802817, "Team H2H": 64.28571428571429, "Goalie H2H": 55.20030816640986 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": true, "games": 8, "exactGames": 7, "individualGames": 1, "roleGames": 0, "exactMinutes": 86.06666666666666, "exactWeight": 0.5892286627110909, "individualWeight": 0.22530664945125886, "venueGames": 3, "venueFallback": false, "shares": [ 0.26773550833577275, 0.21513319742187667, 0.1881368269473631, 0.16984040837701986, 0.15915405891796758 ], "units": [ { "unit": 1, "names": [ "Roman Kantserov", "Connor Bedard", "Patrick Kane" ], "share": 0.26773550833577275, "xGA60": 3.034330357181087 }, { "unit": 2, "names": [ "Tyler Bertuzzi", "Anton Frondell", "Teuvo Teravainen" ], "share": 0.21513319742187667, "xGA60": 2.9573904009618985 }, { "unit": 4, "names": [ "Cole Smith", "Ryan Greene", "Jordan Greenway" ], "share": 0.1881368269473631, "xGA60": 2.1366414316797844 }, { "unit": 3, "names": [ "Oliver Moore", "Frank Nazar", "Ryan Donato" ], "share": 0.16984040837701986, "xGA60": 2.6268627576253714 } ], "otherShare": 0.15915405891796758, "weightedXGA60": 2.781264134109059, "score": 73.07692307692308 }, "pair": { "available": true, "games": 8, "exactGames": 7, "individualGames": 1, "roleGames": 0, "exactMinutes": 86.06666666666666, "exactWeight": 0.5892286627110909, "individualWeight": 0.22530664945125886, "venueGames": 3, "venueFallback": false, "shares": [ 0.3248319064447023, 0.28089126081424, 0.2560409557532207, 0.13823587698783696 ], "units": [ { "unit": 2, "names": [ "Wyatt Kaiser", "Artyom Levshunov" ], "share": 0.3248319064447023, "xGA60": 2.7395083310694384 }, { "unit": 1, "names": [ "Alex Vlasic", "Ian Cole" ], "share": 0.28089126081424, "xGA60": 2.7281475578627203 }, { "unit": 3, "names": [ "Ethan Del Mastro", "Sam Rinzel" ], "share": 0.2560409557532207, "xGA60": 3.1610539346551283 } ], "otherShare": 0.13823587698783696, "weightedXGA60": 2.8863765112460067, "score": 75.17482517482517 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 3.5855578713970235, "unitPlayers": [ "Lane Hutson", "Noah Dobson" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": 9, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 13 } }, { "id": "8477404", "name": "Jake Guentzel", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "position": "R", "currentGP": 9, "currentSOG": 2.2222222222222223, "priorSOG": 2.7160493827160495, "currentTOI": 19.983333333333334, "currentFiveTOI": 13.54814814814815, "ppShare": 0.7779291553133515, "rate": 2.568840755187968, "fifty": 2.4593808502230643, "inputs": { "Player": "Jake Guentzel", "Player_ID": "8477404", "Team": "TBL", "Opponent": "COL", "Position": "C", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 2.51381018811952, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 2.5941926913310054, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 9, "Prior_GP": 81, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.90486604702023, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.888937955398543, "Current_PP_SOG60": 9.457092819614711, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 10.65933484904563, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 13.677222222222223, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 13.54814814814815, "Current_PP_Share": 0.7779291553133515, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.7681950660873252, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2284.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2936.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 5, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.612685185185185, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 3.574872203088273, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 3.5883422898375215, "Other_State_SOG": 0.38888888888888884, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9914667421548949, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 2.7160493827160495, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 2", "ppUnit": "PP1 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-23", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:35:35.615148+00:00", "priorGP": 81.0, "currentTotalSOG": 20.0, "currentPPTOI": 4.22962962962963, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.22 SOG/game in 9 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 9 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 23 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 3.651, "currentIXG": 0.4056666666666666, "priorTOI": 20.245884773662553, "priorPPTOI": 3.89156378600823, "deploymentChange": -0.2625514403292186, "ppTOIChange": 0.33806584362140013, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020668", "date": "20260106", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "toi": 18.633333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020209", "date": "20251104", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 17.3 }, { "gameId": "2024020334", "date": "20241125", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 2.0, "toi": 18.133333333333333 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 1.6666666666666667, "opponentDefense": { "team": "COL", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 273.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.3, "mostAllowedRank": 16, "fiveSogAllowed60": 27.02393375298751, "pkSogAllowed60": 47.51429828420589, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 40.2, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 100.0, "R": 60.0, "L": 45.0, "D": 68.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.0, "L": 4.5, "R": 6.0, "D": 6.8 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 29.0, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.8, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.3, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.0, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8478406", "team": "COL", "name": "Mackenzie Blackwood", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-23T16:26:32.640Z", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-23", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.8888888888888888, "gaa": 2.897734132893307, "gsax": -2.4450000000000003, "goalsAllowed": 20.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 17.555, "shotsAgainst": 180.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0252999843886221, "factor": 1.0252999843886221, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter for October 23; Daily Faceoff confirmation.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.17204310916650248, "goalHistoryGoals": 83.0, "goalHistoryShots": 457.0, "goalExpected": 0.3930826938289755, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.40302767984628607, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.32502707081772264, "goalProbability": 0.33170639919660083, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.6679328378878191, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 9, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 2.284791850910762, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.90486604702023, "Current_PP_SOG60": 9.457092819614711, "Current_5v5_Min": 13.54814814814815, "Current_PP_Share": 0.7779291553133515, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.612685185185185, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 3.5883422898375215, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.2222222222222222, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0289555868427727, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9996701327073623, "Position_Factor": 0.9858567030129328, "Input_GP": 9, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2284.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2936.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.888937955398543, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 10.65933484904563, "Prior_5v5_Min": 13.978395061728396, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.7681950660873252, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0573770491803278, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.382352941176471, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.9782150476864869, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.0426795902932906, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0343421405865312, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.042335644399752, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 6.667695632041982, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 10.074626865671641, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five saved meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. Dated 2024–2026 regular-season appearances.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020668", "date": "20260106", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "toi": 18.633333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020209", "date": "20251104", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 17.3 }, { "gameId": "2024020334", "date": "20241125", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 2.0, "toi": 18.133333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020157", "date": "20241030", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 2.0, "toi": 18.566666666666666 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Gage Goncalves", "Brayden Point", "Jake Guentzel" ], "lineupSource": "NHL.com projected lineup", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "rosterPosition": "L", "projectedPosition": "R", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:35:35.615148+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/tampa-bay-lightning/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-22T18:13:31.663Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 20, "priorAttempts": 196, "fitPct": -0.726165077117102, "index": 99.2738349228829, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 14.306122448979592, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.604370751696635, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 26 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 23.77551020408163, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.2025641924569896, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 43 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 39.163265306122454, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.26262818174886604, "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 89 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 3.877551020408163, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.0950116912032684, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 19 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 9.061224489795919, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.044692588641311204, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 15 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 9.816326530612244, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.6551158457307906, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 4 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 8, "priorAttempts": 73, "fitPct": 1.4226530097763543, "index": 101.42265300977635, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 0.547945205479452, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.125139957052596, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 11.883561643835616, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.208159137665604, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 8 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 75.13698630136986, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.03906538797926373, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 55 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.5428724091186723, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 12.431506849315069, "opponentDeltaPct": 15.136821787266058, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 9 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -37.289476773404765, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -0.726165077117102, "zonePPFit": 1.4226530097763543, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October23 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported unit only. Expected PP minutes retain measured current-season deployment; no guessed transfer.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478406", "goalieName": "Mackenzie Blackwood", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8477404", "goals": 1, "sog": 4, "shootingPct": 0.25, "gamesWithAttempts": 2, "recordedAttempts": 4, "log": [ { "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 3, "gameId": "2024020413", "date": "20241205" }, { "goals": 1, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1, "gameId": "2023020171", "date": "20231104" } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "window": "2021–22 through October21, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked attempts", "coverageNote": "Observed saved encounters only; missing is unavailable, not zero. Not independently established as complete career coverage." }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478406", "goalieName": "Mackenzie Blackwood", "opponent": "TBL", "games": 4, "availableGames": 4, "shotsAgainst": 99.0, "goalsAgainst": 15.0, "savePct": 0.8484848484848485, "gaa": 4.800426704595964, "gsax": -3.8269999999999995, "log": [ { "gameId": "2024020413", "date": "20241205", "goalieTeam": "SJS", "opponent": "TBL", "shotsAgainst": 23.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 2400.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.907 }, { "gameId": "2023021108", "date": "20240321", "goalieTeam": "SJS", "opponent": "TBL", "shotsAgainst": 21.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.592 }, { "gameId": "2023020106", "date": "20231026", "goalieTeam": "SJS", "opponent": "TBL", "shotsAgainst": 21.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 1649.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.962 }, { "gameId": "2021020264", "date": "20211120", "goalieTeam": "NJD", "opponent": "TBL", "shotsAgainst": 34.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.712 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "coverageNote": "Last five observed goalie/team regular-season appearances. Historical coverage is not independently established as career-complete." }, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 2.1908777148146914, "attemptProjection": 1.9837125385319392, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261021", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 24.0, "sog": 12.0, "seconds": 7316.0, "expectedMinutes": 13.54814814814815, "projectedAttempts": 2.6666666666666665, "onNet": 0.49448072319955383, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0290266956001277, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9868443082842028 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 8.0, "sog": 6.0, "seconds": 2284.0, "expectedMinutes": 3.5883422898375215, "projectedAttempts": 0.7541174689676052, "onNet": 0.5866461673621789, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9649306914974484, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9896116972997503 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.3590811646234768, "ppAdjusted": 0.5059917398276162, "other": 0.2222222222222222 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 2.0872951266733155, "baseline": 2.7160493827160495, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 81.0, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 2.338796829090409, "adjustedSOG": 2.33142025603139, "reductionPct": 0.3154003360731461, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.3590811646234768, "afterPlayerForm": 1.3590811646234768, "afterRecentDefense": 1.3590811646234768, "afterRecentZones": 1.358177685500694, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.358177685500694, "adjusted": 1.358177685500694, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.9782150476864869, "newChartFactor": 0.9769333680006786, "playerRecentAttempts": 15.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 69.3, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.0996873496873498, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0842659644502963, "defenseRecentMinutes": 251.61666666666667, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.5059917398276162, "afterPlayerForm": 0.49460093051870074, "afterRecentDefense": 0.5059917398276162, "afterRecentZones": 0.5059917398276162, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.5059917398276162, "adjusted": 0.49460093051870074, "playerFactor": 0.9774881516587678, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.0426795902932906, "newChartFactor": 1.0426795902932906, "playerRecentAttempts": 3.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 16.65, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.8573573573573573, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.594204503506829, "defenseRecentMinutes": 15.05, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 2.33142025603139, "adjustedSOG": 2.284791850910762, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.175, "goalHistoryGoals": 42.0, "goalHistoryShots": 240.0, "goalExpected": 0.4495471321578944, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.4495471321578944, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.3620830216979145, "goalProbability": 0.3620830216979145, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12828011805741885, "modelSOG": 2.284791850910762, "historyGames": 170, "seasonGames": { "2024": 80, "2025": 81, "2026": 9 }, "historyGoals": 83.0, "historyShots": 457.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.18161925601750548, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.17204310916650248, "goalieFactor": 1.0252999843886221, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 75.20850581796694, "btb": { "id": "8477404", "name": "Jake Guentzel", "score": 75.20850581796694, "components": { "Goal model": 92.7536231884058, "SOG model": 86.95652173913044, "Unit attack": 93.33333333333333, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 55.35714285714286, "Shot quality": 94.20289855072464, "Goalie": 88.02816901408451, "Team H2H": 60.329670329670336, "Goalie H2H": 51.68350168350168 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 3.347857195742634, "unitPlayers": [ "Gage Goncalves", "Brayden Point", "Jake Guentzel" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": 4, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 2 } }, { "id": "8475172", "name": "Nazem Kadri", "team": "COL", "opponent": "TBL", "position": "R", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 2.7, "priorSOG": 2.7662337662337664, "currentTOI": 20.341666666666665, "currentFiveTOI": 15.741666666666665, "ppShare": 0.6469824789097989, "rate": 2.516298709400071, "fifty": 2.487686831102132, "inputs": { "Player": "Nazem Kadri", "Player_ID": "8475172", "Team": "COL", "Opponent": "TBL", "Position": "C", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 2.435597120686711, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 2.5935519961065534, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 10, "Prior_GP": 77, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.717310746426681, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 8.098928083047833, "Current_PP_SOG60": 18.05416248746239, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 10.926801722312415, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 15.435335497835496, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 15.741666666666665, "Current_PP_Share": 0.6469824789097989, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.5597845336481699, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1994.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3082.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 5, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.795185185185185, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 2.976961709353508, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 3.1024007979426544, "Other_State_SOG": 0.19532467532467535, "Environment_Proxy": 0.8844868901771036, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 2.7662337662337664, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 2", "ppUnit": "PP1 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-23", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:35:35.615148+00:00", "priorGP": 77.0, "currentTotalSOG": 27.0, "currentPPTOI": 3.3233333333333333, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.70 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 23 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 3.785, "currentIXG": 0.3785, "priorTOI": 19.033549783549784, "priorPPTOI": 3.0664502164502165, "deploymentChange": 1.308116883116881, "ppTOIChange": 0.2568831168831167, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020362", "date": "20251126", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "away", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 19.85 }, { "gameId": "2024020936", "date": "20250227", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 18.483333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020470", "date": "20241212", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "toi": 18.316666666666666 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 3, "h2hSOG": 3.6666666666666665, "opponentDefense": { "team": "TBL", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 218.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 24.22222222222222, "mostAllowedRank": 29, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.310572168589594, "pkSogAllowed60": 47.9002079002079, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 36.333333333333336, "positionUnassignedSOG": 1.0, "positionTotals": { "L": 36.0, "R": 49.0, "D": 66.0, "C": 66.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.333333333333333, "L": 4.0, "R": 5.444444444444445, "D": 7.333333333333333 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 24.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.25, "positionSourceDifference": 1.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 24.22222222222222, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.444444444444445, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8476883", "team": "TBL", "name": "Andrei Vasilevskiy", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-23T17:44:29.480Z", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-23", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.8975903614457832, "gaa": 2.4556616643929057, "gsax": 1.495000000000001, "goalsAllowed": 17.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 18.495, "shotsAgainst": 166.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9911791106382869, "factor": 0.9911791106382869, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter for October 23; Daily Faceoff confirmation.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.1031724796439346, "goalHistoryGoals": 51.0, "goalHistoryShots": 519.0, "goalExpected": 0.25467874766418475, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.2524322546082593, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.22483451831272683, "goalProbability": 0.22309115694951465, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.17433613632121814, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 2.4684755910018206, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.717310746426681, "Current_PP_SOG60": 18.05416248746239, "Current_5v5_Min": 15.741666666666665, "Current_PP_Share": 0.6469824789097989, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.795185185185185, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 3.1024007979426544, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.2, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9588832837562793, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0032616490671127, "Position_Factor": 0.985038993166415, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1994.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3082.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 8.098928083047833, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 10.926801722312415, "Prior_5v5_Min": 14.72056277056277, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.5597845336481699, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.005464480874317, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.382352941176471, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.8247150494782379, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.0271340103582585, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0304841610449431, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 6.013602195442071, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 18.967334035827186, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 3.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 5.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five saved meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. Dated 2024–2026 regular-season appearances.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020362", "date": "20251126", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "away", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 19.85 }, { "gameId": "2024020936", "date": "20250227", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 18.483333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020470", "date": "20241212", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "toi": 18.316666666666666 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Gabriel Landeskog", "Brock Nelson", "Nazem Kadri" ], "lineupSource": "NHL.com projected lineup", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "rosterPosition": "C", "projectedPosition": "R", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:35:35.615148+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/colorado-avalanche/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-22T17:33:02.593Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 22, "priorAttempts": 226, "fitPct": -5.842831684058737, "index": 94.15716831594126, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 13.668543845534995, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.515281930842562, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 31 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 12.357200321802091, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.609652563126957, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 39 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 28.503620273531777, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.85621916135625, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 84 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 31.802091713596138, "opponentDeltaPct": -12.897287560223589, "currentAttempts": 9, "priorAttempts": 41 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 11.54465004022526, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.418201733515886, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 19 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 2.1238938053097347, "opponentDeltaPct": -11.722552252061064, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 12 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 10, "priorAttempts": 75, "fitPct": 0.9044670119419465, "index": 100.90446701194195, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 2.1333333333333337, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.0484005739127014, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 15.2, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.8060162233483652, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 48.266666666666666, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.6036826641455946, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 23 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 9.2, "opponentDeltaPct": -15.514716416172803, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 24.666666666666668, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.241804509586572, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 35 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.5333333333333334, "opponentDeltaPct": 40.87182317476231, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -5.842831684058737, "zonePPFit": 0.9044670119419465, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October23 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported unit only. Expected PP minutes retain measured current-season deployment; no guessed transfer.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476883", "goalieName": "Andrei Vasilevskiy", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8475172", "goals": 2, "sog": 29, "shootingPct": 0.06896551724137931, "gamesWithAttempts": 9, "recordedAttempts": 40, "log": [ { "goals": 0, "sog": 5, "attempts": 6, "gameId": "2025020362", "date": "20251126" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 4, "attempts": 8, "gameId": "2024020936", "date": "20250227" }, { "goals": 1, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2, "gameId": "2024020470", "date": "20241212" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1, "gameId": "2023020999", "date": "20240307" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 4, "gameId": "2023020471", "date": "20231216" }, { "goals": 1, "sog": 3, "attempts": 4, "gameId": "2022020733", "date": "20230121" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 4, "gameId": "2022020260", "date": "20221117" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 4, "attempts": 5, "gameId": "2021020477", "date": "20220210" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 4, "attempts": 6, "gameId": "2021020068", "date": "20211023" } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "window": "2021–22 through October21, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked attempts", "coverageNote": "Observed saved encounters only; missing is unavailable, not zero. Not independently established as complete career coverage." }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476883", "goalieName": "Andrei Vasilevskiy", "opponent": "COL", "games": 5, "availableGames": 13, "shotsAgainst": 157.0, "goalsAgainst": 12.0, "savePct": 0.9235668789808917, "gaa": 2.4254674077817078, "gsax": 7.298, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020668", "date": "20260106", "goalieTeam": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "shotsAgainst": 33.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.223 }, { "gameId": "2025020209", "date": "20251104", "goalieTeam": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "shotsAgainst": 33.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3420.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.409 }, { "gameId": "2024020334", "date": "20241125", "goalieTeam": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "shotsAgainst": 25.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.459 }, { "gameId": "2024020157", "date": "20241030", "goalieTeam": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "shotsAgainst": 35.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.364 }, { "gameId": "2023020842", "date": "20240215", "goalieTeam": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "shotsAgainst": 31.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3591.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.843 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "coverageNote": "Last five observed goalie/team regular-season appearances. Historical coverage is not independently established as career-complete." }, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 2.4369784002486754, "attemptProjection": 2.2756647172614746, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261021", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 31.0, "sog": 15.0, "seconds": 9445.0, "expectedMinutes": 15.741666666666665, "projectedAttempts": 3.0999999999999996, "onNet": 0.49731338323824104, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9399951775173531, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9886177218479464 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 12.0, "sog": 10.0, "seconds": 1994.0, "expectedMinutes": 3.1024007979426544, "projectedAttempts": 1.120224962145793, "onNet": 0.5882352941176471, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9635919869864824, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0126481883452998 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.3538344895108443, "ppAdjusted": 0.8024870692442306, "other": 0.2 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 2.356321558755075, "baseline": 2.7662337662337664, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 77.0, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 2.520286441746552, "adjustedSOG": 2.4684755910018206, "reductionPct": 2.0557524687085382, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.3538344895108443, "afterPlayerForm": 1.3460705641229684, "afterRecentDefense": 1.3104777723111696, "afterRecentZones": 1.3538344895108443, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.3104777723111698, "adjusted": 1.302962487595407, "playerFactor": 0.9942652329749104, "defenseFactor": 0.9394742011803996, "oldChartFactor": 0.8247150494782379, "newChartFactor": 0.821115989464444, "playerRecentAttempts": 16.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 84.0, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.9672299027137736, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.7156802561417446, "defenseRecentMinutes": 244.35, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.8024870692442306, "afterPlayerForm": 0.7670076532517826, "afterRecentDefense": 0.8024870692442306, "afterRecentZones": 0.8024870692442306, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.8024870692442306, "adjusted": 0.7670076532517826, "playerFactor": 0.9557881773399015, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.0271340103582585, "newChartFactor": 1.0271340103582585, "playerRecentAttempts": 5.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 18.833333333333332, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.7352507374631269, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.04528859527121, "defenseRecentMinutes": 23.966666666666665, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 2.4684755910018206, "adjustedSOG": 2.4684755910018206, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.06666666666666667, "goalHistoryGoals": 16.0, "goalHistoryShots": 240.0, "goalExpected": 0.16775324729333807, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.16775324729333807, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.15443754623094244, "goalProbability": 0.15443754623094244, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12863764899595517, "modelSOG": 2.4684755910018206, "historyGames": 169, "seasonGames": { "2024": 82, "2025": 77, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 51.0, "historyShots": 519.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.09826589595375723, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.1031724796439346, "goalieFactor": 0.9911791106382869, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 61.09971287032862, "btb": { "id": "8475172", "name": "Nazem Kadri", "score": 61.09971287032862, "components": { "Goal model": 79.71014492753623, "SOG model": 92.7536231884058, "Unit attack": 73.33333333333333, "Opposing lines": 27.685950413223143, "Opposing pairs": 38.311688311688314, "PP": 75.0, "Shot quality": 92.7536231884058, "Goalie": 11.971830985915492, "Team H2H": 54.437869822485204, "Goalie H2H": 37.48561565017261 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": true, "weightedXGA60": 2.0885581411195586, "games": 6, "exactGames": 5, "shares": [ 0.28506518270294967, 0.2814670312028723, 0.23787322774956632, 0.1955945583446116 ], "score": 27.685950413223143 }, "pair": { "available": true, "weightedXGA60": 2.3061982898948314, "games": 2, "exactGames": 1, "shares": [ 0.2814590834430624, 0.3394715252135586, 0.2774803531892856, 0.10158903815409338 ], "score": 38.311688311688314 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 3.0991299369671528, "unitPlayers": [ "Gabriel Landeskog", "Brock Nelson", "Nazem Kadri" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 3, "goalieH2HShots": 29, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 14 } }, { "id": "8484220", "name": "David Reinbacher", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "CHI", "position": "D", "currentGP": 1, "currentSOG": 1.0, "priorSOG": 1.5, "currentTOI": 9.15, "currentFiveTOI": 9.15, "ppShare": 0.0, "rate": 1.389576238809398, "fifty": 1.236250735297252, "inputs": { "Player": "David Reinbacher", "Player_ID": "8484220", "Team": "MTL", "Opponent": "CHI", "Position": "D", "Current_GP": 1, "Prior_GP": 2, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 6.557377049180328, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 7.322033898305085, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 10.0925, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 9.15, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0, "Prior_PP_Share": 0, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 335.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 1, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Measured game-matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Historical skater-team PP minute approximation, existing hybrid method", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.349074074074074, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.0, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.0, "Other_State_SOG": 0.0, "Environment_Proxy": 1.1241623654244617, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.5, "Status": "Historical input object restored from saved prior summaries", "Availability_Note": "Conditional on dressing", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.3043096952455784, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.162210194195949 }, "status": "Not on projected lineup", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "PP assignment pending", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-23", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:35:35.615148+00:00", "priorGP": 2.0, "currentTotalSOG": 1.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.0, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.00 SOG/game in 1 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 1 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Not listed on latest projected chart; October 23 dressing status unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.023, "currentIXG": 0.023, "priorTOI": 13.141666666666667, "priorPPTOI": 0.0, "deploymentChange": -3.991666666666667, "ppTOIChange": 0.0, "h2hLog": [], "h2hGames": 0, "h2hAvailableGames": 0, "h2hSOG": null, "opponentDefense": { "team": "CHI", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 275.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 30.555555555555557, "mostAllowedRank": 4, "fiveSogAllowed60": 29.037678778147054, "pkSogAllowed60": 51.98019801980198, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 47.0, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 88.0, "D": 70.0, "R": 50.0, "L": 67.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.777777777777779, "L": 7.444444444444445, "R": 5.555555555555555, "D": 7.777777777777778 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 30.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.8, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 30.555555555555557, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.777777777777778, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8481519", "team": "CHI", "name": "Spencer Knight", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-23T17:38:57.370Z", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-23", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.8878923766816144, "gaa": 3.589375448671931, "gsax": -1.0060000000000002, "goalsAllowed": 25.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 23.994, "shotsAgainst": 223.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0134476231189056, "factor": 1.0134476231189056, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter for October 23; Daily Faceoff confirmation.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.0554597047598064, "goalHistoryGoals": 0.0, "goalHistoryShots": 4.0, "goalExpected": 0.0635548539609551, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.06440951568439911, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.06157735831014515, "goalProbability": 0.06237904958618746, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.08016912760423073, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 1, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.1459645202982678, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 6.557377049180328, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 9.15, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.349074074074074, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.0, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0652555848758556, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0415262503506049, "Position_Factor": 0.9933299562396771, "Input_GP": 1, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 335.0, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0278141974152464, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.34640522875817, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.0504708863247858, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0796888909359923, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0415262503506049, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 6.557377049180328, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [], "h2hWindow": "Last five saved meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. Dated 2024–2026 regular-season appearances.", "h2hFullLog": [], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "NHL.com projected lineup", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 4, "fitPct": 1.6823628774928636, "index": 101.68236287749286, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 100.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.6823628774928636, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.333228225851869, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 17.724165752730244, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.874621784366013, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.336952686487635, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -11.504840448330498, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 1.6823628774928636, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October23 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported unit only. Expected PP minutes retain measured current-season deployment; no guessed transfer.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481519", "goalieName": "Spencer Knight", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8484220", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "window": "2021–22 through October21, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked attempts", "coverageNote": "Observed saved encounters only; missing is unavailable, not zero. Not independently established as complete career coverage." }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481519", "goalieName": "Spencer Knight", "opponent": "MTL", "games": 4, "availableGames": 4, "shotsAgainst": 118.0, "goalsAgainst": 13.0, "savePct": 0.8898305084745762, "gaa": 3.269526337851055, "gsax": 0.5030000000000001, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020536", "date": "20251218", "goalieTeam": "CHI", "opponent": "MTL", "shotsAgainst": 34.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3563.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.275 }, { "gameId": "2025020031", "date": "20251011", "goalieTeam": "CHI", "opponent": "MTL", "shotsAgainst": 28.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3585.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.45 }, { "gameId": "2024020566", "date": "20241228", "goalieTeam": "FLA", "opponent": "MTL", "shotsAgainst": 25.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3566.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.261 }, { "gameId": "2021021020", "date": "20220324", "goalieTeam": "FLA", "opponent": "MTL", "shotsAgainst": 31.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.517 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "coverageNote": "Last five observed goalie/team regular-season appearances. Historical coverage is not independently established as career-complete." }, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.0796888909359925, "attemptProjection": 0.8926069652960417, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261021", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 2.0, "sog": 1.0, "seconds": 549.0, "expectedMinutes": 9.15, "projectedAttempts": 2.0, "onNet": 0.39941207383564337, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0621717863909321, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0519965736844064 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 0.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.0, "projectedAttempts": 0, "onNet": 0.425764192139738, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.938442005242464, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.067787892452511 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.986147928116017, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.986147928116017, "baseline": 1.5, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 2.0, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.1916887568696102, "adjustedSOG": 1.169351551324763, "reductionPct": 1.8744160684643685, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.986147928116017, "afterPlayerForm": 0.986147928116017, "afterRecentDefense": 0.9570446670095798, "afterRecentZones": 0.9777754234169841, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.9489192522079382, "adjusted": 0.9489192522079382, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9704879356568364, "oldChartFactor": 1.0504708863247858, "newChartFactor": 1.034179022055761, "playerRecentAttempts": 2.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 9.15, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.860962222987714, "defenseRecentMinutes": 241.91666666666666, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.0, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0243821773082225, "defenseRecentMinutes": 25.916666666666668, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.169351551324763, "adjustedSOG": 1.1459645202982678, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.0, "goalHistoryGoals": 0.0, "goalHistoryShots": 4.0, "goalExpected": 0.0, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.0, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.0, "goalProbability": 0.0, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05767809295019865, "modelSOG": 1.1459645202982678, "historyGames": 3, "seasonGames": { "2025": 2, "2026": 1 }, "historyGoals": 0.0, "historyShots": 4.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.0, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.0554597047598064, "goalieFactor": 1.0134476231189056, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8481523", "name": "Kirby Dach", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "CHI", "position": "L", "currentGP": 9, "currentSOG": 0.4444444444444444, "priorSOG": 1.2702702702702702, "currentTOI": 9.818518518518518, "currentFiveTOI": 8.87037037037037, "ppShare": 0.11658600967883855, "rate": 1.1167784345536622, "fifty": 0.8415409405279249, "inputs": { "Player": "Kirby Dach", "Player_ID": "8481523", "Team": "MTL", "Opponent": "CHI", "Position": "C", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 0.8537282377537578, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 0.5800063416400274, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 9, "Prior_GP": 37, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.0062630480167014, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.07378524295141, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 2.3896448722203782, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 9.813583583583583, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 8.87037037037037, "Current_PP_Share": 0.11658600967883855, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.2856667148431855, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 265.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2273.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 5, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.349074074074074, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.7276445454709128, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.5070411920939858, "Other_State_SOG": 0.0, "Environment_Proxy": 1.1241623654244617, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.2702702702702702, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 4", "ppUnit": "PP assignment pending", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-23", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:35:35.615148+00:00", "priorGP": 37.0, "currentTotalSOG": 4.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.49074074074074076, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.44 SOG/game in 9 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 9 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 23 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.491, "currentIXG": 0.05455555555555555, "priorTOI": 13.657207207207207, "priorPPTOI": 1.3572072072072072, "deploymentChange": -3.8386886886886895, "ppTOIChange": -0.8664664664664665, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020031", "date": "20251011", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 14.2 }, { "gameId": "2024020616", "date": "20250103", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 15.366666666666667 } ], "h2hGames": 2, "h2hAvailableGames": 2, "h2hSOG": 0.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "CHI", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 275.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 30.555555555555557, "mostAllowedRank": 4, "fiveSogAllowed60": 29.037678778147054, "pkSogAllowed60": 51.98019801980198, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 47.0, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 88.0, "D": 70.0, "R": 50.0, "L": 67.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.777777777777779, "L": 7.444444444444445, "R": 5.555555555555555, "D": 7.777777777777778 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 30.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.8, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 30.555555555555557, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.444444444444445, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8481519", "team": "CHI", "name": "Spencer Knight", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-23T17:38:57.370Z", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-23", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.8878923766816144, "gaa": 3.589375448671931, "gsax": -1.0060000000000002, "goalsAllowed": 25.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 23.994, "shotsAgainst": 223.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0134476231189056, "factor": 1.0134476231189056, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter for October 23; Daily Faceoff confirmation.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.13127294503210882, "goalHistoryGoals": 18.0, "goalHistoryShots": 135.0, "goalExpected": 0.11714997348027949, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.11872536217203207, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.11054821102021758, "goalProbability": 0.11194834014706292, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.14001291268453397, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 9, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 0.8924152151201079, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.0062630480167014, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 8.87037037037037, "Current_PP_Share": 0.11658600967883855, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.349074074074074, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.5070411920939858, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0652555848758556, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0415262503506049, "Position_Factor": 0.9905286689152091, "Input_GP": 9, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 265.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2273.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.07378524295141, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 2.3896448722203782, "Prior_5v5_Min": 12.014414414414414, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.2856667148431855, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.15, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.062091503267974, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.2138488569583858, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0415262503506049, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 2.580028666985189, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 0.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 0.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five saved meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. Dated 2024–2026 regular-season appearances.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020031", "date": "20251011", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 14.2 }, { "gameId": "2024020616", "date": "20250103", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 15.366666666666667 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Kirby Dach", "Owen Beck", "Jake Evans" ], "lineupSource": "NHL.com projected lineup", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "rosterPosition": "R", "projectedPosition": "L", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:35:35.615148+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 12, "priorAttempts": 71, "fitPct": 7.128295231946197, "index": 107.1282952319462, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 13.380281690140844, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.6823628774928636, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 11.19718309859155, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.333228225851869, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 11 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 28.52112676056338, "opponentDeltaPct": 17.724165752730244, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 24 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 13.943661971830984, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.874621784366013, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 27.88732394366197, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.336952686487635, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 14 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 5.070422535211268, "opponentDeltaPct": -11.504840448330498, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 9 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 8, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 7.128295231946197, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October23 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported unit only. Expected PP minutes retain measured current-season deployment; no guessed transfer.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481519", "goalieName": "Spencer Knight", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8481523", "goals": 2, "sog": 3, "shootingPct": 0.6666666666666666, "gamesWithAttempts": 2, "recordedAttempts": 4, "log": [ { "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 1, "gameId": "2025020031", "date": "20251011" }, { "goals": 2, "sog": 3, "attempts": 3, "gameId": "2024020566", "date": "20241228" } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "window": "2021–22 through October21, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked attempts", "coverageNote": "Observed saved encounters only; missing is unavailable, not zero. Not independently established as complete career coverage." }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481519", "goalieName": "Spencer Knight", "opponent": "MTL", "games": 4, "availableGames": 4, "shotsAgainst": 118.0, "goalsAgainst": 13.0, "savePct": 0.8898305084745762, "gaa": 3.269526337851055, "gsax": 0.5030000000000001, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020536", "date": "20251218", "goalieTeam": "CHI", "opponent": "MTL", "shotsAgainst": 34.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3563.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.275 }, { "gameId": "2025020031", "date": "20251011", "goalieTeam": "CHI", "opponent": "MTL", "shotsAgainst": 28.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3585.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.45 }, { "gameId": "2024020566", "date": "20241228", "goalieTeam": "FLA", "opponent": "MTL", "shotsAgainst": 25.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3566.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.261 }, { "gameId": "2021021020", "date": "20220324", "goalieTeam": "FLA", "opponent": "MTL", "shotsAgainst": 31.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.517 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "coverageNote": "Last five observed goalie/team regular-season appearances. Historical coverage is not independently established as career-complete." }, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.5111111111111111, "attemptProjection": 0.835961122122545, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261021", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 14.0, "sog": 4.0, "seconds": 4790.0, "expectedMinutes": 8.87037037037037, "projectedAttempts": 1.5555555555555556, "onNet": 0.44866435562805873, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0621717863909321, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0519965736844064 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 1.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 265.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.5070411920939858, "projectedAttempts": 0.11480177934203452, "onNet": 0.48768225238813473, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.938442005242464, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.067787892452511 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.6454851387321348, "ppAdjusted": 0.028050977884693358, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.6735361166168281, "baseline": 1.2702702702702702, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 37.0, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.9122297780782049, "adjustedSOG": 0.9106277705307224, "reductionPct": 0.17561447630634053, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.6454851387321348, "afterPlayerForm": 0.6454851387321348, "afterRecentDefense": 0.6454851387321348, "afterRecentZones": 0.6439897273301955, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.6439897273301955, "adjusted": 0.6439897273301955, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.2138488569583858, "newChartFactor": 1.2067458870504126, "playerRecentAttempts": 8.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 43.2, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.0559964726631392, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.1957808652607136, "defenseRecentMinutes": 241.91666666666666, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.028050977884693358, "afterPlayerForm": 0.026876376707494917, "afterRecentDefense": 0.028050977884693358, "afterRecentZones": 0.028050977884693358, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.028050977884693358, "adjusted": 0.026876376707494917, "playerFactor": 0.9581261950286807, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 2.433333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.0, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0243821773082225, "defenseRecentMinutes": 25.916666666666668, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.9106277705307224, "adjustedSOG": 0.8924152151201079, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.1568627450980392, "goalHistoryGoals": 8.0, "goalHistoryShots": 51.0, "goalExpected": 0.1751809309103784, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.1751809309103784, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.16069484921438246, "goalProbability": 0.16069484921438246, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12849142082545573, "modelSOG": 0.8924152151201079, "historyGames": 103, "seasonGames": { "2024": 57, "2025": 37, "2026": 9 }, "historyGoals": 18.0, "historyShots": 135.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.13333333333333333, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.13127294503210882, "goalieFactor": 1.0134476231189056, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 42.95457617562831, "btb": { "id": "8481523", "name": "Kirby Dach", "score": 42.95457617562831, "components": { "Goal model": 42.028985507246375, "SOG model": 14.492753623188406, "Unit attack": 26.666666666666668, "Opposing lines": 62.396694214876035, "Opposing pairs": 77.27272727272728, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 10.144927536231885, "Goalie": 62.67605633802817, "Team H2H": 44.23076923076923, "Goalie H2H": 52.57289879931389 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": true, "weightedXGA60": 2.7155000049715925, "games": 6, "exactGames": 1, "shares": [ 0.2580287752270173, 0.2843369737870208, 0.23226186850548228, 0.22537238248047964 ], "score": 62.396694214876035 }, "pair": { "available": true, "weightedXGA60": 2.8969644436281996, "games": 6, "exactGames": 1, "shares": [ 0.31886489177588423, 0.2865822968796854, 0.34652235376676843, 0.04803045757766193 ], "score": 77.27272727272728 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.441237808923071, "unitPlayers": [ "Kirby Dach", "Owen Beck", "Jake Evans" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 2, "goalieH2HShots": 3, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 51 } }, { "id": "8484185", "name": "Nick Lardis", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "MTL", "position": "L", "currentGP": 6, "currentSOG": 1.0, "priorSOG": 1.3902439024390243, "currentTOI": 10.952777777777778, "currentFiveTOI": 9.555555555555555, "ppShare": 0.27871054398925454, "rate": 1.2226972600508548, "fifty": 1.140400939172732, "inputs": { "Player": "Nick Lardis", "Player_ID": "8484185", "Team": "CHI", "Opponent": "MTL", "Position": "L", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.336119581237346, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.2456923195642828, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 6, "Prior_GP": 41, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.232558139534884, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.740987983978638, "Current_PP_SOG60": 8.674698795180722, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 10.431758910460736, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 9.977181571815716, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 9.555555555555555, "Current_PP_Share": 0.27871054398925454, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.32416457152399586, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 415.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1489.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 6, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.173148148148148, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 1.5123530600175417, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 1.441810934507375, "Other_State_SOG": 0.04390243902439025, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9555676582468344, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.3902439024390243, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Not on projected lineup", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "PP assignment pending", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-23", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:35:35.615148+00:00", "priorGP": 41.0, "currentTotalSOG": 6.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.152777777777778, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.00 SOG/game in 6 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 6 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Not listed on latest projected chart; October 23 dressing status unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.6, "currentIXG": 0.09999999999999999, "priorTOI": 12.671138211382113, "priorPPTOI": 1.4028455284552845, "deploymentChange": -1.7183604336043352, "ppTOIChange": -0.25006775067750664, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020536", "date": "20251218", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 13.533333333333333 } ], "h2hGames": 1, "h2hAvailableGames": 1, "h2hSOG": 0.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "MTL", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 237.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 26.333333333333332, "mostAllowedRank": 20, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.983070773571598, "pkSogAllowed60": 45.93967517401392, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 38.666666666666664, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 76.0, "D": 64.0, "R": 52.0, "L": 45.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 8.444444444444445, "L": 5.0, "R": 5.777777777777778, "D": 7.111111111111111 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 25.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 3, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27.333333333333332, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 26.333333333333332, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.0, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8484170", "team": "MTL", "name": "Jacob Fowler", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-23T17:12:10.576Z", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-23", "games": 4, "savePct": 0.9, "gaa": 2.163895011019836, "gsax": 2.1389999999999993, "goalsAllowed": 9.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 11.139, "shotsAgainst": 90.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9828963086689823, "factor": 0.9828963086689823, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter for October 23; Daily Faceoff confirmation.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.14017194360928484, "goalHistoryGoals": 10.0, "goalHistoryShots": 63.0, "goalExpected": 0.14915181080565365, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.1466007642721714, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.13856167067491798, "goalProbability": 0.13636129597526633, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.2200374699651647, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 6, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.0640632280979088, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.232558139534884, "Current_PP_SOG60": 8.674698795180722, "Current_5v5_Min": 9.555555555555555, "Current_PP_Share": 0.27871054398925454, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.173148148148148, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.441810934507375, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9711545151193198, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9819199317155711, "Position_Factor": 1.0025538171453592, "Input_GP": 6, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 415.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1489.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.740987983978638, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 10.431758910460736, "Prior_5v5_Min": 10.960975609756098, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.32416457152399586, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9941897998708845, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.062091503267974, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.9271514596618231, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.25, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9217645241311864, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.15, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.232558139534884, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 8.674698795180722, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 0.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five saved meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. Dated 2024–2026 regular-season appearances.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020536", "date": "20251218", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 13.533333333333333 } ], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "NHL.com projected lineup", "isHome": true, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 8, "priorAttempts": 71, "fitPct": -2.4282846779392315, "index": 97.57171532206077, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 22.32394366197183, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.711511602468903, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 13 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 29.26056338028169, "opponentDeltaPct": -5.805766108288097, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 12 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 18.204225352112676, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.5231164238779513, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 19 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 13.133802816901408, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.4830868449991215, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 10 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 15.950704225352114, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.49406869911976514, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 15 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 1.1267605633802817, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.365981626756792, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 17, "fitPct": 17.586692728095656, "index": 117.58669272809566, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 4.705882352941177, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.8191755597579373, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 2.3529411764705883, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.365371878175409, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.116979926964163, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.921488030021976, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 92.94117647058823, "opponentDeltaPct": 19.17564972004449, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 14 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 88.51112253515706, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -2.4282846779392315, "zonePPFit": 17.586692728095656, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October23 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported unit only. Expected PP minutes retain measured current-season deployment; no guessed transfer.", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8484170", "goalieName": "Jacob Fowler", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8484185", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "window": "2021–22 through October21, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked attempts", "coverageNote": "Observed saved encounters only; missing is unavailable, not zero. Not independently established as complete career coverage." }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8484170", "goalieName": "Jacob Fowler", "opponent": "CHI", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "coverageNote": "Last five observed goalie/team regular-season appearances. Historical coverage is not independently established as career-complete." }, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.0078598853246044, "attemptProjection": 0.8182702618449011, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261021", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 9.0, "sog": 5.0, "seconds": 3440.0, "expectedMinutes": 9.555555555555555, "projectedAttempts": 1.5, "onNet": 0.5015520935045251, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.916154770019487, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0295873524263528 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 1.0, "sog": 1.0, "seconds": 415.0, "expectedMinutes": 1.441810934507375, "projectedAttempts": 0.20845459294082536, "onNet": 0.56912701386287, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9091960351585663, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0070808959552022 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.7388895856274444, "ppAdjusted": 0.17417548795730822, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.9130650735847528, "baseline": 1.3902439024390243, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 41.0, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.1039366051264614, "adjustedSOG": 1.0640632280979088, "reductionPct": 3.6119263410044233, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.7388895856274444, "afterPlayerForm": 0.7388895856274444, "afterRecentDefense": 0.69092928510865, "afterRecentZones": 0.7388895856274444, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.6909292851086499, "adjusted": 0.6909292851086499, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9350913838120104, "oldChartFactor": 0.9271514596618231, "newChartFactor": 0.9271514596618231, "playerRecentAttempts": 8.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 47.0, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.0843183609141056, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.6952186350633428, "defenseRecentMinutes": 244.7, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.17417548795730822, "afterPlayerForm": 0.1601254262561216, "afterRecentDefense": 0.16934017590984254, "afterRecentZones": 0.1741754879573082, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.16934017590984254, "adjusted": 0.15568016009518182, "playerFactor": 0.9193338748984565, "defenseFactor": 0.9722388488519644, "oldChartFactor": 1.25, "newChartFactor": 1.25, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 5.516666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.0, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8240542632130013, "defenseRecentMinutes": 33.28333333333333, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.0640632280979088, "adjustedSOG": 1.0640632280979088, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.15873015873015872, "goalHistoryGoals": 10.0, "goalHistoryShots": 63.0, "goalExpected": 0.19407893016680233, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.19407893016680233, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.17640710462158013, "goalProbability": 0.17640710462158013, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12848026808313429, "modelSOG": 1.0640632280979088, "historyGames": 47, "seasonGames": { "2025": 41, "2026": 6 }, "historyGoals": 10.0, "historyShots": 63.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.15873015873015872, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.14017194360928484, "goalieFactor": 0.9828963086689823, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8481568", "name": "Alex Vlasic", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "MTL", "position": "D", "currentGP": 9, "currentSOG": 0.5555555555555556, "priorSOG": 1.075, "currentTOI": 20.037037037037038, "currentFiveTOI": 16.633333333333333, "ppShare": 0.010285179990649837, "rate": 0.9590103375596184, "fifty": 0.819910916394103, "inputs": { "Player": "Alex Vlasic", "Player_ID": "8481568", "Team": "CHI", "Opponent": "MTL", "Position": "D", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.0928390569979805, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 0.9743740173216583, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 9, "Prior_GP": 80, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.004008016032064, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.3010827269200473, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 18.227848101265824, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 16.959770833333334, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 16.633333333333333, "Current_PP_Share": 0.010285179990649837, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.0190156666032712, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 22.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2139.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 6, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.173148148148148, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.06675599001775491, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.05320675982200059, "Other_State_SOG": 0.06750000000000002, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9555676582468344, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.075, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 1", "ppUnit": "PP assignment pending", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-23", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:35:35.615148+00:00", "priorGP": 80.0, "currentTotalSOG": 5.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.04074074074074074, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.56 SOG/game in 9 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 9 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 23 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.942, "currentIXG": 0.10466666666666666, "priorTOI": 21.074583333333333, "priorPPTOI": 0.08229166666666667, "deploymentChange": -1.037546296296295, "ppTOIChange": -0.04155092592592593, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020536", "date": "20251218", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 20.95 }, { "gameId": "2025020031", "date": "20251011", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 24.25 }, { "gameId": "2024021285", "date": "20250414", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 24.116666666666667 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 0.6666666666666666, "opponentDefense": { "team": "MTL", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 237.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 26.333333333333332, "mostAllowedRank": 20, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.983070773571598, "pkSogAllowed60": 45.93967517401392, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 38.666666666666664, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 76.0, "D": 64.0, "R": 52.0, "L": 45.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 8.444444444444445, "L": 5.0, "R": 5.777777777777778, "D": 7.111111111111111 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 25.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 3, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27.333333333333332, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 26.333333333333332, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.111111111111111, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8484170", "team": "MTL", "name": "Jacob Fowler", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-23T17:12:10.576Z", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-23", "games": 4, "savePct": 0.9, "gaa": 2.163895011019836, "gsax": 2.1389999999999993, "goalsAllowed": 9.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 11.139, "shotsAgainst": 90.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9828963086689823, "factor": 0.9828963086689823, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter for October 23; Daily Faceoff confirmation.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.040065694506655154, "goalHistoryGoals": 6.0, "goalHistoryShots": 194.0, "goalExpected": 0.028708269982526763, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.028217252594098102, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.028300102850341912, "goalProbability": 0.027822864147844857, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.047723870249705494, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 9, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 0.7165299475280067, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.004008016032064, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 16.633333333333333, "Current_PP_Share": 0.010285179990649837, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.173148148148148, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.05320675982200059, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9711545151193198, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9819199317155711, "Position_Factor": 1.0001333630485962, "Input_GP": 9, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 22.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2139.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.3010827269200473, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 18.227848101265824, "Prior_5v5_Min": 17.721458333333334, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.0190156666032712, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9848286195916839, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.34640522875817, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.8819022332984545, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.8685225590341401, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9819199317155711, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 2.0545013554001996, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five saved meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. Dated 2024–2026 regular-season appearances.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020536", "date": "20251218", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 20.95 }, { "gameId": "2025020031", "date": "20251011", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 24.25 }, { "gameId": "2024021285", "date": "20250414", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 24.116666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020616", "date": "20250103", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 23.183333333333334 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Alex Vlasic", "Ian Cole" ], "lineupSource": "NHL.com projected lineup", "isHome": true, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:35:35.615148+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 11, "priorAttempts": 122, "fitPct": -3.9365922233848494, "index": 96.06340777661515, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 79.91058122205663, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.711511602468903, "currentAttempts": 9, "priorAttempts": 94 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 1.3114754098360655, "opponentDeltaPct": -5.805766108288097, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 6.110283159463488, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.5231164238779513, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 11.028315946348734, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.4830868449991215, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 17 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.9836065573770493, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.49406869911976514, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.6557377049180327, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.365981626756792, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -3.9365922233848494, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October23 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported unit only. Expected PP minutes retain measured current-season deployment; no guessed transfer.", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8484170", "goalieName": "Jacob Fowler", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8481568", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "window": "2021–22 through October21, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked attempts", "coverageNote": "Observed saved encounters only; missing is unavailable, not zero. Not independently established as complete career coverage." }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8484170", "goalieName": "Jacob Fowler", "opponent": "CHI", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "coverageNote": "Last five observed goalie/team regular-season appearances. Historical coverage is not independently established as career-complete." }, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.48251253279674444, "attemptProjection": 0.5678760765235128, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261021", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 14.0, "sog": 5.0, "seconds": 8982.0, "expectedMinutes": 16.633333333333333, "projectedAttempts": 1.5555555555555556, "onNet": 0.38702230999146026, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.916154770019487, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0295873524263528 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 22.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.05320675982200059, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.425764192139738, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9091960351585663, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0070808959552022 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.5251943046601286, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.5251943046601286, "baseline": 1.075, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 80.0, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.7451165827960772, "adjustedSOG": 0.7165299475280067, "reductionPct": 3.8365318834803097, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.5251943046601286, "afterPlayerForm": 0.48466196380593385, "afterRecentDefense": 0.517487471661557, "afterRecentZones": 0.5251943046601286, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.517487471661557, "adjusted": 0.4775499125466779, "playerFactor": 0.9228241043466291, "defenseFactor": 0.985325749098595, "oldChartFactor": 0.8819022332984545, "newChartFactor": 0.8819022332984545, "playerRecentAttempts": 4.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 78.36666666666666, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.5457859877255878, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9310963862455485, "defenseRecentMinutes": 244.7, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9722388488519644, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.25, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8240542632130013, "defenseRecentMinutes": 33.28333333333333, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.7165299475280067, "adjustedSOG": 0.7165299475280067, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.02197802197802198, "goalHistoryGoals": 2.0, "goalHistoryShots": 91.0, "goalExpected": 0.021077150276035572, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.021077150276035572, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.020856579529794687, "goalProbability": 0.020856579529794687, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.057793141849566146, "modelSOG": 0.7165299475280067, "historyGames": 171, "seasonGames": { "2024": 82, "2025": 80, "2026": 9 }, "historyGoals": 6.0, "historyShots": 194.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.030927835051546393, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.040065694506655154, "goalieFactor": 0.9828963086689823, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 29.35886210136057, "btb": { "id": "8481568", "name": "Alex Vlasic", "score": 29.35886210136057, "components": { "Goal model": 2.898550724637681, "SOG model": 2.898550724637681, "Unit attack": 9.090909090909092, "Opposing lines": 42.30769230769231, "Opposing pairs": 63.98601398601399, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 24.63768115942029, "Goalie": 37.32394366197183, "Team H2H": 41.42857142857143, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": true, "games": 8, "exactGames": 6, "individualGames": 2, "roleGames": 0, "exactMinutes": 75.06666666666666, "exactWeight": 0.5557749259624877, "individualWeight": 0.3140897399256931, "venueGames": 4, "venueFallback": false, "shares": [ 0.33966635257682126, 0.21388783533525596, 0.1485809369853208, 0.12903843092409695, 0.16882644417850498 ], "units": [ { "unit": 1, "names": [ "Cole Caufield", "Oliver Kapanen", "Juraj Slafkovsky" ], "share": 0.33966635257682126, "xGA60": 2.393836441797616 }, { "unit": 3, "names": [ "Zack Bolduc", "Phillip Danault", "Alexandre Texier" ], "share": 0.21388783533525596, "xGA60": 1.4811345950049914 }, { "unit": 2, "names": [ "Chris Kreider", "Alex Newhook", "Josh Anderson" ], "share": 0.1485809369853208, "xGA60": 3.419916688602215 }, { "unit": 4, "names": [ "Kirby Dach", "Owen Beck", "Jake Evans" ], "share": 0.12903843092409695, "xGA60": 2.466061001042222 } ], "otherShare": 0.16882644417850498, "weightedXGA60": 2.363913920340765, "score": 42.30769230769231 }, "pair": { "available": true, "games": 8, "exactGames": 6, "individualGames": 2, "roleGames": 0, "exactMinutes": 75.06666666666666, "exactWeight": 0.5557749259624877, "individualWeight": 0.3140897399256931, "venueGames": 4, "venueFallback": false, "shares": [ 0.3618595086960356, 0.28485329927893654, 0.23348929607185262, 0.11979789595317519 ], "units": [ { "unit": 1, "names": [ "Lane Hutson", "Noah Dobson" ], "share": 0.3618595086960356, "xGA60": 2.66866610905572 }, { "unit": 2, "names": [ "Kaiden Guhle", "Alexandre Carrier" ], "share": 0.28485329927893654, "xGA60": 2.6426590844163664 }, { "unit": 3, "names": [ "Arber Xhekaj", "Mike Matheson" ], "share": 0.23348929607185262, "xGA60": 2.4777575426949268 } ], "otherShare": 0.11979789595317519, "weightedXGA60": 2.5862548552090407, "score": 63.98601398601399 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.028023967061903, "unitPlayers": [ "Alex Vlasic", "Ian Cole" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 68 } }, { "id": "8476875", "name": "Mike Matheson", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "CHI", "position": "D", "currentGP": 5, "currentSOG": 1.8, "priorSOG": 1.4615384615384615, "currentTOI": 24.153333333333332, "currentFiveTOI": 18.2, "ppShare": 0.048515568428674875, "rate": 1.6205071220419325, "fifty": 1.670355721549187, "inputs": { "Player": "Mike Matheson", "Player_ID": "8476875", "Team": "MTL", "Opponent": "CHI", "Position": "D", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.278956886294321, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.3165540763486414, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 5, "Prior_GP": 78, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.615384615384615, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.037886340977069, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 2.6706231454005933, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 18.397948717948715, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 18.2, "Current_PP_Share": 0.048515568428674875, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.06062580556698204, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 67.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1381.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 5, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.349074074074074, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.22679829635284673, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.21099780084211656, "Other_State_SOG": 0.20153846153846156, "Environment_Proxy": 1.1241623654244617, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.4615384615384615, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 3", "ppUnit": "PP assignment pending", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-23", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:35:35.615148+00:00", "priorGP": 78.0, "currentTotalSOG": 9.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.22333333333333333, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.80 SOG/game in 5 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 5 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 23 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.379, "currentIXG": 0.0758, "priorTOI": 24.16346153846154, "priorPPTOI": 0.288034188034188, "deploymentChange": -0.010128205128207668, "ppTOIChange": -0.06470085470085468, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020031", "date": "20251011", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 23.133333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024021285", "date": "20250414", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 27.566666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020616", "date": "20250103", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 8.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 28.166666666666668 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 3, "h2hSOG": 2.6666666666666665, "opponentDefense": { "team": "CHI", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 275.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 30.555555555555557, "mostAllowedRank": 4, "fiveSogAllowed60": 29.037678778147054, "pkSogAllowed60": 51.98019801980198, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 47.0, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 88.0, "D": 70.0, "R": 50.0, "L": 67.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.777777777777779, "L": 7.444444444444445, "R": 5.555555555555555, "D": 7.777777777777778 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 30.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.8, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 30.555555555555557, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.777777777777778, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8481519", "team": "CHI", "name": "Spencer Knight", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-23T17:38:57.370Z", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-23", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.8878923766816144, "gaa": 3.589375448671931, "gsax": -1.0060000000000002, "goalsAllowed": 25.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 23.994, "shotsAgainst": 223.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0134476231189056, "factor": 1.0134476231189056, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter for October 23; Daily Faceoff confirmation.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.05046645633144991, "goalHistoryGoals": 13.0, "goalHistoryShots": 272.0, "goalExpected": 0.08259326317920884, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.08370394625460342, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.0792744359408479, "goalProbability": 0.08029650254082439, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.10220665999764872, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 5, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.636597240685156, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.615384615384615, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 18.2, "Current_PP_Share": 0.048515568428674875, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.349074074074074, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.21099780084211656, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.4, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0652555848758556, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0415262503506049, "Position_Factor": 0.9933299562396771, "Input_GP": 5, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 67.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1381.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.037886340977069, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 2.6706231454005933, "Prior_5v5_Min": 18.85982905982906, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.06062580556698204, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0278141974152464, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.34640522875817, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.1239805980879458, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0415262503506049, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 4.615384615384615, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 4.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 0.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five saved meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. Dated 2024–2026 regular-season appearances.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020031", "date": "20251011", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 23.133333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024021285", "date": "20250414", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 27.566666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020616", "date": "20250103", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 8.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 28.166666666666668 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Arber Xhekaj", "Mike Matheson" ], "lineupSource": "NHL.com projected lineup", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 140, "fitPct": 4.132686602931528, "index": 104.13268660293153, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 71.71428571428571, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.6823628774928636, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 101 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 2.857142857142857, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.333228225851869, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 10 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 10.857142857142858, "opponentDeltaPct": 17.724165752730244, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 8 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 12.571428571428573, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.874621784366013, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 14 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 1.1428571428571428, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.336952686487635, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.8571428571428572, "opponentDeltaPct": -11.504840448330498, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 4.132686602931528, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October23 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported unit only. Expected PP minutes retain measured current-season deployment; no guessed transfer.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481519", "goalieName": "Spencer Knight", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8476875", "goals": 0, "sog": 4, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 4, "log": [ { "goals": 0, "sog": 4, "attempts": 4, "gameId": "2024020566", "date": "20241228" } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "window": "2021–22 through October21, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked attempts", "coverageNote": "Observed saved encounters only; missing is unavailable, not zero. Not independently established as complete career coverage." }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481519", "goalieName": "Spencer Knight", "opponent": "MTL", "games": 4, "availableGames": 4, "shotsAgainst": 118.0, "goalsAgainst": 13.0, "savePct": 0.8898305084745762, "gaa": 3.269526337851055, "gsax": 0.5030000000000001, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020536", "date": "20251218", "goalieTeam": "CHI", "opponent": "MTL", "shotsAgainst": 34.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3563.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.275 }, { "gameId": "2025020031", "date": "20251011", "goalieTeam": "CHI", "opponent": "MTL", "shotsAgainst": 28.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3585.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.45 }, { "gameId": "2024020566", "date": "20241228", "goalieTeam": "FLA", "opponent": "MTL", "shotsAgainst": 25.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3566.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.261 }, { "gameId": "2021021020", "date": "20220324", "goalieTeam": "FLA", "opponent": "MTL", "shotsAgainst": 31.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.517 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "coverageNote": "Last five observed goalie/team regular-season appearances. Historical coverage is not independently established as career-complete." }, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 2.0099999999999993, "attemptProjection": 1.7086582065104676, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261021", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 14.0, "sog": 7.0, "seconds": 5460.0, "expectedMinutes": 18.2, "projectedAttempts": 2.8000000000000003, "onNet": 0.41827230999146026, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0621717863909321, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0519965736844064 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 67.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.21099780084211656, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.425764192139738, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.938442005242464, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.067787892452511 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.4593291032552336, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.4 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.8593291032552335, "baseline": 1.4615384615384615, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 78.0, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.7002128465685247, "adjustedSOG": 1.6699971843726082, "reductionPct": 1.7771693854036874, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.4593291032552336, "afterPlayerForm": 1.4593291032552336, "afterRecentDefense": 1.416261288862114, "afterRecentZones": 1.4518157459715704, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.4089696662620392, "adjusted": 1.4089696662620392, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9704879356568364, "oldChartFactor": 1.1239805980879458, "newChartFactor": 1.113490079065163, "playerRecentAttempts": 14.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 91.0, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.0, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.860962222987714, "defenseRecentMinutes": 241.91666666666666, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 1.1166666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0243821773082225, "defenseRecentMinutes": 25.916666666666668, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.6699971843726082, "adjustedSOG": 1.636597240685156, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.056910569105691054, "goalHistoryGoals": 7.0, "goalHistoryShots": 123.0, "goalExpected": 0.09222398255523193, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.09222398255523193, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.08809912321932303, "goalProbability": 0.08809912321932303, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05773521755299368, "modelSOG": 1.636597240685156, "historyGames": 163, "seasonGames": { "2024": 80, "2025": 78, "2026": 5 }, "historyGoals": 13.0, "historyShots": 272.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.04779411764705882, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.05046645633144991, "goalieFactor": 1.0134476231189056, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 45.3362887777368, "btb": { "id": "8476875", "name": "Mike Matheson", "score": 45.3362887777368, "components": { "Goal model": 23.18840579710145, "SOG model": 65.21739130434783, "Unit attack": 36.36363636363637, "Opposing lines": 65.38461538461539, "Opposing pairs": 80.76923076923077, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 28.985507246376812, "Goalie": 62.67605633802817, "Team H2H": 49.467455621301774, "Goalie H2H": 49.074074074074076 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": true, "games": 8, "exactGames": 0, "individualGames": 8, "roleGames": 0, "exactMinutes": 0.0, "exactWeight": 0, "individualWeight": 0.5568139849809185, "venueGames": 3, "venueFallback": false, "shares": [ 0.25099428215349934, 0.20279063974696637, 0.2144699078165292, 0.21470209349143649, 0.1170430767915687 ], "units": [ { "unit": 1, "names": [ "Roman Kantserov", "Connor Bedard", "Patrick Kane" ], "share": 0.25099428215349934, "xGA60": 3.034330357181087 }, { "unit": 2, "names": [ "Tyler Bertuzzi", "Anton Frondell", "Teuvo Teravainen" ], "share": 0.20279063974696637, "xGA60": 2.9573904009618985 }, { "unit": 4, "names": [ "Cole Smith", "Ryan Greene", "Jordan Greenway" ], "share": 0.2144699078165292, "xGA60": 2.1366414316797844 }, { "unit": 3, "names": [ "Oliver Moore", "Frank Nazar", "Ryan Donato" ], "share": 0.21470209349143649, "xGA60": 2.6268627576253714 } ], "otherShare": 0.1170430767915687, "weightedXGA60": 2.7398773998418533, "score": 65.38461538461539 }, "pair": { "available": true, "games": 8, "exactGames": 0, "individualGames": 8, "roleGames": 0, "exactMinutes": 0.0, "exactWeight": 0, "individualWeight": 0.5568139849809185, "venueGames": 3, "venueFallback": false, "shares": [ 0.32177229607426494, 0.2563867556434669, 0.2712312547963755, 0.1506096934858926 ], "units": [ { "unit": 2, "names": [ "Wyatt Kaiser", "Artyom Levshunov" ], "share": 0.32177229607426494, "xGA60": 2.7395083310694384 }, { "unit": 1, "names": [ "Alex Vlasic", "Ian Cole" ], "share": 0.2563867556434669, "xGA60": 2.7281475578627203 }, { "unit": 3, "names": [ "Ethan Del Mastro", "Sam Rinzel" ], "share": 0.2712312547963755, "xGA60": 3.1610539346551283 } ], "otherShare": 0.1506096934858926, "weightedXGA60": 2.8968291361568417, "score": 80.76923076923077 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.6372181668991796, "unitPlayers": [ "Arber Xhekaj", "Mike Matheson" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 3, "goalieH2HShots": 4, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 43 }, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:35:35.615148+00:00" }, { "id": "8483493", "name": "Frank Nazar", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "MTL", "position": "C", "currentGP": 7, "currentSOG": 2.0, "priorSOG": 2.1076923076923078, "currentTOI": 18.21904761904762, "currentFiveTOI": 14.152380952380952, "ppShare": 0.3423728813559322, "rate": 1.9573297670506242, "fifty": 1.7237923403058413, "inputs": { "Player": "Frank Nazar", "Player_ID": "8483493", "Team": "CHI", "Opponent": "MTL", "Position": "C", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 2.1994571919834844, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.8065796127453155, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 7, "Prior_GP": 65, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.23956931359354, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.127132257324256, "Current_PP_SOG60": 5.9405940594059405, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 9.701869631126831, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 13.929128205128205, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 14.152380952380952, "Current_PP_Share": 0.3423728813559322, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.7035389296895571, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 606.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1770.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 5, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.173148148148148, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 2.331655279395909, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 1.7711456371625862, "Other_State_SOG": 0.2795604395604396, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9555676582468344, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 2.1076923076923078, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 3", "ppUnit": "PP2 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-23", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:35:35.615148+00:00", "priorGP": 65.0, "currentTotalSOG": 14.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.4428571428571428, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.00 SOG/game in 7 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 7 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 23 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 2.636, "currentIXG": 0.3765714285714286, "priorTOI": 18.317179487179487, "priorPPTOI": 3.0446153846153847, "deploymentChange": -0.09813186813186903, "ppTOIChange": -1.6017582417582419, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020536", "date": "20251218", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "toi": 16.416666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2025020031", "date": "20251011", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 18.466666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2024021285", "date": "20250414", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "toi": 19.816666666666666 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 2.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "MTL", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 237.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 26.333333333333332, "mostAllowedRank": 20, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.983070773571598, "pkSogAllowed60": 45.93967517401392, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 38.666666666666664, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 76.0, "D": 64.0, "R": 52.0, "L": 45.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 8.444444444444445, "L": 5.0, "R": 5.777777777777778, "D": 7.111111111111111 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 25.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 3, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27.333333333333332, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 26.333333333333332, "oppPosSogAllowed": 8.444444444444445, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8484170", "team": "MTL", "name": "Jacob Fowler", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-23T17:12:10.576Z", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-23", "games": 4, "savePct": 0.9, "gaa": 2.163895011019836, "gsax": 2.1389999999999993, "goalsAllowed": 9.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 11.139, "shotsAgainst": 90.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9828963086689823, "factor": 0.9828963086689823, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter for October 23; Daily Faceoff confirmation.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.12529445312306278, "goalHistoryGoals": 30.0, "goalHistoryShots": 242.0, "goalExpected": 0.2473210908901694, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.24309098729193337, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.2191100833660139, "goalProbability": 0.21579984172335126, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.3310241642662637, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 7, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.9739189144091913, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.23956931359354, "Current_PP_SOG60": 5.9405940594059405, "Current_5v5_Min": 14.152380952380952, "Current_PP_Share": 0.3423728813559322, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.173148148148148, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.7711456371625862, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.8571428571428571, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9711545151193198, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9819199317155711, "Position_Factor": 0.9911637855464778, "Input_GP": 7, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 606.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1770.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.127132257324256, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 9.701869631126831, "Prior_5v5_Min": 13.408205128205127, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.7035389296895571, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9501385041551247, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.437908496732026, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.9282167942896297, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.25, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.8819345164580138, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.15, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 2.4096385542168677, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 6.976744186046512, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five saved meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. Dated 2024–2026 regular-season appearances.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020536", "date": "20251218", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "toi": 16.416666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2025020031", "date": "20251011", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 18.466666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2024021285", "date": "20250414", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "toi": 19.816666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020616", "date": "20250103", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 12.133333333333333 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Oliver Moore", "Frank Nazar", "Ryan Donato" ], "lineupSource": "NHL.com projected lineup", "isHome": true, "rosterPosition": "C", "projectedPosition": "C", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:35:35.615148+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/chicago-blackhawks/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-22T16:55:34.203Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 13, "priorAttempts": 142, "fitPct": -2.3927735236790113, "index": 97.60722647632099, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 16.836403033586134, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.711511602468903, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 27 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 42.73022751895992, "opponentDeltaPct": -5.805766108288097, "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 37 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 30.010834236186344, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.5231164238779513, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 41 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 3.098591549295775, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.4830868449991215, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 11 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 5.352112676056339, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.49406869911976514, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 19 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 1.971830985915493, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.365981626756792, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 7 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 48, "fitPct": 12.001703172389227, "index": 112.00170317238923, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 5.833333333333334, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.8191755597579373, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 10.000000000000002, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.365371878175409, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 12 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 15.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.116979926964163, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 18 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 4.166666666666666, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.921488030021976, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 64.16666666666666, "opponentDeltaPct": 19.17564972004449, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.8333333333333334, "opponentDeltaPct": 88.51112253515706, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -2.3927735236790113, "zonePPFit": 12.001703172389227, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October23 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported unit only. Expected PP minutes retain measured current-season deployment; no guessed transfer.", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8484170", "goalieName": "Jacob Fowler", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8483493", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "window": "2021–22 through October21, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked attempts", "coverageNote": "Observed saved encounters only; missing is unavailable, not zero. Not independently established as complete career coverage." }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8484170", "goalieName": "Jacob Fowler", "opponent": "CHI", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "coverageNote": "Last five observed goalie/team regular-season appearances. Historical coverage is not independently established as career-complete." }, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.9407424709015615, "attemptProjection": 1.8412706412376822, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261021", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 13.0, "sog": 7.0, "seconds": 5944.0, "expectedMinutes": 14.152380952380952, "projectedAttempts": 1.8571428571428568, "onNet": 0.5124187943221828, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.916154770019487, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0295873524263528 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 1.0, "sog": 1.0, "seconds": 606.0, "expectedMinutes": 1.7711456371625862, "projectedAttempts": 0.1753609541745135, "onNet": 0.538638985005767, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9091960351585663, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0070808959552022 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.8897874769321752, "ppAdjusted": 0.1440762219945895, "other": 0.8571428571428571 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.8910065560696219, "baseline": 2.1076923076923078, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 65.0, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.9776808567186963, "adjustedSOG": 1.9739189144091913, "reductionPct": 0.19021988794222233, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.8897874769321752, "afterPlayerForm": 0.8897874769321752, "afterRecentDefense": 0.8897874769321752, "afterRecentZones": 0.8875172948586304, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.8875172948586304, "adjusted": 0.8875172948586304, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.9282167942896297, "newChartFactor": 0.9234381603039172, "playerRecentAttempts": 10.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 71.03333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.0728079991336679, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.1123498161013488, "defenseRecentMinutes": 244.7, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.1440762219945895, "afterPlayerForm": 0.1440762219945895, "afterRecentDefense": 0.1400765002189598, "afterRecentZones": 0.1440762219945895, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.1400765002189598, "adjusted": 0.1400765002189598, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9722388488519644, "oldChartFactor": 1.25, "newChartFactor": 1.25, "playerRecentAttempts": 1.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 6.3, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.603174603174603, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8240542632130013, "defenseRecentMinutes": 33.28333333333333, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.9739189144091913, "adjustedSOG": 1.9739189144091913, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.11920529801324503, "goalHistoryGoals": 18.0, "goalHistoryShots": 151.0, "goalExpected": 0.23332407819146514, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.23332407819146514, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.20810310457902215, "goalProbability": 0.20810310457902215, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1285070296808748, "modelSOG": 1.9739189144091913, "historyGames": 125, "seasonGames": { "2024": 53, "2025": 65, "2026": 7 }, "historyGoals": 30.0, "historyShots": 242.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.12396694214876033, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.12529445312306278, "goalieFactor": 0.9828963086689823, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 54.90073508345095, "btb": { "id": "8483493", "name": "Frank Nazar", "score": 54.90073508345095, "components": { "Goal model": 73.91304347826087, "SOG model": 75.3623188405797, "Unit attack": 33.333333333333336, "Opposing lines": 47.348484848484844, "Opposing pairs": 41.608391608391614, "PP": 25.0, "Shot quality": 85.5072463768116, "Goalie": 37.32394366197183, "Team H2H": 58.57142857142857, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": true, "weightedXGA60": 2.5082524531109156, "games": 7, "exactGames": 2, "shares": [ 0.25531054286982013, 0.2763304501988148, 0.20605420549818587, 0.26230480143317914 ], "score": 47.348484848484844 }, "pair": { "available": true, "weightedXGA60": 2.5740922400877695, "games": 8, "exactGames": 2, "shares": [ 0.326846170914061, 0.24500676917825992, 0.32566668445482894, 0.10248037545285013 ], "score": 41.608391608391614 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.4935875161559746, "unitPlayers": [ "Oliver Moore", "Frank Nazar", "Ryan Donato" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 26 } }, { "id": "8484984", "name": "Ivan Demidov", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "CHI", "position": "R", "currentGP": 2, "currentSOG": 2.0, "priorSOG": 1.548780487804878, "currentTOI": 15.616666666666667, "currentFiveTOI": 11.608333333333333, "ppShare": 0.5714285714285714, "rate": 1.7145719375871056, "fifty": 1.4751564746221275, "inputs": { "Player": "Ivan Demidov", "Player_ID": "8484984", "Team": "MTL", "Opponent": "CHI", "Position": "R", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.361065428985151, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.1831323388133874, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 2, "Prior_GP": 82, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 0.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.085366491690064, "Current_PP_SOG60": 16.9811320754717, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 7.9368465969703434, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 11.622235772357723, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 11.608333333333333, "Current_PP_Share": 0.5714285714285714, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.6015401069518718, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 212.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 371.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 2, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.349074074074074, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 2.5244723747276687, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 2.485185185185185, "Other_State_SOG": 0.29268292682926833, "Environment_Proxy": 1.1241623654244617, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.548780487804878, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Out (reported)", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "PP assignment pending", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-23", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:35:35.615148+00:00", "priorGP": 82.0, "currentTotalSOG": 4.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.7666666666666666, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.00 SOG/game in 2 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 2 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Listed unavailable on latest report; not projected to dress.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.445, "currentIXG": 0.2225, "priorTOI": 15.497560975609755, "priorPPTOI": 2.8579268292682927, "deploymentChange": 0.11910569105691238, "ppTOIChange": -1.091260162601626, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020536", "date": "20251218", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 16.383333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020031", "date": "20251011", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 14.366666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024021285", "date": "20250414", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "toi": 16.933333333333334 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 3, "h2hSOG": 3.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "CHI", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 275.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 30.555555555555557, "mostAllowedRank": 4, "fiveSogAllowed60": 29.037678778147054, "pkSogAllowed60": 51.98019801980198, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 47.0, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 88.0, "D": 70.0, "R": 50.0, "L": 67.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.777777777777779, "L": 7.444444444444445, "R": 5.555555555555555, "D": 7.777777777777778 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 30.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.8, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 30.555555555555557, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.555555555555555, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8481519", "team": "CHI", "name": "Spencer Knight", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-23T17:38:57.370Z", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-23", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.8878923766816144, "gaa": 3.589375448671931, "gsax": -1.0060000000000002, "goalsAllowed": 25.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 23.994, "shotsAgainst": 223.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0134476231189056, "factor": 1.0134476231189056, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter for October 23; Daily Faceoff confirmation.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.14341771708000736, "goalHistoryGoals": 21.0, "goalHistoryShots": 136.0, "goalExpected": 0.3253197707444309, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.3296945484145308, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.2777036525311972, "goalProbability": 0.2808566366324172, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.3152984101220002, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 2, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 2.268337394904614, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_PP_SOG60": 16.9811320754717, "Current_5v5_Min": 11.608333333333333, "Current_PP_Share": 0.5714285714285714, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.349074074074074, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 2.485185185185185, "Remaining_State_SOG": 1.5, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0652555848758556, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0415262503506049, "Position_Factor": 0.9905286689152091, "Input_GP": 2, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 212.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 371.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.085366491690064, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 7.9368465969703434, "Prior_5v5_Min": 11.654674796747967, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.6015401069518718, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0152430255967788, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.382352941176471, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.1679184472742181, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.9939195044237286, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0351932545927773, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 0, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 16.9811320754717, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 3.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 3.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five saved meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. Dated 2024–2026 regular-season appearances.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020536", "date": "20251218", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 16.383333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020031", "date": "20251011", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 14.366666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024021285", "date": "20250414", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "CHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "toi": 16.933333333333334 } ], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "NHL.com projected lineup", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 131, "fitPct": 5.597281575807273, "index": 105.59728157580727, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 4.885496183206107, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.6823628774928636, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 16 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 39.77099236641221, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.333228225851869, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 32 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 8.244274809160306, "opponentDeltaPct": 17.724165752730244, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 27 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 7.328244274809162, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.874621784366013, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 24 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 37.63358778625954, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.336952686487635, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 25 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 2.137404580152672, "opponentDeltaPct": -11.504840448330498, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 7 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 51, "fitPct": -0.20268318587571343, "index": 99.79731681412429, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 7.0588235294117645, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.4028975883336443, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 9 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 2.3529411764705888, "opponentDeltaPct": 13.01574130857064, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 7.0588235294117645, "opponentDeltaPct": 8.387003790885572, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 9 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.7843137254901961, "opponentDeltaPct": -19.944089475898465, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 81.96078431372548, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.7605264681782984, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 28 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.7843137254901961, "opponentDeltaPct": -44.57933713730726, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 5.597281575807273, "zonePPFit": -0.20268318587571343, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October23 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported unit only. Expected PP minutes retain measured current-season deployment; no guessed transfer.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481519", "goalieName": "Spencer Knight", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8484984", "goals": 0, "sog": 6, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 2, "recordedAttempts": 7, "log": [ { "goals": 0, "sog": 5, "attempts": 6, "gameId": "2025020536", "date": "20251218" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1, "gameId": "2025020031", "date": "20251011" } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "window": "2021–22 through October21, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked attempts", "coverageNote": "Observed saved encounters only; missing is unavailable, not zero. Not independently established as complete career coverage." }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481519", "goalieName": "Spencer Knight", "opponent": "MTL", "games": 4, "availableGames": 4, "shotsAgainst": 118.0, "goalsAgainst": 13.0, "savePct": 0.8898305084745762, "gaa": 3.269526337851055, "gsax": 0.5030000000000001, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020536", "date": "20251218", "goalieTeam": "CHI", "opponent": "MTL", "shotsAgainst": 34.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3563.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.275 }, { "gameId": "2025020031", "date": "20251011", "goalieTeam": "CHI", "opponent": "MTL", "shotsAgainst": 28.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3585.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.45 }, { "gameId": "2024020566", "date": "20241228", "goalieTeam": "FLA", "opponent": "MTL", "shotsAgainst": 25.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3566.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.261 }, { "gameId": "2021021020", "date": "20220324", "goalieTeam": "FLA", "opponent": "MTL", "shotsAgainst": 31.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.517 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "coverageNote": "Last five observed goalie/team regular-season appearances. Historical coverage is not independently established as career-complete." }, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 2.2281076245615865, "attemptProjection": 3.4565998433543395, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261021", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 5.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 1393.0, "expectedMinutes": 11.608333333333333, "projectedAttempts": 2.4999999999999996, "onNet": 0.4493548865490138, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0621717863909321, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0519965736844064 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 2.0, "sog": 1.0, "seconds": 212.0, "expectedMinutes": 2.485185185185185, "projectedAttempts": 1.4067085953878404, "onNet": 0.497534516765286, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.938442005242464, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.067787892452511 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.627637044386946, "ppAdjusted": 0.7147166895710171, "other": 1.5 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 2.842353733957963, "baseline": 1.548780487804878, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 82.0, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 2.324924435496729, "adjustedSOG": 2.314629994800627, "reductionPct": 0.4427860337707257, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.627637044386946, "afterPlayerForm": 0.627637044386946, "afterRecentDefense": 0.6104796432267753, "afterRecentZones": 0.627637044386946, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.6104796432267753, "adjusted": 0.6104796432267753, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9726634982533106, "oldChartFactor": 1.1679184472742181, "newChartFactor": 1.1679184472742181, "playerRecentAttempts": 5.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 23.216666666666665, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8712117732613771, "defenseRecentMinutes": 241.91666666666666, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.7147166895710171, "afterPlayerForm": 0.7147166895710171, "afterRecentDefense": 0.7147166895710171, "afterRecentZones": 0.7147166895710171, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.7147166895710171, "adjusted": 0.7147166895710171, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.9939195044237286, "newChartFactor": 0.9939195044237286, "playerRecentAttempts": 2.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 3.533333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0243821773082225, "defenseRecentMinutes": 25.916666666666668, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 2.314629994800627, "adjustedSOG": 2.268337394904614, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.15267175572519084, "goalHistoryGoals": 20.0, "goalHistoryShots": 131.0, "goalExpected": 0.2617667080285657, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.2617667080285657, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.23030943460666042, "goalProbability": 0.23030943460666042, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12846581230881737, "modelSOG": 2.268337394904614, "historyGames": 86, "seasonGames": { "2024": 2, "2025": 82, "2026": 2 }, "historyGoals": 21.0, "historyShots": 136.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.15441176470588236, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.14341771708000736, "goalieFactor": 1.0134476231189056, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8481624", "name": "Ilya Mikheyev", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "position": "L", "currentGP": 9, "currentSOG": 1.3333333333333333, "priorSOG": 1.5921052631578947, "currentTOI": 14.894444444444446, "currentFiveTOI": 12.777777777777779, "ppShare": 0.004768392370572207, "rate": 1.4617005430276941, "fifty": 1.4100970253507794, "inputs": { "Player": "Ilya Mikheyev", "Player_ID": "8481624", "Team": "TBL", "Opponent": "COL", "Position": "R", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.3026867862306037, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.2247041627568456, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 9, "Prior_GP": 76, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.217391304347826, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.402046229632437, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 13.284904970760234, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 12.777777777777779, "Current_PP_Share": 0.004768392370572207, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.0139862064823527, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 14.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2936.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 5, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.612685185185185, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.03475075522284873, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.021995092844888486, "Other_State_SOG": 0.2590643274853801, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9914667421548949, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.5921052631578947, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 3", "ppUnit": "PP assignment pending", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-23", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:35:35.615148+00:00", "priorGP": 76.0, "currentTotalSOG": 12.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.025925925925925925, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.33 SOG/game in 9 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 9 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 23 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.286, "currentIXG": 0.1428888888888889, "priorTOI": 17.435087719298245, "priorPPTOI": 0.06052631578947368, "deploymentChange": -2.5406432748537995, "ppTOIChange": -0.034600389863547756, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021096", "date": "20260320", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 16.0 }, { "gameId": "2025020938", "date": "20260228", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 17.483333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020350", "date": "20251123", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 16.933333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024021195", "date": "20250402", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 1.0, "toi": 17.233333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024021023", "date": "20250310", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 15.066666666666666 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 7, "h2hSOG": 2.2, "opponentDefense": { "team": "COL", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 273.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.3, "mostAllowedRank": 16, "fiveSogAllowed60": 27.02393375298751, "pkSogAllowed60": 47.51429828420589, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 40.2, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 100.0, "R": 60.0, "L": 45.0, "D": 68.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.0, "L": 4.5, "R": 6.0, "D": 6.8 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 29.0, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.8, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.3, "oppPosSogAllowed": 4.5, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8478406", "team": "COL", "name": "Mackenzie Blackwood", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-23T16:26:32.640Z", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-23", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.8888888888888888, "gaa": 2.897734132893307, "gsax": -2.4450000000000003, "goalsAllowed": 20.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 17.555, "shotsAgainst": 180.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0252999843886221, "factor": 1.0252999843886221, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter for October 23; Daily Faceoff confirmation.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.14243962698321244, "goalHistoryGoals": 40.0, "goalHistoryShots": 271.0, "goalExpected": 0.18537666491123367, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.1900666916395027, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.16920870501951418, "goalProbability": 0.173096015478059, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.3887310458544818, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 9, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.3014402581458717, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.217391304347826, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 12.777777777777779, "Current_PP_Share": 0.004768392370572207, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.612685185185185, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.021995092844888486, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.2222222222222222, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0289555868427727, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9996701327073623, "Position_Factor": 1.014013991473008, "Input_GP": 9, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 14.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2936.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.402046229632437, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 14.468201754385964, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.0139862064823527, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9444803098773402, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.062091503267974, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.9943033322291338, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9390999193358442, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9996701327073623, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.9347181008902075, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 4, "sogPerGame": 2.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 1.3333333333333333 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five saved meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. Dated 2024–2026 regular-season appearances.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021096", "date": "20260320", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 16.0 }, { "gameId": "2025020938", "date": "20260228", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 17.483333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020350", "date": "20251123", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 16.933333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024021195", "date": "20250402", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 1.0, "toi": 17.233333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024021023", "date": "20250310", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 15.066666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020651", "date": "20250108", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "toi": 17.516666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020144", "date": "20241028", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "toi": 16.7 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Ilya Mikheyev", "Zemgus Girgensons", "Pontus Holmberg" ], "lineupSource": "NHL.com projected lineup", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "rosterPosition": "R", "projectedPosition": "L", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:35:35.615148+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 15, "priorAttempts": 142, "fitPct": -0.1898889256955414, "index": 99.81011107430446, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 25.014084507042256, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.604370751696635, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 32 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 11.32394366197183, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.2025641924569896, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 26 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 46.929577464788736, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.26262818174886604, "currentAttempts": 8, "priorAttempts": 53 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 5.070422535211268, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.0950116912032684, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 18 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 10.535211267605634, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.044692588641311204, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 9 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 1.1267605633802817, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.6551158457307906, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -0.1898889256955414, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October23 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported unit only. Expected PP minutes retain measured current-season deployment; no guessed transfer.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478406", "goalieName": "Mackenzie Blackwood", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8481624", "goals": 0, "sog": 8, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 7, "recordedAttempts": 12, "log": [ { "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1, "gameId": "2025021096", "date": "20260320" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2, "gameId": "2025020938", "date": "20260228" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2, "gameId": "2024020167", "date": "20241031" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2, "gameId": "2023020527", "date": "20231223" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2, "gameId": "2023020278", "date": "20231120" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1, "gameId": "2023020156", "date": "20231102" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2, "gameId": "2022020157", "date": "20221101" } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "window": "2021–22 through October21, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked attempts", "coverageNote": "Observed saved encounters only; missing is unavailable, not zero. Not independently established as complete career coverage." }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478406", "goalieName": "Mackenzie Blackwood", "opponent": "TBL", "games": 4, "availableGames": 4, "shotsAgainst": 99.0, "goalsAgainst": 15.0, "savePct": 0.8484848484848485, "gaa": 4.800426704595964, "gsax": -3.8269999999999995, "log": [ { "gameId": "2024020413", "date": "20241205", "goalieTeam": "SJS", "opponent": "TBL", "shotsAgainst": 23.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 2400.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.907 }, { "gameId": "2023021108", "date": "20240321", "goalieTeam": "SJS", "opponent": "TBL", "shotsAgainst": 21.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.592 }, { "gameId": "2023020106", "date": "20231026", "goalieTeam": "SJS", "opponent": "TBL", "shotsAgainst": 21.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 1649.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.962 }, { "gameId": "2021020264", "date": "20211120", "goalieTeam": "NJD", "opponent": "TBL", "shotsAgainst": 34.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.712 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "coverageNote": "Last five observed goalie/team regular-season appearances. Historical coverage is not independently established as career-complete." }, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.265666577039827, "attemptProjection": 1.2160658113115663, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261021", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 17.0, "sog": 10.0, "seconds": 6900.0, "expectedMinutes": 12.777777777777779, "projectedAttempts": 1.8888888888888888, "onNet": 0.5181271456745635, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0290266956001277, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9868443082842028 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 14.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.021995092844888486, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.49743589743589745, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9649306914974484, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9896116972997503 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.0186439719534746, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.2222222222222222 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.2408661941756967, "baseline": 1.5921052631578947, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 76.0, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.381361821768576, "adjustedSOG": 1.3280002634141548, "reductionPct": 3.8629675088386106, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.0186439719534746, "afterPlayerForm": 0.9722186112056124, "afterRecentDefense": 0.9744118073211808, "afterRecentZones": 1.0183216049795765, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.9741034383578283, "adjusted": 0.9297080413627724, "playerFactor": 0.9544243503853154, "defenseFactor": 0.9565774050108315, "oldChartFactor": 0.9943033322291338, "newChartFactor": 0.9936889620332195, "playerRecentAttempts": 7.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 66.58333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.711183096517706, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.7977332170880559, "defenseRecentMinutes": 251.61666666666667, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.0, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.594204503506829, "defenseRecentMinutes": 15.05, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.3280002634141548, "adjustedSOG": 1.3014402581458717, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.15037593984962405, "goalHistoryGoals": 20.0, "goalHistoryShots": 133.0, "goalExpected": 0.21980459293649535, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.21980459293649535, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.19732436887314936, "goalProbability": 0.19732436887314936, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12845101610771814, "modelSOG": 1.3014402581458717, "historyGames": 165, "seasonGames": { "2024": 80, "2025": 76, "2026": 9 }, "historyGoals": 40.0, "historyShots": 271.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.14760147601476015, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.14243962698321244, "goalieFactor": 1.0252999843886221, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 53.242618596611855, "btb": { "id": "8481624", "name": "Ilya Mikheyev", "score": 53.242618596611855, "components": { "Goal model": 59.42028985507246, "SOG model": 42.028985507246375, "Unit attack": 13.333333333333334, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 44.927536231884055, "Goalie": 88.02816901408451, "Team H2H": 68.05429864253394, "Goalie H2H": 44.20062695924765 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Forward-unit exposure or opposing rates unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.290971757770505, "unitPlayers": [ "Ilya Mikheyev", "Zemgus Girgensons", "Pontus Holmberg" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 7, "goalieH2HShots": 8, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 30 } }, { "id": "8484783", "name": "Artyom Levshunov", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "MTL", "position": "D", "currentGP": 9, "currentSOG": 1.3333333333333333, "priorSOG": 1.2388059701492538, "currentTOI": 20.453703703703706, "currentFiveTOI": 18.048148148148147, "ppShare": 0.051425899953249185, "rate": 1.1457232822223464, "fifty": 1.1759849060562195, "inputs": { "Player": "Artyom Levshunov", "Player_ID": "8484783", "Team": "CHI", "Opponent": "MTL", "Position": "D", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.2865778938435515, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.4365265990010165, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 9, "Prior_GP": 67, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.063205417607223, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.441956816189945, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 5.414551607445008, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 17.316912658927585, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 18.048148148148147, "Current_PP_Share": 0.051425899953249185, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.6114903799753608, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 110.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2139.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 6, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.173148148148148, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 1.1352227574109857, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.26603379911000297, "Other_State_SOG": 0.07827529021558872, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9555676582468344, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.2388059701492538, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 2", "ppUnit": "PP assignment pending", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-23", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:35:35.615148+00:00", "priorGP": 67.0, "currentTotalSOG": 12.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.2037037037037037, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.33 SOG/game in 9 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 9 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 23 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.102, "currentIXG": 0.12244444444444445, "priorTOI": 19.591293532338305, "priorPPTOI": 2.646268656716418, "deploymentChange": 0.8624101713654007, "ppTOIChange": -2.4425649530127145, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020536", "date": "20251218", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 21.966666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2024021285", "date": "20250414", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 20.45 } ], "h2hGames": 2, "h2hAvailableGames": 2, "h2hSOG": 0.5, "opponentDefense": { "team": "MTL", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 237.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 26.333333333333332, "mostAllowedRank": 20, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.983070773571598, "pkSogAllowed60": 45.93967517401392, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 38.666666666666664, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 76.0, "D": 64.0, "R": 52.0, "L": 45.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 8.444444444444445, "L": 5.0, "R": 5.777777777777778, "D": 7.111111111111111 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 25.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 3, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27.333333333333332, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 26.333333333333332, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.111111111111111, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8484170", "team": "MTL", "name": "Jacob Fowler", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-23T17:12:10.576Z", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-23", "games": 4, "savePct": 0.9, "gaa": 2.163895011019836, "gsax": 2.1389999999999993, "goalsAllowed": 9.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 11.139, "shotsAgainst": 90.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9828963086689823, "factor": 0.9828963086689823, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter for October 23; Daily Faceoff confirmation.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.04062880620314617, "goalHistoryGoals": 3.0, "goalHistoryShots": 116.0, "goalExpected": 0.04796566716945114, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.047145277203698516, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.04683348857993669, "goalProbability": 0.0460511994910928, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.07822890888438891, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 9, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.1805827355502467, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.063205417607223, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 18.048148148148147, "Current_PP_Share": 0.051425899953249185, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.173148148148148, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.26603379911000297, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.1111111111111111, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9711545151193198, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9819199317155711, "Position_Factor": 1.0001333630485962, "Input_GP": 9, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 110.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2139.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.441956816189945, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 5.414551607445008, "Prior_5v5_Min": 15.610696517412936, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.6114903799753608, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9848286195916839, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.34640522875817, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.9176819868411416, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9037594843249153, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9819199317155711, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 4.789781798829164, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 0.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 1.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five saved meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. Dated 2024–2026 regular-season appearances.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020536", "date": "20251218", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 21.966666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2024021285", "date": "20250414", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 20.45 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Wyatt Kaiser", "Artyom Levshunov" ], "lineupSource": "NHL.com projected lineup", "isHome": true, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:35:35.615148+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 15, "priorAttempts": 94, "fitPct": -2.7439337719619488, "index": 97.25606622803805, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 49.70212765957447, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.711511602468903, "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 51 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 6.978723404255319, "opponentDeltaPct": -5.805766108288097, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 7.404255319148937, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.5231164238779513, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 8 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 4.425531914893617, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.4830868449991215, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 27.063829787234045, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.49406869911976514, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 26 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 4.425531914893617, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.365981626756792, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 1 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 22, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -2.7439337719619488, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October23 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported unit only. Expected PP minutes retain measured current-season deployment; no guessed transfer.", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8484170", "goalieName": "Jacob Fowler", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8484783", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "window": "2021–22 through October21, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked attempts", "coverageNote": "Observed saved encounters only; missing is unavailable, not zero. Not independently established as complete career coverage." }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8484170", "goalieName": "Jacob Fowler", "opponent": "CHI", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "coverageNote": "Last five observed goalie/team regular-season appearances. Historical coverage is not independently established as career-complete." }, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.2157060363971186, "attemptProjection": 1.1203995644707039, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261021", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 21.0, "sog": 11.0, "seconds": 9746.0, "expectedMinutes": 18.048148148148147, "projectedAttempts": 2.3333333333333335, "onNet": 0.43337222309089374, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.916154770019487, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0295873524263528 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 1.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 110.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.26603379911000297, "projectedAttempts": 0.14510934496909253, "onNet": 0.41741587464680197, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9091960351585663, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0070808959552022 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.029211282666505, "ppAdjusted": 0.02773040665629526, "other": 0.1111111111111111 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.1680528004339112, "baseline": 1.2388059701492538, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 67.0, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.1963540683200482, "adjustedSOG": 1.1805827355502467, "reductionPct": 1.3182830390628397, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.029211282666505, "afterPlayerForm": 1.0186615856177907, "afterRecentDefense": 1.0141083780740998, "afterRecentZones": 1.029211282666505, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.0141083780740998, "adjusted": 1.0037134899268123, "playerFactor": 0.9897497265854084, "defenseFactor": 0.985325749098595, "oldChartFactor": 0.9176819868411416, "newChartFactor": 0.9176819868411416, "playerRecentAttempts": 11.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 90.21666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.9431087417416625, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9310963862455485, "defenseRecentMinutes": 244.7, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.02773040665629526, "afterPlayerForm": 0.027711960709517237, "afterRecentDefense": 0.026960578645713353, "afterRecentZones": 0.02773040665629526, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.026960578645713353, "adjusted": 0.026942644779651904, "playerFactor": 0.9993348115299335, "defenseFactor": 0.9722388488519644, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.03333333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.0, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8240542632130013, "defenseRecentMinutes": 33.28333333333333, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.1805827355502467, "adjustedSOG": 1.1805827355502467, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.031578947368421054, "goalHistoryGoals": 3.0, "goalHistoryShots": 95.0, "goalExpected": 0.0361807352280741, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.0361807352280741, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.035534035246183246, "goalProbability": 0.035534035246183246, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05775822139879574, "modelSOG": 1.1805827355502467, "historyGames": 94, "seasonGames": { "2024": 18, "2025": 67, "2026": 9 }, "historyGoals": 3.0, "historyShots": 116.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.02586206896551724, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.04062880620314617, "goalieFactor": 0.9828963086689823, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 32.79495137440637, "btb": { "id": "8484783", "name": "Artyom Levshunov", "score": 32.79495137440637, "components": { "Goal model": 7.246376811594203, "SOG model": 33.333333333333336, "Unit attack": 0.0, "Opposing lines": 50.0, "Opposing pairs": 58.391608391608386, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 36.231884057971016, "Goalie": 37.32394366197183, "Team H2H": 46.02564102564102, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": true, "games": 8, "exactGames": 6, "individualGames": 2, "roleGames": 1, "exactMinutes": 66.45, "exactWeight": 0.5255041518386714, "individualWeight": 0.34264585045193097, "venueGames": 4, "venueFallback": false, "shares": [ 0.19575750260361366, 0.22804911183814117, 0.21149276368849973, 0.152624887985632, 0.2120757338841134 ], "units": [ { "unit": 1, "names": [ "Cole Caufield", "Oliver Kapanen", "Juraj Slafkovsky" ], "share": 0.19575750260361366, "xGA60": 2.393836441797616 }, { "unit": 3, "names": [ "Zack Bolduc", "Phillip Danault", "Alexandre Texier" ], "share": 0.22804911183814117, "xGA60": 1.4811345950049914 }, { "unit": 2, "names": [ "Chris Kreider", "Alex Newhook", "Josh Anderson" ], "share": 0.21149276368849973, "xGA60": 3.419916688602215 }, { "unit": 4, "names": [ "Kirby Dach", "Owen Beck", "Jake Evans" ], "share": 0.152624887985632, "xGA60": 2.466061001042222 } ], "otherShare": 0.2120757338841134, "weightedXGA60": 2.418146124189745, "score": 50.0 }, "pair": { "available": true, "games": 8, "exactGames": 6, "individualGames": 2, "roleGames": 1, "exactMinutes": 66.45, "exactWeight": 0.5255041518386714, "individualWeight": 0.34264585045193097, "venueGames": 4, "venueFallback": false, "shares": [ 0.3327316836274071, 0.30311497392228337, 0.2271363001721491, 0.13701704227816036 ], "units": [ { "unit": 1, "names": [ "Lane Hutson", "Noah Dobson" ], "share": 0.3327316836274071, "xGA60": 2.66866610905572 }, { "unit": 2, "names": [ "Kaiden Guhle", "Alexandre Carrier" ], "share": 0.30311497392228337, "xGA60": 2.6426590844163664 }, { "unit": 3, "names": [ "Arber Xhekaj", "Mike Matheson" ], "share": 0.2271363001721491, "xGA60": 2.4777575426949268 } ], "otherShare": 0.13701704227816036, "weightedXGA60": 2.5826192029316504, "score": 58.391608391608386 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 1.7309125566233718, "unitPlayers": [ "Wyatt Kaiser", "Artyom Levshunov" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 2, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 66 } }, { "id": "8478454", "name": "Noah Juulsen", "team": "COL", "opponent": "TBL", "position": "D", "currentGP": 8, "currentSOG": 0.5, "priorSOG": 0.5, "currentTOI": 10.625, "currentFiveTOI": 10.4625, "ppShare": 0.005204163330664532, "rate": 0.4210851766786563, "fifty": 0.43728516635829084, "inputs": { "Player": "Noah Juulsen", "Player_ID": "8478454", "Team": "COL", "Opponent": "TBL", "Position": "D", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 0.42825370661484286, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 0.3904797033726742, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 8, "Prior_GP": 52, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.867383512544803, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 2.262550082488805, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 10.995576923076923, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 10.4625, "Current_PP_Share": 0.005204163330664532, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.001354900111916952, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 13.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2498.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 3, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.795185185185185, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.01941754791636156, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.024954926904486554, "Other_State_SOG": 0.03461538461538462, "Environment_Proxy": 0.8844868901771036, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 0.5, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Not on projected lineup", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "PP assignment pending", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-23", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:35:35.615148+00:00", "priorGP": 52.0, "currentTotalSOG": 4.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.027083333333333334, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.50 SOG/game in 8 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 8 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Not listed on latest projected chart; October 23 dressing status unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.166, "currentIXG": 0.02075, "priorTOI": 13.81602564102564, "priorPPTOI": 0.005769230769230769, "deploymentChange": -3.1910256410256395, "ppTOIChange": 0.021314102564102565, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020719", "date": "20260112", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 17.266666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020705", "date": "20260110", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 19.083333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2024020437", "date": "20241208", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 18.466666666666665 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 0.6666666666666666, "opponentDefense": { "team": "TBL", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 218.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 24.22222222222222, "mostAllowedRank": 29, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.310572168589594, "pkSogAllowed60": 47.9002079002079, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 36.333333333333336, "positionUnassignedSOG": 1.0, "positionTotals": { "L": 36.0, "R": 49.0, "D": 66.0, "C": 66.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.333333333333333, "L": 4.0, "R": 5.444444444444445, "D": 7.333333333333333 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 24.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.25, "positionSourceDifference": 1.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 24.22222222222222, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.333333333333333, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8476883", "team": "TBL", "name": "Andrei Vasilevskiy", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-23T17:44:29.480Z", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-23", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.8975903614457832, "gaa": 2.4556616643929057, "gsax": 1.495000000000001, "goalsAllowed": 17.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 18.495, "shotsAgainst": 166.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9911791106382869, "factor": 0.9911791106382869, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter for October 23; Daily Faceoff confirmation.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.04341303161839702, "goalHistoryGoals": 1.0, "goalHistoryShots": 56.0, "goalExpected": 0.020122984388139822, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.01994548176922456, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.019921868414809925, "goalProbability": 0.01974788653904949, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.017398187576043653, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 8, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 0.46352405344602476, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.867383512544803, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 10.4625, "Current_PP_Share": 0.005204163330664532, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.795185185185185, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.024954926904486554, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9588832837562793, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0032616490671127, "Position_Factor": 1.0144938104754524, "Input_GP": 8, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 13.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2498.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 2.262550082488805, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 12.239423076923078, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.001354900111916952, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9991571455328714, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.34640522875817, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.097248627687398, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.096323806780001, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0032616490671127, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 2.4155669872511742, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five saved meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. Dated 2024–2026 regular-season appearances.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020719", "date": "20260112", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 17.266666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020705", "date": "20260110", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 19.083333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2024020437", "date": "20241208", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 18.466666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2024020048", "date": "20241015", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 12.45 } ], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "NHL.com projected lineup", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/colorado-avalanche/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T04:50:37.269727+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 44, "fitPct": 3.2416209229132704, "index": 103.24162092291327, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 83.63636363636364, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.515281930842562, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 37 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 1.8181818181818183, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.609652563126957, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 0.9090909090909092, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.85621916135625, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.9090909090909092, "opponentDeltaPct": -12.897287560223589, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 12.727272727272727, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.418201733515886, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -11.722552252061064, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 3.2416209229132704, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October23 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported unit only. Expected PP minutes retain measured current-season deployment; no guessed transfer.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476883", "goalieName": "Andrei Vasilevskiy", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8478454", "goals": 0, "sog": 4, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 3, "recordedAttempts": 6, "log": [ { "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2, "gameId": "2024020437", "date": "20241208" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 3, "gameId": "2024020048", "date": "20241015" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 1, "gameId": "2023020439", "date": "20231212" } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "window": "2021–22 through October21, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked attempts", "coverageNote": "Observed saved encounters only; missing is unavailable, not zero. Not independently established as complete career coverage." }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476883", "goalieName": "Andrei Vasilevskiy", "opponent": "COL", "games": 5, "availableGames": 13, "shotsAgainst": 157.0, "goalsAgainst": 12.0, "savePct": 0.9235668789808917, "gaa": 2.4254674077817078, "gsax": 7.298, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020668", "date": "20260106", "goalieTeam": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "shotsAgainst": 33.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.223 }, { "gameId": "2025020209", "date": "20251104", "goalieTeam": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "shotsAgainst": 33.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3420.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.409 }, { "gameId": "2024020334", "date": "20241125", "goalieTeam": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "shotsAgainst": 25.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.459 }, { "gameId": "2024020157", "date": "20241030", "goalieTeam": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "shotsAgainst": 35.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.364 }, { "gameId": "2023020842", "date": "20240215", "goalieTeam": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "shotsAgainst": 31.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3591.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.843 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "coverageNote": "Last five observed goalie/team regular-season appearances. Historical coverage is not independently established as career-complete." }, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.5481619033900005, "attemptProjection": 0.33908294155541235, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261021", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 7.0, "sog": 4.0, "seconds": 5022.0, "expectedMinutes": 10.4625, "projectedAttempts": 0.875, "onNet": 0.4170075059553238, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9399951775173531, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9886177218479464 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 13.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.024954926904486554, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.425764192139738, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9635919869864824, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0126481883452998 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.44362242247270645, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.44362242247270645, "baseline": 0.5, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 52.0, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.4661734534836239, "adjustedSOG": 0.46352405344602476, "reductionPct": 0.568329238355525, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.44362242247270645, "afterPlayerForm": 0.44362242247270645, "afterRecentDefense": 0.4413336748137966, "afterRecentZones": 0.44148447324229223, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.4392067557433746, "adjusted": 0.4392067557433746, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9948407755267361, "oldChartFactor": 1.097248627687398, "newChartFactor": 1.0886896167651512, "playerRecentAttempts": 5.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 46.25, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.2926640926640927, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.975764559752153, "defenseRecentMinutes": 244.35, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.0, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.04528859527121, "defenseRecentMinutes": 23.966666666666665, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.46352405344602476, "adjustedSOG": 0.46352405344602476, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.03333333333333333, "goalHistoryGoals": 1.0, "goalHistoryShots": 30.0, "goalExpected": 0.01403617255595521, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.01403617255595521, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.013938124760611478, "goalProbability": 0.013938124760611478, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.057724329324699356, "modelSOG": 0.46352405344602476, "historyGames": 95, "seasonGames": { "2024": 35, "2025": 52, "2026": 8 }, "historyGoals": 1.0, "historyShots": 56.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.017857142857142856, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.04341303161839702, "goalieFactor": 0.9911791106382869, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8478462", "name": "Nicolas Roy", "team": "COL", "opponent": "TBL", "position": "C", "currentGP": 6, "currentSOG": 1.6666666666666667, "priorSOG": 1.027027027027027, "currentTOI": 11.68611111111111, "currentFiveTOI": 10.455555555555556, "ppShare": 0.0, "rate": 0.8106192358561752, "fifty": 1.0004600780847601, "inputs": { "Player": "Nicolas Roy", "Player_ID": "8478462", "Team": "COL", "Opponent": "TBL", "Position": "C", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 0.8316272286124664, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.0844348913234871, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 6, "Prior_GP": 74, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 8.607863974495217, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.7032803748999887, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 18.780889621087315, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 10.86578078078078, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 10.455555555555556, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.14974142030593643, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1891.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 5, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.795185185185185, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.2154113520778843, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.0, "Other_State_SOG": 0.05315315315315315, "Environment_Proxy": 0.8844868901771036, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.027027027027027, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Game-time decision", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "PP assignment pending", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-23", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:35:35.615148+00:00", "priorGP": 74.0, "currentTotalSOG": 10.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.0, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.67 SOG/game in 6 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 6 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Day-to-day or game-time decision in latest report; estimate conditional on dressing.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.69, "currentIXG": 0.2816666666666667, "priorTOI": 14.45945945945946, "priorPPTOI": 0.8202702702702703, "deploymentChange": -2.7733483483483496, "ppTOIChange": -0.8202702702702703, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020912", "date": "20260225", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 15.366666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020461", "date": "20251208", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 13.216666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024021122", "date": "20250323", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 1.0, "toi": 14.066666666666666 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 1.3333333333333333, "opponentDefense": { "team": "TBL", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 218.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 24.22222222222222, "mostAllowedRank": 29, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.310572168589594, "pkSogAllowed60": 47.9002079002079, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 36.333333333333336, "positionUnassignedSOG": 1.0, "positionTotals": { "L": 36.0, "R": 49.0, "D": 66.0, "C": 66.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.333333333333333, "L": 4.0, "R": 5.444444444444445, "D": 7.333333333333333 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 24.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.25, "positionSourceDifference": 1.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 24.22222222222222, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.333333333333333, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8476883", "team": "TBL", "name": "Andrei Vasilevskiy", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-23T17:44:29.480Z", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-23", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.8975903614457832, "gaa": 2.4556616643929057, "gsax": 1.495000000000001, "goalsAllowed": 17.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 18.495, "shotsAgainst": 166.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9911791106382869, "factor": 0.9911791106382869, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter for October 23; Daily Faceoff confirmation.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.12917933732350537, "goalHistoryGoals": 25.0, "goalHistoryShots": 193.0, "goalExpected": 0.17201097265253587, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.1704936828937672, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.15803006552572313, "goalProbability": 0.15675158349838414, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.12784820273389896, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 6, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.331567232163196, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 8.607863974495217, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 10.455555555555556, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.795185185185185, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.0, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.16666666666666666, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9588832837562793, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0032616490671127, "Position_Factor": 0.985038993166415, "Input_GP": 6, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1891.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.7032803748999887, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 18.780889621087315, "Prior_5v5_Min": 11.822972972972973, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.14974142030593643, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.894372357486514, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.437908496732026, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.9052077066002293, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0032616490671127, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 8.607863974495217, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five saved meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. Dated 2024–2026 regular-season appearances.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020912", "date": "20260225", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 15.366666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020461", "date": "20251208", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 13.216666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024021122", "date": "20250323", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 1.0, "toi": 14.066666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020064", "date": "20241017", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 13.266666666666667 } ], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "NHL.com projected lineup", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 15, "priorAttempts": 92, "fitPct": -3.159743113325689, "index": 96.84025688667431, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 10.608695652173914, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.515281930842562, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 33.913043478260875, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.609652563126957, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 32 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 36.95652173913044, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.85621916135625, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 39 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.8695652173913043, "opponentDeltaPct": -12.897287560223589, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 16.782608695652172, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.418201733515886, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 11 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.8695652173913043, "opponentDeltaPct": -11.722552252061064, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 24, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -3.159743113325689, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October23 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported unit only. Expected PP minutes retain measured current-season deployment; no guessed transfer.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476883", "goalieName": "Andrei Vasilevskiy", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8478462", "goals": 2, "sog": 11, "shootingPct": 0.18181818181818182, "gamesWithAttempts": 6, "recordedAttempts": 16, "log": [ { "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 3, "gameId": "2025020912", "date": "20260225" }, { "goals": 1, "sog": 4, "attempts": 4, "gameId": "2024021122", "date": "20250323" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2, "gameId": "2023021094", "date": "20240319" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2, "gameId": "2023020504", "date": "20231221" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1, "gameId": "2022020895", "date": "20230218" }, { "goals": 1, "sog": 4, "attempts": 4, "gameId": "2021020501", "date": "20211221" } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "window": "2021–22 through October21, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked attempts", "coverageNote": "Observed saved encounters only; missing is unavailable, not zero. Not independently established as complete career coverage." }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476883", "goalieName": "Andrei Vasilevskiy", "opponent": "COL", "games": 5, "availableGames": 13, "shotsAgainst": 157.0, "goalsAgainst": 12.0, "savePct": 0.9235668789808917, "gaa": 2.4254674077817078, "gsax": 7.298, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020668", "date": "20260106", "goalieTeam": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "shotsAgainst": 33.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.223 }, { "gameId": "2025020209", "date": "20251104", "goalieTeam": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "shotsAgainst": 33.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3420.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.409 }, { "gameId": "2024020334", "date": "20241125", "goalieTeam": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "shotsAgainst": 25.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.459 }, { "gameId": "2024020157", "date": "20241030", "goalieTeam": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "shotsAgainst": 35.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.364 }, { "gameId": "2023020842", "date": "20240215", "goalieTeam": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "shotsAgainst": 31.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3591.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.843 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "coverageNote": "Last five observed goalie/team regular-season appearances. Historical coverage is not independently established as career-complete." }, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.4416666666666664, "attemptProjection": 1.6287707580289261, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261021", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 19.0, "sog": 9.0, "seconds": 3764.0, "expectedMinutes": 10.455555555555556, "projectedAttempts": 3.1666666666666665, "onNet": 0.4968461455405438, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9399951775173531, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9886177218479464 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 0.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.0, "projectedAttempts": 0, "onNet": 0.5294117647058824, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9635919869864824, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0126481883452998 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.3685520456811295, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.16666666666666666 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.5352187123477963, "baseline": 1.027027027027027, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 74.0, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.3319420382194886, "adjustedSOG": 1.331567232163196, "reductionPct": 0.0281398173146985, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.3685520456811295, "afterPlayerForm": 1.3679273689206417, "afterRecentDefense": 1.3685520456811295, "afterRecentZones": 1.3685520456811295, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.3685520456811295, "adjusted": 1.3679273689206417, "playerFactor": 0.9995435491383325, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.9052077066002293, "newChartFactor": 0.9052077066002293, "playerRecentAttempts": 16.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 53.0, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.9967560410460112, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.1463936017832808, "defenseRecentMinutes": 244.35, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.0, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.04528859527121, "defenseRecentMinutes": 23.966666666666665, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.331567232163196, "adjustedSOG": 1.331567232163196, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.11627906976744186, "goalHistoryGoals": 10.0, "goalHistoryShots": 86.0, "goalExpected": 0.09425805068095061, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.09425805068095061, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.08995210654055909, "goalProbability": 0.08995210654055909, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12849545835787068, "modelSOG": 1.331567232163196, "historyGames": 151, "seasonGames": { "2024": 71, "2025": 74, "2026": 6 }, "historyGoals": 25.0, "historyShots": 193.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.12953367875647667, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.12917933732350537, "goalieFactor": 0.9911791106382869, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8474013", "name": "Ian Cole", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "MTL", "position": "D", "currentGP": 9, "currentSOG": 0.6666666666666666, "priorSOG": 0.7560975609756098, "currentTOI": 16.87037037037037, "currentFiveTOI": 13.968518518518518, "ppShare": 0.008415147265077139, "rate": 0.7008660660298144, "fifty": 0.6908953145153413, "inputs": { "Player": "Ian Cole", "Player_ID": "8474013", "Team": "CHI", "Opponent": "MTL", "Position": "D", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 0.795707375068611, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 0.7827950392075262, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 9, "Prior_GP": 82, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.863582129126342, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 2.8671079010243594, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 14.218572719060521, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 13.968518518518518, "Current_PP_Share": 0.008415147265077139, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.004737435127014478, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 18.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2139.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 6, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.173148148148148, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.03782519856979551, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.04353280349072775, "Other_State_SOG": 0.04390243902439025, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9555676582468344, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 0.7560975609756098, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 1", "ppUnit": "PP assignment pending", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-23", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:35:35.615148+00:00", "priorGP": 82.0, "currentTotalSOG": 6.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.03333333333333333, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.67 SOG/game in 9 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 9 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 23 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.346, "currentIXG": 0.03844444444444444, "priorTOI": 18.26890243902439, "priorPPTOI": 0.0225609756097561, "deploymentChange": -1.3985320686540206, "ppTOIChange": 0.010772357723577233, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020372", "date": "20251126", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 16.366666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020235", "date": "20251108", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 16.666666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2024020704", "date": "20250114", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 19.666666666666668 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 1.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "MTL", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 237.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 26.333333333333332, "mostAllowedRank": 20, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.983070773571598, "pkSogAllowed60": 45.93967517401392, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 38.666666666666664, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 76.0, "D": 64.0, "R": 52.0, "L": 45.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 8.444444444444445, "L": 5.0, "R": 5.777777777777778, "D": 7.111111111111111 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 25.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 3, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27.333333333333332, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 26.333333333333332, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.111111111111111, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8484170", "team": "MTL", "name": "Jacob Fowler", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-23T17:12:10.576Z", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-23", "games": 4, "savePct": 0.9, "gaa": 2.163895011019836, "gsax": 2.1389999999999993, "goalsAllowed": 9.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 11.139, "shotsAgainst": 90.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9828963086689823, "factor": 0.9828963086689823, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter for October 23; Daily Faceoff confirmation.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.04177741024967752, "goalHistoryGoals": 4.0, "goalHistoryShots": 134.0, "goalExpected": 0.0249565982131533, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.0245297482606433, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.02464775686013971, "goalProbability": 0.02423133893381154, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.04164179263281692, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 9, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 0.5973706379596839, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.863582129126342, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 13.968518518518518, "Current_PP_Share": 0.008415147265077139, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.173148148148148, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.04353280349072775, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9711545151193198, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9819199317155711, "Position_Factor": 1.0001333630485962, "Input_GP": 9, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 18.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2139.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 2.8671079010243594, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 14.802032520325204, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.004737435127014478, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9848286195916839, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.34640522875817, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.8921729916025367, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.8786374957569092, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9819199317155711, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 3.6060100166944906, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five saved meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. Dated 2024–2026 regular-season appearances.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020372", "date": "20251126", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 16.366666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020235", "date": "20251108", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 16.666666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2024020704", "date": "20250114", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 19.666666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2024020346", "date": "20241126", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 23.416666666666668 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Alex Vlasic", "Ian Cole" ], "lineupSource": "NHL.com projected lineup", "isHome": true, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:35:35.615148+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 8, "priorAttempts": 108, "fitPct": -3.5942336132487753, "index": 96.40576638675122, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 61.2037037037037, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.711511602468903, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 64 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 9.351851851851851, "opponentDeltaPct": -5.805766108288097, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 2.592592592592593, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.5231164238779513, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 8.888888888888891, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.4830868449991215, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 24 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 16.11111111111111, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.49406869911976514, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 1.8518518518518516, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.365981626756792, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 5 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -3.5942336132487753, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October23 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported unit only. Expected PP minutes retain measured current-season deployment; no guessed transfer.", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8484170", "goalieName": "Jacob Fowler", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8474013", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "window": "2021–22 through October21, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked attempts", "coverageNote": "Observed saved encounters only; missing is unavailable, not zero. Not independently established as complete career coverage." }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8484170", "goalieName": "Jacob Fowler", "opponent": "CHI", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "coverageNote": "Last five observed goalie/team regular-season appearances. Historical coverage is not independently established as career-complete." }, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.5857583305046061, "attemptProjection": 0.41198823144627517, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261021", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 9.0, "sog": 6.0, "seconds": 7543.0, "expectedMinutes": 13.968518518518518, "projectedAttempts": 1.0, "onNet": 0.43676996338056706, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.916154770019487, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0295873524263528 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 18.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.04353280349072775, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.425764192139738, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9091960351585663, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0070808959552022 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.49887328097544065, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.49887328097544065, "baseline": 0.7560975609756098, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 82.0, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.6017629929755084, "adjustedSOG": 0.5973706379596839, "reductionPct": 0.7299144459026685, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.49887328097544065, "afterPlayerForm": 0.49887328097544065, "afterRecentDefense": 0.4915526892823999, "afterRecentZones": 0.49887328097544065, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.4915526892823999, "adjusted": 0.4915526892823999, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.985325749098595, "oldChartFactor": 0.8921729916025367, "newChartFactor": 0.8921729916025367, "playerRecentAttempts": 7.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 67.31666666666666, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.452532254958598, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9310963862455485, "defenseRecentMinutes": 244.7, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9722388488519644, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.06666666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8240542632130013, "defenseRecentMinutes": 33.28333333333333, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.5973706379596839, "adjustedSOG": 0.5973706379596839, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.04411764705882353, "goalHistoryGoals": 3.0, "goalHistoryShots": 68.0, "goalExpected": 0.03092056173660946, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.03092056173660946, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.030447410409060745, "goalProbability": 0.030447410409060745, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.0577591399842454, "modelSOG": 0.5973706379596839, "historyGames": 173, "seasonGames": { "2024": 82, "2025": 82, "2026": 9 }, "historyGoals": 4.0, "historyShots": 134.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.029850746268656716, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.04177741024967752, "goalieFactor": 0.9828963086689823, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 28.760836938118015, "btb": { "id": "8474013", "name": "Ian Cole", "score": 28.760836938118015, "components": { "Goal model": 1.4492753623188406, "SOG model": 1.4492753623188406, "Unit attack": 9.090909090909092, "Opposing lines": 42.30769230769231, "Opposing pairs": 63.98601398601399, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 5.797101449275362, "Goalie": 37.32394366197183, "Team H2H": 52.417582417582416, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": true, "games": 8, "exactGames": 6, "individualGames": 2, "roleGames": 0, "exactMinutes": 75.06666666666666, "exactWeight": 0.5557749259624877, "individualWeight": 0.3140897399256931, "venueGames": 4, "venueFallback": false, "shares": [ 0.33966635257682126, 0.21388783533525596, 0.1485809369853208, 0.12903843092409695, 0.16882644417850498 ], "units": [ { "unit": 1, "names": [ "Cole Caufield", "Oliver Kapanen", "Juraj Slafkovsky" ], "share": 0.33966635257682126, "xGA60": 2.393836441797616 }, { "unit": 3, "names": [ "Zack Bolduc", "Phillip Danault", "Alexandre Texier" ], "share": 0.21388783533525596, "xGA60": 1.4811345950049914 }, { "unit": 2, "names": [ "Chris Kreider", "Alex Newhook", "Josh Anderson" ], "share": 0.1485809369853208, "xGA60": 3.419916688602215 }, { "unit": 4, "names": [ "Kirby Dach", "Owen Beck", "Jake Evans" ], "share": 0.12903843092409695, "xGA60": 2.466061001042222 } ], "otherShare": 0.16882644417850498, "weightedXGA60": 2.363913920340765, "score": 42.30769230769231 }, "pair": { "available": true, "games": 8, "exactGames": 6, "individualGames": 2, "roleGames": 0, "exactMinutes": 75.06666666666666, "exactWeight": 0.5557749259624877, "individualWeight": 0.3140897399256931, "venueGames": 4, "venueFallback": false, "shares": [ 0.3618595086960356, 0.28485329927893654, 0.23348929607185262, 0.11979789595317519 ], "units": [ { "unit": 1, "names": [ "Lane Hutson", "Noah Dobson" ], "share": 0.3618595086960356, "xGA60": 2.66866610905572 }, { "unit": 2, "names": [ "Kaiden Guhle", "Alexandre Carrier" ], "share": 0.28485329927893654, "xGA60": 2.6426590844163664 }, { "unit": 3, "names": [ "Arber Xhekaj", "Mike Matheson" ], "share": 0.23348929607185262, "xGA60": 2.4777575426949268 } ], "otherShare": 0.11979789595317519, "weightedXGA60": 2.5862548552090407, "score": 63.98601398601399 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.028023967061903, "unitPlayers": [ "Alex Vlasic", "Ian Cole" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 70 } }, { "id": "8478416", "name": "Erik Cernak", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "position": "D", "currentGP": 9, "currentSOG": 1.4444444444444444, "priorSOG": 0.8688524590163934, "currentTOI": 19.038888888888888, "currentFiveTOI": 15.811111111111112, "ppShare": 0.011920980926430519, "rate": 0.9504532721835357, "fifty": 1.1555212825726795, "inputs": { "Player": "Erik Cernak", "Player_ID": "8478416", "Team": "TBL", "Opponent": "COL", "Position": "D", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 0.8916220214159336, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.121986018098574, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 9, "Prior_GP": 61, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.481377371749824, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.415365349221107, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 15.387695810564662, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 15.811111111111112, "Current_PP_Share": 0.011920980926430519, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.009923939267175493, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 35.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2936.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 5, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.612685185185185, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.05222421476946823, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.054987732112221216, "Other_State_SOG": 0.04426229508196721, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9914667421548949, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 0.8688524590163934, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 2", "ppUnit": "PP assignment pending", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-23", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:35:35.615148+00:00", "priorGP": 61.0, "currentTotalSOG": 13.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.06481481481481483, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.44 SOG/game in 9 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 9 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 23 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.867, "currentIXG": 0.09633333333333333, "priorTOI": 17.615573770491803, "priorPPTOI": 0.05027322404371585, "deploymentChange": 1.4233151183970847, "ppTOIChange": 0.014541590771098976, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020668", "date": "20260106", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 20.3 }, { "gameId": "2025020209", "date": "20251104", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 18.95 }, { "gameId": "2024020334", "date": "20241125", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 16.216666666666665 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 1.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "COL", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 273.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.3, "mostAllowedRank": 16, "fiveSogAllowed60": 27.02393375298751, "pkSogAllowed60": 47.51429828420589, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 40.2, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 100.0, "R": 60.0, "L": 45.0, "D": 68.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.0, "L": 4.5, "R": 6.0, "D": 6.8 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 29.0, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.8, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.3, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.8, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8478406", "team": "COL", "name": "Mackenzie Blackwood", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-23T16:26:32.640Z", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-23", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.8888888888888888, "gaa": 2.897734132893307, "gsax": -2.4450000000000003, "goalsAllowed": 20.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 17.555, "shotsAgainst": 180.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0252999843886221, "factor": 1.0252999843886221, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter for October 23; Daily Faceoff confirmation.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.051177154322343064, "goalHistoryGoals": 6.0, "goalHistoryShots": 130.0, "goalExpected": 0.05939420403890265, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.06089687647386153, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.05766477642160755, "goalProbability": 0.059079734211285255, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.14149577896777066, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 9, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.1605608952933157, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.481377371749824, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 15.811111111111112, "Current_PP_Share": 0.011920980926430519, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.612685185185185, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.054987732112221216, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0289555868427727, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9996701327073623, "Position_Factor": 0.9904286105353721, "Input_GP": 9, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 35.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2936.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.415365349221107, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 14.399726775956283, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.009923939267175493, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9628113879003559, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.34640522875817, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.0065021749426137, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9690717559812247, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9996701327073623, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 6.218442731862876, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five saved meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. Dated 2024–2026 regular-season appearances.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020668", "date": "20260106", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 20.3 }, { "gameId": "2025020209", "date": "20251104", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 18.95 }, { "gameId": "2024020334", "date": "20241125", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 16.216666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2024020157", "date": "20241030", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 12.1 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Ryan McDonagh", "Erik Cernak" ], "lineupSource": "NHL.com projected lineup", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:35:35.615148+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 17, "priorAttempts": 75, "fitPct": 0.21673916475378974, "index": 100.21673916475379, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 68.69019607843137, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.604370751696635, "currentAttempts": 11, "priorAttempts": 56 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 8.658823529411764, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.2025641924569896, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 7.79607843137255, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.26262818174886604, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 8 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 4.0627450980392155, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.0950116912032684, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 7.2627450980392165, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.044692588641311204, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 3.5294117647058822, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.6551158457307906, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 0.21673916475378974, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October23 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported unit only. Expected PP minutes retain measured current-season deployment; no guessed transfer.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478406", "goalieName": "Mackenzie Blackwood", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8478416", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "window": "2021–22 through October21, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked attempts", "coverageNote": "Observed saved encounters only; missing is unavailable, not zero. Not independently established as complete career coverage." }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478406", "goalieName": "Mackenzie Blackwood", "opponent": "TBL", "games": 4, "availableGames": 4, "shotsAgainst": 99.0, "goalsAgainst": 15.0, "savePct": 0.8484848484848485, "gaa": 4.800426704595964, "gsax": -3.8269999999999995, "log": [ { "gameId": "2024020413", "date": "20241205", "goalieTeam": "SJS", "opponent": "TBL", "shotsAgainst": 23.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 2400.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.907 }, { "gameId": "2023021108", "date": "20240321", "goalieTeam": "SJS", "opponent": "TBL", "shotsAgainst": 21.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.592 }, { "gameId": "2023020106", "date": "20231026", "goalieTeam": "SJS", "opponent": "TBL", "shotsAgainst": 21.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 1649.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.962 }, { "gameId": "2021020264", "date": "20211120", "goalieTeam": "NJD", "opponent": "TBL", "shotsAgainst": 34.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.712 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "coverageNote": "Last five observed goalie/team regular-season appearances. Historical coverage is not independently established as career-complete." }, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.3997703141951023, "attemptProjection": 1.415071246271857, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261021", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 31.0, "sog": 13.0, "seconds": 8538.0, "expectedMinutes": 15.811111111111112, "projectedAttempts": 3.4444444444444446, "onNet": 0.40456083752411676, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0290266956001277, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9868443082842028 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 35.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.054987732112221216, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.425764192139738, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9649306914974484, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9896116972997503 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.4074207802334797, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.4074207802334797, "baseline": 0.8688524590163934, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 61.0, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.191993451746645, "adjustedSOG": 1.1842458115237915, "reductionPct": 0.6499733879830383, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.4074207802334797, "afterPlayerForm": 1.395915342468739, "afterRecentDefense": 1.4074207802334797, "afterRecentZones": 1.4060018850543399, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.4060018850543399, "adjusted": 1.3945080465287234, "playerFactor": 0.9918251613687045, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.0065021749426137, "newChartFactor": 1.0044616671973967, "playerRecentAttempts": 16.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 77.18333333333334, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.9515676263051943, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0338983050847457, "defenseRecentMinutes": 251.61666666666667, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.38333333333333336, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.594204503506829, "defenseRecentMinutes": 15.05, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.1842458115237915, "adjustedSOG": 1.1605608952933157, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.045454545454545456, "goalHistoryGoals": 3.0, "goalHistoryShots": 66.0, "goalExpected": 0.04320242146288799, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.04320242146288799, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.042282492134242344, "goalProbability": 0.042282492134242344, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.057707454941389055, "modelSOG": 1.1605608952933157, "historyGames": 146, "seasonGames": { "2024": 76, "2025": 61, "2026": 9 }, "historyGoals": 6.0, "historyShots": 130.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.046153846153846156, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.051177154322343064, "goalieFactor": 1.0252999843886221, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 38.085295292582494, "btb": { "id": "8478416", "name": "Erik Cernak", "score": 38.085295292582494, "components": { "Goal model": 14.492753623188406, "SOG model": 31.884057971014492, "Unit attack": 18.181818181818183, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 47.2027972027972, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 20.28985507246377, "Goalie": 88.02816901408451, "Team H2H": 40.54945054945055, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Incomplete current opposing units or 5v5 minute baselines; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Incomplete current opposing units or 5v5 minute baselines", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": true, "games": 8, "exactGames": 8, "individualGames": 0, "roleGames": 0, "exactMinutes": 75.6, "exactWeight": 0.5575221238938053, "individualWeight": 0, "venueGames": 3, "venueFallback": false, "shares": [ 0.3170095021325525, 0.3083859371762904, 0.2783610433017648, 0.09624351738939216 ], "units": [ { "unit": 2, "names": [ "Brett Kulak", "Sam Malinski" ], "share": 0.3170095021325525, "xGA60": 2.386620819090907 }, { "unit": 1, "names": [ "Devon Toews", "Cale Makar" ], "share": 0.3083859371762904, "xGA60": 2.232944179481916 }, { "unit": 3, "names": [ "Josh Manson", "Brent Burns" ], "share": 0.2783610433017648, "xGA60": 2.608622014683556 } ], "otherShare": 0.09624351738939216, "weightedXGA60": 2.3977335252438685, "score": 47.2027972027972 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.3371018565247756, "unitPlayers": [ "Ryan McDonagh", "Erik Cernak" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 61 } }, { "id": "8484403", "name": "Florian Xhekaj", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "CHI", "position": "R", "currentGP": 2, "currentSOG": 1.0, "priorSOG": 0.8, "currentTOI": 7.6, "currentFiveTOI": 7.583333333333333, "ppShare": 0.0, "rate": 0.8101164219742486, "fifty": 0.8997973448871334, "inputs": { "Player": "Florian Xhekaj", "Player_ID": "8484403", "Team": "MTL", "Opponent": "CHI", "Position": "L", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 0.641809817442717, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 0.7096192254254949, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 2, "Prior_GP": 5, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 7.912087912087912, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.001736714136853, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 8.187333333333333, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 7.583333333333333, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0, "Prior_PP_Share": 0, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 530.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 2, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.349074074074074, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.0, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.0, "Other_State_SOG": 0.0, "Environment_Proxy": 1.1241623654244617, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 0.8, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Out (reported)", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "PP assignment pending", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-23", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:35:35.615148+00:00", "priorGP": 5.0, "currentTotalSOG": 2.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.0, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.00 SOG/game in 2 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 2 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Listed unavailable on latest report; not projected to dress.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.081, "currentIXG": 0.0405, "priorTOI": 9.596666666666668, "priorPPTOI": 0.0, "deploymentChange": -1.996666666666668, "ppTOIChange": 0.0, "h2hLog": [], "h2hGames": 0, "h2hAvailableGames": 0, "h2hSOG": null, "opponentDefense": { "team": "CHI", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 275.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 30.555555555555557, "mostAllowedRank": 4, "fiveSogAllowed60": 29.037678778147054, "pkSogAllowed60": 51.98019801980198, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 47.0, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 88.0, "D": 70.0, "R": 50.0, "L": 67.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.777777777777779, "L": 7.444444444444445, "R": 5.555555555555555, "D": 7.777777777777778 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 30.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.8, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 30.555555555555557, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.555555555555555, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8481519", "team": "CHI", "name": "Spencer Knight", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-23T17:38:57.370Z", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-23", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.8878923766816144, "gaa": 3.589375448671931, "gsax": -1.0060000000000002, "goalsAllowed": 25.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 23.994, "shotsAgainst": 223.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0134476231189056, "factor": 1.0134476231189056, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter for October 23; Daily Faceoff confirmation.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.12123029335445214, "goalHistoryGoals": 0.0, "goalHistoryShots": 6.0, "goalExpected": 0.11603671333020106, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.1175971313190221, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.10955746841332173, "goalProbability": 0.11094584745009461, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.13883790367728854, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 2, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 0.9571593874720229, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 7.912087912087912, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 7.583333333333333, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.349074074074074, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.0, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0652555848758556, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0415262503506049, "Position_Factor": 1.0368080348179562, "Input_GP": 2, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 530.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.001736714136853, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 9.596666666666668, "Prior_PP_Share": 0, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0152430255967788, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.382352941176471, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.25, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0415262503506049, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 7.912087912087912, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [], "h2hWindow": "Last five saved meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. Dated 2024–2026 regular-season appearances.", "h2hFullLog": [], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "NHL.com projected lineup", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "rosterPosition": "L", "projectedPosition": "R", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/montreal-canadiens/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T04:50:37.269727+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 5, "fitPct": 10.203375582563595, "index": 110.2033755825636, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 16.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.6823628774928636, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 8.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.333228225851869, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 38.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 17.724165752730244, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 38.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.874621784366013, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.336952686487635, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -11.504840448330498, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 10.203375582563595, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October23 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported unit only. Expected PP minutes retain measured current-season deployment; no guessed transfer.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481519", "goalieName": "Spencer Knight", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8484403", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "window": "2021–22 through October21, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked attempts", "coverageNote": "Observed saved encounters only; missing is unavailable, not zero. Not independently established as complete career coverage." }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481519", "goalieName": "Spencer Knight", "opponent": "MTL", "games": 4, "availableGames": 4, "shotsAgainst": 118.0, "goalsAgainst": 13.0, "savePct": 0.8898305084745762, "gaa": 3.269526337851055, "gsax": 0.5030000000000001, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020536", "date": "20251218", "goalieTeam": "CHI", "opponent": "MTL", "shotsAgainst": 34.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3563.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.275 }, { "gameId": "2025020031", "date": "20251011", "goalieTeam": "CHI", "opponent": "MTL", "shotsAgainst": 28.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3585.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.45 }, { "gameId": "2024020566", "date": "20241228", "goalieTeam": "FLA", "opponent": "MTL", "shotsAgainst": 25.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3566.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.261 }, { "gameId": "2021021020", "date": "20220324", "goalieTeam": "FLA", "opponent": "MTL", "shotsAgainst": 31.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.517 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "coverageNote": "Last five observed goalie/team regular-season appearances. Historical coverage is not independently established as career-complete." }, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.15, "attemptProjection": 1.100498257968108, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261021", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 4.0, "sog": 2.0, "seconds": 910.0, "expectedMinutes": 7.583333333333333, "projectedAttempts": 2.0, "onNet": 0.492436546606796, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0621717863909321, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0519965736844064 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 0.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.0, "projectedAttempts": 0, "onNet": 0.5605095541401274, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.938442005242464, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.067787892452511 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.1252491289840538, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.1252491289840538, "baseline": 0.8, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 5.0, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.9951494773904324, "adjustedSOG": 0.9766932525224724, "reductionPct": 1.8546183550593343, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.1252491289840538, "afterPlayerForm": 1.1252491289840538, "afterRecentDefense": 1.0944887542041206, "afterRecentZones": 1.1252491289840538, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.0944887542041206, "adjusted": 1.0944887542041206, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9726634982533106, "oldChartFactor": 1.25, "newChartFactor": 1.25, "playerRecentAttempts": 4.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 15.166666666666666, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8712117732613771, "defenseRecentMinutes": 241.91666666666666, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.0, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0243821773082225, "defenseRecentMinutes": 25.916666666666668, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.9766932525224724, "adjustedSOG": 0.9571593874720229, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.0, "goalHistoryGoals": 0.0, "goalHistoryShots": 6.0, "goalExpected": 0.0, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.0, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.0, "goalProbability": 0.0, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12850411095571926, "modelSOG": 0.9571593874720229, "historyGames": 7, "seasonGames": { "2025": 5, "2026": 2 }, "historyGoals": 0.0, "historyShots": 6.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.0, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.12123029335445214, "goalieFactor": 1.0134476231189056, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8477492", "name": "Nathan MacKinnon", "team": "COL", "opponent": "TBL", "position": "C", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 4.4, "priorSOG": 4.4, "currentTOI": 21.283333333333335, "currentFiveTOI": 15.866666666666665, "ppShare": 0.7407527579493836, "rate": 3.771644023670908, "fifty": 3.773991642808247, "inputs": { "Player": "Nathan MacKinnon", "Player_ID": "8477492", "Team": "COL", "Opponent": "TBL", "Position": "C", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 3.7246210953238874, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 3.8198456637094194, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 10, "Prior_GP": 80, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 11.344537815126051, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 9.783691388236452, "Current_PP_SOG60": 12.614980289093298, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 17.227539364001235, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 16.189104166666667, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 15.866666666666665, "Current_PP_Share": 0.7407527579493836, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.7391046554252199, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2283.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3082.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 5, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.795185185185185, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 3.5496757637616905, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 3.5520466508039514, "Other_State_SOG": 0.465, "Environment_Proxy": 0.8844868901771036, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 4.4, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 1", "ppUnit": "PP1 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-23", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:35:35.615148+00:00", "priorGP": 80.0, "currentTotalSOG": 44.0, "currentPPTOI": 3.8049999999999997, "volumeNote": "Observed 4.40 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 23 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 4.878, "currentIXG": 0.4878, "priorTOI": 22.261875, "priorPPTOI": 4.04875, "deploymentChange": -0.9785416666666649, "ppTOIChange": -0.24375000000000036, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020668", "date": "20260106", "team": "COL", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "away", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 22.616666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020209", "date": "20251104", "team": "COL", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "home", "sog": 6.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 22.0 }, { "gameId": "2024020334", "date": "20241125", "team": "COL", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 21.85 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 3.6666666666666665, "opponentDefense": { "team": "TBL", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 218.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 24.22222222222222, "mostAllowedRank": 29, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.310572168589594, "pkSogAllowed60": 47.9002079002079, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 36.333333333333336, "positionUnassignedSOG": 1.0, "positionTotals": { "L": 36.0, "R": 49.0, "D": 66.0, "C": 66.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.333333333333333, "L": 4.0, "R": 5.444444444444445, "D": 7.333333333333333 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 24.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.25, "positionSourceDifference": 1.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 24.22222222222222, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.333333333333333, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8476883", "team": "TBL", "name": "Andrei Vasilevskiy", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-23T17:44:29.480Z", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-23", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.8975903614457832, "gaa": 2.4556616643929057, "gsax": 1.495000000000001, "goalsAllowed": 17.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 18.495, "shotsAgainst": 166.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9911791106382869, "factor": 0.9911791106382869, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter for October 23; Daily Faceoff confirmation.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.12726792203196954, "goalHistoryGoals": 91.0, "goalHistoryShots": 716.0, "goalExpected": 0.5176772156998893, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.5131108422551209, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.40409690397603876, "goalProbability": 0.40136956561912596, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.27273383569128007, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 4.067617412421093, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 11.344537815126051, "Current_PP_SOG60": 12.614980289093298, "Current_5v5_Min": 15.866666666666665, "Current_PP_Share": 0.7407527579493836, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.795185185185185, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 3.5520466508039514, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.6, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9588832837562793, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0032616490671127, "Position_Factor": 0.985038993166415, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2283.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3082.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 9.783691388236452, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 17.227539364001235, "Prior_5v5_Min": 16.941458333333333, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.7391046554252199, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.894372357486514, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.437908496732026, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.8581009211248722, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.8639530934953911, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.8667710052968194, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 12.173507462686567, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 11.628980156898939, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 5.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five saved meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. Dated 2024–2026 regular-season appearances.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020668", "date": "20260106", "team": "COL", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "away", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 22.616666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020209", "date": "20251104", "team": "COL", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "home", "sog": 6.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 22.0 }, { "gameId": "2024020334", "date": "20241125", "team": "COL", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 21.85 }, { "gameId": "2024020157", "date": "20241030", "team": "COL", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 24.966666666666665 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Artturi Lehkonen", "Nathan MacKinnon", "Martin Necas" ], "lineupSource": "NHL.com projected lineup", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "rosterPosition": "C", "projectedPosition": "C", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:35:35.615148+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/colorado-avalanche/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-22T17:33:02.593Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 42, "priorAttempts": 298, "fitPct": -4.729969295837591, "index": 95.27003070416241, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 17.46883988494727, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.515281930842562, "currentAttempts": 8, "priorAttempts": 45 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 21.09300095877277, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.609652563126957, "currentAttempts": 8, "priorAttempts": 72 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 24.573346116970278, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.85621916135625, "currentAttempts": 11, "priorAttempts": 66 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 22.92425695110259, "opponentDeltaPct": -12.897287560223589, "currentAttempts": 9, "priorAttempts": 75 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 11.035474592521572, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.418201733515886, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 29 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 2.905081495685523, "opponentDeltaPct": -11.722552252061064, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 11 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 9, "priorAttempts": 123, "fitPct": -4.534896883486965, "index": 95.46510311651303, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 13.821138211382115, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.0484005739127014, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 22 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 9.91869918699187, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.8060162233483652, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 10 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 17.073170731707314, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.6036826641455946, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 32 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 35.609756097560975, "opponentDeltaPct": -15.514716416172803, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 48 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 23.2520325203252, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.241804509586572, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 10 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.3252032520325203, "opponentDeltaPct": 40.87182317476231, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -4.729969295837591, "zonePPFit": -4.534896883486965, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October23 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported unit only. Expected PP minutes retain measured current-season deployment; no guessed transfer.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476883", "goalieName": "Andrei Vasilevskiy", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8477492", "goals": 2, "sog": 31, "shootingPct": 0.06451612903225806, "gamesWithAttempts": 8, "recordedAttempts": 40, "log": [ { "goals": 0, "sog": 6, "attempts": 6, "gameId": "2025020668", "date": "20260106" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 6, "attempts": 7, "gameId": "2025020209", "date": "20251104" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 3, "gameId": "2024020157", "date": "20241030" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 5, "attempts": 6, "gameId": "2023020842", "date": "20240215" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 3, "gameId": "2023020324", "date": "20231127" }, { "goals": 1, "sog": 7, "attempts": 7, "gameId": "2022020862", "date": "20230214" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 4, "gameId": "2022020821", "date": "20230209" }, { "goals": 1, "sog": 3, "attempts": 4, "gameId": "2021020068", "date": "20211023" } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "window": "2021–22 through October21, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked attempts", "coverageNote": "Observed saved encounters only; missing is unavailable, not zero. Not independently established as complete career coverage." }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476883", "goalieName": "Andrei Vasilevskiy", "opponent": "COL", "games": 5, "availableGames": 13, "shotsAgainst": 157.0, "goalsAgainst": 12.0, "savePct": 0.9235668789808917, "gaa": 2.4254674077817078, "gsax": 7.298, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020668", "date": "20260106", "goalieTeam": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "shotsAgainst": 33.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.223 }, { "gameId": "2025020209", "date": "20251104", "goalieTeam": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "shotsAgainst": 33.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3420.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.409 }, { "gameId": "2024020334", "date": "20241125", "goalieTeam": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "shotsAgainst": 25.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.459 }, { "gameId": "2024020157", "date": "20241030", "goalieTeam": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "shotsAgainst": 35.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.364 }, { "gameId": "2023020842", "date": "20240215", "goalieTeam": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "shotsAgainst": 31.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3591.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.843 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "coverageNote": "Last five observed goalie/team regular-season appearances. Historical coverage is not independently established as career-complete." }, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 3.797319011065133, "attemptProjection": 4.028706616159593, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261021", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 59.0, "sog": 30.0, "seconds": 9520.0, "expectedMinutes": 15.866666666666665, "projectedAttempts": 5.899999999999999, "onNet": 0.507177835250436, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9399951775173531, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9886177218479464 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 13.0, "sog": 8.0, "seconds": 2283.0, "expectedMinutes": 3.5520466508039514, "projectedAttempts": 1.2135770423246088, "onNet": 0.5471521942110177, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9635919869864824, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0126481883452998 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 2.6653889209163912, "ppAdjusted": 0.6476238926959719, "other": 0.6 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 3.9130128136123634, "baseline": 4.4, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 80.0, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 4.107807688167418, "adjustedSOG": 4.067617412421093, "reductionPct": 0.9783874708179208, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 2.6653889209163912, "afterPlayerForm": 2.600441780223924, "afterRecentDefense": 2.6653889209163917, "afterRecentZones": 2.6653889209163912, "afterDefenseAndZones": 2.6653889209163917, "adjusted": 2.6004417802239246, "playerFactor": 0.975633146749129, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.8581009211248722, "newChartFactor": 0.8581009211248722, "playerRecentAttempts": 27.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 84.33333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.8609901520734241, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.1463936017832808, "defenseRecentMinutes": 244.35, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.6476238926959719, "afterPlayerForm": 0.6476238926959719, "afterRecentDefense": 0.6476238926959719, "afterRecentZones": 0.645587240477898, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.645587240477898, "adjusted": 0.645587240477898, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.8639530934953911, "newChartFactor": 0.8585166025099529, "playerRecentAttempts": 8.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 19.183333333333334, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.220610840072178, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.04528859527121, "defenseRecentMinutes": 23.966666666666665, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 4.067617412421093, "adjustedSOG": 4.067617412421093, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.14898989898989898, "goalHistoryGoals": 59.0, "goalHistoryShots": 396.0, "goalExpected": 0.5619368621125848, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.5619368621125848, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.429896218609927, "goalProbability": 0.429896218609927, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12850624378087153, "modelSOG": 4.067617412421093, "historyGames": 169, "seasonGames": { "2024": 79, "2025": 80, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 91.0, "historyShots": 716.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.1270949720670391, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.12726792203196954, "goalieFactor": 0.9911791106382869, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 63.83415911237916, "btb": { "id": "8477492", "name": "Nathan MacKinnon", "score": 63.83415911237916, "components": { "Goal model": 97.10144927536231, "SOG model": 100.0, "Unit attack": 86.66666666666667, "Opposing lines": 22.727272727272727, "Opposing pairs": 40.90909090909091, "PP": 75.0, "Shot quality": 98.55072463768116, "Goalie": 11.971830985915492, "Team H2H": 38.35164835164835, "Goalie H2H": 32.60381593714927 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": true, "weightedXGA60": 2.0817124528095157, "games": 6, "exactGames": 5, "shares": [ 0.31306731967034584, 0.25642942336370306, 0.25561523152915855, 0.1748880254367925 ], "score": 22.727272727272727 }, "pair": { "available": true, "weightedXGA60": 2.322764700044611, "games": 2, "exactGames": 1, "shares": [ 0.3756136612550117, 0.30810919743134657, 0.30218232685591, 0.014094814457731614 ], "score": 40.90909090909091 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 3.3319209217672654, "unitPlayers": [ "Artturi Lehkonen", "Nathan MacKinnon", "Martin Necas" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": 31, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 9 } }, { "id": "8486171", "name": "T.J. Hughes", "team": "COL", "opponent": "TBL", "position": "R", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 2.1, "priorSOG": null, "currentTOI": 14.844999999999999, "currentFiveTOI": 10.581666666666667, "ppShare": 0.7251784555483453, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 3", "ppUnit": "PP1 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-23", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:35:35.615148+00:00", "priorGP": null, "currentTotalSOG": 21.0, "currentPPTOI": 3.725, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.10 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 23 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 2.139, "currentIXG": 0.21389999999999998, "priorTOI": null, "priorPPTOI": null, "deploymentChange": null, "ppTOIChange": null, "h2hLog": [], "h2hGames": 0, "h2hAvailableGames": 0, "h2hSOG": null, "opponentDefense": { "team": "TBL", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 218.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 24.22222222222222, "mostAllowedRank": 29, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.310572168589594, "pkSogAllowed60": 47.9002079002079, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 36.333333333333336, "positionUnassignedSOG": 1.0, "positionTotals": { "L": 36.0, "R": 49.0, "D": 66.0, "C": 66.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.333333333333333, "L": 4.0, "R": 5.444444444444445, "D": 7.333333333333333 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 24.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.25, "positionSourceDifference": 1.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 24.22222222222222, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.444444444444445, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8476883", "team": "TBL", "name": "Andrei Vasilevskiy", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-23T17:44:29.480Z", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-23", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.8975903614457832, "gaa": 2.4556616643929057, "gsax": 1.495000000000001, "goalsAllowed": 17.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 18.495, "shotsAgainst": 166.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9911791106382869, "factor": 0.9911791106382869, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter for October 23; Daily Faceoff confirmation.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.12273013686143613, "goalHistoryGoals": 2.0, "goalHistoryShots": 21.0, "goalExpected": 0.22474166094879303, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.22275923962259608, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.2012774666698875, "goalProbability": 0.19969249156094968, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.15849751089378195, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.831185613379778, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 6.804221137186959, "Current_PP_SOG60": 11.275167785234899, "Current_5v5_Min": 10.581666666666667, "Current_PP_Share": 0.7251784555483453, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.795185185185185, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 3.477364986660899, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.2, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9588832837562793, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0032616490671127, "Position_Factor": 1.0162667912072254, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2235.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3082.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": null, "Prior_PP_SOG60": null, "Prior_5v5_Min": null, "Prior_PP_Share": null, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.005464480874317, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.382352941176471, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.959181994610368, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.057886732465399, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9644234262749055, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0613371877394557, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 7.615018508725542, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 10.102899906454631, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [], "h2hWindow": "Last five saved meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. Dated 2024–2026 regular-season appearances.", "h2hFullLog": [], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Jaden Schwartz", "Fedor Svechkov", "T.J. Hughes" ], "lineupSource": "NHL.com projected lineup", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "rosterPosition": "R", "projectedPosition": "R", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:35:35.615148+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/colorado-avalanche/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-22T17:33:02.593Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 19, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": -1.3606001796543978, "index": 98.6393998203456, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 26.31578947368421, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.515281930842562, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 10.526315789473683, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.609652563126957, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 26.31578947368421, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.85621916135625, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -12.897287560223589, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 36.84210526315789, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.418201733515886, "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -11.722552252061064, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 1, "playerPriorWeight": 0, "currentSeasonOnly": true }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 8, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": 1.9295577488466336, "index": 101.92955774884663, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.0484005739127014, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 37.5, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.8060162233483652, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 62.5, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.6036826641455946, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -15.514716416172803, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.241804509586572, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 40.87182317476231, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 1, "playerPriorWeight": 0, "currentSeasonOnly": true }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -1.3606001796543978, "zonePPFit": 1.9295577488466336, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October23 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported unit only. Expected PP minutes retain measured current-season deployment; no guessed transfer.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476883", "goalieName": "Andrei Vasilevskiy", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8486171", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "window": "2021–22 through October21, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked attempts", "coverageNote": "Observed saved encounters only; missing is unavailable, not zero. Not independently established as complete career coverage." }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476883", "goalieName": "Andrei Vasilevskiy", "opponent": "COL", "games": 5, "availableGames": 13, "shotsAgainst": 157.0, "goalsAgainst": 12.0, "savePct": 0.9235668789808917, "gaa": 2.4254674077817078, "gsax": 7.298, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020668", "date": "20260106", "goalieTeam": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "shotsAgainst": 33.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.223 }, { "gameId": "2025020209", "date": "20251104", "goalieTeam": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "shotsAgainst": 33.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3420.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.409 }, { "gameId": "2024020334", "date": "20241125", "goalieTeam": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "shotsAgainst": 25.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.459 }, { "gameId": "2024020157", "date": "20241030", "goalieTeam": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "shotsAgainst": 35.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.364 }, { "gameId": "2023020842", "date": "20240215", "goalieTeam": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "shotsAgainst": 31.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3591.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.843 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "coverageNote": "Last five observed goalie/team regular-season appearances. Historical coverage is not independently established as career-complete." }, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 2.0508543512561768, "attemptProjection": 1.8676385607576595, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261021", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 28.0, "sog": 12.0, "seconds": 6349.0, "expectedMinutes": 10.581666666666667, "projectedAttempts": 2.8000000000000003, "onNet": 0.4706989584640482, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9399951775173531, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9886177218479464 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 9.0, "sog": 7.0, "seconds": 2235.0, "expectedMinutes": 3.477364986660899, "projectedAttempts": 0.8401687216093449, "onNet": 0.540199913081269, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9635919869864824, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0126481883452998 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.1910401069269394, "ppAdjusted": 0.5682063490799786, "other": 0.2 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.9592464560069183, "baseline": null, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": null, "modelWeight": 1, "baselineWeight": 0, "applied": false, "reason": "No saved prior-season player average; existing projection retained." }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.9592464560069183, "adjustedSOG": 1.831185613379778, "reductionPct": 6.536229387299097, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.1910401069269394, "afterPlayerForm": 1.1403624647689001, "afterRecentDefense": 1.1189514530290041, "afterRecentZones": 1.1910401069269394, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.1189514530290041, "adjusted": 1.071341115644874, "playerFactor": 0.9574509356458238, "defenseFactor": 0.9394742011803996, "oldChartFactor": 0.959181994610368, "newChartFactor": 0.959181994610368, "playerRecentAttempts": 9.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 49.55, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.6864278506559031, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.7156802561417446, "defenseRecentMinutes": 244.35, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.5682063490799786, "afterPlayerForm": 0.5598444977349041, "afterRecentDefense": 0.5682063490799786, "afterRecentZones": 0.5682063490799786, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.5682063490799786, "adjusted": 0.5598444977349041, "playerFactor": 0.9852837769964842, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.057886732465399, "newChartFactor": 1.057886732465399, "playerRecentAttempts": 4.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 18.183333333333334, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.9104796822487015, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.04528859527121, "defenseRecentMinutes": 23.966666666666665, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.831185613379778, "adjustedSOG": 1.831185613379778, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": null, "goalHistoryShots": null, "goalExpected": null, "goalExpectedAdjusted": null, "goalBaselineProbability": null, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": null }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12850346560233772, "modelSOG": 1.831185613379778, "historyGames": 10, "seasonGames": { "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 2.0, "historyShots": 21.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.09523809523809523, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.12273013686143613, "goalieFactor": 0.9911791106382869, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": 54.062698429768936, "btb": { "id": "8486171", "name": "T.J. Hughes", "score": 54.062698429768936, "components": { "Goal model": 69.56521739130434, "SOG model": 72.46376811594203, "Unit attack": 46.666666666666664, "Opposing lines": 32.64462809917356, "Opposing pairs": 41.47727272727273, "PP": 75.0, "Shot quality": 69.56521739130434, "Goalie": 11.971830985915492, "Team H2H": 50.0, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Team H2H unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": true, "weightedXGA60": 2.0997704529082193, "games": 6, "exactGames": 6, "shares": [ 0.26001637118883775, 0.2858104031442933, 0.2229862351875911, 0.2311869904792777 ], "score": 32.64462809917356 }, "pair": { "available": true, "weightedXGA60": 2.353270641533208, "games": 3, "exactGames": 2, "shares": [ 0.32912307329380575, 0.3049238599856305, 0.3413828848926681, 0.024570181827895672 ], "score": 41.47727272727273 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.5735984212866643, "unitPlayers": [ "Jaden Schwartz", "Fedor Svechkov", "T.J. Hughes" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 0, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 27 } }, { "id": "8482742", "name": "Zachary L'Heureux", "team": "COL", "opponent": "TBL", "position": "L", "currentGP": 3, "currentSOG": 2.0, "priorSOG": 1.28, "currentTOI": 9.083333333333334, "currentFiveTOI": 8.972222222222223, "ppShare": 0.0, "rate": 1.0077568973322455, "fifty": 1.2489269827412994, "inputs": { "Player": "Zachary L'Heureux", "Player_ID": "8482742", "Team": "COL", "Opponent": "TBL", "Position": "L", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 0.9981589392611179, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.207716507850351, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 3, "Prior_GP": 25, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 13.374613003095975, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.427899402931065, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 37.66816143497758, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 9.596755555555555, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 8.972222222222223, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.11045160770733084, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 813.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 3, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.795185185185185, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.15889077388742362, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.0, "Other_State_SOG": 0.0, "Environment_Proxy": 0.8844868901771036, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.28, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Out (reported)", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "PP assignment pending", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-23", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:35:35.615148+00:00", "priorGP": 25.0, "currentTotalSOG": 6.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.0, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.00 SOG/game in 3 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 3 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Listed unavailable on latest report; not projected to dress.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.641, "currentIXG": 0.21366666666666667, "priorTOI": 13.390666666666666, "priorPPTOI": 0.446, "deploymentChange": -4.307333333333332, "ppTOIChange": -0.446, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021168", "date": "20260329", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 14.4 }, { "gameId": "2024020369", "date": "20241129", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 11.516666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020141", "date": "20241028", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 8.516666666666667 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 3, "h2hSOG": 1.3333333333333333, "opponentDefense": { "team": "TBL", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 218.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 24.22222222222222, "mostAllowedRank": 29, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.310572168589594, "pkSogAllowed60": 47.9002079002079, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 36.333333333333336, "positionUnassignedSOG": 1.0, "positionTotals": { "L": 36.0, "R": 49.0, "D": 66.0, "C": 66.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.333333333333333, "L": 4.0, "R": 5.444444444444445, "D": 7.333333333333333 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 24.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.25, "positionSourceDifference": 1.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 24.22222222222222, "oppPosSogAllowed": 4.0, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8476883", "team": "TBL", "name": "Andrei Vasilevskiy", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-23T17:44:29.480Z", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-23", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.8975903614457832, "gaa": 2.4556616643929057, "gsax": 1.495000000000001, "goalsAllowed": 17.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 18.495, "shotsAgainst": 166.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9911791106382869, "factor": 0.9911791106382869, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter for October 23; Daily Faceoff confirmation.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.10118050994079741, "goalHistoryGoals": 9.0, "goalHistoryShots": 116.0, "goalExpected": 0.1387309695906223, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.13750723905682025, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.12953782224377186, "goalProbability": 0.12847195906668668, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.10658631770851801, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 3, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.371123447310123, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 13.374613003095975, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 8.972222222222223, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.795185185185185, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.0, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9588832837562793, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0032616490671127, "Position_Factor": 0.9867937882386387, "Input_GP": 3, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 813.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.427899402931065, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 37.66816143497758, "Prior_5v5_Min": 11.054, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.11045160770733084, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9006149977914444, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.062091503267974, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.8144554322046815, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0032616490671127, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 13.374613003095975, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 4.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five saved meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. Dated 2024–2026 regular-season appearances.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021168", "date": "20260329", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 14.4 }, { "gameId": "2024020369", "date": "20241129", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 11.516666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020141", "date": "20241028", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 8.516666666666667 } ], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "NHL.com projected lineup", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 40, "fitPct": -6.184818926510616, "index": 93.81518107348938, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 4.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.515281930842562, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 15.571428571428573, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.609652563126957, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 55.28571428571429, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.85621916135625, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 21 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 14.571428571428575, "opponentDeltaPct": -12.897287560223589, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.418201733515886, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 10.571428571428571, "opponentDeltaPct": -11.722552252061064, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 2 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 7, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -6.184818926510616, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October23 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported unit only. Expected PP minutes retain measured current-season deployment; no guessed transfer.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476883", "goalieName": "Andrei Vasilevskiy", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8482742", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "window": "2021–22 through October21, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked attempts", "coverageNote": "Observed saved encounters only; missing is unavailable, not zero. Not independently established as complete career coverage." }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476883", "goalieName": "Andrei Vasilevskiy", "opponent": "COL", "games": 5, "availableGames": 13, "shotsAgainst": 157.0, "goalsAgainst": 12.0, "savePct": 0.9235668789808917, "gaa": 2.4254674077817078, "gsax": 7.298, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020668", "date": "20260106", "goalieTeam": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "shotsAgainst": 33.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.223 }, { "gameId": "2025020209", "date": "20251104", "goalieTeam": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "shotsAgainst": 33.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3420.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.409 }, { "gameId": "2024020334", "date": "20241125", "goalieTeam": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "shotsAgainst": 25.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.459 }, { "gameId": "2024020157", "date": "20241030", "goalieTeam": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "shotsAgainst": 35.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.364 }, { "gameId": "2023020842", "date": "20240215", "goalieTeam": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "shotsAgainst": 31.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3591.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.843 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "coverageNote": "Last five observed goalie/team regular-season appearances. Historical coverage is not independently established as career-complete." }, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.7000000000000004, "attemptProjection": 1.1637448243670765, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261021", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 7.0, "sog": 6.0, "seconds": 1615.0, "expectedMinutes": 8.972222222222223, "projectedAttempts": 2.3333333333333335, "onNet": 0.5366942722239821, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9399951775173531, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9886177218479464 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 0.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.0, "projectedAttempts": 0, "onNet": 0.5605095541401274, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9635919869864824, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0126481883452998 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.4318724121835384, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.4318724121835384, "baseline": 1.28, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 25.0, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.371123447310123, "adjustedSOG": 1.371123447310123, "reductionPct": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.4318724121835384, "afterPlayerForm": 1.4318724121835384, "afterRecentDefense": 1.4318724121835384, "afterRecentZones": 1.4318724121835384, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.4318724121835384, "adjusted": 1.4318724121835384, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.8144554322046815, "newChartFactor": 0.8144554322046815, "playerRecentAttempts": 7.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 26.916666666666668, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0299737019606061, "defenseRecentMinutes": 244.35, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.0, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.04528859527121, "defenseRecentMinutes": 23.966666666666665, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.371123447310123, "adjustedSOG": 1.371123447310123, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.10526315789473684, "goalHistoryGoals": 4.0, "goalHistoryShots": 38.0, "goalExpected": 0.10607967340339426, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.10607967340339426, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.10064700929225373, "goalProbability": 0.10064700929225373, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12854990147212242, "modelSOG": 1.371123447310123, "historyGames": 90, "seasonGames": { "2024": 62, "2025": 25, "2026": 3 }, "historyGoals": 9.0, "historyShots": 116.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.07758620689655173, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.10118050994079741, "goalieFactor": 0.9911791106382869, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8481524", "name": "Bowen Byram", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "MTL", "position": "D", "currentGP": 6, "currentSOG": 0.8333333333333334, "priorSOG": 1.329268292682927, "currentTOI": 24.7, "currentFiveTOI": 19.905555555555555, "ppShare": 0.7592472420506164, "rate": 1.4173273414493077, "fifty": 1.2572133202194027, "inputs": { "Player": "Bowen Byram", "Player_ID": "8481524", "Team": "CHI", "Opponent": "MTL", "Position": "D", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.5441572653268292, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.3817593635627348, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 6, "Prior_GP": 82, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 0.5023723137036004, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.3362736012326795, "Current_PP_SOG60": 9.23076923076923, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 6.2366737739872065, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 19.39492547425474, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 19.905555555555555, "Current_PP_Share": 0.7592472420506164, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.3182222976124846, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1170.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1541.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 5, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.173148148148148, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 3.2432522518185567, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 3.9276984642007355, "Other_State_SOG": 0.15934959349593497, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9555676582468344, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.329268292682927, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Game-time decision", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "PP assignment pending", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-23", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:35:35.615148+00:00", "priorGP": 82.0, "currentTotalSOG": 5.0, "currentPPTOI": 3.25, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.83 SOG/game in 6 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 6 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Day-to-day or game-time decision in latest report; estimate conditional on dressing.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.403, "currentIXG": 0.06716666666666667, "priorTOI": 22.341056910569105, "priorPPTOI": 1.5252032520325203, "deploymentChange": 2.3589430894308947, "ppTOIChange": 1.7247967479674797, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020865", "date": "20260131", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 20.316666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020795", "date": "20260122", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 27.35 }, { "gameId": "2025020740", "date": "20260115", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 25.083333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2025020095", "date": "20251020", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 23.116666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020968", "date": "20250303", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 24.983333333333334 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 8, "h2hSOG": 1.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "MTL", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 237.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 26.333333333333332, "mostAllowedRank": 20, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.983070773571598, "pkSogAllowed60": 45.93967517401392, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 38.666666666666664, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 76.0, "D": 64.0, "R": 52.0, "L": 45.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 8.444444444444445, "L": 5.0, "R": 5.777777777777778, "D": 7.111111111111111 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 25.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 3, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27.333333333333332, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 26.333333333333332, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.111111111111111, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8484170", "team": "MTL", "name": "Jacob Fowler", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-23T17:12:10.576Z", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-23", "games": 4, "savePct": 0.9, "gaa": 2.163895011019836, "gsax": 2.1389999999999993, "goalsAllowed": 9.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 11.139, "shotsAgainst": 90.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9828963086689823, "factor": 0.9828963086689823, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter for October 23; Daily Faceoff confirmation.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.0771212402525065, "goalHistoryGoals": 18.0, "goalHistoryShots": 208.0, "goalExpected": 0.09049596371093059, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.08894814868091586, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.086521979045137, "goalProbability": 0.08510698924597034, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.14149897991666688, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 6, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.1734246417022502, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 0.5023723137036004, "Current_PP_SOG60": 9.23076923076923, "Current_5v5_Min": 19.905555555555555, "Current_PP_Share": 0.7592472420506164, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.173148148148148, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 3.9276984642007355, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.16666666666666666, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9711545151193198, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9819199317155711, "Position_Factor": 1.0001333630485962, "Input_GP": 6, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1170.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1541.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.3362736012326795, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 6.2366737739872065, "Prior_5v5_Min": 18.203455284552845, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.3182222976124846, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9848286195916839, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.34640522875817, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.879951826337836, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.9138822798142885, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.8666017424394722, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.8973592257913167, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 0.5023723137036004, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 9.23076923076923, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 4, "sogPerGame": 0.75 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 4, "sogPerGame": 1.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five saved meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. Dated 2024–2026 regular-season appearances.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020865", "date": "20260131", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 20.316666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020795", "date": "20260122", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 27.35 }, { "gameId": "2025020740", "date": "20260115", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 25.083333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2025020095", "date": "20251020", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 23.116666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020968", "date": "20250303", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 24.983333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020953", "date": "20250301", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 22.116666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020497", "date": "20241217", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 24.183333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020239", "date": "20241111", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "MTL", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 24.516666666666666 } ], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "NHL.com projected lineup", "isHome": true, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 153, "fitPct": -4.0016057887388, "index": 95.9983942112612, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 55.607843137254896, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.711511602468903, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 75 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 17.49019607843137, "opponentDeltaPct": -5.805766108288097, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 21 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 4.444444444444445, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.5231164238779513, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 17 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 18.274509803921568, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.4830868449991215, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 24 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 2.8758169934640523, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.49406869911976514, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 11 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 1.3071895424836601, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.365981626756792, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 5 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 23, "fitPct": -2.8705906728570483, "index": 97.12940932714295, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 65.8695652173913, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.8191755597579373, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 12 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 6.956521739130435, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.365371878175409, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 10.434782608695654, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.116979926964163, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 16.73913043478261, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.921488030021976, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 19.17564972004449, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 88.51112253515706, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -4.0016057887388, "zonePPFit": -2.8705906728570483, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October23 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported unit only. Expected PP minutes retain measured current-season deployment; no guessed transfer.", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8484170", "goalieName": "Jacob Fowler", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8481524", "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 1, "log": [ { "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1, "gameId": "2025020740", "date": "20260115" } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "window": "2021–22 through October21, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked attempts", "coverageNote": "Observed saved encounters only; missing is unavailable, not zero. Not independently established as complete career coverage." }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8484170", "goalieName": "Jacob Fowler", "opponent": "CHI", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "coverageNote": "Last five observed goalie/team regular-season appearances. Historical coverage is not independently established as career-complete." }, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.8533397447107195, "attemptProjection": 1.3273858115048178, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261021", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 15.0, "sog": 1.0, "seconds": 7166.0, "expectedMinutes": 19.905555555555555, "projectedAttempts": 2.5, "onNet": 0.3195296590685147, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.916154770019487, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0295873524263528 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 5.0, "sog": 3.0, "seconds": 1170.0, "expectedMinutes": 3.9276984642007355, "projectedAttempts": 1.007102170307881, "onNet": 0.44160381103612545, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9091960351585663, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0070808959552022 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.4489667894650434, "ppAdjusted": 0.47472932197605855, "other": 0.16666666666666666 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.0903627781077687, "baseline": 1.329268292682927, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 82.0, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.185924983937832, "adjustedSOG": 1.1734246417022502, "reductionPct": 1.0540584273783349, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.4489667894650434, "afterPlayerForm": 0.4489667894650434, "afterRecentDefense": 0.44237853815003514, "afterRecentZones": 0.4489667894650434, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.44237853815003514, "adjusted": 0.44237853815003514, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.985325749098595, "oldChartFactor": 0.879951826337836, "newChartFactor": 0.879951826337836, "playerRecentAttempts": 14.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 98.13333333333334, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.1359148550724638, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9310963862455485, "defenseRecentMinutes": 244.7, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.47472932197605855, "afterPlayerForm": 0.47472932197605855, "afterRecentDefense": 0.46155028951427673, "afterRecentZones": 0.47363224593302805, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.4604836695650976, "adjusted": 0.4604836695650976, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9722388488519644, "oldChartFactor": 0.9138822798142885, "newChartFactor": 0.91018428865051, "playerRecentAttempts": 5.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 16.383333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.190233977619532, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8240542632130013, "defenseRecentMinutes": 33.28333333333333, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.1734246417022502, "adjustedSOG": 1.1734246417022502, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.09649122807017543, "goalHistoryGoals": 11.0, "goalHistoryShots": 114.0, "goalExpected": 0.13675965575388055, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.13675965575388055, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.1278201756543989, "goalProbability": 0.1278201756543989, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05753341997772001, "modelSOG": 1.1734246417022502, "historyGames": 170, "seasonGames": { "2024": 82, "2025": 82, "2026": 6 }, "historyGoals": 18.0, "historyShots": 208.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.08653846153846154, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.0771212402525065, "goalieFactor": 0.9828963086689823, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8482929", "name": "Emil Lilleberg", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "position": "D", "currentGP": 4, "currentSOG": 0.5, "priorSOG": 0.86, "currentTOI": 12.954166666666667, "currentFiveTOI": 12.1375, "ppShare": 0.0, "rate": 0.732148294472993, "fifty": 0.5440714774812282, "inputs": { "Player": "Emil Lilleberg", "Player_ID": "8482929", "Team": "TBL", "Opponent": "COL", "Position": "D", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 0.618230006405477, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 0.393169520178031, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 4, "Prior_GP": 50, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 1.235839340885685, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.3864193209660485, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 13.067449999999997, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 12.1375, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.0070406034344407, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 957.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 1, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.612685185185185, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.009742826147042563, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.0, "Other_State_SOG": 0.025, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9914667421548949, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 0.86, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Not on projected lineup", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "PP assignment pending", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-23", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:35:35.615148+00:00", "priorGP": 50.0, "currentTotalSOG": 2.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.0, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.50 SOG/game in 4 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 4 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Not listed on latest projected chart; October 23 dressing status unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.095, "currentIXG": 0.02375, "priorTOI": 17.308, "priorPPTOI": 0.035666666666666666, "deploymentChange": -4.353833333333332, "ppTOIChange": -0.035666666666666666, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020209", "date": "20251104", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 8.516666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020334", "date": "20241125", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 15.916666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020157", "date": "20241030", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 13.083333333333334 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 3, "h2hSOG": 0.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "COL", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 273.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.3, "mostAllowedRank": 16, "fiveSogAllowed60": 27.02393375298751, "pkSogAllowed60": 47.51429828420589, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 40.2, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 100.0, "R": 60.0, "L": 45.0, "D": 68.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.0, "L": 4.5, "R": 6.0, "D": 6.8 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 29.0, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.8, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.3, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.8, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8478406", "team": "COL", "name": "Mackenzie Blackwood", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-23T16:26:32.640Z", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-23", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.8888888888888888, "gaa": 2.897734132893307, "gsax": -2.4450000000000003, "goalsAllowed": 20.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 17.555, "shotsAgainst": 180.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0252999843886221, "factor": 1.0252999843886221, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter for October 23; Daily Faceoff confirmation.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.05637618294857525, "goalHistoryGoals": 5.0, "goalHistoryShots": 91.0, "goalExpected": 0.03788446318299342, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.03884293951009448, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.037175823894161276, "goalProbability": 0.03809822595323468, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.09224020590734017, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 4, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 0.6719941152729433, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 1.235839340885685, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 12.1375, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.612685185185185, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.0, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.25, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0289555868427727, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9996701327073623, "Position_Factor": 0.9904286105353721, "Input_GP": 4, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 957.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.3864193209660485, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 15.237333333333334, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.0070406034344407, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9628113879003559, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.34640522875817, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.0321903329168196, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9938046070129736, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9996701327073623, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 1.7535314174378958, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 0.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five saved meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. Dated 2024–2026 regular-season appearances.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020209", "date": "20251104", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 8.516666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020334", "date": "20241125", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 15.916666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020157", "date": "20241030", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 13.083333333333334 } ], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "NHL.com projected lineup", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/tampa-bay-lightning/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T04:50:37.269727+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 70, "fitPct": 1.0730110972273224, "index": 101.07301109722732, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 68.57142857142857, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.604370751696635, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 50 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 2.2857142857142856, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.2025641924569896, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 4.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.26262818174886604, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 24.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.0950116912032684, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 1.1428571428571428, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.044692588641311204, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.6551158457307906, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 1.0730110972273224, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October23 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported unit only. Expected PP minutes retain measured current-season deployment; no guessed transfer.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478406", "goalieName": "Mackenzie Blackwood", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8482929", "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 1, "log": [ { "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1, "gameId": "2023021108", "date": "20240321" } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "window": "2021–22 through October21, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked attempts", "coverageNote": "Observed saved encounters only; missing is unavailable, not zero. Not independently established as complete career coverage." }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478406", "goalieName": "Mackenzie Blackwood", "opponent": "TBL", "games": 4, "availableGames": 4, "shotsAgainst": 99.0, "goalsAgainst": 15.0, "savePct": 0.8484848484848485, "gaa": 4.800426704595964, "gsax": -3.8269999999999995, "log": [ { "gameId": "2024020413", "date": "20241205", "goalieTeam": "SJS", "opponent": "TBL", "shotsAgainst": 23.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 2400.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.907 }, { "gameId": "2023021108", "date": "20240321", "goalieTeam": "SJS", "opponent": "TBL", "shotsAgainst": 21.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.592 }, { "gameId": "2023020106", "date": "20231026", "goalieTeam": "SJS", "opponent": "TBL", "shotsAgainst": 21.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 1649.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.962 }, { "gameId": "2021020264", "date": "20211120", "goalieTeam": "NJD", "opponent": "TBL", "shotsAgainst": 34.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.712 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "coverageNote": "Last five observed goalie/team regular-season appearances. Historical coverage is not independently established as career-complete." }, "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.4984511517532434, "attemptProjection": 0.6405764512159513, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261021", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 4.0, "sog": 1.0, "seconds": 2913.0, "expectedMinutes": 12.1375, "projectedAttempts": 1.0, "onNet": 0.38461903406395287, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0290266956001277, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9868443082842028 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 0.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.0, "projectedAttempts": 0, "onNet": 0.425764192139738, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9649306914974484, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9896116972997503 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.3195138014845973, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.25 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.5695138014845973, "baseline": 0.86, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 50.0, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.6857082808907584, "adjustedSOG": 0.6857082808907584, "reductionPct": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.3195138014845973, "afterPlayerForm": 0.3195138014845973, "afterRecentDefense": 0.3195138014845973, "afterRecentZones": 0.3195138014845973, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.3195138014845973, "adjusted": 0.3195138014845973, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.0321903329168196, "newChartFactor": 1.0321903329168196, "playerRecentAttempts": 4.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 48.55, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0338983050847457, "defenseRecentMinutes": 251.61666666666667, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.0, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.594204503506829, "defenseRecentMinutes": 15.05, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.6857082808907584, "adjustedSOG": 0.6719941152729433, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.08888888888888889, "goalHistoryGoals": 4.0, "goalHistoryShots": 45.0, "goalExpected": 0.06507984839759938, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.06507984839759938, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.06300735697080756, "goalProbability": 0.06300735697080756, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05767850943177873, "modelSOG": 0.6719941152729433, "historyGames": 130, "seasonGames": { "2024": 76, "2025": 50, "2026": 4 }, "historyGoals": 5.0, "historyShots": 91.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.054945054945054944, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.05637618294857525, "goalieFactor": 1.0252999843886221, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8481186", "name": "Logan O'Connor", "team": "COL", "opponent": "TBL", "position": "R", "currentGP": 0, "currentSOG": null, "priorSOG": 1.0, "currentTOI": null, "currentFiveTOI": null, "ppShare": null, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 4", "ppUnit": "PP assignment pending", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-23", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:35:35.615148+00:00", "priorGP": 13.0, "currentTotalSOG": null, "currentPPTOI": null, "volumeNote": "No current-season appearances in the complete supplied snapshot.", "sampleNote": "Projection unavailable until current-season inputs are available.", "availability": "Reported October 23 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": null, "currentIXG": null, "priorTOI": 11.444871794871794, "priorPPTOI": 0.001282051282051282, "deploymentChange": null, "ppTOIChange": null, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2024020334", "date": "20241125", "team": "COL", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 13.0 }, { "gameId": "2024020157", "date": "20241030", "team": "COL", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 17.566666666666666 } ], "h2hGames": 2, "h2hAvailableGames": 2, "h2hSOG": 1.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "TBL", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 218.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 24.22222222222222, "mostAllowedRank": 29, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.310572168589594, "pkSogAllowed60": 47.9002079002079, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 36.333333333333336, "positionUnassignedSOG": 1.0, "positionTotals": { "L": 36.0, "R": 49.0, "D": 66.0, "C": 66.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.333333333333333, "L": 4.0, "R": 5.444444444444445, "D": 7.333333333333333 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 24.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.25, "positionSourceDifference": 1.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 24.22222222222222, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.444444444444445, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8476883", "team": "TBL", "name": "Andrei Vasilevskiy", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-23T17:44:29.480Z", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-23", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.8975903614457832, "gaa": 2.4556616643929057, "gsax": 1.495000000000001, "goalsAllowed": 17.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 18.495, "shotsAgainst": 166.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9911791106382869, "factor": 0.9911791106382869, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter for October 23; Daily Faceoff confirmation.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": null, "goalHistoryShots": null, "goalExpected": null, "goalExpectedAdjusted": null, "goalBaselineProbability": null, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": null, "recentlyDressed": false, "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 0, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": null, "trialInputs": null, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five saved meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. Dated 2024–2026 regular-season appearances.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2024020334", "date": "20241125", "team": "COL", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 13.0 }, { "gameId": "2024020157", "date": "20241030", "team": "COL", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 17.566666666666666 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Taylor Makar", "Parker Kelly", "Logan O'Connor" ], "lineupSource": "NHL.com projected lineup", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "rosterPosition": "R", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 15, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "reason": "No current-season shooting inputs in the available October 21 snapshot. Forecast unavailable; no estimate imputed.", "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476883", "goalieName": "Andrei Vasilevskiy", "opponent": "COL", "games": 5, "availableGames": 13, "shotsAgainst": 157.0, "goalsAgainst": 12.0, "savePct": 0.9235668789808917, "gaa": 2.4254674077817078, "gsax": 7.298, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020668", "date": "20260106", "goalieTeam": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "shotsAgainst": 33.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.223 }, { "gameId": "2025020209", "date": "20251104", "goalieTeam": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "shotsAgainst": 33.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3420.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.409 }, { "gameId": "2024020334", "date": "20241125", "goalieTeam": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "shotsAgainst": 25.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.459 }, { "gameId": "2024020157", "date": "20241030", "goalieTeam": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "shotsAgainst": 35.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.364 }, { "gameId": "2023020842", "date": "20240215", "goalieTeam": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "shotsAgainst": 31.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3591.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.843 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "coverageNote": "Last five observed goalie/team regular-season appearances. Historical coverage is not independently established as career-complete." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476883", "goalieName": "Andrei Vasilevskiy", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8481186", "goals": 0, "sog": 4, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 4, "recordedAttempts": 5, "log": [ { "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2, "gameId": "2024020334", "date": "20241125" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1, "gameId": "2022020862", "date": "20230214" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1, "gameId": "2021020477", "date": "20220210" }, { "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 1, "gameId": "2021020068", "date": "20211023" } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "window": "2021–22 through October21, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked attempts", "coverageNote": "Observed saved encounters only; missing is unavailable, not zero. Not independently established as complete career coverage." }, "projectedPosition": "R", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October23 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported unit only. Expected PP minutes retain measured current-season deployment; no guessed transfer.", "availabilitySourceUrl": "https://sports.yahoo.com/articles/avalanche-practice-bednar-wants-full-221442491.html", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": null, "adjustedSOG": null, "reductionPct": null, "reason": "Model SOG unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": null, "adjustedSOG": null, "reductionPct": null, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": null, "goalHistoryShots": null, "goalExpected": null, "goalExpectedAdjusted": null, "goalBaselineProbability": null, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": null }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12852494093522934, "modelSOG": null, "historyGames": 93, "seasonGames": { "2024": 80, "2025": 13 }, "historyGoals": 10.0, "historyShots": 102.0, "reason": "Model SOG or dated shooting history/position baseline unavailable", "rawShootingPct": null, "adjustedShootingPct": null, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Unavailable" }, "btbScore": 45.19639600689537, "btb": { "id": "8481186", "name": "Logan O'Connor", "score": 45.19639600689537, "components": { "Goal model": 50, "SOG model": 50, "Unit attack": 53.333333333333336, "Opposing lines": 37.603305785123965, "Opposing pairs": 35.714285714285715, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 50, "Goalie": 11.971830985915492, "Team H2H": 50.0, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Player model inputs incomplete; missing values scored neutral", "Team H2H unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral", "Individual xG unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": true, "weightedXGA60": 2.1028813849047854, "games": 6, "exactGames": 0, "shares": [ 0.25080759360550986, 0.272460299722889, 0.2442614175386674, 0.23247068913293373 ], "score": 37.603305785123965 }, "pair": { "available": true, "weightedXGA60": 2.277851764587307, "games": 2, "exactGames": 0, "shares": [ 0.4143536856727569, 0.2640501452433857, 0.22803988276018178, 0.09355628632367562 ], "score": 35.714285714285715 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.727062095444662, "unitPlayers": [ "Taylor Makar", "Parker Kelly", "Logan O'Connor" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 2, "goalieH2HShots": 4, "modelAvailable": false, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 44 }, "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:35:35.615148+00:00" }, { "id": "8482953", "name": "Taylor Makar", "team": "COL", "opponent": "TBL", "position": "L", "currentGP": 0, "currentSOG": null, "priorSOG": 0.5833333333333334, "currentTOI": null, "currentFiveTOI": null, "ppShare": null, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 4", "ppUnit": "PP assignment pending", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-23", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:35:35.615148+00:00", "priorGP": 12.0, "currentTotalSOG": null, "currentPPTOI": null, "volumeNote": "No current-season appearances in the complete supplied snapshot.", "sampleNote": "Projection unavailable until current-season inputs are available.", "availability": "Reported October 23 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": null, "currentIXG": null, "priorTOI": 6.209722222222222, "priorPPTOI": 0.0, "deploymentChange": null, "ppTOIChange": null, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020668", "date": "20260106", "team": "COL", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 5.483333333333333 } ], "h2hGames": 1, "h2hAvailableGames": 1, "h2hSOG": 1.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "TBL", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 218.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 24.22222222222222, "mostAllowedRank": 29, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.310572168589594, "pkSogAllowed60": 47.9002079002079, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 36.333333333333336, "positionUnassignedSOG": 1.0, "positionTotals": { "L": 36.0, "R": 49.0, "D": 66.0, "C": 66.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.333333333333333, "L": 4.0, "R": 5.444444444444445, "D": 7.333333333333333 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 24.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.25, "positionSourceDifference": 1.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 24.22222222222222, "oppPosSogAllowed": 4.0, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8476883", "team": "TBL", "name": "Andrei Vasilevskiy", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-23T17:44:29.480Z", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-23", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.8975903614457832, "gaa": 2.4556616643929057, "gsax": 1.495000000000001, "goalsAllowed": 17.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 18.495, "shotsAgainst": 166.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9911791106382869, "factor": 0.9911791106382869, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter for October 23; Daily Faceoff confirmation.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": null, "goalHistoryShots": null, "goalExpected": null, "goalExpectedAdjusted": null, "goalBaselineProbability": null, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": null, "recentlyDressed": false, "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 0, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": null, "trialInputs": null, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 1.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five saved meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. Dated 2024–2026 regular-season appearances.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020668", "date": "20260106", "team": "COL", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "toi": 5.483333333333333 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Taylor Makar", "Parker Kelly", "Logan O'Connor" ], "lineupSource": "NHL.com projected lineup", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": null, "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "zoneFit": null, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October23 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported unit only. Expected PP minutes retain measured current-season deployment; no guessed transfer.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476883", "goalieName": "Andrei Vasilevskiy", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8482953", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "window": "2021–22 through October21, 2026 regular-season recorded unblocked attempts", "coverageNote": "Observed saved encounters only; missing is unavailable, not zero. Not independently established as complete career coverage." }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476883", "goalieName": "Andrei Vasilevskiy", "opponent": "COL", "games": 5, "availableGames": 13, "shotsAgainst": 157.0, "goalsAgainst": 12.0, "savePct": 0.9235668789808917, "gaa": 2.4254674077817078, "gsax": 7.298, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020668", "date": "20260106", "goalieTeam": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "shotsAgainst": 33.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.223 }, { "gameId": "2025020209", "date": "20251104", "goalieTeam": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "shotsAgainst": 33.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3420.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.409 }, { "gameId": "2024020334", "date": "20241125", "goalieTeam": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "shotsAgainst": 25.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.459 }, { "gameId": "2024020157", "date": "20241030", "goalieTeam": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "shotsAgainst": 35.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.364 }, { "gameId": "2023020842", "date": "20240215", "goalieTeam": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "shotsAgainst": 31.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3591.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.843 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "coverageNote": "Last five observed goalie/team regular-season appearances. Historical coverage is not independently established as career-complete." }, "sogBlend": null, "sogShrinkage": null, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": null, "adjustedSOG": null, "reductionPct": null, "reason": "Model SOG unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": null, "adjustedSOG": null, "reductionPct": null, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12850525565651166, "modelSOG": null, "historyGames": 12, "seasonGames": { "2025": 12 }, "historyGoals": 0.0, "historyShots": 7.0, "reason": "Model SOG or dated shooting history/position baseline unavailable", "rawShootingPct": null, "adjustedShootingPct": null, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Unavailable" }, "btbScore": 45.19639600689537, "btb": { "id": "8482953", "name": "Taylor Makar", "score": 45.19639600689537, "components": { "Goal model": 50, "SOG model": 50, "Unit attack": 53.333333333333336, "Opposing lines": 37.603305785123965, "Opposing pairs": 35.714285714285715, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 50, "Goalie": 11.971830985915492, "Team H2H": 50.0, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Player model inputs incomplete; missing values scored neutral", "Team H2H unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral", "Individual xG unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": true, "weightedXGA60": 2.1028813849047854, "games": 6, "exactGames": 0, "shares": [ 0.25080759360550986, 0.272460299722889, 0.2442614175386674, 0.23247068913293373 ], "score": 37.603305785123965 }, "pair": { "available": true, "weightedXGA60": 2.277851764587307, "games": 2, "exactGames": 0, "shares": [ 0.4143536856727569, 0.2640501452433857, 0.22803988276018178, 0.09355628632367562 ], "score": 35.714285714285715 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.727062095444662, "unitPlayers": [ "Taylor Makar", "Parker Kelly", "Logan O'Connor" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 1, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": false, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 45 }, "rosterPosition": "L", "reason": "No current-season shooting inputs in the available October 21 snapshot. Forecast unavailable; no estimate imputed.", "performanceAdjustment": null, "projectedPosition": "L", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:35:35.615148+00:00", "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": null, "goalHistoryShots": null, "goalExpected": null, "goalExpectedAdjusted": null, "goalBaselineProbability": null, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": null } } ], "games": [ { "away": "MTL", "home": "CHI", "awayName": "Montreal Canadiens", "homeName": "Chicago Blackhawks", "date": "2026-10-24T00:00Z", "eventId": "401892564" }, { "away": "TBL", "home": "COL", "awayName": "Tampa Bay Lightning", "homeName": "Colorado Avalanche", "date": "2026-10-24T01:00Z", "eventId": "401892565" } ], "teamStats": [ { "id": "MTL", "name": "MTL", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "CHI", "games": 9.0, "sogFor": 29.666666666666668, "sogAllowed": 26.333333333333332, "xgFor": 3.42, "xgAllowed": 3.475888888888889, "fiveAllowed": 23.983070773571598, "pkAllowed": 45.93967517401392, "ppMinutes": 4.209259259259259, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, { "id": "CHI", "name": "CHI", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "MTL", "games": 9.0, "sogFor": 21.444444444444443, "sogAllowed": 30.555555555555557, "xgFor": 2.655111111111111, "xgAllowed": 3.5094444444444446, "fiveAllowed": 29.037678778147054, "pkAllowed": 51.98019801980198, "ppMinutes": 3.961111111111111, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, { "id": "TBL", "name": "TBL", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "games": 9.0, "sogFor": 29.77777777777778, "sogAllowed": 24.22222222222222, "xgFor": 3.7775555555555553, "xgAllowed": 2.808888888888889, "fiveAllowed": 23.310572168589594, "pkAllowed": 47.9002079002079, "ppMinutes": 5.437037037037037, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, { "id": "COL", "name": "COL", "team": "COL", "opponent": "TBL", "games": 10.0, "sogFor": 30.6, "sogAllowed": 27.3, "xgFor": 3.4001999999999994, "xgAllowed": 2.6853, "fiveAllowed": 27.02393375298751, "pkAllowed": 47.51429828420589, "ppMinutes": 5.136666666666667, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" } ], "goalieStats": [ { "id": "8484170", "name": "Jacob Fowler", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "CHI", "games": 4, "savePct": 0.9, "gaa": 2.163895011019836, "gsax": 2.1389999999999993, "gsax60": 0.5142857142857141, "shotsAgainst": 90.0, "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "listedCandidate": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, { "id": "8478406", "name": "Mackenzie Blackwood", "team": "COL", "opponent": "TBL", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.8888888888888888, "gaa": 2.897734132893307, "gsax": -2.4450000000000003, "gsax60": -0.35424799774620686, "shotsAgainst": 180.0, "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "listedCandidate": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, { "id": "8476883", "name": "Andrei Vasilevskiy", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.8975903614457832, "gaa": 2.4556616643929057, "gsax": 1.495000000000001, "gsax60": 0.2159537757804351, "shotsAgainst": 166.0, "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "listedCandidate": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, { "id": "8481519", "name": "Spencer Knight", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "MTL", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.8878923766816144, "gaa": 3.589375448671931, "gsax": -1.0060000000000002, "gsax60": -0.14443646805455854, "shotsAgainst": 223.0, "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "listedCandidate": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, { "id": "8483710", "name": "Dennis Hildeby", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "games": 2, "savePct": 0.92, "gaa": 2.0089285714285716, "gsax": 0.8719999999999999, "gsax60": 0.43794642857142857, "shotsAgainst": 50.0, "starterStatus": "Not listed candidate", "listedCandidate": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, { "id": "8482821", "name": "Arvid Soderblom", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "MTL", "games": 2, "savePct": 0.8200000000000001, "gaa": 4.582095884599067, "gsax": -2.8499999999999996, "gsax60": -1.4509970301230375, "shotsAgainst": 50.0, "starterStatus": "Not listed candidate", "listedCandidate": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, { "id": "8482487", "name": "Jakub Dobes", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "CHI", "games": 5, "savePct": 0.8472222222222222, "gaa": 4.472302219210571, "gsax": -6.196, "gsax60": -1.2595629341013044, "shotsAgainst": 144.0, "starterStatus": "Not listed candidate", "listedCandidate": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, { "id": "8475809", "name": "Scott Wedgewood", "team": "COL", "opponent": "TBL", "games": 3, "savePct": 0.9120879120879121, "gaa": 2.6460859977949283, "gsax": -0.20099999999999962, "gsax60": -0.06648291069459746, "shotsAgainst": 91.0, "starterStatus": "Not listed candidate", "listedCandidate": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" } ], "goalies": { "MTL": { "id": "8484170", "team": "MTL", "name": "Jacob Fowler", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-23T17:12:10.576Z", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-23", "games": 4, "savePct": 0.9, "gaa": 2.163895011019836, "gsax": 2.1389999999999993, "goalsAllowed": 9.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 11.139, "shotsAgainst": 90.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9828963086689823, "factor": 0.9828963086689823, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter for October 23; Daily Faceoff confirmation.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "CHI": { "id": "8481519", "team": "CHI", "name": "Spencer Knight", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-23T17:38:57.370Z", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-23", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.8878923766816144, "gaa": 3.589375448671931, "gsax": -1.0060000000000002, "goalsAllowed": 25.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 23.994, "shotsAgainst": 223.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0134476231189056, "factor": 1.0134476231189056, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter for October 23; Daily Faceoff confirmation.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "TBL": { "id": "8476883", "team": "TBL", "name": "Andrei Vasilevskiy", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-23T17:44:29.480Z", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-23", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.8975903614457832, "gaa": 2.4556616643929057, "gsax": 1.495000000000001, "goalsAllowed": 17.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 18.495, "shotsAgainst": 166.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9911791106382869, "factor": 0.9911791106382869, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter for October 23; Daily Faceoff confirmation.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "COL": { "id": "8478406", "team": "COL", "name": "Mackenzie Blackwood", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-23T16:26:32.640Z", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-23", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.8888888888888888, "gaa": 2.897734132893307, "gsax": -2.4450000000000003, "goalsAllowed": 20.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 17.555, "shotsAgainst": 180.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0252999843886221, "factor": 1.0252999843886221, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter for October 23; Daily Faceoff confirmation.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" } }, "positionDefenses": [ { "team": "NYI", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 228.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 25.333333333333332, "mostAllowedRank": 26, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.15428393233024, "pkSogAllowed60": 39.89501312335958, 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39.81818181818182, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 106.0, "D": 82.0, "R": 57.0, "L": 38.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.636363636363637, "L": 3.4545454545454546, "R": 5.181818181818182, "D": 7.454545454545454 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 27.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.4, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, { "team": "BOS", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 280.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 28.0, "mostAllowedRank": 11, "fiveSogAllowed60": 26.539776154413243, "pkSogAllowed60": 48.89206576125804, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 42.4, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 68.0, "R": 50.0, "L": 68.0, "C": 94.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.4, "L": 6.8, "R": 5.0, "D": 6.8 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 26.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 30.0, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, { "team": "BUF", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 257.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 25.7, "mostAllowedRank": 24, "fiveSogAllowed60": 21.645723550871505, "pkSogAllowed60": 62.21198156682028, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 40.1, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 61.0, "L": 55.0, "D": 65.0, "C": 76.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.6, "L": 5.5, "R": 6.1, "D": 6.5 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 30.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.25, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, { "team": "FLA", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 246.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 24.6, "mostAllowedRank": 28, "fiveSogAllowed60": 21.676332606848657, "pkSogAllowed60": 48.946947480671824, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 37.6, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 76.0, "C": 78.0, "L": 50.0, "R": 42.0 }, 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Equal offense/defense and opportunity averages; no player projection changes. Other includes remaining recorded situations. Not calibrated; no score-state or lineup adjustment." }, "TBL": { "team": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "teamGames": 9.0, "opponentGames": 10.0, "projectedSOG": 28.54879506212488, "components": [ { "situation": "5v5", "teamSituation": "5on5", "opponentSituation": "5on5", "offenseSOG60": 28.961619967035553, "opponentAllowedSOG60": 27.02393375298751, "teamMinutes": 47.18888888888889, "opponentMinutes": 49.51166666666667, "expectedMinutes": 48.35027777777778, "matchupSOG60": 27.99277686001153, "shots": 22.557642282548457 }, { "situation": "Power play", "teamSituation": "5on4", "opponentSituation": "4on5", "offenseSOG60": 47.82016348773842, "opponentAllowedSOG60": 47.51429828420589, "teamMinutes": 5.437037037037037, "opponentMinutes": 3.788333333333333, "expectedMinutes": 4.612685185185185, "matchupSOG60": 47.66723088597216, "shots": 3.6645654954420914 }, { "situation": "Shorthanded", "teamSituation": "4on5", "opponentSituation": "5on4", "offenseSOG60": 10.478170478170478, "opponentAllowedSOG60": 12.848799480856586, "teamMinutes": 4.453703703703704, "opponentMinutes": 5.136666666666667, "expectedMinutes": 4.795185185185185, "matchupSOG60": 11.663484979513532, "shots": 0.932142839689887 }, { "situation": "Other situations", "teamSOGPerGame": 1.8888888888888888, "opponentAllowedPerGame": 0.9, "shots": 1.3944444444444444 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "model": "team-matchup-current-equal-v1", "source": "Saved MoneyPuck team season totals", "note": "Experimental team-only estimate. Equal offense/defense and opportunity averages; no player projection changes. Other includes remaining recorded situations. Not calibrated; no score-state or lineup adjustment." }, "COL": { "team": "COL", "opponent": "TBL", "teamGames": 10.0, "opponentGames": 9.0, "projectedSOG": 27.323689693506246, "components": [ { "situation": "5v5", "teamSituation": "5on5", "opponentSituation": "5on5", "offenseSOG60": 28.962870703874508, "opponentAllowedSOG60": 23.310572168589594, "teamMinutes": 49.51166666666667, "opponentMinutes": 47.18888888888889, "expectedMinutes": 48.35027777777778, "matchupSOG60": 26.13672143623205, "shots": 21.061962360703646 }, { "situation": "Power play", "teamSituation": "5on4", "opponentSituation": "4on5", "offenseSOG60": 56.06748864373783, "opponentAllowedSOG60": 47.9002079002079, "teamMinutes": 5.136666666666667, "opponentMinutes": 4.453703703703704, "expectedMinutes": 4.795185185185185, "matchupSOG60": 51.98384827197287, "shots": 4.15453631837798 }, { "situation": "Shorthanded", "teamSituation": "4on5", "opponentSituation": "5on4", "offenseSOG60": 4.75142982842059, "opponentAllowedSOG60": 6.130790190735695, "teamMinutes": 3.788333333333333, "opponentMinutes": 5.437037037037037, "expectedMinutes": 4.612685185185185, "matchupSOG60": 5.441110009578143, "shots": 0.418302125535732 }, { "situation": "Other situations", "teamSOGPerGame": 1.6, "opponentAllowedPerGame": 1.7777777777777777, "shots": 1.6888888888888889 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "model": "team-matchup-current-equal-v1", "source": "Saved MoneyPuck team season totals", "note": "Experimental team-only estimate. Equal offense/defense and opportunity averages; no player projection changes. Other includes remaining recorded situations. Not calibrated; no score-state or lineup adjustment." } }, "goalieSaveModel": { "version": "current-league-500shot-v1", "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "leagueSavePct": 0.8919995173162785, "leagueShots": 8287.0, "leagueGoals": 895.0, "leagueGoalies": 65, "priorShots": 500, "source": "Saved MoneyPuck current-season all-situation goalie totals", "formula": "(current saves + 500 × current league save rate) / (current shots faced + 500)", "note": "Experimental 500-shot prior, not fitted. Current season only; no prior-season goalie data. Full-game-start scenario; no pull/injury, empty-net, opponent shot-quality or shared-goalie adjustment. Does not alter player SOG or goal estimates." }, "goalieSaveProjections": { "8484170:MTL": { "id": "8484170", "name": "Jacob Fowler", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "CHI", "projectedShotsFaced": 23.80235672714637, "rawSavePct": 0.9, "adjustedSavePct": 0.8932199299290494, "currentShots": 90.0, "currentGoals": 9.0, "currentWeight": 0.15254237288135594, "projectedSaves": 21.260739407967918, "projectedGoalsAllowed": 2.5416173191784517, "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "listedCandidate": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "basis": "Full-game start; opponent team SOG used as shots-faced proxy", "fallback": false }, "8478406:COL": { "id": "8478406", "name": "Mackenzie Blackwood", "team": "COL", "opponent": "TBL", "projectedShotsFaced": 28.54879506212488, "rawSavePct": 0.8888888888888888, "adjustedSavePct": 0.8911761156737341, "currentShots": 180.0, "currentGoals": 20.0, "currentWeight": 0.2647058823529412, "projectedSaves": 25.44200429062993, "projectedGoalsAllowed": 3.106790771494949, "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "listedCandidate": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "basis": "Full-game start; opponent team SOG used as shots-faced proxy", "fallback": false }, "8476883:TBL": { "id": "8476883", "name": "Andrei Vasilevskiy", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "projectedShotsFaced": 27.323689693506246, "rawSavePct": 0.8975903614457832, "adjustedSavePct": 0.893393031018227, "currentShots": 166.0, "currentGoals": 17.0, "currentWeight": 0.24924924924924924, "projectedSaves": 24.410793953883033, "projectedGoalsAllowed": 2.9128957396232114, "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "listedCandidate": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "basis": "Full-game start; opponent team SOG used as shots-faced proxy", "fallback": false }, "8481519:CHI": { "id": "8481519", "name": "Spencer Knight", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "MTL", "projectedShotsFaced": 30.14167280268219, "rawSavePct": 0.8878923766816144, "adjustedSavePct": 0.8907327229019906, "currentShots": 223.0, "currentGoals": 25.0, "currentWeight": 0.3084370677731674, "projectedSaves": 26.84817428835398, "projectedGoalsAllowed": 3.2934985143282094, "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "listedCandidate": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "basis": "Full-game start; opponent team SOG used as shots-faced proxy", "fallback": false }, "8483710:TBL": { "id": "8483710", "name": "Dennis Hildeby", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "COL", "projectedShotsFaced": 27.323689693506246, "rawSavePct": 0.92, "adjustedSavePct": 0.8945450157420713, "currentShots": 50.0, "currentGoals": 4.0, "currentWeight": 0.09090909090909091, "projectedSaves": 24.442270427009017, "projectedGoalsAllowed": 2.8814192664972285, "starterStatus": "Not listed candidate", "listedCandidate": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "basis": "Full-game start; opponent team SOG used as shots-faced proxy", "fallback": false }, "8482821:CHI": { "id": "8482821", "name": "Arvid Soderblom", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "MTL", "projectedShotsFaced": 30.14167280268219, "rawSavePct": 0.8200000000000001, "adjustedSavePct": 0.8854541066511622, "currentShots": 50.0, "currentGoals": 9.0, "currentWeight": 0.09090909090909091, "projectedSaves": 26.689067964470592, "projectedGoalsAllowed": 3.4526048382115992, "starterStatus": "Not listed candidate", "listedCandidate": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "basis": "Full-game start; opponent team SOG used as shots-faced proxy", "fallback": false }, "8482487:MTL": { "id": "8482487", "name": "Jakub Dobes", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "CHI", "projectedShotsFaced": 23.80235672714637, "rawSavePct": 0.8472222222222222, "adjustedSavePct": 0.8819872028853093, "currentShots": 144.0, "currentGoals": 22.0, "currentWeight": 0.2236024844720497, "projectedSaves": 20.993374031854152, "projectedGoalsAllowed": 2.8089826952922183, "starterStatus": "Not listed candidate", "listedCandidate": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "basis": "Full-game start; opponent team SOG used as shots-faced proxy", "fallback": false }, "8475809:COL": { "id": "8475809", "name": "Scott Wedgewood", "team": "COL", "opponent": "TBL", "projectedShotsFaced": 28.54879506212488, "rawSavePct": 0.9120879120879121, "adjustedSavePct": 0.8950926542438903, "currentShots": 91.0, "currentGoals": 8.0, "currentWeight": 0.15397631133671744, "projectedSaves": 25.55381674762223, "projectedGoalsAllowed": 2.9949783145026525, "starterStatus": "Not listed candidate", "listedCandidate": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "basis": "Full-game start; opponent team SOG used as shots-faced proxy", "fallback": false } } }