{ "meta": { "date": "2026-10-24", "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "status": "October 24 active provisional slate; 20 starters confirmed; stats through October 21; PP-unit roles pending.", "total": 532, "estimated": 532, "zoneFitNote": "Displayed location fit contributes only within the existing chart branch; ±15% combined cap per strength. Missing chart samples neutral.", "defaultSkaters": 431, "teamStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "goalieStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "shotChartStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "goaliesCheckedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "builtAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "confirmedGoalies": 20, "teamDataRequirements": {}, "newsReview": { "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "confirmedGoalies": [ "Lukas Dostal (ANA)", "Joseph Woll (PHI)", "Anton Forsberg (LAK)", "Jake Allen (NJD)", "Pyotr Kochetkov (CAR)", "Joel Hofer (STL)", "Juuse Saros (NSH)", "Dylan Garand (NYR)", "Jonas Johansson (OTT)", "Alex Nedeljkovic (SJS)", "Jeremy Swayman (BOS)", "Carter Hart (VGK)", "Cam Talbot (CBJ)", "Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen (BUF)", "Charlie Lindgren (WSH)", "Anthony Stolarz (TOR)", "Tristan Jarry (EDM)", "Jesper Wallstedt (MIN)", "John Gibson (DET)", "Devin Cooley (CGY)" ], "likelyGoalies": [ "Arturs Silovs (PIT)", "Karel Vejmelka (UTA)", "Joey Daccord (SEA)" ], "pendingGoalies": [ "Dennis Hildeby (TBL)" ], "goalieSource": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "lineupsSource": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "changes": [ "Anton Forsberg (LAK) and Jesper Wallstedt (MIN) moved to Confirmed; Karel Vejmelka (UTA) moved to Likely.", "Gibson replaces Postava as the listed Detroit starter; matching current-season goalie stats were available.", "NHL.com projected lines and defensive pairs are available for all 12 games; current-slate PP-unit metrics remain unverified.", "No newer model-input statistics were verified beyond October 21; per-player recent-game charts were separately refreshed from official NHL GameCenter through October 23 and are informational only." ] }, "statisticalCoverageNote": "Checked October 24 at 8:03 PM ET. Daily Faceoff confirms 20 of 24 starters, lists 3 as likely, and leaves 1 unconfirmed. New confirmations since the prior refresh include Anthony Stolarz (TOR); Joey Daccord (SEA) is now likely. Confirmed-only goalie adjustments apply where matching stats exist (19 starts); Ottawa's confirmed Jonas Johansson has no matching goalie statistics in this snapshot, so the factor remains neutral. NHL.com published projected forward lines and defensive pairs for all 12 October 24 games. This snapshot contains no loaded line or pair rows, and current-slate PP roles and metrics are unverified; line, pair and PP rankings and adjustments remain unavailable. Missing BTB unit, exposure and PP components use a neutral 50. These are projected reports, not confirmed dressing lists. Projection inputs for player, team, goalie and shot-location metrics remain through October 21. Per-player recent-game histories were separately refreshed from official NHL GameCenter boxscores and play-by-play through October 23; those histories are informational and do not change projections.", "lineupsStatus": "Checked October 24 at 8:03 PM ET. Daily Faceoff confirms 20 of 24 starters, lists 3 as likely, and leaves 1 unconfirmed. New confirmations since the prior refresh include Anthony Stolarz (TOR); Joey Daccord (SEA) is now likely. Confirmed-only goalie adjustments apply where matching stats exist (19 starts); Ottawa's confirmed Jonas Johansson has no matching goalie statistics in this snapshot, so the factor remains neutral. NHL.com published projected forward lines and defensive pairs for all 12 October 24 games. This snapshot contains no loaded line or pair rows, and current-slate PP roles and metrics are unverified; line, pair and PP rankings and adjustments remain unavailable. Missing BTB unit, exposure and PP components use a neutral 50. These are projected reports, not confirmed dressing lists. Projection inputs for player, team, goalie and shot-location metrics remain through October 21. Per-player recent-game histories were separately refreshed from official NHL GameCenter boxscores and play-by-play through October 23; those histories are informational and do not change projections.", "performancePenaltyVersion": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "sogBaseModelVersion": null, "sogModelVersion": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "performancePenaltySettings": { "recentGames": 5, "recentWeight": 0.3, "playerShrinkMinutes": { "5on5": 60, "5on4": 15 }, "defenseShrinkMinutes": { "5on5": 100, "4on5": 30 }, "zonePriorShots": 30, "individualPenaltyCap": 0.1, "combinedStrengthPenaltyCap": 0.15 }, "pendingDataTeams": [], "performancePenaltyDescription": "Downward recent player attempts/min, recent positional/PK defensive allowance and volume-normalized recent zone shape; 15% combined cap per situation. Applied once before Goal probability. Provisional user-adopted settings, not independently calibrated.", "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "enabled": true, "activeFrom": "2026-10-22", "factor": 0.98, "description": "User-selected 2% reduction to final away-player Model SOG. The locked Goal model derives expected goals from adjusted SOG, reducing goal intensity once by 2%; 1+ goal probability is recalculated. Independent of B2B status. No separate travel, fatigue or B2B penalty." }, "goalModelVersion": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "goalModelDescription": "Current Model SOG × shot-weighted shooting percentage from current plus two prior seasons, regressed with 100 prior shots toward a forward/defense baseline excluding the player; confirmed-only goalie adjustment; Poisson 1+ goal probability. No additional PP or matchup boost.", "btb": { "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "date": "2026-10-24", "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "historyThrough": "2026-10-20", "comparisonPlayers": 431, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "notes": "Experimental ranking index, not probability. Individual metrics use all listed players; unit/exposure percentiles use comparable forward-line or defensive-pair groups. Raw ranks fixed before filtering. All players retained individually. Missing inputs neutral50; known no-PP role0 only where current PP-unit coverage is present. Goalie-neutral Goal baseline avoids counting the current goalie factor in both Goal model and Goalie groups. Correlated groups are capped, not claimed independent.", "samplePolicy": "Team H2H ratios use own observed SOG × regressed shooting baseline with 10-game prior, plus games/(games+10) confidence shrink. Player-goalie scoring uses50-shot prior plus shots/(shots+50) shrink. Exposure uses games/(games+5). iXG uses10-game .2 xG/game prior. These are provisional, not fitted.", "limits": "Exact-five PP production remains partial; player/team fallback PP rates shrink unit percentile toward50. Exposure xGA describes overall unit allowance, not defenseman-specific shot allowance. Shift coverage is partial. Prior previews used different defender normalization and forecast-based H2H denominators; this audited revision supersedes those scores." }, "h2hWindow": "Team H2H: 2024–25 through 2026–27 (cutoff 2026-10-23); goalie-team H2H: saved 2008–2026 files; player-goalie H2H: shot events from 2021–22 through 2026–27. Informational only; no projection formulas changed.", "h2hRestored": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "h2hSource": "MoneyPuck published game-by-game skater/goalie files and regular-season shot archives", "h2hIdentityResolutions": [ { "team": "OTT", "name": "Jonas Johansson", "id": "8477992" } ] }, "players": [ { "id": "8480355", "name": "Mark Kastelic", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "position": "R", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 0.9, "priorSOG": 1.2195121951219512, "currentTOI": 11.376666666666667, "currentFiveTOI": 9.775, "ppShare": 0.009149828440716736, "rate": 1.2417124547224165, "fifty": 1.1692048103703196, "inputs": { "Player": "Mark Kastelic", "Player_ID": "8480355", "Team": "BOS", "Opponent": "SJS", "Position": "C", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.2107397022872441, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.1509054474515303, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 10, "Prior_GP": 82, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.910485933503836, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.869526784135777, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 9.94658536585366, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 9.775, "Current_PP_Share": 0.009149828440716736, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.016965494224315352, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 24.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2623.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 6, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.950833333333334, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.05690749324367162, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.04529927563858178, "Other_State_SOG": 0.19658536585365857, "Environment_Proxy": 1.0796680236682055, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.2195121951219512, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/boston-bruins/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:39.136021+00:00", "priorGP": 82, "currentTotalSOG": 9.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.04, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.90 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.567, "currentIXG": 0.1567, "priorTOI": 12.61890243902439, "priorPPTOI": 0.07439024390243902, "deploymentChange": -1.2422357723577235, "ppTOIChange": -0.03439024390243902, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2026020105", "date": "20261013", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 12.45 }, { "gameId": "2025021027", "date": "20260312", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 7.966666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020351", "date": "20251123", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "away", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 8.0, "toi": 15.316666666666666 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 2.6666666666666665, "opponentDefense": { "team": "SJS", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 286.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 28.6, "mostAllowedRank": 10, "fiveSogAllowed60": 25.210423540502322, "pkSogAllowed60": 49.90958408679928, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 47.8, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 86.0, "C": 94.0, "R": 53.0, "L": 53.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.4, "L": 5.3, "R": 5.3, "D": 8.6 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 30.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 29.833333333333332, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 28.6, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.3, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8477968", "team": "SJS", "name": "Alex Nedeljkovic", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 4, "savePct": 0.9173553719008265, "gaa": 2.372479240806643, "gsax": 4.638, "goalsAllowed": 10.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 14.638, "shotsAgainst": 121.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9618500831522029, "factor": 0.9618500831522029, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T16:06:01.887Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.11178928249161944, "goalHistoryGoals": 18.0, "goalHistoryShots": 176.0, "goalExpected": 0.09992617939879293, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.09611400396381092, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.09509578385633846, "goalProbability": 0.09163954652671992, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.34562373296185417, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 0.893879781420765, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.910485933503836, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 9.775, "Current_PP_Share": 0.009149828440716736, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.950833333333334, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.04529927563858178, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.1, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9930883597207428, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0259958714356598, "Position_Factor": 0.9922140700829225, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 24.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2623.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.869526784135777, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 10.346951219512196, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.016965494224315352, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9923497267759562, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.382352941176471, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9923497267759562, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0259958714356598, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 4.910485933503836, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 2.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 3.5 }, { "season": "2026", "label": "2026–27", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 1.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2026020105", "date": "20261013", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 12.45 }, { "gameId": "2025021027", "date": "20260312", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 7.966666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020351", "date": "20251123", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "away", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 8.0, "toi": 15.316666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020740", "date": "20250120", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 7.033333333333333 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 153, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477968", "goalieName": "Alex Nedeljkovic", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8480355", "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 2, "recordedAttempts": 6, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021027", "date": "20260312", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 4 }, { "gameId": "2024020952", "date": "20250301", "season": 2024, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477968", "goalieName": "Alex Nedeljkovic", "opponent": "BOS", "games": 5, "availableGames": 8, "shotsAgainst": 134.0, "goalsAgainst": 17.0, "savePct": 0.8731343283582089, "gaa": 3.7850207186591627, "gsax": -3.2609999999999997, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021027", "date": "20260312", "goalieTeam": "SJS", "opponent": "BOS", "shotsAgainst": 41.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.661 }, { "gameId": "2024020952", "date": "20250301", "goalieTeam": "PIT", "opponent": "BOS", "shotsAgainst": 25.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3474.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.566 }, { "gameId": "2023021279", "date": "20240413", "goalieTeam": "PIT", "opponent": "BOS", "shotsAgainst": 16.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 1895.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.22 }, { "gameId": "2023021012", "date": "20240309", "goalieTeam": "PIT", "opponent": "BOS", "shotsAgainst": 23.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.955 }, { "gameId": "2023020589", "date": "20240104", "goalieTeam": "PIT", "opponent": "BOS", "shotsAgainst": 29.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.337 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.893879781420765, "adjustedSOG": 0.893879781420765, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.893879781420765, "adjustedSOG": 0.893879781420765, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.11178928249161944, "goalHistoryGoals": 18.0, "goalHistoryShots": 176.0, "goalExpected": 0.09992617939879293, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.09992617939879293, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.09509578385633846, "goalProbability": 0.09509578385633846, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1285384196768697, "modelSOG": 0.893879781420765, "historyGames": 153, "seasonGames": { "2024": 61, "2025": 82, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 18.0, "historyShots": 176.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.10227272727272728, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.11178928249161944, "goalieFactor": 0.9618500831522029, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 51.32657173308841, "btb": { "id": "8480355", "name": "Mark Kastelic", "score": 51.32657173308841, "components": { "Goal model": 35.348837209302324, "SOG model": 20.930232558139537, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 49.06976744186046, "Goalie": 97.5, "Team H2H": 57.57180156657963, "Goalie H2H": 49.17545684147972 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": 3, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 191 } }, { "id": "8480426", "name": "Charle-Edouard D'Astous", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "UTA", "position": "D", "currentGP": 8, "currentSOG": 1.375, "priorSOG": 1.1428571428571428, "currentTOI": 14.65, "currentFiveTOI": 12.25625, "ppShare": 0.29464285714285715, "rate": 0.9132258696401335, "fifty": 0.9673959884073917, "inputs": { "Player": "Charle-Edouard D'Astous", "Player_ID": "8480426", "Team": "TBL", "Opponent": "UTA", "Position": "D", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 0.9761148225279668, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.1321019514222408, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 8, "Prior_GP": 70, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.8954614992350844, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.623709413016594, "Current_PP_SOG60": 9.486166007905139, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 5.2734375, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 13.546660714285713, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 12.25625, "Current_PP_Share": 0.29464285714285715, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.1925120939083385, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 759.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2576.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 5, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.626018518518518, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 1.2212856728820694, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 1.3630233134920633, "Other_State_SOG": 0.06392857142857143, "Environment_Proxy": 0.85, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.1428571428571428, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:39.160164+00:00", "priorGP": 70.0, "currentTotalSOG": 11.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.58125, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.38 SOG/game in 8 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 8 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.362, "currentIXG": 0.04525, "priorTOI": 18.752142857142857, "priorPPTOI": 0.9752380952380952, "deploymentChange": -4.102142857142857, "ppTOIChange": 0.6060119047619048, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020194", "date": "20251102", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 14.5 } ], "h2hGames": 1, "h2hAvailableGames": 1, "h2hSOG": 0.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "UTA", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 225.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 22.5, "mostAllowedRank": 30, "fiveSogAllowed60": 21.06050814598143, "pkSogAllowed60": 53.47313237221494, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 35.6, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 58.0, "C": 87.0, "R": 52.0, "L": 28.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 8.7, "L": 2.8, "R": 5.2, "D": 5.8 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 22.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 20.25, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 22.5, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.8, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8478872", "team": "UTA", "name": "Karel Vejmelka", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 8, "savePct": 0.8793103448275862, "gaa": 2.8927833473635878, "gsax": -2.0919999999999987, "goalsAllowed": 21.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 18.908, "shotsAgainst": 174.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0222659253207917, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Likely starter per Daily Faceoff; no Model Goal adjustment until confirmed.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T17:11:59.953Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.06682315104357589, "goalHistoryGoals": 7.0, "goalHistoryShots": 91.0, "goalExpected": 0.08007859036728722, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.08007859036728722, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.0769561988153612, "goalProbability": 0.0769561988153612, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 8, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.1983659722222222, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.8954614992350844, "Current_PP_SOG60": 9.486166007905139, "Current_5v5_Min": 12.25625, "Current_PP_Share": 0.29464285714285715, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.626018518518518, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.3630233134920633, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.125, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9114659361351877, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.05376529706562, "Position_Factor": 0.9944572953736655, "Input_GP": 8, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 759.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2576.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.623709413016594, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 5.2734375, "Prior_5v5_Min": 16.557619047619045, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.1925120939083385, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.8947508896797154, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.34640522875817, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.8491254899487057, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.25, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.15, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.469046714774022, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 11.745513866231647, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 0.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020194", "date": "20251102", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 14.5 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "NHL.com projected lineup", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 8, "priorAttempts": 109, "fitPct": -5.029150335043141, "index": 94.97084966495686, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 68.8532110091743, "opponentDeltaPct": -5.689070301576365, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 65 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 11.169724770642201, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.7770704564453013, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 10 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 3.669724770642202, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.327351233427365, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 10 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 13.738532110091745, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.9245535697431251, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 17 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 1.834862385321101, "opponentDeltaPct": -16.04971857561877, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.7339449541284404, "opponentDeltaPct": -20.1847447341527, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 7, "fitPct": 15.090154164738024, "index": 115.09015416473802, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 94.28571428571428, "opponentDeltaPct": 17.305597288121845, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 5.714285714285714, "opponentDeltaPct": -21.464657371094802, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.5905016923962023, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 9.618907395292567, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 13.720872325288695, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 37.671799141718395, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -5.029150335043141, "zonePPFit": 15.090154164738024, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478872", "goalieName": "Karel Vejmelka", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8480426", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478872", "goalieName": "Karel Vejmelka", "opponent": "TBL", "games": 5, "availableGames": 6, "shotsAgainst": 128.0, "goalsAgainst": 18.0, "savePct": 0.859375, "gaa": 4.0538004379105415, "gsax": -5.162, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020825", "date": "20260126", "goalieTeam": "UTA", "opponent": "TBL", "shotsAgainst": 29.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.389 }, { "gameId": "2025020194", "date": "20251102", "goalieTeam": "UTA", "opponent": "TBL", "shotsAgainst": 25.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3527.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.366 }, { "gameId": "2024021145", "date": "20250327", "goalieTeam": "UTA", "opponent": "TBL", "shotsAgainst": 12.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 1754.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.834 }, { "gameId": "2024021111", "date": "20250322", "goalieTeam": "UTA", "opponent": "TBL", "shotsAgainst": 27.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.77 }, { "gameId": "2022020582", "date": "20221231", "goalieTeam": "ARI", "opponent": "TBL", "shotsAgainst": 35.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3504.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.479 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.1983659722222222, "adjustedSOG": 1.1983659722222222, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.2228224206349205, "adjustedSOG": 1.1983659722222222, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.06682315104357589, "goalHistoryGoals": 7.0, "goalHistoryShots": 91.0, "goalExpected": 0.08171284731355838, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.08171284731355838, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.07846345759962571, "goalProbability": 0.07846345759962571, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05763221849322995, "modelSOG": 1.1983659722222222, "historyGames": 78, "seasonGames": { "2025": 70, "2026": 8 }, "historyGoals": 7.0, "historyShots": 91.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.07692307692307693, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.06682315104357589, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 41.51586727681208, "btb": { "id": "8480426", "name": "Charle-Edouard D'Astous", "score": 41.51586727681208, "components": { "Goal model": 28.372093023255815, "SOG model": 41.16279069767442, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 14.186046511627907, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 49.098029907429385, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Likely", "h2hGames": 1, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 326 } }, { "id": "8483524", "name": "Shane Wright", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "position": "R", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 1.7, "priorSOG": 1.3108108108108107, "currentTOI": 13.805000000000001, "currentFiveTOI": 11.905, "ppShare": 0.36722532588454376, "rate": 1.2860985038844657, "fifty": 1.3764195234090528, "inputs": { "Player": "Shane Wright", "Player_ID": "8483524", "Team": "SEA", "Opponent": "MIN", "Position": "C", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.5288920812646947, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.7154421508843023, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 10, "Prior_GP": 74, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 7.055858882822344, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.2409672723147605, "Current_PP_SOG60": 3.6511156186612577, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 6.253618992472496, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 11.907216216216215, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 11.905, "Current_PP_Share": 0.36722532588454376, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.3737445101804959, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 986.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2685.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 6, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.085, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 1.87728579776638, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 1.867340782122905, "Other_State_SOG": 0.06864864864864866, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9620662188708584, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.3108108108108107, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/seattle-kraken/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:39.192528+00:00", "priorGP": 74, "currentTotalSOG": 17.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.6433333333333333, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.70 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 2.765, "currentIXG": 0.2765, "priorTOI": 13.801576576576577, "priorPPTOI": 1.555855855855856, "deploymentChange": 0.0034234234234240546, "ppTOIChange": 0.08747747747747736, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020693", "date": "20260108", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 11.4 }, { "gameId": "2025020465", "date": "20251208", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 15.966666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024021088", "date": "20250319", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 19.9 }, { "gameId": "2024020982", "date": "20250304", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 14.35 }, { "gameId": "2024020033", "date": "20241012", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 16.033333333333335 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 5, "h2hSOG": 2.4, "opponentDefense": { "team": "MIN", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 261.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 26.1, "mostAllowedRank": 21, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.40367597004765, "pkSogAllowed60": 45.30289727831431, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 40.4, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 77.0, "C": 114.0, "R": 29.0, "L": 41.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 11.4, "L": 4.1, "R": 2.9, "D": 7.7 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 24.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 28.333333333333332, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 26.1, "oppPosSogAllowed": 2.9, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8482661", "team": "MIN", "name": "Jesper Wallstedt", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 9, "savePct": 0.9152542372881356, "gaa": 2.1979363819525, "gsax": 6.934999999999999, "goalsAllowed": 20.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 26.935, "shotsAgainst": 236.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9495343259526882, "factor": 0.9495343259526882, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T18:37:27.914Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.15358324768109927, "goalHistoryGoals": 34.0, "goalHistoryShots": 205.0, "goalExpected": 0.2304941886421566, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.21886214404834192, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.20585894997335802, "goalProbability": 0.19656753153281026, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.9291418440547761, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.5007768889010307, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 7.055858882822344, "Current_PP_SOG60": 3.6511156186612577, "Current_5v5_Min": 11.905, "Current_PP_Share": 0.36722532588454376, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.085, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.867340782122905, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.2, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.957587153238364, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9748801923935355, "Position_Factor": 0.95, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 986.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2685.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.2409672723147605, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 6.253618992472496, "Prior_5v5_Min": 11.912387387387387, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.3737445101804959, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.85, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.382352941176471, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9748801923935355, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 7.055858882822344, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 3.6511156186612577, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 2.6666666666666665 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020693", "date": "20260108", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 11.4 }, { "gameId": "2025020465", "date": "20251208", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 15.966666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024021088", "date": "20250319", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 19.9 }, { "gameId": "2024020982", "date": "20250304", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 14.35 }, { "gameId": "2024020033", "date": "20241012", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 16.033333333333335 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 122, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 25, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482661", "goalieName": "Jesper Wallstedt", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8483524", "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 4, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020693", "date": "20260108", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 4 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482661", "goalieName": "Jesper Wallstedt", "opponent": "SEA", "games": 2, "availableGames": 2, "shotsAgainst": 55.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "savePct": 0.9272727272727272, "gaa": 1.9647973802701597, "gsax": 2.874, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021240", "date": "20260407", "goalieTeam": "MIN", "opponent": "SEA", "shotsAgainst": 27.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.053 }, { "gameId": "2025020693", "date": "20260108", "goalieTeam": "MIN", "opponent": "SEA", "shotsAgainst": 28.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3729.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.821 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.5007768889010307, "adjustedSOG": 1.5007768889010307, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.5007768889010307, "adjustedSOG": 1.5007768889010307, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.15358324768109927, "goalHistoryGoals": 34.0, "goalHistoryShots": 205.0, "goalExpected": 0.2304941886421566, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.2304941886421566, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.20585894997335802, "goalProbability": 0.20585894997335802, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12842890542735272, "modelSOG": 1.5007768889010307, "historyGames": 163, "seasonGames": { "2024": 79, "2025": 74, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 34.0, "historyShots": 205.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.16585365853658537, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.15358324768109927, "goalieFactor": 0.9495343259526882, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 56.40395130480945, "btb": { "id": "8483524", "name": "Shane Wright", "score": 56.40395130480945, "components": { "Goal model": 74.4186046511628, "SOG model": 57.2093023255814, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 80.23255813953489, "Goalie": 23.676470588235293, "Team H2H": 54.91731940818102, "Goalie H2H": 50.31264474293654 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 5, "goalieH2HShots": 1, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 131 } }, { "id": "8477845", "name": "Trevor van Riemsdyk", "team": "PIT", "opponent": "NSH", "position": "D", "currentGP": 5, "currentSOG": 0.4, "priorSOG": 0.6470588235294118, "currentTOI": 18.806666666666665, "currentFiveTOI": 15.493333333333334, "ppShare": 0.000649772579597141, "rate": 0.6943305413413587, "fifty": 0.6149031916960164, "inputs": { "Player": "Trevor van Riemsdyk", "Player_ID": "8477845", "Team": "PIT", "Opponent": "NSH", "Position": "D", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 0.7305304285812714, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 0.646289087221304, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 5, "Prior_GP": 68, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 1.549053356282272, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 2.5374340284343893, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 15.12246568627451, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 15.493333333333334, "Current_PP_Share": 0.000649772579597141, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.014954926204877705, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1539.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 5, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.130208333333334, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.02534999420402912, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.00333346870262075, "Other_State_SOG": 0.03970588235294118, "Environment_Proxy": 1.0738773444064478, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 0.6470588235294118, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/pittsburgh-penguins/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:39.211325+00:00", "priorGP": 68, "currentTotalSOG": 2.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.003333333333333333, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.40 SOG/game in 5 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 5 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.035, "currentIXG": 0.007000000000000001, "priorTOI": 16.23970588235294, "priorPPTOI": 0.06544117647058824, "deploymentChange": 2.566960784313725, "ppTOIChange": -0.062107843137254905, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020908", "date": "20260205", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 16.116666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020713", "date": "20260111", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 11.583333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020679", "date": "20250111", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 15.833333333333334 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 1.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "NSH", "games": 8, "sogAllowedTotal": 233.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 29.125, "mostAllowedRank": 8, "fiveSogAllowed60": 26.902173913043477, "pkSogAllowed60": 37.776914108045084, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 45.125, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 82.0, "L": 44.0, "D": 67.0, "R": 40.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.25, "L": 5.5, "R": 5.0, "D": 8.375 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 27.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 3, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 30.0, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 29.125, "oppPosSogAllowed": 8.375, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8477424", "team": "NSH", "name": "Juuse Saros", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.9061032863849765, "gaa": 2.8192176670973805, "gsax": 1.6679999999999993, "goalsAllowed": 20.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 21.668, "shotsAgainst": 213.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9906396066739361, "factor": 0.9906396066739361, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T15:56:16.281Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.04325152053724624, "goalHistoryGoals": 4.0, "goalHistoryShots": 126.0, "goalExpected": 0.018377193117160122, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.01820517536135447, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.0182093621635241, "goalProbability": 0.01804046221485389, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.016889994867021196, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 5, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 0.4248912613681297, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 1.549053356282272, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 15.493333333333334, "Current_PP_Share": 0.000649772579597141, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.130208333333334, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.00333346870262075, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0235094259979116, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9053307495740243, "Position_Factor": 1.007338478796179, "Input_GP": 5, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1539.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 2.5374340284343893, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 14.257107843137256, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.014954926204877705, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0622281534203242, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.34640522875817, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0622281534203242, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9053307495740243, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 1.549053356282272, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020908", "date": "20260205", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 16.116666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020713", "date": "20260111", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 11.583333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020679", "date": "20250111", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 15.833333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020205", "date": "20241106", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 14.466666666666667 } ], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 63, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. 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Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477424", "goalieName": "Juuse Saros", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8477845", "goals": 0, "sog": 4, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 4, "recordedAttempts": 5, "log": [ { "gameId": "2024020679", "date": "20250111", "season": 2024, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2024020205", "date": "20241106", "season": 2024, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2023020468", "date": "20231216", "season": 2023, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2021021095", "date": "20220215", "season": 2021, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477424", "goalieName": "Juuse Saros", "opponent": "PIT", "games": 5, "availableGames": 13, "shotsAgainst": 131.0, "goalsAgainst": 15.0, "savePct": 0.8854961832061069, "gaa": 3.034219250435467, "gsax": -2.5649999999999995, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020296", "date": "20251116", "goalieTeam": "NSH", "opponent": "PIT", "shotsAgainst": 21.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3562.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.064 }, { "gameId": "2025020281", "date": "20251114", "goalieTeam": "NSH", "opponent": "PIT", "shotsAgainst": 17.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3637.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.622 }, { "gameId": "2024020830", "date": "20250201", "goalieTeam": "NSH", "opponent": "PIT", "shotsAgainst": 35.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3527.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.258 }, { "gameId": "2024020515", "date": "20241219", "goalieTeam": "NSH", "opponent": "PIT", "shotsAgainst": 20.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3657.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.863 }, { "gameId": "2023021289", "date": "20240415", "goalieTeam": "NSH", "opponent": "PIT", "shotsAgainst": 38.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3414.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.628 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.4248912613681297, "adjustedSOG": 0.4248912613681297, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.4248912613681297, "adjustedSOG": 0.4248912613681297, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.04325152053724624, "goalHistoryGoals": 4.0, "goalHistoryShots": 126.0, "goalExpected": 0.018377193117160122, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.01820517536135447, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.0182093621635241, "goalProbability": 0.01804046221485389, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.016889994867021196 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05774843641417651, "modelSOG": 0.4248912613681297, "historyGames": 155, "seasonGames": { "2024": 82, "2025": 68, "2026": 5 }, "historyGoals": 4.0, "historyShots": 126.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.031746031746031744, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.04325152053724624, "goalieFactor": 0.9906396066739361, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8477365", "name": "Connor Clifton", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "position": "D", "currentGP": 6, "currentSOG": 1.0, "priorSOG": 0.7, "currentTOI": 20.627777777777776, "currentFiveTOI": 17.944444444444446, "ppShare": 0.05068078668683813, "rate": 0.861035908872113, "fifty": 0.9029593836759221, "inputs": { "Player": "Connor Clifton", "Player_ID": "8477365", "Team": "BOS", "Opponent": "SJS", "Position": "D", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 0.8215760577373672, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 0.8613114167977354, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 6, "Prior_GP": 50, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.7863777089783284, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 2.796435915010281, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 16.938111111111112, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 17.944444444444446, "Current_PP_Share": 0.05068078668683813, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.001740398279903291, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 67.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1322.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 6, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.950833333333334, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.17822341620735446, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.25091212808875446, "Other_State_SOG": 0.034666666666666665, "Environment_Proxy": 1.0796680236682055, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 0.7, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/boston-bruins/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:39.230085+00:00", "priorGP": 50, "currentTotalSOG": 6.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.18611111111111112, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.00 SOG/game in 6 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 6 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.304, "currentIXG": 0.050666666666666665, "priorTOI": 16.765666666666664, "priorPPTOI": 0.007666666666666667, "deploymentChange": 3.862111111111112, "ppTOIChange": 0.17844444444444446, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020497", "date": "20251213", "team": "PIT", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 13.2 }, { "gameId": "2024020974", "date": "20250304", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 17.066666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020331", "date": "20241123", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 14.066666666666666 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 3, "h2hSOG": 1.3333333333333333, "opponentDefense": { "team": "SJS", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 286.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 28.6, "mostAllowedRank": 10, "fiveSogAllowed60": 25.210423540502322, "pkSogAllowed60": 49.90958408679928, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 47.8, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 86.0, "C": 94.0, "R": 53.0, "L": 53.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.4, "L": 5.3, "R": 5.3, "D": 8.6 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 30.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 29.833333333333332, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 28.6, "oppPosSogAllowed": 8.6, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8477968", "team": "SJS", "name": "Alex Nedeljkovic", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 4, "savePct": 0.9173553719008265, "gaa": 2.372479240806643, "gsax": 4.638, "goalsAllowed": 10.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 14.638, "shotsAgainst": 121.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9618500831522029, "factor": 0.9618500831522029, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T16:06:01.887Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.043010869841546555, "goalHistoryGoals": 3.0, "goalHistoryShots": 104.0, "goalExpected": 0.04606895289152011, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.04431142616944354, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.04502388844377954, "goalProbability": 0.04334401663138773, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.1679871812391806, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 6, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.0711002372479244, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.7863777089783284, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 17.944444444444446, "Current_PP_Share": 0.05068078668683813, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.950833333333334, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.25091212808875446, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.16666666666666666, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9930883597207428, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0259958714356598, "Position_Factor": 1.0143476407933703, "Input_GP": 6, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 67.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1322.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 2.796435915010281, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 14.59, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.001740398279903291, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.085320284697509, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.34640522875817, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.085320284697509, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0259958714356598, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 2.7863777089783284, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 2.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. 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Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477968", "goalieName": "Alex Nedeljkovic", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8477365", "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 4, "recordedAttempts": 6, "log": [ { "gameId": "2024021143", "date": "20250327", "season": 2024, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2 }, { "gameId": "2024020720", "date": "20250117", "season": 2024, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2023020301", "date": "20231124", "season": 2023, "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 2 }, { "gameId": "2021020575", "date": "20220102", "season": 2021, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477968", "goalieName": "Alex Nedeljkovic", "opponent": "BOS", "games": 5, "availableGames": 8, "shotsAgainst": 134.0, "goalsAgainst": 17.0, "savePct": 0.8731343283582089, "gaa": 3.7850207186591627, "gsax": -3.2609999999999997, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021027", "date": "20260312", "goalieTeam": "SJS", "opponent": "BOS", "shotsAgainst": 41.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.661 }, { "gameId": "2024020952", "date": "20250301", "goalieTeam": "PIT", "opponent": "BOS", "shotsAgainst": 25.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3474.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.566 }, { "gameId": "2023021279", "date": "20240413", "goalieTeam": "PIT", "opponent": "BOS", "shotsAgainst": 16.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 1895.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.22 }, { "gameId": "2023021012", "date": "20240309", "goalieTeam": "PIT", "opponent": "BOS", "shotsAgainst": 23.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.955 }, { "gameId": "2023020589", "date": "20240104", "goalieTeam": "PIT", "opponent": "BOS", "shotsAgainst": 29.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.337 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.0711002372479244, "adjustedSOG": 1.0711002372479244, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.0711002372479244, "adjustedSOG": 1.0711002372479244, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.043010869841546555, "goalHistoryGoals": 3.0, "goalHistoryShots": 104.0, "goalExpected": 0.04606895289152011, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.04606895289152011, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.04502388844377954, "goalProbability": 0.04502388844377954, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.057742174476754955, "modelSOG": 1.0711002372479244, "historyGames": 129, "seasonGames": { "2024": 73, "2025": 50, "2026": 6 }, "historyGoals": 3.0, "historyShots": 104.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.028846153846153848, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.043010869841546555, "goalieFactor": 0.9618500831522029, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8482726", "name": "Samuel Helenius", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "NJD", "position": "C", "currentGP": 5, "currentSOG": 0.8, "priorSOG": 0.7169811320754716, "currentTOI": 8.61, "currentFiveTOI": 8.61, "ppShare": 0.0, "rate": 0.7144981061680997, "fifty": 0.7359361843491602, "inputs": { "Player": "Samuel Helenius", "Player_ID": "8482726", "Team": "LAK", "Opponent": "NJD", "Position": "C", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 0.6209087630828245, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 0.5565624982296211, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 5, "Prior_GP": 53, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.574912891986063, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.435689593515318, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 8.401245283018866, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 8.61, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.004574544012260211, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1392.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 2, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.575661375661376, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.00627946930444862, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.0, "Other_State_SOG": 0.0, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9357862710703578, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 0.7169811320754716, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/los-angeles-kings/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:39.249125+00:00", "priorGP": 53, "currentTotalSOG": 4.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.0, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.80 SOG/game in 5 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 5 games. 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MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021050", "date": "20260314", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "away", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 8.0, "toi": 10.4 }, { "gameId": "2024020602", "date": "20250101", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 5.416666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020461", "date": "20241212", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 9.566666666666666 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 62, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. 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Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8474596", "goalieName": "Jake Allen", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8482726", "goals": 0, "sog": 5, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 8, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021050", "date": "20260314", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 5, "attempts": 8 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8474596", "goalieName": "Jake Allen", "opponent": "LAK", "games": 5, "availableGames": 17, "shotsAgainst": 151.0, "goalsAgainst": 16.0, "savePct": 0.8940397350993378, "gaa": 3.2597623089983023, "gsax": 1.5839999999999996, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021050", "date": "20260314", "goalieTeam": "NJD", "opponent": "LAK", "shotsAgainst": 31.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.558 }, { "gameId": "2024020602", "date": "20250101", "goalieTeam": "NJD", "opponent": "LAK", "shotsAgainst": 23.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3431.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.828 }, { "gameId": "2023020309", "date": "20231125", "goalieTeam": "MTL", "opponent": "LAK", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.339 }, { "gameId": "2022020982", "date": "20230302", "goalieTeam": "MTL", "opponent": "LAK", "shotsAgainst": 33.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3509.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.849 }, { "gameId": "2022020439", "date": "20221210", "goalieTeam": "MTL", "opponent": "LAK", "shotsAgainst": 34.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3530.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.01 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.7536527190552558, "adjustedSOG": 0.7536527190552558, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.7690333867910774, "adjustedSOG": 0.7536527190552558, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.1277768082964253, "goalHistoryGoals": 9.0, "goalHistoryShots": 71.0, "goalExpected": 0.09826463163755417, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.09826463163755417, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.09359099248669868, "goalProbability": 0.09359099248669868, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12849834218688724, "modelSOG": 0.7536527190552558, "historyGames": 108, "seasonGames": { "2024": 50, "2025": 53, "2026": 5 }, "historyGoals": 9.0, "historyShots": 71.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.1267605633802817, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.1277768082964253, "goalieFactor": 1.0365218981504722, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 43.87654637923836, "btb": { "id": "8482726", "name": "Samuel Helenius", "score": 43.87654637923836, "components": { "Goal model": 33.48837209302326, "SOG model": 15.581395348837209, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 31.86046511627907, "Goalie": 55.44117647058823, "Team H2H": 52.74151436031332, "Goalie H2H": 47.58410880458125 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 3, "goalieH2HShots": 5, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 290 } }, { "id": "8478173", "name": "Hayden Hodgson", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "NYR", "position": "R", "currentGP": 3, "currentSOG": 0.0, "priorSOG": 0.4, "currentTOI": 5.8999999999999995, "currentFiveTOI": 5.855555555555555, "ppShare": 0.003568242640499554, "rate": 0.3174550418212053, "fifty": 0.19523954898467302, "inputs": { "Player": "Hayden Hodgson", "Player_ID": "8478173", "Team": "OTT", "Opponent": "NYR", "Position": "R", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 0.31004027498800735, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 0.18692055866917892, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 3, "Prior_GP": 10, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 0.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.438395415472779, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 6.192888888888888, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 5.855555555555555, "Current_PP_Share": 0.003568242640499554, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.0023613042297787614, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 4.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1121.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 2, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 6.001439393939394, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.019241581632580836, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.021414591949828348, "Other_State_SOG": 0.0, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9482920490252438, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 0.4, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/ottawa-senators/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:39.268511+00:00", "priorGP": 10, "currentTotalSOG": 0.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.022222222222222223, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.00 SOG/game in 3 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 3 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.161, "currentIXG": 0.05366666666666667, "priorTOI": 7.025, "priorPPTOI": 0.011666666666666667, "deploymentChange": -1.1250000000000009, "ppTOIChange": 0.010555555555555556, "h2hLog": [], "h2hGames": 0, "h2hAvailableGames": 0, "h2hSOG": null, "opponentDefense": { "team": "NYR", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 283.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 25.727272727272727, "mostAllowedRank": 23, "fiveSogAllowed60": 24.897512126427788, "pkSogAllowed60": 40.17358958462492, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 39.81818181818182, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 106.0, "D": 82.0, "R": 57.0, "L": 38.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.636363636363637, "L": 3.4545454545454546, "R": 5.181818181818182, "D": 7.454545454545454 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 27.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.4, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 25.727272727272727, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.181818181818182, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8482193", "team": "NYR", "name": "Dylan Garand", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.9285714285714286, "gaa": 1.846928781306842, "gsax": 4.030999999999999, "goalsAllowed": 11.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 15.030999999999999, "shotsAgainst": 154.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9674872583533348, "factor": 0.9674872583533348, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T15:37:42.216Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.12123029335445214, "goalHistoryGoals": 0.0, "goalHistoryShots": 6.0, "goalExpected": 0.0, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.0, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.0, "goalProbability": 0.0, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 3, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 0.0, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 5.855555555555555, "Current_PP_Share": 0.003568242640499554, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 6.001439393939394, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.021414591949828348, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9864268368728425, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9197863814450764, "Position_Factor": 1.002510875172058, "Input_GP": 3, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 4.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1121.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.438395415472779, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 6.9799999999999995, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.0023613042297787614, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9804839968774395, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.382352941176471, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9804839968774395, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9197863814450764, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 0, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "lineupReviewedAt": "2026-10-22T12:25:32.333917+00:00", "lineupReviewNote": "Reported forward, defense and PP chart reviewed October22; matches existing assignments. Final dressing unconfirmed. Dated statistical inputs now include October21.", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 9, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482193", "goalieName": "Dylan Garand", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8478173", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482193", "goalieName": "Dylan Garand", "opponent": "OTT", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "No appearance found in the supplied historical files; this does not establish that the goalie has never faced the team." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.0, "adjustedSOG": 0.0, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.0, "adjustedSOG": 0.0, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. 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Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.073, "currentIXG": 0.01825, "priorTOI": 15.760784313725491, "priorPPTOI": 0.06764705882352941, "deploymentChange": -1.219117647058825, "ppTOIChange": -0.013480392156862739, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021033", "date": "20260312", "team": "STL", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 14.983333333333333 } ], "h2hGames": 1, "h2hAvailableGames": 1, "h2hSOG": 2.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "CAR", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 246.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 22.363636363636363, "mostAllowedRank": 31, "fiveSogAllowed60": 21.75191064079953, "pkSogAllowed60": 32.87187039764359, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 33.09090909090909, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 77.0, "R": 66.0, "D": 59.0, "L": 44.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.0, "L": 4.0, "R": 6.0, "D": 5.363636363636363 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 23.0, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 7, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 22.428571428571427, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 22.363636363636363, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.363636363636363, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8481611", "team": "CAR", "name": "Pyotr Kochetkov", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 6, "savePct": 0.8991596638655462, "gaa": 1.9842910293509715, "gsax": 2.2720000000000002, "goalsAllowed": 12.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 14.272, "shotsAgainst": 119.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9828959307519136, "factor": 0.9828959307519136, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T22:32:34.088Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.0631359346662586, "goalHistoryGoals": 2.0, "goalHistoryShots": 23.0, "goalExpected": 0.040657600021640275, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.03996218961540914, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.03984216830835429, "goalProbability": 0.03917423234267856, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.06679359656757283, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 4, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 0.6439692425012709, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.2549728752260396, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 13.825, "Current_PP_Share": 0.009084556254367574, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.016414141414142, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.04557189646288179, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9235603264096603, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.85, "Position_Factor": 0.9854836768055022, "Input_GP": 4, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 13.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1431.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.676843130886652, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 15.09313725490196, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.016399610212163074, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.8586256566683613, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.34640522875817, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.8586256566683613, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.85, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 3.2549728752260396, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 2.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021033", "date": "20260312", "team": "STL", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 14.983333333333333 } ], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 30, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. 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Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.0631359346662586, "goalHistoryGoals": 2.0, "goalHistoryShots": 23.0, "goalExpected": 0.040657600021640275, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.040657600021640275, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.03984216830835429, "goalProbability": 0.03984216830835429, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05765719963949807, "modelSOG": 0.6439692425012709, "historyGames": 21, "seasonGames": { "2025": 17, "2026": 4 }, "historyGoals": 2.0, "historyShots": 23.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.08695652173913043, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.0631359346662586, "goalieFactor": 0.9828959307519136, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8483435", "name": "Jorian Donovan", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "NYR", "position": "D", "currentGP": 1, "currentSOG": 0.0, "priorSOG": 0.5, "currentTOI": 9.2, "currentFiveTOI": 9.2, "ppShare": 0.0, "rate": 0.5187165562620456, "fifty": 0.3407936854257135, "inputs": { "Player": "Jorian Donovan", "Player_ID": "8483435", "Team": "OTT", "Opponent": "NYR", "Position": "D", "Current_GP": 1, "Prior_GP": 2, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 0.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.301075268817204, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 8.532499999999999, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 9.2, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0, "Prior_PP_Share": 0, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 412.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 1, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Measured game-matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Historical skater-team PP minute approximation, existing hybrid method", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 6.001439393939394, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.0, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.0, "Other_State_SOG": 0.0, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9482920490252438, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 0.5, "Status": "Historical input object restored from saved prior summaries", "Availability_Note": "Conditional on dressing", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 0.4922936006226114, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 0.3251873908259761 }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/ottawa-senators/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:39.307972+00:00", "priorGP": 2, "currentTotalSOG": 0.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.0, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.00 SOG/game in 1 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 1 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.007, "currentIXG": 0.007, "priorTOI": 7.033333333333333, "priorPPTOI": 0, "deploymentChange": 2.166666666666666, "ppTOIChange": 0.0, "h2hLog": [], "h2hGames": 0, "h2hAvailableGames": 0, "h2hSOG": null, "opponentDefense": { "team": "NYR", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 283.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 25.727272727272727, "mostAllowedRank": 23, "fiveSogAllowed60": 24.897512126427788, "pkSogAllowed60": 40.17358958462492, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 39.81818181818182, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 106.0, "D": 82.0, "R": 57.0, "L": 38.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.636363636363637, "L": 3.4545454545454546, "R": 5.181818181818182, "D": 7.454545454545454 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 27.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.4, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 25.727272727272727, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.454545454545454, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8482193", "team": "NYR", "name": "Dylan Garand", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.9285714285714286, "gaa": 1.846928781306842, "gsax": 4.030999999999999, "goalsAllowed": 11.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 15.030999999999999, "shotsAgainst": 154.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9674872583533348, "factor": 0.9674872583533348, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T15:37:42.216Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.05710306565937804, "goalHistoryGoals": 0.0, "goalHistoryShots": 1.0, "goalExpected": 0.0, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.0, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.0, "goalProbability": 0.0, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": null, "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 1, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 0.0, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 9.2, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 6.001439393939394, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.0, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9864268368728425, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9197863814450764, "Position_Factor": 1.0097164911259575, "Input_GP": 1, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 412.0, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0077105575326217, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.34640522875817, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0077105575326217, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9197863814450764, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 0, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "lineupReviewedAt": "2026-10-22T12:25:32.333917+00:00", "lineupReviewNote": "Reported forward, defense and PP chart reviewed October22; matches existing assignments. Final dressing unconfirmed. Dated statistical inputs now include October21.", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482193", "goalieName": "Dylan Garand", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8483435", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482193", "goalieName": "Dylan Garand", "opponent": "OTT", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "No appearance found in the supplied historical files; this does not establish that the goalie has never faced the team." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.0, "adjustedSOG": 0.0, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.0, "adjustedSOG": 0.0, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.05710306565937804, "goalHistoryGoals": 0.0, "goalHistoryShots": 1.0, "goalExpected": 0.0, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.0, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.0, "goalProbability": 0.0, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05767409631597182, "modelSOG": 0.0, "historyGames": 3, "seasonGames": { "2025": 2, "2026": 1 }, "historyGoals": 0.0, "historyShots": 1.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.0, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.05710306565937804, "goalieFactor": 0.9674872583533348, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8473512", "name": "Claude Giroux", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "NYR", "position": "R", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 1.5, "priorSOG": 1.6829268292682926, "currentTOI": 17.16166666666667, "currentFiveTOI": 12.305, "ppShare": 0.4289060669946123, "rate": 1.6529058066539941, "fifty": 1.5249210599767948, "inputs": { "Player": "Claude Giroux", "Player_ID": "8473512", "Team": "OTT", "Opponent": "NYR", "Position": "R", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.7199033611617403, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.5875771035320405, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 10, "Prior_GP": 82, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.3636733035351485, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.141165740537437, "Current_PP_SOG60": 1.9661387220098308, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 8.070175438596491, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 12.223682926829266, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 12.305, "Current_PP_Share": 0.4289060669946123, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.4220728466468657, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1831.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 4269.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 5, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 6.001439393939394, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 2.5617510194263446, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 2.5740537667610752, "Other_State_SOG": 0.18365853658536585, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9482920490252438, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.6829268292682926, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/ottawa-senators/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:39.326596+00:00", "priorGP": 82, "currentTotalSOG": 15.0, "currentPPTOI": 3.0516666666666667, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.50 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.477, "currentIXG": 0.1477, "priorTOI": 16.302235772357722, "priorPPTOI": 2.0853658536585367, "deploymentChange": 0.8594308943089466, "ppTOIChange": 0.9663008130081301, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021119", "date": "20260323", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "NYR", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 15.75 }, { "gameId": "2025020737", "date": "20260114", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "NYR", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 16.35 }, { "gameId": "2025020427", "date": "20251204", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "NYR", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 16.616666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024021003", "date": "20250308", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "NYR", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 17.1 }, { "gameId": "2024020750", "date": "20250121", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "NYR", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 15.116666666666667 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 6, "h2hSOG": 0.6, "opponentDefense": { "team": "NYR", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 283.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 25.727272727272727, "mostAllowedRank": 23, "fiveSogAllowed60": 24.897512126427788, "pkSogAllowed60": 40.17358958462492, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 39.81818181818182, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 106.0, "D": 82.0, "R": 57.0, "L": 38.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.636363636363637, "L": 3.4545454545454546, "R": 5.181818181818182, "D": 7.454545454545454 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 27.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.4, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 25.727272727272727, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.181818181818182, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8482193", "team": "NYR", "name": "Dylan Garand", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.9285714285714286, "gaa": 1.846928781306842, "gsax": 4.030999999999999, "goalsAllowed": 11.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 15.030999999999999, "shotsAgainst": 154.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9674872583533348, "factor": 0.9674872583533348, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T15:37:42.216Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.11216223352209015, "goalHistoryGoals": 31.0, "goalHistoryShots": 291.0, "goalExpected": 0.16332117370480653, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.15801115457871204, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.1506816341209064, "goalProbability": 0.14615974231299972, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.4521891807906686, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.456115562041128, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.3636733035351485, "Current_PP_SOG60": 1.9661387220098308, "Current_5v5_Min": 12.305, "Current_PP_Share": 0.4289060669946123, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 6.001439393939394, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 2.5740537667610752, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.3, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9864268368728425, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9197863814450764, "Position_Factor": 1.002510875172058, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1831.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 4269.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.141165740537437, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 8.070175438596491, "Prior_5v5_Min": 12.033943089430894, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.4220728466468657, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9804839968774395, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.382352941176471, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9804839968774395, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9197863814450764, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.3636733035351485, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 1.9661387220098308, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 1.6666666666666667 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 0.3333333333333333 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021119", "date": "20260323", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "NYR", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 15.75 }, { "gameId": "2025020737", "date": "20260114", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "NYR", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 16.35 }, { "gameId": "2025020427", "date": "20251204", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "NYR", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 16.616666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024021003", "date": "20250308", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "NYR", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 17.1 }, { "gameId": "2024020750", "date": "20250121", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "NYR", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 15.116666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020170", "date": "20241101", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "NYR", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 22.833333333333332 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "lineupReviewedAt": "2026-10-22T12:25:32.333917+00:00", "lineupReviewNote": "Reported forward, defense and PP chart reviewed October22; matches existing assignments. Final dressing unconfirmed. Dated statistical inputs now include October21.", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 142, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 35, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482193", "goalieName": "Dylan Garand", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8473512", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482193", "goalieName": "Dylan Garand", "opponent": "OTT", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "No appearance found in the supplied historical files; this does not establish that the goalie has never faced the team." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.456115562041128, "adjustedSOG": 1.456115562041128, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.456115562041128, "adjustedSOG": 1.456115562041128, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.11216223352209015, "goalHistoryGoals": 31.0, "goalHistoryShots": 291.0, "goalExpected": 0.16332117370480653, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.15801115457871204, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.1506816341209064, "goalProbability": 0.14615974231299972, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.4521891807906686 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12855433307137243, "modelSOG": 1.456115562041128, "historyGames": 173, "seasonGames": { "2024": 81, "2025": 82, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 31.0, "historyShots": 291.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.10652920962199312, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.11216223352209015, "goalieFactor": 0.9674872583533348, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 47.479354482396516, "btb": { "id": "8473512", "name": "Claude Giroux", "score": 47.479354482396516, "components": { "Goal model": 56.27906976744186, "SOG model": 55.81395348837209, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 46.27906976744186, "Goalie": 39.55882352941177, "Team H2H": 32.327023498694516, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 6, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 241 } }, { "id": "8480834", "name": "Ty Emberson", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "TOR", "position": "D", "currentGP": 7, "currentSOG": 0.5714285714285714, "priorSOG": 0.6388888888888888, "currentTOI": 12.042857142857143, "currentFiveTOI": 11.842857142857143, "ppShare": 0.0, "rate": 0.6338357130397442, "fifty": 0.6229481359558501, "inputs": { "Player": "Ty Emberson", "Player_ID": "8480834", "Team": "EDM", "Opponent": "TOR", "Position": "D", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 0.523128197702867, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 0.31916472418288167, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 7, "Prior_GP": 72, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.8950542822677927, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 2.65278050697583, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 12.530833333333332, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 11.842857142857143, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.003069199213486511, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1771.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 3, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.365824915824916, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.004940635683406846, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.0, "Other_State_SOG": 0.012499999999999999, "Environment_Proxy": 1.1073475417853031, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 0.6388888888888888, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:39.346718+00:00", "priorGP": 72, "currentTotalSOG": 4.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.0, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.57 SOG/game in 7 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 7 games. 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Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476932", "goalieName": "Anthony Stolarz", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8480834", "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 3, "recordedAttempts": 3, "log": [ { "gameId": "2024020274", "date": "20241116", "season": 2024, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2023020237", "date": "20231114", "season": 2023, "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2023020089", "date": "20231024", "season": 2023, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476932", "goalieName": "Anthony Stolarz", "opponent": "EDM", "games": 5, "availableGames": 5, "shotsAgainst": 140.0, "goalsAgainst": 14.0, "savePct": 0.9, "gaa": 3.2642487046632125, "gsax": -1.5539999999999994, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020891", "date": "20260203", "goalieTeam": "TOR", "opponent": "EDM", "shotsAgainst": 36.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.709 }, { "gameId": "2024020274", "date": "20241116", "goalieTeam": "TOR", "opponent": "EDM", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3640.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.584 }, { "gameId": "2022020660", "date": "20230111", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "EDM", "shotsAgainst": 16.0, "goalsAgainst": 0.0, "seconds": 1200.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.249 }, { "gameId": "2021020049", "date": "20211019", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "EDM", "shotsAgainst": 36.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3461.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.959 }, { "gameId": "2018020494", "date": "20181214", "goalieTeam": "PHI", "opponent": "EDM", "shotsAgainst": 22.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3539.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.945 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.6350981673808315, "adjustedSOG": 0.6350981673808315, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.6350981673808315, "adjustedSOG": 0.6350981673808315, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.04609892203261865, "goalHistoryGoals": 4.0, "goalHistoryShots": 112.0, "goalExpected": 0.02927734090114794, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.02927734090114794, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.02885291169479996, "goalProbability": 0.02885291169479996, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05772971470915154, "modelSOG": 0.6350981673808315, "historyGames": 155, "seasonGames": { "2024": 76, "2025": 72, "2026": 7 }, "historyGoals": 4.0, "historyShots": 112.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.03571428571428571, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.04609892203261865, "goalieFactor": 0.9986972168772468, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 37.029651387961984, "btb": { "id": "8480834", "name": "Ty Emberson", "score": 37.029651387961984, "components": { "Goal model": 7.209302325581396, "SOG model": 11.162790697674419, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 13.023255813953488, "Goalie": 60.73529411764706, "Team H2H": 50.9697873927639, "Goalie H2H": 50.08328285887341 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": 2, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 388 } }, { "id": "8479420", "name": "Tage Thompson", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "WSH", "position": "C", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 4.5, "priorSOG": 3.3580246913580245, "currentTOI": 19.988333333333333, "currentFiveTOI": 15.455000000000002, "ppShare": 0.6699120603015075, "rate": 3.828086530022554, "fifty": 4.135209461466311, "inputs": { "Player": "Tage Thompson", "Player_ID": "8479420", "Team": "BUF", "Opponent": "WSH", "Position": "C", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 3.761110402545914, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 4.5225060527338865, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 10, "Prior_GP": 81, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 12.811387900355871, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 9.265700214251927, "Current_PP_SOG60": 11.814345991561181, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 14.086081609837898, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 15.255413580246913, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 15.455000000000002, "Current_PP_Share": 0.6699120603015075, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.6912250446451711, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2133.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3184.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 5, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.493148148148148, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 3.715048807611008, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 3.6799261934673364, "Other_State_SOG": 0.3055555555555555, "Environment_Proxy": 1.0834850655013406, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 3.3580246913580245, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/buffalo-sabres/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:39.365717+00:00", "priorGP": 81, "currentTotalSOG": 45.0, "currentPPTOI": 3.5549999999999997, "volumeNote": "Observed 4.50 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 4.978, "currentIXG": 0.49779999999999996, "priorTOI": 19.243621399176956, "priorPPTOI": 3.3129629629629633, "deploymentChange": 0.7447119341563777, "ppTOIChange": 0.24203703703703638, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021213", "date": "20260404", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 8.0, "toi": 19.333333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2025021028", "date": "20260312", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 15.0, "toi": 22.066666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020186", "date": "20251101", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 10.0, "toi": 19.383333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024021171", "date": "20250330", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 6.0, "goals": 2.0, "attempts": 10.0, "toi": 17.716666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2024020637", "date": "20250106", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 6.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 14.0, "toi": 23.8 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 6, "h2hSOG": 5.2, "opponentDefense": { "team": "WSH", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 263.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 29.22222222222222, "mostAllowedRank": 7, "fiveSogAllowed60": 28.540383918869974, "pkSogAllowed60": 52.820345614607106, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.111111111111114, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "L": 48.0, "D": 68.0, "C": 72.0, "R": 75.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 8.0, "L": 5.333333333333333, "R": 8.333333333333334, "D": 7.555555555555555 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 29.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27.5, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 29.22222222222222, "oppPosSogAllowed": 8.0, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8479292", "team": "WSH", "name": "Charlie Lindgren", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 2, "savePct": 0.896551724137931, "gaa": 3.061224489795918, "gsax": 0.2989999999999995, "goalsAllowed": 6.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 6.2989999999999995, "shotsAgainst": 58.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.99868053226692, "factor": 0.99868053226692, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T14:45:41.433Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.15452860978924404, "goalHistoryGoals": 89.0, "goalHistoryShots": 559.0, "goalExpected": 0.6552644614714714, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.6543998611579258, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.4806952916619138, "goalProbability": 0.480246106493422, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.04491851684918502, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 4.2404087007911535, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 12.811387900355871, "Current_PP_SOG60": 11.814345991561181, "Current_5v5_Min": 15.455000000000002, "Current_PP_Share": 0.6699120603015075, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.493148148148148, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 3.6799261934673364, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.5, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.053751909733539, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0558974457897532, "Position_Factor": 0.975132863651709, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2133.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3184.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 9.265700214251927, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 14.086081609837898, "Prior_5v5_Min": 14.78971193415638, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.6912250446451711, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9278320454876804, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.437908496732026, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9278320454876804, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0558974457897532, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 13.208663747189016, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 11.681990265008112, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 4.333333333333333 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 4.666666666666667 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021213", "date": "20260404", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 8.0, "toi": 19.333333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2025021028", "date": "20260312", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 15.0, "toi": 22.066666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020186", "date": "20251101", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 10.0, "toi": 19.383333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024021171", "date": "20250330", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 6.0, "goals": 2.0, "attempts": 10.0, "toi": 17.716666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2024020637", "date": "20250106", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 6.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 14.0, "toi": 23.8 }, { "gameId": "2024020480", "date": "20241214", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 19.2 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff latest reported chart; October 21 final lineup pending", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 271, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 99, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479292", "goalieName": "Charlie Lindgren", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8479420", "goals": 3, "sog": 30, "shootingPct": 0.1, "gamesWithAttempts": 7, "recordedAttempts": 49, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021028", "date": "20260312", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 5, "attempts": 8 }, { "gameId": "2025020186", "date": "20251101", "season": 2025, "goals": 1, "sog": 4, "attempts": 8 }, { "gameId": "2024020637", "date": "20250106", "season": 2024, "goals": 1, "sog": 6, "attempts": 11 }, { "gameId": "2023021255", "date": "20240411", "season": 2023, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 3 }, { "gameId": "2023021189", "date": "20240402", "season": 2023, "goals": 1, "sog": 4, "attempts": 5 }, { "gameId": "2022021076", "date": "20230315", "season": 2022, "goals": 0, "sog": 5, "attempts": 8 }, { "gameId": "2022020947", "date": "20230226", "season": 2022, "goals": 0, "sog": 5, "attempts": 6 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479292", "goalieName": "Charlie Lindgren", "opponent": "BUF", "games": 5, "availableGames": 8, "shotsAgainst": 128.0, "goalsAgainst": 16.0, "savePct": 0.875, "gaa": 3.275891486094523, "gsax": -2.283, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021028", "date": "20260312", "goalieTeam": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.161 }, { "gameId": "2025020186", "date": "20251101", "goalieTeam": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3892.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.677 }, { "gameId": "2024020637", "date": "20250106", "goalieTeam": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "shotsAgainst": 27.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3900.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.647 }, { "gameId": "2023021255", "date": "20240411", "goalieTeam": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "shotsAgainst": 16.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3458.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.149 }, { "gameId": "2023021189", "date": "20240402", "goalieTeam": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "shotsAgainst": 31.0, "goalsAgainst": 6.0, "seconds": 2733.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.083 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 4.2404087007911535, "adjustedSOG": 4.2404087007911535, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 4.326947653868524, "adjustedSOG": 4.2404087007911535, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.15452860978924404, "goalHistoryGoals": 89.0, "goalHistoryShots": 559.0, "goalExpected": 0.6686372055831342, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.6677549603652305, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.48759359322986745, "goalProbability": 0.4871413256517528, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.045226757811467344 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12834353851111827, "modelSOG": 4.2404087007911535, "historyGames": 167, "seasonGames": { "2024": 76, "2025": 81, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 89.0, "historyShots": 559.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.1592128801431127, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.15452860978924404, "goalieFactor": 0.99868053226692, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 69.97295878692859, "btb": { "id": "8479420", "name": "Tage Thompson", "score": 69.97295878692859, "components": { "Goal model": 99.76744186046511, "SOG model": 99.30232558139535, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 97.44186046511628, "Goalie": 87.05882352941177, "Team H2H": 53.182114882506525, "Goalie H2H": 36.269685039370074 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 6, "goalieH2HShots": 30, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 4 } }, { "id": "8480459", "name": "Pius Suter", "team": "STL", "opponent": "CAR", "position": "C", "currentGP": 9, "currentSOG": 1.3333333333333333, "priorSOG": 1.484375, "currentTOI": 14.12962962962963, "currentFiveTOI": 10.607407407407408, "ppShare": 0.02462121212121212, "rate": 1.1903330713637015, "fifty": 1.0273743812217668, "inputs": { "Player": "Pius Suter", "Player_ID": "8480459", "Team": "STL", "Opponent": "CAR", "Position": "C", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.2785266131434294, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.1302691534571938, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 9, "Prior_GP": 64, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.7709497206703912, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.915458242615947, "Current_PP_SOG60": 55.38461538461539, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 4.25632537242847, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 11.228778935185185, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 10.607407407407408, "Current_PP_Share": 0.02462121212121212, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.26698758536753625, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 65.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2640.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 5, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.016414141414142, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.4882532273104413, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.12351019666360576, "Other_State_SOG": 0.19618055555555555, "Environment_Proxy": 0.85, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.484375, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/st-louis-blues/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:39.392355+00:00", "priorGP": 64, "currentTotalSOG": 12.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.12037037037037036, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.33 SOG/game in 9 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 9 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.563, "currentIXG": 0.17366666666666666, "priorTOI": 15.89375, "priorPPTOI": 1.1013020833333333, "deploymentChange": -1.764120370370371, "ppTOIChange": -0.980931712962963, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021033", "date": "20260312", "team": "STL", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 16.916666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2024020666", "date": "20250110", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 14.533333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020146", "date": "20241028", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 11.466666666666667 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 3, "h2hSOG": 1.6666666666666667, "opponentDefense": { "team": "CAR", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 246.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 22.363636363636363, "mostAllowedRank": 31, "fiveSogAllowed60": 21.75191064079953, "pkSogAllowed60": 32.87187039764359, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 33.09090909090909, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 77.0, "R": 66.0, "D": 59.0, "L": 44.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.0, "L": 4.0, "R": 6.0, "D": 5.363636363636363 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 23.0, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 7, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 22.428571428571427, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 22.363636363636363, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.0, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8481611", "team": "CAR", "name": "Pyotr Kochetkov", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 6, "savePct": 0.8991596638655462, "gaa": 1.9842910293509715, "gsax": 2.2720000000000002, "goalsAllowed": 12.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 14.272, "shotsAgainst": 119.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9828959307519136, "factor": 0.9828959307519136, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T22:32:34.088Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.1560615293217507, "goalHistoryGoals": 41.0, "goalHistoryShots": 245.0, "goalExpected": 0.19178817141792504, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.18850781325302898, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.17451828940696487, "goalProbability": 0.17180596747617055, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.271232193079432, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 9, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.2289266435581123, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.7709497206703912, "Current_PP_SOG60": 55.38461538461539, "Current_5v5_Min": 10.607407407407408, "Current_PP_Share": 0.02462121212121212, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.016414141414142, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.12351019666360576, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.5555555555555556, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9235603264096603, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.85, "Position_Factor": 0.9873314343303702, "Input_GP": 9, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 65.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2640.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.915458242615947, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 4.25632537242847, "Prior_5v5_Min": 12.678645833333333, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.26698758536753625, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.8646946313151299, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.437908496732026, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.8646946313151299, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.85, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 3.7709497206703912, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 55.38461538461539, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 1.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021033", "date": "20260312", "team": "STL", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 16.916666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2024020666", "date": "20250110", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 14.533333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020146", "date": "20241028", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 11.466666666666667 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 118, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 12, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481611", "goalieName": "Pyotr Kochetkov", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8480459", "goals": 1, "sog": 7, "shootingPct": 0.14285714285714285, "gamesWithAttempts": 3, "recordedAttempts": 7, "log": [ { "gameId": "2024020146", "date": "20241028", "season": 2024, "goals": 1, "sog": 4, "attempts": 4 }, { "gameId": "2023020785", "date": "20240206", "season": 2023, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2 }, { "gameId": "2022020460", "date": "20221213", "season": 2022, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481611", "goalieName": "Pyotr Kochetkov", "opponent": "STL", "games": 3, "availableGames": 3, "shotsAgainst": 60.0, "goalsAgainst": 6.0, "savePct": 0.9, "gaa": 2.610587382160986, "gsax": -0.46099999999999985, "log": [ { "gameId": "2024020284", "date": "20241117", "goalieTeam": "CAR", "opponent": "STL", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3598.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.005 }, { "gameId": "2024020084", "date": "20241019", "goalieTeam": "CAR", "opponent": "STL", "shotsAgainst": 19.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3476.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.804 }, { "gameId": "2022020369", "date": "20221201", "goalieTeam": "CAR", "opponent": "STL", "shotsAgainst": 11.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 1200.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 0.73 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.2289266435581123, "adjustedSOG": 1.2289266435581123, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.2289266435581123, "adjustedSOG": 1.2289266435581123, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. 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MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020692", "date": "20260108", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 24.9 }, { "gameId": "2025020502", "date": "20251213", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 22.216666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2024021045", "date": "20250313", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 22.916666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2024020820", "date": "20250130", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 22.2 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 172, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 15, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475660", "goalieName": "Cam Talbot", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8478396", "goals": 0, "sog": 9, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 6, "recordedAttempts": 15, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020970", "date": "20260304", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2 }, { "gameId": "2024021115", "date": "20250322", "season": 2024, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 3 }, { "gameId": "2023020935", "date": "20240227", "season": 2023, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 3 }, { "gameId": "2023020526", "date": "20231223", "season": 2023, "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 2 }, { "gameId": "2021021295", "date": "20220428", "season": 2021, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 3 }, { "gameId": "2021020855", "date": "20220301", "season": 2021, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475660", "goalieName": "Cam Talbot", "opponent": "VGK", "games": 5, "availableGames": 22, "shotsAgainst": 160.0, "goalsAgainst": 16.0, "savePct": 0.9, "gaa": 3.176704169424222, "gsax": 0.6329999999999996, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020970", "date": "20260304", "goalieTeam": "DET", "opponent": "VGK", "shotsAgainst": 25.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3728.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.397 }, { "gameId": "2024021115", "date": "20250322", "goalieTeam": "DET", "opponent": "VGK", "shotsAgainst": 35.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3491.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.784 }, { "gameId": "2023020544", "date": "20231228", "goalieTeam": "LAK", "opponent": "VGK", "shotsAgainst": 32.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3478.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.46 }, { "gameId": "2023020192", "date": "20231108", "goalieTeam": "LAK", "opponent": "VGK", "shotsAgainst": 38.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.55 }, { "gameId": "2023020125", "date": "20231028", "goalieTeam": "LAK", "opponent": "VGK", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3835.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.442 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.2682948704123083, "adjustedSOG": 1.2682948704123083, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.294178439196233, "adjustedSOG": 1.2682948704123083, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.05272036691954122, "goalHistoryGoals": 15.0, "goalHistoryShots": 294.0, "goalExpected": 0.06822956217378456, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.06895762680720514, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.06595397267266645, "goalProbability": 0.06663377105254249, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.06797983798760426 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05771824566299242, "modelSOG": 1.2682948704123083, "historyGames": 162, "seasonGames": { "2024": 80, "2025": 71, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 15.0, "historyShots": 294.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.05102040816326531, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.05272036691954122, "goalieFactor": 1.0106708091071457, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 35.451949574013426, "btb": { "id": "8478396", "name": "Noah Hanifin", "score": 35.451949574013426, "components": { "Goal model": 23.023255813953487, "SOG model": 45.81395348837209, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 19.767441860465116, "Goalie": 13.088235294117647, "Team H2H": 39.44423722491608, "Goalie H2H": 43.54397437608435 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": 9, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 403 } }, { "id": "8479941", "name": "Justin Danforth", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "WSH", "position": "R", "currentGP": 6, "currentSOG": 0.16666666666666666, "priorSOG": 0.5, "currentTOI": 9.155555555555555, "currentFiveTOI": 8.183333333333334, "ppShare": 0.0015608740894901144, "rate": 0.4891345087632439, "fifty": 0.369356335267839, "inputs": { "Player": "Justin Danforth", "Player_ID": "8479941", "Team": "BUF", "Opponent": "WSH", "Position": "R", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 0.4960201206273691, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 0.43810367127626043, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 6, "Prior_GP": 4, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 1.2219959266802445, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.4648700673724737, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 8.325833333333334, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 8.183333333333334, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0015608740894901144, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.026080318900809973, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 3.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1922.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 3, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.493148148148148, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.04898079547185176, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.008574112614175048, "Other_State_SOG": 0.0, "Environment_Proxy": 1.0834850655013406, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 0.5, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/buffalo-sabres/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:39.437777+00:00", "priorGP": 4, "currentTotalSOG": 1.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.008333333333333333, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.17 SOG/game in 6 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 6 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.261, "currentIXG": 0.043500000000000004, "priorTOI": 11.704166666666667, "priorPPTOI": 0.125, "deploymentChange": -2.5486111111111125, "ppTOIChange": -0.11666666666666667, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2024021281", "date": "20250413", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 13.25 }, { "gameId": "2024021270", "date": "20250412", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 15.15 }, { "gameId": "2024020177", "date": "20241102", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 13.816666666666666 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 3, "h2hSOG": 1.6666666666666667, "opponentDefense": { "team": "WSH", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 263.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 29.22222222222222, "mostAllowedRank": 7, "fiveSogAllowed60": 28.540383918869974, "pkSogAllowed60": 52.820345614607106, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.111111111111114, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "L": 48.0, "D": 68.0, "C": 72.0, "R": 75.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 8.0, "L": 5.333333333333333, "R": 8.333333333333334, "D": 7.555555555555555 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 29.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27.5, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 29.22222222222222, "oppPosSogAllowed": 8.333333333333334, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8479292", "team": "WSH", "name": "Charlie Lindgren", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 2, "savePct": 0.896551724137931, "gaa": 3.061224489795918, "gsax": 0.2989999999999995, "goalsAllowed": 6.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 6.2989999999999995, "shotsAgainst": 58.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.99868053226692, "factor": 0.99868053226692, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T14:45:41.433Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.11092798322343399, "goalHistoryGoals": 9.0, "goalHistoryShots": 97.0, "goalExpected": 0.020835972848801686, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.02080848045494036, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.020620403759765194, "goalProbability": 0.020593477900039136, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.0026925859726058265, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 6, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 0.18783333333333335, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 1.2219959266802445, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 8.183333333333334, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0015608740894901144, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.493148148148148, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.008574112614175048, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.053751909733539, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0558974457897532, "Position_Factor": 1.05, "Input_GP": 6, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 3.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1922.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.4648700673724737, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 8.658333333333333, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.026080318900809973, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.15, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.382352941176471, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0558974457897532, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 1.2219959266802445, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 1.6666666666666667 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2024021281", "date": "20250413", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 13.25 }, { "gameId": "2024021270", "date": "20250412", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 15.15 }, { "gameId": "2024020177", "date": "20241102", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 13.816666666666666 } ], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff latest reported chart; October 21 final lineup pending", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479292", "goalieName": "Charlie Lindgren", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8479941", "goals": 1, "sog": 7, "shootingPct": 0.14285714285714285, "gamesWithAttempts": 3, "recordedAttempts": 11, "log": [ { "gameId": "2023020499", "date": "20231221", "season": 2023, "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 4 }, { "gameId": "2023020263", "date": "20231118", "season": 2023, "goals": 1, "sog": 3, "attempts": 5 }, { "gameId": "2023020166", "date": "20231104", "season": 2023, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479292", "goalieName": "Charlie Lindgren", "opponent": "BUF", "games": 5, "availableGames": 8, "shotsAgainst": 128.0, "goalsAgainst": 16.0, "savePct": 0.875, "gaa": 3.275891486094523, "gsax": -2.283, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021028", "date": "20260312", "goalieTeam": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.161 }, { "gameId": "2025020186", "date": "20251101", "goalieTeam": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3892.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.677 }, { "gameId": "2024020637", "date": "20250106", "goalieTeam": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "shotsAgainst": 27.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3900.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.647 }, { "gameId": "2023021255", "date": "20240411", "goalieTeam": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "shotsAgainst": 16.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3458.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.149 }, { "gameId": "2023021189", "date": "20240402", "goalieTeam": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "shotsAgainst": 31.0, "goalsAgainst": 6.0, "seconds": 2733.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.083 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.18783333333333335, "adjustedSOG": 0.18783333333333335, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.19166666666666668, "adjustedSOG": 0.18783333333333335, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.11092798322343399, "goalHistoryGoals": 9.0, "goalHistoryShots": 97.0, "goalExpected": 0.021261196784491516, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.021233143321367717, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.021036770875307205, "goalProbability": 0.021009307181235334, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.0027463694071871297 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12852812695016494, "modelSOG": 0.18783333333333335, "historyGames": 71, "seasonGames": { "2024": 61, "2025": 4, "2026": 6 }, "historyGoals": 9.0, "historyShots": 97.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.09278350515463918, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.11092798322343399, "goalieFactor": 0.99868053226692, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8484386", "name": "Dmitri Simashev", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "TBL", "position": "D", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 1.0, "priorSOG": 0.9285714285714286, "currentTOI": 15.023333333333332, "currentFiveTOI": 14.245, "ppShare": 0.004818503051718599, "rate": 0.8330012234341868, "fifty": 0.8560674872461662, "inputs": { "Player": "Dmitri Simashev", "Player_ID": "8484386", "Team": "UTA", "Opponent": "TBL", "Position": "D", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.03016186789199, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.0591159893671607, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 10, "Prior_GP": 28, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.212004212004212, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.8194727821757937, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 14.347571428571428, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 14.245, "Current_PP_Share": 0.004818503051718599, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.003374736605923441, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 15.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3113.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 6, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.821018518518519, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.02114196501239513, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.023230092443873366, "Other_State_SOG": 0.0, "Environment_Proxy": 0.8844868901771036, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 0.9285714285714286, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/utah-mammoth/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:39.458515+00:00", "priorGP": 28, "currentTotalSOG": 10.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.025, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.00 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.9, "currentIXG": 0.09, "priorTOI": 15.107738095238094, "priorPPTOI": 0.016071428571428573, "deploymentChange": -0.08440476190476254, "ppTOIChange": 0.008928571428571428, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020194", "date": "20251102", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 17.433333333333334 } ], "h2hGames": 1, "h2hAvailableGames": 1, "h2hSOG": 0.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "TBL", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 218.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 24.22222222222222, "mostAllowedRank": 29, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.310572168589594, "pkSogAllowed60": 47.9002079002079, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 36.333333333333336, "positionUnassignedSOG": 1.0, "positionTotals": { "L": 36.0, "R": 49.0, "D": 66.0, "C": 66.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.333333333333333, "L": 4.0, "R": 5.444444444444445, "D": 7.333333333333333 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 24.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.25, "positionSourceDifference": 1.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 24.22222222222222, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.333333333333333, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8483710", "team": "TBL", "name": "Dennis Hildeby", "status": "Unconfirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 2, "savePct": 0.92, "gaa": 2.0089285714285716, "gsax": 0.8719999999999999, "goalsAllowed": 4.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.872, "shotsAgainst": 50.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9926942170737747, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Starter remains unconfirmed per Daily Faceoff; no Model Goal adjustment.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": null }, "goalShootingPct": 0.042441733975143454, "goalHistoryGoals": 0.0, "goalHistoryShots": 36.0, "goalExpected": 0.04240596177006981, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.04240596177006981, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.041519404898346816, "goalProbability": 0.041519404898346816, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 0.9991571455328713, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.212004212004212, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 14.245, "Current_PP_Share": 0.004818503051718599, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.821018518518519, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.023230092443873366, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9588832837562793, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0032616490671127, "Position_Factor": 1.0144938104754524, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 15.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3113.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.8194727821757937, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 14.586904761904762, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.003374736605923441, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9991571455328714, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.34640522875817, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9991571455328714, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0032616490671127, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 4.212004212004212, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 0.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020194", "date": "20251102", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 17.433333333333334 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 36, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8483710", "goalieName": "Dennis Hildeby", "starterStatus": "Unconfirmed", "shooterId": "8484386", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8483710", "goalieName": "Dennis Hildeby", "opponent": "UTA", "games": 1, "availableGames": 1, "shotsAgainst": 41.0, "goalsAgainst": 6.0, "savePct": 0.8536585365853658, "gaa": 6.0, "gsax": -1.2770000000000001, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020733", "date": "20260113", "goalieTeam": "TOR", "opponent": "UTA", "shotsAgainst": 41.0, "goalsAgainst": 6.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.723 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.9991571455328713, "adjustedSOG": 0.9991571455328713, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.9991571455328713, "adjustedSOG": 0.9991571455328713, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.042441733975143454, "goalHistoryGoals": 0.0, "goalHistoryShots": 36.0, "goalExpected": 0.04240596177006981, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.04240596177006981, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.041519404898346816, "goalProbability": 0.041519404898346816, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.0577207582061951, "modelSOG": 0.9991571455328713, "historyGames": 38, "seasonGames": { "2025": 28, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 0.0, "historyShots": 36.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.0, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.042441733975143454, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": 38.382146346579525, "btb": { "id": "8484386", "name": "Dmitri Simashev", "score": 38.382146346579525, "components": { "Goal model": 12.55813953488372, "SOG model": 28.25581395348837, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 20.930232558139537, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 49.098029907429385, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Unconfirmed", "h2hGames": 1, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 370 } }, { "id": "8475455", "name": "Brenden Dillon", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "LAK", "position": "D", "currentGP": 5, "currentSOG": 0.2, "priorSOG": 0.6707317073170732, "currentTOI": 14.433333333333334, "currentFiveTOI": 12.596666666666668, "ppShare": 0.0, "rate": 0.5624295282813307, "fifty": 0.4160487987468896, "inputs": { "Player": "Brenden Dillon", "Player_ID": "8475455", "Team": "NJD", "Opponent": "LAK", "Position": "D", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 0.5406029194176243, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 0.41745066287130805, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 5, "Prior_GP": 82, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 0.9526329716856311, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 2.6153805510791748, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 13.433886178861787, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 12.596666666666668, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.004768842167045728, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1878.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 4, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.972354497354498, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.007113712138945078, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.0, "Other_State_SOG": 0.0, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9908219918860978, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 0.6707317073170732, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-jersey-devils/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:39.479640+00:00", "priorGP": 82, "currentTotalSOG": 1.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.0, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.20 SOG/game in 5 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 5 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.08800000000000001, "currentIXG": 0.0176, "priorTOI": 17.997560975609755, "priorPPTOI": 0.01849593495934959, "deploymentChange": -3.564227642276421, "ppTOIChange": -0.01849593495934959, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021050", "date": "20260314", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 16.083333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2025020191", "date": "20251101", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 23.016666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020602", "date": "20250101", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 13.65 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 0.3333333333333333, "opponentDefense": { "team": "LAK", "games": 7, "sogAllowedTotal": 193.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.571428571428573, "mostAllowedRank": 14, "fiveSogAllowed60": 25.227874154660395, "pkSogAllowed60": 57.61396702230844, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 39.142857142857146, "positionUnassignedSOG": 1.0, "positionTotals": { "C": 86.0, "D": 47.0, "R": 28.0, "L": 31.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 12.285714285714286, "L": 4.428571428571429, "R": 4.0, "D": 6.714285714285714 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 27.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 29.5, "positionSourceDifference": 1.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.571428571428573, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.714285714285714, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8476341", "team": "LAK", "name": "Anton Forsberg", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 3, "savePct": 0.8833333333333333, "gaa": 2.6313041662315966, "gsax": -2.1049999999999995, "goalsAllowed": 7.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.8950000000000005, "shotsAgainst": 60.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0218332511814823, "factor": 1.0218332511814823, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T19:00:24.293Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.052792092943863965, "goalHistoryGoals": 5.0, "goalHistoryShots": 104.0, "goalExpected": 0.01018433185103995, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.010406688926459275, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.01013264715027104, "goalProbability": 0.010352726690875494, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.022007954060445332, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 5, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 0.19291396273812017, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 0.9526329716856311, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 12.596666666666668, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.972354497354498, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.0, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9946407827573338, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.085978140946376, "Position_Factor": 0.98999544178116, "Input_GP": 5, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1878.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 2.6153805510791748, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 15.38739837398374, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.004768842167045728, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9645698136906008, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.34640522875817, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9645698136906008, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.085978140946376, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 0.9526329716856311, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021050", "date": "20260314", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 16.083333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2025020191", "date": "20251101", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 23.016666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020602", "date": "20250101", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 13.65 }, { "gameId": "2024020461", "date": "20241212", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 17.166666666666668 } ], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 84, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476341", "goalieName": "Anton Forsberg", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8475455", "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 3, "recordedAttempts": 6, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021050", "date": "20260314", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2024020062", "date": "20241017", "season": 2024, "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 4 }, { "gameId": "2022020738", "date": "20230121", "season": 2022, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476341", "goalieName": "Anton Forsberg", "opponent": "NJD", "games": 5, "availableGames": 11, "shotsAgainst": 115.0, "goalsAgainst": 15.0, "savePct": 0.8695652173913043, "gaa": 4.18280402788536, "gsax": -4.362, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021050", "date": "20260314", "goalieTeam": "LAK", "opponent": "NJD", "shotsAgainst": 27.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3466.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.948 }, { "gameId": "2024020737", "date": "20250119", "goalieTeam": "OTT", "opponent": "NJD", "shotsAgainst": 26.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.295 }, { "gameId": "2024020062", "date": "20241017", "goalieTeam": "OTT", "opponent": "NJD", "shotsAgainst": 35.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3470.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.298 }, { "gameId": "2023021224", "date": "20240406", "goalieTeam": "OTT", "opponent": "NJD", "shotsAgainst": 9.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 994.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 0.874 }, { "gameId": "2022020274", "date": "20221119", "goalieTeam": "OTT", "opponent": "NJD", "shotsAgainst": 18.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 1380.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.223 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.19291396273812017, "adjustedSOG": 0.19291396273812017, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.19291396273812017, "adjustedSOG": 0.19291396273812017, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.052792092943863965, "goalHistoryGoals": 5.0, "goalHistoryShots": 104.0, "goalExpected": 0.01018433185103995, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.01018433185103995, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.01013264715027104, "goalProbability": 0.01013264715027104, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.057695869605482494, "modelSOG": 0.19291396273812017, "historyGames": 169, "seasonGames": { "2024": 82, "2025": 82, "2026": 5 }, "historyGoals": 5.0, "historyShots": 104.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.04807692307692308, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.052792092943863965, "goalieFactor": 1.0218332511814823, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8480990", "name": "Declan Chisholm", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "LAK", "position": "D", "currentGP": 9, "currentSOG": 0.4444444444444444, "priorSOG": 0.7692307692307693, "currentTOI": 14.746296296296297, "currentFiveTOI": 14.137037037037038, "ppShare": 0.0474439132033836, "rate": 0.7643938397405148, "fifty": 0.6626786050755105, "inputs": { "Player": "Declan Chisholm", "Player_ID": "8480990", "Team": "NJD", "Opponent": "LAK", "Position": "D", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 0.720800357304512, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 0.6451751960323168, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 9, "Prior_GP": 26, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 1.8862981399004455, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.33593445181428, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 13.83900284900285, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 14.137037037037038, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0474439132033836, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.07163370875318258, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 129.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2719.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 4, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.972354497354498, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.2719920267965795, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.2359079551889409, "Other_State_SOG": 0.03461538461538462, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9908219918860978, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 0.7692307692307693, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-jersey-devils/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:39.497240+00:00", "priorGP": 26, "currentTotalSOG": 4.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.23888888888888887, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.44 SOG/game in 9 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 9 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.08, "currentIXG": 0.008888888888888889, "priorTOI": 13.725641025641027, "priorPPTOI": 0.31346153846153846, "deploymentChange": 1.0206552706552703, "ppTOIChange": -0.07457264957264959, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2024021077", "date": "20250317", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 17.233333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020434", "date": "20241207", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 17.666666666666668 } ], "h2hGames": 2, "h2hAvailableGames": 2, "h2hSOG": 0.5, "opponentDefense": { "team": "LAK", "games": 7, "sogAllowedTotal": 193.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.571428571428573, "mostAllowedRank": 14, "fiveSogAllowed60": 25.227874154660395, "pkSogAllowed60": 57.61396702230844, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 39.142857142857146, "positionUnassignedSOG": 1.0, "positionTotals": { "C": 86.0, "D": 47.0, "R": 28.0, "L": 31.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 12.285714285714286, "L": 4.428571428571429, "R": 4.0, "D": 6.714285714285714 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 27.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 29.5, "positionSourceDifference": 1.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.571428571428573, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.714285714285714, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8476341", "team": "LAK", "name": "Anton Forsberg", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 3, "savePct": 0.8833333333333333, "gaa": 2.6313041662315966, "gsax": -2.1049999999999995, "goalsAllowed": 7.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.8950000000000005, "shotsAgainst": 60.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0218332511814823, "factor": 1.0218332511814823, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T19:00:24.293Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.05062400315464564, "goalHistoryGoals": 4.0, "goalHistoryShots": 93.0, "goalExpected": 0.02170239346273286, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.022176227270444066, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.021468590934324974, "goalProbability": 0.021932142366004617, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0463551431679643, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 9, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 0.4286976949736004, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 1.8862981399004455, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 14.137037037037038, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0474439132033836, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.972354497354498, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.2359079551889409, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9946407827573338, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.085978140946376, "Position_Factor": 0.98999544178116, "Input_GP": 9, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 129.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2719.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.33593445181428, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 13.143589743589745, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.07163370875318258, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9645698136906008, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.34640522875817, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9645698136906008, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.085978140946376, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 1.8862981399004455, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2024021077", "date": "20250317", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 17.233333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020434", "date": "20241207", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 17.666666666666668 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 28, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476341", "goalieName": "Anton Forsberg", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8480990", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476341", "goalieName": "Anton Forsberg", "opponent": "NJD", "games": 5, "availableGames": 11, "shotsAgainst": 115.0, "goalsAgainst": 15.0, "savePct": 0.8695652173913043, "gaa": 4.18280402788536, "gsax": -4.362, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021050", "date": "20260314", "goalieTeam": "LAK", "opponent": "NJD", "shotsAgainst": 27.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3466.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.948 }, { "gameId": "2024020737", "date": "20250119", "goalieTeam": "OTT", "opponent": "NJD", "shotsAgainst": 26.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.295 }, { "gameId": "2024020062", "date": "20241017", "goalieTeam": "OTT", "opponent": "NJD", "shotsAgainst": 35.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3470.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.298 }, { "gameId": "2023021224", "date": "20240406", "goalieTeam": "OTT", "opponent": "NJD", "shotsAgainst": 9.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 994.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 0.874 }, { "gameId": "2022020274", "date": "20221119", "goalieTeam": "OTT", "opponent": "NJD", "shotsAgainst": 18.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 1380.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.223 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.4286976949736004, "adjustedSOG": 0.4286976949736004, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.4286976949736004, "adjustedSOG": 0.4286976949736004, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.05062400315464564, "goalHistoryGoals": 4.0, "goalHistoryShots": 93.0, "goalExpected": 0.02170239346273286, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.02170239346273286, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.021468590934324974, "goalProbability": 0.021468590934324974, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05770432608846608, "modelSOG": 0.4286976949736004, "historyGames": 101, "seasonGames": { "2024": 66, "2025": 26, "2026": 9 }, "historyGoals": 4.0, "historyShots": 93.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.043010752688172046, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.05062400315464564, "goalieFactor": 1.0218332511814823, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 36.09261964546581, "btb": { "id": "8480990", "name": "Declan Chisholm", "score": 36.09261964546581, "components": { "Goal model": 3.7209302325581395, "SOG model": 5.348837209302325, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 0.46511627906976744, "Goalie": 76.61764705882354, "Team H2H": 49.15143603133159, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 2, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 399 } }, { "id": "8484153", "name": "Leo Carlsson", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "PHI", "position": "C", "currentGP": 9, "currentSOG": 1.2222222222222223, "priorSOG": 2.757142857142857, "currentTOI": 19.67037037037037, "currentFiveTOI": 14.233333333333333, "ppShare": 0.7942718838241226, "rate": 3.123410903240828, "fifty": 2.5512205954457805, "inputs": { "Player": "Leo Carlsson", "Player_ID": "8484153", "Team": "ANA", "Opponent": "PHI", "Position": "C", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 2.791908470449454, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 2.1914276101596024, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 9, "Prior_GP": 70, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.215456674473068, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 7.786766584348122, "Current_PP_SOG60": 1.8283392585068563, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 12.771618625277162, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 14.157261904761905, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 14.233333333333333, "Current_PP_Share": 0.7942718838241226, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.6152059780547368, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1969.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2479.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 5, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.388425925925926, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 3.9904102003027764, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 4.279875211031928, "Other_State_SOG": 0.2425396825396825, "Environment_Proxy": 1.15, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 2.757142857142857, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/anaheim-ducks/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:39.514778+00:00", "priorGP": 70, "currentTotalSOG": 11.0, "currentPPTOI": 3.646296296296297, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.22 SOG/game in 9 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 9 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.484, "currentIXG": 0.1648888888888889, "priorTOI": 19.150238095238095, "priorPPTOI": 3.2214285714285715, "deploymentChange": 0.5201322751322763, "ppTOIChange": 0.4248677248677253, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021082", "date": "20260318", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 18.366666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020670", "date": "20260106", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 18.033333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2024020675", "date": "20250111", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 15.65 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 1.3333333333333333, "opponentDefense": { "team": "PHI", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 383.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 31.916666666666668, "mostAllowedRank": 2, "fiveSogAllowed60": 31.042564889030356, "pkSogAllowed60": 46.879209699146834, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.75, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 113.0, "C": 130.0, "R": 73.0, "L": 67.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.833333333333334, "L": 5.583333333333333, "R": 6.083333333333333, "D": 9.416666666666666 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 27.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.833333333333332, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 31.916666666666668, "oppPosSogAllowed": 10.833333333333334, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8479361", "team": "PHI", "name": "Joseph Woll", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 6, "savePct": 0.9166666666666666, "gaa": 2.640143007746253, "gsax": 4.5710000000000015, "goalsAllowed": 16.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 20.571, "shotsAgainst": 192.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9655996195755495, "factor": 0.9655996195755495, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T14:50:13.988Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.15272887205430738, "goalHistoryGoals": 51.0, "goalHistoryShots": 318.0, "goalExpected": 0.19773133103310028, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.19092929802372868, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.17940970933021477, "goalProbability": 0.17380900057728987, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.5600708752924899, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 9, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.2946558720265473, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.215456674473068, "Current_PP_SOG60": 1.8283392585068563, "Current_5v5_Min": 14.233333333333333, "Current_PP_Share": 0.7942718838241226, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.388425925925926, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 4.279875211031928, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.1111111111111111, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.1165260841882552, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9915761915723407, "Position_Factor": 0.9972034521823692, "Input_GP": 9, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1969.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2479.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 7.786766584348122, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 12.771618625277162, "Prior_5v5_Min": 13.979761904761906, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.6152059780547368, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.080647192143037, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.437908496732026, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.080647192143037, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9915761915723407, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 4.215456674473068, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 1.8283392585068563, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021082", "date": "20260318", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 18.366666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020670", "date": "20260106", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 18.033333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2024020675", "date": "20250111", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 15.65 }, { "gameId": "2024020568", "date": "20241228", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 16.383333333333333 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "ppAssignmentSourceDate": "2026-10-13T16:34:52.608Z", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 187, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 64, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479361", "goalieName": "Joseph Woll", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8484153", "goals": 1, "sog": 8, "shootingPct": 0.125, "gamesWithAttempts": 2, "recordedAttempts": 11, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021029", "date": "20260312", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 4, "attempts": 5 }, { "gameId": "2024021176", "date": "20250330", "season": 2024, "goals": 1, "sog": 4, "attempts": 6 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479361", "goalieName": "Joseph Woll", "opponent": "ANA", "games": 3, "availableGames": 3, "shotsAgainst": 91.0, "goalsAgainst": 7.0, "savePct": 0.9230769230769231, "gaa": 2.6359832635983262, "gsax": 2.575, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021029", "date": "20260312", "goalieTeam": "TOR", "opponent": "ANA", "shotsAgainst": 40.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3567.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.449 }, { "gameId": "2024021176", "date": "20250330", "goalieTeam": "TOR", "opponent": "ANA", "shotsAgainst": 31.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3593.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.338 }, { "gameId": "2024020459", "date": "20241212", "goalieTeam": "TOR", "opponent": "ANA", "shotsAgainst": 20.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 2400.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.788 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.2946558720265473, "adjustedSOG": 1.2946558720265473, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.3210774204352524, "adjustedSOG": 1.2946558720265473, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.15272887205430738, "goalHistoryGoals": 51.0, "goalHistoryShots": 318.0, "goalExpected": 0.2017666643194901, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.19482581430992726, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.1827143924113934, "goalProbability": 0.17702200343785648, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.569238897353691 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1284066851870048, "modelSOG": 1.2946558720265473, "historyGames": 155, "seasonGames": { "2024": 76, "2025": 70, "2026": 9 }, "historyGoals": 51.0, "historyShots": 318.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.16037735849056603, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.15272887205430738, "goalieFactor": 0.9655996195755495, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 52.6767579456574, "btb": { "id": "8484153", "name": "Leo Carlsson", "score": 52.6767579456574, "components": { "Goal model": 66.74418604651163, "SOG model": 47.44186046511628, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 53.25581395348837, "Goalie": 28.970588235294116, "Team H2H": 57.49720253636703, "Goalie H2H": 51.086071137659516 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": 8, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 176 } }, { "id": "8482073", "name": "Braden Schneider", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "OTT", "position": "D", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 1.5454545454545454, "priorSOG": 1.2439024390243902, "currentTOI": 17.59090909090909, "currentFiveTOI": 14.633333333333333, "ppShare": 0.017427122940430924, "rate": 1.1074681672907212, "fifty": 1.2057796135412535, "inputs": { "Player": "Braden Schneider", "Player_ID": "8482073", "Team": "NYR", "Opponent": "OTT", "Position": "D", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.0334970253659543, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 0.9921067092884723, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 11, "Prior_GP": 82, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.9639676951749845, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.009519678300526, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 4.102564102564102, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 15.444369918699184, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 14.633333333333333, "Current_PP_Share": 0.017427122940430924, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.09735180891309893, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 55.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3156.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 7, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.145909090909091, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.21306394080799587, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.08967839036755387, "Other_State_SOG": 0.06396895787139689, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9343896732646498, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.2439024390243902, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-york-rangers/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:39.532474+00:00", "priorGP": 82, "currentTotalSOG": 17.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.08333333333333333, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.55 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.539, "currentIXG": 0.049, "priorTOI": 20.442276422764227, "priorPPTOI": 0.3567073170731707, "deploymentChange": -2.851367331855137, "ppTOIChange": -0.2733739837398374, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021119", "date": "20260323", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 20.816666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020737", "date": "20260114", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 22.3 }, { "gameId": "2025020427", "date": "20251204", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 24.083333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2024021003", "date": "20250308", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 20.65 }, { "gameId": "2024020750", "date": "20250121", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 18.483333333333334 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 6, "h2hSOG": 1.2, "opponentDefense": { "team": "OTT", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 255.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 25.5, "mostAllowedRank": 25, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.477120373069077, "pkSogAllowed60": 46.82395644283122, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 38.7, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 67.0, "C": 98.0, "R": 48.0, "L": 42.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.8, "L": 4.2, "R": 4.8, "D": 6.7 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 24.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 22.6, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 25.5, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.7, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8477992", "team": "OTT", "name": "Jonas Johansson", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 0, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "goalsAllowed": null, "xGoalsAgainst": null, "shotsAgainst": null, "scenarioFactor": 1, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; no matching goalie statistics in this snapshot, so the goalie factor remains neutral.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T15:15:50.280Z", "idResolution": "Exact goalie name mapped to one unique MoneyPuck player ID" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.04387692615208385, "goalHistoryGoals": 8.0, "goalHistoryShots": 214.0, "goalExpected": 0.06370197212258488, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.06370197212258488, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.06171540716902617, "goalProbability": 0.06171540716902617, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.4518330637334194, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.9639676951749845, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 14.633333333333333, "Current_PP_Share": 0.017427122940430924, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.145909090909091, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.08967839036755387, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.09090909090909091, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9604171757553249, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9920036605974645, "Position_Factor": 0.9967592108017584, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 55.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3156.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.009519678300526, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 4.102564102564102, "Prior_5v5_Min": 17.336788617886178, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.09735180891309893, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9560053380782918, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.34640522875817, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9560053380782918, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9920036605974645, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.9639676951749845, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 1.6666666666666667 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 0.6666666666666666 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021119", "date": "20260323", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 20.816666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020737", "date": "20260114", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 22.3 }, { "gameId": "2025020427", "date": "20251204", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 24.083333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2024021003", "date": "20250308", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 20.65 }, { "gameId": "2024020750", "date": "20250121", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 18.483333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020170", "date": "20241101", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 17.85 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 148, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477992", "goalieName": "Jonas Johansson", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8482073", "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 1, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020391", "date": "20251129", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 1 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477992", "goalieName": "Jonas Johansson", "opponent": "NYR", "games": 4, "availableGames": 4, "shotsAgainst": 43.0, "goalsAgainst": 6.0, "savePct": 0.8604651162790697, "gaa": 2.615328732292045, "gsax": -1.567, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020391", "date": "20251129", "goalieTeam": "TBL", "opponent": "NYR", "shotsAgainst": 13.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.688 }, { "gameId": "2025020265", "date": "20251112", "goalieTeam": "TBL", "opponent": "NYR", "shotsAgainst": 7.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 993.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 0.748 }, { "gameId": "2024021310", "date": "20250417", "goalieTeam": "TBL", "opponent": "NYR", "shotsAgainst": 22.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3573.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.983 }, { "gameId": "2021020399", "date": "20211208", "goalieTeam": "COL", "opponent": "NYR", "shotsAgainst": 1.0, "goalsAgainst": 0.0, "seconds": 93.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 0.014 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.4518330637334194, "adjustedSOG": 1.4518330637334194, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.4814623099320605, "adjustedSOG": 1.4518330637334194, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.04387692615208385, "goalHistoryGoals": 8.0, "goalHistoryShots": 214.0, "goalExpected": 0.06500201236998457, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.06500201236998457, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.06293442234713599, "goalProbability": 0.06293442234713599, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05777354811754329, "modelSOG": 1.4518330637334194, "historyGames": 173, "seasonGames": { "2024": 80, "2025": 82, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 8.0, "historyShots": 214.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.037383177570093455, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.04387692615208385, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 37.5644734045783, "btb": { "id": "8482073", "name": "Braden Schneider", "score": 37.5644734045783, "components": { "Goal model": 21.86046511627907, "SOG model": 55.116279069767444, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 5.5813953488372094, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 32.522845953002616, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 6, "goalieH2HShots": 0, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 384 } }, { "id": "8477015", "name": "Connor Brown", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "LAK", "position": "R", "currentGP": 1, "currentSOG": 0.0, "priorSOG": 1.5466666666666666, "currentTOI": 13.9, "currentFiveTOI": 11.283333333333333, "ppShare": 0.0, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-jersey-devils/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:39.534196+00:00", "priorGP": 75, "currentTotalSOG": 0.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.0, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.00 SOG/game in 1 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 1 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.0, "currentIXG": 0.0, "priorTOI": 17.55088888888889, "priorPPTOI": 1.4257777777777778, "deploymentChange": -3.650888888888888, "ppTOIChange": -1.4257777777777778, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021050", "date": "20260314", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 16.35 }, { "gameId": "2024021289", "date": "20250414", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 16.8 }, { "gameId": "2024021213", "date": "20250405", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 16.316666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020691", "date": "20250113", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 13.333333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020569", "date": "20241228", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 11.866666666666667 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 5, "h2hSOG": 1.2, "opponentDefense": { "team": "LAK", "games": 7, "sogAllowedTotal": 193.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.571428571428573, "mostAllowedRank": 14, "fiveSogAllowed60": 25.227874154660395, "pkSogAllowed60": 57.61396702230844, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 39.142857142857146, "positionUnassignedSOG": 1.0, "positionTotals": { "C": 86.0, "D": 47.0, "R": 28.0, "L": 31.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 12.285714285714286, "L": 4.428571428571429, "R": 4.0, "D": 6.714285714285714 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 27.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 29.5, "positionSourceDifference": 1.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.571428571428573, "oppPosSogAllowed": 4.0, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8476341", "team": "LAK", "name": "Anton Forsberg", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 3, "savePct": 0.8833333333333333, "gaa": 2.6313041662315966, "gsax": -2.1049999999999995, "goalsAllowed": 7.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.8950000000000005, "shotsAgainst": 60.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0218332511814823, "factor": 1.0218332511814823, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T19:00:24.293Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.12934945783149662, "goalHistoryGoals": 31.0, "goalHistoryShots": 239.0, "goalExpected": 0.0, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.0, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.0, "goalProbability": 0.0, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": null, "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 1, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 0.0, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 11.283333333333333, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.972354497354498, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.0, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9946407827573338, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.085978140946376, "Position_Factor": 0.9726288799729524, "Input_GP": 1, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 120.0, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.8942462230793957, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.382352941176471, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.8942462230793957, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.085978140946376, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 0, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 4, "sogPerGame": 1.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 2.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021050", "date": "20260314", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 16.35 }, { "gameId": "2024021289", "date": "20250414", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 16.8 }, { "gameId": "2024021213", "date": "20250405", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 16.316666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020691", "date": "20250113", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 13.333333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020569", "date": "20241228", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 11.866666666666667 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476341", "goalieName": "Anton Forsberg", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8477015", "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 2, "recordedAttempts": 4, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021050", "date": "20260314", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 3 }, { "gameId": "2023020615", "date": "20240106", "season": 2023, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476341", "goalieName": "Anton Forsberg", "opponent": "NJD", "games": 5, "availableGames": 11, "shotsAgainst": 115.0, "goalsAgainst": 15.0, "savePct": 0.8695652173913043, "gaa": 4.18280402788536, "gsax": -4.362, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021050", "date": "20260314", "goalieTeam": "LAK", "opponent": "NJD", "shotsAgainst": 27.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3466.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.948 }, { "gameId": "2024020737", "date": "20250119", "goalieTeam": "OTT", "opponent": "NJD", "shotsAgainst": 26.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.295 }, { "gameId": "2024020062", "date": "20241017", "goalieTeam": "OTT", "opponent": "NJD", "shotsAgainst": 35.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3470.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.298 }, { "gameId": "2023021224", "date": "20240406", "goalieTeam": "OTT", "opponent": "NJD", "shotsAgainst": 9.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 994.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 0.874 }, { "gameId": "2022020274", "date": "20221119", "goalieTeam": "OTT", "opponent": "NJD", "shotsAgainst": 18.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 1380.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.223 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.0, "adjustedSOG": 0.0, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.0, "adjustedSOG": 0.0, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.12934945783149662, "goalHistoryGoals": 31.0, "goalHistoryShots": 239.0, "goalExpected": 0.0, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.0, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.0, "goalProbability": 0.0, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12849466204877352, "modelSOG": 0.0, "historyGames": 158, "seasonGames": { "2024": 82, "2025": 75, "2026": 1 }, "historyGoals": 31.0, "historyShots": 239.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.1297071129707113, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.12934945783149662, "goalieFactor": 1.0218332511814823, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 40.39326387840242, "btb": { "id": "8477015", "name": "Connor Brown", "score": 40.39326387840242, "components": { "Goal model": 0.6976744186046512, "SOG model": 0.6976744186046512, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 51.395348837209305, "Goalie": 76.61764705882354, "Team H2H": 50.0, "Goalie H2H": 49.17545684147972 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Team H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 5, "goalieH2HShots": 3, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 345 } }, { "id": "8478424", "name": "Jansen Harkins", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "UTA", "position": "C", "currentGP": 1, "currentSOG": 1.0, "priorSOG": 0.8409090909090909, "currentTOI": 10.916666666666666, "currentFiveTOI": 10.016666666666667, "ppShare": 0.003289473684210526, "rate": 0.7771523560479853, "fifty": 0.8179264718534561, "inputs": { "Player": "Jansen Harkins", "Player_ID": "8478424", "Team": "TBL", "Opponent": "UTA", "Position": "C", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 0.8094756444412138, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 0.8522742166648394, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 1, "Prior_GP": 44, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.990016638935108, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.480804838908777, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 9.773371212121212, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 10.016666666666667, "Current_PP_Share": 0.003289473684210526, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.04304127021766409, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 608.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 1, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.626018518518518, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.07038493025177815, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.01521716617933723, "Other_State_SOG": 0.0, "Environment_Proxy": 0.85, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 0.8409090909090909, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:39.551069+00:00", "priorGP": 44.0, "currentTotalSOG": 1.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.03333333333333333, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.00 SOG/game in 1 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 1 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.195, "currentIXG": 0.195, "priorTOI": 9.590530303030304, "priorPPTOI": 0.22537878787878787, "deploymentChange": 1.326136363636362, "ppTOIChange": -0.19204545454545455, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021098", "date": "20260320", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 8.3 }, { "gameId": "2025020424", "date": "20251203", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 8.9 }, { "gameId": "2025020306", "date": "20251117", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 11.35 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 0.3333333333333333, "opponentDefense": { "team": "UTA", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 225.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 22.5, "mostAllowedRank": 30, "fiveSogAllowed60": 21.06050814598143, "pkSogAllowed60": 53.47313237221494, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 35.6, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 58.0, "C": 87.0, "R": 52.0, "L": 28.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 8.7, "L": 2.8, "R": 5.2, "D": 5.8 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 22.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 20.25, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 22.5, "oppPosSogAllowed": 8.7, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8478872", "team": "UTA", "name": "Karel Vejmelka", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 8, "savePct": 0.8793103448275862, "gaa": 2.8927833473635878, "gsax": -2.0919999999999987, "goalsAllowed": 21.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 18.908, "shotsAgainst": 174.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0222659253207917, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Likely starter per Daily Faceoff; no Model Goal adjustment until confirmed.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T17:11:59.953Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.09548252760317404, "goalHistoryGoals": 5.0, "goalHistoryShots": 87.0, "goalExpected": 0.07953694549344399, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.07953694549344399, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.07645610144675523, "goalProbability": 0.07645610144675523, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 1, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 0.8330000000000002, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.990016638935108, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 10.016666666666667, "Current_PP_Share": 0.003289473684210526, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.626018518518518, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.01521716617933723, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9114659361351877, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.05376529706562, "Position_Factor": 1.0144771468144045, "Input_GP": 1, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 608.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.480804838908777, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 9.205681818181818, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.04304127021766409, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9609072022160665, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.437908496732026, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.8198315713406643, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.05376529706562, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.990016638935108, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 1.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 0.3333333333333333 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. 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Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -6.005614288644523, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478872", "goalieName": "Karel Vejmelka", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8478424", "goals": 0, "sog": 5, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 4, "recordedAttempts": 6, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020424", "date": "20251203", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2021021053", "date": "20220327", "season": 2021, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2 }, { "gameId": "2021020592", "date": "20220104", "season": 2021, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2021020335", "date": "20211129", "season": 2021, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478872", "goalieName": "Karel Vejmelka", "opponent": "TBL", "games": 5, "availableGames": 6, "shotsAgainst": 128.0, "goalsAgainst": 18.0, "savePct": 0.859375, "gaa": 4.0538004379105415, "gsax": -5.162, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020825", "date": "20260126", "goalieTeam": "UTA", "opponent": "TBL", "shotsAgainst": 29.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.389 }, { "gameId": "2025020194", "date": "20251102", "goalieTeam": "UTA", "opponent": "TBL", "shotsAgainst": 25.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3527.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.366 }, { "gameId": "2024021145", "date": "20250327", "goalieTeam": "UTA", "opponent": "TBL", "shotsAgainst": 12.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 1754.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.834 }, { "gameId": "2024021111", "date": "20250322", "goalieTeam": "UTA", "opponent": "TBL", "shotsAgainst": 27.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.77 }, { "gameId": "2022020582", "date": "20221231", "goalieTeam": "ARI", "opponent": "TBL", "shotsAgainst": 35.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3504.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.479 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.8330000000000002, "adjustedSOG": 0.8330000000000002, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.8500000000000002, "adjustedSOG": 0.8330000000000002, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.09548252760317404, "goalHistoryGoals": 5.0, "goalHistoryShots": 87.0, "goalExpected": 0.08116014846269795, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.08116014846269795, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.07795398463202258, "goalProbability": 0.07795398463202258, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12855232661793545, "modelSOG": 0.8330000000000002, "historyGames": 107, "seasonGames": { "2024": 62, "2025": 44, "2026": 1 }, "historyGoals": 5.0, "historyShots": 87.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.05747126436781609, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.09548252760317404, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8475753", "name": "Justin Faulk", "team": "DET", "opponent": "CGY", "position": "D", "currentGP": 9, "currentSOG": 1.6666666666666667, "priorSOG": 1.8974358974358974, "currentTOI": 19.196296296296296, "currentFiveTOI": 15.846296296296297, "ppShare": 0.2914285714285714, "rate": 1.9055129907634432, "fifty": 1.8643453392902742, "inputs": { "Player": "Justin Faulk", "Player_ID": "8475753", "Team": "DET", "Opponent": "CGY", "Position": "D", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.7449692315446446, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.7293503806684694, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 9, "Prior_GP": 78, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.469206497604301, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.644328973302276, "Current_PP_SOG60": 3.9215686274509802, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 10.224948875255624, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 16.458753561253562, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 15.846296296296297, "Current_PP_Share": 0.2914285714285714, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.3549791929914229, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 918.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3150.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 5, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.430208333333333, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 1.6860457915825895, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 1.582517857142857, "Other_State_SOG": 0.17264957264957265, "Environment_Proxy": 1.096640755468006, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.8974358974358974, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:39.568516+00:00", "priorGP": 78, "currentTotalSOG": 15.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.7000000000000002, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.67 SOG/game in 9 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 9 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.644, "currentIXG": 0.07155555555555555, "priorTOI": 22.010470085470086, "priorPPTOI": 1.8807692307692305, "deploymentChange": -2.8141737891737897, "ppTOIChange": -0.18076923076923035, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021063", "date": "20260316", "team": "DET", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 22.066666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020260", "date": "20251111", "team": "STL", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 21.066666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020023", "date": "20251011", "team": "STL", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 25.033333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2024020713", "date": "20250116", "team": "STL", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 19.2 }, { "gameId": "2024020700", "date": "20250114", "team": "STL", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 18.616666666666667 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 5, "h2hSOG": 1.2, "opponentDefense": { "team": "CGY", "games": 8, "sogAllowedTotal": 237.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 29.625, "mostAllowedRank": 6, "fiveSogAllowed60": 29.8086265894977, "pkSogAllowed60": 38.789888106092, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.5, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 59.0, "C": 89.0, "R": 48.0, "L": 41.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 11.125, "L": 5.125, "R": 6.0, "D": 7.375 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 30.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.5, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 29.625, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.375, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8482445", "team": "CGY", "name": "Devin Cooley", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 3, "savePct": 0.8681318681318682, "gaa": 4.010025062656641, "gsax": -2.561, "goalsAllowed": 12.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 9.439, "shotsAgainst": 91.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0263021756310153, "factor": 1.0263021756310153, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T16:24:22.507Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.07171733721017348, "goalHistoryGoals": 22.0, "goalHistoryShots": 287.0, "goalExpected": 0.11617869289103673, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.11923444527603858, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.10968388407847314, "goalProbability": 0.11240031718588064, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.2716433107407504, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 9, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.6199526838338356, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.469206497604301, "Current_PP_SOG60": 3.9215686274509802, "Current_5v5_Min": 15.846296296296297, "Current_PP_Share": 0.2914285714285714, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.430208333333333, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.582517857142857, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.1111111111111111, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0746225056341803, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9180727421999328, "Position_Factor": 0.9914347993653367, "Input_GP": 9, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 918.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3150.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.644328973302276, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 10.224948875255624, "Prior_5v5_Min": 17.887820512820515, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.3549791929914229, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0017299327797549, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.34640522875817, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0017299327797549, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9180727421999328, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.469206497604301, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 3.9215686274509802, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 1.6666666666666667 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021063", "date": "20260316", "team": "DET", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 22.066666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020260", "date": "20251111", "team": "STL", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 21.066666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020023", "date": "20251011", "team": "STL", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 25.033333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2024020713", "date": "20250116", "team": "STL", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 19.2 }, { "gameId": "2024020700", "date": "20250114", "team": "STL", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 18.616666666666667 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Reviewed October22 projected lineup and coach reports", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. 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Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482445", "goalieName": "Devin Cooley", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8475753", "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 3, "log": [ { "gameId": "2023021221", "date": "20240406", "season": 2023, "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 3 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482445", "goalieName": "Devin Cooley", "opponent": "DET", "games": 1, "availableGames": 1, "shotsAgainst": 29.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "savePct": 0.8620689655172413, "gaa": 4.1248925809223715, "gsax": -1.0219999999999998, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020477", "date": "20251210", "goalieTeam": "CGY", "opponent": "DET", "shotsAgainst": 29.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3491.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.978 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.6199526838338356, "adjustedSOG": 1.6199526838338356, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.6530129426875875, "adjustedSOG": 1.6199526838338356, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.07171733721017348, "goalHistoryGoals": 22.0, "goalHistoryShots": 287.0, "goalExpected": 0.11854968662350689, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.11854968662350689, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.11179231748031704, "goalProbability": 0.11179231748031704, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.057546095003371385, "modelSOG": 1.6199526838338356, "historyGames": 165, "seasonGames": { "2024": 78, "2025": 78, "2026": 9 }, "historyGoals": 22.0, "historyShots": 287.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.07665505226480836, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.07171733721017348, "goalieFactor": 1.0263021756310153, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 45.560197946571414, "btb": { "id": "8475753", "name": "Justin Faulk", "score": 45.560197946571414, "components": { "Goal model": 41.395348837209305, "SOG model": 61.627906976744185, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 17.441860465116278, "Goalie": 71.32352941176471, "Team H2H": 35.77023498694517, "Goalie H2H": 49.57658594562472 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 5, "goalieH2HShots": 3, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 268 } }, { "id": "8482201", "name": "Gage Goncalves", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "UTA", "position": "L", "currentGP": 8, "currentSOG": 0.625, "priorSOG": 1.0405405405405406, "currentTOI": 15.889583333333333, "currentFiveTOI": 14.475, "ppShare": 0.19371118012422361, "rate": 0.961684038300873, "fifty": 0.8436312750313655, "inputs": { "Player": "Gage Goncalves", "Player_ID": "8482201", "Team": "TBL", "Opponent": "UTA", "Position": "C", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 0.989000365809933, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 0.7877543360166831, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 8, "Prior_GP": 74, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.0725388601036268, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.5230501594665125, "Current_PP_SOG60": 7.214428857715431, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 5.537041784157908, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 13.628108108108107, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 14.475, "Current_PP_Share": 0.19371118012422361, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.17343643595449085, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 499.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2576.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 5, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.626018518518518, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.867974103902512, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.8961115064987347, "Other_State_SOG": 0.060810810810810814, "Environment_Proxy": 0.85, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.0405405405405406, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:39.585482+00:00", "priorGP": 74.0, "currentTotalSOG": 5.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.0395833333333333, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.62 SOG/game in 8 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 8 games. 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shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478872", "goalieName": "Karel Vejmelka", "opponent": "TBL", "games": 5, "availableGames": 6, "shotsAgainst": 128.0, "goalsAgainst": 18.0, "savePct": 0.859375, "gaa": 4.0538004379105415, "gsax": -5.162, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020825", "date": "20260126", "goalieTeam": "UTA", "opponent": "TBL", "shotsAgainst": 29.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.389 }, { "gameId": "2025020194", "date": "20251102", "goalieTeam": "UTA", "opponent": "TBL", "shotsAgainst": 25.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3527.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.366 }, { "gameId": "2024021145", "date": "20250327", "goalieTeam": "UTA", "opponent": "TBL", "shotsAgainst": 12.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 1754.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.834 }, { "gameId": "2024021111", "date": "20250322", "goalieTeam": "UTA", "opponent": "TBL", "shotsAgainst": 27.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.77 }, { "gameId": "2022020582", "date": "20221231", "goalieTeam": "ARI", "opponent": "TBL", "shotsAgainst": 35.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3504.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.479 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.5377333930657632, "adjustedSOG": 0.5377333930657632, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.5487075439446563, "adjustedSOG": 0.5377333930657632, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.1310665308382122, "goalHistoryGoals": 19.0, "goalHistoryShots": 143.0, "goalExpected": 0.07191719422958197, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.07191719422958197, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.0693920476707507, "goalProbability": 0.0693920476707507, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12849166993685562, "modelSOG": 0.5377333930657632, "historyGames": 142, "seasonGames": { "2024": 60, "2025": 74, "2026": 8 }, "historyGoals": 19.0, "historyShots": 143.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.13286713286713286, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.1310665308382122, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 43.12199110016221, "btb": { "id": "8482201", "name": "Gage Goncalves", "score": 43.12199110016221, "components": { "Goal model": 24.186046511627907, "SOG model": 7.906976744186046, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 36.04651162790697, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 61.898545318910855, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Likely", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": 3, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 303 } }, { "id": "8474567", "name": "Zach Bogosian", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "SEA", "position": "D", "currentGP": 9, "currentSOG": 1.3333333333333333, "priorSOG": 0.7317073170731707, "currentTOI": 17.43148148148148, "currentFiveTOI": 14.525925925925925, "ppShare": 0.01572617946345976, "rate": 0.9127978293979095, "fifty": 1.1001817830693827, "inputs": { "Player": "Zach Bogosian", "Player_ID": "8474567", "Team": "MIN", "Opponent": "SEA", "Position": "D", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 0.8530099082756093, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.0527716404894953, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 9, "Prior_GP": 41, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.04844467108618, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.2376041729120453, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 14.236196928635952, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 14.525925925925925, "Current_PP_Share": 0.01572617946345976, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.006934011325551829, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 34.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2162.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 4, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 3.9491666666666667, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.051688782529726744, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.06210530373111317, "Other_State_SOG": 0.011111111111111112, "Environment_Proxy": 1.1489692159321772, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 0.7317073170731707, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/minnesota-wild/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:39.601252+00:00", "priorGP": 41, "currentTotalSOG": 12.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.06296296296296296, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.33 SOG/game in 9 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 9 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.273, "currentIXG": 0.030333333333333337, "priorTOI": 14.544308943089431, "priorPPTOI": 0.036585365853658534, "deploymentChange": 2.887172538392049, "ppTOIChange": 0.026377597109304422, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020465", "date": "20251208", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 14.4 }, { "gameId": "2024021088", "date": "20250319", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 17.766666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020982", "date": "20250304", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 15.033333333333333 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 0.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "SEA", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 311.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 31.1, "mostAllowedRank": 3, "fiveSogAllowed60": 29.01212141229316, "pkSogAllowed60": 57.63738641280831, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 48.5, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 101.0, "R": 65.0, "L": 58.0, "D": 87.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.1, "L": 5.8, "R": 6.5, "D": 8.7 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 31.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 3, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 28.666666666666668, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 31.1, "oppPosSogAllowed": 8.7, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8478916", "team": "SEA", "name": "Joey Daccord", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 5, "savePct": 0.881578947368421, "gaa": 3.8855909336211547, "gsax": -2.3970000000000002, "goalsAllowed": 18.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 15.603, "shotsAgainst": 152.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.024854248577667, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Likely starter per Daily Faceoff; no Model Goal adjustment until confirmed.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T20:31:39.541Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.05325584868484831, "goalHistoryGoals": 6.0, "goalHistoryShots": 121.0, "goalExpected": 0.07546425882518744, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.07546425882518744, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.07268712680677675, "goalProbability": 0.07268712680677675, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 9, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.4170135429023327, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.04844467108618, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 14.525925925925925, "Current_PP_Share": 0.01572617946345976, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 3.9491666666666667, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.06210530373111317, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.1111111111111111, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0689197555315912, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0920680305430235, "Position_Factor": 1.0046361324392672, "Input_GP": 9, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 34.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2162.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.2376041729120453, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 13.560162601626017, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.006934011325551829, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0921263345195729, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.34640522875817, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0921263345195729, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0920680305430235, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.04844467108618, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 1.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 0.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020465", "date": "20251208", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 14.4 }, { "gameId": "2024021088", "date": "20250319", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 17.766666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020982", "date": "20250304", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 15.033333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020033", "date": "20241012", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 13.816666666666666 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 49, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478916", "goalieName": "Joey Daccord", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8474567", "goals": 0, "sog": 4, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 2, "recordedAttempts": 5, "log": [ { "gameId": "2024020033", "date": "20241012", "season": 2024, "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 3 }, { "gameId": "2023020426", "date": "20231210", "season": 2023, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478916", "goalieName": "Joey Daccord", "opponent": "MIN", "games": 5, "availableGames": 6, "shotsAgainst": 123.0, "goalsAgainst": 19.0, "savePct": 0.8455284552845528, "gaa": 4.3387250237868695, "gsax": -6.912000000000001, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021240", "date": "20260407", "goalieTeam": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 28.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3488.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.569 }, { "gameId": "2024020982", "date": "20250304", "goalieTeam": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 20.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3463.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.635 }, { "gameId": "2024020033", "date": "20241012", "goalieTeam": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 38.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3885.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.839 }, { "gameId": "2023021307", "date": "20240418", "goalieTeam": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.121 }, { "gameId": "2023020913", "date": "20240224", "goalieTeam": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 13.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 1329.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.924 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.4170135429023327, "adjustedSOG": 1.4170135429023327, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.4459321866350334, "adjustedSOG": 1.4170135429023327, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.05325584868484831, "goalHistoryGoals": 6.0, "goalHistoryShots": 121.0, "goalExpected": 0.07700434573998718, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.07700434573998718, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.07411417006132226, "goalProbability": 0.07411417006132226, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05769542559351477, "modelSOG": 1.4170135429023327, "historyGames": 131, "seasonGames": { "2024": 81, "2025": 41, "2026": 9 }, "historyGoals": 6.0, "historyShots": 121.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.049586776859504134, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.05325584868484831, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 39.12175689390457, "btb": { "id": "8474567", "name": "Zach Bogosian", "score": 39.12175689390457, "components": { "Goal model": 26.27906976744186, "SOG model": 53.02325581395349, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 4.883720930232558, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 38.176053711301755, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Likely", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": 4, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 365 } }, { "id": "8477444", "name": "Andre Burakovsky", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "NYR", "position": "L", "currentGP": 5, "currentSOG": 0.4, "priorSOG": 1.1756756756756757, "currentTOI": 12.809999999999999, "currentFiveTOI": 9.97, "ppShare": 0.39787542250120717, "rate": 0.942400014877571, "fifty": 0.7339514416315243, "inputs": { "Player": "Andre Burakovsky", "Player_ID": "8477444", "Team": "OTT", "Opponent": "NYR", "Position": "L", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 0.92718856383815, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 0.5813139806452733, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 5, "Prior_GP": 74, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.407221664994985, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.9531910709017604, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 4.54067689720412, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 11.101567567567567, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 9.97, "Current_PP_Share": 0.39787542250120717, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.49514896219917126, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 824.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2071.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 1, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 6.001439393939394, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 2.5629596104184116, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 2.3878252344790254, "Other_State_SOG": 0.07297297297297298, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9482920490252438, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.1756756756756757, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/ottawa-senators/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:39.619419+00:00", "priorGP": 74, "currentTotalSOG": 2.0, "currentPPTOI": 2.7466666666666666, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.40 SOG/game in 5 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 5 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.199, "currentIXG": 0.0398, "priorTOI": 16.44144144144144, "priorPPTOI": 2.1427927927927928, "deploymentChange": -3.631441441441442, "ppTOIChange": 0.6038738738738738, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021151", "date": "20260327", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "NYR", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 13.316666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020476", "date": "20251210", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "NYR", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 14.8 }, { "gameId": "2024020436", "date": "20241208", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "NYR", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 12.583333333333334 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 1.3333333333333333, "opponentDefense": { "team": "NYR", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 283.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 25.727272727272727, "mostAllowedRank": 23, "fiveSogAllowed60": 24.897512126427788, "pkSogAllowed60": 40.17358958462492, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 39.81818181818182, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 106.0, "D": 82.0, "R": 57.0, "L": 38.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.636363636363637, "L": 3.4545454545454546, "R": 5.181818181818182, "D": 7.454545454545454 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 27.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.4, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 25.727272727272727, "oppPosSogAllowed": 3.4545454545454546, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8482193", "team": "NYR", "name": "Dylan Garand", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.9285714285714286, "gaa": 1.846928781306842, "gsax": 4.030999999999999, "goalsAllowed": 11.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 15.030999999999999, "shotsAgainst": 154.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9674872583533348, "factor": 0.9674872583533348, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T15:37:42.216Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.11136308077646173, "goalHistoryGoals": 21.0, "goalHistoryShots": 204.0, "goalExpected": 0.037863447463996995, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.03663240297874798, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.037155589239211105, "goalProbability": 0.03596955505655458, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.11860341826565243, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 5, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 0.3400000000000001, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.407221664994985, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 9.97, "Current_PP_Share": 0.39787542250120717, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 6.001439393939394, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 2.3878252344790254, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9864268368728425, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9197863814450764, "Position_Factor": 0.9636523028595196, "Input_GP": 5, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 824.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2071.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.9531910709017604, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 4.54067689720412, "Prior_5v5_Min": 13.74189189189189, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.49514896219917126, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.85, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.062091503267974, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9197863814450764, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 2.407221664994985, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021151", "date": "20260327", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "NYR", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 13.316666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020476", "date": "20251210", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "NYR", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 14.8 }, { "gameId": "2024020436", "date": "20241208", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "NYR", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 12.583333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020287", "date": "20241117", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "NYR", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 16.266666666666666 } ], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "lineupReviewedAt": "2026-10-22T12:25:32.333917+00:00", "lineupReviewNote": "Reported forward, defense and PP chart reviewed October22; matches existing assignments. Final dressing unconfirmed. Dated statistical inputs now include October21.", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 101, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 17, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482193", "goalieName": "Dylan Garand", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8477444", "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 2, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021151", "date": "20260327", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482193", "goalieName": "Dylan Garand", "opponent": "OTT", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "No appearance found in the supplied historical files; this does not establish that the goalie has never faced the team." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.3400000000000001, "adjustedSOG": 0.3400000000000001, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.3400000000000001, "adjustedSOG": 0.3400000000000001, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.11136308077646173, "goalHistoryGoals": 21.0, "goalHistoryShots": 204.0, "goalExpected": 0.037863447463996995, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.03663240297874798, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.037155589239211105, "goalProbability": 0.03596955505655458, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.11860341826565243 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12854376556044367, "modelSOG": 0.3400000000000001, "historyGames": 158, "seasonGames": { "2024": 79, "2025": 74, "2026": 5 }, "historyGoals": 21.0, "historyShots": 204.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.10294117647058823, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.11136308077646173, "goalieFactor": 0.9674872583533348, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8480336", "name": "Sean Walker", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "STL", "position": "D", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 1.4545454545454546, "priorSOG": 2.2098765432098766, "currentTOI": 21.45, "currentFiveTOI": 17.568181818181817, "ppShare": 0.12685140946010512, "rate": 2.1043090010825267, "fifty": 1.788340078062222, "inputs": { "Player": "Sean Walker", "Player_ID": "8480336", "Team": "CAR", "Opponent": "STL", "Position": "D", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 2.1902018757887847, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.8423034394661024, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 11, "Prior_GP": 81, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.0362225097024576, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.642514794896605, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 7.041072925398156, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 17.784270482603812, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 17.568181818181817, "Current_PP_Share": 0.12685140946010512, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.1666644518793152, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 531.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 4186.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 7, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 6.0017676767676775, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.8330172783816991, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.7613326890500804, "Other_State_SOG": 0.10505050505050505, "Environment_Proxy": 1.00049372648272, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 2.2098765432098766, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:39.635759+00:00", "priorGP": 81, "currentTotalSOG": 16.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.8045454545454546, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.45 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. 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Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480981", "goalieName": "Joel Hofer", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8480336", "goals": 0, "sog": 4, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 4, "recordedAttempts": 7, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020730", "date": "20260113", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 4 }, { "gameId": "2024020284", "date": "20241117", "season": 2024, "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2024020084", "date": "20241019", "season": 2024, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2023020679", "date": "20240115", "season": 2023, "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 1 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480981", "goalieName": "Joel Hofer", "opponent": "CAR", "games": 4, "availableGames": 4, "shotsAgainst": 121.0, "goalsAgainst": 10.0, "savePct": 0.9173553719008265, "gaa": 2.5300442757748263, "gsax": 1.0949999999999998, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020730", "date": "20260113", "goalieTeam": "STL", "opponent": "CAR", "shotsAgainst": 33.0, "goalsAgainst": 0.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.698 }, { "gameId": "2024020284", "date": "20241117", "goalieTeam": "STL", "opponent": "CAR", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.293 }, { "gameId": "2024020084", "date": "20241019", "goalieTeam": "STL", "opponent": "CAR", "shotsAgainst": 40.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.792 }, { "gameId": "2021020216", "date": "20211113", "goalieTeam": "STL", "opponent": "CAR", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3429.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.312 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.4493709240749881, "adjustedSOG": 1.4493709240749881, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.478949922525498, "adjustedSOG": 1.4493709240749881, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.04505740046345015, "goalHistoryGoals": 14.0, "goalHistoryShots": 339.0, "goalExpected": 0.06663763892461994, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.06520739532187353, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.06446585891880036, "goalProbability": 0.06312685987921722, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.13389990395831358 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05780198803454618, "modelSOG": 1.4493709240749881, "historyGames": 174, "seasonGames": { "2024": 82, "2025": 81, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 14.0, "historyShots": 339.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.04129793510324484, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.04505740046345015, "goalieFactor": 0.9785370006226618, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 41.0459847913534, "btb": { "id": "8480336", "name": "Sean Walker", "score": 41.0459847913534, "components": { "Goal model": 22.558139534883722, "SOG model": 54.883720930232556, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 9.534883720930232, "Goalie": 66.02941176470588, "Team H2H": 42.54009697873928, "Goalie H2H": 48.52726742490522 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": 4, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 335 } }, { "id": "8475795", "name": "Dylan McIlrath", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "position": "D", "currentGP": 3, "currentSOG": 0.0, "priorSOG": 0.38461538461538464, "currentTOI": 6.361111111111111, "currentFiveTOI": 6.361111111111111, "ppShare": 0.0, "rate": 0.2898993538537544, "fifty": 0.20029413289800435, "inputs": { "Player": "Dylan McIlrath", "Player_ID": "8475795", "Team": "WSH", "Opponent": "BUF", "Position": "D", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 0.26553904888215235, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 0.1853341047294249, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 3, "Prior_GP": 13, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 0.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 2.0267417311752287, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 7.185470085470085, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 6.361111111111111, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0, "Prior_PP_Share": 0, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 923.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 3, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.500555555555556, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.0, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.0, "Other_State_SOG": 0.06923076923076923, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9496227273390297, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 0.38461538461538464, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:39.653343+00:00", "priorGP": 13, "currentTotalSOG": 0.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.0, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.00 SOG/game in 3 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 3 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.005, "currentIXG": 0.0016666666666666668, "priorTOI": 9.312820512820512, "priorPPTOI": 0, "deploymentChange": -2.951709401709401, "ppTOIChange": 0.0, "h2hLog": [], "h2hGames": 0, "h2hAvailableGames": 0, "h2hSOG": null, "opponentDefense": { "team": "BUF", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 257.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 25.7, "mostAllowedRank": 24, "fiveSogAllowed60": 21.645723550871505, "pkSogAllowed60": 62.21198156682028, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 40.1, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 61.0, "L": 55.0, "D": 65.0, "C": 76.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.6, "L": 5.5, "R": 6.1, "D": 6.5 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 30.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.25, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 25.7, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.5, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8480045", "team": "BUF", "name": "Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 8, "savePct": 0.8629441624365483, "gaa": 3.5349310833909153, "gsax": -3.6580000000000013, "goalsAllowed": 27.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 23.342, "shotsAgainst": 197.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.035448902624297, "factor": 1.035448902624297, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T15:43:35.500Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.05016761044860532, "goalHistoryGoals": 0.0, "goalHistoryShots": 15.0, "goalExpected": 0.0, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.0, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.0, "goalProbability": 0.0, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 3, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 0.0, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 6.361111111111111, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.500555555555556, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.0, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.922717716387106, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.1429256259066152, "Position_Factor": 0.9922053498483736, "Input_GP": 3, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 923.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 2.0267417311752287, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 9.10897435897436, "Prior_PP_Share": 0, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9423932384341638, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.34640522875817, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9423932384341638, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.1429256259066152, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 0, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. 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Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480045", "goalieName": "Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8475795", "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 2, "log": [ { "gameId": "2022020947", "date": "20230226", "season": 2022, "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 2 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480045", "goalieName": "Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen", "opponent": "WSH", "games": 5, "availableGames": 10, "shotsAgainst": 138.0, "goalsAgainst": 13.0, "savePct": 0.9057971014492754, "gaa": 2.5547246028713357, "gsax": 1.2270000000000003, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021028", "date": "20260312", "goalieTeam": "BUF", "opponent": "WSH", "shotsAgainst": 22.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3513.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.736 }, { "gameId": "2025020186", "date": "20251101", "goalieTeam": "BUF", "opponent": "WSH", "shotsAgainst": 34.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3868.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.692 }, { "gameId": "2024020637", "date": "20250106", "goalieTeam": "BUF", "opponent": "WSH", "shotsAgainst": 28.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3900.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.29 }, { "gameId": "2024020480", "date": "20241214", "goalieTeam": "BUF", "opponent": "WSH", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3438.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.234 }, { "gameId": "2023021255", "date": "20240411", "goalieTeam": "BUF", "opponent": "WSH", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.275 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.0, "adjustedSOG": 0.0, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.0, "adjustedSOG": 0.0, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.05016761044860532, "goalHistoryGoals": 0.0, "goalHistoryShots": 15.0, "goalExpected": 0.0, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.0, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.0, "goalProbability": 0.0, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05769275201589612, "modelSOG": 0.0, "historyGames": 33, "seasonGames": { "2024": 17, "2025": 13, "2026": 3 }, "historyGoals": 0.0, "historyShots": 15.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.0, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.05016761044860532, "goalieFactor": 1.035448902624297, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8479372", "name": "Joshua Mahura", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "position": "D", "currentGP": 7, "currentSOG": 0.5714285714285714, "priorSOG": 0.6521739130434783, "currentTOI": 13.976190476190476, "currentFiveTOI": 13.178571428571429, "ppShare": 0.0, "rate": 0.5768582002618483, "fifty": 0.5672882374138152, "inputs": { "Player": "Josh Mahura", "Player_ID": "8479372", "Team": "SEA", "Opponent": "MIN", "Position": "D", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 0.632234256898401, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 0.5307257344157972, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 7, "Prior_GP": 23, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.6016260162601625, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 2.62582056892779, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 13.397608695652174, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 13.178571428571429, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.021410730669311408, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2118.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 3, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.085, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.032662069636034546, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.0, "Other_State_SOG": 0.0, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9620662188708584, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 0.6521739130434783, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/seattle-kraken/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:39.671804+00:00", "priorGP": 23, "currentTotalSOG": 4.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.0, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.57 SOG/game in 7 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 7 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.422, "currentIXG": 0.06028571428571428, "priorTOI": 15.66159420289855, "priorPPTOI": 0.0891304347826087, "deploymentChange": -1.6854037267080741, "ppTOIChange": -0.0891304347826087, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020465", "date": "20251208", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 17.833333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2024020982", "date": "20250304", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 11.516666666666667 } ], "h2hGames": 2, "h2hAvailableGames": 2, "h2hSOG": 1.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "MIN", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 261.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 26.1, "mostAllowedRank": 21, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.40367597004765, "pkSogAllowed60": 45.30289727831431, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 40.4, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 77.0, "C": 114.0, "R": 29.0, "L": 41.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 11.4, "L": 4.1, "R": 2.9, "D": 7.7 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 24.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 28.333333333333332, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 26.1, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.7, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8482661", "team": "MIN", "name": "Jesper Wallstedt", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 9, "savePct": 0.9152542372881356, "gaa": 2.1979363819525, "gsax": 6.934999999999999, "goalsAllowed": 20.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 26.935, "shotsAgainst": 236.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9495343259526882, "factor": 0.9495343259526882, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T18:37:27.914Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.0382781793370592, "goalHistoryGoals": 1.0, "goalHistoryShots": 77.0, "goalExpected": 0.02239964327703203, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.021269230180637273, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.022150633972759293, "goalProbability": 0.021044635243150058, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.11059987296092345, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 7, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 0.5851804778851043, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.6016260162601625, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 13.178571428571429, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.085, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.0, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.957587153238364, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9748801923935355, "Position_Factor": 1.0117153945269357, "Input_GP": 7, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2118.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 2.62582056892779, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 13.908695652173913, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.021410730669311408, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0240658362989326, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.34640522875817, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0240658362989326, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9748801923935355, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 2.6016260162601625, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 1.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 1.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020465", "date": "20251208", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 17.833333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2024020982", "date": "20250304", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 11.516666666666667 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 26, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482661", "goalieName": "Jesper Wallstedt", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8479372", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482661", "goalieName": "Jesper Wallstedt", "opponent": "SEA", "games": 2, "availableGames": 2, "shotsAgainst": 55.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "savePct": 0.9272727272727272, "gaa": 1.9647973802701597, "gsax": 2.874, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021240", "date": "20260407", "goalieTeam": "MIN", "opponent": "SEA", "shotsAgainst": 27.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.053 }, { "gameId": "2025020693", "date": "20260108", "goalieTeam": "MIN", "opponent": "SEA", "shotsAgainst": 28.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3729.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.821 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.5851804778851043, "adjustedSOG": 0.5851804778851043, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.5851804778851043, "adjustedSOG": 0.5851804778851043, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.0382781793370592, "goalHistoryGoals": 1.0, "goalHistoryShots": 77.0, "goalExpected": 0.02239964327703203, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.02239964327703203, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.022150633972759293, "goalProbability": 0.022150633972759293, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05775237742659479, "modelSOG": 0.5851804778851043, "historyGames": 94, "seasonGames": { "2024": 64, "2025": 23, "2026": 7 }, "historyGoals": 1.0, "historyShots": 77.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.012987012987012988, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.0382781793370592, "goalieFactor": 0.9495343259526882, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 33.170777182085416, "btb": { "id": "8479372", "name": "Joshua Mahura", "score": 33.170777182085416, "components": { "Goal model": 3.953488372093023, "SOG model": 8.837209302325581, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 19.302325581395348, "Goalie": 23.676470588235293, "Team H2H": 50.93559617058312, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 2, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 422 } }, { "id": "8481553", "name": "Bobby Brink", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "SEA", "position": "R", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 1.4, "priorSOG": 1.5294117647058822, "currentTOI": 12.921666666666667, "currentFiveTOI": 11.706666666666667, "ppShare": 0.2903624382207578, "rate": 1.5304003905860384, "fifty": 1.5441768854279223, "inputs": { "Player": "Bobby Brink", "Player_ID": "8481553", "Team": "MIN", "Opponent": "SEA", "Position": "R", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.507235316923973, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.6732984442349998, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 10, "Prior_GP": 68, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 6.150341685649202, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.47945205479452, "Current_PP_SOG60": 10.212765957446809, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 9.169638308711157, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 12.059372549019608, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 11.706666666666667, "Current_PP_Share": 0.2903624382207578, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.3647516558917568, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 705.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2428.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 5, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 3.9491666666666667, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 1.234822287909192, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 1.1466896622734761, "Other_State_SOG": 0.026470588235294117, "Environment_Proxy": 1.1489692159321772, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.5294117647058822, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/minnesota-wild/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:39.688400+00:00", "priorGP": 68, "currentTotalSOG": 14.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.175, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.40 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.23, "currentIXG": 0.123, "priorTOI": 15.159313725490195, "priorPPTOI": 1.9245098039215687, "deploymentChange": -2.237647058823528, "ppTOIChange": -0.7495098039215686, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021240", "date": "20260407", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 12.483333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020605", "date": "20251228", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 16.75 }, { "gameId": "2025020094", "date": "20251020", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 13.783333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024021004", "date": "20250308", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 15.733333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020071", "date": "20241017", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 12.383333333333333 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 5, "h2hSOG": 1.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "SEA", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 311.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 31.1, "mostAllowedRank": 3, "fiveSogAllowed60": 29.01212141229316, "pkSogAllowed60": 57.63738641280831, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 48.5, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 101.0, "R": 65.0, "L": 58.0, "D": 87.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.1, "L": 5.8, "R": 6.5, "D": 8.7 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 31.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 3, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 28.666666666666668, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 31.1, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.5, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8478916", "team": "SEA", "name": "Joey Daccord", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 5, "savePct": 0.881578947368421, "gaa": 3.8855909336211547, "gsax": -2.3970000000000002, "goalsAllowed": 18.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 15.603, "shotsAgainst": 152.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.024854248577667, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Likely starter per Daily Faceoff; no Model Goal adjustment until confirmed.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T20:31:39.541Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.12337833224077273, "goalHistoryGoals": 27.0, "goalHistoryShots": 223.0, "goalExpected": 0.18592948192049574, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.18592948192049574, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.16966785365424547, "goalProbability": 0.16966785365424547, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.506986506817538, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 6.150341685649202, "Current_PP_SOG60": 10.212765957446809, "Current_5v5_Min": 11.706666666666667, "Current_PP_Share": 0.2903624382207578, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 3.9491666666666667, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.1466896622734761, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0689197555315912, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0920680305430235, "Position_Factor": 1.0071973889972414, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 705.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2428.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.47945205479452, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 9.169638308711157, "Prior_5v5_Min": 12.882352941176471, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.3647516558917568, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.1038251366120218, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.382352941176471, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.1038251366120218, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0920680305430235, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 6.150341685649202, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 10.212765957446809, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 0.6666666666666666 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021240", "date": "20260407", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 12.483333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020605", "date": "20251228", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 16.75 }, { "gameId": "2025020094", "date": "20251020", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 13.783333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024021004", "date": "20250308", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 15.733333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020071", "date": "20241017", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 12.383333333333333 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 120, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 37, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478916", "goalieName": "Joey Daccord", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8481553", "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 5, "log": [ { "gameId": "2023020554", "date": "20231229", "season": 2023, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 5 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478916", "goalieName": "Joey Daccord", "opponent": "MIN", "games": 5, "availableGames": 6, "shotsAgainst": 123.0, "goalsAgainst": 19.0, "savePct": 0.8455284552845528, "gaa": 4.3387250237868695, "gsax": -6.912000000000001, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021240", "date": "20260407", "goalieTeam": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 28.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3488.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.569 }, { "gameId": "2024020982", "date": "20250304", "goalieTeam": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 20.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3463.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.635 }, { "gameId": "2024020033", "date": "20241012", "goalieTeam": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 38.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3885.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.839 }, { "gameId": "2023021307", "date": "20240418", "goalieTeam": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.121 }, { "gameId": "2023020913", "date": "20240224", "goalieTeam": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 13.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 1329.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.924 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.506986506817538, "adjustedSOG": 1.506986506817538, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.5377413334872838, "adjustedSOG": 1.506986506817538, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.12337833224077273, "goalHistoryGoals": 27.0, "goalHistoryShots": 223.0, "goalExpected": 0.18972396114336298, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.18972396114336298, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.17281256169383047, "goalProbability": 0.17281256169383047, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12851201313769592, "modelSOG": 1.506986506817538, "historyGames": 157, "seasonGames": { "2024": 79, "2025": 68, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 27.0, "historyShots": 223.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.1210762331838565, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.12337833224077273, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 49.33289817232376, "btb": { "id": "8481553", "name": "Bobby Brink", "score": 49.33289817232376, "components": { "Goal model": 63.25581395348837, "SOG model": 57.674418604651166, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 34.651162790697676, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 35.5526544821584, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Likely", "h2hGames": 5, "goalieH2HShots": 2, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 208 } }, { "id": "8481559", "name": "Jack Hughes", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "LAK", "position": "C", "currentGP": 9, "currentSOG": 3.888888888888889, "priorSOG": 3.737704918032787, "currentTOI": 20.688888888888886, "currentFiveTOI": 16.17037037037037, "ppShare": 0.6535490989334314, "rate": 3.7234156129350025, "fifty": 3.698240466353928, "inputs": { "Player": "Jack Hughes", "Player_ID": "8481559", "Team": "NJD", "Opponent": "LAK", "Position": "C", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 3.7284999850401856, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 3.4191061436406147, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 9, "Prior_GP": 61, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 10.719193770041228, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 9.071939905621008, "Current_PP_SOG60": 8.103545301069218, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 14.76850947450674, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 16.425980570734666, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 16.17037037037037, "Current_PP_Share": 0.6535490989334314, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.721224878528114, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1777.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2719.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 4, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.972354497354498, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 3.3506301914325047, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 3.2496778013236276, "Other_State_SOG": 0.43916211293260476, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9908219918860978, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 3.737704918032787, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-jersey-devils/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:39.703872+00:00", "priorGP": 61, "currentTotalSOG": 35.0, "currentPPTOI": 3.2907407407407407, "volumeNote": "Observed 3.89 SOG/game in 9 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 9 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 4.8870000000000005, "currentIXG": 0.543, "priorTOI": 21.315573770491802, "priorPPTOI": 2.7972677595628412, "deploymentChange": -0.626684881602916, "ppTOIChange": 0.4934729811778995, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021050", "date": "20260314", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 18.083333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2025020191", "date": "20251101", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 20.3 }, { "gameId": "2024020602", "date": "20250101", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 22.6 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 3.3333333333333335, "opponentDefense": { "team": "LAK", "games": 7, "sogAllowedTotal": 193.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.571428571428573, "mostAllowedRank": 14, "fiveSogAllowed60": 25.227874154660395, "pkSogAllowed60": 57.61396702230844, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 39.142857142857146, "positionUnassignedSOG": 1.0, "positionTotals": { "C": 86.0, "D": 47.0, "R": 28.0, "L": 31.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 12.285714285714286, "L": 4.428571428571429, "R": 4.0, "D": 6.714285714285714 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 27.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 29.5, "positionSourceDifference": 1.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.571428571428573, "oppPosSogAllowed": 12.285714285714286, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8476341", "team": "LAK", "name": "Anton Forsberg", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 3, "savePct": 0.8833333333333333, "gaa": 2.6313041662315966, "gsax": -2.1049999999999995, "goalsAllowed": 7.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.8950000000000005, "shotsAgainst": 60.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0218332511814823, "factor": 1.0218332511814823, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T19:00:24.293Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.11631112212637598, "goalHistoryGoals": 56.0, "goalHistoryShots": 492.0, "goalExpected": 0.4978130699986819, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.508681947797388, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.39214144871720324, "goalProbability": 0.39871241482921926, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.6570966112016019, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 9, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 4.280012615283611, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 10.719193770041228, "Current_PP_SOG60": 8.103545301069218, "Current_5v5_Min": 16.17037037037037, "Current_PP_Share": 0.6535490989334314, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.972354497354498, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 3.2496778013236276, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.5555555555555556, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9946407827573338, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.085978140946376, "Position_Factor": 1.0294279115633451, "Input_GP": 9, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1777.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2719.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 9.071939905621008, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 14.76850947450674, "Prior_5v5_Min": 17.0224043715847, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.721224878528114, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.124246374450057, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.437908496732026, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.124246374450057, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.085978140946376, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 10.719193770041228, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 8.103545301069218, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 3.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 3.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021050", "date": "20260314", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 18.083333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2025020191", "date": "20251101", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 20.3 }, { "gameId": "2024020602", "date": "20250101", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 22.6 }, { "gameId": "2024020461", "date": "20241212", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 19.683333333333334 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. 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Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476341", "goalieName": "Anton Forsberg", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8481559", "goals": 1, "sog": 10, "shootingPct": 0.1, "gamesWithAttempts": 5, "recordedAttempts": 15, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021050", "date": "20260314", "season": 2025, "goals": 1, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2 }, { "gameId": "2024020737", "date": "20250119", "season": 2024, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 3 }, { "gameId": "2024020062", "date": "20241017", "season": 2024, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2022020213", "date": "20221110", "season": 2022, "goals": 0, "sog": 4, "attempts": 5 }, { "gameId": "2021020234", "date": "20211206", "season": 2021, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 4 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476341", "goalieName": "Anton Forsberg", "opponent": "NJD", "games": 5, "availableGames": 11, "shotsAgainst": 115.0, "goalsAgainst": 15.0, "savePct": 0.8695652173913043, "gaa": 4.18280402788536, "gsax": -4.362, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021050", "date": "20260314", "goalieTeam": "LAK", "opponent": "NJD", "shotsAgainst": 27.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3466.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.948 }, { "gameId": "2024020737", "date": "20250119", "goalieTeam": "OTT", "opponent": "NJD", "shotsAgainst": 26.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.295 }, { "gameId": "2024020062", "date": "20241017", "goalieTeam": "OTT", "opponent": "NJD", "shotsAgainst": 35.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3470.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.298 }, { "gameId": "2023021224", "date": "20240406", "goalieTeam": "OTT", "opponent": "NJD", "shotsAgainst": 9.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 994.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 0.874 }, { "gameId": "2022020274", "date": "20221119", "goalieTeam": "OTT", "opponent": "NJD", "shotsAgainst": 18.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 1380.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.223 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 4.280012615283611, "adjustedSOG": 4.280012615283611, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 4.280012615283611, "adjustedSOG": 4.280012615283611, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.11631112212637598, "goalHistoryGoals": 56.0, "goalHistoryShots": 492.0, "goalExpected": 0.4978130699986819, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.4978130699986819, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.39214144871720324, "goalProbability": 0.39214144871720324, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12856184298814582, "modelSOG": 4.280012615283611, "historyGames": 132, "seasonGames": { "2024": 62, "2025": 61, "2026": 9 }, "historyGoals": 56.0, "historyShots": 492.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.11382113821138211, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.11631112212637598, "goalieFactor": 1.0218332511814823, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 70.06952129520722, "btb": { "id": "8481559", "name": "Jack Hughes", "score": 70.06952129520722, "components": { "Goal model": 98.37209302325581, "SOG model": 99.53488372093024, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 98.6046511627907, "Goalie": 76.61764705882354, "Team H2H": 51.67847817978366, "Goalie H2H": 51.44356955380577 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": 10, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 3 } }, { "id": "8480813", "name": "Joseph Veleno", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "OTT", "position": "C", "currentGP": 4, "currentSOG": 0.5, "priorSOG": 0.8524590163934426, "currentTOI": 11.620833333333334, "currentFiveTOI": 8.9, "ppShare": 0.0, "rate": 0.7247452001171596, "fifty": 0.5848545668064644, "inputs": { "Player": "Joseph Veleno", "Player_ID": "8480813", "Team": "NYR", "Opponent": "OTT", "Position": "C", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 0.6941262109286301, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 0.5617569339266867, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 4, "Prior_GP": 61, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 1.6853932584269662, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.144023557756659, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 19.88950276243094, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 9.29188524590164, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 8.9, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.010409047076356625, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1017.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 4, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.145909090909091, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.016069202993377277, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.0, "Other_State_SOG": 0.1430327868852459, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9343896732646498, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 0.8524590163934426, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-york-rangers/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:39.720982+00:00", "priorGP": 61, "currentTotalSOG": 2.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.0, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.50 SOG/game in 4 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 4 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.199, "currentIXG": 0.04975, "priorTOI": 12.091256830601093, "priorPPTOI": 0.049453551912568304, "deploymentChange": -0.47042349726775967, "ppTOIChange": -0.049453551912568304, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020758", "date": "20260117", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 15.533333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020411", "date": "20251202", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 14.766666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020187", "date": "20251101", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 12.0 }, { "gameId": "2024021293", "date": "20250415", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 13.416666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020642", "date": "20250107", "team": "DET", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 12.25 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 5, "h2hSOG": 1.2, "opponentDefense": { "team": "OTT", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 255.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 25.5, "mostAllowedRank": 25, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.477120373069077, "pkSogAllowed60": 46.82395644283122, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 38.7, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 67.0, "C": 98.0, "R": 48.0, "L": 42.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.8, "L": 4.2, "R": 4.8, "D": 6.7 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 24.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 22.6, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 25.5, "oppPosSogAllowed": 9.8, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8477992", "team": "OTT", "name": "Jonas Johansson", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 0, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "goalsAllowed": null, "xGoalsAgainst": null, "shotsAgainst": null, "scenarioFactor": 1, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; no matching goalie statistics in this snapshot, so the goalie factor remains neutral.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T15:15:50.280Z", "idResolution": "Exact goalie name mapped to one unique MoneyPuck player ID" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.0998060639724868, "goalHistoryGoals": 10.0, "goalHistoryShots": 129.0, "goalExpected": 0.04937403911185737, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.04937403911185737, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.048174956686305836, "goalProbability": 0.048174956686305836, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 4, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 0.49469979224376737, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 1.6853932584269662, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 8.9, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.145909090909091, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.0, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.25, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9604171757553249, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9920036605974645, "Position_Factor": 1.0136284014991037, "Input_GP": 4, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1017.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.144023557756659, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 19.88950276243094, "Prior_5v5_Min": 10.206284153005464, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.010409047076356625, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0191828254847646, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.437908496732026, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0191828254847646, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9920036605974645, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 1.6853932584269662, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 0.6666666666666666 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020758", "date": "20260117", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 15.533333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020411", "date": "20251202", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 14.766666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020187", "date": "20251101", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 12.0 }, { "gameId": "2024021293", "date": "20250415", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 13.416666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020642", "date": "20250107", "team": "DET", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 12.25 } ], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 66, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477992", "goalieName": "Jonas Johansson", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8480813", "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 2, "recordedAttempts": 3, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020602", "date": "20251228", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2023020023", "date": "20231014", "season": 2023, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477992", "goalieName": "Jonas Johansson", "opponent": "NYR", "games": 4, "availableGames": 4, "shotsAgainst": 43.0, "goalsAgainst": 6.0, "savePct": 0.8604651162790697, "gaa": 2.615328732292045, "gsax": -1.567, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020391", "date": "20251129", "goalieTeam": "TBL", "opponent": "NYR", "shotsAgainst": 13.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.688 }, { "gameId": "2025020265", "date": "20251112", "goalieTeam": "TBL", "opponent": "NYR", "shotsAgainst": 7.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 993.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 0.748 }, { "gameId": "2024021310", "date": "20250417", "goalieTeam": "TBL", "opponent": "NYR", "shotsAgainst": 22.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3573.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.983 }, { "gameId": "2021020399", "date": "20211208", "goalieTeam": "COL", "opponent": "NYR", "shotsAgainst": 1.0, "goalsAgainst": 0.0, "seconds": 93.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 0.014 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.49469979224376737, "adjustedSOG": 0.49469979224376737, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.5047957063711912, "adjustedSOG": 0.49469979224376737, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.0998060639724868, "goalHistoryGoals": 10.0, "goalHistoryShots": 129.0, "goalExpected": 0.05038167256311977, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.05038167256311977, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.04913356439599233, "goalProbability": 0.04913356439599233, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1285558864969948, "modelSOG": 0.49469979224376737, "historyGames": 139, "seasonGames": { "2024": 74, "2025": 61, "2026": 4 }, "historyGoals": 10.0, "historyShots": 129.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.07751937984496124, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.0998060639724868, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8480817", "name": "K'Andre Miller", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "STL", "position": "D", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 1.6363636363636365, "priorSOG": 1.7083333333333333, "currentTOI": 22.348484848484848, "currentFiveTOI": 17.66212121212121, "ppShare": 0.2840420449116101, "rate": 1.7093422615652694, "fifty": 1.6076247592373152, "inputs": { "Player": "K'Andre Miller", "Player_ID": "8480817", "Team": "CAR", "Opponent": "STL", "Position": "D", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.7647395211370154, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.5262433626510816, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 11, "Prior_GP": 72, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.0147550827828775, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.818685299571427, "Current_PP_SOG60": 6.055508830950378, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 7.083128381701918, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 18.01855429292929, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 17.66212121212121, "Current_PP_Share": 0.2840420449116101, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.21301058089101915, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1189.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 4186.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 7, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 6.0017676767676775, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 1.5768600605558136, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 1.7047543639934946, "Other_State_SOG": 0.10227272727272727, "Environment_Proxy": 1.00049372648272, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.7083333333333333, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:39.737639+00:00", "priorGP": 72, "currentTotalSOG": 18.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.8015151515151515, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.64 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. 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Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480981", "goalieName": "Joel Hofer", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8480817", "goals": 0, "sog": 7, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 2, "recordedAttempts": 8, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020730", "date": "20260113", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 4, "attempts": 4 }, { "gameId": "2024020337", "date": "20241125", "season": 2024, "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 4 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480981", "goalieName": "Joel Hofer", "opponent": "CAR", "games": 4, "availableGames": 4, "shotsAgainst": 121.0, "goalsAgainst": 10.0, "savePct": 0.9173553719008265, "gaa": 2.5300442757748263, "gsax": 1.0949999999999998, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020730", "date": "20260113", "goalieTeam": "STL", "opponent": "CAR", "shotsAgainst": 33.0, "goalsAgainst": 0.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.698 }, { "gameId": "2024020284", "date": "20241117", "goalieTeam": "STL", "opponent": "CAR", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.293 }, { "gameId": "2024020084", "date": "20241019", "goalieTeam": "STL", "opponent": "CAR", "shotsAgainst": 40.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.792 }, { "gameId": "2021020216", "date": "20211113", "goalieTeam": "STL", "opponent": "CAR", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3429.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.312 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.6150836042365264, "adjustedSOG": 1.6150836042365264, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.6480444941189045, "adjustedSOG": 1.6150836042365264, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.06200494480201763, "goalHistoryGoals": 16.0, "goalHistoryShots": 251.0, "goalExpected": 0.10218690788911175, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.09999367034871563, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.09713921590594424, "goalProbability": 0.09515685464058925, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.198236126535499 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.057637356255081894, "modelSOG": 1.6150836042365264, "historyGames": 157, "seasonGames": { "2024": 74, "2025": 72, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 16.0, "historyShots": 251.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.06374501992031872, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.06200494480201763, "goalieFactor": 0.9785370006226618, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 47.387664483140426, "btb": { "id": "8480817", "name": "K'Andre Miller", "score": 47.387664483140426, "components": { "Goal model": 35.81395348837209, "SOG model": 61.395348837209305, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 33.95348837209303, "Goalie": 66.02941176470588, "Team H2H": 50.451897971480214, "Goalie H2H": 45.89031634203619 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 3, "goalieH2HShots": 7, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 243 } }, { "id": "8475798", "name": "Mikael Granlund", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "PHI", "position": "C", "currentGP": 8, "currentSOG": 1.875, "priorSOG": 2.0172413793103448, "currentTOI": 19.525, "currentFiveTOI": 11.652083333333334, "ppShare": 0.8459229614807404, "rate": 2.3132280059962356, "fifty": 2.3577126999623976, "inputs": { "Player": "Mikael Granlund", "Player_ID": "8475798", "Team": "ANA", "Opponent": "PHI", "Position": "C", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 2.031702953448901, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 2.1010450172649717, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 8, "Prior_GP": 58, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 7.08027892007867, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.244890088700347, "Current_PP_SOG60": 6.386753400354819, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 10.590311825848206, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 12.180079022988505, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 11.652083333333334, "Current_PP_Share": 0.8459229614807404, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.5596387841758472, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1691.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1999.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 5, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.388425925925926, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 4.095406892027242, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 4.55819321697886, "Other_State_SOG": 0.2607758620689655, "Environment_Proxy": 1.15, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 2.0172413793103448, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/anaheim-ducks/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:39.753653+00:00", "priorGP": 58, "currentTotalSOG": 15.0, "currentPPTOI": 3.5229166666666667, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.88 SOG/game in 8 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 8 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 2.2720000000000002, "currentIXG": 0.28400000000000003, "priorTOI": 19.17385057471264, "priorPPTOI": 2.9304597701149424, "deploymentChange": 0.3511494252873568, "ppTOIChange": 0.5924568965517243, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021082", "date": "20260318", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 16.966666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2025020670", "date": "20260106", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 22.016666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024021105", "date": "20250322", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 15.983333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020599", "date": "20241231", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 18.85 }, { "gameId": "2024020240", "date": "20241111", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 8.0, "toi": 24.233333333333334 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 5, "h2hSOG": 1.2, "opponentDefense": { "team": "PHI", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 383.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 31.916666666666668, "mostAllowedRank": 2, "fiveSogAllowed60": 31.042564889030356, "pkSogAllowed60": 46.879209699146834, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.75, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 113.0, "C": 130.0, "R": 73.0, "L": 67.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.833333333333334, "L": 5.583333333333333, "R": 6.083333333333333, "D": 9.416666666666666 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 27.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.833333333333332, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 31.916666666666668, "oppPosSogAllowed": 10.833333333333334, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8479361", "team": "PHI", "name": "Joseph Woll", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 6, "savePct": 0.9166666666666666, "gaa": 2.640143007746253, "gsax": 4.5710000000000015, "goalsAllowed": 16.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 20.571, "shotsAgainst": 192.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9655996195755495, "factor": 0.9655996195755495, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T14:50:13.988Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.1392664935735078, "goalHistoryGoals": 43.0, "goalHistoryShots": 301.0, "goalExpected": 0.2855190835151128, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.27569711842375244, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.24837600258643835, "goalProbability": 0.24095720397299286, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.7418798613445493, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 8, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 2.0501635116160215, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 7.08027892007867, "Current_PP_SOG60": 6.386753400354819, "Current_5v5_Min": 11.652083333333334, "Current_PP_Share": 0.8459229614807404, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.388425925925926, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 4.55819321697886, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.125, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.1165260841882552, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9915761915723407, "Position_Factor": 0.9972034521823692, "Input_GP": 8, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1691.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1999.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.244890088700347, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 10.590311825848206, "Prior_5v5_Min": 13.412068965517241, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.5596387841758472, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.080647192143037, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.437908496732026, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.080647192143037, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9915761915723407, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 7.08027892007867, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 6.386753400354819, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 2.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021082", "date": "20260318", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 16.966666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2025020670", "date": "20260106", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 22.016666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024021105", "date": "20250322", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 15.983333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020599", "date": "20241231", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 18.85 }, { "gameId": "2024020240", "date": "20241111", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 8.0, "toi": 24.233333333333334 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "ppAssignmentSourceDate": "2026-10-13T16:34:52.608Z", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 107, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 45, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479361", "goalieName": "Joseph Woll", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8475798", "goals": 0, "sog": 4, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 4, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021029", "date": "20260312", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 4, "attempts": 4 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479361", "goalieName": "Joseph Woll", "opponent": "ANA", "games": 3, "availableGames": 3, "shotsAgainst": 91.0, "goalsAgainst": 7.0, "savePct": 0.9230769230769231, "gaa": 2.6359832635983262, "gsax": 2.575, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021029", "date": "20260312", "goalieTeam": "TOR", "opponent": "ANA", "shotsAgainst": 40.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3567.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.449 }, { "gameId": "2024021176", "date": "20250330", "goalieTeam": "TOR", "opponent": "ANA", "shotsAgainst": 31.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3593.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.338 }, { "gameId": "2024020459", "date": "20241212", "goalieTeam": "TOR", "opponent": "ANA", "shotsAgainst": 20.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 2400.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.788 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 2.0501635116160215, "adjustedSOG": 2.0501635116160215, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 2.0920035832816546, "adjustedSOG": 2.0501635116160215, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.1392664935735078, "goalHistoryGoals": 43.0, "goalHistoryShots": 301.0, "goalExpected": 0.2913460035868498, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.2813235902283189, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.25274292034716883, "goalProbability": 0.2452159447857722, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.7526975561396643 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1284586392297662, "modelSOG": 2.0501635116160215, "historyGames": 149, "seasonGames": { "2024": 83, "2025": 58, "2026": 8 }, "historyGoals": 43.0, "historyShots": 301.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.14285714285714285, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.1392664935735078, "goalieFactor": 0.9655996195755495, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 58.00933380817186, "btb": { "id": "8475798", "name": "Mikael Granlund", "score": 58.00933380817186, "components": { "Goal model": 83.48837209302326, "SOG model": 76.97674418604652, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 79.76744186046511, "Goalie": 28.970588235294116, "Team H2H": 44.90861618798956, "Goalie H2H": 48.52726742490522 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 5, "goalieH2HShots": 4, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 112 } }, { "id": "8484186", "name": "Ryan Leonard", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "position": "L", "currentGP": 9, "currentSOG": 2.4444444444444446, "priorSOG": 2.04, "currentTOI": 14.214814814814815, "currentFiveTOI": 11.125925925925927, "ppShare": 0.4823202224870878, "rate": 1.9391754306785, "fifty": 1.937566587662444, "inputs": { "Player": "Ryan Leonard", "Player_ID": "8484186", "Team": "WSH", "Opponent": "BUF", "Position": "R", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.8170334418612708, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.8928269765342247, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 9, "Prior_GP": 75, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 7.789613848202396, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 7.744126804415511, "Current_PP_SOG60": 14.827018121911038, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 12.849494348602022, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 11.321148148148149, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 11.125925925925927, "Current_PP_Share": 0.4823202224870878, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.5122000613115089, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1214.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2517.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 5, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.500555555555556, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 2.2110517192571604, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 2.1707089568710547, "Other_State_SOG": 0.08044444444444446, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9496227273390297, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 2.04, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:39.771237+00:00", "priorGP": 75, "currentTotalSOG": 22.0, "currentPPTOI": 2.2481481481481485, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.44 SOG/game in 9 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 9 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 3.0620000000000003, "currentIXG": 0.34022222222222226, "priorTOI": 14.413555555555556, "priorPPTOI": 2.2413333333333334, "deploymentChange": -0.19874074074074066, "ppTOIChange": 0.006814814814815051, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021213", "date": "20260404", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 12.916666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025021028", "date": "20260312", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 13.766666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020186", "date": "20251101", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 12.233333333333333 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 3, "h2hSOG": 1.3333333333333333, "opponentDefense": { "team": "BUF", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 257.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 25.7, "mostAllowedRank": 24, "fiveSogAllowed60": 21.645723550871505, "pkSogAllowed60": 62.21198156682028, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 40.1, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 61.0, "L": 55.0, "D": 65.0, "C": 76.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.6, "L": 5.5, "R": 6.1, "D": 6.5 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 30.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.25, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 25.7, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.5, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8480045", "team": "BUF", "name": "Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 8, "savePct": 0.8629441624365483, "gaa": 3.5349310833909153, "gsax": -3.6580000000000013, "goalsAllowed": 27.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 23.342, "shotsAgainst": 197.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.035448902624297, "factor": 1.035448902624297, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T15:43:35.500Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.1296213396728585, "goalHistoryGoals": 25.0, "goalHistoryShots": 192.0, "goalExpected": 0.3324079000322185, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.34419139531200765, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.28280528056713583, "goalProbability": 0.291206744639892, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.840146407275616, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 9, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 2.564453514144798, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 7.789613848202396, "Current_PP_SOG60": 14.827018121911038, "Current_5v5_Min": 11.125925925925927, "Current_PP_Share": 0.4823202224870878, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.500555555555556, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 2.1707089568710547, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.4444444444444444, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.922717716387106, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.1429256259066152, "Position_Factor": 1.0189267959999297, "Input_GP": 9, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1214.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2517.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 7.744126804415511, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 12.849494348602022, "Prior_5v5_Min": 11.776666666666667, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.5122000613115089, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0432537120723047, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.062091503267974, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0432537120723047, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.1429256259066152, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 8.23327615780446, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 14.103819784524976, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 1.3333333333333333 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021213", "date": "20260404", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 12.916666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025021028", "date": "20260312", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 13.766666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020186", "date": "20251101", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 12.233333333333333 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "NHL.com October 20 game-specific projected lineup", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. 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Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.1296213396728585, "goalHistoryGoals": 25.0, "goalHistoryShots": 192.0, "goalExpected": 0.3324079000322185, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.34419139531200765, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.28280528056713583, "goalProbability": 0.291206744639892, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.840146407275616 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12849431184474683, "modelSOG": 2.564453514144798, "historyGames": 93, "seasonGames": { "2024": 9, "2025": 75, "2026": 9 }, "historyGoals": 25.0, "historyShots": 192.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.13020833333333334, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.1296213396728585, "goalieFactor": 1.035448902624297, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 59.928573916867464, "btb": { "id": "8484186", "name": "Ryan Leonard", "score": 59.928573916867464, "components": { "Goal model": 88.37209302325581, "SOG model": 88.37209302325581, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 87.20930232558139, "Goalie": 7.794117647058823, "Team H2H": 54.66961237196224, "Goalie H2H": 51.347668079951546 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 3, "goalieH2HShots": 2, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 90 } }, { "id": "8480064", "name": "Josh Norris", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "WSH", "position": "C", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 1.2, "priorSOG": 1.5681818181818181, "currentTOI": 14.675, "currentFiveTOI": 11.446666666666667, "ppShare": 0.29962311557788945, "rate": 1.5239110477004885, "fifty": 1.4354001746755327, "inputs": { "Player": "Josh Norris", "Player_ID": "8480064", "Team": "BUF", "Opponent": "WSH", "Position": "C", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.5167618693671678, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.3148282028558351, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 10, "Prior_GP": 44, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.241700640652301, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.034484950576868, "Current_PP_SOG60": 3.7735849056603774, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 7.111989134461044, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 11.588007575757576, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 11.446666666666667, "Current_PP_Share": 0.29962311557788945, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.6400742508413938, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 954.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3184.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 5, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.493148148148148, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 2.2069187194413575, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 1.6458741624790618, "Other_State_SOG": 0.17363636363636364, "Environment_Proxy": 1.0834850655013406, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.5681818181818181, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/buffalo-sabres/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:39.789404+00:00", "priorGP": 44, "currentTotalSOG": 12.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.59, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.20 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. 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Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480981", "goalieName": "Joel Hofer", "opponent": "CAR", "games": 4, "availableGames": 4, "shotsAgainst": 121.0, "goalsAgainst": 10.0, "savePct": 0.9173553719008265, "gaa": 2.5300442757748263, "gsax": 1.0949999999999998, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020730", "date": "20260113", "goalieTeam": "STL", "opponent": "CAR", "shotsAgainst": 33.0, "goalsAgainst": 0.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.698 }, { "gameId": "2024020284", "date": "20241117", "goalieTeam": "STL", "opponent": "CAR", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.293 }, { "gameId": "2024020084", "date": "20241019", "goalieTeam": "STL", "opponent": "CAR", "shotsAgainst": 40.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.792 }, { "gameId": "2021020216", "date": "20211113", "goalieTeam": "STL", "opponent": "CAR", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3429.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.312 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.8329999999999999, "adjustedSOG": 0.8329999999999999, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.8499999999999999, "adjustedSOG": 0.8329999999999999, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.12475793881135935, "goalHistoryGoals": 0.0, "goalHistoryShots": 3.0, "goalExpected": 0.10604424798965544, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.10376822036108316, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.10061514877612801, "goalProbability": 0.09856579269518277, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.20493560809452388 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12850067697570014, "modelSOG": 0.8329999999999999, "historyGames": 4, "seasonGames": { "2025": 1, "2026": 3 }, "historyGoals": 0.0, "historyShots": 3.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.0, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.12475793881135935, "goalieFactor": 0.9785370006226618, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": 46.00991792065663, "btb": { "id": "8484392", "name": "Felix Unger Sorum", "score": 46.00991792065663, "components": { "Goal model": 37.906976744186046, "SOG model": 17.674418604651162, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 34.41860465116279, "Goalie": 66.02941176470588, "Team H2H": 50.0, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Team H2H unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 0, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 260 } }, { "id": "8478474", "name": "Lawson Crouse", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "TBL", "position": "R", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 1.7, "priorSOG": 1.7407407407407407, "currentTOI": 14.968333333333334, "currentFiveTOI": 12.885, "ppShare": 0.004818503051718599, "rate": 1.5386703212596184, "fifty": 1.5585927158213773, "inputs": { "Player": "Lawson Crouse", "Player_ID": "8478474", "Team": "UTA", "Opponent": "TBL", "Position": "L", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.8872036513330757, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.934566571042783, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 10, "Prior_GP": 81, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 7.450523864959255, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.964746345657781, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 6.691449814126394, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 12.752586419753085, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 12.885, "Current_PP_Share": 0.004818503051718599, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.20920589395732803, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 15.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3113.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 6, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.821018518518519, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.3188367113961613, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.023230092443873366, "Other_State_SOG": 0.17666666666666667, "Environment_Proxy": 0.8844868901771036, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.7407407407407407, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/utah-mammoth/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:39.825236+00:00", "priorGP": 81, "currentTotalSOG": 17.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.025, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.70 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 2.375, "currentIXG": 0.2375, "priorTOI": 16.596913580246913, "priorPPTOI": 0.9962962962962963, "deploymentChange": -1.6285802469135788, "ppTOIChange": -0.9712962962962963, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020825", "date": "20260126", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 17.85 }, { "gameId": "2025020194", "date": "20251102", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 12.683333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024021145", "date": "20250327", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 12.616666666666667 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 1.6666666666666667, "opponentDefense": { "team": "TBL", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 218.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 24.22222222222222, "mostAllowedRank": 29, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.310572168589594, "pkSogAllowed60": 47.9002079002079, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 36.333333333333336, "positionUnassignedSOG": 1.0, "positionTotals": { "L": 36.0, "R": 49.0, "D": 66.0, "C": 66.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.333333333333333, "L": 4.0, "R": 5.444444444444445, "D": 7.333333333333333 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 24.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.25, "positionSourceDifference": 1.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 24.22222222222222, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.444444444444445, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8483710", "team": "TBL", "name": "Dennis Hildeby", "status": "Unconfirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 2, "savePct": 0.92, "gaa": 2.0089285714285716, "gsax": 0.8719999999999999, "goalsAllowed": 4.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.872, "shotsAgainst": 50.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9926942170737747, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Starter remains unconfirmed per Daily Faceoff; no Model Goal adjustment.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": null }, "goalShootingPct": 0.12981581188662564, "goalHistoryGoals": 37.0, "goalHistoryShots": 284.0, "goalExpected": 0.22182188184124502, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.22182188184124502, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.19894196538962072, "goalProbability": 0.19894196538962072, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.7087431693989072, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 7.450523864959255, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 12.885, "Current_PP_Share": 0.004818503051718599, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.821018518518519, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.023230092443873366, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.1, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9588832837562793, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0032616490671127, "Position_Factor": 1.0162667912072254, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 15.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3113.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.964746345657781, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 6.691449814126394, "Prior_5v5_Min": 12.443621399176955, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.20920589395732803, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.005464480874317, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.382352941176471, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.005464480874317, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0032616490671127, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 7.450523864959255, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020825", "date": "20260126", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 17.85 }, { "gameId": "2025020194", "date": "20251102", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 12.683333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024021145", "date": "20250327", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 12.616666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024021111", "date": "20250322", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 12.816666666666666 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 185, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 18, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8483710", "goalieName": "Dennis Hildeby", "starterStatus": "Unconfirmed", "shooterId": "8478474", "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 1, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020733", "date": "20260113", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8483710", "goalieName": "Dennis Hildeby", "opponent": "UTA", "games": 1, "availableGames": 1, "shotsAgainst": 41.0, "goalsAgainst": 6.0, "savePct": 0.8536585365853658, "gaa": 6.0, "gsax": -1.2770000000000001, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020733", "date": "20260113", "goalieTeam": "TOR", "opponent": "UTA", "shotsAgainst": 41.0, "goalsAgainst": 6.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.723 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.7087431693989072, "adjustedSOG": 1.7087431693989072, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.7087431693989072, "adjustedSOG": 1.7087431693989072, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.12981581188662564, "goalHistoryGoals": 37.0, "goalHistoryShots": 284.0, "goalExpected": 0.22182188184124502, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.22182188184124502, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.19894196538962072, "goalProbability": 0.19894196538962072, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12849271764464248, "modelSOG": 1.7087431693989072, "historyGames": 172, "seasonGames": { "2024": 81, "2025": 81, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 37.0, "historyShots": 284.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.13028169014084506, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.12981581188662564, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 58.09953332234588, "btb": { "id": "8478474", "name": "Lawson Crouse", "score": 58.09953332234588, "components": { "Goal model": 72.09302325581395, "SOG model": 65.5813953488372, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 73.25581395348837, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 53.84185005594927, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Unconfirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": 1, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 110 } }, { "id": "8476468", "name": "J.T. Miller", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "OTT", "position": "C", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 1.2727272727272727, "priorSOG": 2.1176470588235294, "currentTOI": 18.546969696969697, "currentFiveTOI": 13.3, "ppShare": 0.6856780735107731, "rate": 1.9273033636464978, "fifty": 1.691090961118431, "inputs": { "Player": "J.T. Miller", "Player_ID": "8476468", "Team": "NYR", "Opponent": "OTT", "Position": "C", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.7538029142382516, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.5944298012447522, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 11, "Prior_GP": 68, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.6910457963089542, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.7225878130074355, "Current_PP_SOG60": 6.654343807763401, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 9.16256157635468, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 13.611838235294119, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 13.3, "Current_PP_Share": 0.6856780735107731, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.8147401765547737, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2164.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3156.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 7, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.145909090909091, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 3.7276795867199097, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 3.52843703191612, "Other_State_SOG": 0.22085561497326203, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9343896732646498, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 2.1176470588235294, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-york-rangers/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:39.841743+00:00", "priorGP": 68, "currentTotalSOG": 14.0, "currentPPTOI": 3.2787878787878793, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.27 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 2.763, "currentIXG": 0.2511818181818182, "priorTOI": 20.14558823529412, "priorPPTOI": 2.985294117647059, "deploymentChange": -1.5986185383244234, "ppTOIChange": 0.2934937611408204, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021119", "date": "20260323", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 22.933333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020737", "date": "20260114", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 18.966666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2025020427", "date": "20251204", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 20.933333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024021003", "date": "20250308", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 17.966666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2024020537", "date": "20241221", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 15.25 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 5, "h2hSOG": 0.4, "opponentDefense": { "team": "OTT", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 255.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 25.5, "mostAllowedRank": 25, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.477120373069077, "pkSogAllowed60": 46.82395644283122, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 38.7, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 67.0, "C": 98.0, "R": 48.0, "L": 42.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.8, "L": 4.2, "R": 4.8, "D": 6.7 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 24.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 22.6, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 25.5, "oppPosSogAllowed": 9.8, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8477992", "team": "OTT", "name": "Jonas Johansson", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 0, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "goalsAllowed": null, "xGoalsAgainst": null, "shotsAgainst": null, "scenarioFactor": 1, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; no matching goalie statistics in this snapshot, so the goalie factor remains neutral.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T15:15:50.280Z", "idResolution": "Exact goalie name mapped to one unique MoneyPuck player ID" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.1363214221276838, "goalHistoryGoals": 41.0, "goalHistoryShots": 295.0, "goalExpected": 0.1754076449534516, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.1754076449534516, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.16088510991028848, "goalProbability": 0.16088510991028848, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.2867210612662048, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.6910457963089542, "Current_PP_SOG60": 6.654343807763401, "Current_5v5_Min": 13.3, "Current_PP_Share": 0.6856780735107731, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.145909090909091, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 3.52843703191612, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.09090909090909091, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9604171757553249, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9920036605974645, "Position_Factor": 1.0136284014991037, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2164.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3156.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.7225878130074355, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 9.16256157635468, "Prior_5v5_Min": 14.339460784313726, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.8147401765547737, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0191828254847646, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.437908496732026, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0191828254847646, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9920036605974645, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 3.6910457963089542, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 6.654343807763401, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 0.6666666666666666 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021119", "date": "20260323", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 22.933333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020737", "date": "20260114", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 18.966666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2025020427", "date": "20251204", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 20.933333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024021003", "date": "20250308", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 17.966666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2024020537", "date": "20241221", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 15.25 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 133, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 59, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477992", "goalieName": "Jonas Johansson", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8476468", "goals": 2, "sog": 5, "shootingPct": 0.4, "gamesWithAttempts": 4, "recordedAttempts": 10, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020391", "date": "20251129", "season": 2025, "goals": 1, "sog": 1, "attempts": 3 }, { "gameId": "2025020265", "date": "20251112", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2024021310", "date": "20250417", "season": 2024, "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2023020055", "date": "20231019", "season": 2023, "goals": 1, "sog": 4, "attempts": 5 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477992", "goalieName": "Jonas Johansson", "opponent": "NYR", "games": 4, "availableGames": 4, "shotsAgainst": 43.0, "goalsAgainst": 6.0, "savePct": 0.8604651162790697, "gaa": 2.615328732292045, "gsax": -1.567, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020391", "date": "20251129", "goalieTeam": "TBL", "opponent": "NYR", "shotsAgainst": 13.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.688 }, { "gameId": "2025020265", "date": "20251112", "goalieTeam": "TBL", "opponent": "NYR", "shotsAgainst": 7.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 993.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 0.748 }, { "gameId": "2024021310", "date": "20250417", "goalieTeam": "TBL", "opponent": "NYR", "shotsAgainst": 22.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3573.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.983 }, { "gameId": "2021020399", "date": "20211208", "goalieTeam": "COL", "opponent": "NYR", "shotsAgainst": 1.0, "goalsAgainst": 0.0, "seconds": 93.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 0.014 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.2867210612662048, "adjustedSOG": 1.2867210612662048, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.3129806747614334, "adjustedSOG": 1.2867210612662048, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.1363214221276838, "goalHistoryGoals": 41.0, "goalHistoryShots": 295.0, "goalExpected": 0.17898739280964449, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.17898739280964449, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.16388355959028728, "goalProbability": 0.16388355959028728, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1284696174043511, "modelSOG": 1.2867210612662048, "historyGames": 151, "seasonGames": { "2024": 72, "2025": 68, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 41.0, "historyShots": 295.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.13898305084745763, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.1363214221276838, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 51.94899508166859, "btb": { "id": "8476468", "name": "J.T. Miller", "score": 51.94899508166859, "components": { "Goal model": 59.76744186046512, "SOG model": 46.51162790697674, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 76.04651162790698, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 33.76849434290688, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 5, "goalieH2HShots": 5, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 187 } }, { "id": "8482679", "name": "Matt Coronato", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "DET", "position": "R", "currentGP": 8, "currentSOG": 2.375, "priorSOG": 2.4625, "currentTOI": 17.654166666666665, "currentFiveTOI": 14.427083333333334, "ppShare": 0.6761049723756906, "rate": 2.582748537230796, "fifty": 2.5286755839264705, "inputs": { "Player": "Matt Coronato", "Player_ID": "8482679", "Team": "CGY", "Opponent": "DET", "Position": "R", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 2.5121161409811745, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 2.2877715646952286, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 8, "Prior_GP": 80, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.1985559566787005, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 8.561438876114279, "Current_PP_SOG60": 22.06332992849847, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 10.912571793235482, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 14.067333333333334, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 14.427083333333334, "Current_PP_Share": 0.6761049723756906, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.6934750930973069, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 979.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1448.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 5, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.265740740740741, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 2.9063174551705115, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 2.8840885256803763, "Other_State_SOG": 0.11625, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9911254066849144, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 2.4625, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:39.859394+00:00", "priorGP": 80, "currentTotalSOG": 19.0, "currentPPTOI": 2.0395833333333333, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.38 SOG/game in 8 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 8 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 2.224, "currentIXG": 0.278, "priorTOI": 16.651666666666667, "priorPPTOI": 2.611666666666667, "deploymentChange": 1.0024999999999977, "ppTOIChange": -0.5720833333333335, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021063", "date": "20260316", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "DET", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 8.0, "toi": 18.55 }, { "gameId": "2025020477", "date": "20251210", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "DET", "venue": "home", "sog": 7.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 8.0, "toi": 21.7 }, { "gameId": "2024020834", "date": "20250201", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "DET", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 19.0 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 4.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "DET", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 243.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.0, "mostAllowedRank": 17, "fiveSogAllowed60": 24.49072666463971, "pkSogAllowed60": 47.14573539288113, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 41.22222222222222, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 39.0, "C": 96.0, "D": 73.0, "L": 35.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.666666666666666, "L": 3.888888888888889, "R": 4.333333333333333, "D": 8.11111111111111 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 29.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 2, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 28.5, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.0, "oppPosSogAllowed": 4.333333333333333, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8476434", "team": "DET", "name": "John Gibson", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 6, "savePct": 0.8734177215189873, "gaa": 3.5755077717634207, "gsax": -1.6310000000000002, "goalsAllowed": 20.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 18.369, "shotsAgainst": 158.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0182492009293351, "factor": 1.0182492009293351, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T17:52:44.365Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.11462878759262181, "goalHistoryGoals": 44.0, "goalHistoryShots": 396.0, "goalExpected": 0.2940975675168182, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.2994646131192613, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.25479621978613975, "goalProbability": 0.2587850487692279, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.3988828983088166, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 8, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 2.565651907285357, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.1985559566787005, "Current_PP_SOG60": 22.06332992849847, "Current_5v5_Min": 14.427083333333334, "Current_PP_Share": 0.6761049723756906, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.265740740740741, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 2.8840885256803763, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.375, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9801217943191682, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9957661672519493, "Position_Factor": 0.9777506151535487, "Input_GP": 8, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 979.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1448.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 8.561438876114279, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 10.912571793235482, "Prior_5v5_Min": 13.227916666666667, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.6934750930973069, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.907679033649698, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.382352941176471, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.907679033649698, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9957661672519493, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.1985559566787005, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 22.06332992849847, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 5.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021063", "date": "20260316", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "DET", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 8.0, "toi": 18.55 }, { "gameId": "2025020477", "date": "20251210", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "DET", "venue": "home", "sog": 7.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 8.0, "toi": 21.7 }, { "gameId": "2024020834", "date": "20250201", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "DET", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 19.0 }, { "gameId": "2024020350", "date": "20241127", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "DET", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 18.083333333333332 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Reviewed October22 projected lineup and coach reports", "ppAssignmentSourceDate": "2026-10-12T17:12:03.968Z", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 221, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 56, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476434", "goalieName": "John Gibson", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8482679", "goals": 3, "sog": 18, "shootingPct": 0.16666666666666666, "gamesWithAttempts": 6, "recordedAttempts": 23, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021063", "date": "20260316", "season": 2025, "goals": 1, "sog": 4, "attempts": 5 }, { "gameId": "2025020477", "date": "20251210", "season": 2025, "goals": 1, "sog": 7, "attempts": 7 }, { "gameId": "2024021203", "date": "20250403", "season": 2024, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 3 }, { "gameId": "2024020818", "date": "20250130", "season": 2024, "goals": 1, "sog": 3, "attempts": 3 }, { "gameId": "2024020648", "date": "20250107", "season": 2024, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 3 }, { "gameId": "2023021268", "date": "20240412", "season": 2023, "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 2 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476434", "goalieName": "John Gibson", "opponent": "CGY", "games": 5, "availableGames": 25, "shotsAgainst": 152.0, "goalsAgainst": 14.0, "savePct": 0.9078947368421053, "gaa": 2.9964328180737216, "gsax": 0.16800000000000015, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021063", "date": "20260316", "goalieTeam": "DET", "opponent": "CGY", "shotsAgainst": 27.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3589.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.703 }, { "gameId": "2025020477", "date": "20251210", "goalieTeam": "DET", "opponent": "CGY", "shotsAgainst": 37.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.965 }, { "gameId": "2024021203", "date": "20250403", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "CGY", "shotsAgainst": 26.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 2381.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.555 }, { "gameId": "2024020818", "date": "20250130", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "CGY", "shotsAgainst": 29.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3525.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.091 }, { "gameId": "2024020648", "date": "20250107", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "CGY", "shotsAgainst": 33.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3725.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.854 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 2.565651907285357, "adjustedSOG": 2.565651907285357, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 2.565651907285357, "adjustedSOG": 2.565651907285357, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.11462878759262181, "goalHistoryGoals": 44.0, "goalHistoryShots": 396.0, "goalExpected": 0.2940975675168182, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.2940975675168182, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.25479621978613975, "goalProbability": 0.25479621978613975, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12855878645940413, "modelSOG": 2.565651907285357, "historyGames": 165, "seasonGames": { "2024": 77, "2025": 80, "2026": 8 }, "historyGoals": 44.0, "historyShots": 396.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.1111111111111111, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.11462878759262181, "goalieFactor": 1.0182492009293351, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 59.197781154953645, "btb": { "id": "8482679", "name": "Matt Coronato", "score": 59.197781154953645, "components": { "Goal model": 84.65116279069767, "SOG model": 88.83720930232558, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 78.37209302325581, "Goalie": 2.5, "Team H2H": 58.392390898918315, "Goalie H2H": 59.79620194534507 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": 18, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 95 } }, { "id": "8478831", "name": "Kevin Stenlund", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "TBL", "position": "C", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 0.8, "priorSOG": 0.825, "currentTOI": 13.844999999999999, "currentFiveTOI": 11.355, "ppShare": 0.0057822036620623195, "rate": 0.7482908854290813, "fifty": 0.7851105811982572, "inputs": { "Player": "Kevin Stenlund", "Player_ID": "8478831", "Team": "UTA", "Opponent": "TBL", "Position": "C", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 0.8985896322889338, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 0.895402489097023, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 10, "Prior_GP": 80, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.227212681638045, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.6346318697018765, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 3.2697547683923704, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 11.2294375, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 11.355, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0057822036620623195, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.04816499078120733, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 18.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3113.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 6, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.821018518518519, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.08917457140299591, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.02787611093264804, "Other_State_SOG": 0.135, "Environment_Proxy": 0.8844868901771036, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 0.825, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/utah-mammoth/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:39.876003+00:00", "priorGP": 80, "currentTotalSOG": 8.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.03, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.80 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.851, "currentIXG": 0.0851, "priorTOI": 14.478541666666667, "priorPPTOI": 0.22937500000000002, "deploymentChange": -0.6335416666666678, "ppTOIChange": -0.19937500000000002, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020825", "date": "20260126", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 13.783333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020194", "date": "20251102", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 13.816666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024021145", "date": "20250327", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 13.15 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 0.3333333333333333, "opponentDefense": { "team": "TBL", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 218.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 24.22222222222222, "mostAllowedRank": 29, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.310572168589594, "pkSogAllowed60": 47.9002079002079, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 36.333333333333336, "positionUnassignedSOG": 1.0, "positionTotals": { "L": 36.0, "R": 49.0, "D": 66.0, "C": 66.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.333333333333333, "L": 4.0, "R": 5.444444444444445, "D": 7.333333333333333 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 24.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.25, "positionSourceDifference": 1.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 24.22222222222222, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.333333333333333, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8483710", "team": "TBL", "name": "Dennis Hildeby", "status": "Unconfirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 2, "savePct": 0.92, "gaa": 2.0089285714285716, "gsax": 0.8719999999999999, "goalsAllowed": 4.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.872, "shotsAgainst": 50.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9926942170737747, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Starter remains unconfirmed per Daily Faceoff; no Model Goal adjustment.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": null }, "goalShootingPct": 0.11499301264165947, "goalHistoryGoals": 19.0, "goalHistoryShots": 177.0, "goalExpected": 0.08227725744863801, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.08227725744863801, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.07898343540982605, "goalProbability": 0.07898343540982605, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 0.7154978859892114, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.227212681638045, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 11.355, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0057822036620623195, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.821018518518519, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.02787611093264804, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9588832837562793, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0032616490671127, "Position_Factor": 0.985038993166415, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 18.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3113.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.6346318697018765, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 3.2697547683923704, "Prior_5v5_Min": 10.936458333333333, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.04816499078120733, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.894372357486514, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.437908496732026, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.894372357486514, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0032616490671127, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 4.227212681638045, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020825", "date": "20260126", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 13.783333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020194", "date": "20251102", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 13.816666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024021145", "date": "20250327", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 13.15 }, { "gameId": "2024021111", "date": "20250322", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 16.1 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 95, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8483710", "goalieName": "Dennis Hildeby", "starterStatus": "Unconfirmed", "shooterId": "8478831", "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 3, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020733", "date": "20260113", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 3 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8483710", "goalieName": "Dennis Hildeby", "opponent": "UTA", "games": 1, "availableGames": 1, "shotsAgainst": 41.0, "goalsAgainst": 6.0, "savePct": 0.8536585365853658, "gaa": 6.0, "gsax": -1.2770000000000001, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020733", "date": "20260113", "goalieTeam": "TOR", "opponent": "UTA", "shotsAgainst": 41.0, "goalsAgainst": 6.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.723 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.7154978859892114, "adjustedSOG": 0.7154978859892114, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.7154978859892114, "adjustedSOG": 0.7154978859892114, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.11499301264165947, "goalHistoryGoals": 19.0, "goalHistoryShots": 177.0, "goalExpected": 0.08227725744863801, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.08227725744863801, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.07898343540982605, "goalProbability": 0.07898343540982605, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12853064501739672, "modelSOG": 0.7154978859892114, "historyGames": 172, "seasonGames": { "2024": 82, "2025": 80, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 19.0, "historyShots": 177.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.10734463276836158, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.11499301264165947, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 39.33830660201417, "btb": { "id": "8478831", "name": "Kevin Stenlund", "score": 39.33830660201417, "components": { "Goal model": 29.302325581395348, "SOG model": 13.720930232558139, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 19.53488372093023, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 38.92204401342782, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Unconfirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": 0, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 360 } }, { "id": "8480762", "name": "Eric Robinson", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "STL", "position": "L", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 1.5454545454545454, "priorSOG": 1.2537313432835822, "currentTOI": 12.51969696969697, "currentFiveTOI": 10.607575757575757, "ppShare": 0.020066889632107024, "rate": 1.3117560234155052, "fifty": 1.3977165742882425, "inputs": { "Player": "Eric Robinson", "Player_ID": "8480762", "Team": "CAR", "Opponent": "STL", "Position": "L", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.3359621915734123, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.3193833787500595, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 11, "Prior_GP": 67, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 7.713183830881302, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.827631482967393, "Current_PP_SOG60": 42.857142857142854, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 17.733990147783253, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 10.494482134780641, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 10.607575757575757, "Current_PP_Share": 0.020066889632107024, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.011428455302079626, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 84.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 4186.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 7, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 6.0017676767676775, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.10488304678529274, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.12043680956724437, "Other_State_SOG": 0.0762550881953867, "Environment_Proxy": 1.00049372648272, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.2537313432835822, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:39.892930+00:00", "priorGP": 67, "currentTotalSOG": 17.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.12727272727272726, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.55 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.678, "currentIXG": 0.15254545454545454, "priorTOI": 11.427860696517412, "priorPPTOI": 0.05049751243781094, "deploymentChange": 1.091836273179558, "ppTOIChange": 0.07677521483491631, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021033", "date": "20260312", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "STL", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 10.466666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020730", "date": "20260113", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "STL", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 14.333333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020284", "date": "20241117", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "STL", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 12.266666666666667 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 1.3333333333333333, "opponentDefense": { "team": "STL", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 246.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.333333333333332, "mostAllowedRank": 15, "fiveSogAllowed60": 24.991224991224993, "pkSogAllowed60": 45.92737978410206, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 41.333333333333336, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 29.0, "L": 56.0, "D": 69.0, "C": 92.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.222222222222221, "L": 6.222222222222222, "R": 3.2222222222222223, "D": 7.666666666666667 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 27.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 3, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27.666666666666668, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.333333333333332, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.222222222222222, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8480981", "team": "STL", "name": "Joel Hofer", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 6, "savePct": 0.9192546583850931, "gaa": 2.1949160491511117, "gsax": 2.83, "goalsAllowed": 13.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 15.83, "shotsAgainst": 161.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9785370006226618, "factor": 0.9785370006226618, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T15:44:23.131Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.13134705040681313, "goalHistoryGoals": 28.0, "goalHistoryShots": 211.0, "goalExpected": 0.21716726772983128, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.21250620679776766, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.1952046582439012, "goalProbability": 0.19144470223333931, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.37599560105618934, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.6533851887591877, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 7.713183830881302, "Current_PP_SOG60": 42.857142857142854, "Current_5v5_Min": 10.607575757575757, "Current_PP_Share": 0.020066889632107024, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 6.0017676767676775, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.12043680956724437, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.09090909090909091, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9895702550696535, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9828075032932179, "Position_Factor": 1.0266176530305278, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 84.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 4186.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.827631482967393, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 17.733990147783253, "Prior_5v5_Min": 10.230597014925374, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.011428455302079626, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.1085590024124223, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.062091503267974, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.1085590024124223, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9828075032932179, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 7.713183830881302, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 42.857142857142854, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021033", "date": "20260312", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "STL", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 10.466666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020730", "date": "20260113", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "STL", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 14.333333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020284", "date": "20241117", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "STL", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 12.266666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020084", "date": "20241019", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "STL", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 10.966666666666667 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Reviewed October22 projected lineup and coach reports", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 130, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. 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Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480981", "goalieName": "Joel Hofer", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8480762", "goals": 1, "sog": 3, "shootingPct": 0.3333333333333333, "gamesWithAttempts": 2, "recordedAttempts": 6, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020730", "date": "20260113", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 4 }, { "gameId": "2024020284", "date": "20241117", "season": 2024, "goals": 1, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480981", "goalieName": "Joel Hofer", "opponent": "CAR", "games": 4, "availableGames": 4, "shotsAgainst": 121.0, "goalsAgainst": 10.0, "savePct": 0.9173553719008265, "gaa": 2.5300442757748263, "gsax": 1.0949999999999998, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020730", "date": "20260113", "goalieTeam": "STL", "opponent": "CAR", "shotsAgainst": 33.0, "goalsAgainst": 0.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.698 }, { "gameId": "2024020284", "date": "20241117", "goalieTeam": "STL", "opponent": "CAR", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.293 }, { "gameId": "2024020084", "date": "20241019", "goalieTeam": "STL", "opponent": "CAR", "shotsAgainst": 40.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.792 }, { "gameId": "2021020216", "date": "20211113", "goalieTeam": "STL", "opponent": "CAR", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3429.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.312 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.6533851887591877, "adjustedSOG": 1.6533851887591877, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.6871277436318242, "adjustedSOG": 1.6533851887591877, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. 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MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020891", "date": "20260203", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "TOR", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 21.566666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020971", "date": "20250303", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "TOR", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 27.633333333333333 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Reviewed October22 projected lineup and coach reports", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 116, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. 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Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476932", "goalieName": "Anthony Stolarz", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8478013", "goals": 1, "sog": 5, "shootingPct": 0.2, "gamesWithAttempts": 2, "recordedAttempts": 7, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020891", "date": "20260203", "season": 2025, "goals": 1, "sog": 4, "attempts": 4 }, { "gameId": "2024020971", "date": "20250303", "season": 2024, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 3 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476932", "goalieName": "Anthony Stolarz", "opponent": "EDM", "games": 5, "availableGames": 5, "shotsAgainst": 140.0, "goalsAgainst": 14.0, "savePct": 0.9, "gaa": 3.2642487046632125, "gsax": -1.5539999999999994, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020891", "date": "20260203", "goalieTeam": "TOR", "opponent": "EDM", "shotsAgainst": 36.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.709 }, { "gameId": "2024020274", "date": "20241116", "goalieTeam": "TOR", "opponent": "EDM", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3640.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.584 }, { "gameId": "2022020660", "date": "20230111", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "EDM", "shotsAgainst": 16.0, "goalsAgainst": 0.0, "seconds": 1200.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.249 }, { "gameId": "2021020049", "date": "20211019", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "EDM", "shotsAgainst": 36.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3461.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.959 }, { "gameId": "2018020494", "date": "20181214", "goalieTeam": "PHI", "opponent": "EDM", "shotsAgainst": 22.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3539.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.945 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.0467442972996124, "adjustedSOG": 1.0467442972996124, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.0467442972996124, "adjustedSOG": 1.0467442972996124, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.05674335734758696, "goalHistoryGoals": 15.0, "goalHistoryShots": 266.0, "goalExpected": 0.05939578571322071, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.05939578571322071, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.05766626688785097, "goalProbability": 0.05766626688785097, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05768068789216826, "modelSOG": 1.0467442972996124, "historyGames": 124, "seasonGames": { "2024": 65, "2025": 53, "2026": 6 }, "historyGoals": 15.0, "historyShots": 266.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.05639097744360902, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.05674335734758696, "goalieFactor": 0.9986972168772468, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 42.93291815814502, "btb": { "id": "8478013", "name": "Jake Walman", "score": 42.93291815814502, "components": { "Goal model": 19.53488372093023, "SOG model": 32.325581395348834, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 22.558139534883722, "Goalie": 60.73529411764706, "Team H2H": 57.76762402088773, "Goalie H2H": 54.15175375805297 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 2, "goalieH2HShots": 5, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 306 } }, { "id": "8475200", "name": "Dmitry Orlov", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "BOS", "position": "D", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 0.9, "priorSOG": 1.1097560975609757, "currentTOI": 18.325, "currentFiveTOI": 15.225, "ppShare": 0.3984014755610206, "rate": 1.0228995337866396, "fifty": 0.9780786864785995, "inputs": { "Player": "Dmitry Orlov", "Player_ID": "8475200", "Team": "SJS", "Opponent": "BOS", "Position": "D", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 0.9497027727845034, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 0.8232029133725832, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 10, "Prior_GP": 82, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.7586206896551726, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 2.944716454187457, "Current_PP_SOG60": 5.555555555555555, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 4.88135593220339, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 15.87560975609756, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 15.225, "Current_PP_Share": 0.3984014755610206, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.47726518957135133, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1296.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3253.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 5, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.0425, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 2.1282405238855744, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 2.0089394405164467, "Other_State_SOG": 0.032926829268292684, "Environment_Proxy": 1.0253180054689388, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.1097560975609757, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:39.927546+00:00", "priorGP": 82, "currentTotalSOG": 9.0, "currentPPTOI": 2.16, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.90 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.489, "currentIXG": 0.0489, "priorTOI": 21.195731707317073, "priorPPTOI": 2.3983739837398375, "deploymentChange": -2.8707317073170735, "ppTOIChange": -0.23837398373983731, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2026020105", "date": "20261013", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 19.533333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2025021027", "date": "20260312", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 21.066666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020351", "date": "20251123", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 18.2 }, { "gameId": "2024021214", "date": "20250405", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 22.6 }, { "gameId": "2024020165", "date": "20241031", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "home", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 9.0, "toi": 20.183333333333334 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 5, "h2hSOG": 1.4, "opponentDefense": { "team": "BOS", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 280.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 28.0, "mostAllowedRank": 11, "fiveSogAllowed60": 26.539776154413243, "pkSogAllowed60": 48.89206576125804, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 42.4, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 68.0, "R": 50.0, "L": 68.0, "C": 94.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.4, "L": 6.8, "R": 5.0, "D": 6.8 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 26.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 25.0, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 28.0, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.8, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8480280", "team": "BOS", "name": "Jeremy Swayman", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 8, "savePct": 0.9279279279279279, "gaa": 1.976189659313137, "gsax": 7.695, "goalsAllowed": 16.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 23.695, "shotsAgainst": 222.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9412127550171275, "factor": 0.9412127550171275, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T14:59:19.712Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.04975745902381824, "goalHistoryGoals": 10.0, "goalHistoryShots": 217.0, "goalExpected": 0.042057837328764294, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.03958537294226843, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.041185676290502696, "goalProbability": 0.038812108950660985, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.23735673398417104, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 0.8452569354201098, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.7586206896551726, "Current_PP_SOG60": 5.555555555555555, "Current_5v5_Min": 15.225, "Current_PP_Share": 0.3984014755610206, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.0425, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 2.0089394405164467, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0194233133624404, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.013580746919003, "Position_Factor": 0.9875428952719878, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1296.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3253.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 2.944716454187457, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 4.88135593220339, "Prior_5v5_Min": 17.39369918699187, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.47726518957135133, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9628113879003559, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.34640522875817, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9628113879003559, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.013580746919003, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 2.7586206896551726, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 5.555555555555555, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.0 }, { "season": "2026", "label": "2026–27", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 0.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2026020105", "date": "20261013", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 19.533333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2025021027", "date": "20260312", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 21.066666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020351", "date": "20251123", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 18.2 }, { "gameId": "2024021214", "date": "20250405", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 22.6 }, { "gameId": "2024020165", "date": "20241031", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "home", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 9.0, "toi": 20.183333333333334 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Reviewed October22 projected lineup and coach reports", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 115, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 25, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480280", "goalieName": "Jeremy Swayman", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8475200", "goals": 0, "sog": 11, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 8, "recordedAttempts": 19, "log": [ { "gameId": "2026020105", "date": "20261013", "season": 2026, "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2025021027", "date": "20260312", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2025020351", "date": "20251123", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 3 }, { "gameId": "2024021214", "date": "20250405", "season": 2024, "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2024020165", "date": "20241031", "season": 2024, "goals": 0, "sog": 4, "attempts": 5 }, { "gameId": "2023021239", "date": "20240409", "season": 2023, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 4 }, { "gameId": "2023021202", "date": "20240404", "season": 2023, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2 }, { "gameId": "2022020838", "date": "20230211", "season": 2022, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480280", "goalieName": "Jeremy Swayman", "opponent": "SJS", "games": 5, "availableGames": 6, "shotsAgainst": 123.0, "goalsAgainst": 9.0, "savePct": 0.926829268292683, "gaa": 2.2632020117351215, "gsax": 2.58, "log": [ { "gameId": "2026020105", "date": "20261013", "goalieTeam": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "shotsAgainst": 38.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.146 }, { "gameId": "2025021027", "date": "20260312", "goalieTeam": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "shotsAgainst": 28.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3406.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.91 }, { "gameId": "2025020351", "date": "20251123", "goalieTeam": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3588.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.577 }, { "gameId": "2023020340", "date": "20231130", "goalieTeam": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "shotsAgainst": 26.0, "goalsAgainst": 0.0, "seconds": 3574.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.886 }, { "gameId": "2022020748", "date": "20230122", "goalieTeam": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "shotsAgainst": 1.0, "goalsAgainst": 0.0, "seconds": 148.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 0.061 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.8452569354201098, "adjustedSOG": 0.8452569354201098, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.8625070769592957, "adjustedSOG": 0.8452569354201098, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.04975745902381824, "goalHistoryGoals": 10.0, "goalHistoryShots": 217.0, "goalExpected": 0.0429161605395554, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.040393237696192276, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.04200829579217231, "goalProbability": 0.039588305196728395, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.24199905954439133 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05773114510550384, "modelSOG": 0.8452569354201098, "historyGames": 168, "seasonGames": { "2024": 76, "2025": 82, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 10.0, "historyShots": 217.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.04608294930875576, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.04975745902381824, "goalieFactor": 0.9412127550171275, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 34.03934490170561, "btb": { "id": "8475200", "name": "Dmitry Orlov", "score": 34.03934490170561, "components": { "Goal model": 11.86046511627907, "SOG model": 18.6046511627907, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 9.30232558139535, "Goalie": 34.26470588235294, "Team H2H": 47.95474325500435, "Goalie H2H": 41.87104685684781 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 5, "goalieH2HShots": 11, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 416 } }, { "id": "8477919", "name": "Frederick Gaudreau", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "position": "C", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 1.2, "priorSOG": 1.0294117647058822, "currentTOI": 15.315000000000001, "currentFiveTOI": 12.343333333333334, "ppShare": 0.0186219739292365, "rate": 0.9488179797479235, "fifty": 1.0032195253569516, "inputs": { "Player": "Frederick Gaudreau", "Player_ID": "8477919", "Team": "SEA", "Opponent": "MIN", "Position": "C", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.1170530606586593, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.2750406405987045, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 10, "Prior_GP": 68, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.347015933027275, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.86153734273871, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 18.493150684931507, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 12.684745098039215, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 12.343333333333334, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0186219739292365, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.06876827698474194, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 50.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2685.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 6, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.085, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.17119092274134112, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.09469273743016761, "Other_State_SOG": 0.07617647058823529, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9620662188708584, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.0294117647058822, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/seattle-kraken/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:39.943787+00:00", "priorGP": 68, "currentTotalSOG": 12.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.08333333333333334, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.20 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. 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MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021240", "date": "20260407", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 16.733333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020693", "date": "20260108", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 19.9 }, { "gameId": "2025020465", "date": "20251208", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 13.083333333333334 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. 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Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482661", "goalieName": "Jesper Wallstedt", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8477919", "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 3, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020693", "date": "20260108", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 3 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482661", "goalieName": "Jesper Wallstedt", "opponent": "SEA", "games": 2, "availableGames": 2, "shotsAgainst": 55.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "savePct": 0.9272727272727272, "gaa": 1.9647973802701597, "gsax": 2.874, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021240", "date": "20260407", "goalieTeam": "MIN", "opponent": "SEA", "shotsAgainst": 27.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.053 }, { "gameId": "2025020693", "date": "20260108", "goalieTeam": "MIN", "opponent": "SEA", "shotsAgainst": 28.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3729.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.821 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.314342105263158, "adjustedSOG": 1.314342105263158, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.314342105263158, "adjustedSOG": 1.314342105263158, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.14672934892546882, "goalHistoryGoals": 30.0, "goalHistoryShots": 192.0, "goalExpected": 0.1928525613705932, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.1928525613705932, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.17539645640685753, "goalProbability": 0.17539645640685753, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12844969886236896, "modelSOG": 1.314342105263158, "historyGames": 160, "seasonGames": { "2024": 82, "2025": 68, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 30.0, "historyShots": 192.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.15625, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.14672934892546882, "goalieFactor": 0.9495343259526882, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 47.97239425763352, "btb": { "id": "8477919", "name": "Frederick Gaudreau", "score": 47.97239425763352, "components": { "Goal model": 65.34883720930233, "SOG model": 48.13953488372093, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 38.48837209302326, "Goalie": 23.676470588235293, "Team H2H": 41.805583450492065, "Goalie H2H": 50.08328285887341 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 3, "goalieH2HShots": 2, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 231 } }, { "id": "8481563", "name": "Drew Helleson", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "PHI", "position": "D", "currentGP": 3, "currentSOG": 1.3333333333333333, "priorSOG": 0.65, "currentTOI": 18.900000000000002, "currentFiveTOI": 15.977777777777776, "ppShare": 0.0020470829068577278, "rate": 0.8197865803314934, "fifty": 1.0975722882770125, "inputs": { "Player": "Drew Helleson", "Player_ID": "8481563", "Team": "ANA", "Opponent": "PHI", "Position": "D", "Current_GP": 3, "Prior_GP": 60, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.006954102920723, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 2.451593904144887, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 15.71211111111111, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 15.977777777777776, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0020470829068577278, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.01617965956081378, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 977.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 2, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Measured game-matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Historical skater-team PP minute approximation, existing hybrid method", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.388425925925926, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.03387625734052566, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.011030554607831988, "Other_State_SOG": 0.03, "Environment_Proxy": 1.15, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 0.65, "Status": "Historical input object restored from saved prior summaries", "Availability_Note": "Conditional on dressing", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 0.6951132493505028, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 0.9757929259419861 }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/anaheim-ducks/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:39.961012+00:00", "priorGP": 60, "currentTotalSOG": 4.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.011111111111111112, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.33 SOG/game in 3 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 3 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.245, "currentIXG": 0.08166666666666667, "priorTOI": 16.96472222222222, "priorPPTOI": 0.08472222222222221, "deploymentChange": 1.935277777777781, "ppTOIChange": -0.0736111111111111, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020670", "date": "20260106", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 13.95 }, { "gameId": "2024020675", "date": "20250111", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 16.466666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2024020568", "date": "20241228", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 15.816666666666666 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 3, "h2hSOG": 0.3333333333333333, "opponentDefense": { "team": "PHI", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 383.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 31.916666666666668, "mostAllowedRank": 2, "fiveSogAllowed60": 31.042564889030356, "pkSogAllowed60": 46.879209699146834, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.75, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 113.0, "C": 130.0, "R": 73.0, "L": 67.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.833333333333334, "L": 5.583333333333333, "R": 6.083333333333333, "D": 9.416666666666666 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 27.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.833333333333332, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 31.916666666666668, "oppPosSogAllowed": 9.416666666666666, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8479361", "team": "PHI", "name": "Joseph Woll", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 6, "savePct": 0.9166666666666666, "gaa": 2.640143007746253, "gsax": 4.5710000000000015, "goalsAllowed": 16.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 20.571, "shotsAgainst": 192.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9655996195755495, "factor": 0.9655996195755495, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T14:50:13.988Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.0571239746705121, "goalHistoryGoals": 6.0, "goalHistoryShots": 106.0, "goalExpected": 0.08583829260488948, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.082885422684296, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.08225737500908828, "goalProbability": 0.07954339537452387, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.2713979634564406, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": null, "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 3, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.5026666666666662, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.006954102920723, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 15.977777777777776, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0020470829068577278, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.388425925925926, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.011030554607831988, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.1165260841882552, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9915761915723407, "Position_Factor": 1.0127905449409682, "Input_GP": 3, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 977.0, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.15, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.34640522875817, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9915761915723407, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.006954102920723, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 0.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020670", "date": "20260106", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 13.95 }, { "gameId": "2024020675", "date": "20250111", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 16.466666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2024020568", "date": "20241228", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 15.816666666666666 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. 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Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479361", "goalieName": "Joseph Woll", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8481563", "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 2, "recordedAttempts": 3, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021029", "date": "20260312", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2024021176", "date": "20250330", "season": 2024, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479361", "goalieName": "Joseph Woll", "opponent": "ANA", "games": 3, "availableGames": 3, "shotsAgainst": 91.0, "goalsAgainst": 7.0, "savePct": 0.9230769230769231, "gaa": 2.6359832635983262, "gsax": 2.575, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021029", "date": "20260312", "goalieTeam": "TOR", "opponent": "ANA", "shotsAgainst": 40.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3567.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.449 }, { "gameId": "2024021176", "date": "20250330", "goalieTeam": "TOR", "opponent": "ANA", "shotsAgainst": 31.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3593.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.338 }, { "gameId": "2024020459", "date": "20241212", "goalieTeam": "TOR", "opponent": "ANA", "shotsAgainst": 20.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 2400.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.788 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.5026666666666662, "adjustedSOG": 1.5026666666666662, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.5333333333333328, "adjustedSOG": 1.5026666666666662, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. 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MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 41, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. 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Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478916", "goalieName": "Joey Daccord", "opponent": "MIN", "games": 5, "availableGames": 6, "shotsAgainst": 123.0, "goalsAgainst": 19.0, "savePct": 0.8455284552845528, "gaa": 4.3387250237868695, "gsax": -6.912000000000001, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021240", "date": "20260407", "goalieTeam": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 28.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3488.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.569 }, { "gameId": "2024020982", "date": "20250304", "goalieTeam": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 20.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3463.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.635 }, { "gameId": "2024020033", "date": "20241012", "goalieTeam": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 38.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3885.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.839 }, { "gameId": "2023021307", "date": "20240418", "goalieTeam": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.121 }, { "gameId": "2023020913", "date": "20240224", "goalieTeam": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 13.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 1329.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.924 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.0514280180761784, "adjustedSOG": 1.0514280180761784, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.0728857327307944, "adjustedSOG": 1.0514280180761784, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.11424136151454238, "goalHistoryGoals": 2.0, "goalHistoryShots": 30.0, "goalExpected": 0.12256792685669338, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.12256792685669338, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.11535418830674142, "goalProbability": 0.11535418830674142, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1285137699689051, "modelSOG": 1.0514280180761784, "historyGames": 36, "seasonGames": { "2025": 32, "2026": 4 }, "historyGoals": 2.0, "historyShots": 30.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.06666666666666667, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.11424136151454238, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": 48.395348837209305, "btb": { "id": "8475752", "name": "Tyler Pitlick", "score": 48.395348837209305, "components": { "Goal model": 43.25581395348837, "SOG model": 33.25581395348837, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 55.81395348837209, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 50.0, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral", "Team H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Likely", "h2hGames": 0, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 224 } }, { "id": "8480015", "name": "Owen Tippett", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "ANA", "position": "R", "currentGP": 9, "currentSOG": 2.3333333333333335, "priorSOG": 2.728395061728395, "currentTOI": 16.44074074074074, "currentFiveTOI": 13.631481481481481, "ppShare": 0.3859922178988327, "rate": 2.684239275719454, "fifty": 2.635904681713141, "inputs": { "Player": "Owen Tippett", "Player_ID": "8480015", "Team": "PHI", "Opponent": "ANA", "Position": "R", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 2.958531991441517, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 3.0603398737220693, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 9, "Prior_GP": 81, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 8.803151745686728, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 8.648946426112106, "Current_PP_SOG60": 10.887096774193548, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 14.145383104125736, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 13.575925925925926, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 13.631481481481481, "Current_PP_Share": 0.3859922178988327, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.49192724502356494, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 992.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2570.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 7, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.042592592592593, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 2.1066576536976207, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 1.9464014987750398, "Other_State_SOG": 0.24444444444444444, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9949214190083264, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 2.728395061728395, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/philadelphia-flyers/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:40.019392+00:00", "priorGP": 81, "currentTotalSOG": 21.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.8370370370370372, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.33 SOG/game in 9 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 9 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.484, "currentIXG": 0.1648888888888889, "priorTOI": 16.843004115226336, "priorPPTOI": 2.0946502057613166, "deploymentChange": -0.4022633744855959, "ppTOIChange": -0.2576131687242793, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021082", "date": "20260318", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "away", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 16.4 }, { "gameId": "2025020670", "date": "20260106", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 10.0, "toi": 20.2 }, { "gameId": "2024020675", "date": "20250111", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "home", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 15.15 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 4.666666666666667, "opponentDefense": { "team": "ANA", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 239.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 26.555555555555557, "mostAllowedRank": 18, "fiveSogAllowed60": 25.834281008587897, "pkSogAllowed60": 38.93928820655967, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 43.333333333333336, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 54.0, "C": 91.0, "R": 57.0, "L": 37.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.11111111111111, "L": 4.111111111111111, "R": 6.333333333333333, "D": 6.0 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 28.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.2, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 26.555555555555557, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.333333333333333, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8480843", "team": "ANA", "name": "Lukas Dostal", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.8813559322033898, "gaa": 3.1634446397188047, "gsax": 2.846, "goalsAllowed": 21.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 23.846, "shotsAgainst": 177.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9815060369171769, "factor": 0.9815060369171769, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T16:38:16.530Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.11670814380969878, "goalHistoryGoals": 49.0, "goalHistoryShots": 430.0, "goalExpected": 0.29053153088588957, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.2851584514792898, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.252134051935501, "goalProbability": 0.24810489401179736, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.4029157923703619, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 9, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 2.489385242555332, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 8.803151745686728, "Current_PP_SOG60": 10.887096774193548, "Current_5v5_Min": 13.631481481481481, "Current_PP_Share": 0.3859922178988327, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.042592592592593, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.9464014987750398, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0050173142237073, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9117211340641708, "Position_Factor": 1.0244899837906722, "Input_GP": 9, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 992.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2570.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 8.648946426112106, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 14.145383104125736, "Prior_5v5_Min": 13.446296296296298, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.49192724502356494, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0836928386540121, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.382352941176471, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0836928386540121, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9117211340641708, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 8.803151745686728, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 10.887096774193548, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 3.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 4.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021082", "date": "20260318", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "away", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 16.4 }, { "gameId": "2025020670", "date": "20260106", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 10.0, "toi": 20.2 }, { "gameId": "2024020675", "date": "20250111", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "home", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 15.15 }, { "gameId": "2024020568", "date": "20241228", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 15.466666666666667 } ], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff latest reported chart; October 21 final lineup pending", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 230, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 62, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480843", "goalieName": "Lukas Dostal", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8480015", "goals": 2, "sog": 22, "shootingPct": 0.09090909090909091, "gamesWithAttempts": 5, "recordedAttempts": 32, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021082", "date": "20260318", "season": 2025, "goals": 1, "sog": 5, "attempts": 6 }, { "gameId": "2025020670", "date": "20260106", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 4, "attempts": 9 }, { "gameId": "2024020568", "date": "20241228", "season": 2024, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 3 }, { "gameId": "2023020208", "date": "20231110", "season": 2023, "goals": 1, "sog": 3, "attempts": 4 }, { "gameId": "2023020117", "date": "20231028", "season": 2023, "goals": 0, "sog": 8, "attempts": 10 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480843", "goalieName": "Lukas Dostal", "opponent": "PHI", "games": 5, "availableGames": 5, "shotsAgainst": 155.0, "goalsAgainst": 18.0, "savePct": 0.8838709677419355, "gaa": 3.646595385481148, "gsax": -2.507999999999999, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021082", "date": "20260318", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 28.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3704.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.611 }, { "gameId": "2025020670", "date": "20260106", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 38.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3560.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.171 }, { "gameId": "2024020568", "date": "20241228", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3472.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.781 }, { "gameId": "2023020208", "date": "20231110", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 35.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3450.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.281 }, { "gameId": "2023020117", "date": "20231028", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3584.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.648 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 2.489385242555332, "adjustedSOG": 2.489385242555332, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 2.489385242555332, "adjustedSOG": 2.489385242555332, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.11670814380969878, "goalHistoryGoals": 49.0, "goalHistoryShots": 430.0, "goalExpected": 0.29053153088588957, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.29053153088588957, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.252134051935501, "goalProbability": 0.252134051935501, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12855316219140356, "modelSOG": 2.489385242555332, "historyGames": 167, "seasonGames": { "2024": 77, "2025": 81, "2026": 9 }, "historyGoals": 49.0, "historyShots": 430.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.11395348837209303, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.11670814380969878, "goalieFactor": 0.9815060369171769, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8480995", "name": "Pontus Holmberg", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "UTA", "position": "C", "currentGP": 9, "currentSOG": 1.6666666666666667, "priorSOG": 1.3, "currentTOI": 14.507407407407406, "currentFiveTOI": 13.070370370370371, "ppShare": 0.18767029972752045, "rate": 1.1985479405775896, "fifty": 1.3024361553239245, "inputs": { "Player": "Pontus Holmberg", "Player_ID": "8480995", "Team": "TBL", "Opponent": "UTA", "Position": "R", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.2598974859230667, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.289283154032615, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 9, "Prior_GP": 70, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 6.630773590252196, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.808174467769454, "Current_PP_SOG60": 13.067150635208712, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 6.196213425129088, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 13.000973544973546, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 13.070370370370371, "Current_PP_Share": 0.18767029972752045, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.027307013320494306, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 551.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2936.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 5, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.626018518518518, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.6456132221326127, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.8681662819154303, "Other_State_SOG": 0.038571428571428576, "Environment_Proxy": 0.85, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.3, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:40.039581+00:00", "priorGP": 70.0, "currentTotalSOG": 15.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.0203703703703704, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.67 SOG/game in 9 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 9 games. 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excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478872", "goalieName": "Karel Vejmelka", "opponent": "TBL", "games": 5, "availableGames": 6, "shotsAgainst": 128.0, "goalsAgainst": 18.0, "savePct": 0.859375, "gaa": 4.0538004379105415, "gsax": -5.162, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020825", "date": "20260126", "goalieTeam": "UTA", "opponent": "TBL", "shotsAgainst": 29.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.389 }, { "gameId": "2025020194", "date": "20251102", "goalieTeam": "UTA", "opponent": "TBL", "shotsAgainst": 25.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3527.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.366 }, { "gameId": "2024021145", "date": "20250327", "goalieTeam": "UTA", "opponent": "TBL", "shotsAgainst": 12.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 1754.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.834 }, { "gameId": "2024021111", "date": "20250322", "goalieTeam": "UTA", "opponent": "TBL", "shotsAgainst": 27.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.77 }, { "gameId": "2022020582", "date": "20221231", "goalieTeam": "ARI", "opponent": "TBL", "shotsAgainst": 35.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3504.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.479 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.385470287430828, "adjustedSOG": 1.385470287430828, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.4137451912559469, "adjustedSOG": 1.385470287430828, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.11946161107921091, "goalHistoryGoals": 20.0, "goalHistoryShots": 175.0, "goalExpected": 0.16888827820292257, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.16888827820292257, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.1553967412909565, "goalProbability": 0.1553967412909565, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12851943046783, "modelSOG": 1.385470287430828, "historyGames": 147, "seasonGames": { "2024": 68, "2025": 70, "2026": 9 }, "historyGoals": 20.0, "historyShots": 175.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.11428571428571428, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.11946161107921091, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 53.475850732545126, "btb": { "id": "8480995", "name": "Pontus Holmberg", "score": 53.475850732545126, "components": { "Goal model": 56.97674418604651, "SOG model": 51.627906976744185, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 89.06976744186046, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 37.28086534875047, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Likely", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": 5, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 162 } }, { "id": "8478854", "name": "Ryan Shea", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "TOR", "position": "D", "currentGP": 9, "currentSOG": 0.6666666666666666, "priorSOG": 0.9, "currentTOI": 22.857407407407408, "currentFiveTOI": 18.78148148148148, "ppShare": 0.2672720094749309, "rate": 1.0485102086542133, "fifty": 0.9165905009074806, "inputs": { "Player": "Ryan Shea", "Player_ID": "8478854", "Team": "EDM", "Opponent": "TOR", "Position": "D", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 0.9799592277948466, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 0.8019702296509102, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 9, "Prior_GP": 80, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 1.7747978702425558, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.2440903748204257, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 17.932662037037037, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 18.78148148148148, "Current_PP_Share": 0.2672720094749309, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.03542278020781427, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 677.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2533.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 5, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.365824915824916, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 1.060916096408288, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 1.4341348077431773, "Other_State_SOG": 0.04486111111111112, "Environment_Proxy": 1.1073475417853031, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 0.9, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:40.057567+00:00", "priorGP": 80, "currentTotalSOG": 6.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.2537037037037038, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.67 SOG/game in 9 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 9 games. 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MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020575", "date": "20251223", "team": "PIT", "opponent": "TOR", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 17.45 }, { "gameId": "2025020396", "date": "20251129", "team": "PIT", "opponent": "TOR", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 20.316666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020199", "date": "20251103", "team": "PIT", "opponent": "TOR", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 19.683333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020961", "date": "20250302", "team": "PIT", "opponent": "TOR", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 23.8 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Reviewed October22 projected lineup and coach reports", "ppAssignmentSourceDate": "2026-10-13T18:05:51.141Z", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 119, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. 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Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476932", "goalieName": "Anthony Stolarz", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8478854", "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 3, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020199", "date": "20251103", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 3 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476932", "goalieName": "Anthony Stolarz", "opponent": "EDM", "games": 5, "availableGames": 5, "shotsAgainst": 140.0, "goalsAgainst": 14.0, "savePct": 0.9, "gaa": 3.2642487046632125, "gsax": -1.5539999999999994, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020891", "date": "20260203", "goalieTeam": "TOR", "opponent": "EDM", "shotsAgainst": 36.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.709 }, { "gameId": "2024020274", "date": "20241116", "goalieTeam": "TOR", "opponent": "EDM", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3640.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.584 }, { "gameId": "2022020660", "date": "20230111", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "EDM", "shotsAgainst": 16.0, "goalsAgainst": 0.0, "seconds": 1200.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.249 }, { "gameId": "2021020049", "date": "20211019", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "EDM", "shotsAgainst": 36.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3461.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.959 }, { "gameId": "2018020494", "date": "20181214", "goalieTeam": "PHI", "opponent": "EDM", "shotsAgainst": 22.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3539.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.945 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.728567662731364, "adjustedSOG": 0.728567662731364, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.728567662731364, "adjustedSOG": 0.728567662731364, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.07492077451031427, "goalHistoryGoals": 9.0, "goalHistoryShots": 97.0, "goalExpected": 0.05458485357500322, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.05458485357500322, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.053121840548015914, "goalProbability": 0.053121840548015914, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.057593925785319106, "modelSOG": 0.728567662731364, "historyGames": 128, "seasonGames": { "2024": 39, "2025": 80, "2026": 9 }, "historyGoals": 9.0, "historyShots": 97.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.09278350515463918, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.07492077451031427, "goalieFactor": 0.9986972168772468, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 40.01174162957332, "btb": { "id": "8478854", "name": "Ryan Shea", "score": 40.01174162957332, "components": { "Goal model": 16.976744186046513, "SOG model": 13.953488372093023, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 17.674418604651162, "Goalie": 60.73529411764706, "Team H2H": 54.40134278254383, "Goalie H2H": 49.17545684147972 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": 3, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 348 } }, { "id": "8478502", "name": "Dennis Gilbert", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "WSH", "position": "D", "currentGP": 3, "currentSOG": 0.3333333333333333, "priorSOG": 0.25, "currentTOI": 10.272222222222222, "currentFiveTOI": 9.766666666666667, "ppShare": 0.0, "rate": 0.24692246079393745, "fifty": 0.2815143333668358, "inputs": { "Player": "Dennis Gilbert", "Player_ID": "8478502", "Team": "BUF", "Opponent": "WSH", "Position": "D", "Current_GP": 3, "Prior_GP": 8, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.04778156996587, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 1.2076484401207648, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 10.562916666666666, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 9.766666666666667, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.0012649844088100507, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1012.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 3, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Measured game-matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Historical skater-team PP minute approximation, existing hybrid method", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.493148148148148, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.002084624028807363, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.0, "Other_State_SOG": 0.0, "Environment_Proxy": 1.0834850655013406, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 0.25, "Status": "Historical input object restored from saved prior summaries", "Availability_Note": "Conditional on dressing", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 0.2597788643621872, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 0.2964943251705244 }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/buffalo-sabres/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:40.076527+00:00", "priorGP": 8, "currentTotalSOG": 1.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.0, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.33 SOG/game in 3 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 3 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.185, "currentIXG": 0.06166666666666667, "priorTOI": 12.6875, "priorPPTOI": 0.00625, "deploymentChange": -2.415277777777778, "ppTOIChange": -0.00625, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021079", "date": "20260318", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 9.55 }, { "gameId": "2024020480", "date": "20241214", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 11.616666666666667 } ], "h2hGames": 2, "h2hAvailableGames": 2, "h2hSOG": 0.5, "opponentDefense": { "team": "WSH", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 263.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 29.22222222222222, "mostAllowedRank": 7, "fiveSogAllowed60": 28.540383918869974, "pkSogAllowed60": 52.820345614607106, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.111111111111114, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "L": 48.0, "D": 68.0, "C": 72.0, "R": 75.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 8.0, "L": 5.333333333333333, "R": 8.333333333333334, "D": 7.555555555555555 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 29.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27.5, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 29.22222222222222, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.555555555555555, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8479292", "team": "WSH", "name": "Charlie Lindgren", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 2, "savePct": 0.896551724137931, "gaa": 3.061224489795918, "gsax": 0.2989999999999995, "goalsAllowed": 6.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 6.2989999999999995, "shotsAgainst": 58.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.99868053226692, "factor": 0.99868053226692, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T14:45:41.433Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.060415759039961985, "goalHistoryGoals": 1.0, "goalHistoryShots": 12.0, "goalExpected": 0.020001965331955394, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.019975573384101695, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.01980325310712696, "goalProbability": 0.019777383464322968, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.002586964280399187, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": null, "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 3, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 0.33107198601485915, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.04778156996587, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 9.766666666666667, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.493148148148148, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.0, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.053751909733539, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0558974457897532, "Position_Factor": 0.9950902926097296, "Input_GP": 3, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1012.0, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0134856714740588, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.34640522875817, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0134856714740588, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0558974457897532, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 2.04778156996587, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 0.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 1.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021079", "date": "20260318", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 9.55 }, { "gameId": "2024020480", "date": "20241214", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 11.616666666666667 } ], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff latest reported chart; October 21 final lineup pending", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. 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Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479292", "goalieName": "Charlie Lindgren", "opponent": "BUF", "games": 5, "availableGames": 8, "shotsAgainst": 128.0, "goalsAgainst": 16.0, "savePct": 0.875, "gaa": 3.275891486094523, "gsax": -2.283, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021028", "date": "20260312", "goalieTeam": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.161 }, { "gameId": "2025020186", "date": "20251101", "goalieTeam": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3892.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.677 }, { "gameId": "2024020637", "date": "20250106", "goalieTeam": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "shotsAgainst": 27.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3900.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.647 }, { "gameId": "2023021255", "date": "20240411", "goalieTeam": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "shotsAgainst": 16.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3458.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.149 }, { "gameId": "2023021189", "date": "20240402", "goalieTeam": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "shotsAgainst": 31.0, "goalsAgainst": 6.0, "seconds": 2733.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.083 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.33107198601485915, "adjustedSOG": 0.33107198601485915, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.33782855715801957, "adjustedSOG": 0.33107198601485915, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.060415759039961985, "goalHistoryGoals": 1.0, "goalHistoryShots": 12.0, "goalExpected": 0.020410168706076936, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.02038323814704255, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.020203291072533103, "goalProbability": 0.020176904244117208, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.002638682841589468 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05766565012475742, "modelSOG": 0.33107198601485915, "historyGames": 40, "seasonGames": { "2024": 29, "2025": 8, "2026": 3 }, "historyGoals": 1.0, "historyShots": 12.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.08333333333333333, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.060415759039961985, "goalieFactor": 0.99868053226692, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8475690", "name": "Chris Tanev", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "EDM", "position": "D", "currentGP": 6, "currentSOG": 0.16666666666666666, "priorSOG": 0.7272727272727273, "currentTOI": 16.841666666666665, "currentFiveTOI": 13.075000000000001, "ppShare": 0.009549071618037135, "rate": 0.6154479496224065, "fifty": 0.4396636871297958, "inputs": { "Player": "Chris Tanev", "Player_ID": "8475690", "Team": "TOR", "Opponent": "EDM", "Position": "D", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 0.5520330815409228, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 0.39826359306047754, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 6, "Prior_GP": 11, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 0.7648183556405354, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 2.908503332660069, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 13.65340909090909, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 13.075000000000001, "Current_PP_Share": 0.009549071618037135, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.004886410812077777, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 18.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1885.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 6, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.3053872053872055, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.03509008271451183, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.04111245076762318, "Other_State_SOG": 0.0, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9716922687020597, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 0.7272727272727273, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/toronto-maple-leafs/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:40.096041+00:00", "priorGP": 11, "currentTotalSOG": 1.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.049999999999999996, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.17 SOG/game in 6 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 6 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.020999999999999998, "currentIXG": 0.0034999999999999996, "priorTOI": 17.972727272727273, "priorPPTOI": 0.018181818181818184, "deploymentChange": -1.1310606060606077, "ppTOIChange": 0.031818181818181815, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2024020833", "date": "20250201", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 26.616666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020274", "date": "20241116", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 19.233333333333334 } ], "h2hGames": 2, "h2hAvailableGames": 2, "h2hSOG": 0.5, "opponentDefense": { "team": "EDM", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 239.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 26.555555555555557, "mostAllowedRank": 18, "fiveSogAllowed60": 25.09786377362711, "pkSogAllowed60": 57.79388917659244, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 40.111111111111114, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 74.0, "C": 64.0, "L": 57.0, "R": 44.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.111111111111111, "L": 6.333333333333333, "R": 4.888888888888889, "D": 8.222222222222221 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 28.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 24.5, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 26.555555555555557, "oppPosSogAllowed": 8.222222222222221, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8477465", "team": "EDM", "name": "Tristan Jarry", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 3, "savePct": 0.8732394366197183, "gaa": 2.974387221151198, "gsax": -2.739, "goalsAllowed": 9.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 6.261, "shotsAgainst": 71.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0280169850571896, "factor": 1.0280169850571896, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-23T18:50:20.460Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.05767943468884031, "goalHistoryGoals": 3.0, "goalHistoryShots": 52.0, "goalExpected": 0.009952988522668281, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.010231841253382258, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.009903621451454058, "goalProbability": 0.010179674039484547, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.027605258803048947, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 6, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 0.17255697071861148, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 0.7648183556405354, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 13.075000000000001, "Current_PP_Share": 0.009549071618037135, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.3053872053872055, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.04111245076762318, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9913228889134689, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0841268017286898, "Position_Factor": 1.0175103897192914, "Input_GP": 6, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 18.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1885.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 2.908503332660069, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 15.003030303030302, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.004886410812077777, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0564712492976214, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.34640522875817, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0564712492976214, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0841268017286898, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 0.7648183556405354, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. 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Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.05767943468884031, "goalHistoryGoals": 3.0, "goalHistoryShots": 52.0, "goalExpected": 0.010156110737416613, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.010440654340185977, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.01010471159704988, "goalProbability": 0.010386339899110447, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.028162830206056658 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05767274072703728, "modelSOG": 0.17255697071861148, "historyGames": 92, "seasonGames": { "2024": 75, "2025": 11, "2026": 6 }, "historyGoals": 3.0, "historyShots": 52.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.057692307692307696, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.05767943468884031, "goalieFactor": 1.0280169850571896, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8485402", "name": "Michael Misa", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "BOS", "position": "C", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 1.0, "priorSOG": 1.288888888888889, "currentTOI": 13.48, "currentFiveTOI": 11.701666666666666, "ppShare": 0.25484168459883183, "rate": 1.2980212131190738, "fifty": 1.1306443132802169, "inputs": { "Player": "Michael Misa", "Player_ID": "8485402", "Team": "SJS", "Opponent": "BOS", "Position": "C", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.2702474939536217, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 0.9729257775752901, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 10, "Prior_GP": 45, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.1019797749608315, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.711880322507528, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 9.198339188757586, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 11.62261111111111, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 11.701666666666666, "Current_PP_Share": 0.25484168459883183, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.23076086497349882, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 829.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3253.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 5, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.0425, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 1.248610934701387, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 1.2850391945896096, "Other_State_SOG": 0.020000000000000004, "Environment_Proxy": 1.0253180054689388, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.288888888888889, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:40.115572+00:00", "priorGP": 45, "currentTotalSOG": 10.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.3816666666666666, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.00 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.7690000000000001, "currentIXG": 0.1769, "priorTOI": 12.81074074074074, "priorPPTOI": 1.1596296296296296, "deploymentChange": 0.6692592592592597, "ppTOIChange": 0.22203703703703703, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2026020105", "date": "20261013", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 12.5 }, { "gameId": "2025021027", "date": "20260312", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 11.266666666666667 } ], "h2hGames": 2, "h2hAvailableGames": 2, "h2hSOG": 1.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "BOS", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 280.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 28.0, "mostAllowedRank": 11, "fiveSogAllowed60": 26.539776154413243, "pkSogAllowed60": 48.89206576125804, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 42.4, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 68.0, "R": 50.0, "L": 68.0, "C": 94.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.4, "L": 6.8, "R": 5.0, "D": 6.8 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 26.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 25.0, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 28.0, "oppPosSogAllowed": 9.4, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8480280", "team": "BOS", "name": "Jeremy Swayman", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 8, "savePct": 0.9279279279279279, "gaa": 1.976189659313137, "gsax": 7.695, "goalsAllowed": 16.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 23.695, "shotsAgainst": 222.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9412127550171275, "factor": 0.9412127550171275, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T14:59:19.712Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.13600356764065888, "goalHistoryGoals": 10.0, "goalHistoryShots": 68.0, "goalExpected": 0.13306935659851896, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.1252465757324486, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.1245956250665469, "goalProbability": 0.11772067291002217, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.6874952156524727, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 0.9784254847645428, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.1019797749608315, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 11.701666666666666, "Current_PP_Share": 0.25484168459883183, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.0425, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.2850391945896096, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.2, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0194233133624404, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.013580746919003, "Position_Factor": 0.9960977690937871, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 829.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3253.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.711880322507528, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 9.198339188757586, "Prior_5v5_Min": 11.438148148148148, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.23076086497349882, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9979916897506925, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.437908496732026, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9979916897506925, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.013580746919003, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 4.1019797749608315, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 1.0 }, { "season": "2026", "label": "2026–27", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 1.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2026020105", "date": "20261013", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 12.5 }, { "gameId": "2025021027", "date": "20260312", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 11.266666666666667 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Reviewed October22 projected lineup and coach reports", "ppAssignmentSourceDate": "2026-10-13T18:05:17.352Z", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 68, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 12, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480280", "goalieName": "Jeremy Swayman", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8485402", "goals": 1, "sog": 2, "shootingPct": 0.5, "gamesWithAttempts": 2, "recordedAttempts": 2, "log": [ { "gameId": "2026020105", "date": "20261013", "season": 2026, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2025021027", "date": "20260312", "season": 2025, "goals": 1, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480280", "goalieName": "Jeremy Swayman", "opponent": "SJS", "games": 5, "availableGames": 6, "shotsAgainst": 123.0, "goalsAgainst": 9.0, "savePct": 0.926829268292683, "gaa": 2.2632020117351215, "gsax": 2.58, "log": [ { "gameId": "2026020105", "date": "20261013", "goalieTeam": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "shotsAgainst": 38.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.146 }, { "gameId": "2025021027", "date": "20260312", "goalieTeam": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "shotsAgainst": 28.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3406.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.91 }, { "gameId": "2025020351", "date": "20251123", "goalieTeam": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3588.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.577 }, { "gameId": "2023020340", "date": "20231130", "goalieTeam": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "shotsAgainst": 26.0, "goalsAgainst": 0.0, "seconds": 3574.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.886 }, { "gameId": "2022020748", "date": "20230122", "goalieTeam": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "shotsAgainst": 1.0, "goalsAgainst": 0.0, "seconds": 148.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 0.061 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.9784254847645428, "adjustedSOG": 0.9784254847645428, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.9983933518005539, "adjustedSOG": 0.9784254847645428, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.13600356764065888, "goalHistoryGoals": 10.0, "goalHistoryShots": 68.0, "goalExpected": 0.13578505775359076, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.12780262829841693, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.12696973659090843, "goalProbability": 0.11997294555804011, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.6996791032868321 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12848599363630692, "modelSOG": 0.9784254847645428, "historyGames": 55, "seasonGames": { "2025": 45, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 10.0, "historyShots": 68.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.14705882352941177, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.13600356764065888, "goalieFactor": 0.9412127550171275, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 48.43104577361653, "btb": { "id": "8485402", "name": "Michael Misa", "score": 48.43104577361653, "components": { "Goal model": 46.97674418604651, "SOG model": 26.511627906976745, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 57.674418604651166, "Goalie": 34.26470588235294, "Team H2H": 55.896431679721495, "Goalie H2H": 51.317383403997574 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 2, "goalieH2HShots": 2, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 223 } }, { "id": "8482806", "name": "William Trudeau", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "PIT", "position": "D", "currentGP": 3, "currentSOG": 0.6666666666666666, "priorSOG": null, "currentTOI": 9.177777777777779, "currentFiveTOI": 9.177777777777779, "ppShare": 0.0, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/nashville-predators/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:40.119178+00:00", "priorGP": null, "currentTotalSOG": 2.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.0, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.67 SOG/game in 3 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 3 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.056, "currentIXG": 0.018666666666666668, "priorTOI": null, "priorPPTOI": null, "deploymentChange": null, "ppTOIChange": null, "h2hLog": [], "h2hGames": 0, "h2hAvailableGames": 0, "h2hSOG": null, "opponentDefense": { "team": "PIT", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 279.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.9, "mostAllowedRank": 12, "fiveSogAllowed60": 26.122338261223383, "pkSogAllowed60": 50.11600928074246, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 42.4, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 55.0, "L": 47.0, "D": 70.0, "C": 107.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.7, "L": 4.7, "R": 5.5, "D": 7.0 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 25.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 3, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 28.333333333333332, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.9, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.0, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8481668", "team": "PIT", "name": "Arturs Silovs", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 6, "savePct": 0.8662420382165605, "gaa": 3.5131744040150563, "gsax": -1.0760000000000005, "goalsAllowed": 21.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 19.924, "shotsAgainst": 157.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0136052553954562, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Likely starter per Daily Faceoff; no Model Goal adjustment until confirmed.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T15:01:09.604Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.0565445377116061, "goalHistoryGoals": 0.0, "goalHistoryShots": 2.0, "goalExpected": 0.03607145761311859, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.03607145761311859, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.03542863494700742, "goalProbability": 0.03542863494700742, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 3, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 0.6379300118623963, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.358353510895884, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 9.177777777777779, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.906041666666667, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.0, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.011083778612368, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0249142728068137, "Position_Factor": 0.9912682240844909, "Input_GP": 3, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 821.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": null, "Prior_PP_SOG60": null, "Prior_5v5_Min": null, "Prior_PP_Share": null, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9764234875444839, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.34640522875817, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9764234875444839, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0249142728068137, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 4.358353510895884, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 1, "playerPriorWeight": 0, "currentSeasonOnly": true }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 1, "playerPriorWeight": 0, "currentSeasonOnly": true }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481668", "goalieName": "Arturs Silovs", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8482806", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481668", "goalieName": "Arturs Silovs", "opponent": "NSH", "games": 2, "availableGames": 2, "shotsAgainst": 62.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "savePct": 0.9193548387096774, "gaa": 2.397123451857771, "gsax": 1.6559999999999997, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020281", "date": "20251114", "goalieTeam": "PIT", "opponent": "NSH", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3644.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.231 }, { "gameId": "2022021010", "date": "20230306", "goalieTeam": "VAN", "opponent": "NSH", "shotsAgainst": 32.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3865.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.425 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.6379300118623963, "adjustedSOG": 0.6379300118623963, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.6509489916963227, "adjustedSOG": 0.6379300118623963, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.0565445377116061, "goalHistoryGoals": 0.0, "goalHistoryShots": 2.0, "goalExpected": 0.036807609809304684, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.036807609809304684, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.03613844497960718, "goalProbability": 0.03613844497960718, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05767542846583822, "modelSOG": 0.6379300118623963, "historyGames": 3, "seasonGames": { "2026": 3 }, "historyGoals": 0.0, "historyShots": 2.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.0, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.0565445377116061, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8478450", "name": "Parker Wotherspoon", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "CBJ", "position": "D", "currentGP": 6, "currentSOG": 0.8333333333333334, "priorSOG": 0.875, "currentTOI": 18.26111111111111, "currentFiveTOI": 16.116666666666667, "ppShare": 0.022423664122137404, "rate": 0.8705089510885377, "fifty": 0.9015588328122266, "inputs": { "Player": "Parker Wotherspoon", "Player_ID": "8478450", "Team": "VGK", "Opponent": "CBJ", "Position": "D", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 0.9517401037895376, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 0.9864389952917891, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 6, "Prior_GP": 80, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.1023784901758016, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 2.550126065554088, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 13.138686131386862, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 16.487291666666664, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 16.116666666666667, "Current_PP_Share": 0.022423664122137404, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.01295840023623646, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 47.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2096.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 6, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.392708333333333, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.10561125814490893, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.12092428037531806, "Other_State_SOG": 0.1125, "Environment_Proxy": 1.0241190783267258, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 0.875, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/vegas-golden-knights/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:40.137077+00:00", "priorGP": 80, "currentTotalSOG": 5.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.13055555555555556, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.83 SOG/game in 6 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 6 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.244, "currentIXG": 0.04066666666666666, "priorTOI": 20.171666666666667, "priorPPTOI": 0.05708333333333333, "deploymentChange": -1.9105555555555576, "ppTOIChange": 0.07347222222222223, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020760", "date": "20260117", "team": "PIT", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 16.766666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020658", "date": "20260104", "team": "PIT", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 18.716666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2025020388", "date": "20251128", "team": "PIT", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 23.233333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020134", "date": "20251025", "team": "PIT", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 18.7 }, { "gameId": "2024020570", "date": "20241228", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 21.066666666666666 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 5, "h2hSOG": 0.4, "opponentDefense": { "team": "CBJ", "games": 8, "sogAllowedTotal": 222.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.75, "mostAllowedRank": 13, "fiveSogAllowed60": 26.021128266541208, "pkSogAllowed60": 45.718967636214664, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 43.125, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 66.0, "D": 61.0, "R": 49.0, "L": 46.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 8.25, "L": 5.75, "R": 6.125, "D": 7.625 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 28.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.666666666666668, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.75, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.625, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8475660", "team": "CBJ", "name": "Cam Talbot", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 4, "savePct": 0.8674698795180723, "gaa": 3.3959351685104195, "gsax": -0.8840000000000003, "goalsAllowed": 11.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 10.116, "shotsAgainst": 83.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0106708091071457, "factor": 1.0106708091071457, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T15:32:32.146Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.044629714175365855, "goalHistoryGoals": 4.0, "goalHistoryShots": 119.0, "goalExpected": 0.03706190554300143, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.03745738606219786, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.03638351969887473, "goalProbability": 0.03676453589760235, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.03810161987276156, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 6, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 0.8304311651509162, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.1023784901758016, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 16.116666666666667, "Current_PP_Share": 0.022423664122137404, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.392708333333333, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.12092428037531806, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0080456056426796, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9827600403123256, "Position_Factor": 1.0020745834802773, "Input_GP": 6, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 47.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2096.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 2.550126065554088, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 13.138686131386862, "Prior_5v5_Min": 17.352083333333333, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.01295840023623646, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0168544879398973, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.34640522875817, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0168544879398973, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9827600403123256, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 3.1023784901758016, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 0.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 4, "sogPerGame": 0.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020760", "date": "20260117", "team": "PIT", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 16.766666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020658", "date": "20260104", "team": "PIT", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 18.716666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2025020388", "date": "20251128", "team": "PIT", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 23.233333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020134", "date": "20251025", "team": "PIT", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 18.7 }, { "gameId": "2024020570", "date": "20241228", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 21.066666666666666 } ], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 87, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475660", "goalieName": "Cam Talbot", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8478450", "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 2, "recordedAttempts": 4, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021183", "date": "20260331", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2 }, { "gameId": "2025020635", "date": "20260101", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475660", "goalieName": "Cam Talbot", "opponent": "VGK", "games": 5, "availableGames": 22, "shotsAgainst": 160.0, "goalsAgainst": 16.0, "savePct": 0.9, "gaa": 3.176704169424222, "gsax": 0.6329999999999996, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020970", "date": "20260304", "goalieTeam": "DET", "opponent": "VGK", "shotsAgainst": 25.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3728.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.397 }, { "gameId": "2024021115", "date": "20250322", "goalieTeam": "DET", "opponent": "VGK", "shotsAgainst": 35.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3491.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.784 }, { "gameId": "2023020544", "date": "20231228", "goalieTeam": "LAK", "opponent": "VGK", "shotsAgainst": 32.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3478.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.46 }, { "gameId": "2023020192", "date": "20231108", "goalieTeam": "LAK", "opponent": "VGK", "shotsAgainst": 38.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.55 }, { "gameId": "2023020125", "date": "20231028", "goalieTeam": "LAK", "opponent": "VGK", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3835.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.442 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.8304311651509162, "adjustedSOG": 0.8304311651509162, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.8473787399499145, "adjustedSOG": 0.8304311651509162, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.044629714175365855, "goalHistoryGoals": 4.0, "goalHistoryShots": 119.0, "goalExpected": 0.03781827096224636, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.0382218225124468, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.03711209031444555, "goalProbability": 0.03750058682861081, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.03884965141652541 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05773907404405123, "modelSOG": 0.8304311651509162, "historyGames": 141, "seasonGames": { "2024": 55, "2025": 80, "2026": 6 }, "historyGoals": 4.0, "historyShots": 119.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.03361344537815126, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.044629714175365855, "goalieFactor": 1.0106708091071457, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8479980", "name": "Nicolas Hague", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "PIT", "position": "D", "currentGP": 8, "currentSOG": 0.875, "priorSOG": 0.9032258064516129, "currentTOI": 17.7375, "currentFiveTOI": 16.658333333333335, "ppShare": 0.006436955698599016, "rate": 0.9097460949845457, "fifty": 0.8803448139300197, "inputs": { "Player": "Nicolas Hague", "Player_ID": "8479980", "Team": "NSH", "Opponent": "PIT", "Position": "D", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 0.7701293328593292, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 0.576551553777749, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 8, "Prior_GP": 62, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.701350675337669, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 2.9624940655166956, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 16.756801075268818, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 16.658333333333335, "Current_PP_Share": 0.006436955698599016, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.0168428183313773, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 17.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2641.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 5, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.906041666666667, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.0468954515600202, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.03157997286381421, "Other_State_SOG": 0.07056451612903226, "Environment_Proxy": 1.0227478110844896, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 0.9032258064516129, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/nashville-predators/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:40.155415+00:00", "priorGP": 62, "currentTotalSOG": 7.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.035416666666666666, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.88 SOG/game in 8 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 8 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.259, "currentIXG": 0.032375, "priorTOI": 19.63010752688172, "priorPPTOI": 0.06801075268817204, "deploymentChange": -1.8926075268817186, "ppTOIChange": -0.032594086021505375, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020296", "date": "20251116", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "PIT", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 18.783333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2025020281", "date": "20251114", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "PIT", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 21.3 }, { "gameId": "2024021028", "date": "20250311", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "PIT", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 21.933333333333334 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 1.3333333333333333, "opponentDefense": { "team": "PIT", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 279.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.9, "mostAllowedRank": 12, "fiveSogAllowed60": 26.122338261223383, "pkSogAllowed60": 50.11600928074246, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 42.4, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 55.0, "L": 47.0, "D": 70.0, "C": 107.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.7, "L": 4.7, "R": 5.5, "D": 7.0 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 25.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 3, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 28.333333333333332, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.9, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.0, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8481668", "team": "PIT", "name": "Arturs Silovs", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 6, "savePct": 0.8662420382165605, "gaa": 3.5131744040150563, "gsax": -1.0760000000000005, "goalsAllowed": 21.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 19.924, "shotsAgainst": 157.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0136052553954562, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Likely starter per Daily Faceoff; no Model Goal adjustment until confirmed.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T15:01:09.604Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.058088807718452116, "goalHistoryGoals": 8.0, "goalHistoryShots": 137.0, "goalExpected": 0.04880454696702807, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.04880454696702807, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.04763274542301346, "goalProbability": 0.04763274542301346, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 8, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 0.8401712633451958, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.701350675337669, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 16.658333333333335, "Current_PP_Share": 0.006436955698599016, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.906041666666667, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.03157997286381421, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.125, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.011083778612368, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0249142728068137, "Position_Factor": 0.9912682240844909, "Input_GP": 8, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 17.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2641.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 2.9624940655166956, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 16.986559139784948, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.0168428183313773, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9764234875444839, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.34640522875817, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9764234875444839, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0249142728068137, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 2.701350675337669, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020296", "date": "20251116", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "PIT", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 18.783333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2025020281", "date": "20251114", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "PIT", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 21.3 }, { "gameId": "2024021028", "date": "20250311", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "PIT", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 21.933333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024021001", "date": "20250307", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "PIT", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 19.883333333333333 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 86, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481668", "goalieName": "Arturs Silovs", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8479980", "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 2, "recordedAttempts": 2, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020281", "date": "20251114", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2023021238", "date": "20240408", "season": 2023, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481668", "goalieName": "Arturs Silovs", "opponent": "NSH", "games": 2, "availableGames": 2, "shotsAgainst": 62.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "savePct": 0.9193548387096774, "gaa": 2.397123451857771, "gsax": 1.6559999999999997, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020281", "date": "20251114", "goalieTeam": "PIT", "opponent": "NSH", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3644.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.231 }, { "gameId": "2022021010", "date": "20230306", "goalieTeam": "VAN", "opponent": "NSH", "shotsAgainst": 32.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3865.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.425 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.8401712633451958, "adjustedSOG": 0.8401712633451958, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.8573176156583631, "adjustedSOG": 0.8401712633451958, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.058088807718452116, "goalHistoryGoals": 8.0, "goalHistoryShots": 137.0, "goalExpected": 0.04980055812962048, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.04980055812962048, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.04858084160389097, "goalProbability": 0.04858084160389097, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.057670474292731526, "modelSOG": 0.8401712633451958, "historyGames": 138, "seasonGames": { "2024": 68, "2025": 62, "2026": 8 }, "historyGoals": 8.0, "historyShots": 137.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.058394160583941604, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.058088807718452116, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 36.53032537321201, "btb": { "id": "8479980", "name": "Nicolas Hague", "score": 36.53032537321201, "components": { "Goal model": 15.348837209302326, "SOG model": 18.13953488372093, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 9.767441860465116, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 43.8455800074599, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Likely", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": 2, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 389 } }, { "id": "8475188", "name": "Brayden McNabb", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "CBJ", "position": "D", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 1.0, "priorSOG": 1.2857142857142858, "currentTOI": 18.503030303030304, "currentFiveTOI": 16.28181818181818, "ppShare": 0.0, "rate": 1.2409969719516523, "fifty": 1.1823029978580528, "inputs": { "Player": "Brayden McNabb", "Player_ID": "8475188", "Team": "VGK", "Opponent": "CBJ", "Position": "D", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.3406794154556942, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.2110140973448085, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 11, "Prior_GP": 63, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.6850921273031827, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.0604185401393105, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 12.76595744680851, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 16.60433621933622, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 16.28181818181818, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.016337625033277202, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3762.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 6, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.392708333333333, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.026431213999148773, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.0, "Other_State_SOG": 0.08571428571428572, "Environment_Proxy": 1.0241190783267258, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.2857142857142858, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/vegas-golden-knights/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:40.173403+00:00", "priorGP": 63, "currentTotalSOG": 11.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.0, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.00 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.582, "currentIXG": 0.052909090909090906, "priorTOI": 20.523280423280422, "priorPPTOI": 0.0746031746031746, "deploymentChange": -2.020250120250118, "ppTOIChange": -0.0746031746031746, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020502", "date": "20251213", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 20.4 }, { "gameId": "2024021045", "date": "20250313", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 19.85 }, { "gameId": "2024020820", "date": "20250130", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 20.4 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 3, "h2hSOG": 0.6666666666666666, "opponentDefense": { "team": "CBJ", "games": 8, "sogAllowedTotal": 222.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.75, "mostAllowedRank": 13, "fiveSogAllowed60": 26.021128266541208, "pkSogAllowed60": 45.718967636214664, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 43.125, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 66.0, "D": 61.0, "R": 49.0, "L": 46.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 8.25, "L": 5.75, "R": 6.125, "D": 7.625 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 28.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.666666666666668, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.75, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.625, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8475660", "team": "CBJ", "name": "Cam Talbot", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 4, "savePct": 0.8674698795180723, "gaa": 3.3959351685104195, "gsax": -0.8840000000000003, "goalsAllowed": 11.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 10.116, "shotsAgainst": 83.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0106708091071457, "factor": 1.0106708091071457, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T15:32:32.146Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.054565275447600696, "goalHistoryGoals": 10.0, "goalHistoryShots": 189.0, "goalExpected": 0.05437524632007806, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.05495547419371364, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.05292334721416992, "goalProbability": 0.05347270809392567, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.054936087975574616, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 0.9965173981810993, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.6850921273031827, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 16.28181818181818, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.392708333333333, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.0, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0080456056426796, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9827600403123256, "Position_Factor": 1.0020745834802773, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3762.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.0604185401393105, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 12.76595744680851, "Prior_5v5_Min": 17.356878306878308, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.016337625033277202, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0168544879398973, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.34640522875817, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0168544879398973, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9827600403123256, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 3.6850921273031827, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 1.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020502", "date": "20251213", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 20.4 }, { "gameId": "2024021045", "date": "20250313", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 19.85 }, { "gameId": "2024020820", "date": "20250130", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 20.4 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 122, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. 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Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475660", "goalieName": "Cam Talbot", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8475188", "goals": 0, "sog": 9, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 7, "recordedAttempts": 11, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020970", "date": "20260304", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2024021115", "date": "20250322", "season": 2024, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2 }, { "gameId": "2023020544", "date": "20231228", "season": 2023, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2 }, { "gameId": "2023020192", "date": "20231108", "season": 2023, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2023020125", "date": "20231028", "season": 2023, "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2022020315", "date": "20221123", "season": 2022, "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 3 }, { "gameId": "2021020435", "date": "20211212", "season": 2021, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475660", "goalieName": "Cam Talbot", "opponent": "VGK", "games": 5, "availableGames": 22, "shotsAgainst": 160.0, "goalsAgainst": 16.0, "savePct": 0.9, "gaa": 3.176704169424222, "gsax": 0.6329999999999996, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020970", "date": "20260304", "goalieTeam": "DET", "opponent": "VGK", "shotsAgainst": 25.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3728.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.397 }, { "gameId": "2024021115", "date": "20250322", "goalieTeam": "DET", "opponent": "VGK", "shotsAgainst": 35.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3491.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.784 }, { "gameId": "2023020544", "date": "20231228", "goalieTeam": "LAK", "opponent": "VGK", "shotsAgainst": 32.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3478.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.46 }, { "gameId": "2023020192", "date": "20231108", "goalieTeam": "LAK", "opponent": "VGK", "shotsAgainst": 38.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.55 }, { "gameId": "2023020125", "date": "20231028", "goalieTeam": "LAK", "opponent": "VGK", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3835.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.442 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.9965173981810993, "adjustedSOG": 0.9965173981810993, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.0168544879398973, "adjustedSOG": 0.9965173981810993, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.054565275447600696, "goalHistoryGoals": 10.0, "goalHistoryShots": 189.0, "goalExpected": 0.055484945224569454, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.05607701448338127, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.053973734223788816, "goalProbability": 0.05453368151363774, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.05599472898489208 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05769364604356601, "modelSOG": 0.9965173981810993, "historyGames": 156, "seasonGames": { "2024": 82, "2025": 63, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 10.0, "historyShots": 189.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.05291005291005291, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.054565275447600696, "goalieFactor": 1.0106708091071457, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 35.25067512609244, "btb": { "id": "8475188", "name": "Brayden McNabb", "score": 35.25067512609244, "components": { "Goal model": 16.74418604651163, "SOG model": 27.674418604651162, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 8.13953488372093, "Goalie": 13.088235294117647, "Team H2H": 60.2128941554529, "Goalie H2H": 43.63405845455759 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 3, "goalieH2HShots": 9, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 407 } }, { "id": "8479345", "name": "Jakob Chychrun", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "position": "D", "currentGP": 9, "currentSOG": 3.0, "priorSOG": 2.7625, "currentTOI": 24.633333333333333, "currentFiveTOI": 18.72222222222222, "ppShare": 0.6257449344457687, "rate": 2.643459503796308, "fifty": 2.681277307766138, "inputs": { "Player": "Jakob Chychrun", "Player_ID": "8479345", "Team": "WSH", "Opponent": "BUF", "Position": "D", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 2.5353628246285687, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 2.676722266898912, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 9, "Prior_GP": 80, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 7.833827893175074, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.737496264650869, "Current_PP_SOG60": 2.2857142857142856, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 13.282172373081464, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 18.752618055555555, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 18.72222222222222, "Current_PP_Share": 0.6257449344457687, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.6452014454652706, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1575.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2517.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 5, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.500555555555556, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 2.8424693737088154, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 2.8161998410806515, "Other_State_SOG": 0.32569444444444445, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9496227273390297, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 2.7625, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:40.192023+00:00", "priorGP": 80, "currentTotalSOG": 27.0, "currentPPTOI": 2.9166666666666665, "volumeNote": "Observed 3.00 SOG/game in 9 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 9 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.576, "currentIXG": 0.1751111111111111, "priorTOI": 23.340833333333332, "priorPPTOI": 2.8233333333333333, "deploymentChange": 1.2925000000000004, "ppTOIChange": 0.09333333333333327, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021213", "date": "20260404", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 19.666666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2025021028", "date": "20260312", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 20.416666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2025020186", "date": "20251101", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "away", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 8.0, "toi": 27.35 }, { "gameId": "2024021171", "date": "20250330", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 2.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 21.15 }, { "gameId": "2024020637", "date": "20250106", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 9.0, "toi": 23.016666666666666 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 6, "h2hSOG": 3.2, "opponentDefense": { "team": "BUF", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 257.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 25.7, "mostAllowedRank": 24, "fiveSogAllowed60": 21.645723550871505, "pkSogAllowed60": 62.21198156682028, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 40.1, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 61.0, "L": 55.0, "D": 65.0, "C": 76.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.6, "L": 5.5, "R": 6.1, "D": 6.5 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 30.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.25, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 25.7, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.5, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8480045", "team": "BUF", "name": "Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 8, "savePct": 0.8629441624365483, "gaa": 3.5349310833909153, "gsax": -3.6580000000000013, "goalsAllowed": 27.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 23.342, "shotsAgainst": 197.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.035448902624297, "factor": 1.035448902624297, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T15:43:35.500Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.10002862522393473, "goalHistoryGoals": 47.0, "goalHistoryShots": 427.0, "goalExpected": 0.28715115102219424, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.2973303442132348, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.249601703205014, "goalProbability": 0.25720140738899355, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.7599704183979539, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 9, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 2.8706897688471384, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 7.833827893175074, "Current_PP_SOG60": 2.2857142857142856, "Current_5v5_Min": 18.72222222222222, "Current_PP_Share": 0.6257449344457687, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.500555555555556, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 2.8161998410806515, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.4444444444444444, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.922717716387106, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.1429256259066152, "Position_Factor": 0.9922053498483736, "Input_GP": 9, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1575.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2517.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.737496264650869, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 13.282172373081464, "Prior_5v5_Min": 18.823541666666667, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.6452014454652706, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9423932384341638, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.34640522875817, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9423932384341638, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.1429256259066152, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 7.226497156239545, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 2.641232575201761, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 4.333333333333333 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 2.6666666666666665 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021213", "date": "20260404", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 19.666666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2025021028", "date": "20260312", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 20.416666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2025020186", "date": "20251101", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "away", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 8.0, "toi": 27.35 }, { "gameId": "2024021171", "date": "20250330", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 2.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 21.15 }, { "gameId": "2024020637", "date": "20250106", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 9.0, "toi": 23.016666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020480", "date": "20241214", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "home", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 22.45 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "NHL.com October 20 game-specific projected lineup", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. 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Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.0322840514893495, "goalHistoryGoals": 1.0, "goalHistoryShots": 110.0, "goalExpected": 0.03114022153025961, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.03114022153025961, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.0306603587418736, "goalProbability": 0.0306603587418736, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.057796508127633955, "modelSOG": 0.9645698136906008, "historyGames": 119, "seasonGames": { "2024": 81, "2025": 34, "2026": 4 }, "historyGoals": 1.0, "historyShots": 110.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.00909090909090909, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.0322840514893495, "goalieFactor": 1.0218332511814823, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 39.85108966507418, "btb": { "id": "8480192", "name": "Johnathan Kovacevic", "score": 39.85108966507418, "components": { "Goal model": 7.674418604651163, "SOG model": 25.813953488372093, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 25.232558139534884, "Goalie": 76.61764705882354, "Team H2H": 48.3430407712392, "Goalie H2H": 45.89031634203619 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 3, "goalieH2HShots": 7, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 351 } }, { "id": "8481557", "name": "Matt Boldy", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "SEA", "position": "R", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 4.4, "priorSOG": 3.3421052631578947, "currentTOI": 21.721666666666668, "currentFiveTOI": 15.855, "ppShare": 0.7602965403624382, "rate": 3.8719274165017774, "fifty": 4.17311509382146, "inputs": { "Player": "Matt Boldy", "Player_ID": "8481557", "Team": "MIN", "Opponent": "SEA", "Position": "L", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 3.753900850906226, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 4.008252465991735, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 10, "Prior_GP": 76, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 10.974456007568591, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 8.960069256573965, "Current_PP_SOG60": 11.700975081256772, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 11.712707182320441, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 15.354223684210526, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 15.855, "Current_PP_Share": 0.7602965403624382, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.6770697111436859, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1846.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2428.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 5, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 3.9491666666666667, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 2.903934768064412, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 3.002537753981329, "Other_State_SOG": 0.54, "Environment_Proxy": 1.1489692159321772, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 3.3421052631578947, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/minnesota-wild/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:40.230835+00:00", "priorGP": 76, "currentTotalSOG": 44.0, "currentPPTOI": 3.0766666666666667, "volumeNote": "Observed 4.40 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 6.434, "currentIXG": 0.6434, "priorTOI": 20.56907894736842, "priorPPTOI": 3.5723684210526314, "deploymentChange": 1.1525877192982463, "ppTOIChange": -0.49570175438596475, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021240", "date": "20260407", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 14.483333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020693", "date": "20260108", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 20.15 }, { "gameId": "2025020465", "date": "20251208", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 8.0, "toi": 22.816666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024021088", "date": "20250319", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 2.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 18.466666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2024020982", "date": "20250304", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 19.816666666666666 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 6, "h2hSOG": 1.4, "opponentDefense": { "team": "SEA", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 311.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 31.1, "mostAllowedRank": 3, "fiveSogAllowed60": 29.01212141229316, "pkSogAllowed60": 57.63738641280831, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 48.5, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 101.0, "R": 65.0, "L": 58.0, "D": 87.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.1, "L": 5.8, "R": 6.5, "D": 8.7 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 31.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 3, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 28.666666666666668, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 31.1, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.5, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8478916", "team": "SEA", "name": "Joey Daccord", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 5, "savePct": 0.881578947368421, "gaa": 3.8855909336211547, "gsax": -2.3970000000000002, "goalsAllowed": 18.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 15.603, "shotsAgainst": 152.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.024854248577667, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Likely starter per Daily Faceoff; no Model Goal adjustment until confirmed.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T20:31:39.541Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.1296254432467153, "goalHistoryGoals": 74.0, "goalHistoryShots": 570.0, "goalExpected": 0.6022055203789938, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.6022055203789938, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.45239744533662707, "goalProbability": 0.45239744533662707, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 4.6457354767367685, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 10.974456007568591, "Current_PP_SOG60": 11.700975081256772, "Current_5v5_Min": 15.855, "Current_PP_Share": 0.7602965403624382, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 3.9491666666666667, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 3.002537753981329, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.9, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0689197555315912, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0920680305430235, "Position_Factor": 1.0071973889972414, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1846.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2428.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 8.960069256573965, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 11.712707182320441, "Prior_5v5_Min": 14.185745614035087, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.6770697111436859, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.1038251366120218, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.382352941176471, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.1038251366120218, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0920680305430235, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 10.974456007568591, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 11.700975081256772, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 3.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 1.3333333333333333 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021240", "date": "20260407", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 14.483333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020693", "date": "20260108", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 20.15 }, { "gameId": "2025020465", "date": "20251208", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 8.0, "toi": 22.816666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024021088", "date": "20250319", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 2.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 18.466666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2024020982", "date": "20250304", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 19.816666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020033", "date": "20241012", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "home", "sog": 6.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 9.0, "toi": 23.633333333333333 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 253, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 88, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478916", "goalieName": "Joey Daccord", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8481557", "goals": 4, "sog": 14, "shootingPct": 0.2857142857142857, "gamesWithAttempts": 6, "recordedAttempts": 22, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021240", "date": "20260407", "season": 2025, "goals": 1, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2024020982", "date": "20250304", "season": 2024, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2024020033", "date": "20241012", "season": 2024, "goals": 1, "sog": 6, "attempts": 8 }, { "gameId": "2023021307", "date": "20240418", "season": 2023, "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 7 }, { "gameId": "2023020913", "date": "20240224", "season": 2023, "goals": 1, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2 }, { "gameId": "2023020426", "date": "20231210", "season": 2023, "goals": 1, "sog": 2, "attempts": 3 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478916", "goalieName": "Joey Daccord", "opponent": "MIN", "games": 5, "availableGames": 6, "shotsAgainst": 123.0, "goalsAgainst": 19.0, "savePct": 0.8455284552845528, "gaa": 4.3387250237868695, "gsax": -6.912000000000001, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021240", "date": "20260407", "goalieTeam": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 28.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3488.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.569 }, { "gameId": "2024020982", "date": "20250304", "goalieTeam": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 20.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3463.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.635 }, { "gameId": "2024020033", "date": "20241012", "goalieTeam": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 38.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3885.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.839 }, { "gameId": "2023021307", "date": "20240418", "goalieTeam": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.121 }, { "gameId": "2023020913", "date": "20240224", "goalieTeam": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 13.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 1329.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.924 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 4.6457354767367685, "adjustedSOG": 4.6457354767367685, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 4.740546404833437, "adjustedSOG": 4.6457354767367685, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.1296254432467153, "goalHistoryGoals": 74.0, "goalHistoryShots": 570.0, "goalExpected": 0.6144954289581569, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.6144954289581569, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.45908624411789145, "goalProbability": 0.45908624411789145, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12849046975299247, "modelSOG": 4.6457354767367685, "historyGames": 168, "seasonGames": { "2024": 82, "2025": 76, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 74.0, "historyShots": 570.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.12982456140350876, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.1296254432467153, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 67.1279183617706, "btb": { "id": "8481557", "name": "Matt Boldy", "score": 67.1279183617706, "components": { "Goal model": 99.06976744186046, "SOG model": 100.0, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 99.53488372093024, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 49.069843342036556, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Likely", "h2hGames": 6, "goalieH2HShots": 14, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 16 } }, { "id": "8475166", "name": "John Tavares", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "EDM", "position": "C", "currentGP": 7, "currentSOG": 2.4285714285714284, "priorSOG": 2.341463414634146, "currentTOI": 16.521428571428572, "currentFiveTOI": 11.985714285714286, "ppShare": 0.6780341023069207, "rate": 2.201203495290733, "fifty": 2.1940175555661465, "inputs": { "Player": "John Tavares", "Player_ID": "8475166", "Team": "TOR", "Opponent": "EDM", "Position": "C", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 2.090410251786482, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 2.1936399282135706, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 7, "Prior_GP": 82, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.721096543504172, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.133051742344245, "Current_PP_SOG60": 18.63905325443787, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 13.30607109153822, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 12.720792682926827, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 11.985714285714286, "Current_PP_Share": 0.6780341023069207, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.6946052832827145, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1352.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1994.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 5, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.3053872053872055, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 2.9406029540538174, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 2.9191993488884163, "Other_State_SOG": 0.2700348432055749, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9716922687020597, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 2.341463414634146, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/toronto-maple-leafs/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:40.250040+00:00", "priorGP": 82, "currentTotalSOG": 17.0, "currentPPTOI": 3.219047619047619, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.43 SOG/game in 7 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 7 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 2.512, "currentIXG": 0.3588571428571429, "priorTOI": 18.177439024390242, "priorPPTOI": 2.584552845528455, "deploymentChange": -1.6560104529616702, "ppTOIChange": 0.634494773519164, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020891", "date": "20260203", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 14.9 }, { "gameId": "2025020499", "date": "20251213", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 16.916666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2024020833", "date": "20250201", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 19.9 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 1.3333333333333333, "opponentDefense": { "team": "EDM", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 239.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 26.555555555555557, "mostAllowedRank": 18, "fiveSogAllowed60": 25.09786377362711, "pkSogAllowed60": 57.79388917659244, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 40.111111111111114, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 74.0, "C": 64.0, "L": 57.0, "R": 44.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.111111111111111, "L": 6.333333333333333, "R": 4.888888888888889, "D": 8.222222222222221 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 28.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 24.5, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 26.555555555555557, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.111111111111111, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8477465", "team": "EDM", "name": "Tristan Jarry", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 3, "savePct": 0.8732394366197183, "gaa": 2.974387221151198, "gsax": -2.739, "goalsAllowed": 9.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 6.261, "shotsAgainst": 71.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0280169850571896, "factor": 1.0280169850571896, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-23T18:50:20.460Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.16470183692410187, "goalHistoryGoals": 71.0, "goalHistoryShots": 409.0, "goalExpected": 0.36772731934085595, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.37802993015194913, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.30769406560852564, "goalProbability": 0.31479000808021834, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.7095942471692707, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 7, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 2.232684991305304, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.721096543504172, "Current_PP_SOG60": 18.63905325443787, "Current_5v5_Min": 11.985714285714286, "Current_PP_Share": 0.6780341023069207, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.3053872053872055, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 2.9191993488884163, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.2857142857142857, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9913228889134689, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0841268017286898, "Position_Factor": 0.9730886823103262, "Input_GP": 7, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1352.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1994.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.133051742344245, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 13.30607109153822, "Prior_5v5_Min": 14.435975609756097, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.6946052832827145, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.8832191281527919, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.437908496732026, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.8832191281527919, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0841268017286898, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.721096543504172, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 18.63905325443787, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020891", "date": "20260203", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 14.9 }, { "gameId": "2025020499", "date": "20251213", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 16.916666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2024020833", "date": "20250201", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 19.9 }, { "gameId": "2024020274", "date": "20241116", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 22.583333333333332 } ], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 194, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 68, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477465", "goalieName": "Tristan Jarry", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8475166", "goals": 0, "sog": 23, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 8, "recordedAttempts": 35, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020499", "date": "20251213", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 3 }, { "gameId": "2025020396", "date": "20251129", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 5 }, { "gameId": "2024020433", "date": "20241207", "season": 2024, "goals": 0, "sog": 4, "attempts": 6 }, { "gameId": "2023020466", "date": "20231216", "season": 2023, "goals": 0, "sog": 4, "attempts": 6 }, { "gameId": "2023020311", "date": "20231125", "season": 2023, "goals": 0, "sog": 4, "attempts": 4 }, { "gameId": "2021020542", "date": "20220217", "season": 2021, "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2021020261", "date": "20211120", "season": 2021, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 5 }, { "gameId": "2021020071", "date": "20211023", "season": 2021, "goals": 0, "sog": 5, "attempts": 5 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477465", "goalieName": "Tristan Jarry", "opponent": "TOR", "games": 5, "availableGames": 13, "shotsAgainst": 102.0, "goalsAgainst": 16.0, "savePct": 0.8431372549019608, "gaa": 4.100811618966254, "gsax": -2.944, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020499", "date": "20251213", "goalieTeam": "EDM", "opponent": "TOR", "shotsAgainst": 28.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.854 }, { "gameId": "2025020396", "date": "20251129", "goalieTeam": "PIT", "opponent": "TOR", "shotsAgainst": 13.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 2107.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.626 }, { "gameId": "2025020199", "date": "20251103", "goalieTeam": "PIT", "opponent": "TOR", "shotsAgainst": 20.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3452.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.296 }, { "gameId": "2024020433", "date": "20241207", "goalieTeam": "PIT", "opponent": "TOR", "shotsAgainst": 27.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3571.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.846 }, { "gameId": "2023020466", "date": "20231216", "goalieTeam": "PIT", "opponent": "TOR", "shotsAgainst": 14.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 1316.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.434 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 2.232684991305304, "adjustedSOG": 2.232684991305304, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 2.2782499911278613, "adjustedSOG": 2.232684991305304, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.16470183692410187, "goalHistoryGoals": 71.0, "goalHistoryShots": 409.0, "goalExpected": 0.37523195851107755, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.3857448266856624, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.31287012531853103, "goalProbability": 0.3200559928886776, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.7185867570146554 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1283323499436786, "modelSOG": 2.232684991305304, "historyGames": 164, "seasonGames": { "2024": 75, "2025": 82, "2026": 7 }, "historyGoals": 71.0, "historyShots": 409.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.17359413202933985, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.16470183692410187, "goalieFactor": 1.0280169850571896, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8481522", "name": "Peyton Krebs", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "WSH", "position": "L", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 0.6, "priorSOG": 1.1341463414634145, "currentTOI": 13.569999999999999, "currentFiveTOI": 13.261666666666667, "ppShare": 0.019158291457286432, "rate": 1.1762784661135526, "fifty": 1.008535823374005, "inputs": { "Player": "Peyton Krebs", "Player_ID": "8481522", "Team": "BUF", "Opponent": "WSH", "Position": "C", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.2130091106472722, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.1850683069632577, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 10, "Prior_GP": 82, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.714590926228478, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.75140523586224, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 9.62566844919786, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 13.21011788617886, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 13.261666666666667, "Current_PP_Share": 0.019158291457286432, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.0158602264535007, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 61.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3184.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 5, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.493148148148148, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.09980430533987009, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.10523933324027544, "Other_State_SOG": 0.07682926829268293, "Environment_Proxy": 1.0834850655013406, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.1341463414634145, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/buffalo-sabres/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:40.270575+00:00", "priorGP": 82, "currentTotalSOG": 6.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.10166666666666666, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.60 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.253, "currentIXG": 0.1253, "priorTOI": 13.76361788617886, "priorPPTOI": 0.07601626016260163, "deploymentChange": -0.19361788617886155, "ppTOIChange": 0.025650406504065026, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021213", "date": "20260404", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 12.083333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025021028", "date": "20260312", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 13.733333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020186", "date": "20251101", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 15.133333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024021171", "date": "20250330", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 12.133333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020637", "date": "20250106", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 14.55 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 6, "h2hSOG": 1.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "WSH", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 263.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 29.22222222222222, "mostAllowedRank": 7, "fiveSogAllowed60": 28.540383918869974, "pkSogAllowed60": 52.820345614607106, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.111111111111114, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "L": 48.0, "D": 68.0, "C": 72.0, "R": 75.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 8.0, "L": 5.333333333333333, "R": 8.333333333333334, "D": 7.555555555555555 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 29.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27.5, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 29.22222222222222, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.333333333333333, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8479292", "team": "WSH", "name": "Charlie Lindgren", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 2, "savePct": 0.896551724137931, "gaa": 3.061224489795918, "gsax": 0.2989999999999995, "goalsAllowed": 6.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 6.2989999999999995, "shotsAgainst": 58.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.99868053226692, "factor": 0.99868053226692, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T14:45:41.433Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.12491260706833263, "goalHistoryGoals": 22.0, "goalHistoryShots": 179.0, "goalExpected": 0.07531284162249287, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.07521346875808542, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.072546705054629, "goalProbability": 0.0724545367846695, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.009216826995950278, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 0.6029242635316503, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.714590926228478, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 13.261666666666667, "Current_PP_Share": 0.019158291457286432, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.493148148148148, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.10523933324027544, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.053751909733539, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0558974457897532, "Position_Factor": 0.9978620161121851, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 61.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3184.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.75140523586224, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 9.62566844919786, "Prior_5v5_Min": 13.089837398373982, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.0158602264535007, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0253814005640312, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.062091503267974, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0253814005640312, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0558974457897532, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 2.908307526592164, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 1.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 1.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021213", "date": "20260404", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 12.083333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025021028", "date": "20260312", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 13.733333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020186", "date": "20251101", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 15.133333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024021171", "date": "20250330", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 12.133333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020637", "date": "20250106", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 14.55 }, { "gameId": "2024020480", "date": "20241214", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 13.5 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff latest reported chart; October 21 final lineup pending", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 134, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479292", "goalieName": "Charlie Lindgren", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8481522", "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 4, "recordedAttempts": 4, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021028", "date": "20260312", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2025020186", "date": "20251101", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2023021189", "date": "20240402", "season": 2023, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2022021076", "date": "20230315", "season": 2022, "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 1 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479292", "goalieName": "Charlie Lindgren", "opponent": "BUF", "games": 5, "availableGames": 8, "shotsAgainst": 128.0, "goalsAgainst": 16.0, "savePct": 0.875, "gaa": 3.275891486094523, "gsax": -2.283, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021028", "date": "20260312", "goalieTeam": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.161 }, { "gameId": "2025020186", "date": "20251101", "goalieTeam": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3892.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.677 }, { "gameId": "2024020637", "date": "20250106", "goalieTeam": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "shotsAgainst": 27.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3900.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.647 }, { "gameId": "2023021255", "date": "20240411", "goalieTeam": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "shotsAgainst": 16.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3458.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.149 }, { "gameId": "2023021189", "date": "20240402", "goalieTeam": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "shotsAgainst": 31.0, "goalsAgainst": 6.0, "seconds": 2733.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.083 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.6029242635316503, "adjustedSOG": 0.6029242635316503, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.6152288403384186, "adjustedSOG": 0.6029242635316503, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.12491260706833263, "goalHistoryGoals": 22.0, "goalHistoryShots": 179.0, "goalExpected": 0.07684983839029884, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.07674843750825043, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.07397110284344072, "goalProbability": 0.07387719793552695, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.009390490791376382 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12850617372064807, "modelSOG": 0.6029242635316503, "historyGames": 173, "seasonGames": { "2024": 81, "2025": 82, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 22.0, "historyShots": 179.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.12290502793296089, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.12491260706833263, "goalieFactor": 0.99868053226692, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 47.87008303545248, "btb": { "id": "8481522", "name": "Peyton Krebs", "score": 47.87008303545248, "components": { "Goal model": 26.046511627906977, "SOG model": 9.767441860465116, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 36.74418604651163, "Goalie": 87.05882352941177, "Team H2H": 65.22519582245431, "Goalie H2H": 50.08328285887341 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 6, "goalieH2HShots": 2, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 233 } }, { "id": "8484509", "name": "Josh Samanski", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "TOR", "position": "C", "currentGP": 6, "currentSOG": 0.0, "priorSOG": 0.4166666666666667, "currentTOI": 7.733333333333333, "currentFiveTOI": 7.322222222222222, "ppShare": 0.07345286292654714, "rate": 0.3482933644825675, "fifty": 0.20528036174551423, "inputs": { "Player": "Josh Samanski", "Player_ID": "8484509", "Team": "EDM", "Opponent": "TOR", "Position": "C", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 0.32860324730413903, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 0.1949828074626478, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 6, "Prior_GP": 24, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 0.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 2.4860161591050343, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 8.142430555555555, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 7.322222222222222, "Current_PP_Share": 0.07345286292654714, "Prior_PP_Share": 0, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 127.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1729.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 4, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.365824915824916, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.2758946414209572, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.3941352020299389, "Other_State_SOG": 0.0, "Environment_Proxy": 1.1073475417853031, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 0.4166666666666667, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:40.288887+00:00", "priorGP": 24, "currentTotalSOG": 0.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.3527777777777778, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.00 SOG/game in 6 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 6 games. 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Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.753, "currentIXG": 0.1506, "priorTOI": 10.283333333333333, "priorPPTOI": 0.016666666666666666, "deploymentChange": -0.05000000000000071, "ppTOIChange": -0.016666666666666666, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2024020602", "date": "20250101", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 6.483333333333333 } ], "h2hGames": 1, "h2hAvailableGames": 1, "h2hSOG": 2.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "NJD", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 234.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 26.0, "mostAllowedRank": 22, "fiveSogAllowed60": 24.374647357532442, "pkSogAllowed60": 52.512155591572125, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 37.111111111111114, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "L": 41.0, "D": 63.0, "C": 78.0, "R": 52.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 8.666666666666666, "L": 4.555555555555555, "R": 5.777777777777778, "D": 7.0 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 25.0, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 25.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 26.0, "oppPosSogAllowed": 4.555555555555555, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8474596", "team": "NJD", "name": "Jake Allen", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 6, "savePct": 0.8834355828220859, "gaa": 3.1496062992125986, "gsax": -3.708, "goalsAllowed": 19.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 15.292, "shotsAgainst": 163.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0365218981504722, "factor": 1.0365218981504722, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T17:31:56.013Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.11602459372410659, "goalHistoryGoals": 2.0, "goalHistoryShots": 28.0, "goalExpected": 0.10939253317495554, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.11338775612999343, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.10362150986352318, "goalProbability": 0.10719559739137816, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.35740875278549716, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 5, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 0.942839183174204, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.911323328785811, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 9.773333333333333, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.575661375661376, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.0, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.2, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9778442581785296, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0469775686735434, "Position_Factor": 0.9932135921568832, "Input_GP": 5, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1392.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.174397031539889, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 10.266666666666666, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.003910497300803083, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9526009989466888, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.062091503267974, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9526009989466888, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0469775686735434, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 4.911323328785811, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 2.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2024020602", "date": "20250101", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 6.483333333333333 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 9, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8474596", "goalieName": "Jake Allen", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8481732", "goals": 1, "sog": 2, "shootingPct": 0.5, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 2, "log": [ { "gameId": "2024020602", "date": "20250101", "season": 2024, "goals": 1, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8474596", "goalieName": "Jake Allen", "opponent": "LAK", "games": 5, "availableGames": 17, "shotsAgainst": 151.0, "goalsAgainst": 16.0, "savePct": 0.8940397350993378, "gaa": 3.2597623089983023, "gsax": 1.5839999999999996, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021050", "date": "20260314", "goalieTeam": "NJD", "opponent": "LAK", "shotsAgainst": 31.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.558 }, { "gameId": "2024020602", "date": "20250101", "goalieTeam": "NJD", "opponent": "LAK", "shotsAgainst": 23.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3431.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.828 }, { "gameId": "2023020309", "date": "20231125", "goalieTeam": "MTL", "opponent": "LAK", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.339 }, { "gameId": "2022020982", "date": "20230302", "goalieTeam": "MTL", "opponent": "LAK", "shotsAgainst": 33.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3509.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.849 }, { "gameId": "2022020439", "date": "20221210", "goalieTeam": "MTL", "opponent": "LAK", "shotsAgainst": 34.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3530.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.01 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.942839183174204, "adjustedSOG": 0.942839183174204, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.962080799157351, "adjustedSOG": 0.942839183174204, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.11602459372410659, "goalHistoryGoals": 2.0, "goalHistoryShots": 28.0, "goalExpected": 0.11162503385199544, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.11162503385199544, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.1056204433092679, "goalProbability": 0.1056204433092679, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12851147996685644, "modelSOG": 0.942839183174204, "historyGames": 31, "seasonGames": { "2024": 19, "2025": 7, "2026": 5 }, "historyGoals": 2.0, "historyShots": 28.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.07142857142857142, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.11602459372410659, "goalieFactor": 1.0365218981504722, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": 48.24070227103339, "btb": { "id": "8481732", "name": "Andre Lee", "score": 48.24070227103339, "components": { "Goal model": 39.53488372093023, "SOG model": 24.41860465116279, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 53.48837209302326, "Goalie": 55.44117647058823, "Team H2H": 53.80963683835746, "Goalie H2H": 51.483949121744395 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 1, "goalieH2HShots": 2, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 225 } }, { "id": "8481538", "name": "Judd Caulfield", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "PHI", "position": "R", "currentGP": 8, "currentSOG": 0.875, "priorSOG": null, "currentTOI": 12.510416666666666, "currentFiveTOI": 10.339583333333334, "ppShare": 0.26394210302256277, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/anaheim-ducks/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:40.349513+00:00", "priorGP": null, "currentTotalSOG": 7.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.2916666666666667, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.88 SOG/game in 8 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 8 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.302, "currentIXG": 0.16275, "priorTOI": null, "priorPPTOI": null, "deploymentChange": null, "ppTOIChange": null, "h2hLog": [], "h2hGames": 0, "h2hAvailableGames": 0, "h2hSOG": null, "opponentDefense": { "team": "PHI", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 383.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 31.916666666666668, "mostAllowedRank": 2, "fiveSogAllowed60": 31.042564889030356, "pkSogAllowed60": 46.879209699146834, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.75, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 113.0, "C": 130.0, "R": 73.0, "L": 67.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.833333333333334, "L": 5.583333333333333, "R": 6.083333333333333, "D": 9.416666666666666 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 27.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.833333333333332, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 31.916666666666668, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.083333333333333, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8479361", "team": "PHI", "name": "Joseph Woll", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 6, "savePct": 0.9166666666666666, "gaa": 2.640143007746253, "gsax": 4.5710000000000015, "goalsAllowed": 16.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 20.571, "shotsAgainst": 192.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9655996195755495, "factor": 0.9655996195755495, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T14:50:13.988Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.1294358390318869, "goalHistoryGoals": 1.0, "goalHistoryShots": 7.0, "goalExpected": 0.11887585500595207, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.1147864803704655, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.11208197550218768, "goalProbability": 0.1084435116039228, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.36384638982648876, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 8, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 0.9184153005464479, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.077574047954866, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 10.339583333333334, "Current_PP_Share": 0.26394210302256277, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.388425925925926, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.422232470870189, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.1165260841882552, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9915761915723407, "Position_Factor": 0.9951535644939745, "Input_GP": 8, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 620.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2349.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": null, "Prior_PP_SOG60": null, "Prior_5v5_Min": null, "Prior_PP_Share": null, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.07103825136612, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.382352941176471, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.07103825136612, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9915761915723407, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.077574047954866, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "ppAssignmentSourceDate": "2026-10-13T16:34:52.608Z", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 1, "playerPriorWeight": 0, "currentSeasonOnly": true }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 1, "playerPriorWeight": 0, "currentSeasonOnly": true }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479361", "goalieName": "Joseph Woll", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8481538", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479361", "goalieName": "Joseph Woll", "opponent": "ANA", "games": 3, "availableGames": 3, "shotsAgainst": 91.0, "goalsAgainst": 7.0, "savePct": 0.9230769230769231, "gaa": 2.6359832635983262, "gsax": 2.575, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021029", "date": "20260312", "goalieTeam": "TOR", "opponent": "ANA", "shotsAgainst": 40.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3567.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.449 }, { "gameId": "2024021176", "date": "20250330", "goalieTeam": "TOR", "opponent": "ANA", "shotsAgainst": 31.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3593.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.338 }, { "gameId": "2024020459", "date": "20241212", "goalieTeam": "TOR", "opponent": "ANA", "shotsAgainst": 20.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 2400.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.788 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.9184153005464479, "adjustedSOG": 0.9184153005464479, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.937158469945355, "adjustedSOG": 0.9184153005464479, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.1294358390318869, "goalHistoryGoals": 1.0, "goalHistoryShots": 7.0, "goalExpected": 0.1213018928632164, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.11712906160251582, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.11423348736389785, "goalProbability": 0.11052961071864684, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.3703876645251014 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.128496347764119, "modelSOG": 0.9184153005464479, "historyGames": 8, "seasonGames": { "2026": 8 }, "historyGoals": 1.0, "historyShots": 7.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.14285714285714285, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.1294358390318869, "goalieFactor": 0.9655996195755495, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8479398", "name": "Samuel Girard", "team": "PIT", "opponent": "NSH", "position": "D", "currentGP": 9, "currentSOG": 1.3333333333333333, "priorSOG": 0.6833333333333333, "currentTOI": 18.73148148148148, "currentFiveTOI": 16.37962962962963, "ppShare": 0.05451388888888889, "rate": 0.7763938159401755, "fifty": 1.0269724774819486, "inputs": { "Player": "Samuel Girard", "Player_ID": "8479398", "Team": "PIT", "Opponent": "NSH", "Position": "D", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 0.853497254469425, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.1814997834116496, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 9, "Prior_GP": 60, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.884115319389486, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 2.315990894394774, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 16.517574074074073, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 16.37962962962963, "Current_PP_Share": 0.05451388888888889, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.015953650899113502, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 157.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2880.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 6, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.130208333333334, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.22032099077904652, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.27966760706018523, "Other_State_SOG": 0.03, "Environment_Proxy": 1.0738773444064478, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 0.6833333333333333, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/pittsburgh-penguins/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:40.367213+00:00", "priorGP": 60, "currentTotalSOG": 12.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.29074074074074074, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.33 SOG/game in 9 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 9 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.259, "currentIXG": 0.13988888888888887, "priorTOI": 18.100277777777777, "priorPPTOI": 0.07027777777777779, "deploymentChange": 0.6312037037037044, "ppTOIChange": 0.22046296296296297, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020752", "date": "20260116", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 20.066666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020506", "date": "20251213", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 16.8 }, { "gameId": "2025020475", "date": "20251209", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 15.766666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020343", "date": "20251122", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 17.633333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020898", "date": "20250222", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 21.6 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 8, "h2hSOG": 0.4, "opponentDefense": { "team": "NSH", "games": 8, "sogAllowedTotal": 233.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 29.125, "mostAllowedRank": 8, "fiveSogAllowed60": 26.902173913043477, "pkSogAllowed60": 37.776914108045084, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 45.125, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 82.0, "L": 44.0, "D": 67.0, "R": 40.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.25, "L": 5.5, "R": 5.0, "D": 8.375 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 27.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 3, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 30.0, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 29.125, "oppPosSogAllowed": 8.375, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8477424", "team": "NSH", "name": "Juuse Saros", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.9061032863849765, "gaa": 2.8192176670973805, "gsax": 1.6679999999999993, "goalsAllowed": 20.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 21.668, "shotsAgainst": 213.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9906396066739361, "factor": 0.9906396066739361, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T15:56:16.281Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.05149530348657434, "goalHistoryGoals": 7.0, "goalHistoryShots": 148.0, "goalExpected": 0.07293301484315072, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.07225033313776318, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.07033689843118954, "goalProbability": 0.0697020177535202, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.06348806776693416, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 9, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.4163042045604322, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.884115319389486, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 16.37962962962963, "Current_PP_Share": 0.05451388888888889, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.130208333333334, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.27966760706018523, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0235094259979116, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9053307495740243, "Position_Factor": 1.007338478796179, "Input_GP": 9, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 157.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2880.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 2.315990894394774, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 16.839444444444446, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.015953650899113502, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0622281534203242, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.34640522875817, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0622281534203242, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9053307495740243, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 4.884115319389486, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 4, "sogPerGame": 1.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 4, "sogPerGame": 0.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020752", "date": "20260116", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 20.066666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020506", "date": "20251213", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 16.8 }, { "gameId": "2025020475", "date": "20251209", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 15.766666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020343", "date": "20251122", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 17.633333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020898", "date": "20250222", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 21.6 }, { "gameId": "2024020484", "date": "20241214", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 22.8 }, { "gameId": "2024020243", "date": "20241111", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 19.0 }, { "gameId": "2024020182", "date": "20241102", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 23.15 } ], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 74, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477424", "goalieName": "Juuse Saros", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8479398", "goals": 2, "sog": 13, "shootingPct": 0.15384615384615385, "gamesWithAttempts": 7, "recordedAttempts": 19, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020475", "date": "20251209", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2 }, { "gameId": "2025020343", "date": "20251122", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2024020484", "date": "20241214", "season": 2024, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2 }, { "gameId": "2024020243", "date": "20241111", "season": 2024, "goals": 1, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2 }, { "gameId": "2024020182", "date": "20241102", "season": 2024, "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 3 }, { "gameId": "2022020539", "date": "20221223", "season": 2022, "goals": 1, "sog": 5, "attempts": 7 }, { "gameId": "2021020460", "date": "20211216", "season": 2021, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477424", "goalieName": "Juuse Saros", "opponent": "PIT", "games": 5, "availableGames": 13, "shotsAgainst": 131.0, "goalsAgainst": 15.0, "savePct": 0.8854961832061069, "gaa": 3.034219250435467, "gsax": -2.5649999999999995, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020296", "date": "20251116", "goalieTeam": "NSH", "opponent": "PIT", "shotsAgainst": 21.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3562.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.064 }, { "gameId": "2025020281", "date": "20251114", "goalieTeam": "NSH", "opponent": "PIT", "shotsAgainst": 17.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3637.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.622 }, { "gameId": "2024020830", "date": "20250201", "goalieTeam": "NSH", "opponent": "PIT", "shotsAgainst": 35.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3527.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.258 }, { "gameId": "2024020515", "date": "20241219", "goalieTeam": "NSH", "opponent": "PIT", "shotsAgainst": 20.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3657.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.863 }, { "gameId": "2023021289", "date": "20240415", "goalieTeam": "NSH", "opponent": "PIT", "shotsAgainst": 38.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3414.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.628 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.4163042045604322, "adjustedSOG": 1.4163042045604322, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.4163042045604322, "adjustedSOG": 1.4163042045604322, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.05149530348657434, "goalHistoryGoals": 7.0, "goalHistoryShots": 148.0, "goalExpected": 0.07293301484315072, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.07225033313776318, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.07033689843118954, "goalProbability": 0.0697020177535202, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.06348806776693416 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05770835264670437, "modelSOG": 1.4163042045604322, "historyGames": 142, "seasonGames": { "2024": 73, "2025": 60, "2026": 9 }, "historyGoals": 7.0, "historyShots": 148.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.0472972972972973, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.05149530348657434, "goalieFactor": 0.9906396066739361, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8482142", "name": "Jamie Drysdale", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "ANA", "position": "D", "currentGP": 12, "currentSOG": 1.3333333333333333, "priorSOG": 1.294871794871795, "currentTOI": 22.344444444444445, "currentFiveTOI": 17.555555555555554, "ppShare": 0.5526162790697674, "rate": 1.303839871369492, "fifty": 1.3448697380624028, "inputs": { "Player": "Jamie Drysdale", "Player_ID": "8482142", "Team": "PHI", "Opponent": "ANA", "Position": "D", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.3986836462596868, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.313689414900956, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 12, "Prior_GP": 78, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.848101265822785, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.1819133347289092, "Current_PP_SOG60": 11.362440820620726, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 6.259055346276441, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 17.800811965811963, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 17.555555555555554, "Current_PP_Share": 0.5526162790697674, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.5195289206917113, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1901.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3440.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 7, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.042592592592593, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 2.736564934903597, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 2.78661875538329, "Other_State_SOG": 0.06923076923076923, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9949214190083264, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.294871794871795, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/philadelphia-flyers/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:40.384812+00:00", "priorGP": 78, "currentTotalSOG": 16.0, "currentPPTOI": 2.640277777777778, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.33 SOG/game in 12 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 12 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.2510000000000001, "currentIXG": 0.10425000000000001, "priorTOI": 21.553846153846155, "priorPPTOI": 2.2121794871794873, "deploymentChange": 0.7905982905982896, "ppTOIChange": 0.42809829059829063, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021082", "date": "20260318", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 21.366666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020670", "date": "20260106", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 5.933333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020675", "date": "20250111", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 18.183333333333334 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 1.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "ANA", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 239.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 26.555555555555557, "mostAllowedRank": 18, "fiveSogAllowed60": 25.834281008587897, "pkSogAllowed60": 38.93928820655967, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 43.333333333333336, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 54.0, "C": 91.0, "R": 57.0, "L": 37.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.11111111111111, "L": 4.111111111111111, "R": 6.333333333333333, "D": 6.0 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 28.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.2, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 26.555555555555557, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.0, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8480843", "team": "ANA", "name": "Lukas Dostal", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.8813559322033898, "gaa": 3.1634446397188047, "gsax": 2.846, "goalsAllowed": 21.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 23.846, "shotsAgainst": 177.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9815060369171769, "factor": 0.9815060369171769, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T16:38:16.530Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.07413058460233522, "goalHistoryGoals": 15.0, "goalHistoryShots": 180.0, "goalExpected": 0.09207875425809571, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.09037585317613414, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.08796667979079714, "goalProbability": 0.08641225412208764, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.15544256687095026, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 12, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.2421155822801253, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.848101265822785, "Current_PP_SOG60": 11.362440820620726, "Current_5v5_Min": 17.555555555555554, "Current_PP_Share": 0.5526162790697674, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.042592592592593, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 2.78661875538329, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0050173142237073, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9117211340641708, "Position_Factor": 0.9807721620568941, "Input_GP": 12, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1901.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3440.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.1819133347289092, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 6.259055346276441, "Prior_5v5_Min": 18.373076923076923, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.5195289206917113, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9131859898857464, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.34640522875817, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9131859898857464, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9117211340641708, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 2.761912880402353, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 12.735849056603774, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021082", "date": "20260318", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 21.366666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020670", "date": "20260106", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 5.933333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020675", "date": "20250111", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 18.183333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020568", "date": "20241228", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 17.05 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff latest reported chart; October 21 final lineup pending", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 119, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 37, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480843", "goalieName": "Lukas Dostal", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8482142", "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 3, "recordedAttempts": 8, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021082", "date": "20260318", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 4 }, { "gameId": "2025020670", "date": "20260106", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2 }, { "gameId": "2024020568", "date": "20241228", "season": 2024, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480843", "goalieName": "Lukas Dostal", "opponent": "PHI", "games": 5, "availableGames": 5, "shotsAgainst": 155.0, "goalsAgainst": 18.0, "savePct": 0.8838709677419355, "gaa": 3.646595385481148, "gsax": -2.507999999999999, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021082", "date": "20260318", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 28.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3704.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.611 }, { "gameId": "2025020670", "date": "20260106", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 38.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3560.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.171 }, { "gameId": "2024020568", "date": "20241228", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3472.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.781 }, { "gameId": "2023020208", "date": "20231110", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 35.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3450.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.281 }, { "gameId": "2023020117", "date": "20231028", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3584.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.648 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.2421155822801253, "adjustedSOG": 1.2421155822801253, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.2421155822801253, "adjustedSOG": 1.2421155822801253, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.07413058460233522, "goalHistoryGoals": 15.0, "goalHistoryShots": 180.0, "goalExpected": 0.09207875425809571, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.09207875425809571, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.08796667979079714, "goalProbability": 0.08796667979079714, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05756563688653864, "modelSOG": 1.2421155822801253, "historyGames": 160, "seasonGames": { "2024": 70, "2025": 78, "2026": 12 }, "historyGoals": 15.0, "historyShots": 180.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.08333333333333333, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.07413058460233522, "goalieFactor": 0.9815060369171769, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 44.16038427929822, "btb": { "id": "8482142", "name": "Jamie Drysdale", "score": 44.16038427929822, "components": { "Goal model": 32.093023255813954, "SOG model": 43.95348837209303, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 23.488372093023255, "Goalie": 44.85294117647059, "Team H2H": 58.61618798955614, "Goalie H2H": 49.17545684147972 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": 3, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 285 } }, { "id": "8484790", "name": "Adam Jiříček", "team": "STL", "opponent": "CAR", "position": "D", "currentGP": 9, "currentSOG": 1.6666666666666667, "priorSOG": null, "currentTOI": 15.281481481481482, "currentFiveTOI": 13.364814814814814, "ppShare": 0.2863636363636364, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/st-louis-blues/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:40.386931+00:00", "priorGP": null, "currentTotalSOG": 15.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.4, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.67 SOG/game in 9 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 9 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.0210000000000001, "currentIXG": 0.11344444444444446, "priorTOI": null, "priorPPTOI": null, "deploymentChange": null, "ppTOIChange": null, "h2hLog": [], "h2hGames": 0, "h2hAvailableGames": 0, "h2hSOG": null, "opponentDefense": { "team": "CAR", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 246.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 22.363636363636363, "mostAllowedRank": 31, "fiveSogAllowed60": 21.75191064079953, "pkSogAllowed60": 32.87187039764359, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 33.09090909090909, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 77.0, "R": 66.0, "D": 59.0, "L": 44.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.0, "L": 4.0, "R": 6.0, "D": 5.363636363636363 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 23.0, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 7, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 22.428571428571427, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 22.363636363636363, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.363636363636363, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8481611", "team": "CAR", "name": "Pyotr Kochetkov", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 6, "savePct": 0.8991596638655462, "gaa": 1.9842910293509715, "gsax": 2.2720000000000002, "goalsAllowed": 12.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 14.272, "shotsAgainst": 119.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9828959307519136, "factor": 0.9828959307519136, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T22:32:34.088Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.05884317146895465, "goalHistoryGoals": 1.0, "goalHistoryShots": 15.0, "goalExpected": 0.08438423013754351, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.08294091642182451, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.08092194924245345, "goalProbability": 0.07959447353447523, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.13274757079782262, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 9, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.434053060550351, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 6.484688928917833, "Current_PP_SOG60": 9.523809523809524, "Current_5v5_Min": 13.364814814814814, "Current_PP_Share": 0.2863636363636364, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.016414141414142, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.4365185950413224, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9235603264096603, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.85, "Position_Factor": 0.9854836768055022, "Input_GP": 9, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 756.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2640.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": null, "Prior_PP_SOG60": null, "Prior_5v5_Min": null, "Prior_PP_Share": null, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.8586256566683613, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.34640522875817, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.8586256566683613, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.85, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 6.484688928917833, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 9.523809523809524, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 1, "playerPriorWeight": 0, "currentSeasonOnly": true }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 1, "playerPriorWeight": 0, "currentSeasonOnly": true }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481611", "goalieName": "Pyotr Kochetkov", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8484790", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481611", "goalieName": "Pyotr Kochetkov", "opponent": "STL", "games": 3, "availableGames": 3, "shotsAgainst": 60.0, "goalsAgainst": 6.0, "savePct": 0.9, "gaa": 2.610587382160986, "gsax": -0.46099999999999985, "log": [ { "gameId": "2024020284", "date": "20241117", "goalieTeam": "CAR", "opponent": "STL", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3598.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.005 }, { "gameId": "2024020084", "date": "20241019", "goalieTeam": "CAR", "opponent": "STL", "shotsAgainst": 19.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3476.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.804 }, { "gameId": "2022020369", "date": "20221201", "goalieTeam": "CAR", "opponent": "STL", "shotsAgainst": 11.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 1200.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 0.73 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.434053060550351, "adjustedSOG": 1.434053060550351, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.434053060550351, "adjustedSOG": 1.434053060550351, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.05884317146895465, "goalHistoryGoals": 1.0, "goalHistoryShots": 15.0, "goalExpected": 0.08438423013754351, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.08438423013754351, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.08092194924245345, "goalProbability": 0.08092194924245345, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.057669647189297846, "modelSOG": 1.434053060550351, "historyGames": 9, "seasonGames": { "2026": 9 }, "historyGoals": 1.0, "historyShots": 15.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.06666666666666667, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.05884317146895465, "goalieFactor": 0.9828959307519136, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": 44.584473324213405, "btb": { "id": "8484790", "name": "Adam Jiříček", "score": 44.584473324213405, "components": { "Goal model": 30.46511627906977, "SOG model": 53.95348837209303, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 32.7906976744186, "Goalie": 50.14705882352941, "Team H2H": 50.0, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Team H2H unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 0, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 282 } }, { "id": "8484794", "name": "Michael Brandsegg-Nygård", "team": "DET", "opponent": "CGY", "position": "R", "currentGP": 9, "currentSOG": 2.4444444444444446, "priorSOG": 1.3571428571428572, "currentTOI": 15.374074074074075, "currentFiveTOI": 13.646296296296295, "ppShare": 0.25142857142857145, "rate": 1.7142154854323632, "fifty": 2.0747065564637333, "inputs": { "Player": "Michael Brandsegg-Nygrd", "Player_ID": "8484794", "Team": "DET", "Opponent": "CGY", "Position": "R", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.5478969310248047, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 2.0362555394351003, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 9, "Prior_GP": 14, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 8.793594788980865, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.411062225015713, "Current_PP_SOG60": 13.636363636363637, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 4.195804195804196, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 12.96169312169312, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 13.646296296296295, "Current_PP_Share": 0.25142857142857145, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.19278595377477514, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 792.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3150.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 5, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.430208333333333, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 1.269777034487886, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 1.3653095238095239, "Other_State_SOG": 0.07539682539682539, "Environment_Proxy": 1.096640755468006, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.3571428571428572, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:40.405668+00:00", "priorGP": 14, "currentTotalSOG": 22.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.4666666666666666, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.44 SOG/game in 9 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 9 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 3.5829999999999997, "currentIXG": 0.3981111111111111, "priorTOI": 12.516666666666666, "priorPPTOI": 1.0214285714285716, "deploymentChange": 2.8574074074074094, "ppTOIChange": 0.445238095238095, "h2hLog": [], "h2hGames": 0, "h2hAvailableGames": 0, "h2hSOG": null, "opponentDefense": { "team": "CGY", "games": 8, "sogAllowedTotal": 237.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 29.625, "mostAllowedRank": 6, "fiveSogAllowed60": 29.8086265894977, "pkSogAllowed60": 38.789888106092, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.5, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 59.0, "C": 89.0, "R": 48.0, "L": 41.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 11.125, "L": 5.125, "R": 6.0, "D": 7.375 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 30.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.5, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 29.625, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.0, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8482445", "team": "CGY", "name": "Devin Cooley", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 3, "savePct": 0.8681318681318682, "gaa": 4.010025062656641, "gsax": -2.561, "goalsAllowed": 12.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 9.439, "shotsAgainst": 91.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0263021756310153, "factor": 1.0263021756310153, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T16:24:22.507Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.10533784853840396, "goalHistoryGoals": 2.0, "goalHistoryShots": 41.0, "goalExpected": 0.2578702901817532, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.26465283984413457, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.22730454820633889, "goalProbability": 0.23252766044972215, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.522311224338326, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 9, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 2.4480307293132073, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 8.793594788980865, "Current_PP_SOG60": 13.636363636363637, "Current_5v5_Min": 13.646296296296295, "Current_PP_Share": 0.25142857142857145, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.430208333333333, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.3653095238095239, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.1111111111111111, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0746225056341803, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9180727421999328, "Position_Factor": 1.002759140132039, "Input_GP": 9, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 792.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3150.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.411062225015713, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 4.195804195804196, "Prior_5v5_Min": 11.364285714285714, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.19278595377477514, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0510018214936248, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.382352941176471, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0510018214936248, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9180727421999328, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 8.793594788980865, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 13.636363636363637, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Reviewed October22 projected lineup and coach reports", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 27, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482445", "goalieName": "Devin Cooley", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8484794", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482445", "goalieName": "Devin Cooley", "opponent": "DET", "games": 1, "availableGames": 1, "shotsAgainst": 29.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "savePct": 0.8620689655172413, "gaa": 4.1248925809223715, "gsax": -1.0219999999999998, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020477", "date": "20251210", "goalieTeam": "CGY", "opponent": "DET", "shotsAgainst": 29.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3491.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.978 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 2.4480307293132073, "adjustedSOG": 2.4480307293132073, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 2.497990540115518, "adjustedSOG": 2.4480307293132073, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.10533784853840396, "goalHistoryGoals": 2.0, "goalHistoryShots": 41.0, "goalExpected": 0.2631329491650543, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.2631329491650543, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.23136029948858935, "goalProbability": 0.23136029948858935, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12852636643914958, "modelSOG": 2.4480307293132073, "historyGames": 23, "seasonGames": { "2025": 14, "2026": 9 }, "historyGoals": 2.0, "historyShots": 41.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.04878048780487805, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.10533784853840396, "goalieFactor": 1.0263021756310153, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": 63.771887824897405, "btb": { "id": "8484794", "name": "Michael Brandsegg-Nygård", "score": 63.771887824897405, "components": { "Goal model": 78.13953488372093, "SOG model": 86.04651162790698, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 92.09302325581395, "Goalie": 71.32352941176471, "Team H2H": 50.0, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Team H2H unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 0, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 45 } }, { "id": "8475324", "name": "Nick Jensen", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "PHI", "position": "D", "currentGP": 1, "currentSOG": 1.0, "priorSOG": 0.5901639344262295, "currentTOI": 18.2, "currentFiveTOI": 16.566666666666666, "ppShare": 0.0, "rate": 0.7122640879902774, "fifty": 0.8848098356666094, "inputs": { "Player": "Nick Jensen", "Player_ID": "8475324", "Team": "ANA", "Opponent": "PHI", "Position": "D", "Current_GP": 1, "Prior_GP": 61, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.6217303822937628, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 2.06515314814171, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 18.94736842105263, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 16.31191256830601, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 16.566666666666666, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.010506974324542496, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 327.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 1, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Measured game-matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Historical skater-team PP minute approximation, existing hybrid method", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.388425925925926, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.01698481585602085, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.0, "Other_State_SOG": 0.029508196721311476, "Environment_Proxy": 1.15, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 0.5901639344262295, "Status": "Historical input object restored from saved prior summaries", "Availability_Note": "Conditional on dressing", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 0.6120337441445648, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 0.7557766527574116 }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/anaheim-ducks/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:40.424099+00:00", "priorGP": 61, "currentTotalSOG": 1.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.0, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.00 SOG/game in 1 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 1 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.175, "currentIXG": 0.175, "priorTOI": 17.008743169398908, "priorPPTOI": 0.051912568306010924, "deploymentChange": 1.191256830601091, "ppTOIChange": -0.051912568306010924, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020907", "date": "20260205", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 21.383333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020232", "date": "20251108", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 18.933333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020112", "date": "20251023", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 20.733333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024021027", "date": "20250311", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 20.966666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2024020258", "date": "20241114", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 19.066666666666666 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 5, "h2hSOG": 0.8, "opponentDefense": { "team": "PHI", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 383.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 31.916666666666668, "mostAllowedRank": 2, "fiveSogAllowed60": 31.042564889030356, "pkSogAllowed60": 46.879209699146834, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.75, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 113.0, "C": 130.0, "R": 73.0, "L": 67.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.833333333333334, "L": 5.583333333333333, "R": 6.083333333333333, "D": 9.416666666666666 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 27.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.833333333333332, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 31.916666666666668, "oppPosSogAllowed": 9.416666666666666, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8479361", "team": "PHI", "name": "Joseph Woll", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 6, "savePct": 0.9166666666666666, "gaa": 2.640143007746253, "gsax": 4.5710000000000015, "goalsAllowed": 16.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 20.571, "shotsAgainst": 192.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9655996195755495, "factor": 0.9655996195755495, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T14:50:13.988Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.06431764360106777, "goalHistoryGoals": 8.0, "goalHistoryShots": 114.0, "goalExpected": 0.07248598433840338, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.06999243890172155, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.06992121776160282, "goalProbability": 0.0675991301460926, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.23220876155102127, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 1, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.127, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.6217303822937628, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 16.566666666666666, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.388425925925926, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.0, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.1165260841882552, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9915761915723407, "Position_Factor": 1.0127905449409682, "Input_GP": 1, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 327.0, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.15, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.34640522875817, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9915761915723407, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 3.6217303822937628, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 0.3333333333333333 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020907", "date": "20260205", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 21.383333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020232", "date": "20251108", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 18.933333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020112", "date": "20251023", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 20.733333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024021027", "date": "20250311", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 20.966666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2024020258", "date": "20241114", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 19.066666666666666 } ], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479361", "goalieName": "Joseph Woll", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8475324", "goals": 0, "sog": 4, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 4, "recordedAttempts": 8, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020939", "date": "20260228", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2023021155", "date": "20240328", "season": 2023, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 3 }, { "gameId": "2023021095", "date": "20240320", "season": 2023, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2 }, { "gameId": "2023020083", "date": "20231024", "season": 2023, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479361", "goalieName": "Joseph Woll", "opponent": "ANA", "games": 3, "availableGames": 3, "shotsAgainst": 91.0, "goalsAgainst": 7.0, "savePct": 0.9230769230769231, "gaa": 2.6359832635983262, "gsax": 2.575, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021029", "date": "20260312", "goalieTeam": "TOR", "opponent": "ANA", "shotsAgainst": 40.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3567.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.449 }, { "gameId": "2024021176", "date": "20250330", "goalieTeam": "TOR", "opponent": "ANA", "shotsAgainst": 31.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3593.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.338 }, { "gameId": "2024020459", "date": "20241212", "goalieTeam": "TOR", "opponent": "ANA", "shotsAgainst": 20.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 2400.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.788 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.127, "adjustedSOG": 1.127, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.15, "adjustedSOG": 1.127, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.06431764360106777, "goalHistoryGoals": 8.0, "goalHistoryShots": 114.0, "goalExpected": 0.07396529014122794, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.07142085602216484, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.07129607153594761, "goalProbability": 0.06893003674052979, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.2366034795417818 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.057639757306285025, "modelSOG": 1.127, "historyGames": 133, "seasonGames": { "2024": 71, "2025": 61, "2026": 1 }, "historyGoals": 8.0, "historyShots": 114.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.07017543859649122, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.06431764360106777, "goalieFactor": 0.9655996195755495, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8483490", "name": "Pavel Mintyukov", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "PHI", "position": "D", "currentGP": 9, "currentSOG": 0.5555555555555556, "priorSOG": 1.082191780821918, "currentTOI": 18.098148148148148, "currentFiveTOI": 14.983333333333333, "ppShare": 0.06131504638967326, "rate": 1.1498549323637641, "fifty": 0.9903137015739416, "inputs": { "Player": "Pavel Mintyukov", "Player_ID": "8483490", "Team": "ANA", "Opponent": "PHI", "Position": "D", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.1350915122145164, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.145955059656515, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 9, "Prior_GP": 73, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.2246941045606228, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.697885196374622, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 3.237410071942446, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 15.022579908675798, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 14.983333333333333, "Current_PP_Share": 0.06131504638967326, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.14545343174006228, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 152.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2479.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 5, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.388425925925926, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.4664036227117409, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.3303915856154662, "Other_State_SOG": 0.09863013698630137, "Environment_Proxy": 1.15, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.082191780821918, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/anaheim-ducks/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:40.441966+00:00", "priorGP": 73, "currentTotalSOG": 5.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.28148148148148144, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.56 SOG/game in 9 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 9 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.458, "currentIXG": 0.05088888888888889, "priorTOI": 18.425342465753424, "priorPPTOI": 0.7616438356164383, "deploymentChange": -0.32719431760527584, "ppTOIChange": -0.4801623541349569, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021082", "date": "20260318", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 19.733333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020670", "date": "20260106", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 23.433333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020675", "date": "20250111", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 18.95 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 3, "h2hSOG": 2.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "PHI", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 383.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 31.916666666666668, "mostAllowedRank": 2, "fiveSogAllowed60": 31.042564889030356, "pkSogAllowed60": 46.879209699146834, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.75, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 113.0, "C": 130.0, "R": 73.0, "L": 67.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.833333333333334, "L": 5.583333333333333, "R": 6.083333333333333, "D": 9.416666666666666 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 27.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.833333333333332, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 31.916666666666668, "oppPosSogAllowed": 9.416666666666666, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8479361", "team": "PHI", "name": "Joseph Woll", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 6, "savePct": 0.9166666666666666, "gaa": 2.640143007746253, "gsax": 4.5710000000000015, "goalsAllowed": 16.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 20.571, "shotsAgainst": 192.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9655996195755495, "factor": 0.9655996195755495, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T14:50:13.988Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.07414069892944496, "goalHistoryGoals": 13.0, "goalHistoryShots": 153.0, "goalExpected": 0.04642031538526913, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.0448234388765929, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.04535937229013479, "goalProbability": 0.043833711275604634, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.15256610145301594, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 9, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 0.626111111111111, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.2246941045606228, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 14.983333333333333, "Current_PP_Share": 0.06131504638967326, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.388425925925926, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.3303915856154662, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.1165260841882552, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9915761915723407, "Position_Factor": 1.0127905449409682, "Input_GP": 9, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 152.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2479.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.697885196374622, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 3.237410071942446, "Prior_5v5_Min": 15.114155251141552, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.14545343174006228, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.15, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.34640522875817, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9915761915723407, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 2.2246941045606228, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 3.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. 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Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479361", "goalieName": "Joseph Woll", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8483490", "goals": 1, "sog": 5, "shootingPct": 0.2, "gamesWithAttempts": 2, "recordedAttempts": 8, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021029", "date": "20260312", "season": 2025, "goals": 1, "sog": 5, "attempts": 6 }, { "gameId": "2024021176", "date": "20250330", "season": 2024, "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 2 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479361", "goalieName": "Joseph Woll", "opponent": "ANA", "games": 3, "availableGames": 3, "shotsAgainst": 91.0, "goalsAgainst": 7.0, "savePct": 0.9230769230769231, "gaa": 2.6359832635983262, "gsax": 2.575, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021029", "date": "20260312", "goalieTeam": "TOR", "opponent": "ANA", "shotsAgainst": 40.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3567.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.449 }, { "gameId": "2024021176", "date": "20250330", "goalieTeam": "TOR", "opponent": "ANA", "shotsAgainst": 31.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3593.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.338 }, { "gameId": "2024020459", "date": "20241212", "goalieTeam": "TOR", "opponent": "ANA", "shotsAgainst": 20.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 2400.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.788 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.626111111111111, "adjustedSOG": 0.626111111111111, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.6388888888888887, "adjustedSOG": 0.626111111111111, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.07414069892944496, "goalHistoryGoals": 13.0, "goalHistoryShots": 153.0, "goalExpected": 0.04736766876047871, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.045738202935298886, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.04626332606147319, "goalProbability": 0.044707977895869985, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.15553481656032028 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05757596829149572, "modelSOG": 0.626111111111111, "historyGames": 150, "seasonGames": { "2024": 68, "2025": 73, "2026": 9 }, "historyGoals": 13.0, "historyShots": 153.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.08496732026143791, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.07414069892944496, "goalieFactor": 0.9655996195755495, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 36.46917934219971, "btb": { "id": "8483490", "name": "Pavel Mintyukov", "score": 36.46917934219971, "components": { "Goal model": 14.186046511627907, "SOG model": 10.465116279069768, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 12.55813953488372, "Goalie": 28.970588235294116, "Team H2H": 57.20024101225145, "Goalie H2H": 53.75805297065139 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 3, "goalieH2HShots": 5, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 392 } }, { "id": "8475287", "name": "Erik Haula", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "NJD", "position": "L", "currentGP": 7, "currentSOG": 2.2857142857142856, "priorSOG": 1.5679012345679013, "currentTOI": 15.938095238095238, "currentFiveTOI": 12.271428571428572, "ppShare": 0.2515592515592516, "rate": 1.5072550953236268, "fifty": 1.6061612144369042, "inputs": { "Player": "Erik Haula", "Player_ID": "8475287", "Team": "LAK", "Opponent": "NJD", "Position": "L", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.4004762330987495, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.5857321136311624, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 7, "Prior_GP": 81, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 6.984866123399302, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.738324514411542, "Current_PP_SOG60": 14.87603305785124, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 8.154020385050963, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 12.346419753086419, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 12.271428571428572, "Current_PP_Share": 0.2515592515592516, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.3599578128608136, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 484.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1924.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 4, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.575661375661376, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 1.299848484087397, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 1.1510499510499512, "Other_State_SOG": 0.20158730158730157, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9357862710703578, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.5679012345679013, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/los-angeles-kings/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:40.460258+00:00", "priorGP": 81, "currentTotalSOG": 16.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.1523809523809523, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.29 SOG/game in 7 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 7 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.641, "currentIXG": 0.23442857142857143, "priorTOI": 16.674074074074074, "priorPPTOI": 1.4534979423868313, "deploymentChange": -0.7359788359788357, "ppTOIChange": -0.301116990005879, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021144", "date": "20260326", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 17.05 }, { "gameId": "2025020848", "date": "20260129", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 15.966666666666667 } ], "h2hGames": 2, "h2hAvailableGames": 2, "h2hSOG": 1.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "NJD", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 234.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 26.0, "mostAllowedRank": 22, "fiveSogAllowed60": 24.374647357532442, "pkSogAllowed60": 52.512155591572125, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 37.111111111111114, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "L": 41.0, "D": 63.0, "C": 78.0, "R": 52.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 8.666666666666666, "L": 4.555555555555555, "R": 5.777777777777778, "D": 7.0 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 25.0, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 25.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 26.0, "oppPosSogAllowed": 4.555555555555555, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8474596", "team": "NJD", "name": "Jake Allen", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 6, "savePct": 0.8834355828220859, "gaa": 3.1496062992125986, "gsax": -3.708, "goalsAllowed": 19.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 15.292, "shotsAgainst": 163.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0365218981504722, "factor": 1.0365218981504722, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T17:31:56.013Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.1100723397029843, "goalHistoryGoals": 26.0, "goalHistoryShots": 253.0, "goalExpected": 0.24066838535125917, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.24945805160909645, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.21389773380315302, "goalProbability": 0.22077703270667853, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.687929890352551, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 7, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 2.1864565248696546, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 6.984866123399302, "Current_PP_SOG60": 14.87603305785124, "Current_5v5_Min": 12.271428571428572, "Current_PP_Share": 0.2515592515592516, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.575661375661376, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.1510499510499512, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.5714285714285714, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9778442581785296, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0469775686735434, "Position_Factor": 0.9932135921568832, "Input_GP": 7, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 484.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1924.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.738324514411542, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 8.154020385050963, "Prior_5v5_Min": 12.521399176954732, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.3599578128608136, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9526009989466888, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.062091503267974, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9526009989466888, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0469775686735434, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 6.984866123399302, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 14.87603305785124, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021144", "date": "20260326", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 17.05 }, { "gameId": "2025020848", "date": "20260129", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 15.966666666666667 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "ppAssignmentSourceDate": "2026-10-11T01:38:00.435Z", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 166, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 23, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8474596", "goalieName": "Jake Allen", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8475287", "goals": 0, "sog": 5, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 3, "recordedAttempts": 6, "log": [ { "gameId": "2023020903", "date": "20240224", "season": 2023, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2 }, { "gameId": "2022020249", "date": "20221115", "season": 2022, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2 }, { "gameId": "2021020646", "date": "20220321", "season": 2021, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8474596", "goalieName": "Jake Allen", "opponent": "LAK", "games": 5, "availableGames": 17, "shotsAgainst": 151.0, "goalsAgainst": 16.0, "savePct": 0.8940397350993378, "gaa": 3.2597623089983023, "gsax": 1.5839999999999996, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021050", "date": "20260314", "goalieTeam": "NJD", "opponent": "LAK", "shotsAgainst": 31.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.558 }, { "gameId": "2024020602", "date": "20250101", "goalieTeam": "NJD", "opponent": "LAK", "shotsAgainst": 23.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3431.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.828 }, { "gameId": "2023020309", "date": "20231125", "goalieTeam": "MTL", "opponent": "LAK", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.339 }, { "gameId": "2022020982", "date": "20230302", "goalieTeam": "MTL", "opponent": "LAK", "shotsAgainst": 33.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3509.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.849 }, { "gameId": "2022020439", "date": "20221210", "goalieTeam": "MTL", "opponent": "LAK", "shotsAgainst": 34.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3530.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.01 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 2.1864565248696546, "adjustedSOG": 2.1864565248696546, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 2.2310780866016886, "adjustedSOG": 2.1864565248696546, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.1100723397029843, "goalHistoryGoals": 26.0, "goalHistoryShots": 253.0, "goalExpected": 0.2455799850523053, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.2455799850523053, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.21774928707201285, "goalProbability": 0.21774928707201285, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12855535915153463, "modelSOG": 2.1864565248696546, "historyGames": 157, "seasonGames": { "2024": 69, "2025": 81, "2026": 7 }, "historyGoals": 26.0, "historyShots": 253.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.10276679841897234, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.1100723397029843, "goalieFactor": 1.0365218981504722, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 58.495967716295866, "btb": { "id": "8475287", "name": "Erik Haula", "score": 58.495967716295866, "components": { "Goal model": 75.81395348837209, "SOG model": 80.23255813953489, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 71.16279069767442, "Goalie": 55.44117647058823, "Team H2H": 46.01827676240209, "Goalie H2H": 47.58410880458125 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 2, "goalieH2HShots": 5, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 107 } }, { "id": "8480855", "name": "Jack McBain", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "TBL", "position": "L", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 1.0, "priorSOG": 1.4133333333333333, "currentTOI": 12.648333333333333, "currentFiveTOI": 11.571666666666667, "ppShare": 0.008352071956312239, "rate": 1.2143017127304867, "fifty": 1.1077339081163398, "inputs": { "Player": "Jack McBain", "Player_ID": "8480855", "Team": "UTA", "Opponent": "TBL", "Position": "C", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.5083706153373264, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.3661550300399328, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 10, "Prior_GP": 75, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.185078496327236, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.763578396022318, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 9.580838323353293, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 11.6131, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 11.571666666666667, "Current_PP_Share": 0.008352071956312239, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.07013452608576892, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 26.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3113.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 6, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.821018518518519, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.12962180021266997, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.0402654935693805, "Other_State_SOG": 0.036000000000000004, "Environment_Proxy": 0.8844868901771036, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.4133333333333333, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/utah-mammoth/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:40.479625+00:00", "priorGP": 75, "currentTotalSOG": 10.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.043333333333333335, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.00 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 2.129, "currentIXG": 0.2129, "priorTOI": 13.846666666666666, "priorPPTOI": 0.334, "deploymentChange": -1.1983333333333324, "ppTOIChange": -0.2906666666666667, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020825", "date": "20260126", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 13.216666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020194", "date": "20251102", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 12.35 }, { "gameId": "2024021145", "date": "20250327", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 14.083333333333334 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 1.3333333333333333, "opponentDefense": { "team": "TBL", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 218.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 24.22222222222222, "mostAllowedRank": 29, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.310572168589594, "pkSogAllowed60": 47.9002079002079, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 36.333333333333336, "positionUnassignedSOG": 1.0, "positionTotals": { "L": 36.0, "R": 49.0, "D": 66.0, "C": 66.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.333333333333333, "L": 4.0, "R": 5.444444444444445, "D": 7.333333333333333 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 24.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.25, "positionSourceDifference": 1.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 24.22222222222222, "oppPosSogAllowed": 4.0, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8483710", "team": "TBL", "name": "Dennis Hildeby", "status": "Unconfirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 2, "savePct": 0.92, "gaa": 2.0089285714285716, "gsax": 0.8719999999999999, "goalsAllowed": 4.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.872, "shotsAgainst": 50.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9926942170737747, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Starter remains unconfirmed per Daily Faceoff; no Model Goal adjustment.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": null }, "goalShootingPct": 0.11716608245520808, "goalHistoryGoals": 23.0, "goalHistoryShots": 206.0, "goalExpected": 0.10552153109162941, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.10552153109162941, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.10014490222436248, "goalProbability": 0.10014490222436248, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 0.9006149977914444, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.185078496327236, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 11.571666666666667, "Current_PP_Share": 0.008352071956312239, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.821018518518519, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.0402654935693805, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9588832837562793, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0032616490671127, "Position_Factor": 0.9867937882386387, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 26.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3113.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.763578396022318, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 9.580838323353293, "Prior_5v5_Min": 11.709777777777777, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.07013452608576892, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9006149977914444, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.062091503267974, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9006149977914444, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0032616490671127, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.185078496327236, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020825", "date": "20260126", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 13.216666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020194", "date": "20251102", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 12.35 }, { "gameId": "2024021145", "date": "20250327", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 14.083333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024021111", "date": "20250322", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 13.266666666666667 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 152, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 7, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8483710", "goalieName": "Dennis Hildeby", "starterStatus": "Unconfirmed", "shooterId": "8480855", "goals": 1, "sog": 7, "shootingPct": 0.14285714285714285, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 8, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020733", "date": "20260113", "season": 2025, "goals": 1, "sog": 7, "attempts": 8 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8483710", "goalieName": "Dennis Hildeby", "opponent": "UTA", "games": 1, "availableGames": 1, "shotsAgainst": 41.0, "goalsAgainst": 6.0, "savePct": 0.8536585365853658, "gaa": 6.0, "gsax": -1.2770000000000001, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020733", "date": "20260113", "goalieTeam": "TOR", "opponent": "UTA", "shotsAgainst": 41.0, "goalsAgainst": 6.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.723 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.9006149977914444, "adjustedSOG": 0.9006149977914444, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.9006149977914444, "adjustedSOG": 0.9006149977914444, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.11716608245520808, "goalHistoryGoals": 23.0, "goalHistoryShots": 206.0, "goalExpected": 0.10552153109162941, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.10552153109162941, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.10014490222436248, "goalProbability": 0.10014490222436248, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1285282123129367, "modelSOG": 0.9006149977914444, "historyGames": 167, "seasonGames": { "2024": 82, "2025": 75, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 23.0, "historyShots": 206.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.11165048543689321, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.11716608245520808, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 46.76867794904713, "btb": { "id": "8480855", "name": "Jack McBain", "score": 46.76867794904713, "components": { "Goal model": 38.372093023255815, "SOG model": 22.325581395348838, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 66.97674418604652, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 41.86870570682581, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Unconfirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": 7, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 255 } }, { "id": "8486161", "name": "Owen Michaels", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "TOR", "position": "C", "currentGP": 9, "currentSOG": 0.8888888888888888, "priorSOG": null, "currentTOI": 13.203703703703702, "currentFiveTOI": 11.727777777777778, "ppShare": 0.026056060007895777, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:40.482618+00:00", "priorGP": null, "currentTotalSOG": 8.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.12222222222222223, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.89 SOG/game in 9 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 9 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.348, "currentIXG": 0.03866666666666666, "priorTOI": null, "priorPPTOI": null, "deploymentChange": null, "ppTOIChange": null, "h2hLog": [], "h2hGames": 0, "h2hAvailableGames": 0, "h2hSOG": null, "opponentDefense": { "team": "TOR", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 332.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 30.181818181818183, "mostAllowedRank": 5, "fiveSogAllowed60": 28.565965583173995, "pkSogAllowed60": 43.340857787810386, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.0, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 130.0, "D": 98.0, "R": 49.0, "L": 55.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 11.818181818181818, "L": 5.0, "R": 4.454545454545454, "D": 8.909090909090908 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 30.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 35.25, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 30.181818181818183, "oppPosSogAllowed": 11.818181818181818, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8476932", "team": "TOR", "name": "Anthony Stolarz", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 4, "savePct": 0.8974358974358975, "gaa": 2.9929333518082304, "gsax": 0.46399999999999864, "goalsAllowed": 12.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 12.463999999999999, "shotsAgainst": 117.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9986972168772468, "factor": 0.9986972168772468, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T20:54:34.227Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.1374894300316761, "goalHistoryGoals": 2.0, "goalHistoryShots": 8.0, "goalExpected": 0.13835794553598738, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.13817769513964429, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.1292130583442114, "goalProbability": 0.12905608450597428, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.01569738382371233, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 9, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.0063169619956325, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.547607768829939, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 11.727777777777778, "Current_PP_Share": 0.026056060007895777, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.365824915824916, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.1398122559985963, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0610638532936316, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9495764141752431, "Position_Factor": 1.0170180623562712, "Input_GP": 9, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 66.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2533.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": null, "Prior_PP_SOG60": null, "Prior_5v5_Min": null, "Prior_PP_Share": null, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.1321065822450864, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.437908496732026, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.1321065822450864, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9495764141752431, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 4.547607768829939, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Reviewed October22 projected lineup and coach reports", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 1, "playerPriorWeight": 0, "currentSeasonOnly": true }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 1, "playerPriorWeight": 0, "currentSeasonOnly": true }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476932", "goalieName": "Anthony Stolarz", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8486161", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476932", "goalieName": "Anthony Stolarz", "opponent": "EDM", "games": 5, "availableGames": 5, "shotsAgainst": 140.0, "goalsAgainst": 14.0, "savePct": 0.9, "gaa": 3.2642487046632125, "gsax": -1.5539999999999994, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020891", "date": "20260203", "goalieTeam": "TOR", "opponent": "EDM", "shotsAgainst": 36.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.709 }, { "gameId": "2024020274", "date": "20241116", "goalieTeam": "TOR", "opponent": "EDM", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3640.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.584 }, { "gameId": "2022020660", "date": "20230111", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "EDM", "shotsAgainst": 16.0, "goalsAgainst": 0.0, "seconds": 1200.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.249 }, { "gameId": "2021020049", "date": "20211019", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "EDM", "shotsAgainst": 36.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3461.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.959 }, { "gameId": "2018020494", "date": "20181214", "goalieTeam": "PHI", "opponent": "EDM", "shotsAgainst": 22.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3539.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.945 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.0063169619956325, "adjustedSOG": 1.0063169619956325, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.0063169619956325, "adjustedSOG": 1.0063169619956325, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. 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Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.134, "currentIXG": 0.0335, "priorTOI": 18.33859649122807, "priorPPTOI": 0.04824561403508772, "deploymentChange": -5.592763157894737, "ppTOIChange": 0.02675438596491228, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021240", "date": "20260407", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 15.233333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020693", "date": "20260108", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 15.933333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020465", "date": "20251208", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 18.683333333333334 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 1.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "MIN", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 261.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 26.1, "mostAllowedRank": 21, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.40367597004765, "pkSogAllowed60": 45.30289727831431, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 40.4, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 77.0, "C": 114.0, "R": 29.0, "L": 41.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 11.4, "L": 4.1, "R": 2.9, "D": 7.7 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 24.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 28.333333333333332, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 26.1, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.7, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8482661", "team": "MIN", "name": "Jesper Wallstedt", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 9, "savePct": 0.9152542372881356, "gaa": 2.1979363819525, "gsax": 6.934999999999999, "goalsAllowed": 20.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 26.935, "shotsAgainst": 236.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9495343259526882, "factor": 0.9495343259526882, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T18:37:27.914Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.05499349200969424, "goalHistoryGoals": 6.0, "goalHistoryShots": 114.0, "goalExpected": 0.04223771728942965, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.040106162416198785, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.04135813226218523, "goalProbability": 0.03931255516191826, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.20455771002669682, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 4, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 0.7680493772241994, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.321728691476591, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 10.4125, "Current_PP_Share": 0.01875, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.085, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.09534374999999999, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.957587153238364, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9748801923935355, "Position_Factor": 1.0117153945269357, "Input_GP": 4, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 18.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 960.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 2.3084486370178263, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 15.38969298245614, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.011589462685784736, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0240658362989326, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.34640522875817, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0240658362989326, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9748801923935355, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 4.321728691476591, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 2.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 1.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021240", "date": "20260407", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 15.233333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020693", "date": "20260108", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 15.933333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020465", "date": "20251208", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 18.683333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024021030", "date": "20250311", "team": "COL", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 16.133333333333333 } ], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 87, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. 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Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.05499349200969424, "goalHistoryGoals": 6.0, "goalHistoryShots": 114.0, "goalExpected": 0.04223771728942965, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.04223771728942965, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.04135813226218523, "goalProbability": 0.04135813226218523, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.057686072900745684, "modelSOG": 0.7680493772241994, "historyGames": 152, "seasonGames": { "2024": 72, "2025": 76, "2026": 4 }, "historyGoals": 6.0, "historyShots": 114.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.05263157894736842, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.05499349200969424, "goalieFactor": 0.9495343259526882, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8484234", "name": "Aydar Suniev", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "DET", "position": "L", "currentGP": 5, "currentSOG": 1.4, "priorSOG": 1.5, "currentTOI": 14.146666666666667, "currentFiveTOI": 12.36, "ppShare": 0.3083832335329341, "rate": 1.6162346041161402, "fifty": 1.5439358119456452, "inputs": { "Player": "Aydar Suniev", "Player_ID": "8484234", "Team": "CGY", "Opponent": "DET", "Position": "L", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.5504238821897718, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.4156622000438062, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 5, "Prior_GP": 6, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.825242718446602, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 7.03125, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 6.509945750452079, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 11.638666666666666, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 12.36, "Current_PP_Share": 0.3083832335329341, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.4078831381438106, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 309.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1002.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 2, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.265740740740741, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 1.4428151620823333, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 1.3154829230428033, "Other_State_SOG": 0.16999999999999998, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9911254066849144, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.5, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:40.522717+00:00", "priorGP": 6, "currentTotalSOG": 7.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.03, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.40 SOG/game in 5 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 5 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.999, "currentIXG": 0.1998, "priorTOI": 11.622222222222222, "priorPPTOI": 1.5361111111111112, "deploymentChange": 2.5244444444444447, "ppTOIChange": -0.5061111111111112, "h2hLog": [], "h2hGames": 0, "h2hAvailableGames": 0, "h2hSOG": null, "opponentDefense": { "team": "DET", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 243.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.0, "mostAllowedRank": 17, "fiveSogAllowed60": 24.49072666463971, "pkSogAllowed60": 47.14573539288113, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 41.22222222222222, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 39.0, "C": 96.0, "D": 73.0, "L": 35.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.666666666666666, "L": 3.888888888888889, "R": 4.333333333333333, "D": 8.11111111111111 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 29.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 2, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 28.5, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.0, "oppPosSogAllowed": 3.888888888888889, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8476434", "team": "DET", "name": "John Gibson", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 6, "savePct": 0.8734177215189873, "gaa": 3.5755077717634207, "gsax": -1.6310000000000002, "goalsAllowed": 20.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 18.369, "shotsAgainst": 158.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0182492009293351, "factor": 1.0182492009293351, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T17:52:44.365Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.12692212514038795, "goalHistoryGoals": 2.0, "goalHistoryShots": 17.0, "goalExpected": 0.16097042667307085, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.16390800833310853, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.1486827529818519, "goalProbability": 0.15117989733510395, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.24971443532520454, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 5, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.2682613570724746, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.825242718446602, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 12.36, "Current_PP_Share": 0.3083832335329341, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.265740740740741, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.3154829230428033, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.2, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9801217943191682, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9957661672519493, "Position_Factor": 0.9733472642225318, "Input_GP": 5, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 309.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1002.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 7.03125, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 6.509945750452079, "Prior_5v5_Min": 9.955555555555556, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.4078831381438106, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.8902177975603955, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.062091503267974, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.8902177975603955, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9957661672519493, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.825242718446602, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Reviewed October22 projected lineup and coach reports", "ppAssignmentSourceDate": "2026-10-12T17:12:03.968Z", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 8, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476434", "goalieName": "John Gibson", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8484234", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476434", "goalieName": "John Gibson", "opponent": "CGY", "games": 5, "availableGames": 25, "shotsAgainst": 152.0, "goalsAgainst": 14.0, "savePct": 0.9078947368421053, "gaa": 2.9964328180737216, "gsax": 0.16800000000000015, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021063", "date": "20260316", "goalieTeam": "DET", "opponent": "CGY", "shotsAgainst": 27.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3589.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.703 }, { "gameId": "2025020477", "date": "20251210", "goalieTeam": "DET", "opponent": "CGY", "shotsAgainst": 37.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.965 }, { "gameId": "2024021203", "date": "20250403", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "CGY", "shotsAgainst": 26.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 2381.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.555 }, { "gameId": "2024020818", "date": "20250130", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "CGY", "shotsAgainst": 29.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3525.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.091 }, { "gameId": "2024020648", "date": "20250107", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "CGY", "shotsAgainst": 33.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3725.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.854 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.2682613570724746, "adjustedSOG": 1.2682613570724746, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.2682613570724746, "adjustedSOG": 1.2682613570724746, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.12692212514038795, "goalHistoryGoals": 2.0, "goalHistoryShots": 17.0, "goalExpected": 0.16097042667307085, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.16097042667307085, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.1486827529818519, "goalProbability": 0.1486827529818519, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1284988864142539, "modelSOG": 1.2682613570724746, "historyGames": 12, "seasonGames": { "2024": 1, "2025": 6, "2026": 5 }, "historyGoals": 2.0, "historyShots": 17.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.11764705882352941, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.12692212514038795, "goalieFactor": 1.0182492009293351, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": 47.49418604651163, "btb": { "id": "8484234", "name": "Aydar Suniev", "score": 47.49418604651163, "components": { "Goal model": 55.348837209302324, "SOG model": 45.58139534883721, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 63.95348837209303, "Goalie": 2.5, "Team H2H": 50.0, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Team H2H unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 0, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 239 } }, { "id": "8479992", "name": "Michael Rasmussen", "team": "DET", "opponent": "CGY", "position": "L", "currentGP": 9, "currentSOG": 1.1111111111111112, "priorSOG": 1.015625, "currentTOI": 16.909259259259258, "currentFiveTOI": 12.54074074074074, "ppShare": 0.2803174603174603, "rate": 1.2470434176441747, "fifty": 1.3158126226850118, "inputs": { "Player": "Michael Rasmussen", "Player_ID": "8479992", "Team": "DET", "Opponent": "CGY", "Position": "C", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.1030865446580242, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.2018876609070677, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 9, "Prior_GP": 64, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.31600708800945, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.746325504175009, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 4.411764705882353, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 11.978362268518516, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 12.54074074074074, "Current_PP_Share": 0.2803174603174603, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.04010756730629062, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 883.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3150.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 5, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.430208333333333, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 1.1308652801612, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 1.5221822089947088, "Other_State_SOG": 0.140625, "Environment_Proxy": 1.096640755468006, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.015625, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:40.541207+00:00", "priorGP": 64, "currentTotalSOG": 10.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.6351851851851853, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.11 SOG/game in 9 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 9 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.854, "currentIXG": 0.09488888888888888, "priorTOI": 12.65, "priorPPTOI": 0.2125, "deploymentChange": 4.259259259259258, "ppTOIChange": 1.4226851851851854, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020477", "date": "20251210", "team": "DET", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 14.3 }, { "gameId": "2024020834", "date": "20250201", "team": "DET", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 14.816666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020350", "date": "20241127", "team": "DET", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 16.85 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 3, "h2hSOG": 1.6666666666666667, "opponentDefense": { "team": "CGY", "games": 8, "sogAllowedTotal": 237.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 29.625, "mostAllowedRank": 6, "fiveSogAllowed60": 29.8086265894977, "pkSogAllowed60": 38.789888106092, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.5, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 59.0, "C": 89.0, "R": 48.0, "L": 41.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 11.125, "L": 5.125, "R": 6.0, "D": 7.375 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 30.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.5, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 29.625, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.125, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8482445", "team": "CGY", "name": "Devin Cooley", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 3, "savePct": 0.8681318681318682, "gaa": 4.010025062656641, "gsax": -2.561, "goalsAllowed": 12.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 9.439, "shotsAgainst": 91.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0263021756310153, "factor": 1.0263021756310153, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T16:24:22.507Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.10856225243549941, "goalHistoryGoals": 17.0, "goalHistoryShots": 175.0, "goalExpected": 0.11886514928372857, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.12199156131659605, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.11207246964757675, "goalProbability": 0.11484416197900918, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.27716923314324293, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 9, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.0949031234807003, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.31600708800945, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 12.54074074074074, "Current_PP_Share": 0.2803174603174603, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.430208333333333, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.5221822089947088, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0746225056341803, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9180727421999328, "Position_Factor": 0.9923066376474455, "Input_GP": 9, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 883.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3150.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.746325504175009, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 4.411764705882353, "Prior_5v5_Min": 10.666145833333333, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.04010756730629062, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0055232766659494, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.062091503267974, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0055232766659494, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9180727421999328, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.31600708800945, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 1.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020477", "date": "20251210", "team": "DET", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 14.3 }, { "gameId": "2024020834", "date": "20250201", "team": "DET", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 14.816666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020350", "date": "20241127", "team": "DET", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 16.85 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Reviewed October22 projected lineup and coach reports", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 89, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482445", "goalieName": "Devin Cooley", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8479992", "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 2, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020477", "date": "20251210", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482445", "goalieName": "Devin Cooley", "opponent": "DET", "games": 1, "availableGames": 1, "shotsAgainst": 29.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "savePct": 0.8620689655172413, "gaa": 4.1248925809223715, "gsax": -1.0219999999999998, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020477", "date": "20251210", "goalieTeam": "CGY", "opponent": "DET", "shotsAgainst": 29.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3491.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.978 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.0949031234807003, "adjustedSOG": 1.0949031234807003, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.117248085184388, "adjustedSOG": 1.0949031234807003, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.10856225243549941, "goalHistoryGoals": 17.0, "goalHistoryShots": 175.0, "goalExpected": 0.12129096865686588, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.12129096865686588, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.11422381101488231, "goalProbability": 0.11422381101488231, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1285461941976234, "modelSOG": 1.0949031234807003, "historyGames": 150, "seasonGames": { "2024": 77, "2025": 64, "2026": 9 }, "historyGoals": 17.0, "historyShots": 175.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.09714285714285714, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.10856225243549941, "goalieFactor": 1.0263021756310153, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 47.5470025838976, "btb": { "id": "8479992", "name": "Michael Rasmussen", "score": 47.5470025838976, "components": { "Goal model": 42.55813953488372, "SOG model": 36.04651162790697, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 26.046511627906977, "Goalie": 71.32352941176471, "Team H2H": 49.819240811407916, "Goalie H2H": 50.23158869847151 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 3, "goalieH2HShots": 1, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 238 } }, { "id": "8480029", "name": "Alex Formenton", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "TOR", "position": "L", "currentGP": 9, "currentSOG": 1.3333333333333333, "priorSOG": null, "currentTOI": 14.52037037037037, "currentFiveTOI": 12.196296296296296, "ppShare": 0.0094749309119621, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:40.542625+00:00", "priorGP": null, "currentTotalSOG": 12.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.044444444444444446, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.33 SOG/game in 9 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 9 games. 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Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 1, "playerPriorWeight": 0, "currentSeasonOnly": true }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. 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Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.359, "currentIXG": 0.08975, "priorTOI": null, "priorPPTOI": null, "deploymentChange": null, "ppTOIChange": null, "h2hLog": [], "h2hGames": 0, "h2hAvailableGames": 0, "h2hSOG": null, "opponentDefense": { "team": "PIT", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 279.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.9, "mostAllowedRank": 12, "fiveSogAllowed60": 26.122338261223383, "pkSogAllowed60": 50.11600928074246, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 42.4, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 55.0, "L": 47.0, "D": 70.0, "C": 107.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.7, "L": 4.7, "R": 5.5, "D": 7.0 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 25.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 3, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 28.333333333333332, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.9, "oppPosSogAllowed": 10.7, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8481668", "team": "PIT", "name": "Arturs Silovs", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 6, "savePct": 0.8662420382165605, "gaa": 3.5131744040150563, "gsax": -1.0760000000000005, "goalsAllowed": 21.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 19.924, "shotsAgainst": 157.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0136052553954562, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Likely starter per Daily Faceoff; no Model Goal adjustment until confirmed.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T15:01:09.604Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.12355944386087889, "goalHistoryGoals": 0.0, "goalHistoryShots": 4.0, "goalExpected": 0.12415102180875535, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.12415102180875535, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.11675355866526319, "goalProbability": 0.11675355866526319, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 4, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.0047878003444444, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 6.146841206602163, "Current_PP_SOG60": 10.588235294117647, "Current_5v5_Min": 7.320833333333334, "Current_PP_Share": 0.2537313432835821, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.906041666666667, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.2448165422885573, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.011083778612368, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0249142728068137, "Position_Factor": 1.013339402198195, "Input_GP": 4, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 340.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1340.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": null, "Prior_PP_SOG60": null, "Prior_5v5_Min": null, "Prior_PP_Share": null, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0668628808864264, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.437908496732026, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0668628808864264, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0249142728068137, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 6.146841206602163, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 10.588235294117647, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. 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Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 1, "playerPriorWeight": 0, "currentSeasonOnly": true }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 1, "playerPriorWeight": 0, "currentSeasonOnly": true }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481668", "goalieName": "Arturs Silovs", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8486189", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481668", "goalieName": "Arturs Silovs", "opponent": "NSH", "games": 2, "availableGames": 2, "shotsAgainst": 62.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "savePct": 0.9193548387096774, "gaa": 2.397123451857771, "gsax": 1.6559999999999997, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020281", "date": "20251114", "goalieTeam": "PIT", "opponent": "NSH", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3644.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.231 }, { "gameId": "2022021010", "date": "20230306", "goalieTeam": "VAN", "opponent": "NSH", "shotsAgainst": 32.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3865.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.425 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.0047878003444444, "adjustedSOG": 1.0047878003444444, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.0252936738208616, "adjustedSOG": 1.0047878003444444, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.12355944386087889, "goalHistoryGoals": 0.0, "goalHistoryShots": 4.0, "goalExpected": 0.12668471613138302, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.12668471613138302, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.11898860250453579, "goalProbability": 0.11898860250453579, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12850182161531404, "modelSOG": 1.0047878003444444, "historyGames": 4, "seasonGames": { "2026": 4 }, "historyGoals": 0.0, "historyShots": 4.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.0, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.12355944386087889, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": 47.2906976744186, "btb": { "id": "8486189", "name": "Vitali Pinchuk", "score": 47.2906976744186, "components": { "Goal model": 45.348837209302324, "SOG model": 29.302325581395348, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 42.55813953488372, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 50.0, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral", "Team H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Likely", "h2hGames": 0, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 245 } }, { "id": "8482482", "name": "Adam Wilsby", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "PIT", "position": "D", "currentGP": 8, "currentSOG": 0.875, "priorSOG": 1.0172413793103448, "currentTOI": 18.733333333333334, "currentFiveTOI": 16.645833333333332, "ppShare": 0.0034078000757288905, "rate": 1.061592023633606, "fifty": 0.9484299138681791, "inputs": { "Player": "Adam Wilsby", "Player_ID": "8482482", "Team": "NSH", "Opponent": "PIT", "Position": "D", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 0.9097944436997386, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 0.8112837221949118, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 8, "Prior_GP": 58, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.252816020025031, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.6072144288577155, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 16.29794540229885, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 16.645833333333332, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0034078000757288905, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.00811265094494853, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 9.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2641.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 5, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.906041666666667, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.02364346748314909, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.01671880916319576, "Other_State_SOG": 0.10258620689655173, "Environment_Proxy": 1.0227478110844896, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.0172413793103448, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/nashville-predators/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:40.559556+00:00", "priorGP": 58, "currentTotalSOG": 7.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.01875, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.88 SOG/game in 8 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 8 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.601, "currentIXG": 0.075125, "priorTOI": 17.008333333333333, "priorPPTOI": 0.03275862068965517, "deploymentChange": 1.7250000000000014, "ppTOIChange": -0.01400862068965517, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020296", "date": "20251116", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "PIT", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 14.383333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020281", "date": "20251114", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "PIT", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 11.566666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020830", "date": "20250201", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "PIT", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 20.15 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 2.3333333333333335, "opponentDefense": { "team": "PIT", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 279.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.9, "mostAllowedRank": 12, "fiveSogAllowed60": 26.122338261223383, "pkSogAllowed60": 50.11600928074246, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 42.4, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 55.0, "L": 47.0, "D": 70.0, "C": 107.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.7, "L": 4.7, "R": 5.5, "D": 7.0 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 25.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 3, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 28.333333333333332, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.9, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.0, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8481668", "team": "PIT", "name": "Arturs Silovs", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 6, "savePct": 0.8662420382165605, "gaa": 3.5131744040150563, "gsax": -1.0760000000000005, "goalsAllowed": 21.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 19.924, "shotsAgainst": 157.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0136052553954562, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Likely starter per Daily Faceoff; no Model Goal adjustment until confirmed.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T15:01:09.604Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.03907469379213124, "goalHistoryGoals": 2.0, "goalHistoryShots": 99.0, "goalExpected": 0.03294228736126007, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.03294228736126007, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.03240559959626659, "goalProbability": 0.03240559959626659, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 8, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 0.8430593861209963, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.252816020025031, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 16.645833333333332, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0034078000757288905, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.906041666666667, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.01671880916319576, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.25, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.011083778612368, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0249142728068137, "Position_Factor": 0.9912682240844909, "Input_GP": 8, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 9.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2641.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.6072144288577155, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 15.486206896551725, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.00811265094494853, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9764234875444839, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.34640522875817, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9764234875444839, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0249142728068137, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 2.252816020025031, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020296", "date": "20251116", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "PIT", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 14.383333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020281", "date": "20251114", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "PIT", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 11.566666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020830", "date": "20250201", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "PIT", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 20.15 }, { "gameId": "2024020515", "date": "20241219", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "PIT", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 19.266666666666666 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 85, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481668", "goalieName": "Arturs Silovs", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8482482", "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 5, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020281", "date": "20251114", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 5 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481668", "goalieName": "Arturs Silovs", "opponent": "NSH", "games": 2, "availableGames": 2, "shotsAgainst": 62.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "savePct": 0.9193548387096774, "gaa": 2.397123451857771, "gsax": 1.6559999999999997, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020281", "date": "20251114", "goalieTeam": "PIT", "opponent": "NSH", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3644.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.231 }, { "gameId": "2022021010", "date": "20230306", "goalieTeam": "VAN", "opponent": "NSH", "shotsAgainst": 32.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3865.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.425 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.8430593861209963, "adjustedSOG": 0.8430593861209963, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.8602646797153024, "adjustedSOG": 0.8430593861209963, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.03907469379213124, "goalHistoryGoals": 2.0, "goalHistoryShots": 99.0, "goalExpected": 0.0336145789400613, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.0336145789400613, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.0330558865476398, "goalProbability": 0.0330558865476398, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05775864064634118, "modelSOG": 0.8430593861209963, "historyGames": 89, "seasonGames": { "2024": 23, "2025": 58, "2026": 8 }, "historyGoals": 2.0, "historyShots": 99.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.020202020202020204, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.03907469379213124, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 37.838024687074416, "btb": { "id": "8482482", "name": "Adam Wilsby", "score": 37.838024687074416, "components": { "Goal model": 8.13953488372093, "SOG model": 18.372093023255815, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 20.697674418604652, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 54.81163744871317, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Likely", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": 3, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 378 } }, { "id": "8476422", "name": "Mike Reilly", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "STL", "position": "D", "currentGP": 8, "currentSOG": 1.125, "priorSOG": 1.5, "currentTOI": 12.439583333333333, "currentFiveTOI": 11.875, "ppShare": 0.008856682769726247, "rate": 1.3812183696726854, "fifty": 1.3236604119206858, "inputs": { "Player": "Mike Reilly", "Player_ID": "8476422", "Team": "CAR", "Opponent": "STL", "Position": "D", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.468001861901851, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.3570564816874544, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 8, "Prior_GP": 42, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.684210526315789, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.802707930367505, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 11.688311688311689, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 12.374642857142856, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 11.875, "Current_PP_Share": 0.008856682769726247, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.027660990337053153, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 22.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2484.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 5, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 6.0017676767676775, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.08701347797320234, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.05315575237072822, "Other_State_SOG": 0.15, "Environment_Proxy": 1.00049372648272, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.5, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:40.577079+00:00", "priorGP": 42, "currentTotalSOG": 9.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.04583333333333333, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.12 SOG/game in 8 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 8 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.432, "currentIXG": 0.054, "priorTOI": 14.96547619047619, "priorPPTOI": 0.12222222222222223, "deploymentChange": -2.525892857142857, "ppTOIChange": -0.0763888888888889, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021033", "date": "20260312", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "STL", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 14.133333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020730", "date": "20260113", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "STL", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 13.833333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020068", "date": "20241017", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "STL", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 14.966666666666667 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 3, "h2hSOG": 1.3333333333333333, "opponentDefense": { "team": "STL", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 246.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.333333333333332, "mostAllowedRank": 15, "fiveSogAllowed60": 24.991224991224993, "pkSogAllowed60": 45.92737978410206, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 41.333333333333336, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 29.0, "L": 56.0, "D": 69.0, "C": 92.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.222222222222221, "L": 6.222222222222222, "R": 3.2222222222222223, "D": 7.666666666666667 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 27.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 3, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27.666666666666668, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.333333333333332, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.666666666666667, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8480981", "team": "STL", "name": "Joel Hofer", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 6, "savePct": 0.9192546583850931, "gaa": 2.1949160491511117, "gsax": 2.83, "goalsAllowed": 13.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 15.83, "shotsAgainst": 161.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9785370006226618, "factor": 0.9785370006226618, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T15:44:23.131Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.03339268050982992, "goalHistoryGoals": 1.0, "goalHistoryShots": 103.0, "goalExpected": 0.03757566648355127, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.03676917997721174, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.036878461056468206, "goalProbability": 0.03610140323013736, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.07770578263308486, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 8, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.1252665527252292, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.684210526315789, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 11.875, "Current_PP_Share": 0.008856682769726247, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 6.0017676767676775, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.05315575237072822, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9895702550696535, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9828075032932179, "Position_Factor": 1.0047192141124446, "Input_GP": 8, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 22.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2484.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.802707930367505, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 11.688311688311689, "Prior_5v5_Min": 13.540476190476191, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.027660990337053153, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0206499344446525, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.34640522875817, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0206499344446525, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9828075032932179, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.684210526315789, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 1.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021033", "date": "20260312", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "STL", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 14.133333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020730", "date": "20260113", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "STL", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 13.833333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020068", "date": "20241017", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "STL", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 14.966666666666667 } ], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Reviewed October22 projected lineup and coach reports", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 83, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. 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Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.03339268050982992, "goalHistoryGoals": 1.0, "goalHistoryShots": 103.0, "goalExpected": 0.038342516819950274, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.0375195714053181, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.03761674801861782, "goalProbability": 0.036824433163057835, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.07923148555599863 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05778714143495474, "modelSOG": 1.1252665527252292, "historyGames": 68, "seasonGames": { "2024": 18, "2025": 42, "2026": 8 }, "historyGoals": 1.0, "historyShots": 103.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.009708737864077669, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.03339268050982992, "goalieFactor": 0.9785370006226618, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8486103", "name": "Ivar Stenberg", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "BOS", "position": "L", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 1.5, "priorSOG": null, "currentTOI": 15.896666666666667, "currentFiveTOI": 12.26, "ppShare": 0.5536427912695973, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:40.578367+00:00", "priorGP": null, "currentTotalSOG": 15.0, "currentPPTOI": 3.0016666666666665, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.50 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. 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Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480981", "goalieName": "Joel Hofer", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8484203", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480981", "goalieName": "Joel Hofer", "opponent": "CAR", "games": 4, "availableGames": 4, "shotsAgainst": 121.0, "goalsAgainst": 10.0, "savePct": 0.9173553719008265, "gaa": 2.5300442757748263, "gsax": 1.0949999999999998, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020730", "date": "20260113", "goalieTeam": "STL", "opponent": "CAR", "shotsAgainst": 33.0, "goalsAgainst": 0.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.698 }, { "gameId": "2024020284", "date": "20241117", "goalieTeam": "STL", "opponent": "CAR", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.293 }, { "gameId": "2024020084", "date": "20241019", "goalieTeam": "STL", "opponent": "CAR", "shotsAgainst": 40.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.792 }, { "gameId": "2021020216", "date": "20211113", "goalieTeam": "STL", "opponent": "CAR", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3429.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.312 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.0863878223641739, "adjustedSOG": 1.0863878223641739, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.1085590024124223, "adjustedSOG": 1.0863878223641739, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.12885922451755075, "goalHistoryGoals": 3.0, "goalHistoryShots": 23.0, "goalExpected": 0.14284805338281442, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.1397821057020051, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.1331142207495925, "goalProbability": 0.13045231575962427, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.2661904989968239 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12849684615658744, "modelSOG": 1.0863878223641739, "historyGames": 17, "seasonGames": { "2024": 2, "2025": 12, "2026": 3 }, "historyGoals": 3.0, "historyShots": 23.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.13043478260869565, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.12885922451755075, "goalieFactor": 0.9785370006226618, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": 50.870383036935706, "btb": { "id": "8484203", "name": "Bradly Nadeau", "score": 50.870383036935706, "components": { "Goal model": 48.83720930232558, "SOG model": 35.348837209302324, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 52.325581395348834, "Goalie": 66.02941176470588, "Team H2H": 50.0, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Team H2H unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 0, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 193 } }, { "id": "8478460", "name": "Zach Werenski", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "VGK", "position": "D", "currentGP": 8, "currentSOG": 3.0, "priorSOG": 3.466666666666667, "currentTOI": 29.095833333333335, "currentFiveTOI": 21.310416666666665, "ppShare": 0.7777322963569382, "rate": 3.1737340602675985, "fifty": 2.971739948914538, "inputs": { "Player": "Zach Werenski", "Player_ID": "8478460", "Team": "CBJ", "Opponent": "VGK", "Position": "D", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 3.1203039105876775, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 2.6232787958281945, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 8, "Prior_GP": 75, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.575227294945742, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 7.1156661786237185, "Current_PP_SOG60": 15.157894736842104, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 11.634349030470915, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 21.29195833333333, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 21.310416666666665, "Current_PP_Share": 0.7777322963569382, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.6667429965745393, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1900.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2443.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 4, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.052367424242425, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 3.0167261956748104, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 3.1516570225381115, "Other_State_SOG": 0.34950000000000003, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9217353117054976, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 3.466666666666667, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:40.612809+00:00", "priorGP": 75, "currentTotalSOG": 24.0, "currentPPTOI": 3.9583333333333335, "volumeNote": "Observed 3.00 SOG/game in 8 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 8 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.342, "currentIXG": 0.16775, "priorTOI": 26.61422222222222, "priorPPTOI": 2.888, "deploymentChange": 2.481611111111114, "ppTOIChange": 1.0703333333333336, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020692", "date": "20260108", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 28.0 }, { "gameId": "2025020502", "date": "20251213", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 25.883333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024021045", "date": "20250313", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 27.883333333333333 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 2.3333333333333335, "opponentDefense": { "team": "VGK", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 275.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 25.0, "mostAllowedRank": 27, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.585792714368043, "pkSogAllowed60": 47.03517587939699, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 38.72727272727273, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 59.0, "C": 80.0, "R": 61.0, "L": 75.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.2727272727272725, "L": 6.818181818181818, "R": 5.545454545454546, "D": 5.363636363636363 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 26.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 25.75, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 25.0, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.363636363636363, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8479394", "team": "VGK", "name": "Carter Hart", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.8876404494382022, "gaa": 2.8716148845371516, "gsax": -1.5090000000000003, "goalsAllowed": 20.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 18.491, "shotsAgainst": 178.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.017200797231895, "factor": 1.017200797231895, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T22:33:02.238Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.07439956983205627, "goalHistoryGoals": 45.0, "goalHistoryShots": 582.0, "goalExpected": 0.19068915293865182, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.1939691583926714, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.17361057104445887, "goalProbability": 0.17631669240602893, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.27061213615700574, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 8, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 2.5630410682359925, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.575227294945742, "Current_PP_SOG60": 15.157894736842104, "Current_5v5_Min": 21.310416666666665, "Current_PP_Share": 0.7777322963569382, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.052367424242425, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 3.1516570225381115, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.375, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9589471960166247, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9956874166464801, "Position_Factor": 0.9732049652601255, "Input_GP": 8, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1900.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2443.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 7.1156661786237185, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 11.634349030470915, "Prior_5v5_Min": 21.24888888888889, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.6667429965745393, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.8586256566683613, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.34640522875817, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.8586256566683613, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9956874166464801, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 3.46227826458645, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 13.024602026049203, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 3.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020692", "date": "20260108", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 28.0 }, { "gameId": "2025020502", "date": "20251213", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 25.883333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024021045", "date": "20250313", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 27.883333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020820", "date": "20250130", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 28.083333333333332 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "NHL.com October 20 game-specific projected lineup", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 287, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 55, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479394", "goalieName": "Carter Hart", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8478460", "goals": 1, "sog": 15, "shootingPct": 0.06666666666666667, "gamesWithAttempts": 6, "recordedAttempts": 24, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020692", "date": "20260108", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2025020502", "date": "20251213", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 4 }, { "gameId": "2023020011", "date": "20231012", "season": 2023, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2022020214", "date": "20221110", "season": 2022, "goals": 1, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2 }, { "gameId": "2021021118", "date": "20220405", "season": 2021, "goals": 0, "sog": 4, "attempts": 8 }, { "gameId": "2021020706", "date": "20220120", "season": 2021, "goals": 0, "sog": 6, "attempts": 8 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479394", "goalieName": "Carter Hart", "opponent": "CBJ", "games": 5, "availableGames": 11, "shotsAgainst": 128.0, "goalsAgainst": 11.0, "savePct": 0.9140625, "gaa": 2.6073215696602583, "gsax": 0.11300000000000043, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020692", "date": "20260108", "goalieTeam": "VGK", "opponent": "CBJ", "shotsAgainst": 1.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 504.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 0.415 }, { "gameId": "2025020502", "date": "20251213", "goalieTeam": "VGK", "opponent": "CBJ", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.064 }, { "gameId": "2023020011", "date": "20231012", "goalieTeam": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "shotsAgainst": 33.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.608 }, { "gameId": "2022021287", "date": "20230411", "goalieTeam": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "shotsAgainst": 31.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3884.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.732 }, { "gameId": "2022020510", "date": "20221220", "goalieTeam": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "shotsAgainst": 33.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.294 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 2.5630410682359925, "adjustedSOG": 2.5630410682359925, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 2.5630410682359925, "adjustedSOG": 2.5630410682359925, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.07439956983205627, "goalHistoryGoals": 45.0, "goalHistoryShots": 582.0, "goalExpected": 0.19068915293865182, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.19068915293865182, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.17361057104445887, "goalProbability": 0.17361057104445887, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05740506625462378, "modelSOG": 2.5630410682359925, "historyGames": 164, "seasonGames": { "2024": 81, "2025": 75, "2026": 8 }, "historyGoals": 45.0, "historyShots": 582.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.07731958762886598, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.07439956983205627, "goalieFactor": 1.017200797231895, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 50.86548339034526, "btb": { "id": "8478460", "name": "Zach Werenski", "score": 50.86548339034526, "components": { "Goal model": 64.18604651162791, "SOG model": 88.13953488372093, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 55.58139534883721, "Goalie": 18.38235294117647, "Team H2H": 40.22752704214845, "Goalie H2H": 51.90793458509994 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": 15, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 194 } }, { "id": "8478178", "name": "Darren Raddysh", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "EDM", "position": "D", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 2.4545454545454546, "priorSOG": 2.904109589041096, "currentTOI": 23.84090909090909, "currentFiveTOI": 17.58030303030303, "ppShare": 0.7773096599458321, "rate": 2.766554270712263, "fifty": 2.6713470764549654, "inputs": { "Player": "Darren Raddysh", "Player_ID": "8478178", "Team": "TOR", "Opponent": "EDM", "Position": "D", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 2.5182464563440092, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 2.342923581985618, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 11, "Prior_GP": 73, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.89502714815134, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.678143892380991, "Current_PP_SOG60": 8.362369337979095, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 10.946496732871838, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 17.43847239518472, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 17.58030303030303, "Current_PP_Share": 0.7773096599458321, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.6966240384467411, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2583.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3323.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 6, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.3053872053872055, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 3.2424042118163947, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 3.346619064554665, "Other_State_SOG": 0.32640099626401, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9716922687020597, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 2.904109589041096, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/toronto-maple-leafs/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:40.630244+00:00", "priorGP": 73, "currentTotalSOG": 27.0, "currentPPTOI": 3.9136363636363636, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.45 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.093, "currentIXG": 0.09936363636363636, "priorTOI": 22.69178082191781, "priorPPTOI": 3.5289954337899543, "deploymentChange": 1.14912826899128, "ppTOIChange": 0.3846409298464093, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021109", "date": "20260321", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 26.0 }, { "gameId": "2025020322", "date": "20251120", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 27.633333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020921", "date": "20250225", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 11.05 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 2.6666666666666665, "opponentDefense": { "team": "EDM", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 239.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 26.555555555555557, "mostAllowedRank": 18, "fiveSogAllowed60": 25.09786377362711, "pkSogAllowed60": 57.79388917659244, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 40.111111111111114, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 74.0, "C": 64.0, "L": 57.0, "R": 44.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.111111111111111, "L": 6.333333333333333, "R": 4.888888888888889, "D": 8.222222222222221 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 28.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 24.5, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 26.555555555555557, "oppPosSogAllowed": 8.222222222222221, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8477465", "team": "EDM", "name": "Tristan Jarry", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 3, "savePct": 0.8732394366197183, "gaa": 2.974387221151198, "gsax": -2.739, "goalsAllowed": 9.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 6.261, "shotsAgainst": 71.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0280169850571896, "factor": 1.0280169850571896, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-23T18:50:20.460Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.07550039969886765, "goalHistoryGoals": 28.0, "goalHistoryShots": 347.0, "goalExpected": 0.18588598534530643, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.19109395021906686, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.16963173626412414, "goalProbability": 0.1739450235405664, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.4313287276442257, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 2.4620529968941915, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.89502714815134, "Current_PP_SOG60": 8.362369337979095, "Current_5v5_Min": 17.58030303030303, "Current_PP_Share": 0.7773096599458321, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.3053872053872055, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 3.346619064554665, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.18181818181818182, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9913228889134689, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0841268017286898, "Position_Factor": 1.0175103897192914, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2583.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3323.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.678143892380991, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 10.946496732871838, "Prior_5v5_Min": 17.10753424657534, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.6966240384467411, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0564712492976214, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.34640522875817, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0564712492976214, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0841268017286898, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.89502714815134, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 8.362369337979095, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 3.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021109", "date": "20260321", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 26.0 }, { "gameId": "2025020322", "date": "20251120", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 27.633333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020921", "date": "20250225", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 11.05 }, { "gameId": "2024020453", "date": "20241210", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 17.966666666666665 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 213, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 74, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477465", "goalieName": "Tristan Jarry", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8478178", "goals": 0, "sog": 9, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 6, "recordedAttempts": 18, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020428", "date": "20251204", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 3 }, { "gameId": "2024020686", "date": "20250112", "season": 2024, "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 2 }, { "gameId": "2024020295", "date": "20241119", "season": 2024, "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 6 }, { "gameId": "2023020389", "date": "20231206", "season": 2023, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2 }, { "gameId": "2023020345", "date": "20231130", "season": 2023, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 3 }, { "gameId": "2022020977", "date": "20230302", "season": 2022, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477465", "goalieName": "Tristan Jarry", "opponent": "TOR", "games": 5, "availableGames": 13, "shotsAgainst": 102.0, "goalsAgainst": 16.0, "savePct": 0.8431372549019608, "gaa": 4.100811618966254, "gsax": -2.944, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020499", "date": "20251213", "goalieTeam": "EDM", "opponent": "TOR", "shotsAgainst": 28.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.854 }, { "gameId": "2025020396", "date": "20251129", "goalieTeam": "PIT", "opponent": "TOR", "shotsAgainst": 13.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 2107.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.626 }, { "gameId": "2025020199", "date": "20251103", "goalieTeam": "PIT", "opponent": "TOR", "shotsAgainst": 20.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3452.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.296 }, { "gameId": "2024020433", "date": "20241207", "goalieTeam": "PIT", "opponent": "TOR", "shotsAgainst": 27.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3571.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.846 }, { "gameId": "2023020466", "date": "20231216", "goalieTeam": "PIT", "opponent": "TOR", "shotsAgainst": 14.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 1316.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.434 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 2.4620529968941915, "adjustedSOG": 2.4620529968941915, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 2.5122989764226444, "adjustedSOG": 2.4620529968941915, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.07550039969886765, "goalHistoryGoals": 28.0, "goalHistoryShots": 347.0, "goalExpected": 0.18967957688296574, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.19499382675414983, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.17277584677639515, "goalProbability": 0.1771602623676647, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.4384415591269536 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.057486786653938395, "modelSOG": 2.4620529968941915, "historyGames": 157, "seasonGames": { "2024": 73, "2025": 73, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 28.0, "historyShots": 347.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.08069164265129683, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.07550039969886765, "goalieFactor": 1.0280169850571896, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 53.72668939738727, "btb": { "id": "8478178", "name": "Darren Raddysh", "score": 53.72668939738727, "components": { "Goal model": 62.7906976744186, "SOG model": 86.27906976744185, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 23.25581395348837, "Goalie": 92.20588235294117, "Team H2H": 39.593435285341286, "Goalie H2H": 43.694114506873085 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": 9, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 160 } }, { "id": "8477402", "name": "Pavel Buchnevich", "team": "STL", "opponent": "CAR", "position": "R", "currentGP": 8, "currentSOG": 1.625, "priorSOG": 1.7530864197530864, "currentTOI": 17.96875, "currentFiveTOI": 12.366666666666667, "ppShare": 0.4263157894736842, "rate": 1.4666591366206645, "fifty": 1.4151840260165707, "inputs": { "Player": "Pavel Buchnevich", "Player_ID": "8477402", "Team": "STL", "Opponent": "CAR", "Position": "L", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.616922500620905, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.4525994125777029, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 8, "Prior_GP": 81, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 6.064690026954178, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.666110860045815, "Current_PP_SOG60": 3.4188034188034186, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 7.476973090121004, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 12.617839506172839, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 12.366666666666667, "Current_PP_Share": 0.4263157894736842, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.5523989657043114, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1053.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2470.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 5, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.016414141414142, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 2.328322183495242, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 2.1385765550239237, "Other_State_SOG": 0.19166666666666665, "Environment_Proxy": 0.85, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.7530864197530864, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/st-louis-blues/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:40.646638+00:00", "priorGP": 81, "currentTotalSOG": 13.0, "currentPPTOI": 2.19375, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.62 SOG/game in 8 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 8 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 2.271, "currentIXG": 0.283875, "priorTOI": 17.9380658436214, "priorPPTOI": 2.2786008230452675, "deploymentChange": 0.030684156378601557, "ppTOIChange": -0.08485082304526737, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021033", "date": "20260312", "team": "STL", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 17.383333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020730", "date": "20260113", "team": "STL", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 15.333333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020284", "date": "20241117", "team": "STL", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 17.4 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 1.6666666666666667, "opponentDefense": { "team": "CAR", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 246.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 22.363636363636363, "mostAllowedRank": 31, "fiveSogAllowed60": 21.75191064079953, "pkSogAllowed60": 32.87187039764359, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 33.09090909090909, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 77.0, "R": 66.0, "D": 59.0, "L": 44.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.0, "L": 4.0, "R": 6.0, "D": 5.363636363636363 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 23.0, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 7, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 22.428571428571427, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 22.363636363636363, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.0, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8481611", "team": "CAR", "name": "Pyotr Kochetkov", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 6, "savePct": 0.8991596638655462, "gaa": 1.9842910293509715, "gsax": 2.2720000000000002, "goalsAllowed": 12.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 14.272, "shotsAgainst": 119.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9828959307519136, "factor": 0.9828959307519136, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T22:32:34.088Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.1346188385863692, "goalHistoryGoals": 41.0, "goalHistoryShots": 300.0, "goalExpected": 0.22598658202357313, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.22212129187550358, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.20227119449983055, "goalProbability": 0.19918177430081788, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.3089420199012677, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 8, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.6787143938891134, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 6.064690026954178, "Current_PP_SOG60": 3.4188034188034186, "Current_5v5_Min": 12.366666666666667, "Current_PP_Share": 0.4263157894736842, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.016414141414142, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 2.1385765550239237, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.25, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9235603264096603, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.85, "Position_Factor": 1.0468273008257014, "Input_GP": 8, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1053.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2470.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.666110860045815, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 7.476973090121004, "Prior_5v5_Min": 13.203909465020576, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.5523989657043114, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0601092896174862, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.382352941176471, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0601092896174862, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.85, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 6.064690026954178, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 3.4188034188034186, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021033", "date": "20260312", "team": "STL", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 17.383333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020730", "date": "20260113", "team": "STL", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 15.333333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020284", "date": "20241117", "team": "STL", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 17.4 }, { "gameId": "2024020084", "date": "20241019", "team": "STL", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 17.983333333333334 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 162, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 34, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481611", "goalieName": "Pyotr Kochetkov", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8477402", "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 2, "recordedAttempts": 2, "log": [ { "gameId": "2024020284", "date": "20241117", "season": 2024, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2024020084", "date": "20241019", "season": 2024, "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 1 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481611", "goalieName": "Pyotr Kochetkov", "opponent": "STL", "games": 3, "availableGames": 3, "shotsAgainst": 60.0, "goalsAgainst": 6.0, "savePct": 0.9, "gaa": 2.610587382160986, "gsax": -0.46099999999999985, "log": [ { "gameId": "2024020284", "date": "20241117", "goalieTeam": "CAR", "opponent": "STL", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3598.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.005 }, { "gameId": "2024020084", "date": "20241019", "goalieTeam": "CAR", "opponent": "STL", "shotsAgainst": 19.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3476.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.804 }, { "gameId": "2022020369", "date": "20221201", "goalieTeam": "CAR", "opponent": "STL", "shotsAgainst": 11.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 1200.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 0.73 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.6787143938891134, "adjustedSOG": 1.6787143938891134, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.6787143938891134, "adjustedSOG": 1.6787143938891134, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.1346188385863692, "goalHistoryGoals": 41.0, "goalHistoryShots": 300.0, "goalExpected": 0.22598658202357313, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.22598658202357313, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.20227119449983055, "goalProbability": 0.20227119449983055, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1284753543454768, "modelSOG": 1.6787143938891134, "historyGames": 165, "seasonGames": { "2024": 76, "2025": 81, "2026": 8 }, "historyGoals": 41.0, "historyShots": 300.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.13666666666666666, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.1346188385863692, "goalieFactor": 0.9828959307519136, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 58.60183775776032, "btb": { "id": "8477402", "name": "Pavel Buchnevich", "score": 58.60183775776032, "components": { "Goal model": 73.25581395348837, "SOG model": 63.25581395348837, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 79.53488372093024, "Goalie": 50.14705882352941, "Team H2H": 51.976874300634094, "Goalie H2H": 50.23158869847151 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": 1, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 104 } }, { "id": "8478891", "name": "Mason Appleton", "team": "DET", "opponent": "CGY", "position": "C", "currentGP": 2, "currentSOG": 0.5, "priorSOG": 0.9692307692307692, "currentTOI": 9.841666666666667, "currentFiveTOI": 7.808333333333334, "ppShare": 0.0, "rate": 0.8325608903699901, "fifty": 0.7160917270908425, "inputs": { "Player": "Mason Appleton", "Player_ID": "8478891", "Team": "DET", "Opponent": "CGY", "Position": "C", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 0.7634607746602964, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 0.6587033554447392, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 2, "Prior_GP": 65, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.84204909284952, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.5032027088230855, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 9.032525641025641, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 7.808333333333334, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.0143249953817943, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 784.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 2, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.430208333333333, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.02333631278915427, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.0, "Other_State_SOG": 0.06923076923076923, "Environment_Proxy": 1.096640755468006, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 0.9692307692307692, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:40.664208+00:00", "priorGP": 65, "currentTotalSOG": 1.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.0, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.50 SOG/game in 2 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 2 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.011, "currentIXG": 0.0055, "priorTOI": 13.524102564102565, "priorPPTOI": 0.0758974358974359, "deploymentChange": -3.682435897435898, "ppTOIChange": -0.0758974358974359, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021063", "date": "20260316", "team": "DET", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 10.533333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020791", "date": "20250126", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 13.75 }, { "gameId": "2024020129", "date": "20241026", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 14.25 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 3, "h2hSOG": 1.3333333333333333, "opponentDefense": { "team": "CGY", "games": 8, "sogAllowedTotal": 237.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 29.625, "mostAllowedRank": 6, "fiveSogAllowed60": 29.8086265894977, "pkSogAllowed60": 38.789888106092, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.5, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 59.0, "C": 89.0, "R": 48.0, "L": 41.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 11.125, "L": 5.125, "R": 6.0, "D": 7.375 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 30.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.5, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 29.625, "oppPosSogAllowed": 11.125, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8482445", "team": "CGY", "name": "Devin Cooley", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 3, "savePct": 0.8681318681318682, "gaa": 4.010025062656641, "gsax": -2.561, "goalsAllowed": 12.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 9.439, "shotsAgainst": 91.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0263021756310153, "factor": 1.0263021756310153, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T16:24:22.507Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.10608517460242493, "goalHistoryGoals": 16.0, "goalHistoryShots": 172.0, "goalExpected": 0.056111555650658514, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.057587411642311626, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.054566338459891804, "goalProbability": 0.05596063325174294, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.13942947918511375, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 2, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 0.5289292859341337, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.84204909284952, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 7.808333333333334, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.430208333333333, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.0, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0746225056341803, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9180727421999328, "Position_Factor": 1.0092969209610747, "Input_GP": 2, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 784.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.5032027088230855, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 11.888974358974359, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.0143249953817943, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0794475223145583, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.437908496732026, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0794475223145583, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9180727421999328, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 3.84204909284952, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 0.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021063", "date": "20260316", "team": "DET", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 10.533333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020791", "date": "20250126", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 13.75 }, { "gameId": "2024020129", "date": "20241026", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 14.25 } ], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Reviewed October22 projected lineup and coach reports", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. 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Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482445", "goalieName": "Devin Cooley", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8478891", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482445", "goalieName": "Devin Cooley", "opponent": "DET", "games": 1, "availableGames": 1, "shotsAgainst": 29.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "savePct": 0.8620689655172413, "gaa": 4.1248925809223715, "gsax": -1.0219999999999998, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020477", "date": "20251210", "goalieTeam": "CGY", "opponent": "DET", "shotsAgainst": 29.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3491.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.978 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.5289292859341337, "adjustedSOG": 0.5289292859341337, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.5397237611572793, "adjustedSOG": 0.5289292859341337, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.10608517460242493, "goalHistoryGoals": 16.0, "goalHistoryShots": 172.0, "goalExpected": 0.057256689439447464, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.057256689439447464, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.05564836683890974, "goalProbability": 0.05564836683890974, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12855167491859584, "modelSOG": 0.5289292859341337, "historyGames": 138, "seasonGames": { "2024": 71, "2025": 65, "2026": 2 }, "historyGoals": 16.0, "historyShots": 172.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.09302325581395349, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.10608517460242493, "goalieFactor": 1.0263021756310153, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8484801", "name": "Macklin Celebrini", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "BOS", "position": "C", "currentGP": 8, "currentSOG": 4.625, "priorSOG": 3.5, "currentTOI": 22.766666666666666, "currentFiveTOI": 16.891666666666666, "ppShare": 0.7850393700787401, "rate": 3.6783092380551947, "fifty": 4.014583189247366, "inputs": { "Player": "Macklin Celebrini", "Player_ID": "8484801", "Team": "SJS", "Opponent": "BOS", "Position": "C", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 3.524179516685329, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 3.818873026165947, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 8, "Prior_GP": 82, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 9.768130241736557, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 7.441054520700538, "Current_PP_SOG60": 16.248746238716148, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 13.451658103689864, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 16.75069105691057, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 16.891666666666666, "Current_PP_Share": 0.7850393700787401, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.6927625565235682, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1994.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2540.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 3, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.0425, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 3.8189692739164607, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 3.9585610236220474, "Other_State_SOG": 0.6018292682926831, "Environment_Proxy": 1.0253180054689388, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 3.5, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:40.684110+00:00", "priorGP": 82, "currentTotalSOG": 37.0, "currentPPTOI": 4.154166666666667, "volumeNote": "Observed 4.62 SOG/game in 8 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 8 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 4.523, "currentIXG": 0.565375, "priorTOI": 21.315853658536586, "priorPPTOI": 3.4813008130081298, "deploymentChange": 1.4508130081300799, "ppTOIChange": 0.672865853658537, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2026020105", "date": "20261013", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "home", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 19.85 }, { "gameId": "2025021027", "date": "20260312", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "away", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 10.0, "toi": 21.183333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020351", "date": "20251123", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "home", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 19.533333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2024021117", "date": "20250322", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 8.0, "toi": 19.866666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020740", "date": "20250120", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 8.0, "toi": 19.0 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 5, "h2hSOG": 4.4, "opponentDefense": { "team": "BOS", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 280.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 28.0, "mostAllowedRank": 11, "fiveSogAllowed60": 26.539776154413243, "pkSogAllowed60": 48.89206576125804, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 42.4, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 68.0, "R": 50.0, "L": 68.0, "C": 94.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.4, "L": 6.8, "R": 5.0, "D": 6.8 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 26.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 25.0, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 28.0, "oppPosSogAllowed": 9.4, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8480280", "team": "BOS", "name": "Jeremy Swayman", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 8, "savePct": 0.9279279279279279, "gaa": 1.976189659313137, "gsax": 7.695, "goalsAllowed": 16.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 23.695, "shotsAgainst": 222.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9412127550171275, "factor": 0.9412127550171275, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T14:59:19.712Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.13310151747089452, "goalHistoryGoals": 75.0, "goalHistoryShots": 560.0, "goalExpected": 0.5975515917819157, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.5624231799659268, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.4498430026613035, "goalProbability": 0.43017340285178907, "goalAdjustmentPP": -1.9669599809514438, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 8, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 4.489442368022462, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 9.768130241736557, "Current_PP_SOG60": 16.248746238716148, "Current_5v5_Min": 16.891666666666666, "Current_PP_Share": 0.7850393700787401, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.0425, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 3.9585610236220474, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.75, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0194233133624404, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.013580746919003, "Position_Factor": 0.9960977690937871, "Input_GP": 8, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1994.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2540.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 7.441054520700538, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 13.451658103689864, "Prior_5v5_Min": 16.421747967479675, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.6927625565235682, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9979916897506925, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.437908496732026, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9979916897506925, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.013580746919003, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 9.768130241736557, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 16.248746238716148, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 3.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 5.0 }, { "season": "2026", "label": "2026–27", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 5.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2026020105", "date": "20261013", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "home", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 19.85 }, { "gameId": "2025021027", "date": "20260312", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "away", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 10.0, "toi": 21.183333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020351", "date": "20251123", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "home", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 19.533333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2024021117", "date": "20250322", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 8.0, "toi": 19.866666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020740", "date": "20250120", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 8.0, "toi": 19.0 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Reviewed October22 projected lineup and coach reports", "ppAssignmentSourceDate": "2026-10-13T18:05:17.352Z", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 242, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 94, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480280", "goalieName": "Jeremy Swayman", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8484801", "goals": 2, "sog": 15, "shootingPct": 0.13333333333333333, "gamesWithAttempts": 3, "recordedAttempts": 19, "log": [ { "gameId": "2026020105", "date": "20261013", "season": 2026, "goals": 1, "sog": 5, "attempts": 5 }, { "gameId": "2025021027", "date": "20260312", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 5, "attempts": 8 }, { "gameId": "2025020351", "date": "20251123", "season": 2025, "goals": 1, "sog": 5, "attempts": 6 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480280", "goalieName": "Jeremy Swayman", "opponent": "SJS", "games": 5, "availableGames": 6, "shotsAgainst": 123.0, "goalsAgainst": 9.0, "savePct": 0.926829268292683, "gaa": 2.2632020117351215, "gsax": 2.58, "log": [ { "gameId": "2026020105", "date": "20261013", "goalieTeam": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "shotsAgainst": 38.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.146 }, { "gameId": "2025021027", "date": "20260312", "goalieTeam": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "shotsAgainst": 28.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3406.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.91 }, { "gameId": "2025020351", "date": "20251123", "goalieTeam": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3588.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.577 }, { "gameId": "2023020340", "date": "20231130", "goalieTeam": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "shotsAgainst": 26.0, "goalsAgainst": 0.0, "seconds": 3574.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.886 }, { "gameId": "2022020748", "date": "20230122", "goalieTeam": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "shotsAgainst": 1.0, "goalsAgainst": 0.0, "seconds": 148.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 0.061 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 4.489442368022462, "adjustedSOG": 4.489442368022462, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 4.581063640839247, "adjustedSOG": 4.489442368022462, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.13310151747089452, "goalHistoryGoals": 75.0, "goalHistoryShots": 560.0, "goalExpected": 0.6097465222264447, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.5739012040468642, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.45651138610005954, "goalProbability": 0.4366764935443598, "goalAdjustmentPP": -1.9834892555699757 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12847001530790372, "modelSOG": 4.489442368022462, "historyGames": 160, "seasonGames": { "2024": 70, "2025": 82, "2026": 8 }, "historyGoals": 75.0, "historyShots": 560.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.13392857142857142, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.13310151747089452, "goalieFactor": 0.9412127550171275, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 65.8014932019825, "btb": { "id": "8484801", "name": "Macklin Celebrini", "score": 65.8014932019825, "components": { "Goal model": 98.83720930232558, "SOG model": 99.76744186046511, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 98.37209302325581, "Goalie": 34.26470588235294, "Team H2H": 48.912097476066144, "Goalie H2H": 54.45184736523319 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 5, "goalieH2HShots": 15, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 28 } }, { "id": "8476453", "name": "Nikita Kucherov", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "UTA", "position": "R", "currentGP": 9, "currentSOG": 2.888888888888889, "priorSOG": 3.039473684210526, "currentTOI": 21.33888888888889, "currentFiveTOI": 14.887037037037036, "ppShare": 0.7966621253405994, "rate": 2.572067448499217, "fifty": 2.5614854244843555, "inputs": { "Player": "Nikita Kucherov", "Player_ID": "8476453", "Team": "TBL", "Opponent": "UTA", "Position": "R", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 2.6072158005308905, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 2.1479725067529727, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 9, "Prior_GP": 76, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 7.16507028237343, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 7.85634776495401, "Current_PP_SOG60": 12.31295425395468, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 9.994556341861731, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 14.912768031189083, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 14.887037037037036, "Current_PP_Share": 0.7966621253405994, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.7952280194950545, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2339.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2936.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 5, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.626018518518518, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 3.6833834847682314, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 3.685373744827934, "Other_State_SOG": 0.3656432748538011, "Environment_Proxy": 0.85, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 3.039473684210526, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:40.701077+00:00", "priorGP": 76.0, "currentTotalSOG": 26.0, "currentPPTOI": 4.3314814814814815, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.89 SOG/game in 9 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 9 games. 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excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478872", "goalieName": "Karel Vejmelka", "opponent": "TBL", "games": 5, "availableGames": 6, "shotsAgainst": 128.0, "goalsAgainst": 18.0, "savePct": 0.859375, "gaa": 4.0538004379105415, "gsax": -5.162, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020825", "date": "20260126", "goalieTeam": "UTA", "opponent": "TBL", "shotsAgainst": 29.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.389 }, { "gameId": "2025020194", "date": "20251102", "goalieTeam": "UTA", "opponent": "TBL", "shotsAgainst": 25.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3527.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.366 }, { "gameId": "2024021145", "date": "20250327", "goalieTeam": "UTA", "opponent": "TBL", "shotsAgainst": 12.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 1754.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.834 }, { "gameId": "2024021111", "date": "20250322", "goalieTeam": "UTA", "opponent": "TBL", "shotsAgainst": 27.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.77 }, { "gameId": "2022020582", "date": "20221231", "goalieTeam": "ARI", "opponent": "TBL", "shotsAgainst": 35.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3504.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.479 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 2.5510137299424764, "adjustedSOG": 2.5510137299424764, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 2.60307523463518, "adjustedSOG": 2.5510137299424764, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.1572888807616215, "goalHistoryGoals": 85.0, "goalHistoryShots": 522.0, "goalExpected": 0.4094347901940628, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.4094347901940628, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.3359745422090568, "goalProbability": 0.3359745422090568, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1283368383372858, "modelSOG": 2.5510137299424764, "historyGames": 163, "seasonGames": { "2024": 78, "2025": 76, "2026": 9 }, "historyGoals": 85.0, "historyShots": 522.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.16283524904214558, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.1572888807616215, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 65.39504957365787, "btb": { "id": "8476453", "name": "Nikita Kucherov", "score": 65.39504957365787, "components": { "Goal model": 95.5813953488372, "SOG model": 87.90697674418605, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 89.30232558139535, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 53.021260723610595, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Likely", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": 20, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 30 } }, { "id": "8477499", "name": "Rasmus Ristolainen", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "ANA", "position": "D", "currentGP": 3, "currentSOG": 1.3333333333333333, "priorSOG": 1.3181818181818181, "currentTOI": 18.27777777777778, "currentFiveTOI": 15.572222222222223, "ppShare": 0.01710376282782212, "rate": 1.1490898520827488, "fifty": 1.1162759458421359, "inputs": { "Player": "Rasmus Ristolainen", "Player_ID": "8477499", "Team": "PHI", "Opponent": "ANA", "Position": "D", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.2860935296126765, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.258378958795886, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 3, "Prior_GP": 44, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.853014627185159, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.260025873221216, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 9.812235009085402, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 16.1710101010101, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 15.572222222222223, "Current_PP_Share": 0.01710376282782212, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.2937396070916519, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 15.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 877.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 3, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.042592592592593, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.5047358654801521, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.08624730774103637, "Other_State_SOG": 0.15606060606060607, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9949214190083264, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.3181818181818181, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/philadelphia-flyers/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:40.718114+00:00", "priorGP": 44, "currentTotalSOG": 4.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.08333333333333333, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.33 SOG/game in 3 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 3 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.32299999999999995, "currentIXG": 0.10766666666666665, "priorTOI": 21.38598484848485, "priorPPTOI": 1.2507575757575757, "deploymentChange": -3.1082070707070706, "ppTOIChange": -1.1674242424242425, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021082", "date": "20260318", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 20.75 }, { "gameId": "2025020670", "date": "20260106", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 10.0, "toi": 24.083333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2024020675", "date": "20250111", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 20.083333333333332 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 1.6666666666666667, "opponentDefense": { "team": "ANA", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 239.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 26.555555555555557, "mostAllowedRank": 18, "fiveSogAllowed60": 25.834281008587897, "pkSogAllowed60": 38.93928820655967, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 43.333333333333336, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 54.0, "C": 91.0, "R": 57.0, "L": 37.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.11111111111111, "L": 4.111111111111111, "R": 6.333333333333333, "D": 6.0 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 28.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.2, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 26.555555555555557, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.0, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8480843", "team": "ANA", "name": "Lukas Dostal", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.8813559322033898, "gaa": 3.1634446397188047, "gsax": 2.846, "goalsAllowed": 21.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 23.846, "shotsAgainst": 177.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9815060369171769, "factor": 0.9815060369171769, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T16:38:16.530Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.04494284985153668, "goalHistoryGoals": 6.0, "goalHistoryShots": 162.0, "goalExpected": 0.05602213078047423, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.05498605956199905, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.05448178939710259, "goalProbability": 0.05350165753702386, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.09801318600787326, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 3, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.2465193232190799, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.853014627185159, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 15.572222222222223, "Current_PP_Share": 0.01710376282782212, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.042592592592593, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.08624730774103637, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.3333333333333333, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0050173142237073, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9117211340641708, "Position_Factor": 0.9807721620568941, "Input_GP": 3, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 15.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 877.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.260025873221216, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 9.812235009085402, "Prior_5v5_Min": 17.568181818181817, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.2937396070916519, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9131859898857464, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.34640522875817, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9131859898857464, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9117211340641708, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 3.853014627185159, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021082", "date": "20260318", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 20.75 }, { "gameId": "2025020670", "date": "20260106", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 10.0, "toi": 24.083333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2024020675", "date": "20250111", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 20.083333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2024020568", "date": "20241228", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 22.566666666666666 } ], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff latest reported chart; October 21 final lineup pending", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 72, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 12, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480843", "goalieName": "Lukas Dostal", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8477499", "goals": 0, "sog": 5, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 3, "recordedAttempts": 9, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021082", "date": "20260318", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2025020670", "date": "20260106", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 4, "attempts": 6 }, { "gameId": "2024020568", "date": "20241228", "season": 2024, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480843", "goalieName": "Lukas Dostal", "opponent": "PHI", "games": 5, "availableGames": 5, "shotsAgainst": 155.0, "goalsAgainst": 18.0, "savePct": 0.8838709677419355, "gaa": 3.646595385481148, "gsax": -2.507999999999999, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021082", "date": "20260318", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 28.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3704.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.611 }, { "gameId": "2025020670", "date": "20260106", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 38.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3560.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.171 }, { "gameId": "2024020568", "date": "20241228", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3472.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.781 }, { "gameId": "2023020208", "date": "20231110", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 35.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3450.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.281 }, { "gameId": "2023020117", "date": "20231028", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3584.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.648 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.2465193232190799, "adjustedSOG": 1.2465193232190799, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.2465193232190799, "adjustedSOG": 1.2465193232190799, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.04494284985153668, "goalHistoryGoals": 6.0, "goalHistoryShots": 162.0, "goalExpected": 0.05602213078047423, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.05602213078047423, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.05448178939710259, "goalProbability": 0.05448178939710259, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.057750266611026106, "modelSOG": 1.2465193232190799, "historyGames": 110, "seasonGames": { "2024": 63, "2025": 44, "2026": 3 }, "historyGoals": 6.0, "historyShots": 162.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.037037037037037035, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.04494284985153668, "goalieFactor": 0.9815060369171769, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8476448", "name": "William Karlsson", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "CBJ", "position": "C", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 1.8181818181818181, "priorSOG": 2.142857142857143, "currentTOI": 17.26212121212121, "currentFiveTOI": 13.875757575757575, "ppShare": 0.24933545986177566, "rate": 2.2771901737870692, "fifty": 2.1604321617357067, "inputs": { "Player": "William Karlsson", "Player_ID": "8476448", "Team": "VGK", "Opponent": "CBJ", "Position": "C", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 2.526643544745463, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 2.326478410119303, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 11, "Prior_GP": 14, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 6.28958287835772, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 8.531648069517132, "Current_PP_SOG60": 7.67590618336887, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 9.079445145018916, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 13.329816017316015, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 13.875757575757575, "Current_PP_Share": 0.24933545986177566, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.20674047847960886, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 938.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3762.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 6, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.392708333333333, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 1.2756827188747597, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 1.3445934121920964, "Other_State_SOG": 0.21103896103896103, "Environment_Proxy": 1.0241190783267258, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 2.142857142857143, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/vegas-golden-knights/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:40.736886+00:00", "priorGP": 14, "currentTotalSOG": 20.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.4212121212121211, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.82 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 3.18, "currentIXG": 0.2890909090909091, "priorTOI": 15.146428571428572, "priorPPTOI": 0.944047619047619, "deploymentChange": 2.1156926406926395, "ppTOIChange": 0.4771645021645021, "h2hLog": [], "h2hGames": 0, "h2hAvailableGames": 0, "h2hSOG": null, "opponentDefense": { "team": "CBJ", "games": 8, "sogAllowedTotal": 222.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.75, "mostAllowedRank": 13, "fiveSogAllowed60": 26.021128266541208, "pkSogAllowed60": 45.718967636214664, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 43.125, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 66.0, "D": 61.0, "R": 49.0, "L": 46.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 8.25, "L": 5.75, "R": 6.125, "D": 7.625 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 28.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.666666666666668, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.75, "oppPosSogAllowed": 8.25, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8475660", "team": "CBJ", "name": "Cam Talbot", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 4, "savePct": 0.8674698795180723, "gaa": 3.3959351685104195, "gsax": -0.8840000000000003, "goalsAllowed": 11.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 10.116, "shotsAgainst": 83.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0106708091071457, "factor": 1.0106708091071457, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T15:32:32.146Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.10355284585361149, "goalHistoryGoals": 15.0, "goalHistoryShots": 169.0, "goalExpected": 0.17495933368318797, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.17682629133443467, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.1605088409115008, "goalProbability": 0.16207467322799007, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.15658323164892685, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.6895656728789565, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 6.28958287835772, "Current_PP_SOG60": 7.67590618336887, "Current_5v5_Min": 13.875757575757575, "Current_PP_Share": 0.24933545986177566, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.392708333333333, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.3445934121920964, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.18181818181818182, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0080456056426796, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9827600403123256, "Position_Factor": 0.9842134378145458, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 938.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3762.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 8.531648069517132, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 9.079445145018916, "Prior_5v5_Min": 12.05595238095238, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.20674047847960886, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9440597106802093, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.437908496732026, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9440597106802093, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9827600403123256, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 6.28958287835772, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 7.67590618336887, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 31, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475660", "goalieName": "Cam Talbot", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8476448", "goals": 3, "sog": 17, "shootingPct": 0.17647058823529413, "gamesWithAttempts": 8, "recordedAttempts": 19, "log": [ { "gameId": "2024021115", "date": "20250322", "season": 2024, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2023020544", "date": "20231228", "season": 2023, "goals": 1, "sog": 4, "attempts": 4 }, { "gameId": "2023020192", "date": "20231108", "season": 2023, "goals": 1, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2023020125", "date": "20231028", "season": 2023, "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 3 }, { "gameId": "2022020315", "date": "20221123", "season": 2022, "goals": 1, "sog": 3, "attempts": 3 }, { "gameId": "2022020163", "date": "20221103", "season": 2022, "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2021021001", "date": "20220321", "season": 2021, "goals": 0, "sog": 4, "attempts": 5 }, { "gameId": "2021020435", "date": "20211212", "season": 2021, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475660", "goalieName": "Cam Talbot", "opponent": "VGK", "games": 5, "availableGames": 22, "shotsAgainst": 160.0, "goalsAgainst": 16.0, "savePct": 0.9, "gaa": 3.176704169424222, "gsax": 0.6329999999999996, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020970", "date": "20260304", "goalieTeam": "DET", "opponent": "VGK", "shotsAgainst": 25.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3728.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.397 }, { "gameId": "2024021115", "date": "20250322", "goalieTeam": "DET", "opponent": "VGK", "shotsAgainst": 35.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3491.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.784 }, { "gameId": "2023020544", "date": "20231228", "goalieTeam": "LAK", "opponent": "VGK", "shotsAgainst": 32.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3478.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.46 }, { "gameId": "2023020192", "date": "20231108", "goalieTeam": "LAK", "opponent": "VGK", "shotsAgainst": 38.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.55 }, { "gameId": "2023020125", "date": "20231028", "goalieTeam": "LAK", "opponent": "VGK", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3835.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.442 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.6895656728789565, "adjustedSOG": 1.6895656728789565, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.724046604978527, "adjustedSOG": 1.6895656728789565, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.10355284585361149, "goalHistoryGoals": 15.0, "goalHistoryShots": 169.0, "goalExpected": 0.17852993232978362, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.18043499115758638, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.1635009818618141, "goalProbability": 0.16509304473255407, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.15920628707399576 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12855715534621492, "modelSOG": 1.6895656728789565, "historyGames": 78, "seasonGames": { "2024": 53, "2025": 14, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 15.0, "historyShots": 169.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.08875739644970414, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.10355284585361149, "goalieFactor": 1.0106708091071457, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 53.24486935776861, "btb": { "id": "8476448", "name": "William Karlsson", "score": 53.24486935776861, "components": { "Goal model": 59.06976744186046, "SOG model": 64.18604651162791, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 83.13953488372093, "Goalie": 13.088235294117647, "Team H2H": 50.0, "Goalie H2H": 60.98836526031261 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Team H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 0, "goalieH2HShots": 17, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 169 } }, { "id": "8484786", "name": "Cole Beaudoin", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "OTT", "position": "C", "currentGP": 4, "currentSOG": 0.25, "priorSOG": null, "currentTOI": 8.775, "currentFiveTOI": 8.425, "ppShare": 0.011648745519713262, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-york-rangers/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:40.739029+00:00", "priorGP": null, "currentTotalSOG": 1.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.05416666666666667, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.25 SOG/game in 4 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 4 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.138, "currentIXG": 0.0345, "priorTOI": null, "priorPPTOI": null, "deploymentChange": null, "ppTOIChange": null, "h2hLog": [], "h2hGames": 0, "h2hAvailableGames": 0, "h2hSOG": null, "opponentDefense": { "team": "OTT", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 255.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 25.5, "mostAllowedRank": 25, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.477120373069077, "pkSogAllowed60": 46.82395644283122, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 38.7, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 67.0, "C": 98.0, "R": 48.0, "L": 42.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.8, "L": 4.2, "R": 4.8, "D": 6.7 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 24.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 22.6, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 25.5, "oppPosSogAllowed": 9.8, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8477992", "team": "OTT", "name": "Jonas Johansson", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 0, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "goalsAllowed": null, "xGoalsAgainst": null, "shotsAgainst": null, "scenarioFactor": 1, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; no matching goalie statistics in this snapshot, so the goalie factor remains neutral.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T15:15:50.280Z", "idResolution": "Exact goalie name mapped to one unique MoneyPuck player ID" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.12722612649271983, "goalHistoryGoals": 0.0, "goalHistoryShots": 1.0, "goalExpected": 0.03176833735321141, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.03176833735321141, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.03126902513185563, "goalProbability": 0.03126902513185563, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 4, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 0.24969979224376737, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 1.7804154302670623, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 8.425, "Current_PP_Share": 0.011648745519713262, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.145909090909091, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.059943385467579026, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9604171757553249, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9920036605974645, "Position_Factor": 1.0136284014991037, "Input_GP": 4, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 13.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1116.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": null, "Prior_PP_SOG60": null, "Prior_5v5_Min": null, "Prior_PP_Share": null, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0191828254847646, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.437908496732026, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0191828254847646, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9920036605974645, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 1.7804154302670623, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 1, "playerPriorWeight": 0, "currentSeasonOnly": true }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 1, "playerPriorWeight": 0, "currentSeasonOnly": true }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477992", "goalieName": "Jonas Johansson", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8484786", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477992", "goalieName": "Jonas Johansson", "opponent": "NYR", "games": 4, "availableGames": 4, "shotsAgainst": 43.0, "goalsAgainst": 6.0, "savePct": 0.8604651162790697, "gaa": 2.615328732292045, "gsax": -1.567, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020391", "date": "20251129", "goalieTeam": "TBL", "opponent": "NYR", "shotsAgainst": 13.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.688 }, { "gameId": "2025020265", "date": "20251112", "goalieTeam": "TBL", "opponent": "NYR", "shotsAgainst": 7.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 993.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 0.748 }, { "gameId": "2024021310", "date": "20250417", "goalieTeam": "TBL", "opponent": "NYR", "shotsAgainst": 22.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3573.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.983 }, { "gameId": "2021020399", "date": "20211208", "goalieTeam": "COL", "opponent": "NYR", "shotsAgainst": 1.0, "goalsAgainst": 0.0, "seconds": 93.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 0.014 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.24969979224376737, "adjustedSOG": 0.24969979224376737, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.2547957063711912, "adjustedSOG": 0.24969979224376737, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.12722612649271983, "goalHistoryGoals": 0.0, "goalHistoryShots": 1.0, "goalExpected": 0.032416670768583074, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.032416670768583074, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.03189688224100365, "goalProbability": 0.03189688224100365, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12849838775764702, "modelSOG": 0.24969979224376737, "historyGames": 4, "seasonGames": { "2026": 4 }, "historyGoals": 0.0, "historyShots": 1.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.0, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.12722612649271983, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8480797", "name": "Joel Farabee", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "DET", "position": "R", "currentGP": 8, "currentSOG": 2.5, "priorSOG": 1.7317073170731707, "currentTOI": 18.422916666666666, "currentFiveTOI": 12.870833333333334, "ppShare": 0.7064917127071824, "rate": 1.9128624922064235, "fifty": 2.0787362644403333, "inputs": { "Player": "Joel Farabee", "Player_ID": "8480797", "Team": "CGY", "Opponent": "DET", "Position": "L", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.8999214070696242, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 2.231409527586459, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 8, "Prior_GP": 82, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 8.15797992877954, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.305697252781021, "Current_PP_SOG60": 7.038123167155425, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 8.180268888468094, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 12.978119918699187, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 12.870833333333334, "Current_PP_Share": 0.7064917127071824, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.285012682821523, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1023.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1448.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 5, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.265740740740741, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 2.474334401145388, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 3.0137104818907305, "Other_State_SOG": 0.225609756097561, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9911254066849144, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.7317073170731707, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:40.758570+00:00", "priorGP": 82, "currentTotalSOG": 20.0, "currentPPTOI": 2.13125, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.50 SOG/game in 8 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 8 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 2.001, "currentIXG": 0.250125, "priorTOI": 16.91727642276423, "priorPPTOI": 1.0733739837398373, "deploymentChange": 1.5056402439024374, "ppTOIChange": 1.0578760162601628, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021063", "date": "20260316", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "DET", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 13.733333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020477", "date": "20251210", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "DET", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 14.816666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020834", "date": "20250201", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "DET", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 18.016666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020751", "date": "20250121", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "DET", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 14.766666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020507", "date": "20241218", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "DET", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 13.916666666666666 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 6, "h2hSOG": 1.8, "opponentDefense": { "team": "DET", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 243.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.0, "mostAllowedRank": 17, "fiveSogAllowed60": 24.49072666463971, "pkSogAllowed60": 47.14573539288113, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 41.22222222222222, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 39.0, "C": 96.0, "D": 73.0, "L": 35.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.666666666666666, "L": 3.888888888888889, "R": 4.333333333333333, "D": 8.11111111111111 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 29.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 2, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 28.5, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.0, "oppPosSogAllowed": 4.333333333333333, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8476434", "team": "DET", "name": "John Gibson", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 6, "savePct": 0.8734177215189873, "gaa": 3.5755077717634207, "gsax": -1.6310000000000002, "goalsAllowed": 20.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 18.369, "shotsAgainst": 158.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0182492009293351, "factor": 1.0182492009293351, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T17:52:44.365Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.10619360658374866, "goalHistoryGoals": 31.0, "goalHistoryShots": 313.0, "goalExpected": 0.25916082583155853, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.2638903038151711, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.2283010960547474, "goalProbability": 0.23194221195516504, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.36411159004176297, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 8, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 2.440456013961383, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 8.15797992877954, "Current_PP_SOG60": 7.038123167155425, "Current_5v5_Min": 12.870833333333334, "Current_PP_Share": 0.7064917127071824, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.265740740740741, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 3.0137104818907305, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.5, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9801217943191682, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9957661672519493, "Position_Factor": 0.9777506151535487, "Input_GP": 8, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1023.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1448.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.305697252781021, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 8.180268888468094, "Prior_5v5_Min": 13.228455284552846, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.285012682821523, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.907679033649698, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.382352941176471, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.907679033649698, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9957661672519493, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 8.15797992877954, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 7.038123167155425, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 4, "sogPerGame": 1.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 3.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021063", "date": "20260316", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "DET", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 13.733333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020477", "date": "20251210", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "DET", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 14.816666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020834", "date": "20250201", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "DET", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 18.016666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020751", "date": "20250121", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "DET", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 14.766666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020507", "date": "20241218", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "DET", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 13.916666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020462", "date": "20241212", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "DET", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 16.916666666666668 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Reviewed October22 projected lineup and coach reports", "ppAssignmentSourceDate": "2026-10-12T17:12:03.968Z", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 161, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 16, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476434", "goalieName": "John Gibson", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8480797", "goals": 1, "sog": 11, "shootingPct": 0.09090909090909091, "gamesWithAttempts": 5, "recordedAttempts": 15, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021063", "date": "20260316", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 4, "attempts": 4 }, { "gameId": "2025020477", "date": "20251210", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 3 }, { "gameId": "2024021203", "date": "20250403", "season": 2024, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 3 }, { "gameId": "2022020597", "date": "20230102", "season": 2022, "goals": 1, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2021020594", "date": "20220104", "season": 2021, "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 4 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476434", "goalieName": "John Gibson", "opponent": "CGY", "games": 5, "availableGames": 25, "shotsAgainst": 152.0, "goalsAgainst": 14.0, "savePct": 0.9078947368421053, "gaa": 2.9964328180737216, "gsax": 0.16800000000000015, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021063", "date": "20260316", "goalieTeam": "DET", "opponent": "CGY", "shotsAgainst": 27.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3589.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.703 }, { "gameId": "2025020477", "date": "20251210", "goalieTeam": "DET", "opponent": "CGY", "shotsAgainst": 37.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.965 }, { "gameId": "2024021203", "date": "20250403", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "CGY", "shotsAgainst": 26.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 2381.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.555 }, { "gameId": "2024020818", "date": "20250130", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "CGY", "shotsAgainst": 29.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3525.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.091 }, { "gameId": "2024020648", "date": "20250107", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "CGY", "shotsAgainst": 33.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3725.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.854 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 2.440456013961383, "adjustedSOG": 2.440456013961383, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 2.440456013961383, "adjustedSOG": 2.440456013961383, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.10619360658374866, "goalHistoryGoals": 31.0, "goalHistoryShots": 313.0, "goalExpected": 0.25916082583155853, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.25916082583155853, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.2283010960547474, "goalProbability": 0.2283010960547474, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12857959519088197, "modelSOG": 2.440456013961383, "historyGames": 171, "seasonGames": { "2024": 81, "2025": 82, "2026": 8 }, "historyGoals": 31.0, "historyShots": 313.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.09904153354632587, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.10619360658374866, "goalieFactor": 1.0182492009293351, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 55.8232836916659, "btb": { "id": "8480797", "name": "Joel Farabee", "score": 55.8232836916659, "components": { "Goal model": 78.6046511627907, "SOG model": 85.5813953488372, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 74.53488372093024, "Goalie": 2.5, "Team H2H": 53.280026109660575, "Goalie H2H": 51.2779140312379 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 6, "goalieH2HShots": 11, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 137 } }, { "id": "8481596", "name": "Shane Pinto", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "NYR", "position": "C", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 1.6, "priorSOG": 2.1805555555555554, "currentTOI": 19.538333333333334, "currentFiveTOI": 12.72, "ppShare": 0.3518388381353947, "rate": 2.0273538983003667, "fifty": 1.8960401472055093, "inputs": { "Player": "Shane Pinto", "Player_ID": "8481596", "Team": "OTT", "Opponent": "NYR", "Position": "C", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 2.170936029825645, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 2.116415150776109, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 10, "Prior_GP": 72, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.716981132075472, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.536346976175931, "Current_PP_SOG60": 14.380825565912117, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 12.819836454761276, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 12.996500000000001, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 12.72, "Current_PP_Share": 0.3518388381353947, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.35522636250362233, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1502.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 4269.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 5, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 6.001439393939394, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 2.117638470161047, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 2.1115394635036235, "Other_State_SOG": 0.275, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9482920490252438, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 2.1805555555555554, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/ottawa-senators/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:40.775997+00:00", "priorGP": 72, "currentTotalSOG": 16.0, "currentPPTOI": 2.5033333333333334, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.60 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 2.994, "currentIXG": 0.2994, "priorTOI": 18.711805555555557, "priorPPTOI": 1.7550925925925924, "deploymentChange": 0.8265277777777769, "ppTOIChange": 0.748240740740741, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021119", "date": "20260323", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "NYR", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 16.65 }, { "gameId": "2025020737", "date": "20260114", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "NYR", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 17.533333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2025020427", "date": "20251204", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "NYR", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 5.116666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024021003", "date": "20250308", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "NYR", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 17.483333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020750", "date": "20250121", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "NYR", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 19.583333333333332 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 5, "h2hSOG": 2.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "NYR", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 283.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 25.727272727272727, "mostAllowedRank": 23, "fiveSogAllowed60": 24.897512126427788, "pkSogAllowed60": 40.17358958462492, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 39.81818181818182, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 106.0, "D": 82.0, "R": 57.0, "L": 38.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.636363636363637, "L": 3.4545454545454546, "R": 5.181818181818182, "D": 7.454545454545454 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 27.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.4, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 25.727272727272727, "oppPosSogAllowed": 9.636363636363637, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8482193", "team": "NYR", "name": "Dylan Garand", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.9285714285714286, "gaa": 1.846928781306842, "gsax": 4.030999999999999, "goalsAllowed": 11.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 15.030999999999999, "shotsAgainst": 154.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9674872583533348, "factor": 0.9674872583533348, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T15:37:42.216Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.14710767458268953, "goalHistoryGoals": 46.0, "goalHistoryShots": 300.0, "goalExpected": 0.21720644848423803, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.21014447134068032, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.19523619011480897, "goalProbability": 0.18953285176372558, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.5703338351083387, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.4765133709060558, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.716981132075472, "Current_PP_SOG60": 14.380825565912117, "Current_5v5_Min": 12.72, "Current_PP_Share": 0.3518388381353947, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 6.001439393939394, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 2.1115394635036235, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9864268368728425, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9197863814450764, "Position_Factor": 1.0105908601706983, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1502.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 4269.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.536346976175931, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 12.819836454761276, "Prior_5v5_Min": 13.641666666666667, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.35522636250362233, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.011014378050389, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.437908496732026, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.011014378050389, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9197863814450764, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 4.716981132075472, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 14.380825565912117, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 2.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021119", "date": "20260323", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "NYR", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 16.65 }, { "gameId": "2025020737", "date": "20260114", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "NYR", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 17.533333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2025020427", "date": "20251204", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "NYR", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 5.116666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024021003", "date": "20250308", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "NYR", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 17.483333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020750", "date": "20250121", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "NYR", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 19.583333333333332 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "lineupReviewedAt": "2026-10-22T12:25:32.333917+00:00", "lineupReviewNote": "Reported forward, defense and PP chart reviewed October22; matches existing assignments. Final dressing unconfirmed. Dated statistical inputs now include October21.", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 175, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 43, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482193", "goalieName": "Dylan Garand", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8481596", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482193", "goalieName": "Dylan Garand", "opponent": "OTT", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "No appearance found in the supplied historical files; this does not establish that the goalie has never faced the team." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.4765133709060558, "adjustedSOG": 1.4765133709060558, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.4765133709060558, "adjustedSOG": 1.4765133709060558, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.14710767458268953, "goalHistoryGoals": 46.0, "goalHistoryShots": 300.0, "goalExpected": 0.21720644848423803, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.21014447134068032, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.19523619011480897, "goalProbability": 0.18953285176372558, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.5703338351083387 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12843069833075818, "modelSOG": 1.4765133709060558, "historyGames": 152, "seasonGames": { "2024": 70, "2025": 72, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 46.0, "historyShots": 300.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.15333333333333332, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.14710767458268953, "goalieFactor": 0.9674872583533348, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 57.599242605536965, "btb": { "id": "8481596", "name": "Shane Pinto", "score": 57.599242605536965, "components": { "Goal model": 71.62790697674419, "SOG model": 56.04651162790697, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 83.95348837209302, "Goalie": 39.55882352941177, "Team H2H": 54.13402959094865, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 5, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 116 } }, { "id": "8482109", "name": "Alexis Lafrenière", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "OTT", "position": "R", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 2.0, "priorSOG": 2, "currentTOI": 19.016666666666666, "currentFiveTOI": 14.584848484848486, "ppShare": 0.7515842839036755, "rate": 2.0423173680515494, "fifty": 1.920048945849679, "inputs": { "Player": "Alexis Lafrenire", "Player_ID": "8482109", "Team": "NYR", "Opponent": "OTT", "Position": "L", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.8819155487457357, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.764953886592321, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 11, "Prior_GP": 82, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.861832536879286, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.254027851719017, "Current_PP_SOG60": 7.588532883642496, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 9.588068181818182, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 14.561711012564672, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 14.584848484848486, "Current_PP_Share": 0.7515842839036755, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.6248266527619067, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2372.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3156.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 7, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.145909090909091, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 3.6718994251939643, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 3.8675843991243233, "Other_State_SOG": 0.13514412416851443, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9343896732646498, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 2, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-york-rangers/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:40.793809+00:00", "priorGP": 82, "currentTotalSOG": 22.0, "currentPPTOI": 3.5939393939393938, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.00 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 4.5040000000000004, "currentIXG": 0.4094545454545455, "priorTOI": 17.598373983739837, "priorPPTOI": 2.2894308943089428, "deploymentChange": 1.418292682926829, "ppTOIChange": 1.304508499630451, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021119", "date": "20260323", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 17.966666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2025020737", "date": "20260114", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 15.183333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020427", "date": "20251204", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 16.316666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024021003", "date": "20250308", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 16.033333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2024020750", "date": "20250121", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 15.983333333333333 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 6, "h2hSOG": 1.6, "opponentDefense": { "team": "OTT", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 255.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 25.5, "mostAllowedRank": 25, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.477120373069077, "pkSogAllowed60": 46.82395644283122, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 38.7, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 67.0, "C": 98.0, "R": 48.0, "L": 42.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.8, "L": 4.2, "R": 4.8, "D": 6.7 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 24.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 22.6, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 25.5, "oppPosSogAllowed": 4.8, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8477992", "team": "OTT", "name": "Jonas Johansson", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 0, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "goalsAllowed": null, "xGoalsAgainst": null, "shotsAgainst": null, "scenarioFactor": 1, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; no matching goalie statistics in this snapshot, so the goalie factor remains neutral.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T15:15:50.280Z", "idResolution": "Exact goalie name mapped to one unique MoneyPuck player ID" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.13860081546076888, "goalHistoryGoals": 48.0, "goalHistoryShots": 339.0, "goalExpected": 0.2671431281583807, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.2671431281583807, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.23443651006897792, "goalProbability": 0.23443651006897792, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.9274282569715175, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.861832536879286, "Current_PP_SOG60": 7.588532883642496, "Current_5v5_Min": 14.584848484848486, "Current_PP_Share": 0.7515842839036755, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.145909090909091, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 3.8675843991243233, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.36363636363636365, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9604171757553249, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9920036605974645, "Position_Factor": 0.9940613950498232, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2372.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3156.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.254027851719017, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 9.588068181818182, "Prior_5v5_Min": 14.507723577235774, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.6248266527619067, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9459016393442623, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.382352941176471, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9459016393442623, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9920036605974645, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 4.861832536879286, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 7.588532883642496, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 1.3333333333333333 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 1.6666666666666667 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021119", "date": "20260323", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 17.966666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2025020737", "date": "20260114", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 15.183333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020427", "date": "20251204", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 16.316666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024021003", "date": "20250308", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 16.033333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2024020750", "date": "20250121", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 15.983333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020170", "date": "20241101", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 16.733333333333334 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 201, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 48, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477992", "goalieName": "Jonas Johansson", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8482109", "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 3, "recordedAttempts": 4, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020391", "date": "20251129", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2025020265", "date": "20251112", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2 }, { "gameId": "2024021310", "date": "20250417", "season": 2024, "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 1 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477992", "goalieName": "Jonas Johansson", "opponent": "NYR", "games": 4, "availableGames": 4, "shotsAgainst": 43.0, "goalsAgainst": 6.0, "savePct": 0.8604651162790697, "gaa": 2.615328732292045, "gsax": -1.567, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020391", "date": "20251129", "goalieTeam": "TBL", "opponent": "NYR", "shotsAgainst": 13.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.688 }, { "gameId": "2025020265", "date": "20251112", "goalieTeam": "TBL", "opponent": "NYR", "shotsAgainst": 7.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 993.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 0.748 }, { "gameId": "2024021310", "date": "20250417", "goalieTeam": "TBL", "opponent": "NYR", "shotsAgainst": 22.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3573.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.983 }, { "gameId": "2021020399", "date": "20211208", "goalieTeam": "COL", "opponent": "NYR", "shotsAgainst": 1.0, "goalsAgainst": 0.0, "seconds": 93.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 0.014 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.9274282569715175, "adjustedSOG": 1.9274282569715175, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.9667635275219566, "adjustedSOG": 1.9274282569715175, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.13860081546076888, "goalHistoryGoals": 48.0, "goalHistoryShots": 339.0, "goalExpected": 0.27259502873304153, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.27259502873304153, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.23859892924189524, "goalProbability": 0.23859892924189524, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12845757987277537, "modelSOG": 1.9274282569715175, "historyGames": 175, "seasonGames": { "2024": 82, "2025": 82, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 48.0, "historyShots": 339.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.1415929203539823, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.13860081546076888, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 63.019464600157875, "btb": { "id": "8482109", "name": "Alexis Lafrenière", "score": 63.019464600157875, "components": { "Goal model": 79.76744186046511, "SOG model": 73.72093023255815, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 94.18604651162791, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 59.742167101827675, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 6, "goalieH2HShots": 2, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 54 } }, { "id": "8482784", "name": "Zachary Dean", "team": "STL", "opponent": "CAR", "position": "R", "currentGP": 3, "currentSOG": 0.0, "priorSOG": null, "currentTOI": 9.972222222222223, "currentFiveTOI": 9.944444444444445, "ppShare": 0.009433962264150943, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/st-louis-blues/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:40.795522+00:00", "priorGP": null, "currentTotalSOG": 0.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.027777777777777776, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.00 SOG/game in 3 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 3 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.0, "currentIXG": 0.0, "priorTOI": null, "priorPPTOI": null, "deploymentChange": null, "ppTOIChange": null, "h2hLog": [], "h2hGames": 0, "h2hAvailableGames": 0, "h2hSOG": null, "opponentDefense": { "team": "CAR", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 246.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 22.363636363636363, "mostAllowedRank": 31, "fiveSogAllowed60": 21.75191064079953, "pkSogAllowed60": 32.87187039764359, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 33.09090909090909, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 77.0, "R": 66.0, "D": 59.0, "L": 44.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.0, "L": 4.0, "R": 6.0, "D": 5.363636363636363 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 23.0, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 7, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 22.428571428571427, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 22.363636363636363, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.0, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8481611", "team": "CAR", "name": "Pyotr Kochetkov", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 6, "savePct": 0.8991596638655462, "gaa": 1.9842910293509715, "gsax": 2.2720000000000002, "goalsAllowed": 12.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 14.272, "shotsAgainst": 119.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9828959307519136, "factor": 0.9828959307519136, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T22:32:34.088Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.12849724317920672, "goalHistoryGoals": 0.0, "goalHistoryShots": 0.0, "goalExpected": 0.0, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.0, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.0, "goalProbability": 0.0, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 3, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 0.0, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 9.944444444444445, "Current_PP_Share": 0.009433962264150943, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.016414141414142, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.04732466171145416, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9235603264096603, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.85, "Position_Factor": 1.0468273008257014, "Input_GP": 3, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 5.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 530.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": null, "Prior_PP_SOG60": null, "Prior_5v5_Min": null, "Prior_PP_Share": null, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0601092896174862, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.382352941176471, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0601092896174862, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.85, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 0, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 1, "playerPriorWeight": 0, "currentSeasonOnly": true }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 1, "playerPriorWeight": 0, "currentSeasonOnly": true }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481611", "goalieName": "Pyotr Kochetkov", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8482784", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481611", "goalieName": "Pyotr Kochetkov", "opponent": "STL", "games": 3, "availableGames": 3, "shotsAgainst": 60.0, "goalsAgainst": 6.0, "savePct": 0.9, "gaa": 2.610587382160986, "gsax": -0.46099999999999985, "log": [ { "gameId": "2024020284", "date": "20241117", "goalieTeam": "CAR", "opponent": "STL", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3598.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.005 }, { "gameId": "2024020084", "date": "20241019", "goalieTeam": "CAR", "opponent": "STL", "shotsAgainst": 19.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3476.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.804 }, { "gameId": "2022020369", "date": "20221201", "goalieTeam": "CAR", "opponent": "STL", "shotsAgainst": 11.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 1200.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 0.73 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.0, "adjustedSOG": 0.0, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.0, "adjustedSOG": 0.0, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.12849724317920672, "goalHistoryGoals": 0.0, "goalHistoryShots": 0.0, "goalExpected": 0.0, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.0, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.0, "goalProbability": 0.0, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12849724317920672, "modelSOG": 0.0, "historyGames": 3, "seasonGames": { "2026": 3 }, "historyGoals": 0.0, "historyShots": 0.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": null, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.12849724317920672, "goalieFactor": 0.9828959307519136, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8475692", "name": "Mats Zuccarello", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "NJD", "position": "R", "currentGP": 4, "currentSOG": 1.0, "priorSOG": 2.0677966101694913, "currentTOI": 17.616666666666667, "currentFiveTOI": 12.883333333333333, "ppShare": 0.6927609427609428, "rate": 1.7442151682434053, "fifty": 1.3563345451170148, "inputs": { "Player": "Mats Zuccarello", "Player_ID": "8475692", "Team": "LAK", "Opponent": "NJD", "Position": "R", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.5355852307543933, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.0505581536618425, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 4, "Prior_GP": 59, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.3285899094437257, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.576640074355201, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 8.261091279959205, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 13.394943502824859, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 12.883333333333333, "Current_PP_Share": 0.6927609427609428, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.6299451351250764, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 823.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1188.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 3, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.575661375661376, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 3.0836123289238846, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 3.1698394883580074, "Other_State_SOG": 0.24830508474576274, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9357862710703578, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 2.0677966101694913, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/los-angeles-kings/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:40.812416+00:00", "priorGP": 59, "currentTotalSOG": 4.0, "currentPPTOI": 3.4291666666666667, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.00 SOG/game in 4 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 4 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.385, "currentIXG": 0.09625, "priorTOI": 18.644350282485874, "priorPPTOI": 3.323728813559322, "deploymentChange": -1.0276836158192069, "ppTOIChange": 0.10543785310734455, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020721", "date": "20260112", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 18.783333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2024021178", "date": "20250331", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 19.933333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024021162", "date": "20250329", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 19.866666666666667 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 3, "h2hSOG": 1.6666666666666667, "opponentDefense": { "team": "NJD", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 234.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 26.0, "mostAllowedRank": 22, "fiveSogAllowed60": 24.374647357532442, "pkSogAllowed60": 52.512155591572125, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 37.111111111111114, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "L": 41.0, "D": 63.0, "C": 78.0, "R": 52.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 8.666666666666666, "L": 4.555555555555555, "R": 5.777777777777778, "D": 7.0 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 25.0, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 25.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 26.0, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.777777777777778, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8474596", "team": "NJD", "name": "Jake Allen", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 6, "savePct": 0.8834355828220859, "gaa": 3.1496062992125986, "gsax": -3.708, "goalsAllowed": 19.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 15.292, "shotsAgainst": 163.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0365218981504722, "factor": 1.0365218981504722, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T17:31:56.013Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.12427360059383855, "goalHistoryGoals": 34.0, "goalHistoryShots": 277.0, "goalExpected": 0.12390724902464471, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.128432576953628, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.1165382209755355, "goalProbability": 0.12052714284129144, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.39889218657559455, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 4, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 0.997052056370434, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.3285899094437257, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 12.883333333333333, "Current_PP_Share": 0.6927609427609428, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.575661375661376, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 3.1698394883580074, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.5, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9778442581785296, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0469775686735434, "Position_Factor": 1.0147397181478286, "Input_GP": 4, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 823.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1188.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.576640074355201, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 8.261091279959205, "Prior_5v5_Min": 14.588700564971752, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.6299451351250764, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0348001150417026, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.382352941176471, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0348001150417026, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0469775686735434, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 2.3285899094437257, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 0.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020721", "date": "20260112", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 18.783333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2024021178", "date": "20250331", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 19.933333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024021162", "date": "20250329", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 19.866666666666667 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 130, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 45, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8474596", "goalieName": "Jake Allen", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8475692", "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 2, "recordedAttempts": 2, "log": [ { "gameId": "2022020151", "date": "20221101", "season": 2022, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2022020101", "date": "20221025", "season": 2022, "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 1 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8474596", "goalieName": "Jake Allen", "opponent": "LAK", "games": 5, "availableGames": 17, "shotsAgainst": 151.0, "goalsAgainst": 16.0, "savePct": 0.8940397350993378, "gaa": 3.2597623089983023, "gsax": 1.5839999999999996, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021050", "date": "20260314", "goalieTeam": "NJD", "opponent": "LAK", "shotsAgainst": 31.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.558 }, { "gameId": "2024020602", "date": "20250101", "goalieTeam": "NJD", "opponent": "LAK", "shotsAgainst": 23.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3431.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.828 }, { "gameId": "2023020309", "date": "20231125", "goalieTeam": "MTL", "opponent": "LAK", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.339 }, { "gameId": "2022020982", "date": "20230302", "goalieTeam": "MTL", "opponent": "LAK", "shotsAgainst": 33.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3509.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.849 }, { "gameId": "2022020439", "date": "20221210", "goalieTeam": "MTL", "opponent": "LAK", "shotsAgainst": 34.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3530.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.01 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.997052056370434, "adjustedSOG": 0.997052056370434, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.017400057520851, "adjustedSOG": 0.997052056370434, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.12427360059383855, "goalHistoryGoals": 34.0, "goalHistoryShots": 277.0, "goalExpected": 0.1264359683924946, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.1264359683924946, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.11876942565273085, "goalProbability": 0.11876942565273085, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12851147423877132, "modelSOG": 0.997052056370434, "historyGames": 132, "seasonGames": { "2024": 69, "2025": 59, "2026": 4 }, "historyGoals": 34.0, "historyShots": 277.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.12274368231046931, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.12427360059383855, "goalieFactor": 1.0365218981504722, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 47.92350470130456, "btb": { "id": "8475692", "name": "Mats Zuccarello", "score": 47.92350470130456, "components": { "Goal model": 45.116279069767444, "SOG model": 27.906976744186046, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 43.25581395348837, "Goalie": 55.44117647058823, "Team H2H": 50.692910222936334, "Goalie H2H": 50.31264474293654 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 3, "goalieH2HShots": 1, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 232 } }, { "id": "8473533", "name": "Jordan Staal", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "STL", "position": "C", "currentGP": 6, "currentSOG": 1.0, "priorSOG": 1.4266666666666667, "currentTOI": 15.56111111111111, "currentFiveTOI": 10.866666666666667, "ppShare": 0.22202407489968792, "rate": 1.4096869828877965, "fifty": 1.283275161152705, "inputs": { "Player": "Jordan Staal", "Player_ID": "8473533", "Team": "CAR", "Opponent": "STL", "Position": "C", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.5068349928493272, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.36831709620547, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 6, "Prior_GP": 75, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.601226993865031, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.177766474312876, "Current_PP_SOG60": 7.228915662650603, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 16.527977044476327, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 11.407533333333333, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 10.866666666666667, "Current_PP_Share": 0.22202407489968792, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.17527009331750953, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 498.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2243.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 6, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 6.0017676767676775, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 1.24835495557116, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 1.3325369161971927, "Other_State_SOG": 0.10800000000000001, "Environment_Proxy": 1.00049372648272, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.4266666666666667, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:40.829862+00:00", "priorGP": 75, "currentTotalSOG": 6.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.3833333333333335, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.00 SOG/game in 6 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 6 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.9560000000000001, "currentIXG": 0.15933333333333335, "priorTOI": 16.187555555555555, "priorPPTOI": 0.7744444444444445, "deploymentChange": -0.626444444444445, "ppTOIChange": 0.608888888888889, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021033", "date": "20260312", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "STL", "venue": "home", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 14.666666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020730", "date": "20260113", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "STL", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 14.4 }, { "gameId": "2024020284", "date": "20241117", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "STL", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 13.95 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 2.6666666666666665, "opponentDefense": { "team": "STL", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 246.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.333333333333332, "mostAllowedRank": 15, "fiveSogAllowed60": 24.991224991224993, "pkSogAllowed60": 45.92737978410206, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 41.333333333333336, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 29.0, "L": 56.0, "D": 69.0, "C": 92.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.222222222222221, "L": 6.222222222222222, "R": 3.2222222222222223, "D": 7.666666666666667 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 27.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 3, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27.666666666666668, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.333333333333332, "oppPosSogAllowed": 10.222222222222221, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8480981", "team": "STL", "name": "Joel Hofer", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 6, "savePct": 0.9192546583850931, "gaa": 2.1949160491511117, "gsax": 2.83, "goalsAllowed": 13.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 15.83, "shotsAgainst": 161.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9785370006226618, "factor": 0.9785370006226618, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T15:44:23.131Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.1432671947932564, "goalHistoryGoals": 33.0, "goalHistoryShots": 220.0, "goalExpected": 0.14376073608025458, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.1406751994912784, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.13390505145732334, "goalProbability": 0.1312285567163124, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.26764947410109485, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 6, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.0034449008910267, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.601226993865031, "Current_PP_SOG60": 7.228915662650603, "Current_5v5_Min": 10.866666666666667, "Current_PP_Share": 0.22202407489968792, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 6.0017676767676775, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.3325369161971927, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9895702550696535, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9828075032932179, "Position_Factor": 1.009381033998414, "Input_GP": 6, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 498.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2243.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.177766474312876, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 16.527977044476327, "Prior_5v5_Min": 12.669555555555556, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.17527009331750953, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0393643388249014, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.437908496732026, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0393643388249014, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9828075032932179, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 4.601226993865031, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 7.228915662650603, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 3.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021033", "date": "20260312", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "STL", "venue": "home", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 14.666666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020730", "date": "20260113", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "STL", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 14.4 }, { "gameId": "2024020284", "date": "20241117", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "STL", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 13.95 }, { "gameId": "2024020084", "date": "20241019", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "STL", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 12.366666666666667 } ], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Reviewed October22 projected lineup and coach reports", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 140, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 28, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480981", "goalieName": "Joel Hofer", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8473533", "goals": 0, "sog": 6, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 4, "recordedAttempts": 9, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020730", "date": "20260113", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 4 }, { "gameId": "2024020284", "date": "20241117", "season": 2024, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2024020084", "date": "20241019", "season": 2024, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 3 }, { "gameId": "2021020216", "date": "20211113", "season": 2021, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480981", "goalieName": "Joel Hofer", "opponent": "CAR", "games": 4, "availableGames": 4, "shotsAgainst": 121.0, "goalsAgainst": 10.0, "savePct": 0.9173553719008265, "gaa": 2.5300442757748263, "gsax": 1.0949999999999998, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020730", "date": "20260113", "goalieTeam": "STL", "opponent": "CAR", "shotsAgainst": 33.0, "goalsAgainst": 0.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.698 }, { "gameId": "2024020284", "date": "20241117", "goalieTeam": "STL", "opponent": "CAR", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.293 }, { "gameId": "2024020084", "date": "20241019", "goalieTeam": "STL", "opponent": "CAR", "shotsAgainst": 40.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.792 }, { "gameId": "2021020216", "date": "20211113", "goalieTeam": "STL", "opponent": "CAR", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3429.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.312 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.0034449008910267, "adjustedSOG": 1.0034449008910267, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.0239233682561497, "adjustedSOG": 1.0034449008910267, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.1432671947932564, "goalHistoryGoals": 33.0, "goalHistoryShots": 220.0, "goalExpected": 0.146694628653321, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.14354612192987593, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.13644235708332156, "goalProbability": 0.1337191552785329, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.2723201804788661 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1284550233384205, "modelSOG": 1.0034449008910267, "historyGames": 156, "seasonGames": { "2024": 75, "2025": 75, "2026": 6 }, "historyGoals": 33.0, "historyShots": 220.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.15, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.1432671947932564, "goalieFactor": 0.9785370006226618, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8479343", "name": "Clayton Keller", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "TBL", "position": "L", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 2.3, "priorSOG": 2.7439024390243905, "currentTOI": 17.703333333333333, "currentFiveTOI": 13.16, "ppShare": 0.7504015419209765, "rate": 2.3480910885924335, "fifty": 2.2562352866101705, "inputs": { "Player": "Clayton Keller", "Player_ID": "8479343", "Team": "UTA", "Opponent": "TBL", "Position": "R", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 3.056255056444475, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 3.127474806226145, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 10, "Prior_GP": 82, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.927051671732523, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 7.736144168650119, "Current_PP_SOG60": 12.32876712328767, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 8.862399585384814, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 13.695231707317074, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 13.16, "Current_PP_Share": 0.7504015419209765, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.6588022398251844, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2336.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3113.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 6, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.821018518518519, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 3.4852191504197223, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 3.617699729925879, "Other_State_SOG": 0.3163414634146342, "Environment_Proxy": 0.8844868901771036, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 2.7439024390243905, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/utah-mammoth/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:40.847078+00:00", "priorGP": 82, "currentTotalSOG": 23.0, "currentPPTOI": 3.893333333333333, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.30 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 3.096, "currentIXG": 0.3096, "priorTOI": 19.085772357723577, "priorPPTOI": 3.1373983739837397, "deploymentChange": -1.3824390243902442, "ppTOIChange": 0.7559349593495934, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020825", "date": "20260126", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 19.933333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020194", "date": "20251102", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 20.016666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024021145", "date": "20250327", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 19.816666666666666 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 2.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "TBL", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 218.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 24.22222222222222, "mostAllowedRank": 29, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.310572168589594, "pkSogAllowed60": 47.9002079002079, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 36.333333333333336, "positionUnassignedSOG": 1.0, "positionTotals": { "L": 36.0, "R": 49.0, "D": 66.0, "C": 66.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.333333333333333, "L": 4.0, "R": 5.444444444444445, "D": 7.333333333333333 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 24.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.25, "positionSourceDifference": 1.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 24.22222222222222, "oppPosSogAllowed": 4.0, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8483710", "team": "TBL", "name": "Dennis Hildeby", "status": "Unconfirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 2, "savePct": 0.92, "gaa": 2.0089285714285716, "gsax": 0.8719999999999999, "goalsAllowed": 4.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.872, "shotsAgainst": 50.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9926942170737747, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Starter remains unconfirmed per Daily Faceoff; no Model Goal adjustment.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": null }, "goalShootingPct": 0.12870957019386067, "goalHistoryGoals": 60.0, "goalHistoryShots": 466.0, "goalExpected": 0.2724250087667337, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.2724250087667337, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.23846946485204445, "goalProbability": 0.23846946485204445, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 2.1165870444319776, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.927051671732523, "Current_PP_SOG60": 12.32876712328767, "Current_5v5_Min": 13.16, "Current_PP_Share": 0.7504015419209765, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.821018518518519, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 3.617699729925879, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.2, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9588832837562793, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0032616490671127, "Position_Factor": 0.9867937882386387, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2336.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3113.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 7.736144168650119, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 8.862399585384814, "Prior_5v5_Min": 14.944105691056912, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.6588022398251844, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9006149977914444, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.062091503267974, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9006149977914444, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0032616490671127, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.927051671732523, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 12.32876712328767, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020825", "date": "20260126", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 19.933333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020194", "date": "20251102", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 20.016666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024021145", "date": "20250327", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 19.816666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024021111", "date": "20250322", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 18.083333333333332 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 233, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 68, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8483710", "goalieName": "Dennis Hildeby", "starterStatus": "Unconfirmed", "shooterId": "8479343", "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 2, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020733", "date": "20260113", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8483710", "goalieName": "Dennis Hildeby", "opponent": "UTA", "games": 1, "availableGames": 1, "shotsAgainst": 41.0, "goalsAgainst": 6.0, "savePct": 0.8536585365853658, "gaa": 6.0, "gsax": -1.2770000000000001, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020733", "date": "20260113", "goalieTeam": "TOR", "opponent": "UTA", "shotsAgainst": 41.0, "goalsAgainst": 6.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.723 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 2.1165870444319776, "adjustedSOG": 2.1165870444319776, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 2.1165870444319776, "adjustedSOG": 2.1165870444319776, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.12870957019386067, "goalHistoryGoals": 60.0, "goalHistoryShots": 466.0, "goalExpected": 0.2724250087667337, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.2724250087667337, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.23846946485204445, "goalProbability": 0.23846946485204445, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12849616729725136, "modelSOG": 2.1165870444319776, "historyGames": 173, "seasonGames": { "2024": 81, "2025": 82, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 60.0, "historyShots": 466.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.12875536480686695, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.12870957019386067, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 59.99607921376092, "btb": { "id": "8479343", "name": "Clayton Keller", "score": 59.99607921376092, "components": { "Goal model": 81.3953488372093, "SOG model": 79.30232558139535, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 84.88372093023256, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 41.7568071615069, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Unconfirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": 1, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 89 } }, { "id": "8474578", "name": "Erik Karlsson", "team": "PIT", "opponent": "NSH", "position": "D", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 1.5, "priorSOG": 2.3466666666666667, "currentTOI": 23.130000000000003, "currentFiveTOI": 17.043333333333333, "ppShare": 0.6935374149659864, "rate": 2.4140704255750722, "fifty": 2.152629721525783, "inputs": { "Player": "Erik Karlsson", "Player_ID": "8474578", "Team": "PIT", "Opponent": "NSH", "Position": "D", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 2.487160573434832, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 2.251891878427134, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 10, "Prior_GP": 75, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.816350479170741, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.139251800395131, "Current_PP_SOG60": 8.827856792545365, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 9.207161125319693, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 17.160666666666664, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 17.043333333333333, "Current_PP_Share": 0.6935374149659864, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.7100824982005427, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2039.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2940.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 6, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.130208333333334, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 3.583455342902646, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 3.557991425736962, "Other_State_SOG": 0.308, "Environment_Proxy": 1.0738773444064478, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 2.3466666666666667, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/pittsburgh-penguins/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:40.864696+00:00", "priorGP": 75, "currentTotalSOG": 15.0, "currentPPTOI": 3.3983333333333334, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.50 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.2329999999999999, "currentIXG": 0.12329999999999999, "priorTOI": 23.600444444444445, "priorPPTOI": 3.128, "deploymentChange": -0.47044444444444267, "ppTOIChange": 0.2703333333333333, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020296", "date": "20251116", "team": "PIT", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 21.0 }, { "gameId": "2025020281", "date": "20251114", "team": "PIT", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 22.933333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020830", "date": "20250201", "team": "PIT", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 22.133333333333333 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 1.3333333333333333, "opponentDefense": { "team": "NSH", "games": 8, "sogAllowedTotal": 233.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 29.125, "mostAllowedRank": 8, "fiveSogAllowed60": 26.902173913043477, "pkSogAllowed60": 37.776914108045084, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 45.125, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 82.0, "L": 44.0, "D": 67.0, "R": 40.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.25, "L": 5.5, "R": 5.0, "D": 8.375 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 27.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 3, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 30.0, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 29.125, "oppPosSogAllowed": 8.375, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8477424", "team": "NSH", "name": "Juuse Saros", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.9061032863849765, "gaa": 2.8192176670973805, "gsax": 1.6679999999999993, "goalsAllowed": 20.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 21.668, "shotsAgainst": 213.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9906396066739361, "factor": 0.9906396066739361, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T15:56:16.281Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.06795787850911705, "goalHistoryGoals": 27.0, "goalHistoryShots": 382.0, "goalExpected": 0.10354841859485067, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.10257916466851097, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.09836763408726658, "goalProbability": 0.09749329971893067, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.08743343683359078, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.5237147019084607, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.816350479170741, "Current_PP_SOG60": 8.827856792545365, "Current_5v5_Min": 17.043333333333333, "Current_PP_Share": 0.6935374149659864, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.130208333333334, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 3.557991425736962, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.2, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0235094259979116, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9053307495740243, "Position_Factor": 1.007338478796179, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2039.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2940.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.139251800395131, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 9.207161125319693, "Prior_5v5_Min": 17.434444444444445, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.7100824982005427, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0622281534203242, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.34640522875817, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0622281534203242, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9053307495740243, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 2.816350479170741, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 8.827856792545365, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 3.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020296", "date": "20251116", "team": "PIT", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 21.0 }, { "gameId": "2025020281", "date": "20251114", "team": "PIT", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 22.933333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020830", "date": "20250201", "team": "PIT", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 22.133333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020515", "date": "20241219", "team": "PIT", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 20.816666666666666 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 190, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 60, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477424", "goalieName": "Juuse Saros", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8474578", "goals": 2, "sog": 19, "shootingPct": 0.10526315789473684, "gamesWithAttempts": 9, "recordedAttempts": 31, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020281", "date": "20251114", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 3 }, { "gameId": "2024020830", "date": "20250201", "season": 2024, "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 4 }, { "gameId": "2024020515", "date": "20241219", "season": 2024, "goals": 1, "sog": 4, "attempts": 5 }, { "gameId": "2023021289", "date": "20240415", "season": 2023, "goals": 1, "sog": 7, "attempts": 7 }, { "gameId": "2023020331", "date": "20231128", "season": 2023, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 5 }, { "gameId": "2022020929", "date": "20230223", "season": 2022, "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 3 }, { "gameId": "2022020001", "date": "20221007", "season": 2022, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2 }, { "gameId": "2021021188", "date": "20220412", "season": 2021, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2021020092", "date": "20211026", "season": 2021, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477424", "goalieName": "Juuse Saros", "opponent": "PIT", "games": 5, "availableGames": 13, "shotsAgainst": 131.0, "goalsAgainst": 15.0, "savePct": 0.8854961832061069, "gaa": 3.034219250435467, "gsax": -2.5649999999999995, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020296", "date": "20251116", "goalieTeam": "NSH", "opponent": "PIT", "shotsAgainst": 21.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3562.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.064 }, { "gameId": "2025020281", "date": "20251114", "goalieTeam": "NSH", "opponent": "PIT", "shotsAgainst": 17.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3637.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.622 }, { "gameId": "2024020830", "date": "20250201", "goalieTeam": "NSH", "opponent": "PIT", "shotsAgainst": 35.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3527.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.258 }, { "gameId": "2024020515", "date": "20241219", "goalieTeam": "NSH", "opponent": "PIT", "shotsAgainst": 20.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3657.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.863 }, { "gameId": "2023021289", "date": "20240415", "goalieTeam": "NSH", "opponent": "PIT", "shotsAgainst": 38.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3414.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.628 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.5237147019084607, "adjustedSOG": 1.5237147019084607, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.5237147019084607, "adjustedSOG": 1.5237147019084607, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.06795787850911705, "goalHistoryGoals": 27.0, "goalHistoryShots": 382.0, "goalExpected": 0.10354841859485067, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.10257916466851097, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.09836763408726658, "goalProbability": 0.09749329971893067, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.08743343683359078 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05755697441394417, "modelSOG": 1.5237147019084607, "historyGames": 167, "seasonGames": { "2024": 82, "2025": 75, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 27.0, "historyShots": 382.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.07068062827225131, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.06795787850911705, "goalieFactor": 0.9906396066739361, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 52.31973719530581, "btb": { "id": "8474578", "name": "Erik Karlsson", "score": 52.31973719530581, "components": { "Goal model": 37.44186046511628, "SOG model": 58.372093023255815, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 34.883720930232556, "Goalie": 81.91176470588235, "Team H2H": 60.70496083550914, "Goalie H2H": 61.27467762181901 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": 19, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 182 } }, { "id": "8480800", "name": "Quinn Hughes", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "SEA", "position": "D", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 3.0, "priorSOG": 2.527027027027027, "currentTOI": 27.051666666666666, "currentFiveTOI": 22.69833333333333, "ppShare": 0.8212520593080724, "rate": 2.8075924171039146, "fifty": 3.0518685694667553, "inputs": { "Player": "Quinn Hughes", "Player_ID": "8480800", "Team": "MIN", "Opponent": "SEA", "Position": "D", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 2.832017304418658, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 3.2132481674884725, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 10, "Prior_GP": 74, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 6.079741537557823, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.738664668597234, "Current_PP_SOG60": 9.027081243731194, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 8.129791406667856, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 22.561941441441437, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 22.69833333333333, "Current_PP_Share": 0.8212520593080724, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.718291734471094, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1994.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2428.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 5, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 3.9491666666666667, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 3.1212790127001857, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 3.243261257550796, "Other_State_SOG": 0.22675675675675677, "Environment_Proxy": 1.1489692159321772, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 2.527027027027027, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/minnesota-wild/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:40.882491+00:00", "priorGP": 74, "currentTotalSOG": 30.0, "currentPPTOI": 3.3233333333333333, "volumeNote": "Observed 3.00 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. 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MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021240", "date": "20260407", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 25.316666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020693", "date": "20260108", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 8.0, "toi": 30.216666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2024021196", "date": "20250402", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 8.0, "toi": 27.75 }, { "gameId": "2024020960", "date": "20250301", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 21.933333333333334 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 191, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 60, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478916", "goalieName": "Joey Daccord", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8480800", "goals": 1, "sog": 6, "shootingPct": 0.16666666666666666, "gamesWithAttempts": 5, "recordedAttempts": 14, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021240", "date": "20260407", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2024021196", "date": "20250402", "season": 2024, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 4 }, { "gameId": "2024020960", "date": "20250301", "season": 2024, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 4 }, { "gameId": "2023020307", "date": "20231124", "season": 2023, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 3 }, { "gameId": "2021021284", "date": "20220426", "season": 2021, "goals": 1, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478916", "goalieName": "Joey Daccord", "opponent": "MIN", "games": 5, "availableGames": 6, "shotsAgainst": 123.0, "goalsAgainst": 19.0, "savePct": 0.8455284552845528, "gaa": 4.3387250237868695, "gsax": -6.912000000000001, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021240", "date": "20260407", "goalieTeam": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 28.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3488.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.569 }, { "gameId": "2024020982", "date": "20250304", "goalieTeam": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 20.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3463.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.635 }, { "gameId": "2024020033", "date": "20241012", "goalieTeam": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 38.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3885.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.839 }, { "gameId": "2023021307", "date": "20240418", "goalieTeam": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.121 }, { "gameId": "2023020913", "date": "20240224", "goalieTeam": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 13.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 1329.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.924 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 3.1798731234116184, "adjustedSOG": 3.1798731234116184, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 3.244768493277162, "adjustedSOG": 3.1798731234116184, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.06032180162089553, "goalHistoryGoals": 25.0, "goalHistoryShots": 410.0, "goalExpected": 0.19573028135719706, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.19573028135719706, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.17776602339488712, "goalProbability": 0.17776602339488712, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05764118826656718, "modelSOG": 3.1798731234116184, "historyGames": 152, "seasonGames": { "2024": 68, "2025": 74, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 25.0, "historyShots": 410.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.06097560975609756, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.06032180162089553, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 54.71949897209476, "btb": { "id": "8480800", "name": "Quinn Hughes", "score": 54.71949897209476, "components": { "Goal model": 64.88372093023256, "SOG model": 96.51162790697674, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 61.627906976744185, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 38.36255128683327, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Likely", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": 6, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 151 } }, { "id": "8481546", "name": "Cam York", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "ANA", "position": "D", "currentGP": 5, "currentSOG": 1.2, "priorSOG": 1.2027027027027026, "currentTOI": 21.82333333333333, "currentFiveTOI": 15.95, "ppShare": 0.2328854766474728, "rate": 1.1432742558940991, "fifty": 1.1438459864882897, "inputs": { "Player": "Cam York", "Player_ID": "8481546", "Team": "PHI", "Opponent": "ANA", "Position": "D", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.238219507028871, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.2447035350801592, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 5, "Prior_GP": 74, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.0094043887147337, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 2.4731363983979056, "Current_PP_SOG60": 9.89010989010989, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 10.130856901646265, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 16.37777027027027, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 15.95, "Current_PP_Share": 0.2328854766474728, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.3759176463667241, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 364.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1563.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 5, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.042592592592593, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 1.3907224673235645, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 1.1743465794649417, "Other_State_SOG": 0.21459459459459462, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9949214190083264, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.2027027027027026, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/philadelphia-flyers/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:40.899877+00:00", "priorGP": 74, "currentTotalSOG": 6.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.2133333333333334, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.20 SOG/game in 5 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 5 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.44, "currentIXG": 0.088, "priorTOI": 22.535810810810812, "priorPPTOI": 1.6006756756756757, "deploymentChange": -0.7124774774774814, "ppTOIChange": -0.3873423423423423, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021082", "date": "20260318", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 21.566666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020670", "date": "20260106", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "home", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 25.583333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2024020675", "date": "20250111", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "home", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 8.0, "toi": 23.25 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 3.3333333333333335, "opponentDefense": { "team": "ANA", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 239.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 26.555555555555557, "mostAllowedRank": 18, "fiveSogAllowed60": 25.834281008587897, "pkSogAllowed60": 38.93928820655967, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 43.333333333333336, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 54.0, "C": 91.0, "R": 57.0, "L": 37.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.11111111111111, "L": 4.111111111111111, "R": 6.333333333333333, "D": 6.0 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 28.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.2, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 26.555555555555557, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.0, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8480843", "team": "ANA", "name": "Lukas Dostal", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.8813559322033898, "gaa": 3.1634446397188047, "gsax": 2.846, "goalsAllowed": 21.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 23.846, "shotsAgainst": 177.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9815060369171769, "factor": 0.9815060369171769, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T16:38:16.530Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.05296200924446473, "goalHistoryGoals": 8.0, "goalHistoryShots": 160.0, "goalExpected": 0.05863074202721897, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.05754642724864906, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.05694506457476524, "goalProbability": 0.05592194157783119, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.10231229969340505, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 5, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.1070339449658757, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.0094043887147337, "Current_PP_SOG60": 9.89010989010989, "Current_5v5_Min": 15.95, "Current_PP_Share": 0.2328854766474728, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.042592592592593, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.1743465794649417, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.2, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0050173142237073, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9117211340641708, "Position_Factor": 0.9807721620568941, "Input_GP": 5, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 364.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1563.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 2.4731363983979056, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 10.130856901646265, "Prior_5v5_Min": 17.3759009009009, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.3759176463667241, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9131859898857464, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.34640522875817, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9131859898857464, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9117211340641708, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 3.0094043887147337, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 9.89010989010989, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021082", "date": "20260318", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 21.566666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020670", "date": "20260106", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "home", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 25.583333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2024020675", "date": "20250111", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "home", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 8.0, "toi": 23.25 }, { "gameId": "2024020568", "date": "20241228", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 19.516666666666666 } ], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff latest reported chart; October 21 final lineup pending", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 93, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. 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Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480843", "goalieName": "Lukas Dostal", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8481546", "goals": 1, "sog": 5, "shootingPct": 0.2, "gamesWithAttempts": 3, "recordedAttempts": 7, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020670", "date": "20260106", "season": 2025, "goals": 1, "sog": 5, "attempts": 5 }, { "gameId": "2023020208", "date": "20231110", "season": 2023, "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2023020117", "date": "20231028", "season": 2023, "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 1 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480843", "goalieName": "Lukas Dostal", "opponent": "PHI", "games": 5, "availableGames": 5, "shotsAgainst": 155.0, "goalsAgainst": 18.0, "savePct": 0.8838709677419355, "gaa": 3.646595385481148, "gsax": -2.507999999999999, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021082", "date": "20260318", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 28.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3704.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.611 }, { "gameId": "2025020670", "date": "20260106", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 38.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3560.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.171 }, { "gameId": "2024020568", "date": "20241228", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3472.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.781 }, { "gameId": "2023020208", "date": "20231110", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 35.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3450.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.281 }, { "gameId": "2023020117", "date": "20231028", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3584.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.648 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.1070339449658757, "adjustedSOG": 1.1070339449658757, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.1070339449658757, "adjustedSOG": 1.1070339449658757, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.05296200924446473, "goalHistoryGoals": 8.0, "goalHistoryShots": 160.0, "goalExpected": 0.05863074202721897, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.05863074202721897, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.05694506457476524, "goalProbability": 0.05694506457476524, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05770122403560831, "modelSOG": 1.1070339449658757, "historyGames": 145, "seasonGames": { "2024": 66, "2025": 74, "2026": 5 }, "historyGoals": 8.0, "historyShots": 160.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.05, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.05296200924446473, "goalieFactor": 0.9815060369171769, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8484759", "name": "Carter Yakemchuk", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "NYR", "position": "D", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 1.3, "priorSOG": 1.25, "currentTOI": 18.869999999999997, "currentFiveTOI": 14.388333333333332, "ppShare": 0.4607636448817053, "rate": 1.2763529352043397, "fifty": 1.221415388413036, "inputs": { "Player": "Carter Yakemchuk", "Player_ID": "8484759", "Team": "OTT", "Opponent": "NYR", "Position": "D", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.2394663416095626, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.2900554652981684, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 10, "Prior_GP": 4, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.919031622842581, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.936675461741425, "Current_PP_SOG60": 9.150991357397052, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 13.861833333333331, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 14.388333333333332, "Current_PP_Share": 0.4607636448817053, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.34576240507474715, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1967.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 4269.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 5, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 6.001439393939394, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 2.5581931984093624, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 2.7652450896881677, "Other_State_SOG": 0.010000000000000002, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9482920490252438, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.25, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/ottawa-senators/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:40.916698+00:00", "priorGP": 4, "currentTotalSOG": 13.0, "currentPPTOI": 3.2783333333333333, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.30 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.645, "currentIXG": 0.0645, "priorTOI": 14.533333333333333, "priorPPTOI": 1.7083333333333333, "deploymentChange": 4.336666666666664, "ppTOIChange": 1.57, "h2hLog": [], "h2hGames": 0, "h2hAvailableGames": 0, "h2hSOG": null, "opponentDefense": { "team": "NYR", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 283.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 25.727272727272727, "mostAllowedRank": 23, "fiveSogAllowed60": 24.897512126427788, "pkSogAllowed60": 40.17358958462492, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 39.81818181818182, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 106.0, "D": 82.0, "R": 57.0, "L": 38.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.636363636363637, "L": 3.4545454545454546, "R": 5.181818181818182, "D": 7.454545454545454 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 27.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.4, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 25.727272727272727, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.454545454545454, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8482193", "team": "NYR", "name": "Dylan Garand", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.9285714285714286, "gaa": 1.846928781306842, "gsax": 4.030999999999999, "goalsAllowed": 11.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 15.030999999999999, "shotsAgainst": 154.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9674872583533348, "factor": 0.9674872583533348, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T15:37:42.216Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.06580554099981123, "goalHistoryGoals": 2.0, "goalHistoryShots": 18.0, "goalExpected": 0.07852662186985204, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.07597350610061218, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.07552255171435883, "goalProbability": 0.07315923814000878, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.23633135743500455, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.1933132176525576, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.919031622842581, "Current_PP_SOG60": 9.150991357397052, "Current_5v5_Min": 14.388333333333332, "Current_PP_Share": 0.4607636448817053, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 6.001439393939394, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 2.7652450896881677, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.1, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9864268368728425, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9197863814450764, "Position_Factor": 1.0097164911259575, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1967.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 4269.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.936675461741425, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 12.633333333333333, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.34576240507474715, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0077105575326217, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.34640522875817, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0077105575326217, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9197863814450764, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 2.919031622842581, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 9.150991357397052, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "lineupReviewedAt": "2026-10-22T12:25:32.333917+00:00", "lineupReviewNote": "Reported forward, defense and PP chart reviewed October22; matches existing assignments. Final dressing unconfirmed. Dated statistical inputs now include October21.", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 8, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482193", "goalieName": "Dylan Garand", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8484759", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482193", "goalieName": "Dylan Garand", "opponent": "OTT", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "No appearance found in the supplied historical files; this does not establish that the goalie has never faced the team." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.1933132176525576, "adjustedSOG": 1.1933132176525576, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.1933132176525576, "adjustedSOG": 1.1933132176525576, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.06580554099981123, "goalHistoryGoals": 2.0, "goalHistoryShots": 18.0, "goalExpected": 0.07852662186985204, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.07597350610061218, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.07552255171435883, "goalProbability": 0.07315923814000878, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.23633135743500455 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05765053837977725, "modelSOG": 1.1933132176525576, "historyGames": 14, "seasonGames": { "2025": 4, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 2.0, "historyShots": 18.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.1111111111111111, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.06580554099981123, "goalieFactor": 0.9674872583533348, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": 40.43262653898769, "btb": { "id": "8484759", "name": "Carter Yakemchuk", "score": 40.43262653898769, "components": { "Goal model": 27.441860465116278, "SOG model": 40.46511627906977, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 14.651162790697674, "Goalie": 39.55882352941177, "Team H2H": 50.0, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Team H2H unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 0, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 344 } }, { "id": "8484999", "name": "Ilya Protas", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "position": "C", "currentGP": 9, "currentSOG": 0.8888888888888888, "priorSOG": 1.75, "currentTOI": 12.057407407407407, "currentFiveTOI": 10.196296296296296, "ppShare": 0.3396901072705602, "rate": 1.3837427085315783, "fifty": 1.0697269090673143, "inputs": { "Player": "Ilya Protas", "Player_ID": "8484999", "Team": "WSH", "Opponent": "BUF", "Position": "L", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.2293156507393785, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 0.87985921633264, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 9, "Prior_GP": 4, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.615328732292045, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.778491171749598, "Current_PP_SOG60": 8.421052631578947, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 12.34991423670669, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 11.031157407407406, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 10.196296296296296, "Current_PP_Share": 0.3396901072705602, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.5551246202866776, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 855.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2517.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 5, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.500555555555556, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 1.8196666977677103, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 1.5287941994437824, "Other_State_SOG": 0.022222222222222223, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9496227273390297, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.75, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:40.933988+00:00", "priorGP": 4, "currentTotalSOG": 8.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.5833333333333333, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.89 SOG/game in 9 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 9 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.3920000000000001, "currentIXG": 0.15466666666666667, "priorTOI": 15.891666666666667, "priorPPTOI": 2.4291666666666667, "deploymentChange": -3.8342592592592606, "ppTOIChange": -0.8458333333333334, "h2hLog": [], "h2hGames": 0, "h2hAvailableGames": 0, "h2hSOG": null, "opponentDefense": { "team": "BUF", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 257.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 25.7, "mostAllowedRank": 24, "fiveSogAllowed60": 21.645723550871505, "pkSogAllowed60": 62.21198156682028, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 40.1, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 61.0, "L": 55.0, "D": 65.0, "C": 76.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.6, "L": 5.5, "R": 6.1, "D": 6.5 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 30.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.25, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 25.7, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.6, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8480045", "team": "BUF", "name": "Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 8, "savePct": 0.8629441624365483, "gaa": 3.5349310833909153, "gsax": -3.6580000000000013, "goalsAllowed": 27.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 23.342, "shotsAgainst": 197.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.035448902624297, "factor": 1.035448902624297, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T15:43:35.500Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.12912747560225515, "goalHistoryGoals": 2.0, "goalHistoryShots": 15.0, "goalExpected": 0.11216356388577314, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.11613963913995404, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.10610196389385697, "goalProbability": 0.10964911321553514, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.35471493216781697, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 9, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 0.8686266293260848, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.615328732292045, "Current_PP_SOG60": 8.421052631578947, "Current_5v5_Min": 10.196296296296296, "Current_PP_Share": 0.3396901072705602, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.500555555555556, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.5287941994437824, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.2222222222222222, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.922717716387106, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.1429256259066152, "Position_Factor": 0.981671103829613, "Input_GP": 9, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 855.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2517.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.778491171749598, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 12.34991423670669, "Prior_5v5_Min": 12.979166666666666, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.5551246202866776, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9026315789473685, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.437908496732026, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9026315789473685, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.1429256259066152, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 2.977667493796526, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 9.89010989010989, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "NHL.com October 20 game-specific projected lineup", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 5, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480045", "goalieName": "Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8484999", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480045", "goalieName": "Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen", "opponent": "WSH", "games": 5, "availableGames": 10, "shotsAgainst": 138.0, "goalsAgainst": 13.0, "savePct": 0.9057971014492754, "gaa": 2.5547246028713357, "gsax": 1.2270000000000003, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021028", "date": "20260312", "goalieTeam": "BUF", "opponent": "WSH", "shotsAgainst": 22.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3513.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.736 }, { "gameId": "2025020186", "date": "20251101", "goalieTeam": "BUF", "opponent": "WSH", "shotsAgainst": 34.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3868.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.692 }, { "gameId": "2024020637", "date": "20250106", "goalieTeam": "BUF", "opponent": "WSH", "shotsAgainst": 28.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3900.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.29 }, { "gameId": "2024020480", "date": "20241214", "goalieTeam": "BUF", "opponent": "WSH", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3438.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.234 }, { "gameId": "2023021255", "date": "20240411", "goalieTeam": "BUF", "opponent": "WSH", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.275 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.8686266293260848, "adjustedSOG": 0.8686266293260848, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.8686266293260848, "adjustedSOG": 0.8686266293260848, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.12912747560225515, "goalHistoryGoals": 2.0, "goalHistoryShots": 15.0, "goalExpected": 0.11216356388577314, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.11613963913995404, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.10610196389385697, "goalProbability": 0.10964911321553514, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.35471493216781697 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12849659694259344, "modelSOG": 0.8686266293260848, "historyGames": 13, "seasonGames": { "2025": 4, "2026": 9 }, "historyGoals": 2.0, "historyShots": 15.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.13333333333333333, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.12912747560225515, "goalieFactor": 1.035448902624297, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": 42.1515047879617, "btb": { "id": "8484999", "name": "Ilya Protas", "score": 42.1515047879617, "components": { "Goal model": 39.76744186046512, "SOG model": 19.767441860465116, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 49.30232558139535, "Goalie": 7.794117647058823, "Team H2H": 50.0, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Team H2H unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 0, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 315 } }, { "id": "8481789", "name": "Tye Kartye", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "OTT", "position": "L", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 1.2727272727272727, "priorSOG": 0.875, "currentTOI": 15.166666666666668, "currentFiveTOI": 13.01969696969697, "ppShare": 0.0025348542458808617, "rate": 0.9546739370801965, "fifty": 1.0464457055725445, "inputs": { "Player": "Tye Kartye", "Player_ID": "8481789", "Team": "NYR", "Opponent": "OTT", "Position": "L", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 0.8954740423072753, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 0.9720454903135962, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 11, "Prior_GP": 64, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.446293494704992, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.831254038471097, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 12.25738162878788, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 13.01969696969697, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0025348542458808617, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.010589782775109, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 8.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3156.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 7, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.145909090909091, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.025479108491561257, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.013044129508007835, "Other_State_SOG": 0.03721590909090909, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9343896732646498, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 0.875, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-york-rangers/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:40.950611+00:00", "priorGP": 64, "currentTotalSOG": 14.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.012121212121212121, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.27 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.592, "currentIXG": 0.14472727272727273, "priorTOI": 11.963020833333333, "priorPPTOI": 0.038802083333333334, "deploymentChange": 3.2036458333333346, "ppTOIChange": -0.02668087121212121, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021119", "date": "20260323", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 15.216666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020063", "date": "20251016", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 11.166666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020505", "date": "20241217", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 6.05 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 0.3333333333333333, "opponentDefense": { "team": "OTT", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 255.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 25.5, "mostAllowedRank": 25, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.477120373069077, "pkSogAllowed60": 46.82395644283122, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 38.7, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 67.0, "C": 98.0, "R": 48.0, "L": 42.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.8, "L": 4.2, "R": 4.8, "D": 6.7 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 24.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 22.6, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 25.5, "oppPosSogAllowed": 4.2, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8477992", "team": "OTT", "name": "Jonas Johansson", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 0, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "goalsAllowed": null, "xGoalsAgainst": null, "shotsAgainst": null, "scenarioFactor": 1, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; no matching goalie statistics in this snapshot, so the goalie factor remains neutral.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T15:15:50.280Z", "idResolution": "Exact goalie name mapped to one unique MoneyPuck player ID" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.12765439968787715, "goalHistoryGoals": 16.0, "goalHistoryShots": 126.0, "goalExpected": 0.14663042586048308, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.14663042586048308, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.13638691249103999, "goalProbability": 0.13638691249103999, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.1486515640589239, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.446293494704992, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 13.01969696969697, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0025348542458808617, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.145909090909091, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.013044129508007835, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.09090909090909091, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9604171757553249, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9920036605974645, "Position_Factor": 0.9857697565791972, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 8.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3156.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.831254038471097, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 10.478645833333333, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.010589782775109, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.914848289218851, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.062091503267974, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.914848289218851, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9920036605974645, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.446293494704992, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021119", "date": "20260323", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 15.216666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020063", "date": "20251016", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 11.166666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020505", "date": "20241217", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 6.05 }, { "gameId": "2024020178", "date": "20241102", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 11.45 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 89, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477992", "goalieName": "Jonas Johansson", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8481789", "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 2, "log": [ { "gameId": "2023020133", "date": "20231030", "season": 2023, "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 2 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477992", "goalieName": "Jonas Johansson", "opponent": "NYR", "games": 4, "availableGames": 4, "shotsAgainst": 43.0, "goalsAgainst": 6.0, "savePct": 0.8604651162790697, "gaa": 2.615328732292045, "gsax": -1.567, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020391", "date": "20251129", "goalieTeam": "TBL", "opponent": "NYR", "shotsAgainst": 13.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.688 }, { "gameId": "2025020265", "date": "20251112", "goalieTeam": "TBL", "opponent": "NYR", "shotsAgainst": 7.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 993.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 0.748 }, { "gameId": "2024021310", "date": "20250417", "goalieTeam": "TBL", "opponent": "NYR", "shotsAgainst": 22.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3573.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.983 }, { "gameId": "2021020399", "date": "20211208", "goalieTeam": "COL", "opponent": "NYR", "shotsAgainst": 1.0, "goalsAgainst": 0.0, "seconds": 93.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 0.014 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.1486515640589239, "adjustedSOG": 1.1486515640589239, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.1720934327131876, "adjustedSOG": 1.1486515640589239, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.12765439968787715, "goalHistoryGoals": 16.0, "goalHistoryShots": 126.0, "goalExpected": 0.14962288353110517, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.14962288353110517, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.13896737521084834, "goalProbability": 0.13896737521084834, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12849894329460232, "modelSOG": 1.1486515640589239, "historyGames": 138, "seasonGames": { "2024": 63, "2025": 64, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 16.0, "historyShots": 126.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.12698412698412698, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.12765439968787715, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 47.05899829116175, "btb": { "id": "8481789", "name": "Tye Kartye", "score": 47.05899829116175, "components": { "Goal model": 51.16279069767442, "SOG model": 38.13953488372093, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 43.72093023255814, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 36.98246922790004, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": 0, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 251 } }, { "id": "8483808", "name": "Andrei Kuzmenko", "team": "PIT", "opponent": "NSH", "position": "L", "currentGP": 6, "currentSOG": 1.0, "priorSOG": 1.3269230769230769, "currentTOI": 12.486111111111112, "currentFiveTOI": 10.908333333333333, "ppShare": 0.3203952011291461, "rate": 1.268703234830791, "fifty": 1.1936818097921464, "inputs": { "Player": "Andrei Kuzmenko", "Player_ID": "8483808", "Team": "PIT", "Opponent": "NSH", "Position": "L", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.3413643065475223, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.4506160187057706, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 6, "Prior_GP": 52, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.583651642475172, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.252864089672793, "Current_PP_SOG60": 7.929515418502203, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 9.189001044204664, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 11.135737179487178, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 10.908333333333333, "Current_PP_Share": 0.3203952011291461, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.6481649276081111, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 454.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1417.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 2, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.130208333333334, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 2.1481522254517866, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 1.6436941307927548, "Other_State_SOG": 0.051923076923076926, "Environment_Proxy": 1.0738773444064478, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.3269230769230769, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/pittsburgh-penguins/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:40.968121+00:00", "priorGP": 52, "currentTotalSOG": 6.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.261111111111111, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.00 SOG/game in 6 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 6 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.587, "currentIXG": 0.09783333333333333, "priorTOI": 14.91570512820513, "priorPPTOI": 2.7625, "deploymentChange": -2.4295940170940167, "ppTOIChange": -1.501388888888889, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020137", "date": "20251025", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 18.433333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024021064", "date": "20250315", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 17.35 }, { "gameId": "2024020627", "date": "20250104", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 8.0, "toi": 10.833333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020451", "date": "20241210", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 16.35 }, { "gameId": "2024020269", "date": "20241115", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 14.166666666666666 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 5, "h2hSOG": 1.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "NSH", "games": 8, "sogAllowedTotal": 233.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 29.125, "mostAllowedRank": 8, "fiveSogAllowed60": 26.902173913043477, "pkSogAllowed60": 37.776914108045084, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 45.125, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 82.0, "L": 44.0, "D": 67.0, "R": 40.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.25, "L": 5.5, "R": 5.0, "D": 8.375 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 27.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 3, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 30.0, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 29.125, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.5, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8477424", "team": "NSH", "name": "Juuse Saros", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.9061032863849765, "gaa": 2.8192176670973805, "gsax": 1.6679999999999993, "goalsAllowed": 20.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 21.668, "shotsAgainst": 213.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9906396066739361, "factor": 0.9906396066739361, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T15:56:16.281Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.14281560560420814, "goalHistoryGoals": 24.0, "goalHistoryShots": 158.0, "goalExpected": 0.15167539720634182, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.1502556558306035, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.14073284400383357, "goalProbability": 0.13951204046206384, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.12208035417697327, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 6, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.062036579018453, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.583651642475172, "Current_PP_SOG60": 7.929515418502203, "Current_5v5_Min": 10.908333333333333, "Current_PP_Share": 0.3203952011291461, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.130208333333334, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.6436941307927548, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0235094259979116, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9053307495740243, "Position_Factor": 1.0017791101863063, "Input_GP": 6, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 454.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1417.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.252864089672793, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 9.189001044204664, "Prior_5v5_Min": 11.666346153846153, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.6481649276081111, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.038447744064271, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.062091503267974, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.038447744064271, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9053307495740243, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 4.583651642475172, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 7.929515418502203, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 4, "sogPerGame": 0.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 3.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020137", "date": "20251025", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 18.433333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024021064", "date": "20250315", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 17.35 }, { "gameId": "2024020627", "date": "20250104", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 8.0, "toi": 10.833333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020451", "date": "20241210", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 16.35 }, { "gameId": "2024020269", "date": "20241115", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 14.166666666666666 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-19T20:27:28.451Z", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 83, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 30, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477424", "goalieName": "Juuse Saros", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8483808", "goals": 3, "sog": 15, "shootingPct": 0.2, "gamesWithAttempts": 6, "recordedAttempts": 18, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020137", "date": "20251025", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 3 }, { "gameId": "2024020451", "date": "20241210", "season": 2024, "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2023020095", "date": "20231024", "season": 2023, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2022021010", "date": "20230306", "season": 2022, "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 5 }, { "gameId": "2022020914", "date": "20230221", "season": 2022, "goals": 2, "sog": 5, "attempts": 5 }, { "gameId": "2022020186", "date": "20221105", "season": 2022, "goals": 1, "sog": 3, "attempts": 3 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477424", "goalieName": "Juuse Saros", "opponent": "PIT", "games": 5, "availableGames": 13, "shotsAgainst": 131.0, "goalsAgainst": 15.0, "savePct": 0.8854961832061069, "gaa": 3.034219250435467, "gsax": -2.5649999999999995, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020296", "date": "20251116", "goalieTeam": "NSH", "opponent": "PIT", "shotsAgainst": 21.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3562.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.064 }, { "gameId": "2025020281", "date": "20251114", "goalieTeam": "NSH", "opponent": "PIT", "shotsAgainst": 17.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3637.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.622 }, { "gameId": "2024020830", "date": "20250201", "goalieTeam": "NSH", "opponent": "PIT", "shotsAgainst": 35.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3527.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.258 }, { "gameId": "2024020515", "date": "20241219", "goalieTeam": "NSH", "opponent": "PIT", "shotsAgainst": 20.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3657.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.863 }, { "gameId": "2023021289", "date": "20240415", "goalieTeam": "NSH", "opponent": "PIT", "shotsAgainst": 38.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3414.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.628 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.062036579018453, "adjustedSOG": 1.062036579018453, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.062036579018453, "adjustedSOG": 1.062036579018453, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.14281560560420814, "goalHistoryGoals": 24.0, "goalHistoryShots": 158.0, "goalExpected": 0.15167539720634182, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.1502556558306035, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.14073284400383357, "goalProbability": 0.13951204046206384, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.12208035417697327 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.128464262458857, "modelSOG": 1.062036579018453, "historyGames": 124, "seasonGames": { "2024": 66, "2025": 52, "2026": 6 }, "historyGoals": 24.0, "historyShots": 158.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.1518987341772152, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.14281560560420814, "goalieFactor": 0.9906396066739361, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 50.43470733905653, "btb": { "id": "8483808", "name": "Andrei Kuzmenko", "score": 50.43470733905653, "components": { "Goal model": 52.7906976744186, "SOG model": 33.72093023255814, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 35.116279069767444, "Goalie": 81.91176470588235, "Team H2H": 38.163620539599656, "Goalie H2H": 57.63173834039976 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 5, "goalieH2HShots": 15, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 197 } }, { "id": "8482089", "name": "Jake Neighbours", "team": "STL", "opponent": "CAR", "position": "L", "currentGP": 9, "currentSOG": 1.5555555555555556, "priorSOG": 1.2463768115942029, "currentTOI": 14.81851851851852, "currentFiveTOI": 11.435185185185185, "ppShare": 0.44962121212121214, "rate": 1.0828786327531605, "fifty": 1.1972851430279159, "inputs": { "Player": "Jake Neighbours", "Player_ID": "8482089", "Team": "STL", "Opponent": "CAR", "Position": "L", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.1818233565141731, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.2229110226426103, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 9, "Prior_GP": 69, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.080971659919029, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.87879366291277, "Current_PP_SOG60": 21.22999157540017, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 4.273504273504273, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 11.801006441223832, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 11.435185185185185, "Current_PP_Share": 0.44962121212121214, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.493290354812739, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1187.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2640.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 5, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.016414141414142, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 2.3212049582469785, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 2.255486206764616, "Other_State_SOG": 0.06521739130434782, "Environment_Proxy": 0.85, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.2463768115942029, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/st-louis-blues/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:40.986055+00:00", "priorGP": 69, "currentTotalSOG": 14.0, "currentPPTOI": 2.198148148148148, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.56 SOG/game in 9 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 9 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.812, "currentIXG": 0.20133333333333334, "priorTOI": 15.230193236714978, "priorPPTOI": 2.0347826086956524, "deploymentChange": -0.4116747181964584, "ppTOIChange": 0.16336553945249577, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021033", "date": "20260312", "team": "STL", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 12.766666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020730", "date": "20260113", "team": "STL", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 16.75 }, { "gameId": "2024020284", "date": "20241117", "team": "STL", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 17.416666666666668 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 1.6666666666666667, "opponentDefense": { "team": "CAR", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 246.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 22.363636363636363, "mostAllowedRank": 31, "fiveSogAllowed60": 21.75191064079953, "pkSogAllowed60": 32.87187039764359, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 33.09090909090909, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 77.0, "R": 66.0, "D": 59.0, "L": 44.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.0, "L": 4.0, "R": 6.0, "D": 5.363636363636363 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 23.0, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 7, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 22.428571428571427, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 22.363636363636363, "oppPosSogAllowed": 4.0, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8481611", "team": "CAR", "name": "Pyotr Kochetkov", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 6, "savePct": 0.8991596638655462, "gaa": 1.9842910293509715, "gsax": 2.2720000000000002, "goalsAllowed": 12.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 14.272, "shotsAgainst": 119.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9828959307519136, "factor": 0.9828959307519136, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T22:32:34.088Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.16409777681937354, "goalHistoryGoals": 40.0, "goalHistoryShots": 222.0, "goalExpected": 0.22492135611551342, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.22107428566514017, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.20142098035393372, "goalProbability": 0.19834287355462818, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.30781067993055355, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 9, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.3706544992568053, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.080971659919029, "Current_PP_SOG60": 21.22999157540017, "Current_5v5_Min": 11.435185185185185, "Current_PP_Share": 0.44962121212121214, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.016414141414142, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 2.255486206764616, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9235603264096603, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.85, "Position_Factor": 0.9950657537101978, "Input_GP": 9, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1187.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2640.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.87879366291277, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 4.273504273504273, "Prior_5v5_Min": 12.654589371980675, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.493290354812739, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.8900980663408036, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.062091503267974, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.8900980663408036, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.85, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 4.080971659919029, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 21.22999157540017, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021033", "date": "20260312", "team": "STL", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 12.766666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020730", "date": "20260113", "team": "STL", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 16.75 }, { "gameId": "2024020284", "date": "20241117", "team": "STL", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 17.416666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2024020084", "date": "20241019", "team": "STL", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 13.75 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 106, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 17, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481611", "goalieName": "Pyotr Kochetkov", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8482089", "goals": 2, "sog": 5, "shootingPct": 0.4, "gamesWithAttempts": 3, "recordedAttempts": 6, "log": [ { "gameId": "2024020284", "date": "20241117", "season": 2024, "goals": 1, "sog": 2, "attempts": 3 }, { "gameId": "2024020084", "date": "20241019", "season": 2024, "goals": 1, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2 }, { "gameId": "2022020369", "date": "20221201", "season": 2022, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481611", "goalieName": "Pyotr Kochetkov", "opponent": "STL", "games": 3, "availableGames": 3, "shotsAgainst": 60.0, "goalsAgainst": 6.0, "savePct": 0.9, "gaa": 2.610587382160986, "gsax": -0.46099999999999985, "log": [ { "gameId": "2024020284", "date": "20241117", "goalieTeam": "CAR", "opponent": "STL", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3598.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.005 }, { "gameId": "2024020084", "date": "20241019", "goalieTeam": "CAR", "opponent": "STL", "shotsAgainst": 19.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3476.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.804 }, { "gameId": "2022020369", "date": "20221201", "goalieTeam": "CAR", "opponent": "STL", "shotsAgainst": 11.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 1200.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 0.73 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.3706544992568053, "adjustedSOG": 1.3706544992568053, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.3706544992568053, "adjustedSOG": 1.3706544992568053, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.16409777681937354, "goalHistoryGoals": 40.0, "goalHistoryShots": 222.0, "goalExpected": 0.22492135611551342, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.22492135611551342, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.20142098035393372, "goalProbability": 0.20142098035393372, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1283948413583828, "modelSOG": 1.3706544992568053, "historyGames": 160, "seasonGames": { "2024": 82, "2025": 69, "2026": 9 }, "historyGoals": 40.0, "historyShots": 222.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.18018018018018017, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.16409777681937354, "goalieFactor": 0.9828959307519136, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 57.616705371320215, "btb": { "id": "8482089", "name": "Jake Neighbours", "score": 57.616705371320215, "components": { "Goal model": 72.55813953488372, "SOG model": 50.93023255813954, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 64.4186046511628, "Goalie": 50.14705882352941, "Team H2H": 58.31779186870571, "Goalie H2H": 53.54330708661417 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": 5, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 115 } }, { "id": "8478468", "name": "Jeremy Lauzon", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "CBJ", "position": "D", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 1.3636363636363635, "priorSOG": 1.0735294117647058, "currentTOI": 17.207575757575757, "currentFiveTOI": 15.390909090909092, "ppShare": 0.009037745879851143, "rate": 1.1330002349422448, "fifty": 1.2526251021231007, "inputs": { "Player": "Jeremy Lauzon", "Player_ID": "8478468", "Team": "VGK", "Opponent": "CBJ", "Position": "D", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.2342833207584492, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.4894170447995436, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 11, "Prior_GP": 68, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.31600708800945, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.048305871999218, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 15.285327540106952, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 15.390909090909092, "Current_PP_Share": 0.009037745879851143, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.004616043618601163, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 34.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3762.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 6, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.392708333333333, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.04158444233129377, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.04873792752082226, "Other_State_SOG": 0.052941176470588235, "Environment_Proxy": 1.0241190783267258, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.0735294117647058, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/vegas-golden-knights/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:41.004493+00:00", "priorGP": 68, "currentTotalSOG": 15.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.051515151515151514, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.36 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.481, "currentIXG": 0.043727272727272726, "priorTOI": 17.180882352941175, "priorPPTOI": 0.02107843137254902, "deploymentChange": 0.026693404634581697, "ppTOIChange": 0.030436720142602493, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020692", "date": "20260108", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 17.266666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020131", "date": "20241026", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 20.75 } ], "h2hGames": 2, "h2hAvailableGames": 2, "h2hSOG": 0.5, "opponentDefense": { "team": "CBJ", "games": 8, "sogAllowedTotal": 222.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.75, "mostAllowedRank": 13, "fiveSogAllowed60": 26.021128266541208, "pkSogAllowed60": 45.718967636214664, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 43.125, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 66.0, "D": 61.0, "R": 49.0, "L": 46.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 8.25, "L": 5.75, "R": 6.125, "D": 7.625 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 28.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.666666666666668, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.75, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.625, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8475660", "team": "CBJ", "name": "Cam Talbot", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 4, "savePct": 0.8674698795180723, "gaa": 3.3959351685104195, "gsax": -0.8840000000000003, "goalsAllowed": 11.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 10.116, "shotsAgainst": 83.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0106708091071457, "factor": 1.0106708091071457, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T15:32:32.146Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.0318312316216421, "goalHistoryGoals": 1.0, "goalHistoryShots": 113.0, "goalExpected": 0.04325505834068007, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.04371662481115192, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.04233290206694084, "goalProbability": 0.042774827092487915, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.044192502554707414, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.3588873611560446, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.31600708800945, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 15.390909090909092, "Current_PP_Share": 0.009037745879851143, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.392708333333333, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.04873792752082226, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0080456056426796, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9827600403123256, "Position_Factor": 1.0020745834802773, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 34.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3762.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.048305871999218, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 15.038970588235294, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.004616043618601163, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0168544879398973, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.34640522875817, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0168544879398973, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9827600403123256, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.31600708800945, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 0.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 1.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. 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Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475660", "goalieName": "Cam Talbot", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8478468", "goals": 1, "sog": 4, "shootingPct": 0.25, "gamesWithAttempts": 4, "recordedAttempts": 10, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020970", "date": "20260304", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 2 }, { "gameId": "2024020028", "date": "20241012", "season": 2024, "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2022020645", "date": "20230109", "season": 2022, "goals": 1, "sog": 3, "attempts": 4 }, { "gameId": "2021020110", "date": "20211028", "season": 2021, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 3 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475660", "goalieName": "Cam Talbot", "opponent": "VGK", "games": 5, "availableGames": 22, "shotsAgainst": 160.0, "goalsAgainst": 16.0, "savePct": 0.9, "gaa": 3.176704169424222, "gsax": 0.6329999999999996, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020970", "date": "20260304", "goalieTeam": "DET", "opponent": "VGK", "shotsAgainst": 25.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3728.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.397 }, { "gameId": "2024021115", "date": "20250322", "goalieTeam": "DET", "opponent": "VGK", "shotsAgainst": 35.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3491.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.784 }, { "gameId": "2023020544", "date": "20231228", "goalieTeam": "LAK", "opponent": "VGK", "shotsAgainst": 32.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3478.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.46 }, { "gameId": "2023020192", "date": "20231108", "goalieTeam": "LAK", "opponent": "VGK", "shotsAgainst": 38.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.55 }, { "gameId": "2023020125", "date": "20231028", "goalieTeam": "LAK", "opponent": "VGK", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3835.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.442 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.3588873611560446, "adjustedSOG": 1.3588873611560446, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.3866197562816782, "adjustedSOG": 1.3588873611560446, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.0318312316216421, "goalHistoryGoals": 1.0, "goalHistoryShots": 113.0, "goalExpected": 0.04413781463334702, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.04460880082770605, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.043177915698497334, "goalProbability": 0.04362845958235794, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.04505438838606074 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.057800523354097674, "modelSOG": 1.3588873611560446, "historyGames": 107, "seasonGames": { "2024": 28, "2025": 68, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 1.0, "historyShots": 113.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.008849557522123894, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.0318312316216421, "goalieFactor": 1.0106708091071457, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 34.047871415113974, "btb": { "id": "8478468", "name": "Jeremy Lauzon", "score": 34.047871415113974, "components": { "Goal model": 13.255813953488373, "SOG model": 50.23255813953488, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 3.488372093023256, "Goalie": 13.088235294117647, "Team H2H": 45.71366405570061, "Goalie H2H": 53.7037037037037 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 2, "goalieH2HShots": 4, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 415 } }, { "id": "8474151", "name": "Ryan McDonagh", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "UTA", "position": "D", "currentGP": 9, "currentSOG": 0.6666666666666666, "priorSOG": 0.8125, "currentTOI": 15.657407407407407, "currentFiveTOI": 12.466666666666667, "ppShare": 0.010217983651226158, "rate": 0.6329657056931306, "fifty": 0.5759940339996787, "inputs": { "Player": "Ryan McDonagh", "Player_ID": "8474151", "Team": "TBL", "Opponent": "UTA", "Position": "D", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 0.6483917966672583, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 0.48028614835729816, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 9, "Prior_GP": 48, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.6737967914438503, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.088872832369942, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 13.34, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 12.466666666666667, "Current_PP_Share": 0.010217983651226158, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.023578344834964963, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 30.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2936.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 5, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.626018518518518, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.06581016506751318, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.04726858159249167, "Other_State_SOG": 0.02986111111111111, "Environment_Proxy": 0.85, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 0.8125, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:41.021970+00:00", "priorGP": 48.0, "currentTotalSOG": 6.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.05555555555555555, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.67 SOG/game in 9 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 9 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.268, "currentIXG": 0.029777777777777778, "priorTOI": 19.256249999999998, "priorPPTOI": 0.11944444444444445, "deploymentChange": -3.5988425925925913, "ppTOIChange": -0.0638888888888889, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020194", "date": "20251102", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 21.916666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2024021145", "date": "20250327", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 19.016666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024021111", "date": "20250322", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 19.75 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 3, "h2hSOG": 1.6666666666666667, "opponentDefense": { "team": "UTA", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 225.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 22.5, "mostAllowedRank": 30, "fiveSogAllowed60": 21.06050814598143, "pkSogAllowed60": 53.47313237221494, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 35.6, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 58.0, "C": 87.0, "R": 52.0, "L": 28.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 8.7, "L": 2.8, "R": 5.2, "D": 5.8 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 22.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 20.25, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 22.5, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.8, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8478872", "team": "UTA", "name": "Karel Vejmelka", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 8, "savePct": 0.8793103448275862, "gaa": 2.8927833473635878, "gsax": -2.0919999999999987, "goalsAllowed": 21.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 18.908, "shotsAgainst": 174.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0222659253207917, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Likely starter per Daily Faceoff; no Model Goal adjustment until confirmed.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T17:11:59.953Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.07067508872168174, "goalHistoryGoals": 10.0, "goalHistoryShots": 123.0, "goalExpected": 0.04040259238589472, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.04040259238589472, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.03959728950809709, "goalProbability": 0.03959728950809709, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 9, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 0.5716666666666665, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.6737967914438503, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 12.466666666666667, "Current_PP_Share": 0.010217983651226158, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.626018518518518, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.04726858159249167, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.1111111111111111, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9114659361351877, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.05376529706562, "Position_Factor": 0.9944572953736655, "Input_GP": 9, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 30.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2936.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.088872832369942, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 15.377777777777778, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.023578344834964963, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.8947508896797154, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.34640522875817, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.8655955219784892, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.05376529706562, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 2.4489795918367347, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 2.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020194", "date": "20251102", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 21.916666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2024021145", "date": "20250327", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 19.016666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024021111", "date": "20250322", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 19.75 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "NHL.com projected lineup", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 68, "fitPct": -4.480149267383695, "index": 95.5198507326163, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 58.991596638655466, "opponentDeltaPct": -5.689070301576365, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 42 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 11.512605042016807, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.7770704564453013, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 2.3529411764705883, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.327351233427365, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 24.789915966386555, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.9245535697431251, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 13 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 1.1764705882352942, "opponentDeltaPct": -16.04971857561877, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 1.1764705882352942, "opponentDeltaPct": -20.1847447341527, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -4.480149267383695, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478872", "goalieName": "Karel Vejmelka", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8474151", "goals": 0, "sog": 10, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 4, "recordedAttempts": 12, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020194", "date": "20251102", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 3 }, { "gameId": "2024021111", "date": "20250322", "season": 2024, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2 }, { "gameId": "2022020851", "date": "20230213", "season": 2022, "goals": 0, "sog": 4, "attempts": 5 }, { "gameId": "2021020519", "date": "20220211", "season": 2021, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478872", "goalieName": "Karel Vejmelka", "opponent": "TBL", "games": 5, "availableGames": 6, "shotsAgainst": 128.0, "goalsAgainst": 18.0, "savePct": 0.859375, "gaa": 4.0538004379105415, "gsax": -5.162, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020825", "date": "20260126", "goalieTeam": "UTA", "opponent": "TBL", "shotsAgainst": 29.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.389 }, { "gameId": "2025020194", "date": "20251102", "goalieTeam": "UTA", "opponent": "TBL", "shotsAgainst": 25.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3527.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.366 }, { "gameId": "2024021145", "date": "20250327", "goalieTeam": "UTA", "opponent": "TBL", "shotsAgainst": 12.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 1754.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.834 }, { "gameId": "2024021111", "date": "20250322", "goalieTeam": "UTA", "opponent": "TBL", "shotsAgainst": 27.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.77 }, { "gameId": "2022020582", "date": "20221231", "goalieTeam": "ARI", "opponent": "TBL", "shotsAgainst": 35.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3504.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.479 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.5716666666666665, "adjustedSOG": 0.5716666666666665, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.5833333333333333, "adjustedSOG": 0.5716666666666665, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.07067508872168174, "goalHistoryGoals": 10.0, "goalHistoryShots": 123.0, "goalExpected": 0.04122713508764768, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.04122713508764768, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.040388856168673576, "goalProbability": 0.040388856168673576, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05760544784935029, "modelSOG": 0.5716666666666665, "historyGames": 139, "seasonGames": { "2024": 82, "2025": 48, "2026": 9 }, "historyGoals": 10.0, "historyShots": 123.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.08130081300813008, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.07067508872168174, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 36.141034204122434, "btb": { "id": "8474151", "name": "Ryan McDonagh", "score": 36.141034204122434, "components": { "Goal model": 10.465116279069768, "SOG model": 8.372093023255815, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 4.651162790697675, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 54.428600120506125, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Likely", "h2hGames": 3, "goalieH2HShots": 10, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 398 } }, { "id": "8477971", "name": "Andreas Englund", "team": "DET", "opponent": "CGY", "position": "D", "currentGP": 5, "currentSOG": 0.8, "priorSOG": 0.6666666666666666, "currentTOI": 11.433333333333334, "currentFiveTOI": 10.476666666666667, "ppShare": 0.0, "rate": 0.8048708235673586, "fifty": 0.8427733379538886, "inputs": { "Player": "Andreas Englund", "Player_ID": "8477971", "Team": "DET", "Opponent": "CGY", "Position": "D", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 0.6701121485643305, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 0.6097159840355438, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 5, "Prior_GP": 3, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.581609926821508, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.545454545454546, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 9.973666666666666, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 10.476666666666667, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0, "Prior_PP_Share": 0, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1817.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 2, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.430208333333333, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.0, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.0, "Other_State_SOG": 0.0, "Environment_Proxy": 1.096640755468006, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 0.6666666666666666, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:41.040629+00:00", "priorGP": 3, "currentTotalSOG": 4.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.0, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.80 SOG/game in 5 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 5 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.055, "currentIXG": 0.011, "priorTOI": 8.816666666666666, "priorPPTOI": 0, "deploymentChange": 2.616666666666667, "ppTOIChange": 0.0, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2024020681", "date": "20250111", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 8.8 }, { "gameId": "2024020242", "date": "20241111", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 9.016666666666667 } ], "h2hGames": 2, "h2hAvailableGames": 2, "h2hSOG": 0.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "CGY", "games": 8, "sogAllowedTotal": 237.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 29.625, "mostAllowedRank": 6, "fiveSogAllowed60": 29.8086265894977, "pkSogAllowed60": 38.789888106092, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.5, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 59.0, "C": 89.0, "R": 48.0, "L": 41.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 11.125, "L": 5.125, "R": 6.0, "D": 7.375 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 30.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.5, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 29.625, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.375, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8482445", "team": "CGY", "name": "Devin Cooley", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 3, "savePct": 0.8681318681318682, "gaa": 4.010025062656641, "gsax": -2.561, "goalsAllowed": 12.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 9.439, "shotsAgainst": 91.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0263021756310153, "factor": 1.0263021756310153, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T16:24:22.507Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.055024641250040626, "goalHistoryGoals": 1.0, "goalHistoryShots": 23.0, "goalExpected": 0.04321394686161652, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.044350567681680116, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.04229353014678092, "goalProbability": 0.0433814608604503, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.10879307136693814, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 5, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 0.7853562672993277, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.581609926821508, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 10.476666666666667, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.430208333333333, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.0, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0746225056341803, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9180727421999328, "Position_Factor": 0.9914347993653367, "Input_GP": 5, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1817.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.545454545454546, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 8.799999999999999, "Prior_PP_Share": 0, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0017299327797549, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.34640522875817, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0017299327797549, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9180727421999328, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 4.581609926821508, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2024020681", "date": "20250111", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 8.8 }, { "gameId": "2024020242", "date": "20241111", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 9.016666666666667 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Reviewed October22 projected lineup and coach reports", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482445", "goalieName": "Devin Cooley", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8477971", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482445", "goalieName": "Devin Cooley", "opponent": "DET", "games": 1, "availableGames": 1, "shotsAgainst": 29.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "savePct": 0.8620689655172413, "gaa": 4.1248925809223715, "gsax": -1.0219999999999998, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020477", "date": "20251210", "goalieTeam": "CGY", "opponent": "DET", "shotsAgainst": 29.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3491.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.978 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.7853562672993277, "adjustedSOG": 0.7853562672993277, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.8013839462238038, "adjustedSOG": 0.7853562672993277, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.055024641250040626, "goalHistoryGoals": 1.0, "goalHistoryShots": 23.0, "goalExpected": 0.044095864144506655, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.044095864144506655, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.04313777570238729, "goalProbability": 0.04313777570238729, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05768030873754997, "modelSOG": 0.7853562672993277, "historyGames": 43, "seasonGames": { "2024": 35, "2025": 3, "2026": 5 }, "historyGoals": 1.0, "historyShots": 23.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.043478260869565216, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.055024641250040626, "goalieFactor": 1.0263021756310153, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": 38.87253145839063, "btb": { "id": "8477971", "name": "Andreas Englund", "score": 38.87253145839063, "components": { "Goal model": 13.023255813953488, "SOG model": 16.976744186046513, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 16.74418604651163, "Goalie": 71.32352941176471, "Team H2H": 44.081810269799824, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 2, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 367 } }, { "id": "8479705", "name": "Jeffrey Viel", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "UTA", "position": "L", "currentGP": 7, "currentSOG": 0.8571428571428571, "priorSOG": 1.3777777777777778, "currentTOI": 9.495238095238095, "currentFiveTOI": 9.397619047619047, "ppShare": 0.012234910277324634, "rate": 1.0394579419029442, "fifty": 0.9190265084999079, "inputs": { "Player": "Jeffrey Viel", "Player_ID": "8479705", "Team": "TBL", "Opponent": "UTA", "Position": "L", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.0784426838818744, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.1483815773293378, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 7, "Prior_GP": 45, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.47251076767165, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.689091782796733, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 28.72340425531915, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 10.046666666666665, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 9.397619047619047, "Current_PP_Share": 0.012234910277324634, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.02659476281908626, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 30.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2452.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 4, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.626018518518518, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.07652760464973164, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.05659892151531629, "Other_State_SOG": 0.02, "Environment_Proxy": 0.85, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.3777777777777778, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:41.056969+00:00", "priorGP": 45.0, "currentTotalSOG": 6.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.07142857142857142, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.86 SOG/game in 7 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 7 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.633, "currentIXG": 0.09042857142857143, "priorTOI": 11.93, "priorPPTOI": 0.13925925925925925, "deploymentChange": -2.4347619047619045, "ppTOIChange": -0.06783068783068782, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021098", "date": "20260320", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 15.0 } ], "h2hGames": 1, "h2hAvailableGames": 1, "h2hSOG": 0.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "UTA", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 225.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 22.5, "mostAllowedRank": 30, "fiveSogAllowed60": 21.06050814598143, "pkSogAllowed60": 53.47313237221494, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 35.6, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 58.0, "C": 87.0, "R": 52.0, "L": 28.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 8.7, "L": 2.8, "R": 5.2, "D": 5.8 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 22.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 20.25, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 22.5, "oppPosSogAllowed": 2.8, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8478872", "team": "UTA", "name": "Karel Vejmelka", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 8, "savePct": 0.8793103448275862, "gaa": 2.8927833473635878, "gsax": -2.0919999999999987, "goalsAllowed": 21.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 18.908, "shotsAgainst": 174.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0222659253207917, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Likely starter per Daily Faceoff; no Model Goal adjustment until confirmed.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T17:11:59.953Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.09272036259019564, "goalHistoryGoals": 3.0, "goalHistoryShots": 71.0, "goalExpected": 0.06620233888939969, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.06620233888939969, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.064058532226008, "goalProbability": 0.064058532226008, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 7, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 0.7140000000000001, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.47251076767165, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 9.397619047619047, "Current_PP_Share": 0.012234910277324634, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.626018518518518, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.05659892151531629, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9114659361351877, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.05376529706562, "Position_Factor": 0.958692704970949, "Input_GP": 7, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 30.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2452.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.689091782796733, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 28.72340425531915, "Prior_5v5_Min": 11.561111111111112, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.02659476281908626, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.85, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.062091503267974, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.8169770438036089, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.05376529706562, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 6.811731315042573, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 0.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021098", "date": "20260320", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 15.0 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "NHL.com projected lineup", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 11, "priorAttempts": 94, "fitPct": -6.10076520654637, "index": 93.89923479345363, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 10.56092843326886, "opponentDeltaPct": -5.689070301576365, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 12 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 18.568665377176014, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.7770704564453013, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 18 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 50.174081237911025, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.327351233427365, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 41 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 11.83752417794971, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.9245535697431251, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 15 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 2.127659574468085, "opponentDeltaPct": -16.04971857561877, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 6.731141199226305, "opponentDeltaPct": -20.1847447341527, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 3 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -6.10076520654637, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478872", "goalieName": "Karel Vejmelka", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8479705", "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 2, "log": [ { "gameId": "2021021072", "date": "20220330", "season": 2021, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478872", "goalieName": "Karel Vejmelka", "opponent": "TBL", "games": 5, "availableGames": 6, "shotsAgainst": 128.0, "goalsAgainst": 18.0, "savePct": 0.859375, "gaa": 4.0538004379105415, "gsax": -5.162, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020825", "date": "20260126", "goalieTeam": "UTA", "opponent": "TBL", "shotsAgainst": 29.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.389 }, { "gameId": "2025020194", "date": "20251102", "goalieTeam": "UTA", "opponent": "TBL", "shotsAgainst": 25.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3527.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.366 }, { "gameId": "2024021145", "date": "20250327", "goalieTeam": "UTA", "opponent": "TBL", "shotsAgainst": 12.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 1754.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.834 }, { "gameId": "2024021111", "date": "20250322", "goalieTeam": "UTA", "opponent": "TBL", "shotsAgainst": 27.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.77 }, { "gameId": "2022020582", "date": "20221231", "goalieTeam": "ARI", "opponent": "TBL", "shotsAgainst": 35.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3504.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.479 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.7140000000000001, "adjustedSOG": 0.7140000000000001, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.7285714285714286, "adjustedSOG": 0.7140000000000001, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.09272036259019564, "goalHistoryGoals": 3.0, "goalHistoryShots": 71.0, "goalExpected": 0.06755340702999969, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.06755340702999969, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.06532219908234567, "goalProbability": 0.06532219908234567, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12855182002923454, "modelSOG": 0.7140000000000001, "historyGames": 57, "seasonGames": { "2024": 5, "2025": 45, "2026": 7 }, "historyGoals": 3.0, "historyShots": 71.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.04225352112676056, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.09272036259019564, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 40.55075099774231, "btb": { "id": "8479705", "name": "Jeffrey Viel", "score": 40.55075099774231, "components": { "Goal model": 22.790697674418606, "SOG model": 13.488372093023257, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 29.53488372093023, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 49.098029907429385, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Likely", "h2hGames": 1, "goalieH2HShots": 2, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 343 } }, { "id": "8482259", "name": "Bobby McMann", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "position": "L", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 2.7, "priorSOG": 2.3461538461538463, "currentTOI": 16.55166666666667, "currentFiveTOI": 13.86, "ppShare": 0.4346368715083799, "rate": 2.4026894345868883, "fifty": 2.5880204178951236, "inputs": { "Player": "Bobby McMann", "Player_ID": "8482259", "Team": "SEA", "Opponent": "MIN", "Position": "C", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 2.9654827807423105, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 3.6239980338474163, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 10, "Prior_GP": 78, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 9.090909090909092, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 8.171920968922208, "Current_PP_SOG60": 18.508997429305914, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 12.303485987696513, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 13.994371794871793, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 13.86, "Current_PP_Share": 0.4346368715083799, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.2252813246690618, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1167.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2685.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 6, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.085, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 1.8907566049167317, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 2.210128491620112, "Other_State_SOG": 0.17307692307692307, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9620662188708584, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 2.3461538461538463, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/seattle-kraken/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:41.074909+00:00", "priorGP": 78, "currentTotalSOG": 27.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.9449999999999998, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.70 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 2.816, "currentIXG": 0.28159999999999996, "priorTOI": 15.931410256410258, "priorPPTOI": 0.9378205128205129, "deploymentChange": 0.6202564102564114, "ppTOIChange": 1.0071794871794868, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021240", "date": "20260407", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 8.0, "toi": 18.433333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020774", "date": "20260119", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 12.383333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020807", "date": "20250129", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "home", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 13.0, "toi": 22.066666666666666 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 2.3333333333333335, "opponentDefense": { "team": "MIN", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 261.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 26.1, "mostAllowedRank": 21, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.40367597004765, "pkSogAllowed60": 45.30289727831431, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 40.4, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 77.0, "C": 114.0, "R": 29.0, "L": 41.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 11.4, "L": 4.1, "R": 2.9, "D": 7.7 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 24.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 28.333333333333332, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 26.1, "oppPosSogAllowed": 4.1, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8482661", "team": "MIN", "name": "Jesper Wallstedt", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 9, "savePct": 0.9152542372881356, "gaa": 2.1979363819525, "gsax": 6.934999999999999, "goalsAllowed": 20.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 26.935, "shotsAgainst": 236.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9495343259526882, "factor": 0.9495343259526882, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T18:37:27.914Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.13537948924170218, "goalHistoryGoals": 52.0, "goalHistoryShots": 379.0, "goalExpected": 0.34726197202887144, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.3297371625394357, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.29337981071643615, "goalProbability": 0.28088728164456844, "goalAdjustmentPP": -1.2492529071867708, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 2.5651003263048295, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 9.090909090909092, "Current_PP_SOG60": 18.508997429305914, "Current_5v5_Min": 13.86, "Current_PP_Share": 0.4346368715083799, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.085, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 2.210128491620112, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.957587153238364, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9748801923935355, "Position_Factor": 0.9806465795507668, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1167.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2685.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 8.171920968922208, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 12.303485987696513, "Prior_5v5_Min": 14.307905982905982, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.2252813246690618, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9049709489993545, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.062091503267974, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9049709489993545, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9748801923935355, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 9.090909090909092, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 18.508997429305914, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 3.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021240", "date": "20260407", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 8.0, "toi": 18.433333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020774", "date": "20260119", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 12.383333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020807", "date": "20250129", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "home", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 13.0, "toi": 22.066666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020189", "date": "20241103", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 13.166666666666666 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 226, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 20, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482661", "goalieName": "Jesper Wallstedt", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8482259", "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 5, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021240", "date": "20260407", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 5 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482661", "goalieName": "Jesper Wallstedt", "opponent": "SEA", "games": 2, "availableGames": 2, "shotsAgainst": 55.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "savePct": 0.9272727272727272, "gaa": 1.9647973802701597, "gsax": 2.874, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021240", "date": "20260407", "goalieTeam": "MIN", "opponent": "SEA", "shotsAgainst": 27.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.053 }, { "gameId": "2025020693", "date": "20260108", "goalieTeam": "MIN", "opponent": "SEA", "shotsAgainst": 28.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3729.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.821 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 2.5651003263048295, "adjustedSOG": 2.5651003263048295, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 2.5651003263048295, "adjustedSOG": 2.5651003263048295, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.13537948924170218, "goalHistoryGoals": 52.0, "goalHistoryShots": 379.0, "goalExpected": 0.34726197202887144, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.34726197202887144, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.29337981071643615, "goalProbability": 0.29337981071643615, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12846775346775346, "modelSOG": 2.5651003263048295, "historyGames": 162, "seasonGames": { "2024": 74, "2025": 78, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 52.0, "historyShots": 379.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.13720316622691292, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.13537948924170218, "goalieFactor": 0.9495343259526882, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 59.04963928475407, "btb": { "id": "8482259", "name": "Bobby McMann", "score": 59.04963928475407, "components": { "Goal model": 90.46511627906976, "SOG model": 88.6046511627907, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 81.16279069767442, "Goalie": 23.676470588235293, "Team H2H": 40.22752704214845, "Goalie H2H": 50.08328285887341 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": 2, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 97 } }, { "id": "8482700", "name": "Nolan Allan", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "BOS", "position": "D", "currentGP": 5, "currentSOG": 1.0, "priorSOG": null, "currentTOI": 16.663333333333334, "currentFiveTOI": 13.993333333333334, "ppShare": 0.0, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:41.076921+00:00", "priorGP": null, "currentTotalSOG": 5.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.0, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.00 SOG/game in 5 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 5 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.371, "currentIXG": 0.0742, "priorTOI": null, "priorPPTOI": null, "deploymentChange": null, "ppTOIChange": null, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2024020407", "date": "20241204", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 13.85 } ], "h2hGames": 1, "h2hAvailableGames": 1, "h2hSOG": 0.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "BOS", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 280.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 28.0, "mostAllowedRank": 11, "fiveSogAllowed60": 26.539776154413243, "pkSogAllowed60": 48.89206576125804, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 42.4, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 68.0, "R": 50.0, "L": 68.0, "C": 94.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.4, "L": 6.8, "R": 5.0, "D": 6.8 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 26.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 25.0, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 28.0, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.8, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8480280", "team": "BOS", "name": "Jeremy Swayman", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 8, "savePct": 0.9279279279279279, "gaa": 1.976189659313137, "gsax": 7.695, "goalsAllowed": 16.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 23.695, "shotsAgainst": 222.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9412127550171275, "factor": 0.9412127550171275, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T14:59:19.712Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.06365235021672802, "goalHistoryGoals": 2.0, "goalHistoryShots": 22.0, "goalExpected": 0.06052346344422404, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.056965455771516516, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.05872831671633744, "goalProbability": 0.05537329979652001, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.3355016919817433, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 5, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 0.9508441281138791, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.430204859456884, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 13.993333333333334, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.0425, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.0, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.2, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0194233133624404, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.013580746919003, "Position_Factor": 0.9875428952719878, "Input_GP": 5, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1736.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": null, "Prior_PP_SOG60": null, "Prior_5v5_Min": null, "Prior_PP_Share": null, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9628113879003559, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.34640522875817, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9628113879003559, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.013580746919003, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 3.430204859456884, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 0.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2024020407", "date": "20241204", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 13.85 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Reviewed October22 projected lineup and coach reports", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 1, "playerPriorWeight": 0, "currentSeasonOnly": true }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 1, "playerPriorWeight": 0, "currentSeasonOnly": true }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480280", "goalieName": "Jeremy Swayman", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8482700", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480280", "goalieName": "Jeremy Swayman", "opponent": "SJS", "games": 5, "availableGames": 6, "shotsAgainst": 123.0, "goalsAgainst": 9.0, "savePct": 0.926829268292683, "gaa": 2.2632020117351215, "gsax": 2.58, "log": [ { "gameId": "2026020105", "date": "20261013", "goalieTeam": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "shotsAgainst": 38.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.146 }, { "gameId": "2025021027", "date": "20260312", "goalieTeam": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "shotsAgainst": 28.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3406.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.91 }, { "gameId": "2025020351", "date": "20251123", "goalieTeam": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3588.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.577 }, { "gameId": "2023020340", "date": "20231130", "goalieTeam": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "shotsAgainst": 26.0, "goalsAgainst": 0.0, "seconds": 3574.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.886 }, { "gameId": "2022020748", "date": "20230122", "goalieTeam": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "shotsAgainst": 1.0, "goalsAgainst": 0.0, "seconds": 148.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 0.061 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.9508441281138791, "adjustedSOG": 0.9508441281138791, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.9702491103202848, "adjustedSOG": 0.9508441281138791, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.06365235021672802, "goalHistoryGoals": 2.0, "goalHistoryShots": 22.0, "goalExpected": 0.06175863616757555, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.0581280160933842, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.05989023209397876, "goalProbability": 0.056470847211000125, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.3419384882978632 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05765586726440819, "modelSOG": 0.9508441281138791, "historyGames": 48, "seasonGames": { "2024": 43, "2026": 5 }, "historyGoals": 2.0, "historyShots": 22.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.09090909090909091, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.06365235021672802, "goalieFactor": 0.9412127550171275, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": 39.25913140000838, "btb": { "id": "8482700", "name": "Nolan Allan", "score": 39.25913140000838, "components": { "Goal model": 20.232558139534884, "SOG model": 24.88372093023256, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 32.093023255813954, "Goalie": 34.26470588235294, "Team H2H": 48.88440541182055, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 1, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 362 } }, { "id": "8482705", "name": "Cole Sillinger", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "VGK", "position": "L", "currentGP": 8, "currentSOG": 1.5, "priorSOG": 1.6790123456790123, "currentTOI": 14.983333333333333, "currentFiveTOI": 13.002083333333333, "ppShare": 0.07408923454768727, "rate": 1.4995245528860275, "fifty": 1.47122083231897, "inputs": { "Player": "Cole Sillinger", "Player_ID": "8482705", "Team": "CBJ", "Opponent": "VGK", "Position": "C", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.5015162709886192, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.6545864497708755, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 8, "Prior_GP": 81, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 6.345136997276078, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.3195169564625235, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 10.867924528301886, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 13.180532407407407, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 13.002083333333333, "Current_PP_Share": 0.07408923454768727, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.06294204986586076, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 181.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2443.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 4, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.052367424242425, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.28668505414511, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.3002368005681043, "Other_State_SOG": 0.15694444444444444, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9217353117054976, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.6790123456790123, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:41.094229+00:00", "priorGP": 81, "currentTotalSOG": 12.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.3770833333333333, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.50 SOG/game in 8 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 8 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 2.527, "currentIXG": 0.315875, "priorTOI": 15.22098765432099, "priorPPTOI": 0.2726337448559671, "deploymentChange": -0.23765432098765693, "ppTOIChange": 0.10444958847736624, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020692", "date": "20260108", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 13.95 }, { "gameId": "2025020502", "date": "20251213", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 14.583333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020820", "date": "20250130", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 15.9 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 3, "h2hSOG": 1.3333333333333333, "opponentDefense": { "team": "VGK", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 275.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 25.0, "mostAllowedRank": 27, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.585792714368043, "pkSogAllowed60": 47.03517587939699, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 38.72727272727273, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 59.0, "C": 80.0, "R": 61.0, "L": 75.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.2727272727272725, "L": 6.818181818181818, "R": 5.545454545454546, "D": 5.363636363636363 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 26.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 25.75, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 25.0, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.818181818181818, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8479394", "team": "VGK", "name": "Carter Hart", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.8876404494382022, "gaa": 2.8716148845371516, "gsax": -1.5090000000000003, "goalsAllowed": 20.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 18.491, "shotsAgainst": 178.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.017200797231895, "factor": 1.017200797231895, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T22:33:02.238Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.09247178426076788, "goalHistoryGoals": 22.0, "goalHistoryShots": 277.0, "goalExpected": 0.15777998189493517, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.16049392337076201, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.14596233495239794, "goalProbability": 0.14827700083889464, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.2314665886496703, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 8, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.7062499999999998, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 6.345136997276078, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 13.002083333333333, "Current_PP_Share": 0.07408923454768727, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.052367424242425, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.3002368005681043, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.125, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9589471960166247, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9956874166464801, "Position_Factor": 1.05, "Input_GP": 8, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 181.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2443.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.3195169564625235, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 10.867924528301886, "Prior_5v5_Min": 13.596913580246913, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.06294204986586076, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.15, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.062091503267974, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9956874166464801, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 6.489994591671174, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 1.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020692", "date": "20260108", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 13.95 }, { "gameId": "2025020502", "date": "20251213", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 14.583333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020820", "date": "20250130", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 15.9 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "NHL.com October 20 game-specific projected lineup", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 166, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 8, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479394", "goalieName": "Carter Hart", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8482705", "goals": 0, "sog": 6, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 4, "recordedAttempts": 7, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020502", "date": "20251213", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2 }, { "gameId": "2023020011", "date": "20231012", "season": 2023, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2 }, { "gameId": "2022020250", "date": "20221115", "season": 2022, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2 }, { "gameId": "2021021118", "date": "20220405", "season": 2021, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479394", "goalieName": "Carter Hart", "opponent": "CBJ", "games": 5, "availableGames": 11, "shotsAgainst": 128.0, "goalsAgainst": 11.0, "savePct": 0.9140625, "gaa": 2.6073215696602583, "gsax": 0.11300000000000043, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020692", "date": "20260108", "goalieTeam": "VGK", "opponent": "CBJ", "shotsAgainst": 1.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 504.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 0.415 }, { "gameId": "2025020502", "date": "20251213", "goalieTeam": "VGK", "opponent": "CBJ", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.064 }, { "gameId": "2023020011", "date": "20231012", "goalieTeam": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "shotsAgainst": 33.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.608 }, { "gameId": "2022021287", "date": "20230411", "goalieTeam": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "shotsAgainst": 31.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3884.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.732 }, { "gameId": "2022020510", "date": "20221220", "goalieTeam": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "shotsAgainst": 33.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.294 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.7062499999999998, "adjustedSOG": 1.7062499999999998, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.7062499999999998, "adjustedSOG": 1.7062499999999998, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.09247178426076788, "goalHistoryGoals": 22.0, "goalHistoryShots": 277.0, "goalExpected": 0.15777998189493517, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.15777998189493517, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.14596233495239794, "goalProbability": 0.14596233495239794, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12861862666309493, "modelSOG": 1.7062499999999998, "historyGames": 155, "seasonGames": { "2024": 66, "2025": 81, "2026": 8 }, "historyGoals": 22.0, "historyShots": 277.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.07942238267148015, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.09247178426076788, "goalieFactor": 1.017200797231895, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 52.54960032996, "btb": { "id": "8482705", "name": "Cole Sillinger", "score": 52.54960032996, "components": { "Goal model": 54.18604651162791, "SOG model": 65.34883720930233, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 84.4186046511628, "Goalie": 18.38235294117647, "Team H2H": 56.597710383611165, "Goalie H2H": 46.75196850393701 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 3, "goalieH2HShots": 6, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 179 } }, { "id": "8473986", "name": "Alex Killorn", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "PHI", "position": "L", "currentGP": 9, "currentSOG": 1.7777777777777777, "priorSOG": 1.8048780487804879, "currentTOI": 16.162962962962965, "currentFiveTOI": 12.012962962962963, "ppShare": 0.17426381605486083, "rate": 1.9404357794016225, "fifty": 1.9577848724509297, "inputs": { "Player": "Alex Killorn", "Player_ID": "8473986", "Team": "ANA", "Opponent": "PHI", "Position": "L", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.74942657785249, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.796629950676494, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 9, "Prior_GP": 82, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 7.769384923693541, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.846974630089294, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 4.078164825828377, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 12.192122854561878, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 12.012962962962963, "Current_PP_Share": 0.17426381605486083, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.2741161674973217, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 432.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2479.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 5, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.388425925925926, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 1.1004217641639655, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.9390076643807986, "Other_State_SOG": 0.2307588075880759, "Environment_Proxy": 1.15, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.8048780487804879, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/anaheim-ducks/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:41.111200+00:00", "priorGP": 82, "currentTotalSOG": 16.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.8, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.78 SOG/game in 9 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 9 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.103, "currentIXG": 0.12255555555555556, "priorTOI": 16.704878048780486, "priorPPTOI": 1.4353658536585365, "deploymentChange": -0.5419150858175215, "ppTOIChange": -0.6353658536585365, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021082", "date": "20260318", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 20.016666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020670", "date": "20260106", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 15.033333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020675", "date": "20250111", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 17.866666666666667 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 1.6666666666666667, "opponentDefense": { "team": "PHI", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 383.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 31.916666666666668, "mostAllowedRank": 2, "fiveSogAllowed60": 31.042564889030356, "pkSogAllowed60": 46.879209699146834, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.75, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 113.0, "C": 130.0, "R": 73.0, "L": 67.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.833333333333334, "L": 5.583333333333333, "R": 6.083333333333333, "D": 9.416666666666666 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 27.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.833333333333332, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 31.916666666666668, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.583333333333333, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8479361", "team": "PHI", "name": "Joseph Woll", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 6, "savePct": 0.9166666666666666, "gaa": 2.640143007746253, "gsax": 4.5710000000000015, "goalsAllowed": 16.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 20.571, "shotsAgainst": 192.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9655996195755495, "factor": 0.9655996195755495, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T14:50:13.988Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.12274314440316865, "goalHistoryGoals": 36.0, "goalHistoryShots": 298.0, "goalExpected": 0.22435520378421686, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.2166372994238347, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.20096873497242784, "goalProbability": 0.19477802918000114, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.6190705792426698, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 9, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.827843052865648, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 7.769384923693541, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 12.012962962962963, "Current_PP_Share": 0.17426381605486083, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.388425925925926, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.9390076643807986, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.2222222222222222, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.1165260841882552, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9915761915723407, "Position_Factor": 0.9919806918148306, "Input_GP": 9, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 432.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2479.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.846974630089294, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 4.078164825828377, "Prior_5v5_Min": 12.610162601626016, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.2741161674973217, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0561652679147837, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.062091503267974, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0561652679147837, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9915761915723407, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 7.769384923693541, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021082", "date": "20260318", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 20.016666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020670", "date": "20260106", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 15.033333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020675", "date": "20250111", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 17.866666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020568", "date": "20241228", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 18.083333333333332 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "ppAssignmentSourceDate": "2026-10-13T16:34:52.608Z", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. 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Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479361", "goalieName": "Joseph Woll", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8473986", "goals": 2, "sog": 7, "shootingPct": 0.2857142857142857, "gamesWithAttempts": 3, "recordedAttempts": 9, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021029", "date": "20260312", "season": 2025, "goals": 1, "sog": 3, "attempts": 4 }, { "gameId": "2024021176", "date": "20250330", "season": 2024, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2 }, { "gameId": "2022021289", "date": "20230411", "season": 2022, "goals": 1, "sog": 3, "attempts": 3 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479361", "goalieName": "Joseph Woll", "opponent": "ANA", "games": 3, "availableGames": 3, "shotsAgainst": 91.0, "goalsAgainst": 7.0, "savePct": 0.9230769230769231, "gaa": 2.6359832635983262, "gsax": 2.575, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021029", "date": "20260312", "goalieTeam": "TOR", "opponent": "ANA", "shotsAgainst": 40.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3567.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.449 }, { "gameId": "2024021176", "date": "20250330", "goalieTeam": "TOR", "opponent": "ANA", "shotsAgainst": 31.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3593.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.338 }, { "gameId": "2024020459", "date": "20241212", "goalieTeam": "TOR", "opponent": "ANA", "shotsAgainst": 20.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 2400.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.788 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.827843052865648, "adjustedSOG": 1.827843052865648, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.8651459723118857, "adjustedSOG": 1.827843052865648, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.12274314440316865, "goalHistoryGoals": 36.0, "goalHistoryShots": 298.0, "goalExpected": 0.22893388141246618, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.22105846879983132, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.204618878757151, "goalProbability": 0.1983301937515582, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.628868500559282 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12851771472461126, "modelSOG": 1.827843052865648, "historyGames": 173, "seasonGames": { "2024": 82, "2025": 82, "2026": 9 }, "historyGoals": 36.0, "historyShots": 298.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.12080536912751678, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.12274314440316865, "goalieFactor": 0.9655996195755495, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 52.96323615126246, "btb": { "id": "8473986", "name": "Alex Killorn", "score": 52.96323615126246, "components": { "Goal model": 72.32558139534883, "SOG model": 69.06976744186046, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 37.44186046511628, "Goalie": 28.970588235294116, "Team H2H": 52.57366654233495, "Goalie H2H": 55.173366487083854 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": 7, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 172 } }, { "id": "8482745", "name": "Mason McTavish", "team": "STL", "opponent": "CAR", "position": "C", "currentGP": 9, "currentSOG": 3.2222222222222223, "priorSOG": 1.9466666666666668, "currentTOI": 15.872222222222222, "currentFiveTOI": 12.683333333333334, "ppShare": 0.5, "rate": 1.8352514688826, "fifty": 2.198052097278353, "inputs": { "Player": "Mason McTavish", "Player_ID": "8482745", "Team": "STL", "Opponent": "CAR", "Position": "C", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 2.1374530289329043, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 2.604938287217148, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 9, "Prior_GP": 75, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 9.986859395532194, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.712401055408971, "Current_PP_SOG60": 21.818181818181817, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 10.85343228200371, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 12.668333333333331, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 12.683333333333334, "Current_PP_Share": 0.5, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.3659892040720211, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1320.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2640.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 5, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.016414141414142, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 2.3065309751684873, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 2.508207070707071, "Other_State_SOG": 0.19022222222222224, "Environment_Proxy": 0.85, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.9466666666666668, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/st-louis-blues/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:41.128419+00:00", "priorGP": 75, "currentTotalSOG": 29.0, "currentPPTOI": 2.4444444444444446, "volumeNote": "Observed 3.22 SOG/game in 9 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 9 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 4.7299999999999995, "currentIXG": 0.5255555555555556, "priorTOI": 15.319777777777778, "priorPPTOI": 1.9164444444444442, "deploymentChange": 0.5524444444444434, "ppTOIChange": 0.5280000000000005, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020688", "date": "20260108", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 15.966666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020070", "date": "20251016", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 18.716666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2024021123", "date": "20250323", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 20.8 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 2.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "CAR", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 246.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 22.363636363636363, "mostAllowedRank": 31, "fiveSogAllowed60": 21.75191064079953, "pkSogAllowed60": 32.87187039764359, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 33.09090909090909, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 77.0, "R": 66.0, "D": 59.0, "L": 44.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.0, "L": 4.0, "R": 6.0, "D": 5.363636363636363 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 23.0, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 7, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 22.428571428571427, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 22.363636363636363, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.0, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8481611", "team": "CAR", "name": "Pyotr Kochetkov", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 6, "savePct": 0.8991596638655462, "gaa": 1.9842910293509715, "gsax": 2.2720000000000002, "goalsAllowed": 12.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 14.272, "shotsAgainst": 119.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9828959307519136, "factor": 0.9828959307519136, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T22:32:34.088Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.12494762368234381, "goalHistoryGoals": 44.0, "goalHistoryShots": 355.0, "goalExpected": 0.35272122785709076, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.34668825955055305, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.29722692037045495, "goalProbability": 0.292974297583563, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.4252622786891924, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 9, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 2.8229526697828136, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 9.986859395532194, "Current_PP_SOG60": 21.818181818181817, "Current_5v5_Min": 12.683333333333334, "Current_PP_Share": 0.5, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.016414141414142, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 2.508207070707071, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.2222222222222222, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9235603264096603, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.85, "Position_Factor": 0.9873314343303702, "Input_GP": 9, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1320.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2640.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.712401055408971, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 10.85343228200371, "Prior_5v5_Min": 12.633333333333333, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.3659892040720211, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.8646946313151299, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.437908496732026, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.8646946313151299, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.85, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 9.986859395532194, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 21.818181818181817, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020688", "date": "20260108", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 15.966666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020070", "date": "20251016", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 18.716666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2024021123", "date": "20250323", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 20.8 }, { "gameId": "2024020687", "date": "20250112", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 13.333333333333334 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 192, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 45, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481611", "goalieName": "Pyotr Kochetkov", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8482745", "goals": 0, "sog": 5, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 2, "recordedAttempts": 7, "log": [ { "gameId": "2024020687", "date": "20250112", "season": 2024, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2 }, { "gameId": "2022020410", "date": "20221206", "season": 2022, "goals": 0, "sog": 4, "attempts": 5 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481611", "goalieName": "Pyotr Kochetkov", "opponent": "STL", "games": 3, "availableGames": 3, "shotsAgainst": 60.0, "goalsAgainst": 6.0, "savePct": 0.9, "gaa": 2.610587382160986, "gsax": -0.46099999999999985, "log": [ { "gameId": "2024020284", "date": "20241117", "goalieTeam": "CAR", "opponent": "STL", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3598.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.005 }, { "gameId": "2024020084", "date": "20241019", "goalieTeam": "CAR", "opponent": "STL", "shotsAgainst": 19.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3476.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.804 }, { "gameId": "2022020369", "date": "20221201", "goalieTeam": "CAR", "opponent": "STL", "shotsAgainst": 11.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 1200.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 0.73 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 2.8229526697828136, "adjustedSOG": 2.8229526697828136, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 2.8229526697828136, "adjustedSOG": 2.8229526697828136, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.12494762368234381, "goalHistoryGoals": 44.0, "goalHistoryShots": 355.0, "goalExpected": 0.35272122785709076, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.35272122785709076, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.29722692037045495, "goalProbability": 0.29722692037045495, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12851168775466437, "modelSOG": 2.8229526697828136, "historyGames": 160, "seasonGames": { "2024": 76, "2025": 75, "2026": 9 }, "historyGoals": 44.0, "historyShots": 355.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.12394366197183099, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.12494762368234381, "goalieFactor": 0.9828959307519136, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 63.13949775567212, "btb": { "id": "8482745", "name": "Mason McTavish", "score": 63.13949775567212, "components": { "Goal model": 91.16279069767442, "SOG model": 93.02325581395348, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 97.67441860465117, "Goalie": 50.14705882352941, "Team H2H": 38.101454681089145, "Goalie H2H": 47.58410880458125 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": 5, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 51 } }, { "id": "8484223", "name": "Axel Sandin-Pellikka", "team": "DET", "opponent": "CGY", "position": "D", "currentGP": 7, "currentSOG": 0.8571428571428571, "priorSOG": 1, "currentTOI": 12.702380952380953, "currentFiveTOI": 10.792857142857143, "ppShare": 0.1498800959232614, "rate": 0.9272431607850531, "fifty": 0.8302022905971129, "inputs": { "Player": "Axel Sandin-Pellikka", "Player_ID": "8484223", "Team": "DET", "Opponent": "CGY", "Position": "D", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 0.8948442839907695, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 0.9543082894804051, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 7, "Prior_GP": 68, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.382528127068167, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.7690983621102694, "Current_PP_SOG60": 19.2, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 4.707933740191804, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 11.698602941176471, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 10.792857142857143, "Current_PP_Share": 0.1498800959232614, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.31836248927553873, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 375.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2502.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 4, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.430208333333333, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 1.0883484948037376, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.8138801458832934, "Other_State_SOG": 0.014285714285714285, "Environment_Proxy": 1.096640755468006, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:41.146058+00:00", "priorGP": 68, "currentTotalSOG": 6.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.8928571428571429, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.86 SOG/game in 7 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 7 games. 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MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020477", "date": "20251210", "team": "DET", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 16.466666666666665 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Reviewed October22 projected lineup and coach reports", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. 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Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482445", "goalieName": "Devin Cooley", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8484223", "goals": 1, "sog": 2, "shootingPct": 0.5, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 2, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020477", "date": "20251210", "season": 2025, "goals": 1, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482445", "goalieName": "Devin Cooley", "opponent": "DET", "games": 1, "availableGames": 1, "shotsAgainst": 29.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "savePct": 0.8620689655172413, "gaa": 4.1248925809223715, "gsax": -1.0219999999999998, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020477", "date": "20251210", "goalieTeam": "CGY", "opponent": "DET", "shotsAgainst": 29.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3491.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.978 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.7950488609854469, "adjustedSOG": 0.7950488609854469, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.8112743479443336, "adjustedSOG": 0.7950488609854469, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. 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MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021033", "date": "20260312", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "STL", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 11.433333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020730", "date": "20260113", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "STL", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 13.7 }, { "gameId": "2024020284", "date": "20241117", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "STL", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 13.466666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020084", "date": "20241019", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "STL", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 13.116666666666667 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Reviewed October22 projected lineup and coach reports", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 165, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. 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Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480981", "goalieName": "Joel Hofer", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8476921", "goals": 0, "sog": 7, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 4, "recordedAttempts": 10, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020730", "date": "20260113", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2 }, { "gameId": "2024020284", "date": "20241117", "season": 2024, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 4 }, { "gameId": "2024020084", "date": "20241019", "season": 2024, "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 3 }, { "gameId": "2021020216", "date": "20211113", "season": 2021, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480981", "goalieName": "Joel Hofer", "opponent": "CAR", "games": 4, "availableGames": 4, "shotsAgainst": 121.0, "goalsAgainst": 10.0, "savePct": 0.9173553719008265, "gaa": 2.5300442757748263, "gsax": 1.0949999999999998, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020730", "date": "20260113", "goalieTeam": "STL", "opponent": "CAR", "shotsAgainst": 33.0, "goalsAgainst": 0.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.698 }, { "gameId": "2024020284", "date": "20241117", "goalieTeam": "STL", "opponent": "CAR", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.293 }, { "gameId": "2024020084", "date": "20241019", "goalieTeam": "STL", "opponent": "CAR", "shotsAgainst": 40.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.792 }, { "gameId": "2021020216", "date": "20211113", "goalieTeam": "STL", "opponent": "CAR", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3429.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.312 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.354181818181818, "adjustedSOG": 1.354181818181818, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.3818181818181816, "adjustedSOG": 1.354181818181818, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.12086399226404872, "goalHistoryGoals": 28.0, "goalHistoryShots": 238.0, "goalExpected": 0.16701206203759456, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.1634274822540737, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.15381059549277848, "goalProbability": 0.15077191912513002, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.30386763676484574 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12852029385248462, "modelSOG": 1.354181818181818, "historyGames": 167, "seasonGames": { "2024": 79, "2025": 77, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 28.0, "historyShots": 238.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.11764705882352941, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.12086399226404872, "goalieFactor": 0.9785370006226618, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 52.60800986730875, "btb": { "id": "8476921", "name": "Jordan Martinook", "score": 52.60800986730875, "components": { "Goal model": 56.51162790697674, "SOG model": 50.0, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 57.906976744186046, "Goalie": 66.02941176470588, "Team H2H": 45.48675867213726, "Goalie H2H": 45.89031634203619 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": 7, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 178 } }, { "id": "8476923", "name": "Damon Severson", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "VGK", "position": "D", "currentGP": 6, "currentSOG": 1.0, "priorSOG": 1.3098591549295775, "currentTOI": 23.580555555555552, "currentFiveTOI": 19.836111111111112, "ppShare": 0.05213032581453634, "rate": 1.1648097909239323, "fifty": 1.0602902578972317, "inputs": { "Player": "Damon Severson", "Player_ID": "8476923", "Team": "CBJ", "Opponent": "VGK", "Position": "D", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.229078130207045, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.467608871051324, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 6, "Prior_GP": 71, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.520655370396303, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.3442129048455937, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 8.517960851796085, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 19.495136932707357, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 19.836111111111112, "Current_PP_Share": 0.05213032581453634, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.25194817726215596, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 104.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1995.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 2, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.052367424242425, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.4541718397425047, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.211251234145971, "Other_State_SOG": 0.118075117370892, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9217353117054976, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.3098591549295775, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:41.183077+00:00", "priorGP": 71, "currentTotalSOG": 6.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.2888888888888889, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.00 SOG/game in 6 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 6 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.69, "currentIXG": 0.11499999999999999, "priorTOI": 21.07323943661972, "priorPPTOI": 1.0913145539906104, "deploymentChange": 2.507316118935833, "ppTOIChange": -0.8024256651017214, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020692", "date": "20260108", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 23.35 }, { "gameId": "2025020502", "date": "20251213", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 20.633333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024021045", "date": "20250313", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 16.6 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 0.6666666666666666, "opponentDefense": { "team": "VGK", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 275.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 25.0, "mostAllowedRank": 27, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.585792714368043, "pkSogAllowed60": 47.03517587939699, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 38.72727272727273, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 59.0, "C": 80.0, "R": 61.0, "L": 75.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.2727272727272725, "L": 6.818181818181818, "R": 5.545454545454546, "D": 5.363636363636363 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 26.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 25.75, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 25.0, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.363636363636363, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8479394", "team": "VGK", "name": "Carter Hart", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.8876404494382022, "gaa": 2.8716148845371516, "gsax": -1.5090000000000003, "goalsAllowed": 20.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 18.491, "shotsAgainst": 178.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.017200797231895, "factor": 1.017200797231895, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T22:33:02.238Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.0715789625254185, "goalHistoryGoals": 15.0, "goalHistoryShots": 190.0, "goalExpected": 0.06314610517259266, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.06423226852365034, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.061193700787950514, "goalProbability": 0.06221284420558728, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.10191434176367656, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 6, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 0.8821880472236344, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.520655370396303, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 19.836111111111112, "Current_PP_Share": 0.05213032581453634, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.052367424242425, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.211251234145971, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.16666666666666666, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9589471960166247, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9956874166464801, "Position_Factor": 0.9732049652601255, "Input_GP": 6, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 104.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1995.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.3442129048455937, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 8.517960851796085, "Prior_5v5_Min": 18.699530516431928, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.25194817726215596, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.8586256566683613, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.34640522875817, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.8586256566683613, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9956874166464801, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 2.935899526993965, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020692", "date": "20260108", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 23.35 }, { "gameId": "2025020502", "date": "20251213", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 20.633333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024021045", "date": "20250313", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 16.6 }, { "gameId": "2024020820", "date": "20250130", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 15.083333333333334 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "NHL.com October 20 game-specific projected lineup", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 122, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 17, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479394", "goalieName": "Carter Hart", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8476923", "goals": 1, "sog": 7, "shootingPct": 0.14285714285714285, "gamesWithAttempts": 4, "recordedAttempts": 8, "log": [ { "gameId": "2022020382", "date": "20221203", "season": 2022, "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2022020012", "date": "20221013", "season": 2022, "goals": 1, "sog": 3, "attempts": 3 }, { "gameId": "2021020441", "date": "20211214", "season": 2021, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2 }, { "gameId": "2021020398", "date": "20211208", "season": 2021, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479394", "goalieName": "Carter Hart", "opponent": "CBJ", "games": 5, "availableGames": 11, "shotsAgainst": 128.0, "goalsAgainst": 11.0, "savePct": 0.9140625, "gaa": 2.6073215696602583, "gsax": 0.11300000000000043, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020692", "date": "20260108", "goalieTeam": "VGK", "opponent": "CBJ", "shotsAgainst": 1.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 504.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 0.415 }, { "gameId": "2025020502", "date": "20251213", "goalieTeam": "VGK", "opponent": "CBJ", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.064 }, { "gameId": "2023020011", "date": "20231012", "goalieTeam": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "shotsAgainst": 33.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.608 }, { "gameId": "2022021287", "date": "20230411", "goalieTeam": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "shotsAgainst": 31.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3884.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.732 }, { "gameId": "2022020510", "date": "20221220", "goalieTeam": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "shotsAgainst": 33.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.294 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.8821880472236344, "adjustedSOG": 0.8821880472236344, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.8821880472236344, "adjustedSOG": 0.8821880472236344, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.0715789625254185, "goalHistoryGoals": 15.0, "goalHistoryShots": 190.0, "goalExpected": 0.06314610517259266, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.06314610517259266, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.061193700787950514, "goalProbability": 0.061193700787950514, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.057578991323713635, "modelSOG": 0.8821880472236344, "historyGames": 147, "seasonGames": { "2024": 70, "2025": 71, "2026": 6 }, "historyGoals": 15.0, "historyShots": 190.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.07894736842105263, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.0715789625254185, "goalieFactor": 1.017200797231895, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 37.69784173380391, "btb": { "id": "8476923", "name": "Damon Severson", "score": 37.69784173380391, "components": { "Goal model": 21.3953488372093, "SOG model": 20.46511627906977, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 42.093023255813954, "Goalie": 18.38235294117647, "Team H2H": 39.25773964938456, "Goalie H2H": 54.59317585301837 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": 7, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 379 } }, { "id": "8477496", "name": "Elias Lindholm", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "position": "C", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 1.7, "priorSOG": 1.6521739130434783, "currentTOI": 16.735, "currentFiveTOI": 11.791666666666668, "ppShare": 0.5211589782691575, "rate": 1.722192915693188, "fifty": 1.6196113822939573, "inputs": { "Player": "Elias Lindholm", "Player_ID": "8477496", "Team": "BOS", "Opponent": "SJS", "Position": "C", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.6152845637132671, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.5871476227869858, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 10, "Prior_GP": 69, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.070671378091872, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.912753143252242, "Current_PP_SOG60": 10.5340160936357, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 10.145608266791921, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 12.236702898550725, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 11.791666666666668, "Current_PP_Share": 0.5211589782691575, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.5864025601276086, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1367.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2623.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 6, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.950833333333334, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 2.6770742715361515, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 2.5801712415808873, "Other_State_SOG": 0.1673913043478261, "Environment_Proxy": 1.0796680236682055, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.6521739130434783, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/boston-bruins/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:41.201087+00:00", "priorGP": 69, "currentTotalSOG": 17.0, "currentPPTOI": 2.2783333333333333, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.70 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 2.642, "currentIXG": 0.2642, "priorTOI": 17.882367149758455, "priorPPTOI": 2.5712560386473426, "deploymentChange": -1.1473671497584554, "ppTOIChange": -0.2929227053140093, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2026020105", "date": "20261013", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 15.433333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025021027", "date": "20260312", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 8.0, "toi": 20.416666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2025020351", "date": "20251123", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 15.683333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024021117", "date": "20250322", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 15.866666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020740", "date": "20250120", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 17.083333333333332 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 5, "h2hSOG": 1.4, "opponentDefense": { "team": "SJS", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 286.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 28.6, "mostAllowedRank": 10, "fiveSogAllowed60": 25.210423540502322, "pkSogAllowed60": 49.90958408679928, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 47.8, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 86.0, "C": 94.0, "R": 53.0, "L": 53.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.4, "L": 5.3, "R": 5.3, "D": 8.6 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 30.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 29.833333333333332, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 28.6, "oppPosSogAllowed": 9.4, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8477968", "team": "SJS", "name": "Alex Nedeljkovic", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 4, "savePct": 0.9173553719008265, "gaa": 2.372479240806643, "gsax": 4.638, "goalsAllowed": 10.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 14.638, "shotsAgainst": 121.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9618500831522029, "factor": 0.9618500831522029, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T16:06:01.887Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.13015445697762865, "goalHistoryGoals": 37.0, "goalHistoryShots": 283.0, "goalExpected": 0.2294833991348035, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.22072862653986092, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.20505583471077066, "goalProbability": 0.19806572555691943, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.6990109153851232, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.7631620496426628, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.070671378091872, "Current_PP_SOG60": 10.5340160936357, "Current_5v5_Min": 11.791666666666668, "Current_PP_Share": 0.5211589782691575, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.950833333333334, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 2.5801712415808873, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.5, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9930883597207428, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0259958714356598, "Position_Factor": 0.9935572564554559, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1367.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2623.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.912753143252242, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 10.145608266791921, "Prior_5v5_Min": 13.27512077294686, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.5864025601276086, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9979916897506925, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.437908496732026, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9979916897506925, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0259958714356598, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 4.070671378091872, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 10.5340160936357, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.5 }, { "season": "2026", "label": "2026–27", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 0.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2026020105", "date": "20261013", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 15.433333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025021027", "date": "20260312", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 8.0, "toi": 20.416666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2025020351", "date": "20251123", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 15.683333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024021117", "date": "20250322", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 15.866666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020740", "date": "20250120", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 17.083333333333332 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "ppAssignmentSourceDate": "2026-10-12T22:24:39.463Z", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 126, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 51, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477968", "goalieName": "Alex Nedeljkovic", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8477496", "goals": 1, "sog": 11, "shootingPct": 0.09090909090909091, "gamesWithAttempts": 4, "recordedAttempts": 14, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021027", "date": "20260312", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 4 }, { "gameId": "2024020952", "date": "20250301", "season": 2024, "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 4 }, { "gameId": "2023020025", "date": "20231014", "season": 2023, "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 4 }, { "gameId": "2021020054", "date": "20211021", "season": 2021, "goals": 1, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477968", "goalieName": "Alex Nedeljkovic", "opponent": "BOS", "games": 5, "availableGames": 8, "shotsAgainst": 134.0, "goalsAgainst": 17.0, "savePct": 0.8731343283582089, "gaa": 3.7850207186591627, "gsax": -3.2609999999999997, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021027", "date": "20260312", "goalieTeam": "SJS", "opponent": "BOS", "shotsAgainst": 41.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.661 }, { "gameId": "2024020952", "date": "20250301", "goalieTeam": "PIT", "opponent": "BOS", "shotsAgainst": 25.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3474.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.566 }, { "gameId": "2023021279", "date": "20240413", "goalieTeam": "PIT", "opponent": "BOS", "shotsAgainst": 16.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 1895.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.22 }, { "gameId": "2023021012", "date": "20240309", "goalieTeam": "PIT", "opponent": "BOS", "shotsAgainst": 23.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.955 }, { "gameId": "2023020589", "date": "20240104", "goalieTeam": "PIT", "opponent": "BOS", "shotsAgainst": 29.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.337 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.7631620496426628, "adjustedSOG": 1.7631620496426628, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.7631620496426628, "adjustedSOG": 1.7631620496426628, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.13015445697762865, "goalHistoryGoals": 37.0, "goalHistoryShots": 283.0, "goalExpected": 0.2294833991348035, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.2294833991348035, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.20505583471077066, "goalProbability": 0.20505583471077066, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12849157022431776, "modelSOG": 1.7631620496426628, "historyGames": 161, "seasonGames": { "2024": 82, "2025": 69, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 37.0, "historyShots": 283.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.13074204946996468, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.13015445697762865, "goalieFactor": 0.9618500831522029, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 63.071775785796966, "btb": { "id": "8477496", "name": "Elias Lindholm", "score": 63.071775785796966, "components": { "Goal model": 73.72093023255815, "SOG model": 67.44186046511628, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 77.67441860465117, "Goalie": 97.5, "Team H2H": 50.391644908616186, "Goalie H2H": 48.79308119271976 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 5, "goalieH2HShots": 11, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 52 } }, { "id": "8480980", "name": "Connor Dewar", "team": "PIT", "opponent": "NSH", "position": "L", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 1.4, "priorSOG": 1.4102564102564104, "currentTOI": 13.173333333333332, "currentFiveTOI": 10.7, "ppShare": 0.0010204081632653062, "rate": 1.4750853674524556, "fifty": 1.5637043360254979, "inputs": { "Player": "Connor Dewar", "Player_ID": "8480980", "Team": "PIT", "Opponent": "NSH", "Position": "C", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.5319677413693478, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.6022588563664921, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 10, "Prior_GP": 78, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 7.850467289719626, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.291139977864508, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 26.470588235294116, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 10.791346153846153, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 10.7, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0010204081632653062, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.006596827370870892, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 3.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2940.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 6, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.130208333333334, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.013817364149290506, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.0052349064625850355, "Other_State_SOG": 0.21923076923076923, "Environment_Proxy": 1.0738773444064478, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.4102564102564104, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/pittsburgh-penguins/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:41.226068+00:00", "priorGP": 78, "currentTotalSOG": 14.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.005, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.40 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.7979999999999998, "currentIXG": 0.1798, "priorTOI": 13.924358974358974, "priorPPTOI": 0.02905982905982906, "deploymentChange": -0.7510256410256417, "ppTOIChange": -0.02405982905982906, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020296", "date": "20251116", "team": "PIT", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 17.166666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2025020281", "date": "20251114", "team": "PIT", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 12.95 }, { "gameId": "2024020406", "date": "20241204", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 12.133333333333333 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 3, "h2hSOG": 0.3333333333333333, "opponentDefense": { "team": "NSH", "games": 8, "sogAllowedTotal": 233.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 29.125, "mostAllowedRank": 8, "fiveSogAllowed60": 26.902173913043477, "pkSogAllowed60": 37.776914108045084, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 45.125, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 82.0, "L": 44.0, "D": 67.0, "R": 40.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.25, "L": 5.5, "R": 5.0, "D": 8.375 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 27.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 3, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 30.0, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 29.125, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.5, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8477424", "team": "NSH", "name": "Juuse Saros", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.9061032863849765, "gaa": 2.8192176670973805, "gsax": 1.6679999999999993, "goalsAllowed": 20.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 21.668, "shotsAgainst": 213.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9906396066739361, "factor": 0.9906396066739361, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T15:56:16.281Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.11416951197331131, "goalHistoryGoals": 19.0, "goalHistoryShots": 179.0, "goalExpected": 0.16598270100944545, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.16442903764267458, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.15293911263905366, "goalProbability": 0.15162204229189796, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.13170703471556966, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.4538268416899793, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 7.850467289719626, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 10.7, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0010204081632653062, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.130208333333334, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.0052349064625850355, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0235094259979116, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9053307495740243, "Position_Factor": 1.0017791101863063, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 3.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2940.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.291139977864508, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 26.470588235294116, "Prior_5v5_Min": 11.00448717948718, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.006596827370870892, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.038447744064271, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.062091503267974, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.038447744064271, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9053307495740243, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 7.850467289719626, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 0.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020296", "date": "20251116", "team": "PIT", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 17.166666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2025020281", "date": "20251114", "team": "PIT", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 12.95 }, { "gameId": "2024020406", "date": "20241204", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 12.133333333333333 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-19T20:27:28.451Z", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 157, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477424", "goalieName": "Juuse Saros", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8480980", "goals": 2, "sog": 11, "shootingPct": 0.18181818181818182, "gamesWithAttempts": 7, "recordedAttempts": 15, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020296", "date": "20251116", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 3 }, { "gameId": "2024020406", "date": "20241204", "season": 2024, "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2023020948", "date": "20240229", "season": 2023, "goals": 1, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2 }, { "gameId": "2023020347", "date": "20231130", "season": 2023, "goals": 1, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2 }, { "gameId": "2022021305", "date": "20230413", "season": 2022, "goals": 0, "sog": 4, "attempts": 4 }, { "gameId": "2022020896", "date": "20230219", "season": 2022, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2 }, { "gameId": "2022020254", "date": "20221115", "season": 2022, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477424", "goalieName": "Juuse Saros", "opponent": "PIT", "games": 5, "availableGames": 13, "shotsAgainst": 131.0, "goalsAgainst": 15.0, "savePct": 0.8854961832061069, "gaa": 3.034219250435467, "gsax": -2.5649999999999995, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020296", "date": "20251116", "goalieTeam": "NSH", "opponent": "PIT", "shotsAgainst": 21.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3562.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.064 }, { "gameId": "2025020281", "date": "20251114", "goalieTeam": "NSH", "opponent": "PIT", "shotsAgainst": 17.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3637.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.622 }, { "gameId": "2024020830", "date": "20250201", "goalieTeam": "NSH", "opponent": "PIT", "shotsAgainst": 35.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3527.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.258 }, { "gameId": "2024020515", "date": "20241219", "goalieTeam": "NSH", "opponent": "PIT", "shotsAgainst": 20.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3657.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.863 }, { "gameId": "2023021289", "date": "20240415", "goalieTeam": "NSH", "opponent": "PIT", "shotsAgainst": 38.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3414.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.628 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.4538268416899793, "adjustedSOG": 1.4538268416899793, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.4538268416899793, "adjustedSOG": 1.4538268416899793, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.11416951197331131, "goalHistoryGoals": 19.0, "goalHistoryShots": 179.0, "goalExpected": 0.16598270100944545, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.16442903764267458, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.15293911263905366, "goalProbability": 0.15162204229189796, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.13170703471556966 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1285329384055385, "modelSOG": 1.4538268416899793, "historyGames": 136, "seasonGames": { "2024": 48, "2025": 78, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 19.0, "historyShots": 179.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.10614525139664804, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.11416951197331131, "goalieFactor": 0.9906396066739361, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 54.927339552183206, "btb": { "id": "8480980", "name": "Connor Dewar", "score": 54.927339552183206, "components": { "Goal model": 57.2093023255814, "SOG model": 55.58139534883721, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 58.13953488372093, "Goalie": 81.91176470588235, "Team H2H": 40.510142598915444, "Goalie H2H": 56.24757970827417 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 3, "goalieH2HShots": 11, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 145 } }, { "id": "8474563", "name": "Drew Doughty", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "NJD", "position": "D", "currentGP": 7, "currentSOG": 0.7142857142857143, "priorSOG": 1.4027777777777777, "currentTOI": 20.473809523809525, "currentFiveTOI": 16.91190476190476, "ppShare": 0.22193347193347193, "rate": 1.1721887813495728, "fifty": 0.9938297300361791, "inputs": { "Player": "Drew Doughty", "Player_ID": "8474563", "Team": "LAK", "Opponent": "NJD", "Position": "D", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.0569948081721185, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 0.7654602969662361, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 7, "Prior_GP": 72, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.0273124032099115, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.385049365303244, "Current_PP_SOG60": 8.430913348946136, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 8.955223880597014, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 17.598958333333332, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 16.91190476190476, "Current_PP_Share": 0.22193347193347193, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.371171368801226, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 427.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1924.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 4, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.575661375661376, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 1.220351039637231, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 1.0154924154924156, "Other_State_SOG": 0.07500000000000001, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9357862710703578, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.4027777777777777, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/los-angeles-kings/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:41.245885+00:00", "priorGP": 72, "currentTotalSOG": 5.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.0166666666666666, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.71 SOG/game in 7 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 7 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.369, "currentIXG": 0.052714285714285714, "priorTOI": 23.086342592592594, "priorPPTOI": 1.5819444444444446, "deploymentChange": -2.612533068783069, "ppTOIChange": -0.565277777777778, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021050", "date": "20260314", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 23.25 }, { "gameId": "2025020191", "date": "20251101", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 8.0, "toi": 22.433333333333334 } ], "h2hGames": 2, "h2hAvailableGames": 2, "h2hSOG": 1.5, "opponentDefense": { "team": "NJD", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 234.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 26.0, "mostAllowedRank": 22, "fiveSogAllowed60": 24.374647357532442, "pkSogAllowed60": 52.512155591572125, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 37.111111111111114, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "L": 41.0, "D": 63.0, "C": 78.0, "R": 52.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 8.666666666666666, "L": 4.555555555555555, "R": 5.777777777777778, "D": 7.0 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 25.0, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 25.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 26.0, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.0, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8474596", "team": "NJD", "name": "Jake Allen", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 6, "savePct": 0.8834355828220859, "gaa": 3.1496062992125986, "gsax": -3.708, "goalsAllowed": 19.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 15.292, "shotsAgainst": 163.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0365218981504722, "factor": 1.0365218981504722, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T17:31:56.013Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.058598153396966675, "goalHistoryGoals": 9.0, "goalHistoryShots": 152.0, "goalExpected": 0.04066123537165389, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.04214626086856982, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.0398456588117962, "goalProbability": 0.0412704542987803, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.14247954869840984, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 7, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 0.6938996028799556, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.0273124032099115, "Current_PP_SOG60": 8.430913348946136, "Current_5v5_Min": 16.91190476190476, "Current_PP_Share": 0.22193347193347193, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.575661375661376, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.0154924154924156, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9778442581785296, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0469775686735434, "Position_Factor": 0.9997771298284035, "Input_GP": 7, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 427.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1924.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.385049365303244, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 8.955223880597014, "Prior_5v5_Min": 19.202083333333334, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.371171368801226, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9776643566210901, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.34640522875817, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9776643566210901, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0469775686735434, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 2.0273124032099115, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 8.430913348946136, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021050", "date": "20260314", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 23.25 }, { "gameId": "2025020191", "date": "20251101", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 8.0, "toi": 22.433333333333334 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "ppAssignmentSourceDate": "2026-10-11T01:38:00.435Z", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 118, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. 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Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8474596", "goalieName": "Jake Allen", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8474563", "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 3, "recordedAttempts": 4, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021050", "date": "20260314", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2022020982", "date": "20230302", "season": 2022, "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2022020439", "date": "20221210", "season": 2022, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8474596", "goalieName": "Jake Allen", "opponent": "LAK", "games": 5, "availableGames": 17, "shotsAgainst": 151.0, "goalsAgainst": 16.0, "savePct": 0.8940397350993378, "gaa": 3.2597623089983023, "gsax": 1.5839999999999996, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021050", "date": "20260314", "goalieTeam": "NJD", "opponent": "LAK", "shotsAgainst": 31.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.558 }, { "gameId": "2024020602", "date": "20250101", "goalieTeam": "NJD", "opponent": "LAK", "shotsAgainst": 23.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3431.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.828 }, { "gameId": "2023020309", "date": "20231125", "goalieTeam": "MTL", "opponent": "LAK", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.339 }, { "gameId": "2022020982", "date": "20230302", "goalieTeam": "MTL", "opponent": "LAK", "shotsAgainst": 33.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3509.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.849 }, { "gameId": "2022020439", "date": "20221210", "goalieTeam": "MTL", "opponent": "LAK", "shotsAgainst": 34.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3530.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.01 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.6938996028799556, "adjustedSOG": 0.6938996028799556, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.7080608192652608, "adjustedSOG": 0.6938996028799556, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.058598153396966675, "goalHistoryGoals": 9.0, "goalHistoryShots": 152.0, "goalExpected": 0.04149105650168765, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.04149105650168765, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.04064208468099865, "goalProbability": 0.04064208468099865, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05766734656035602, "modelSOG": 0.6938996028799556, "historyGames": 109, "seasonGames": { "2024": 30, "2025": 72, "2026": 7 }, "historyGoals": 9.0, "historyShots": 152.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.05921052631578947, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.058598153396966675, "goalieFactor": 1.0365218981504722, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 37.964295468437086, "btb": { "id": "8474563", "name": "Drew Doughty", "score": 37.964295468437086, "components": { "Goal model": 10.930232558139535, "SOG model": 13.023255813953488, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 17.906976744186046, "Goalie": 55.44117647058823, "Team H2H": 51.89295039164491, "Goalie H2H": 50.08328285887341 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 2, "goalieH2HShots": 2, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 376 } }, { "id": "8482802", "name": "Carter Mazur", "team": "DET", "opponent": "CGY", "position": "L", "currentGP": 4, "currentSOG": 1.0, "priorSOG": 0.375, "currentTOI": 9.575, "currentFiveTOI": 9.4125, "ppShare": 0.0, "rate": 0.44340589889456905, "fifty": 0.6779783490611802, "inputs": { "Player": "Carter Mazur", "Player_ID": "8482802", "Team": "DET", "Opponent": "CGY", "Position": "L", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 0.4482371536721541, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 0.8253721693815208, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 4, "Prior_GP": 8, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 6.374501992031872, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 2.1289178001182734, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 9.759374999999999, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 9.4125, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.015335246322993474, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1032.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 2, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.430208333333333, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.024982074713051555, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.0, "Other_State_SOG": 0.0, "Environment_Proxy": 1.096640755468006, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 0.375, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:41.266474+00:00", "priorGP": 8, "currentTotalSOG": 4.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.0, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.00 SOG/game in 4 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 4 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.73, "currentIXG": 0.1825, "priorTOI": 10.697916666666666, "priorPPTOI": 0.08125, "deploymentChange": -1.1229166666666668, "ppTOIChange": -0.08125, "h2hLog": [], "h2hGames": 0, "h2hAvailableGames": 0, "h2hSOG": null, "opponentDefense": { "team": "CGY", "games": 8, "sogAllowedTotal": 237.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 29.625, "mostAllowedRank": 6, "fiveSogAllowed60": 29.8086265894977, "pkSogAllowed60": 38.789888106092, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.5, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 59.0, "C": 89.0, "R": 48.0, "L": 41.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 11.125, "L": 5.125, "R": 6.0, "D": 7.375 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 30.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.5, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 29.625, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.125, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8482445", "team": "CGY", "name": "Devin Cooley", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 3, "savePct": 0.8681318681318682, "gaa": 4.010025062656641, "gsax": -2.561, "goalsAllowed": 12.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 9.439, "shotsAgainst": 91.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0263021756310153, "factor": 1.0263021756310153, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T16:24:22.507Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.1200983697724408, "goalHistoryGoals": 0.0, "goalHistoryShots": 7.0, "goalExpected": 0.118346472169907, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.12145924186623096, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.1116118025004253, "goalProbability": 0.11437285087692237, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.27610483764970717, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 4, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 0.9854128111326302, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 6.374501992031872, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 9.4125, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.430208333333333, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.0, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0746225056341803, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9180727421999328, "Position_Factor": 0.9923066376474455, "Input_GP": 4, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1032.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 2.1289178001182734, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 10.56875, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.015335246322993474, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0055232766659494, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.062091503267974, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0055232766659494, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9180727421999328, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 6.374501992031872, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. 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Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482445", "goalieName": "Devin Cooley", "opponent": "DET", "games": 1, "availableGames": 1, "shotsAgainst": 29.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "savePct": 0.8620689655172413, "gaa": 4.1248925809223715, "gsax": -1.0219999999999998, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020477", "date": "20251210", "goalieTeam": "CGY", "opponent": "DET", "shotsAgainst": 29.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3491.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.978 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.9854128111326302, "adjustedSOG": 0.9854128111326302, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.0055232766659492, "adjustedSOG": 0.9854128111326302, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.1200983697724408, "goalHistoryGoals": 0.0, "goalHistoryShots": 7.0, "goalExpected": 0.12076170629582346, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.12076170629582346, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.1137548789346413, "goalProbability": 0.1137548789346413, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12850525565651166, "modelSOG": 0.9854128111326302, "historyGames": 13, "seasonGames": { "2024": 1, "2025": 8, "2026": 4 }, "historyGoals": 0.0, "historyShots": 7.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.0, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.1200983697724408, "goalieFactor": 1.0263021756310153, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": 50.446306429548564, "btb": { "id": "8482802", "name": "Carter Mazur", "score": 50.446306429548564, "components": { "Goal model": 42.093023255813954, "SOG model": 27.441860465116278, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 60.23255813953488, "Goalie": 71.32352941176471, "Team H2H": 50.0, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Team H2H unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 0, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 196 } }, { "id": "8482116", "name": "Tim Stützle", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "NYR", "position": "C", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 1.7, "priorSOG": 2.425, "currentTOI": 21.915, "currentFiveTOI": 13.245, "ppShare": 0.6439447177324901, "rate": 2.259610118818117, "fifty": 1.9501443325524201, "inputs": { "Player": "Tim Sttzle", "Player_ID": "8482116", "Team": "OTT", "Opponent": "NYR", "Position": "C", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 2.3603691595815994, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 2.095397035762695, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 10, "Prior_GP": 80, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.7180067950169877, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.053508692910548, "Current_PP_SOG60": 6.547835576573299, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 9.015213172228135, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 13.434375, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 13.245, "Current_PP_Share": 0.6439447177324901, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.6735198653974311, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2749.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 4269.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 5, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 6.001439393939394, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 3.9178432334023348, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 3.8645951965189496, "Other_State_SOG": 0.49874999999999997, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9482920490252438, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 2.425, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/ottawa-senators/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:41.287392+00:00", "priorGP": 80, "currentTotalSOG": 17.0, "currentPPTOI": 4.581666666666667, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.70 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 2.914, "currentIXG": 0.2914, "priorTOI": 20.267500000000002, "priorPPTOI": 3.327708333333333, "deploymentChange": 1.6474999999999973, "ppTOIChange": 1.2539583333333342, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021119", "date": "20260323", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "NYR", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 22.266666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020737", "date": "20260114", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "NYR", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 17.716666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2025020427", "date": "20251204", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "NYR", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 23.3 }, { "gameId": "2024021003", "date": "20250308", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "NYR", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 23.533333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2024020750", "date": "20250121", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "NYR", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 19.316666666666666 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 6, "h2hSOG": 1.8, "opponentDefense": { "team": "NYR", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 283.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 25.727272727272727, "mostAllowedRank": 23, "fiveSogAllowed60": 24.897512126427788, "pkSogAllowed60": 40.17358958462492, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 39.81818181818182, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 106.0, "D": 82.0, "R": 57.0, "L": 38.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.636363636363637, "L": 3.4545454545454546, "R": 5.181818181818182, "D": 7.454545454545454 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 27.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.4, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 25.727272727272727, "oppPosSogAllowed": 9.636363636363637, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8482193", "team": "NYR", "name": "Dylan Garand", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.9285714285714286, "gaa": 1.846928781306842, "gsax": 4.030999999999999, "goalsAllowed": 11.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 15.030999999999999, "shotsAgainst": 154.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9674872583533348, "factor": 0.9674872583533348, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T15:37:42.216Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.16244262587541794, "goalHistoryGoals": 64.0, "goalHistoryShots": 373.0, "goalExpected": 0.2590187393644328, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.2505973300098321, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.22819144029368568, "goalProbability": 0.2216642790963818, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.6527161197303871, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.5945244542099557, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.7180067950169877, "Current_PP_SOG60": 6.547835576573299, "Current_5v5_Min": 13.245, "Current_PP_Share": 0.6439447177324901, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 6.001439393939394, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 3.8645951965189496, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.6, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9864268368728425, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9197863814450764, "Position_Factor": 1.0105908601706983, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2749.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 4269.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.053508692910548, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 9.015213172228135, "Prior_5v5_Min": 13.876249999999999, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.6735198653974311, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.011014378050389, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.437908496732026, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.011014378050389, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9197863814450764, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 2.7180067950169877, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 6.547835576573299, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 2.3333333333333335 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 2.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021119", "date": "20260323", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "NYR", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 22.266666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020737", "date": "20260114", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "NYR", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 17.716666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2025020427", "date": "20251204", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "NYR", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 23.3 }, { "gameId": "2024021003", "date": "20250308", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "NYR", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 23.533333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2024020750", "date": "20250121", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "NYR", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 19.316666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020170", "date": "20241101", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "NYR", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 23.15 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "lineupReviewedAt": "2026-10-22T12:25:32.333917+00:00", "lineupReviewNote": "Reported forward, defense and PP chart reviewed October22; matches existing assignments. Final dressing unconfirmed. Dated statistical inputs now include October21.", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 169, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 54, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482193", "goalieName": "Dylan Garand", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8482116", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482193", "goalieName": "Dylan Garand", "opponent": "OTT", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "No appearance found in the supplied historical files; this does not establish that the goalie has never faced the team." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.5945244542099557, "adjustedSOG": 1.5945244542099557, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.5945244542099557, "adjustedSOG": 1.5945244542099557, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.16244262587541794, "goalHistoryGoals": 64.0, "goalHistoryShots": 373.0, "goalExpected": 0.2590187393644328, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.2505973300098321, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.22819144029368568, "goalProbability": 0.2216642790963818, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.6527161197303871 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12835362039072692, "modelSOG": 1.5945244542099557, "historyGames": 172, "seasonGames": { "2024": 82, "2025": 80, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 64.0, "historyShots": 373.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.17158176943699732, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.16244262587541794, "goalieFactor": 0.9674872583533348, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 58.72207565550964, "btb": { "id": "8482116", "name": "Tim Stützle", "score": 58.72207565550964, "components": { "Goal model": 78.37209302325581, "SOG model": 60.23255813953488, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 82.79069767441861, "Goalie": 39.55882352941177, "Team H2H": 52.00718015665797, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 6, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 102 } }, { "id": "8477451", "name": "Ryan Hartman", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "SEA", "position": "C", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 0.9, "priorSOG": 2.1973684210526314, "currentTOI": 13.26, "currentFiveTOI": 12.038333333333334, "ppShare": 0.26935749588138386, "rate": 2.0662043522148648, "fifty": 1.6613037219918276, "inputs": { "Player": "Ryan Hartman", "Player_ID": "8477451", "Team": "MIN", "Opponent": "SEA", "Position": "R", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.9945408258901018, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.559832718212651, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 10, "Prior_GP": 76, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.987262910148138, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 7.330095623058128, "Current_PP_SOG60": 5.504587155963303, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 12.225705329153605, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 12.78880701754386, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 12.038333333333334, "Current_PP_Share": 0.26935749588138386, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.3182102951820785, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 654.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2428.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 5, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 3.9491666666666667, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 1.1216159981230631, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 1.0637376441515651, "Other_State_SOG": 0.07105263157894737, "Environment_Proxy": 1.1489692159321772, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 2.1973684210526314, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/minnesota-wild/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:41.308536+00:00", "priorGP": 76, "currentTotalSOG": 9.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.09, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.90 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.655, "currentIXG": 0.1655, "priorTOI": 16.74473684210526, "priorPPTOI": 1.6789473684210525, "deploymentChange": -3.484736842105262, "ppTOIChange": -0.5889473684210524, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021240", "date": "20260407", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 18.45 }, { "gameId": "2025020693", "date": "20260108", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 18.683333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020465", "date": "20251208", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 15.05 }, { "gameId": "2024021088", "date": "20250319", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 22.433333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020982", "date": "20250304", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 15.85 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 6, "h2hSOG": 2.8, "opponentDefense": { "team": "SEA", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 311.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 31.1, "mostAllowedRank": 3, "fiveSogAllowed60": 29.01212141229316, "pkSogAllowed60": 57.63738641280831, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 48.5, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 101.0, "R": 65.0, "L": 58.0, "D": 87.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.1, "L": 5.8, "R": 6.5, "D": 8.7 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 31.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 3, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 28.666666666666668, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 31.1, "oppPosSogAllowed": 10.1, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8478916", "team": "SEA", "name": "Joey Daccord", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 5, "savePct": 0.881578947368421, "gaa": 3.8855909336211547, "gsax": -2.3970000000000002, "goalsAllowed": 18.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 15.603, "shotsAgainst": 152.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.024854248577667, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Likely starter per Daily Faceoff; no Model Goal adjustment until confirmed.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T20:31:39.541Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.11026912042222756, "goalHistoryGoals": 35.0, "goalHistoryShots": 334.0, "goalExpected": 0.10100031674912067, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.10100031674912067, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.09606725343408389, "goalProbability": 0.09606725343408389, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 0.9159437960725901, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.987262910148138, "Current_PP_SOG60": 5.504587155963303, "Current_5v5_Min": 12.038333333333334, "Current_PP_Share": 0.26935749588138386, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 3.9491666666666667, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.0637376441515651, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0689197555315912, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0920680305430235, "Position_Factor": 0.9921459571037935, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 654.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2428.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 7.330095623058128, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 12.225705329153605, "Prior_5v5_Min": 14.539912280701754, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.3182102951820785, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0350761772853185, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.437908496732026, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0350761772853185, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0920680305430235, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 3.987262910148138, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 5.504587155963303, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 4.666666666666667 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 2.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021240", "date": "20260407", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 18.45 }, { "gameId": "2025020693", "date": "20260108", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 18.683333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020465", "date": "20251208", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 15.05 }, { "gameId": "2024021088", "date": "20250319", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 22.433333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020982", "date": "20250304", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 15.85 }, { "gameId": "2024020033", "date": "20241012", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "home", "sog": 6.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 8.0, "toi": 16.216666666666665 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 227, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 38, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478916", "goalieName": "Joey Daccord", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8477451", "goals": 1, "sog": 15, "shootingPct": 0.06666666666666667, "gamesWithAttempts": 5, "recordedAttempts": 19, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021240", "date": "20260407", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 4 }, { "gameId": "2024020982", "date": "20250304", "season": 2024, "goals": 0, "sog": 4, "attempts": 6 }, { "gameId": "2024020033", "date": "20241012", "season": 2024, "goals": 1, "sog": 6, "attempts": 6 }, { "gameId": "2023020913", "date": "20240224", "season": 2023, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2023020426", "date": "20231210", "season": 2023, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478916", "goalieName": "Joey Daccord", "opponent": "MIN", "games": 5, "availableGames": 6, "shotsAgainst": 123.0, "goalsAgainst": 19.0, "savePct": 0.8455284552845528, "gaa": 4.3387250237868695, "gsax": -6.912000000000001, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021240", "date": "20260407", "goalieTeam": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 28.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3488.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.569 }, { "gameId": "2024020982", "date": "20250304", "goalieTeam": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 20.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3463.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.635 }, { "gameId": "2024020033", "date": "20241012", "goalieTeam": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 38.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3885.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.839 }, { "gameId": "2023021307", "date": "20240418", "goalieTeam": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.121 }, { "gameId": "2023020913", "date": "20240224", "goalieTeam": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 13.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 1329.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.924 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.9159437960725901, "adjustedSOG": 0.9159437960725901, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.9346365266046839, "adjustedSOG": 0.9159437960725901, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.11026912042222756, "goalHistoryGoals": 35.0, "goalHistoryShots": 334.0, "goalExpected": 0.10306154770318438, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.10306154770318438, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.09792854865303453, "goalProbability": 0.09792854865303453, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12856798263246763, "modelSOG": 0.9159437960725901, "historyGames": 155, "seasonGames": { "2024": 69, "2025": 76, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 35.0, "historyShots": 334.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.10479041916167664, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.11026912042222756, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 48.93368222114275, "btb": { "id": "8477451", "name": "Ryan Hartman", "score": 48.93368222114275, "components": { "Goal model": 36.51162790697674, "SOG model": 23.023255813953487, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 52.55813953488372, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 68.16253263707571, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Likely", "h2hGames": 6, "goalieH2HShots": 15, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 212 } }, { "id": "8480839", "name": "Rasmus Dahlin", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "WSH", "position": "D", "currentGP": 7, "currentSOG": 3.2857142857142856, "priorSOG": 2.5324675324675323, "currentTOI": 24.035714285714285, "currentFiveTOI": 19.745238095238097, "ppShare": 0.6266114180478821, "rate": 2.8557210505735613, "fifty": 3.140059091002333, "inputs": { "Player": "Rasmus Dahlin", "Player_ID": "8480839", "Team": "BUF", "Opponent": "WSH", "Position": "D", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 2.861741636413284, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 2.9898394661261034, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 7, "Prior_GP": 77, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 6.511515736163029, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.380858929304916, "Current_PP_SOG60": 18.515797207935343, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 11.547525530243519, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 19.5128354978355, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 19.745238095238097, "Current_PP_Share": 0.6266114180478821, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.6898752407424643, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1361.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2172.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 5, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.493148148148148, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 3.5463246158020634, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 3.4420693506582083, "Other_State_SOG": 0.17792207792207793, "Environment_Proxy": 1.0834850655013406, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 2.5324675324675323, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/buffalo-sabres/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:41.327361+00:00", "priorGP": 77, "currentTotalSOG": 23.0, "currentPPTOI": 3.2404761904761905, "volumeNote": "Observed 3.29 SOG/game in 7 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 7 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.712, "currentIXG": 0.24457142857142858, "priorTOI": 24.185714285714287, "priorPPTOI": 3.3064935064935064, "deploymentChange": -0.15000000000000213, "ppTOIChange": -0.06601731601731586, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021213", "date": "20260404", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 22.466666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2025021028", "date": "20260312", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 23.466666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2025020186", "date": "20251101", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 26.2 }, { "gameId": "2024021171", "date": "20250330", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 22.3 }, { "gameId": "2024020637", "date": "20250106", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 29.966666666666665 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 5, "h2hSOG": 1.4, "opponentDefense": { "team": "WSH", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 263.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 29.22222222222222, "mostAllowedRank": 7, "fiveSogAllowed60": 28.540383918869974, "pkSogAllowed60": 52.820345614607106, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.111111111111114, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "L": 48.0, "D": 68.0, "C": 72.0, "R": 75.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 8.0, "L": 5.333333333333333, "R": 8.333333333333334, "D": 7.555555555555555 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 29.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27.5, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 29.22222222222222, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.555555555555555, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8479292", "team": "WSH", "name": "Charlie Lindgren", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 2, "savePct": 0.896551724137931, "gaa": 3.061224489795918, "gsax": 0.2989999999999995, "goalsAllowed": 6.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 6.2989999999999995, "shotsAgainst": 58.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.99868053226692, "factor": 0.99868053226692, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T14:45:41.433Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.08443026195719885, "goalHistoryGoals": 38.0, "goalHistoryShots": 418.0, "goalExpected": 0.2843167154162146, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.28394156868424764, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.2474717303444751, "goalProbability": 0.24718936886321913, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.02823614812559605, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 7, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 3.367474041006131, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 6.511515736163029, "Current_PP_SOG60": 18.515797207935343, "Current_5v5_Min": 19.745238095238097, "Current_PP_Share": 0.6266114180478821, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.493148148148148, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 3.4420693506582083, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.14285714285714285, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.053751909733539, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0558974457897532, "Position_Factor": 0.9950902926097296, "Input_GP": 7, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1361.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2172.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.380858929304916, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 11.547525530243519, "Prior_5v5_Min": 18.970562770562772, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.6898752407424643, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0134856714740588, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.34640522875817, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0134856714740588, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0558974457897532, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 6.543624161073826, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 17.094017094017094, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 1.6666666666666667 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021213", "date": "20260404", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 22.466666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2025021028", "date": "20260312", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 23.466666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2025020186", "date": "20251101", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 26.2 }, { "gameId": "2024021171", "date": "20250330", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 22.3 }, { "gameId": "2024020637", "date": "20250106", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 29.966666666666665 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff latest reported chart; October 21 final lineup pending", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 193, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 69, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479292", "goalieName": "Charlie Lindgren", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8480839", "goals": 1, "sog": 10, "shootingPct": 0.1, "gamesWithAttempts": 5, "recordedAttempts": 15, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021028", "date": "20260312", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 3 }, { "gameId": "2025020186", "date": "20251101", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2024020637", "date": "20250106", "season": 2024, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 3 }, { "gameId": "2023021255", "date": "20240411", "season": 2023, "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 4 }, { "gameId": "2023021189", "date": "20240402", "season": 2023, "goals": 1, "sog": 4, "attempts": 4 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479292", "goalieName": "Charlie Lindgren", "opponent": "BUF", "games": 5, "availableGames": 8, "shotsAgainst": 128.0, "goalsAgainst": 16.0, "savePct": 0.875, "gaa": 3.275891486094523, "gsax": -2.283, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021028", "date": "20260312", "goalieTeam": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.161 }, { "gameId": "2025020186", "date": "20251101", "goalieTeam": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3892.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.677 }, { "gameId": "2024020637", "date": "20250106", "goalieTeam": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "shotsAgainst": 27.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3900.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.647 }, { "gameId": "2023021255", "date": "20240411", "goalieTeam": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "shotsAgainst": 16.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3458.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.149 }, { "gameId": "2023021189", "date": "20240402", "goalieTeam": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "shotsAgainst": 31.0, "goalsAgainst": 6.0, "seconds": 2733.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.083 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 3.367474041006131, "adjustedSOG": 3.367474041006131, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 3.436198001026664, "adjustedSOG": 3.367474041006131, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.08443026195719885, "goalHistoryGoals": 38.0, "goalHistoryShots": 418.0, "goalExpected": 0.2901190973634843, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.2897362945757629, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.2518255433329821, "goalProbability": 0.2515390852402879, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.02864580926942306 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05734875693829003, "modelSOG": 3.367474041006131, "historyGames": 157, "seasonGames": { "2024": 73, "2025": 77, "2026": 7 }, "historyGoals": 38.0, "historyShots": 418.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.09090909090909091, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.08443026195719885, "goalieFactor": 0.99868053226692, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 63.930242476606274, "btb": { "id": "8480839", "name": "Rasmus Dahlin", "score": 63.930242476606274, "components": { "Goal model": 83.02325581395348, "SOG model": 97.20930232558139, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 72.55813953488372, "Goalie": 87.05882352941177, "Team H2H": 40.644038294168844, "Goalie H2H": 54.06824146981627 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 5, "goalieH2HShots": 10, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 44 } }, { "id": "8479390", "name": "Taylor Raddysh", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "OTT", "position": "R", "currentGP": 2, "currentSOG": 0.5, "priorSOG": 0.7794117647058824, "currentTOI": 8.7, "currentFiveTOI": 8.7, "ppShare": 0.0, "rate": 0.6450568077484838, "fifty": 0.5944175181858335, "inputs": { "Player": "Taylor Raddysh", "Player_ID": "8479390", "Team": "NYR", "Opponent": "OTT", "Position": "R", "Current_GP": 2, "Prior_GP": 68, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.4482758620689653, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.749045381962926, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 4.996530187369882, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 9.267279411764704, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 8.7, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.09639085340028151, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 638.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 1, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Measured game-matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Historical skater-team PP minute approximation, existing hybrid method", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.145909090909091, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.14880557063789823, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.0, "Other_State_SOG": 0.07941176470588236, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9343896732646498, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 0.7794117647058824, "Status": "Historical input object restored from saved prior summaries", "Availability_Note": "Conditional on dressing", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 0.5875595018500811, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 0.37701545626861577 }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-york-rangers/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:41.347480+00:00", "priorGP": 68, "currentTotalSOG": 1.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.0, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.50 SOG/game in 2 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 2 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.016, "currentIXG": 0.008, "priorTOI": 11.843137254901961, "priorPPTOI": 0.3531862745098039, "deploymentChange": -3.143137254901962, "ppTOIChange": -0.3531862745098039, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021119", "date": "20260323", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 11.766666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020737", "date": "20260114", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 10.2 }, { "gameId": "2025020427", "date": "20251204", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 8.883333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020967", "date": "20250303", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 12.766666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020814", "date": "20250130", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 7.116666666666666 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 6, "h2hSOG": 0.4, "opponentDefense": { "team": "OTT", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 255.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 25.5, "mostAllowedRank": 25, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.477120373069077, "pkSogAllowed60": 46.82395644283122, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 38.7, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 67.0, "C": 98.0, "R": 48.0, "L": 42.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.8, "L": 4.2, "R": 4.8, "D": 6.7 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 24.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 22.6, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 25.5, "oppPosSogAllowed": 4.8, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8477992", "team": "OTT", "name": "Jonas Johansson", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 0, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "goalsAllowed": null, "xGoalsAgainst": null, "shotsAgainst": null, "scenarioFactor": 1, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; no matching goalie statistics in this snapshot, so the goalie factor remains neutral.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T15:15:50.280Z", "idResolution": "Exact goalie name mapped to one unique MoneyPuck player ID" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.11681093565165143, "goalHistoryGoals": 16.0, "goalHistoryShots": 147.0, "goalExpected": 0.05414091120785476, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.05414091120785476, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.05270138789504001, "goalProbability": 0.05270138789504001, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": null, "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 2, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 0.46349180327868844, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.4482758620689653, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 8.7, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.145909090909091, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.0, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9604171757553249, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9920036605974645, "Position_Factor": 0.9940613950498232, "Input_GP": 2, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 638.0, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9459016393442623, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.382352941176471, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9459016393442623, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9920036605974645, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 3.4482758620689653, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 0.6666666666666666 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 0.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021119", "date": "20260323", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 11.766666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020737", "date": "20260114", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 10.2 }, { "gameId": "2025020427", "date": "20251204", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 8.883333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020967", "date": "20250303", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 12.766666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020814", "date": "20250130", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 7.116666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020708", "date": "20250116", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 7.566666666666666 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477992", "goalieName": "Jonas Johansson", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8479390", "goals": 0, "sog": 5, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 4, "recordedAttempts": 6, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020391", "date": "20251129", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2025020265", "date": "20251112", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2023020246", "date": "20231116", "season": 2023, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2 }, { "gameId": "2023020198", "date": "20231109", "season": 2023, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477992", "goalieName": "Jonas Johansson", "opponent": "NYR", "games": 4, "availableGames": 4, "shotsAgainst": 43.0, "goalsAgainst": 6.0, "savePct": 0.8604651162790697, "gaa": 2.615328732292045, "gsax": -1.567, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020391", "date": "20251129", "goalieTeam": "TBL", "opponent": "NYR", "shotsAgainst": 13.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.688 }, { "gameId": "2025020265", "date": "20251112", "goalieTeam": "TBL", "opponent": "NYR", "shotsAgainst": 7.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 993.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 0.748 }, { "gameId": "2024021310", "date": "20250417", "goalieTeam": "TBL", "opponent": "NYR", "shotsAgainst": 22.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3573.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.983 }, { "gameId": "2021020399", "date": "20211208", "goalieTeam": "COL", "opponent": "NYR", "shotsAgainst": 1.0, "goalsAgainst": 0.0, "seconds": 93.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 0.014 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.46349180327868844, "adjustedSOG": 0.46349180327868844, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.4729508196721311, "adjustedSOG": 0.46349180327868844, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.11681093565165143, "goalHistoryGoals": 16.0, "goalHistoryShots": 147.0, "goalExpected": 0.05524582776311711, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.05524582776311711, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.05374749577694559, "goalProbability": 0.05374749577694559, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12852301105957903, "modelSOG": 0.46349180327868844, "historyGames": 150, "seasonGames": { "2024": 80, "2025": 68, "2026": 2 }, "historyGoals": 16.0, "historyShots": 147.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.10884353741496598, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.11681093565165143, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 37.60486747829255, "btb": { "id": "8479390", "name": "Taylor Raddysh", "score": 37.60486747829255, "components": { "Goal model": 16.511627906976745, "SOG model": 5.813953488372093, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 41.627906976744185, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 32.327023498694516, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 6, "goalieH2HShots": 5, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 382 } }, { "id": "8475171", "name": "Oliver Ekman-Larsson", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "EDM", "position": "D", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 0.45454545454545453, "priorSOG": 1.3846153846153846, "currentTOI": 17.446969696969695, "currentFiveTOI": 14.742424242424242, "ppShare": 0.05537165212157689, "rate": 1.0818018911722622, "fifty": 0.8187292338417147, "inputs": { "Player": "Oliver Ekman-Larsson", "Player_ID": "8475171", "Team": "TOR", "Opponent": "EDM", "Position": "D", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 0.9551792272393427, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 0.7344777396651954, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 11, "Prior_GP": 78, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 1.8499486125385407, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.760852075553261, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 7.997038134024435, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 15.658094405594404, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 14.742424242424242, "Current_PP_Share": 0.05537165212157689, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.46532099883859884, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 184.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3323.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 6, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.3053872053872055, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.7678936042490815, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.23839640258538844, "Other_State_SOG": 0.03461538461538462, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9716922687020597, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.3846153846153846, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/toronto-maple-leafs/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:41.366565+00:00", "priorGP": 78, "currentTotalSOG": 5.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.2787878787878788, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.45 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.506, "currentIXG": 0.046, "priorTOI": 20.59594017094017, "priorPPTOI": 1.7314102564102565, "deploymentChange": -3.1489704739704756, "ppTOIChange": -1.4526223776223777, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020891", "date": "20260203", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 22.316666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020499", "date": "20251213", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 19.533333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2024020833", "date": "20250201", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 5.15 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 1.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "EDM", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 239.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 26.555555555555557, "mostAllowedRank": 18, "fiveSogAllowed60": 25.09786377362711, "pkSogAllowed60": 57.79388917659244, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 40.111111111111114, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 74.0, "C": 64.0, "L": 57.0, "R": 44.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.111111111111111, "L": 6.333333333333333, "R": 4.888888888888889, "D": 8.222222222222221 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 28.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 24.5, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 26.555555555555557, "oppPosSogAllowed": 8.222222222222221, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8477465", "team": "EDM", "name": "Tristan Jarry", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 3, "savePct": 0.8732394366197183, "gaa": 2.974387221151198, "gsax": -2.739, "goalsAllowed": 9.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 6.261, "shotsAgainst": 71.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0280169850571896, "factor": 1.0280169850571896, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-23T18:50:20.460Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.05368684939473564, "goalHistoryGoals": 12.0, "goalHistoryShots": 231.0, "goalExpected": 0.025265563906314282, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.025973428832738957, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.024949060693346826, "goalProbability": 0.025639020826659923, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.06899601333130966, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 0.4706099201416677, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 1.8499486125385407, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 14.742424242424242, "Current_PP_Share": 0.05537165212157689, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.3053872053872055, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.23839640258538844, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9913228889134689, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0841268017286898, "Position_Factor": 1.0175103897192914, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 184.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3323.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.760852075553261, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 7.997038134024435, "Prior_5v5_Min": 17.79465811965812, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.46532099883859884, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0564712492976214, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.34640522875817, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0564712492976214, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0841268017286898, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 1.8499486125385407, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020891", "date": "20260203", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 22.316666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020499", "date": "20251213", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 19.533333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2024020833", "date": "20250201", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 5.15 }, { "gameId": "2024020274", "date": "20241116", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 22.466666666666665 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 132, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 22, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477465", "goalieName": "Tristan Jarry", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8475171", "goals": 2, "sog": 16, "shootingPct": 0.125, "gamesWithAttempts": 9, "recordedAttempts": 19, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020499", "date": "20251213", "season": 2025, "goals": 1, "sog": 3, "attempts": 3 }, { "gameId": "2025020396", "date": "20251129", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2025020199", "date": "20251103", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2 }, { "gameId": "2024020433", "date": "20241207", "season": 2024, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2 }, { "gameId": "2023020834", "date": "20240214", "season": 2023, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2023020406", "date": "20231208", "season": 2023, "goals": 1, "sog": 3, "attempts": 3 }, { "gameId": "2022020125", "date": "20221028", "season": 2022, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2021020376", "date": "20211204", "season": 2021, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2021020295", "date": "20211124", "season": 2021, "goals": 0, "sog": 4, "attempts": 5 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477465", "goalieName": "Tristan Jarry", "opponent": "TOR", "games": 5, "availableGames": 13, "shotsAgainst": 102.0, "goalsAgainst": 16.0, "savePct": 0.8431372549019608, "gaa": 4.100811618966254, "gsax": -2.944, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020499", "date": "20251213", "goalieTeam": "EDM", "opponent": "TOR", "shotsAgainst": 28.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.854 }, { "gameId": "2025020396", "date": "20251129", "goalieTeam": "PIT", "opponent": "TOR", "shotsAgainst": 13.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 2107.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.626 }, { "gameId": "2025020199", "date": "20251103", "goalieTeam": "PIT", "opponent": "TOR", "shotsAgainst": 20.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3452.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.296 }, { "gameId": "2024020433", "date": "20241207", "goalieTeam": "PIT", "opponent": "TOR", "shotsAgainst": 27.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3571.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.846 }, { "gameId": "2023020466", "date": "20231216", "goalieTeam": "PIT", "opponent": "TOR", "shotsAgainst": 14.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 1316.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.434 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.4706099201416677, "adjustedSOG": 0.4706099201416677, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.48021420422619154, "adjustedSOG": 0.4706099201416677, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.05368684939473564, "goalHistoryGoals": 12.0, "goalHistoryShots": 231.0, "goalExpected": 0.02578118765950437, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.026503498808917305, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.0254516905231479, "goalProbability": 0.026155363466724074, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.07036729435761745 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05770347149657495, "modelSOG": 0.4706099201416677, "historyGames": 166, "seasonGames": { "2024": 77, "2025": 78, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 12.0, "historyShots": 231.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.05194805194805195, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.05368684939473564, "goalieFactor": 1.0280169850571896, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 41.76544681806119, "btb": { "id": "8475171", "name": "Oliver Ekman-Larsson", "score": 41.76544681806119, "components": { "Goal model": 5.116279069767442, "SOG model": 6.27906976744186, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 4.4186046511627906, "Goalie": 92.20588235294117, "Team H2H": 64.13651622528907, "Goalie H2H": 61.45311381531854 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": 16, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 324 } }, { "id": "8475791", "name": "Taylor Hall", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "STL", "position": "L", "currentGP": 8, "currentSOG": 2.125, "priorSOG": 1.7125, "currentTOI": 13.016666666666667, "currentFiveTOI": 10.939583333333333, "ppShare": 0.24440179142674345, "rate": 1.6686054049606778, "fifty": 1.7646097553149183, "inputs": { "Player": "Taylor Hall", "Player_ID": "8475791", "Team": "CAR", "Opponent": "STL", "Position": "L", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.8849214830704935, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 2.070416342820102, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 8, "Prior_GP": 80, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 10.283755475147592, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.46138646467973, "Current_PP_SOG60": 4.712041884816754, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 11.661052086032651, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 11.453333333333333, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 10.939583333333333, "Current_PP_Share": 0.24440179142674345, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.3638991876500731, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 764.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3126.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 7, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 6.0017676767676775, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 1.6820014549624684, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 1.4668427719291446, "Other_State_SOG": 0.04625, "Environment_Proxy": 1.00049372648272, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.7125, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:41.386132+00:00", "priorGP": 80, "currentTotalSOG": 17.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.5916666666666666, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.12 SOG/game in 8 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 8 games. 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Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476932", "goalieName": "Anthony Stolarz", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8482166", "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 2, "recordedAttempts": 3, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021202", "date": "20260402", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2 }, { "gameId": "2024020971", "date": "20250303", "season": 2024, "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 1 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476932", "goalieName": "Anthony Stolarz", "opponent": "EDM", "games": 5, "availableGames": 5, "shotsAgainst": 140.0, "goalsAgainst": 14.0, "savePct": 0.9, "gaa": 3.2642487046632125, "gsax": -1.5539999999999994, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020891", "date": "20260203", "goalieTeam": "TOR", "opponent": "EDM", "shotsAgainst": 36.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.709 }, { "gameId": "2024020274", "date": "20241116", "goalieTeam": "TOR", "opponent": "EDM", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3640.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.584 }, { "gameId": "2022020660", "date": "20230111", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "EDM", "shotsAgainst": 16.0, "goalsAgainst": 0.0, "seconds": 1200.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.249 }, { "gameId": "2021020049", "date": "20211019", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "EDM", "shotsAgainst": 36.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3461.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.959 }, { "gameId": "2018020494", "date": "20181214", "goalieTeam": "PHI", "opponent": "EDM", "shotsAgainst": 22.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3539.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.945 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.2, "adjustedSOG": 0.2, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.2, "adjustedSOG": 0.2, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.07644133859887284, "goalHistoryGoals": 8.0, "goalHistoryShots": 80.0, "goalExpected": 0.015288267719774568, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.015288267719774568, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.015171995442869079, "goalProbability": 0.015171995442869079, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05759440947797112, "modelSOG": 0.2, "historyGames": 85, "seasonGames": { "2024": 30, "2025": 50, "2026": 5 }, "historyGoals": 8.0, "historyShots": 80.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.1, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.07644133859887284, "goalieFactor": 0.9986972168772468, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8479400", "name": "Pierre-Luc Dubois", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "position": "C", "currentGP": 4, "currentSOG": 1.5, "priorSOG": 1.4482758620689655, "currentTOI": 17.104166666666668, "currentFiveTOI": 12.6125, "ppShare": 0.6226415094339622, "rate": 1.424328027458753, "fifty": 1.4528557578338455, "inputs": { "Player": "Pierre-Luc Dubois", "Player_ID": "8479400", "Team": "WSH", "Opponent": "BUF", "Position": "C", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.3401031307233007, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.3483153864666106, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 4, "Prior_GP": 29, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 7.135777998017839, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.510498574267692, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 10.476190476190476, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 12.819439655172413, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 12.6125, "Current_PP_Share": 0.6226415094339622, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.49645024301972945, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 693.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1113.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 4, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.500555555555556, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 2.6318534628655654, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 2.8022327044025155, "Other_State_SOG": 0.06206896551724138, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9496227273390297, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.4482758620689655, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Illness: check dressing status" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:41.423780+00:00", "priorGP": 29, "currentTotalSOG": 6.0, "currentPPTOI": 2.8875, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.50 SOG/game in 4 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 4 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.96, "currentIXG": 0.24, "priorTOI": 16.82183908045977, "priorPPTOI": 2.1724137931034484, "deploymentChange": 0.2823275862068968, "ppTOIChange": 0.7150862068965518, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021213", "date": "20260404", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 12.966666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025021028", "date": "20260312", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 19.683333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024021171", "date": "20250330", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 18.383333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020637", "date": "20250106", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 20.716666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2024020480", "date": "20241214", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 16.1 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 5, "h2hSOG": 1.2, "opponentDefense": { "team": "BUF", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 257.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 25.7, "mostAllowedRank": 24, "fiveSogAllowed60": 21.645723550871505, "pkSogAllowed60": 62.21198156682028, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 40.1, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 61.0, "L": 55.0, "D": 65.0, "C": 76.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.6, "L": 5.5, "R": 6.1, "D": 6.5 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 30.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.25, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 25.7, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.6, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8480045", "team": "BUF", "name": "Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 8, "savePct": 0.8629441624365483, "gaa": 3.5349310833909153, "gsax": -3.6580000000000013, "goalsAllowed": 27.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 23.342, "shotsAgainst": 197.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.035448902624297, "factor": 1.035448902624297, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T15:43:35.500Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.13395968842849112, "goalHistoryGoals": 26.0, "goalHistoryShots": 190.0, "goalExpected": 0.1813743676222597, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.18780388991864463, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.16587696841914737, "goalProbability": 0.1712227771347156, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.5345808715568223, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 4, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.3539473684210526, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 7.135777998017839, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 12.6125, "Current_PP_Share": 0.6226415094339622, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.500555555555556, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 2.8022327044025155, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.922717716387106, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.1429256259066152, "Position_Factor": 0.981671103829613, "Input_GP": 4, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 693.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1113.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.510498574267692, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 10.476190476190476, "Prior_5v5_Min": 13.302298850574712, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.49645024301972945, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9026315789473685, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.437908496732026, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9026315789473685, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.1429256259066152, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 7.135777998017839, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 1.3333333333333333 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021213", "date": "20260404", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 12.966666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025021028", "date": "20260312", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 19.683333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024021171", "date": "20250330", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 18.383333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020637", "date": "20250106", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 20.716666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2024020480", "date": "20241214", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 16.1 } ], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "NHL.com October 20 game-specific projected lineup", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 44, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 15, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480045", "goalieName": "Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8479400", "goals": 1, "sog": 13, "shootingPct": 0.07692307692307693, "gamesWithAttempts": 6, "recordedAttempts": 19, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021028", "date": "20260312", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2 }, { "gameId": "2024020637", "date": "20250106", "season": 2024, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 4 }, { "gameId": "2024020480", "date": "20241214", "season": 2024, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2 }, { "gameId": "2023020824", "date": "20240213", "season": 2023, "goals": 0, "sog": 4, "attempts": 5 }, { "gameId": "2022020668", "date": "20230112", "season": 2022, "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 3 }, { "gameId": "2021020446", "date": "20211214", "season": 2021, "goals": 1, "sog": 3, "attempts": 3 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480045", "goalieName": "Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen", "opponent": "WSH", "games": 5, "availableGames": 10, "shotsAgainst": 138.0, "goalsAgainst": 13.0, "savePct": 0.9057971014492754, "gaa": 2.5547246028713357, "gsax": 1.2270000000000003, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021028", "date": "20260312", "goalieTeam": "BUF", "opponent": "WSH", "shotsAgainst": 22.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3513.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.736 }, { "gameId": "2025020186", "date": "20251101", "goalieTeam": "BUF", "opponent": "WSH", "shotsAgainst": 34.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3868.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.692 }, { "gameId": "2024020637", "date": "20250106", "goalieTeam": "BUF", "opponent": "WSH", "shotsAgainst": 28.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3900.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.29 }, { "gameId": "2024020480", "date": "20241214", "goalieTeam": "BUF", "opponent": "WSH", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3438.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.234 }, { "gameId": "2023021255", "date": "20240411", "goalieTeam": "BUF", "opponent": "WSH", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.275 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.3539473684210526, "adjustedSOG": 1.3539473684210526, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.3539473684210526, "adjustedSOG": 1.3539473684210526, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.13395968842849112, "goalHistoryGoals": 26.0, "goalHistoryShots": 190.0, "goalExpected": 0.1813743676222597, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.18780388991864463, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.16587696841914737, "goalProbability": 0.1712227771347156, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.5345808715568223 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12848309644262426, "modelSOG": 1.3539473684210526, "historyGames": 115, "seasonGames": { "2024": 82, "2025": 29, "2026": 4 }, "historyGoals": 26.0, "historyShots": 190.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.1368421052631579, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.13395968842849112, "goalieFactor": 1.035448902624297, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8478542", "name": "Evan Rodrigues", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "LAK", "position": "C", "currentGP": 9, "currentSOG": 1.5555555555555556, "priorSOG": 2.318840579710145, "currentTOI": 15.722222222222221, "currentFiveTOI": 12.051851851851852, "ppShare": 0.3567488047076131, "rate": 2.1383711474302656, "fifty": 2.003979341350153, "inputs": { "Player": "Evan Rodrigues", "Player_ID": "8478542", "Team": "NJD", "Opponent": "LAK", "Position": "C", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 2.0276054099074523, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.6157793416138782, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 9, "Prior_GP": 69, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 6.084818684695759, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 7.902184166606197, "Current_PP_SOG60": 11.1340206185567, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 8.335603377826205, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 12.430789049919484, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 12.051851851851852, "Current_PP_Share": 0.3567488047076131, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.3468953000577017, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 970.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2719.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 4, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.972354497354498, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 1.7591829880655343, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 1.7738815235137417, "Other_State_SOG": 0.2739130434782609, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9908219918860978, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 2.318840579710145, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-jersey-devils/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:41.442618+00:00", "priorGP": 69, "currentTotalSOG": 14.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.7962962962962965, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.56 SOG/game in 9 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 9 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.8170000000000002, "currentIXG": 0.2018888888888889, "priorTOI": 16.993236714975843, "priorPPTOI": 1.7734299516908212, "deploymentChange": -1.271014492753622, "ppTOIChange": 0.02286634460547532, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020529", "date": "20251217", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 12.05 }, { "gameId": "2025020226", "date": "20251106", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "away", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 9.0, "toi": 18.366666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020808", "date": "20250129", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 14.066666666666666 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 3.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "LAK", "games": 7, "sogAllowedTotal": 193.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.571428571428573, "mostAllowedRank": 14, "fiveSogAllowed60": 25.227874154660395, "pkSogAllowed60": 57.61396702230844, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 39.142857142857146, "positionUnassignedSOG": 1.0, "positionTotals": { "C": 86.0, "D": 47.0, "R": 28.0, "L": 31.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 12.285714285714286, "L": 4.428571428571429, "R": 4.0, "D": 6.714285714285714 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 27.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 29.5, "positionSourceDifference": 1.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.571428571428573, "oppPosSogAllowed": 12.285714285714286, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8476341", "team": "LAK", "name": "Anton Forsberg", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 3, "savePct": 0.8833333333333333, "gaa": 2.6313041662315966, "gsax": -2.1049999999999995, "goalsAllowed": 7.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.8950000000000005, "shotsAgainst": 60.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0218332511814823, "factor": 1.0218332511814823, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T19:00:24.293Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.09393831476499893, "goalHistoryGoals": 28.0, "goalHistoryShots": 335.0, "goalExpected": 0.16265931656295513, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.16621069827848237, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.1501193206296707, "goalProbability": 0.15313221819347392, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.3012897563803213, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 9, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.731554552259877, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 6.084818684695759, "Current_PP_SOG60": 11.1340206185567, "Current_5v5_Min": 12.051851851851852, "Current_PP_Share": 0.3567488047076131, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.972354497354498, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.7738815235137417, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9946407827573338, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.085978140946376, "Position_Factor": 1.0294279115633451, "Input_GP": 9, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 970.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2719.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 7.902184166606197, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 8.335603377826205, "Prior_5v5_Min": 13.314975845410629, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.3468953000577017, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.124246374450057, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.437908496732026, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.124246374450057, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.085978140946376, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 6.084818684695759, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 11.1340206185567, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 4.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020529", "date": "20251217", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 12.05 }, { "gameId": "2025020226", "date": "20251106", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "away", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 9.0, "toi": 18.366666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020808", "date": "20250129", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 14.066666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020760", "date": "20250122", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 9.4 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 185, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 24, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476341", "goalieName": "Anton Forsberg", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8478542", "goals": 0, "sog": 11, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 6, "recordedAttempts": 14, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020529", "date": "20251217", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 3 }, { "gameId": "2025020226", "date": "20251106", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 5, "attempts": 5 }, { "gameId": "2024021210", "date": "20250405", "season": 2024, "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2023021205", "date": "20240404", "season": 2023, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2022020680", "date": "20230114", "season": 2022, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 3 }, { "gameId": "2021020707", "date": "20220120", "season": 2021, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476341", "goalieName": "Anton Forsberg", "opponent": "NJD", "games": 5, "availableGames": 11, "shotsAgainst": 115.0, "goalsAgainst": 15.0, "savePct": 0.8695652173913043, "gaa": 4.18280402788536, "gsax": -4.362, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021050", "date": "20260314", "goalieTeam": "LAK", "opponent": "NJD", "shotsAgainst": 27.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3466.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.948 }, { "gameId": "2024020737", "date": "20250119", "goalieTeam": "OTT", "opponent": "NJD", "shotsAgainst": 26.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.295 }, { "gameId": "2024020062", "date": "20241017", "goalieTeam": "OTT", "opponent": "NJD", "shotsAgainst": 35.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3470.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.298 }, { "gameId": "2023021224", "date": "20240406", "goalieTeam": "OTT", "opponent": "NJD", "shotsAgainst": 9.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 994.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 0.874 }, { "gameId": "2022020274", "date": "20221119", "goalieTeam": "OTT", "opponent": "NJD", "shotsAgainst": 18.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 1380.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.223 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.731554552259877, "adjustedSOG": 1.731554552259877, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.731554552259877, "adjustedSOG": 1.731554552259877, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.09393831476499893, "goalHistoryGoals": 28.0, "goalHistoryShots": 335.0, "goalExpected": 0.16265931656295513, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.16265931656295513, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.1501193206296707, "goalProbability": 0.1501193206296707, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1286316692277454, "modelSOG": 1.731554552259877, "historyGames": 160, "seasonGames": { "2024": 82, "2025": 69, "2026": 9 }, "historyGoals": 28.0, "historyShots": 335.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.08358208955223881, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.09393831476499893, "goalieFactor": 1.0218332511814823, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 56.69130180225108, "btb": { "id": "8478542", "name": "Evan Rodrigues", "score": 56.69130180225108, "components": { "Goal model": 55.81395348837209, "SOG model": 66.74418604651163, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 64.65116279069767, "Goalie": 76.61764705882354, "Team H2H": 59.06378217083178, "Goalie H2H": 42.048534916741964 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": 11, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 127 } }, { "id": "8476473", "name": "Connor Murphy", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "TOR", "position": "D", "currentGP": 9, "currentSOG": 0.6666666666666666, "priorSOG": 0.875, "currentTOI": 21.387037037037036, "currentFiveTOI": 18.81851851851852, "ppShare": 0.00473746545598105, "rate": 1.0796333912860223, "fifty": 0.9842147151016045, "inputs": { "Player": "Connor Murphy", "Player_ID": "8476473", "Team": "EDM", "Opponent": "TOR", "Position": "D", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.0075902134171908, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 0.8955331504573204, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 9, "Prior_GP": 80, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.125565833497343, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.5095767863287075, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 17.532462962962963, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 18.81851851851852, "Current_PP_Share": 0.00473746545598105, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.007314924792142851, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 12.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2533.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 5, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.365824915824916, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.02956946883921373, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.025420410181562967, "Other_State_SOG": 0.022500000000000003, "Environment_Proxy": 1.1073475417853031, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 0.875, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:41.461714+00:00", "priorGP": 80, "currentTotalSOG": 6.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.022222222222222223, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.67 SOG/game in 9 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 9 games. 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Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476932", "goalieName": "Anthony Stolarz", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8476473", "goals": 0, "sog": 7, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 4, "recordedAttempts": 10, "log": [ { "gameId": "2024020394", "date": "20241202", "season": 2024, "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 4 }, { "gameId": "2023020168", "date": "20231104", "season": 2023, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2022020818", "date": "20230207", "season": 2022, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 3 }, { "gameId": "2021020907", "date": "20220308", "season": 2021, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476932", "goalieName": "Anthony Stolarz", "opponent": "EDM", "games": 5, "availableGames": 5, "shotsAgainst": 140.0, "goalsAgainst": 14.0, "savePct": 0.9, "gaa": 3.2642487046632125, "gsax": -1.5539999999999994, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020891", "date": "20260203", "goalieTeam": "TOR", "opponent": "EDM", "shotsAgainst": 36.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.709 }, { "gameId": "2024020274", "date": "20241116", "goalieTeam": "TOR", "opponent": "EDM", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3640.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.584 }, { "gameId": "2022020660", "date": "20230111", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "EDM", "shotsAgainst": 16.0, "goalsAgainst": 0.0, "seconds": 1200.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.249 }, { "gameId": "2021020049", "date": "20211019", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "EDM", "shotsAgainst": 36.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3461.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.959 }, { "gameId": "2018020494", "date": "20181214", "goalieTeam": "PHI", "opponent": "EDM", "shotsAgainst": 22.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3539.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.945 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.7409478619443033, "adjustedSOG": 0.7409478619443033, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.7409478619443033, "adjustedSOG": 0.7409478619443033, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.049124771741611506, "goalHistoryGoals": 7.0, "goalHistoryShots": 160.0, "goalExpected": 0.036398894590448976, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.036398894590448976, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.035744419576596104, "goalProbability": 0.035744419576596104, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.057724406528189914, "modelSOG": 0.7409478619443033, "historyGames": 157, "seasonGames": { "2024": 68, "2025": 80, "2026": 9 }, "historyGoals": 7.0, "historyShots": 160.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.04375, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.049124771741611506, "goalieFactor": 0.9986972168772468, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 36.47979944327453, "btb": { "id": "8476473", "name": "Connor Murphy", "score": 36.47979944327453, "components": { "Goal model": 9.30232558139535, "SOG model": 14.651162790697674, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 0.9302325581395349, "Goalie": 60.73529411764706, "Team H2H": 54.40134278254383, "Goalie H2H": 45.60022102500346 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": 7, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 391 } }, { "id": "8481721", "name": "Arseny Gritsyuk", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "LAK", "position": "L", "currentGP": 9, "currentSOG": 2.2222222222222223, "priorSOG": 2.257575757575758, "currentTOI": 15.314814814814817, "currentFiveTOI": 13.411111111111111, "ppShare": 0.2809856564913571, "rate": 2.246204972682619, "fifty": 2.2477341477219186, "inputs": { "Player": "Arseny Gritsyuk", "Player_ID": "8481721", "Team": "NJD", "Opponent": "LAK", "Position": "R", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 2.111081853164612, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.9435724779054793, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 9, "Prior_GP": 66, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 8.947804473902236, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 8.752621517789201, "Current_PP_SOG60": 9.424083769633508, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 10.679851668726823, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 13.469671717171718, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 13.411111111111111, "Current_PP_Share": 0.2809856564913571, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.2633661768876786, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 764.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2719.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 4, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.972354497354498, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 1.3708772031523866, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 1.3971602927469056, "Other_State_SOG": 0.05454545454545455, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9908219918860978, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 2.257575757575758, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-jersey-devils/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:41.480490+00:00", "priorGP": 66, "currentTotalSOG": 20.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.4148148148148147, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.22 SOG/game in 9 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 9 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.911, "currentIXG": 0.21233333333333335, "priorTOI": 15.174242424242424, "priorPPTOI": 1.0214646464646466, "deploymentChange": 0.1405723905723928, "ppTOIChange": 0.3933501683501681, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021050", "date": "20260314", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "home", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 8.0, "toi": 15.883333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020191", "date": "20251101", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 11.3 } ], "h2hGames": 2, "h2hAvailableGames": 2, "h2hSOG": 2.5, "opponentDefense": { "team": "LAK", "games": 7, "sogAllowedTotal": 193.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.571428571428573, "mostAllowedRank": 14, "fiveSogAllowed60": 25.227874154660395, "pkSogAllowed60": 57.61396702230844, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 39.142857142857146, "positionUnassignedSOG": 1.0, "positionTotals": { "C": 86.0, "D": 47.0, "R": 28.0, "L": 31.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 12.285714285714286, "L": 4.428571428571429, "R": 4.0, "D": 6.714285714285714 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 27.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 29.5, "positionSourceDifference": 1.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.571428571428573, "oppPosSogAllowed": 4.428571428571429, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8476341", "team": "LAK", "name": "Anton Forsberg", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 3, "savePct": 0.8833333333333333, "gaa": 2.6313041662315966, "gsax": -2.1049999999999995, "goalsAllowed": 7.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.8950000000000005, "shotsAgainst": 60.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0218332511814823, "factor": 1.0218332511814823, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T19:00:24.293Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.11098115755193229, "goalHistoryGoals": 17.0, "goalHistoryShots": 169.0, "goalExpected": 0.2369727945982542, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.2421466811458957, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.2109872468654436, "goalProbability": 0.21505896694291662, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.4071720077473029, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 9, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 2.135252504348458, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 8.947804473902236, "Current_PP_SOG60": 9.424083769633508, "Current_5v5_Min": 13.411111111111111, "Current_PP_Share": 0.2809856564913571, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.972354497354498, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.3971602927469056, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9946407827573338, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.085978140946376, "Position_Factor": 0.9860189907303214, "Input_GP": 9, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 764.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2719.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 8.752621517789201, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 10.679851668726823, "Prior_5v5_Min": 13.606313131313131, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.2633661768876786, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9484677021228117, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.062091503267974, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9484677021228117, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.085978140946376, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 8.947804473902236, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 9.424083769633508, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021050", "date": "20260314", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "home", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 8.0, "toi": 15.883333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020191", "date": "20251101", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 11.3 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 190, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 15, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476341", "goalieName": "Anton Forsberg", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8481721", "goals": 1, "sog": 5, "shootingPct": 0.2, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 5, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021050", "date": "20260314", "season": 2025, "goals": 1, "sog": 5, "attempts": 5 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476341", "goalieName": "Anton Forsberg", "opponent": "NJD", "games": 5, "availableGames": 11, "shotsAgainst": 115.0, "goalsAgainst": 15.0, "savePct": 0.8695652173913043, "gaa": 4.18280402788536, "gsax": -4.362, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021050", "date": "20260314", "goalieTeam": "LAK", "opponent": "NJD", "shotsAgainst": 27.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3466.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.948 }, { "gameId": "2024020737", "date": "20250119", "goalieTeam": "OTT", "opponent": "NJD", "shotsAgainst": 26.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.295 }, { "gameId": "2024020062", "date": "20241017", "goalieTeam": "OTT", "opponent": "NJD", "shotsAgainst": 35.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3470.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.298 }, { "gameId": "2023021224", "date": "20240406", "goalieTeam": "OTT", "opponent": "NJD", "shotsAgainst": 9.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 994.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 0.874 }, { "gameId": "2022020274", "date": "20221119", "goalieTeam": "OTT", "opponent": "NJD", "shotsAgainst": 18.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 1380.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.223 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 2.135252504348458, "adjustedSOG": 2.135252504348458, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 2.135252504348458, "adjustedSOG": 2.135252504348458, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.11098115755193229, "goalHistoryGoals": 17.0, "goalHistoryShots": 169.0, "goalExpected": 0.2369727945982542, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.2369727945982542, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.2109872468654436, "goalProbability": 0.2109872468654436, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12853931381469785, "modelSOG": 2.135252504348458, "historyGames": 75, "seasonGames": { "2025": 66, "2026": 9 }, "historyGoals": 17.0, "historyShots": 169.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.10059171597633136, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.11098115755193229, "goalieFactor": 1.0218332511814823, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 61.785327204358374, "btb": { "id": "8481721", "name": "Arseny Gritsyuk", "score": 61.785327204358374, "components": { "Goal model": 75.5813953488372, "SOG model": 79.53488372093024, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 66.51162790697674, "Goalie": 76.61764705882354, "Team H2H": 54.02523933855527, "Goalie H2H": 52.75590551181102 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 2, "goalieH2HShots": 5, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 69 } }, { "id": "8481725", "name": "Elmer Soderblom", "team": "PIT", "opponent": "NSH", "position": "R", "currentGP": 4, "currentSOG": 0.25, "priorSOG": 1.1694915254237288, "currentTOI": 11.020833333333334, "currentFiveTOI": 10.383333333333333, "ppShare": 0.0, "rate": 1.1366573379160454, "fifty": 0.8053557490230479, "inputs": { "Player": "Elmer Soderblom", "Player_ID": "8481725", "Team": "PIT", "Opponent": "NSH", "Position": "L", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.1306277191783984, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 0.6909063193031645, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 4, "Prior_GP": 59, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 1.4446227929373996, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.5309985802177, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 10.491553672316384, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 10.383333333333333, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.038604265456955826, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1271.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 2, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.130208333333334, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.05941437730484608, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.0, "Other_State_SOG": 0.0, "Environment_Proxy": 1.0738773444064478, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.1694915254237288, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/pittsburgh-penguins/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:41.501219+00:00", "priorGP": 59, "currentTotalSOG": 1.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.0, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.25 SOG/game in 4 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 4 games. 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MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020361", "date": "20251126", "team": "DET", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 11.3 } ], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 103, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. 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Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477424", "goalieName": "Juuse Saros", "opponent": "PIT", "games": 5, "availableGames": 13, "shotsAgainst": 131.0, "goalsAgainst": 15.0, "savePct": 0.8854961832061069, "gaa": 3.034219250435467, "gsax": -2.5649999999999995, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020296", "date": "20251116", "goalieTeam": "NSH", "opponent": "PIT", "shotsAgainst": 21.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3562.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.064 }, { "gameId": "2025020281", "date": "20251114", "goalieTeam": "NSH", "opponent": "PIT", "shotsAgainst": 17.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3637.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.622 }, { "gameId": "2024020830", "date": "20250201", "goalieTeam": "NSH", "opponent": "PIT", "shotsAgainst": 35.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3527.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.258 }, { "gameId": "2024020515", "date": "20241219", "goalieTeam": "NSH", "opponent": "PIT", "shotsAgainst": 20.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3657.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.863 }, { "gameId": "2023021289", "date": "20240415", "goalieTeam": "NSH", "opponent": "PIT", "shotsAgainst": 38.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3414.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.628 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.24210686095931994, "adjustedSOG": 0.24210686095931994, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.24210686095931994, "adjustedSOG": 0.24210686095931994, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. 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Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.275, "currentIXG": 0.027500000000000004, "priorTOI": 20.29005376344086, "priorPPTOI": 0.07634408602150537, "deploymentChange": 2.1432795698924743, "ppTOIChange": 0.058655913978494637, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021240", "date": "20260407", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 18.983333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020693", "date": "20260108", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 20.666666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2025020465", "date": "20251208", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 22.083333333333332 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 1.3333333333333333, "opponentDefense": { "team": "SEA", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 311.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 31.1, "mostAllowedRank": 3, "fiveSogAllowed60": 29.01212141229316, "pkSogAllowed60": 57.63738641280831, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 48.5, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 101.0, "R": 65.0, "L": 58.0, "D": 87.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.1, "L": 5.8, "R": 6.5, "D": 8.7 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 31.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 3, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 28.666666666666668, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 31.1, "oppPosSogAllowed": 8.7, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8478916", "team": "SEA", "name": "Joey Daccord", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 5, "savePct": 0.881578947368421, "gaa": 3.8855909336211547, "gsax": -2.3970000000000002, "goalsAllowed": 18.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 15.603, "shotsAgainst": 152.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.024854248577667, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Likely starter per Daily Faceoff; no Model Goal adjustment until confirmed.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T20:31:39.541Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.05337153055939816, "goalHistoryGoals": 8.0, "goalHistoryShots": 158.0, "goalExpected": 0.0628349534524626, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.0628349534524626, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.06090154414291753, "goalProbability": 0.06090154414291753, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.1773121886120994, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.573362208987547, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 18.47, "Current_PP_Share": 0.033360790774299834, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 3.9491666666666667, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.13174732289950578, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0689197555315912, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0920680305430235, "Position_Factor": 1.0046361324392672, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 81.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2428.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.985018272248927, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 17.72768817204301, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.014469467361061916, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0921263345195729, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.34640522875817, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0921263345195729, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0920680305430235, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 3.573362208987547, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 1.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 1.3333333333333333 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021240", "date": "20260407", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 18.983333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020693", "date": "20260108", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 20.666666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2025020465", "date": "20251208", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 22.083333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2024020033", "date": "20241012", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 25.95 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 102, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478916", "goalieName": "Joey Daccord", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8476463", "goals": 0, "sog": 4, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 3, "recordedAttempts": 4, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021240", "date": "20260407", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2 }, { "gameId": "2024020033", "date": "20241012", "season": 2024, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2023021307", "date": "20240418", "season": 2023, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478916", "goalieName": "Joey Daccord", "opponent": "MIN", "games": 5, "availableGames": 6, "shotsAgainst": 123.0, "goalsAgainst": 19.0, "savePct": 0.8455284552845528, "gaa": 4.3387250237868695, "gsax": -6.912000000000001, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021240", "date": "20260407", "goalieTeam": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 28.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3488.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.569 }, { "gameId": "2024020982", "date": "20250304", "goalieTeam": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 20.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3463.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.635 }, { "gameId": "2024020033", "date": "20241012", "goalieTeam": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 38.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3885.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.839 }, { "gameId": "2023021307", "date": "20240418", "goalieTeam": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.121 }, { "gameId": "2023020913", "date": "20240224", "goalieTeam": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 13.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 1329.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.924 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.1773121886120994, "adjustedSOG": 1.1773121886120994, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.20133896797153, "adjustedSOG": 1.1773121886120994, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.05337153055939816, "goalHistoryGoals": 8.0, "goalHistoryShots": 158.0, "goalExpected": 0.06411729944128837, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.06411729944128837, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.06210502147881354, "goalProbability": 0.06210502147881354, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05769854884324725, "modelSOG": 1.1773121886120994, "historyGames": 122, "seasonGames": { "2024": 50, "2025": 62, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 8.0, "historyShots": 158.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.05063291139240506, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.05337153055939816, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 38.019135518680116, "btb": { "id": "8476463", "name": "Jonas Brodin", "score": 38.019135518680116, "components": { "Goal model": 21.162790697674417, "SOG model": 39.76744186046512, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 2.3255813953488373, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 43.7709809772473, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Likely", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": 4, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 375 } }, { "id": "8482097", "name": "Jack Quinn", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "WSH", "position": "R", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 2.8, "priorSOG": 2.3292682926829267, "currentTOI": 19.69, "currentFiveTOI": 14.696666666666667, "ppShare": 0.7022613065326633, "rate": 2.874934136771361, "fifty": 2.9461896374693897, "inputs": { "Player": "Jack Quinn", "Player_ID": "8482097", "Team": "BUF", "Opponent": "WSH", "Position": "R", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 2.7856180788233598, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 2.9432960272776496, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 10, "Prior_GP": 82, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 7.348605125878884, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 8.30056379400199, "Current_PP_SOG60": 12.880143112701253, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 12.541191978156482, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 14.148703252032519, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 14.696666666666667, "Current_PP_Share": 0.7022613065326633, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.4504049870658581, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2236.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3184.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 5, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.493148148148148, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 3.4425801730324506, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 3.857625395495998, "Other_State_SOG": 0.08585365853658537, "Environment_Proxy": 1.0834850655013406, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 2.3292682926829267, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/buffalo-sabres/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:41.538819+00:00", "priorGP": 82, "currentTotalSOG": 28.0, "currentPPTOI": 3.7266666666666666, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.80 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 3.585, "currentIXG": 0.3585, "priorTOI": 15.65650406504065, "priorPPTOI": 2.158739837398374, "deploymentChange": 4.033495934959351, "ppTOIChange": 1.5679268292682926, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021213", "date": "20260404", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 6.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 8.0, "toi": 18.45 }, { "gameId": "2025021028", "date": "20260312", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 16.316666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020186", "date": "20251101", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 16.383333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024021171", "date": "20250330", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 16.65 }, { "gameId": "2024020637", "date": "20250106", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 14.433333333333334 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 5, "h2hSOG": 2.4, "opponentDefense": { "team": "WSH", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 263.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 29.22222222222222, "mostAllowedRank": 7, "fiveSogAllowed60": 28.540383918869974, "pkSogAllowed60": 52.820345614607106, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.111111111111114, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "L": 48.0, "D": 68.0, "C": 72.0, "R": 75.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 8.0, "L": 5.333333333333333, "R": 8.333333333333334, "D": 7.555555555555555 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 29.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27.5, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 29.22222222222222, "oppPosSogAllowed": 8.333333333333334, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8479292", "team": "WSH", "name": "Charlie Lindgren", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 2, "savePct": 0.896551724137931, "gaa": 3.061224489795918, "gsax": 0.2989999999999995, "goalsAllowed": 6.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 6.2989999999999995, "shotsAgainst": 58.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.99868053226692, "factor": 0.99868053226692, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T14:45:41.433Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.11957748856144577, "goalHistoryGoals": 40.0, "goalHistoryShots": 342.0, "goalExpected": 0.3684797208963082, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.3679935237942912, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.3082147617595494, "goalProbability": 0.3078783360035122, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.03364257560372064, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 3.0815141322102795, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 7.348605125878884, "Current_PP_SOG60": 12.880143112701253, "Current_5v5_Min": 14.696666666666667, "Current_PP_Share": 0.7022613065326633, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.493148148148148, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 3.857625395495998, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.2, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.053751909733539, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0558974457897532, "Position_Factor": 1.05, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2236.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3184.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 8.30056379400199, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 12.541191978156482, "Prior_5v5_Min": 12.870121951219511, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.4504049870658581, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.15, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.382352941176471, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0558974457897532, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 7.609101081685938, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 11.203319502074688, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 2.3333333333333335 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021213", "date": "20260404", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 6.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 8.0, "toi": 18.45 }, { "gameId": "2025021028", "date": "20260312", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 16.316666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020186", "date": "20251101", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 16.383333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024021171", "date": "20250330", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 16.65 }, { "gameId": "2024020637", "date": "20250106", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 14.433333333333334 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff latest reported chart; October 21 final lineup pending", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 224, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 56, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479292", "goalieName": "Charlie Lindgren", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8482097", "goals": 1, "sog": 6, "shootingPct": 0.16666666666666666, "gamesWithAttempts": 6, "recordedAttempts": 13, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021028", "date": "20260312", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 3 }, { "gameId": "2025020186", "date": "20251101", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2024020637", "date": "20250106", "season": 2024, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 3 }, { "gameId": "2023021255", "date": "20240411", "season": 2023, "goals": 1, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2023021189", "date": "20240402", "season": 2023, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 4 }, { "gameId": "2022021076", "date": "20230315", "season": 2022, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479292", "goalieName": "Charlie Lindgren", "opponent": "BUF", "games": 5, "availableGames": 8, "shotsAgainst": 128.0, "goalsAgainst": 16.0, "savePct": 0.875, "gaa": 3.275891486094523, "gsax": -2.283, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021028", "date": "20260312", "goalieTeam": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.161 }, { "gameId": "2025020186", "date": "20251101", "goalieTeam": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3892.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.677 }, { "gameId": "2024020637", "date": "20250106", "goalieTeam": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "shotsAgainst": 27.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3900.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.647 }, { "gameId": "2023021255", "date": "20240411", "goalieTeam": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "shotsAgainst": 16.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3458.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.149 }, { "gameId": "2023021189", "date": "20240402", "goalieTeam": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "shotsAgainst": 31.0, "goalsAgainst": 6.0, "seconds": 2733.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.083 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 3.0815141322102795, "adjustedSOG": 3.0815141322102795, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 3.144402175724775, "adjustedSOG": 3.0815141322102795, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.11957748856144577, "goalHistoryGoals": 40.0, "goalHistoryShots": 342.0, "goalExpected": 0.3759997152003145, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.3755035957084604, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.31339747141354257, "goalProbability": 0.31305675000367683, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.03407214098657407 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12853249944159034, "modelSOG": 3.0815141322102795, "historyGames": 166, "seasonGames": { "2024": 74, "2025": 82, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 40.0, "historyShots": 342.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.11695906432748537, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.11957748856144577, "goalieFactor": 0.99868053226692, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 68.15475319396158, "btb": { "id": "8482097", "name": "Jack Quinn", "score": 68.15475319396158, "components": { "Goal model": 92.79069767441861, "SOG model": 96.04651162790698, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 90.0, "Goalie": 87.05882352941177, "Team H2H": 45.3437771975631, "Goalie H2H": 52.86839145106862 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 5, "goalieH2HShots": 6, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 12 } }, { "id": "8482095", "name": "Tyler Kleven", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "NYR", "position": "D", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 1.0, "priorSOG": 1.2857142857142858, "currentTOI": 21.275, "currentFiveTOI": 17.173333333333332, "ppShare": 0.02881236823612087, "rate": 1.2885001733842802, "fifty": 1.1147513639965818, "inputs": { "Player": "Tyler Kleven", "Player_ID": "8482095", "Team": "OTT", "Opponent": "NYR", "Position": "D", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.2656092808925978, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.0638024534169095, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 10, "Prior_GP": 70, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.4456521739130435, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.469204388510421, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 23.68421052631579, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 16.6242619047619, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 17.173333333333332, "Current_PP_Share": 0.02881236823612087, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.021974586301614592, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 123.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 4269.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 5, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 6.001439393939394, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.16060472160426997, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.1729156817649439, "Other_State_SOG": 0.12000000000000001, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9482920490252438, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.2857142857142858, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/ottawa-senators/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:41.557151+00:00", "priorGP": 70, "currentTotalSOG": 10.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.205, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.00 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.0270000000000001, "currentIXG": 0.10270000000000001, "priorTOI": 17.348809523809525, "priorPPTOI": 0.10857142857142857, "deploymentChange": 3.926190476190474, "ppTOIChange": 0.09642857142857142, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021119", "date": "20260323", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "NYR", "venue": "away", "sog": 6.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 24.5 }, { "gameId": "2025020737", "date": "20260114", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "NYR", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 16.033333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2025020427", "date": "20251204", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "NYR", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 18.316666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024021003", "date": "20250308", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "NYR", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 10.383333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020750", "date": "20250121", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "NYR", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 14.7 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 6, "h2hSOG": 1.8, "opponentDefense": { "team": "NYR", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 283.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 25.727272727272727, "mostAllowedRank": 23, "fiveSogAllowed60": 24.897512126427788, "pkSogAllowed60": 40.17358958462492, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 39.81818181818182, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 106.0, "D": 82.0, "R": 57.0, "L": 38.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.636363636363637, "L": 3.4545454545454546, "R": 5.181818181818182, "D": 7.454545454545454 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 27.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.4, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 25.727272727272727, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.454545454545454, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8482193", "team": "NYR", "name": "Dylan Garand", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.9285714285714286, "gaa": 1.846928781306842, "gsax": 4.030999999999999, "goalsAllowed": 11.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 15.030999999999999, "shotsAgainst": 154.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9674872583533348, "factor": 0.9674872583533348, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T15:37:42.216Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.049541479113198145, "goalHistoryGoals": 8.0, "goalHistoryShots": 178.0, "goalExpected": 0.04980887381066558, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.048189450764748065, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.0485887532692569, "goalProbability": 0.0470467677436998, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.15419855255571005, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.005397390272835, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.4456521739130435, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 17.173333333333332, "Current_PP_Share": 0.02881236823612087, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 6.001439393939394, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.1729156817649439, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.3, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9864268368728425, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9197863814450764, "Position_Factor": 1.0097164911259575, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 123.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 4269.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.469204388510421, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 23.68421052631579, "Prior_5v5_Min": 15.343095238095238, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.021974586301614592, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0077105575326217, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.34640522875817, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0077105575326217, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9197863814450764, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 2.4456521739130435, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 1.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 2.3333333333333335 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021119", "date": "20260323", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "NYR", "venue": "away", "sog": 6.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 24.5 }, { "gameId": "2025020737", "date": "20260114", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "NYR", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 16.033333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2025020427", "date": "20251204", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "NYR", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 18.316666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024021003", "date": "20250308", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "NYR", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 10.383333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020750", "date": "20250121", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "NYR", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 14.7 }, { "gameId": "2024020170", "date": "20241101", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "NYR", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 12.75 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "lineupReviewedAt": "2026-10-22T12:25:32.333917+00:00", "lineupReviewNote": "Reported forward, defense and PP chart reviewed October22; matches existing assignments. Final dressing unconfirmed. Dated statistical inputs now include October21.", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 121, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482193", "goalieName": "Dylan Garand", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8482095", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482193", "goalieName": "Dylan Garand", "opponent": "OTT", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "No appearance found in the supplied historical files; this does not establish that the goalie has never faced the team." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.005397390272835, "adjustedSOG": 1.005397390272835, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.005397390272835, "adjustedSOG": 1.005397390272835, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.049541479113198145, "goalHistoryGoals": 8.0, "goalHistoryShots": 178.0, "goalExpected": 0.04980887381066558, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.048189450764748065, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.0485887532692569, "goalProbability": 0.0470467677436998, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.15419855255571005 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05772531193469085, "modelSOG": 1.005397390272835, "historyGames": 159, "seasonGames": { "2024": 79, "2025": 70, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 8.0, "historyShots": 178.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.0449438202247191, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.049541479113198145, "goalieFactor": 0.9674872583533348, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 38.68294152471846, "btb": { "id": "8482095", "name": "Tyler Kleven", "score": 38.68294152471846, "components": { "Goal model": 15.813953488372093, "SOG model": 29.53488372093023, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 26.976744186046513, "Goalie": 39.55882352941177, "Team H2H": 49.26566579634465, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 6, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 368 } }, { "id": "8480075", "name": "Cameron Crotty", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "NYR", "position": "D", "currentGP": 3, "currentSOG": 0.0, "priorSOG": 0.8333333333333334, "currentTOI": 11.15, "currentFiveTOI": 10.472222222222223, "ppShare": 0.004081632653061225, "rate": 0.6342891138474512, "fifty": 0.3852605233899789, "inputs": { "Player": "Cameron Crotty", "Player_ID": "8480075", "Team": "OTT", "Opponent": "NYR", "Position": "D", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 0.6488111495645339, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 0.39171458453395225, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 3, "Prior_GP": 6, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 0.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.6998972250770814, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 11.384722222222223, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 10.472222222222223, "Current_PP_Share": 0.004081632653061225, "Prior_PP_Share": 0, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 4.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 980.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 2, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 6.001439393939394, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.0171469696969697, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.024495670995671, "Other_State_SOG": 0.0, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9482920490252438, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 0.8333333333333334, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/ottawa-senators/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:41.575761+00:00", "priorGP": 6, "currentTotalSOG": 0.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.022222222222222223, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.00 SOG/game in 3 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 3 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.0, "currentIXG": 0.0, "priorTOI": 14.919444444444444, "priorPPTOI": 0, "deploymentChange": -3.769444444444444, "ppTOIChange": 0.022222222222222223, "h2hLog": [], "h2hGames": 0, "h2hAvailableGames": 0, "h2hSOG": null, "opponentDefense": { "team": "NYR", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 283.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 25.727272727272727, "mostAllowedRank": 23, "fiveSogAllowed60": 24.897512126427788, "pkSogAllowed60": 40.17358958462492, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 39.81818181818182, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 106.0, "D": 82.0, "R": 57.0, "L": 38.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.636363636363637, "L": 3.4545454545454546, "R": 5.181818181818182, "D": 7.454545454545454 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 27.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.4, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 25.727272727272727, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.454545454545454, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8482193", "team": "NYR", "name": "Dylan Garand", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.9285714285714286, "gaa": 1.846928781306842, "gsax": 4.030999999999999, "goalsAllowed": 11.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 15.030999999999999, "shotsAgainst": 154.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9674872583533348, "factor": 0.9674872583533348, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T15:37:42.216Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.05493278598542972, "goalHistoryGoals": 0.0, "goalHistoryShots": 5.0, "goalExpected": 0.0, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.0, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.0, "goalProbability": 0.0, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 3, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 0.0, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 10.472222222222223, "Current_PP_Share": 0.004081632653061225, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 6.001439393939394, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.024495670995671, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9864268368728425, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9197863814450764, "Position_Factor": 1.0097164911259575, "Input_GP": 3, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 4.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 980.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.6998972250770814, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 13.513888888888888, "Prior_PP_Share": 0, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0077105575326217, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.34640522875817, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0077105575326217, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9197863814450764, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 0, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "lineupReviewedAt": "2026-10-22T12:25:32.333917+00:00", "lineupReviewNote": "Reported forward, defense and PP chart reviewed October22; matches existing assignments. Final dressing unconfirmed. Dated statistical inputs now include October21.", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 9, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. 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Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.524, "currentIXG": 0.21771428571428572, "priorTOI": 14.354166666666666, "priorPPTOI": 0.34869791666666666, "deploymentChange": 0.4220238095238109, "ppTOIChange": -0.31536458333333334, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021050", "date": "20260314", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 16.383333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020617", "date": "20251230", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 17.05 }, { "gameId": "2024020809", "date": "20250129", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 9.0, "toi": 15.516666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020795", "date": "20250127", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 16.166666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2024020722", "date": "20250118", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 13.416666666666666 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 5, "h2hSOG": 1.6, "opponentDefense": { "team": "NJD", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 234.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 26.0, "mostAllowedRank": 22, "fiveSogAllowed60": 24.374647357532442, "pkSogAllowed60": 52.512155591572125, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 37.111111111111114, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "L": 41.0, "D": 63.0, "C": 78.0, "R": 52.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 8.666666666666666, "L": 4.555555555555555, "R": 5.777777777777778, "D": 7.0 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 25.0, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 25.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 26.0, "oppPosSogAllowed": 8.666666666666666, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8474596", "team": "NJD", "name": "Jake Allen", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 6, "savePct": 0.8834355828220859, "gaa": 3.1496062992125986, "gsax": -3.708, "goalsAllowed": 19.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 15.292, "shotsAgainst": 163.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0365218981504722, "factor": 1.0365218981504722, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T17:31:56.013Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.11967672190461702, "goalHistoryGoals": 27.0, "goalHistoryShots": 233.0, "goalExpected": 0.2113261640410718, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.21904419668070982, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.19049000923232556, "goalProbability": 0.19671378521528668, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.6223775982961116, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 7, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.765808426884385, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 6.867607783288821, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 12.48095238095238, "Current_PP_Share": 0.007276507276507277, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.575661375661376, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.0332948332948333, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.42857142857142855, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9778442581785296, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0469775686735434, "Position_Factor": 0.99548950284298, "Input_GP": 7, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 14.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1924.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.48254439867648, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 13.44286781179985, "Prior_5v5_Min": 11.56953125, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.0818149357152395, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9612917334888467, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.437908496732026, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9612917334888467, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0469775686735434, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 6.867607783288821, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 2.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021050", "date": "20260314", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 16.383333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020617", "date": "20251230", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 17.05 }, { "gameId": "2024020809", "date": "20250129", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 9.0, "toi": 15.516666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020795", "date": "20250127", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 16.166666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2024020722", "date": "20250118", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 13.416666666666666 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "ppAssignmentSourceDate": "2026-10-11T01:38:00.435Z", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 128, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 6, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8474596", "goalieName": "Jake Allen", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8476872", "goals": 0, "sog": 7, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 6, "recordedAttempts": 12, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021050", "date": "20260314", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2024020809", "date": "20250129", "season": 2024, "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 5 }, { "gameId": "2024020795", "date": "20250127", "season": 2024, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2 }, { "gameId": "2024020722", "date": "20250118", "season": 2024, "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2022020932", "date": "20230224", "season": 2022, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2022020280", "date": "20221119", "season": 2022, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8474596", "goalieName": "Jake Allen", "opponent": "LAK", "games": 5, "availableGames": 17, "shotsAgainst": 151.0, "goalsAgainst": 16.0, "savePct": 0.8940397350993378, "gaa": 3.2597623089983023, "gsax": 1.5839999999999996, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021050", "date": "20260314", "goalieTeam": "NJD", "opponent": "LAK", "shotsAgainst": 31.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.558 }, { "gameId": "2024020602", "date": "20250101", "goalieTeam": "NJD", "opponent": "LAK", "shotsAgainst": 23.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3431.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.828 }, { "gameId": "2023020309", "date": "20231125", "goalieTeam": "MTL", "opponent": "LAK", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.339 }, { "gameId": "2022020982", "date": "20230302", "goalieTeam": "MTL", "opponent": "LAK", "shotsAgainst": 33.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3509.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.849 }, { "gameId": "2022020439", "date": "20221210", "goalieTeam": "MTL", "opponent": "LAK", "shotsAgainst": 34.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3530.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.01 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.765808426884385, "adjustedSOG": 1.765808426884385, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.801845333555495, "adjustedSOG": 1.765808426884385, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.11967672190461702, "goalHistoryGoals": 27.0, "goalHistoryShots": 233.0, "goalExpected": 0.21563894289905286, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.21563894289905286, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.19397372914924838, "goalProbability": 0.19397372914924838, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12852348394237464, "modelSOG": 1.765808426884385, "historyGames": 151, "seasonGames": { "2024": 80, "2025": 64, "2026": 7 }, "historyGoals": 27.0, "historyShots": 233.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.11587982832618025, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.11967672190461702, "goalieFactor": 1.0365218981504722, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 56.85553647426662, "btb": { "id": "8476872", "name": "Scott Laughton", "score": 56.85553647426662, "components": { "Goal model": 69.76744186046511, "SOG model": 67.67441860465117, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 67.67441860465117, "Goalie": 55.44117647058823, "Team H2H": 50.91383812010444, "Goalie H2H": 45.696919464014364 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 5, "goalieH2HShots": 7, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 125 } }, { "id": "8476458", "name": "Ryan Strome", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "DET", "position": "R", "currentGP": 8, "currentSOG": 2.25, "priorSOG": 1.0961538461538463, "currentTOI": 13.91875, "currentFiveTOI": 12.291666666666666, "ppShare": 0.3052486187845304, "rate": 1.2041048740260294, "fifty": 1.6182911247077327, "inputs": { "Player": "Ryan Strome", "Player_ID": "8476458", "Team": "CGY", "Opponent": "DET", "Position": "C", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.133429317641286, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.3661074259031474, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 8, "Prior_GP": 52, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 10.372881355932204, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.2470918241069215, "Current_PP_SOG60": 8.144796380090497, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 1.852328273732956, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 12.100608974358973, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 12.291666666666666, "Current_PP_Share": 0.3052486187845304, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.3308057639376113, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 442.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1448.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 5, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.265740740740741, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 1.3348175157929671, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 1.3021114692040108, "Other_State_SOG": 0.01730769230769231, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9911254066849144, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.0961538461538463, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:41.613786+00:00", "priorGP": 52, "currentTotalSOG": 18.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.9208333333333333, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.25 SOG/game in 8 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 8 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.595, "currentIXG": 0.199375, "priorTOI": 13.29326923076923, "priorPPTOI": 1.2458333333333333, "deploymentChange": 0.6254807692307693, "ppTOIChange": -0.32500000000000007, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021063", "date": "20260316", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "DET", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 16.35 }, { "gameId": "2025020272", "date": "20251113", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "DET", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 13.783333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020908", "date": "20250223", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "DET", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 19.15 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 1.3333333333333333, "opponentDefense": { "team": "DET", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 243.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.0, "mostAllowedRank": 17, "fiveSogAllowed60": 24.49072666463971, "pkSogAllowed60": 47.14573539288113, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 41.22222222222222, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 39.0, "C": 96.0, "D": 73.0, "L": 35.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.666666666666666, "L": 3.888888888888889, "R": 4.333333333333333, "D": 8.11111111111111 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 29.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 2, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 28.5, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.0, "oppPosSogAllowed": 4.333333333333333, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8476434", "team": "DET", "name": "John Gibson", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 6, "savePct": 0.8734177215189873, "gaa": 3.5755077717634207, "gsax": -1.6310000000000002, "goalsAllowed": 20.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 18.369, "shotsAgainst": 158.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0182492009293351, "factor": 1.0182492009293351, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T17:52:44.365Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.10210602279787057, "goalHistoryGoals": 19.0, "goalHistoryShots": 212.0, "goalExpected": 0.2149154931286345, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.2188375291455661, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.19339039864893393, "goalProbability": 0.19654775487731277, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.31573562283788437, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 8, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 2.1048267990428142, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 10.372881355932204, "Current_PP_SOG60": 8.144796380090497, "Current_5v5_Min": 12.291666666666666, "Current_PP_Share": 0.3052486187845304, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.265740740740741, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.3021114692040108, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9801217943191682, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9957661672519493, "Position_Factor": 0.9777506151535487, "Input_GP": 8, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 442.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1448.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.2470918241069215, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 1.852328273732956, "Prior_5v5_Min": 11.654807692307692, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.3308057639376113, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.907679033649698, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.382352941176471, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.907679033649698, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9957661672519493, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 10.372881355932204, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 8.144796380090497, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 4.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021063", "date": "20260316", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "DET", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 16.35 }, { "gameId": "2025020272", "date": "20251113", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "DET", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 13.783333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020908", "date": "20250223", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "DET", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 19.15 }, { "gameId": "2024020271", "date": "20241115", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "DET", "venue": "home", "sog": 6.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 8.0, "toi": 17.516666666666666 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Reviewed October22 projected lineup and coach reports", "ppAssignmentSourceDate": "2026-10-12T17:12:03.968Z", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 85, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. 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Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 6, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476434", "goalieName": "John Gibson", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8483609", "goals": 1, "sog": 7, "shootingPct": 0.14285714285714285, "gamesWithAttempts": 3, "recordedAttempts": 11, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020477", "date": "20251210", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2 }, { "gameId": "2024021203", "date": "20250403", "season": 2024, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2 }, { "gameId": "2024020818", "date": "20250130", "season": 2024, "goals": 1, "sog": 4, "attempts": 7 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476434", "goalieName": "John Gibson", "opponent": "CGY", "games": 5, "availableGames": 25, "shotsAgainst": 152.0, "goalsAgainst": 14.0, "savePct": 0.9078947368421053, "gaa": 2.9964328180737216, "gsax": 0.16800000000000015, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021063", "date": "20260316", "goalieTeam": "DET", "opponent": "CGY", "shotsAgainst": 27.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3589.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.703 }, { "gameId": "2025020477", "date": "20251210", "goalieTeam": "DET", "opponent": "CGY", "shotsAgainst": 37.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.965 }, { "gameId": "2024021203", "date": "20250403", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "CGY", "shotsAgainst": 26.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 2381.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.555 }, { "gameId": "2024020818", "date": "20250130", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "CGY", "shotsAgainst": 29.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3525.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.091 }, { "gameId": "2024020648", "date": "20250107", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "CGY", "shotsAgainst": 33.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3725.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.854 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.2480586712683348, "adjustedSOG": 1.2480586712683348, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.2480586712683348, "adjustedSOG": 1.2480586712683348, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.11426684811441834, "goalHistoryGoals": 14.0, "goalHistoryShots": 135.0, "goalExpected": 0.14261173062770158, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.14261173062770158, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.1329093317048537, "goalProbability": 0.1329093317048537, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1285270930688831, "modelSOG": 1.2480586712683348, "historyGames": 118, "seasonGames": { "2024": 31, "2025": 79, "2026": 8 }, "historyGoals": 14.0, "historyShots": 135.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.1037037037037037, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.11426684811441834, "goalieFactor": 1.0182492009293351, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 44.7801752447517, "btb": { "id": "8483609", "name": "Adam Klapka", "score": 44.7801752447517, "components": { "Goal model": 49.76744186046512, "SOG model": 44.651162790697676, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 49.76744186046512, "Goalie": 2.5, "Team H2H": 47.1496953872933, "Goalie H2H": 52.94930238983285 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 2, "goalieH2HShots": 7, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 277 } }, { "id": "8476905", "name": "Chandler Stephenson", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "position": "C", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 0.7, "priorSOG": 1.1625, "currentTOI": 17.493333333333332, "currentFiveTOI": 13.444999999999999, "ppShare": 0.45996275605214154, "rate": 1.0800020857934365, "fifty": 0.9685376192899318, "inputs": { "Player": "Chandler Stephenson", "Player_ID": "8476905", "Team": "SEA", "Opponent": "MIN", "Position": "C", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.272553013623538, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.1742854071668745, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 10, "Prior_GP": 80, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 1.7850502045370027, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 2.8834601521826193, "Current_PP_SOG60": 5.82995951417004, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 6.256724323429612, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 13.6251875, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 13.444999999999999, "Current_PP_Share": 0.45996275605214154, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.6046986534123642, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1235.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2685.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 6, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.085, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 2.559705225948159, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 2.33891061452514, "Other_State_SOG": 0.21250000000000002, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9620662188708584, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.1625, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/seattle-kraken/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:41.652828+00:00", "priorGP": 80, "currentTotalSOG": 7.0, "currentPPTOI": 2.058333333333333, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.70 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.121, "currentIXG": 0.1121, "priorTOI": 19.381666666666668, "priorPPTOI": 2.5172916666666665, "deploymentChange": -1.8883333333333354, "ppTOIChange": -0.45895833333333336, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021240", "date": "20260407", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 16.033333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2025020693", "date": "20260108", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 20.5 }, { "gameId": "2025020465", "date": "20251208", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 17.4 }, { "gameId": "2024021088", "date": "20250319", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 11.55 }, { "gameId": "2024020982", "date": "20250304", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 17.6 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 6, "h2hSOG": 1.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "MIN", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 261.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 26.1, "mostAllowedRank": 21, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.40367597004765, "pkSogAllowed60": 45.30289727831431, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 40.4, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 77.0, "C": 114.0, "R": 29.0, "L": 41.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 11.4, "L": 4.1, "R": 2.9, "D": 7.7 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 24.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 28.333333333333332, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 26.1, "oppPosSogAllowed": 11.4, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8482661", "team": "MIN", "name": "Jesper Wallstedt", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 9, "savePct": 0.9152542372881356, "gaa": 2.1979363819525, "gsax": 6.934999999999999, "goalsAllowed": 20.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 26.935, "shotsAgainst": 236.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9495343259526882, "factor": 0.9495343259526882, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T18:37:27.914Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.1569333064328336, "goalHistoryGoals": 30.0, "goalHistoryShots": 173.0, "goalExpected": 0.11976094180810275, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.11371712515521595, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.11286751234163674, "goalProbability": 0.10748961108501992, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.5377901256616815, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 0.7631327251704827, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 1.7850502045370027, "Current_PP_SOG60": 5.82995951417004, "Current_5v5_Min": 13.444999999999999, "Current_PP_Share": 0.45996275605214154, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.085, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 2.33891061452514, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.1, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.957587153238364, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9748801923935355, "Position_Factor": 1.03255444646098, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1235.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2685.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 2.8834601521826193, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 6.256724323429612, "Prior_5v5_Min": 14.045625000000001, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.6046986534123642, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.1039473684210526, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.437908496732026, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.1039473684210526, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9748801923935355, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 1.7850502045370027, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 5.82995951417004, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 0.3333333333333333 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 1.3333333333333333 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021240", "date": "20260407", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 16.033333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2025020693", "date": "20260108", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 20.5 }, { "gameId": "2025020465", "date": "20251208", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 17.4 }, { "gameId": "2024021088", "date": "20250319", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 11.55 }, { "gameId": "2024020982", "date": "20250304", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 17.6 }, { "gameId": "2024020033", "date": "20241012", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 20.466666666666665 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. 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Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482661", "goalieName": "Jesper Wallstedt", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8476905", "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 2, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021240", "date": "20260407", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 2 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482661", "goalieName": "Jesper Wallstedt", "opponent": "SEA", "games": 2, "availableGames": 2, "shotsAgainst": 55.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "savePct": 0.9272727272727272, "gaa": 1.9647973802701597, "gsax": 2.874, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021240", "date": "20260407", "goalieTeam": "MIN", "opponent": "SEA", "shotsAgainst": 27.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.053 }, { "gameId": "2025020693", "date": "20260108", "goalieTeam": "MIN", "opponent": "SEA", "shotsAgainst": 28.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3729.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.821 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.7631327251704827, "adjustedSOG": 0.7631327251704827, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.7631327251704827, "adjustedSOG": 0.7631327251704827, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.1569333064328336, "goalHistoryGoals": 30.0, "goalHistoryShots": 173.0, "goalExpected": 0.11976094180810275, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.11976094180810275, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.11286751234163674, "goalProbability": 0.11286751234163674, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12842792656163576, "modelSOG": 0.7631327251704827, "historyGames": 168, "seasonGames": { "2024": 78, "2025": 80, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 30.0, "historyShots": 173.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.17341040462427745, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.1569333064328336, "goalieFactor": 0.9495343259526882, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 40.7062187693099, "btb": { "id": "8476905", "name": "Chandler Stephenson", "score": 40.7062187693099, "components": { "Goal model": 43.02325581395349, "SOG model": 16.27906976744186, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 31.162790697674417, "Goalie": 23.676470588235293, "Team H2H": 38.69125326370757, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 6, "goalieH2HShots": 0, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 340 } }, { "id": "8476441", "name": "Joel Edmundson", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "NJD", "position": "D", "currentGP": 7, "currentSOG": 1.7142857142857142, "priorSOG": 1.2682926829268293, "currentTOI": 15.91904761904762, "currentFiveTOI": 13.37857142857143, "ppShare": 0.0, "rate": 1.161751983054248, "fifty": 1.3332021419726503, "inputs": { "Player": "Joel Edmundson", "Player_ID": "8476441", "Team": "LAK", "Opponent": "NJD", "Position": "D", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 0.9896677693325449, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 0.9469230921784462, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 7, "Prior_GP": 82, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 7.688200747463962, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.708182514729583, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 13.980731707317073, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 13.37857142857143, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.01287602769776625, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1924.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 4, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.575661375661376, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.017674902782584528, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.0, "Other_State_SOG": 0.054878048780487805, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9357862710703578, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.2682926829268293, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/los-angeles-kings/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:41.671702+00:00", "priorGP": 82, "currentTotalSOG": 12.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.0, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.71 SOG/game in 7 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 7 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.469, "currentIXG": 0.06699999999999999, "priorTOI": 18.478455284552847, "priorPPTOI": 0.054878048780487805, "deploymentChange": -2.559407665505228, "ppTOIChange": -0.054878048780487805, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021050", "date": "20260314", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 19.45 }, { "gameId": "2025020191", "date": "20251101", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 9.0, "toi": 15.7 }, { "gameId": "2024020602", "date": "20250101", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 24.733333333333334 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 1.3333333333333333, "opponentDefense": { "team": "NJD", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 234.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 26.0, "mostAllowedRank": 22, "fiveSogAllowed60": 24.374647357532442, "pkSogAllowed60": 52.512155591572125, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 37.111111111111114, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "L": 41.0, "D": 63.0, "C": 78.0, "R": 52.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 8.666666666666666, "L": 4.555555555555555, "R": 5.777777777777778, "D": 7.0 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 25.0, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 25.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 26.0, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.0, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8474596", "team": "NJD", "name": "Jake Allen", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 6, "savePct": 0.8834355828220859, "gaa": 3.1496062992125986, "gsax": -3.708, "goalsAllowed": 19.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 15.292, "shotsAgainst": 163.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0365218981504722, "factor": 1.0365218981504722, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T17:31:56.013Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.04487432004797585, "goalHistoryGoals": 8.0, "goalHistoryShots": 207.0, "goalExpected": 0.07370499904070217, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.07639684550884734, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.07105430670509313, "goalProbability": 0.07355152331891641, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.24972166138232804, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 7, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.6424761191234316, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 7.688200747463962, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 13.37857142857143, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.575661375661376, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.0, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9778442581785296, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0469775686735434, "Position_Factor": 0.9997771298284035, "Input_GP": 7, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1924.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.708182514729583, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 15.385772357723578, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.01287602769776625, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9776643566210901, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.34640522875817, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9776643566210901, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0469775686735434, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 7.688200747463962, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021050", "date": "20260314", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 19.45 }, { "gameId": "2025020191", "date": "20251101", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 9.0, "toi": 15.7 }, { "gameId": "2024020602", "date": "20250101", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 24.733333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020461", "date": "20241212", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 21.483333333333334 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 158, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8474596", "goalieName": "Jake Allen", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8476441", "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 4, "recordedAttempts": 8, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021050", "date": "20260314", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 3 }, { "gameId": "2024020602", "date": "20250101", "season": 2024, "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2023021260", "date": "20240411", "season": 2023, "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2023020857", "date": "20240217", "season": 2023, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 3 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8474596", "goalieName": "Jake Allen", "opponent": "LAK", "games": 5, "availableGames": 17, "shotsAgainst": 151.0, "goalsAgainst": 16.0, "savePct": 0.8940397350993378, "gaa": 3.2597623089983023, "gsax": 1.5839999999999996, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021050", "date": "20260314", "goalieTeam": "NJD", "opponent": "LAK", "shotsAgainst": 31.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.558 }, { "gameId": "2024020602", "date": "20250101", "goalieTeam": "NJD", "opponent": "LAK", "shotsAgainst": 23.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3431.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.828 }, { "gameId": "2023020309", "date": "20231125", "goalieTeam": "MTL", "opponent": "LAK", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.339 }, { "gameId": "2022020982", "date": "20230302", "goalieTeam": "MTL", "opponent": "LAK", "shotsAgainst": 33.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3509.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.849 }, { "gameId": "2022020439", "date": "20221210", "goalieTeam": "MTL", "opponent": "LAK", "shotsAgainst": 34.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3530.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.01 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.6424761191234316, "adjustedSOG": 1.6424761191234316, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.675996039921869, "adjustedSOG": 1.6424761191234316, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.04487432004797585, "goalHistoryGoals": 8.0, "goalHistoryShots": 207.0, "goalExpected": 0.07520918269459405, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.07520918269459405, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.07245056125740335, "goalProbability": 0.07245056125740335, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05776416254728585, "modelSOG": 1.6424761191234316, "historyGames": 162, "seasonGames": { "2024": 73, "2025": 82, "2026": 7 }, "historyGoals": 8.0, "historyShots": 207.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.03864734299516908, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.04487432004797585, "goalieFactor": 1.0365218981504722, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 41.413720442836436, "btb": { "id": "8476441", "name": "Joel Edmundson", "score": 41.413720442836436, "components": { "Goal model": 24.651162790697676, "SOG model": 62.7906976744186, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 21.27906976744186, "Goalie": 55.44117647058823, "Team H2H": 38.36255128683327, "Goalie H2H": 49.17545684147972 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": 3, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 328 } }, { "id": "8483447", "name": "Conor Geekie", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "UTA", "position": "R", "currentGP": 9, "currentSOG": 1.1111111111111112, "priorSOG": 0.7142857142857143, "currentTOI": 11.987037037037037, "currentFiveTOI": 10.777777777777779, "ppShare": 0.2183242506811989, "rate": 0.6874079620444177, "fifty": 0.7888597880411714, "inputs": { "Player": "Conor Geekie", "Player_ID": "8483447", "Team": "TBL", "Opponent": "UTA", "Position": "C", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 0.7106191300547565, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 0.9660166565114177, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 9, "Prior_GP": 14, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.948453608247423, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.504504504504505, "Current_PP_SOG60": 11.232449297971918, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 10.398730158730158, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 10.777777777777779, "Current_PP_Share": 0.2183242506811989, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.05851502854391637, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 641.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2936.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 5, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.626018518518518, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.7881879003817727, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 1.0099720266929053, "Other_State_SOG": 0.0, "Environment_Proxy": 0.85, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 0.7142857142857143, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:41.690386+00:00", "priorGP": 14.0, "currentTotalSOG": 10.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.1870370370370371, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.11 SOG/game in 9 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 9 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.092, "currentIXG": 0.12133333333333335, "priorTOI": 9.892857142857142, "priorPPTOI": 0.29642857142857143, "deploymentChange": 2.094179894179895, "ppTOIChange": 0.8906084656084656, "h2hLog": [], "h2hGames": 0, "h2hAvailableGames": 0, "h2hSOG": null, "opponentDefense": { "team": "UTA", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 225.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 22.5, "mostAllowedRank": 30, "fiveSogAllowed60": 21.06050814598143, "pkSogAllowed60": 53.47313237221494, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 35.6, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 58.0, "C": 87.0, "R": 52.0, "L": 28.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 8.7, "L": 2.8, "R": 5.2, "D": 5.8 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 22.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 20.25, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 22.5, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.2, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8478872", "team": "UTA", "name": "Karel Vejmelka", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 8, "savePct": 0.8793103448275862, "gaa": 2.8927833473635878, "gsax": -2.0919999999999987, "goalsAllowed": 21.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 18.908, "shotsAgainst": 174.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0222659253207917, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Likely starter per Daily Faceoff; no Model Goal adjustment until confirmed.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T17:11:59.953Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.12694429835898988, "goalHistoryGoals": 10.0, "goalHistoryShots": 80.0, "goalExpected": 0.11398878958685754, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.11398878958685754, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.10773204148120985, "goalProbability": 0.10773204148120985, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 9, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 0.8979433583106267, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.948453608247423, "Current_PP_SOG60": 11.232449297971918, "Current_5v5_Min": 10.777777777777779, "Current_PP_Share": 0.2183242506811989, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.626018518518518, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.0099720266929053, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9114659361351877, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.05376529706562, "Position_Factor": 1.021180935033394, "Input_GP": 9, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 641.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2936.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.504504504504505, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 9.514285714285714, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.05851502854391637, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9830601092896174, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.382352941176471, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.8310057408455549, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.75, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.85, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.044035228182546, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 12.020033388981636, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "NHL.com projected lineup", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 10, "priorAttempts": 14, "fitPct": -5.633141971814837, "index": 94.36685802818516, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 8.857142857142858, "opponentDeltaPct": -5.689070301576365, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 23.42857142857143, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.7770704564453013, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 29.714285714285715, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.327351233427365, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 23.142857142857146, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.9245535697431251, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 14.857142857142858, "opponentDeltaPct": -16.04971857561877, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -20.1847447341527, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 1, "fitPct": -9.833580973329816, "index": 90.16641902667018, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 30.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 17.305597288121845, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 70.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -21.464657371094802, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.5905016923962023, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 9.618907395292567, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 13.720872325288695, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 37.671799141718395, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -5.633141971814837, "zonePPFit": -9.833580973329816, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478872", "goalieName": "Karel Vejmelka", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8483447", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478872", "goalieName": "Karel Vejmelka", "opponent": "TBL", "games": 5, "availableGames": 6, "shotsAgainst": 128.0, "goalsAgainst": 18.0, "savePct": 0.859375, "gaa": 4.0538004379105415, "gsax": -5.162, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020825", "date": "20260126", "goalieTeam": "UTA", "opponent": "TBL", "shotsAgainst": 29.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.389 }, { "gameId": "2025020194", "date": "20251102", "goalieTeam": "UTA", "opponent": "TBL", "shotsAgainst": 25.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3527.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.366 }, { "gameId": "2024021145", "date": "20250327", "goalieTeam": "UTA", "opponent": "TBL", "shotsAgainst": 12.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 1754.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.834 }, { "gameId": "2024021111", "date": "20250322", "goalieTeam": "UTA", "opponent": "TBL", "shotsAgainst": 27.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.77 }, { "gameId": "2022020582", "date": "20221231", "goalieTeam": "ARI", "opponent": "TBL", "shotsAgainst": 35.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3504.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.479 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.8979433583106267, "adjustedSOG": 0.8979433583106267, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.9162687329700272, "adjustedSOG": 0.8979433583106267, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.12694429835898988, "goalHistoryGoals": 10.0, "goalHistoryShots": 80.0, "goalExpected": 0.11631509141516076, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.11631509141516076, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.10980531360109658, "goalProbability": 0.10980531360109658, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1284997370461818, "modelSOG": 0.8979433583106267, "historyGames": 75, "seasonGames": { "2024": 52, "2025": 14, "2026": 9 }, "historyGoals": 10.0, "historyShots": 80.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.125, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.12694429835898988, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 45.47674418604651, "btb": { "id": "8483447", "name": "Conor Geekie", "score": 45.47674418604651, "components": { "Goal model": 40.93023255813954, "SOG model": 21.86046511627907, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 36.97674418604651, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 50.0, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral", "Team H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Likely", "h2hGames": 0, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 269 } }, { "id": "8479325", "name": "Charlie McAvoy", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "position": "D", "currentGP": 4, "currentSOG": 1.75, "priorSOG": 1.608695652173913, "currentTOI": 26.141666666666666, "currentFiveTOI": 18.808333333333334, "ppShare": 0.6402767102229054, "rate": 1.789272988763605, "fifty": 1.8435378313239685, "inputs": { "Player": "Charlie McAvoy", "Player_ID": "8479325", "Team": "BOS", "Opponent": "SJS", "Position": "D", "Current_GP": 4, "Prior_GP": 69, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.1900753212228623, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.12992398064962, "Current_PP_SOG60": 12.965186074429772, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 5.744520030234316, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 18.408586956521738, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 18.808333333333334, "Current_PP_Share": 0.6402767102229054, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.6559225254522721, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 833.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1301.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 3, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Measured game-matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Historical skater-team PP minute approximation, existing hybrid method", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.950833333333334, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 3.1931412265979846, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 3.169903279528568, "Other_State_SOG": 0.10434782608695653, "Environment_Proxy": 1.0796680236682055, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.608695652173913, "Status": "Historical input object restored from saved prior summaries", "Availability_Note": "Conditional on dressing", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.5128392601581189, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.7693257142608183 }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/boston-bruins/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:41.709617+00:00", "priorGP": 69, "currentTotalSOG": 7.0, "currentPPTOI": 3.470833333333333, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.75 SOG/game in 4 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 4 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.5459999999999999, "currentIXG": 0.13649999999999998, "priorTOI": 24.38961352657005, "priorPPTOI": 2.876086956521739, "deploymentChange": 1.752053140096617, "ppTOIChange": 0.5947463768115941, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2026020105", "date": "20261013", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 24.683333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025021027", "date": "20260312", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 24.433333333333334 } ], "h2hGames": 2, "h2hAvailableGames": 2, "h2hSOG": 2.5, "opponentDefense": { "team": "SJS", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 286.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 28.6, "mostAllowedRank": 10, "fiveSogAllowed60": 25.210423540502322, "pkSogAllowed60": 49.90958408679928, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 47.8, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 86.0, "C": 94.0, "R": 53.0, "L": 53.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.4, "L": 5.3, "R": 5.3, "D": 8.6 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 30.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 29.833333333333332, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 28.6, "oppPosSogAllowed": 8.6, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8477968", "team": "SJS", "name": "Alex Nedeljkovic", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 4, "savePct": 0.9173553719008265, "gaa": 2.372479240806643, "gsax": 4.638, "goalsAllowed": 10.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 14.638, "shotsAgainst": 121.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9618500831522029, "factor": 0.9618500831522029, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T16:06:01.887Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.07832939600155144, "goalHistoryGoals": 19.0, "goalHistoryShots": 216.0, "goalExpected": 0.14006078162456487, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.13471747445195026, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.13069460400122201, "goalProbability": 0.12603720637159055, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.46573976296314656, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": null, "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 4, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.7880998548972693, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.1900753212228623, "Current_PP_SOG60": 12.965186074429772, "Current_5v5_Min": 18.808333333333334, "Current_PP_Share": 0.6402767102229054, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.950833333333334, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 3.169903279528568, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9930883597207428, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0259958714356598, "Position_Factor": 1.0143476407933703, "Input_GP": 4, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 833.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1301.0, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.085320284697509, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.34640522875817, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.085320284697509, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0259958714356598, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 3.1900753212228623, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 12.965186074429772, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 2.0 }, { "season": "2026", "label": "2026–27", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 3.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2026020105", "date": "20261013", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 24.683333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025021027", "date": "20260312", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 24.433333333333334 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "ppAssignmentSourceDate": "2026-10-12T22:24:39.463Z", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 132, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 37, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477968", "goalieName": "Alex Nedeljkovic", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8479325", "goals": 1, "sog": 8, "shootingPct": 0.125, "gamesWithAttempts": 6, "recordedAttempts": 12, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021027", "date": "20260312", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 3 }, { "gameId": "2023021279", "date": "20240413", "season": 2023, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2023021012", "date": "20240309", "season": 2023, "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2023020589", "date": "20240104", "season": 2023, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2021021115", "date": "20220405", "season": 2021, "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 5 }, { "gameId": "2021020575", "date": "20220102", "season": 2021, "goals": 1, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477968", "goalieName": "Alex Nedeljkovic", "opponent": "BOS", "games": 5, "availableGames": 8, "shotsAgainst": 134.0, "goalsAgainst": 17.0, "savePct": 0.8731343283582089, "gaa": 3.7850207186591627, "gsax": -3.2609999999999997, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021027", "date": "20260312", "goalieTeam": "SJS", "opponent": "BOS", "shotsAgainst": 41.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.661 }, { "gameId": "2024020952", "date": "20250301", "goalieTeam": "PIT", "opponent": "BOS", "shotsAgainst": 25.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3474.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.566 }, { "gameId": "2023021279", "date": "20240413", "goalieTeam": "PIT", "opponent": "BOS", "shotsAgainst": 16.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 1895.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.22 }, { "gameId": "2023021012", "date": "20240309", "goalieTeam": "PIT", "opponent": "BOS", "shotsAgainst": 23.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.955 }, { "gameId": "2023020589", "date": "20240104", "goalieTeam": "PIT", "opponent": "BOS", "shotsAgainst": 29.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.337 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.7880998548972693, "adjustedSOG": 1.7880998548972693, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.7880998548972693, "adjustedSOG": 1.7880998548972693, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.07832939600155144, "goalHistoryGoals": 19.0, "goalHistoryShots": 216.0, "goalExpected": 0.14006078162456487, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.14006078162456487, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.13069460400122201, "goalProbability": 0.13069460400122201, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05752089136490251, "modelSOG": 1.7880998548972693, "historyGames": 123, "seasonGames": { "2024": 50, "2025": 69, "2026": 4 }, "historyGoals": 19.0, "historyShots": 216.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.08796296296296297, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.07832939600155144, "goalieFactor": 0.9618500831522029, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 57.017558424835464, "btb": { "id": "8479325", "name": "Charlie McAvoy", "score": 57.017558424835464, "components": { "Goal model": 49.06976744186046, "SOG model": 68.37209302325581, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 51.627906976744185, "Goalie": 97.5, "Team H2H": 56.28807658833769, "Goalie H2H": 54.289980993755094 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 2, "goalieH2HShots": 8, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 123 } }, { "id": "8484152", "name": "Luca Cagnoni", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "BOS", "position": "D", "currentGP": 8, "currentSOG": 1.5, "priorSOG": 1.3333333333333333, "currentTOI": 17.904166666666665, "currentFiveTOI": 14.327083333333333, "ppShare": 0.591112922951488, "rate": 1.3467124700686, "fifty": 1.2351071450615942, "inputs": { "Player": "Luca Cagnoni", "Player_ID": "8484152", "Team": "SJS", "Opponent": "BOS", "Position": "D", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.3494649865610133, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.224496064464126, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 8, "Prior_GP": 3, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.140904464155882, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.355150613611007, "Current_PP_SOG60": 4.9655172413793105, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 14.510624999999997, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 14.327083333333333, "Current_PP_Share": 0.591112922951488, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.5538702971178038, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1450.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2453.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 5, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.0425, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 2.9243481317529723, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 2.980686913982878, "Other_State_SOG": 0.05, "Environment_Proxy": 1.0253180054689388, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.3333333333333333, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:41.728230+00:00", "priorGP": 3, "currentTotalSOG": 12.0, "currentPPTOI": 3.0208333333333335, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.50 SOG/game in 8 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 8 games. 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MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2026020105", "date": "20261013", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 15.683333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024021117", "date": "20250322", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 15.266666666666667 } ], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Reviewed October22 projected lineup and coach reports", "ppAssignmentSourceDate": "2026-10-13T18:05:17.352Z", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480280", "goalieName": "Jeremy Swayman", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8484152", "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 2, "log": [ { "gameId": "2026020105", "date": "20261013", "season": 2026, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480280", "goalieName": "Jeremy Swayman", "opponent": "SJS", "games": 5, "availableGames": 6, "shotsAgainst": 123.0, "goalsAgainst": 9.0, "savePct": 0.926829268292683, "gaa": 2.2632020117351215, "gsax": 2.58, "log": [ { "gameId": "2026020105", "date": "20261013", "goalieTeam": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "shotsAgainst": 38.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.146 }, { "gameId": "2025021027", "date": "20260312", "goalieTeam": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "shotsAgainst": 28.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3406.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.91 }, { "gameId": "2025020351", "date": "20251123", "goalieTeam": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3588.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.577 }, { "gameId": "2023020340", "date": "20231130", "goalieTeam": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "shotsAgainst": 26.0, "goalsAgainst": 0.0, "seconds": 3574.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.886 }, { "gameId": "2022020748", "date": "20230122", "goalieTeam": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "shotsAgainst": 1.0, "goalsAgainst": 0.0, "seconds": 148.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 0.061 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.442693420967534, "adjustedSOG": 1.442693420967534, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.4721361438444225, "adjustedSOG": 1.442693420967534, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.055024641250040626, "goalHistoryGoals": 1.0, "goalHistoryShots": 23.0, "goalExpected": 0.08100376318625754, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.07624177511529244, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.07780977893548852, "goalProbability": 0.07340784744938023, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.44019314861082903 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05768030873754997, "modelSOG": 1.442693420967534, "historyGames": 17, "seasonGames": { "2024": 6, "2025": 3, "2026": 8 }, "historyGoals": 1.0, "historyShots": 23.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.043478260869565216, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.055024641250040626, "goalieFactor": 0.9412127550171275, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8483573", "name": "Ethen Frank", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "position": "L", "currentGP": 2, "currentSOG": 1.0, "priorSOG": 1.467741935483871, "currentTOI": 9.716666666666667, "currentFiveTOI": 8.725, "ppShare": 0.25252525252525254, "rate": 1.2464460235566839, "fifty": 1.1464818191918065, "inputs": { "Player": "Ethen Frank", "Player_ID": "8483573", "Team": "WSH", "Opponent": "BUF", "Position": "R", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.1451443831031143, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.0487722918889244, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 2, "Prior_GP": 62, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 6.876790830945558, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.730161938205796, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 7.514231499051234, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 9.299677419354838, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 8.725, "Current_PP_Share": 0.25252525252525254, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.3237433463078394, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 100.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 396.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 1, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.500555555555556, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 1.2326602244593843, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 1.1365039281705949, "Other_State_SOG": 0.08709677419354839, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9496227273390297, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.467741935483871, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:41.746539+00:00", "priorGP": 62, "currentTotalSOG": 2.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.8333333333333334, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.00 SOG/game in 2 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 2 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.303, "currentIXG": 0.1515, "priorTOI": 12.236827956989247, "priorPPTOI": 1.4166666666666665, "deploymentChange": -2.52016129032258, "ppTOIChange": -0.5833333333333331, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021213", "date": "20260404", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 9.566666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025021028", "date": "20260312", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 10.5 } ], "h2hGames": 2, "h2hAvailableGames": 2, "h2hSOG": 0.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "BUF", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 257.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 25.7, "mostAllowedRank": 24, "fiveSogAllowed60": 21.645723550871505, "pkSogAllowed60": 62.21198156682028, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 40.1, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 61.0, "L": 55.0, "D": 65.0, "C": 76.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.6, "L": 5.5, "R": 6.1, "D": 6.5 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 30.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.25, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 25.7, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.5, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8480045", "team": "BUF", "name": "Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 8, "savePct": 0.8629441624365483, "gaa": 3.5349310833909153, "gsax": -3.6580000000000013, "goalsAllowed": 27.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 23.342, "shotsAgainst": 197.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.035448902624297, "factor": 1.035448902624297, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T15:43:35.500Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.1335590211213255, "goalHistoryGoals": 16.0, "goalHistoryShots": 116.0, "goalExpected": 0.13933594456556614, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.14427525089653534, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.1300642708177866, "goalProbability": 0.13435055552160557, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.42862847038189766, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 2, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.0432537120723044, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 6.876790830945558, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 8.725, "Current_PP_Share": 0.25252525252525254, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.500555555555556, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.1365039281705949, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.922717716387106, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.1429256259066152, "Position_Factor": 1.0189267959999297, "Input_GP": 2, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 100.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 396.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.730161938205796, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 7.514231499051234, "Prior_5v5_Min": 10.640591397849462, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.3237433463078394, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0432537120723047, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.062091503267974, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0432537120723047, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.1429256259066152, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 6.876790830945558, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021213", "date": "20260404", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 9.566666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025021028", "date": "20260312", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 10.5 } ], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "NHL.com October 20 game-specific projected lineup", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 106, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 14, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480045", "goalieName": "Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8483573", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480045", "goalieName": "Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen", "opponent": "WSH", "games": 5, "availableGames": 10, "shotsAgainst": 138.0, "goalsAgainst": 13.0, "savePct": 0.9057971014492754, "gaa": 2.5547246028713357, "gsax": 1.2270000000000003, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021028", "date": "20260312", "goalieTeam": "BUF", "opponent": "WSH", "shotsAgainst": 22.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3513.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.736 }, { "gameId": "2025020186", "date": "20251101", "goalieTeam": "BUF", "opponent": "WSH", "shotsAgainst": 34.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3868.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.692 }, { "gameId": "2024020637", "date": "20250106", "goalieTeam": "BUF", "opponent": "WSH", "shotsAgainst": 28.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3900.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.29 }, { "gameId": "2024020480", "date": "20241214", "goalieTeam": "BUF", "opponent": "WSH", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3438.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.234 }, { "gameId": "2023021255", "date": "20240411", "goalieTeam": "BUF", "opponent": "WSH", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.275 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.0432537120723044, "adjustedSOG": 1.0432537120723044, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.0432537120723044, "adjustedSOG": 1.0432537120723044, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.1335590211213255, "goalHistoryGoals": 16.0, "goalHistoryShots": 116.0, "goalExpected": 0.13933594456556614, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.14427525089653534, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.1300642708177866, "goalProbability": 0.13435055552160557, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.42862847038189766 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1284874856220631, "modelSOG": 1.0432537120723044, "historyGames": 88, "seasonGames": { "2024": 24, "2025": 62, "2026": 2 }, "historyGoals": 16.0, "historyShots": 116.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.13793103448275862, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.1335590211213255, "goalieFactor": 1.035448902624297, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8475810", "name": "Bryan Rust", "team": "PIT", "opponent": "NSH", "position": "R", "currentGP": 7, "currentSOG": 1.2857142857142858, "priorSOG": 2.5416666666666665, "currentTOI": 17.369047619047617, "currentFiveTOI": 13.00952380952381, "ppShare": 0.3106404437720625, "rate": 2.3334603090541766, "fifty": 1.8711281565561202, "inputs": { "Player": "Bryan Rust", "Player_ID": "8475810", "Team": "PIT", "Opponent": "NSH", "Position": "R", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 2.485333823770959, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 2.056733986053757, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 7, "Prior_GP": 72, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.953147877013177, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.621277144977574, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 11.705586757315992, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 13.41097222222222, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 13.00952380952381, "Current_PP_Share": 0.3106404437720625, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.7110830170184582, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 616.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1983.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 3, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.130208333333334, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 2.209956341196831, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 1.5936501933098, "Other_State_SOG": 0.33035714285714285, "Environment_Proxy": 1.0738773444064478, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 2.5416666666666665, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/pittsburgh-penguins/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:41.765397+00:00", "priorGP": 72, "currentTotalSOG": 9.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.4666666666666668, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.29 SOG/game in 7 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 7 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.557, "currentIXG": 0.22242857142857142, "priorTOI": 19.944444444444443, "priorPPTOI": 3.1324074074074075, "deploymentChange": -2.575396825396826, "ppTOIChange": -1.6657407407407407, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020296", "date": "20251116", "team": "PIT", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 18.25 }, { "gameId": "2025020281", "date": "20251114", "team": "PIT", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 20.05 }, { "gameId": "2024020830", "date": "20250201", "team": "PIT", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 19.433333333333334 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 2.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "NSH", "games": 8, "sogAllowedTotal": 233.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 29.125, "mostAllowedRank": 8, "fiveSogAllowed60": 26.902173913043477, "pkSogAllowed60": 37.776914108045084, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 45.125, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 82.0, "L": 44.0, "D": 67.0, "R": 40.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.25, "L": 5.5, "R": 5.0, "D": 8.375 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 27.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 3, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 30.0, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 29.125, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.0, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8477424", "team": "NSH", "name": "Juuse Saros", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.9061032863849765, "gaa": 2.8192176670973805, "gsax": 1.6679999999999993, "goalsAllowed": 20.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 21.668, "shotsAgainst": 213.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9906396066739361, "factor": 0.9906396066739361, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T15:56:16.281Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.1570132567796297, "goalHistoryGoals": 63.0, "goalHistoryShots": 383.0, "goalExpected": 0.1976250645441241, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.19577521620890234, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.17932250344768794, "goalProbability": 0.1778029695266022, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.1519533921085725, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 7, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.2586520947176685, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.953147877013177, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 13.00952380952381, "Current_PP_Share": 0.3106404437720625, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.130208333333334, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.5936501933098, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.42857142857142855, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0235094259979116, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9053307495740243, "Position_Factor": 0.9854098100070098, "Input_GP": 7, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 616.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1983.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.621277144977574, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 11.705586757315992, "Prior_5v5_Min": 14.347685185185185, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.7110830170184582, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9684274438372799, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.382352941176471, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9684274438372799, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9053307495740243, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 3.953147877013177, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 3.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020296", "date": "20251116", "team": "PIT", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 18.25 }, { "gameId": "2025020281", "date": "20251114", "team": "PIT", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 20.05 }, { "gameId": "2024020830", "date": "20250201", "team": "PIT", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 19.433333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020515", "date": "20241219", "team": "PIT", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 2.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 20.95 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-19T20:27:28.451Z", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 186, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 72, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477424", "goalieName": "Juuse Saros", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8475810", "goals": 3, "sog": 22, "shootingPct": 0.13636363636363635, "gamesWithAttempts": 9, "recordedAttempts": 35, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020296", "date": "20251116", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2025020281", "date": "20251114", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 4, "attempts": 6 }, { "gameId": "2024020830", "date": "20250201", "season": 2024, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2 }, { "gameId": "2024020515", "date": "20241219", "season": 2024, "goals": 2, "sog": 5, "attempts": 6 }, { "gameId": "2023021289", "date": "20240415", "season": 2023, "goals": 0, "sog": 5, "attempts": 10 }, { "gameId": "2023020331", "date": "20231128", "season": 2023, "goals": 1, "sog": 3, "attempts": 3 }, { "gameId": "2022021192", "date": "20230330", "season": 2022, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 3 }, { "gameId": "2022020963", "date": "20230228", "season": 2022, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2 }, { "gameId": "2021020958", "date": "20220315", "season": 2021, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477424", "goalieName": "Juuse Saros", "opponent": "PIT", "games": 5, "availableGames": 13, "shotsAgainst": 131.0, "goalsAgainst": 15.0, "savePct": 0.8854961832061069, "gaa": 3.034219250435467, "gsax": -2.5649999999999995, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020296", "date": "20251116", "goalieTeam": "NSH", "opponent": "PIT", "shotsAgainst": 21.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3562.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.064 }, { "gameId": "2025020281", "date": "20251114", "goalieTeam": "NSH", "opponent": "PIT", "shotsAgainst": 17.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3637.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.622 }, { "gameId": "2024020830", "date": "20250201", "goalieTeam": "NSH", "opponent": "PIT", "shotsAgainst": 35.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3527.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.258 }, { "gameId": "2024020515", "date": "20241219", "goalieTeam": "NSH", "opponent": "PIT", "shotsAgainst": 20.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3657.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.863 }, { "gameId": "2023021289", "date": "20240415", "goalieTeam": "NSH", "opponent": "PIT", "shotsAgainst": 38.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3414.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.628 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.2586520947176685, "adjustedSOG": 1.2586520947176685, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.2586520947176685, "adjustedSOG": 1.2586520947176685, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.1570132567796297, "goalHistoryGoals": 63.0, "goalHistoryShots": 383.0, "goalExpected": 0.1976250645441241, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.19577521620890234, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.17932250344768794, "goalProbability": 0.1778029695266022, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.1519533921085725 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12837403024561153, "modelSOG": 1.2586520947176685, "historyGames": 150, "seasonGames": { "2024": 71, "2025": 72, "2026": 7 }, "historyGoals": 63.0, "historyShots": 383.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.16449086161879894, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.1570132567796297, "goalieFactor": 0.9906396066739361, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 59.85171833360404, "btb": { "id": "8475810", "name": "Bryan Rust", "score": 59.85171833360404, "components": { "Goal model": 66.51162790697674, "SOG model": 45.116279069767444, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 68.37209302325581, "Goalie": 81.91176470588235, "Team H2H": 62.56993659082432, "Goalie H2H": 48.797025371828525 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": 22, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 91 } }, { "id": "8474564", "name": "Steven Stamkos", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "PIT", "position": "L", "currentGP": 8, "currentSOG": 1.75, "priorSOG": 2.5121951219512195, "currentTOI": 19.422916666666666, "currentFiveTOI": 14.333333333333334, "ppShare": 0.738356683074593, "rate": 2.642038518580379, "fifty": 2.2793981033084907, "inputs": { "Player": "Steven Stamkos", "Player_ID": "8474564", "Team": "NSH", "Opponent": "PIT", "Position": "C", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 2.286682678922453, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 2.0859215567305793, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 8, "Prior_GP": 82, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.6627906976744184, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.280099598920515, "Current_PP_SOG60": 7.384615384615385, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 15.077006214536611, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 14.122906504065039, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 14.333333333333334, "Current_PP_Share": 0.738356683074593, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.7451627841423885, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1950.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2641.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 5, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.906041666666667, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 3.6324259566535924, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 3.622408652025748, "Other_State_SOG": 0.3228658536585366, "Environment_Proxy": 1.0227478110844896, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 2.5121951219512195, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/nashville-predators/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:41.782706+00:00", "priorGP": 82, "currentTotalSOG": 14.0, "currentPPTOI": 4.0625, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.75 SOG/game in 8 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 8 games. 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Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481668", "goalieName": "Arturs Silovs", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8474564", "goals": 1, "sog": 1, "shootingPct": 1.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 3, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020281", "date": "20251114", "season": 2025, "goals": 1, "sog": 1, "attempts": 3 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481668", "goalieName": "Arturs Silovs", "opponent": "NSH", "games": 2, "availableGames": 2, "shotsAgainst": 62.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "savePct": 0.9193548387096774, "gaa": 2.397123451857771, "gsax": 1.6559999999999997, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020281", "date": "20251114", "goalieTeam": "PIT", "opponent": "NSH", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3644.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.231 }, { "gameId": "2022021010", "date": "20230306", "goalieTeam": "VAN", "opponent": "NSH", "shotsAgainst": 32.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3865.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.425 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.6421352165423577, "adjustedSOG": 1.6421352165423577, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.675648180145263, "adjustedSOG": 1.6421352165423577, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.1737443857589963, "goalHistoryGoals": 73.0, "goalHistoryShots": 394.0, "goalExpected": 0.29113446380751873, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.29113446380751873, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.2525848290287237, "goalProbability": 0.2525848290287237, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12829726564944177, "modelSOG": 1.6421352165423577, "historyGames": 172, "seasonGames": { "2024": 82, "2025": 82, "2026": 8 }, "historyGoals": 73.0, "historyShots": 394.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.18527918781725888, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.1737443857589963, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 62.16340657338897, "btb": { "id": "8474564", "name": "Steven Stamkos", "score": 62.16340657338897, "components": { "Goal model": 83.25581395348837, "SOG model": 62.55813953488372, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 88.6046511627907, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 56.82581126445356, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Likely", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": 1, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 63 } }, { "id": "8479661", "name": "Tanner Jeannot", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "position": "L", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 0.5, "priorSOG": 1.0129870129870129, "currentTOI": 11.346666666666668, "currentFiveTOI": 10.055, "ppShare": 0.012581014105985514, "rate": 0.984837590775043, "fifty": 0.8342393904046556, "inputs": { "Player": "Tanner Jeannot", "Player_ID": "8479661", "Team": "BOS", "Opponent": "SJS", "Position": "L", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 0.9491826312080939, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 0.7445761832208292, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 10, "Prior_GP": 77, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.9835902536051715, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.0522376422891, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 10.36992857142857, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 10.055, "Current_PP_Share": 0.012581014105985514, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.018610151460169075, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 33.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2623.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 6, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.950833333333334, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.07124128025835108, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.06228650400304995, "Other_State_SOG": 0.07012987012987013, "Environment_Proxy": 1.0796680236682055, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.0129870129870129, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/boston-bruins/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:41.801604+00:00", "priorGP": 77, "currentTotalSOG": 5.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.05500000000000001, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.50 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.777, "currentIXG": 0.0777, "priorTOI": 12.642857142857142, "priorPPTOI": 0.0816017316017316, "deploymentChange": -1.2961904761904748, "ppTOIChange": -0.0266017316017316, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2026020105", "date": "20261013", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 12.683333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025021027", "date": "20260312", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 8.9 }, { "gameId": "2025020351", "date": "20251123", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 12.866666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020344", "date": "20241125", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 12.6 }, { "gameId": "2024020154", "date": "20241029", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 10.7 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 6, "h2hSOG": 0.6, "opponentDefense": { "team": "SJS", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 286.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 28.6, "mostAllowedRank": 10, "fiveSogAllowed60": 25.210423540502322, "pkSogAllowed60": 49.90958408679928, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 47.8, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 86.0, "C": 94.0, "R": 53.0, "L": 53.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.4, "L": 5.3, "R": 5.3, "D": 8.6 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 30.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 29.833333333333332, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 28.6, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.3, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8477968", "team": "SJS", "name": "Alex Nedeljkovic", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 4, "savePct": 0.9173553719008265, "gaa": 2.372479240806643, "gsax": 4.638, "goalsAllowed": 10.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 14.638, "shotsAgainst": 121.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9618500831522029, "factor": 0.9618500831522029, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T16:06:01.887Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.11235635066200493, "goalHistoryGoals": 14.0, "goalHistoryShots": 139.0, "goalExpected": 0.05749830805020742, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.05530475237920298, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.05587651220538985, "goalProbability": 0.053803251699762925, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.20732605056269227, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 0.5117495158166558, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.9835902536051715, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 10.055, "Current_PP_Share": 0.012581014105985514, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.950833333333334, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.06228650400304995, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9930883597207428, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0259958714356598, "Position_Factor": 0.999629808538782, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 33.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2623.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.0522376422891, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 11.104761904761906, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.018610151460169075, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0234990316333117, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.062091503267974, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0234990316333117, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0259958714356598, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 2.9835902536051715, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 1.3333333333333333 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.5 }, { "season": "2026", "label": "2026–27", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 0.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2026020105", "date": "20261013", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 12.683333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025021027", "date": "20260312", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 8.9 }, { "gameId": "2025020351", "date": "20251123", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 12.866666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020344", "date": "20241125", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 12.6 }, { "gameId": "2024020154", "date": "20241029", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 10.7 }, { "gameId": "2024020117", "date": "20241024", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 9.05 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 116, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477968", "goalieName": "Alex Nedeljkovic", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8479661", "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 5, "recordedAttempts": 9, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021027", "date": "20260312", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2024020748", "date": "20250120", "season": 2024, "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2024020499", "date": "20241217", "season": 2024, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 3 }, { "gameId": "2021020727", "date": "20220122", "season": 2021, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 3 }, { "gameId": "2021020392", "date": "20211207", "season": 2021, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477968", "goalieName": "Alex Nedeljkovic", "opponent": "BOS", "games": 5, "availableGames": 8, "shotsAgainst": 134.0, "goalsAgainst": 17.0, "savePct": 0.8731343283582089, "gaa": 3.7850207186591627, "gsax": -3.2609999999999997, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021027", "date": "20260312", "goalieTeam": "SJS", "opponent": "BOS", "shotsAgainst": 41.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.661 }, { "gameId": "2024020952", "date": "20250301", "goalieTeam": "PIT", "opponent": "BOS", "shotsAgainst": 25.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3474.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.566 }, { "gameId": "2023021279", "date": "20240413", "goalieTeam": "PIT", "opponent": "BOS", "shotsAgainst": 16.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 1895.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.22 }, { "gameId": "2023021012", "date": "20240309", "goalieTeam": "PIT", "opponent": "BOS", "shotsAgainst": 23.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.955 }, { "gameId": "2023020589", "date": "20240104", "goalieTeam": "PIT", "opponent": "BOS", "shotsAgainst": 29.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.337 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.5117495158166558, "adjustedSOG": 0.5117495158166558, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.5117495158166558, "adjustedSOG": 0.5117495158166558, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.11235635066200493, "goalHistoryGoals": 14.0, "goalHistoryShots": 139.0, "goalExpected": 0.05749830805020742, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.05749830805020742, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.05587651220538985, "goalProbability": 0.05587651220538985, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1285316780821918, "modelSOG": 0.5117495158166558, "historyGames": 154, "seasonGames": { "2024": 67, "2025": 77, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 14.0, "historyShots": 139.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.10071942446043165, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.11235635066200493, "goalieFactor": 0.9618500831522029, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 42.8015816001113, "btb": { "id": "8479661", "name": "Tanner Jeannot", "score": 42.8015816001113, "components": { "Goal model": 18.372093023255815, "SOG model": 6.976744186046512, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 17.209302325581394, "Goalie": 97.5, "Team H2H": 49.26566579634465, "Goalie H2H": 49.17545684147972 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 6, "goalieH2HShots": 3, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 308 } }, { "id": "8482699", "name": "Dylan Guenther", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "TBL", "position": "R", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 3.0, "priorSOG": 3.0632911392405062, "currentTOI": 16.413333333333334, "currentFiveTOI": 12.113333333333333, "ppShare": 0.7558625120462577, "rate": 2.720032054346867, "fifty": 2.7454679515997804, "inputs": { "Player": "Dylan Guenther", "Player_ID": "8482699", "Team": "UTA", "Opponent": "TBL", "Position": "R", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 3.5861415542409265, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 3.840203317265424, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 10, "Prior_GP": 79, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 7.429829389102917, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 9.629214382958276, "Current_PP_SOG60": 22.94942626434339, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 13.719885667619437, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 12.430915611814346, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 12.113333333333333, "Current_PP_Share": 0.7558625120462577, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.6509491942092326, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2353.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3113.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 6, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.821018518518519, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 3.4922904535894803, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 3.6440271680289356, "Other_State_SOG": 0.20506329113924052, "Environment_Proxy": 0.8844868901771036, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 3.0632911392405062, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/utah-mammoth/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:41.819926+00:00", "priorGP": 79, "currentTotalSOG": 30.0, "currentPPTOI": 3.921666666666667, "volumeNote": "Observed 3.00 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 3.701, "currentIXG": 0.3701, "priorTOI": 17.396413502109702, "priorPPTOI": 3.1, "deploymentChange": -0.9830801687763682, "ppTOIChange": 0.8216666666666668, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020825", "date": "20260126", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "away", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 11.0, "toi": 18.466666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2025020194", "date": "20251102", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 18.183333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024021145", "date": "20250327", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 15.566666666666666 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 2.6666666666666665, "opponentDefense": { "team": "TBL", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 218.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 24.22222222222222, "mostAllowedRank": 29, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.310572168589594, "pkSogAllowed60": 47.9002079002079, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 36.333333333333336, "positionUnassignedSOG": 1.0, "positionTotals": { "L": 36.0, "R": 49.0, "D": 66.0, "C": 66.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.333333333333333, "L": 4.0, "R": 5.444444444444445, "D": 7.333333333333333 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 24.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.25, "positionSourceDifference": 1.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 24.22222222222222, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.444444444444445, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8483710", "team": "TBL", "name": "Dennis Hildeby", "status": "Unconfirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 2, "savePct": 0.92, "gaa": 2.0089285714285716, "gsax": 0.8719999999999999, "goalsAllowed": 4.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.872, "shotsAgainst": 50.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9926942170737747, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Starter remains unconfirmed per Daily Faceoff; no Model Goal adjustment.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": null }, "goalShootingPct": 0.1455571638394663, "goalHistoryGoals": 71.0, "goalHistoryShots": 476.0, "goalExpected": 0.4230689376640135, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.4230689376640135, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.34496652492234303, "goalProbability": 0.34496652492234303, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 2.906548372504788, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 7.429829389102917, "Current_PP_SOG60": 22.94942626434339, "Current_5v5_Min": 12.113333333333333, "Current_PP_Share": 0.7558625120462577, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.821018518518519, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 3.6440271680289356, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9588832837562793, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0032616490671127, "Position_Factor": 1.0162667912072254, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2353.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3113.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 9.629214382958276, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 13.719885667619437, "Prior_5v5_Min": 13.171940928270041, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.6509491942092326, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.005464480874317, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.382352941176471, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.005464480874317, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0032616490671127, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 7.429829389102917, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 22.94942626434339, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 3.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020825", "date": "20260126", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "away", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 11.0, "toi": 18.466666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2025020194", "date": "20251102", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 18.183333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024021145", "date": "20250327", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 15.566666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024021111", "date": "20250322", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 13.183333333333334 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 274, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 103, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8483710", "goalieName": "Dennis Hildeby", "starterStatus": "Unconfirmed", "shooterId": "8482699", "goals": 2, "sog": 8, "shootingPct": 0.25, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 11, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020733", "date": "20260113", "season": 2025, "goals": 2, "sog": 8, "attempts": 11 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8483710", "goalieName": "Dennis Hildeby", "opponent": "UTA", "games": 1, "availableGames": 1, "shotsAgainst": 41.0, "goalsAgainst": 6.0, "savePct": 0.8536585365853658, "gaa": 6.0, "gsax": -1.2770000000000001, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020733", "date": "20260113", "goalieTeam": "TOR", "opponent": "UTA", "shotsAgainst": 41.0, "goalsAgainst": 6.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.723 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 2.906548372504788, "adjustedSOG": 2.906548372504788, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 2.906548372504788, "adjustedSOG": 2.906548372504788, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.1455571638394663, "goalHistoryGoals": 71.0, "goalHistoryShots": 476.0, "goalExpected": 0.4230689376640135, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.4230689376640135, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.34496652492234303, "goalProbability": 0.34496652492234303, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12840926371532593, "modelSOG": 2.906548372504788, "historyGames": 159, "seasonGames": { "2024": 70, "2025": 79, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 71.0, "historyShots": 476.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.14915966386554622, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.1455571638394663, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 64.16325043588387, "btb": { "id": "8482699", "name": "Dylan Guenther", "score": 64.16325043588387, "components": { "Goal model": 96.04651162790698, "SOG model": 94.18604651162791, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 90.93023255813954, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 41.010816859380824, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Unconfirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": 8, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 42 } }, { "id": "8483756", "name": "Jared Wright", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "NJD", "position": "R", "currentGP": 1, "currentSOG": 3.0, "priorSOG": 1.391304347826087, "currentTOI": 10.4, "currentFiveTOI": 10.4, "ppShare": 0.0, "rate": 1.3966883450925789, "fifty": 1.9408047611626746, "inputs": { "Player": "Jared Wright", "Player_ID": "8483756", "Team": "LAK", "Opponent": "NJD", "Position": "R", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.3011148766770413, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.8014573761097465, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 1, "Prior_GP": 23, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 17.307692307692307, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.915540756867516, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 10.675, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 10.4, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0, "Prior_PP_Share": 0, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 120.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 1, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.575661375661376, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.0, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.0, "Other_State_SOG": 0.0782608695652174, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9357862710703578, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.391304347826087, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/los-angeles-kings/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:41.837838+00:00", "priorGP": 23, "currentTotalSOG": 3.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.0, "volumeNote": "Observed 3.00 SOG/game in 1 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 1 games. 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MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021050", "date": "20260314", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 13.116666666666667 } ], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 38, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. 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Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8474596", "goalieName": "Jake Allen", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8483756", "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 3, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021050", "date": "20260314", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 3 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8474596", "goalieName": "Jake Allen", "opponent": "LAK", "games": 5, "availableGames": 17, "shotsAgainst": 151.0, "goalsAgainst": 16.0, "savePct": 0.8940397350993378, "gaa": 3.2597623089983023, "gsax": 1.5839999999999996, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021050", "date": "20260314", "goalieTeam": "NJD", "opponent": "LAK", "shotsAgainst": 31.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.558 }, { "gameId": "2024020602", "date": "20250101", "goalieTeam": "NJD", "opponent": "LAK", "shotsAgainst": 23.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3431.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.828 }, { "gameId": "2023020309", "date": "20231125", "goalieTeam": "MTL", "opponent": "LAK", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.339 }, { "gameId": "2022020982", "date": "20230302", "goalieTeam": "MTL", "opponent": "LAK", "shotsAgainst": 33.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3509.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.849 }, { "gameId": "2022020439", "date": "20221210", "goalieTeam": "MTL", "opponent": "LAK", "shotsAgainst": 34.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3530.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.01 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 3.0423123382226054, "adjustedSOG": 3.0423123382226054, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 3.1044003451251077, "adjustedSOG": 3.0423123382226054, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.09521282634120327, "goalHistoryGoals": 0.0, "goalHistoryShots": 35.0, "goalExpected": 0.29557873095396836, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.29557873095396836, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.255899171351211, "goalProbability": 0.255899171351211, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12853731556062442, "modelSOG": 3.0423123382226054, "historyGames": 24, "seasonGames": { "2025": 23, "2026": 1 }, "historyGoals": 0.0, "historyShots": 35.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.0, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.09521282634120327, "goalieFactor": 1.0365218981504722, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8477505", "name": "Alexander Wennberg", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "BOS", "position": "C", "currentGP": 9, "currentSOG": 1.5555555555555556, "priorSOG": 1.1625, "currentTOI": 20.001851851851853, "currentFiveTOI": 13.753703703703703, "ppShare": 0.7096453430560159, "rate": 1.2317870835385079, "fifty": 1.2516499730762072, "inputs": { "Player": "Alexander Wennberg", "Player_ID": "8477505", "Team": "SJS", "Opponent": "BOS", "Position": "C", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.1624485113706218, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.094448138006238, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 9, "Prior_GP": 80, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.8777433687895515, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.14103606867689, "Current_PP_SOG60": 3.362914525922466, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 5.471486156082733, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 13.85390509259259, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 13.753703703703703, "Current_PP_Share": 0.7096453430560159, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.6273741920871052, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2141.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3017.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 5, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.0425, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 3.453930958731741, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 3.5783866423599604, "Other_State_SOG": 0.16819444444444445, "Environment_Proxy": 1.0253180054689388, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.1625, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:41.855037+00:00", "priorGP": 80, "currentTotalSOG": 14.0, "currentPPTOI": 3.9648148148148143, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.56 SOG/game in 9 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 9 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 2.452, "currentIXG": 0.27244444444444443, "priorTOI": 20.456041666666668, "priorPPTOI": 3.1527083333333334, "deploymentChange": -0.45418981481481424, "ppTOIChange": 0.8121064814814809, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2026020105", "date": "20261013", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 20.0 }, { "gameId": "2025021027", "date": "20260312", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 18.533333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2025020351", "date": "20251123", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 18.966666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2024021117", "date": "20250322", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 21.25 }, { "gameId": "2024020740", "date": "20250120", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 18.983333333333334 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 5, "h2hSOG": 1.2, "opponentDefense": { "team": "BOS", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 280.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 28.0, "mostAllowedRank": 11, "fiveSogAllowed60": 26.539776154413243, "pkSogAllowed60": 48.89206576125804, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 42.4, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 68.0, "R": 50.0, "L": 68.0, "C": 94.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.4, "L": 6.8, "R": 5.0, "D": 6.8 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 26.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 25.0, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 28.0, "oppPosSogAllowed": 9.4, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8480280", "team": "BOS", "name": "Jeremy Swayman", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 8, "savePct": 0.9279279279279279, "gaa": 1.976189659313137, "gsax": 7.695, "goalsAllowed": 16.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 23.695, "shotsAgainst": 222.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9412127550171275, "factor": 0.9412127550171275, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T14:59:19.712Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.14133706067653948, "goalHistoryGoals": 28.0, "goalHistoryShots": 189.0, "goalExpected": 0.21259054768452984, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.20009293507675635, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.19151289362844742, "goalProbability": 0.18134533219184829, "goalAdjustmentPP": -1.0167561436599137, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 9, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.5041387352115616, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.8777433687895515, "Current_PP_SOG60": 3.362914525922466, "Current_5v5_Min": 13.753703703703703, "Current_PP_Share": 0.7096453430560159, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.0425, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 3.5783866423599604, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.4444444444444444, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0194233133624404, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.013580746919003, "Position_Factor": 0.9960977690937871, "Input_GP": 9, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2141.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3017.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.14103606867689, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 5.471486156082733, "Prior_5v5_Min": 14.087708333333333, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.6273741920871052, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9979916897506925, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.437908496732026, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9979916897506925, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.013580746919003, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 3.8777433687895515, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 3.362914525922466, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.0 }, { "season": "2026", "label": "2026–27", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 4.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2026020105", "date": "20261013", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 20.0 }, { "gameId": "2025021027", "date": "20260312", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 18.533333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2025020351", "date": "20251123", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 18.966666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2024021117", "date": "20250322", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 21.25 }, { "gameId": "2024020740", "date": "20250120", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 18.983333333333334 } ], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Reviewed October22 projected lineup and coach reports", "ppAssignmentSourceDate": "2026-10-13T18:05:17.352Z", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 81, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 41, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480280", "goalieName": "Jeremy Swayman", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8477505", "goals": 0, "sog": 10, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 4, "recordedAttempts": 12, "log": [ { "gameId": "2026020105", "date": "20261013", "season": 2026, "goals": 0, "sog": 4, "attempts": 5 }, { "gameId": "2025020351", "date": "20251123", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2023020837", "date": "20240215", "season": 2023, "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 3 }, { "gameId": "2022020927", "date": "20230223", "season": 2022, "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 3 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480280", "goalieName": "Jeremy Swayman", "opponent": "SJS", "games": 5, "availableGames": 6, "shotsAgainst": 123.0, "goalsAgainst": 9.0, "savePct": 0.926829268292683, "gaa": 2.2632020117351215, "gsax": 2.58, "log": [ { "gameId": "2026020105", "date": "20261013", "goalieTeam": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "shotsAgainst": 38.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.146 }, { "gameId": "2025021027", "date": "20260312", "goalieTeam": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "shotsAgainst": 28.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3406.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.91 }, { "gameId": "2025020351", "date": "20251123", "goalieTeam": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3588.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.577 }, { "gameId": "2023020340", "date": "20231130", "goalieTeam": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "shotsAgainst": 26.0, "goalsAgainst": 0.0, "seconds": 3574.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.886 }, { "gameId": "2022020748", "date": "20230122", "goalieTeam": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "shotsAgainst": 1.0, "goalsAgainst": 0.0, "seconds": 148.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 0.061 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.5041387352115616, "adjustedSOG": 1.5041387352115616, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.5348354440934302, "adjustedSOG": 1.5041387352115616, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.14133706067653948, "goalHistoryGoals": 28.0, "goalHistoryShots": 189.0, "goalExpected": 0.21692913029033656, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.20417646436403708, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.19501298352034002, "goalProbability": 0.18468151616556658, "goalAdjustmentPP": -1.0331467354773443 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12846410535519906, "modelSOG": 1.5041387352115616, "historyGames": 166, "seasonGames": { "2024": 77, "2025": 80, "2026": 9 }, "historyGoals": 28.0, "historyShots": 189.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.14814814814814814, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.14133706067653948, "goalieFactor": 0.9412127550171275, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8481656", "name": "Aliaksei Protas", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "position": "L", "currentGP": 9, "currentSOG": 1.0, "priorSOG": 2.0921052631578947, "currentTOI": 15.853703703703705, "currentFiveTOI": 12.477777777777778, "ppShare": 0.003972983710766786, "rate": 1.753495207387768, "fifty": 1.4468768712079891, "inputs": { "Player": "Aliaksei Protas", "Player_ID": "8481656", "Team": "WSH", "Opponent": "BUF", "Position": "L", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.5879478900382376, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.295951841974805, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 9, "Prior_GP": 76, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.205699020480855, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.660890761978884, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 6.926406926406926, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 13.214641812865496, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 12.477777777777778, "Current_PP_Share": 0.003972983710766786, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.10418922863374586, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 10.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2517.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 5, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.500555555555556, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.15318926726513207, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.017880633911623187, "Other_State_SOG": 0.37675438596491223, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9496227273390297, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 2.0921052631578947, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:41.872571+00:00", "priorGP": 76, "currentTotalSOG": 9.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.018518518518518517, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.00 SOG/game in 9 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 9 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.37, "currentIXG": 0.15222222222222223, "priorTOI": 18.236184210526318, "priorPPTOI": 0.45592105263157895, "deploymentChange": -2.3824805068226134, "ppTOIChange": -0.4374025341130604, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021213", "date": "20260404", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 16.25 }, { "gameId": "2025021028", "date": "20260312", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 16.516666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020186", "date": "20251101", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 18.416666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2024021171", "date": "20250330", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 15.233333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020637", "date": "20250106", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 20.0 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 6, "h2hSOG": 2.8, "opponentDefense": { "team": "BUF", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 257.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 25.7, "mostAllowedRank": 24, "fiveSogAllowed60": 21.645723550871505, "pkSogAllowed60": 62.21198156682028, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 40.1, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 61.0, "L": 55.0, "D": 65.0, "C": 76.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.6, "L": 5.5, "R": 6.1, "D": 6.5 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 30.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.25, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 25.7, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.5, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8480045", "team": "BUF", "name": "Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 8, "savePct": 0.8629441624365483, "gaa": 3.5349310833909153, "gsax": -3.6580000000000013, "goalsAllowed": 27.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 23.342, "shotsAgainst": 197.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.035448902624297, "factor": 1.035448902624297, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T15:43:35.500Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.1650518073706224, "goalHistoryGoals": 55.0, "goalHistoryShots": 311.0, "goalExpected": 0.16981120960597063, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.17583083063980676, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.15617589255464442, "goalProbability": 0.16124013619466265, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.5064243640018229, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 9, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.028835808048203, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.205699020480855, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 12.477777777777778, "Current_PP_Share": 0.003972983710766786, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.500555555555556, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.017880633911623187, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.3333333333333333, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.922717716387106, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.1429256259066152, "Position_Factor": 1.0189267959999297, "Input_GP": 9, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 10.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2517.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.660890761978884, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 6.926406926406926, "Prior_5v5_Min": 14.933991228070175, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.10418922863374586, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0432537120723047, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.062091503267974, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0432537120723047, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.1429256259066152, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 3.5702479338842976, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 3.6666666666666665 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 2.3333333333333335 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021213", "date": "20260404", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 16.25 }, { "gameId": "2025021028", "date": "20260312", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 16.516666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020186", "date": "20251101", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 18.416666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2024021171", "date": "20250330", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 15.233333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020637", "date": "20250106", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 20.0 }, { "gameId": "2024020480", "date": "20241214", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 18.866666666666667 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "NHL.com October 20 game-specific projected lineup", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 223, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. 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Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.176, "currentIXG": 0.029333333333333333, "priorTOI": 19.591772151898734, "priorPPTOI": 1.440506329113924, "deploymentChange": 2.7693389592123765, "ppTOIChange": -0.7293952180028128, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021240", "date": "20260407", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 18.483333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020693", "date": "20260108", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 16.5 }, { "gameId": "2025020465", "date": "20251208", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 18.133333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024021088", "date": "20250319", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 17.75 }, { "gameId": "2024020982", "date": "20250304", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 18.433333333333334 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 6, "h2hSOG": 2.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "SEA", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 311.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 31.1, "mostAllowedRank": 3, "fiveSogAllowed60": 29.01212141229316, "pkSogAllowed60": 57.63738641280831, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 48.5, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 101.0, "R": 65.0, "L": 58.0, "D": 87.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.1, "L": 5.8, "R": 6.5, "D": 8.7 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 31.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 3, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 28.666666666666668, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 31.1, "oppPosSogAllowed": 8.7, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8478916", "team": "SEA", "name": "Joey Daccord", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 5, "savePct": 0.881578947368421, "gaa": 3.8855909336211547, "gsax": -2.3970000000000002, "goalsAllowed": 18.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 15.603, "shotsAgainst": 152.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.024854248577667, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Likely starter per Daily Faceoff; no Model Goal adjustment until confirmed.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T20:31:39.541Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.06500687635267506, "goalHistoryGoals": 14.0, "goalHistoryShots": 204.0, "goalExpected": 0.08117177501745881, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.08117177501745881, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.07796470478819292, "goalProbability": 0.07796470478819292, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 6, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.2486644424673785, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.005085823267642, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 17.477777777777778, "Current_PP_Share": 0.1932075471698113, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 3.9491666666666667, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.7630088050314465, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0689197555315912, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0920680305430235, "Position_Factor": 1.0046361324392672, "Input_GP": 6, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 256.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1325.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.6629843014958507, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 4.21792618629174, "Prior_5v5_Min": 15.965400843881856, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.2730186501498711, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0921263345195729, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.34640522875817, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0921263345195729, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0920680305430235, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 4.005085823267642, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 1.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 2.3333333333333335 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021240", "date": "20260407", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 18.483333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020693", "date": "20260108", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 16.5 }, { "gameId": "2025020465", "date": "20251208", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 18.133333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024021088", "date": "20250319", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 17.75 }, { "gameId": "2024020982", "date": "20250304", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 18.433333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020033", "date": "20241012", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 19.55 } ], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 112, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 11, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478916", "goalieName": "Joey Daccord", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8474716", "goals": 1, "sog": 6, "shootingPct": 0.16666666666666666, "gamesWithAttempts": 4, "recordedAttempts": 8, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021240", "date": "20260407", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 3 }, { "gameId": "2024020982", "date": "20250304", "season": 2024, "goals": 1, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2 }, { "gameId": "2024020033", "date": "20241012", "season": 2024, "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2023020426", "date": "20231210", "season": 2023, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478916", "goalieName": "Joey Daccord", "opponent": "MIN", "games": 5, "availableGames": 6, "shotsAgainst": 123.0, "goalsAgainst": 19.0, "savePct": 0.8455284552845528, "gaa": 4.3387250237868695, "gsax": -6.912000000000001, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021240", "date": "20260407", "goalieTeam": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 28.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3488.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.569 }, { "gameId": "2024020982", "date": "20250304", "goalieTeam": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 20.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3463.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.635 }, { "gameId": "2024020033", "date": "20241012", "goalieTeam": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 38.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3885.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.839 }, { "gameId": "2023021307", "date": "20240418", "goalieTeam": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.121 }, { "gameId": "2023020913", "date": "20240224", "goalieTeam": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 13.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 1329.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.924 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.2486644424673785, "adjustedSOG": 1.2486644424673785, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.2741473902728353, "adjustedSOG": 1.2486644424673785, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.06500687635267506, "goalHistoryGoals": 14.0, "goalHistoryShots": 204.0, "goalExpected": 0.08282834185454982, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.08282834185454982, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.0794908534482324, "goalProbability": 0.0794908534482324, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05762090411213218, "modelSOG": 1.2486644424673785, "historyGames": 151, "seasonGames": { "2024": 66, "2025": 79, "2026": 6 }, "historyGoals": 14.0, "historyShots": 204.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.06862745098039216, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.06500687635267506, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8484241", "name": "Matthew Wood", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "PIT", "position": "C", "currentGP": 8, "currentSOG": 1.5, "priorSOG": 1.4507042253521127, "currentTOI": 15.2875, "currentFiveTOI": 11.275, "ppShare": 0.42786823173040517, "rate": 1.5780384312216051, "fifty": 1.5013912489168675, "inputs": { "Player": "Matthew Wood", "Player_ID": "8484241", "Team": "NSH", "Opponent": "PIT", "Position": "R", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.3988813853537845, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.479773244161429, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 8, "Prior_GP": 71, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.656319290465632, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.009214128330107, "Current_PP_SOG60": 9.557522123893806, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 11.073515841279606, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 11.056654929577466, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 11.275, "Current_PP_Share": 0.42786823173040517, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.37798498563815297, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1130.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2641.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 5, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.906041666666667, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 2.0257205875732036, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 2.0991393727123566, "Other_State_SOG": 0.11373239436619717, "Environment_Proxy": 1.0227478110844896, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.4507042253521127, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/nashville-predators/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:41.909847+00:00", "priorGP": 71, "currentTotalSOG": 12.0, "currentPPTOI": 2.3541666666666665, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.50 SOG/game in 8 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 8 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.824, "currentIXG": 0.228, "priorTOI": 12.321126760563379, "priorPPTOI": 1.5262910798122065, "deploymentChange": 2.9663732394366207, "ppTOIChange": 0.82787558685446, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020296", "date": "20251116", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "PIT", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 15.266666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020281", "date": "20251114", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "PIT", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 15.1 } ], "h2hGames": 2, "h2hAvailableGames": 2, "h2hSOG": 1.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "PIT", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 279.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.9, "mostAllowedRank": 12, "fiveSogAllowed60": 26.122338261223383, "pkSogAllowed60": 50.11600928074246, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 42.4, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 55.0, "L": 47.0, "D": 70.0, "C": 107.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.7, "L": 4.7, "R": 5.5, "D": 7.0 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 25.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 3, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 28.333333333333332, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.9, "oppPosSogAllowed": 10.7, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8481668", "team": "PIT", "name": "Arturs Silovs", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 6, "savePct": 0.8662420382165605, "gaa": 3.5131744040150563, "gsax": -1.0760000000000005, "goalsAllowed": 21.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 19.924, "shotsAgainst": 157.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0136052553954562, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Likely starter per Daily Faceoff; no Model Goal adjustment until confirmed.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T15:01:09.604Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.13833079442382534, "goalHistoryGoals": 18.0, "goalHistoryShots": 123.0, "goalExpected": 0.20689966838998916, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.20689966838998916, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.18689877434973495, "goalProbability": 0.18689877434973495, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 8, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.4956877046196873, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.656319290465632, "Current_PP_SOG60": 9.557522123893806, "Current_5v5_Min": 11.275, "Current_PP_Share": 0.42786823173040517, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.906041666666667, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 2.0991393727123566, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.25, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.011083778612368, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0249142728068137, "Position_Factor": 1.013339402198195, "Input_GP": 8, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1130.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2641.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.009214128330107, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 11.073515841279606, "Prior_5v5_Min": 10.54718309859155, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.37798498563815297, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0668628808864264, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.437908496732026, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0668628808864264, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0249142728068137, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 4.656319290465632, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 9.557522123893806, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020296", "date": "20251116", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "PIT", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 15.266666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020281", "date": "20251114", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "PIT", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 15.1 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 113, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 25, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481668", "goalieName": "Arturs Silovs", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8484241", "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 1, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020281", "date": "20251114", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481668", "goalieName": "Arturs Silovs", "opponent": "NSH", "games": 2, "availableGames": 2, "shotsAgainst": 62.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "savePct": 0.9193548387096774, "gaa": 2.397123451857771, "gsax": 1.6559999999999997, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020281", "date": "20251114", "goalieTeam": "PIT", "opponent": "NSH", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3644.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.231 }, { "gameId": "2022021010", "date": "20230306", "goalieTeam": "VAN", "opponent": "NSH", "shotsAgainst": 32.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3865.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.425 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.4956877046196873, "adjustedSOG": 1.4956877046196873, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.5262119434894768, "adjustedSOG": 1.4956877046196873, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.13833079442382534, "goalHistoryGoals": 18.0, "goalHistoryShots": 123.0, "goalExpected": 0.21112211060202976, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.21112211060202976, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.1903248090805142, "goalProbability": 0.1903248090805142, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12847767156513054, "modelSOG": 1.4956877046196873, "historyGames": 85, "seasonGames": { "2024": 6, "2025": 71, "2026": 8 }, "historyGoals": 18.0, "historyShots": 123.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.14634146341463414, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.13833079442382534, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 55.629166919667256, "btb": { "id": "8484241", "name": "Matthew Wood", "score": 55.629166919667256, "components": { "Goal model": 68.6046511627907, "SOG model": 56.97674418604651, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 70.0, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 47.06266318537859, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Likely", "h2hGames": 2, "goalieH2HShots": 1, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 138 } }, { "id": "8484164", "name": "Dalibor Dvorsky", "team": "STL", "opponent": "CAR", "position": "C", "currentGP": 9, "currentSOG": 1.5555555555555556, "priorSOG": 1.3098591549295775, "currentTOI": 12.348148148148148, "currentFiveTOI": 10.559259259259258, "ppShare": 0.2897727272727273, "rate": 1.0887332509864793, "fifty": 1.1673076894962244, "inputs": { "Player": "Dalibor Dvorsky", "Player_ID": "8484164", "Team": "STL", "Opponent": "CAR", "Position": "R", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.2887271937122262, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.4462132666627225, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 9, "Prior_GP": 71, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 8.207646439845668, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.643283409694683, "Current_PP_SOG60": 4.705882352941177, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 10.77709866533616, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 11.049650495565988, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 10.559259259259258, "Current_PP_Share": 0.2897727272727273, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.4562332060023461, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 765.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2640.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 5, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.016414141414142, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 1.7041304167328006, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 1.4536200068870526, "Other_State_SOG": 0.02535211267605634, "Environment_Proxy": 0.85, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.3098591549295775, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/st-louis-blues/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:41.926360+00:00", "priorGP": 71, "currentTotalSOG": 14.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.4166666666666667, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.56 SOG/game in 9 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 9 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.996, "currentIXG": 0.22177777777777777, "priorTOI": 14.338967136150236, "priorPPTOI": 1.8819248826291082, "deploymentChange": -1.9908189880020881, "ppTOIChange": -0.46525821596244143, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021033", "date": "20260312", "team": "STL", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 12.4 }, { "gameId": "2025020730", "date": "20260113", "team": "STL", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 15.05 } ], "h2hGames": 2, "h2hAvailableGames": 2, "h2hSOG": 1.5, "opponentDefense": { "team": "CAR", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 246.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 22.363636363636363, "mostAllowedRank": 31, "fiveSogAllowed60": 21.75191064079953, "pkSogAllowed60": 32.87187039764359, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 33.09090909090909, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 77.0, "R": 66.0, "D": 59.0, "L": 44.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.0, "L": 4.0, "R": 6.0, "D": 5.363636363636363 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 23.0, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 7, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 22.428571428571427, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 22.363636363636363, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.0, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8481611", "team": "CAR", "name": "Pyotr Kochetkov", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 6, "savePct": 0.8991596638655462, "gaa": 1.9842910293509715, "gsax": 2.2720000000000002, "goalsAllowed": 12.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 14.272, "shotsAgainst": 119.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9828959307519136, "factor": 0.9828959307519136, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T22:32:34.088Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.12846760691577355, "goalHistoryGoals": 14.0, "goalHistoryShots": 109.0, "goalExpected": 0.17290601112927065, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.16994861474150522, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.1587833238654471, "goalProbability": 0.15629183035508828, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.2491493510358822, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 9, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.3459113568032133, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 8.207646439845668, "Current_PP_SOG60": 4.705882352941177, "Current_5v5_Min": 10.559259259259258, "Current_PP_Share": 0.2897727272727273, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.016414141414142, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.4536200068870526, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9235603264096603, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.85, "Position_Factor": 0.9873314343303702, "Input_GP": 9, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 765.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2640.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.643283409694683, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 10.77709866533616, "Prior_5v5_Min": 12.193896713615024, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.4562332060023461, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.8646946313151299, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.437908496732026, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.8646946313151299, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.85, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 8.207646439845668, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 4.705882352941177, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021033", "date": "20260312", "team": "STL", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 12.4 }, { "gameId": "2025020730", "date": "20260113", "team": "STL", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 15.05 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 106, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 34, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481611", "goalieName": "Pyotr Kochetkov", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8484164", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481611", "goalieName": "Pyotr Kochetkov", "opponent": "STL", "games": 3, "availableGames": 3, "shotsAgainst": 60.0, "goalsAgainst": 6.0, "savePct": 0.9, "gaa": 2.610587382160986, "gsax": -0.46099999999999985, "log": [ { "gameId": "2024020284", "date": "20241117", "goalieTeam": "CAR", "opponent": "STL", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3598.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.005 }, { "gameId": "2024020084", "date": "20241019", "goalieTeam": "CAR", "opponent": "STL", "shotsAgainst": 19.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3476.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.804 }, { "gameId": "2022020369", "date": "20221201", "goalieTeam": "CAR", "opponent": "STL", "shotsAgainst": 11.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 1200.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 0.73 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.3459113568032133, "adjustedSOG": 1.3459113568032133, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.3459113568032133, "adjustedSOG": 1.3459113568032133, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.12846760691577355, "goalHistoryGoals": 14.0, "goalHistoryShots": 109.0, "goalExpected": 0.17290601112927065, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.17290601112927065, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.1587833238654471, "goalProbability": 0.1587833238654471, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12849729845396674, "modelSOG": 1.3459113568032133, "historyGames": 82, "seasonGames": { "2024": 2, "2025": 71, "2026": 9 }, "historyGoals": 14.0, "historyShots": 109.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.12844036697247707, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.12846760691577355, "goalieFactor": 0.9828959307519136, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 54.30657241948331, "btb": { "id": "8484164", "name": "Dalibor Dvorsky", "score": 54.30657241948331, "components": { "Goal model": 58.83720930232558, "SOG model": 49.76744186046512, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 68.6046511627907, "Goalie": 50.14705882352941, "Team H2H": 54.50391644908616, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 2, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 156 } }, { "id": "8481532", "name": "Alex Turcotte", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "NJD", "position": "C", "currentGP": 3, "currentSOG": 0.3333333333333333, "priorSOG": 1.0806451612903225, "currentTOI": 14.105555555555556, "currentFiveTOI": 11.416666666666666, "ppShare": 0.283596837944664, "rate": 1.069111737295759, "fifty": 0.8094496293161882, "inputs": { "Player": "Alex Turcotte", "Player_ID": "8481532", "Team": "LAK", "Opponent": "NJD", "Position": "C", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 0.987316369836069, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 0.7510284084638111, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 3, "Prior_GP": 62, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 1.7518248175182483, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.056527590847914, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 6.563354603463993, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 11.107473118279568, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 11.416666666666666, "Current_PP_Share": 0.283596837944664, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.06919057320937068, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 287.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1012.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 3, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.575661375661376, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 1.0033279583683647, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 1.2976430976430977, "Other_State_SOG": 0.0, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9357862710703578, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.0806451612903225, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/los-angeles-kings/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:41.943860+00:00", "priorGP": 62, "currentTotalSOG": 1.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.5944444444444443, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.33 SOG/game in 3 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 3 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.32599999999999996, "currentIXG": 0.10866666666666665, "priorTOI": 10.825537634408601, "priorPPTOI": 0.2948924731182796, "deploymentChange": 3.280017921146955, "ppTOIChange": 1.2995519713261647, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020191", "date": "20251101", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 11.116666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020602", "date": "20250101", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 13.766666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020461", "date": "20241212", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 10.1 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 3, "h2hSOG": 1.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "NJD", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 234.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 26.0, "mostAllowedRank": 22, "fiveSogAllowed60": 24.374647357532442, "pkSogAllowed60": 52.512155591572125, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 37.111111111111114, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "L": 41.0, "D": 63.0, "C": 78.0, "R": 52.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 8.666666666666666, "L": 4.555555555555555, "R": 5.777777777777778, "D": 7.0 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 25.0, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 25.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 26.0, "oppPosSogAllowed": 8.666666666666666, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8474596", "team": "NJD", "name": "Jake Allen", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 6, "savePct": 0.8834355828220859, "gaa": 3.1496062992125986, "gsax": -3.708, "goalsAllowed": 19.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 15.292, "shotsAgainst": 163.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0365218981504722, "factor": 1.0365218981504722, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T17:31:56.013Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.10063104741738536, "goalHistoryGoals": 12.0, "goalHistoryShots": 147.0, "goalExpected": 0.03160035937812118, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.03275446448484724, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.03110628599637753, "goalProbability": 0.03222384616458997, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.11175601682124371, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 3, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 0.3140219662730232, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 1.7518248175182483, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 11.416666666666666, "Current_PP_Share": 0.283596837944664, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.575661375661376, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.2976430976430977, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9778442581785296, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0469775686735434, "Position_Factor": 0.99548950284298, "Input_GP": 3, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 287.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1012.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.056527590847914, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 6.563354603463993, "Prior_5v5_Min": 10.386021505376343, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.06919057320937068, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9612917334888467, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.437908496732026, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9612917334888467, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0469775686735434, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 1.7518248175182483, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 0.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020191", "date": "20251101", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 11.116666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020602", "date": "20250101", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 13.766666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020461", "date": "20241212", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 10.1 } ], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 104, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8474596", "goalieName": "Jake Allen", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8481532", "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 2, "log": [ { "gameId": "2024020602", "date": "20250101", "season": 2024, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8474596", "goalieName": "Jake Allen", "opponent": "LAK", "games": 5, "availableGames": 17, "shotsAgainst": 151.0, "goalsAgainst": 16.0, "savePct": 0.8940397350993378, "gaa": 3.2597623089983023, "gsax": 1.5839999999999996, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021050", "date": "20260314", "goalieTeam": "NJD", "opponent": "LAK", "shotsAgainst": 31.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.558 }, { "gameId": "2024020602", "date": "20250101", "goalieTeam": "NJD", "opponent": "LAK", "shotsAgainst": 23.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3431.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.828 }, { "gameId": "2023020309", "date": "20231125", "goalieTeam": "MTL", "opponent": "LAK", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.339 }, { "gameId": "2022020982", "date": "20230302", "goalieTeam": "MTL", "opponent": "LAK", "shotsAgainst": 33.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3509.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.849 }, { "gameId": "2022020439", "date": "20221210", "goalieTeam": "MTL", "opponent": "LAK", "shotsAgainst": 34.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3530.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.01 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.3140219662730232, "adjustedSOG": 0.3140219662730232, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.32043057782961554, "adjustedSOG": 0.3140219662730232, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.10063104741738536, "goalHistoryGoals": 12.0, "goalHistoryShots": 147.0, "goalExpected": 0.03224526467155223, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.03224526467155223, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.03173092924179356, "goalProbability": 0.03173092924179356, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12855868712094184, "modelSOG": 0.3140219662730232, "historyGames": 133, "seasonGames": { "2024": 68, "2025": 62, "2026": 3 }, "historyGoals": 12.0, "historyShots": 147.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.08163265306122448, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.10063104741738536, "goalieFactor": 1.0365218981504722, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8478414", "name": "Timo Meier", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "LAK", "position": "L", "currentGP": 9, "currentSOG": 4.222222222222222, "priorSOG": 3.4935064935064934, "currentTOI": 16.327777777777776, "currentFiveTOI": 13.487037037037037, "ppShare": 0.3140860610518573, "rate": 3.343398078743613, "fifty": 3.617502184578986, "inputs": { "Player": "Timo Meier", "Player_ID": "8478414", "Team": "NJD", "Opponent": "LAK", "Position": "R", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 3.5907947334430714, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 4.051185487050551, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 9, "Prior_GP": 77, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 14.33475216257037, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 9.710013276500593, "Current_PP_SOG60": 29.508196721311474, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 20.016216842349124, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 14.087354497354497, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 13.487037037037037, "Current_PP_Share": 0.3140860610518573, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.4817884948058617, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 854.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2719.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 4, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.972354497354498, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 1.8119100234357677, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 1.5617472382275623, "Other_State_SOG": 0.3261183261183261, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9908219918860978, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 3.4935064935064934, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-jersey-devils/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:41.960842+00:00", "priorGP": 77, "currentTotalSOG": 38.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.5814814814814815, "volumeNote": "Observed 4.22 SOG/game in 9 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 9 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 3.06, "currentIXG": 0.34, "priorTOI": 18.516233766233768, "priorPPTOI": 1.8686147186147186, "deploymentChange": -2.188455988455992, "ppTOIChange": -0.28713323713323713, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021050", "date": "20260314", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 18.816666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020191", "date": "20251101", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 17.45 }, { "gameId": "2024020602", "date": "20250101", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 16.6 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 2.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "LAK", "games": 7, "sogAllowedTotal": 193.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.571428571428573, "mostAllowedRank": 14, "fiveSogAllowed60": 25.227874154660395, "pkSogAllowed60": 57.61396702230844, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 39.142857142857146, "positionUnassignedSOG": 1.0, "positionTotals": { "C": 86.0, "D": 47.0, "R": 28.0, "L": 31.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 12.285714285714286, "L": 4.428571428571429, "R": 4.0, "D": 6.714285714285714 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 27.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 29.5, "positionSourceDifference": 1.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.571428571428573, "oppPosSogAllowed": 4.428571428571429, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8476341", "team": "LAK", "name": "Anton Forsberg", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 3, "savePct": 0.8833333333333333, "gaa": 2.6313041662315966, "gsax": -2.1049999999999995, "goalsAllowed": 7.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.8950000000000005, "shotsAgainst": 60.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0218332511814823, "factor": 1.0218332511814823, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T19:00:24.293Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.09886512961315094, "goalHistoryGoals": 51.0, "goalHistoryShots": 546.0, "goalExpected": 0.4065834169174194, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.4154604547852027, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.33407845582332596, "goalProbability": 0.3399637061456589, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.5885250322332947, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 9, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 4.112505779422314, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 14.33475216257037, "Current_PP_SOG60": 29.508196721311474, "Current_5v5_Min": 13.487037037037037, "Current_PP_Share": 0.3140860610518573, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.972354497354498, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.5617472382275623, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.2222222222222222, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9946407827573338, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.085978140946376, "Position_Factor": 0.9860189907303214, "Input_GP": 9, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 854.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2719.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 9.710013276500593, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 20.016216842349124, "Prior_5v5_Min": 15.488095238095237, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.4817884948058617, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9484677021228117, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.062091503267974, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9484677021228117, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.085978140946376, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 14.33475216257037, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 29.508196721311474, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021050", "date": "20260314", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 18.816666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020191", "date": "20251101", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 17.45 }, { "gameId": "2024020602", "date": "20250101", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 16.6 }, { "gameId": "2024020461", "date": "20241212", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 8.0, "toi": 18.55 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 321, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 67, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476341", "goalieName": "Anton Forsberg", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8478414", "goals": 0, "sog": 23, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 6, "recordedAttempts": 31, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021050", "date": "20260314", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 4 }, { "gameId": "2024020737", "date": "20250119", "season": 2024, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 3 }, { "gameId": "2024020062", "date": "20241017", "season": 2024, "goals": 0, "sog": 5, "attempts": 5 }, { "gameId": "2023021224", "date": "20240406", "season": 2023, "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 4 }, { "gameId": "2022020383", "date": "20221203", "season": 2022, "goals": 0, "sog": 6, "attempts": 7 }, { "gameId": "2022020299", "date": "20221121", "season": 2022, "goals": 0, "sog": 7, "attempts": 8 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476341", "goalieName": "Anton Forsberg", "opponent": "NJD", "games": 5, "availableGames": 11, "shotsAgainst": 115.0, "goalsAgainst": 15.0, "savePct": 0.8695652173913043, "gaa": 4.18280402788536, "gsax": -4.362, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021050", "date": "20260314", "goalieTeam": "LAK", "opponent": "NJD", "shotsAgainst": 27.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3466.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.948 }, { "gameId": "2024020737", "date": "20250119", "goalieTeam": "OTT", "opponent": "NJD", "shotsAgainst": 26.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.295 }, { "gameId": "2024020062", "date": "20241017", "goalieTeam": "OTT", "opponent": "NJD", "shotsAgainst": 35.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3470.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.298 }, { "gameId": "2023021224", "date": "20240406", "goalieTeam": "OTT", "opponent": "NJD", "shotsAgainst": 9.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 994.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 0.874 }, { "gameId": "2022020274", "date": "20221119", "goalieTeam": "OTT", "opponent": "NJD", "shotsAgainst": 18.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 1380.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.223 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 4.112505779422314, "adjustedSOG": 4.112505779422314, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 4.112505779422314, "adjustedSOG": 4.112505779422314, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.09886512961315094, "goalHistoryGoals": 51.0, "goalHistoryShots": 546.0, "goalExpected": 0.4065834169174194, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.4065834169174194, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.33407845582332596, "goalProbability": 0.33407845582332596, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12866873730095504, "modelSOG": 4.112505779422314, "historyGames": 166, "seasonGames": { "2024": 80, "2025": 77, "2026": 9 }, "historyGoals": 51.0, "historyShots": 546.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.09340659340659341, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.09886512961315094, "goalieFactor": 1.0218332511814823, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 65.34293447523731, "btb": { "id": "8478414", "name": "Timo Meier", "score": 65.34293447523731, "components": { "Goal model": 95.81395348837209, "SOG model": 99.06976744186046, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 86.97674418604652, "Goalie": 76.61764705882354, "Team H2H": 42.95039164490861, "Goalie H2H": 34.24657534246575 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": 23, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 31 } }, { "id": "8480084", "name": "Nick DeSimone", "position": "D", "priorGP": 40, "priorSOG": 0.875, "priorTOI": 14.212916666666667, "priorPPTOI": 0.028333333333333332, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.09556313993174, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 14.65, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.821018518518519, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.0, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9588832837562793, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0032616490671127, "Position_Factor": 1.0144938104754524, "Input_GP": 1, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 189.0, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9991571455328714, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.34640522875817, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9991571455328714, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0032616490671127, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 4.09556313993174, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "inputs": null, "team": "UTA", "isHome": true, "opponent": "TBL", "opponentDefense": { "team": "TBL", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 218.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 24.22222222222222, "mostAllowedRank": 29, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.310572168589594, "pkSogAllowed60": 47.9002079002079, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 36.333333333333336, "positionUnassignedSOG": 1.0, "positionTotals": { "L": 36.0, "R": 49.0, "D": 66.0, "C": 66.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.333333333333333, "L": 4.0, "R": 5.444444444444445, "D": 7.333333333333333 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 24.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.25, "positionSourceDifference": 1.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8483710", "team": "TBL", "name": "Dennis Hildeby", "status": "Unconfirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 2, "savePct": 0.92, "gaa": 2.0089285714285716, "gsax": 0.8719999999999999, "goalsAllowed": 4.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.872, "shotsAgainst": 50.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9926942170737747, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Starter remains unconfirmed per Daily Faceoff; no Model Goal adjustment.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": null }, "oppSogAllowed": 24.22222222222222, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.333333333333333, "currentGP": 1, "currentTotalSOG": 1.0, "currentSOG": 1.0, "currentTOI": 15.65, "currentFiveTOI": 14.65, "currentPPTOI": 0.0, "currentIXG": 0.068, "currentIXGTotal": 0.068, "currentIXGGP": 1, "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "volumeNote": "Observed 1.00 SOG/game in 1 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 1 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "ppShare": 0.0, "trial": 0.9991571455328713, "deploymentChange": 1.4370833333333337, "ppTOIChange": -0.028333333333333332, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "goalShootingPct": 0.05480213248219077, "goalHistoryGoals": 3.0, "goalHistoryShots": 60.0, "goalExpected": 0.05475594226001997, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.05475594226001997, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.05328382682978254, "goalProbability": 0.05328382682978254, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020825", "date": "20260126", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 13.383333333333333 } ], "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020825", "date": "20260126", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 13.383333333333333 } ], "h2hGames": 1, "h2hAvailableGames": 1, "h2hSOG": 0.0, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 0.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "recentlyDressed": true, "boardEligible": true, "projected": false, "status": "Lineup pending", "line": null, "lineMates": [], "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:41.962117+00:00", "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/utah-mammoth/line-combinations", "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8483710", "goalieName": "Dennis Hildeby", "starterStatus": "Unconfirmed", "shooterId": "8480084", "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 4, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020733", "date": "20260113", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 4 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8483710", "goalieName": "Dennis Hildeby", "opponent": "UTA", "games": 1, "availableGames": 1, "shotsAgainst": 41.0, "goalsAgainst": 6.0, "savePct": 0.8536585365853658, "gaa": 6.0, "gsax": -1.2770000000000001, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020733", "date": "20260113", "goalieTeam": "TOR", "opponent": "UTA", "shotsAgainst": 41.0, "goalsAgainst": 6.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.723 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.9991571455328713, "adjustedSOG": 0.9991571455328713, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.9991571455328713, "adjustedSOG": 0.9991571455328713, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.05480213248219077, "goalHistoryGoals": 3.0, "goalHistoryShots": 60.0, "goalExpected": 0.05475594226001997, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.05475594226001997, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.05328382682978254, "goalProbability": 0.05328382682978254, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05768341197150523, "modelSOG": 0.9991571455328713, "historyGames": 61, "seasonGames": { "2024": 20, "2025": 40, "2026": 1 }, "historyGoals": 3.0, "historyShots": 60.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.05, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.05480213248219077, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 42.90824220712192, "btb": { "id": "8480084", "name": "Nick DeSimone", "score": 42.90824220712192, "components": { "Goal model": 17.209302325581394, "SOG model": 28.25581395348837, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 57.2093023255814, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 48.88440541182055, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Unconfirmed", "h2hGames": 1, "goalieH2HShots": 2, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 307 } }, { "id": "8484958", "name": "Maxim Tsyplakov", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "DET", "position": "L", "currentGP": 6, "currentSOG": 0.5, "priorSOG": 0.8571428571428571, "currentTOI": 11.191666666666668, "currentFiveTOI": 10.225, "ppShare": 0.2927094668117519, "rate": 0.8865427974083292, "fifty": 0.7538797107770885, "inputs": { "Player": "Maxim Tsyplakov", "Player_ID": "8484958", "Team": "CGY", "Opponent": "DET", "Position": "R", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 0.8953738442817488, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 0.7605514846029441, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 6, "Prior_GP": 49, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.93398533007335, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.776945707408398, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 9.828214285714285, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 10.225, "Current_PP_Share": 0.2927094668117519, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.028151034653729007, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 269.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 919.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 4, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.265740740740741, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.9100613930704978, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 1.24862269777939, "Other_State_SOG": 0.0, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9911254066849144, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 0.8571428571428571, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:41.980013+00:00", "priorGP": 49, "currentTotalSOG": 3.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.7472222222222222, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.50 SOG/game in 6 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 6 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.412, "currentIXG": 0.06866666666666667, "priorTOI": 9.120748299319729, "priorPPTOI": 0.10918367346938775, "deploymentChange": 2.0709183673469393, "ppTOIChange": 0.6380385487528345, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020115", "date": "20251023", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "DET", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 8.666666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020341", "date": "20241125", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "DET", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 15.3 }, { "gameId": "2024020308", "date": "20241121", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "DET", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 16.35 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 0.3333333333333333, "opponentDefense": { "team": "DET", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 243.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.0, "mostAllowedRank": 17, "fiveSogAllowed60": 24.49072666463971, "pkSogAllowed60": 47.14573539288113, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 41.22222222222222, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 39.0, "C": 96.0, "D": 73.0, "L": 35.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.666666666666666, "L": 3.888888888888889, "R": 4.333333333333333, "D": 8.11111111111111 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 29.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 2, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 28.5, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.0, "oppPosSogAllowed": 3.888888888888889, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8476434", "team": "DET", "name": "John Gibson", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 6, "savePct": 0.8734177215189873, "gaa": 3.5755077717634207, "gsax": -1.6310000000000002, "goalsAllowed": 20.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 18.369, "shotsAgainst": 158.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0182492009293351, "factor": 1.0182492009293351, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T17:52:44.365Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.09523936465987, "goalHistoryGoals": 12.0, "goalHistoryShots": 161.0, "goalExpected": 0.04239188872428042, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.04316550681938383, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.04150591606212943, "goalProbability": 0.04224713768131729, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0741221619187861, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 6, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 0.44510889878019777, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.93398533007335, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 10.225, "Current_PP_Share": 0.2927094668117519, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.265740740740741, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.24862269777939, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9801217943191682, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9957661672519493, "Position_Factor": 0.9733472642225318, "Input_GP": 6, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 269.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 919.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.776945707408398, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 8.902380952380952, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.028151034653729007, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.8902177975603955, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.062091503267974, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.8902177975603955, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9957661672519493, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 2.93398533007335, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 0.6666666666666666 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 0.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020115", "date": "20251023", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "DET", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 8.666666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020341", "date": "20241125", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "DET", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 15.3 }, { "gameId": "2024020308", "date": "20241121", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "DET", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 16.35 }, { "gameId": "2024020098", "date": "20241022", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "DET", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 16.016666666666666 } ], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Reviewed October22 projected lineup and coach reports", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 70, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476434", "goalieName": "John Gibson", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8484958", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476434", "goalieName": "John Gibson", "opponent": "CGY", "games": 5, "availableGames": 25, "shotsAgainst": 152.0, "goalsAgainst": 14.0, "savePct": 0.9078947368421053, "gaa": 2.9964328180737216, "gsax": 0.16800000000000015, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021063", "date": "20260316", "goalieTeam": "DET", "opponent": "CGY", "shotsAgainst": 27.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3589.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.703 }, { "gameId": "2025020477", "date": "20251210", "goalieTeam": "DET", "opponent": "CGY", "shotsAgainst": 37.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.965 }, { "gameId": "2024021203", "date": "20250403", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "CGY", "shotsAgainst": 26.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 2381.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.555 }, { "gameId": "2024020818", "date": "20250130", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "CGY", "shotsAgainst": 29.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3525.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.091 }, { "gameId": "2024020648", "date": "20250107", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "CGY", "shotsAgainst": 33.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3725.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.854 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.44510889878019777, "adjustedSOG": 0.44510889878019777, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.44510889878019777, "adjustedSOG": 0.44510889878019777, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.09523936465987, "goalHistoryGoals": 12.0, "goalHistoryShots": 161.0, "goalExpected": 0.04239188872428042, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.04239188872428042, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.04150591606212943, "goalProbability": 0.04150591606212943, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12857474176226072, "modelSOG": 0.44510889878019777, "historyGames": 132, "seasonGames": { "2024": 77, "2025": 49, "2026": 6 }, "historyGoals": 12.0, "historyShots": 161.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.07453416149068323, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.09523936465987, "goalieFactor": 1.0182492009293351, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8482702", "name": "Logan Stankoven", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "STL", "position": "C", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 2.909090909090909, "priorSOG": 2.049382716049383, "currentTOI": 17.62878787878788, "currentFiveTOI": 13.27727272727273, "ppShare": 0.30482560917343526, "rate": 2.158909459841886, "fifty": 2.3522192416914414, "inputs": { "Player": "Logan Stankoven", "Player_ID": "8482702", "Team": "CAR", "Opponent": "STL", "Position": "C", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 2.2877067991559983, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 2.4148496298681046, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 11, "Prior_GP": 81, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 9.85963711057857, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 7.502852361755534, "Current_PP_SOG60": 14.106583072100314, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 10.711387611576955, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 13.351806958473626, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 13.27727272727273, "Current_PP_Share": 0.30482560917343526, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.3443187921753721, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1276.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 4186.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 7, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 6.0017676767676775, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 1.9006011609462492, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 1.8294924881881407, "Other_State_SOG": 0.10505050505050505, "Environment_Proxy": 1.00049372648272, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 2.049382716049383, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:41.997884+00:00", "priorGP": 81, "currentTotalSOG": 32.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.9333333333333333, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.91 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 4.941, "currentIXG": 0.4491818181818182, "priorTOI": 15.450205761316873, "priorPPTOI": 1.5213991769547326, "deploymentChange": 2.178582117471006, "ppTOIChange": 0.41193415637860076, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021033", "date": "20260312", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "STL", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 16.5 }, { "gameId": "2025020730", "date": "20260113", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "STL", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 14.416666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020964", "date": "20250302", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "STL", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 12.966666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020783", "date": "20250125", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "STL", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 16.416666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2024020483", "date": "20241214", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "STL", "venue": "home", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 18.816666666666666 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 5, "h2hSOG": 2.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "STL", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 246.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.333333333333332, "mostAllowedRank": 15, "fiveSogAllowed60": 24.991224991224993, "pkSogAllowed60": 45.92737978410206, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 41.333333333333336, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 29.0, "L": 56.0, "D": 69.0, "C": 92.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.222222222222221, "L": 6.222222222222222, "R": 3.2222222222222223, "D": 7.666666666666667 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 27.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 3, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27.666666666666668, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.333333333333332, "oppPosSogAllowed": 10.222222222222221, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8480981", "team": "STL", "name": "Joel Hofer", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 6, "savePct": 0.9192546583850931, "gaa": 2.1949160491511117, "gsax": 2.83, "goalsAllowed": 13.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 15.83, "shotsAgainst": 161.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9785370006226618, "factor": 0.9785370006226618, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T15:44:23.131Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.10946768406231548, "goalHistoryGoals": 41.0, "goalHistoryShots": 392.0, "goalExpected": 0.3178836849640097, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.31106094763156117, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.2723125755187553, "goalProbability": 0.26733077994516685, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.49817955735884656, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 2.903904359418543, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 9.85963711057857, "Current_PP_SOG60": 14.106583072100314, "Current_5v5_Min": 13.27727272727273, "Current_PP_Share": 0.30482560917343526, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 6.0017676767676775, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.8294924881881407, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.2727272727272727, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9895702550696535, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9828075032932179, "Position_Factor": 1.009381033998414, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1276.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 4186.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 7.502852361755534, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 10.711387611576955, "Prior_5v5_Min": 13.525720164609053, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.3443187921753721, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0393643388249014, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.437908496732026, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0393643388249014, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9828075032932179, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 9.85963711057857, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 14.106583072100314, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 2.6666666666666665 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021033", "date": "20260312", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "STL", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 16.5 }, { "gameId": "2025020730", "date": "20260113", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "STL", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 14.416666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020964", "date": "20250302", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "STL", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 12.966666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020783", "date": "20250125", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "STL", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 16.416666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2024020483", "date": "20241214", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "STL", "venue": "home", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 18.816666666666666 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Reviewed October22 projected lineup and coach reports", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 206, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 36, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480981", "goalieName": "Joel Hofer", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8482702", "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 2, "recordedAttempts": 3, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020730", "date": "20260113", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2 }, { "gameId": "2024020964", "date": "20250302", "season": 2024, "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 1 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480981", "goalieName": "Joel Hofer", "opponent": "CAR", "games": 4, "availableGames": 4, "shotsAgainst": 121.0, "goalsAgainst": 10.0, "savePct": 0.9173553719008265, "gaa": 2.5300442757748263, "gsax": 1.0949999999999998, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020730", "date": "20260113", "goalieTeam": "STL", "opponent": "CAR", "shotsAgainst": 33.0, "goalsAgainst": 0.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.698 }, { "gameId": "2024020284", "date": "20241117", "goalieTeam": "STL", "opponent": "CAR", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.293 }, { "gameId": "2024020084", "date": "20241019", "goalieTeam": "STL", "opponent": "CAR", "shotsAgainst": 40.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.792 }, { "gameId": "2021020216", "date": "20211113", "goalieTeam": "STL", "opponent": "CAR", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3429.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.312 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 2.903904359418543, "adjustedSOG": 2.903904359418543, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 2.963167713692391, "adjustedSOG": 2.903904359418543, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.10946768406231548, "goalHistoryGoals": 41.0, "goalHistoryShots": 392.0, "goalExpected": 0.3243711071061323, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.3174091302362869, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.27701811112759006, "goalProbability": 0.2719671660597997, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.5050945067790358 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1285810055865922, "modelSOG": 2.903904359418543, "historyGames": 170, "seasonGames": { "2024": 78, "2025": 81, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 41.0, "historyShots": 392.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.10459183673469388, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.10946768406231548, "goalieFactor": 0.9785370006226618, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 63.66192439507173, "btb": { "id": "8482702", "name": "Logan Stankoven", "score": 63.66192439507173, "components": { "Goal model": 87.20930232558139, "SOG model": 93.95348837209302, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 95.81395348837209, "Goalie": 66.02941176470588, "Team H2H": 35.37859007832898, "Goalie H2H": 50.31264474293654 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 5, "goalieH2HShots": 1, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 46 } }, { "id": "8476906", "name": "Shayne Gostisbehere", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "STL", "position": "D", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 1.9090909090909092, "priorSOG": 2.109090909090909, "currentTOI": 18.045454545454547, "currentFiveTOI": 12.642424242424243, "ppShare": 0.7078356426182513, "rate": 2.0725257740026843, "fifty": 1.9505965249050023, "inputs": { "Player": "Shayne Gostisbehere", "Player_ID": "8476906", "Team": "CAR", "Opponent": "STL", "Position": "D", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 2.231533079720617, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 2.0351836816351336, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 11, "Prior_GP": 55, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.608820709491851, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.703667481662592, "Current_PP_SOG60": 7.289908876139048, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 9.577407142126265, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 13.497424242424243, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 12.642424242424243, "Current_PP_Share": 0.7078356426182513, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.6702417980926126, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2963.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 4186.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 7, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 6.0017676767676775, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 4.180576224054476, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 4.248265080330298, "Other_State_SOG": 0.13272727272727272, "Environment_Proxy": 1.00049372648272, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 2.109090909090909, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:42.019265+00:00", "priorGP": 55, "currentTotalSOG": 21.0, "currentPPTOI": 4.489393939393939, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.91 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. 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Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480981", "goalieName": "Joel Hofer", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8476906", "goals": 1, "sog": 11, "shootingPct": 0.09090909090909091, "gamesWithAttempts": 4, "recordedAttempts": 16, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020730", "date": "20260113", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 5, "attempts": 7 }, { "gameId": "2024020284", "date": "20241117", "season": 2024, "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 4 }, { "gameId": "2024020084", "date": "20241019", "season": 2024, "goals": 1, "sog": 2, "attempts": 4 }, { "gameId": "2023020909", "date": "20240224", "season": 2023, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480981", "goalieName": "Joel Hofer", "opponent": "CAR", "games": 4, "availableGames": 4, "shotsAgainst": 121.0, "goalsAgainst": 10.0, "savePct": 0.9173553719008265, "gaa": 2.5300442757748263, "gsax": 1.0949999999999998, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020730", "date": "20260113", "goalieTeam": "STL", "opponent": "CAR", "shotsAgainst": 33.0, "goalsAgainst": 0.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.698 }, { "gameId": "2024020284", "date": "20241117", "goalieTeam": "STL", "opponent": "CAR", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.293 }, { "gameId": "2024020084", "date": "20241019", "goalieTeam": "STL", "opponent": "CAR", "shotsAgainst": 40.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.792 }, { "gameId": "2021020216", "date": "20211113", "goalieTeam": "STL", "opponent": "CAR", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3429.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.312 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.8574180554686932, "adjustedSOG": 1.8574180554686932, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.8953245463966257, "adjustedSOG": 1.8574180554686932, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.0773004610983501, "goalHistoryGoals": 22.0, "goalHistoryShots": 259.0, "goalExpected": 0.14650946136748044, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.14336492888937605, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.1362824396531345, "goalProbability": 0.13356217699709444, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.27202626560400567 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.057508655343076885, "modelSOG": 1.8574180554686932, "historyGames": 136, "seasonGames": { "2024": 70, "2025": 55, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 22.0, "historyShots": 259.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.08494208494208494, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.0773004610983501, "goalieFactor": 0.9785370006226618, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 54.818776270475084, "btb": { "id": "8476906", "name": "Shayne Gostisbehere", "score": 54.818776270475084, "components": { "Goal model": 50.23255813953488, "SOG model": 70.46511627906976, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 54.651162790697676, "Goalie": 66.02941176470588, "Team H2H": 58.22454308093995, "Goalie H2H": 54.472699109332645 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 3, "goalieH2HShots": 11, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 149 } }, { "id": "8477220", "name": "Nate Schmidt", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "TBL", "position": "D", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 1.2, "priorSOG": 1.048780487804878, "currentTOI": 20.33833333333333, "currentFiveTOI": 17.835, "ppShare": 0.014776742691937038, "rate": 0.9502376757640631, "fifty": 1.0130395237640313, "inputs": { "Player": "Nate Schmidt", "Player_ID": "8477220", "Team": "UTA", "Opponent": "TBL", "Position": "D", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.184200258440951, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.3106139467663152, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 10, "Prior_GP": 82, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.037005887300253, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.2907165230532973, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 8.80195599022005, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 17.48748780487805, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 17.835, "Current_PP_Share": 0.014776742691937038, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.12219168260038242, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 46.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3113.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 6, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.821018518518519, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.2265937745004624, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.07123895016121165, "Other_State_SOG": 0.04390243902439025, "Environment_Proxy": 0.8844868901771036, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.048780487804878, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/utah-mammoth/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:42.039596+00:00", "priorGP": 82, "currentTotalSOG": 12.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.07666666666666667, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.20 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.5660000000000001, "currentIXG": 0.056600000000000004, "priorTOI": 19.698373983739838, "priorPPTOI": 0.5819105691056911, "deploymentChange": 0.639959349593493, "ppTOIChange": -0.5052439024390244, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020825", "date": "20260126", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 21.05 }, { "gameId": "2025020194", "date": "20251102", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 21.916666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2024021294", "date": "20250415", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 19.0 }, { "gameId": "2024020969", "date": "20250303", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 11.116666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020549", "date": "20241223", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 15.866666666666667 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 6, "h2hSOG": 1.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "TBL", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 218.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 24.22222222222222, "mostAllowedRank": 29, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.310572168589594, "pkSogAllowed60": 47.9002079002079, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 36.333333333333336, "positionUnassignedSOG": 1.0, "positionTotals": { "L": 36.0, "R": 49.0, "D": 66.0, "C": 66.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.333333333333333, "L": 4.0, "R": 5.444444444444445, "D": 7.333333333333333 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 24.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.25, "positionSourceDifference": 1.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 24.22222222222222, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.333333333333333, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8483710", "team": "TBL", "name": "Dennis Hildeby", "status": "Unconfirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 2, "savePct": 0.92, "gaa": 2.0089285714285716, "gsax": 0.8719999999999999, "goalsAllowed": 4.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.872, "shotsAgainst": 50.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9926942170737747, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Starter remains unconfirmed per Daily Faceoff; no Model Goal adjustment.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": null }, "goalShootingPct": 0.06255312198052587, "goalHistoryGoals": 11.0, "goalHistoryShots": 168.0, "goalExpected": 0.0750004785626781, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.0750004785626781, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.07225695765474827, "goalProbability": 0.07225695765474827, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.1989885746394457, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.037005887300253, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 17.835, "Current_PP_Share": 0.014776742691937038, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.821018518518519, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.07123895016121165, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9588832837562793, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0032616490671127, "Position_Factor": 1.0144938104754524, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 46.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3113.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.2907165230532973, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 8.80195599022005, "Prior_5v5_Min": 16.676626016260162, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.12219168260038242, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9991571455328714, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.34640522875817, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9991571455328714, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0032616490671127, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 4.037005887300253, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 4, "sogPerGame": 0.75 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020825", "date": "20260126", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 21.05 }, { "gameId": "2025020194", "date": "20251102", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 21.916666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2024021294", "date": "20250415", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 19.0 }, { "gameId": "2024020969", "date": "20250303", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 11.116666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020549", "date": "20241223", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 15.866666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020540", "date": "20241222", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 13.416666666666666 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 128, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 9, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8483710", "goalieName": "Dennis Hildeby", "starterStatus": "Unconfirmed", "shooterId": "8477220", "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 4, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020733", "date": "20260113", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 4 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8483710", "goalieName": "Dennis Hildeby", "opponent": "UTA", "games": 1, "availableGames": 1, "shotsAgainst": 41.0, "goalsAgainst": 6.0, "savePct": 0.8536585365853658, "gaa": 6.0, "gsax": -1.2770000000000001, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020733", "date": "20260113", "goalieTeam": "TOR", "opponent": "UTA", "shotsAgainst": 41.0, "goalsAgainst": 6.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.723 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.1989885746394457, "adjustedSOG": 1.1989885746394457, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.1989885746394457, "adjustedSOG": 1.1989885746394457, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.06255312198052587, "goalHistoryGoals": 11.0, "goalHistoryShots": 168.0, "goalExpected": 0.0750004785626781, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.0750004785626781, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.07225695765474827, "goalProbability": 0.07225695765474827, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.057642366907809314, "modelSOG": 1.1989885746394457, "historyGames": 172, "seasonGames": { "2024": 80, "2025": 82, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 11.0, "historyShots": 168.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.06547619047619048, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.06255312198052587, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 38.288451029206385, "btb": { "id": "8477220", "name": "Nate Schmidt", "score": 38.288451029206385, "components": { "Goal model": 25.348837209302324, "SOG model": 41.395348837209305, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 11.162790697674419, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 33.5509138381201, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Unconfirmed", "h2hGames": 6, "goalieH2HShots": 1, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 372 } }, { "id": "8480849", "name": "Barrett Hayton", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "TBL", "position": "C", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 1.7, "priorSOG": 1.7761194029850746, "currentTOI": 13.913333333333332, "currentFiveTOI": 12.266666666666667, "ppShare": 0.13556055252168325, "rate": 1.4837721164912123, "fifty": 1.4594786628307426, "inputs": { "Player": "Barrett Hayton", "Player_ID": "8480849", "Team": "UTA", "Opponent": "TBL", "Position": "C", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.8142356349861402, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.8686790717193107, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 10, "Prior_GP": 67, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 6.8478260869565215, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.584362139917696, "Current_PP_SOG60": 17.061611374407583, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 10.500951173113506, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 12.34047263681592, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 12.266666666666667, "Current_PP_Share": 0.13556055252168325, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.4118708390579199, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 422.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3113.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 6, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.821018518518519, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 1.0531690365621438, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.6535399340876373, "Other_State_SOG": 0.0637313432835821, "Environment_Proxy": 0.8844868901771036, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.7761194029850746, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/utah-mammoth/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:42.056851+00:00", "priorGP": 67, "currentTotalSOG": 17.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.7033333333333334, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.70 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.97, "currentIXG": 0.197, "priorTOI": 15.122885572139303, "priorPPTOI": 1.9614427860696515, "deploymentChange": -1.209552238805971, "ppTOIChange": -1.2581094527363181, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020825", "date": "20260126", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "away", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 8.0, "toi": 15.466666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020194", "date": "20251102", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 16.966666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2024021145", "date": "20250327", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 15.166666666666666 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 2.3333333333333335, "opponentDefense": { "team": "TBL", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 218.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 24.22222222222222, "mostAllowedRank": 29, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.310572168589594, "pkSogAllowed60": 47.9002079002079, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 36.333333333333336, "positionUnassignedSOG": 1.0, "positionTotals": { "L": 36.0, "R": 49.0, "D": 66.0, "C": 66.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.333333333333333, "L": 4.0, "R": 5.444444444444445, "D": 7.333333333333333 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 24.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.25, "positionSourceDifference": 1.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 24.22222222222222, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.333333333333333, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8483710", "team": "TBL", "name": "Dennis Hildeby", "status": "Unconfirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 2, "savePct": 0.92, "gaa": 2.0089285714285716, "gsax": 0.8719999999999999, "goalsAllowed": 4.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.872, "shotsAgainst": 50.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9926942170737747, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Starter remains unconfirmed per Daily Faceoff; no Model Goal adjustment.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": null }, "goalShootingPct": 0.11216223352209015, "goalHistoryGoals": 31.0, "goalHistoryShots": 291.0, "goalExpected": 0.17256924431437484, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.17256924431437484, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.1584999822974472, "goalProbability": 0.1584999822974472, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.5385681873068946, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 6.8478260869565215, "Current_PP_SOG60": 17.061611374407583, "Current_5v5_Min": 12.266666666666667, "Current_PP_Share": 0.13556055252168325, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.821018518518519, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.6535399340876373, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.1, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9588832837562793, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0032616490671127, "Position_Factor": 0.985038993166415, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 422.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3113.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.584362139917696, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 10.500951173113506, "Prior_5v5_Min": 12.51268656716418, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.4118708390579199, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.894372357486514, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.437908496732026, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.894372357486514, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0032616490671127, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 6.8478260869565215, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 17.061611374407583, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020825", "date": "20260126", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "away", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 8.0, "toi": 15.466666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020194", "date": "20251102", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 16.966666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2024021145", "date": "20250327", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 15.166666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024021111", "date": "20250322", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 13.2 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 134, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 30, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8483710", "goalieName": "Dennis Hildeby", "starterStatus": "Unconfirmed", "shooterId": "8480849", "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 5, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020733", "date": "20260113", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 5 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8483710", "goalieName": "Dennis Hildeby", "opponent": "UTA", "games": 1, "availableGames": 1, "shotsAgainst": 41.0, "goalsAgainst": 6.0, "savePct": 0.8536585365853658, "gaa": 6.0, "gsax": -1.2770000000000001, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020733", "date": "20260113", "goalieTeam": "TOR", "opponent": "UTA", "shotsAgainst": 41.0, "goalsAgainst": 6.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.723 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.5385681873068946, "adjustedSOG": 1.5385681873068946, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.5385681873068946, "adjustedSOG": 1.5385681873068946, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.11216223352209015, "goalHistoryGoals": 31.0, "goalHistoryShots": 291.0, "goalExpected": 0.17256924431437484, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.17256924431437484, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.1584999822974472, "goalProbability": 0.1584999822974472, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12855433307137243, "modelSOG": 1.5385681873068946, "historyGames": 159, "seasonGames": { "2024": 82, "2025": 67, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 31.0, "historyShots": 291.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.10652920962199312, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.11216223352209015, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 52.27208261408881, "btb": { "id": "8480849", "name": "Barrett Hayton", "score": 52.27208261408881, "components": { "Goal model": 58.604651162790695, "SOG model": 58.83720930232558, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 62.674418604651166, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 42.27900037299515, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Unconfirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": 3, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 183 } }, { "id": "8483565", "name": "Nick Blankenburg", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "EDM", "position": "D", "currentGP": 5, "currentSOG": 1.2, "priorSOG": 1.180327868852459, "currentTOI": 13.413333333333332, "currentFiveTOI": 12.486666666666666, "ppShare": 0.13348247576435496, "rate": 1.0622414870273371, "fifty": 1.1511583840220863, "inputs": { "Player": "Nick Blankenburg", "Player_ID": "8483565", "Team": "TOR", "Opponent": "EDM", "Position": "D", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.0328570203505163, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.0333334218757582, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 5, "Prior_GP": 61, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.766150560597971, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.6733223960625825, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 7.281553398058253, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 12.837551912568305, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 12.486666666666666, "Current_PP_Share": 0.13348247576435496, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.2465939137541464, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 179.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1341.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 1, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.3053872053872055, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.7207903046705205, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.5746937432992616, "Other_State_SOG": 0.16229508196721312, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9716922687020597, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.180327868852459, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/toronto-maple-leafs/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:42.074803+00:00", "priorGP": 61, "currentTotalSOG": 6.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.5966666666666667, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.20 SOG/game in 5 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 5 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.524, "currentIXG": 0.1048, "priorTOI": 16.796994535519126, "priorPPTOI": 1.3508196721311476, "deploymentChange": -3.3836612021857935, "ppTOIChange": -0.7541530054644809, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021289", "date": "20260413", "team": "COL", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 10.233333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020731", "date": "20260113", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 17.2 }, { "gameId": "2025020674", "date": "20260106", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 16.983333333333334 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 3, "h2hSOG": 1.3333333333333333, "opponentDefense": { "team": "EDM", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 239.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 26.555555555555557, "mostAllowedRank": 18, "fiveSogAllowed60": 25.09786377362711, "pkSogAllowed60": 57.79388917659244, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 40.111111111111114, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 74.0, "C": 64.0, "L": 57.0, "R": 44.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.111111111111111, "L": 6.333333333333333, "R": 4.888888888888889, "D": 8.222222222222221 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 28.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 24.5, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 26.555555555555557, "oppPosSogAllowed": 8.222222222222221, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8477465", "team": "EDM", "name": "Tristan Jarry", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 3, "savePct": 0.8732394366197183, "gaa": 2.974387221151198, "gsax": -2.739, "goalsAllowed": 9.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 6.261, "shotsAgainst": 71.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0280169850571896, "factor": 1.0280169850571896, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-23T18:50:20.460Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.07159846627428036, "goalHistoryGoals": 13.0, "goalHistoryShots": 162.0, "goalExpected": 0.08895466402839712, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.09144690552124805, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.08511295007242513, "goalProbability": 0.08739023059428977, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.22772805218646414, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 5, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.2424101891740027, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.766150560597971, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 12.486666666666666, "Current_PP_Share": 0.13348247576435496, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.3053872053872055, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.5746937432992616, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9913228889134689, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0841268017286898, "Position_Factor": 1.0175103897192914, "Input_GP": 5, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 179.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1341.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.6733223960625825, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 7.281553398058253, "Prior_5v5_Min": 13.656284153005464, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.2465939137541464, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0564712492976214, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.34640522875817, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0564712492976214, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0841268017286898, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.766150560597971, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 1.3333333333333333 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021289", "date": "20260413", "team": "COL", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 10.233333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020731", "date": "20260113", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 17.2 }, { "gameId": "2025020674", "date": "20260106", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 16.983333333333334 } ], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 93, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 17, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477465", "goalieName": "Tristan Jarry", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8483565", "goals": 0, "sog": 6, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 4, "recordedAttempts": 9, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020731", "date": "20260113", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2024020515", "date": "20241219", "season": 2024, "goals": 0, "sog": 4, "attempts": 5 }, { "gameId": "2022021013", "date": "20230307", "season": 2022, "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2022020081", "date": "20221022", "season": 2022, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477465", "goalieName": "Tristan Jarry", "opponent": "TOR", "games": 5, "availableGames": 13, "shotsAgainst": 102.0, "goalsAgainst": 16.0, "savePct": 0.8431372549019608, "gaa": 4.100811618966254, "gsax": -2.944, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020499", "date": "20251213", "goalieTeam": "EDM", "opponent": "TOR", "shotsAgainst": 28.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.854 }, { "gameId": "2025020396", "date": "20251129", "goalieTeam": "PIT", "opponent": "TOR", "shotsAgainst": 13.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 2107.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.626 }, { "gameId": "2025020199", "date": "20251103", "goalieTeam": "PIT", "opponent": "TOR", "shotsAgainst": 20.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3452.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.296 }, { "gameId": "2024020433", "date": "20241207", "goalieTeam": "PIT", "opponent": "TOR", "shotsAgainst": 27.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3571.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.846 }, { "gameId": "2023020466", "date": "20231216", "goalieTeam": "PIT", "opponent": "TOR", "shotsAgainst": 14.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 1316.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.434 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.2424101891740027, "adjustedSOG": 1.2424101891740027, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.2677654991571456, "adjustedSOG": 1.2424101891740027, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.07159846627428036, "goalHistoryGoals": 13.0, "goalHistoryShots": 162.0, "goalExpected": 0.0907700653350991, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.09331316889923269, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.08677233054187959, "goalProbability": 0.08909181249145752, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.23194819495779284 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05758798163861455, "modelSOG": 1.2424101891740027, "historyGames": 126, "seasonGames": { "2024": 60, "2025": 61, "2026": 5 }, "historyGoals": 13.0, "historyShots": 162.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.08024691358024691, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.07159846627428036, "goalieFactor": 1.0280169850571896, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8471214", "name": "Alex Ovechkin", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "position": "R", "currentGP": 9, "currentSOG": 1.4444444444444444, "priorSOG": 2.975609756097561, "currentTOI": 14.207407407407407, "currentFiveTOI": 9.894444444444444, "ppShare": 0.7258641239570918, "rate": 2.4480200606374822, "fifty": 2.0261022616222477, "inputs": { "Player": "Alex Ovechkin", "Player_ID": "8471214", "Team": "WSH", "Opponent": "BUF", "Position": "L", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 2.3517941869069325, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 2.0052002718757147, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 9, "Prior_GP": 82, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 6.064008983717013, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 8.23061630218688, "Current_PP_SOG60": 3.9408866995073892, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 13.760152890587673, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 10.606598915989158, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 9.894444444444444, "Current_PP_Share": 0.7258641239570918, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.9721590011797818, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1827.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2517.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 5, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.500555555555556, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 3.5993309490503913, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 3.266791815653556, "Other_State_SOG": 0.29661246612466124, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9496227273390297, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 2.975609756097561, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:42.097606+00:00", "priorGP": 82, "currentTotalSOG": 13.0, "currentPPTOI": 3.3833333333333333, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.44 SOG/game in 9 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 9 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.841, "currentIXG": 0.20455555555555555, "priorTOI": 17.448373983739838, "priorPPTOI": 4.254065040650406, "deploymentChange": -3.240966576332431, "ppTOIChange": -0.8707317073170731, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021213", "date": "20260404", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 9.0, "toi": 17.016666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025021028", "date": "20260312", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 14.05 }, { "gameId": "2025020186", "date": "20251101", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 9.0, "toi": 19.25 }, { "gameId": "2024021171", "date": "20250330", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 14.0, "toi": 16.366666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020637", "date": "20250106", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "away", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 16.7 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 5, "h2hSOG": 3.4, "opponentDefense": { "team": "BUF", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 257.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 25.7, "mostAllowedRank": 24, "fiveSogAllowed60": 21.645723550871505, "pkSogAllowed60": 62.21198156682028, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 40.1, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 61.0, "L": 55.0, "D": 65.0, "C": 76.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.6, "L": 5.5, "R": 6.1, "D": 6.5 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 30.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.25, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 25.7, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.1, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8480045", "team": "BUF", "name": "Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 8, "savePct": 0.8629441624365483, "gaa": 3.5349310833909153, "gsax": -3.6580000000000013, "goalsAllowed": 27.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 23.342, "shotsAgainst": 197.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.035448902624297, "factor": 1.035448902624297, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T15:43:35.500Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.15124179505112287, "goalHistoryGoals": 77.0, "goalHistoryShots": 494.0, "goalExpected": 0.2320236230275347, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.24024860584677438, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.2070726082601717, "goalProbability": 0.2135676749122425, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.649506665207078, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 9, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.5341237053494763, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 6.064008983717013, "Current_PP_SOG60": 3.9408866995073892, "Current_5v5_Min": 9.894444444444444, "Current_PP_Share": 0.7258641239570918, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.500555555555556, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 3.266791815653556, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.2222222222222222, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.922717716387106, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.1429256259066152, "Position_Factor": 1.0251297016861218, "Input_GP": 9, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1827.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2517.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 8.23061630218688, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 13.760152890587673, "Prior_5v5_Min": 12.268292682926829, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.9721590011797818, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0666666666666664, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.382352941176471, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0666666666666664, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.1429256259066152, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.350318471337579, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 4.621309370988446, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 4.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 3.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021213", "date": "20260404", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 9.0, "toi": 17.016666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025021028", "date": "20260312", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 14.05 }, { "gameId": "2025020186", "date": "20251101", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 9.0, "toi": 19.25 }, { "gameId": "2024021171", "date": "20250330", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 14.0, "toi": 16.366666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020637", "date": "20250106", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "away", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 16.7 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "NHL.com October 20 game-specific projected lineup", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 227, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 121, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. 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Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.13379203752113436, "goalHistoryGoals": 40.0, "goalHistoryShots": 295.0, "goalExpected": 0.2722593260382874, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.26971087165987995, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.23834328194231025, "goalProbability": 0.23639975910656255, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.19435228357476964 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1284785482084807, "modelSOG": 2.0349441647099527, "historyGames": 134, "seasonGames": { "2024": 68, "2025": 56, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 40.0, "historyShots": 295.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.13559322033898305, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.13379203752113436, "goalieFactor": 0.9906396066739361, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 65.84869406200832, "btb": { "id": "8471215", "name": "Evgeni Malkin", "score": 65.84869406200832, "components": { "Goal model": 81.16279069767442, "SOG model": 76.74418604651163, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 83.72093023255815, "Goalie": 81.91176470588235, "Team H2H": 56.296445069291025, "Goalie H2H": 57.71190365910144 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 3, "goalieH2HShots": 18, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 27 } }, { "id": "8479998", "name": "Mikey Anderson", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "NJD", "position": "D", "currentGP": 7, "currentSOG": 0.5714285714285714, "priorSOG": 0.7625, "currentTOI": 17.238095238095237, "currentFiveTOI": 14.714285714285714, "ppShare": 0.008316008316008316, "rate": 0.64559674689932, "fifty": 0.6029381494373732, "inputs": { "Player": "Mikey Anderson", "Player_ID": "8479998", "Team": "LAK", "Opponent": "NJD", "Position": "D", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 0.6330986665748591, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 0.6428559243452753, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 7, "Prior_GP": 80, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.3300970873786406, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 2.4955939372576665, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 15.619374999999998, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 14.714285714285714, "Current_PP_Share": 0.008316008316008316, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.01539758312191214, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 16.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1924.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 4, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.575661375661376, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.0477721045467073, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.03805123805123806, "Other_State_SOG": 0.022500000000000003, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9357862710703578, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 0.7625, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/los-angeles-kings/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:42.136480+00:00", "priorGP": 80, "currentTotalSOG": 4.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.03809523809523809, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.57 SOG/game in 7 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 7 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.2, "currentIXG": 0.028571428571428574, "priorTOI": 20.570208333333333, "priorPPTOI": 0.065625, "deploymentChange": -3.332113095238096, "ppTOIChange": -0.02752976190476191, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021050", "date": "20260314", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 20.583333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2025020191", "date": "20251101", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 15.95 }, { "gameId": "2024020602", "date": "20250101", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 25.866666666666667 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 1.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "NJD", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 234.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 26.0, "mostAllowedRank": 22, "fiveSogAllowed60": 24.374647357532442, "pkSogAllowed60": 52.512155591572125, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 37.111111111111114, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "L": 41.0, "D": 63.0, "C": 78.0, "R": 52.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 8.666666666666666, "L": 4.555555555555555, "R": 5.777777777777778, "D": 7.0 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 25.0, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 25.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 26.0, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.0, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8474596", "team": "NJD", "name": "Jake Allen", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 6, "savePct": 0.8834355828220859, "gaa": 3.1496062992125986, "gsax": -3.708, "goalsAllowed": 19.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 15.292, "shotsAgainst": 163.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0365218981504722, "factor": 1.0365218981504722, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T17:31:56.013Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.06330930135821289, "goalHistoryGoals": 10.0, "goalHistoryShots": 149.0, "goalExpected": 0.034661338533084424, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.03592723640874877, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.03406751501604078, "goalProbability": 0.035289513271132146, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.12219982550913666, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 7, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 0.5474920397078104, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.3300970873786406, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 14.714285714285714, "Current_PP_Share": 0.008316008316008316, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.575661375661376, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.03805123805123806, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9778442581785296, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0469775686735434, "Position_Factor": 0.9997771298284035, "Input_GP": 7, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 16.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1924.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 2.4955939372576665, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 17.73125, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.01539758312191214, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9776643566210901, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.34640522875817, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9776643566210901, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0469775686735434, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 2.3300970873786406, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021050", "date": "20260314", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 20.583333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2025020191", "date": "20251101", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 15.95 }, { "gameId": "2024020602", "date": "20250101", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 25.866666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020461", "date": "20241212", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 21.75 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 100, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8474596", "goalieName": "Jake Allen", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8479998", "goals": 0, "sog": 6, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 5, "recordedAttempts": 7, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021050", "date": "20260314", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2024020602", "date": "20250101", "season": 2024, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2022020982", "date": "20230302", "season": 2022, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2 }, { "gameId": "2022020439", "date": "20221210", "season": 2022, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2 }, { "gameId": "2021020125", "date": "20211030", "season": 2021, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8474596", "goalieName": "Jake Allen", "opponent": "LAK", "games": 5, "availableGames": 17, "shotsAgainst": 151.0, "goalsAgainst": 16.0, "savePct": 0.8940397350993378, "gaa": 3.2597623089983023, "gsax": 1.5839999999999996, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021050", "date": "20260314", "goalieTeam": "NJD", "opponent": "LAK", "shotsAgainst": 31.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.558 }, { "gameId": "2024020602", "date": "20250101", "goalieTeam": "NJD", "opponent": "LAK", "shotsAgainst": 23.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3431.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.828 }, { "gameId": "2023020309", "date": "20231125", "goalieTeam": "MTL", "opponent": "LAK", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.339 }, { "gameId": "2022020982", "date": "20230302", "goalieTeam": "MTL", "opponent": "LAK", "shotsAgainst": 33.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3509.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.849 }, { "gameId": "2022020439", "date": "20221210", "goalieTeam": "MTL", "opponent": "LAK", "shotsAgainst": 34.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3530.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.01 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.5474920397078104, "adjustedSOG": 0.5474920397078104, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.5586653466406228, "adjustedSOG": 0.5474920397078104, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.06330930135821289, "goalHistoryGoals": 10.0, "goalHistoryShots": 149.0, "goalExpected": 0.03536871278886166, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.03536871278886166, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.03475054917986442, "goalProbability": 0.03475054917986442, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05764016038195008, "modelSOG": 0.5474920397078104, "historyGames": 164, "seasonGames": { "2024": 77, "2025": 80, "2026": 7 }, "historyGoals": 10.0, "historyShots": 149.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.06711409395973154, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.06330930135821289, "goalieFactor": 1.0365218981504722, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 36.318270978460134, "btb": { "id": "8479998", "name": "Mikey Anderson", "score": 36.318270978460134, "components": { "Goal model": 8.837209302325581, "SOG model": 8.13953488372093, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 12.790697674418604, "Goalie": 55.44117647058823, "Team H2H": 50.9697873927639, "Goalie H2H": 46.75196850393701 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": 6, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 394 } }, { "id": "8476539", "name": "Jonathan Marchessault", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "PIT", "position": "R", "currentGP": 8, "currentSOG": 2.0, "priorSOG": 2.129032258064516, "currentTOI": 16.666666666666668, "currentFiveTOI": 12.925, "ppShare": 0.5736463460810299, "rate": 2.1521253122163406, "fifty": 2.1213712461457606, "inputs": { "Player": "Jonathan Marchessault", "Player_ID": "8476539", "Team": "NSH", "Opponent": "PIT", "Position": "R", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.8162158981308536, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.68380024609205, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 8, "Prior_GP": 62, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 6.382978723404255, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.840363400389357, "Current_PP_SOG60": 11.881188118811881, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 14.177521963041503, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 13.024274193548386, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 12.925, "Current_PP_Share": 0.5736463460810299, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.6592665214847011, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1515.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2641.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 5, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.906041666666667, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 2.9403497202159357, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 2.8143328758046198, "Other_State_SOG": 0.14516129032258066, "Environment_Proxy": 1.0227478110844896, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 2.129032258064516, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/nashville-predators/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:42.154720+00:00", "priorGP": 62, "currentTotalSOG": 16.0, "currentPPTOI": 3.15625, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.00 SOG/game in 8 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 8 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.6340000000000001, "currentIXG": 0.20425000000000001, "priorTOI": 16.70725806451613, "priorPPTOI": 2.6620967741935484, "deploymentChange": -0.040591397849460975, "ppTOIChange": 0.4941532258064516, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020296", "date": "20251116", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "PIT", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 19.5 }, { "gameId": "2025020281", "date": "20251114", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "PIT", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 18.516666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020830", "date": "20250201", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "PIT", "venue": "away", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 10.0, "toi": 16.266666666666666 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 3.3333333333333335, "opponentDefense": { "team": "PIT", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 279.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.9, "mostAllowedRank": 12, "fiveSogAllowed60": 26.122338261223383, "pkSogAllowed60": 50.11600928074246, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 42.4, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 55.0, "L": 47.0, "D": 70.0, "C": 107.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.7, "L": 4.7, "R": 5.5, "D": 7.0 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 25.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 3, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 28.333333333333332, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.9, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.5, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8481668", "team": "PIT", "name": "Arturs Silovs", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 6, "savePct": 0.8662420382165605, "gaa": 3.5131744040150563, "gsax": -1.0760000000000005, "goalsAllowed": 21.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 19.924, "shotsAgainst": 157.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0136052553954562, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Likely starter per Daily Faceoff; no Model Goal adjustment until confirmed.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T15:01:09.604Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.10541651080364463, "goalHistoryGoals": 35.0, "goalHistoryShots": 354.0, "goalExpected": 0.2026085747451659, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.2026085747451659, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.1834021841150477, "goalProbability": 0.1834021841150477, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 8, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.9219814163889115, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 6.382978723404255, "Current_PP_SOG60": 11.881188118811881, "Current_5v5_Min": 12.925, "Current_PP_Share": 0.5736463460810299, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.906041666666667, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 2.8143328758046198, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.011083778612368, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0249142728068137, "Position_Factor": 0.9996890729968466, "Input_GP": 8, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1515.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2641.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.840363400389357, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 14.177521963041503, "Prior_5v5_Min": 13.255913978494624, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.6592665214847011, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.010928961748634, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.382352941176471, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.010928961748634, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0249142728068137, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 6.382978723404255, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 11.881188118811881, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 3.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020296", "date": "20251116", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "PIT", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 19.5 }, { "gameId": "2025020281", "date": "20251114", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "PIT", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 18.516666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020830", "date": "20250201", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "PIT", "venue": "away", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 10.0, "toi": 16.266666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020515", "date": "20241219", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "PIT", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 18.633333333333333 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 125, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 59, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481668", "goalieName": "Arturs Silovs", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8476539", "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 2, "recordedAttempts": 8, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020281", "date": "20251114", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 4 }, { "gameId": "2023021238", "date": "20240408", "season": 2023, "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 4 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481668", "goalieName": "Arturs Silovs", "opponent": "NSH", "games": 2, "availableGames": 2, "shotsAgainst": 62.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "savePct": 0.9193548387096774, "gaa": 2.397123451857771, "gsax": 1.6559999999999997, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020281", "date": "20251114", "goalieTeam": "PIT", "opponent": "NSH", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3644.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.231 }, { "gameId": "2022021010", "date": "20230306", "goalieTeam": "VAN", "opponent": "NSH", "shotsAgainst": 32.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3865.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.425 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.9219814163889115, "adjustedSOG": 1.9219814163889115, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.9612055269274609, "adjustedSOG": 1.9219814163889115, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.10541651080364463, "goalHistoryGoals": 35.0, "goalHistoryShots": 354.0, "goalExpected": 0.20674344361751623, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.20674344361751623, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.1867717378728963, "goalProbability": 0.1867717378728963, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12859095904854664, "modelSOG": 1.9219814163889115, "historyGames": 148, "seasonGames": { "2024": 78, "2025": 62, "2026": 8 }, "historyGoals": 35.0, "historyShots": 354.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.09887005649717515, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.10541651080364463, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 57.29043744524345, "btb": { "id": "8476539", "name": "Jonathan Marchessault", "score": 57.29043744524345, "components": { "Goal model": 67.90697674418605, "SOG model": 73.48837209302326, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 64.88372093023256, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 56.975009324878776, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Likely", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": 2, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 119 } }, { "id": "8476925", "name": "Colton Sissons", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "EDM", "position": "C", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 1.1818181818181819, "priorSOG": 1.121212121212121, "currentTOI": 15.053030303030305, "currentFiveTOI": 11.653030303030304, "ppShare": 0.011134517002708396, "rate": 1.1450041372482342, "fifty": 1.1531775519514131, "inputs": { "Player": "Colton Sissons", "Player_ID": "8476925", "Team": "TOR", "Opponent": "EDM", "Position": "C", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.009371571700481, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.0902069971851476, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 11, "Prior_GP": 66, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.616954882329996, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.8525222623929345, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 3.8054968287526427, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 11.279318181818184, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 11.653030303030304, "Current_PP_Share": 0.011134517002708396, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.10463032202162635, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 37.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3323.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 6, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.3053872053872055, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.1686990998473749, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.047938407041627024, "Other_State_SOG": 0.07727272727272728, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9716922687020597, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.121212121212121, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/toronto-maple-leafs/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:42.174596+00:00", "priorGP": 66, "currentTotalSOG": 13.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.05606060606060606, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.18 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.1420000000000001, "currentIXG": 0.10381818181818182, "priorTOI": 12.497222222222224, "priorPPTOI": 0.4777777777777778, "deploymentChange": 2.555808080808081, "ppTOIChange": -0.4217171717171717, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021218", "date": "20260404", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 13.4 }, { "gameId": "2025021148", "date": "20260326", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 13.516666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025021007", "date": "20260308", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 15.716666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020570", "date": "20251221", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 11.733333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020264", "date": "20241114", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 14.883333333333333 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 7, "h2hSOG": 0.6, "opponentDefense": { "team": "EDM", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 239.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 26.555555555555557, "mostAllowedRank": 18, "fiveSogAllowed60": 25.09786377362711, "pkSogAllowed60": 57.79388917659244, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 40.111111111111114, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 74.0, "C": 64.0, "L": 57.0, "R": 44.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.111111111111111, "L": 6.333333333333333, "R": 4.888888888888889, "D": 8.222222222222221 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 28.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 24.5, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 26.555555555555557, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.111111111111111, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8477465", "team": "EDM", "name": "Tristan Jarry", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 3, "savePct": 0.8732394366197183, "gaa": 2.974387221151198, "gsax": -2.739, "goalsAllowed": 9.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 6.261, "shotsAgainst": 71.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0280169850571896, "factor": 1.0280169850571896, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-23T18:50:20.460Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.10432766356951223, "goalHistoryGoals": 15.0, "goalHistoryShots": 167.0, "goalExpected": 0.10780516017133553, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.11082553573294376, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.10219749292324527, "goalProbability": 0.10490510261731018, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.27076096940649025, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.0333324497342575, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.616954882329996, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 11.653030303030304, "Current_PP_Share": 0.011134517002708396, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.3053872053872055, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.047938407041627024, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.09090909090909091, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9913228889134689, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0841268017286898, "Position_Factor": 0.9730886823103262, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 37.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3323.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.8525222623929345, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 3.8054968287526427, "Prior_5v5_Min": 10.407323232323233, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.10463032202162635, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.8832191281527919, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.437908496732026, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.8832191281527919, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0841268017286898, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.616954882329996, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 0.3333333333333333 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 4, "sogPerGame": 0.75 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021218", "date": "20260404", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 13.4 }, { "gameId": "2025021148", "date": "20260326", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 13.516666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025021007", "date": "20260308", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 15.716666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020570", "date": "20251221", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 11.733333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020264", "date": "20241114", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 14.883333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020166", "date": "20241031", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 13.833333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020069", "date": "20241017", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 14.783333333333333 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 104, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477465", "goalieName": "Tristan Jarry", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8476925", "goals": 0, "sog": 4, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 3, "recordedAttempts": 6, "log": [ { "gameId": "2023020331", "date": "20231128", "season": 2023, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 3 }, { "gameId": "2022021192", "date": "20230330", "season": 2022, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2 }, { "gameId": "2022020963", "date": "20230228", "season": 2022, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477465", "goalieName": "Tristan Jarry", "opponent": "TOR", "games": 5, "availableGames": 13, "shotsAgainst": 102.0, "goalsAgainst": 16.0, "savePct": 0.8431372549019608, "gaa": 4.100811618966254, "gsax": -2.944, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020499", "date": "20251213", "goalieTeam": "EDM", "opponent": "TOR", "shotsAgainst": 28.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.854 }, { "gameId": "2025020396", "date": "20251129", "goalieTeam": "PIT", "opponent": "TOR", "shotsAgainst": 13.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 2107.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.626 }, { "gameId": "2025020199", "date": "20251103", "goalieTeam": "PIT", "opponent": "TOR", "shotsAgainst": 20.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3452.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.296 }, { "gameId": "2024020433", "date": "20241207", "goalieTeam": "PIT", "opponent": "TOR", "shotsAgainst": 27.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3571.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.846 }, { "gameId": "2023020466", "date": "20231216", "goalieTeam": "PIT", "opponent": "TOR", "shotsAgainst": 14.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 1316.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.434 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.0333324497342575, "adjustedSOG": 1.0333324497342575, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.054420867075773, "adjustedSOG": 1.0333324497342575, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.10432766356951223, "goalHistoryGoals": 15.0, "goalHistoryShots": 167.0, "goalExpected": 0.11000526548095463, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.11308728136014672, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.10417058168863105, "goalProbability": 0.10692729188648746, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.27567101978564074 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12855486173059769, "modelSOG": 1.0333324497342575, "historyGames": 149, "seasonGames": { "2024": 72, "2025": 66, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 15.0, "historyShots": 167.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.08982035928143713, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.10432766356951223, "goalieFactor": 1.0280169850571896, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 48.094188419152196, "btb": { "id": "8476925", "name": "Colton Sissons", "score": 48.094188419152196, "components": { "Goal model": 39.06976744186046, "SOG model": 31.627906976744185, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 24.88372093023256, "Goalie": 92.20588235294117, "Team H2H": 47.58101674090001, "Goalie H2H": 48.52726742490522 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 7, "goalieH2HShots": 4, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 228 } }, { "id": "8475314", "name": "Anders Lee", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "TBL", "position": "L", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 1.8, "priorSOG": 2.426829268292683, "currentTOI": 13.371666666666666, "currentFiveTOI": 11.959999999999999, "ppShare": 0.22775457757789913, "rate": 2.0281951406778003, "fifty": 1.9188968857671755, "inputs": { "Player": "Anders Lee", "Player_ID": "8475314", "Team": "UTA", "Opponent": "TBL", "Position": "L", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 2.5365620699890243, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 2.4221557029664202, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 10, "Prior_GP": 82, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 7.525083612040134, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 8.01883066618221, "Current_PP_SOG60": 10.155148095909732, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 14.280230326295586, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 12.23181707317073, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 11.959999999999999, "Current_PP_Share": 0.22775457757789913, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.3465508984160208, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 709.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3113.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 6, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.821018518518519, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 1.2698248149881501, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 1.0980090361804145, "Other_State_SOG": 0.2953658536585366, "Environment_Proxy": 0.8844868901771036, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 2.426829268292683, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/utah-mammoth/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:42.191852+00:00", "priorGP": 82, "currentTotalSOG": 18.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.1816666666666666, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.80 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 4.023, "currentIXG": 0.4023, "priorTOI": 15.63780487804878, "priorPPTOI": 1.5884146341463414, "deploymentChange": -2.2661382113821134, "ppTOIChange": -0.4067479674796748, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020498", "date": "20251213", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 12.816666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020446", "date": "20251206", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 13.75 }, { "gameId": "2025020414", "date": "20251202", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 15.883333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024021186", "date": "20250401", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 14.633333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024021160", "date": "20250329", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "away", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 10.0, "toi": 15.15 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 6, "h2hSOG": 1.6, "opponentDefense": { "team": "TBL", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 218.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 24.22222222222222, "mostAllowedRank": 29, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.310572168589594, "pkSogAllowed60": 47.9002079002079, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 36.333333333333336, "positionUnassignedSOG": 1.0, "positionTotals": { "L": 36.0, "R": 49.0, "D": 66.0, "C": 66.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.333333333333333, "L": 4.0, "R": 5.444444444444445, "D": 7.333333333333333 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 24.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.25, "positionSourceDifference": 1.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 24.22222222222222, "oppPosSogAllowed": 4.0, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8483710", "team": "TBL", "name": "Dennis Hildeby", "status": "Unconfirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 2, "savePct": 0.92, "gaa": 2.0089285714285716, "gsax": 0.8719999999999999, "goalsAllowed": 4.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.872, "shotsAgainst": 50.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9926942170737747, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Starter remains unconfirmed per Daily Faceoff; no Model Goal adjustment.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": null }, "goalShootingPct": 0.1140777427058999, "goalHistoryGoals": 50.0, "goalHistoryShots": 451.0, "goalExpected": 0.1867874032469073, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.1867874032469073, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.17037990782369744, "goalProbability": 0.17037990782369744, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.6373693835129415, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 7.525083612040134, "Current_PP_SOG60": 10.155148095909732, "Current_5v5_Min": 11.959999999999999, "Current_PP_Share": 0.22775457757789913, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.821018518518519, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.0980090361804145, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.1, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9588832837562793, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0032616490671127, "Position_Factor": 0.9867937882386387, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 709.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3113.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 8.01883066618221, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 14.280230326295586, "Prior_5v5_Min": 12.866056910569105, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.3465508984160208, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9006149977914444, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.062091503267974, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9006149977914444, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0032616490671127, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 7.525083612040134, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 10.155148095909732, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 2.3333333333333335 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 1.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020498", "date": "20251213", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 12.816666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020446", "date": "20251206", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 13.75 }, { "gameId": "2025020414", "date": "20251202", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 15.883333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024021186", "date": "20250401", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 14.633333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024021160", "date": "20250329", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "away", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 10.0, "toi": 15.15 }, { "gameId": "2024020829", "date": "20250201", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 19.333333333333332 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 238, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. 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Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8483710", "goalieName": "Dennis Hildeby", "starterStatus": "Unconfirmed", "shooterId": "8475314", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8483710", "goalieName": "Dennis Hildeby", "opponent": "UTA", "games": 1, "availableGames": 1, "shotsAgainst": 41.0, "goalsAgainst": 6.0, "savePct": 0.8536585365853658, "gaa": 6.0, "gsax": -1.2770000000000001, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020733", "date": "20260113", "goalieTeam": "TOR", "opponent": "UTA", "shotsAgainst": 41.0, "goalsAgainst": 6.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.723 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.6373693835129415, "adjustedSOG": 1.6373693835129415, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.6373693835129415, "adjustedSOG": 1.6373693835129415, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.1140777427058999, "goalHistoryGoals": 50.0, "goalHistoryShots": 451.0, "goalExpected": 0.1867874032469073, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.1867874032469073, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.17037990782369744, "goalProbability": 0.17037990782369744, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12856836230950847, "modelSOG": 1.6373693835129415, "historyGames": 174, "seasonGames": { "2024": 82, "2025": 82, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 50.0, "historyShots": 451.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.11086474501108648, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.1140777427058999, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 55.45489632035947, "btb": { "id": "8475314", "name": "Anders Lee", "score": 55.45489632035947, "components": { "Goal model": 63.72093023255814, "SOG model": 62.325581395348834, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 93.48837209302326, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 34.97062663185379, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Unconfirmed", "h2hGames": 6, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 142 } }, { "id": "8480188", "name": "Fabian Zetterlund", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "NYR", "position": "R", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 1.6, "priorSOG": 1.6097560975609757, "currentTOI": 12.975, "currentFiveTOI": 10.868333333333334, "ppShare": 0.27664558444600607, "rate": 1.5611780058339022, "fifty": 1.5483229308040432, "inputs": { "Player": "Fabian Zetterlund", "Player_ID": "8480188", "Team": "OTT", "Opponent": "NYR", "Position": "L", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.617414938398198, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.4760590806035925, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 10, "Prior_GP": 82, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 7.17681337218218, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.950176234081368, "Current_PP_SOG60": 9.144792548687553, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 11.596277738010022, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 11.050455284552847, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 10.868333333333334, "Current_PP_Share": 0.27664558444600607, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.22987749191644105, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1181.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 4269.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 5, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 6.001439393939394, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 1.5760689467877478, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 1.6602717086536483, "Other_State_SOG": 0.054878048780487805, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9482920490252438, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.6097560975609757, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/ottawa-senators/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:42.210057+00:00", "priorGP": 82, "currentTotalSOG": 16.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.9683333333333333, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.60 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.462, "currentIXG": 0.1462, "priorTOI": 12.909756097560974, "priorPPTOI": 1.1357723577235772, "deploymentChange": 0.06524390243902545, "ppTOIChange": 0.8325609756097561, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021119", "date": "20260323", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "NYR", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 12.116666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020737", "date": "20260114", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "NYR", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 12.483333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020427", "date": "20251204", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "NYR", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 14.6 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 1.3333333333333333, "opponentDefense": { "team": "NYR", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 283.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 25.727272727272727, "mostAllowedRank": 23, "fiveSogAllowed60": 24.897512126427788, "pkSogAllowed60": 40.17358958462492, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 39.81818181818182, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 106.0, "D": 82.0, "R": 57.0, "L": 38.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.636363636363637, "L": 3.4545454545454546, "R": 5.181818181818182, "D": 7.454545454545454 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 27.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.4, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 25.727272727272727, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.181818181818182, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8482193", "team": "NYR", "name": "Dylan Garand", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.9285714285714286, "gaa": 1.846928781306842, "gsax": 4.030999999999999, "goalsAllowed": 11.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 15.030999999999999, "shotsAgainst": 154.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9674872583533348, "factor": 0.9674872583533348, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T15:37:42.216Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.11621080950531182, "goalHistoryGoals": 37.0, "goalHistoryShots": 329.0, "goalExpected": 0.1751736980712023, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.16947832088252238, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.16068877863325343, "goalProbability": 0.1558949462653707, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.4793832367882722, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.5073786923685046, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 7.17681337218218, "Current_PP_SOG60": 9.144792548687553, "Current_5v5_Min": 10.868333333333334, "Current_PP_Share": 0.27664558444600607, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 6.001439393939394, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.6602717086536483, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9864268368728425, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9197863814450764, "Position_Factor": 1.002510875172058, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1181.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 4269.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.950176234081368, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 11.596277738010022, "Prior_5v5_Min": 11.475406504065042, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.22987749191644105, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9804839968774395, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.382352941176471, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9804839968774395, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9197863814450764, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 7.17681337218218, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 9.144792548687553, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 4.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 1.3333333333333333 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021119", "date": "20260323", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "NYR", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 12.116666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020737", "date": "20260114", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "NYR", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 12.483333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020427", "date": "20251204", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "NYR", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 14.6 }, { "gameId": "2024020261", "date": "20241114", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "NYR", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 19.416666666666668 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "lineupReviewedAt": "2026-10-22T12:25:32.333917+00:00", "lineupReviewNote": "Reported forward, defense and PP chart reviewed October22; matches existing assignments. Final dressing unconfirmed. Dated statistical inputs now include October21.", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 175, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 27, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482193", "goalieName": "Dylan Garand", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8480188", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482193", "goalieName": "Dylan Garand", "opponent": "OTT", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "No appearance found in the supplied historical files; this does not establish that the goalie has never faced the team." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.5073786923685046, "adjustedSOG": 1.5073786923685046, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.5073786923685046, "adjustedSOG": 1.5073786923685046, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.11621080950531182, "goalHistoryGoals": 37.0, "goalHistoryShots": 329.0, "goalExpected": 0.1751736980712023, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.16947832088252238, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.16068877863325343, "goalProbability": 0.1558949462653707, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.4793832367882722 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1285443727777877, "modelSOG": 1.5073786923685046, "historyGames": 176, "seasonGames": { "2024": 84, "2025": 82, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 37.0, "historyShots": 329.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.11246200607902736, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.11621080950531182, "goalieFactor": 0.9674872583533348, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 51.75070032263315, "btb": { "id": "8480188", "name": "Fabian Zetterlund", "score": 51.75070032263315, "components": { "Goal model": 59.53488372093023, "SOG model": 57.906976744186046, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 45.58139534883721, "Goalie": 39.55882352941177, "Team H2H": 56.2290190227527, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 189 } }, { "id": "8480870", "name": "Bo Groulx", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "EDM", "position": "C", "currentGP": 6, "currentSOG": 0.5, "priorSOG": 1.1538461538461537, "currentTOI": 8.322222222222221, "currentFiveTOI": 7.766666666666667, "ppShare": 0.02546419098143236, "rate": 0.9094187056183649, "fifty": 0.797851583551727, "inputs": { "Player": "Bo Groulx", "Player_ID": "8480870", "Team": "TOR", "Opponent": "EDM", "Position": "C", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 0.7992701271895644, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 0.6755145170835147, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 6, "Prior_GP": 13, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.8626609442060085, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.615877764718453, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 9.03628205128205, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 7.766666666666667, "Current_PP_Share": 0.02546419098143236, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.09165152587268958, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 48.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1885.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 5, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.3053872053872055, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.19512183348684425, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.10963320204699516, "Other_State_SOG": 0.2076923076923077, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9716922687020597, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.1538461538461537, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/toronto-maple-leafs/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:42.228726+00:00", "priorGP": 13, "currentTotalSOG": 3.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.13333333333333333, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.50 SOG/game in 6 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 6 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.061, "currentIXG": 0.010166666666666666, "priorTOI": 15.692307692307692, "priorPPTOI": 0.34102564102564104, "deploymentChange": -7.3700854700854705, "ppTOIChange": -0.2076923076923077, "h2hLog": [], "h2hGames": 0, "h2hAvailableGames": 0, "h2hSOG": null, "opponentDefense": { "team": "EDM", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 239.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 26.555555555555557, "mostAllowedRank": 18, "fiveSogAllowed60": 25.09786377362711, "pkSogAllowed60": 57.79388917659244, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 40.111111111111114, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 74.0, "C": 64.0, "L": 57.0, "R": 44.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.111111111111111, "L": 6.333333333333333, "R": 4.888888888888889, "D": 8.222222222222221 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 28.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 24.5, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 26.555555555555557, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.111111111111111, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8477465", "team": "EDM", "name": "Tristan Jarry", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 3, "savePct": 0.8732394366197183, "gaa": 2.974387221151198, "gsax": -2.739, "goalsAllowed": 9.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 6.261, "shotsAgainst": 71.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0280169850571896, "factor": 1.0280169850571896, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-23T18:50:20.460Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.13431451052147836, "goalHistoryGoals": 3.0, "goalHistoryShots": 18.0, "goalExpected": 0.05812828099171407, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.05975686017165904, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.05647109715026378, "goalProbability": 0.058006458109326045, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.15353609590622666, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 6, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 0.43277737279486805, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.8626609442060085, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 7.766666666666667, "Current_PP_Share": 0.02546419098143236, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.3053872053872055, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.10963320204699516, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9913228889134689, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0841268017286898, "Position_Factor": 0.9730886823103262, "Input_GP": 6, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 48.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1885.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.615877764718453, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 11.998717948717948, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.09165152587268958, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.8832191281527919, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.437908496732026, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.8832191281527919, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0841268017286898, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 3.8626609442060085, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 18, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477465", "goalieName": "Tristan Jarry", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8480870", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477465", "goalieName": "Tristan Jarry", "opponent": "TOR", "games": 5, "availableGames": 13, "shotsAgainst": 102.0, "goalsAgainst": 16.0, "savePct": 0.8431372549019608, "gaa": 4.100811618966254, "gsax": -2.944, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020499", "date": "20251213", "goalieTeam": "EDM", "opponent": "TOR", "shotsAgainst": 28.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.854 }, { "gameId": "2025020396", "date": "20251129", "goalieTeam": "PIT", "opponent": "TOR", "shotsAgainst": 13.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 2107.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.626 }, { "gameId": "2025020199", "date": "20251103", "goalieTeam": "PIT", "opponent": "TOR", "shotsAgainst": 20.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3452.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.296 }, { "gameId": "2024020433", "date": "20241207", "goalieTeam": "PIT", "opponent": "TOR", "shotsAgainst": 27.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3571.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.846 }, { "gameId": "2023020466", "date": "20231216", "goalieTeam": "PIT", "opponent": "TOR", "shotsAgainst": 14.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 1316.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.434 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.43277737279486805, "adjustedSOG": 0.43277737279486805, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.44160956407639596, "adjustedSOG": 0.43277737279486805, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.13431451052147836, "goalHistoryGoals": 3.0, "goalHistoryShots": 18.0, "goalExpected": 0.05931457244052456, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.060976387930264324, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.057589733773702675, "goalProbability": 0.05915454517777315, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.15648114040704778 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12849112241534447, "modelSOG": 0.43277737279486805, "historyGames": 19, "seasonGames": { "2025": 13, "2026": 6 }, "historyGoals": 3.0, "historyShots": 18.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.16666666666666666, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.13431451052147836, "goalieFactor": 1.0280169850571896, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8475279", "name": "Ben Chiarot", "team": "DET", "opponent": "CGY", "position": "D", "currentGP": 9, "currentSOG": 0.7777777777777778, "priorSOG": 1.2560975609756098, "currentTOI": 19.342592592592595, "currentFiveTOI": 16.462962962962962, "ppShare": 0.02857142857142857, "rate": 1.2511664805670393, "fifty": 1.1114058974906944, "inputs": { "Player": "Ben Chiarot", "Player_ID": "8475279", "Team": "DET", "Opponent": "CGY", "Position": "D", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.122107816739989, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.0770383001696255, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 9, "Prior_GP": 82, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.8346456692913384, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.902853374761101, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 16.97974480578139, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 16.462962962962962, "Current_PP_Share": 0.02857142857142857, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.02063880555789991, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 90.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3150.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 5, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.430208333333333, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.14222607084583297, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.1551488095238095, "Other_State_SOG": 0.06585365853658538, "Environment_Proxy": 1.096640755468006, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.2560975609756098, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:42.248906+00:00", "priorGP": 82, "currentTotalSOG": 7.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.16666666666666666, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.78 SOG/game in 9 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 9 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.208, "currentIXG": 0.02311111111111111, "priorTOI": 20.836585365853658, "priorPPTOI": 0.10934959349593495, "deploymentChange": -1.4939927732610627, "ppTOIChange": 0.0573170731707317, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021063", "date": "20260316", "team": "DET", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 20.1 }, { "gameId": "2025020477", "date": "20251210", "team": "DET", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 24.416666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2024020834", "date": "20250201", "team": "DET", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 23.083333333333332 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 0.6666666666666666, "opponentDefense": { "team": "CGY", "games": 8, "sogAllowedTotal": 237.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 29.625, "mostAllowedRank": 6, "fiveSogAllowed60": 29.8086265894977, "pkSogAllowed60": 38.789888106092, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.5, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 59.0, "C": 89.0, "R": 48.0, "L": 41.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 11.125, "L": 5.125, "R": 6.0, "D": 7.375 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 30.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.5, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 29.625, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.375, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8482445", "team": "CGY", "name": "Devin Cooley", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 3, "savePct": 0.8681318681318682, "gaa": 4.010025062656641, "gsax": -2.561, "goalsAllowed": 12.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 9.439, "shotsAgainst": 91.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0263021756310153, "factor": 1.0263021756310153, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T16:24:22.507Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.04631882122870593, "goalHistoryGoals": 9.0, "goalHistoryShots": 219.0, "goalExpected": 0.03536631053071798, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.03629652144171795, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.03474823039872535, "goalProbability": 0.035645700643648914, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0897470244923565, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 9, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 0.763540815429902, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.8346456692913384, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 16.462962962962962, "Current_PP_Share": 0.02857142857142857, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.430208333333333, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.1551488095238095, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0746225056341803, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9180727421999328, "Position_Factor": 0.9914347993653367, "Input_GP": 9, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 90.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3150.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.902853374761101, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 18.18556910569106, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.02063880555789991, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0017299327797549, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.34640522875817, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0017299327797549, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9180727421999328, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 2.8346456692913384, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021063", "date": "20260316", "team": "DET", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 20.1 }, { "gameId": "2025020477", "date": "20251210", "team": "DET", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 24.416666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2024020834", "date": "20250201", "team": "DET", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 23.083333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2024020350", "date": "20241127", "team": "DET", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 23.233333333333334 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Reviewed October22 projected lineup and coach reports", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 153, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482445", "goalieName": "Devin Cooley", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8475279", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482445", "goalieName": "Devin Cooley", "opponent": "DET", "games": 1, "availableGames": 1, "shotsAgainst": 29.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "savePct": 0.8620689655172413, "gaa": 4.1248925809223715, "gsax": -1.0219999999999998, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020477", "date": "20251210", "goalieTeam": "CGY", "opponent": "DET", "shotsAgainst": 29.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3491.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.978 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.763540815429902, "adjustedSOG": 0.763540815429902, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.7791232810509204, "adjustedSOG": 0.763540815429902, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.04631882122870593, "goalHistoryGoals": 9.0, "goalHistoryShots": 219.0, "goalExpected": 0.03608807197012039, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.03608807197012039, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.035444660546892236, "goalProbability": 0.035444660546892236, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.057757039719571926, "modelSOG": 0.763540815429902, "historyGames": 172, "seasonGames": { "2024": 81, "2025": 82, "2026": 9 }, "historyGoals": 9.0, "historyShots": 219.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.0410958904109589, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.04631882122870593, "goalieFactor": 1.0263021756310153, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 36.33861058540849, "btb": { "id": "8475279", "name": "Ben Chiarot", "score": 36.33861058540849, "components": { "Goal model": 9.069767441860465, "SOG model": 16.511627906976745, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 3.255813953488372, "Goalie": 71.32352941176471, "Team H2H": 41.607609101081685, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 393 } }, { "id": "8477953", "name": "Kasperi Kapanen", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "TOR", "position": "R", "currentGP": 9, "currentSOG": 1.3333333333333333, "priorSOG": 1.5853658536585367, "currentTOI": 17.742592592592594, "currentFiveTOI": 13.251851851851852, "ppShare": 0.49072246348203713, "rate": 1.841148518498126, "fifty": 1.696487324562746, "inputs": { "Player": "Kasperi Kapanen", "Player_ID": "8477953", "Team": "EDM", "Opponent": "TOR", "Position": "R", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.7539145640789024, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.7803211053845214, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 9, "Prior_GP": 41, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.5215204024594744, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.6749072929542645, "Current_PP_SOG60": 8.688656476267095, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 5.607476635514018, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 13.222637759710931, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 13.251851851851852, "Current_PP_Share": 0.49072246348203713, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.06407889089620618, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1243.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2533.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 5, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.365824915824916, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 1.9463424077196152, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 2.6331308213068976, "Other_State_SOG": 0.11002710027100272, "Environment_Proxy": 1.1073475417853031, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.5853658536585367, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:42.266758+00:00", "priorGP": 41, "currentTotalSOG": 12.0, "currentPPTOI": 2.301851851851852, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.33 SOG/game in 9 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 9 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 2.008, "currentIXG": 0.22311111111111112, "priorTOI": 14.590650406504066, "priorPPTOI": 0.26097560975609757, "deploymentChange": 3.1519421860885277, "ppTOIChange": 2.040876242095754, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020891", "date": "20260203", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "TOR", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 15.05 }, { "gameId": "2024020833", "date": "20250201", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "TOR", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 12.016666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020110", "date": "20241024", "team": "STL", "opponent": "TOR", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 8.95 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 3, "h2hSOG": 1.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "TOR", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 332.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 30.181818181818183, "mostAllowedRank": 5, "fiveSogAllowed60": 28.565965583173995, "pkSogAllowed60": 43.340857787810386, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.0, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 130.0, "D": 98.0, "R": 49.0, "L": 55.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 11.818181818181818, "L": 5.0, "R": 4.454545454545454, "D": 8.909090909090908 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 30.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 35.25, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 30.181818181818183, "oppPosSogAllowed": 4.454545454545454, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8476932", "team": "TOR", "name": "Anthony Stolarz", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 4, "savePct": 0.8974358974358975, "gaa": 2.9929333518082304, "gsax": 0.46399999999999864, "goalsAllowed": 12.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 12.463999999999999, "shotsAgainst": 117.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9986972168772468, "factor": 0.9986972168772468, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T20:54:34.227Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.12284341865480208, "goalHistoryGoals": 17.0, "goalHistoryShots": 143.0, "goalExpected": 0.15869534784960848, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.15848860222877056, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.14674373426726542, "goalProbability": 0.1465673090339289, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.01764252333365246, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 9, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.2918506305620867, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.5215204024594744, "Current_PP_SOG60": 8.688656476267095, "Current_5v5_Min": 13.251851851851852, "Current_PP_Share": 0.49072246348203713, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.365824915824916, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 2.6331308213068976, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.2222222222222222, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0610638532936316, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9495764141752431, "Position_Factor": 0.9668459160608084, "Input_GP": 9, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1243.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2533.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.6749072929542645, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 5.607476635514018, "Prior_5v5_Min": 13.154471544715449, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.06407889089620618, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9097059588862867, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.382352941176471, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9097059588862867, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9495764141752431, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 3.5215204024594744, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 8.688656476267095, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 3.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020891", "date": "20260203", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "TOR", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 15.05 }, { "gameId": "2024020833", "date": "20250201", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "TOR", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 12.016666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020110", "date": "20241024", "team": "STL", "opponent": "TOR", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 8.95 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Reviewed October22 projected lineup and coach reports", "ppAssignmentSourceDate": "2026-10-13T18:05:51.141Z", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 90, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476932", "goalieName": "Anthony Stolarz", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8477953", "goals": 1, "sog": 6, "shootingPct": 0.16666666666666666, "gamesWithAttempts": 4, "recordedAttempts": 11, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020891", "date": "20260203", "season": 2025, "goals": 1, "sog": 3, "attempts": 4 }, { "gameId": "2023020630", "date": "20240109", "season": 2023, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 3 }, { "gameId": "2021020644", "date": "20220111", "season": 2021, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 3 }, { "gameId": "2021020423", "date": "20211211", "season": 2021, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476932", "goalieName": "Anthony Stolarz", "opponent": "EDM", "games": 5, "availableGames": 5, "shotsAgainst": 140.0, "goalsAgainst": 14.0, "savePct": 0.9, "gaa": 3.2642487046632125, "gsax": -1.5539999999999994, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020891", "date": "20260203", "goalieTeam": "TOR", "opponent": "EDM", "shotsAgainst": 36.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.709 }, { "gameId": "2024020274", "date": "20241116", "goalieTeam": "TOR", "opponent": "EDM", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3640.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.584 }, { "gameId": "2022020660", "date": "20230111", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "EDM", "shotsAgainst": 16.0, "goalsAgainst": 0.0, "seconds": 1200.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.249 }, { "gameId": "2021020049", "date": "20211019", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "EDM", "shotsAgainst": 36.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3461.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.959 }, { "gameId": "2018020494", "date": "20181214", "goalieTeam": "PHI", "opponent": "EDM", "shotsAgainst": 22.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3539.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.945 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.2918506305620867, "adjustedSOG": 1.2918506305620867, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.2918506305620867, "adjustedSOG": 1.2918506305620867, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. 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MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021063", "date": "20260316", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "DET", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 19.616666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020210", "date": "20251104", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "DET", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 21.75 }, { "gameId": "2024021115", "date": "20250322", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "DET", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 18.9 }, { "gameId": "2024021066", "date": "20250316", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "DET", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 23.983333333333334 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Reviewed October22 projected lineup and coach reports", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 99, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476434", "goalieName": "John Gibson", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8480727", "goals": 0, "sog": 8, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 6, "recordedAttempts": 14, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021063", "date": "20260316", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2024020557", "date": "20241223", "season": 2024, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2 }, { "gameId": "2022020849", "date": "20230212", "season": 2022, "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 4 }, { "gameId": "2022020121", "date": "20221028", "season": 2022, "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 2 }, { "gameId": "2021020879", "date": "20220304", "season": 2021, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 3 }, { "gameId": "2021020565", "date": "20211231", "season": 2021, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476434", "goalieName": "John Gibson", "opponent": "CGY", "games": 5, "availableGames": 25, "shotsAgainst": 152.0, "goalsAgainst": 14.0, "savePct": 0.9078947368421053, "gaa": 2.9964328180737216, "gsax": 0.16800000000000015, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021063", "date": "20260316", "goalieTeam": "DET", "opponent": "CGY", "shotsAgainst": 27.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3589.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.703 }, { "gameId": "2025020477", "date": "20251210", "goalieTeam": "DET", "opponent": "CGY", "shotsAgainst": 37.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.965 }, { "gameId": "2024021203", "date": "20250403", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "CGY", "shotsAgainst": 26.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 2381.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.555 }, { "gameId": "2024020818", "date": "20250130", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "CGY", "shotsAgainst": 29.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3525.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.091 }, { "gameId": "2024020648", "date": "20250107", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "CGY", "shotsAgainst": 33.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3725.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.854 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.9181436130361489, "adjustedSOG": 0.9181436130361489, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.9181436130361489, "adjustedSOG": 0.9181436130361489, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.047857257251599165, "goalHistoryGoals": 6.0, "goalHistoryShots": 146.0, "goalExpected": 0.04393983508298369, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.04393983508298369, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.04298846573947958, "goalProbability": 0.04298846573947958, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.057728852838933954, "modelSOG": 0.9181436130361489, "historyGames": 160, "seasonGames": { "2024": 74, "2025": 78, "2026": 8 }, "historyGoals": 6.0, "historyShots": 146.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.0410958904109589, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.047857257251599165, "goalieFactor": 1.0182492009293351, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 31.23233653551508, "btb": { "id": "8480727", "name": "Zach Whitecloud", "score": 31.23233653551508, "components": { "Goal model": 13.488372093023257, "SOG model": 23.25581395348837, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 5.116279069767442, "Goalie": 2.5, "Team H2H": 47.72472957851548, "Goalie H2H": 44.51534075481944 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": 8, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 430 } }, { "id": "8478042", "name": "Viktor Arvidsson", "team": "DET", "opponent": "CGY", "position": "R", "currentGP": 9, "currentSOG": 2.6666666666666665, "priorSOG": 2.536231884057971, "currentTOI": 19.33148148148148, "currentFiveTOI": 14.72777777777778, "ppShare": 0.6555555555555556, "rate": 3.2056928446155775, "fifty": 3.07829673364893, "inputs": { "Player": "Viktor Arvidsson", "Player_ID": "8478042", "Team": "DET", "Opponent": "CGY", "Position": "L", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 2.8165358912790146, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 2.8380624588590573, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 9, "Prior_GP": 69, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 6.789890607317993, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 9.948933613697807, "Current_PP_SOG60": 10.460048426150122, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 11.451838656317598, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 13.92792270531401, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 14.72777777777778, "Current_PP_Share": 0.6555555555555556, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.432929799910087, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2065.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3150.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 5, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.430208333333333, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 3.197131970684544, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 3.5598032407407403, "Other_State_SOG": 0.18985507246376812, "Environment_Proxy": 1.096640755468006, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 2.536231884057971, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:42.300645+00:00", "priorGP": 69, "currentTotalSOG": 24.0, "currentPPTOI": 3.824074074074074, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.67 SOG/game in 9 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 9 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 4.144, "currentIXG": 0.46044444444444443, "priorTOI": 14.599033816425122, "priorPPTOI": 1.8983091787439612, "deploymentChange": 4.732447665056357, "ppTOIChange": 1.9257648953301127, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020682", "date": "20260108", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 14.3 }, { "gameId": "2025020613", "date": "20251229", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 8.0, "toi": 16.116666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024021167", "date": "20250329", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 14.7 }, { "gameId": "2024020190", "date": "20241103", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 16.866666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020040", "date": "20241013", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 14.6 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 5, "h2hSOG": 3.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "CGY", "games": 8, "sogAllowedTotal": 237.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 29.625, "mostAllowedRank": 6, "fiveSogAllowed60": 29.8086265894977, "pkSogAllowed60": 38.789888106092, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.5, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 59.0, "C": 89.0, "R": 48.0, "L": 41.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 11.125, "L": 5.125, "R": 6.0, "D": 7.375 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 30.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.5, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 29.625, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.0, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8482445", "team": "CGY", "name": "Devin Cooley", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 3, "savePct": 0.8681318681318682, "gaa": 4.010025062656641, "gsax": -2.561, "goalsAllowed": 12.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 9.439, "shotsAgainst": 91.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0263021756310153, "factor": 1.0263021756310153, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T16:24:22.507Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.12440130950805069, "goalHistoryGoals": 44.0, "goalHistoryShots": 357.0, "goalExpected": 0.3236498506471464, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.33216254586181954, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.27649646767376956, "goalProbability": 0.2826292922628855, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.6132824589115959, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 9, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 2.601659515699883, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 6.789890607317993, "Current_PP_SOG60": 10.460048426150122, "Current_5v5_Min": 14.72777777777778, "Current_PP_Share": 0.6555555555555556, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.430208333333333, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 3.5598032407407403, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.3333333333333333, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0746225056341803, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9180727421999328, "Position_Factor": 1.002759140132039, "Input_GP": 9, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2065.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3150.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 9.948933613697807, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 11.451838656317598, "Prior_5v5_Min": 12.06159420289855, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.432929799910087, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0510018214936248, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.382352941176471, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0510018214936248, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9180727421999328, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 6.789890607317993, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 10.460048426150122, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 2.6666666666666665 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 3.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020682", "date": "20260108", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 14.3 }, { "gameId": "2025020613", "date": "20251229", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 8.0, "toi": 16.116666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024021167", "date": "20250329", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 14.7 }, { "gameId": "2024020190", "date": "20241103", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 16.866666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020040", "date": "20241013", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 14.6 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Reviewed October22 projected lineup and coach reports", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 219, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 35, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482445", "goalieName": "Devin Cooley", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8478042", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482445", "goalieName": "Devin Cooley", "opponent": "DET", "games": 1, "availableGames": 1, "shotsAgainst": 29.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "savePct": 0.8620689655172413, "gaa": 4.1248925809223715, "gsax": -1.0219999999999998, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020477", "date": "20251210", "goalieTeam": "CGY", "opponent": "DET", "shotsAgainst": 29.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3491.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.978 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 2.601659515699883, "adjustedSOG": 2.601659515699883, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 2.6547546078570234, "adjustedSOG": 2.601659515699883, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.12440130950805069, "goalHistoryGoals": 44.0, "goalHistoryShots": 357.0, "goalExpected": 0.3302549496399453, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.3302549496399453, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.2812595325522694, "goalProbability": 0.2812595325522694, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12851398445179163, "modelSOG": 2.601659515699883, "historyGames": 145, "seasonGames": { "2024": 67, "2025": 69, "2026": 9 }, "historyGoals": 44.0, "historyShots": 357.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.12324929971988796, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.12440130950805069, "goalieFactor": 1.0263021756310153, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 66.23903822868634, "btb": { "id": "8478042", "name": "Viktor Arvidsson", "score": 66.23903822868634, "components": { "Goal model": 87.67441860465117, "SOG model": 89.30232558139535, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 95.34883720930233, "Goalie": 71.32352941176471, "Team H2H": 50.478677110530896, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 5, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 22 } }, { "id": "8484860", "name": "Matvei Gridin", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "DET", "position": "L", "currentGP": 8, "currentSOG": 1.75, "priorSOG": 1.8918918918918919, "currentTOI": 14.60625, "currentFiveTOI": 12.164583333333333, "ppShare": 0.6906077348066298, "rate": 1.901411492658016, "fifty": 1.9124777596522022, "inputs": { "Player": "Matvei Gridin", "Player_ID": "8484860", "Team": "CGY", "Opponent": "DET", "Position": "R", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.9141523847121849, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.9957845864489088, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 8, "Prior_GP": 37, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 7.398527145059085, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.675296504915509, "Current_PP_SOG60": 7.2, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 10.462581738919836, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 12.3777759009009, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 12.164583333333333, "Current_PP_Share": 0.6906077348066298, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.49386133934679455, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1000.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1448.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 5, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.265740740740741, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 2.6941728158232454, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 2.9459535502353185, "Other_State_SOG": 0.07297297297297298, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9911254066849144, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.8918918918918919, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:42.317710+00:00", "priorGP": 37, "currentTotalSOG": 14.0, "currentPPTOI": 2.0833333333333335, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.75 SOG/game in 8 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 8 games. 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Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476434", "goalieName": "John Gibson", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8484860", "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 3, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021063", "date": "20260316", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 3 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476434", "goalieName": "John Gibson", "opponent": "CGY", "games": 5, "availableGames": 25, "shotsAgainst": 152.0, "goalsAgainst": 14.0, "savePct": 0.9078947368421053, "gaa": 2.9964328180737216, "gsax": 0.16800000000000015, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021063", "date": "20260316", "goalieTeam": "DET", "opponent": "CGY", "shotsAgainst": 27.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3589.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.703 }, { "gameId": "2025020477", "date": "20251210", "goalieTeam": "DET", "opponent": "CGY", "shotsAgainst": 37.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.965 }, { "gameId": "2024021203", "date": "20250403", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "CGY", "shotsAgainst": 26.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 2381.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.555 }, { "gameId": "2024020818", "date": "20250130", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "CGY", "shotsAgainst": 29.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3525.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.091 }, { "gameId": "2024020648", "date": "20250107", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "CGY", "shotsAgainst": 33.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3725.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.854 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.687344401415005, "adjustedSOG": 1.687344401415005, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.687344401415005, "adjustedSOG": 1.687344401415005, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. 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Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 3.222, "currentIXG": 0.40275, "priorTOI": 17.252850877192984, "priorPPTOI": 2.6530701754385966, "deploymentChange": 0.057565789473681406, "ppTOIChange": 0.8344298245614032, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021082", "date": "20260318", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 7.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 8.0, "toi": 18.583333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2025020670", "date": "20260106", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 14.55 }, { "gameId": "2024020675", "date": "20250111", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 13.316666666666666 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 4.333333333333333, "opponentDefense": { "team": "PHI", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 383.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 31.916666666666668, "mostAllowedRank": 2, "fiveSogAllowed60": 31.042564889030356, "pkSogAllowed60": 46.879209699146834, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.75, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 113.0, "C": 130.0, "R": 73.0, "L": 67.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.833333333333334, "L": 5.583333333333333, "R": 6.083333333333333, "D": 9.416666666666666 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 27.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.833333333333332, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 31.916666666666668, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.583333333333333, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8479361", "team": "PHI", "name": "Joseph Woll", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 6, "savePct": 0.9166666666666666, "gaa": 2.640143007746253, "gsax": 4.5710000000000015, "goalsAllowed": 16.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 20.571, "shotsAgainst": 192.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9655996195755495, "factor": 0.9655996195755495, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T14:50:13.988Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.1257896955697278, "goalHistoryGoals": 63.0, "goalHistoryShots": 503.0, "goalExpected": 0.48650897581452546, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.469772881966596, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.38523117479343044, "goalProbability": 0.37485576631041206, "goalAdjustmentPP": -1.0375408483018378, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 8, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 3.867637755310757, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 8.798882681564246, "Current_PP_SOG60": 27.956989247311828, "Current_5v5_Min": 11.933333333333334, "Current_PP_Share": 0.7926136363636364, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.388425925925926, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 4.270939867424242, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.125, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.1165260841882552, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9915761915723407, "Position_Factor": 0.9919806918148306, "Input_GP": 8, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1674.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2112.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 11.392219231710301, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 18.449330467845925, "Prior_5v5_Min": 13.444078947368421, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.506664852545449, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0561652679147837, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.062091503267974, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0561652679147837, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9915761915723407, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 8.798882681564246, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 27.956989247311828, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 5.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021082", "date": "20260318", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 7.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 8.0, "toi": 18.583333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2025020670", "date": "20260106", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 14.55 }, { "gameId": "2024020675", "date": "20250111", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 13.316666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020568", "date": "20241228", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 13.316666666666666 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. 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Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479361", "goalieName": "Joseph Woll", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8483445", "goals": 1, "sog": 6, "shootingPct": 0.16666666666666666, "gamesWithAttempts": 3, "recordedAttempts": 11, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021029", "date": "20260312", "season": 2025, "goals": 1, "sog": 2, "attempts": 7 }, { "gameId": "2024021176", "date": "20250330", "season": 2024, "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 3 }, { "gameId": "2024020459", "date": "20241212", "season": 2024, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479361", "goalieName": "Joseph Woll", "opponent": "ANA", "games": 3, "availableGames": 3, "shotsAgainst": 91.0, "goalsAgainst": 7.0, "savePct": 0.9230769230769231, "gaa": 2.6359832635983262, "gsax": 2.575, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021029", "date": "20260312", "goalieTeam": "TOR", "opponent": "ANA", "shotsAgainst": 40.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3567.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.449 }, { "gameId": "2024021176", "date": "20250330", "goalieTeam": "TOR", "opponent": "ANA", "shotsAgainst": 31.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3593.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.338 }, { "gameId": "2024020459", "date": "20241212", "goalieTeam": "TOR", "opponent": "ANA", "shotsAgainst": 20.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 2400.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.788 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 3.867637755310757, "adjustedSOG": 3.867637755310757, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 3.946569138072201, "adjustedSOG": 3.867637755310757, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.1257896955697278, "goalHistoryGoals": 63.0, "goalHistoryShots": 503.0, "goalExpected": 0.4964377304229852, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.47936008363938376, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.39130486163140565, "goalProbability": 0.38082051185701815, "goalAdjustmentPP": -1.0484349774387502 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12851186428545863, "modelSOG": 3.867637755310757, "historyGames": 166, "seasonGames": { "2024": 82, "2025": 76, "2026": 8 }, "historyGoals": 63.0, "historyShots": 503.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.12524850894632206, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.1257896955697278, "goalieFactor": 0.9655996195755495, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 64.94344301768743, "btb": { "id": "8483445", "name": "Cutter Gauthier", "score": 64.94344301768743, "components": { "Goal model": 97.67441860465117, "SOG model": 98.6046511627907, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 91.86046511627907, "Goalie": 28.970588235294116, "Team H2H": 54.1402461767997, "Goalie H2H": 52.741844769403826 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": 6, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 34 } }, { "id": "8477948", "name": "Travis Sanheim", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "ANA", "position": "D", "currentGP": 12, "currentSOG": 1.75, "priorSOG": 1.1728395061728396, "currentTOI": 25.727777777777778, "currentFiveTOI": 20.370833333333334, "ppShare": 0.09680232558139534, "rate": 1.233301943414371, "fifty": 1.3789335436859669, "inputs": { "Player": "Travis Sanheim", "Player_ID": "8477948", "Team": "PHI", "Opponent": "ANA", "Position": "D", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.3493197085163087, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.4740891670697494, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 12, "Prior_GP": 81, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.172632440171815, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 2.8766413268832065, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 3.626838605682047, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 19.976126543209872, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 20.370833333333334, "Current_PP_Share": 0.09680232558139534, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.23982661267700917, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 333.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3440.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 7, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.042592592592593, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.7044986531232341, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.4881346899224806, "Other_State_SOG": 0.2111111111111111, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9949214190083264, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.1728395061728396, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/philadelphia-flyers/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:42.353761+00:00", "priorGP": 81, "currentTotalSOG": 21.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.46249999999999997, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.75 SOG/game in 12 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 12 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.525, "currentIXG": 0.12708333333333333, "priorTOI": 24.222633744855965, "priorPPTOI": 1.0211934156378601, "deploymentChange": 1.5051440329218124, "ppTOIChange": -0.5586934156378602, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021082", "date": "20260318", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 24.5 }, { "gameId": "2025020670", "date": "20260106", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 24.633333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020675", "date": "20250111", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 22.25 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 1.3333333333333333, "opponentDefense": { "team": "ANA", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 239.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 26.555555555555557, "mostAllowedRank": 18, "fiveSogAllowed60": 25.834281008587897, "pkSogAllowed60": 38.93928820655967, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 43.333333333333336, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 54.0, "C": 91.0, "R": 57.0, "L": 37.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.11111111111111, "L": 4.111111111111111, "R": 6.333333333333333, "D": 6.0 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 28.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.2, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 26.555555555555557, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.0, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8480843", "team": "ANA", "name": "Lukas Dostal", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.8813559322033898, "gaa": 3.1634446397188047, "gsax": 2.846, "goalsAllowed": 21.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 23.846, "shotsAgainst": 177.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9815060369171769, "factor": 0.9815060369171769, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T16:38:16.530Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.07254923327282764, "goalHistoryGoals": 20.0, "goalHistoryShots": 255.0, "goalExpected": 0.11803858091001619, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.11585557975231751, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.11133823342642273, "goalProbability": 0.10939616476336315, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.19420686630595707, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 12, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.6270134856714742, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.172632440171815, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 20.370833333333334, "Current_PP_Share": 0.09680232558139534, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.042592592592593, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.4881346899224806, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.3333333333333333, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0050173142237073, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9117211340641708, "Position_Factor": 0.9807721620568941, "Input_GP": 12, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 333.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3440.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 2.8766413268832065, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 3.626838605682047, "Prior_5v5_Min": 19.05514403292181, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.23982661267700917, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9131859898857464, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.34640522875817, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9131859898857464, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9117211340641708, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 4.525957698565301, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021082", "date": "20260318", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 24.5 }, { "gameId": "2025020670", "date": "20260106", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 24.633333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020675", "date": "20250111", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 22.25 }, { "gameId": "2024020568", "date": "20241228", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 22.4 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff latest reported chart; October 21 final lineup pending", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 133, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 10, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480843", "goalieName": "Lukas Dostal", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8477948", "goals": 2, "sog": 10, "shootingPct": 0.2, "gamesWithAttempts": 5, "recordedAttempts": 14, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021082", "date": "20260318", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 3 }, { "gameId": "2025020670", "date": "20260106", "season": 2025, "goals": 1, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2 }, { "gameId": "2024020568", "date": "20241228", "season": 2024, "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2023020208", "date": "20231110", "season": 2023, "goals": 1, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2023020117", "date": "20231028", "season": 2023, "goals": 0, "sog": 5, "attempts": 7 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480843", "goalieName": "Lukas Dostal", "opponent": "PHI", "games": 5, "availableGames": 5, "shotsAgainst": 155.0, "goalsAgainst": 18.0, "savePct": 0.8838709677419355, "gaa": 3.646595385481148, "gsax": -2.507999999999999, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021082", "date": "20260318", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 28.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3704.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.611 }, { "gameId": "2025020670", "date": "20260106", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 38.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3560.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.171 }, { "gameId": "2024020568", "date": "20241228", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3472.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.781 }, { "gameId": "2023020208", "date": "20231110", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 35.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3450.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.281 }, { "gameId": "2023020117", "date": "20231028", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3584.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.648 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.6270134856714742, "adjustedSOG": 1.6270134856714742, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.6270134856714742, "adjustedSOG": 1.6270134856714742, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.07254923327282764, "goalHistoryGoals": 20.0, "goalHistoryShots": 255.0, "goalExpected": 0.11803858091001619, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.11803858091001619, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.11133823342642273, "goalProbability": 0.11133823342642273, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05754977811853814, "modelSOG": 1.6270134856714742, "historyGames": 175, "seasonGames": { "2024": 82, "2025": 81, "2026": 12 }, "historyGoals": 20.0, "historyShots": 255.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.0784313725490196, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.07254923327282764, "goalieFactor": 0.9815060369171769, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 48.49100324522294, "btb": { "id": "8477948", "name": "Travis Sanheim", "score": 48.49100324522294, "components": { "Goal model": 41.86046511627907, "SOG model": 61.86046511627907, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 33.72093023255814, "Goalie": 44.85294117647059, "Team H2H": 56.005221932114885, "Goalie H2H": 57.67716535433071 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": 10, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 222 } }, { "id": "8476892", "name": "Colton Parayko", "team": "STL", "opponent": "CAR", "position": "D", "currentGP": 9, "currentSOG": 1.4444444444444444, "priorSOG": 1.3636363636363635, "currentTOI": 21.385185185185186, "currentFiveTOI": 17.305555555555557, "ppShare": 0.023106060606060606, "rate": 1.153144442362709, "fifty": 1.1726882973997488, "inputs": { "Player": "Colton Parayko", "Player_ID": "8476892", "Team": "STL", "Opponent": "CAR", "Position": "D", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.2732049876745122, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.2542877118153408, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 9, "Prior_GP": 77, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.237560192616372, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.09556313993174, "Current_PP_SOG60": 59.01639344262295, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 17.764603174603174, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 17.305555555555557, "Current_PP_Share": 0.023106060606060606, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.04670169443064697, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 61.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2640.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 5, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.016414141414142, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.1514192105346001, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.11590956917661464, "Other_State_SOG": 0.08124098124098124, "Environment_Proxy": 0.85, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.3636363636363635, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/st-louis-blues/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:42.371637+00:00", "priorGP": 77, "currentTotalSOG": 13.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.11296296296296296, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.44 SOG/game in 9 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 9 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.685, "currentIXG": 0.07611111111111112, "priorTOI": 22.196320346320345, "priorPPTOI": 0.19264069264069264, "deploymentChange": -0.8111351611351587, "ppTOIChange": -0.07967772967772968, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021033", "date": "20260312", "team": "STL", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 21.483333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020730", "date": "20260113", "team": "STL", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 21.35 }, { "gameId": "2024020284", "date": "20241117", "team": "STL", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 24.383333333333333 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 1.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "CAR", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 246.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 22.363636363636363, "mostAllowedRank": 31, "fiveSogAllowed60": 21.75191064079953, "pkSogAllowed60": 32.87187039764359, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 33.09090909090909, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 77.0, "R": 66.0, "D": 59.0, "L": 44.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.0, "L": 4.0, "R": 6.0, "D": 5.363636363636363 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 23.0, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 7, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 22.428571428571427, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 22.363636363636363, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.363636363636363, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8481611", "team": "CAR", "name": "Pyotr Kochetkov", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 6, "savePct": 0.8991596638655462, "gaa": 1.9842910293509715, "gsax": 2.2720000000000002, "goalsAllowed": 12.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 14.272, "shotsAgainst": 119.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9828959307519136, "factor": 0.9828959307519136, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T22:32:34.088Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.07508272229922858, "goalHistoryGoals": 20.0, "goalHistoryShots": 243.0, "goalExpected": 0.09441280442305638, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.0927979612782984, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.09009292896088811, "goalProbability": 0.08862238473528665, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.14705442256014584, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 9, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.2574504697204674, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.237560192616372, "Current_PP_SOG60": 59.01639344262295, "Current_5v5_Min": 17.305555555555557, "Current_PP_Share": 0.023106060606060606, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.016414141414142, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.11590956917661464, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.1111111111111111, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9235603264096603, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.85, "Position_Factor": 0.9854836768055022, "Input_GP": 9, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 61.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2640.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.09556313993174, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 18.835714285714285, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.04670169443064697, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.8586256566683613, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.34640522875817, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.8586256566683613, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.85, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 4.237560192616372, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 59.01639344262295, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021033", "date": "20260312", "team": "STL", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 21.483333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020730", "date": "20260113", "team": "STL", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 21.35 }, { "gameId": "2024020284", "date": "20241117", "team": "STL", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 24.383333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020084", "date": "20241019", "team": "STL", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 23.466666666666665 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 160, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481611", "goalieName": "Pyotr Kochetkov", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8476892", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481611", "goalieName": "Pyotr Kochetkov", "opponent": "STL", "games": 3, "availableGames": 3, "shotsAgainst": 60.0, "goalsAgainst": 6.0, "savePct": 0.9, "gaa": 2.610587382160986, "gsax": -0.46099999999999985, "log": [ { "gameId": "2024020284", "date": "20241117", "goalieTeam": "CAR", "opponent": "STL", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3598.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.005 }, { "gameId": "2024020084", "date": "20241019", "goalieTeam": "CAR", "opponent": "STL", "shotsAgainst": 19.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3476.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.804 }, { "gameId": "2022020369", "date": "20221201", "goalieTeam": "CAR", "opponent": "STL", "shotsAgainst": 11.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 1200.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 0.73 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.2574504697204674, "adjustedSOG": 1.2574504697204674, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.2574504697204674, "adjustedSOG": 1.2574504697204674, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.07508272229922858, "goalHistoryGoals": 20.0, "goalHistoryShots": 243.0, "goalExpected": 0.09441280442305638, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.09441280442305638, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.09009292896088811, "goalProbability": 0.09009292896088811, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05753373748635403, "modelSOG": 1.2574504697204674, "historyGames": 150, "seasonGames": { "2024": 64, "2025": 77, "2026": 9 }, "historyGoals": 20.0, "historyShots": 243.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.0823045267489712, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.07508272229922858, "goalieFactor": 0.9828959307519136, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 41.32382344521997, "btb": { "id": "8476892", "name": "Colton Parayko", "score": 41.32382344521997, "components": { "Goal model": 32.325581395348834, "SOG model": 44.883720930232556, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 19.069767441860463, "Goalie": 50.14705882352941, "Team H2H": 37.95225662066393, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 331 } }, { "id": "8476483", "name": "Rickard Rakell", "team": "PIT", "opponent": "NSH", "position": "L", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 2.4, "priorSOG": 2.7666666666666666, "currentTOI": 19.695, "currentFiveTOI": 14.296666666666667, "ppShare": 0.673469387755102, "rate": 2.9527448907726073, "fifty": 2.8558751037341827, "inputs": { "Player": "Rickard Rakell", "Player_ID": "8476483", "Team": "PIT", "Opponent": "NSH", "Position": "R", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 2.9112310913593396, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 2.54088958114667, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 10, "Prior_GP": 60, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 7.1345301935183025, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 7.530202916682957, "Current_PP_SOG60": 10.909090909090908, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 13.643746616134273, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 14.270499999999998, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 14.296666666666667, "Current_PP_Share": 0.673469387755102, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.6988077441263866, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1980.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2940.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 6, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.130208333333334, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 3.4940355794088025, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 3.455038265306123, "Other_State_SOG": 0.22000000000000003, "Environment_Proxy": 1.0738773444064478, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 2.7666666666666666, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/pittsburgh-penguins/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:42.390102+00:00", "priorGP": 60, "currentTotalSOG": 24.0, "currentPPTOI": 3.3, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.40 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 3.59, "currentIXG": 0.359, "priorTOI": 18.948611111111113, "priorPPTOI": 3.078333333333333, "deploymentChange": 0.7463888888888874, "ppTOIChange": 0.22166666666666668, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2024020830", "date": "20250201", "team": "PIT", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 6.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 20.783333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2024020515", "date": "20241219", "team": "PIT", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 17.833333333333332 } ], "h2hGames": 2, "h2hAvailableGames": 2, "h2hSOG": 4.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "NSH", "games": 8, "sogAllowedTotal": 233.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 29.125, "mostAllowedRank": 8, "fiveSogAllowed60": 26.902173913043477, "pkSogAllowed60": 37.776914108045084, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 45.125, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 82.0, "L": 44.0, "D": 67.0, "R": 40.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.25, "L": 5.5, "R": 5.0, "D": 8.375 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 27.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 3, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 30.0, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 29.125, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.5, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8477424", "team": "NSH", "name": "Juuse Saros", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.9061032863849765, "gaa": 2.8192176670973805, "gsax": 1.6679999999999993, "goalsAllowed": 20.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 21.668, "shotsAgainst": 213.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9906396066739361, "factor": 0.9906396066739361, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T15:56:16.281Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.14775097789127517, "goalHistoryGoals": 60.0, "goalHistoryShots": 393.0, "goalExpected": 0.3596376677479544, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.3562713177229653, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.30207083749191305, "goalProbability": 0.29971740462134794, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.23534328705651086, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 2.434079779915902, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 7.1345301935183025, "Current_PP_SOG60": 10.909090909090908, "Current_5v5_Min": 14.296666666666667, "Current_PP_Share": 0.673469387755102, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.130208333333334, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 3.455038265306123, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.1, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0235094259979116, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9053307495740243, "Position_Factor": 1.0017791101863063, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1980.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2940.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 7.530202916682957, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 13.643746616134273, "Prior_5v5_Min": 14.209444444444445, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.6988077441263866, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.038447744064271, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.062091503267974, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.038447744064271, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9053307495740243, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 7.1345301935183025, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 10.909090909090908, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 4.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2024020830", "date": "20250201", "team": "PIT", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 6.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 20.783333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2024020515", "date": "20241219", "team": "PIT", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 17.833333333333332 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-19T20:27:28.451Z", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 159, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. 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Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477424", "goalieName": "Juuse Saros", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8476483", "goals": 2, "sog": 23, "shootingPct": 0.08695652173913043, "gamesWithAttempts": 7, "recordedAttempts": 35, "log": [ { "gameId": "2024020830", "date": "20250201", "season": 2024, "goals": 0, "sog": 6, "attempts": 7 }, { "gameId": "2024020515", "date": "20241219", "season": 2024, "goals": 1, "sog": 2, "attempts": 4 }, { "gameId": "2023021289", "date": "20240415", "season": 2023, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 3 }, { "gameId": "2022021192", "date": "20230330", "season": 2022, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 3 }, { "gameId": "2022020963", "date": "20230228", "season": 2022, "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 7 }, { "gameId": "2021020925", "date": "20220310", "season": 2021, "goals": 0, "sog": 4, "attempts": 5 }, { "gameId": "2021020283", "date": "20211122", "season": 2021, "goals": 1, "sog": 5, "attempts": 6 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477424", "goalieName": "Juuse Saros", "opponent": "PIT", "games": 5, "availableGames": 13, "shotsAgainst": 131.0, "goalsAgainst": 15.0, "savePct": 0.8854961832061069, "gaa": 3.034219250435467, "gsax": -2.5649999999999995, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020296", "date": "20251116", "goalieTeam": "NSH", "opponent": "PIT", "shotsAgainst": 21.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3562.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.064 }, { "gameId": "2025020281", "date": "20251114", "goalieTeam": "NSH", "opponent": "PIT", "shotsAgainst": 17.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3637.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.622 }, { "gameId": "2024020830", "date": "20250201", "goalieTeam": "NSH", "opponent": "PIT", "shotsAgainst": 35.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3527.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.258 }, { "gameId": "2024020515", "date": "20241219", "goalieTeam": "NSH", "opponent": "PIT", "shotsAgainst": 20.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3657.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.863 }, { "gameId": "2023021289", "date": "20240415", "goalieTeam": "NSH", "opponent": "PIT", "shotsAgainst": 38.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3414.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.628 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 2.434079779915902, "adjustedSOG": 2.434079779915902, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 2.434079779915902, "adjustedSOG": 2.434079779915902, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.14775097789127517, "goalHistoryGoals": 60.0, "goalHistoryShots": 393.0, "goalExpected": 0.3596376677479544, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.3562713177229653, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.30207083749191305, "goalProbability": 0.29971740462134794, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.23534328705651086 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12841232100398664, "modelSOG": 2.434079779915902, "historyGames": 151, "seasonGames": { "2024": 81, "2025": 60, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 60.0, "historyShots": 393.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.15267175572519084, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.14775097789127517, "goalieFactor": 0.9906396066739361, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 66.78392302601048, "btb": { "id": "8476483", "name": "Rickard Rakell", "score": 66.78392302601048, "components": { "Goal model": 91.86046511627907, "SOG model": 84.88372093023256, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 90.46511627906976, "Goalie": 81.91176470588235, "Team H2H": 53.80765883376849, "Goalie H2H": 38.58807032682559 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 2, "goalieH2HShots": 23, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 17 } }, { "id": "8482475", "name": "Egor Chinakhov", "team": "PIT", "opponent": "NSH", "position": "L", "currentGP": 8, "currentSOG": 1.75, "priorSOG": 1.9444444444444444, "currentTOI": 15.85, "currentFiveTOI": 13.308333333333334, "ppShare": 0.38773946360153255, "rate": 2.189520029096811, "fifty": 2.063481745202766, "inputs": { "Player": "Egor Chinakhov", "Player_ID": "8482475", "Team": "PIT", "Opponent": "NSH", "Position": "R", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 2.292967458572774, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 2.2323642623254316, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 8, "Prior_GP": 72, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 6.1991233562930494, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 8.420560201157826, "Current_PP_SOG60": 7.1146245059288535, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 9.156720798278224, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 12.878541666666665, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 13.308333333333334, "Current_PP_Share": 0.38773946360153255, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.268574142771308, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1012.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2610.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 6, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.130208333333334, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 1.8057813507405116, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 1.9891842273307792, "Other_State_SOG": 0.05, "Environment_Proxy": 1.0738773444064478, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.9444444444444444, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/pittsburgh-penguins/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:42.411104+00:00", "priorGP": 72, "currentTotalSOG": 14.0, "currentPPTOI": 2.1083333333333334, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.75 SOG/game in 8 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 8 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 2.144, "currentIXG": 0.268, "priorTOI": 13.479861111111111, "priorPPTOI": 1.183101851851852, "deploymentChange": 2.3701388888888886, "ppTOIChange": 0.9252314814814815, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2024020131", "date": "20241026", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 17.266666666666666 } ], "h2hGames": 1, "h2hAvailableGames": 1, "h2hSOG": 1.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "NSH", "games": 8, "sogAllowedTotal": 233.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 29.125, "mostAllowedRank": 8, "fiveSogAllowed60": 26.902173913043477, "pkSogAllowed60": 37.776914108045084, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 45.125, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 82.0, "L": 44.0, "D": 67.0, "R": 40.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.25, "L": 5.5, "R": 5.0, "D": 8.375 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 27.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 3, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 30.0, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 29.125, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.5, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8477424", "team": "NSH", "name": "Juuse Saros", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.9061032863849765, "gaa": 2.8192176670973805, "gsax": 1.6679999999999993, "goalsAllowed": 20.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 21.668, "shotsAgainst": 213.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9906396066739361, "factor": 0.9906396066739361, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T15:56:16.281Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.1330695935445192, "goalHistoryGoals": 30.0, "goalHistoryShots": 222.0, "goalExpected": 0.23505512852892282, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.2328549200725836, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.20947273217790227, "goalProbability": 0.20773149255563567, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.1741239622266605, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 8, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.7664075035314795, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 6.1991233562930494, "Current_PP_SOG60": 7.1146245059288535, "Current_5v5_Min": 13.308333333333334, "Current_PP_Share": 0.38773946360153255, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.130208333333334, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.9891842273307792, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.125, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0235094259979116, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9053307495740243, "Position_Factor": 1.0017791101863063, "Input_GP": 8, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1012.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2610.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 8.420560201157826, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 9.156720798278224, "Prior_5v5_Min": 11.875694444444443, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.268574142771308, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.038447744064271, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.062091503267974, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.038447744064271, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9053307495740243, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 6.1991233562930494, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 7.1146245059288535, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 1.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2024020131", "date": "20241026", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 17.266666666666666 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": true, "availabilityConflict": { "status": "Unresolved", "injurySourceUrl": "https://www.fantasypros.com/nhl/news/614408/egor-chinakhov-lower-body-no-timeline-return.php", "injurySourceDate": "2026-10-17T07:33:00Z", "reporter": "Josh Yohe, relayed by FantasyPros", "projectedSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/pittsburgh-penguins-vegas-golden-knights-game-preview-october-17-2026", "alternateSourceUrl": "https://www.pensburgh.com/penguins-lines-game-time-watch/82009/game-preview-pittsburgh-penguins-vegas-golden-knights-10-17-2026", "reviewedAt": "2026-10-17T20:46:41.048Z", "decision": "Retain conditional NHL projected role and measured opportunity; do not assume recovery, an alternate dressing list or a PP transfer." }, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-19T20:27:28.451Z", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 184, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 21, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477424", "goalieName": "Juuse Saros", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8482475", "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 1, "log": [ { "gameId": "2021020342", "date": "20211130", "season": 2021, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477424", "goalieName": "Juuse Saros", "opponent": "PIT", "games": 5, "availableGames": 13, "shotsAgainst": 131.0, "goalsAgainst": 15.0, "savePct": 0.8854961832061069, "gaa": 3.034219250435467, "gsax": -2.5649999999999995, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020296", "date": "20251116", "goalieTeam": "NSH", "opponent": "PIT", "shotsAgainst": 21.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3562.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.064 }, { "gameId": "2025020281", "date": "20251114", "goalieTeam": "NSH", "opponent": "PIT", "shotsAgainst": 17.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3637.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.622 }, { "gameId": "2024020830", "date": "20250201", "goalieTeam": "NSH", "opponent": "PIT", "shotsAgainst": 35.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3527.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.258 }, { "gameId": "2024020515", "date": "20241219", "goalieTeam": "NSH", "opponent": "PIT", "shotsAgainst": 20.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3657.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.863 }, { "gameId": "2023021289", "date": "20240415", "goalieTeam": "NSH", "opponent": "PIT", "shotsAgainst": 38.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3414.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.628 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.7664075035314795, "adjustedSOG": 1.7664075035314795, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.7664075035314795, "adjustedSOG": 1.7664075035314795, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.1330695935445192, "goalHistoryGoals": 30.0, "goalHistoryShots": 222.0, "goalExpected": 0.23505512852892282, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.2328549200725836, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.20947273217790227, "goalProbability": 0.20773149255563567, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.1741239622266605 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12848409121335178, "modelSOG": 1.7664075035314795, "historyGames": 110, "seasonGames": { "2024": 30, "2025": 72, "2026": 8 }, "historyGoals": 30.0, "historyShots": 222.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.13513513513513514, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.1330695935445192, "goalieFactor": 0.9906396066739361, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 61.882692971025094, "btb": { "id": "8482475", "name": "Egor Chinakhov", "score": 61.882692971025094, "components": { "Goal model": 75.34883720930233, "SOG model": 67.90697674418605, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 77.44186046511628, "Goalie": 81.91176470588235, "Team H2H": 49.72703536672205, "Goalie H2H": 50.23158869847151 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 1, "goalieH2HShots": 1, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 66 } }, { "id": "8483731", "name": "Alex Bump", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "ANA", "position": "L", "currentGP": 5, "currentSOG": 1.6, "priorSOG": 1.3529411764705883, "currentTOI": 12.613333333333333, "currentFiveTOI": 11.213333333333335, "ppShare": 0.28429282160625446, "rate": 1.394517431418299, "fifty": 1.5008818552198102, "inputs": { "Player": "Alex Bump", "Player_ID": "8483731", "Team": "PHI", "Opponent": "ANA", "Position": "L", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.494577861406872, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.5138964785246063, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 5, "Prior_GP": 17, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 6.4209274673008325, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.127659574468085, "Current_PP_SOG60": 18.0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 7.886089813800657, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 11.30521568627451, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 11.213333333333335, "Current_PP_Share": 0.28429282160625446, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.21021319514172948, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 400.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1407.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 3, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.042592592592593, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 1.3215068636573344, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 1.4335728763589461, "Other_State_SOG": 0.052941176470588235, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9949214190083264, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.3529411764705883, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/philadelphia-flyers/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:42.434060+00:00", "priorGP": 17, "currentTotalSOG": 8.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.3333333333333335, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.60 SOG/game in 5 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 5 games. 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MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021082", "date": "20260318", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 13.333333333333334 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff latest reported chart; October 21 final lineup pending", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 31, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. 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Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480843", "goalieName": "Lukas Dostal", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8483731", "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 3, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021082", "date": "20260318", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 3 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480843", "goalieName": "Lukas Dostal", "opponent": "PHI", "games": 5, "availableGames": 5, "shotsAgainst": 155.0, "goalsAgainst": 18.0, "savePct": 0.8838709677419355, "gaa": 3.646595385481148, "gsax": -2.507999999999999, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021082", "date": "20260318", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 28.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3704.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.611 }, { "gameId": "2025020670", "date": "20260106", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 38.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3560.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.171 }, { "gameId": "2024020568", "date": "20241228", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3472.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.781 }, { "gameId": "2023020208", "date": "20231110", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 35.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3450.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.281 }, { "gameId": "2023020117", "date": "20231028", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3584.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.648 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.4853202442062763, "adjustedSOG": 1.4853202442062763, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.4853202442062763, "adjustedSOG": 1.4853202442062763, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.13625052336556912, "goalHistoryGoals": 5.0, "goalHistoryShots": 31.0, "goalExpected": 0.20237566063858006, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.20237566063858006, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.18321196481280141, "goalProbability": 0.18321196481280141, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12848818560889555, "modelSOG": 1.4853202442062763, "historyGames": 22, "seasonGames": { "2025": 17, "2026": 5 }, "historyGoals": 5.0, "historyShots": 31.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.16129032258064516, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.13625052336556912, "goalieFactor": 0.9815060369171769, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": 55.07477318135706, "btb": { "id": "8483731", "name": "Alex Bump", "score": 55.07477318135706, "components": { "Goal model": 67.67441860465117, "SOG model": 56.74418604651163, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 67.20930232558139, "Goalie": 44.85294117647059, "Team H2H": 49.82197958699264, "Goalie H2H": 50.23158869847151 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 1, "goalieH2HShots": 1, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 144 } }, { "id": "8479410", "name": "Mikhail Sergachev", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "TBL", "position": "D", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 2.7, "priorSOG": 2.0384615384615383, "currentTOI": 22.68, "currentFiveTOI": 16.253333333333334, "ppShare": 0.6774815290716351, "rate": 1.8706297625039914, "fifty": 2.0876814992664214, "inputs": { "Player": "Mikhail Sergachev", "Player_ID": "8479410", "Team": "UTA", "Opponent": "TBL", "Position": "D", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 2.3622578659987625, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 2.605419073683492, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 10, "Prior_GP": 78, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 7.383100902378999, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.348308374930671, "Current_PP_SOG60": 8.534850640113797, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 9.681528662420382, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 16.57829487179487, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 16.253333333333334, "Current_PP_Share": 0.6774815290716351, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.6339889794717711, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2109.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3113.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 6, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.821018518518519, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 3.2032474814970366, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 3.2661509976085954, "Other_State_SOG": 0.2853846153846154, "Environment_Proxy": 0.8844868901771036, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 2.0384615384615383, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/utah-mammoth/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:42.454928+00:00", "priorGP": 78, "currentTotalSOG": 27.0, "currentPPTOI": 3.5149999999999997, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.70 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.3, "currentIXG": 0.13, "priorTOI": 24.295726495726495, "priorPPTOI": 3.019230769230769, "deploymentChange": -1.615726495726495, "ppTOIChange": 0.4957692307692305, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020825", "date": "20260126", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 25.066666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020194", "date": "20251102", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 24.816666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024021145", "date": "20250327", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 22.883333333333333 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 1.3333333333333333, "opponentDefense": { "team": "TBL", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 218.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 24.22222222222222, "mostAllowedRank": 29, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.310572168589594, "pkSogAllowed60": 47.9002079002079, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 36.333333333333336, "positionUnassignedSOG": 1.0, "positionTotals": { "L": 36.0, "R": 49.0, "D": 66.0, "C": 66.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.333333333333333, "L": 4.0, "R": 5.444444444444445, "D": 7.333333333333333 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 24.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.25, "positionSourceDifference": 1.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 24.22222222222222, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.333333333333333, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8483710", "team": "TBL", "name": "Dennis Hildeby", "status": "Unconfirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 2, "savePct": 0.92, "gaa": 2.0089285714285716, "gsax": 0.8719999999999999, "goalsAllowed": 4.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.872, "shotsAgainst": 50.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9926942170737747, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Starter remains unconfirmed per Daily Faceoff; no Model Goal adjustment.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": null }, "goalShootingPct": 0.08072918580130349, "goalHistoryGoals": 28.0, "goalHistoryShots": 318.0, "goalExpected": 0.21509738627468858, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.21509738627468858, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.1935371020643837, "goalProbability": 0.1935371020643837, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 2.66443150813018, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 7.383100902378999, "Current_PP_SOG60": 8.534850640113797, "Current_5v5_Min": 16.253333333333334, "Current_PP_Share": 0.6774815290716351, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.821018518518519, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 3.2661509976085954, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.2, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9588832837562793, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0032616490671127, "Position_Factor": 1.0144938104754524, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2109.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3113.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.348308374930671, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 9.681528662420382, "Prior_5v5_Min": 17.33653846153846, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.6339889794717711, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9991571455328714, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.34640522875817, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9991571455328714, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0032616490671127, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 7.383100902378999, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 8.534850640113797, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020825", "date": "20260126", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 25.066666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020194", "date": "20251102", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 24.816666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024021145", "date": "20250327", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 22.883333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024021111", "date": "20250322", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 22.716666666666665 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 141, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 44, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8483710", "goalieName": "Dennis Hildeby", "starterStatus": "Unconfirmed", "shooterId": "8479410", "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 3, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020733", "date": "20260113", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 3 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8483710", "goalieName": "Dennis Hildeby", "opponent": "UTA", "games": 1, "availableGames": 1, "shotsAgainst": 41.0, "goalsAgainst": 6.0, "savePct": 0.8536585365853658, "gaa": 6.0, "gsax": -1.2770000000000001, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020733", "date": "20260113", "goalieTeam": "TOR", "opponent": "UTA", "shotsAgainst": 41.0, "goalsAgainst": 6.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.723 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 2.66443150813018, "adjustedSOG": 2.66443150813018, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 2.66443150813018, "adjustedSOG": 2.66443150813018, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.08072918580130349, "goalHistoryGoals": 28.0, "goalHistoryShots": 318.0, "goalExpected": 0.21509738627468858, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.21509738627468858, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.1935371020643837, "goalProbability": 0.1935371020643837, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05744799664944855, "modelSOG": 2.66443150813018, "historyGames": 165, "seasonGames": { "2024": 77, "2025": 78, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 28.0, "historyShots": 318.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.0880503144654088, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.08072918580130349, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 53.114947563821204, "btb": { "id": "8479410", "name": "Mikhail Sergachev", "score": 53.114947563821204, "components": { "Goal model": 70.46511627906976, "SOG model": 90.23255813953489, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 39.06976744186046, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 37.35546437896308, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Unconfirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": 2, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 170 } }, { "id": "8476469", "name": "Joel Armia", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "NJD", "position": "R", "currentGP": 7, "currentSOG": 1.4285714285714286, "priorSOG": 1.373134328358209, "currentTOI": 13.69047619047619, "currentFiveTOI": 11.388095238095238, "ppShare": 0.05093555093555094, "rate": 1.2396631080006961, "fifty": 1.2337138348440333, "inputs": { "Player": "Joel Armia", "Player_ID": "8476469", "Team": "LAK", "Opponent": "NJD", "Position": "R", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.0903513295423484, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 0.9792150911711244, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 7, "Prior_GP": 67, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 6.021325527911353, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.280836770270845, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 15.307305759567067, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 11.481965174129353, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 11.388095238095238, "Current_PP_Share": 0.05093555093555094, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.1509918883160832, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 98.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1924.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 4, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.575661375661376, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.37041100856650655, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.2330638330638331, "Other_State_SOG": 0.18976545842217485, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9357862710703578, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.373134328358209, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/los-angeles-kings/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:42.477100+00:00", "priorGP": 67, "currentTotalSOG": 10.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.23333333333333334, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.43 SOG/game in 7 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 7 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.857, "currentIXG": 0.12242857142857143, "priorTOI": 14.061940298507462, "priorPPTOI": 0.6435323383084577, "deploymentChange": -0.3714641080312724, "ppTOIChange": -0.41019900497512435, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020191", "date": "20251101", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 13.55 }, { "gameId": "2024020876", "date": "20250208", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 14.1 }, { "gameId": "2024020779", "date": "20250125", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 13.883333333333333 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 1.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "NJD", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 234.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 26.0, "mostAllowedRank": 22, "fiveSogAllowed60": 24.374647357532442, "pkSogAllowed60": 52.512155591572125, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 37.111111111111114, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "L": 41.0, "D": 63.0, "C": 78.0, "R": 52.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 8.666666666666666, "L": 4.555555555555555, "R": 5.777777777777778, "D": 7.0 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 25.0, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 25.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 26.0, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.777777777777778, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8474596", "team": "NJD", "name": "Jake Allen", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 6, "savePct": 0.8834355828220859, "gaa": 3.1496062992125986, "gsax": -3.708, "goalsAllowed": 19.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 15.292, "shotsAgainst": 163.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0365218981504722, "factor": 1.0365218981504722, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T17:31:56.013Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.12369619767665055, "goalHistoryGoals": 25.0, "goalHistoryShots": 206.0, "goalExpected": 0.17799587568580363, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.18449662292880467, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.163054124690595, "goalProbability": 0.168477251993817, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.5423127303222003, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 7, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.438976128846707, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 6.021325527911353, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 11.388095238095238, "Current_PP_Share": 0.05093555093555094, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.575661375661376, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.2330638330638331, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.2857142857142857, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9778442581785296, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0469775686735434, "Position_Factor": 1.0147397181478286, "Input_GP": 7, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 98.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1924.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.280836770270845, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 15.307305759567067, "Prior_5v5_Min": 11.700995024875622, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.1509918883160832, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0348001150417026, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.382352941176471, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0348001150417026, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0469775686735434, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 6.021325527911353, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 1.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 0.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020191", "date": "20251101", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 13.55 }, { "gameId": "2024020876", "date": "20250208", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 14.1 }, { "gameId": "2024020779", "date": "20250125", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 13.883333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020212", "date": "20241107", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 12.1 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 108, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 14, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8474596", "goalieName": "Jake Allen", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8476469", "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 2, "recordedAttempts": 5, "log": [ { "gameId": "2024020876", "date": "20250208", "season": 2024, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 4 }, { "gameId": "2024020779", "date": "20250125", "season": 2024, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8474596", "goalieName": "Jake Allen", "opponent": "LAK", "games": 5, "availableGames": 17, "shotsAgainst": 151.0, "goalsAgainst": 16.0, "savePct": 0.8940397350993378, "gaa": 3.2597623089983023, "gsax": 1.5839999999999996, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021050", "date": "20260314", "goalieTeam": "NJD", "opponent": "LAK", "shotsAgainst": 31.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.558 }, { "gameId": "2024020602", "date": "20250101", "goalieTeam": "NJD", "opponent": "LAK", "shotsAgainst": 23.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3431.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.828 }, { "gameId": "2023020309", "date": "20231125", "goalieTeam": "MTL", "opponent": "LAK", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.339 }, { "gameId": "2022020982", "date": "20230302", "goalieTeam": "MTL", "opponent": "LAK", "shotsAgainst": 33.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3509.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.849 }, { "gameId": "2022020439", "date": "20221210", "goalieTeam": "MTL", "opponent": "LAK", "shotsAgainst": 34.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3530.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.01 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.438976128846707, "adjustedSOG": 1.438976128846707, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.4683429886190886, "adjustedSOG": 1.438976128846707, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.12369619767665055, "goalHistoryGoals": 25.0, "goalHistoryShots": 206.0, "goalExpected": 0.18162844457735064, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.18162844457735064, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.16608887293801525, "goalProbability": 0.16608887293801525, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12851036489055068, "modelSOG": 1.438976128846707, "historyGames": 155, "seasonGames": { "2024": 81, "2025": 67, "2026": 7 }, "historyGoals": 25.0, "historyShots": 206.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.12135922330097088, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.12369619767665055, "goalieFactor": 1.0365218981504722, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 50.23560250448705, "btb": { "id": "8476469", "name": "Joel Armia", "score": 50.23560250448705, "components": { "Goal model": 60.69767441860465, "SOG model": 54.41860465116279, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 41.86046511627907, "Goalie": 55.44117647058823, "Team H2H": 38.02685565087654, "Goalie H2H": 49.40944881889764 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": 3, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 202 } }, { "id": "8476979", "name": "Erik Gustafsson", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "NJD", "position": "D", "currentGP": 5, "currentSOG": 1.2, "priorSOG": 1.5, "currentTOI": 17.216666666666665, "currentFiveTOI": 15.0, "ppShare": 0.29154078549848944, "rate": 1.4010586057780392, "fifty": 1.3184106440312169, "inputs": { "Player": "Erik Gustafsson", "Player_ID": "8476979", "Team": "LAK", "Opponent": "NJD", "Position": "D", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.2248169012262358, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.1080523200662276, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 5, "Prior_GP": 2, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.8135593220338984, "Current_PP_SOG60": 9.32642487046632, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 26.470588235294116, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 15.219999999999999, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 15.0, "Current_PP_Share": 0.29154078549848944, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.21390702563355, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 386.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1324.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 2, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.575661375661376, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 1.2274241726970043, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 1.3339919116354164, "Other_State_SOG": 0.0, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9357862710703578, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.5, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/los-angeles-kings/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:42.497048+00:00", "priorGP": 2, "currentTotalSOG": 6.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.2866666666666666, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.20 SOG/game in 5 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 5 games. 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MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2024020111", "date": "20241024", "team": "DET", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 12.25 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. 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Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8474596", "goalieName": "Jake Allen", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8476979", "goals": 1, "sog": 2, "shootingPct": 0.5, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 4, "log": [ { "gameId": "2022020580", "date": "20221231", "season": 2022, "goals": 1, "sog": 2, "attempts": 4 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8474596", "goalieName": "Jake Allen", "opponent": "LAK", "games": 5, "availableGames": 17, "shotsAgainst": 151.0, "goalsAgainst": 16.0, "savePct": 0.8940397350993378, "gaa": 3.2597623089983023, "gsax": 1.5839999999999996, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021050", "date": "20260314", "goalieTeam": "NJD", "opponent": "LAK", "shotsAgainst": 31.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.558 }, { "gameId": "2024020602", "date": "20250101", "goalieTeam": "NJD", "opponent": "LAK", "shotsAgainst": 23.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3431.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.828 }, { "gameId": "2023020309", "date": "20231125", "goalieTeam": "MTL", "opponent": "LAK", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.339 }, { "gameId": "2022020982", "date": "20230302", "goalieTeam": "MTL", "opponent": "LAK", "shotsAgainst": 33.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3509.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.849 }, { "gameId": "2022020439", "date": "20221210", "goalieTeam": "MTL", "opponent": "LAK", "shotsAgainst": 34.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3530.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.01 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.1708664709563474, "adjustedSOG": 1.1708664709563474, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.1947617050574975, "adjustedSOG": 1.1708664709563474, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.04983225358630264, "goalHistoryGoals": 3.0, "goalHistoryShots": 76.0, "goalExpected": 0.05953766826162853, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.05953766826162853, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.057799958114905306, "goalProbability": 0.057799958114905306, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05770476631189264, "modelSOG": 1.1708664709563474, "historyGames": 67, "seasonGames": { "2024": 60, "2025": 2, "2026": 5 }, "historyGoals": 3.0, "historyShots": 76.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.039473684210526314, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.04983225358630264, "goalieFactor": 1.0365218981504722, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 42.1618118645552, "btb": { "id": "8476979", "name": "Erik Gustafsson", "score": 42.1618118645552, "components": { "Goal model": 19.302325581395348, "SOG model": 39.06976744186046, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 32.55813953488372, "Goalie": 55.44117647058823, "Team H2H": 49.098029907429385, "Goalie H2H": 51.83222289521502 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 1, "goalieH2HShots": 2, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 314 } }, { "id": "8479968", "name": "Vinni Lettieri", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "EDM", "position": "R", "currentGP": 2, "currentSOG": 0.5, "priorSOG": null, "currentTOI": 9.058333333333334, "currentFiveTOI": 7.425, "ppShare": 0.27844311377245506, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/toronto-maple-leafs/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:42.500123+00:00", "priorGP": null, "currentTotalSOG": 1.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.55, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.50 SOG/game in 2 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 2 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.186, "currentIXG": 0.093, "priorTOI": null, "priorPPTOI": null, "deploymentChange": null, "ppTOIChange": null, "h2hLog": [], "h2hGames": 0, "h2hAvailableGames": 0, "h2hSOG": null, "opponentDefense": { "team": "EDM", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 239.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 26.555555555555557, "mostAllowedRank": 18, "fiveSogAllowed60": 25.09786377362711, "pkSogAllowed60": 57.79388917659244, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 40.111111111111114, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 74.0, "C": 64.0, "L": 57.0, "R": 44.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.111111111111111, "L": 6.333333333333333, "R": 4.888888888888889, "D": 8.222222222222221 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 28.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 24.5, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 26.555555555555557, "oppPosSogAllowed": 4.888888888888889, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8477465", "team": "EDM", "name": "Tristan Jarry", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 3, "savePct": 0.8732394366197183, "gaa": 2.974387221151198, "gsax": -2.739, "goalsAllowed": 9.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 6.261, "shotsAgainst": 71.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0280169850571896, "factor": 1.0280169850571896, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-23T18:50:20.460Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.10361516295136826, "goalHistoryGoals": 3.0, "goalHistoryShots": 53.0, "goalExpected": 0.048566515866655995, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.04992720321597186, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.047406025415312185, "goalProbability": 0.04870132653578906, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.12953011204768772, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 2, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 0.46872016105838366, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.040404040404041, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 7.425, "Current_PP_Share": 0.27844311377245506, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.3053872053872055, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.198805419464102, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9913228889134689, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0841268017286898, "Position_Factor": 0.9918962386417378, "Input_GP": 2, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 186.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 668.0, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9565717572620075, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.382352941176471, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9565717572620075, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0841268017286898, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 4.040404040404041, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 1, "playerPriorWeight": 0, "currentSeasonOnly": true }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 1, "playerPriorWeight": 0, "currentSeasonOnly": true }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477465", "goalieName": "Tristan Jarry", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8479968", "goals": 0, "sog": 5, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 7, "log": [ { "gameId": "2024021278", "date": "20250413", "season": 2024, "goals": 0, "sog": 5, "attempts": 7 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477465", "goalieName": "Tristan Jarry", "opponent": "TOR", "games": 5, "availableGames": 13, "shotsAgainst": 102.0, "goalsAgainst": 16.0, "savePct": 0.8431372549019608, "gaa": 4.100811618966254, "gsax": -2.944, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020499", "date": "20251213", "goalieTeam": "EDM", "opponent": "TOR", "shotsAgainst": 28.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.854 }, { "gameId": "2025020396", "date": "20251129", "goalieTeam": "PIT", "opponent": "TOR", "shotsAgainst": 13.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 2107.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.626 }, { "gameId": "2025020199", "date": "20251103", "goalieTeam": "PIT", "opponent": "TOR", "shotsAgainst": 20.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3452.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.296 }, { "gameId": "2024020433", "date": "20241207", "goalieTeam": "PIT", "opponent": "TOR", "shotsAgainst": 27.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3571.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.846 }, { "gameId": "2023020466", "date": "20231216", "goalieTeam": "PIT", "opponent": "TOR", "shotsAgainst": 14.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 1316.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.434 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.46872016105838366, "adjustedSOG": 0.46872016105838366, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.47828587863100375, "adjustedSOG": 0.46872016105838366, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.10361516295136826, "goalHistoryGoals": 3.0, "goalHistoryShots": 53.0, "goalExpected": 0.04955766925168979, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.05094612573058353, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.04834972440530409, "goalProbability": 0.04967013251936937, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.132040811406528 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12853119931559343, "modelSOG": 0.46872016105838366, "historyGames": 28, "seasonGames": { "2024": 26, "2026": 2 }, "historyGoals": 3.0, "historyShots": 53.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.05660377358490566, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.10361516295136826, "goalieFactor": 1.0280169850571896, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 44.965573336257975, "btb": { "id": "8479968", "name": "Vinni Lettieri", "score": 44.965573336257975, "components": { "Goal model": 15.116279069767442, "SOG model": 6.046511627906977, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 51.86046511627907, "Goalie": 92.20588235294117, "Team H2H": 50.0, "Goalie H2H": 47.33357193987115 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Team H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 0, "goalieH2HShots": 5, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 273 } }, { "id": "8477498", "name": "Darnell Nurse", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "BOS", "position": "D", "currentGP": 9, "currentSOG": 2.2222222222222223, "priorSOG": 2, "currentTOI": 21.049999999999997, "currentFiveTOI": 17.587037037037035, "ppShare": 0.0010369858278603526, "rate": 1.9680461032469447, "fifty": 2.026291100120171, "inputs": { "Player": "Darnell Nurse", "Player_ID": "8477498", "Team": "SJS", "Opponent": "BOS", "Position": "D", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.9556761399287887, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.8712064041750256, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 9, "Prior_GP": 82, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 6.823207328630094, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.864267452021101, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 7.3319755600814664, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 17.963182023486898, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 17.587037037037035, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0010369858278603526, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.04900737605924802, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 3.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2893.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 5, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.0425, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.07779620885951753, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.005229001036985828, "Other_State_SOG": 0.12100271002710027, "Environment_Proxy": 1.0253180054689388, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 2, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:42.520965+00:00", "priorGP": 82, "currentTotalSOG": 20.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.005555555555555556, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.22 SOG/game in 9 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 9 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.926, "currentIXG": 0.10288888888888889, "priorTOI": 20.978455284552847, "priorPPTOI": 0.19959349593495934, "deploymentChange": 0.0715447154471498, "ppTOIChange": -0.19403794037940378, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2026020105", "date": "20261013", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 17.65 }, { "gameId": "2025020631", "date": "20251231", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 21.45 }, { "gameId": "2025020534", "date": "20251218", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 21.383333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020641", "date": "20250107", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 23.833333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2024020518", "date": "20241219", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 20.633333333333333 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 5, "h2hSOG": 1.8, "opponentDefense": { "team": "BOS", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 280.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 28.0, "mostAllowedRank": 11, "fiveSogAllowed60": 26.539776154413243, "pkSogAllowed60": 48.89206576125804, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 42.4, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 68.0, "R": 50.0, "L": 68.0, "C": 94.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.4, "L": 6.8, "R": 5.0, "D": 6.8 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 26.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 25.0, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 28.0, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.8, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8480280", "team": "BOS", "name": "Jeremy Swayman", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 8, "savePct": 0.9279279279279279, "gaa": 1.976189659313137, "gsax": 7.695, "goalsAllowed": 16.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 23.695, "shotsAgainst": 222.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9412127550171275, "factor": 0.9412127550171275, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T14:59:19.712Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.03980290746435561, "goalHistoryGoals": 13.0, "goalHistoryShots": 372.0, "goalExpected": 0.08378066619000415, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.07885543164186412, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.0803670594271428, "goalProbability": 0.07582647896349691, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.4540580463645888, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 9, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 2.104888098062475, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 6.823207328630094, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 17.587037037037035, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0010369858278603526, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.0425, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.005229001036985828, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.2222222222222222, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0194233133624404, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.013580746919003, "Position_Factor": 0.9875428952719878, "Input_GP": 9, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 3.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2893.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.864267452021101, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 7.3319755600814664, "Prior_5v5_Min": 18.840853658536584, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.04900737605924802, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9628113879003559, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.34640522875817, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9628113879003559, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.013580746919003, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 6.823207328630094, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.0 }, { "season": "2026", "label": "2026–27", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 2.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2026020105", "date": "20261013", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 17.65 }, { "gameId": "2025020631", "date": "20251231", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 21.45 }, { "gameId": "2025020534", "date": "20251218", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 21.383333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020641", "date": "20250107", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 23.833333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2024020518", "date": "20241219", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 20.633333333333333 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Reviewed October22 projected lineup and coach reports", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 221, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480280", "goalieName": "Jeremy Swayman", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8477498", "goals": 1, "sog": 16, "shootingPct": 0.0625, "gamesWithAttempts": 8, "recordedAttempts": 20, "log": [ { "gameId": "2026020105", "date": "20261013", "season": 2026, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2 }, { "gameId": "2025020631", "date": "20251231", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2025020534", "date": "20251218", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2 }, { "gameId": "2024020641", "date": "20250107", "season": 2024, "goals": 0, "sog": 4, "attempts": 5 }, { "gameId": "2024020518", "date": "20241219", "season": 2024, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2023020888", "date": "20240221", "season": 2023, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 3 }, { "gameId": "2022021026", "date": "20230309", "season": 2022, "goals": 1, "sog": 5, "attempts": 5 }, { "gameId": "2022020954", "date": "20230227", "season": 2022, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480280", "goalieName": "Jeremy Swayman", "opponent": "SJS", "games": 5, "availableGames": 6, "shotsAgainst": 123.0, "goalsAgainst": 9.0, "savePct": 0.926829268292683, "gaa": 2.2632020117351215, "gsax": 2.58, "log": [ { "gameId": "2026020105", "date": "20261013", "goalieTeam": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "shotsAgainst": 38.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.146 }, { "gameId": "2025021027", "date": "20260312", "goalieTeam": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "shotsAgainst": 28.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3406.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.91 }, { "gameId": "2025020351", "date": "20251123", "goalieTeam": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3588.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.577 }, { "gameId": "2023020340", "date": "20231130", "goalieTeam": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "shotsAgainst": 26.0, "goalsAgainst": 0.0, "seconds": 3574.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.886 }, { "gameId": "2022020748", "date": "20230122", "goalieTeam": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "shotsAgainst": 1.0, "goalsAgainst": 0.0, "seconds": 148.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 0.061 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 2.104888098062475, "adjustedSOG": 2.104888098062475, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 2.1478449980229337, "adjustedSOG": 2.104888098062475, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.03980290746435561, "goalHistoryGoals": 13.0, "goalHistoryShots": 372.0, "goalExpected": 0.08549047570408588, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.08046472616516748, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.08193811309440233, "goalProbability": 0.0773125502655566, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.4625562828845728 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05786972323175846, "modelSOG": 2.104888098062475, "historyGames": 167, "seasonGames": { "2024": 76, "2025": 82, "2026": 9 }, "historyGoals": 13.0, "historyShots": 372.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.03494623655913978, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.03980290746435561, "goalieFactor": 0.9412127550171275, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 42.77452625210239, "btb": { "id": "8477498", "name": "Darnell Nurse", "score": 42.77452625210239, "components": { "Goal model": 30.232558139534884, "SOG model": 78.83720930232558, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 28.6046511627907, "Goalie": 34.26470588235294, "Team H2H": 36.90165361183638, "Goalie H2H": 59.639704127893104 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 5, "goalieH2HShots": 16, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 309 } }, { "id": "8480003", "name": "Jesper Boqvist", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "LAK", "position": "R", "currentGP": 7, "currentSOG": 1.8571428571428572, "priorSOG": 0.8767123287671232, "currentTOI": 11.604761904761904, "currentFiveTOI": 10.638095238095238, "ppShare": 0.075045759609518, "rate": 0.9515022976593077, "fifty": 1.200024466080334, "inputs": { "Player": "Jesper Boqvist", "Player_ID": "8480003", "Team": "NJD", "Opponent": "LAK", "Position": "C", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.0014299118602963, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.7007475680472426, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 7, "Prior_GP": 73, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 8.863025962399284, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.516254623321005, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 5.493387589013225, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 10.613310502283102, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 10.638095238095238, "Current_PP_Share": 0.075045759609518, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.08779985117344657, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 123.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1639.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 2, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.972354497354498, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.3921794796660428, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.37315412030177136, "Other_State_SOG": 0.06555772994129158, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9908219918860978, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 0.8767123287671232, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-jersey-devils/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:42.540572+00:00", "priorGP": 73, "currentTotalSOG": 13.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.2928571428571428, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.86 SOG/game in 7 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 7 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 2.129, "currentIXG": 0.30414285714285716, "priorTOI": 11.828995433789954, "priorPPTOI": 0.44885844748858444, "deploymentChange": -0.22423352902804972, "ppTOIChange": -0.15600130463144163, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020529", "date": "20251217", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 10.716666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020226", "date": "20251106", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 12.683333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020808", "date": "20250129", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 9.45 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 1.3333333333333333, "opponentDefense": { "team": "LAK", "games": 7, "sogAllowedTotal": 193.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.571428571428573, "mostAllowedRank": 14, "fiveSogAllowed60": 25.227874154660395, "pkSogAllowed60": 57.61396702230844, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 39.142857142857146, "positionUnassignedSOG": 1.0, "positionTotals": { "C": 86.0, "D": 47.0, "R": 28.0, "L": 31.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 12.285714285714286, "L": 4.428571428571429, "R": 4.0, "D": 6.714285714285714 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 27.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 29.5, "positionSourceDifference": 1.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.571428571428573, "oppPosSogAllowed": 4.0, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8476341", "team": "LAK", "name": "Anton Forsberg", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 3, "savePct": 0.8833333333333333, "gaa": 2.6313041662315966, "gsax": -2.1049999999999995, "goalsAllowed": 7.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.8950000000000005, "shotsAgainst": 60.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0218332511814823, "factor": 1.0218332511814823, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T19:00:24.293Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.12064990151102922, "goalHistoryGoals": 19.0, "goalHistoryShots": 164.0, "goalExpected": 0.20401395845351245, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.20846824645295647, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.18454901132686535, "goalProbability": 0.18817318732584196, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.3624175998976603, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 7, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.6909583505533363, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 8.863025962399284, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 10.638095238095238, "Current_PP_Share": 0.075045759609518, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.972354497354498, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.37315412030177136, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.2857142857142857, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9946407827573338, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.085978140946376, "Position_Factor": 0.9726288799729524, "Input_GP": 7, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 123.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1639.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.516254623321005, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 5.493387589013225, "Prior_5v5_Min": 10.555479452054794, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.08779985117344657, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.8942462230793957, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.382352941176471, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.8942462230793957, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.085978140946376, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 8.863025962399284, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020529", "date": "20251217", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 10.716666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020226", "date": "20251106", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 12.683333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020808", "date": "20250129", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 9.45 }, { "gameId": "2024020760", "date": "20250122", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 13.166666666666666 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 101, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476341", "goalieName": "Anton Forsberg", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8480003", "goals": 1, "sog": 12, "shootingPct": 0.08333333333333333, "gamesWithAttempts": 7, "recordedAttempts": 17, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020529", "date": "20251217", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 3 }, { "gameId": "2025020226", "date": "20251106", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 3 }, { "gameId": "2024021210", "date": "20250405", "season": 2024, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2 }, { "gameId": "2023021295", "date": "20240416", "season": 2023, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2 }, { "gameId": "2022020274", "date": "20221119", "season": 2022, "goals": 1, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2022020213", "date": "20221110", "season": 2022, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 4 }, { "gameId": "2021021274", "date": "20220426", "season": 2021, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476341", "goalieName": "Anton Forsberg", "opponent": "NJD", "games": 5, "availableGames": 11, "shotsAgainst": 115.0, "goalsAgainst": 15.0, "savePct": 0.8695652173913043, "gaa": 4.18280402788536, "gsax": -4.362, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021050", "date": "20260314", "goalieTeam": "LAK", "opponent": "NJD", "shotsAgainst": 27.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3466.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.948 }, { "gameId": "2024020737", "date": "20250119", "goalieTeam": "OTT", "opponent": "NJD", "shotsAgainst": 26.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.295 }, { "gameId": "2024020062", "date": "20241017", "goalieTeam": "OTT", "opponent": "NJD", "shotsAgainst": 35.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3470.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.298 }, { "gameId": "2023021224", "date": "20240406", "goalieTeam": "OTT", "opponent": "NJD", "shotsAgainst": 9.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 994.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 0.874 }, { "gameId": "2022020274", "date": "20221119", "goalieTeam": "OTT", "opponent": "NJD", "shotsAgainst": 18.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 1380.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.223 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.6909583505533363, "adjustedSOG": 1.6909583505533363, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.6909583505533363, "adjustedSOG": 1.6909583505533363, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.12064990151102922, "goalHistoryGoals": 19.0, "goalHistoryShots": 164.0, "goalExpected": 0.20401395845351245, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.20401395845351245, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.18454901132686535, "goalProbability": 0.18454901132686535, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12851573998911714, "modelSOG": 1.6909583505533363, "historyGames": 158, "seasonGames": { "2024": 78, "2025": 73, "2026": 7 }, "historyGoals": 19.0, "historyShots": 164.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.11585365853658537, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.12064990151102922, "goalieFactor": 1.0218332511814823, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 58.645888962473464, "btb": { "id": "8480003", "name": "Jesper Boqvist", "score": 58.645888962473464, "components": { "Goal model": 68.13953488372093, "SOG model": 64.65116279069767, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 82.32558139534883, "Goalie": 76.61764705882354, "Team H2H": 41.45841104065647, "Goalie H2H": 46.72339344678689 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": 12, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 103 } }, { "id": "8477497", "name": "Sean Monahan", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "VGK", "position": "C", "currentGP": 8, "currentSOG": 1.375, "priorSOG": 1.6794871794871795, "currentTOI": 16.633333333333333, "currentFiveTOI": 12.352083333333333, "ppShare": 0.29144494474007365, "rate": 1.4901122202585113, "fifty": 1.3742068023495326, "inputs": { "Player": "Sean Monahan", "Player_ID": "8477497", "Team": "CBJ", "Opponent": "VGK", "Position": "C", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.5053803013532039, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.4717555959409003, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 8, "Prior_GP": 78, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.250295159386068, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.88186258982011, "Current_PP_SOG60": 5.056179775280899, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 3.7443661157979893, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 12.49139423076923, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 12.352083333333333, "Current_PP_Share": 0.29144494474007365, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.426856721399446, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 712.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2443.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 4, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.052367424242425, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 1.3456634818027773, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 1.181042000024808, "Other_State_SOG": 0.3028846153846153, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9217353117054976, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.6794871794871795, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:42.566769+00:00", "priorGP": 78, "currentTotalSOG": 11.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.4833333333333334, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.38 SOG/game in 8 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 8 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 2.44, "currentIXG": 0.305, "priorTOI": 17.124786324786324, "priorPPTOI": 1.848931623931624, "deploymentChange": -0.4914529914529915, "ppTOIChange": -0.36559829059829063, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020692", "date": "20260108", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 17.183333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020502", "date": "20251213", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 17.966666666666665 } ], "h2hGames": 2, "h2hAvailableGames": 2, "h2hSOG": 1.5, "opponentDefense": { "team": "VGK", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 275.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 25.0, "mostAllowedRank": 27, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.585792714368043, "pkSogAllowed60": 47.03517587939699, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 38.72727272727273, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 59.0, "C": 80.0, "R": 61.0, "L": 75.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.2727272727272725, "L": 6.818181818181818, "R": 5.545454545454546, "D": 5.363636363636363 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 26.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 25.75, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 25.0, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.2727272727272725, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8479394", "team": "VGK", "name": "Carter Hart", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.8876404494382022, "gaa": 2.8716148845371516, "gsax": -1.5090000000000003, "goalsAllowed": 20.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 18.491, "shotsAgainst": 178.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.017200797231895, "factor": 1.017200797231895, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T22:33:02.238Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.12392226239650724, "goalHistoryGoals": 33.0, "goalHistoryShots": 270.0, "goalExpected": 0.15415298172867228, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.1568045359100792, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.1428591159132268, "goalProbability": 0.14512886090274107, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.22697449895142663, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 8, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.2439490592532718, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.250295159386068, "Current_PP_SOG60": 5.056179775280899, "Current_5v5_Min": 12.352083333333333, "Current_PP_Share": 0.29144494474007365, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.052367424242425, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.181042000024808, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.375, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9589471960166247, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9956874166464801, "Position_Factor": 0.9789803456008442, "Input_GP": 8, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 712.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2443.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.88186258982011, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 3.7443661157979893, "Prior_5v5_Min": 12.81645299145299, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.426856721399446, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.8798311568394671, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.437908496732026, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.8798311568394671, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9956874166464801, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 4.64173881009394, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 5.950413223140496, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020692", "date": "20260108", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 17.183333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020502", "date": "20251213", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 17.966666666666665 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "NHL.com October 20 game-specific projected lineup", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. 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Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480843", "goalieName": "Lukas Dostal", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8478439", "goals": 2, "sog": 16, "shootingPct": 0.125, "gamesWithAttempts": 5, "recordedAttempts": 19, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021082", "date": "20260318", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 3 }, { "gameId": "2025020670", "date": "20260106", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 5, "attempts": 6 }, { "gameId": "2024020568", "date": "20241228", "season": 2024, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2 }, { "gameId": "2023020208", "date": "20231110", "season": 2023, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2 }, { "gameId": "2023020117", "date": "20231028", "season": 2023, "goals": 2, "sog": 6, "attempts": 6 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480843", "goalieName": "Lukas Dostal", "opponent": "PHI", "games": 5, "availableGames": 5, "shotsAgainst": 155.0, "goalsAgainst": 18.0, "savePct": 0.8838709677419355, "gaa": 3.646595385481148, "gsax": -2.507999999999999, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021082", "date": "20260318", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 28.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3704.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.611 }, { "gameId": "2025020670", "date": "20260106", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 38.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3560.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.171 }, { "gameId": "2024020568", "date": "20241228", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3472.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.781 }, { "gameId": "2023020208", "date": "20231110", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 35.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3450.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.281 }, { "gameId": "2023020117", "date": "20231028", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3584.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.648 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.6366631447685691, "adjustedSOG": 1.6366631447685691, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.6366631447685691, "adjustedSOG": 1.6366631447685691, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.1373033585647042, "goalHistoryGoals": 51.0, "goalHistoryShots": 365.0, "goalExpected": 0.2247193466157952, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.2247193466157952, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.20125964351045067, "goalProbability": 0.20125964351045067, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12846061732587444, "modelSOG": 1.6366631447685691, "historyGames": 164, "seasonGames": { "2024": 82, "2025": 77, "2026": 5 }, "historyGoals": 51.0, "historyShots": 365.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.13972602739726028, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.1373033585647042, "goalieFactor": 0.9815060369171769, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8482175", "name": "JJ Peterka", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "position": "R", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 1.6, "priorSOG": 1.951219512195122, "currentTOI": 16.75166666666667, "currentFiveTOI": 14.303333333333333, "ppShare": 0.43080442241707967, "rate": 2.1127151771953607, "fifty": 1.9016045267053088, "inputs": { "Player": "JJ Peterka", "Player_ID": "8482175", "Team": "BOS", "Opponent": "SJS", "Position": "R", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 2.014781431556371, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.84188915386308, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 10, "Prior_GP": 82, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.033791656956421, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 7.206085138561452, "Current_PP_SOG60": 3.185840707964602, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 6.741573033707865, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 14.12471138211382, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 14.303333333333333, "Current_PP_Share": 0.43080442241707967, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.3874453701174543, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1130.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2623.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 6, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.950833333333334, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 2.0684418622218734, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 2.1328408946498922, "Other_State_SOG": 0.1178048780487805, "Environment_Proxy": 1.0796680236682055, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.951219512195122, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/boston-bruins/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:42.610146+00:00", "priorGP": 82, "currentTotalSOG": 16.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.8833333333333333, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.60 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 2.384, "currentIXG": 0.2384, "priorTOI": 15.984349593495935, "priorPPTOI": 1.8451219512195123, "deploymentChange": 0.7673170731707337, "ppTOIChange": 0.038211382113821024, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2026020105", "date": "20261013", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 16.266666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020410", "date": "20251201", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 21.416666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2025020314", "date": "20251118", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 2.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 13.95 }, { "gameId": "2025020075", "date": "20251017", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 17.25 }, { "gameId": "2024020974", "date": "20250304", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 19.683333333333334 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 6, "h2hSOG": 2.6, "opponentDefense": { "team": "SJS", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 286.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 28.6, "mostAllowedRank": 10, "fiveSogAllowed60": 25.210423540502322, "pkSogAllowed60": 49.90958408679928, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 47.8, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 86.0, "C": 94.0, "R": 53.0, "L": 53.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.4, "L": 5.3, "R": 5.3, "D": 8.6 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 30.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 29.833333333333332, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 28.6, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.3, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8477968", "team": "SJS", "name": "Alex Nedeljkovic", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 4, "savePct": 0.9173553719008265, "gaa": 2.372479240806643, "gsax": 4.638, "goalsAllowed": 10.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 14.638, "shotsAgainst": 121.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9618500831522029, "factor": 0.9618500831522029, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T16:06:01.887Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.15109276434532426, "goalHistoryGoals": 55.0, "goalHistoryShots": 349.0, "goalExpected": 0.24280786223722028, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.23354476248287895, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.2155777835770041, "goalProbability": 0.20827784450237366, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.7299939074630446, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.6070118465916747, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.033791656956421, "Current_PP_SOG60": 3.185840707964602, "Current_5v5_Min": 14.303333333333333, "Current_PP_Share": 0.43080442241707967, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.950833333333334, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 2.1328408946498922, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.3, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9930883597207428, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0259958714356598, "Position_Factor": 0.9922140700829225, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1130.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2623.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 7.206085138561452, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 6.741573033707865, "Prior_5v5_Min": 13.707926829268292, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.3874453701174543, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9923497267759562, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.382352941176471, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9923497267759562, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0259958714356598, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.033791656956421, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 3.185840707964602, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 3.3333333333333335 }, { "season": "2026", "label": "2026–27", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 1.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2026020105", "date": "20261013", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 16.266666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020410", "date": "20251201", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 21.416666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2025020314", "date": "20251118", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 2.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 13.95 }, { "gameId": "2025020075", "date": "20251017", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 17.25 }, { "gameId": "2024020974", "date": "20250304", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 19.683333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020331", "date": "20241123", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 16.583333333333332 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "ppAssignmentSourceDate": "2026-10-12T22:24:39.463Z", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 205, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 23, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477968", "goalieName": "Alex Nedeljkovic", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8482175", "goals": 0, "sog": 11, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 5, "recordedAttempts": 14, "log": [ { "gameId": "2024021143", "date": "20250327", "season": 2024, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2 }, { "gameId": "2024020720", "date": "20250117", "season": 2024, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 5 }, { "gameId": "2023020301", "date": "20231124", "season": 2023, "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 3 }, { "gameId": "2022020361", "date": "20221130", "season": 2022, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2022020144", "date": "20221031", "season": 2022, "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 3 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477968", "goalieName": "Alex Nedeljkovic", "opponent": "BOS", "games": 5, "availableGames": 8, "shotsAgainst": 134.0, "goalsAgainst": 17.0, "savePct": 0.8731343283582089, "gaa": 3.7850207186591627, "gsax": -3.2609999999999997, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021027", "date": "20260312", "goalieTeam": "SJS", "opponent": "BOS", "shotsAgainst": 41.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.661 }, { "gameId": "2024020952", "date": "20250301", "goalieTeam": "PIT", "opponent": "BOS", "shotsAgainst": 25.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3474.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.566 }, { "gameId": "2023021279", "date": "20240413", "goalieTeam": "PIT", "opponent": "BOS", "shotsAgainst": 16.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 1895.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.22 }, { "gameId": "2023021012", "date": "20240309", "goalieTeam": "PIT", "opponent": "BOS", "shotsAgainst": 23.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.955 }, { "gameId": "2023020589", "date": "20240104", "goalieTeam": "PIT", "opponent": "BOS", "shotsAgainst": 29.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.337 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.6070118465916747, "adjustedSOG": 1.6070118465916747, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.6070118465916747, "adjustedSOG": 1.6070118465916747, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.15109276434532426, "goalHistoryGoals": 55.0, "goalHistoryShots": 349.0, "goalExpected": 0.24280786223722028, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.24280786223722028, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.2155777835770041, "goalProbability": 0.2155777835770041, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1284065119105059, "modelSOG": 1.6070118465916747, "historyGames": 169, "seasonGames": { "2024": 77, "2025": 82, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 55.0, "historyShots": 349.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.15759312320916904, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.15109276434532426, "goalieFactor": 0.9618500831522029, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 64.39896529738922, "btb": { "id": "8482175", "name": "JJ Peterka", "score": 64.39896529738922, "components": { "Goal model": 76.04651162790698, "SOG model": 60.69767441860465, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 73.48837209302326, "Goalie": 97.5, "Team H2H": 65.91057441253264, "Goalie H2H": 41.69355879695366 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 6, "goalieH2HShots": 11, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 41 } }, { "id": "8482121", "name": "Dylan Peterson", "team": "STL", "opponent": "CAR", "position": "R", "currentGP": 3, "currentSOG": 0.3333333333333333, "priorSOG": null, "currentTOI": 9.005555555555555, "currentFiveTOI": 8.994444444444445, "ppShare": 0.001943634596695821, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/st-louis-blues/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:42.612941+00:00", "priorGP": null, "currentTotalSOG": 1.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.011111111111111112, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.33 SOG/game in 3 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 3 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.017, "currentIXG": 0.005666666666666667, "priorTOI": null, "priorPPTOI": null, "deploymentChange": null, "ppTOIChange": null, "h2hLog": [], "h2hGames": 0, "h2hAvailableGames": 0, "h2hSOG": null, "opponentDefense": { "team": "CAR", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 246.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 22.363636363636363, "mostAllowedRank": 31, "fiveSogAllowed60": 21.75191064079953, "pkSogAllowed60": 32.87187039764359, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 33.09090909090909, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 77.0, "R": 66.0, "D": 59.0, "L": 44.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.0, "L": 4.0, "R": 6.0, "D": 5.363636363636363 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 23.0, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 7, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 22.428571428571427, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 22.363636363636363, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.0, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8481611", "team": "CAR", "name": "Pyotr Kochetkov", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 6, "savePct": 0.8991596638655462, "gaa": 1.9842910293509715, "gsax": 2.2720000000000002, "goalsAllowed": 12.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 14.272, "shotsAgainst": 119.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9828959307519136, "factor": 0.9828959307519136, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T22:32:34.088Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.12722612649271983, "goalHistoryGoals": 0.0, "goalHistoryShots": 1.0, "goalExpected": 0.04495786619232722, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.04418890373572745, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.04396223750428199, "goalProbability": 0.04322679763124441, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.07354398730375841, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": null, "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 3, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 0.35336976320582875, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.2235948116121063, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 8.994444444444445, "Current_PP_Share": 0.001943634596695821, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.016414141414142, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.00975007607660669, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9235603264096603, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.85, "Position_Factor": 1.0468273008257014, "Input_GP": 3, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1029.0, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0601092896174862, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.382352941176471, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0601092896174862, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.85, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 2.2235948116121063, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 1, "playerPriorWeight": 0, "currentSeasonOnly": true }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 1, "playerPriorWeight": 0, "currentSeasonOnly": true }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481611", "goalieName": "Pyotr Kochetkov", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8482121", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481611", "goalieName": "Pyotr Kochetkov", "opponent": "STL", "games": 3, "availableGames": 3, "shotsAgainst": 60.0, "goalsAgainst": 6.0, "savePct": 0.9, "gaa": 2.610587382160986, "gsax": -0.46099999999999985, "log": [ { "gameId": "2024020284", "date": "20241117", "goalieTeam": "CAR", "opponent": "STL", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3598.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.005 }, { "gameId": "2024020084", "date": "20241019", "goalieTeam": "CAR", "opponent": "STL", "shotsAgainst": 19.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3476.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.804 }, { "gameId": "2022020369", "date": "20221201", "goalieTeam": "CAR", "opponent": "STL", "shotsAgainst": 11.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 1200.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 0.73 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.35336976320582875, "adjustedSOG": 0.35336976320582875, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.35336976320582875, "adjustedSOG": 0.35336976320582875, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.12722612649271983, "goalHistoryGoals": 0.0, "goalHistoryShots": 1.0, "goalExpected": 0.04495786619232722, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.04495786619232722, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.04396223750428199, "goalProbability": 0.04396223750428199, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12849838775764702, "modelSOG": 0.35336976320582875, "historyGames": 3, "seasonGames": { "2026": 3 }, "historyGoals": 0.0, "historyShots": 1.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.0, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.12722612649271983, "goalieFactor": 0.9828959307519136, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8479525", "name": "Ross Colton", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "PIT", "position": "L", "currentGP": 8, "currentSOG": 1.0, "priorSOG": 2.095890410958904, "currentTOI": 12.539583333333333, "currentFiveTOI": 11.745833333333334, "ppShare": 0.12268080272624006, "rate": 2.042278989947856, "fifty": 1.6724064416588784, "inputs": { "Player": "Ross Colton", "Player_ID": "8479525", "Team": "NSH", "Opponent": "PIT", "Position": "C", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.7896200329514962, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.541984000715253, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 8, "Prior_GP": 73, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.469670095778645, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 10.103964897023362, "Current_PP_SOG60": 11.11111111111111, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 8.558692421991084, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 11.687425799086759, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 11.745833333333334, "Current_PP_Share": 0.12268080272624006, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.14024776041457437, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 324.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2641.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 5, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.906041666666667, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.6277323977877088, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.6018771298750474, "Other_State_SOG": 0.036986301369863014, "Environment_Proxy": 1.0227478110844896, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 2.095890410958904, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/nashville-predators/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:42.632075+00:00", "priorGP": 73, "currentTotalSOG": 8.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.675, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.00 SOG/game in 8 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 8 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.9129999999999999, "currentIXG": 0.11412499999999999, "priorTOI": 12.517808219178082, "priorPPTOI": 0.7682648401826484, "deploymentChange": 0.021775114155250463, "ppTOIChange": -0.09326484018264836, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021126", "date": "20260324", "team": "COL", "opponent": "PIT", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 11.833333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020980", "date": "20250304", "team": "COL", "opponent": "PIT", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 12.55 }, { "gameId": "2024020447", "date": "20241210", "team": "COL", "opponent": "PIT", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 14.5 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 3, "h2hSOG": 0.3333333333333333, "opponentDefense": { "team": "PIT", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 279.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.9, "mostAllowedRank": 12, "fiveSogAllowed60": 26.122338261223383, "pkSogAllowed60": 50.11600928074246, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 42.4, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 55.0, "L": 47.0, "D": 70.0, "C": 107.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.7, "L": 4.7, "R": 5.5, "D": 7.0 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 25.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 3, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 28.333333333333332, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.9, "oppPosSogAllowed": 4.7, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8481668", "team": "PIT", "name": "Arturs Silovs", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 6, "savePct": 0.8662420382165605, "gaa": 3.5131744040150563, "gsax": -1.0760000000000005, "goalsAllowed": 21.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 19.924, "shotsAgainst": 157.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0136052553954562, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Likely starter per Daily Faceoff; no Model Goal adjustment until confirmed.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T15:01:09.604Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.10067182474006857, "goalHistoryGoals": 26.0, "goalHistoryShots": 286.0, "goalExpected": 0.09450894049182744, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.09450894049182744, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.09018039964503358, "goalProbability": 0.09018039964503358, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 8, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 0.9387824322827812, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.469670095778645, "Current_PP_SOG60": 11.11111111111111, "Current_5v5_Min": 11.745833333333334, "Current_PP_Share": 0.12268080272624006, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.906041666666667, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.6018771298750474, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.011083778612368, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0249142728068137, "Position_Factor": 0.9882936962452362, "Input_GP": 8, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 324.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2641.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 10.103964897023362, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 8.558692421991084, "Prior_5v5_Min": 11.551141552511416, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.14024776041457437, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9642349903163332, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.062091503267974, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9642349903163332, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0249142728068137, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 4.469670095778645, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 11.11111111111111, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 1.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021126", "date": "20260324", "team": "COL", "opponent": "PIT", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 11.833333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020980", "date": "20250304", "team": "COL", "opponent": "PIT", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 12.55 }, { "gameId": "2024020447", "date": "20241210", "team": "COL", "opponent": "PIT", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 14.5 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 223, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 14, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481668", "goalieName": "Arturs Silovs", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8479525", "goals": 1, "sog": 1, "shootingPct": 1.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 3, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021126", "date": "20260324", "season": 2025, "goals": 1, "sog": 1, "attempts": 3 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481668", "goalieName": "Arturs Silovs", "opponent": "NSH", "games": 2, "availableGames": 2, "shotsAgainst": 62.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "savePct": 0.9193548387096774, "gaa": 2.397123451857771, "gsax": 1.6559999999999997, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020281", "date": "20251114", "goalieTeam": "PIT", "opponent": "NSH", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3644.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.231 }, { "gameId": "2022021010", "date": "20230306", "goalieTeam": "VAN", "opponent": "NSH", "shotsAgainst": 32.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3865.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.425 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.9387824322827812, "adjustedSOG": 0.9387824322827812, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.9579412574314095, "adjustedSOG": 0.9387824322827812, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.10067182474006857, "goalHistoryGoals": 26.0, "goalHistoryShots": 286.0, "goalExpected": 0.09643769437941577, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.09643769437941577, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.09193352651760414, "goalProbability": 0.09193352651760414, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12859324349666462, "modelSOG": 0.9387824322827812, "historyGames": 142, "seasonGames": { "2024": 61, "2025": 73, "2026": 8 }, "historyGoals": 26.0, "historyShots": 286.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.09090909090909091, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.10067182474006857, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 44.886219797568394, "btb": { "id": "8479525", "name": "Ross Colton", "score": 44.886219797568394, "components": { "Goal model": 32.55813953488372, "SOG model": 24.186046511627907, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 35.58139534883721, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 57.381000200843545, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Likely", "h2hGames": 3, "goalieH2HShots": 1, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 274 } }, { "id": "8481606", "name": "Jordan Spence", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "NYR", "position": "D", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 1.0, "priorSOG": 1.4794520547945205, "currentTOI": 22.05, "currentFiveTOI": 18.884999999999998, "ppShare": 0.07285078472710237, "rate": 1.4185660068441233, "fifty": 1.2419086126726189, "inputs": { "Player": "Jordan Spence", "Player_ID": "8481606", "Team": "OTT", "Opponent": "NYR", "Position": "D", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.480966128824606, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.330162537885419, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 10, "Prior_GP": 73, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.8594122319301034, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.575708291762905, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 6.498194945848375, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 18.23107534246575, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 18.884999999999998, "Current_PP_Share": 0.07285078472710237, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.2560004977098696, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 311.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 4269.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 5, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 6.001439393939394, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.7669581400856722, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.4372095693406305, "Other_State_SOG": 0.07164383561643836, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9482920490252438, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.4794520547945205, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/ottawa-senators/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:42.652742+00:00", "priorGP": 73, "currentTotalSOG": 10.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.5183333333333333, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.00 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.437, "currentIXG": 0.0437, "priorTOI": 18.72579908675799, "priorPPTOI": 1.2648401826484017, "deploymentChange": 3.3242009132420094, "ppTOIChange": -0.7465068493150684, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021119", "date": "20260323", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "NYR", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 26.733333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020737", "date": "20260114", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "NYR", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 19.733333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020427", "date": "20251204", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "NYR", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 21.033333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2024021138", "date": "20250325", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "NYR", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 11.983333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020475", "date": "20241214", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "NYR", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 17.766666666666666 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 5, "h2hSOG": 1.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "NYR", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 283.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 25.727272727272727, "mostAllowedRank": 23, "fiveSogAllowed60": 24.897512126427788, "pkSogAllowed60": 40.17358958462492, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 39.81818181818182, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 106.0, "D": 82.0, "R": 57.0, "L": 38.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.636363636363637, "L": 3.4545454545454546, "R": 5.181818181818182, "D": 7.454545454545454 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 27.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.4, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 25.727272727272727, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.454545454545454, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8482193", "team": "NYR", "name": "Dylan Garand", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.9285714285714286, "gaa": 1.846928781306842, "gsax": 4.030999999999999, "goalsAllowed": 11.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 15.030999999999999, "shotsAgainst": 154.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9674872583533348, "factor": 0.9674872583533348, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T15:37:42.216Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.05516135611934319, "goalHistoryGoals": 11.0, "goalHistoryShots": 204.0, "goalExpected": 0.055544148448285265, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.05373825589980215, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.054029740370554025, "goalProbability": 0.05231987627688059, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.17098640936734355, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.0069395017793596, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.8594122319301034, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 18.884999999999998, "Current_PP_Share": 0.07285078472710237, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 6.001439393939394, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.4372095693406305, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.1, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9864268368728425, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9197863814450764, "Position_Factor": 1.0097164911259575, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 311.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 4269.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.575708291762905, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 6.498194945848375, "Prior_5v5_Min": 16.705251141552512, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.2560004977098696, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0077105575326217, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.34640522875817, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0077105575326217, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9197863814450764, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 2.8594122319301034, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 0.6666666666666666 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021119", "date": "20260323", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "NYR", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 26.733333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020737", "date": "20260114", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "NYR", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 19.733333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020427", "date": "20251204", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "NYR", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 21.033333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2024021138", "date": "20250325", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "NYR", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 11.983333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020475", "date": "20241214", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "NYR", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 17.766666666666666 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "lineupReviewedAt": "2026-10-22T12:25:32.333917+00:00", "lineupReviewNote": "Reported forward, defense and PP chart reviewed October22; matches existing assignments. Final dressing unconfirmed. Dated statistical inputs now include October21.", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 163, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 14, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482193", "goalieName": "Dylan Garand", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8481606", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482193", "goalieName": "Dylan Garand", "opponent": "OTT", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "No appearance found in the supplied historical files; this does not establish that the goalie has never faced the team." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.0069395017793596, "adjustedSOG": 1.0069395017793596, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.0069395017793596, "adjustedSOG": 1.0069395017793596, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.05516135611934319, "goalHistoryGoals": 11.0, "goalHistoryShots": 204.0, "goalExpected": 0.055544148448285265, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.05373825589980215, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.054029740370554025, "goalProbability": 0.05231987627688059, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.17098640936734355 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.0576905226028033, "modelSOG": 1.0069395017793596, "historyGames": 162, "seasonGames": { "2024": 79, "2025": 73, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 11.0, "historyShots": 204.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.05392156862745098, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.05516135611934319, "goalieFactor": 0.9674872583533348, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 35.389727759462524, "btb": { "id": "8481606", "name": "Jordan Spence", "score": 35.389727759462524, "components": { "Goal model": 17.674418604651162, "SOG model": 30.0, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 6.744186046511628, "Goalie": 39.55882352941177, "Team H2H": 38.163620539599656, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 5, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 405 } }, { "id": "8475343", "name": "Nic Dowd", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "CBJ", "position": "C", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 0.36363636363636365, "priorSOG": 0.88, "currentTOI": 12.316666666666665, "currentFiveTOI": 10.806060606060605, "ppShare": 0.006645401382243487, "rate": 0.8128298829489365, "fifty": 0.6647151408110247, "inputs": { "Player": "Nic Dowd", "Player_ID": "8475343", "Team": "VGK", "Opponent": "CBJ", "Position": "C", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 0.8738310270895373, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 0.8247930734559225, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 11, "Prior_GP": 75, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 1.5143017386427369, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.004375150627538, "Current_PP_SOG60": 144.0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 11.160309090909088, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 10.806060606060605, "Current_PP_Share": 0.006645401382243487, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.014356253486688267, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 25.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3762.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 6, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.392708333333333, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.04831142433259138, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.035836711412369306, "Other_State_SOG": 0.07200000000000001, "Environment_Proxy": 1.0241190783267258, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 0.88, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/vegas-golden-knights/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:42.672170+00:00", "priorGP": 75, "currentTotalSOG": 4.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.03787878787878788, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.36 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.365, "currentIXG": 0.03318181818181818, "priorTOI": 14.542000000000002, "priorPPTOI": 0.06555555555555556, "deploymentChange": -2.225333333333337, "ppTOIChange": -0.02767676767676768, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020459", "date": "20251207", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 17.85 }, { "gameId": "2025020125", "date": "20251024", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 14.466666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024021281", "date": "20250413", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 11.983333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024021270", "date": "20250412", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 13.783333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020463", "date": "20241212", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 14.933333333333334 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 6, "h2hSOG": 0.6, "opponentDefense": { "team": "CBJ", "games": 8, "sogAllowedTotal": 222.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.75, "mostAllowedRank": 13, "fiveSogAllowed60": 26.021128266541208, "pkSogAllowed60": 45.718967636214664, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 43.125, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 66.0, "D": 61.0, "R": 49.0, "L": 46.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 8.25, "L": 5.75, "R": 6.125, "D": 7.625 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 28.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.666666666666668, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.75, "oppPosSogAllowed": 8.25, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8475660", "team": "CBJ", "name": "Cam Talbot", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 4, "savePct": 0.8674698795180723, "gaa": 3.3959351685104195, "gsax": -0.8840000000000003, "goalsAllowed": 11.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 10.116, "shotsAgainst": 83.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0106708091071457, "factor": 1.0106708091071457, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T15:32:32.146Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.12441662866489461, "goalHistoryGoals": 19.0, "goalHistoryShots": 156.0, "goalExpected": 0.041699009213638304, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.04214397138091415, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.04084156501926304, "goalProbability": 0.04126825929680757, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.042669427754453426, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 0.33515623804556677, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 1.5143017386427369, "Current_PP_SOG60": 144.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 10.806060606060605, "Current_PP_Share": 0.006645401382243487, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.392708333333333, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.035836711412369306, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0080456056426796, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9827600403123256, "Position_Factor": 0.9842134378145458, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 25.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3762.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.004375150627538, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 11.986888888888888, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.014356253486688267, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9440597106802093, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.437908496732026, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9440597106802093, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9827600403123256, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 1.5143017386427369, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 144, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 4, "sogPerGame": 0.75 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020459", "date": "20251207", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 17.85 }, { "gameId": "2025020125", "date": "20251024", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 14.466666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024021281", "date": "20250413", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 11.983333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024021270", "date": "20250412", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 13.783333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020463", "date": "20241212", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 14.933333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020177", "date": "20241102", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 14.4 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 99, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475660", "goalieName": "Cam Talbot", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8475343", "goals": 1, "sog": 11, "shootingPct": 0.09090909090909091, "gamesWithAttempts": 6, "recordedAttempts": 18, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020562", "date": "20251221", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 4 }, { "gameId": "2024020998", "date": "20250307", "season": 2024, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2023020618", "date": "20240107", "season": 2023, "goals": 1, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2 }, { "gameId": "2023020339", "date": "20231129", "season": 2023, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 3 }, { "gameId": "2022020566", "date": "20221229", "season": 2022, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2 }, { "gameId": "2022020528", "date": "20221222", "season": 2022, "goals": 0, "sog": 5, "attempts": 6 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475660", "goalieName": "Cam Talbot", "opponent": "VGK", "games": 5, "availableGames": 22, "shotsAgainst": 160.0, "goalsAgainst": 16.0, "savePct": 0.9, "gaa": 3.176704169424222, "gsax": 0.6329999999999996, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020970", "date": "20260304", "goalieTeam": "DET", "opponent": "VGK", "shotsAgainst": 25.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3728.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.397 }, { "gameId": "2024021115", "date": "20250322", "goalieTeam": "DET", "opponent": "VGK", "shotsAgainst": 35.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3491.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.784 }, { "gameId": "2023020544", "date": "20231228", "goalieTeam": "LAK", "opponent": "VGK", "shotsAgainst": 32.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3478.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.46 }, { "gameId": "2023020192", "date": "20231108", "goalieTeam": "LAK", "opponent": "VGK", "shotsAgainst": 38.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.55 }, { "gameId": "2023020125", "date": "20231028", "goalieTeam": "LAK", "opponent": "VGK", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3835.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.442 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.33515623804556677, "adjustedSOG": 0.33515623804556677, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.34199616127098653, "adjustedSOG": 0.33515623804556677, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.12441662866489461, "goalHistoryGoals": 19.0, "goalHistoryShots": 156.0, "goalExpected": 0.042550009401671744, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.04300405242950424, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.04165746181438301, "goalProbability": 0.0420924917934834, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.043502997910038754 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1285065693821302, "modelSOG": 0.33515623804556677, "historyGames": 168, "seasonGames": { "2024": 82, "2025": 75, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 19.0, "historyShots": 156.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.12179487179487179, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.12441662866489461, "goalieFactor": 1.0106708091071457, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 33.86576748172375, "btb": { "id": "8475343", "name": "Nic Dowd", "score": 33.86576748172375, "components": { "Goal model": 11.395348837209303, "SOG model": 3.488372093023256, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 1.3953488372093024, "Goalie": 13.088235294117647, "Team H2H": 67.18342036553526, "Goalie H2H": 48.86407641667742 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 6, "goalieH2HShots": 11, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 418 } }, { "id": "8481848", "name": "Jacob Gaucher", "position": "C", "priorGP": 4, "priorSOG": 1, "priorTOI": 8.808333333333334, "priorPPTOI": 0.025, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.891566265060241, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 10.375, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.042592592592593, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.0, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0050173142237073, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9117211340641708, "Position_Factor": 1.0116943517389423, "Input_GP": 2, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 530.0, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0337877241580407, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.437908496732026, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0337877241580407, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9117211340641708, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 0, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "inputs": { "Player": "Jacob Gaucher", "Player_ID": "8481848", "Team": "PHI", "Opponent": "ANA", "Position": "L", "Current_GP": 2, "Prior_GP": 4, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.891566265060241, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 7.149950347567031, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 9.78, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 10.375, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.005871233818306793, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 530.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 1, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Measured game-matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Historical skater-team PP minute approximation, existing hybrid method", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.042592592592593, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.008881872048471887, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.0, "Other_State_SOG": 0.0, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9949214190083264, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1, "Status": "Historical input object restored from saved prior summaries", "Availability_Note": "Conditional on dressing", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.145753450593594, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 0.7664084429426519 }, "team": "PHI", "isHome": true, "opponent": "ANA", "opponentDefense": { "team": "ANA", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 239.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 26.555555555555557, "mostAllowedRank": 18, "fiveSogAllowed60": 25.834281008587897, "pkSogAllowed60": 38.93928820655967, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 43.333333333333336, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 54.0, "C": 91.0, "R": 57.0, "L": 37.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.11111111111111, "L": 4.111111111111111, "R": 6.333333333333333, "D": 6.0 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 28.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.2, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8480843", "team": "ANA", "name": "Lukas Dostal", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.8813559322033898, "gaa": 3.1634446397188047, "gsax": 2.846, "goalsAllowed": 21.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 23.846, "shotsAgainst": 177.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9815060369171769, "factor": 0.9815060369171769, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; 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Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480843", "goalieName": "Lukas Dostal", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8481848", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480843", "goalieName": "Lukas Dostal", "opponent": "PHI", "games": 5, "availableGames": 5, "shotsAgainst": 155.0, "goalsAgainst": 18.0, "savePct": 0.8838709677419355, "gaa": 3.646595385481148, "gsax": -2.507999999999999, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021082", "date": "20260318", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 28.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3704.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.611 }, { "gameId": "2025020670", "date": "20260106", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 38.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3560.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.171 }, { "gameId": "2024020568", "date": "20241228", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3472.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.781 }, { "gameId": "2023020208", "date": "20231110", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 35.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3450.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.281 }, { "gameId": "2023020117", "date": "20231028", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3584.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.648 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.5168938620790203, "adjustedSOG": 0.5168938620790203, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.5168938620790203, "adjustedSOG": 0.5168938620790203, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.11898740775712778, "goalHistoryGoals": 0.0, "goalHistoryShots": 8.0, "goalExpected": 0.06150386073435296, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.06150386073435296, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.05965068470648476, "goalProbability": 0.05965068470648476, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.128506400377698, "modelSOG": 0.5168938620790203, "historyGames": 10, "seasonGames": { "2024": 4, "2025": 4, "2026": 2 }, "historyGoals": 0.0, "historyShots": 8.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.0, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.11898740775712778, "goalieFactor": 0.9815060369171769, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": 40.85738714090287, "btb": { "id": "8481848", "name": "Jacob Gaucher", "score": 40.85738714090287, "components": { "Goal model": 20.46511627906977, "SOG model": 7.209302325581396, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 44.18604651162791, "Goalie": 44.85294117647059, "Team H2H": 50.0, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Team H2H unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 0, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 338 } }, { "id": "8482684", "name": "Luke Hughes", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "LAK", "position": "D", "currentGP": 9, "currentSOG": 3.111111111111111, "priorSOG": 2.2058823529411766, "currentTOI": 23.916666666666668, "currentFiveTOI": 18.422222222222224, "ppShare": 0.6513424052960647, "rate": 2.3456847045235865, "fifty": 2.665546856854673, "inputs": { "Player": "Luke Hughes", "Player_ID": "8482684", "Team": "NJD", "Opponent": "LAK", "Position": "D", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 2.3407325350133195, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 2.555927230834842, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 9, "Prior_GP": 68, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 8.323281061519904, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.386258136293303, "Current_PP_SOG60": 10.163749294184077, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 10.15254454557108, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 18.645482026143792, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 18.422222222222224, "Current_PP_Share": 0.6513424052960647, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.492977132369125, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1771.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2719.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 4, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.972354497354498, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 3.002470855172671, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 3.2387053382915836, "Other_State_SOG": 0.11911764705882354, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9908219918860978, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 2.2058823529411766, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-jersey-devils/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:42.709727+00:00", "priorGP": 68, "currentTotalSOG": 28.0, "currentPPTOI": 3.2796296296296297, "volumeNote": "Observed 3.11 SOG/game in 9 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 9 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.554, "currentIXG": 0.17266666666666666, "priorTOI": 23.011274509803922, "priorPPTOI": 1.9120098039215687, "deploymentChange": 0.9053921568627459, "ppTOIChange": 1.367619825708061, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021050", "date": "20260314", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 22.15 }, { "gameId": "2025020191", "date": "20251101", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 25.716666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2024020602", "date": "20250101", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 20.233333333333334 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 1.3333333333333333, "opponentDefense": { "team": "LAK", "games": 7, "sogAllowedTotal": 193.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.571428571428573, "mostAllowedRank": 14, "fiveSogAllowed60": 25.227874154660395, "pkSogAllowed60": 57.61396702230844, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 39.142857142857146, "positionUnassignedSOG": 1.0, "positionTotals": { "C": 86.0, "D": 47.0, "R": 28.0, "L": 31.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 12.285714285714286, "L": 4.428571428571429, "R": 4.0, "D": 6.714285714285714 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 27.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 29.5, "positionSourceDifference": 1.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.571428571428573, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.714285714285714, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8476341", "team": "LAK", "name": "Anton Forsberg", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 3, "savePct": 0.8833333333333333, "gaa": 2.6313041662315966, "gsax": -2.1049999999999995, "goalsAllowed": 7.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.8950000000000005, "shotsAgainst": 60.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0218332511814823, "factor": 1.0218332511814823, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T19:00:24.293Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.05456182960366239, "goalHistoryGoals": 16.0, "goalHistoryShots": 299.0, "goalExpected": 0.16700309338026093, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.1706493138661167, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.1538030062759376, "goalProbability": 0.15688280885774647, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.30798025818088715, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 9, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 3.0608044963552885, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 8.323281061519904, "Current_PP_SOG60": 10.163749294184077, "Current_5v5_Min": 18.422222222222224, "Current_PP_Share": 0.6513424052960647, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.972354497354498, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 3.2387053382915836, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9946407827573338, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.085978140946376, "Position_Factor": 0.98999544178116, "Input_GP": 9, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1771.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2719.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.386258136293303, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 10.15254454557108, "Prior_5v5_Min": 19.16642156862745, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.492977132369125, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9645698136906008, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.34640522875817, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9645698136906008, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.085978140946376, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 8.323281061519904, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 10.163749294184077, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021050", "date": "20260314", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 22.15 }, { "gameId": "2025020191", "date": "20251101", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 25.716666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2024020602", "date": "20250101", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 20.233333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020461", "date": "20241212", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 19.033333333333335 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 174, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 25, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476341", "goalieName": "Anton Forsberg", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8482684", "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 2, "recordedAttempts": 5, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021050", "date": "20260314", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2024020737", "date": "20250119", "season": 2024, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 4 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476341", "goalieName": "Anton Forsberg", "opponent": "NJD", "games": 5, "availableGames": 11, "shotsAgainst": 115.0, "goalsAgainst": 15.0, "savePct": 0.8695652173913043, "gaa": 4.18280402788536, "gsax": -4.362, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021050", "date": "20260314", "goalieTeam": "LAK", "opponent": "NJD", "shotsAgainst": 27.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3466.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.948 }, { "gameId": "2024020737", "date": "20250119", "goalieTeam": "OTT", "opponent": "NJD", "shotsAgainst": 26.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.295 }, { "gameId": "2024020062", "date": "20241017", "goalieTeam": "OTT", "opponent": "NJD", "shotsAgainst": 35.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3470.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.298 }, { "gameId": "2023021224", "date": "20240406", "goalieTeam": "OTT", "opponent": "NJD", "shotsAgainst": 9.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 994.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 0.874 }, { "gameId": "2022020274", "date": "20221119", "goalieTeam": "OTT", "opponent": "NJD", "shotsAgainst": 18.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 1380.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.223 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 3.0608044963552885, "adjustedSOG": 3.0608044963552885, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 3.0608044963552885, "adjustedSOG": 3.0608044963552885, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.05456182960366239, "goalHistoryGoals": 16.0, "goalHistoryShots": 299.0, "goalExpected": 0.16700309338026093, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.16700309338026093, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.1538030062759376, "goalProbability": 0.1538030062759376, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05770170011861293, "modelSOG": 3.0608044963552885, "historyGames": 148, "seasonGames": { "2024": 71, "2025": 68, "2026": 9 }, "historyGoals": 16.0, "historyShots": 299.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.05351170568561873, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.05456182960366239, "goalieFactor": 1.0218332511814823, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 55.12312596280619, "btb": { "id": "8482684", "name": "Luke Hughes", "score": 55.12312596280619, "components": { "Goal model": 57.44186046511628, "SOG model": 95.11627906976744, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 56.27906976744186, "Goalie": 76.61764705882354, "Team H2H": 37.20626631853786, "Goalie H2H": 50.08328285887341 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": 2, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 143 } }, { "id": "8476372", "name": "Nick Seeler", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "ANA", "position": "D", "currentGP": 12, "currentSOG": 0.6666666666666666, "priorSOG": 1.175, "currentTOI": 19.781944444444445, "currentFiveTOI": 15.856944444444444, "ppShare": 0.00436046511627907, "rate": 1.130057587108655, "fifty": 0.9355960065459398, "inputs": { "Player": "Nick Seeler", "Player_ID": "8476372", "Team": "PHI", "Opponent": "ANA", "Position": "D", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.260777853243539, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.0096691337466743, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 12, "Prior_GP": 80, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 1.8919155645090655, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.181070408679137, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 15.674048611111111, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 15.856944444444444, "Current_PP_Share": 0.00436046511627907, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.008464362088058959, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 15.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3440.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 7, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.042592592592593, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.028196333236805367, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.021988049095607236, "Other_State_SOG": 0.09541666666666666, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9949214190083264, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.175, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/philadelphia-flyers/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:42.728573+00:00", "priorGP": 80, "currentTotalSOG": 8.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.020833333333333332, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.67 SOG/game in 12 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 12 games. 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MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021082", "date": "20260318", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 17.45 }, { "gameId": "2025020670", "date": "20260106", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 17.683333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020675", "date": "20250111", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 11.15 }, { "gameId": "2024020568", "date": "20241228", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 18.5 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff latest reported chart; October 21 final lineup pending", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 143, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480843", "goalieName": "Lukas Dostal", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8476372", "goals": 0, "sog": 6, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 4, "recordedAttempts": 10, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021082", "date": "20260318", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2 }, { "gameId": "2024020568", "date": "20241228", "season": 2024, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 3 }, { "gameId": "2023020208", "date": "20231110", "season": 2023, "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 4 }, { "gameId": "2023020117", "date": "20231028", "season": 2023, "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 1 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480843", "goalieName": "Lukas Dostal", "opponent": "PHI", "games": 5, "availableGames": 5, "shotsAgainst": 155.0, "goalsAgainst": 18.0, "savePct": 0.8838709677419355, "gaa": 3.646595385481148, "gsax": -2.507999999999999, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021082", "date": "20260318", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 28.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3704.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.611 }, { "gameId": "2025020670", "date": "20260106", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 38.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3560.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.171 }, { "gameId": "2024020568", "date": "20241228", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3472.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.781 }, { "gameId": "2023020208", "date": "20231110", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 35.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3450.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.281 }, { "gameId": "2023020117", "date": "20231028", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3584.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.648 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.6232596616095398, "adjustedSOG": 0.6232596616095398, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.6232596616095398, "adjustedSOG": 0.6232596616095398, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.04498469757121314, "goalHistoryGoals": 7.0, "goalHistoryShots": 184.0, "goalExpected": 0.02803714738584179, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.02803714738584179, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.027647754213697952, "goalProbability": 0.027647754213697952, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05775654110224532, "modelSOG": 0.6232596616095398, "historyGames": 169, "seasonGames": { "2024": 77, "2025": 80, "2026": 12 }, "historyGoals": 7.0, "historyShots": 184.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.03804347826086957, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.04498469757121314, "goalieFactor": 0.9815060369171769, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 33.174615137040554, "btb": { "id": "8476372", "name": "Nick Seeler", "score": 33.174615137040554, "components": { "Goal model": 6.046511627906977, "SOG model": 10.0, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 0.0, "Goalie": 44.85294117647059, "Team H2H": 48.76911600149198, "Goalie H2H": 46.64651293588302 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": 6, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 421 } }, { "id": "8479359", "name": "Beck Malenstyn", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "WSH", "position": "L", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 0.3, "priorSOG": 0.8888888888888888, "currentTOI": 9.948333333333334, "currentFiveTOI": 7.776666666666666, "ppShare": 0.00628140703517588, "rate": 0.8096820787071612, "fifty": 0.6302362877215895, "inputs": { "Player": "Beck Malenstyn", "Player_ID": "8479359", "Team": "BUF", "Opponent": "WSH", "Position": "L", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 0.7704784332935847, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 0.5644194923778776, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 10, "Prior_GP": 81, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.3146163737676813, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.3252086369055505, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 8.239592592592592, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 7.776666666666666, "Current_PP_Share": 0.00628140703517588, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.0039066815143600124, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 20.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3184.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 5, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.493148148148148, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.03059128369393218, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.03450469942304113, "Other_State_SOG": 0.044444444444444446, "Environment_Proxy": 1.0834850655013406, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 0.8888888888888888, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/buffalo-sabres/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:42.746749+00:00", "priorGP": 81, "currentTotalSOG": 3.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.03333333333333333, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.30 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. 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MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021213", "date": "20260404", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 12.45 }, { "gameId": "2025021028", "date": "20260312", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 10.416666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020186", "date": "20251101", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 12.7 }, { "gameId": "2024021171", "date": "20250330", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 11.233333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020480", "date": "20241214", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 10.35 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff latest reported chart; October 21 final lineup pending", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 101, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. 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MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2024020675", "date": "20250111", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 10.916666666666666 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "ppAssignmentSourceDate": "2026-10-13T16:34:52.608Z", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. 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Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479361", "goalieName": "Joseph Woll", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8482118", "goals": 1, "sog": 2, "shootingPct": 0.5, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 5, "log": [ { "gameId": "2024021176", "date": "20250330", "season": 2024, "goals": 1, "sog": 2, "attempts": 5 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479361", "goalieName": "Joseph Woll", "opponent": "ANA", "games": 3, "availableGames": 3, "shotsAgainst": 91.0, "goalsAgainst": 7.0, "savePct": 0.9230769230769231, "gaa": 2.6359832635983262, "gsax": 2.575, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021029", "date": "20260312", "goalieTeam": "TOR", "opponent": "ANA", "shotsAgainst": 40.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3567.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.449 }, { "gameId": "2024021176", "date": "20250330", "goalieTeam": "TOR", "opponent": "ANA", "shotsAgainst": 31.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3593.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.338 }, { "gameId": "2024020459", "date": "20241212", "goalieTeam": "TOR", "opponent": "ANA", "shotsAgainst": 20.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 2400.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.788 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.0496174863387977, "adjustedSOG": 1.0496174863387977, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.07103825136612, "adjustedSOG": 1.0496174863387977, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.1623862715159911, "goalHistoryGoals": 12.0, "goalHistoryShots": 53.0, "goalExpected": 0.17392190829035112, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.16793892848101666, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.15963747955795343, "goalProbability": 0.15459453669607562, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.5042942861877814 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1284509954194664, "modelSOG": 1.0496174863387977, "historyGames": 46, "seasonGames": { "2024": 32, "2025": 9, "2026": 5 }, "historyGoals": 12.0, "historyShots": 53.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.22641509433962265, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.1623862715159911, "goalieFactor": 0.9655996195755495, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 48.62364835142184, "btb": { "id": "8482118", "name": "Sam Colangelo", "score": 48.62364835142184, "components": { "Goal model": 58.372093023255815, "SOG model": 32.55813953488372, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 46.74418604651163, "Goalie": 28.970588235294116, "Team H2H": 50.87823403750297, "Goalie H2H": 51.181102362204726 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 1, "goalieH2HShots": 2, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 219 } }, { "id": "8482751", "name": "Ryan Winterton", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "position": "R", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 1.6, "priorSOG": 1.2794117647058822, "currentTOI": 13.406666666666666, "currentFiveTOI": 11.713333333333335, "ppShare": 0.01266294227188082, "rate": 1.307074704865956, "fifty": 1.3819511222932204, "inputs": { "Player": "Ryan Winterton", "Player_ID": "8482751", "Team": "SEA", "Opponent": "MIN", "Position": "C", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.5151239347060625, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.5391973477145549, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 10, "Prior_GP": 68, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 7.6835515082527035, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.851462093054498, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 11.483303921568627, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 11.713333333333335, "Current_PP_Share": 0.01266294227188082, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.00783063427994065, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 34.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2685.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 6, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.085, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.05701937561080924, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.06439106145251397, "Other_State_SOG": 0.036470588235294116, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9620662188708584, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.2794117647058822, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/seattle-kraken/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:42.783925+00:00", "priorGP": 68, "currentTotalSOG": 16.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.056666666666666664, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.60 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 2.052, "currentIXG": 0.2052, "priorTOI": 11.979166666666668, "priorPPTOI": 0.03259803921568628, "deploymentChange": 1.4274999999999984, "ppTOIChange": 0.024068627450980387, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020693", "date": "20260108", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 11.55 }, { "gameId": "2025020465", "date": "20251208", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 12.433333333333334 } ], "h2hGames": 2, "h2hAvailableGames": 2, "h2hSOG": 1.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "MIN", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 261.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 26.1, "mostAllowedRank": 21, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.40367597004765, "pkSogAllowed60": 45.30289727831431, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 40.4, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 77.0, "C": 114.0, "R": 29.0, "L": 41.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 11.4, "L": 4.1, "R": 2.9, "D": 7.7 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 24.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 28.333333333333332, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 26.1, "oppPosSogAllowed": 2.9, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8482661", "team": "MIN", "name": "Jesper Wallstedt", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 9, "savePct": 0.9152542372881356, "gaa": 2.1979363819525, "gsax": 6.934999999999999, "goalsAllowed": 20.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 26.935, "shotsAgainst": 236.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9495343259526882, "factor": 0.9495343259526882, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T18:37:27.914Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.08650410279051272, "goalHistoryGoals": 6.0, "goalHistoryShots": 118.0, "goalExpected": 0.11894314133695502, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.1129405955360809, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.11214171823833023, "goalProbability": 0.10679628117187473, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.5345437066455503, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.3750000000000002, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 7.6835515082527035, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 11.713333333333335, "Current_PP_Share": 0.01266294227188082, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.085, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.06439106145251397, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.1, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.957587153238364, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9748801923935355, "Position_Factor": 0.95, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 34.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2685.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.851462093054498, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 10.946568627450981, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.00783063427994065, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.85, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.382352941176471, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9748801923935355, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 7.6835515082527035, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020693", "date": "20260108", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 11.55 }, { "gameId": "2025020465", "date": "20251208", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 12.433333333333334 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 119, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482661", "goalieName": "Jesper Wallstedt", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8482751", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482661", "goalieName": "Jesper Wallstedt", "opponent": "SEA", "games": 2, "availableGames": 2, "shotsAgainst": 55.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "savePct": 0.9272727272727272, "gaa": 1.9647973802701597, "gsax": 2.874, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021240", "date": "20260407", "goalieTeam": "MIN", "opponent": "SEA", "shotsAgainst": 27.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.053 }, { "gameId": "2025020693", "date": "20260108", "goalieTeam": "MIN", "opponent": "SEA", "shotsAgainst": 28.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3729.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.821 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.3750000000000002, "adjustedSOG": 1.3750000000000002, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.3750000000000002, "adjustedSOG": 1.3750000000000002, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.08650410279051272, "goalHistoryGoals": 6.0, "goalHistoryShots": 118.0, "goalExpected": 0.11894314133695502, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.11894314133695502, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.11214171823833023, "goalProbability": 0.11214171823833023, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12857894408331774, "modelSOG": 1.3750000000000002, "historyGames": 90, "seasonGames": { "2024": 12, "2025": 68, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 6.0, "historyShots": 118.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.05084745762711865, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.08650410279051272, "goalieFactor": 0.9495343259526882, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 47.073928557396606, "btb": { "id": "8482751", "name": "Ryan Winterton", "score": 47.073928557396606, "components": { "Goal model": 42.7906976744186, "SOG model": 51.395348837209305, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 65.5813953488372, "Goalie": 23.676470588235293, "Team H2H": 46.80156657963447, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 2, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 250 } }, { "id": "8482111", "name": "Justin Barron", "team": "STL", "opponent": "CAR", "position": "D", "currentGP": 6, "currentSOG": 1.6666666666666667, "priorSOG": 0.5961538461538461, "currentTOI": 15.819444444444445, "currentFiveTOI": 14.652777777777779, "ppShare": 0.013430330162283156, "rate": 0.6199144877509775, "fifty": 0.9271308618139866, "inputs": { "Player": "Justin Barron", "Player_ID": "8482111", "Team": "STL", "Opponent": "CAR", "Position": "D", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 0.6633231879545765, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 0.9597858878496378, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 6, "Prior_GP": 52, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 6.8246445497630335, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 2.670814885724542, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 14.274732905982905, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 14.652777777777779, "Current_PP_Share": 0.013430330162283156, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.060483589939768094, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 24.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1787.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 2, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.016414141414142, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.13818368947416074, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.06737209814993811, "Other_State_SOG": 0.0, "Environment_Proxy": 0.85, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 0.5961538461538461, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/st-louis-blues/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:42.803351+00:00", "priorGP": 52, "currentTotalSOG": 10.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.06666666666666667, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.67 SOG/game in 6 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 6 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.549, "currentIXG": 0.09150000000000001, "priorTOI": 14.250320512820512, "priorPPTOI": 0.24423076923076922, "deploymentChange": 1.569123931623933, "ppTOIChange": -0.17756410256410254, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2024021132", "date": "20250325", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 21.566666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020553", "date": "20241223", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 13.05 } ], "h2hGames": 2, "h2hAvailableGames": 2, "h2hSOG": 1.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "CAR", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 246.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 22.363636363636363, "mostAllowedRank": 31, "fiveSogAllowed60": 21.75191064079953, "pkSogAllowed60": 32.87187039764359, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 33.09090909090909, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 77.0, "R": 66.0, "D": 59.0, "L": 44.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.0, "L": 4.0, "R": 6.0, "D": 5.363636363636363 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 23.0, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 7, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 22.428571428571427, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 22.363636363636363, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.363636363636363, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8481611", "team": "CAR", "name": "Pyotr Kochetkov", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 6, "savePct": 0.8991596638655462, "gaa": 1.9842910293509715, "gsax": 2.2720000000000002, "goalsAllowed": 12.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 14.272, "shotsAgainst": 119.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9828959307519136, "factor": 0.9828959307519136, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T22:32:34.088Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.05499349200969424, "goalHistoryGoals": 6.0, "goalHistoryShots": 114.0, "goalExpected": 0.07869803864885001, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.07735198194611151, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.07568100907928665, "goalProbability": 0.07443598555794627, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.12450235213403854, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 6, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.4310427611139358, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 6.8246445497630335, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 14.652777777777779, "Current_PP_Share": 0.013430330162283156, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.016414141414142, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.06737209814993811, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9235603264096603, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.85, "Position_Factor": 0.9854836768055022, "Input_GP": 6, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 24.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1787.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 2.670814885724542, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 13.392628205128204, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.060483589939768094, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.8586256566683613, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.34640522875817, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.8586256566683613, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.85, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 6.8246445497630335, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2024021132", "date": "20250325", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 21.566666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020553", "date": "20241223", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 13.05 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 49, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481611", "goalieName": "Pyotr Kochetkov", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8482111", "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 4, "log": [ { "gameId": "2024021132", "date": "20250325", "season": 2024, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 4 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481611", "goalieName": "Pyotr Kochetkov", "opponent": "STL", "games": 3, "availableGames": 3, "shotsAgainst": 60.0, "goalsAgainst": 6.0, "savePct": 0.9, "gaa": 2.610587382160986, "gsax": -0.46099999999999985, "log": [ { "gameId": "2024020284", "date": "20241117", "goalieTeam": "CAR", "opponent": "STL", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3598.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.005 }, { "gameId": "2024020084", "date": "20241019", "goalieTeam": "CAR", "opponent": "STL", "shotsAgainst": 19.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3476.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.804 }, { "gameId": "2022020369", "date": "20221201", "goalieTeam": "CAR", "opponent": "STL", "shotsAgainst": 11.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 1200.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 0.73 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.4310427611139358, "adjustedSOG": 1.4310427611139358, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.4310427611139358, "adjustedSOG": 1.4310427611139358, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.05499349200969424, "goalHistoryGoals": 6.0, "goalHistoryShots": 114.0, "goalExpected": 0.07869803864885001, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.07869803864885001, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.07568100907928665, "goalProbability": 0.07568100907928665, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.057686072900745684, "modelSOG": 1.4310427611139358, "historyGames": 120, "seasonGames": { "2024": 62, "2025": 52, "2026": 6 }, "historyGoals": 6.0, "historyShots": 114.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.05263157894736842, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.05499349200969424, "goalieFactor": 0.9828959307519136, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 43.557143707374415, "btb": { "id": "8482111", "name": "Justin Barron", "score": 43.557143707374415, "components": { "Goal model": 27.674418604651162, "SOG model": 53.72093023255814, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 33.25581395348837, "Goalie": 50.14705882352941, "Team H2H": 46.583986074847694, "Goalie H2H": 50.08328285887341 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 2, "goalieH2HShots": 2, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 300 } }, { "id": "8483505", "name": "Matthew Poitras", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "position": "C", "currentGP": 7, "currentSOG": 1.4285714285714286, "priorSOG": 2.6666666666666665, "currentTOI": 10.461904761904762, "currentFiveTOI": 10.119047619047619, "ppShare": 0.04884453781512605, "rate": 2.580381230183051, "fifty": 2.1539569265016136, "inputs": { "Player": "Matthew Poitras", "Player_ID": "8483505", "Team": "BOS", "Opponent": "SJS", "Position": "C", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 2.5187091775859565, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.9495129741712127, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 7, "Prior_GP": 3, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 8.470588235294118, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 14.194184327254805, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 10.465, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 10.119047619047619, "Current_PP_Share": 0.04884453781512605, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.19258462660461437, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 93.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1904.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 3, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.950833333333334, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.4553111328409741, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.24182116596638656, "Other_State_SOG": 0.0, "Environment_Proxy": 1.0796680236682055, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 2.6666666666666665, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/boston-bruins/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:42.821948+00:00", "priorGP": 3, "currentTotalSOG": 10.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.22142857142857145, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.43 SOG/game in 7 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 7 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.385, "currentIXG": 0.19785714285714287, "priorTOI": 12.116666666666667, "priorPPTOI": 0.8444444444444444, "deploymentChange": -1.654761904761905, "ppTOIChange": -0.623015873015873, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2026020105", "date": "20261013", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 10.883333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020740", "date": "20250120", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 13.233333333333333 } ], "h2hGames": 2, "h2hAvailableGames": 2, "h2hSOG": 2.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "SJS", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 286.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 28.6, "mostAllowedRank": 10, "fiveSogAllowed60": 25.210423540502322, "pkSogAllowed60": 49.90958408679928, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 47.8, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 86.0, "C": 94.0, "R": 53.0, "L": 53.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.4, "L": 5.3, "R": 5.3, "D": 8.6 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 30.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 29.833333333333332, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 28.6, "oppPosSogAllowed": 9.4, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8477968", "team": "SJS", "name": "Alex Nedeljkovic", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 4, "savePct": 0.9173553719008265, "gaa": 2.372479240806643, "gsax": 4.638, "goalsAllowed": 10.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 14.638, "shotsAgainst": 121.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9618500831522029, "factor": 0.9618500831522029, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T16:06:01.887Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.1282296557903147, "goalHistoryGoals": 6.0, "goalHistoryShots": 47.0, "goalExpected": 0.18281732979760834, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.1758428638674933, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.16707970844043754, "goalProbability": 0.1612502291223528, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.5829479318084752, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 7, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.4257024139295607, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 8.470588235294118, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 10.119047619047619, "Current_PP_Share": 0.04884453781512605, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.950833333333334, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.24182116596638656, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9930883597207428, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0259958714356598, "Position_Factor": 0.9935572564554559, "Input_GP": 7, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 93.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1904.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 14.194184327254805, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 11.272222222222224, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.19258462660461437, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9979916897506925, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.437908496732026, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9979916897506925, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0259958714356598, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 8.470588235294118, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 1.0 }, { "season": "2026", "label": "2026–27", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 3.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2026020105", "date": "20261013", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 10.883333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020740", "date": "20250120", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 13.233333333333333 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 8, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477968", "goalieName": "Alex Nedeljkovic", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8483505", "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 2, "log": [ { "gameId": "2024020952", "date": "20250301", "season": 2024, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477968", "goalieName": "Alex Nedeljkovic", "opponent": "BOS", "games": 5, "availableGames": 8, "shotsAgainst": 134.0, "goalsAgainst": 17.0, "savePct": 0.8731343283582089, "gaa": 3.7850207186591627, "gsax": -3.2609999999999997, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021027", "date": "20260312", "goalieTeam": "SJS", "opponent": "BOS", "shotsAgainst": 41.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.661 }, { "gameId": "2024020952", "date": "20250301", "goalieTeam": "PIT", "opponent": "BOS", "shotsAgainst": 25.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3474.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.566 }, { "gameId": "2023021279", "date": "20240413", "goalieTeam": "PIT", "opponent": "BOS", "shotsAgainst": 16.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 1895.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.22 }, { "gameId": "2023021012", "date": "20240309", "goalieTeam": "PIT", "opponent": "BOS", "shotsAgainst": 23.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.955 }, { "gameId": "2023020589", "date": "20240104", "goalieTeam": "PIT", "opponent": "BOS", "shotsAgainst": 29.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.337 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.4257024139295607, "adjustedSOG": 1.4257024139295607, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.4257024139295607, "adjustedSOG": 1.4257024139295607, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.1282296557903147, "goalHistoryGoals": 6.0, "goalHistoryShots": 47.0, "goalExpected": 0.18281732979760834, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.18281732979760834, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.16707970844043754, "goalProbability": 0.16707970844043754, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1284975940117626, "modelSOG": 1.4257024139295607, "historyGames": 43, "seasonGames": { "2024": 33, "2025": 3, "2026": 7 }, "historyGoals": 6.0, "historyShots": 47.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.1276595744680851, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.1282296557903147, "goalieFactor": 0.9618500831522029, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": 59.40936932585541, "btb": { "id": "8483505", "name": "Matthew Poitras", "score": 59.40936932585541, "components": { "Goal model": 62.093023255813954, "SOG model": 53.48837209302326, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 63.02325581395349, "Goalie": 97.5, "Team H2H": 54.9390774586597, "Goalie H2H": 50.23158869847151 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 2, "goalieH2HShots": 1, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 93 } }, { "id": "8480208", "name": "Drake Batherson", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "NYR", "position": "R", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 2.2, "priorSOG": 2.1265822784810124, "currentTOI": 17.916666666666664, "currentFiveTOI": 12.643333333333334, "ppShare": 0.6010775357226517, "rate": 2.0636232458289925, "fifty": 2.047582897513119, "inputs": { "Player": "Drake Batherson", "Player_ID": "8480208", "Team": "OTT", "Opponent": "NYR", "Position": "R", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 2.127689713045144, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 2.169021526029933, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 10, "Prior_GP": 79, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 7.5929343527550754, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.66656114971273, "Current_PP_SOG60": 7.014809041309431, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 9.844807547685786, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 12.849130801687764, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 12.643333333333334, "Current_PP_Share": 0.6010775357226517, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.6245713737608307, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2566.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 4269.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 5, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 6.001439393939394, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 3.6496294552330832, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 3.607330401697935, "Other_State_SOG": 0.13531645569620254, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9482920490252438, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 2.1265822784810124, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/ottawa-senators/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:42.841078+00:00", "priorGP": 79, "currentTotalSOG": 22.0, "currentPPTOI": 4.276666666666666, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.20 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 2.944, "currentIXG": 0.2944, "priorTOI": 17.35168776371308, "priorPPTOI": 3.0858649789029537, "deploymentChange": 0.5649789029535839, "ppTOIChange": 1.1908016877637126, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021119", "date": "20260323", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "NYR", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 18.55 }, { "gameId": "2025020737", "date": "20260114", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "NYR", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 17.516666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020427", "date": "20251204", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "NYR", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 9.0, "toi": 23.083333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2024021003", "date": "20250308", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "NYR", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 18.3 }, { "gameId": "2024020750", "date": "20250121", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "NYR", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 17.183333333333334 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 6, "h2hSOG": 1.8, "opponentDefense": { "team": "NYR", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 283.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 25.727272727272727, "mostAllowedRank": 23, "fiveSogAllowed60": 24.897512126427788, "pkSogAllowed60": 40.17358958462492, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 39.81818181818182, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 106.0, "D": 82.0, "R": 57.0, "L": 38.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.636363636363637, "L": 3.4545454545454546, "R": 5.181818181818182, "D": 7.454545454545454 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 27.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.4, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 25.727272727272727, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.181818181818182, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8482193", "team": "NYR", "name": "Dylan Garand", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.9285714285714286, "gaa": 1.846928781306842, "gsax": 4.030999999999999, "goalsAllowed": 11.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 15.030999999999999, "shotsAgainst": 154.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9674872583533348, "factor": 0.9674872583533348, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T15:37:42.216Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.15733877237983504, "goalHistoryGoals": 63.0, "goalHistoryShots": 382.0, "goalExpected": 0.3235971147554496, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.3130760853657994, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.2764583120637703, "goalProbability": 0.26880572273166364, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.7652589332106663, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 2.056690222383626, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 7.5929343527550754, "Current_PP_SOG60": 7.014809041309431, "Current_5v5_Min": 12.643333333333334, "Current_PP_Share": 0.6010775357226517, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 6.001439393939394, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 3.607330401697935, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.1, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9864268368728425, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9197863814450764, "Position_Factor": 1.002510875172058, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2566.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 4269.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.66656114971273, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 9.844807547685786, "Prior_5v5_Min": 13.329324894514768, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.6245713737608307, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9804839968774395, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.382352941176471, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9804839968774395, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9197863814450764, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 7.5929343527550754, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 7.014809041309431, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 0.6666666666666666 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 2.3333333333333335 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021119", "date": "20260323", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "NYR", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 18.55 }, { "gameId": "2025020737", "date": "20260114", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "NYR", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 17.516666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020427", "date": "20251204", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "NYR", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 9.0, "toi": 23.083333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2024021003", "date": "20250308", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "NYR", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 18.3 }, { "gameId": "2024020750", "date": "20250121", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "NYR", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 17.183333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020170", "date": "20241101", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "NYR", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 19.466666666666665 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "lineupReviewedAt": "2026-10-22T12:25:32.333917+00:00", "lineupReviewNote": "Reported forward, defense and PP chart reviewed October22; matches existing assignments. Final dressing unconfirmed. Dated statistical inputs now include October21.", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 187, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 66, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482193", "goalieName": "Dylan Garand", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8480208", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482193", "goalieName": "Dylan Garand", "opponent": "OTT", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "No appearance found in the supplied historical files; this does not establish that the goalie has never faced the team." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 2.056690222383626, "adjustedSOG": 2.056690222383626, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 2.056690222383626, "adjustedSOG": 2.056690222383626, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.15733877237983504, "goalHistoryGoals": 63.0, "goalHistoryShots": 382.0, "goalExpected": 0.3235971147554496, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.3130760853657994, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.2764583120637703, "goalProbability": 0.26880572273166364, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.7652589332106663 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12837288287080484, "modelSOG": 2.056690222383626, "historyGames": 171, "seasonGames": { "2024": 82, "2025": 79, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 63.0, "historyShots": 382.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.1649214659685864, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.15733877237983504, "goalieFactor": 0.9674872583533348, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 60.96691444353563, "btb": { "id": "8480208", "name": "Drake Batherson", "score": 60.96691444353563, "components": { "Goal model": 87.44186046511628, "SOG model": 77.44186046511628, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 83.48837209302326, "Goalie": 39.55882352941177, "Team H2H": 48.67819843342036, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 6, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 82 } }, { "id": "8483455", "name": "Isaac Howard", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "TOR", "position": "R", "currentGP": 9, "currentSOG": 1.0, "priorSOG": 1.2413793103448276, "currentTOI": 9.544444444444444, "currentFiveTOI": 8.153703703703705, "ppShare": 0.28345834978286616, "rate": 1.2118880202412317, "fifty": 1.1498072798978425, "inputs": { "Player": "Isaac Howard", "Player_ID": "8483455", "Team": "EDM", "Opponent": "TOR", "Position": "L", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.1442056400303537, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.081726954492631, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 9, "Prior_GP": 29, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 6.540994776288894, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 7.590488461988989, "Current_PP_SOG60": 5.013927576601671, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 8.651385696040869, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 8.153703703703705, "Current_PP_Share": 0.28345834978286616, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.10936227082538141, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 718.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2533.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 5, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.365824915824916, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 1.2407371523982693, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 1.5209878758635176, "Other_State_SOG": 0.0, "Environment_Proxy": 1.1073475417853031, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.2413793103448276, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:42.859487+00:00", "priorGP": 29, "currentTotalSOG": 9.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.3296296296296297, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.00 SOG/game in 9 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 9 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.8109999999999999, "currentIXG": 0.0901111111111111, "priorTOI": 10.310919540229884, "priorPPTOI": 0.4454022988505747, "deploymentChange": -0.7664750957854398, "ppTOIChange": 0.884227330779055, "h2hLog": [], "h2hGames": 0, "h2hAvailableGames": 0, "h2hSOG": null, "opponentDefense": { "team": "TOR", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 332.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 30.181818181818183, "mostAllowedRank": 5, "fiveSogAllowed60": 28.565965583173995, "pkSogAllowed60": 43.340857787810386, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.0, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 130.0, "D": 98.0, "R": 49.0, "L": 55.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 11.818181818181818, "L": 5.0, "R": 4.454545454545454, "D": 8.909090909090908 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 30.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 35.25, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 30.181818181818183, "oppPosSogAllowed": 4.454545454545454, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8476932", "team": "TOR", "name": "Anthony Stolarz", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 4, "savePct": 0.8974358974358975, "gaa": 2.9929333518082304, "gsax": 0.46399999999999864, "goalsAllowed": 12.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 12.463999999999999, "shotsAgainst": 117.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9986972168772468, "factor": 0.9986972168772468, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T20:54:34.227Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.10243513626623091, "goalHistoryGoals": 2.0, "goalHistoryShots": 45.0, "goalExpected": 0.0951950852405539, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.09507106669013345, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.09080445346599601, "goalProbability": 0.0906916893599902, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.011276410600581654, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 9, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 0.9293206287453948, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 6.540994776288894, "Current_PP_SOG60": 5.013927576601671, "Current_5v5_Min": 8.153703703703705, "Current_PP_Share": 0.28345834978286616, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.365824915824916, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.5209878758635176, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0610638532936316, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9495764141752431, "Position_Factor": 0.9668459160608084, "Input_GP": 9, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 718.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2533.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 7.590488461988989, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 9.812643678160919, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.10936227082538141, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9097059588862867, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.382352941176471, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9097059588862867, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9495764141752431, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 6.540994776288894, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 5.013927576601671, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Reviewed October22 projected lineup and coach reports", "ppAssignmentSourceDate": "2026-10-13T18:05:51.141Z", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 54, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476932", "goalieName": "Anthony Stolarz", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8483455", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476932", "goalieName": "Anthony Stolarz", "opponent": "EDM", "games": 5, "availableGames": 5, "shotsAgainst": 140.0, "goalsAgainst": 14.0, "savePct": 0.9, "gaa": 3.2642487046632125, "gsax": -1.5539999999999994, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020891", "date": "20260203", "goalieTeam": "TOR", "opponent": "EDM", "shotsAgainst": 36.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.709 }, { "gameId": "2024020274", "date": "20241116", "goalieTeam": "TOR", "opponent": "EDM", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3640.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.584 }, { "gameId": "2022020660", "date": "20230111", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "EDM", "shotsAgainst": 16.0, "goalsAgainst": 0.0, "seconds": 1200.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.249 }, { "gameId": "2021020049", "date": "20211019", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "EDM", "shotsAgainst": 36.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3461.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.959 }, { "gameId": "2018020494", "date": "20181214", "goalieTeam": "PHI", "opponent": "EDM", "shotsAgainst": 22.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3539.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.945 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.9293206287453948, "adjustedSOG": 0.9293206287453948, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.9293206287453948, "adjustedSOG": 0.9293206287453948, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.10243513626623091, "goalHistoryGoals": 2.0, "goalHistoryShots": 45.0, "goalExpected": 0.0951950852405539, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.0951950852405539, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.09080445346599601, "goalProbability": 0.09080445346599601, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1285309475860348, "modelSOG": 0.9293206287453948, "historyGames": 38, "seasonGames": { "2025": 29, "2026": 9 }, "historyGoals": 2.0, "historyShots": 45.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.044444444444444446, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.10243513626623091, "goalieFactor": 0.9986972168772468, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": 43.73632010943913, "btb": { "id": "8483455", "name": "Isaac Howard", "score": 43.73632010943913, "components": { "Goal model": 33.02325581395349, "SOG model": 23.72093023255814, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 23.72093023255814, "Goalie": 60.73529411764706, "Team H2H": 50.0, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Team H2H unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 0, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 295 } }, { "id": "8480802", "name": "Ryan McLeod", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "WSH", "position": "C", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 0.8, "priorSOG": 1.1111111111111112, "currentTOI": 15.213333333333333, "currentFiveTOI": 11.39, "ppShare": 0.22204773869346733, "rate": 1.1058302325099976, "fifty": 1.0468365308263852, "inputs": { "Player": "Ryan McLeod", "Player_ID": "8480802", "Team": "BUF", "Opponent": "WSH", "Position": "C", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.071680562823561, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 0.9047357003345119, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 10, "Prior_GP": 81, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.6874451273046533, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.5413071874344872, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 4.768211920529802, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 11.800839506172839, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 11.39, "Current_PP_Share": 0.22204773869346733, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.3241257739936054, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 707.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3184.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 5, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.493148148148148, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 1.3879600557771703, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 1.2197411246045038, "Other_State_SOG": 0.22111111111111112, "Environment_Proxy": 1.0834850655013406, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.1111111111111112, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/buffalo-sabres/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:42.878894+00:00", "priorGP": 81, "currentTotalSOG": 8.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.1783333333333332, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.80 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.296, "currentIXG": 0.1296, "priorTOI": 17.611522633744855, "priorPPTOI": 1.5534979423868311, "deploymentChange": -2.398189300411522, "ppTOIChange": -0.3751646090534979, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021213", "date": "20260404", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 16.883333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025021028", "date": "20260312", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 17.433333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020186", "date": "20251101", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 18.083333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2024021171", "date": "20250330", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 17.45 }, { "gameId": "2024020637", "date": "20250106", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 21.733333333333334 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 6, "h2hSOG": 1.2, "opponentDefense": { "team": "WSH", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 263.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 29.22222222222222, "mostAllowedRank": 7, "fiveSogAllowed60": 28.540383918869974, "pkSogAllowed60": 52.820345614607106, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.111111111111114, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "L": 48.0, "D": 68.0, "C": 72.0, "R": 75.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 8.0, "L": 5.333333333333333, "R": 8.333333333333334, "D": 7.555555555555555 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 29.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27.5, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 29.22222222222222, "oppPosSogAllowed": 8.0, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8479292", "team": "WSH", "name": "Charlie Lindgren", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 2, "savePct": 0.896551724137931, "gaa": 3.061224489795918, "gsax": 0.2989999999999995, "goalsAllowed": 6.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 6.2989999999999995, "shotsAgainst": 58.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.99868053226692, "factor": 0.99868053226692, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T14:45:41.433Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.16162488813196846, "goalHistoryGoals": 35.0, "goalHistoryShots": 196.0, "goalExpected": 0.11871231391917336, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.11855567685143775, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.11193675254885477, "goalProbability": 0.1117976380308496, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.013911451800516228, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 0.7344927832045488, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.6874451273046533, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 11.39, "Current_PP_Share": 0.22204773869346733, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.493148148148148, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.2197411246045038, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.1, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.053751909733539, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0558974457897532, "Position_Factor": 0.975132863651709, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 707.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3184.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.5413071874344872, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 4.768211920529802, "Prior_5v5_Min": 12.759465020576132, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.3241257739936054, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9278320454876804, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.437908496732026, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9278320454876804, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0558974457897532, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 3.4554471284594466, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 0.6666666666666666 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 1.3333333333333333 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021213", "date": "20260404", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 16.883333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025021028", "date": "20260312", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 17.433333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020186", "date": "20251101", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 18.083333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2024021171", "date": "20250330", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 17.45 }, { "gameId": "2024020637", "date": "20250106", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 21.733333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020480", "date": "20241214", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 17.866666666666667 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff latest reported chart; October 21 final lineup pending", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 97, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 16, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479292", "goalieName": "Charlie Lindgren", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8480802", "goals": 0, "sog": 7, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 5, "recordedAttempts": 17, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021028", "date": "20260312", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 3 }, { "gameId": "2025020186", "date": "20251101", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 4 }, { "gameId": "2024020637", "date": "20250106", "season": 2024, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2023020298", "date": "20231124", "season": 2023, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 6 }, { "gameId": "2022020195", "date": "20221107", "season": 2022, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 3 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479292", "goalieName": "Charlie Lindgren", "opponent": "BUF", "games": 5, "availableGames": 8, "shotsAgainst": 128.0, "goalsAgainst": 16.0, "savePct": 0.875, "gaa": 3.275891486094523, "gsax": -2.283, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021028", "date": "20260312", "goalieTeam": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.161 }, { "gameId": "2025020186", "date": "20251101", "goalieTeam": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3892.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.677 }, { "gameId": "2024020637", "date": "20250106", "goalieTeam": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "shotsAgainst": 27.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3900.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.647 }, { "gameId": "2023021255", "date": "20240411", "goalieTeam": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "shotsAgainst": 16.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3458.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.149 }, { "gameId": "2023021189", "date": "20240402", "goalieTeam": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "shotsAgainst": 31.0, "goalsAgainst": 6.0, "seconds": 2733.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.083 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.7344927832045488, "adjustedSOG": 0.7344927832045488, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.7494824318413763, "adjustedSOG": 0.7344927832045488, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.16162488813196846, "goalHistoryGoals": 35.0, "goalHistoryShots": 196.0, "goalExpected": 0.12113501420323812, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.12097518046065076, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.11408565950090073, "goalProbability": 0.11394404917949458, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.014161032140615204 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12840966887062666, "modelSOG": 0.7344927832045488, "historyGames": 170, "seasonGames": { "2024": 79, "2025": 81, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 35.0, "historyShots": 196.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.17857142857142858, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.16162488813196846, "goalieFactor": 0.99868053226692, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 50.216095126350936, "btb": { "id": "8480802", "name": "Ryan McLeod", "score": 50.216095126350936, "components": { "Goal model": 42.325581395348834, "SOG model": 14.186046511627907, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 38.48837209302326, "Goalie": 87.05882352941177, "Team H2H": 59.44843342036554, "Goalie H2H": 45.696919464014364 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 6, "goalieH2HShots": 7, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 203 } }, { "id": "8481607", "name": "Albert Johansson", "team": "DET", "opponent": "CGY", "position": "D", "currentGP": 9, "currentSOG": 1.4444444444444444, "priorSOG": 0.7439024390243902, "currentTOI": 15.61111111111111, "currentFiveTOI": 13.233333333333333, "ppShare": 0.02095238095238095, "rate": 0.8455983072965151, "fifty": 1.073187710196138, "inputs": { "Player": "Albert Johansson", "Player_ID": "8481607", "Team": "DET", "Opponent": "CGY", "Position": "D", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 0.8179290187772587, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.1102739456745352, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 9, "Prior_GP": 82, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 6.045340050377834, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.0781270379548715, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 3.585657370517928, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 13.470833333333331, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 13.233333333333333, "Current_PP_Share": 0.02095238095238095, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.03851554048351582, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 66.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3150.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 5, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.430208333333333, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.142387278224483, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.11377579365079364, "Other_State_SOG": 0.022086720867208674, "Environment_Proxy": 1.096640755468006, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 0.7439024390243902, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:42.898066+00:00", "priorGP": 82, "currentTotalSOG": 13.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.12222222222222223, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.44 SOG/game in 9 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 9 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.49, "currentIXG": 0.05444444444444444, "priorTOI": 15.939837398373983, "priorPPTOI": 0.2040650406504065, "deploymentChange": -0.3287262872628727, "ppTOIChange": -0.08184281842818428, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021063", "date": "20260316", "team": "DET", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 16.5 }, { "gameId": "2025020477", "date": "20251210", "team": "DET", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 17.55 }, { "gameId": "2024020834", "date": "20250201", "team": "DET", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 19.95 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 0.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "CGY", "games": 8, "sogAllowedTotal": 237.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 29.625, "mostAllowedRank": 6, "fiveSogAllowed60": 29.8086265894977, "pkSogAllowed60": 38.789888106092, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.5, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 59.0, "C": 89.0, "R": 48.0, "L": 41.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 11.125, "L": 5.125, "R": 6.0, "D": 7.375 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 30.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.5, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 29.625, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.375, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8482445", "team": "CGY", "name": "Devin Cooley", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 3, "savePct": 0.8681318681318682, "gaa": 4.010025062656641, "gsax": -2.561, "goalsAllowed": 12.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 9.439, "shotsAgainst": 91.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0263021756310153, "factor": 1.0263021756310153, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T16:24:22.507Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.05301655943245789, "goalHistoryGoals": 6.0, "goalHistoryShots": 122.0, "goalExpected": 0.07516772628419223, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.07714480102270314, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.07241210759013286, "goalProbability": 0.0742442064849639, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.1832098894831033, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 9, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.4178160010544352, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 6.045340050377834, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 13.233333333333333, "Current_PP_Share": 0.02095238095238095, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.430208333333333, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.11377579365079364, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.1111111111111111, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0746225056341803, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9180727421999328, "Position_Factor": 0.9914347993653367, "Input_GP": 9, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 66.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3150.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.0781270379548715, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 3.585657370517928, "Prior_5v5_Min": 14.024999999999999, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.03851554048351582, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0017299327797549, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.34640522875817, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0017299327797549, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9180727421999328, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 6.045340050377834, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021063", "date": "20260316", "team": "DET", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 16.5 }, { "gameId": "2025020477", "date": "20251210", "team": "DET", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 17.55 }, { "gameId": "2024020834", "date": "20250201", "team": "DET", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 19.95 }, { "gameId": "2024020350", "date": "20241127", "team": "DET", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 10.233333333333333 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Reviewed October22 projected lineup and coach reports", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. 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Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482445", "goalieName": "Devin Cooley", "opponent": "DET", "games": 1, "availableGames": 1, "shotsAgainst": 29.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "savePct": 0.8620689655172413, "gaa": 4.1248925809223715, "gsax": -1.0219999999999998, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020477", "date": "20251210", "goalieTeam": "CGY", "opponent": "DET", "shotsAgainst": 29.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3491.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.978 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.4178160010544352, "adjustedSOG": 1.4178160010544352, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.4467510214841175, "adjustedSOG": 1.4178160010544352, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.05301655943245789, "goalHistoryGoals": 6.0, "goalHistoryShots": 122.0, "goalExpected": 0.07670176151448187, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.07670176151448187, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.07383396922452519, "goalProbability": 0.07383396922452519, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05769676194005652, "modelSOG": 1.4178160010544352, "historyGames": 152, "seasonGames": { "2024": 61, "2025": 82, "2026": 9 }, "historyGoals": 6.0, "historyShots": 122.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.04918032786885246, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.05301655943245789, "goalieFactor": 1.0263021756310153, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 41.69748396656617, "btb": { "id": "8481607", "name": "Albert Johansson", "score": 41.69748396656617, "components": { "Goal model": 25.58139534883721, "SOG model": 53.25581395348837, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 13.953488372093023, "Goalie": 71.32352941176471, "Team H2H": 35.93808280492354, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 325 } }, { "id": "8484911", "name": "Collin Graf", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "BOS", "position": "R", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 1.3, "priorSOG": 1.4691358024691359, "currentTOI": 14.713333333333333, "currentFiveTOI": 11.84, "ppShare": 0.00891484783276975, "rate": 1.408355514915628, "fifty": 1.3883164728916144, "inputs": { "Player": "Collin Graf", "Player_ID": "8484911", "Team": "SJS", "Opponent": "BOS", "Position": "R", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.4095372982091474, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.3140900152294948, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 10, "Prior_GP": 81, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 6.081081081081081, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.805533596837945, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 4.6895353886235345, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 12.192320987654321, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 11.84, "Current_PP_Share": 0.00891484783276975, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.09429757479576419, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 29.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3253.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 5, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.0425, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.17411584041001132, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.04495312019674147, "Other_State_SOG": 0.16555555555555557, "Environment_Proxy": 1.0253180054689388, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.4691358024691359, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:42.917280+00:00", "priorGP": 81, "currentTotalSOG": 13.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.04833333333333333, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.30 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.934, "currentIXG": 0.1934, "priorTOI": 16.442798353909463, "priorPPTOI": 0.47386831275720165, "deploymentChange": -1.7294650205761304, "ppTOIChange": -0.4255349794238683, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2026020105", "date": "20261013", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 13.316666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025021027", "date": "20260312", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 17.466666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2025020351", "date": "20251123", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 17.233333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024021117", "date": "20250322", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 20.516666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020740", "date": "20250120", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 9.9 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 5, "h2hSOG": 1.6, "opponentDefense": { "team": "BOS", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 280.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 28.0, "mostAllowedRank": 11, "fiveSogAllowed60": 26.539776154413243, "pkSogAllowed60": 48.89206576125804, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 42.4, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 68.0, "R": 50.0, "L": 68.0, "C": 94.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.4, "L": 6.8, "R": 5.0, "D": 6.8 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 26.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 25.0, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 28.0, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.0, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8480280", "team": "BOS", "name": "Jeremy Swayman", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 8, "savePct": 0.9279279279279279, "gaa": 1.976189659313137, "gsax": 7.695, "goalsAllowed": 16.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 23.695, "shotsAgainst": 222.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9412127550171275, "factor": 0.9412127550171275, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T14:59:19.712Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.14649027348126456, "goalHistoryGoals": 27.0, "goalHistoryShots": 172.0, "goalExpected": 0.1805096376474218, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.16989797335727327, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.16515536528006997, "goalProbability": 0.15624910272360562, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.8906262556464345, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.2322295081967212, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 6.081081081081081, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 11.84, "Current_PP_Share": 0.00891484783276975, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.0425, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.04495312019674147, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.1, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0194233133624404, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.013580746919003, "Position_Factor": 0.9879488680718189, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 29.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3253.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.805533596837945, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 4.6895353886235345, "Prior_5v5_Min": 13.01440329218107, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.09429757479576419, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9644808743169399, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.382352941176471, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9644808743169399, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.013580746919003, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 6.081081081081081, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.0 }, { "season": "2026", "label": "2026–27", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 2.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2026020105", "date": "20261013", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 13.316666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025021027", "date": "20260312", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 17.466666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2025020351", "date": "20251123", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 17.233333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024021117", "date": "20250322", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 20.516666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020740", "date": "20250120", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 9.9 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Reviewed October22 projected lineup and coach reports", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 141, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480280", "goalieName": "Jeremy Swayman", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8484911", "goals": 1, "sog": 5, "shootingPct": 0.2, "gamesWithAttempts": 3, "recordedAttempts": 7, "log": [ { "gameId": "2026020105", "date": "20261013", "season": 2026, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2 }, { "gameId": "2025021027", "date": "20260312", "season": 2025, "goals": 1, "sog": 2, "attempts": 4 }, { "gameId": "2025020351", "date": "20251123", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480280", "goalieName": "Jeremy Swayman", "opponent": "SJS", "games": 5, "availableGames": 6, "shotsAgainst": 123.0, "goalsAgainst": 9.0, "savePct": 0.926829268292683, "gaa": 2.2632020117351215, "gsax": 2.58, "log": [ { "gameId": "2026020105", "date": "20261013", "goalieTeam": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "shotsAgainst": 38.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.146 }, { "gameId": "2025021027", "date": "20260312", "goalieTeam": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "shotsAgainst": 28.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3406.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.91 }, { "gameId": "2025020351", "date": "20251123", "goalieTeam": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3588.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.577 }, { "gameId": "2023020340", "date": "20231130", "goalieTeam": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "shotsAgainst": 26.0, "goalsAgainst": 0.0, "seconds": 3574.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.886 }, { "gameId": "2022020748", "date": "20230122", "goalieTeam": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "shotsAgainst": 1.0, "goalsAgainst": 0.0, "seconds": 148.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 0.061 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.2322295081967212, "adjustedSOG": 1.2322295081967212, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.2573770491803278, "adjustedSOG": 1.2322295081967212, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.14649027348126456, "goalHistoryGoals": 27.0, "goalHistoryShots": 172.0, "goalExpected": 0.18419350780349167, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.17336527893599318, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.16822516666834708, "goalProbability": 0.15916957889923344, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.9055587769113638 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12845354386903965, "modelSOG": 1.2322295081967212, "historyGames": 124, "seasonGames": { "2024": 33, "2025": 81, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 27.0, "historyShots": 172.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.1569767441860465, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.14649027348126456, "goalieFactor": 0.9412127550171275, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 53.423035445147654, "btb": { "id": "8484911", "name": "Collin Graf", "score": 53.423035445147654, "components": { "Goal model": 60.93023255813954, "SOG model": 42.7906976744186, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 61.86046511627907, "Goalie": 34.26470588235294, "Team H2H": 61.70583115752828, "Goalie H2H": 52.29062276306371 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 5, "goalieH2HShots": 5, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 165 } }, { "id": "8481554", "name": "Kaapo Kakko", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "position": "L", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 0.8, "priorSOG": 1.2, "currentTOI": 13.905000000000001, "currentFiveTOI": 11.475, "ppShare": 0.48752327746741153, "rate": 1.1288976894004432, "fifty": 1.002879798671955, "inputs": { "Player": "Kaapo Kakko", "Player_ID": "8481554", "Team": "SEA", "Opponent": "MIN", "Position": "R", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.3551400027433036, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.2310131698023794, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 10, "Prior_GP": 65, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.6601307189542482, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.1253889804136925, "Current_PP_SOG60": 2.750190985485103, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 4.622157006603081, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 11.814576923076922, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 11.475, "Current_PP_Share": 0.48752327746741153, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.33581238061400537, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1309.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2685.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 6, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.085, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 2.247620892771917, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 2.479055865921788, "Other_State_SOG": 0.013846153846153847, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9620662188708584, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.2, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/seattle-kraken/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:42.936389+00:00", "priorGP": 65, "currentTotalSOG": 8.0, "currentPPTOI": 2.1816666666666666, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.80 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.003, "currentIXG": 0.10029999999999999, "priorTOI": 14.257435897435897, "priorPPTOI": 1.3979487179487178, "deploymentChange": -0.3524358974358961, "ppTOIChange": 0.7837179487179489, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021240", "date": "20260407", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 14.683333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020693", "date": "20260108", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 16.766666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020465", "date": "20251208", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 15.133333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024021088", "date": "20250319", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 16.716666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2024020982", "date": "20250304", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 16.133333333333333 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 5, "h2hSOG": 1.4, "opponentDefense": { "team": "MIN", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 261.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 26.1, "mostAllowedRank": 21, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.40367597004765, "pkSogAllowed60": 45.30289727831431, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 40.4, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 77.0, "C": 114.0, "R": 29.0, "L": 41.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 11.4, "L": 4.1, "R": 2.9, "D": 7.7 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 24.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 28.333333333333332, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 26.1, "oppPosSogAllowed": 4.1, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8482661", "team": "MIN", "name": "Jesper Wallstedt", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 9, "savePct": 0.9152542372881356, "gaa": 2.1979363819525, "gsax": 6.934999999999999, "goalsAllowed": 20.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 26.935, "shotsAgainst": 236.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9495343259526882, "factor": 0.9495343259526882, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T18:37:27.914Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.13810931707105606, "goalHistoryGoals": 29.0, "goalHistoryShots": 203.0, "goalExpected": 0.10278876428819005, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.09760146001389627, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.09768244495698995, "goalProbability": 0.09298968839161904, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.4692756565370909, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 0.7442565532005788, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.6601307189542482, "Current_PP_SOG60": 2.750190985485103, "Current_5v5_Min": 11.475, "Current_PP_Share": 0.48752327746741153, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.085, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 2.479055865921788, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.957587153238364, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9748801923935355, "Position_Factor": 0.9806465795507668, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1309.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2685.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.1253889804136925, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 4.622157006603081, "Prior_5v5_Min": 12.606923076923078, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.33581238061400537, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9049709489993545, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.062091503267974, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9049709489993545, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9748801923935355, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 3.6601307189542482, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 2.750190985485103, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 1.3333333333333333 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021240", "date": "20260407", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 14.683333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020693", "date": "20260108", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 16.766666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020465", "date": "20251208", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 15.133333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024021088", "date": "20250319", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 16.716666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2024020982", "date": "20250304", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 16.133333333333333 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 106, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 13, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482661", "goalieName": "Jesper Wallstedt", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8481554", "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 2, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020693", "date": "20260108", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482661", "goalieName": "Jesper Wallstedt", "opponent": "SEA", "games": 2, "availableGames": 2, "shotsAgainst": 55.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "savePct": 0.9272727272727272, "gaa": 1.9647973802701597, "gsax": 2.874, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021240", "date": "20260407", "goalieTeam": "MIN", "opponent": "SEA", "shotsAgainst": 27.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.053 }, { "gameId": "2025020693", "date": "20260108", "goalieTeam": "MIN", "opponent": "SEA", "shotsAgainst": 28.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3729.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.821 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.7442565532005788, "adjustedSOG": 0.7442565532005788, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.7442565532005788, "adjustedSOG": 0.7442565532005788, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.13810931707105606, "goalHistoryGoals": 29.0, "goalHistoryShots": 203.0, "goalExpected": 0.10278876428819005, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.10278876428819005, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.09768244495698995, "goalProbability": 0.09768244495698995, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12847123072529984, "modelSOG": 0.7442565532005788, "historyGames": 154, "seasonGames": { "2024": 79, "2025": 65, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 29.0, "historyShots": 203.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.14285714285714285, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.13810931707105606, "goalieFactor": 0.9495343259526882, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 40.69197217983443, "btb": { "id": "8481554", "name": "Kaapo Kakko", "score": 40.69197217983443, "components": { "Goal model": 36.97674418604651, "SOG model": 14.883720930232558, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 25.813953488372093, "Goalie": 23.676470588235293, "Team H2H": 50.739773716275025, "Goalie H2H": 49.92428831011508 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 5, "goalieH2HShots": 2, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 341 } }, { "id": "8477949", "name": "Alex Tuch", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "position": "L", "currentGP": 9, "currentSOG": 2.6666666666666665, "priorSOG": 2.4683544303797467, "currentTOI": 18.794444444444444, "currentFiveTOI": 12.52037037037037, "ppShare": 0.44775526420341677, "rate": 2.3068568934000457, "fifty": 2.239210213560016, "inputs": { "Player": "Alex Tuch", "Player_ID": "8477949", "Team": "WSH", "Opponent": "BUF", "Position": "R", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 2.152201898321524, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 2.124692700637235, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 9, "Prior_GP": 79, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 7.986984173938766, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 7.678212021989245, "Current_PP_SOG60": 6.388642413487134, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 12.570507655116842, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 12.978056727613689, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 12.52037037037037, "Current_PP_Share": 0.44775526420341677, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.3277536785408119, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1127.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2517.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 5, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.500555555555556, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 1.8531253009311393, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 2.015147441839933, "Other_State_SOG": 0.3625879043600563, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9496227273390297, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 2.4683544303797467, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:42.956718+00:00", "priorGP": 79, "currentTotalSOG": 24.0, "currentPPTOI": 2.087037037037037, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.67 SOG/game in 9 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 9 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 4.471, "currentIXG": 0.49677777777777776, "priorTOI": 18.993881856540085, "priorPPTOI": 1.570886075949367, "deploymentChange": -0.1994374120956408, "ppTOIChange": 0.51615096108767, "h2hLog": [], "h2hGames": 0, "h2hAvailableGames": 0, "h2hSOG": null, "opponentDefense": { "team": "BUF", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 257.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 25.7, "mostAllowedRank": 24, "fiveSogAllowed60": 21.645723550871505, "pkSogAllowed60": 62.21198156682028, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 40.1, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 61.0, "L": 55.0, "D": 65.0, "C": 76.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.6, "L": 5.5, "R": 6.1, "D": 6.5 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 30.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.25, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 25.7, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.5, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8480045", "team": "BUF", "name": "Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 8, "savePct": 0.8629441624365483, "gaa": 3.5349310833909153, "gsax": -3.6580000000000013, "goalsAllowed": 27.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 23.342, "shotsAgainst": 197.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.035448902624297, "factor": 1.035448902624297, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T15:43:35.500Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.16827782170618874, "goalHistoryGoals": 74.0, "goalHistoryShots": 416.0, "goalExpected": 0.4647444345271341, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.48121911473187046, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.37170434465051283, "goalProbability": 0.3819705164989121, "goalAdjustmentPP": 1.0266171848399286, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 9, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 2.7617687810255402, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 7.986984173938766, "Current_PP_SOG60": 6.388642413487134, "Current_5v5_Min": 12.52037037037037, "Current_PP_Share": 0.44775526420341677, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.500555555555556, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 2.015147441839933, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.7777777777777778, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.922717716387106, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.1429256259066152, "Position_Factor": 1.0189267959999297, "Input_GP": 9, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1127.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2517.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 7.678212021989245, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 12.570507655116842, "Prior_5v5_Min": 14.045991561181436, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.3277536785408119, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0432537120723047, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.062091503267974, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0432537120723047, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.1429256259066152, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 8.402800933644547, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 7.43801652892562, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "NHL.com October 20 game-specific projected lineup", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 231, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. 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Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480045", "goalieName": "Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen", "opponent": "WSH", "games": 5, "availableGames": 10, "shotsAgainst": 138.0, "goalsAgainst": 13.0, "savePct": 0.9057971014492754, "gaa": 2.5547246028713357, "gsax": 1.2270000000000003, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021028", "date": "20260312", "goalieTeam": "BUF", "opponent": "WSH", "shotsAgainst": 22.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3513.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.736 }, { "gameId": "2025020186", "date": "20251101", "goalieTeam": "BUF", "opponent": "WSH", "shotsAgainst": 34.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3868.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.692 }, { "gameId": "2024020637", "date": "20250106", "goalieTeam": "BUF", "opponent": "WSH", "shotsAgainst": 28.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3900.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.29 }, { "gameId": "2024020480", "date": "20241214", "goalieTeam": "BUF", "opponent": "WSH", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3438.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.234 }, { "gameId": "2023021255", "date": "20240411", "goalieTeam": "BUF", "opponent": "WSH", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.275 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 2.7617687810255402, "adjustedSOG": 2.7617687810255402, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 2.7617687810255402, "adjustedSOG": 2.7617687810255402, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.16827782170618874, "goalHistoryGoals": 74.0, "goalHistoryShots": 416.0, "goalExpected": 0.4647444345271341, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.48121911473187046, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.37170434465051283, "goalProbability": 0.3819705164989121, "goalAdjustmentPP": 1.0266171848399286 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12831356000393382, "modelSOG": 2.7617687810255402, "historyGames": 170, "seasonGames": { "2024": 82, "2025": 79, "2026": 9 }, "historyGoals": 74.0, "historyShots": 416.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.1778846153846154, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.16827782170618874, "goalieFactor": 1.035448902624297, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 62.03522571819426, "btb": { "id": "8477949", "name": "Alex Tuch", "score": 62.03522571819426, "components": { "Goal model": 97.44186046511628, "SOG model": 91.86046511627907, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 96.74418604651163, "Goalie": 7.794117647058823, "Team H2H": 50.0, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Team H2H unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 0, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 64 } }, { "id": "8479977", "name": "Kailer Yamamoto", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "TBL", "position": "R", "currentGP": 5, "currentSOG": 2.4, "priorSOG": 1.0169491525423728, "currentTOI": 14.66, "currentFiveTOI": 13.343333333333334, "ppShare": 0.2306501547987616, "rate": 1.1147086283663916, "fifty": 1.53276931806913, "inputs": { "Player": "Kailer Yamamoto", "Player_ID": "8479977", "Team": "UTA", "Opponent": "TBL", "Position": "R", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.2376615377685816, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.617928776357696, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 5, "Prior_GP": 59, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 9.892580564576567, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.264086726333039, "Current_PP_SOG60": 12.080536912751677, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 2.5174825174825175, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 12.701774011299435, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 13.343333333333334, "Current_PP_Share": 0.2306501547987616, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.0848238880735559, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 298.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1292.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 1, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.821018518518519, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.9010593278734015, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 1.1119686675839928, "Other_State_SOG": 0.015254237288135594, "Environment_Proxy": 0.8844868901771036, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.0169491525423728, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/utah-mammoth/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:42.977079+00:00", "priorGP": 59, "currentTotalSOG": 12.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.9933333333333334, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.40 SOG/game in 5 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 5 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.974, "currentIXG": 0.3948, "priorTOI": 11.79632768361582, "priorPPTOI": 0.403954802259887, "deploymentChange": 2.8636723163841804, "ppTOIChange": 0.5893785310734464, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020825", "date": "20260126", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 10.1 }, { "gameId": "2025020194", "date": "20251102", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 12.166666666666666 } ], "h2hGames": 2, "h2hAvailableGames": 2, "h2hSOG": 2.5, "opponentDefense": { "team": "TBL", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 218.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 24.22222222222222, "mostAllowedRank": 29, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.310572168589594, "pkSogAllowed60": 47.9002079002079, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 36.333333333333336, "positionUnassignedSOG": 1.0, "positionTotals": { "L": 36.0, "R": 49.0, "D": 66.0, "C": 66.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.333333333333333, "L": 4.0, "R": 5.444444444444445, "D": 7.333333333333333 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 24.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.25, "positionSourceDifference": 1.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 24.22222222222222, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.444444444444445, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8483710", "team": "TBL", "name": "Dennis Hildeby", "status": "Unconfirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 2, "savePct": 0.92, "gaa": 2.0089285714285716, "gsax": 0.8719999999999999, "goalsAllowed": 4.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.872, "shotsAgainst": 50.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9926942170737747, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Starter remains unconfirmed per Daily Faceoff; no Model Goal adjustment.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": null }, "goalShootingPct": 0.16132057607160566, "goalHistoryGoals": 17.0, "goalHistoryShots": 85.0, "goalExpected": 0.39307991123791064, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.39307991123791064, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.3250251926414678, "goalProbability": 0.3250251926414678, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 5, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 2.4366384054036203, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 9.892580564576567, "Current_PP_SOG60": 12.080536912751677, "Current_5v5_Min": 13.343333333333334, "Current_PP_Share": 0.2306501547987616, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.821018518518519, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.1119686675839928, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9588832837562793, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0032616490671127, "Position_Factor": 1.0162667912072254, "Input_GP": 5, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 298.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1292.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.264086726333039, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 2.5174825174825175, "Prior_5v5_Min": 11.204802259887007, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.0848238880735559, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.005464480874317, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.382352941176471, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.005464480874317, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0032616490671127, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 9.892580564576567, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 12.080536912751677, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020825", "date": "20260126", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 10.1 }, { "gameId": "2025020194", "date": "20251102", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 12.166666666666666 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 73, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8483710", "goalieName": "Dennis Hildeby", "starterStatus": "Unconfirmed", "shooterId": "8479977", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8483710", "goalieName": "Dennis Hildeby", "opponent": "UTA", "games": 1, "availableGames": 1, "shotsAgainst": 41.0, "goalsAgainst": 6.0, "savePct": 0.8536585365853658, "gaa": 6.0, "gsax": -1.2770000000000001, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020733", "date": "20260113", "goalieTeam": "TOR", "opponent": "UTA", "shotsAgainst": 41.0, "goalsAgainst": 6.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.723 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 2.4366384054036203, "adjustedSOG": 2.4366384054036203, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 2.4366384054036203, "adjustedSOG": 2.4366384054036203, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.16132057607160566, "goalHistoryGoals": 17.0, "goalHistoryShots": 85.0, "goalExpected": 0.39307991123791064, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.39307991123791064, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.3250251926414678, "goalProbability": 0.3250251926414678, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12844306573247044, "modelSOG": 2.4366384054036203, "historyGames": 76, "seasonGames": { "2024": 12, "2025": 59, "2026": 5 }, "historyGoals": 17.0, "historyShots": 85.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.2, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.16132057607160566, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 64.70968182646183, "btb": { "id": "8479977", "name": "Kailer Yamamoto", "score": 64.70968182646183, "components": { "Goal model": 94.65116279069767, "SOG model": 85.11627906976744, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 86.74418604651163, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 52.32811140121845, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Unconfirmed", "h2hGames": 2, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 37 } }, { "id": "8483890", "name": "Braeden Bowman", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "CBJ", "position": "R", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 1.1818181818181819, "priorSOG": 1.3888888888888888, "currentTOI": 13.510606060606062, "currentFiveTOI": 11.48939393939394, "ppShare": 0.26953748006379585, "rate": 1.3750257327187172, "fifty": 1.2956196693978217, "inputs": { "Player": "Braeden Bowman", "Player_ID": "8483890", "Team": "VGK", "Opponent": "CBJ", "Position": "R", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.4398084064184302, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.2880254715902069, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 11, "Prior_GP": 54, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.7979691415007255, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.375764993880049, "Current_PP_SOG60": 17.75147928994083, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 11.476213830308975, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 11.824983164983166, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 11.48939393939394, "Current_PP_Share": 0.26953748006379585, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.2756346596926306, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1014.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3762.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 6, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.392708333333333, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 1.463401108303973, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 1.453537014885699, "Other_State_SOG": 0.016666666666666666, "Environment_Proxy": 1.0241190783267258, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.3888888888888888, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/vegas-golden-knights/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:42.999008+00:00", "priorGP": 54, "currentTotalSOG": 13.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.5363636363636362, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.18 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 2.4939999999999998, "currentIXG": 0.2267272727272727, "priorTOI": 14.131172839506174, "priorPPTOI": 1.258641975308642, "deploymentChange": -0.6205667789001126, "ppTOIChange": 0.2777216610549942, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020692", "date": "20260108", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 9.4 }, { "gameId": "2025020502", "date": "20251213", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 14.216666666666667 } ], "h2hGames": 2, "h2hAvailableGames": 2, "h2hSOG": 0.5, "opponentDefense": { "team": "CBJ", "games": 8, "sogAllowedTotal": 222.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.75, "mostAllowedRank": 13, "fiveSogAllowed60": 26.021128266541208, "pkSogAllowed60": 45.718967636214664, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 43.125, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 66.0, "D": 61.0, "R": 49.0, "L": 46.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 8.25, "L": 5.75, "R": 6.125, "D": 7.625 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 28.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.666666666666668, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.75, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.125, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8475660", "team": "CBJ", "name": "Cam Talbot", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 4, "savePct": 0.8674698795180723, "gaa": 3.3959351685104195, "gsax": -0.8840000000000003, "goalsAllowed": 11.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 10.116, "shotsAgainst": 83.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0106708091071457, "factor": 1.0106708091071457, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T15:32:32.146Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.12154728774092623, "goalHistoryGoals": 10.0, "goalHistoryShots": 88.0, "goalExpected": 0.14228427730984636, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.14380256567196792, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.13262535349637333, "goalProbability": 0.1339412790977069, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.13159256013335618, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.1706084105563943, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.7979691415007255, "Current_PP_SOG60": 17.75147928994083, "Current_5v5_Min": 11.48939393939394, "Current_PP_Share": 0.26953748006379585, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.392708333333333, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.453537014885699, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0080456056426796, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9827600403123256, "Position_Factor": 1.0129856632588874, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1014.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3762.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.375764993880049, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 11.476213830308975, "Prior_5v5_Min": 12.608024691358025, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.2756346596926306, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0613236187006678, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.382352941176471, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0613236187006678, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9827600403123256, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 3.7979691415007255, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 17.75147928994083, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020692", "date": "20260108", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 9.4 }, { "gameId": "2025020502", "date": "20251213", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 14.216666666666667 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 98, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 18, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475660", "goalieName": "Cam Talbot", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8483890", "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 5, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020970", "date": "20260304", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 5 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475660", "goalieName": "Cam Talbot", "opponent": "VGK", "games": 5, "availableGames": 22, "shotsAgainst": 160.0, "goalsAgainst": 16.0, "savePct": 0.9, "gaa": 3.176704169424222, "gsax": 0.6329999999999996, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020970", "date": "20260304", "goalieTeam": "DET", "opponent": "VGK", "shotsAgainst": 25.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3728.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.397 }, { "gameId": "2024021115", "date": "20250322", "goalieTeam": "DET", "opponent": "VGK", "shotsAgainst": 35.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3491.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.784 }, { "gameId": "2023020544", "date": "20231228", "goalieTeam": "LAK", "opponent": "VGK", "shotsAgainst": 32.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3478.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.46 }, { "gameId": "2023020192", "date": "20231108", "goalieTeam": "LAK", "opponent": "VGK", "shotsAgainst": 38.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.55 }, { "gameId": "2023020125", "date": "20231028", "goalieTeam": "LAK", "opponent": "VGK", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3835.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.442 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.1706084105563943, "adjustedSOG": 1.1706084105563943, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.1944983781187697, "adjustedSOG": 1.1706084105563943, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. 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Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476932", "goalieName": "Anthony Stolarz", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8479368", "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 4, "log": [ { "gameId": "2023020253", "date": "20231117", "season": 2023, "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 4 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476932", "goalieName": "Anthony Stolarz", "opponent": "EDM", "games": 5, "availableGames": 5, "shotsAgainst": 140.0, "goalsAgainst": 14.0, "savePct": 0.9, "gaa": 3.2642487046632125, "gsax": -1.5539999999999994, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020891", "date": "20260203", "goalieTeam": "TOR", "opponent": "EDM", "shotsAgainst": 36.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.709 }, { "gameId": "2024020274", "date": "20241116", "goalieTeam": "TOR", "opponent": "EDM", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3640.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.584 }, { "gameId": "2022020660", "date": "20230111", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "EDM", "shotsAgainst": 16.0, "goalsAgainst": 0.0, "seconds": 1200.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.249 }, { "gameId": "2021020049", "date": "20211019", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "EDM", "shotsAgainst": 36.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3461.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.959 }, { "gameId": "2018020494", "date": "20181214", "goalieTeam": "PHI", "opponent": "EDM", "shotsAgainst": 22.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3539.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.945 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.9935749638783855, "adjustedSOG": 0.9935749638783855, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.9935749638783855, "adjustedSOG": 0.9935749638783855, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. 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Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.435, "currentIXG": 0.04833333333333333, "priorTOI": 12.015384615384615, "priorPPTOI": 0.10192307692307692, "deploymentChange": 2.7920227920227934, "ppTOIChange": 1.9591880341880343, "h2hLog": [], "h2hGames": 0, "h2hAvailableGames": 0, "h2hSOG": null, "opponentDefense": { "team": "ANA", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 239.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 26.555555555555557, "mostAllowedRank": 18, "fiveSogAllowed60": 25.834281008587897, "pkSogAllowed60": 38.93928820655967, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 43.333333333333336, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 54.0, "C": 91.0, "R": 57.0, "L": 37.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.11111111111111, "L": 4.111111111111111, "R": 6.333333333333333, "D": 6.0 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 28.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.2, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 26.555555555555557, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.0, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8480843", "team": "ANA", "name": "Lukas Dostal", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.8813559322033898, "gaa": 3.1634446397188047, "gsax": 2.846, "goalsAllowed": 21.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 23.846, "shotsAgainst": 177.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9815060369171769, "factor": 0.9815060369171769, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T16:38:16.530Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.05167249941113835, "goalHistoryGoals": 1.0, "goalHistoryShots": 31.0, "goalExpected": 0.03237172285257893, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.03177304140521595, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.031853367045431916, "goalProbability": 0.031273582082021745, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.057978496341017094, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 9, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 0.6264787502344233, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 1.6170085342117084, "Current_PP_SOG60": 6.46900269541779, "Current_5v5_Min": 12.368518518518519, "Current_PP_Share": 0.42562141491395794, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.042592592592593, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 2.1462353940939027, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.1111111111111111, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0050173142237073, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9117211340641708, "Position_Factor": 0.9807721620568941, "Input_GP": 9, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1113.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2615.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.023685536704183, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 22.641509433962263, "Prior_5v5_Min": 11.448076923076922, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.023936568643866153, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9131859898857464, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.34640522875817, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9131859898857464, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9117211340641708, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 1.6170085342117084, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 6.46900269541779, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff latest reported chart; October 21 final lineup pending", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 22, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. 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Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480843", "goalieName": "Lukas Dostal", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8483460", "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 2, "log": [ { "gameId": "2023020084", "date": "20231024", "season": 2023, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480843", "goalieName": "Lukas Dostal", "opponent": "PHI", "games": 5, "availableGames": 5, "shotsAgainst": 155.0, "goalsAgainst": 18.0, "savePct": 0.8838709677419355, "gaa": 3.646595385481148, "gsax": -2.507999999999999, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021082", "date": "20260318", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 28.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3704.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.611 }, { "gameId": "2025020670", "date": "20260106", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 38.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3560.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.171 }, { "gameId": "2024020568", "date": "20241228", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3472.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.781 }, { "gameId": "2023020208", "date": "20231110", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 35.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3450.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.281 }, { "gameId": "2023020117", "date": "20231028", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3584.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.648 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.6264787502344233, "adjustedSOG": 0.6264787502344233, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.6264787502344233, "adjustedSOG": 0.6264787502344233, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.05167249941113835, "goalHistoryGoals": 1.0, "goalHistoryShots": 31.0, "goalExpected": 0.03237172285257893, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.03237172285257893, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.031853367045431916, "goalProbability": 0.031853367045431916, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05769097422859124, "modelSOG": 0.6264787502344233, "historyGames": 47, "seasonGames": { "2024": 12, "2025": 26, "2026": 9 }, "historyGoals": 1.0, "historyShots": 31.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.03225806451612903, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.05167249941113835, "goalieFactor": 0.9815060369171769, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8482720", "name": "Matthew Knies", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "VGK", "position": "L", "currentGP": 8, "currentSOG": 1.875, "priorSOG": 1.7721518987341771, "currentTOI": 18.360416666666666, "currentFiveTOI": 14.13125, "ppShare": 0.6966844044207942, "rate": 1.6750953585144241, "fifty": 1.7060308443213792, "inputs": { "Player": "Matthew Knies", "Player_ID": "8482720", "Team": "CBJ", "Opponent": "VGK", "Position": "L", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.7046729954487794, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.7720029731975426, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 8, "Prior_GP": 79, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.776647501105705, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.314606741573034, "Current_PP_SOG60": 10.575793184488838, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 10.868146214099216, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 14.116558544303796, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 14.13125, "Current_PP_Share": 0.6966844044207942, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.6949012236720229, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1702.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2443.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 4, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.052367424242425, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 2.821053354379204, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 2.823221185452561, "Other_State_SOG": 0.26313291139240513, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9217353117054976, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.7721518987341771, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:43.058412+00:00", "priorGP": 79, "currentTotalSOG": 15.0, "currentPPTOI": 3.5458333333333334, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.88 SOG/game in 8 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 8 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.929, "currentIXG": 0.241125, "priorTOI": 18.792194092827003, "priorPPTOI": 2.585654008438819, "deploymentChange": -0.43177742616033754, "ppTOIChange": 0.9601793248945145, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020802", "date": "20260123", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 20.15 }, { "gameId": "2025020748", "date": "20260115", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 20.116666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020985", "date": "20250305", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 16.85 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 2.3333333333333335, "opponentDefense": { "team": "VGK", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 275.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 25.0, "mostAllowedRank": 27, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.585792714368043, "pkSogAllowed60": 47.03517587939699, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 38.72727272727273, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 59.0, "C": 80.0, "R": 61.0, "L": 75.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.2727272727272725, "L": 6.818181818181818, "R": 5.545454545454546, "D": 5.363636363636363 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 26.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 25.75, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 25.0, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.818181818181818, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8479394", "team": "VGK", "name": "Carter Hart", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.8876404494382022, "gaa": 2.8716148845371516, "gsax": -1.5090000000000003, "goalsAllowed": 20.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 18.491, "shotsAgainst": 178.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.017200797231895, "factor": 1.017200797231895, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T22:33:02.238Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.16421800344629928, "goalHistoryGoals": 54.0, "goalHistoryShots": 307.0, "goalExpected": 0.31435168316113893, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.3197587827226986, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.269737837911287, "goalProbability": 0.27367578210520016, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.39379441939131343, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 8, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.914233985093691, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.776647501105705, "Current_PP_SOG60": 10.575793184488838, "Current_5v5_Min": 14.13125, "Current_PP_Share": 0.6966844044207942, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.052367424242425, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 2.823221185452561, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.125, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9589471960166247, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9956874166464801, "Position_Factor": 1.05, "Input_GP": 8, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1702.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2443.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.314606741573034, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 10.868146214099216, "Prior_5v5_Min": 14.082278481012658, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.6949012236720229, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.15, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.062091503267974, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9956874166464801, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 3.505355404089581, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 11.6410670978173, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020802", "date": "20260123", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 20.15 }, { "gameId": "2025020748", "date": "20260115", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 20.116666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020985", "date": "20250305", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 16.85 }, { "gameId": "2024020301", "date": "20241120", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 9.466666666666667 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "NHL.com October 20 game-specific projected lineup", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 121, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 45, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479394", "goalieName": "Carter Hart", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8482720", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479394", "goalieName": "Carter Hart", "opponent": "CBJ", "games": 5, "availableGames": 11, "shotsAgainst": 128.0, "goalsAgainst": 11.0, "savePct": 0.9140625, "gaa": 2.6073215696602583, "gsax": 0.11300000000000043, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020692", "date": "20260108", "goalieTeam": "VGK", "opponent": "CBJ", "shotsAgainst": 1.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 504.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 0.415 }, { "gameId": "2025020502", "date": "20251213", "goalieTeam": "VGK", "opponent": "CBJ", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.064 }, { "gameId": "2023020011", "date": "20231012", "goalieTeam": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "shotsAgainst": 33.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.608 }, { "gameId": "2022021287", "date": "20230411", "goalieTeam": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "shotsAgainst": 31.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3884.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.732 }, { "gameId": "2022020510", "date": "20221220", "goalieTeam": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "shotsAgainst": 33.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.294 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.914233985093691, "adjustedSOG": 1.914233985093691, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.914233985093691, "adjustedSOG": 1.914233985093691, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.16421800344629928, "goalHistoryGoals": 54.0, "goalHistoryShots": 307.0, "goalExpected": 0.31435168316113893, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.31435168316113893, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.269737837911287, "goalProbability": 0.269737837911287, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12836727402643802, "modelSOG": 1.914233985093691, "historyGames": 165, "seasonGames": { "2024": 78, "2025": 79, "2026": 8 }, "historyGoals": 54.0, "historyShots": 307.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.1758957654723127, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.16421800344629928, "goalieFactor": 1.017200797231895, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 56.26761343313208, "btb": { "id": "8482720", "name": "Matthew Knies", "score": 56.26761343313208, "components": { "Goal model": 86.74418604651163, "SOG model": 73.25581395348837, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 72.32558139534883, "Goalie": 18.38235294117647, "Team H2H": 41.23461395001865, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 134 } }, { "id": "8480829", "name": "Jesperi Kotkaniemi", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "STL", "position": "C", "currentGP": 9, "currentSOG": 1.1111111111111112, "priorSOG": 1, "currentTOI": 11.648148148148147, "currentFiveTOI": 10.603703703703705, "ppShare": 0.12159533073929961, "rate": 1.023844038580281, "fifty": 1.068097362103981, "inputs": { "Player": "Jesperi Kotkaniemi", "Player_ID": "8480829", "Team": "CAR", "Opponent": "STL", "Position": "C", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.008380850263064, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 0.8718241721678539, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 9, "Prior_GP": 42, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.658400279427174, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.25873717269839, "Current_PP_SOG60": 9.6, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 5.769230769230769, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 10.682473544973545, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 10.603703703703705, "Current_PP_Share": 0.12159533073929961, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.056040447955588206, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 375.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3084.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 5, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 6.0017676767676775, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.6117533727133316, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.7297869256770035, "Other_State_SOG": 0.02142857142857143, "Environment_Proxy": 1.00049372648272, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:43.079384+00:00", "priorGP": 42, "currentTotalSOG": 10.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.6944444444444444, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.11 SOG/game in 9 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 9 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.7829999999999999, "currentIXG": 0.087, "priorTOI": 11.350793650793651, "priorPPTOI": 0.24761904761904763, "deploymentChange": 0.2973544973544957, "ppTOIChange": 0.4468253968253968, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020730", "date": "20260113", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "STL", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 14.4 }, { "gameId": "2024020284", "date": "20241117", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "STL", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 13.233333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020084", "date": "20241019", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "STL", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 14.116666666666667 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 3, "h2hSOG": 0.6666666666666666, "opponentDefense": { "team": "STL", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 246.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.333333333333332, "mostAllowedRank": 15, "fiveSogAllowed60": 24.991224991224993, "pkSogAllowed60": 45.92737978410206, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 41.333333333333336, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 29.0, "L": 56.0, "D": 69.0, "C": 92.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.222222222222221, "L": 6.222222222222222, "R": 3.2222222222222223, "D": 7.666666666666667 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 27.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 3, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27.666666666666668, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.333333333333332, "oppPosSogAllowed": 10.222222222222221, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8480981", "team": "STL", "name": "Joel Hofer", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 6, "savePct": 0.9192546583850931, "gaa": 2.1949160491511117, "gsax": 2.83, "goalsAllowed": 13.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 15.83, "shotsAgainst": 161.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9785370006226618, "factor": 0.9785370006226618, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T15:44:23.131Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.10806964087041064, "goalHistoryGoals": 16.0, "goalHistoryShots": 167.0, "goalExpected": 0.12223111843158059, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.11960767201279222, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.11505618196141562, "goalProbability": 0.1127315313062135, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.23246506552021262, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 9, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.131040294453753, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.658400279427174, "Current_PP_SOG60": 9.6, "Current_5v5_Min": 10.603703703703705, "Current_PP_Share": 0.12159533073929961, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 6.0017676767676775, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.7297869256770035, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9895702550696535, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9828075032932179, "Position_Factor": 1.009381033998414, "Input_GP": 9, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 375.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3084.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.25873717269839, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 5.769230769230769, "Prior_5v5_Min": 10.86626984126984, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.056040447955588206, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0393643388249014, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.437908496732026, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0393643388249014, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9828075032932179, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.658400279427174, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 9.6, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 2.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020730", "date": "20260113", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "STL", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 14.4 }, { "gameId": "2024020284", "date": "20241117", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "STL", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 13.233333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020084", "date": "20241019", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "STL", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 14.116666666666667 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Reviewed October22 projected lineup and coach reports", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 56, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480981", "goalieName": "Joel Hofer", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8480829", "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 2, "recordedAttempts": 5, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020730", "date": "20260113", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 3 }, { "gameId": "2021020216", "date": "20211113", "season": 2021, "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 2 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480981", "goalieName": "Joel Hofer", "opponent": "CAR", "games": 4, "availableGames": 4, "shotsAgainst": 121.0, "goalsAgainst": 10.0, "savePct": 0.9173553719008265, "gaa": 2.5300442757748263, "gsax": 1.0949999999999998, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020730", "date": "20260113", "goalieTeam": "STL", "opponent": "CAR", "shotsAgainst": 33.0, "goalsAgainst": 0.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.698 }, { "gameId": "2024020284", "date": "20241117", "goalieTeam": "STL", "opponent": "CAR", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.293 }, { "gameId": "2024020084", "date": "20241019", "goalieTeam": "STL", "opponent": "CAR", "shotsAgainst": 40.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.792 }, { "gameId": "2021020216", "date": "20211113", "goalieTeam": "STL", "opponent": "CAR", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3429.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.312 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.131040294453753, "adjustedSOG": 1.131040294453753, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.1541227494426052, "adjustedSOG": 1.131040294453753, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.10806964087041064, "goalHistoryGoals": 16.0, "goalHistoryShots": 167.0, "goalExpected": 0.12472563105263326, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.12204864491101249, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.1172609344497082, "goalProbability": 0.11489468841373314, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.23662460359750587 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12854594112399642, "modelSOG": 1.131040294453753, "historyGames": 129, "seasonGames": { "2024": 78, "2025": 42, "2026": 9 }, "historyGoals": 16.0, "historyShots": 167.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.09580838323353294, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.10806964087041064, "goalieFactor": 0.9785370006226618, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 45.927903978488466, "btb": { "id": "8480829", "name": "Jesperi Kotkaniemi", "score": 45.927903978488466, "components": { "Goal model": 44.18604651162791, "SOG model": 37.44186046511628, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 22.325581395348838, "Goalie": 66.02941176470588, "Team H2H": 42.4984936734284, "Goalie H2H": 50.08328285887341 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 3, "goalieH2HShots": 2, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 262 } }, { "id": "8475158", "name": "Ryan O'Reilly", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "PIT", "position": "C", "currentGP": 8, "currentSOG": 2.25, "priorSOG": 1.9012345679012346, "currentTOI": 21.6125, "currentFiveTOI": 14.28125, "ppShare": 0.6993563044301401, "rate": 1.9754812539550295, "fifty": 2.0217942990038313, "inputs": { "Player": "Ryan O'Reilly", "Player_ID": "8475158", "Team": "NSH", "Opponent": "PIT", "Position": "C", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.6912114034936025, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.5646861566621704, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 8, "Prior_GP": 81, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.25164113785558, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.221064488876372, "Current_PP_SOG60": 9.745533297238765, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 7.445993565190746, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 14.38082561728395, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 14.28125, "Current_PP_Share": 0.6993563044301401, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.6651881779565487, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1847.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2641.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 5, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.906041666666667, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 3.3807820937348723, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 3.431071169380285, "Other_State_SOG": 0.2597222222222222, "Environment_Proxy": 1.0227478110844896, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.9012345679012346, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/nashville-predators/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:43.099358+00:00", "priorGP": 81, "currentTotalSOG": 18.0, "currentPPTOI": 3.847916666666667, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.25 SOG/game in 8 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 8 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 2.875, "currentIXG": 0.359375, "priorTOI": 20.39485596707819, "priorPPTOI": 2.686008230452675, "deploymentChange": 1.217644032921811, "ppTOIChange": 1.161908436213992, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020296", "date": "20251116", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "PIT", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 18.916666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2025020281", "date": "20251114", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "PIT", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 18.983333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020830", "date": "20250201", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "PIT", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 16.833333333333332 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 1.3333333333333333, "opponentDefense": { "team": "PIT", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 279.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.9, "mostAllowedRank": 12, "fiveSogAllowed60": 26.122338261223383, "pkSogAllowed60": 50.11600928074246, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 42.4, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 55.0, "L": 47.0, "D": 70.0, "C": 107.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.7, "L": 4.7, "R": 5.5, "D": 7.0 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 25.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 3, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 28.333333333333332, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.9, "oppPosSogAllowed": 10.7, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8481668", "team": "PIT", "name": "Arturs Silovs", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 6, "savePct": 0.8662420382165605, "gaa": 3.5131744040150563, "gsax": -1.0760000000000005, "goalsAllowed": 21.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 19.924, "shotsAgainst": 157.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0136052553954562, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Likely starter per Daily Faceoff; no Model Goal adjustment until confirmed.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T15:01:09.604Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.14856296773851296, "goalHistoryGoals": 50.0, "goalHistoryShots": 323.0, "goalExpected": 0.3319136880312991, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.3319136880312991, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.2824507467295736, "goalProbability": 0.2824507467295736, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 8, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 2.2341616695184996, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.25164113785558, "Current_PP_SOG60": 9.745533297238765, "Current_5v5_Min": 14.28125, "Current_PP_Share": 0.6993563044301401, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.906041666666667, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 3.431071169380285, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.375, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.011083778612368, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0249142728068137, "Position_Factor": 1.013339402198195, "Input_GP": 8, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1847.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2641.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.221064488876372, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 7.445993565190746, "Prior_5v5_Min": 14.613168724279836, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.6651881779565487, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0668628808864264, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.437908496732026, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0668628808864264, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0249142728068137, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.25164113785558, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 9.745533297238765, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020296", "date": "20251116", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "PIT", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 18.916666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2025020281", "date": "20251114", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "PIT", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 18.983333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020830", "date": "20250201", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "PIT", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 16.833333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2024020515", "date": "20241219", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "PIT", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 18.633333333333333 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 157, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 36, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481668", "goalieName": "Arturs Silovs", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8475158", "goals": 0, "sog": 4, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 4, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020281", "date": "20251114", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 4, "attempts": 4 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481668", "goalieName": "Arturs Silovs", "opponent": "NSH", "games": 2, "availableGames": 2, "shotsAgainst": 62.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "savePct": 0.9193548387096774, "gaa": 2.397123451857771, "gsax": 1.6559999999999997, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020281", "date": "20251114", "goalieTeam": "PIT", "opponent": "NSH", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3644.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.231 }, { "gameId": "2022021010", "date": "20230306", "goalieTeam": "VAN", "opponent": "NSH", "shotsAgainst": 32.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3865.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.425 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 2.2341616695184996, "adjustedSOG": 2.2341616695184996, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 2.279756805631122, "adjustedSOG": 2.2341616695184996, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.14856296773851296, "goalHistoryGoals": 50.0, "goalHistoryShots": 323.0, "goalExpected": 0.33868743676663177, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.33868743676663177, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.28729482028591397, "goalProbability": 0.28729482028591397, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12842135353390982, "modelSOG": 2.2341616695184996, "historyGames": 168, "seasonGames": { "2024": 79, "2025": 81, "2026": 8 }, "historyGoals": 50.0, "historyShots": 323.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.15479876160990713, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.14856296773851296, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 61.62968087228819, "btb": { "id": "8475158", "name": "Ryan O'Reilly", "score": 61.62968087228819, "components": { "Goal model": 88.13953488372093, "SOG model": 81.3953488372093, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 88.13953488372093, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 40.78701976874301, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Likely", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": 4, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 71 } }, { "id": "8481533", "name": "Trevor Zegras", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "ANA", "position": "L", "currentGP": 12, "currentSOG": 2.0, "priorSOG": 2.0617283950617282, "currentTOI": 18.290277777777778, "currentFiveTOI": 14.584722222222224, "ppShare": 0.6104651162790697, "rate": 2.0373486455912766, "fifty": 1.9510438663586913, "inputs": { "Player": "Trevor Zegras", "Player_ID": "8481533", "Team": "PHI", "Opponent": "ANA", "Position": "C", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 2.090203060959916, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.6314830662652078, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 12, "Prior_GP": 81, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.456718407770689, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.377699813616928, "Current_PP_SOG60": 12.0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 11.453940066592676, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 14.713503086419752, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 14.584722222222224, "Current_PP_Share": 0.6104651162790697, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.6530841568264717, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2100.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3440.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 7, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.042592592592593, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 3.1428000108353324, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 3.078326873385013, "Other_State_SOG": 0.14444444444444443, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9949214190083264, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 2.0617283950617282, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/philadelphia-flyers/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:43.118926+00:00", "priorGP": 81, "currentTotalSOG": 24.0, "currentPPTOI": 2.9166666666666665, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.00 SOG/game in 12 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 12 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 3.869, "currentIXG": 0.3224166666666667, "priorTOI": 18.718930041152262, "priorPPTOI": 2.7808641975308643, "deploymentChange": -0.4286522633744845, "ppTOIChange": 0.13580246913580218, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021082", "date": "20260318", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 18.45 }, { "gameId": "2025020670", "date": "20260106", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 2.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 22.65 } ], "h2hGames": 2, "h2hAvailableGames": 2, "h2hSOG": 2.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "ANA", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 239.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 26.555555555555557, "mostAllowedRank": 18, "fiveSogAllowed60": 25.834281008587897, "pkSogAllowed60": 38.93928820655967, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 43.333333333333336, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 54.0, "C": 91.0, "R": 57.0, "L": 37.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.11111111111111, "L": 4.111111111111111, "R": 6.333333333333333, "D": 6.0 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 28.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.2, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 26.555555555555557, "oppPosSogAllowed": 4.111111111111111, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8480843", "team": "ANA", "name": "Lukas Dostal", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.8813559322033898, "gaa": 3.1634446397188047, "gsax": 2.846, "goalsAllowed": 21.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 23.846, "shotsAgainst": 177.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9815060369171769, "factor": 0.9815060369171769, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T16:38:16.530Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.13842229659415747, "goalHistoryGoals": 41.0, "goalHistoryShots": 289.0, "goalExpected": 0.2604523961698472, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.25563559917024925, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.22929715608990958, "goalProbability": 0.22557588182736688, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.37212742625427064, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 12, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.8815783481289272, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.456718407770689, "Current_PP_SOG60": 12.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 14.584722222222224, "Current_PP_Share": 0.6104651162790697, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.042592592592593, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 3.078326873385013, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.3333333333333333, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0050173142237073, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9117211340641708, "Position_Factor": 0.9802148035352244, "Input_GP": 12, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2100.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3440.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.377699813616928, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 11.453940066592676, "Prior_5v5_Min": 15.013991769547326, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.6530841568264717, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9110121980224933, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.062091503267974, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9110121980224933, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9117211340641708, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 4.4050168247170385, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 7.696419027258151, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. 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Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480843", "goalieName": "Lukas Dostal", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8481533", "goals": 2, "sog": 4, "shootingPct": 0.5, "gamesWithAttempts": 2, "recordedAttempts": 6, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021082", "date": "20260318", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 3 }, { "gameId": "2025020670", "date": "20260106", "season": 2025, "goals": 2, "sog": 3, "attempts": 3 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480843", "goalieName": "Lukas Dostal", "opponent": "PHI", "games": 5, "availableGames": 5, "shotsAgainst": 155.0, "goalsAgainst": 18.0, "savePct": 0.8838709677419355, "gaa": 3.646595385481148, "gsax": -2.507999999999999, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021082", "date": "20260318", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 28.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3704.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.611 }, { "gameId": "2025020670", "date": "20260106", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 38.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3560.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.171 }, { "gameId": "2024020568", "date": "20241228", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3472.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.781 }, { "gameId": "2023020208", "date": "20231110", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 35.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3450.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.281 }, { "gameId": "2023020117", "date": "20231028", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3584.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.648 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.8815783481289272, "adjustedSOG": 1.8815783481289272, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.8815783481289272, "adjustedSOG": 1.8815783481289272, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.13842229659415747, "goalHistoryGoals": 41.0, "goalHistoryShots": 289.0, "goalExpected": 0.2604523961698472, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.2604523961698472, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.22929715608990958, "goalProbability": 0.22929715608990958, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12846273375127257, "modelSOG": 1.8815783481289272, "historyGames": 150, "seasonGames": { "2024": 57, "2025": 81, "2026": 12 }, "historyGoals": 41.0, "historyShots": 289.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.14186851211072665, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.13842229659415747, "goalieFactor": 0.9815060369171769, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 61.28798104054563, "btb": { "id": "8481533", "name": "Trevor Zegras", "score": 61.28798104054563, "components": { "Goal model": 78.83720930232558, "SOG model": 71.86046511627907, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 87.44186046511628, "Goalie": 44.85294117647059, "Team H2H": 55.809399477806785, "Goalie H2H": 53.26625838436862 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 2, "goalieH2HShots": 4, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 75 } }, { "id": "8477488", "name": "Brett Pesce", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "LAK", "position": "D", "currentGP": 9, "currentSOG": 1.0, "priorSOG": 1.2162162162162162, "currentTOI": 21.220370370370368, "currentFiveTOI": 18.498148148148147, "ppShare": 0.009930121368150056, "rate": 1.2395843188546731, "fifty": 1.157729588299419, "inputs": { "Player": "Brett Pesce", "Player_ID": "8477488", "Team": "NJD", "Opponent": "LAK", "Position": "D", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.1968844020812328, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.202801068596256, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 9, "Prior_GP": 37, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.2435679247171887, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.2687747035573125, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 18.07708208208208, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 18.498148148148147, "Current_PP_Share": 0.009930121368150056, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.024505645136390017, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 27.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2719.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 4, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.972354497354498, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.07111848499228854, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.04937608364419693, "Other_State_SOG": 0.0, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9908219918860978, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.2162162162162162, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-jersey-devils/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:43.138506+00:00", "priorGP": 37, "currentTotalSOG": 9.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.05, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.00 SOG/game in 9 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 9 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.254, "currentIXG": 0.02822222222222222, "priorTOI": 20.304954954954955, "priorPPTOI": 0.09504504504504505, "deploymentChange": 0.9154154154154135, "ppTOIChange": -0.04504504504504504, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2024020602", "date": "20250101", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 20.533333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2024020461", "date": "20241212", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 20.316666666666666 } ], "h2hGames": 2, "h2hAvailableGames": 2, "h2hSOG": 2.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "LAK", "games": 7, "sogAllowedTotal": 193.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.571428571428573, "mostAllowedRank": 14, "fiveSogAllowed60": 25.227874154660395, "pkSogAllowed60": 57.61396702230844, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 39.142857142857146, "positionUnassignedSOG": 1.0, "positionTotals": { "C": 86.0, "D": 47.0, "R": 28.0, "L": 31.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 12.285714285714286, "L": 4.428571428571429, "R": 4.0, "D": 6.714285714285714 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 27.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 29.5, "positionSourceDifference": 1.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.571428571428573, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.714285714285714, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8476341", "team": "LAK", "name": "Anton Forsberg", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 3, "savePct": 0.8833333333333333, "gaa": 2.6313041662315966, "gsax": -2.1049999999999995, "goalsAllowed": 7.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.8950000000000005, "shotsAgainst": 60.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0218332511814823, "factor": 1.0218332511814823, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T19:00:24.293Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.03865003038429329, "goalHistoryGoals": 4.0, "goalHistoryShots": 153.0, "goalExpected": 0.03728065260691383, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.03809461045949016, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.036594284921700936, "goalProbability": 0.0373781375139425, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.07838525922415629, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 9, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 0.9645698136906007, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.2435679247171887, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 18.498148148148147, "Current_PP_Share": 0.009930121368150056, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.972354497354498, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.04937608364419693, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9946407827573338, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.085978140946376, "Position_Factor": 0.98999544178116, "Input_GP": 9, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 27.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2719.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.2687747035573125, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 17.094594594594593, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.024505645136390017, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9645698136906008, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.34640522875817, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9645698136906008, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.085978140946376, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 3.2435679247171887, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2024020602", "date": "20250101", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 20.533333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2024020461", "date": "20241212", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 20.316666666666666 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 65, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476341", "goalieName": "Anton Forsberg", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8477488", "goals": 0, "sog": 5, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 3, "recordedAttempts": 7, "log": [ { "gameId": "2024020737", "date": "20250119", "season": 2024, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2023021077", "date": "20240317", "season": 2023, "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 2 }, { "gameId": "2021020510", "date": "20220208", "season": 2021, "goals": 0, "sog": 4, "attempts": 4 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476341", "goalieName": "Anton Forsberg", "opponent": "NJD", "games": 5, "availableGames": 11, "shotsAgainst": 115.0, "goalsAgainst": 15.0, "savePct": 0.8695652173913043, "gaa": 4.18280402788536, "gsax": -4.362, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021050", "date": "20260314", "goalieTeam": "LAK", "opponent": "NJD", "shotsAgainst": 27.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3466.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.948 }, { "gameId": "2024020737", "date": "20250119", "goalieTeam": "OTT", "opponent": "NJD", "shotsAgainst": 26.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.295 }, { "gameId": "2024020062", "date": "20241017", "goalieTeam": "OTT", "opponent": "NJD", "shotsAgainst": 35.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3470.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.298 }, { "gameId": "2023021224", "date": "20240406", "goalieTeam": "OTT", "opponent": "NJD", "shotsAgainst": 9.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 994.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 0.874 }, { "gameId": "2022020274", "date": "20221119", "goalieTeam": "OTT", "opponent": "NJD", "shotsAgainst": 18.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 1380.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.223 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.9645698136906007, "adjustedSOG": 0.9645698136906007, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.9645698136906007, "adjustedSOG": 0.9645698136906007, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.03865003038429329, "goalHistoryGoals": 4.0, "goalHistoryShots": 153.0, "goalExpected": 0.03728065260691383, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.03728065260691383, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.036594284921700936, "goalProbability": 0.036594284921700936, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05778457687226201, "modelSOG": 0.9645698136906007, "historyGames": 118, "seasonGames": { "2024": 72, "2025": 37, "2026": 9 }, "historyGoals": 4.0, "historyShots": 153.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.026143790849673203, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.03865003038429329, "goalieFactor": 1.0218332511814823, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 39.77449602647413, "btb": { "id": "8477488", "name": "Brett Pesce", "score": 39.77449602647413, "components": { "Goal model": 9.767441860465116, "SOG model": 25.58139534883721, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 3.953488372093023, "Goalie": 76.61764705882354, "Team H2H": 57.9852045256745, "Goalie H2H": 47.87043664996421 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 2, "goalieH2HShots": 5, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 354 } }, { "id": "8477960", "name": "Adrian Kempe", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "NJD", "position": "R", "currentGP": 7, "currentSOG": 3.2857142857142856, "priorSOG": 2.7901234567901234, "currentTOI": 20.79047619047619, "currentFiveTOI": 15.376190476190477, "ppShare": 0.6902286902286903, "rate": 2.6998482243655193, "fifty": 2.8665734935113933, "inputs": { "Player": "Adrian Kempe", "Player_ID": "8477960", "Team": "LAK", "Opponent": "NJD", "Position": "R", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 2.4885499984406874, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 2.691485584923802, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 7, "Prior_GP": 81, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 9.476618148033447, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 7.900987623452932, "Current_PP_SOG60": 10.843373493975903, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 9.85164914302175, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 15.20722222222222, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 15.376190476190477, "Current_PP_Share": 0.6902286902286903, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.6703847594932297, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1328.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1924.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 4, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.575661375661376, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 3.1310130260304945, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 3.158252758252759, "Other_State_SOG": 0.30634920634920637, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9357862710703578, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 2.7901234567901234, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/los-angeles-kings/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:43.160058+00:00", "priorGP": 81, "currentTotalSOG": 23.0, "currentPPTOI": 3.1619047619047618, "volumeNote": "Observed 3.29 SOG/game in 7 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 7 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 3.36, "currentIXG": 0.48, "priorTOI": 19.305761316872427, "priorPPTOI": 2.857201646090535, "deploymentChange": 1.4847148736037639, "ppTOIChange": 0.3047031158142266, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021050", "date": "20260314", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 18.4 }, { "gameId": "2025020191", "date": "20251101", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 20.333333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2024020602", "date": "20250101", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 21.466666666666665 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 2.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "NJD", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 234.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 26.0, "mostAllowedRank": 22, "fiveSogAllowed60": 24.374647357532442, "pkSogAllowed60": 52.512155591572125, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 37.111111111111114, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "L": 41.0, "D": 63.0, "C": 78.0, "R": 52.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 8.666666666666666, "L": 4.555555555555555, "R": 5.777777777777778, "D": 7.0 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 25.0, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 25.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 26.0, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.777777777777778, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8474596", "team": "NJD", "name": "Jake Allen", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 6, "savePct": 0.8834355828220859, "gaa": 3.1496062992125986, "gsax": -3.708, "goalsAllowed": 19.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 15.292, "shotsAgainst": 163.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0365218981504722, "factor": 1.0365218981504722, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T17:31:56.013Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.14819008755937416, "goalHistoryGoals": 74.0, "goalHistoryShots": 486.0, "goalExpected": 0.49324396771762724, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.5112581736699452, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.38935772611023084, "goalProbability": 0.400259473820639, "goalAdjustmentPP": 1.0901747710408138, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 7, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 3.328454526487833, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 9.476618148033447, "Current_PP_SOG60": 10.843373493975903, "Current_5v5_Min": 15.376190476190477, "Current_PP_Share": 0.6902286902286903, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.575661375661376, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 3.158252758252759, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.2857142857142857, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9778442581785296, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0469775686735434, "Position_Factor": 1.0147397181478286, "Input_GP": 7, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1328.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1924.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 7.900987623452932, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 9.85164914302175, "Prior_5v5_Min": 14.812962962962962, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.6703847594932297, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0348001150417026, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.382352941176471, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0348001150417026, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0469775686735434, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 9.476618148033447, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 10.843373493975903, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021050", "date": "20260314", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 18.4 }, { "gameId": "2025020191", "date": "20251101", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 20.333333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2024020602", "date": "20250101", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 21.466666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2024020461", "date": "20241212", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 20.833333333333332 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "ppAssignmentSourceDate": "2026-10-11T01:38:00.435Z", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 230, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. 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Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8474596", "goalieName": "Jake Allen", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8477960", "goals": 1, "sog": 17, "shootingPct": 0.058823529411764705, "gamesWithAttempts": 7, "recordedAttempts": 25, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021050", "date": "20260314", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2 }, { "gameId": "2024020602", "date": "20250101", "season": 2024, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 4 }, { "gameId": "2023020309", "date": "20231125", "season": 2023, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2 }, { "gameId": "2022020982", "date": "20230302", "season": 2022, "goals": 0, "sog": 7, "attempts": 8 }, { "gameId": "2022020439", "date": "20221210", "season": 2022, "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 3 }, { "gameId": "2021020183", "date": "20211109", "season": 2021, "goals": 1, "sog": 3, "attempts": 4 }, { "gameId": "2021020125", "date": "20211030", "season": 2021, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8474596", "goalieName": "Jake Allen", "opponent": "LAK", "games": 5, "availableGames": 17, "shotsAgainst": 151.0, "goalsAgainst": 16.0, "savePct": 0.8940397350993378, "gaa": 3.2597623089983023, "gsax": 1.5839999999999996, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021050", "date": "20260314", "goalieTeam": "NJD", "opponent": "LAK", "shotsAgainst": 31.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.558 }, { "gameId": "2024020602", "date": "20250101", "goalieTeam": "NJD", "opponent": "LAK", "shotsAgainst": 23.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3431.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.828 }, { "gameId": "2023020309", "date": "20231125", "goalieTeam": "MTL", "opponent": "LAK", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.339 }, { "gameId": "2022020982", "date": "20230302", "goalieTeam": "MTL", "opponent": "LAK", "shotsAgainst": 33.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3509.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.849 }, { "gameId": "2022020439", "date": "20221210", "goalieTeam": "MTL", "opponent": "LAK", "shotsAgainst": 34.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3530.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.01 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 3.328454526487833, "adjustedSOG": 3.328454526487833, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 3.396382169885544, "adjustedSOG": 3.328454526487833, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.14819008755937416, "goalHistoryGoals": 74.0, "goalHistoryShots": 486.0, "goalExpected": 0.503310171140436, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.503310171140436, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.39547374128754087, "goalProbability": 0.39547374128754087, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12839391309793258, "modelSOG": 3.328454526487833, "historyGames": 169, "seasonGames": { "2024": 81, "2025": 81, "2026": 7 }, "historyGoals": 74.0, "historyShots": 486.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.1522633744855967, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.14819008755937416, "goalieFactor": 1.0365218981504722, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 64.61457850787167, "btb": { "id": "8477960", "name": "Adrian Kempe", "score": 64.61457850787167, "components": { "Goal model": 98.13953488372093, "SOG model": 96.74418604651163, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 94.4186046511628, "Goalie": 55.44117647058823, "Team H2H": 41.682208131294296, "Goalie H2H": 39.1115289693266 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": 17, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 38 } }, { "id": "8484803", "name": "Trevor Connelly", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "CBJ", "position": "L", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 1.9090909090909092, "priorSOG": null, "currentTOI": 13.984848484848486, "currentFiveTOI": 10.409090909090908, "ppShare": 0.5664540138224349, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/vegas-golden-knights/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:43.163022+00:00", "priorGP": null, "currentTotalSOG": 21.0, "currentPPTOI": 3.2287878787878785, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.91 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 2.806, "currentIXG": 0.2550909090909091, "priorTOI": null, "priorPPTOI": null, "deploymentChange": null, "ppTOIChange": null, "h2hLog": [], "h2hGames": 0, "h2hAvailableGames": 0, "h2hSOG": null, "opponentDefense": { "team": "CBJ", "games": 8, "sogAllowedTotal": 222.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.75, "mostAllowedRank": 13, "fiveSogAllowed60": 26.021128266541208, "pkSogAllowed60": 45.718967636214664, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 43.125, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 66.0, "D": 61.0, "R": 49.0, "L": 46.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 8.25, "L": 5.75, "R": 6.125, "D": 7.625 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 28.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.666666666666668, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.75, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.75, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8475660", "team": "CBJ", "name": "Cam Talbot", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 4, "savePct": 0.8674698795180723, "gaa": 3.3959351685104195, "gsax": -0.8840000000000003, "goalsAllowed": 11.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 10.116, "shotsAgainst": 83.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0106708091071457, "factor": 1.0106708091071457, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T15:32:32.146Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.13924433685575205, "goalHistoryGoals": 4.0, "goalHistoryShots": 21.0, "goalExpected": 0.2697663170190676, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.27264494189151584, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.23644209602249106, "goalProbability": 0.23863693222577012, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.21948362032790658, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.9373593433715566, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 8.908296943231441, "Current_PP_SOG60": 6.75739089629282, "Current_5v5_Min": 10.409090909090908, "Current_PP_Share": 0.5664540138224349, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.392708333333333, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 3.0547212807903596, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0080456056426796, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9827600403123256, "Position_Factor": 1.0127584007506538, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2131.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3762.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": null, "Prior_PP_SOG60": null, "Prior_5v5_Min": null, "Prior_PP_Share": null, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0603973889964853, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.062091503267974, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0603973889964853, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9827600403123256, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 8.908296943231441, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 6.75739089629282, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 1, "playerPriorWeight": 0, "currentSeasonOnly": true }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 1, "playerPriorWeight": 0, "currentSeasonOnly": true }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475660", "goalieName": "Cam Talbot", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8484803", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475660", "goalieName": "Cam Talbot", "opponent": "VGK", "games": 5, "availableGames": 22, "shotsAgainst": 160.0, "goalsAgainst": 16.0, "savePct": 0.9, "gaa": 3.176704169424222, "gsax": 0.6329999999999996, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020970", "date": "20260304", "goalieTeam": "DET", "opponent": "VGK", "shotsAgainst": 25.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3728.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.397 }, { "gameId": "2024021115", "date": "20250322", "goalieTeam": "DET", "opponent": "VGK", "shotsAgainst": 35.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3491.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.784 }, { "gameId": "2023020544", "date": "20231228", "goalieTeam": "LAK", "opponent": "VGK", "shotsAgainst": 32.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3478.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.46 }, { "gameId": "2023020192", "date": "20231108", "goalieTeam": "LAK", "opponent": "VGK", "shotsAgainst": 38.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.55 }, { "gameId": "2023020125", "date": "20231028", "goalieTeam": "LAK", "opponent": "VGK", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3835.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.442 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.9373593433715566, "adjustedSOG": 1.9373593433715566, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.9768972891546497, "adjustedSOG": 1.9373593433715566, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.13924433685575205, "goalHistoryGoals": 4.0, "goalHistoryShots": 21.0, "goalExpected": 0.2752717520602731, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.27820912437909784, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.24063426402009427, "goalProbability": 0.2428615311549775, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.22272671348832207 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12848564759545997, "modelSOG": 1.9373593433715566, "historyGames": 11, "seasonGames": { "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 4.0, "historyShots": 21.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.19047619047619047, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.13924433685575205, "goalieFactor": 1.0106708091071457, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": 56.26231190150479, "btb": { "id": "8484803", "name": "Trevor Connelly", "score": 56.26231190150479, "components": { "Goal model": 80.23255813953489, "SOG model": 74.18604651162791, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 76.97674418604652, "Goalie": 13.088235294117647, "Team H2H": 50.0, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Team H2H unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 0, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 135 } }, { "id": "8486067", "name": "Gavin McKenna", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "EDM", "position": "L", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 1.8181818181818181, "priorSOG": null, "currentTOI": 13.998484848484848, "currentFiveTOI": 11.124242424242423, "ppShare": 0.45952452603069516, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/toronto-maple-leafs/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:43.165840+00:00", "priorGP": null, "currentTotalSOG": 20.0, "currentPPTOI": 2.3136363636363635, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.82 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 2.425, "currentIXG": 0.22045454545454543, "priorTOI": null, "priorPPTOI": null, "deploymentChange": null, "ppTOIChange": null, "h2hLog": [], "h2hGames": 0, "h2hAvailableGames": 0, "h2hSOG": null, "opponentDefense": { "team": "EDM", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 239.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 26.555555555555557, "mostAllowedRank": 18, "fiveSogAllowed60": 25.09786377362711, "pkSogAllowed60": 57.79388917659244, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 40.111111111111114, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 74.0, "C": 64.0, "L": 57.0, "R": 44.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.111111111111111, "L": 6.333333333333333, "R": 4.888888888888889, "D": 8.222222222222221 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 28.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 24.5, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 26.555555555555557, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.333333333333333, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8477465", "team": "EDM", "name": "Tristan Jarry", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 3, "savePct": 0.8732394366197183, "gaa": 2.974387221151198, "gsax": -2.739, "goalsAllowed": 9.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 6.261, "shotsAgainst": 71.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0280169850571896, "factor": 1.0280169850571896, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-23T18:50:20.460Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.13207784320887567, "goalHistoryGoals": 3.0, "goalHistoryShots": 20.0, "goalExpected": 0.24924380504613527, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.2562268650077099, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.2206100689790918, "goalProbability": 0.2260336370113111, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.54235680322193, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.8870977825702868, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 6.374284935984745, "Current_PP_SOG60": 11.787819253438114, "Current_5v5_Min": 11.124242424242423, "Current_PP_Share": 0.45952452603069516, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.3053872053872055, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.9784310149341748, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.18181818181818182, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9913228889134689, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0841268017286898, "Position_Factor": 1.0335314825443072, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1527.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3323.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": null, "Prior_PP_SOG60": null, "Prior_5v5_Min": null, "Prior_PP_Share": null, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.1189562026434712, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.062091503267974, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.1189562026434712, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0841268017286898, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 6.374284935984745, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 11.787819253438114, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": false, "goalRoleUnavailable": "Reported PP opportunity updated, but required historical goal-model inputs are unavailable. No goal estimate imputed.", "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 1, "playerPriorWeight": 0, "currentSeasonOnly": true }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 1, "playerPriorWeight": 0, "currentSeasonOnly": true }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477465", "goalieName": "Tristan Jarry", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8486067", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477465", "goalieName": "Tristan Jarry", "opponent": "TOR", "games": 5, "availableGames": 13, "shotsAgainst": 102.0, "goalsAgainst": 16.0, "savePct": 0.8431372549019608, "gaa": 4.100811618966254, "gsax": -2.944, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020499", "date": "20251213", "goalieTeam": "EDM", "opponent": "TOR", "shotsAgainst": 28.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.854 }, { "gameId": "2025020396", "date": "20251129", "goalieTeam": "PIT", "opponent": "TOR", "shotsAgainst": 13.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 2107.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.626 }, { "gameId": "2025020199", "date": "20251103", "goalieTeam": "PIT", "opponent": "TOR", "shotsAgainst": 20.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3452.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.296 }, { "gameId": "2024020433", "date": "20241207", "goalieTeam": "PIT", "opponent": "TOR", "shotsAgainst": 27.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3571.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.846 }, { "gameId": "2023020466", "date": "20231216", "goalieTeam": "PIT", "opponent": "TOR", "shotsAgainst": 14.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 1316.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.434 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.8870977825702868, "adjustedSOG": 1.8870977825702868, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.9256099822145785, "adjustedSOG": 1.8870977825702868, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.13207784320887567, "goalHistoryGoals": 3.0, "goalHistoryShots": 20.0, "goalExpected": 0.25433041331238293, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.2614559847017448, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.22456445451360565, "goalProbability": 0.23007023663328824, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.5505782119682584 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1284934118506508, "modelSOG": 1.8870977825702868, "historyGames": 11, "seasonGames": { "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 3.0, "historyShots": 20.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.15, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.13207784320887567, "goalieFactor": 1.0280169850571896, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": 62.69733242134063, "btb": { "id": "8486067", "name": "Gavin McKenna", "score": 62.69733242134063, "components": { "Goal model": 77.44186046511628, "SOG model": 72.09302325581395, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 68.83720930232558, "Goalie": 92.20588235294117, "Team H2H": 50.0, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Team H2H unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 0, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 57 } }, { "id": "8477989", "name": "Christian Dvorak", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "ANA", "position": "C", "currentGP": 12, "currentSOG": 1.0833333333333333, "priorSOG": 1.8875, "currentTOI": 17.53472222222222, "currentFiveTOI": 13.529166666666667, "ppShare": 0.25988372093023254, "rate": 1.7747631199917353, "fifty": 1.5932742501525872, "inputs": { "Player": "Christian Dvorak", "Player_ID": "8477989", "Team": "PHI", "Opponent": "ANA", "Position": "C", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.924839044578885, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.7664024667807832, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 12, "Prior_GP": 80, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.804434862950416, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.70852722368772, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 10.663794264171267, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 13.687791666666666, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 13.529166666666667, "Current_PP_Share": 0.25988372093023254, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.36338044640470457, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 894.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3440.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 7, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.042592592592593, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 1.4670552724687396, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 1.310487726098191, "Other_State_SOG": 0.24750000000000003, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9949214190083264, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.8875, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/philadelphia-flyers/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:43.186373+00:00", "priorGP": 80, "currentTotalSOG": 13.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.2416666666666667, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.08 SOG/game in 12 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 12 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.3840000000000001, "currentIXG": 0.11533333333333334, "priorTOI": 18.459375, "priorPPTOI": 1.5472916666666667, "deploymentChange": -0.92465277777778, "ppTOIChange": -0.30562500000000004, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021082", "date": "20260318", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 19.666666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2025020670", "date": "20260106", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 23.65 }, { "gameId": "2024020837", "date": "20250202", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 17.5 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 2.6666666666666665, "opponentDefense": { "team": "ANA", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 239.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 26.555555555555557, "mostAllowedRank": 18, "fiveSogAllowed60": 25.834281008587897, "pkSogAllowed60": 38.93928820655967, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 43.333333333333336, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 54.0, "C": 91.0, "R": 57.0, "L": 37.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.11111111111111, "L": 4.111111111111111, "R": 6.333333333333333, "D": 6.0 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 28.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.2, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 26.555555555555557, "oppPosSogAllowed": 10.11111111111111, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8480843", "team": "ANA", "name": "Lukas Dostal", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.8813559322033898, "gaa": 3.1634446397188047, "gsax": 2.846, "goalsAllowed": 21.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 23.846, "shotsAgainst": 177.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9815060369171769, "factor": 0.9815060369171769, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T16:38:16.530Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.12188016430270922, "goalHistoryGoals": 32.0, "goalHistoryShots": 268.0, "goalExpected": 0.1364980691473813, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.133973678895693, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.12759199525072362, "goalProbability": 0.1253869149173888, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.220508033333483, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 12, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.1199367011712107, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.804434862950416, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 13.529166666666667, "Current_PP_Share": 0.25988372093023254, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.042592592592593, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.310487726098191, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0050173142237073, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9117211340641708, "Position_Factor": 1.0116943517389423, "Input_GP": 12, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 894.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3440.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.70852722368772, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 10.663794264171267, "Prior_5v5_Min": 14.057916666666667, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.36338044640470457, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0337877241580407, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.437908496732026, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0337877241580407, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9117211340641708, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 3.967816598699438, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 3.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021082", "date": "20260318", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 19.666666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2025020670", "date": "20260106", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 23.65 }, { "gameId": "2024020837", "date": "20250202", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 17.5 }, { "gameId": "2024020445", "date": "20241209", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 16.716666666666665 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff latest reported chart; October 21 final lineup pending", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 158, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 35, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. 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Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.12188016430270922, "goalHistoryGoals": 32.0, "goalHistoryShots": 268.0, "goalExpected": 0.1364980691473813, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.1364980691473813, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.12759199525072362, "goalProbability": 0.12759199525072362, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12851900463396995, "modelSOG": 1.1199367011712107, "historyGames": 174, "seasonGames": { "2024": 82, "2025": 80, "2026": 12 }, "historyGoals": 32.0, "historyShots": 268.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.11940298507462686, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.12188016430270922, "goalieFactor": 0.9815060369171769, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 48.19450255975656, "btb": { "id": "8477989", "name": "Christian Dvorak", "score": 48.19450255975656, "components": { "Goal model": 47.674418604651166, "SOG model": 36.74418604651163, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 28.372093023255815, "Goalie": 44.85294117647059, "Team H2H": 61.45095113763521, "Goalie H2H": 52.82263445882824 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": 9, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 226 } }, { "id": "8476457", "name": "Adam Larsson", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "position": "D", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 1.1, "priorSOG": 1.2926829268292683, "currentTOI": 22.086666666666666, "currentFiveTOI": 18.816666666666666, "ppShare": 0.020484171322160148, "rate": 1.2554115738676566, "fifty": 1.2088555702560015, "inputs": { "Player": "Adam Larsson", "Player_ID": "8476457", "Team": "SEA", "Opponent": "MIN", "Position": "D", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.4508603335552614, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.356409202788768, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 10, "Prior_GP": 82, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.507528786536758, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.057673422015892, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 18.635569105691054, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 18.816666666666666, "Current_PP_Share": 0.020484171322160148, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.014159188336734789, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 55.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2685.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 6, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.085, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.09451324962891795, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.10416201117318435, "Other_State_SOG": 0.054878048780487805, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9620662188708584, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.2926829268292683, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/seattle-kraken/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:43.208433+00:00", "priorGP": 82, "currentTotalSOG": 11.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.09166666666666666, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.10 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.258, "currentIXG": 0.0258, "priorTOI": 21.373170731707315, "priorPPTOI": 0.058943089430894303, "deploymentChange": 0.7134959349593508, "ppTOIChange": 0.03272357723577236, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021240", "date": "20260407", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 22.3 }, { "gameId": "2025020693", "date": "20260108", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 23.85 }, { "gameId": "2025020465", "date": "20251208", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 20.616666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024021088", "date": "20250319", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 21.916666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2024020982", "date": "20250304", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 23.233333333333334 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 6, "h2hSOG": 2.2, "opponentDefense": { "team": "MIN", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 261.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 26.1, "mostAllowedRank": 21, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.40367597004765, "pkSogAllowed60": 45.30289727831431, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 40.4, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 77.0, "C": 114.0, "R": 29.0, "L": 41.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 11.4, "L": 4.1, "R": 2.9, "D": 7.7 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 24.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 28.333333333333332, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 26.1, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.7, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8482661", "team": "MIN", "name": "Jesper Wallstedt", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 9, "savePct": 0.9152542372881356, "gaa": 2.1979363819525, "gsax": 6.934999999999999, "goalsAllowed": 20.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 26.935, "shotsAgainst": 236.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9495343259526882, "factor": 0.9495343259526882, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T18:37:27.914Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.06007731079650193, "goalHistoryGoals": 14.0, "goalHistoryShots": 229.0, "goalExpected": 0.0676754336757517, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.06426014729886075, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.06543624772062259, "goalProbability": 0.06223898819846593, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.3197259522156659, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.1264724199288259, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.507528786536758, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 18.816666666666666, "Current_PP_Share": 0.020484171322160148, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.085, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.10416201117318435, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.957587153238364, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9748801923935355, "Position_Factor": 1.0117153945269357, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 55.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2685.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.057673422015892, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 18.213008130081302, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.014159188336734789, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0240658362989326, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.34640522875817, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0240658362989326, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9748801923935355, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 3.507528786536758, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 2.3333333333333335 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 2.3333333333333335 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021240", "date": "20260407", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 22.3 }, { "gameId": "2025020693", "date": "20260108", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 23.85 }, { "gameId": "2025020465", "date": "20251208", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 20.616666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024021088", "date": "20250319", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 21.916666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2024020982", "date": "20250304", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 23.233333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020033", "date": "20241012", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 8.0, "toi": 22.466666666666665 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 142, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482661", "goalieName": "Jesper Wallstedt", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8476457", "goals": 2, "sog": 7, "shootingPct": 0.2857142857142857, "gamesWithAttempts": 2, "recordedAttempts": 11, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021240", "date": "20260407", "season": 2025, "goals": 1, "sog": 4, "attempts": 7 }, { "gameId": "2025020693", "date": "20260108", "season": 2025, "goals": 1, "sog": 3, "attempts": 4 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482661", "goalieName": "Jesper Wallstedt", "opponent": "SEA", "games": 2, "availableGames": 2, "shotsAgainst": 55.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "savePct": 0.9272727272727272, "gaa": 1.9647973802701597, "gsax": 2.874, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021240", "date": "20260407", "goalieTeam": "MIN", "opponent": "SEA", "shotsAgainst": 27.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.053 }, { "gameId": "2025020693", "date": "20260108", "goalieTeam": "MIN", "opponent": "SEA", "shotsAgainst": 28.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3729.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.821 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.1264724199288259, "adjustedSOG": 1.1264724199288259, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.1264724199288259, "adjustedSOG": 1.1264724199288259, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.06007731079650193, "goalHistoryGoals": 14.0, "goalHistoryShots": 229.0, "goalExpected": 0.0676754336757517, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.0676754336757517, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.06543624772062259, "goalProbability": 0.06543624772062259, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05765435252049133, "modelSOG": 1.1264724199288259, "historyGames": 174, "seasonGames": { "2024": 82, "2025": 82, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 14.0, "historyShots": 229.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.0611353711790393, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.06007731079650193, "goalieFactor": 0.9495343259526882, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 39.93812666902706, "btb": { "id": "8476457", "name": "Adam Larsson", "score": 39.93812666902706, "components": { "Goal model": 23.25581395348837, "SOG model": 37.2093023255814, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 1.8604651162790697, "Goalie": 23.676470588235293, "Team H2H": 68.45626631853786, "Goalie H2H": 56.043652438182065 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 6, "goalieH2HShots": 7, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 350 } }, { "id": "8478403", "name": "Jack Eichel", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "CBJ", "position": "C", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 2.5454545454545454, "priorSOG": 3.5135135135135136, "currentTOI": 19.895454545454545, "currentFiveTOI": 13.868181818181819, "ppShare": 0.7562466772993088, "rate": 3.43582750287017, "fifty": 3.1531869704462263, "inputs": { "Player": "Jack Eichel", "Player_ID": "8478403", "Team": "VGK", "Opponent": "CBJ", "Position": "C", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 3.8816903914518406, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 3.8063675600714477, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 11, "Prior_GP": 74, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 9.04621435594887, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 9.22502666192677, "Current_PP_SOG60": 1.265377855887522, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 10.344827586206897, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 14.269348894348894, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 13.868181818181819, "Current_PP_Share": 0.7562466772993088, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.755232318099533, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2845.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3762.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 6, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.392708333333333, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 4.076576715734739, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 4.078217758727627, "Other_State_SOG": 0.5106879606879606, "Environment_Proxy": 1.0241190783267258, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 3.5135135135135136, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/vegas-golden-knights/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:43.228960+00:00", "priorGP": 74, "currentTotalSOG": 28.0, "currentPPTOI": 4.3106060606060606, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.55 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 3.258, "currentIXG": 0.29618181818181816, "priorTOI": 21.200900900900898, "priorPPTOI": 3.4486486486486485, "deploymentChange": -1.3054463554463531, "ppTOIChange": 0.861957411957412, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020692", "date": "20260108", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 22.666666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2025020502", "date": "20251213", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 20.8 }, { "gameId": "2024021045", "date": "20250313", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 19.883333333333333 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 3.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "CBJ", "games": 8, "sogAllowedTotal": 222.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.75, "mostAllowedRank": 13, "fiveSogAllowed60": 26.021128266541208, "pkSogAllowed60": 45.718967636214664, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 43.125, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 66.0, "D": 61.0, "R": 49.0, "L": 46.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 8.25, "L": 5.75, "R": 6.125, "D": 7.625 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 28.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.666666666666668, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.75, "oppPosSogAllowed": 8.25, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8475660", "team": "CBJ", "name": "Cam Talbot", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 4, "savePct": 0.8674698795180723, "gaa": 3.3959351685104195, "gsax": -0.8840000000000003, "goalsAllowed": 11.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 10.116, "shotsAgainst": 83.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0106708091071457, "factor": 1.0106708091071457, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T15:32:32.146Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.11732035612279551, "goalHistoryGoals": 60.0, "goalHistoryShots": 521.0, "goalExpected": 0.27847894525717265, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.2814505409223712, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.24306579536285222, "goalProbability": 0.24531175906346803, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.2245963700615805, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 2.3736626316212126, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 9.04621435594887, "Current_PP_SOG60": 1.265377855887522, "Current_5v5_Min": 13.868181818181819, "Current_PP_Share": 0.7562466772993088, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.392708333333333, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 4.078217758727627, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.36363636363636365, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0080456056426796, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9827600403123256, "Position_Factor": 0.9842134378145458, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2845.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3762.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 9.22502666192677, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 10.344827586206897, "Prior_5v5_Min": 15.205405405405406, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.755232318099533, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9440597106802093, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.437908496732026, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9440597106802093, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9827600403123256, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 9.04621435594887, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 1.265377855887522, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 3.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020692", "date": "20260108", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 22.666666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2025020502", "date": "20251213", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 20.8 }, { "gameId": "2024021045", "date": "20250313", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 19.883333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020820", "date": "20250130", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 20.7 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 233, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 70, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475660", "goalieName": "Cam Talbot", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8478403", "goals": 1, "sog": 28, "shootingPct": 0.03571428571428571, "gamesWithAttempts": 8, "recordedAttempts": 38, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020970", "date": "20260304", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 4, "attempts": 6 }, { "gameId": "2024021115", "date": "20250322", "season": 2024, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 3 }, { "gameId": "2023020544", "date": "20231228", "season": 2023, "goals": 1, "sog": 3, "attempts": 4 }, { "gameId": "2023020192", "date": "20231108", "season": 2023, "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 3 }, { "gameId": "2023020125", "date": "20231028", "season": 2023, "goals": 0, "sog": 4, "attempts": 6 }, { "gameId": "2022020315", "date": "20221123", "season": 2022, "goals": 0, "sog": 6, "attempts": 6 }, { "gameId": "2022020163", "date": "20221103", "season": 2022, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2 }, { "gameId": "2021021001", "date": "20220321", "season": 2021, "goals": 0, "sog": 5, "attempts": 8 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475660", "goalieName": "Cam Talbot", "opponent": "VGK", "games": 5, "availableGames": 22, "shotsAgainst": 160.0, "goalsAgainst": 16.0, "savePct": 0.9, "gaa": 3.176704169424222, "gsax": 0.6329999999999996, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020970", "date": "20260304", "goalieTeam": "DET", "opponent": "VGK", "shotsAgainst": 25.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3728.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.397 }, { "gameId": "2024021115", "date": "20250322", "goalieTeam": "DET", "opponent": "VGK", "shotsAgainst": 35.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3491.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.784 }, { "gameId": "2023020544", "date": "20231228", "goalieTeam": "LAK", "opponent": "VGK", "shotsAgainst": 32.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3478.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.46 }, { "gameId": "2023020192", "date": "20231108", "goalieTeam": "LAK", "opponent": "VGK", "shotsAgainst": 38.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.55 }, { "gameId": "2023020125", "date": "20231028", "goalieTeam": "LAK", "opponent": "VGK", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3835.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.442 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 2.3736626316212126, "adjustedSOG": 2.3736626316212126, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 2.4221047261440947, "adjustedSOG": 2.3736626316212126, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.11732035612279551, "goalHistoryGoals": 60.0, "goalHistoryShots": 521.0, "goalExpected": 0.2841621890379313, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.2871944295126237, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.2473554358913605, "goalProbability": 0.24963417860777184, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.22787427164113472 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1285594115225601, "modelSOG": 2.3736626316212126, "historyGames": 162, "seasonGames": { "2024": 77, "2025": 74, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 60.0, "historyShots": 521.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.11516314779270634, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.11732035612279551, "goalieFactor": 1.0106708091071457, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 56.39895500143276, "btb": { "id": "8478403", "name": "Jack Eichel", "score": 56.39895500143276, "components": { "Goal model": 82.09302325581395, "SOG model": 83.95348837209302, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 84.18604651162791, "Goalie": 13.088235294117647, "Team H2H": 52.0514733308467, "Goalie H2H": 32.47526751463759 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": 28, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 132 } }, { "id": "8479385", "name": "Jordan Kyrou", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "position": "R", "currentGP": 9, "currentSOG": 1.3333333333333333, "priorSOG": 2.4027777777777777, "currentTOI": 13.651851851851852, "currentFiveTOI": 10.992592592592594, "ppShare": 0.3873659117997616, "rate": 2.024049676042447, "fifty": 1.7166032327325904, "inputs": { "Player": "Jordan Kyrou", "Player_ID": "8479385", "Team": "WSH", "Opponent": "BUF", "Position": "R", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.8217227797374682, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.416665129062264, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 9, "Prior_GP": 72, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 6.671159029649596, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 8.548644338118022, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 11.17392750249418, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 11.613564814814815, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 10.992592592592594, "Current_PP_Share": 0.3873659117997616, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.5062389338379012, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 975.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2517.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 5, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.500555555555556, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 1.9038601983050882, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 1.7433618063832603, "Other_State_SOG": 0.12361111111111112, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9496227273390297, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 2.4027777777777777, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:43.252070+00:00", "priorGP": 72, "currentTotalSOG": 12.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.8055555555555556, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.33 SOG/game in 9 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 9 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.1179999999999999, "currentIXG": 0.1242222222222222, "priorTOI": 15.730787037037036, "priorPPTOI": 2.0881944444444445, "deploymentChange": -2.078935185185184, "ppTOIChange": -0.2826388888888889, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020610", "date": "20251229", "team": "STL", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 13.2 }, { "gameId": "2024020582", "date": "20241229", "team": "STL", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "home", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 19.833333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2024020257", "date": "20241114", "team": "STL", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 14.483333333333333 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 3, "h2hSOG": 2.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "BUF", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 257.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 25.7, "mostAllowedRank": 24, "fiveSogAllowed60": 21.645723550871505, "pkSogAllowed60": 62.21198156682028, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 40.1, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 61.0, "L": 55.0, "D": 65.0, "C": 76.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.6, "L": 5.5, "R": 6.1, "D": 6.5 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 30.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.25, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 25.7, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.1, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8480045", "team": "BUF", "name": "Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 8, "savePct": 0.8629441624365483, "gaa": 3.5349310833909153, "gsax": -3.6580000000000013, "goalsAllowed": 27.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 23.342, "shotsAgainst": 197.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.035448902624297, "factor": 1.035448902624297, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T15:43:35.500Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.1313900148879635, "goalHistoryGoals": 56.0, "goalHistoryShots": 424.0, "goalExpected": 0.18589253958222984, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.1924822261164636, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.16963717867662292, "goalProbability": 0.17509102009055771, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.545384141393479, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 9, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.4148148148148147, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 6.671159029649596, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 10.992592592592594, "Current_PP_Share": 0.3873659117997616, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.500555555555556, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.7433618063832603, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.1111111111111111, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.922717716387106, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.1429256259066152, "Position_Factor": 1.0251297016861218, "Input_GP": 9, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 975.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2517.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 8.548644338118022, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 11.17392750249418, "Prior_5v5_Min": 13.0625, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.5062389338379012, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0666666666666664, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.382352941176471, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0666666666666664, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.1429256259066152, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 6.23196768609348, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 3.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 0.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020610", "date": "20251229", "team": "STL", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 13.2 }, { "gameId": "2024020582", "date": "20241229", "team": "STL", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "home", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 19.833333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2024020257", "date": "20241114", "team": "STL", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 14.483333333333333 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "NHL.com October 20 game-specific projected lineup", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. 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Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480045", "goalieName": "Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8479385", "goals": 2, "sog": 17, "shootingPct": 0.11764705882352941, "gamesWithAttempts": 5, "recordedAttempts": 23, "log": [ { "gameId": "2024020582", "date": "20241229", "season": 2024, "goals": 0, "sog": 5, "attempts": 5 }, { "gameId": "2023020804", "date": "20240210", "season": 2023, "goals": 1, "sog": 4, "attempts": 6 }, { "gameId": "2023020348", "date": "20231130", "season": 2023, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 4 }, { "gameId": "2022020761", "date": "20230124", "season": 2022, "goals": 1, "sog": 5, "attempts": 6 }, { "gameId": "2022020307", "date": "20221123", "season": 2022, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480045", "goalieName": "Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen", "opponent": "WSH", "games": 5, "availableGames": 10, "shotsAgainst": 138.0, "goalsAgainst": 13.0, "savePct": 0.9057971014492754, "gaa": 2.5547246028713357, "gsax": 1.2270000000000003, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021028", "date": "20260312", "goalieTeam": "BUF", "opponent": "WSH", "shotsAgainst": 22.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3513.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.736 }, { "gameId": "2025020186", "date": "20251101", "goalieTeam": "BUF", "opponent": "WSH", "shotsAgainst": 34.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3868.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.692 }, { "gameId": "2024020637", "date": "20250106", "goalieTeam": "BUF", "opponent": "WSH", "shotsAgainst": 28.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3900.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.29 }, { "gameId": "2024020480", "date": "20241214", "goalieTeam": "BUF", "opponent": "WSH", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3438.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.234 }, { "gameId": "2023021255", "date": "20240411", "goalieTeam": "BUF", "opponent": "WSH", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.275 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.4148148148148147, "adjustedSOG": 1.4148148148148147, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.4148148148148147, "adjustedSOG": 1.4148148148148147, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.1313900148879635, "goalHistoryGoals": 56.0, "goalHistoryShots": 424.0, "goalExpected": 0.18589253958222984, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.1924822261164636, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.16963717867662292, "goalProbability": 0.17509102009055771, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.545384141393479 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12848367801292884, "modelSOG": 1.4148148148148147, "historyGames": 163, "seasonGames": { "2024": 82, "2025": 72, "2026": 9 }, "historyGoals": 56.0, "historyShots": 424.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.1320754716981132, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.1313900148879635, "goalieFactor": 1.035448902624297, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 47.48025761168744, "btb": { "id": "8479385", "name": "Jordan Kyrou", "score": 47.48025761168744, "components": { "Goal model": 63.02325581395349, "SOG model": 52.7906976744186, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 38.13953488372093, "Goalie": 7.794117647058823, "Team H2H": 49.819240811407916, "Goalie H2H": 51.6982019038665 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 3, "goalieH2HShots": 17, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 240 } }, { "id": "8483463", "name": "Aleksanteri Kaskimaki", "team": "STL", "opponent": "CAR", "position": "C", "currentGP": 1, "currentSOG": 0.0, "priorSOG": 1.2, "currentTOI": 11.95, "currentFiveTOI": 10.316666666666666, "ppShare": 0.0, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/st-louis-blues/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:43.254262+00:00", "priorGP": 5, "currentTotalSOG": 0.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.0, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.00 SOG/game in 1 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 1 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.24, "currentIXG": 0.24, "priorTOI": 10.393333333333334, "priorPPTOI": 0.44333333333333336, "deploymentChange": 1.5566666666666649, "ppTOIChange": -0.44333333333333336, "h2hLog": [], "h2hGames": 0, "h2hAvailableGames": 0, "h2hSOG": null, "opponentDefense": { "team": "CAR", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 246.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 22.363636363636363, "mostAllowedRank": 31, "fiveSogAllowed60": 21.75191064079953, "pkSogAllowed60": 32.87187039764359, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 33.09090909090909, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 77.0, "R": 66.0, "D": 59.0, "L": 44.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.0, "L": 4.0, "R": 6.0, "D": 5.363636363636363 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 23.0, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 7, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 22.428571428571427, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 22.363636363636363, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.0, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8481611", "team": "CAR", "name": "Pyotr Kochetkov", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 6, "savePct": 0.8991596638655462, "gaa": 1.9842910293509715, "gsax": 2.2720000000000002, "goalsAllowed": 12.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 14.272, "shotsAgainst": 119.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9828959307519136, "factor": 0.9828959307519136, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T22:32:34.088Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.12123029335445214, "goalHistoryGoals": 0.0, "goalHistoryShots": 6.0, "goalExpected": 0.0, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.0, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.0, "goalProbability": 0.0, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 1, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 0.0, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 10.316666666666666, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.016414141414142, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.0, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9235603264096603, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.85, "Position_Factor": 0.9873314343303702, "Input_GP": 1, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 405.0, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.8646946313151299, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.437908496732026, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.8646946313151299, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.85, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 0, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481611", "goalieName": "Pyotr Kochetkov", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8483463", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481611", "goalieName": "Pyotr Kochetkov", "opponent": "STL", "games": 3, "availableGames": 3, "shotsAgainst": 60.0, "goalsAgainst": 6.0, "savePct": 0.9, "gaa": 2.610587382160986, "gsax": -0.46099999999999985, "log": [ { "gameId": "2024020284", "date": "20241117", "goalieTeam": "CAR", "opponent": "STL", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3598.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.005 }, { "gameId": "2024020084", "date": "20241019", "goalieTeam": "CAR", "opponent": "STL", "shotsAgainst": 19.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3476.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.804 }, { "gameId": "2022020369", "date": "20221201", "goalieTeam": "CAR", "opponent": "STL", "shotsAgainst": 11.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 1200.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 0.73 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.0, "adjustedSOG": 0.0, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.0, "adjustedSOG": 0.0, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.12123029335445214, "goalHistoryGoals": 0.0, "goalHistoryShots": 6.0, "goalExpected": 0.0, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.0, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.0, "goalProbability": 0.0, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12850411095571926, "modelSOG": 0.0, "historyGames": 6, "seasonGames": { "2025": 5, "2026": 1 }, "historyGoals": 0.0, "historyShots": 6.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.0, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.12123029335445214, "goalieFactor": 0.9828959307519136, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": 39.27051983584131, "btb": { "id": "8483463", "name": "Aleksanteri Kaskimaki", "score": 39.27051983584131, "components": { "Goal model": 0.6976744186046512, "SOG model": 0.6976744186046512, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 65.81395348837209, "Goalie": 50.14705882352941, "Team H2H": 50.0, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Team H2H unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 0, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 361 } }, { "id": "8477934", "name": "Leon Draisaitl", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "TOR", "position": "R", "currentGP": 9, "currentSOG": 3.5555555555555554, "priorSOG": 2.8615384615384616, "currentTOI": 21.401851851851852, "currentFiveTOI": 16.42962962962963, "ppShare": 0.718515594157126, "rate": 3.3062487829332716, "fifty": 3.4086877330190837, "inputs": { "Player": "Leon Draisaitl", "Player_ID": "8477934", "Team": "EDM", "Opponent": "TOR", "Position": "C", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 3.1425778781296843, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 3.421387979113813, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 9, "Prior_GP": 65, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 6.4923354373309285, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.517586525077806, "Current_PP_SOG60": 19.78021978021978, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 17.30129390018484, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 16.419279202279203, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 16.42962962962963, "Current_PP_Share": 0.718515594157126, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.8515060382031806, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1820.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2533.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 5, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.365824915824916, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 4.069509909005732, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 3.85542887753705, "Other_State_SOG": 0.32974358974358975, "Environment_Proxy": 1.1073475417853031, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 2.8615384615384616, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:43.272446+00:00", "priorGP": 65, "currentTotalSOG": 32.0, "currentPPTOI": 3.3703703703703702, "volumeNote": "Observed 3.56 SOG/game in 9 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 9 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 5.073, "currentIXG": 0.5636666666666668, "priorTOI": 21.575128205128205, "priorPPTOI": 3.4679487179487176, "deploymentChange": -0.1732763532763535, "ppTOIChange": -0.09757834757834738, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020891", "date": "20260203", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "TOR", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 8.0, "toi": 20.783333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2025020499", "date": "20251213", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "TOR", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 9.0, "toi": 21.133333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020833", "date": "20250201", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "TOR", "venue": "home", "sog": 6.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 11.0, "toi": 25.983333333333334 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 4.333333333333333, "opponentDefense": { "team": "TOR", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 332.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 30.181818181818183, "mostAllowedRank": 5, "fiveSogAllowed60": 28.565965583173995, "pkSogAllowed60": 43.340857787810386, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.0, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 130.0, "D": 98.0, "R": 49.0, "L": 55.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 11.818181818181818, "L": 5.0, "R": 4.454545454545454, "D": 8.909090909090908 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 30.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 35.25, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 30.181818181818183, "oppPosSogAllowed": 4.454545454545454, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8476932", "team": "TOR", "name": "Anthony Stolarz", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 4, "savePct": 0.8974358974358975, "gaa": 2.9929333518082304, "gsax": 0.46399999999999864, "goalsAllowed": 12.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 12.463999999999999, "shotsAgainst": 117.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9986972168772468, "factor": 0.9986972168772468, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T20:54:34.227Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.19287568620062198, "goalHistoryGoals": 95.0, "goalHistoryShots": 459.0, "goalExpected": 0.6733006296188969, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.6724234649220903, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.4899775984491417, "goalProbability": 0.4895300285363547, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.044756991278699365, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 9, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 3.490852802040352, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 6.4923354373309285, "Current_PP_SOG60": 19.78021978021978, "Current_5v5_Min": 16.42962962962963, "Current_PP_Share": 0.718515594157126, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.365824915824916, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 3.85542887753705, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.6666666666666666, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0610638532936316, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9495764141752431, "Position_Factor": 0.9668459160608084, "Input_GP": 9, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1820.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2533.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.517586525077806, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 17.30129390018484, "Prior_5v5_Min": 16.395128205128206, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.8515060382031806, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9097059588862867, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.382352941176471, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9097059588862867, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9495764141752431, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 6.4923354373309285, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 19.78021978021978, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 4.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 3.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020891", "date": "20260203", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "TOR", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 8.0, "toi": 20.783333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2025020499", "date": "20251213", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "TOR", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 9.0, "toi": 21.133333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020833", "date": "20250201", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "TOR", "venue": "home", "sog": 6.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 11.0, "toi": 25.983333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020274", "date": "20241116", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "TOR", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 9.0, "toi": 22.15 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Reviewed October22 projected lineup and coach reports", "ppAssignmentSourceDate": "2026-10-13T18:05:51.141Z", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 156, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. 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Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476932", "goalieName": "Anthony Stolarz", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8477934", "goals": 2, "sog": 9, "shootingPct": 0.2222222222222222, "gamesWithAttempts": 3, "recordedAttempts": 15, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020891", "date": "20260203", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 4, "attempts": 7 }, { "gameId": "2024020274", "date": "20241116", "season": 2024, "goals": 1, "sog": 3, "attempts": 6 }, { "gameId": "2021020049", "date": "20211019", "season": 2021, "goals": 1, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476932", "goalieName": "Anthony Stolarz", "opponent": "EDM", "games": 5, "availableGames": 5, "shotsAgainst": 140.0, "goalsAgainst": 14.0, "savePct": 0.9, "gaa": 3.2642487046632125, "gsax": -1.5539999999999994, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020891", "date": "20260203", "goalieTeam": "TOR", "opponent": "EDM", "shotsAgainst": 36.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.709 }, { "gameId": "2024020274", "date": "20241116", "goalieTeam": "TOR", "opponent": "EDM", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3640.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.584 }, { "gameId": "2022020660", "date": "20230111", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "EDM", "shotsAgainst": 16.0, "goalsAgainst": 0.0, "seconds": 1200.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.249 }, { "gameId": "2021020049", "date": "20211019", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "EDM", "shotsAgainst": 36.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3461.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.959 }, { "gameId": "2018020494", "date": "20181214", "goalieTeam": "PHI", "opponent": "EDM", "shotsAgainst": 22.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3539.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.945 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 3.490852802040352, "adjustedSOG": 3.490852802040352, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 3.490852802040352, "adjustedSOG": 3.490852802040352, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.19287568620062198, "goalHistoryGoals": 95.0, "goalHistoryShots": 459.0, "goalExpected": 0.6733006296188969, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.6733006296188969, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.4899775984491417, "goalProbability": 0.4899775984491417, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12817508586147683, "modelSOG": 3.490852802040352, "historyGames": 145, "seasonGames": { "2024": 71, "2025": 65, "2026": 9 }, "historyGoals": 95.0, "historyShots": 459.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.20697167755991286, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.19287568620062198, "goalieFactor": 0.9986972168772468, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 68.43588193682973, "btb": { "id": "8477934", "name": "Leon Draisaitl", "score": 68.43588193682973, "components": { "Goal model": 100.0, "SOG model": 97.67441860465117, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 98.83720930232558, "Goalie": 60.73529411764706, "Team H2H": 48.47071988064155, "Goalie H2H": 53.2430268250367 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": 9, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 11 } }, { "id": "8478882", "name": "Vladislav Gavrikov", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "OTT", "position": "D", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 1.3636363636363635, "priorSOG": 1.451219512195122, "currentTOI": 21.01060606060606, "currentFiveTOI": 17.503030303030304, "ppShare": 0.01679340937896071, "rate": 1.2591580317950823, "fifty": 1.2305164807109468, "inputs": { "Player": "Vladislav Gavrikov", "Player_ID": "8478882", "Team": "NYR", "Opponent": "OTT", "Position": "D", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.2199937907720326, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.230674484656765, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 11, "Prior_GP": 82, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.051246537396122, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.6253776435045317, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 7.841428882596384, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 18.125352919438285, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 17.503030303030304, "Current_PP_Share": 0.01679340937896071, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.25466789442737164, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 53.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3156.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 7, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.145909090909091, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.4536415005223329, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.0864173579905519, "Other_State_SOG": 0.14988913525498895, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9343896732646498, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.451219512195122, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-york-rangers/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:43.290598+00:00", "priorGP": 82, "currentTotalSOG": 15.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.0803030303030303, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.36 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.504, "currentIXG": 0.04581818181818182, "priorTOI": 23.72520325203252, "priorPPTOI": 0.933130081300813, "deploymentChange": -2.71459719142646, "ppTOIChange": -0.8528270509977827, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021119", "date": "20260323", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 20.733333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020737", "date": "20260114", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 23.866666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020427", "date": "20251204", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 25.266666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020382", "date": "20241130", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 23.233333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020043", "date": "20241014", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 25.8 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 5, "h2hSOG": 1.2, "opponentDefense": { "team": "OTT", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 255.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 25.5, "mostAllowedRank": 25, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.477120373069077, "pkSogAllowed60": 46.82395644283122, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 38.7, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 67.0, "C": 98.0, "R": 48.0, "L": 42.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.8, "L": 4.2, "R": 4.8, "D": 6.7 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 24.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 22.6, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 25.5, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.7, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8477992", "team": "OTT", "name": "Jonas Johansson", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 0, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "goalsAllowed": null, "xGoalsAgainst": null, "shotsAgainst": null, "scenarioFactor": 1, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; no matching goalie statistics in this snapshot, so the goalie factor remains neutral.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T15:15:50.280Z", "idResolution": "Exact goalie name mapped to one unique MoneyPuck player ID" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.07443287479943338, "goalHistoryGoals": 20.0, "goalHistoryShots": 246.0, "goalExpected": 0.09567674811085075, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.09567674811085075, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.09124227375324809, "goalProbability": 0.09124227375324809, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.2854098188288583, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.051246537396122, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 17.503030303030304, "Current_PP_Share": 0.01679340937896071, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.145909090909091, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.0864173579905519, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.18181818181818182, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9604171757553249, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9920036605974645, "Position_Factor": 0.9967592108017584, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 53.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3156.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.6253776435045317, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 7.841428882596384, "Prior_5v5_Min": 19.577439024390245, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.25466789442737164, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9560053380782918, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.34640522875817, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9560053380782918, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9920036605974645, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 4.051246537396122, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 1.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021119", "date": "20260323", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 20.733333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020737", "date": "20260114", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 23.866666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020427", "date": "20251204", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 25.266666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020382", "date": "20241130", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 23.233333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020043", "date": "20241014", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 25.8 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 161, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 17, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477992", "goalieName": "Jonas Johansson", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8478882", "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 3, "recordedAttempts": 3, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020391", "date": "20251129", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2021020816", "date": "20220224", "season": 2021, "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2021020145", "date": "20211103", "season": 2021, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477992", "goalieName": "Jonas Johansson", "opponent": "NYR", "games": 4, "availableGames": 4, "shotsAgainst": 43.0, "goalsAgainst": 6.0, "savePct": 0.8604651162790697, "gaa": 2.615328732292045, "gsax": -1.567, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020391", "date": "20251129", "goalieTeam": "TBL", "opponent": "NYR", "shotsAgainst": 13.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.688 }, { "gameId": "2025020265", "date": "20251112", "goalieTeam": "TBL", "opponent": "NYR", "shotsAgainst": 7.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 993.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 0.748 }, { "gameId": "2024021310", "date": "20250417", "goalieTeam": "TBL", "opponent": "NYR", "shotsAgainst": 22.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3573.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.983 }, { "gameId": "2021020399", "date": "20211208", "goalieTeam": "COL", "opponent": "NYR", "shotsAgainst": 1.0, "goalsAgainst": 0.0, "seconds": 93.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 0.014 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.2854098188288583, "adjustedSOG": 1.2854098188288583, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.3116426722743453, "adjustedSOG": 1.2854098188288583, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.07443287479943338, "goalHistoryGoals": 20.0, "goalHistoryShots": 246.0, "goalExpected": 0.09762933480699057, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.09762933480699057, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.09301497076401744, "goalProbability": 0.09301497076401744, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.057537746806039486, "modelSOG": 1.2854098188288583, "historyGames": 175, "seasonGames": { "2024": 82, "2025": 82, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 20.0, "historyShots": 246.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.08130081300813008, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.07443287479943338, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 43.274060355820026, "btb": { "id": "8478882", "name": "Vladislav Gavrikov", "score": 43.274060355820026, "components": { "Goal model": 33.25581395348837, "SOG model": 46.27906976744186, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 4.186046511627907, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 59.268929503916446, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 5, "goalieH2HShots": 1, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 302 } }, { "id": "8484388", "name": "Daniil But", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "TBL", "position": "R", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 1.1, "priorSOG": 1.4827586206896552, "currentTOI": 11.113333333333333, "currentFiveTOI": 10.391666666666667, "ppShare": 0.10247349823321555, "rate": 1.2110455305761716, "fifty": 1.1042437638129083, "inputs": { "Player": "Daniil But", "Player_ID": "8484388", "Team": "UTA", "Opponent": "TBL", "Position": "L", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.5059830346732257, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.3149581426940926, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 10, "Prior_GP": 29, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.196471531676022, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.7647979956154085, "Current_PP_SOG60": 22.570532915360502, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 10.737111205794632, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 10.577270114942529, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 10.391666666666667, "Current_PP_Share": 0.10247349823321555, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.2832365144251147, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 319.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3113.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 6, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.821018518518519, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.7554651871970296, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.494026632639707, "Other_State_SOG": 0.0, "Environment_Proxy": 0.8844868901771036, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.4827586206896552, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/utah-mammoth/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:43.308888+00:00", "priorGP": 29, "currentTotalSOG": 11.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.5316666666666666, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.10 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.4749999999999999, "currentIXG": 0.1475, "priorTOI": 12.469540229885057, "priorPPTOI": 1.3488505747126438, "deploymentChange": -1.3562068965517238, "ppTOIChange": -0.8171839080459772, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020825", "date": "20260126", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 12.833333333333334 } ], "h2hGames": 1, "h2hAvailableGames": 1, "h2hSOG": 2.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "TBL", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 218.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 24.22222222222222, "mostAllowedRank": 29, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.310572168589594, "pkSogAllowed60": 47.9002079002079, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 36.333333333333336, "positionUnassignedSOG": 1.0, "positionTotals": { "L": 36.0, "R": 49.0, "D": 66.0, "C": 66.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.333333333333333, "L": 4.0, "R": 5.444444444444445, "D": 7.333333333333333 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 24.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.25, "positionSourceDifference": 1.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 24.22222222222222, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.444444444444445, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8483710", "team": "TBL", "name": "Dennis Hildeby", "status": "Unconfirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 2, "savePct": 0.92, "gaa": 2.0089285714285716, "gsax": 0.8719999999999999, "goalsAllowed": 4.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.872, "shotsAgainst": 50.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9926942170737747, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Starter remains unconfirmed per Daily Faceoff; no Model Goal adjustment.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": null }, "goalShootingPct": 0.11591852044829863, "goalHistoryGoals": 5.0, "goalHistoryShots": 54.0, "goalExpected": 0.12650940675067596, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.12650940675067596, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.11883413940302526, "goalProbability": 0.11883413940302526, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.0913649196126602, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.196471531676022, "Current_PP_SOG60": 22.570532915360502, "Current_5v5_Min": 10.391666666666667, "Current_PP_Share": 0.10247349823321555, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.821018518518519, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.494026632639707, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9588832837562793, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0032616490671127, "Position_Factor": 1.0162667912072254, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 319.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3113.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.7647979956154085, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 10.737111205794632, "Prior_5v5_Min": 11.010344827586207, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.2832365144251147, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.005464480874317, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.382352941176471, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.005464480874317, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0032616490671127, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.196471531676022, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 22.570532915360502, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 2.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020825", "date": "20260126", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 12.833333333333334 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 58, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. 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Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8483710", "goalieName": "Dennis Hildeby", "starterStatus": "Unconfirmed", "shooterId": "8484388", "goals": 1, "sog": 2, "shootingPct": 0.5, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 2, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020733", "date": "20260113", "season": 2025, "goals": 1, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8483710", "goalieName": "Dennis Hildeby", "opponent": "UTA", "games": 1, "availableGames": 1, "shotsAgainst": 41.0, "goalsAgainst": 6.0, "savePct": 0.8536585365853658, "gaa": 6.0, "gsax": -1.2770000000000001, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020733", "date": "20260113", "goalieTeam": "TOR", "opponent": "UTA", "shotsAgainst": 41.0, "goalsAgainst": 6.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.723 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.0913649196126602, "adjustedSOG": 1.0913649196126602, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.0913649196126602, "adjustedSOG": 1.0913649196126602, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. 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Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 2.766, "currentIXG": 0.2766, "priorTOI": 15.551016260162603, "priorPPTOI": 0.9471544715447155, "deploymentChange": 1.0089837398373955, "ppTOIChange": 0.40617886178861773, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2026020105", "date": "20261013", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 2.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 18.683333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025021027", "date": "20260312", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 17.35 }, { "gameId": "2025020351", "date": "20251123", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 14.116666666666667 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 3, "h2hSOG": 2.6666666666666665, "opponentDefense": { "team": "SJS", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 286.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 28.6, "mostAllowedRank": 10, "fiveSogAllowed60": 25.210423540502322, "pkSogAllowed60": 49.90958408679928, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 47.8, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 86.0, "C": 94.0, "R": 53.0, "L": 53.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.4, "L": 5.3, "R": 5.3, "D": 8.6 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 30.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 29.833333333333332, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 28.6, "oppPosSogAllowed": 9.4, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8477968", "team": "SJS", "name": "Alex Nedeljkovic", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 4, "savePct": 0.9173553719008265, "gaa": 2.372479240806643, "gsax": 4.638, "goalsAllowed": 10.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 14.638, "shotsAgainst": 121.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9618500831522029, "factor": 0.9618500831522029, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T16:06:01.887Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.13852384594370556, "goalHistoryGoals": 24.0, "goalHistoryShots": 166.0, "goalExpected": 0.36625114891798644, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.3522786980413551, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.3066713493986048, "goalProbability": 0.2969158535059178, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.9755495892686983, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 2.643957409808175, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 10.413784429631493, "Current_PP_SOG60": 13.300492610837438, "Current_5v5_Min": 13.251666666666669, "Current_PP_Share": 0.30956919557758295, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.950833333333334, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.5326254924386837, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9930883597207428, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0259958714356598, "Position_Factor": 0.9935572564554559, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 812.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2623.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.210259708933022, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 10.815450643776824, "Prior_5v5_Min": 12.639227642276424, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.21600875159920646, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9979916897506925, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.437908496732026, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9979916897506925, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0259958714356598, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 10.413784429631493, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 13.300492610837438, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.0 }, { "season": "2026", "label": "2026–27", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 4.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2026020105", "date": "20261013", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 2.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 18.683333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025021027", "date": "20260312", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 17.35 }, { "gameId": "2025020351", "date": "20251123", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 14.116666666666667 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "ppAssignmentSourceDate": "2026-10-12T22:24:39.463Z", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 136, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 24, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477968", "goalieName": "Alex Nedeljkovic", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8483489", "goals": 1, "sog": 4, "shootingPct": 0.25, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 5, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021027", "date": "20260312", "season": 2025, "goals": 1, "sog": 4, "attempts": 5 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477968", "goalieName": "Alex Nedeljkovic", "opponent": "BOS", "games": 5, "availableGames": 8, "shotsAgainst": 134.0, "goalsAgainst": 17.0, "savePct": 0.8731343283582089, "gaa": 3.7850207186591627, "gsax": -3.2609999999999997, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021027", "date": "20260312", "goalieTeam": "SJS", "opponent": "BOS", "shotsAgainst": 41.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.661 }, { "gameId": "2024020952", "date": "20250301", "goalieTeam": "PIT", "opponent": "BOS", "shotsAgainst": 25.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3474.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.566 }, { "gameId": "2023021279", "date": "20240413", "goalieTeam": "PIT", "opponent": "BOS", "shotsAgainst": 16.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 1895.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.22 }, { "gameId": "2023021012", "date": "20240309", "goalieTeam": "PIT", "opponent": "BOS", "shotsAgainst": 23.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.955 }, { "gameId": "2023020589", "date": "20240104", "goalieTeam": "PIT", "opponent": "BOS", "shotsAgainst": 29.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.337 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 2.643957409808175, "adjustedSOG": 2.643957409808175, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 2.643957409808175, "adjustedSOG": 2.643957409808175, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.13852384594370556, "goalHistoryGoals": 24.0, "goalHistoryShots": 166.0, "goalExpected": 0.36625114891798644, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.36625114891798644, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.3066713493986048, "goalProbability": 0.3066713493986048, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1284734302102568, "modelSOG": 2.643957409808175, "historyGames": 113, "seasonGames": { "2024": 21, "2025": 82, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 24.0, "historyShots": 166.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.14457831325301204, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.13852384594370556, "goalieFactor": 0.9618500831522029, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 69.70368865102863, "btb": { "id": "8483489", "name": "Fraser Minten", "score": 69.70368865102863, "components": { "Goal model": 92.55813953488372, "SOG model": 90.0, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 80.46511627906976, "Goalie": 97.5, "Team H2H": 57.923277766619805, "Goalie H2H": 52.070574511519396 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 3, "goalieH2HShots": 4, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 7 } }, { "id": "8482072", "name": "Jack Ahcan", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "PIT", "position": "D", "currentGP": 3, "currentSOG": 0.0, "priorSOG": 0.8181818181818182, "currentTOI": 7.605555555555555, "currentFiveTOI": 6.588888888888889, "ppShare": 0.23828125, "rate": 0.5721209443046295, "fifty": 0.32697292810648704, "inputs": { "Player": "Jack Ahcan", "Player_ID": "8482072", "Team": "NSH", "Opponent": "PIT", "Position": "D", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 0.4947814710081325, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 0.2865215076466106, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 3, "Prior_GP": 11, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 0.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.27892234548336, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 8.054040404040403, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 6.588888888888889, "Current_PP_Share": 0.23828125, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.0022127432684617434, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 183.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 768.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 2, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.906041666666667, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.8215691618216044, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 1.1690177408854168, "Other_State_SOG": 0.0, "Environment_Proxy": 1.0227478110844896, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 0.8181818181818182, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/nashville-predators/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:43.344511+00:00", "priorGP": 11, "currentTotalSOG": 0.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.0166666666666666, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.00 SOG/game in 3 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 3 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.016, "currentIXG": 0.005333333333333333, "priorTOI": 11.531818181818181, "priorPPTOI": 0.012121212121212121, "deploymentChange": -3.926262626262626, "ppTOIChange": 1.0045454545454544, "h2hLog": [], "h2hGames": 0, "h2hAvailableGames": 0, "h2hSOG": null, "opponentDefense": { "team": "PIT", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 279.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.9, "mostAllowedRank": 12, "fiveSogAllowed60": 26.122338261223383, "pkSogAllowed60": 50.11600928074246, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 42.4, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 55.0, "L": 47.0, "D": 70.0, "C": 107.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.7, "L": 4.7, "R": 5.5, "D": 7.0 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 25.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 3, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 28.333333333333332, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.9, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.0, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8481668", "team": "PIT", "name": "Arturs Silovs", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 6, "savePct": 0.8662420382165605, "gaa": 3.5131744040150563, "gsax": -1.0760000000000005, "goalsAllowed": 21.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 19.924, "shotsAgainst": 157.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0136052553954562, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Likely starter per Daily Faceoff; no Model Goal adjustment until confirmed.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T15:01:09.604Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.05244189807328004, "goalHistoryGoals": 0.0, "goalHistoryShots": 10.0, "goalExpected": 0.0, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.0, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.0, "goalProbability": 0.0, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 3, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 0.0, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 6.588888888888889, "Current_PP_Share": 0.23828125, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.906041666666667, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.1690177408854168, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.011083778612368, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0249142728068137, "Position_Factor": 0.9912682240844909, "Input_GP": 3, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 183.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 768.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.27892234548336, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 11.472727272727273, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.0022127432684617434, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9764234875444839, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.34640522875817, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9764234875444839, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0249142728068137, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 0, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 11, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481668", "goalieName": "Arturs Silovs", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8482072", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481668", "goalieName": "Arturs Silovs", "opponent": "NSH", "games": 2, "availableGames": 2, "shotsAgainst": 62.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "savePct": 0.9193548387096774, "gaa": 2.397123451857771, "gsax": 1.6559999999999997, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020281", "date": "20251114", "goalieTeam": "PIT", "opponent": "NSH", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3644.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.231 }, { "gameId": "2022021010", "date": "20230306", "goalieTeam": "VAN", "opponent": "NSH", "shotsAgainst": 32.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3865.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.425 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.0, "adjustedSOG": 0.0, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.0, "adjustedSOG": 0.0, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.05244189807328004, "goalHistoryGoals": 0.0, "goalHistoryShots": 10.0, "goalExpected": 0.0, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.0, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.0, "goalProbability": 0.0, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05768608788060805, "modelSOG": 0.0, "historyGames": 16, "seasonGames": { "2024": 2, "2025": 11, "2026": 3 }, "historyGoals": 0.0, "historyShots": 10.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.0, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.05244189807328004, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8479996", "name": "Cody Glass", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "LAK", "position": "C", "currentGP": 9, "currentSOG": 1.4444444444444444, "priorSOG": 1.4857142857142858, "currentTOI": 12.285185185185185, "currentFiveTOI": 9.757407407407406, "ppShare": 0.06840750275836704, "rate": 1.3360665894159862, "fifty": 1.295702677362965, "inputs": { "Player": "Cody Glass", "Player_ID": "8479996", "Team": "NJD", "Opponent": "LAK", "Position": "C", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.2495773877868757, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.2216548875444735, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 9, "Prior_GP": 70, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 6.832416018219776, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.774478094678036, "Current_PP_SOG60": 19.35483870967742, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 4.669260700389105, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 10.474113756613756, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 9.757407407407406, "Current_PP_Share": 0.06840750275836704, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.09466114269543643, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 186.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2719.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 4, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.972354497354498, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.3793090753772604, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.34014635399335663, "Other_State_SOG": 0.09936507936507938, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9908219918860978, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.4857142857142858, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-jersey-devils/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:43.363582+00:00", "priorGP": 70, "currentTotalSOG": 13.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.34444444444444444, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.44 SOG/game in 9 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 9 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.548, "currentIXG": 0.17200000000000001, "priorTOI": 13.613809523809524, "priorPPTOI": 0.36714285714285716, "deploymentChange": -1.3286243386243388, "ppTOIChange": -0.022698412698412718, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021050", "date": "20260314", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 14.183333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020748", "date": "20250120", "team": "PIT", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 13.983333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020499", "date": "20241217", "team": "PIT", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 13.183333333333334 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 3, "h2hSOG": 2.3333333333333335, "opponentDefense": { "team": "LAK", "games": 7, "sogAllowedTotal": 193.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.571428571428573, "mostAllowedRank": 14, "fiveSogAllowed60": 25.227874154660395, "pkSogAllowed60": 57.61396702230844, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 39.142857142857146, "positionUnassignedSOG": 1.0, "positionTotals": { "C": 86.0, "D": 47.0, "R": 28.0, "L": 31.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 12.285714285714286, "L": 4.428571428571429, "R": 4.0, "D": 6.714285714285714 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 27.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 29.5, "positionSourceDifference": 1.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.571428571428573, "oppPosSogAllowed": 12.285714285714286, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8476341", "team": "LAK", "name": "Anton Forsberg", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 3, "savePct": 0.8833333333333333, "gaa": 2.6313041662315966, "gsax": -2.1049999999999995, "goalsAllowed": 7.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.8950000000000005, "shotsAgainst": 60.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0218332511814823, "factor": 1.0218332511814823, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T19:00:24.293Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.12613757618174934, "goalHistoryGoals": 26.0, "goalHistoryShots": 208.0, "goalExpected": 0.20062729061881673, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.2050076366487576, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.18178266799381415, "goalProbability": 0.1853589047402478, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.35762367464336475, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 9, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.5905434105514802, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 6.832416018219776, "Current_PP_SOG60": 19.35483870967742, "Current_5v5_Min": 9.757407407407406, "Current_PP_Share": 0.06840750275836704, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.972354497354498, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.34014635399335663, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.2222222222222222, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9946407827573338, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.085978140946376, "Position_Factor": 1.0294279115633451, "Input_GP": 9, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 186.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2719.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.774478094678036, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 4.669260700389105, "Prior_5v5_Min": 12.146428571428572, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.09466114269543643, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.124246374450057, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.437908496732026, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.124246374450057, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.085978140946376, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 6.832416018219776, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 19.35483870967742, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 2.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021050", "date": "20260314", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 14.183333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020748", "date": "20250120", "team": "PIT", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 13.983333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020499", "date": "20241217", "team": "PIT", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 13.183333333333334 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. 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Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.12613757618174934, "goalHistoryGoals": 26.0, "goalHistoryShots": 208.0, "goalExpected": 0.20062729061881673, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.20062729061881673, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.18178266799381415, "goalProbability": 0.18178266799381415, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12850373463978798, "modelSOG": 1.5905434105514802, "historyGames": 144, "seasonGames": { "2024": 65, "2025": 70, "2026": 9 }, "historyGoals": 26.0, "historyShots": 208.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.125, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.12613757618174934, "goalieFactor": 1.0218332511814823, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 58.74521869183963, "btb": { "id": "8479996", "name": "Cody Glass", "score": 58.74521869183963, "components": { "Goal model": 67.20930232558139, "SOG model": 59.30232558139535, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 56.04651162790697, "Goalie": 76.61764705882354, "Team H2H": 59.550110463948585, "Goalie H2H": 51.39309509388249 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 3, "goalieH2HShots": 2, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 100 } }, { "id": "8484428", "name": "Charles Alexis Legault", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "STL", "position": "D", "currentGP": 2, "currentSOG": 1.0, "priorSOG": 1, "currentTOI": 11.891666666666667, "currentFiveTOI": 11.183333333333334, "ppShare": 0.0, "rate": 0.9419078270497105, "fifty": 1.0073695581420954, "inputs": { "Player": "Charles Alexis Legault", "Player_ID": "8484428", "Team": "CAR", "Opponent": "STL", "Position": "D", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 0.99131495264041, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.060860840826576, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 2, "Prior_GP": 12, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.365126676602086, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.8432795985907973, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 11.73125, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 11.183333333333334, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0, "Prior_PP_Share": 0, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1102.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 2, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 6.0017676767676775, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.0, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.0, "Other_State_SOG": 0.15, "Environment_Proxy": 1.00049372648272, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:43.380140+00:00", "priorGP": 12, "currentTotalSOG": 2.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.0, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.00 SOG/game in 2 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 2 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.092, "currentIXG": 0.046, "priorTOI": 14.294444444444444, "priorPPTOI": 0, "deploymentChange": -2.402777777777777, "ppTOIChange": 0.0, "h2hLog": [], "h2hGames": 0, "h2hAvailableGames": 0, "h2hSOG": null, "opponentDefense": { "team": "STL", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 246.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.333333333333332, "mostAllowedRank": 15, "fiveSogAllowed60": 24.991224991224993, "pkSogAllowed60": 45.92737978410206, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 41.333333333333336, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 29.0, "L": 56.0, "D": 69.0, "C": 92.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.222222222222221, "L": 6.222222222222222, "R": 3.2222222222222223, "D": 7.666666666666667 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 27.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 3, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27.666666666666668, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.333333333333332, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.666666666666667, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8480981", "team": "STL", "name": "Joel Hofer", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 6, "savePct": 0.9192546583850931, "gaa": 2.1949160491511117, "gsax": 2.83, "goalsAllowed": 13.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 15.83, "shotsAgainst": 161.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9785370006226618, "factor": 0.9785370006226618, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T15:44:23.131Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.05935817085340772, "goalHistoryGoals": 1.0, "goalHistoryShots": 14.0, "goalExpected": 0.059372234926479375, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.05809792868522117, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.057644073925733445, "goalProbability": 0.05644245843719628, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.12016154885371652, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 2, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.0002369357557594, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.365126676602086, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 11.183333333333334, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 6.0017676767676775, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.0, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9895702550696535, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9828075032932179, "Position_Factor": 1.0047192141124446, "Input_GP": 2, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1102.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.8432795985907973, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 13.009722222222223, "Prior_PP_Share": 0, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0206499344446525, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.34640522875817, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0206499344446525, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9828075032932179, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.365126676602086, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Reviewed October22 projected lineup and coach reports", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 20, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480981", "goalieName": "Joel Hofer", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8484428", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480981", "goalieName": "Joel Hofer", "opponent": "CAR", "games": 4, "availableGames": 4, "shotsAgainst": 121.0, "goalsAgainst": 10.0, "savePct": 0.9173553719008265, "gaa": 2.5300442757748263, "gsax": 1.0949999999999998, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020730", "date": "20260113", "goalieTeam": "STL", "opponent": "CAR", "shotsAgainst": 33.0, "goalsAgainst": 0.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.698 }, { "gameId": "2024020284", "date": "20241117", "goalieTeam": "STL", "opponent": "CAR", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.293 }, { "gameId": "2024020084", "date": "20241019", "goalieTeam": "STL", "opponent": "CAR", "shotsAgainst": 40.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.792 }, { "gameId": "2021020216", "date": "20211113", "goalieTeam": "STL", "opponent": "CAR", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3429.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.312 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.0002369357557594, "adjustedSOG": 1.0002369357557594, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.0206499344446525, "adjustedSOG": 1.0002369357557594, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.05935817085340772, "goalHistoryGoals": 1.0, "goalHistoryShots": 14.0, "goalExpected": 0.06058391319028507, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.05928360069920527, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.05878521463081681, "goalProbability": 0.057560545234712865, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.12246693961039459 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.0576683147728848, "modelSOG": 1.0002369357557594, "historyGames": 14, "seasonGames": { "2025": 12, "2026": 2 }, "historyGoals": 1.0, "historyShots": 14.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.07142857142857142, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.05935817085340772, "goalieFactor": 0.9785370006226618, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8485406", "name": "Porter Martone", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "ANA", "position": "L", "currentGP": 12, "currentSOG": 1.0833333333333333, "priorSOG": 3.5555555555555554, "currentTOI": 13.533333333333333, "currentFiveTOI": 11.133333333333333, "ppShare": 0.44011627906976747, "rate": 3.080370075331777, "fifty": 2.4347762706280096, "inputs": { "Player": "Porter Martone", "Player_ID": "8485406", "Team": "PHI", "Opponent": "ANA", "Position": "R", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 3.343091010828794, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 2.465695475580105, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 12, "Prior_GP": 9, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.694610778443114, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 10.751850409037788, "Current_PP_SOG60": 16.6446499339498, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 15.845070422535212, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 12.071666666666665, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 11.133333333333333, "Current_PP_Share": 0.44011627906976747, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.4940534531552975, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1514.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3440.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 7, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.042592592592593, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 2.300922047069345, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 2.2193270887166237, "Other_State_SOG": 0.39999999999999997, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9949214190083264, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 3.5555555555555554, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/philadelphia-flyers/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:43.399317+00:00", "priorGP": 9, "currentTotalSOG": 13.0, "currentPPTOI": 2.102777777777778, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.08 SOG/game in 12 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 12 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.744, "currentIXG": 0.14533333333333334, "priorTOI": 17.04074074074074, "priorPPTOI": 2.1037037037037036, "deploymentChange": -3.507407407407408, "ppTOIChange": -0.0009259259259257746, "h2hLog": [], "h2hGames": 0, "h2hAvailableGames": 0, "h2hSOG": null, "opponentDefense": { "team": "ANA", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 239.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 26.555555555555557, "mostAllowedRank": 18, "fiveSogAllowed60": 25.834281008587897, "pkSogAllowed60": 38.93928820655967, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 43.333333333333336, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 54.0, "C": 91.0, "R": 57.0, "L": 37.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.11111111111111, "L": 4.111111111111111, "R": 6.333333333333333, "D": 6.0 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 28.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.2, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 26.555555555555557, "oppPosSogAllowed": 4.111111111111111, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8480843", "team": "ANA", "name": "Lukas Dostal", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.8813559322033898, "gaa": 3.1634446397188047, "gsax": 2.846, "goalsAllowed": 21.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 23.846, "shotsAgainst": 177.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9815060369171769, "factor": 0.9815060369171769, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T16:38:16.530Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.12999676134558408, "goalHistoryGoals": 6.0, "goalHistoryShots": 45.0, "goalExpected": 0.13218346710747958, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.12973887094663428, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.12381976992016402, "goalProbability": 0.121675242910238, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.21445270099260255, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 12, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.0168212326158061, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.694610778443114, "Current_PP_SOG60": 16.6446499339498, "Current_5v5_Min": 11.133333333333333, "Current_PP_Share": 0.44011627906976747, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.042592592592593, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 2.2193270887166237, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0050173142237073, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9117211340641708, "Position_Factor": 0.9802148035352244, "Input_GP": 12, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1514.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3440.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 10.751850409037788, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 15.845070422535212, "Prior_5v5_Min": 14.261111111111111, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.4940534531552975, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9110121980224933, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.062091503267974, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9110121980224933, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9117211340641708, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 2.4393549261417538, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 19.399538106235564, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff latest reported chart; October 21 final lineup pending", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 26, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 10, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480843", "goalieName": "Lukas Dostal", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8485406", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480843", "goalieName": "Lukas Dostal", "opponent": "PHI", "games": 5, "availableGames": 5, "shotsAgainst": 155.0, "goalsAgainst": 18.0, "savePct": 0.8838709677419355, "gaa": 3.646595385481148, "gsax": -2.507999999999999, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021082", "date": "20260318", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 28.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3704.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.611 }, { "gameId": "2025020670", "date": "20260106", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 38.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3560.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.171 }, { "gameId": "2024020568", "date": "20241228", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3472.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.781 }, { "gameId": "2023020208", "date": "20231110", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 35.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3450.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.281 }, { "gameId": "2023020117", "date": "20231028", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3584.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.648 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.0168212326158061, "adjustedSOG": 1.0168212326158061, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.0168212326158061, "adjustedSOG": 1.0168212326158061, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.12999676134558408, "goalHistoryGoals": 6.0, "goalHistoryShots": 45.0, "goalExpected": 0.13218346710747958, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.13218346710747958, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.12381976992016402, "goalProbability": 0.12381976992016402, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12849530395109693, "modelSOG": 1.0168212326158061, "historyGames": 21, "seasonGames": { "2025": 9, "2026": 12 }, "historyGoals": 6.0, "historyShots": 45.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.13333333333333333, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.12999676134558408, "goalieFactor": 0.9815060369171769, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": 47.159712722298224, "btb": { "id": "8485406", "name": "Porter Martone", "score": 47.159712722298224, "components": { "Goal model": 46.74418604651163, "SOG model": 30.46511627906977, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 43.02325581395349, "Goalie": 44.85294117647059, "Team H2H": 50.0, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Team H2H unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 0, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 247 } }, { "id": "8478421", "name": "A.J. Greer", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "PHI", "position": "L", "currentGP": 8, "currentSOG": 2.0, "priorSOG": 1.3333333333333333, "currentTOI": 12.266666666666667, "currentFiveTOI": 11.858333333333333, "ppShare": 0.04044274159216688, "rate": 1.5998943679332474, "fifty": 1.8846203780236275, "inputs": { "Player": "A.J. Greer", "Player_ID": "8478421", "Team": "ANA", "Opponent": "PHI", "Position": "L", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.5393664782362597, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.888368124945057, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 8, "Prior_GP": 78, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 10.1194659170766, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.283415091219754, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 18.305084745762713, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 11.789871794871793, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 11.858333333333333, "Current_PP_Share": 0.04044274159216688, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.024659855948824527, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 95.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2349.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 4, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.388425925925926, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.19240924425480177, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.2179227173107548, "Other_State_SOG": 0.06923076923076923, "Environment_Proxy": 1.15, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.3333333333333333, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/anaheim-ducks/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:43.418795+00:00", "priorGP": 78, "currentTotalSOG": 16.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.19791666666666666, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.00 SOG/game in 8 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 8 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.88, "currentIXG": 0.235, "priorTOI": 12.428846153846154, "priorPPTOI": 0.12606837606837606, "deploymentChange": -0.16217948717948616, "ppTOIChange": 0.07184829059829059, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020363", "date": "20251126", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 14.733333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020044", "date": "20251013", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 8.1 }, { "gameId": "2025020012", "date": "20251009", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 8.05 }, { "gameId": "2024020689", "date": "20250113", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 8.183333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020414", "date": "20241205", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 8.1 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 6, "h2hSOG": 1.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "PHI", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 383.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 31.916666666666668, "mostAllowedRank": 2, "fiveSogAllowed60": 31.042564889030356, "pkSogAllowed60": 46.879209699146834, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.75, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 113.0, "C": 130.0, "R": 73.0, "L": 67.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.833333333333334, "L": 5.583333333333333, "R": 6.083333333333333, "D": 9.416666666666666 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 27.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.833333333333332, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 31.916666666666668, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.583333333333333, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8479361", "team": "PHI", "name": "Joseph Woll", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 6, "savePct": 0.9166666666666666, "gaa": 2.640143007746253, "gsax": 4.5710000000000015, "goalsAllowed": 16.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 20.571, "shotsAgainst": 192.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9655996195755495, "factor": 0.9655996195755495, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T14:50:13.988Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.12043114006592931, "goalHistoryGoals": 24.0, "goalHistoryShots": 206.0, "goalExpected": 0.2493025671335095, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.24072646398332467, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.22065586621273336, "goalProbability": 0.2139433882216514, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.6712477991081961, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 8, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 2.070083925112976, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 10.1194659170766, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 11.858333333333333, "Current_PP_Share": 0.04044274159216688, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.388425925925926, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.2179227173107548, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.1165260841882552, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9915761915723407, "Position_Factor": 0.9919806918148306, "Input_GP": 8, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 95.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2349.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.283415091219754, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 18.305084745762713, "Prior_5v5_Min": 11.630128205128205, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.024659855948824527, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0561652679147837, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.062091503267974, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0561652679147837, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9915761915723407, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 10.1194659170766, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 0.6666666666666666 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 1.3333333333333333 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020363", "date": "20251126", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 14.733333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020044", "date": "20251013", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 8.1 }, { "gameId": "2025020012", "date": "20251009", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 8.05 }, { "gameId": "2024020689", "date": "20250113", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 8.183333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020414", "date": "20241205", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 8.1 }, { "gameId": "2024020225", "date": "20241109", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 10.25 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 159, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479361", "goalieName": "Joseph Woll", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8478421", "goals": 2, "sog": 11, "shootingPct": 0.18181818181818182, "gamesWithAttempts": 6, "recordedAttempts": 20, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021270", "date": "20260411", "season": 2025, "goals": 1, "sog": 2, "attempts": 5 }, { "gameId": "2025020921", "date": "20260226", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2 }, { "gameId": "2025020672", "date": "20260106", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 6 }, { "gameId": "2025020413", "date": "20251202", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 4 }, { "gameId": "2024021237", "date": "20250408", "season": 2024, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2023020207", "date": "20231110", "season": 2023, "goals": 1, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479361", "goalieName": "Joseph Woll", "opponent": "ANA", "games": 3, "availableGames": 3, "shotsAgainst": 91.0, "goalsAgainst": 7.0, "savePct": 0.9230769230769231, "gaa": 2.6359832635983262, "gsax": 2.575, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021029", "date": "20260312", "goalieTeam": "TOR", "opponent": "ANA", "shotsAgainst": 40.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3567.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.449 }, { "gameId": "2024021176", "date": "20250330", "goalieTeam": "TOR", "opponent": "ANA", "shotsAgainst": 31.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3593.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.338 }, { "gameId": "2024020459", "date": "20241212", "goalieTeam": "TOR", "opponent": "ANA", "shotsAgainst": 20.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 2400.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.788 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 2.070083925112976, "adjustedSOG": 2.070083925112976, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 2.1123305358295674, "adjustedSOG": 2.070083925112976, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.12043114006592931, "goalHistoryGoals": 24.0, "goalHistoryShots": 206.0, "goalExpected": 0.25439037462603015, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.24563924896257625, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.22461094925360497, "goalProbability": 0.21779564493438552, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.6815304319219451 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1285192886017437, "modelSOG": 2.070083925112976, "historyGames": 167, "seasonGames": { "2024": 81, "2025": 78, "2026": 8 }, "historyGoals": 24.0, "historyShots": 206.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.11650485436893204, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.12043114006592931, "goalieFactor": 0.9655996195755495, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 54.813961267507636, "btb": { "id": "8478421", "name": "A.J. 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Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477424", "goalieName": "Juuse Saros", "opponent": "PIT", "games": 5, "availableGames": 13, "shotsAgainst": 131.0, "goalsAgainst": 15.0, "savePct": 0.8854961832061069, "gaa": 3.034219250435467, "gsax": -2.5649999999999995, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020296", "date": "20251116", "goalieTeam": "NSH", "opponent": "PIT", "shotsAgainst": 21.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3562.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.064 }, { "gameId": "2025020281", "date": "20251114", "goalieTeam": "NSH", "opponent": "PIT", "shotsAgainst": 17.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3637.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.622 }, { "gameId": "2024020830", "date": "20250201", "goalieTeam": "NSH", "opponent": "PIT", "shotsAgainst": 35.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3527.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.258 }, { "gameId": "2024020515", "date": "20241219", "goalieTeam": "NSH", "opponent": "PIT", "shotsAgainst": 20.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3657.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.863 }, { "gameId": "2023021289", "date": "20240415", "goalieTeam": "NSH", "opponent": "PIT", "shotsAgainst": 38.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3414.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.628 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.9684274438372799, "adjustedSOG": 0.9684274438372799, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.9684274438372799, "adjustedSOG": 0.9684274438372799, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.09970947934070329, "goalHistoryGoals": 3.0, "goalHistoryShots": 59.0, "goalExpected": 0.09656139620426335, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.09565754355567756, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.09204584905006248, "goalProbability": 0.09122482129777254, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.08210277522899406 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12853807215171822, "modelSOG": 0.9684274438372799, "historyGames": 55, "seasonGames": { "2024": 8, "2025": 39, "2026": 8 }, "historyGoals": 3.0, "historyShots": 59.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.05084745762711865, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.09970947934070329, "goalieFactor": 0.9906396066739361, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 47.849418677710155, "btb": { "id": "8482758", "name": "Ville Koivunen", "score": 47.849418677710155, "components": { "Goal model": 33.95348837209303, "SOG model": 26.046511627906977, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 42.325581395348834, "Goalie": 81.91176470588235, "Team H2H": 48.88440541182055, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 1, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 234 } }, { "id": "8478569", "name": "Noel Acciari", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "ANA", "position": "R", "currentGP": 12, "currentSOG": 0.8333333333333334, "priorSOG": 1.3880597014925373, "currentTOI": 14.294444444444444, "currentFiveTOI": 11.323611111111111, "ppShare": 0.0037790697674418604, "rate": 1.3593934128492067, "fifty": 1.1970316084514652, "inputs": { "Player": "Noel Acciari", "Player_ID": "8478569", "Team": "PHI", "Opponent": "ANA", "Position": "C", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.497559475079149, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.093836254959148, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 12, "Prior_GP": 67, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.415552557340856, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 7.0492294224699945, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 42.857142857142854, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 11.166005389718077, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 11.323611111111111, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0037790697674418604, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.009486921188311254, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 13.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3440.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 7, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.042592592592593, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.027691020004541468, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.01905630921619294, "Other_State_SOG": 0.08059701492537313, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9949214190083264, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.3880597014925373, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/philadelphia-flyers/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:43.455635+00:00", "priorGP": 67, "currentTotalSOG": 10.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.018055555555555557, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.83 SOG/game in 12 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 12 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.411, "currentIXG": 0.11758333333333333, "priorTOI": 13.707711442786069, "priorPPTOI": 0.0417910447761194, "deploymentChange": 0.5867330016583754, "ppTOIChange": -0.02373548922056384, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020470", "date": "20251209", "team": "PIT", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 11.366666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020769", "date": "20250123", "team": "PIT", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 9.816666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020163", "date": "20241031", "team": "PIT", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 13.083333333333334 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 3, "h2hSOG": 2.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "ANA", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 239.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 26.555555555555557, "mostAllowedRank": 18, "fiveSogAllowed60": 25.834281008587897, "pkSogAllowed60": 38.93928820655967, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 43.333333333333336, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 54.0, "C": 91.0, "R": 57.0, "L": 37.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.11111111111111, "L": 4.111111111111111, "R": 6.333333333333333, "D": 6.0 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 28.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.2, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 26.555555555555557, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.333333333333333, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8480843", "team": "ANA", "name": "Lukas Dostal", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.8813559322033898, "gaa": 3.1634446397188047, "gsax": 2.846, "goalsAllowed": 21.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 23.846, "shotsAgainst": 177.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9815060369171769, "factor": 0.9815060369171769, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T16:38:16.530Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.11457978118749547, "goalHistoryGoals": 19.0, "goalHistoryShots": 178.0, "goalExpected": 0.10347440693952713, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.1015607550775705, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.09830090031386404, "goalProbability": 0.09657371005949192, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.1727190254372124, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 12, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 0.9030773655450102, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.415552557340856, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 11.323611111111111, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0037790697674418604, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.042592592592593, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.01905630921619294, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0050173142237073, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9117211340641708, "Position_Factor": 1.0244899837906722, "Input_GP": 12, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 13.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3440.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 7.0492294224699945, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 42.857142857142854, "Prior_5v5_Min": 10.798258706467662, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.009486921188311254, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0836928386540121, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.382352941176471, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0836928386540121, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9117211340641708, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 4.819277108433735, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 1.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020470", "date": "20251209", "team": "PIT", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 11.366666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020769", "date": "20250123", "team": "PIT", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 9.816666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020163", "date": "20241031", "team": "PIT", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 13.083333333333334 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff latest reported chart; October 21 final lineup pending", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 118, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480843", "goalieName": "Lukas Dostal", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8478569", "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 4, "log": [ { "gameId": "2024020163", "date": "20241031", "season": 2024, "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 4 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480843", "goalieName": "Lukas Dostal", "opponent": "PHI", "games": 5, "availableGames": 5, "shotsAgainst": 155.0, "goalsAgainst": 18.0, "savePct": 0.8838709677419355, "gaa": 3.646595385481148, "gsax": -2.507999999999999, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021082", "date": "20260318", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 28.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3704.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.611 }, { "gameId": "2025020670", "date": "20260106", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 38.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3560.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.171 }, { "gameId": "2024020568", "date": "20241228", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3472.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.781 }, { "gameId": "2023020208", "date": "20231110", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 35.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3450.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.281 }, { "gameId": "2023020117", "date": "20231028", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3584.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.648 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.9030773655450102, "adjustedSOG": 0.9030773655450102, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.9030773655450102, "adjustedSOG": 0.9030773655450102, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.11457978118749547, "goalHistoryGoals": 19.0, "goalHistoryShots": 178.0, "goalExpected": 0.10347440693952713, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.10347440693952713, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.09830090031386404, "goalProbability": 0.09830090031386404, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1285317917012374, "modelSOG": 0.9030773655450102, "historyGames": 158, "seasonGames": { "2024": 79, "2025": 67, "2026": 12 }, "historyGoals": 19.0, "historyShots": 178.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.10674157303370786, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.11457978118749547, "goalieFactor": 0.9815060369171769, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 44.96717070685682, "btb": { "id": "8478569", "name": "Noel Acciari", "score": 44.96717070685682, "components": { "Goal model": 37.2093023255814, "SOG model": 22.558139534883722, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 29.767441860465116, "Goalie": 44.85294117647059, "Team H2H": 59.85137577826873, "Goalie H2H": 49.57658594562472 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 3, "goalieH2HShots": 3, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 272 } }, { "id": "8478047", "name": "Michael Bunting", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "ANA", "position": "L", "currentGP": 7, "currentSOG": 1.2857142857142858, "priorSOG": 1.7027027027027026, "currentTOI": 11.416666666666668, "currentFiveTOI": 9.523809523809524, "ppShare": 0.4043835616438356, "rate": 1.5290124348903444, "fifty": 1.447278915161148, "inputs": { "Player": "Michael Bunting", "Player_ID": "8478047", "Team": "PHI", "Opponent": "ANA", "Position": "L", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.6514400187965086, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.4236252916414365, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 7, "Prior_GP": 74, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.5, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.949040370615487, "Current_PP_SOG60": 19.51219512195122, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 9.237875288683602, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 10.342072072072071, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 9.523809523809524, "Current_PP_Share": 0.4043835616438356, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.36341350355118385, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 738.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1825.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 3, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.042592592592593, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 1.977162959074587, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 2.0391415525114156, "Other_State_SOG": 0.012162162162162163, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9949214190083264, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.7027027027027026, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/philadelphia-flyers/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:43.475820+00:00", "priorGP": 74, "currentTotalSOG": 9.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.7571428571428573, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.29 SOG/game in 7 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 7 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.79, "currentIXG": 0.11285714285714286, "priorTOI": 14.441441441441443, "priorPPTOI": 1.7554054054054056, "deploymentChange": -3.024774774774775, "ppTOIChange": 0.0017374517374517673, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020105", "date": "20251021", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 14.216666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024021096", "date": "20250320", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 15.433333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024021053", "date": "20250314", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 15.066666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020769", "date": "20250123", "team": "PIT", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 16.75 }, { "gameId": "2024020163", "date": "20241031", "team": "PIT", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "home", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 9.0, "toi": 14.616666666666667 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 5, "h2hSOG": 2.4, "opponentDefense": { "team": "ANA", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 239.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 26.555555555555557, "mostAllowedRank": 18, "fiveSogAllowed60": 25.834281008587897, "pkSogAllowed60": 38.93928820655967, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 43.333333333333336, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 54.0, "C": 91.0, "R": 57.0, "L": 37.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.11111111111111, "L": 4.111111111111111, "R": 6.333333333333333, "D": 6.0 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 28.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.2, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 26.555555555555557, "oppPosSogAllowed": 4.111111111111111, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8480843", "team": "ANA", "name": "Lukas Dostal", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.8813559322033898, "gaa": 3.1634446397188047, "gsax": 2.846, "goalsAllowed": 21.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 23.846, "shotsAgainst": 177.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9815060369171769, "factor": 0.9815060369171769, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T16:38:16.530Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.11757316005599135, "goalHistoryGoals": 33.0, "goalHistoryShots": 290.0, "goalExpected": 0.1475916589958534, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.14486210430305146, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.13721664715877752, "goalProbability": 0.13485841581260014, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.23582313461773807, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 7, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.2553176160746762, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.5, "Current_PP_SOG60": 19.51219512195122, "Current_5v5_Min": 9.523809523809524, "Current_PP_Share": 0.4043835616438356, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.042592592592593, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 2.0391415525114156, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0050173142237073, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9117211340641708, "Position_Factor": 0.9802148035352244, "Input_GP": 7, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 738.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1825.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.949040370615487, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 9.237875288683602, "Prior_5v5_Min": 12.251351351351351, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.36341350355118385, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9110121980224933, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.062091503267974, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9110121980224933, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9117211340641708, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 4.5, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 19.51219512195122, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 4, "sogPerGame": 3.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 0.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020105", "date": "20251021", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 14.216666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024021096", "date": "20250320", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 15.433333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024021053", "date": "20250314", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 15.066666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020769", "date": "20250123", "team": "PIT", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 16.75 }, { "gameId": "2024020163", "date": "20241031", "team": "PIT", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "home", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 9.0, "toi": 14.616666666666667 } ], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff latest reported chart; October 21 final lineup pending", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 189, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 33, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480843", "goalieName": "Lukas Dostal", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8478047", "goals": 1, "sog": 12, "shootingPct": 0.08333333333333333, "gamesWithAttempts": 5, "recordedAttempts": 24, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020105", "date": "20251021", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 3 }, { "gameId": "2024021053", "date": "20250314", "season": 2024, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 3 }, { "gameId": "2024020163", "date": "20241031", "season": 2024, "goals": 0, "sog": 5, "attempts": 9 }, { "gameId": "2023020034", "date": "20231015", "season": 2023, "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 5 }, { "gameId": "2022020454", "date": "20221213", "season": 2022, "goals": 1, "sog": 3, "attempts": 4 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480843", "goalieName": "Lukas Dostal", "opponent": "PHI", "games": 5, "availableGames": 5, "shotsAgainst": 155.0, "goalsAgainst": 18.0, "savePct": 0.8838709677419355, "gaa": 3.646595385481148, "gsax": -2.507999999999999, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021082", "date": "20260318", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 28.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3704.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.611 }, { "gameId": "2025020670", "date": "20260106", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 38.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3560.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.171 }, { "gameId": "2024020568", "date": "20241228", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3472.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.781 }, { "gameId": "2023020208", "date": "20231110", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 35.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3450.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.281 }, { "gameId": "2023020117", "date": "20231028", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3584.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.648 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.2553176160746762, "adjustedSOG": 1.2553176160746762, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.2553176160746762, "adjustedSOG": 1.2553176160746762, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.11757316005599135, "goalHistoryGoals": 33.0, "goalHistoryShots": 290.0, "goalExpected": 0.1475916589958534, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.1475916589958534, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.13721664715877752, "goalProbability": 0.13721664715877752, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12853532421836628, "modelSOG": 1.2553176160746762, "historyGames": 157, "seasonGames": { "2024": 76, "2025": 74, "2026": 7 }, "historyGoals": 33.0, "historyShots": 290.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.11379310344827587, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.11757316005599135, "goalieFactor": 0.9815060369171769, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8476474", "name": "Stefan Noesen", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "LAK", "position": "R", "currentGP": 5, "currentSOG": 1.2, "priorSOG": 1.368421052631579, "currentTOI": 9.5, "currentFiveTOI": 9.083333333333332, "ppShare": 0.04775124930594114, "rate": 1.1619921660331547, "fifty": 1.1218463060094344, "inputs": { "Player": "Stefan Noesen", "Player_ID": "8476474", "Team": "NJD", "Opponent": "LAK", "Position": "R", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.0496349667151372, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 0.9232559775087208, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 5, "Prior_GP": 38, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 7.926605504587156, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.0700181923059855, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 14.583333333333334, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 9.323728070175438, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 9.083333333333332, "Current_PP_Share": 0.04775124930594114, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.3908188893590003, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 86.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1801.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 2, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.972354497354498, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.7491923161150791, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.2374361392406923, "Other_State_SOG": 0.0, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9908219918860978, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.368421052631579, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-jersey-devils/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:43.495164+00:00", "priorGP": 38, "currentTotalSOG": 6.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.2866666666666667, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.20 SOG/game in 5 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 5 games. 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MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020191", "date": "20251101", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 13.8 }, { "gameId": "2024020602", "date": "20250101", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 18.0 }, { "gameId": "2024020461", "date": "20241212", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 16.666666666666668 } ], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. 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Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476341", "goalieName": "Anton Forsberg", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8476474", "goals": 0, "sog": 8, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 3, "recordedAttempts": 9, "log": [ { "gameId": "2024020737", "date": "20250119", "season": 2024, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2024020062", "date": "20241017", "season": 2024, "goals": 0, "sog": 6, "attempts": 7 }, { "gameId": "2023021077", "date": "20240317", "season": 2023, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476341", "goalieName": "Anton Forsberg", "opponent": "NJD", "games": 5, "availableGames": 11, "shotsAgainst": 115.0, "goalsAgainst": 15.0, "savePct": 0.8695652173913043, "gaa": 4.18280402788536, "gsax": -4.362, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021050", "date": "20260314", "goalieTeam": "LAK", "opponent": "NJD", "shotsAgainst": 27.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3466.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.948 }, { "gameId": "2024020737", "date": "20250119", "goalieTeam": "OTT", "opponent": "NJD", "shotsAgainst": 26.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.295 }, { "gameId": "2024020062", "date": "20241017", "goalieTeam": "OTT", "opponent": "NJD", "shotsAgainst": 35.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3470.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.298 }, { "gameId": "2023021224", "date": "20240406", "goalieTeam": "OTT", "opponent": "NJD", "shotsAgainst": 9.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 994.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 0.874 }, { "gameId": "2022020274", "date": "20221119", "goalieTeam": "OTT", "opponent": "NJD", "shotsAgainst": 18.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 1380.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.223 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.0730954676952749, "adjustedSOG": 1.0730954676952749, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.0730954676952749, "adjustedSOG": 1.0730954676952749, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.12028512018664052, "goalHistoryGoals": 26.0, "goalHistoryShots": 223.0, "goalExpected": 0.12907741730346536, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.12907741730346536, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.12109407961467522, "goalProbability": 0.12109407961467522, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12852093820284888, "modelSOG": 1.0730954676952749, "historyGames": 121, "seasonGames": { "2024": 78, "2025": 38, "2026": 5 }, "historyGoals": 26.0, "historyShots": 223.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.11659192825112108, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.12028512018664052, "goalieFactor": 1.0218332511814823, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8476958", "name": "Jaccob Slavin", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "STL", "position": "D", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 1.9090909090909092, "priorSOG": 1.6153846153846154, "currentTOI": 20.89242424242424, "currentFiveTOI": 16.581818181818182, "ppShare": 0.004300047778308648, "rate": 1.5835817063120468, "fifty": 1.669890483489112, "inputs": { "Player": "Jaccob Slavin", "Player_ID": "8476958", "Team": "CAR", "Opponent": "STL", "Position": "D", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.6042665504933498, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.5394329493782097, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 11, "Prior_GP": 39, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 6.25, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.071550381849188, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 17.475728155339805, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 16.79458041958042, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 16.581818181818182, "Current_PP_Share": 0.004300047778308648, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.019923650382632687, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 18.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 4186.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 7, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 6.0017676767676775, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.0539386576959981, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.025807887764409506, "Other_State_SOG": 0.1104895104895105, "Environment_Proxy": 1.00049372648272, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.6153846153846154, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:43.514736+00:00", "priorGP": 39, "currentTotalSOG": 21.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.02727272727272727, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.91 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. 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Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480981", "goalieName": "Joel Hofer", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8476958", "goals": 0, "sog": 4, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 3, "recordedAttempts": 7, "log": [ { "gameId": "2024020284", "date": "20241117", "season": 2024, "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 2 }, { "gameId": "2024020084", "date": "20241019", "season": 2024, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2 }, { "gameId": "2021020216", "date": "20211113", "season": 2021, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 3 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480981", "goalieName": "Joel Hofer", "opponent": "CAR", "games": 4, "availableGames": 4, "shotsAgainst": 121.0, "goalsAgainst": 10.0, "savePct": 0.9173553719008265, "gaa": 2.5300442757748263, "gsax": 1.0949999999999998, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020730", "date": "20260113", "goalieTeam": "STL", "opponent": "CAR", "shotsAgainst": 33.0, "goalsAgainst": 0.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.698 }, { "gameId": "2024020284", "date": "20241117", "goalieTeam": "STL", "opponent": "CAR", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.293 }, { "gameId": "2024020084", "date": "20241019", "goalieTeam": "STL", "opponent": "CAR", "shotsAgainst": 40.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.792 }, { "gameId": "2021020216", "date": "20211113", "goalieTeam": "STL", "opponent": "CAR", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3429.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.312 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.9058637981235844, "adjustedSOG": 1.9058637981235844, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.944758977677127, "adjustedSOG": 1.9058637981235844, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.04345916362925849, "goalHistoryGoals": 7.0, "goalHistoryShots": 194.0, "goalExpected": 0.08451759863033972, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.08270359746356262, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.08104451712331662, "goalProbability": 0.07937601793295335, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.16684991903632707 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05776994107001995, "modelSOG": 1.9058637981235844, "historyGames": 130, "seasonGames": { "2024": 80, "2025": 39, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 7.0, "historyShots": 194.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.03608247422680412, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.04345916362925849, "goalieFactor": 0.9785370006226618, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 43.71922288742863, "btb": { "id": "8476958", "name": "Jaccob Slavin", "score": 43.71922288742863, "components": { "Goal model": 29.767441860465116, "SOG model": 73.02325581395348, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 14.418604651162791, "Goalie": 66.02941176470588, "Team H2H": 41.534444667603935, "Goalie H2H": 48.396033829104695 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 3, "goalieH2HShots": 4, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 296 } }, { "id": "8475167", "name": "Victor Hedman", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "UTA", "position": "D", "currentGP": 9, "currentSOG": 1.4444444444444444, "priorSOG": 1.5151515151515151, "currentTOI": 14.435185185185183, "currentFiveTOI": 11.457407407407407, "ppShare": 0.011239782016348773, "rate": 1.0517391716476776, "fifty": 1.0886498594651037, "inputs": { "Player": "Victor Hedman", "Player_ID": "8475167", "Team": "TBL", "Opponent": "UTA", "Position": "D", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.0512728548678443, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 0.8866515866239619, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 9, "Prior_GP": 33, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 6.400517213512203, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.801063132600306, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 11.667913238593867, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 12.181700336700334, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 11.457407407407407, "Current_PP_Share": 0.011239782016348773, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.3998847405202725, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 33.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2936.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 5, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.626018518518518, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.5913590723021445, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.051995439751740834, "Other_State_SOG": 0.21313131313131314, "Environment_Proxy": 0.85, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.5151515151515151, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:43.554928+00:00", "priorGP": 33.0, "currentTotalSOG": 13.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.061111111111111116, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.44 SOG/game in 9 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 9 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.671, "currentIXG": 0.07455555555555556, "priorTOI": 18.86717171717172, "priorPPTOI": 2.0257575757575754, "deploymentChange": -4.431986531986535, "ppTOIChange": -1.9646464646464643, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020194", "date": "20251102", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 20.133333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024021145", "date": "20250327", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 18.2 }, { "gameId": "2024021111", "date": "20250322", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 26.033333333333335 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 3, "h2hSOG": 1.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "UTA", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 225.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 22.5, "mostAllowedRank": 30, "fiveSogAllowed60": 21.06050814598143, "pkSogAllowed60": 53.47313237221494, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 35.6, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 58.0, "C": 87.0, "R": 52.0, "L": 28.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 8.7, "L": 2.8, "R": 5.2, "D": 5.8 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 22.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 20.25, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 22.5, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.8, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8478872", "team": "UTA", "name": "Karel Vejmelka", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 8, "savePct": 0.8793103448275862, "gaa": 2.8927833473635878, "gsax": -2.0919999999999987, "goalsAllowed": 21.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 18.908, "shotsAgainst": 174.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0222659253207917, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Likely starter per Daily Faceoff; no Model Goal adjustment until confirmed.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T17:11:59.953Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.06906439805621757, "goalHistoryGoals": 18.0, "goalHistoryShots": 244.0, "goalExpected": 0.08535592217547866, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.08535592217547866, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.0818145763170711, "goalProbability": 0.0818145763170711, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 9, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.2358888888888888, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 6.400517213512203, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 11.457407407407407, "Current_PP_Share": 0.011239782016348773, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.626018518518518, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.051995439751740834, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.2222222222222222, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9114659361351877, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.05376529706562, "Position_Factor": 0.9944572953736655, "Input_GP": 9, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 33.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2936.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.801063132600306, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 11.667913238593867, "Prior_5v5_Min": 13.87171717171717, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.3998847405202725, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.8947508896797154, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.34640522875817, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.8654188833311953, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.05376529706562, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 6.005560704355885, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 1.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020194", "date": "20251102", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 20.133333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024021145", "date": "20250327", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 18.2 }, { "gameId": "2024021111", "date": "20250322", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 26.033333333333335 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "NHL.com projected lineup", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 14, "priorAttempts": 55, "fitPct": -4.48603722229349, "index": 95.51396277770651, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 59.74025974025974, "opponentDeltaPct": -5.689070301576365, "currentAttempts": 8, "priorAttempts": 35 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 5.74025974025974, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.7770704564453013, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 1.4545454545454546, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.327351233427365, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 30.155844155844157, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.9245535697431251, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 12 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.7272727272727273, "opponentDeltaPct": -16.04971857561877, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 2.181818181818182, "opponentDeltaPct": -20.1847447341527, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 22, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -4.48603722229349, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478872", "goalieName": "Karel Vejmelka", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8475167", "goals": 1, "sog": 7, "shootingPct": 0.14285714285714285, "gamesWithAttempts": 5, "recordedAttempts": 12, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020194", "date": "20251102", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2 }, { "gameId": "2024021145", "date": "20250327", "season": 2024, "goals": 1, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2 }, { "gameId": "2024021111", "date": "20250322", "season": 2024, "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2022020582", "date": "20221231", "season": 2022, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 4 }, { "gameId": "2021020519", "date": "20220211", "season": 2021, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 3 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478872", "goalieName": "Karel Vejmelka", "opponent": "TBL", "games": 5, "availableGames": 6, "shotsAgainst": 128.0, "goalsAgainst": 18.0, "savePct": 0.859375, "gaa": 4.0538004379105415, "gsax": -5.162, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020825", "date": "20260126", "goalieTeam": "UTA", "opponent": "TBL", "shotsAgainst": 29.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.389 }, { "gameId": "2025020194", "date": "20251102", "goalieTeam": "UTA", "opponent": "TBL", "shotsAgainst": 25.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3527.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.366 }, { "gameId": "2024021145", "date": "20250327", "goalieTeam": "UTA", "opponent": "TBL", "shotsAgainst": 12.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 1754.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.834 }, { "gameId": "2024021111", "date": "20250322", "goalieTeam": "UTA", "opponent": "TBL", "shotsAgainst": 27.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.77 }, { "gameId": "2022020582", "date": "20221231", "goalieTeam": "ARI", "opponent": "TBL", "shotsAgainst": 35.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3504.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.479 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.2358888888888888, "adjustedSOG": 1.2358888888888888, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.261111111111111, "adjustedSOG": 1.2358888888888888, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.06906439805621757, "goalHistoryGoals": 18.0, "goalHistoryShots": 244.0, "goalExpected": 0.0870978797708966, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.0870978797708966, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.08341262412000837, "goalProbability": 0.08341262412000837, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05758152931338846, "modelSOG": 1.2358888888888888, "historyGames": 121, "seasonGames": { "2024": 79, "2025": 33, "2026": 9 }, "historyGoals": 18.0, "historyShots": 244.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.07377049180327869, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.06906439805621757, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 43.94039384017525, "btb": { "id": "8475167", "name": "Victor Hedman", "score": 43.94039384017525, "components": { "Goal model": 30.930232558139537, "SOG model": 43.02325581395349, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 18.6046511627907, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 58.28479614380397, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Likely", "h2hGames": 3, "goalieH2HShots": 7, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 288 } }, { "id": "8480434", "name": "Sean Durzi", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "OTT", "position": "D", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 0.5454545454545454, "priorSOG": 1.4, "currentTOI": 20.35151515151515, "currentFiveTOI": 16.595454545454547, "ppShare": 0.25380228136882127, "rate": 1.2463880943562424, "fifty": 0.9966706065539302, "inputs": { "Player": "Sean Durzi", "Player_ID": "8480434", "Team": "NYR", "Opponent": "OTT", "Position": "D", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.153631034023967, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 0.9377473340231721, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 11, "Prior_GP": 60, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 1.6433853738701725, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.9218236805307143, "Current_PP_SOG60": 4.49438202247191, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 10.283454185893211, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 16.741984848484847, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 16.595454545454547, "Current_PP_Share": 0.25380228136882127, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.26545428161704454, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 801.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3156.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 7, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.145909090909091, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 1.3240315071906665, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 1.3060434669892844, "Other_State_SOG": 0.06, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9343896732646498, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.4, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-york-rangers/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:43.574055+00:00", "priorGP": 60, "currentTotalSOG": 6.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.2136363636363636, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.55 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.404, "currentIXG": 0.036727272727272726, "priorTOI": 19.261111111111113, "priorPPTOI": 1.2641666666666667, "deploymentChange": 1.0904040404040387, "ppTOIChange": -0.050530303030303036, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020680", "date": "20260107", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 23.2 } ], "h2hGames": 1, "h2hAvailableGames": 1, "h2hSOG": 2.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "OTT", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 255.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 25.5, "mostAllowedRank": 25, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.477120373069077, "pkSogAllowed60": 46.82395644283122, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 38.7, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 67.0, "C": 98.0, "R": 48.0, "L": 42.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.8, "L": 4.2, "R": 4.8, "D": 6.7 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 24.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 22.6, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 25.5, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.7, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8477992", "team": "OTT", "name": "Jonas Johansson", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 0, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "goalsAllowed": null, "xGoalsAgainst": null, "shotsAgainst": null, "scenarioFactor": 1, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; no matching goalie statistics in this snapshot, so the goalie factor remains neutral.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T15:15:50.280Z", "idResolution": "Exact goalie name mapped to one unique MoneyPuck player ID" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.0731835322611695, "goalHistoryGoals": 11.0, "goalHistoryShots": 129.0, "goalExpected": 0.03812603190547594, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.03812603190547594, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.03740838400960253, "goalProbability": 0.03740838400960253, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 0.5209646313519806, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 1.6433853738701725, "Current_PP_SOG60": 4.49438202247191, "Current_5v5_Min": 16.595454545454547, "Current_PP_Share": 0.25380228136882127, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.145909090909091, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.3060434669892844, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9604171757553249, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9920036605974645, "Position_Factor": 0.9967592108017584, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 801.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3156.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.9218236805307143, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 10.283454185893211, "Prior_5v5_Min": 17.08388888888889, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.26545428161704454, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9560053380782918, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.34640522875817, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9560053380782918, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9920036605974645, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 1.6433853738701725, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 4.49438202247191, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 2.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020680", "date": "20260107", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 23.2 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 118, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 18, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477992", "goalieName": "Jonas Johansson", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8480434", "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 2, "log": [ { "gameId": "2023020334", "date": "20231128", "season": 2023, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477992", "goalieName": "Jonas Johansson", "opponent": "NYR", "games": 4, "availableGames": 4, "shotsAgainst": 43.0, "goalsAgainst": 6.0, "savePct": 0.8604651162790697, "gaa": 2.615328732292045, "gsax": -1.567, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020391", "date": "20251129", "goalieTeam": "TBL", "opponent": "NYR", "shotsAgainst": 13.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.688 }, { "gameId": "2025020265", "date": "20251112", "goalieTeam": "TBL", "opponent": "NYR", "shotsAgainst": 7.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 993.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 0.748 }, { "gameId": "2024021310", "date": "20250417", "goalieTeam": "TBL", "opponent": "NYR", "shotsAgainst": 22.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3573.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.983 }, { "gameId": "2021020399", "date": "20211208", "goalieTeam": "COL", "opponent": "NYR", "shotsAgainst": 1.0, "goalsAgainst": 0.0, "seconds": 93.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 0.014 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.5209646313519806, "adjustedSOG": 0.5209646313519806, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.5315965626040619, "adjustedSOG": 0.5209646313519806, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.0731835322611695, "goalHistoryGoals": 11.0, "goalHistoryShots": 129.0, "goalExpected": 0.03890411418926117, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.03890411418926117, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.03815706818580616, "goalProbability": 0.03815706818580616, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05759028887807816, "modelSOG": 0.5209646313519806, "historyGames": 101, "seasonGames": { "2024": 30, "2025": 60, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 11.0, "historyShots": 129.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.08527131782945736, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.0731835322611695, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 35.42258734040263, "btb": { "id": "8480434", "name": "Sean Durzi", "score": 35.42258734040263, "components": { "Goal model": 10.0, "SOG model": 7.441860465116279, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 2.6744186046511627, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 51.887016377878, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 1, "goalieH2HShots": 2, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 404 } }, { "id": "8478463", "name": "Anthony Beauvillier", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "position": "R", "currentGP": 9, "currentSOG": 1.0, "priorSOG": 1.8902439024390243, "currentTOI": 11.857407407407408, "currentFiveTOI": 11.072222222222223, "ppShare": 0.03138657131505761, "rate": 1.5257019101032967, "fifty": 1.314155759772609, "inputs": { "Player": "Anthony Beauvillier", "Player_ID": "8478463", "Team": "WSH", "Opponent": "BUF", "Position": "R", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.3642022600035566, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.2366367262449636, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 9, "Prior_GP": 82, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.4189663823381835, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 7.153475912215369, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 15.286624203821656, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 11.893177506775068, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 11.072222222222223, "Current_PP_Share": 0.03138657131505761, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.1093853056750304, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 79.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2517.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 5, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.500555555555556, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.2465682990768464, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.14125700790182316, "Other_State_SOG": 0.09878048780487805, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9496227273390297, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.8902439024390243, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:43.591432+00:00", "priorGP": 82, "currentTotalSOG": 9.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.14629629629629629, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.00 SOG/game in 9 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 9 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.416, "currentIXG": 0.15733333333333333, "priorTOI": 15.797154471544713, "priorPPTOI": 0.47865853658536583, "deploymentChange": -3.939747064137306, "ppTOIChange": -0.3323622402890696, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021213", "date": "20260404", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 15.733333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025021028", "date": "20260312", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 14.116666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020186", "date": "20251101", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 17.45 }, { "gameId": "2024021171", "date": "20250330", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 13.283333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020720", "date": "20250117", "team": "PIT", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 13.616666666666667 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 6, "h2hSOG": 1.6, "opponentDefense": { "team": "BUF", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 257.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 25.7, "mostAllowedRank": 24, "fiveSogAllowed60": 21.645723550871505, "pkSogAllowed60": 62.21198156682028, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 40.1, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 61.0, "L": 55.0, "D": 65.0, "C": 76.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.6, "L": 5.5, "R": 6.1, "D": 6.5 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 30.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.25, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 25.7, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.1, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8480045", "team": "BUF", "name": "Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 8, "savePct": 0.8629441624365483, "gaa": 3.5349310833909153, "gsax": -3.6580000000000013, "goalsAllowed": 27.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 23.342, "shotsAgainst": 197.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.035448902624297, "factor": 1.035448902624297, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T15:43:35.500Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.10619360658374866, "goalHistoryGoals": 31.0, "goalHistoryShots": 313.0, "goalExpected": 0.11327318035599854, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.11728859029638276, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.10709329777550632, "goalProbability": 0.11067149545043832, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.35781976749320044, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 9, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.0666666666666664, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.4189663823381835, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 11.072222222222223, "Current_PP_Share": 0.03138657131505761, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.500555555555556, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.14125700790182316, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.922717716387106, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.1429256259066152, "Position_Factor": 1.0251297016861218, "Input_GP": 9, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 79.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2517.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 7.153475912215369, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 15.286624203821656, "Prior_5v5_Min": 13.808739837398374, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.1093853056750304, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0666666666666664, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.382352941176471, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0666666666666664, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.1429256259066152, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.53101594008066, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 1.6666666666666667 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 2.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021213", "date": "20260404", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 15.733333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025021028", "date": "20260312", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 14.116666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020186", "date": "20251101", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 17.45 }, { "gameId": "2024021171", "date": "20250330", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 13.283333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020720", "date": "20250117", "team": "PIT", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 13.616666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020057", "date": "20241016", "team": "PIT", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 13.15 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "NHL.com October 20 game-specific projected lineup", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 205, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 16, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480045", "goalieName": "Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8478463", "goals": 1, "sog": 13, "shootingPct": 0.07692307692307693, "gamesWithAttempts": 5, "recordedAttempts": 21, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021028", "date": "20260312", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2 }, { "gameId": "2025020186", "date": "20251101", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 4, "attempts": 4 }, { "gameId": "2024020720", "date": "20250117", "season": 2024, "goals": 1, "sog": 2, "attempts": 4 }, { "gameId": "2024020057", "date": "20241016", "season": 2024, "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 6 }, { "gameId": "2022020722", "date": "20230119", "season": 2022, "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 5 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480045", "goalieName": "Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen", "opponent": "WSH", "games": 5, "availableGames": 10, "shotsAgainst": 138.0, "goalsAgainst": 13.0, "savePct": 0.9057971014492754, "gaa": 2.5547246028713357, "gsax": 1.2270000000000003, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021028", "date": "20260312", "goalieTeam": "BUF", "opponent": "WSH", "shotsAgainst": 22.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3513.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.736 }, { "gameId": "2025020186", "date": "20251101", "goalieTeam": "BUF", "opponent": "WSH", "shotsAgainst": 34.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3868.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.692 }, { "gameId": "2024020637", "date": "20250106", "goalieTeam": "BUF", "opponent": "WSH", "shotsAgainst": 28.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3900.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.29 }, { "gameId": "2024020480", "date": "20241214", "goalieTeam": "BUF", "opponent": "WSH", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3438.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.234 }, { "gameId": "2023021255", "date": "20240411", "goalieTeam": "BUF", "opponent": "WSH", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.275 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.0666666666666664, "adjustedSOG": 1.0666666666666664, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.0666666666666664, "adjustedSOG": 1.0666666666666664, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. 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Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478916", "goalieName": "Joey Daccord", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8476874", "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 3, "recordedAttempts": 5, "log": [ { "gameId": "2024021243", "date": "20250408", "season": 2024, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2 }, { "gameId": "2023020870", "date": "20240219", "season": 2023, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2 }, { "gameId": "2023020091", "date": "20231024", "season": 2023, "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 1 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478916", "goalieName": "Joey Daccord", "opponent": "MIN", "games": 5, "availableGames": 6, "shotsAgainst": 123.0, "goalsAgainst": 19.0, "savePct": 0.8455284552845528, "gaa": 4.3387250237868695, "gsax": -6.912000000000001, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021240", "date": "20260407", "goalieTeam": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 28.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3488.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.569 }, { "gameId": "2024020982", "date": "20250304", "goalieTeam": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 20.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3463.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.635 }, { "gameId": "2024020033", "date": "20241012", "goalieTeam": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 38.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3885.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.839 }, { "gameId": "2023021307", "date": "20240418", "goalieTeam": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.121 }, { "gameId": "2023020913", "date": "20240224", "goalieTeam": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 13.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 1329.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.924 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.5050473013048635, "adjustedSOG": 0.5050473013048635, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.5153543890865955, "adjustedSOG": 0.5050473013048635, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.04653668627178561, "goalHistoryGoals": 4.0, "goalHistoryShots": 110.0, "goalExpected": 0.023982885523710626, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.023982885523710626, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.023697581480478937, "goalProbability": 0.023697581480478937, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05772704117074978, "modelSOG": 0.5050473013048635, "historyGames": 126, "seasonGames": { "2024": 77, "2025": 43, "2026": 6 }, "historyGoals": 4.0, "historyShots": 110.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.03636363636363636, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.04653668627178561, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8478864", "name": "Kirill Kaprizov", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "SEA", "position": "L", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 3.4, "priorSOG": 3.448717948717949, "currentTOI": 21.488333333333333, "currentFiveTOI": 17.078333333333333, "ppShare": 0.7310543657331137, "rate": 3.6113488059529093, "fifty": 3.6681426592070747, "inputs": { "Player": "Kirill Kaprizov", "Player_ID": "8478864", "Team": "MIN", "Opponent": "SEA", "Position": "L", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 3.504863714000029, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 3.200847684453714, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 10, "Prior_GP": 78, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 7.026446764906802, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 7.137634914930792, "Current_PP_SOG60": 18.253521126760564, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 14.632470803755439, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 17.127846153846153, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 17.078333333333333, "Current_PP_Share": 0.7310543657331137, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.7074153423396458, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1775.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2428.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 5, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 3.9491666666666667, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 2.8590491997089433, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 2.8870555326743546, "Other_State_SOG": 0.41923076923076924, "Environment_Proxy": 1.1489692159321772, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 3.448717948717949, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/minnesota-wild/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:43.631851+00:00", "priorGP": 78, "currentTotalSOG": 34.0, "currentPPTOI": 2.958333333333333, "volumeNote": "Observed 3.40 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 7.989, "currentIXG": 0.7988999999999999, "priorTOI": 22.14679487179487, "priorPPTOI": 3.7324786324786325, "deploymentChange": -0.6584615384615375, "ppTOIChange": -0.7741452991452995, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021240", "date": "20260407", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "home", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 20.966666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2025020693", "date": "20260108", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 24.733333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020465", "date": "20251208", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 9.0, "toi": 23.133333333333333 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 4.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "SEA", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 311.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 31.1, "mostAllowedRank": 3, "fiveSogAllowed60": 29.01212141229316, "pkSogAllowed60": 57.63738641280831, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 48.5, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 101.0, "R": 65.0, "L": 58.0, "D": 87.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.1, "L": 5.8, "R": 6.5, "D": 8.7 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 31.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 3, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 28.666666666666668, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 31.1, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.8, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8478916", "team": "SEA", "name": "Joey Daccord", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 5, "savePct": 0.881578947368421, "gaa": 3.8855909336211547, "gsax": -2.3970000000000002, "goalsAllowed": 18.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 15.603, "shotsAgainst": 152.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.024854248577667, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Likely starter per Daily Faceoff; no Model Goal adjustment until confirmed.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T20:31:39.541Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.17122037941529986, "goalHistoryGoals": 81.0, "goalHistoryShots": 448.0, "goalExpected": 0.6048963786645765, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.6048963786645765, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.45386898546715565, "goalProbability": 0.45386898546715565, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 3.5328526938804594, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 7.026446764906802, "Current_PP_SOG60": 18.253521126760564, "Current_5v5_Min": 17.078333333333333, "Current_PP_Share": 0.7310543657331137, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 3.9491666666666667, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 2.8870555326743546, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.5, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0689197555315912, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0920680305430235, "Position_Factor": 1.0004237252952324, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1775.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2428.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 7.137634914930792, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 14.632470803755439, "Prior_5v5_Min": 17.24337606837607, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.7074153423396458, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0728857327307941, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.062091503267974, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0728857327307941, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0920680305430235, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 7.026446764906802, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 18.253521126760564, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 4.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 4.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021240", "date": "20260407", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "home", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 20.966666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2025020693", "date": "20260108", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 24.733333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020465", "date": "20251208", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 9.0, "toi": 23.133333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020033", "date": "20241012", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 11.0, "toi": 24.266666666666666 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 245, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. 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Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478916", "goalieName": "Joey Daccord", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8478864", "goals": 4, "sog": 21, "shootingPct": 0.19047619047619047, "gamesWithAttempts": 5, "recordedAttempts": 30, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021240", "date": "20260407", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 5, "attempts": 7 }, { "gameId": "2024020033", "date": "20241012", "season": 2024, "goals": 1, "sog": 4, "attempts": 8 }, { "gameId": "2023021307", "date": "20240418", "season": 2023, "goals": 1, "sog": 6, "attempts": 6 }, { "gameId": "2023020913", "date": "20240224", "season": 2023, "goals": 2, "sog": 4, "attempts": 6 }, { "gameId": "2023020426", "date": "20231210", "season": 2023, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 3 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478916", "goalieName": "Joey Daccord", "opponent": "MIN", "games": 5, "availableGames": 6, "shotsAgainst": 123.0, "goalsAgainst": 19.0, "savePct": 0.8455284552845528, "gaa": 4.3387250237868695, "gsax": -6.912000000000001, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021240", "date": "20260407", "goalieTeam": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 28.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3488.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.569 }, { "gameId": "2024020982", "date": "20250304", "goalieTeam": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 20.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3463.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.635 }, { "gameId": "2024020033", "date": "20241012", "goalieTeam": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 38.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3885.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.839 }, { "gameId": "2023021307", "date": "20240418", "goalieTeam": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.121 }, { "gameId": "2023020913", "date": "20240224", "goalieTeam": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 13.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 1329.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.924 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 3.5328526938804594, "adjustedSOG": 3.5328526938804594, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 3.6049517284494486, "adjustedSOG": 3.5328526938804594, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.17122037941529986, "goalHistoryGoals": 81.0, "goalHistoryShots": 448.0, "goalExpected": 0.6172412027189556, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.6172412027189556, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.46056943373223735, "goalProbability": 0.46056943373223735, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12828767919584327, "modelSOG": 3.5328526938804594, "historyGames": 129, "seasonGames": { "2024": 41, "2025": 78, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 81.0, "historyShots": 448.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.18080357142857142, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.17122037941529986, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 67.73138277109375, "btb": { "id": "8478864", "name": "Kirill Kaprizov", "score": 67.73138277109375, "components": { "Goal model": 99.30232558139535, "SOG model": 97.90697674418605, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 100.0, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 53.17045878403581, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Likely", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": 21, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 14 } }, { "id": "8476885", "name": "Jacob Trouba", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "BOS", "position": "D", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 1.5, "priorSOG": 2.049382716049383, "currentTOI": 21.813333333333333, "currentFiveTOI": 17.505000000000003, "ppShare": 0.12695972948047957, "rate": 1.988818845614759, "fifty": 1.8728136199796503, "inputs": { "Player": "Jacob Trouba", "Player_ID": "8476885", "Team": "SJS", "Opponent": "BOS", "Position": "D", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.9556622028273665, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.8826059847474212, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 10, "Prior_GP": 81, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.7986289631533845, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.5997582838150874, "Current_PP_SOG60": 8.716707021791768, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 12.398246712586099, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 17.76961111111111, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 17.505000000000003, "Current_PP_Share": 0.12695972948047957, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.12550779025437578, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 413.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3253.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 5, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.0425, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.6379980148410297, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.6401944359053182, "Other_State_SOG": 0.16666666666666666, "Environment_Proxy": 1.0253180054689388, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 2.049382716049383, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:43.654052+00:00", "priorGP": 81, "currentTotalSOG": 15.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.6883333333333334, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.50 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.615, "currentIXG": 0.0615, "priorTOI": 22.82716049382716, "priorPPTOI": 0.657201646090535, "deploymentChange": -1.013827160493829, "ppTOIChange": 0.031131687242798356, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2026020105", "date": "20261013", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 21.233333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020318", "date": "20251119", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 19.733333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020111", "date": "20251023", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 28.566666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024021142", "date": "20250326", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 21.4 }, { "gameId": "2024020899", "date": "20250222", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 19.166666666666668 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 5, "h2hSOG": 1.8, "opponentDefense": { "team": "BOS", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 280.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 28.0, "mostAllowedRank": 11, "fiveSogAllowed60": 26.539776154413243, "pkSogAllowed60": 48.89206576125804, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 42.4, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 68.0, "R": 50.0, "L": 68.0, "C": 94.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.4, "L": 6.8, "R": 5.0, "D": 6.8 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 26.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 25.0, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 28.0, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.8, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8480280", "team": "BOS", "name": "Jeremy Swayman", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 8, "savePct": 0.9279279279279279, "gaa": 1.976189659313137, "gsax": 7.695, "goalsAllowed": 16.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 23.695, "shotsAgainst": 222.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9412127550171275, "factor": 0.9412127550171275, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T14:59:19.712Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.045353398544796024, "goalHistoryGoals": 12.0, "goalHistoryShots": 292.0, "goalExpected": 0.0641007422207121, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.060332436184199145, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.06208949241621809, "goalProbability": 0.05854849099047974, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.35410014257383493, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.4133613858595213, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.7986289631533845, "Current_PP_SOG60": 8.716707021791768, "Current_5v5_Min": 17.505000000000003, "Current_PP_Share": 0.12695972948047957, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.0425, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.6401944359053182, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0194233133624404, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.013580746919003, "Position_Factor": 0.9875428952719878, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 413.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3253.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.5997582838150874, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 12.398246712586099, "Prior_5v5_Min": 18.387037037037036, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.12550779025437578, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9628113879003559, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.34640522875817, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9628113879003559, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.013580746919003, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 4.7986289631533845, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 8.716707021791768, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.0 }, { "season": "2026", "label": "2026–27", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 3.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2026020105", "date": "20261013", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 21.233333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020318", "date": "20251119", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 19.733333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020111", "date": "20251023", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 28.566666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024021142", "date": "20250326", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 21.4 }, { "gameId": "2024020899", "date": "20250222", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 19.166666666666668 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Reviewed October22 projected lineup and coach reports", "ppAssignmentSourceDate": "2026-10-13T18:05:17.352Z", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 201, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 15, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480280", "goalieName": "Jeremy Swayman", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8476885", "goals": 1, "sog": 14, "shootingPct": 0.07142857142857142, "gamesWithAttempts": 5, "recordedAttempts": 16, "log": [ { "gameId": "2026020105", "date": "20261013", "season": 2026, "goals": 1, "sog": 3, "attempts": 3 }, { "gameId": "2023020462", "date": "20231216", "season": 2023, "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2022020718", "date": "20230119", "season": 2022, "goals": 0, "sog": 4, "attempts": 5 }, { "gameId": "2021021263", "date": "20220215", "season": 2021, "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 3 }, { "gameId": "2021020304", "date": "20211126", "season": 2021, "goals": 0, "sog": 4, "attempts": 4 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480280", "goalieName": "Jeremy Swayman", "opponent": "SJS", "games": 5, "availableGames": 6, "shotsAgainst": 123.0, "goalsAgainst": 9.0, "savePct": 0.926829268292683, "gaa": 2.2632020117351215, "gsax": 2.58, "log": [ { "gameId": "2026020105", "date": "20261013", "goalieTeam": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "shotsAgainst": 38.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.146 }, { "gameId": "2025021027", "date": "20260312", "goalieTeam": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "shotsAgainst": 28.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3406.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.91 }, { "gameId": "2025020351", "date": "20251123", "goalieTeam": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3588.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.577 }, { "gameId": "2023020340", "date": "20231130", "goalieTeam": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "shotsAgainst": 26.0, "goalsAgainst": 0.0, "seconds": 3574.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.886 }, { "gameId": "2022020748", "date": "20230122", "goalieTeam": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "shotsAgainst": 1.0, "goalsAgainst": 0.0, "seconds": 148.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 0.061 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.4133613858595213, "adjustedSOG": 1.4133613858595213, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.4422054957750219, "adjustedSOG": 1.4133613858595213, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.045353398544796024, "goalHistoryGoals": 12.0, "goalHistoryShots": 292.0, "goalExpected": 0.0654089206333797, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.06156371039203995, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.0633156445075424, "goalProbability": 0.059706962606987934, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.3608681900554467 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05778532229560041, "modelSOG": 1.4133613858595213, "historyGames": 168, "seasonGames": { "2024": 77, "2025": 81, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 12.0, "historyShots": 292.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.0410958904109589, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.045353398544796024, "goalieFactor": 0.9412127550171275, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 42.54129859006933, "btb": { "id": "8476885", "name": "Jacob Trouba", "score": 42.54129859006933, "components": { "Goal model": 22.093023255813954, "SOG model": 52.55813953488372, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 13.720930232558139, "Goalie": 34.26470588235294, "Team H2H": 65.79634464751958, "Goalie H2H": 58.267716535433074 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 5, "goalieH2HShots": 14, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 311 } }, { "id": "8478550", "name": "Artemi Panarin", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "NJD", "position": "L", "currentGP": 7, "currentSOG": 3.142857142857143, "priorSOG": 2.871794871794872, "currentTOI": 21.33095238095238, "currentFiveTOI": 15.788095238095238, "ppShare": 0.8274428274428275, "rate": 2.7631845117438187, "fifty": 2.6761737392186182, "inputs": { "Player": "Artemi Panarin", "Player_ID": "8478550", "Team": "LAK", "Opponent": "NJD", "Position": "L", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 2.523525217032875, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 2.4854950424387803, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 7, "Prior_GP": 78, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.886140853566581, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.215053209307119, "Current_PP_SOG60": 15.829145728643216, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 14.76004839360129, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 16.027179487179488, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 15.788095238095238, "Current_PP_Share": 0.8274428274428275, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.7459022928377983, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1592.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1924.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 4, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.575661375661376, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 3.6741676236752827, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 3.7860981860981866, "Other_State_SOG": 0.3972527472527473, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9357862710703578, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 2.871794871794872, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/los-angeles-kings/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:43.675164+00:00", "priorGP": 78, "currentTotalSOG": 22.0, "currentPPTOI": 3.7904761904761908, "volumeNote": "Observed 3.14 SOG/game in 7 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 7 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 2.407, "currentIXG": 0.34385714285714286, "priorTOI": 20.842307692307692, "priorPPTOI": 3.179059829059829, "deploymentChange": 0.4886446886446869, "ppTOIChange": 0.6114163614163619, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021050", "date": "20260314", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 20.333333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2024021209", "date": "20250405", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 20.45 }, { "gameId": "2024020656", "date": "20250109", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 20.4 }, { "gameId": "2024020545", "date": "20241223", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 19.1 }, { "gameId": "2024020393", "date": "20241202", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 11.0, "toi": 16.716666666666665 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 5, "h2hSOG": 2.4, "opponentDefense": { "team": "NJD", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 234.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 26.0, "mostAllowedRank": 22, "fiveSogAllowed60": 24.374647357532442, "pkSogAllowed60": 52.512155591572125, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 37.111111111111114, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "L": 41.0, "D": 63.0, "C": 78.0, "R": 52.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 8.666666666666666, "L": 4.555555555555555, "R": 5.777777777777778, "D": 7.0 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 25.0, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 25.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 26.0, "oppPosSogAllowed": 4.555555555555555, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8474596", "team": "NJD", "name": "Jake Allen", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 6, "savePct": 0.8834355828220859, "gaa": 3.1496062992125986, "gsax": -3.708, "goalsAllowed": 19.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 15.292, "shotsAgainst": 163.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0365218981504722, "factor": 1.0365218981504722, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T17:31:56.013Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.14038339561754665, "goalHistoryGoals": 69.0, "goalHistoryShots": 483.0, "goalExpected": 0.4302933856091246, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.44600851681316295, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.3496817272900949, "goalProbability": 0.3598216802407113, "goalAdjustmentPP": 1.0139952950616427, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 7, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 3.065130200877844, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.886140853566581, "Current_PP_SOG60": 15.829145728643216, "Current_5v5_Min": 15.788095238095238, "Current_PP_Share": 0.8274428274428275, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.575661375661376, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 3.7860981860981866, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.8571428571428571, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9778442581785296, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0469775686735434, "Position_Factor": 0.9932135921568832, "Input_GP": 7, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1592.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1924.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.215053209307119, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 14.76004839360129, "Prior_5v5_Min": 16.585042735042737, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.7459022928377983, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9526009989466888, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.062091503267974, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9526009989466888, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0469775686735434, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 4.886140853566581, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 15.829145728643216, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 4, "sogPerGame": 2.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 2.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021050", "date": "20260314", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 20.333333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2024021209", "date": "20250405", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 20.45 }, { "gameId": "2024020656", "date": "20250109", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 20.4 }, { "gameId": "2024020545", "date": "20241223", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 19.1 }, { "gameId": "2024020393", "date": "20241202", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 11.0, "toi": 16.716666666666665 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "ppAssignmentSourceDate": "2026-10-11T01:38:00.435Z", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 215, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 100, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8474596", "goalieName": "Jake Allen", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8478550", "goals": 1, "sog": 2, "shootingPct": 0.5, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 2, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021050", "date": "20260314", "season": 2025, "goals": 1, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8474596", "goalieName": "Jake Allen", "opponent": "LAK", "games": 5, "availableGames": 17, "shotsAgainst": 151.0, "goalsAgainst": 16.0, "savePct": 0.8940397350993378, "gaa": 3.2597623089983023, "gsax": 1.5839999999999996, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021050", "date": "20260314", "goalieTeam": "NJD", "opponent": "LAK", "shotsAgainst": 31.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.558 }, { "gameId": "2024020602", "date": "20250101", "goalieTeam": "NJD", "opponent": "LAK", "shotsAgainst": 23.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3431.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.828 }, { "gameId": "2023020309", "date": "20231125", "goalieTeam": "MTL", "opponent": "LAK", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.339 }, { "gameId": "2022020982", "date": "20230302", "goalieTeam": "MTL", "opponent": "LAK", "shotsAgainst": 33.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3509.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.849 }, { "gameId": "2022020439", "date": "20221210", "goalieTeam": "MTL", "opponent": "LAK", "shotsAgainst": 34.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3530.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.01 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 3.065130200877844, "adjustedSOG": 3.065130200877844, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 3.1276838784467795, "adjustedSOG": 3.065130200877844, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.14038339561754665, "goalHistoryGoals": 69.0, "goalHistoryShots": 483.0, "goalExpected": 0.4390748832746169, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.4390748832746169, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.3553674943705798, "goalProbability": 0.3553674943705798, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.128435196450297, "modelSOG": 3.065130200877844, "historyGames": 165, "seasonGames": { "2024": 80, "2025": 78, "2026": 7 }, "historyGoals": 69.0, "historyShots": 483.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.14285714285714285, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.14038339561754665, "goalieFactor": 1.0365218981504722, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 65.91048615123121, "btb": { "id": "8478550", "name": "Artemi Panarin", "score": 65.91048615123121, "components": { "Goal model": 96.74418604651163, "SOG model": 95.34883720930233, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 86.27906976744185, "Goalie": 55.44117647058823, "Team H2H": 49.956483899042645, "Goalie H2H": 51.28709872804361 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 5, "goalieH2HShots": 2, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 25 } }, { "id": "8479318", "name": "Auston Matthews", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "EDM", "position": "C", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 3.0, "priorSOG": 3.783333333333333, "currentTOI": 21.242424242424242, "currentFiveTOI": 15.3, "ppShare": 0.780318988865483, "rate": 3.6675877692999745, "fifty": 3.3387017027930983, "inputs": { "Player": "Auston Matthews", "Player_ID": "8479318", "Team": "TOR", "Opponent": "EDM", "Position": "C", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 3.4661088386151544, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 3.2357326269798463, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 11, "Prior_GP": 60, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 7.1301247771836005, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 10.096760622633571, "Current_PP_SOG60": 11.106826070188971, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 15.265557086822856, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 15.463999999999999, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 15.3, "Current_PP_Share": 0.780318988865483, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.7042064515189256, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2593.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3323.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 6, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.3053872053872055, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 3.2612672074437046, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 3.359575390782132, "Other_State_SOG": 0.42045454545454547, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9716922687020597, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 3.783333333333333, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/toronto-maple-leafs/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:43.694912+00:00", "priorGP": 60, "currentTotalSOG": 33.0, "currentPPTOI": 3.928787878787879, "volumeNote": "Observed 3.00 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 5.221, "currentIXG": 0.47463636363636363, "priorTOI": 20.80388888888889, "priorPPTOI": 2.620277777777778, "deploymentChange": 0.4385353535353538, "ppTOIChange": 1.3085101010101012, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020891", "date": "20260203", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 21.183333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020499", "date": "20251213", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 17.55 }, { "gameId": "2024020833", "date": "20250201", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "away", "sog": 7.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 8.0, "toi": 19.933333333333334 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 3, "h2hSOG": 3.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "EDM", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 239.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 26.555555555555557, "mostAllowedRank": 18, "fiveSogAllowed60": 25.09786377362711, "pkSogAllowed60": 57.79388917659244, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 40.111111111111114, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 74.0, "C": 64.0, "L": 57.0, "R": 44.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.111111111111111, "L": 6.333333333333333, "R": 4.888888888888889, "D": 8.222222222222221 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 28.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 24.5, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 26.555555555555557, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.111111111111111, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8477465", "team": "EDM", "name": "Tristan Jarry", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 3, "savePct": 0.8732394366197183, "gaa": 2.974387221151198, "gsax": -2.739, "goalsAllowed": 9.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 6.261, "shotsAgainst": 71.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0280169850571896, "factor": 1.0280169850571896, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-23T18:50:20.460Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.13019127545783105, "goalHistoryGoals": 68.0, "goalHistoryShots": 521.0, "goalExpected": 0.348903299494667, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.3586785180230132, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.2945386545597225, "goalProbability": 0.30140109778868385, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.6862443228961346, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 2.679928422758841, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 7.1301247771836005, "Current_PP_SOG60": 11.106826070188971, "Current_5v5_Min": 15.3, "Current_PP_Share": 0.780318988865483, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.3053872053872055, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 3.359575390782132, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.45454545454545453, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9913228889134689, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0841268017286898, "Position_Factor": 0.9730886823103262, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2593.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3323.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 10.096760622633571, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 15.265557086822856, "Prior_5v5_Min": 15.846666666666666, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.7042064515189256, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.8832191281527919, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.437908496732026, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.8832191281527919, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0841268017286898, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 7.1301247771836005, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 11.106826070188971, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 7.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. 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Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477465", "goalieName": "Tristan Jarry", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8479318", "goals": 3, "sog": 30, "shootingPct": 0.1, "gamesWithAttempts": 8, "recordedAttempts": 47, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020499", "date": "20251213", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 5 }, { "gameId": "2025020396", "date": "20251129", "season": 2025, "goals": 1, "sog": 2, "attempts": 3 }, { "gameId": "2025020199", "date": "20251103", "season": 2025, "goals": 1, "sog": 4, "attempts": 5 }, { "gameId": "2024020433", "date": "20241207", "season": 2024, "goals": 0, "sog": 4, "attempts": 6 }, { "gameId": "2023020311", "date": "20231125", "season": 2023, "goals": 0, "sog": 4, "attempts": 8 }, { "gameId": "2021020542", "date": "20220217", "season": 2021, "goals": 1, "sog": 3, "attempts": 3 }, { "gameId": "2021020261", "date": "20211120", "season": 2021, "goals": 0, "sog": 5, "attempts": 8 }, { "gameId": "2021020071", "date": "20211023", "season": 2021, "goals": 0, "sog": 6, "attempts": 9 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477465", "goalieName": "Tristan Jarry", "opponent": "TOR", "games": 5, "availableGames": 13, "shotsAgainst": 102.0, "goalsAgainst": 16.0, "savePct": 0.8431372549019608, "gaa": 4.100811618966254, "gsax": -2.944, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020499", "date": "20251213", "goalieTeam": "EDM", "opponent": "TOR", "shotsAgainst": 28.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.854 }, { "gameId": "2025020396", "date": "20251129", "goalieTeam": "PIT", "opponent": "TOR", "shotsAgainst": 13.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 2107.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.626 }, { "gameId": "2025020199", "date": "20251103", "goalieTeam": "PIT", "opponent": "TOR", "shotsAgainst": 20.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3452.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.296 }, { "gameId": "2024020433", "date": "20241207", "goalieTeam": "PIT", "opponent": "TOR", "shotsAgainst": 27.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3571.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.846 }, { "gameId": "2023020466", "date": "20231216", "goalieTeam": "PIT", "opponent": "TOR", "shotsAgainst": 14.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 1316.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.434 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 2.679928422758841, "adjustedSOG": 2.679928422758841, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 2.734620839549838, "adjustedSOG": 2.679928422758841, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.13019127545783105, "goalHistoryGoals": 68.0, "goalHistoryShots": 521.0, "goalExpected": 0.3560237749945582, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.36599848777858496, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.2995440332995122, "goalProbability": 0.3064961500596639, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.6952116760151728 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12848782059313085, "modelSOG": 2.679928422758841, "historyGames": 138, "seasonGames": { "2024": 67, "2025": 60, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 68.0, "historyShots": 521.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.13051823416506717, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.13019127545783105, "goalieFactor": 1.0280169850571896, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 67.6107725367361, "btb": { "id": "8479318", "name": "Auston Matthews", "score": 67.6107725367361, "components": { "Goal model": 90.93023255813954, "SOG model": 90.69767441860465, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 96.97674418604652, "Goalie": 92.20588235294117, "Team H2H": 45.4207672223338, "Goalie H2H": 41.58464566929134 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 3, "goalieH2HShots": 30, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 15 } }, { "id": "8483787", "name": "Cole Knuble", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "ANA", "position": "R", "currentGP": 2, "currentSOG": 2.5, "priorSOG": null, "currentTOI": 12.066666666666666, "currentFiveTOI": 10.7, "ppShare": 0.016981132075471698, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/philadelphia-flyers/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:43.696333+00:00", "priorGP": null, "currentTotalSOG": 5.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.075, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.50 SOG/game in 2 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 2 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.49, "currentIXG": 0.245, "priorTOI": null, "priorPPTOI": null, "deploymentChange": null, "ppTOIChange": null, "h2hLog": [], "h2hGames": 0, "h2hAvailableGames": 0, "h2hSOG": null, "opponentDefense": { "team": "ANA", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 239.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 26.555555555555557, "mostAllowedRank": 18, "fiveSogAllowed60": 25.834281008587897, "pkSogAllowed60": 38.93928820655967, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 43.333333333333336, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 54.0, "C": 91.0, "R": 57.0, "L": 37.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.11111111111111, "L": 4.111111111111111, "R": 6.333333333333333, "D": 6.0 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 28.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.2, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 26.555555555555557, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.333333333333333, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8480843", "team": "ANA", "name": "Lukas Dostal", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.8813559322033898, "gaa": 3.1634446397188047, "gsax": 2.846, "goalsAllowed": 21.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 23.846, "shotsAgainst": 177.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9815060369171769, "factor": 0.9815060369171769, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T16:38:16.530Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.14141442934088708, "goalHistoryGoals": 2.0, "goalHistoryShots": 5.0, "goalExpected": 0.38312451089765776, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.3760390203369918, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.31827198856529326, "goalProbability": 0.31342445788941464, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.48475306758786196, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": null, "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 2, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 2.70923209663503, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 14.018691588785046, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 10.7, "Current_PP_Share": 0.016981132075471698, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.042592592592593, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.08562893081761007, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0050173142237073, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9117211340641708, "Position_Factor": 1.0244899837906722, "Input_GP": 2, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 9.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 530.0, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0836928386540121, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.382352941176471, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0836928386540121, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9117211340641708, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 4.562737642585551, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff latest reported chart; October 21 final lineup pending", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 1, "playerPriorWeight": 0, "currentSeasonOnly": true }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 1, "playerPriorWeight": 0, "currentSeasonOnly": true }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480843", "goalieName": "Lukas Dostal", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8483787", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480843", "goalieName": "Lukas Dostal", "opponent": "PHI", "games": 5, "availableGames": 5, "shotsAgainst": 155.0, "goalsAgainst": 18.0, "savePct": 0.8838709677419355, "gaa": 3.646595385481148, "gsax": -2.507999999999999, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021082", "date": "20260318", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 28.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3704.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.611 }, { "gameId": "2025020670", "date": "20260106", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 38.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3560.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.171 }, { "gameId": "2024020568", "date": "20241228", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3472.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.781 }, { "gameId": "2023020208", "date": "20231110", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 35.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3450.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.281 }, { "gameId": "2023020117", "date": "20231028", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3584.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.648 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 2.70923209663503, "adjustedSOG": 2.70923209663503, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 2.70923209663503, "adjustedSOG": 2.70923209663503, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.14141442934088708, "goalHistoryGoals": 2.0, "goalHistoryShots": 5.0, "goalExpected": 0.38312451089765776, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.38312451089765776, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.31827198856529326, "goalProbability": 0.31827198856529326, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12848515080793144, "modelSOG": 2.70923209663503, "historyGames": 2, "seasonGames": { "2026": 2 }, "historyGoals": 2.0, "historyShots": 5.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.4, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.14141442934088708, "goalieFactor": 0.9815060369171769, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": 62.182968536251714, "btb": { "id": "8483787", "name": "Cole Knuble", "score": 62.182968536251714, "components": { "Goal model": 94.18604651162791, "SOG model": 91.3953488372093, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 67.90697674418605, "Goalie": 44.85294117647059, "Team H2H": 50.0, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Team H2H unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 0, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 62 } }, { "id": "8482713", "name": "Mackie Samoskevich", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "position": "R", "currentGP": 9, "currentSOG": 1.5555555555555556, "priorSOG": 2.090909090909091, "currentTOI": 15.41851851851852, "currentFiveTOI": 14.472222222222221, "ppShare": 0.16928446771378708, "rate": 2.007070398149319, "fifty": 1.8201145168958037, "inputs": { "Player": "Mackie Samoskevich", "Player_ID": "8482713", "Team": "SEA", "Opponent": "MIN", "Position": "R", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 2.3459170684453414, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 2.216859229251677, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 9, "Prior_GP": 77, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.527831094049904, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 7.8043536683687185, "Current_PP_SOG60": 9.278350515463918, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 13.691187656199066, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 13.754906204906204, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 14.472222222222221, "Current_PP_Share": 0.16928446771378708, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.3896474363893574, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 388.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2292.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 5, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.085, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 1.1969752270391898, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.8608115183246073, "Other_State_SOG": 0.06955266955266955, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9620662188708584, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 2.090909090909091, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/seattle-kraken/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:43.713961+00:00", "priorGP": 77, "currentTotalSOG": 14.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.7185185185185186, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.56 SOG/game in 9 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 9 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.662, "currentIXG": 0.18466666666666665, "priorTOI": 14.46948051948052, "priorPPTOI": 1.991991341991342, "deploymentChange": 0.9490379990379996, "ppTOIChange": -1.2734728234728234, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020817", "date": "20260124", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 10.6 }, { "gameId": "2024020509", "date": "20241218", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 12.583333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020093", "date": "20241022", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 14.2 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 3, "h2hSOG": 0.3333333333333333, "opponentDefense": { "team": "MIN", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 261.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 26.1, "mostAllowedRank": 21, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.40367597004765, "pkSogAllowed60": 45.30289727831431, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 40.4, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 77.0, "C": 114.0, "R": 29.0, "L": 41.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 11.4, "L": 4.1, "R": 2.9, "D": 7.7 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 24.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 28.333333333333332, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 26.1, "oppPosSogAllowed": 2.9, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8482661", "team": "MIN", "name": "Jesper Wallstedt", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 9, "savePct": 0.9152542372881356, "gaa": 2.1979363819525, "gsax": 6.934999999999999, "goalsAllowed": 20.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 26.935, "shotsAgainst": 236.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9495343259526882, "factor": 0.9495343259526882, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T18:37:27.914Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.10855674739789833, "goalHistoryGoals": 31.0, "goalHistoryShots": 304.0, "goalExpected": 0.14918039745971465, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.14165190814726425, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.1385862959624543, "goalProbability": 0.13207667905340403, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.6509616909050275, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 9, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.374215799897877, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.527831094049904, "Current_PP_SOG60": 9.278350515463918, "Current_5v5_Min": 14.472222222222221, "Current_PP_Share": 0.16928446771378708, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.085, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.8608115183246073, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.1111111111111111, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.957587153238364, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9748801923935355, "Position_Factor": 0.95, "Input_GP": 9, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 388.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2292.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 7.8043536683687185, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 13.691187656199066, "Prior_5v5_Min": 12.081168831168831, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.3896474363893574, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.85, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.382352941176471, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9748801923935355, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.527831094049904, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 9.278350515463918, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 0.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020817", "date": "20260124", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 10.6 }, { "gameId": "2024020509", "date": "20241218", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 12.583333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020093", "date": "20241022", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 14.2 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 194, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 50, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482661", "goalieName": "Jesper Wallstedt", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8482713", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482661", "goalieName": "Jesper Wallstedt", "opponent": "SEA", "games": 2, "availableGames": 2, "shotsAgainst": 55.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "savePct": 0.9272727272727272, "gaa": 1.9647973802701597, "gsax": 2.874, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021240", "date": "20260407", "goalieTeam": "MIN", "opponent": "SEA", "shotsAgainst": 27.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.053 }, { "gameId": "2025020693", "date": "20260108", "goalieTeam": "MIN", "opponent": "SEA", "shotsAgainst": 28.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3729.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.821 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.374215799897877, "adjustedSOG": 1.374215799897877, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.374215799897877, "adjustedSOG": 1.374215799897877, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.10855674739789833, "goalHistoryGoals": 31.0, "goalHistoryShots": 304.0, "goalExpected": 0.14918039745971465, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.14918039745971465, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.1385862959624543, "goalProbability": 0.1385862959624543, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12856925948750927, "modelSOG": 1.374215799897877, "historyGames": 158, "seasonGames": { "2024": 72, "2025": 77, "2026": 9 }, "historyGoals": 31.0, "historyShots": 304.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.10197368421052631, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.10855674739789833, "goalieFactor": 0.9495343259526882, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 49.14060744593778, "btb": { "id": "8482713", "name": "Mackie Samoskevich", "score": 49.14060744593778, "components": { "Goal model": 51.627906976744185, "SOG model": 51.16279069767442, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 59.41860465116279, "Goalie": 23.676470588235293, "Team H2H": 52.98252661176943, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 3, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 209 } }, { "id": "8477964", "name": "Ivan Barbashev", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "CBJ", "position": "L", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 1.4545454545454546, "priorSOG": 1.6219512195121952, "currentTOI": 15.907575757575756, "currentFiveTOI": 14.586363636363636, "ppShare": 0.16321105794790006, "rate": 1.6003455779466074, "fifty": 1.5680222268148305, "inputs": { "Player": "Ivan Barbashev", "Player_ID": "8477964", "Team": "VGK", "Opponent": "CBJ", "Position": "L", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.7308900263843174, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.6482424286404918, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 11, "Prior_GP": 82, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.8613275163602365, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.6724486885179095, "Current_PP_SOG60": 17.58957654723127, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 7.8393418824098715, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 14.69941796008869, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 14.586363636363636, "Current_PP_Share": 0.16321105794790006, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.18396360787665134, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 614.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3762.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 6, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.392708333333333, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.913723366969398, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.8801496322877902, "Other_State_SOG": 0.054878048780487805, "Environment_Proxy": 1.0241190783267258, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.6219512195121952, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/vegas-golden-knights/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:43.731857+00:00", "priorGP": 82, "currentTotalSOG": 16.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.9303030303030302, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.45 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.792, "currentIXG": 0.16290909090909092, "priorTOI": 16.241869918699187, "priorPPTOI": 0.8400406504065041, "deploymentChange": -0.3342941611234309, "ppTOIChange": 0.09026237989652608, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020692", "date": "20260108", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 20.783333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2025020502", "date": "20251213", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 15.433333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024021045", "date": "20250313", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 14.2 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 0.3333333333333333, "opponentDefense": { "team": "CBJ", "games": 8, "sogAllowedTotal": 222.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.75, "mostAllowedRank": 13, "fiveSogAllowed60": 26.021128266541208, "pkSogAllowed60": 45.718967636214664, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 43.125, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 66.0, "D": 61.0, "R": 49.0, "L": 46.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 8.25, "L": 5.75, "R": 6.125, "D": 7.625 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 28.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.666666666666668, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.75, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.75, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8475660", "team": "CBJ", "name": "Cam Talbot", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 4, "savePct": 0.8674698795180723, "gaa": 3.3959351685104195, "gsax": -0.8840000000000003, "goalsAllowed": 11.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 10.116, "shotsAgainst": 83.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0106708091071457, "factor": 1.0106708091071457, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T15:32:32.146Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.1662155291881559, "goalHistoryGoals": 47.0, "goalHistoryShots": 260.0, "goalExpected": 0.24544007506683105, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.2480591192551127, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.2176398347295706, "goalProbability": 0.2196861896568463, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.2046354927275701, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.4766374493744985, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.8613275163602365, "Current_PP_SOG60": 17.58957654723127, "Current_5v5_Min": 14.586363636363636, "Current_PP_Share": 0.16321105794790006, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.392708333333333, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.8801496322877902, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0080456056426796, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9827600403123256, "Position_Factor": 1.0127584007506538, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 614.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3762.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.6724486885179095, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 7.8393418824098715, "Prior_5v5_Min": 14.96321138211382, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.18396360787665134, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0603973889964853, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.062091503267974, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0603973889964853, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9827600403123256, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 4.8613275163602365, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 17.58957654723127, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020692", "date": "20260108", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 20.783333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2025020502", "date": "20251213", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 15.433333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024021045", "date": "20250313", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 14.2 }, { "gameId": "2024020820", "date": "20250130", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 18.183333333333334 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 178, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 13, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475660", "goalieName": "Cam Talbot", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8477964", "goals": 3, "sog": 15, "shootingPct": 0.2, "gamesWithAttempts": 6, "recordedAttempts": 18, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020970", "date": "20260304", "season": 2025, "goals": 1, "sog": 3, "attempts": 3 }, { "gameId": "2024021115", "date": "20250322", "season": 2024, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 3 }, { "gameId": "2023020192", "date": "20231108", "season": 2023, "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 4 }, { "gameId": "2023020125", "date": "20231028", "season": 2023, "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2021021202", "date": "20220416", "season": 2021, "goals": 1, "sog": 3, "attempts": 3 }, { "gameId": "2021020572", "date": "20220101", "season": 2021, "goals": 1, "sog": 4, "attempts": 4 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475660", "goalieName": "Cam Talbot", "opponent": "VGK", "games": 5, "availableGames": 22, "shotsAgainst": 160.0, "goalsAgainst": 16.0, "savePct": 0.9, "gaa": 3.176704169424222, "gsax": 0.6329999999999996, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020970", "date": "20260304", "goalieTeam": "DET", "opponent": "VGK", "shotsAgainst": 25.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3728.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.397 }, { "gameId": "2024021115", "date": "20250322", "goalieTeam": "DET", "opponent": "VGK", "shotsAgainst": 35.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3491.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.784 }, { "gameId": "2023020544", "date": "20231228", "goalieTeam": "LAK", "opponent": "VGK", "shotsAgainst": 32.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3478.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.46 }, { "gameId": "2023020192", "date": "20231108", "goalieTeam": "LAK", "opponent": "VGK", "shotsAgainst": 38.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.55 }, { "gameId": "2023020125", "date": "20231028", "goalieTeam": "LAK", "opponent": "VGK", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3835.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.442 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.4766374493744985, "adjustedSOG": 1.4766374493744985, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.5067729075249985, "adjustedSOG": 1.4766374493744985, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.1662155291881559, "goalHistoryGoals": 47.0, "goalHistoryShots": 260.0, "goalExpected": 0.25044905619064395, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.25312155026031913, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.22154886373010574, "goalProbability": 0.2236264923137106, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.2077628583604857 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12837590507736124, "modelSOG": 1.4766374493744985, "historyGames": 163, "seasonGames": { "2024": 70, "2025": 82, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 47.0, "historyShots": 260.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.18076923076923077, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.1662155291881559, "goalieFactor": 1.0106708091071457, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 50.95919333041126, "btb": { "id": "8477964", "name": "Ivan Barbashev", "score": 50.95919333041126, "components": { "Goal model": 76.51162790697674, "SOG model": 56.27906976744186, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 50.46511627906977, "Goalie": 13.088235294117647, "Team H2H": 39.07124207385304, "Goalie H2H": 56.26892792247123 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": 15, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 192 } }, { "id": "8477450", "name": "Jason Dickinson", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "TOR", "position": "C", "currentGP": 3, "currentSOG": 0.6666666666666666, "priorSOG": 1.1428571428571428, "currentTOI": 12.205555555555556, "currentFiveTOI": 10.944444444444445, "ppShare": 0.0, "rate": 1.0969594523578101, "fifty": 0.9653829008962771, "inputs": { "Player": "Jason Dickinson", "Player_ID": "8477450", "Team": "EDM", "Opponent": "TOR", "Position": "C", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.0190385228115129, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 0.8379378184981889, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 3, "Prior_GP": 63, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.6548223350253806, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.810690423162583, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 11.285266457680251, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 11.580952380952379, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 10.944444444444445, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.020721154478353376, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 818.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 2, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.365824915824916, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.03335582609538168, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.0, "Other_State_SOG": 0.07142857142857142, "Environment_Proxy": 1.1073475417853031, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.1428571428571428, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:43.751923+00:00", "priorGP": 63, "currentTotalSOG": 2.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.0, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.67 SOG/game in 3 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 3 games. 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MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020520", "date": "20251216", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "TOR", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 17.683333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020394", "date": "20241202", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "TOR", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 15.833333333333334 } ], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Reviewed October22 projected lineup and coach reports", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 110, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. 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Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476932", "goalieName": "Anthony Stolarz", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8477450", "goals": 1, "sog": 4, "shootingPct": 0.25, "gamesWithAttempts": 3, "recordedAttempts": 6, "log": [ { "gameId": "2024020394", "date": "20241202", "season": 2024, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2023020168", "date": "20231104", "season": 2023, "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 2 }, { "gameId": "2022020818", "date": "20230207", "season": 2022, "goals": 1, "sog": 3, "attempts": 3 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476932", "goalieName": "Anthony Stolarz", "opponent": "EDM", "games": 5, "availableGames": 5, "shotsAgainst": 140.0, "goalsAgainst": 14.0, "savePct": 0.9, "gaa": 3.2642487046632125, "gsax": -1.5539999999999994, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020891", "date": "20260203", "goalieTeam": "TOR", "opponent": "EDM", "shotsAgainst": 36.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.709 }, { "gameId": "2024020274", "date": "20241116", "goalieTeam": "TOR", "opponent": "EDM", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3640.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.584 }, { "gameId": "2022020660", "date": "20230111", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "EDM", "shotsAgainst": 16.0, "goalsAgainst": 0.0, "seconds": 1200.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.249 }, { "gameId": "2021020049", "date": "20211019", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "EDM", "shotsAgainst": 36.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3461.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.959 }, { "gameId": "2018020494", "date": "20181214", "goalieTeam": "PHI", "opponent": "EDM", "shotsAgainst": 22.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3539.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.945 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.7547377214967242, "adjustedSOG": 0.7547377214967242, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.7547377214967242, "adjustedSOG": 0.7547377214967242, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.11674841837488383, "goalHistoryGoals": 14.0, "goalHistoryShots": 130.0, "goalExpected": 0.08811443527260611, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.08811443527260611, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.08434391262633097, "goalProbability": 0.08434391262633097, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1285213622622328, "modelSOG": 0.7547377214967242, "historyGames": 125, "seasonGames": { "2024": 59, "2025": 63, "2026": 3 }, "historyGoals": 14.0, "historyShots": 130.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.1076923076923077, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.11674841837488383, "goalieFactor": 0.9986972168772468, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8476389", "name": "Vincent Trocheck", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "TBL", "position": "C", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 1.2, "priorSOG": 1.7014925373134329, "currentTOI": 16.315, "currentFiveTOI": 13.431666666666667, "ppShare": 0.25216832637327335, "rate": 1.3540223749399638, "fifty": 1.2406594385211491, "inputs": { "Player": "Vincent Trocheck", "Player_ID": "8476389", "Team": "UTA", "Opponent": "TBL", "Position": "C", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.7627218681727699, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.5840242308151484, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 10, "Prior_GP": 67, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.467055465938702, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.03375040320527, "Current_PP_SOG60": 4.585987261146497, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 9.998264190244749, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 13.797912935323382, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 13.431666666666667, "Current_PP_Share": 0.25216832637327335, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.7822288426953398, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 785.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3113.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 6, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.821018518518519, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 1.9823376407666233, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 1.2157081712293727, "Other_State_SOG": 0.21149253731343284, "Environment_Proxy": 0.8844868901771036, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.7014925373134329, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/utah-mammoth/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:43.771686+00:00", "priorGP": 67, "currentTotalSOG": 12.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.3083333333333333, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.20 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.97, "currentIXG": 0.197, "priorTOI": 20.551243781094527, "priorPPTOI": 2.8661691542288557, "deploymentChange": -4.236243781094526, "ppTOIChange": -1.5578358208955223, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021302", "date": "20260415", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 20.316666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020391", "date": "20251129", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 22.85 }, { "gameId": "2025020265", "date": "20251112", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 2.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 16.716666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2024021310", "date": "20250417", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 16.033333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2024021230", "date": "20250407", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 22.433333333333334 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 6, "h2hSOG": 2.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "TBL", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 218.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 24.22222222222222, "mostAllowedRank": 29, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.310572168589594, "pkSogAllowed60": 47.9002079002079, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 36.333333333333336, "positionUnassignedSOG": 1.0, "positionTotals": { "L": 36.0, "R": 49.0, "D": 66.0, "C": 66.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.333333333333333, "L": 4.0, "R": 5.444444444444445, "D": 7.333333333333333 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 24.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.25, "positionSourceDifference": 1.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 24.22222222222222, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.333333333333333, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8483710", "team": "TBL", "name": "Dennis Hildeby", "status": "Unconfirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 2, "savePct": 0.92, "gaa": 2.0089285714285716, "gsax": 0.8719999999999999, "goalsAllowed": 4.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.872, "shotsAgainst": 50.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9926942170737747, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Starter remains unconfirmed per Daily Faceoff; no Model Goal adjustment.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": null }, "goalShootingPct": 0.13282259120934775, "goalHistoryGoals": 44.0, "goalHistoryShots": 328.0, "goalExpected": 0.14445729246386438, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.14445729246386438, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.13450812536067056, "goalProbability": 0.13450812536067056, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.0875958008994016, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.467055465938702, "Current_PP_SOG60": 4.585987261146497, "Current_5v5_Min": 13.431666666666667, "Current_PP_Share": 0.25216832637327335, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.821018518518519, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.2157081712293727, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.1, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9588832837562793, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0032616490671127, "Position_Factor": 0.985038993166415, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 785.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3113.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.03375040320527, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 9.998264190244749, "Prior_5v5_Min": 14.652487562189055, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.7822288426953398, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.894372357486514, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.437908496732026, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.894372357486514, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0032616490671127, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 4.467055465938702, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 4.585987261146497, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 3.3333333333333335 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 1.3333333333333333 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021302", "date": "20260415", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 20.316666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020391", "date": "20251129", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 22.85 }, { "gameId": "2025020265", "date": "20251112", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 2.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 16.716666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2024021310", "date": "20250417", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 16.033333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2024021230", "date": "20250407", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 22.433333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020572", "date": "20241228", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 24.516666666666666 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 117, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 53, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8483710", "goalieName": "Dennis Hildeby", "starterStatus": "Unconfirmed", "shooterId": "8476389", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8483710", "goalieName": "Dennis Hildeby", "opponent": "UTA", "games": 1, "availableGames": 1, "shotsAgainst": 41.0, "goalsAgainst": 6.0, "savePct": 0.8536585365853658, "gaa": 6.0, "gsax": -1.2770000000000001, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020733", "date": "20260113", "goalieTeam": "TOR", "opponent": "UTA", "shotsAgainst": 41.0, "goalsAgainst": 6.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.723 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.0875958008994016, "adjustedSOG": 1.0875958008994016, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.0875958008994016, "adjustedSOG": 1.0875958008994016, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.13282259120934775, "goalHistoryGoals": 44.0, "goalHistoryShots": 328.0, "goalExpected": 0.14445729246386438, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.14445729246386438, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.13450812536067056, "goalProbability": 0.13450812536067056, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12848069037600837, "modelSOG": 1.0875958008994016, "historyGames": 159, "seasonGames": { "2024": 82, "2025": 67, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 44.0, "historyShots": 328.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.13414634146341464, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.13282259120934775, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 53.246421306697435, "btb": { "id": "8476389", "name": "Vincent Trocheck", "score": 53.246421306697435, "components": { "Goal model": 50.46511627906977, "SOG model": 35.58139534883721, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 62.674418604651166, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 67.37924281984334, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Unconfirmed", "h2hGames": 6, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 168 } }, { "id": "8482511", "name": "Mason Lohrei", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "position": "D", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 0.9, "priorSOG": 0.9863013698630136, "currentTOI": 17.931666666666665, "currentFiveTOI": 15.786666666666667, "ppShare": 0.2161646969119329, "rate": 1.0549449438632306, "fifty": 1.0314531586619615, "inputs": { "Player": "Mason Lohrei", "Player_ID": "8482511", "Team": "BOS", "Opponent": "SJS", "Position": "D", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.0783338360587453, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.016972171796934, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 10, "Prior_GP": 73, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.0405405405405403, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.0628057488377745, "Current_PP_SOG60": 6.349206349206349, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 8.803493449781659, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 15.559022831050228, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 15.786666666666667, "Current_PP_Share": 0.2161646969119329, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.29809309318080857, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 567.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2623.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 6, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.950833333333334, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 1.191879537519842, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 1.0701953869614946, "Other_State_SOG": 0.024657534246575342, "Environment_Proxy": 1.0796680236682055, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 0.9863013698630136, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/boston-bruins/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:43.791141+00:00", "priorGP": 73, "currentTotalSOG": 9.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.945, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.90 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.748, "currentIXG": 0.0748, "priorTOI": 16.90525114155251, "priorPPTOI": 1.3070776255707763, "deploymentChange": 1.0264155251141531, "ppTOIChange": -0.3620776255707764, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2026020105", "date": "20261013", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 13.333333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025021027", "date": "20260312", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 20.316666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020351", "date": "20251123", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 14.35 }, { "gameId": "2024021117", "date": "20250322", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 21.783333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2024020740", "date": "20250120", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 23.433333333333334 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 5, "h2hSOG": 1.2, "opponentDefense": { "team": "SJS", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 286.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 28.6, "mostAllowedRank": 10, "fiveSogAllowed60": 25.210423540502322, "pkSogAllowed60": 49.90958408679928, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 47.8, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 86.0, "C": 94.0, "R": 53.0, "L": 53.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.4, "L": 5.3, "R": 5.3, "D": 8.6 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 30.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 29.833333333333332, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 28.6, "oppPosSogAllowed": 8.6, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8477968", "team": "SJS", "name": "Alex Nedeljkovic", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 4, "savePct": 0.9173553719008265, "gaa": 2.372479240806643, "gsax": 4.638, "goalsAllowed": 10.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 14.638, "shotsAgainst": 121.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9618500831522029, "factor": 0.9618500831522029, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T16:06:01.887Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.07237343661061862, "goalHistoryGoals": 14.0, "goalHistoryShots": 173.0, "goalExpected": 0.07124791403438789, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.06852981203839699, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.06876900172586788, "goalProbability": 0.06623437776801075, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.25346239578571267, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 0.9844484022185345, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.0405405405405403, "Current_PP_SOG60": 6.349206349206349, "Current_5v5_Min": 15.786666666666667, "Current_PP_Share": 0.2161646969119329, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.950833333333334, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.0701953869614946, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9930883597207428, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0259958714356598, "Position_Factor": 1.0143476407933703, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 567.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2623.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.0628057488377745, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 8.803493449781659, "Prior_5v5_Min": 15.027853881278538, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.29809309318080857, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.085320284697509, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.34640522875817, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.085320284697509, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0259958714356598, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 3.0405405405405403, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 6.349206349206349, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.5 }, { "season": "2026", "label": "2026–27", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 1.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2026020105", "date": "20261013", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 13.333333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025021027", "date": "20260312", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 20.316666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020351", "date": "20251123", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 14.35 }, { "gameId": "2024021117", "date": "20250322", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 21.783333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2024020740", "date": "20250120", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 23.433333333333334 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "ppAssignmentSourceDate": "2026-10-12T22:24:39.463Z", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 97, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 25, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477968", "goalieName": "Alex Nedeljkovic", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8482511", "goals": 1, "sog": 6, "shootingPct": 0.16666666666666666, "gamesWithAttempts": 4, "recordedAttempts": 12, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021027", "date": "20260312", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 3 }, { "gameId": "2024020952", "date": "20250301", "season": 2024, "goals": 1, "sog": 3, "attempts": 5 }, { "gameId": "2023021012", "date": "20240309", "season": 2023, "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 2 }, { "gameId": "2023020589", "date": "20240104", "season": 2023, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477968", "goalieName": "Alex Nedeljkovic", "opponent": "BOS", "games": 5, "availableGames": 8, "shotsAgainst": 134.0, "goalsAgainst": 17.0, "savePct": 0.8731343283582089, "gaa": 3.7850207186591627, "gsax": -3.2609999999999997, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021027", "date": "20260312", "goalieTeam": "SJS", "opponent": "BOS", "shotsAgainst": 41.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.661 }, { "gameId": "2024020952", "date": "20250301", "goalieTeam": "PIT", "opponent": "BOS", "shotsAgainst": 25.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3474.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.566 }, { "gameId": "2023021279", "date": "20240413", "goalieTeam": "PIT", "opponent": "BOS", "shotsAgainst": 16.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 1895.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.22 }, { "gameId": "2023021012", "date": "20240309", "goalieTeam": "PIT", "opponent": "BOS", "shotsAgainst": 23.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.955 }, { "gameId": "2023020589", "date": "20240104", "goalieTeam": "PIT", "opponent": "BOS", "shotsAgainst": 29.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.337 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.9844484022185345, "adjustedSOG": 0.9844484022185345, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.9844484022185345, "adjustedSOG": 0.9844484022185345, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.07237343661061862, "goalHistoryGoals": 14.0, "goalHistoryShots": 173.0, "goalExpected": 0.07124791403438789, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.07124791403438789, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.06876900172586788, "goalProbability": 0.06876900172586788, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05757948194698884, "modelSOG": 0.9844484022185345, "historyGames": 160, "seasonGames": { "2024": 77, "2025": 73, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 14.0, "historyShots": 173.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.08092485549132948, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.07237343661061862, "goalieFactor": 0.9618500831522029, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 44.7162354011262, "btb": { "id": "8482511", "name": "Mason Lohrei", "score": 44.7162354011262, "components": { "Goal model": 24.41860465116279, "SOG model": 26.976744186046513, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 16.976744186046513, "Goalie": 97.5, "Team H2H": 44.03829416884247, "Goalie H2H": 54.30258717660293 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 5, "goalieH2HShots": 6, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 278 } }, { "id": "8482667", "name": "William Eklund", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "NYR", "position": "L", "currentGP": 4, "currentSOG": 2.25, "priorSOG": 2.269230769230769, "currentTOI": 13.925, "currentFiveTOI": 10.8875, "ppShare": 0.3549618320610687, "rate": 1.936323888573517, "fifty": 1.9144508531586861, "inputs": { "Player": "William Eklund", "Player_ID": "8482667", "Team": "OTT", "Opponent": "NYR", "Position": "L", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 2.004438021207437, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.9815321804366186, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 4, "Prior_GP": 78, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 8.266360505166475, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.783952889216047, "Current_PP_SOG60": 12.903225806451612, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 9.672830725462305, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 11.975416666666664, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 10.8875, "Current_PP_Share": 0.3549618320610687, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.5380527206915929, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 558.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1572.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 4, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 6.001439393939394, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 2.4599245837857766, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 2.1302819222761973, "Other_State_SOG": 0.18653846153846154, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9482920490252438, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 2.269230769230769, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/ottawa-senators/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:43.810654+00:00", "priorGP": 78, "currentTotalSOG": 9.0, "currentPPTOI": 2.325, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.25 SOG/game in 4 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 4 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 2.658, "currentIXG": 0.6645, "priorTOI": 18.540811965811965, "priorPPTOI": 2.703846153846154, "deploymentChange": -4.6158119658119645, "ppTOIChange": -0.37884615384615383, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020808", "date": "20260123", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "NYR", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 18.166666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2025020116", "date": "20251023", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "NYR", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 8.0, "toi": 20.85 }, { "gameId": "2024021168", "date": "20250329", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "NYR", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 18.416666666666668 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 2.3333333333333335, "opponentDefense": { "team": "NYR", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 283.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 25.727272727272727, "mostAllowedRank": 23, "fiveSogAllowed60": 24.897512126427788, "pkSogAllowed60": 40.17358958462492, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 39.81818181818182, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 106.0, "D": 82.0, "R": 57.0, "L": 38.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.636363636363637, "L": 3.4545454545454546, "R": 5.181818181818182, "D": 7.454545454545454 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 27.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.4, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 25.727272727272727, "oppPosSogAllowed": 3.4545454545454546, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8482193", "team": "NYR", "name": "Dylan Garand", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.9285714285714286, "gaa": 1.846928781306842, "gsax": 4.030999999999999, "goalsAllowed": 11.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 15.030999999999999, "shotsAgainst": 154.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9674872583533348, "factor": 0.9674872583533348, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T15:37:42.216Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.10494034253592216, "goalHistoryGoals": 33.0, "goalHistoryShots": 337.0, "goalExpected": 0.2042534973106972, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.1976126561222067, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.18474432013182446, "goalProbability": 0.1793123200718729, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.5432000059951564, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 4, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.9463772689781256, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 8.266360505166475, "Current_PP_SOG60": 12.903225806451612, "Current_5v5_Min": 10.8875, "Current_PP_Share": 0.3549618320610687, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 6.001439393939394, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 2.1302819222761973, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.25, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9864268368728425, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9197863814450764, "Position_Factor": 0.9636523028595196, "Input_GP": 4, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 558.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1572.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.783952889216047, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 9.672830725462305, "Prior_5v5_Min": 14.513888888888888, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.5380527206915929, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.85, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.062091503267974, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9197863814450764, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 8.266360505166475, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 12.903225806451612, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 3.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020808", "date": "20260123", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "NYR", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 18.166666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2025020116", "date": "20251023", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "NYR", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 8.0, "toi": 20.85 }, { "gameId": "2024021168", "date": "20250329", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "NYR", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 18.416666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2024020261", "date": "20241114", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "NYR", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 21.416666666666668 } ], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "lineupReviewedAt": "2026-10-22T12:25:32.333917+00:00", "lineupReviewNote": "Reported forward, defense and PP chart reviewed October22; matches existing assignments. Final dressing unconfirmed. Dated statistical inputs now include October21.", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 180, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 47, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482193", "goalieName": "Dylan Garand", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8482667", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482193", "goalieName": "Dylan Garand", "opponent": "OTT", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "No appearance found in the supplied historical files; this does not establish that the goalie has never faced the team." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.9463772689781256, "adjustedSOG": 1.9463772689781256, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.9463772689781256, "adjustedSOG": 1.9463772689781256, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.10494034253592216, "goalHistoryGoals": 33.0, "goalHistoryShots": 337.0, "goalExpected": 0.2042534973106972, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.1976126561222067, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.18474432013182446, "goalProbability": 0.1793123200718729, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.5432000059951564 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12858929688197981, "modelSOG": 1.9463772689781256, "historyGames": 159, "seasonGames": { "2024": 77, "2025": 78, "2026": 4 }, "historyGoals": 33.0, "historyShots": 337.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.09792284866468842, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.10494034253592216, "goalieFactor": 0.9674872583533348, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8478434", "name": "Keegan Kolesar", "team": "DET", "opponent": "CGY", "position": "R", "currentGP": 9, "currentSOG": 0.2222222222222222, "priorSOG": 0.8170731707317073, "currentTOI": 10.74074074074074, "currentFiveTOI": 9.516666666666667, "ppShare": 0.004126984126984127, "rate": 0.774078921910267, "fifty": 0.5674549096534363, "inputs": { "Player": "Keegan Kolesar", "Player_ID": "8478434", "Team": "DET", "Opponent": "CGY", "Position": "R", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 0.7829392157059217, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 0.6452248037265073, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 9, "Prior_GP": 82, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 1.4010507880910683, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.478793590951932, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 9.896422764227642, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 9.516666666666667, "Current_PP_Share": 0.004126984126984127, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.016023929067407326, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 13.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3150.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 5, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.430208333333333, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.041791250464891766, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.0224103835978836, "Other_State_SOG": 0.010975609756097562, "Environment_Proxy": 1.096640755468006, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 0.8170731707317073, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:43.831493+00:00", "priorGP": 82, "currentTotalSOG": 2.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.024074074074074074, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.22 SOG/game in 9 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 9 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.182, "currentIXG": 0.02022222222222222, "priorTOI": 11.53719512195122, "priorPPTOI": 0.07317073170731707, "deploymentChange": -0.796454381210479, "ppTOIChange": -0.049096657633242995, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021201", "date": "20260402", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 13.166666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020559", "date": "20251220", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 13.2 }, { "gameId": "2025020087", "date": "20251018", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 13.233333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020053", "date": "20251014", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 10.033333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024021299", "date": "20250415", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 15.566666666666666 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 8, "h2hSOG": 0.6, "opponentDefense": { "team": "CGY", "games": 8, "sogAllowedTotal": 237.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 29.625, "mostAllowedRank": 6, "fiveSogAllowed60": 29.8086265894977, "pkSogAllowed60": 38.789888106092, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.5, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 59.0, "C": 89.0, "R": 48.0, "L": 41.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 11.125, "L": 5.125, "R": 6.0, "D": 7.375 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 30.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.5, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 29.625, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.0, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8482445", "team": "CGY", "name": "Devin Cooley", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 3, "savePct": 0.8681318681318682, "gaa": 4.010025062656641, "gsax": -2.561, "goalsAllowed": 12.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 9.439, "shotsAgainst": 91.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0263021756310153, "factor": 1.0263021756310153, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T16:24:22.507Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.12004538344254027, "goalHistoryGoals": 18.0, "goalHistoryShots": 157.0, "goalExpected": 0.027476568517068943, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.028199262047942517, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.027102521282954786, "goalProbability": 0.027805373992882656, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.07028527099278703, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 9, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 0.2288848411252783, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 1.4010507880910683, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 9.516666666666667, "Current_PP_Share": 0.004126984126984127, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.430208333333333, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.0224103835978836, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0746225056341803, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9180727421999328, "Position_Factor": 1.002759140132039, "Input_GP": 9, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 13.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3150.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.478793590951932, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 10.78252032520325, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.016023929067407326, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0510018214936248, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.382352941176471, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0510018214936248, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9180727421999328, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 1.4010507880910683, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 4, "sogPerGame": 1.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 4, "sogPerGame": 0.25 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021201", "date": "20260402", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 13.166666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020559", "date": "20251220", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 13.2 }, { "gameId": "2025020087", "date": "20251018", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 13.233333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020053", "date": "20251014", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 10.033333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024021299", "date": "20250415", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 15.566666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024021220", "date": "20250405", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 9.9 }, { "gameId": "2024020584", "date": "20241229", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 15.333333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020147", "date": "20241028", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 2.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 10.55 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Reviewed October22 projected lineup and coach reports", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 103, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482445", "goalieName": "Devin Cooley", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8478434", "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 2, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020559", "date": "20251220", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482445", "goalieName": "Devin Cooley", "opponent": "DET", "games": 1, "availableGames": 1, "shotsAgainst": 29.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "savePct": 0.8620689655172413, "gaa": 4.1248925809223715, "gsax": -1.0219999999999998, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020477", "date": "20251210", "goalieTeam": "CGY", "opponent": "DET", "shotsAgainst": 29.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3491.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.978 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.2288848411252783, "adjustedSOG": 0.2288848411252783, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.23355596033191664, "adjustedSOG": 0.2288848411252783, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.12004538344254027, "goalHistoryGoals": 18.0, "goalHistoryShots": 157.0, "goalExpected": 0.02803731481333566, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.02803731481333566, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.02764791701218399, "goalProbability": 0.02764791701218399, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12851663544732853, "modelSOG": 0.2288848411252783, "historyGames": 173, "seasonGames": { "2024": 82, "2025": 82, "2026": 9 }, "historyGoals": 18.0, "historyShots": 157.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.11464968152866242, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.12004538344254027, "goalieFactor": 1.0263021756310153, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 39.56093965725773, "btb": { "id": "8478434", "name": "Keegan Kolesar", "score": 39.56093965725773, "components": { "Goal model": 5.813953488372093, "SOG model": 2.3255813953488373, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 3.0232558139534884, "Goalie": 71.32352941176471, "Team H2H": 72.10617928633594, "Goalie H2H": 50.31264474293654 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 8, "goalieH2HShots": 1, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 358 } }, { "id": "8475218", "name": "Mattias Ekholm", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "TOR", "position": "D", "currentGP": 9, "currentSOG": 1.0, "priorSOG": 1.5975609756097562, "currentTOI": 21.764814814814812, "currentFiveTOI": 18.07962962962963, "ppShare": 0.07974733517568101, "rate": 1.7137943783617828, "fifty": 1.5009911575706494, "inputs": { "Player": "Mattias Ekholm", "Player_ID": "8475218", "Team": "EDM", "Opponent": "TOR", "Position": "D", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.5933519236261224, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.3675462965820544, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 9, "Prior_GP": 82, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.9499129365973573, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.885744113211924, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 1.6129032258064515, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 17.91244805781391, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 18.07962962962963, "Current_PP_Share": 0.07974733517568101, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.11138947389433972, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 202.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2533.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 5, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.365824915824916, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.4788460909542801, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.42791023805630996, "Other_State_SOG": 0.1537940379403794, "Environment_Proxy": 1.1073475417853031, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.5975609756097562, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:43.851268+00:00", "priorGP": 82, "currentTotalSOG": 9.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.37407407407407406, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.00 SOG/game in 9 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 9 games. 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MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020891", "date": "20260203", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "TOR", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 20.9 }, { "gameId": "2025020499", "date": "20251213", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "TOR", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 18.533333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2024020274", "date": "20241116", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "TOR", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 25.016666666666666 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Reviewed October22 projected lineup and coach reports", "ppAssignmentSourceDate": "2026-10-13T18:05:51.141Z", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 185, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. 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Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476932", "goalieName": "Anthony Stolarz", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8475218", "goals": 0, "sog": 5, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 2, "recordedAttempts": 8, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020891", "date": "20260203", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 3 }, { "gameId": "2024020274", "date": "20241116", "season": 2024, "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 5 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476932", "goalieName": "Anthony Stolarz", "opponent": "EDM", "games": 5, "availableGames": 5, "shotsAgainst": 140.0, "goalsAgainst": 14.0, "savePct": 0.9, "gaa": 3.2642487046632125, "gsax": -1.5539999999999994, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020891", "date": "20260203", "goalieTeam": "TOR", "opponent": "EDM", "shotsAgainst": 36.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.709 }, { "gameId": "2024020274", "date": "20241116", "goalieTeam": "TOR", "opponent": "EDM", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3640.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.584 }, { "gameId": "2022020660", "date": "20230111", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "EDM", "shotsAgainst": 16.0, "goalsAgainst": 0.0, "seconds": 1200.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.249 }, { "gameId": "2021020049", "date": "20211019", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "EDM", "shotsAgainst": 36.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3461.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.959 }, { "gameId": "2018020494", "date": "20181214", "goalieTeam": "PHI", "opponent": "EDM", "shotsAgainst": 22.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3539.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.945 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.0990415937035154, "adjustedSOG": 1.0990415937035154, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.0990415937035154, "adjustedSOG": 1.0990415937035154, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.056835570811399, "goalHistoryGoals": 16.0, "goalHistoryShots": 283.0, "goalExpected": 0.06246465632360896, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.06246465632360896, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.060553734288481834, "goalProbability": 0.060553734288481834, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05768023620765815, "modelSOG": 1.0990415937035154, "historyGames": 156, "seasonGames": { "2024": 65, "2025": 82, "2026": 9 }, "historyGoals": 16.0, "historyShots": 283.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.05653710247349823, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.056835570811399, "goalieFactor": 0.9986972168772468, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 41.15471688414145, "btb": { "id": "8475218", "name": "Mattias Ekholm", "score": 41.15471688414145, "components": { "Goal model": 20.930232558139537, "SOG model": 36.27906976744186, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 14.883720930232558, "Goalie": 60.73529411764706, "Team H2H": 52.22936332596907, "Goalie H2H": 47.58410880458125 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 3, "goalieH2HShots": 5, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 333 } }, { "id": "8483760", "name": "Hunter McDonald", "position": "D", "priorGP": 1, "priorSOG": 0, "priorTOI": 15.183333333333334, "priorPPTOI": 0, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 10.666666666666666, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.042592592592593, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.0, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0050173142237073, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9117211340641708, "Position_Factor": 0.9807721620568941, "Input_GP": 2, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 530.0, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9131859898857464, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.34640522875817, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9131859898857464, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9117211340641708, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 0, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "inputs": { "Player": "Hunter McDonald", "Player_ID": "8483760", "Team": "PHI", "Opponent": "ANA", "Position": "D", "Current_GP": 2, "Prior_GP": 1, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 0.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 0, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 11.246666666666666, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 10.666666666666666, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0, "Prior_PP_Share": 0, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 530.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 1, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Measured game-matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Historical skater-team PP minute approximation, existing hybrid method", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.042592592592593, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.0, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.0, "Other_State_SOG": 0.0, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9949214190083264, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 0, "Status": "Historical input object restored from saved prior summaries", "Availability_Note": "Conditional on dressing", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 0, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 0 }, "team": "PHI", "isHome": true, "opponent": "ANA", "opponentDefense": { "team": "ANA", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 239.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 26.555555555555557, "mostAllowedRank": 18, "fiveSogAllowed60": 25.834281008587897, "pkSogAllowed60": 38.93928820655967, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 43.333333333333336, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 54.0, "C": 91.0, "R": 57.0, "L": 37.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.11111111111111, "L": 4.111111111111111, "R": 6.333333333333333, "D": 6.0 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 28.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.2, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8480843", "team": "ANA", "name": "Lukas Dostal", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.8813559322033898, "gaa": 3.1634446397188047, "gsax": 2.846, "goalsAllowed": 21.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 23.846, "shotsAgainst": 177.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9815060369171769, "factor": 0.9815060369171769, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T16:38:16.530Z" }, "oppSogAllowed": 26.555555555555557, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.0, "currentGP": 2, "currentTotalSOG": 0.0, "currentSOG": 0.0, "currentTOI": 11.666666666666666, "currentFiveTOI": 10.666666666666666, "currentPPTOI": 0.0, "currentIXG": 0.0, "currentIXGTotal": 0.0, "currentIXGGP": 2, "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "volumeNote": "Observed 0.00 SOG/game in 2 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 2 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "ppShare": 0.0, "trial": 0.0, "deploymentChange": -3.5166666666666675, "ppTOIChange": 0.0, "rate": 0.0, "fifty": 0.0, "goalShootingPct": 0.05767276422764227, "goalHistoryGoals": 0.0, "goalHistoryShots": 0.0, "goalExpected": 0.0, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.0, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.0, "goalProbability": 0.0, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "h2hFullLog": [], "h2hLog": [], "h2hGames": 0, "h2hAvailableGames": 0, "h2hSOG": null, "h2hSeasonSummary": [], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "recentlyDressed": true, "boardEligible": true, "projected": false, "status": "Lineup pending", "line": null, "lineMates": [], "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:43.871663+00:00", "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff latest reported chart; October 21 final lineup pending", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/philadelphia-flyers/line-combinations", "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480843", "goalieName": "Lukas Dostal", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8483760", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480843", "goalieName": "Lukas Dostal", "opponent": "PHI", "games": 5, "availableGames": 5, "shotsAgainst": 155.0, "goalsAgainst": 18.0, "savePct": 0.8838709677419355, "gaa": 3.646595385481148, "gsax": -2.507999999999999, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021082", "date": "20260318", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 28.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3704.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.611 }, { "gameId": "2025020670", "date": "20260106", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 38.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3560.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.171 }, { "gameId": "2024020568", "date": "20241228", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3472.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.781 }, { "gameId": "2023020208", "date": "20231110", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 35.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3450.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.281 }, { "gameId": "2023020117", "date": "20231028", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3584.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.648 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.0, "adjustedSOG": 0.0, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.0, "adjustedSOG": 0.0, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.05767276422764227, "goalHistoryGoals": 0.0, "goalHistoryShots": 0.0, "goalExpected": 0.0, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.0, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.0, "goalProbability": 0.0, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.057672764227642274, "modelSOG": 0.0, "historyGames": 3, "seasonGames": { "2025": 1, "2026": 2 }, "historyGoals": 0.0, "historyShots": 0.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": null, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.05767276422764227, "goalieFactor": 0.9815060369171769, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": 36.2062243502052, "btb": { "id": "8483760", "name": "Hunter McDonald", "score": 36.2062243502052, "components": { "Goal model": 0.6976744186046512, "SOG model": 0.6976744186046512, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 40.46511627906977, "Goalie": 44.85294117647059, "Team H2H": 50.0, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Team H2H unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 0, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 395 } }, { "id": "8480021", "name": "Jack Studnicka", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "ANA", "position": "C", "currentGP": 3, "currentSOG": 0.3333333333333333, "priorSOG": 0.8421052631578947, "currentTOI": 8.799999999999999, "currentFiveTOI": 8.799999999999999, "ppShare": 0.0, "rate": 0.8820445849734367, "fifty": 0.693657884360575, "inputs": { "Player": "Jack Studnicka", "Player_ID": "8480021", "Team": "PHI", "Opponent": "ANA", "Position": "C", "Current_GP": 3, "Prior_GP": 19, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.272727272727273, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.875477463712758, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 41.37931034482759, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 8.226842105263156, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 8.799999999999999, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.014927902093552476, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 834.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 3, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Measured game-matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Historical skater-team PP minute approximation, existing hybrid method", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.042592592592593, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.02258259855596855, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.0, "Other_State_SOG": 0.0, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9949214190083264, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 0.8421052631578947, "Status": "Historical input object restored from saved prior summaries", "Availability_Note": "Conditional on dressing", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 0.855879151878798, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 0.6740697446168844 }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/philadelphia-flyers/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:43.891915+00:00", "priorGP": 19, "currentTotalSOG": 1.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.0, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.33 SOG/game in 3 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 3 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.128, "currentIXG": 0.042666666666666665, "priorTOI": 7.095614035087719, "priorPPTOI": 0.07631578947368421, "deploymentChange": 1.7043859649122801, "ppTOIChange": -0.07631578947368421, "h2hLog": [], "h2hGames": 0, "h2hAvailableGames": 0, "h2hSOG": null, "opponentDefense": { "team": "ANA", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 239.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 26.555555555555557, "mostAllowedRank": 18, "fiveSogAllowed60": 25.834281008587897, "pkSogAllowed60": 38.93928820655967, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 43.333333333333336, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 54.0, "C": 91.0, "R": 57.0, "L": 37.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.11111111111111, "L": 4.111111111111111, "R": 6.333333333333333, "D": 6.0 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 28.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.2, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 26.555555555555557, "oppPosSogAllowed": 10.11111111111111, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8480843", "team": "ANA", "name": "Lukas Dostal", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.8813559322033898, "gaa": 3.1634446397188047, "gsax": 2.846, "goalsAllowed": 21.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 23.846, "shotsAgainst": 177.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9815060369171769, "factor": 0.9815060369171769, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T16:38:16.530Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.10984333656939448, "goalHistoryGoals": 0.0, "goalHistoryShots": 17.0, "goalExpected": 0.037851564308666666, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.03715153887571508, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.0371441475415375, "goalProbability": 0.036469887984665446, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.06742595568720519, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": null, "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 3, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 0.3445959080526802, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.272727272727273, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 8.799999999999999, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.042592592592593, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.0, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0050173142237073, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9117211340641708, "Position_Factor": 1.0116943517389423, "Input_GP": 3, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 834.0, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0337877241580407, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.437908496732026, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0337877241580407, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9117211340641708, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 2.272727272727273, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff latest reported chart; October 21 final lineup pending", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 19, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480843", "goalieName": "Lukas Dostal", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8480021", "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 4, "log": [ { "gameId": "2022021294", "date": "20230411", "season": 2022, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 4 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480843", "goalieName": "Lukas Dostal", "opponent": "PHI", "games": 5, "availableGames": 5, "shotsAgainst": 155.0, "goalsAgainst": 18.0, "savePct": 0.8838709677419355, "gaa": 3.646595385481148, "gsax": -2.507999999999999, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021082", "date": "20260318", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 28.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3704.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.611 }, { "gameId": "2025020670", "date": "20260106", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 38.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3560.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.171 }, { "gameId": "2024020568", "date": "20241228", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3472.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.781 }, { "gameId": "2023020208", "date": "20231110", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 35.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3450.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.281 }, { "gameId": "2023020117", "date": "20231028", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3584.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.648 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.3445959080526802, "adjustedSOG": 0.3445959080526802, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.3445959080526802, "adjustedSOG": 0.3445959080526802, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.10984333656939448, "goalHistoryGoals": 0.0, "goalHistoryShots": 17.0, "goalExpected": 0.037851564308666666, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.037851564308666666, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.0371441475415375, "goalProbability": 0.0371441475415375, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12851670378619154, "modelSOG": 0.3445959080526802, "historyGames": 22, "seasonGames": { "2025": 19, "2026": 3 }, "historyGoals": 0.0, "historyShots": 17.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.0, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.10984333656939448, "goalieFactor": 0.9815060369171769, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8484148", "name": "Oliver Bonk", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "ANA", "position": "D", "currentGP": 6, "currentSOG": 0.8333333333333334, "priorSOG": 1, "currentTOI": 19.933333333333334, "currentFiveTOI": 17.727777777777778, "ppShare": 0.24245939675174014, "rate": 1.182092197505722, "fifty": 1.0947959186873284, "inputs": { "Player": "Oliver Bonk", "Player_ID": "8484148", "Team": "PHI", "Opponent": "ANA", "Position": "D", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.382634861759968, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.751232002617801, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 6, "Prior_GP": 1, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.256345973049201, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.712041884816754, "Current_PP_SOG60": 8.61244019138756, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 16.229444444444443, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 17.727777777777778, "Current_PP_Share": 0.24245939675174014, "Prior_PP_Share": 0, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 418.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1724.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 1, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.042592592592593, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.8558367706453553, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 1.2226239580647933, "Other_State_SOG": 0.0, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9949214190083264, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/philadelphia-flyers/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:43.915566+00:00", "priorGP": 1, "currentTotalSOG": 5.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.1611111111111112, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.83 SOG/game in 6 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 6 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.5449999999999999, "currentIXG": 0.09083333333333332, "priorTOI": 16.466666666666665, "priorPPTOI": 0, "deploymentChange": 3.4666666666666686, "ppTOIChange": 1.1611111111111112, "h2hLog": [], "h2hGames": 0, "h2hAvailableGames": 0, "h2hSOG": null, "opponentDefense": { "team": "ANA", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 239.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 26.555555555555557, "mostAllowedRank": 18, "fiveSogAllowed60": 25.834281008587897, "pkSogAllowed60": 38.93928820655967, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 43.333333333333336, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 54.0, "C": 91.0, "R": 57.0, "L": 37.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.11111111111111, "L": 4.111111111111111, "R": 6.333333333333333, "D": 6.0 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 28.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.2, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 26.555555555555557, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.0, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8480843", "team": "ANA", "name": "Lukas Dostal", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.8813559322033898, "gaa": 3.1634446397188047, "gsax": 2.846, "goalsAllowed": 21.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 23.846, "shotsAgainst": 177.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9815060369171769, "factor": 0.9815060369171769, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T16:38:16.530Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.06382797892231855, "goalHistoryGoals": 1.0, "goalHistoryShots": 6.0, "goalExpected": 0.049070587069709945, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.048163077443990274, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.04788607960519186, "goalProbability": 0.04702163487102113, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.08644447341707301, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 6, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 0.7687943108684516, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.256345973049201, "Current_PP_SOG60": 8.61244019138756, "Current_5v5_Min": 17.727777777777778, "Current_PP_Share": 0.24245939675174014, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.042592592592593, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.2226239580647933, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0050173142237073, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9117211340641708, "Position_Factor": 0.9807721620568941, "Input_GP": 6, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 418.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1724.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.712041884816754, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 12.733333333333333, "Prior_PP_Share": 0, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9131859898857464, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.34640522875817, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9131859898857464, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9117211340641708, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 2.6494940202391906, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 13.382899628252789, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff latest reported chart; October 21 final lineup pending", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480843", "goalieName": "Lukas Dostal", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8484148", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480843", "goalieName": "Lukas Dostal", "opponent": "PHI", "games": 5, "availableGames": 5, "shotsAgainst": 155.0, "goalsAgainst": 18.0, "savePct": 0.8838709677419355, "gaa": 3.646595385481148, "gsax": -2.507999999999999, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021082", "date": "20260318", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 28.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3704.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.611 }, { "gameId": "2025020670", "date": "20260106", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 38.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3560.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.171 }, { "gameId": "2024020568", "date": "20241228", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3472.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.781 }, { "gameId": "2023020208", "date": "20231110", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 35.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3450.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.281 }, { "gameId": "2023020117", "date": "20231028", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3584.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.648 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.7687943108684516, "adjustedSOG": 0.7687943108684516, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.7687943108684516, "adjustedSOG": 0.7687943108684516, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.06382797892231855, "goalHistoryGoals": 1.0, "goalHistoryShots": 6.0, "goalExpected": 0.049070587069709945, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.049070587069709945, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.04788607960519186, "goalProbability": 0.04788607960519186, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05765765765765766, "modelSOG": 0.7687943108684516, "historyGames": 7, "seasonGames": { "2025": 1, "2026": 6 }, "historyGoals": 1.0, "historyShots": 6.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.16666666666666666, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.06382797892231855, "goalieFactor": 0.9815060369171769, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": 39.24110807113543, "btb": { "id": "8484148", "name": "Oliver Bonk", "score": 39.24110807113543, "components": { "Goal model": 15.581395348837209, "SOG model": 16.74418604651163, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 33.02325581395349, "Goalie": 44.85294117647059, "Team H2H": 50.0, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Team H2H unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 0, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 363 } }, { "id": "8476374", "name": "Sean Kuraly", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "position": "C", "currentGP": 4, "currentSOG": 2.0, "priorSOG": 1.3414634146341464, "currentTOI": 12.741666666666667, "currentFiveTOI": 11.475, "ppShare": 0.0, "rate": 1.5538894299412402, "fifty": 1.849569884239854, "inputs": { "Player": "Sean Kuraly", "Player_ID": "8476374", "Team": "BOS", "Opponent": "SJS", "Position": "C", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.4853561327673608, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.765296028438217, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 4, "Prior_GP": 82, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 10.457516339869281, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.718768225825265, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 11.168963414634145, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 11.475, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.00931711568056663, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 959.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 3, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.950833333333334, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.013838246064561587, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.0, "Other_State_SOG": 0.15365853658536588, "Environment_Proxy": 1.0796680236682055, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.3414634146341464, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/boston-bruins/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:43.952473+00:00", "priorGP": 82, "currentTotalSOG": 8.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.0, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.00 SOG/game in 4 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 4 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.35200000000000004, "currentIXG": 0.08800000000000001, "priorTOI": 13.329268292682928, "priorPPTOI": 0.04085365853658537, "deploymentChange": -0.5876016260162604, "ppTOIChange": -0.04085365853658537, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021027", "date": "20260312", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 8.383333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020351", "date": "20251123", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 11.633333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020711", "date": "20250116", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 12.016666666666667 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 2.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "SJS", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 286.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 28.6, "mostAllowedRank": 10, "fiveSogAllowed60": 25.210423540502322, "pkSogAllowed60": 49.90958408679928, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 47.8, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 86.0, "C": 94.0, "R": 53.0, "L": 53.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.4, "L": 5.3, "R": 5.3, "D": 8.6 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 30.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 29.833333333333332, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 28.6, "oppPosSogAllowed": 9.4, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8477968", "team": "SJS", "name": "Alex Nedeljkovic", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 4, "savePct": 0.9173553719008265, "gaa": 2.372479240806643, "gsax": 4.638, "goalsAllowed": 10.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 14.638, "shotsAgainst": 121.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9618500831522029, "factor": 0.9618500831522029, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T16:06:01.887Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.08125044873727444, "goalHistoryGoals": 12.0, "goalHistoryShots": 206.0, "goalExpected": 0.16217454525662908, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.15598759984025937, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.14970722298402445, "goalProbability": 0.144430200492576, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.5277022491448458, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 4, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.995983379501385, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 10.457516339869281, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 11.475, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.950833333333334, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.0, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9930883597207428, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0259958714356598, "Position_Factor": 0.9935572564554559, "Input_GP": 4, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 959.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.718768225825265, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 10.454878048780488, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.00931711568056663, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9979916897506925, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.437908496732026, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9979916897506925, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0259958714356598, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 10.457516339869281, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021027", "date": "20260312", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 8.383333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020351", "date": "20251123", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 11.633333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020711", "date": "20250116", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 12.016666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020204", "date": "20241105", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 8.75 } ], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 142, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477968", "goalieName": "Alex Nedeljkovic", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8476374", "goals": 0, "sog": 5, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 2, "recordedAttempts": 6, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021027", "date": "20260312", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2 }, { "gameId": "2024021103", "date": "20250321", "season": 2024, "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 4 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477968", "goalieName": "Alex Nedeljkovic", "opponent": "BOS", "games": 5, "availableGames": 8, "shotsAgainst": 134.0, "goalsAgainst": 17.0, "savePct": 0.8731343283582089, "gaa": 3.7850207186591627, "gsax": -3.2609999999999997, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021027", "date": "20260312", "goalieTeam": "SJS", "opponent": "BOS", "shotsAgainst": 41.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.661 }, { "gameId": "2024020952", "date": "20250301", "goalieTeam": "PIT", "opponent": "BOS", "shotsAgainst": 25.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3474.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.566 }, { "gameId": "2023021279", "date": "20240413", "goalieTeam": "PIT", "opponent": "BOS", "shotsAgainst": 16.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 1895.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.22 }, { "gameId": "2023021012", "date": "20240309", "goalieTeam": "PIT", "opponent": "BOS", "shotsAgainst": 23.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.955 }, { "gameId": "2023020589", "date": "20240104", "goalieTeam": "PIT", "opponent": "BOS", "shotsAgainst": 29.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.337 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.995983379501385, "adjustedSOG": 1.995983379501385, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.995983379501385, "adjustedSOG": 1.995983379501385, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.08125044873727444, "goalHistoryGoals": 12.0, "goalHistoryShots": 206.0, "goalExpected": 0.16217454525662908, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.16217454525662908, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.14970722298402445, "goalProbability": 0.14970722298402445, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12862637313605982, "modelSOG": 1.995983379501385, "historyGames": 168, "seasonGames": { "2024": 82, "2025": 82, "2026": 4 }, "historyGoals": 12.0, "historyShots": 206.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.05825242718446602, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.08125044873727444, "goalieFactor": 0.9618500831522029, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8481122", "name": "Simon Benoit", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "ANA", "position": "D", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 0.7, "priorSOG": 0.821917808219178, "currentTOI": 14.355, "currentFiveTOI": 12.506666666666666, "ppShare": 0.0010496850944716584, "rate": 0.7394778266435833, "fifty": 0.7278890080828022, "inputs": { "Player": "Simon Benoit", "Player_ID": "8481122", "Team": "PHI", "Opponent": "ANA", "Position": "D", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 0.7833050287787975, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 0.564106581930832, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 10, "Prior_GP": 73, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.3582089552238807, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.02825469785048, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 13.31446118721461, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 12.506666666666666, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0010496850944716584, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.0014726169570645356, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 3.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2858.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 6, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.042592592592593, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.005932936205182309, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.0052931342819376405, "Other_State_SOG": 0.049315068493150684, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9949214190083264, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 0.821917808219178, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/philadelphia-flyers/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:43.984517+00:00", "priorGP": 73, "currentTotalSOG": 7.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.005, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.70 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. 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Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480843", "goalieName": "Lukas Dostal", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8481122", "goals": 0, "sog": 7, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 4, "recordedAttempts": 8, "log": [ { "gameId": "2024021176", "date": "20250330", "season": 2024, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2024020459", "date": "20241212", "season": 2024, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2 }, { "gameId": "2023020858", "date": "20240217", "season": 2023, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2023020588", "date": "20240103", "season": 2023, "goals": 0, "sog": 4, "attempts": 4 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480843", "goalieName": "Lukas Dostal", "opponent": "PHI", "games": 5, "availableGames": 5, "shotsAgainst": 155.0, "goalsAgainst": 18.0, "savePct": 0.8838709677419355, "gaa": 3.646595385481148, "gsax": -2.507999999999999, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021082", "date": "20260318", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 28.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3704.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.611 }, { "gameId": "2025020670", "date": "20260106", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 38.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3560.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.171 }, { "gameId": "2024020568", "date": "20241228", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3472.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.781 }, { "gameId": "2023020208", "date": "20231110", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 35.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3450.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.281 }, { "gameId": "2023020117", "date": "20231028", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3584.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.648 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.6392301929200225, "adjustedSOG": 0.6392301929200225, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.6392301929200225, "adjustedSOG": 0.6392301929200225, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.03153637231706667, "goalHistoryGoals": 1.0, "goalHistoryShots": 115.0, "goalExpected": 0.020159001360236184, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.020159001360236184, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.01995716722584552, "goalProbability": 0.01995716722584552, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05780320048169334, "modelSOG": 0.6392301929200225, "historyGames": 161, "seasonGames": { "2024": 78, "2025": 73, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 1.0, "historyShots": 115.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.008695652173913044, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.03153637231706667, "goalieFactor": 0.9815060369171769, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 32.52721093675306, "btb": { "id": "8481122", "name": "Simon Benoit", "score": 32.52721093675306, "components": { "Goal model": 3.255813953488372, "SOG model": 11.627906976744185, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 0.6976744186046512, "Goalie": 44.85294117647059, "Team H2H": 47.79932860872809, "Goalie H2H": 45.696919464014364 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": 7, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 426 } }, { "id": "8480876", "name": "Curtis Douglas", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "position": "C", "currentGP": 2, "currentSOG": 0.5, "priorSOG": 0.6744186046511628, "currentTOI": 6.866666666666666, "currentFiveTOI": 6.866666666666666, "ppShare": 0.0, "rate": 0.646476518786427, "fifty": 0.5879877612137625, "inputs": { "Player": "Curtis Douglas", "Player_ID": "8480876", "Team": "SEA", "Opponent": "MIN", "Position": "C", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 0.7530002370203217, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 0.683086056593628, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 2, "Prior_GP": 43, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.368932038834951, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.034682080924855, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 6.81829457364341, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 6.866666666666666, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.001027255596475962, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 393.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 2, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.085, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.00156707841242408, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.0, "Other_State_SOG": 0.0, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9620662188708584, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 0.6744186046511628, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/seattle-kraken/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:44.015948+00:00", "priorGP": 43, "currentTotalSOG": 1.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.0, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.50 SOG/game in 2 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 2 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.078, "currentIXG": 0.039, "priorTOI": 6.75, "priorPPTOI": 0.003875968992248062, "deploymentChange": 0.11666666666666625, "ppTOIChange": -0.003875968992248062, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021199", "date": "20260402", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 8.733333333333333 } ], "h2hGames": 1, "h2hAvailableGames": 1, "h2hSOG": 1.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "MIN", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 261.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 26.1, "mostAllowedRank": 21, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.40367597004765, "pkSogAllowed60": 45.30289727831431, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 40.4, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 77.0, "C": 114.0, "R": 29.0, "L": 41.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 11.4, "L": 4.1, "R": 2.9, "D": 7.7 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 24.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 28.333333333333332, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 26.1, "oppPosSogAllowed": 11.4, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8482661", "team": "MIN", "name": "Jesper Wallstedt", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 9, "savePct": 0.9152542372881356, "gaa": 2.1979363819525, "gsax": 6.934999999999999, "goalsAllowed": 20.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 26.935, "shotsAgainst": 236.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9495343259526882, "factor": 0.9495343259526882, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T18:37:27.914Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.10655590745133409, "goalHistoryGoals": 1.0, "goalHistoryShots": 30.0, "goalExpected": 0.058816056810308735, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.055847864858571516, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.057119810403572537, "goalProbability": 0.05431700343658444, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.28028069669880984, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 2, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 0.5519736842105262, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.368932038834951, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 6.866666666666666, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.085, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.0, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.957587153238364, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9748801923935355, "Position_Factor": 1.03255444646098, "Input_GP": 2, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 393.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.034682080924855, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 6.705426356589147, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.001027255596475962, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.1039473684210526, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.437908496732026, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.1039473684210526, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9748801923935355, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 4.368932038834951, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 1.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021199", "date": "20260402", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 8.733333333333333 } ], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 50, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482661", "goalieName": "Jesper Wallstedt", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8480876", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482661", "goalieName": "Jesper Wallstedt", "opponent": "SEA", "games": 2, "availableGames": 2, "shotsAgainst": 55.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "savePct": 0.9272727272727272, "gaa": 1.9647973802701597, "gsax": 2.874, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021240", "date": "20260407", "goalieTeam": "MIN", "opponent": "SEA", "shotsAgainst": 27.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.053 }, { "gameId": "2025020693", "date": "20260108", "goalieTeam": "MIN", "opponent": "SEA", "shotsAgainst": 28.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3729.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.821 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.5519736842105262, "adjustedSOG": 0.5519736842105262, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.5519736842105262, "adjustedSOG": 0.5519736842105262, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.10655590745133409, "goalHistoryGoals": 1.0, "goalHistoryShots": 30.0, "goalExpected": 0.058816056810308735, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.058816056810308735, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.057119810403572537, "goalProbability": 0.057119810403572537, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1285226796867343, "modelSOG": 0.5519736842105262, "historyGames": 45, "seasonGames": { "2025": 43, "2026": 2 }, "historyGoals": 1.0, "historyShots": 30.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.03333333333333333, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.10655590745133409, "goalieFactor": 0.9495343259526882, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8474590", "name": "John Carlson", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "UTA", "position": "D", "currentGP": 9, "currentSOG": 3.0, "priorSOG": 2.1690140845070425, "currentTOI": 19.700000000000003, "currentFiveTOI": 14.529629629629632, "ppShare": 0.7043596730245232, "rate": 1.8595791171722618, "fifty": 2.1768174319244085, "inputs": { "Player": "John Carlson", "Player_ID": "8474590", "Team": "TBL", "Opponent": "UTA", "Position": "D", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.9221091260698673, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 2.2038426290988955, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 9, "Prior_GP": 71, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 9.63548304868723, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.550202351127385, "Current_PP_SOG60": 8.704061895551257, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 4.475043029259897, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 15.286656233698489, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 14.529629629629632, "Current_PP_Share": 0.7043596730245232, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.46882534200967135, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2068.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2936.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 5, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.626018518518518, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 2.9315050380026197, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 3.2583808911090926, "Other_State_SOG": 0.36604068857589983, "Environment_Proxy": 0.85, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 2.1690140845070425, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:44.042982+00:00", "priorGP": 71.0, "currentTotalSOG": 27.0, "currentPPTOI": 3.82962962962963, "volumeNote": "Observed 3.00 SOG/game in 9 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 9 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.8880000000000001, "currentIXG": 0.20977777777777779, "priorTOI": 23.160328638497653, "priorPPTOI": 2.454929577464789, "deploymentChange": -3.46032863849765, "ppTOIChange": 1.3747000521648411, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021098", "date": "20260320", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 24.316666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020890", "date": "20250209", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 27.133333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020292", "date": "20241118", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 21.566666666666666 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 3, "h2hSOG": 3.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "UTA", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 225.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 22.5, "mostAllowedRank": 30, "fiveSogAllowed60": 21.06050814598143, "pkSogAllowed60": 53.47313237221494, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 35.6, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 58.0, "C": 87.0, "R": 52.0, "L": 28.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 8.7, "L": 2.8, "R": 5.2, "D": 5.8 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 22.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 20.25, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 22.5, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.8, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8478872", "team": "UTA", "name": "Karel Vejmelka", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 8, "savePct": 0.8793103448275862, "gaa": 2.8927833473635878, "gsax": -2.0919999999999987, "goalsAllowed": 21.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 18.908, "shotsAgainst": 174.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0222659253207917, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Likely starter per Daily Faceoff; no Model Goal adjustment until confirmed.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T17:11:59.953Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.061970497545204166, "goalHistoryGoals": 22.0, "goalHistoryShots": 348.0, "goalExpected": 0.16021062126219798, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.16021062126219798, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.14803567173441184, "goalProbability": 0.14803567173441184, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 9, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 2.5852724701029373, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 9.63548304868723, "Current_PP_SOG60": 8.704061895551257, "Current_5v5_Min": 14.529629629629632, "Current_PP_Share": 0.7043596730245232, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.626018518518518, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 3.2583808911090926, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.1111111111111111, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9114659361351877, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.05376529706562, "Position_Factor": 0.9944572953736655, "Input_GP": 9, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2068.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2936.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.550202351127385, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 4.475043029259897, "Prior_5v5_Min": 17.05305164319249, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.46882534200967135, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.8947508896797154, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.34640522875817, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.7614465023295937, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.25, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.15, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 8.899229315108332, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 8.858267716535433, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 3.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 2.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. 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excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478872", "goalieName": "Karel Vejmelka", "opponent": "TBL", "games": 5, "availableGames": 6, "shotsAgainst": 128.0, "goalsAgainst": 18.0, "savePct": 0.859375, "gaa": 4.0538004379105415, "gsax": -5.162, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020825", "date": "20260126", "goalieTeam": "UTA", "opponent": "TBL", "shotsAgainst": 29.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.389 }, { "gameId": "2025020194", "date": "20251102", "goalieTeam": "UTA", "opponent": "TBL", "shotsAgainst": 25.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3527.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.366 }, { "gameId": "2024021145", "date": "20250327", "goalieTeam": "UTA", "opponent": "TBL", "shotsAgainst": 12.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 1754.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.834 }, { "gameId": "2024021111", "date": "20250322", "goalieTeam": "UTA", "opponent": "TBL", "shotsAgainst": 27.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.77 }, { "gameId": "2022020582", "date": "20221231", "goalieTeam": "ARI", "opponent": "TBL", "shotsAgainst": 35.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3504.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.479 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 2.5852724701029373, "adjustedSOG": 2.5852724701029373, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 2.6380331327580993, "adjustedSOG": 2.5852724701029373, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.061970497545204166, "goalHistoryGoals": 22.0, "goalHistoryShots": 348.0, "goalExpected": 0.16348022577775304, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.16348022577775304, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.15081670922531856, "goalProbability": 0.15081670922531856, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05762782900251467, "modelSOG": 2.5852724701029373, "historyGames": 159, "seasonGames": { "2024": 79, "2025": 71, "2026": 9 }, "historyGoals": 22.0, "historyShots": 348.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.06321839080459771, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.061970497545204166, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 53.8479988042803, "btb": { "id": "8474590", "name": "John Carlson", "score": 53.8479988042803, "components": { "Goal model": 54.883720930232556, "SOG model": 89.06976744186046, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 66.04651162790698, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 45.4207672223338, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Likely", "h2hGames": 3, "goalieH2HShots": 11, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 159 } }, { "id": "8480043", "name": "Timothy Liljegren", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "position": "D", "currentGP": 9, "currentSOG": 0.5555555555555556, "priorSOG": 0.851063829787234, "currentTOI": 17.770370370370372, "currentFiveTOI": 15.285185185185185, "ppShare": 0.0007945967421533572, "rate": 0.7319752305317248, "fifty": 0.6475817329053556, "inputs": { "Player": "Timothy Liljegren", "Player_ID": "8480043", "Team": "WSH", "Opponent": "BUF", "Position": "D", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 0.7001319562609666, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 0.6911334020266626, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 9, "Prior_GP": 47, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.180760843227526, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 2.874902874902875, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 5.009276437847866, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 15.628565799842395, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 15.285185185185185, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0007945967421533572, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.17471605873334212, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2517.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 5, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.500555555555556, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.23839908738076132, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.003576126782324637, "Other_State_SOG": 0.0, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9496227273390297, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 0.851063829787234, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:44.069736+00:00", "priorGP": 47, "currentTotalSOG": 5.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.003703703703703704, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.56 SOG/game in 9 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 9 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.284, "currentIXG": 0.03155555555555555, "priorTOI": 19.851773049645388, "priorPPTOI": 0.7645390070921985, "deploymentChange": -2.0814026792750155, "ppTOIChange": -0.7608353033884948, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021028", "date": "20260312", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 15.833333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020974", "date": "20250304", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 17.35 }, { "gameId": "2024020331", "date": "20241123", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 20.716666666666665 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 3, "h2hSOG": 2.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "BUF", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 257.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 25.7, "mostAllowedRank": 24, "fiveSogAllowed60": 21.645723550871505, "pkSogAllowed60": 62.21198156682028, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 40.1, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 61.0, "L": 55.0, "D": 65.0, "C": 76.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.6, "L": 5.5, "R": 6.1, "D": 6.5 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 30.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.25, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 25.7, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.5, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8480045", "team": "BUF", "name": "Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 8, "savePct": 0.8629441624365483, "gaa": 3.5349310833909153, "gsax": -3.6580000000000013, "goalsAllowed": 27.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 23.342, "shotsAgainst": 197.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.035448902624297, "factor": 1.035448902624297, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T15:43:35.500Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.05574244523003475, "goalHistoryGoals": 8.0, "goalHistoryShots": 147.0, "goalExpected": 0.029184057488095244, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.030218600300172618, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.02876231555433376, "goalProbability": 0.02976658295121676, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.10042673968830018, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 9, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 0.5235517991300909, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.180760843227526, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 15.285185185185185, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0007945967421533572, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.500555555555556, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.003576126782324637, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.922717716387106, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.1429256259066152, "Position_Factor": 0.9922053498483736, "Input_GP": 9, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2517.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 2.874902874902875, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 5.009276437847866, "Prior_5v5_Min": 16.429787234042553, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.17471605873334212, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9423932384341638, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.34640522875817, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9423932384341638, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.1429256259066152, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 2.379064234734338, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 1.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021028", "date": "20260312", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 15.833333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020974", "date": "20250304", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 17.35 }, { "gameId": "2024020331", "date": "20241123", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 20.716666666666665 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "NHL.com October 20 game-specific projected lineup", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 63, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 5, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480045", "goalieName": "Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8480043", "goals": 1, "sog": 6, "shootingPct": 0.16666666666666666, "gamesWithAttempts": 3, "recordedAttempts": 9, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021028", "date": "20260312", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2 }, { "gameId": "2024020974", "date": "20250304", "season": 2024, "goals": 1, "sog": 4, "attempts": 6 }, { "gameId": "2022020276", "date": "20221119", "season": 2022, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480045", "goalieName": "Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen", "opponent": "WSH", "games": 5, "availableGames": 10, "shotsAgainst": 138.0, "goalsAgainst": 13.0, "savePct": 0.9057971014492754, "gaa": 2.5547246028713357, "gsax": 1.2270000000000003, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021028", "date": "20260312", "goalieTeam": "BUF", "opponent": "WSH", "shotsAgainst": 22.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3513.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.736 }, { "gameId": "2025020186", "date": "20251101", "goalieTeam": "BUF", "opponent": "WSH", "shotsAgainst": 34.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3868.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.692 }, { "gameId": "2024020637", "date": "20250106", "goalieTeam": "BUF", "opponent": "WSH", "shotsAgainst": 28.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3900.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.29 }, { "gameId": "2024020480", "date": "20241214", "goalieTeam": "BUF", "opponent": "WSH", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3438.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.234 }, { "gameId": "2023021255", "date": "20240411", "goalieTeam": "BUF", "opponent": "WSH", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.275 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.5235517991300909, "adjustedSOG": 0.5235517991300909, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.5235517991300909, "adjustedSOG": 0.5235517991300909, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.05574244523003475, "goalHistoryGoals": 8.0, "goalHistoryShots": 147.0, "goalExpected": 0.029184057488095244, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.030218600300172618, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.02876231555433376, "goalProbability": 0.02976658295121676, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.10042673968830018 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.057683839718185824, "modelSOG": 0.5235517991300909, "historyGames": 124, "seasonGames": { "2024": 68, "2025": 47, "2026": 9 }, "historyGoals": 8.0, "historyShots": 147.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.05442176870748299, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.05574244523003475, "goalieFactor": 1.035448902624297, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 32.76464181373284, "btb": { "id": "8480043", "name": "Timothy Liljegren", "score": 32.76464181373284, "components": { "Goal model": 6.976744186046512, "SOG model": 7.674418604651163, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 5.348837209302325, "Goalie": 7.794117647058823, "Team H2H": 61.29744928700542, "Goalie H2H": 54.7665916760405 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 3, "goalieH2HShots": 6, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 425 } }, { "id": "8477507", "name": "Nikita Zadorov", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "position": "D", "currentGP": 9, "currentSOG": 1.2222222222222223, "priorSOG": 1.3209876543209877, "currentTOI": 19.96851851851852, "currentFiveTOI": 17.188888888888886, "ppShare": 0.022660511959714646, "rate": 1.3853547458706768, "fifty": 1.4134993363222688, "inputs": { "Player": "Nikita Zadorov", "Player_ID": "8477507", "Team": "BOS", "Opponent": "SJS", "Position": "D", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.3569707556262518, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.4787895393894066, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 9, "Prior_GP": 81, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.266321913380737, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.970682416565858, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 17.237037037037034, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 17.188888888888886, "Current_PP_Share": 0.022660511959714646, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.016283349276754674, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 54.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2383.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 6, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.950833333333334, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.10271673708568763, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.11218841796055393, "Other_State_SOG": 0.14444444444444443, "Environment_Proxy": 1.0796680236682055, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.3209876543209877, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/boston-bruins/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:44.096088+00:00", "priorGP": 81, "currentTotalSOG": 11.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.1, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.22 SOG/game in 9 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 9 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.665, "currentIXG": 0.07388888888888889, "priorTOI": 20.88127572016461, "priorPPTOI": 0.07139917695473251, "deploymentChange": -0.912757201646091, "ppTOIChange": 0.028600823045267496, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2026020105", "date": "20261013", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 18.25 }, { "gameId": "2025021027", "date": "20260312", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 15.983333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020351", "date": "20251123", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 22.2 }, { "gameId": "2024021117", "date": "20250322", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 23.366666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020740", "date": "20250120", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 21.416666666666668 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 5, "h2hSOG": 1.6, "opponentDefense": { "team": "SJS", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 286.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 28.6, "mostAllowedRank": 10, "fiveSogAllowed60": 25.210423540502322, "pkSogAllowed60": 49.90958408679928, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 47.8, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 86.0, "C": 94.0, "R": 53.0, "L": 53.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.4, "L": 5.3, "R": 5.3, "D": 8.6 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 30.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 29.833333333333332, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 28.6, "oppPosSogAllowed": 8.6, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8477968", "team": "SJS", "name": "Alex Nedeljkovic", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 4, "savePct": 0.9173553719008265, "gaa": 2.372479240806643, "gsax": 4.638, "goalsAllowed": 10.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 14.638, "shotsAgainst": 121.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9618500831522029, "factor": 0.9618500831522029, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T16:06:01.887Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.03648051162908042, "goalHistoryGoals": 6.0, "goalHistoryShots": 223.0, "goalExpected": 0.048391492437669756, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.04654536102503185, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.047239284560096274, "goalProbability": 0.045478738474904246, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.17605460851920288, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 9, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.3265025701858442, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.266321913380737, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 17.188888888888886, "Current_PP_Share": 0.022660511959714646, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.950833333333334, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.11218841796055393, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9930883597207428, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0259958714356598, "Position_Factor": 1.0143476407933703, "Input_GP": 9, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 54.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2383.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.970682416565858, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 17.349382716049384, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.016283349276754674, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.085320284697509, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.34640522875817, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.085320284697509, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0259958714356598, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 4.266321913380737, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.5 }, { "season": "2026", "label": "2026–27", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 1.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2026020105", "date": "20261013", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 18.25 }, { "gameId": "2025021027", "date": "20260312", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 15.983333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020351", "date": "20251123", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 22.2 }, { "gameId": "2024021117", "date": "20250322", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 23.366666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020740", "date": "20250120", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 21.416666666666668 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 142, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477968", "goalieName": "Alex Nedeljkovic", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8477507", "goals": 0, "sog": 8, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 3, "recordedAttempts": 9, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021027", "date": "20260312", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 4, "attempts": 4 }, { "gameId": "2023020643", "date": "20240111", "season": 2023, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2023020025", "date": "20231014", "season": 2023, "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 4 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477968", "goalieName": "Alex Nedeljkovic", "opponent": "BOS", "games": 5, "availableGames": 8, "shotsAgainst": 134.0, "goalsAgainst": 17.0, "savePct": 0.8731343283582089, "gaa": 3.7850207186591627, "gsax": -3.2609999999999997, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021027", "date": "20260312", "goalieTeam": "SJS", "opponent": "BOS", "shotsAgainst": 41.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.661 }, { "gameId": "2024020952", "date": "20250301", "goalieTeam": "PIT", "opponent": "BOS", "shotsAgainst": 25.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3474.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.566 }, { "gameId": "2023021279", "date": "20240413", "goalieTeam": "PIT", "opponent": "BOS", "shotsAgainst": 16.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 1895.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.22 }, { "gameId": "2023021012", "date": "20240309", "goalieTeam": "PIT", "opponent": "BOS", "shotsAgainst": 23.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.955 }, { "gameId": "2023020589", "date": "20240104", "goalieTeam": "PIT", "opponent": "BOS", "shotsAgainst": 29.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.337 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.3265025701858442, "adjustedSOG": 1.3265025701858442, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.3265025701858442, "adjustedSOG": 1.3265025701858442, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.03648051162908042, "goalHistoryGoals": 6.0, "goalHistoryShots": 223.0, "goalExpected": 0.048391492437669756, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.048391492437669756, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.047239284560096274, "goalProbability": 0.047239284560096274, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05783205256192975, "modelSOG": 1.3265025701858442, "historyGames": 171, "seasonGames": { "2024": 81, "2025": 81, "2026": 9 }, "historyGoals": 6.0, "historyShots": 223.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.026905829596412557, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.03648051162908042, "goalieFactor": 0.9618500831522029, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 43.020827680147534, "btb": { "id": "8477507", "name": "Nikita Zadorov", "score": 43.020827680147534, "components": { "Goal model": 14.883720930232558, "SOG model": 49.06976744186046, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 18.372093023255815, "Goalie": 97.5, "Team H2H": 43.51610095735422, "Goalie H2H": 44.75970676079283 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 5, "goalieH2HShots": 8, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 304 } }, { "id": "8478975", "name": "Mason Marchment", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "BOS", "position": "L", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 2.1, "priorSOG": 1.75, "currentTOI": 15.928333333333333, "currentFiveTOI": 13.301666666666668, "ppShare": 0.34521979711035966, "rate": 1.7357036223562898, "fifty": 1.8816220852980257, "inputs": { "Player": "Mason Marchment", "Player_ID": "8478975", "Team": "SJS", "Opponent": "BOS", "Position": "L", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.7050290464450801, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.8292249501814186, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 10, "Prior_GP": 68, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 7.217140709184313, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.683955925826391, "Current_PP_SOG60": 16.028495102404275, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 7.072691552062868, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 13.688813725490196, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 13.301666666666668, "Current_PP_Share": 0.34521979711035966, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.5184315197619569, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1123.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3253.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 5, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.0425, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 2.0027968603701924, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 1.7407708269289888, "Other_State_SOG": 0.09264705882352942, "Environment_Proxy": 1.0253180054689388, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.75, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:44.121647+00:00", "priorGP": 68, "currentTotalSOG": 21.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.8716666666666666, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.10 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 2.31, "currentIXG": 0.231, "priorTOI": 17.371813725490195, "priorPPTOI": 2.2455882352941177, "deploymentChange": -1.4434803921568626, "ppTOIChange": -0.3739215686274511, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2026020105", "date": "20261013", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 16.65 }, { "gameId": "2025021278", "date": "20260412", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 22.6 }, { "gameId": "2025021170", "date": "20260329", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 14.983333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020918", "date": "20260226", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 18.533333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2024020262", "date": "20241114", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 15.85 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 6, "h2hSOG": 1.6, "opponentDefense": { "team": "BOS", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 280.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 28.0, "mostAllowedRank": 11, "fiveSogAllowed60": 26.539776154413243, "pkSogAllowed60": 48.89206576125804, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 42.4, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 68.0, "R": 50.0, "L": 68.0, "C": 94.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.4, "L": 6.8, "R": 5.0, "D": 6.8 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 26.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 25.0, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 28.0, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.8, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8480280", "team": "BOS", "name": "Jeremy Swayman", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 8, "savePct": 0.9279279279279279, "gaa": 1.976189659313137, "gsax": 7.695, "goalsAllowed": 16.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 23.695, "shotsAgainst": 222.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9412127550171275, "factor": 0.9412127550171275, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T14:59:19.712Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.15198362044304622, "goalHistoryGoals": 44.0, "goalHistoryShots": 274.0, "goalExpected": 0.34426126118649014, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.3240230900870073, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.2912562633706502, "goalProbability": 0.27676645733838245, "goalAdjustmentPP": -1.4489806032267738, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 2.265120808301164, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 7.217140709184313, "Current_PP_SOG60": 16.028495102404275, "Current_5v5_Min": 13.301666666666668, "Current_PP_Share": 0.34521979711035966, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.0425, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.7407708269289888, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0194233133624404, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.013580746919003, "Position_Factor": 1.0383288757723876, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1123.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3253.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.683955925826391, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 7.072691552062868, "Prior_5v5_Min": 14.592156862745098, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.5184315197619569, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.15, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.062091503267974, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.013580746919003, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 7.217140709184313, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 16.028495102404275, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 1.3333333333333333 }, { "season": "2026", "label": "2026–27", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 1.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2026020105", "date": "20261013", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 16.65 }, { "gameId": "2025021278", "date": "20260412", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 22.6 }, { "gameId": "2025021170", "date": "20260329", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 14.983333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020918", "date": "20260226", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 18.533333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2024020262", "date": "20241114", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 15.85 }, { "gameId": "2024020109", "date": "20241024", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 16.016666666666666 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Reviewed October22 projected lineup and coach reports", "ppAssignmentSourceDate": "2026-10-13T18:05:17.352Z", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 159, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 24, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480280", "goalieName": "Jeremy Swayman", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8478975", "goals": 2, "sog": 9, "shootingPct": 0.2222222222222222, "gamesWithAttempts": 6, "recordedAttempts": 16, "log": [ { "gameId": "2026020105", "date": "20261013", "season": 2026, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2 }, { "gameId": "2025021170", "date": "20260329", "season": 2025, "goals": 1, "sog": 1, "attempts": 4 }, { "gameId": "2024020262", "date": "20241114", "season": 2024, "goals": 1, "sog": 3, "attempts": 3 }, { "gameId": "2024020109", "date": "20241024", "season": 2024, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2023020867", "date": "20240219", "season": 2023, "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 4 }, { "gameId": "2023020178", "date": "20231106", "season": 2023, "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 2 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480280", "goalieName": "Jeremy Swayman", "opponent": "SJS", "games": 5, "availableGames": 6, "shotsAgainst": 123.0, "goalsAgainst": 9.0, "savePct": 0.926829268292683, "gaa": 2.2632020117351215, "gsax": 2.58, "log": [ { "gameId": "2026020105", "date": "20261013", "goalieTeam": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "shotsAgainst": 38.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.146 }, { "gameId": "2025021027", "date": "20260312", "goalieTeam": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "shotsAgainst": 28.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3406.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.91 }, { "gameId": "2025020351", "date": "20251123", "goalieTeam": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3588.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.577 }, { "gameId": "2023020340", "date": "20231130", "goalieTeam": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "shotsAgainst": 26.0, "goalsAgainst": 0.0, "seconds": 3574.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.886 }, { "gameId": "2022020748", "date": "20230122", "goalieTeam": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "shotsAgainst": 1.0, "goalsAgainst": 0.0, "seconds": 148.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 0.061 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 2.265120808301164, "adjustedSOG": 2.265120808301164, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 2.3113477635726163, "adjustedSOG": 2.265120808301164, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.15198362044304622, "goalHistoryGoals": 44.0, "goalHistoryShots": 274.0, "goalExpected": 0.3512870012107043, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.330635806211232, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.29621826134336177, "goalProbability": 0.28153321746169024, "goalAdjustmentPP": -1.4685043881671522 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12841874045699284, "modelSOG": 2.265120808301164, "historyGames": 140, "seasonGames": { "2024": 62, "2025": 68, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 44.0, "historyShots": 274.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.16058394160583941, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.15198362044304622, "goalieFactor": 0.9412127550171275, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 61.66555263659509, "btb": { "id": "8478975", "name": "Mason Marchment", "score": 61.66555263659509, "components": { "Goal model": 90.0, "SOG model": 81.86046511627907, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 71.3953488372093, "Goalie": 34.26470588235294, "Team H2H": 57.00065274151436, "Goalie H2H": 54.56425997597758 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 6, "goalieH2HShots": 9, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 70 } }, { "id": "8477426", "name": "Nick Paul", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "EDM", "position": "L", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 1.0, "priorSOG": 1.3333333333333333, "currentTOI": 16.1469696969697, "currentFiveTOI": 12.610606060606061, "ppShare": 0.1465543183869997, "rate": 1.294894267278438, "fifty": 1.1572173581934169, "inputs": { "Player": "Nick Paul", "Player_ID": "8477426", "Team": "TOR", "Opponent": "EDM", "Position": "L", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.1670611668073758, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.1445553466465264, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 11, "Prior_GP": 51, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.892827105610958, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.8127018299246505, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 6.197991391678623, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 12.288404634581106, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 12.610606060606061, "Current_PP_Share": 0.1465543183869997, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.22481677633338684, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 487.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3323.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 6, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.3053872053872055, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.7320581428089902, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.6309730872776314, "Other_State_SOG": 0.10641711229946525, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9716922687020597, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.3333333333333333, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/toronto-maple-leafs/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:44.146259+00:00", "priorGP": 51, "currentTotalSOG": 11.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.7378787878787879, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.00 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 3.061, "currentIXG": 0.2782727272727273, "priorTOI": 13.681045751633988, "priorPPTOI": 1.1388888888888888, "deploymentChange": 2.4659239453357102, "ppTOIChange": -0.40101010101010093, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021109", "date": "20260321", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 14.016666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020322", "date": "20251120", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 15.35 }, { "gameId": "2024020921", "date": "20250225", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 16.883333333333333 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 2.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "EDM", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 239.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 26.555555555555557, "mostAllowedRank": 18, "fiveSogAllowed60": 25.09786377362711, "pkSogAllowed60": 57.79388917659244, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 40.111111111111114, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 74.0, "C": 64.0, "L": 57.0, "R": 44.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.111111111111111, "L": 6.333333333333333, "R": 4.888888888888889, "D": 8.222222222222221 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 28.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 24.5, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 26.555555555555557, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.333333333333333, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8477465", "team": "EDM", "name": "Tristan Jarry", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 3, "savePct": 0.8732394366197183, "gaa": 2.974387221151198, "gsax": -2.739, "goalsAllowed": 9.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 6.261, "shotsAgainst": 71.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0280169850571896, "factor": 1.0280169850571896, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-23T18:50:20.460Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.13702277280962455, "goalHistoryGoals": 31.0, "goalHistoryShots": 220.0, "goalExpected": 0.1473517201707746, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.1514800711129504, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.13700960709731802, "goalProbability": 0.14056499031450423, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.3555383217186209, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.0753812461195833, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.892827105610958, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 12.610606060606061, "Current_PP_Share": 0.1465543183869997, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.3053872053872055, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.6309730872776314, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.18181818181818182, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9913228889134689, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0841268017286898, "Position_Factor": 1.0335314825443072, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 487.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3323.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.8127018299246505, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 6.197991391678623, "Prior_5v5_Min": 11.536601307189542, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.22481677633338684, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.1189562026434712, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.062091503267974, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.1189562026434712, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0841268017286898, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 3.892827105610958, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 3.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021109", "date": "20260321", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 14.016666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020322", "date": "20251120", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 15.35 }, { "gameId": "2024020921", "date": "20250225", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 16.883333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020453", "date": "20241210", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 19.45 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. 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Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477465", "goalieName": "Tristan Jarry", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8477426", "goals": 0, "sog": 10, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 5, "recordedAttempts": 13, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020428", "date": "20251204", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2 }, { "gameId": "2024020295", "date": "20241119", "season": 2024, "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 3 }, { "gameId": "2023020345", "date": "20231130", "season": 2023, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2 }, { "gameId": "2022020031", "date": "20221015", "season": 2022, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 3 }, { "gameId": "2021020707", "date": "20220120", "season": 2021, "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 3 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477465", "goalieName": "Tristan Jarry", "opponent": "TOR", "games": 5, "availableGames": 13, "shotsAgainst": 102.0, "goalsAgainst": 16.0, "savePct": 0.8431372549019608, "gaa": 4.100811618966254, "gsax": -2.944, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020499", "date": "20251213", "goalieTeam": "EDM", "opponent": "TOR", "shotsAgainst": 28.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.854 }, { "gameId": "2025020396", "date": "20251129", "goalieTeam": "PIT", "opponent": "TOR", "shotsAgainst": 13.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 2107.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.626 }, { "gameId": "2025020199", "date": "20251103", "goalieTeam": "PIT", "opponent": "TOR", "shotsAgainst": 20.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3452.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.296 }, { "gameId": "2024020433", "date": "20241207", "goalieTeam": "PIT", "opponent": "TOR", "shotsAgainst": 27.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3571.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.846 }, { "gameId": "2023020466", "date": "20231216", "goalieTeam": "PIT", "opponent": "TOR", "shotsAgainst": 14.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 1316.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.434 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.0753812461195833, "adjustedSOG": 1.0753812461195833, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.09732780216284, "adjustedSOG": 1.0753812461195833, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. 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Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.1340324593743203, "goalHistoryGoals": 22.0, "goalHistoryShots": 160.0, "goalExpected": 0.14380151338552802, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.14380151338552802, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.13394036775537924, "goalProbability": 0.13394036775537924, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12848439437323272, "modelSOG": 1.0514280180761781, "historyGames": 137, "seasonGames": { "2024": 77, "2025": 56, "2026": 4 }, "historyGoals": 22.0, "historyShots": 160.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.1375, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.1340324593743203, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8481534", "name": "Raphael Lavoie", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "CBJ", "position": "R", "currentGP": 7, "currentSOG": 1.1428571428571428, "priorSOG": 0, "currentTOI": 11.107142857142858, "currentFiveTOI": 11.035714285714286, "ppShare": 0.0, "rate": 0.09280838860497187, "fifty": 0.4974292666158382, "inputs": { "Player": "Raphael Lavoie", "Player_ID": "8481534", "Team": "VGK", "Opponent": "CBJ", "Position": "C", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 0.048202364277973045, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 0.24171040637940103, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 7, "Prior_GP": 1, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 6.213592233009709, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 0, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 10.295, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 11.035714285714286, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0, "Prior_PP_Share": 0, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2354.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 2, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.392708333333333, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.0, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.0, "Other_State_SOG": 0.0, "Environment_Proxy": 1.0241190783267258, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 0, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/vegas-golden-knights/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:44.248345+00:00", "priorGP": 1, "currentTotalSOG": 8.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.0, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.14 SOG/game in 7 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 7 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.924, "currentIXG": 0.132, "priorTOI": 8.566666666666666, "priorPPTOI": 0, "deploymentChange": 2.540476190476191, "ppTOIChange": 0.0, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2024020820", "date": "20250130", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 9.55 } ], "h2hGames": 1, "h2hAvailableGames": 1, "h2hSOG": 0.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "CBJ", "games": 8, "sogAllowedTotal": 222.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.75, "mostAllowedRank": 13, "fiveSogAllowed60": 26.021128266541208, "pkSogAllowed60": 45.718967636214664, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 43.125, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 66.0, "D": 61.0, "R": 49.0, "L": 46.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 8.25, "L": 5.75, "R": 6.125, "D": 7.625 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 28.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.666666666666668, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.75, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.125, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8475660", "team": "CBJ", "name": "Cam Talbot", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 4, "savePct": 0.8674698795180723, "gaa": 3.3959351685104195, "gsax": -0.8840000000000003, "goalsAllowed": 11.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 10.116, "shotsAgainst": 83.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0106708091071457, "factor": 1.0106708091071457, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T15:32:32.146Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.10891343111131108, "goalHistoryGoals": 0.0, "goalHistoryShots": 18.0, "goalExpected": 0.12946348445202208, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.13084496458095551, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.12143333082612034, "goalProbability": 0.12264621524077066, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.12128844146503115, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 7, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.188682452944748, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 6.213592233009709, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 11.035714285714286, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.392708333333333, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.0, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0080456056426796, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9827600403123256, "Position_Factor": 1.0129856632588874, "Input_GP": 7, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2354.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 8.566666666666666, "Prior_PP_Share": 0, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0613236187006678, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.382352941176471, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0613236187006678, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9827600403123256, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 6.213592233009709, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 0.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2024020820", "date": "20250130", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 9.55 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. 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The 60/40 zone comparison cannot be calculated; current sample: 1 attempts.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -4.8084621270978545, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478872", "goalieName": "Karel Vejmelka", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8482655", "goals": 0, "sog": 5, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 3, "recordedAttempts": 7, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020825", "date": "20260126", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2 }, { "gameId": "2025020194", "date": "20251102", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 4 }, { "gameId": "2024021111", "date": "20250322", "season": 2024, "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 1 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478872", "goalieName": "Karel Vejmelka", "opponent": "TBL", "games": 5, "availableGames": 6, "shotsAgainst": 128.0, "goalsAgainst": 18.0, "savePct": 0.859375, "gaa": 4.0538004379105415, "gsax": -5.162, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020825", "date": "20260126", "goalieTeam": "UTA", "opponent": "TBL", "shotsAgainst": 29.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.389 }, { "gameId": "2025020194", "date": "20251102", "goalieTeam": "UTA", "opponent": "TBL", "shotsAgainst": 25.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3527.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.366 }, { "gameId": "2024021145", "date": "20250327", "goalieTeam": "UTA", "opponent": "TBL", "shotsAgainst": 12.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 1754.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.834 }, { "gameId": "2024021111", "date": "20250322", "goalieTeam": "UTA", "opponent": "TBL", "shotsAgainst": 27.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.77 }, { "gameId": "2022020582", "date": "20221231", "goalieTeam": "ARI", "opponent": "TBL", "shotsAgainst": 35.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3504.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.479 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.7455164710993066, "adjustedSOG": 0.7455164710993066, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.7607310929584762, "adjustedSOG": 0.7455164710993066, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.05531363404777394, "goalHistoryGoals": 9.0, "goalHistoryShots": 167.0, "goalExpected": 0.042078801284668246, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.042078801284668246, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.04120577662101307, "goalProbability": 0.04120577662101307, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.057687402907556404, "modelSOG": 0.7455164710993066, "historyGames": 142, "seasonGames": { "2024": 54, "2025": 79, "2026": 9 }, "historyGoals": 9.0, "historyShots": 167.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.05389221556886228, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.05531363404777394, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 39.142501496317756, "btb": { "id": "8482655", "name": "J.J. Moser", "score": 39.142501496317756, "components": { "Goal model": 11.162790697674419, "SOG model": 15.116279069767442, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 35.81395348837209, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 50.484893696381945, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Likely", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": 5, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 364 } }, { "id": "8480830", "name": "Andrei Svechnikov", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "STL", "position": "R", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 3.272727272727273, "priorSOG": 2.569620253164557, "currentTOI": 17.687878787878788, "currentFiveTOI": 12.210606060606061, "ppShare": 0.7264691829909221, "rate": 2.7881215853097863, "fifty": 2.937290327789912, "inputs": { "Player": "Andrei Svechnikov", "Player_ID": "8480830", "Team": "CAR", "Opponent": "STL", "Position": "R", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 2.942180142577977, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 3.073211873219618, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 11, "Prior_GP": 79, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 9.827522025065145, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 8.072647465767586, "Current_PP_SOG60": 14.205853337717857, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 13.046495489243581, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 12.527107786728038, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 12.210606060606061, "Current_PP_Share": 0.7264691829909221, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.619221030519981, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 3041.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 4186.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 7, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 6.0017676767676775, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 4.166995712174796, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 4.360099260642739, "Other_State_SOG": 0.1890678941311853, "Environment_Proxy": 1.00049372648272, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 2.569620253164557, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:44.303644+00:00", "priorGP": 79, "currentTotalSOG": 36.0, "currentPPTOI": 4.607575757575757, "volumeNote": "Observed 3.27 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 6.0729999999999995, "currentIXG": 0.5520909090909091, "priorTOI": 16.985021097046413, "priorPPTOI": 2.7360759493670885, "deploymentChange": 0.7028576908323743, "ppTOIChange": 1.871499808208669, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021033", "date": "20260312", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "STL", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 19.633333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020730", "date": "20260113", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "STL", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 17.4 }, { "gameId": "2024020284", "date": "20241117", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "STL", "venue": "home", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 17.766666666666666 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 2.6666666666666665, "opponentDefense": { "team": "STL", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 246.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.333333333333332, "mostAllowedRank": 15, "fiveSogAllowed60": 24.991224991224993, "pkSogAllowed60": 45.92737978410206, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 41.333333333333336, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 29.0, "L": 56.0, "D": 69.0, "C": 92.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.222222222222221, "L": 6.222222222222222, "R": 3.2222222222222223, "D": 7.666666666666667 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 27.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 3, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27.666666666666668, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.333333333333332, "oppPosSogAllowed": 3.2222222222222223, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8480981", "team": "STL", "name": "Joel Hofer", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 6, "savePct": 0.9192546583850931, "gaa": 2.1949160491511117, "gsax": 2.83, "goalsAllowed": 13.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 15.83, "shotsAgainst": 161.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9785370006226618, "factor": 0.9785370006226618, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T15:44:23.131Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.13457976755957954, "goalHistoryGoals": 57.0, "goalHistoryShots": 419.0, "goalExpected": 0.3819990042954001, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.3738001599040641, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.3175042672308077, "goalProbability": 0.3118855890604989, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.5618678170308811, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 2.838457899151045, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 9.827522025065145, "Current_PP_SOG60": 14.205853337717857, "Current_5v5_Min": 12.210606060606061, "Current_PP_Share": 0.7264691829909221, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 6.0017676767676775, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 4.360099260642739, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.18181818181818182, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9895702550696535, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9828075032932179, "Position_Factor": 0.952219112355058, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 3041.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 4186.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 8.072647465767586, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 13.046495489243581, "Prior_5v5_Min": 13.265611814345991, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.619221030519981, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.85, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.382352941176471, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9828075032932179, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 9.827522025065145, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 14.205853337717857, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 6.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021033", "date": "20260312", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "STL", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 19.633333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020730", "date": "20260113", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "STL", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 17.4 }, { "gameId": "2024020284", "date": "20241117", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "STL", "venue": "home", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 17.766666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020084", "date": "20241019", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "STL", "venue": "away", "sog": 8.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 9.0, "toi": 19.633333333333333 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Reviewed October22 projected lineup and coach reports", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 225, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 70, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480981", "goalieName": "Joel Hofer", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8480830", "goals": 2, "sog": 16, "shootingPct": 0.125, "gamesWithAttempts": 4, "recordedAttempts": 20, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020730", "date": "20260113", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 4 }, { "gameId": "2024020284", "date": "20241117", "season": 2024, "goals": 1, "sog": 5, "attempts": 7 }, { "gameId": "2024020084", "date": "20241019", "season": 2024, "goals": 1, "sog": 8, "attempts": 8 }, { "gameId": "2021020216", "date": "20211113", "season": 2021, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480981", "goalieName": "Joel Hofer", "opponent": "CAR", "games": 4, "availableGames": 4, "shotsAgainst": 121.0, "goalsAgainst": 10.0, "savePct": 0.9173553719008265, "gaa": 2.5300442757748263, "gsax": 1.0949999999999998, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020730", "date": "20260113", "goalieTeam": "STL", "opponent": "CAR", "shotsAgainst": 33.0, "goalsAgainst": 0.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.698 }, { "gameId": "2024020284", "date": "20241117", "goalieTeam": "STL", "opponent": "CAR", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.293 }, { "gameId": "2024020084", "date": "20241019", "goalieTeam": "STL", "opponent": "CAR", "shotsAgainst": 40.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.792 }, { "gameId": "2021020216", "date": "20211113", "goalieTeam": "STL", "opponent": "CAR", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3429.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.312 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 2.838457899151045, "adjustedSOG": 2.838457899151045, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 2.8963856113786175, "adjustedSOG": 2.838457899151045, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. 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Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476434", "goalieName": "John Gibson", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8484768", "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 3, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021063", "date": "20260316", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 3 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476434", "goalieName": "John Gibson", "opponent": "CGY", "games": 5, "availableGames": 25, "shotsAgainst": 152.0, "goalsAgainst": 14.0, "savePct": 0.9078947368421053, "gaa": 2.9964328180737216, "gsax": 0.16800000000000015, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021063", "date": "20260316", "goalieTeam": "DET", "opponent": "CGY", "shotsAgainst": 27.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3589.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.703 }, { "gameId": "2025020477", "date": "20251210", "goalieTeam": "DET", "opponent": "CGY", "shotsAgainst": 37.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.965 }, { "gameId": "2024021203", "date": "20250403", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "CGY", "shotsAgainst": 26.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 2381.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.555 }, { "gameId": "2024020818", "date": "20250130", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "CGY", "shotsAgainst": 29.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3525.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.091 }, { "gameId": "2024020648", "date": "20250107", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "CGY", "shotsAgainst": 33.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3725.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.854 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.8749693320277467, "adjustedSOG": 1.8749693320277467, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.8749693320277467, "adjustedSOG": 1.8749693320277467, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. 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Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480280", "goalieName": "Jeremy Swayman", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8480891", "goals": 1, "sog": 2, "shootingPct": 0.5, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 3, "log": [ { "gameId": "2024020086", "date": "20241019", "season": 2024, "goals": 1, "sog": 2, "attempts": 3 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480280", "goalieName": "Jeremy Swayman", "opponent": "SJS", "games": 5, "availableGames": 6, "shotsAgainst": 123.0, "goalsAgainst": 9.0, "savePct": 0.926829268292683, "gaa": 2.2632020117351215, "gsax": 2.58, "log": [ { "gameId": "2026020105", "date": "20261013", "goalieTeam": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "shotsAgainst": 38.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.146 }, { "gameId": "2025021027", "date": "20260312", "goalieTeam": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "shotsAgainst": 28.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3406.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.91 }, { "gameId": "2025020351", "date": "20251123", "goalieTeam": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3588.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.577 }, { "gameId": "2023020340", "date": "20231130", "goalieTeam": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "shotsAgainst": 26.0, "goalsAgainst": 0.0, "seconds": 3574.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.886 }, { "gameId": "2022020748", "date": "20230122", "goalieTeam": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "shotsAgainst": 1.0, "goalsAgainst": 0.0, "seconds": 148.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 0.061 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.947199644128114, "adjustedSOG": 0.947199644128114, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.9665302491103204, "adjustedSOG": 0.947199644128114, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.04176014027487687, "goalHistoryGoals": 7.0, "goalHistoryShots": 206.0, "goalExpected": 0.040362438782758664, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.037989642205930436, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.03955872510456451, "goalProbability": 0.03727708747476864, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.22816376297958713 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05778602924112323, "modelSOG": 0.947199644128114, "historyGames": 126, "seasonGames": { "2024": 82, "2025": 34, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 7.0, "historyShots": 206.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.03398058252427184, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.04176014027487687, "goalieFactor": 0.9412127550171275, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 37.5171440738976, "btb": { "id": "8480891", "name": "Michael Kesselring", "score": 37.5171440738976, "components": { "Goal model": 10.232558139534884, "SOG model": 24.651162790697676, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 7.674418604651163, "Goalie": 34.26470588235294, "Team H2H": 65.70931244560488, "Goalie H2H": 51.87764990914597 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 5, "goalieH2HShots": 2, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 385 } }, { "id": "8480246", "name": "Nick Perbix", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "PIT", "position": "D", "currentGP": 8, "currentSOG": 0.375, "priorSOG": 1, "currentTOI": 18.172916666666666, "currentFiveTOI": 14.354166666666666, "ppShare": 0.014388489208633094, "rate": 0.92565199201083, "fifty": 0.7548397920161358, "inputs": { "Player": "Nick Perbix", "Player_ID": "8480246", "Team": "NSH", "Opponent": "PIT", "Position": "D", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 0.8681812438539971, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 0.7823818737580348, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 8, "Prior_GP": 79, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 1.567489114658926, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.3462657613967024, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 9.254498714652957, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 14.74614451476793, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 14.354166666666666, "Current_PP_Share": 0.014388489208633094, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.020323965203189957, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 38.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2641.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 5, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.906041666666667, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.07932643534017637, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.07059052757793766, "Other_State_SOG": 0.10253164556962026, "Environment_Proxy": 1.0227478110844896, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/nashville-predators/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:44.381250+00:00", "priorGP": 79, "currentTotalSOG": 3.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.07916666666666666, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.38 SOG/game in 8 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 8 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.42, "currentIXG": 0.0525, "priorTOI": 19.112025316455696, "priorPPTOI": 0.08206751054852321, "deploymentChange": -0.9391086497890306, "ppTOIChange": -0.0029008438818565463, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020296", "date": "20251116", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "PIT", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 17.816666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020281", "date": "20251114", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "PIT", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 18.183333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024021131", "date": "20250325", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "PIT", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 16.766666666666666 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 1.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "PIT", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 279.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.9, "mostAllowedRank": 12, "fiveSogAllowed60": 26.122338261223383, "pkSogAllowed60": 50.11600928074246, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 42.4, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 55.0, "L": 47.0, "D": 70.0, "C": 107.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.7, "L": 4.7, "R": 5.5, "D": 7.0 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 25.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 3, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 28.333333333333332, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.9, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.0, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8481668", "team": "PIT", "name": "Arturs Silovs", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 6, "savePct": 0.8662420382165605, "gaa": 3.5131744040150563, "gsax": -1.0760000000000005, "goalsAllowed": 21.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 19.924, "shotsAgainst": 157.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0136052553954562, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Likely starter per Daily Faceoff; no Model Goal adjustment until confirmed.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T15:01:09.604Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.059541129256542376, "goalHistoryGoals": 9.0, "goalHistoryShots": 148.0, "goalExpected": 0.02136547872727118, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.02136547872727118, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.021138853739957945, "goalProbability": 0.021138853739957945, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 8, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 0.35883563167259785, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 1.567489114658926, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 14.354166666666666, "Current_PP_Share": 0.014388489208633094, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.906041666666667, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.07059052757793766, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.011083778612368, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0249142728068137, "Position_Factor": 0.9912682240844909, "Input_GP": 8, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 38.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2641.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.3462657613967024, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 9.254498714652957, "Prior_5v5_Min": 15.660759493670886, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.020323965203189957, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9764234875444839, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.34640522875817, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9764234875444839, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0249142728068137, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 1.567489114658926, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020296", "date": "20251116", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "PIT", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 17.816666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020281", "date": "20251114", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "PIT", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 18.183333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024021131", "date": "20250325", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "PIT", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 16.766666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020686", "date": "20250112", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "PIT", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 16.85 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 104, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481668", "goalieName": "Arturs Silovs", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8480246", "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 1, "log": [ { "gameId": "2024020048", "date": "20241015", "season": 2024, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481668", "goalieName": "Arturs Silovs", "opponent": "NSH", "games": 2, "availableGames": 2, "shotsAgainst": 62.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "savePct": 0.9193548387096774, "gaa": 2.397123451857771, "gsax": 1.6559999999999997, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020281", "date": "20251114", "goalieTeam": "PIT", "opponent": "NSH", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3644.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.231 }, { "gameId": "2022021010", "date": "20230306", "goalieTeam": "VAN", "opponent": "NSH", "shotsAgainst": 32.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3865.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.425 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.35883563167259785, "adjustedSOG": 0.35883563167259785, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.3661588078291815, "adjustedSOG": 0.35883563167259785, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.059541129256542376, "goalHistoryGoals": 9.0, "goalHistoryShots": 148.0, "goalExpected": 0.021801508905378755, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.021801508905378755, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.021565573701753073, "goalProbability": 0.021565573701753073, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.057662000556225085, "modelSOG": 0.35883563167259785, "historyGames": 161, "seasonGames": { "2024": 74, "2025": 79, "2026": 8 }, "historyGoals": 9.0, "historyShots": 148.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.060810810810810814, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.059541129256542376, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 35.37914089674974, "btb": { "id": "8480246", "name": "Nick Perbix", "score": 35.37914089674974, "components": { "Goal model": 3.488372093023256, "SOG model": 3.7209302325581395, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 15.813953488372093, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 52.760164117866466, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Likely", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": 1, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 406 } }, { "id": "8476459", "name": "Mika Zibanejad", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "OTT", "position": "C", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 1.7272727272727273, "priorSOG": 2.654320987654321, "currentTOI": 20.774242424242427, "currentFiveTOI": 15.046969696969699, "ppShare": 0.7465145754119138, "rate": 2.568832129151293, "fifty": 2.2618037694222086, "inputs": { "Player": "Mika Zibanejad", "Player_ID": "8476459", "Team": "NYR", "Opponent": "OTT", "Position": "C", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 2.3433708531822903, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 2.2004512122674633, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 11, "Prior_GP": 81, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.987513845534186, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 7.112743665734441, "Current_PP_SOG60": 10.69609507640068, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 12.592397043294614, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 14.96936026936027, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 15.046969696969699, "Current_PP_Share": 0.7465145754119138, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.8508748753783164, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2356.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3156.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 7, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.145909090909091, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 4.0026047250064405, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 3.841496140108308, "Other_State_SOG": 0.20909090909090908, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9343896732646498, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 2.654320987654321, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-york-rangers/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:44.405032+00:00", "priorGP": 81, "currentTotalSOG": 19.0, "currentPPTOI": 3.56969696969697, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.73 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 3.432, "currentIXG": 0.312, "priorTOI": 20.89753086419753, "priorPPTOI": 3.117695473251029, "deploymentChange": -0.12328843995510397, "ppTOIChange": 0.4520014964459409, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021119", "date": "20260323", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 21.8 }, { "gameId": "2025020737", "date": "20260114", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "home", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 20.233333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020427", "date": "20251204", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "away", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 9.0, "toi": 19.766666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024021003", "date": "20250308", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 19.316666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020750", "date": "20250121", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 17.283333333333335 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 6, "h2hSOG": 3.4, "opponentDefense": { "team": "OTT", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 255.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 25.5, "mostAllowedRank": 25, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.477120373069077, "pkSogAllowed60": 46.82395644283122, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 38.7, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 67.0, "C": 98.0, "R": 48.0, "L": 42.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.8, "L": 4.2, "R": 4.8, "D": 6.7 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 24.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 22.6, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 25.5, "oppPosSogAllowed": 9.8, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8477992", "team": "OTT", "name": "Jonas Johansson", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 0, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "goalsAllowed": null, "xGoalsAgainst": null, "shotsAgainst": null, "scenarioFactor": 1, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; no matching goalie statistics in this snapshot, so the goalie factor remains neutral.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T15:15:50.280Z", "idResolution": "Exact goalie name mapped to one unique MoneyPuck player ID" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.1331674346255044, "goalHistoryGoals": 56.0, "goalHistoryShots": 417.0, "goalExpected": 0.23352827728730632, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.23352827728730632, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.20826479270022064, "goalProbability": 0.20826479270022064, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.7536440342493516, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.987513845534186, "Current_PP_SOG60": 10.69609507640068, "Current_5v5_Min": 15.046969696969699, "Current_PP_Share": 0.7465145754119138, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.145909090909091, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 3.841496140108308, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.09090909090909091, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9604171757553249, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9920036605974645, "Position_Factor": 1.0136284014991037, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2356.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3156.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 7.112743665734441, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 12.592397043294614, "Prior_5v5_Min": 14.78827160493827, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.8508748753783164, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0191828254847646, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.437908496732026, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0191828254847646, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9920036605974645, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 3.987513845534186, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 10.69609507640068, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 2.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 4.333333333333333 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021119", "date": "20260323", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 21.8 }, { "gameId": "2025020737", "date": "20260114", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "home", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 20.233333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020427", "date": "20251204", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "away", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 9.0, "toi": 19.766666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024021003", "date": "20250308", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 19.316666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020750", "date": "20250121", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 17.283333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2024020170", "date": "20241101", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 18.316666666666666 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 210, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 91, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477992", "goalieName": "Jonas Johansson", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8476459", "goals": 2, "sog": 4, "shootingPct": 0.5, "gamesWithAttempts": 2, "recordedAttempts": 7, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020391", "date": "20251129", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2 }, { "gameId": "2024021310", "date": "20250417", "season": 2024, "goals": 2, "sog": 3, "attempts": 5 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477992", "goalieName": "Jonas Johansson", "opponent": "NYR", "games": 4, "availableGames": 4, "shotsAgainst": 43.0, "goalsAgainst": 6.0, "savePct": 0.8604651162790697, "gaa": 2.615328732292045, "gsax": -1.567, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020391", "date": "20251129", "goalieTeam": "TBL", "opponent": "NYR", "shotsAgainst": 13.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.688 }, { "gameId": "2025020265", "date": "20251112", "goalieTeam": "TBL", "opponent": "NYR", "shotsAgainst": 7.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 993.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 0.748 }, { "gameId": "2024021310", "date": "20250417", "goalieTeam": "TBL", "opponent": "NYR", "shotsAgainst": 22.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3573.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.983 }, { "gameId": "2021020399", "date": "20211208", "goalieTeam": "COL", "opponent": "NYR", "shotsAgainst": 1.0, "goalsAgainst": 0.0, "seconds": 93.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 0.014 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.7536440342493516, "adjustedSOG": 1.7536440342493516, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.7894326880095424, "adjustedSOG": 1.7536440342493516, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.1331674346255044, "goalHistoryGoals": 56.0, "goalHistoryShots": 417.0, "goalExpected": 0.23829416049725136, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.23829416049725136, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.21202913290337377, "goalProbability": 0.21202913290337377, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12847563701385784, "modelSOG": 1.7536440342493516, "historyGames": 174, "seasonGames": { "2024": 82, "2025": 81, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 56.0, "historyShots": 417.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.1342925659472422, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.1331674346255044, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 61.52553661424495, "btb": { "id": "8476459", "name": "Mika Zibanejad", "score": 61.52553661424495, "components": { "Goal model": 75.11627906976744, "SOG model": 66.97674418604652, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 86.04651162790698, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 63.65861618798956, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 6, "goalieH2HShots": 4, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 73 } }, { "id": "8482146", "name": "Luke Evangelista", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "LAK", "position": "R", "currentGP": 6, "currentSOG": 3.0, "priorSOG": 2.1728395061728394, "currentTOI": 17.158333333333335, "currentFiveTOI": 12.71111111111111, "ppShare": 0.6506506506506506, "rate": 2.25485146875598, "fifty": 2.4910387132955463, "inputs": { "Player": "Luke Evangelista", "Player_ID": "8482146", "Team": "NJD", "Opponent": "LAK", "Position": "R", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 2.335179376352648, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 2.488219363773466, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 6, "Prior_GP": 81, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 10.227272727272727, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 7.075722645859195, "Current_PP_SOG60": 11.076923076923077, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 9.906633906633907, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 13.074814814814813, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 12.71111111111111, "Current_PP_Share": 0.6506506506506506, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.5184839674205518, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1300.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1998.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 4, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.972354497354498, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 3.03811180844151, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 3.235265688969393, "Other_State_SOG": 0.17222222222222222, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9908219918860978, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 2.1728395061728394, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-jersey-devils/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:44.428631+00:00", "priorGP": 81, "currentTotalSOG": 18.0, "currentPPTOI": 3.611111111111111, "volumeNote": "Observed 3.00 SOG/game in 6 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 6 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 2.031, "currentIXG": 0.3385, "priorTOI": 16.622427983539097, "priorPPTOI": 2.093621399176955, "deploymentChange": 0.5359053497942377, "ppTOIChange": 1.5174897119341564, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021232", "date": "20260406", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 16.683333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025021204", "date": "20260402", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 10.833333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020137", "date": "20251025", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 9.733333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020528", "date": "20241221", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 13.383333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020192", "date": "20241104", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 12.683333333333334 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 5, "h2hSOG": 1.4, "opponentDefense": { "team": "LAK", "games": 7, "sogAllowedTotal": 193.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.571428571428573, "mostAllowedRank": 14, "fiveSogAllowed60": 25.227874154660395, "pkSogAllowed60": 57.61396702230844, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 39.142857142857146, "positionUnassignedSOG": 1.0, "positionTotals": { "C": 86.0, "D": 47.0, "R": 28.0, "L": 31.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 12.285714285714286, "L": 4.428571428571429, "R": 4.0, "D": 6.714285714285714 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 27.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 29.5, "positionSourceDifference": 1.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.571428571428573, "oppPosSogAllowed": 4.0, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8476341", "team": "LAK", "name": "Anton Forsberg", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 3, "savePct": 0.8833333333333333, "gaa": 2.6313041662315966, "gsax": -2.1049999999999995, "goalsAllowed": 7.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.8950000000000005, "shotsAgainst": 60.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0218332511814823, "factor": 1.0218332511814823, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T19:00:24.293Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.08846972562576429, "goalHistoryGoals": 25.0, "goalHistoryShots": 328.0, "goalExpected": 0.24354237825836317, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.2488597001762136, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.21615374271080673, "goalProbability": 0.2203106440094056, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.41569012985988585, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 6, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 2.752832978012971, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 10.227272727272727, "Current_PP_SOG60": 11.076923076923077, "Current_5v5_Min": 12.71111111111111, "Current_PP_Share": 0.6506506506506506, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.972354497354498, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 3.235265688969393, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.16666666666666666, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9946407827573338, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.085978140946376, "Position_Factor": 0.9726288799729524, "Input_GP": 6, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1300.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1998.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 7.075722645859195, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 9.906633906633907, "Prior_5v5_Min": 13.923456790123456, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.5184839674205518, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.8942462230793957, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.382352941176471, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.8942462230793957, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.085978140946376, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 10.227272727272727, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 11.076923076923077, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 1.3333333333333333 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021232", "date": "20260406", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 16.683333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025021204", "date": "20260402", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 10.833333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020137", "date": "20251025", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 9.733333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020528", "date": "20241221", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 13.383333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020192", "date": "20241104", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 12.683333333333334 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 196, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 38, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. 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excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478872", "goalieName": "Karel Vejmelka", "opponent": "TBL", "games": 5, "availableGames": 6, "shotsAgainst": 128.0, "goalsAgainst": 18.0, "savePct": 0.859375, "gaa": 4.0538004379105415, "gsax": -5.162, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020825", "date": "20260126", "goalieTeam": "UTA", "opponent": "TBL", "shotsAgainst": 29.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.389 }, { "gameId": "2025020194", "date": "20251102", "goalieTeam": "UTA", "opponent": "TBL", "shotsAgainst": 25.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3527.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.366 }, { "gameId": "2024021145", "date": "20250327", "goalieTeam": "UTA", "opponent": "TBL", "shotsAgainst": 12.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 1754.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.834 }, { "gameId": "2024021111", "date": "20250322", "goalieTeam": "UTA", "opponent": "TBL", "shotsAgainst": 27.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.77 }, { "gameId": "2022020582", "date": "20221231", "goalieTeam": "ARI", "opponent": "TBL", "shotsAgainst": 35.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3504.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.479 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.5646928152437176, "adjustedSOG": 1.5646928152437176, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.596625321677263, "adjustedSOG": 1.5646928152437176, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.1689563250650486, "goalHistoryGoals": 61.0, "goalHistoryShots": 337.0, "goalExpected": 0.26975994685639143, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.26975994685639143, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.23643723201893782, "goalProbability": 0.23643723201893782, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12833914053426249, "modelSOG": 1.5646928152437176, "historyGames": 149, "seasonGames": { "2024": 77, "2025": 63, "2026": 9 }, "historyGoals": 61.0, "historyShots": 337.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.18100890207715134, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.1689563250650486, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 61.56306720785439, "btb": { "id": "8478010", "name": "Brayden Point", "score": 61.56306720785439, "components": { "Goal model": 79.06976744186046, "SOG model": 59.06976744186046, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 89.53488372093024, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 58.9475798353083, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Likely", "h2hGames": 3, "goalieH2HShots": 12, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 72 } }, { "id": "8478483", "name": "Mitch Marner", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "CBJ", "position": "R", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 2.5454545454545454, "priorSOG": 2.037037037037037, "currentTOI": 19.71060606060606, "currentFiveTOI": 13.72121212121212, "ppShare": 0.7293992557150452, "rate": 2.146384287501152, "fifty": 2.22896504181278, "inputs": { "Player": "Mitch Marner", "Player_ID": "8478483", "Team": "VGK", "Opponent": "CBJ", "Position": "R", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 2.420835753025914, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 2.6222404047702916, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 11, "Prior_GP": 81, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 6.757950530035336, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.813293763365775, "Current_PP_SOG60": 9.183673469387756, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 8.177416462430509, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 13.847996632996633, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 13.72121212121212, "Current_PP_Share": 0.7293992557150452, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.7538159591299687, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2744.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3762.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 6, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.392708333333333, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 3.9729390926151105, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 3.9334374446216547, "Other_State_SOG": 0.20303030303030303, "Environment_Proxy": 1.0241190783267258, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 2.037037037037037, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/vegas-golden-knights/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:44.478467+00:00", "priorGP": 81, "currentTotalSOG": 28.0, "currentPPTOI": 4.157575757575757, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.55 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 3.023, "currentIXG": 0.27481818181818185, "priorTOI": 19.95761316872428, "priorPPTOI": 3.4421810699588478, "deploymentChange": -0.24700710811821835, "ppTOIChange": 0.7153946876169095, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020692", "date": "20260108", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 17.666666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2025020502", "date": "20251213", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 16.766666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024021216", "date": "20250405", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 17.316666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020757", "date": "20250122", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 20.566666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020097", "date": "20241022", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "away", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 10.0, "toi": 19.333333333333332 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 5, "h2hSOG": 2.4, "opponentDefense": { "team": "CBJ", "games": 8, "sogAllowedTotal": 222.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.75, "mostAllowedRank": 13, "fiveSogAllowed60": 26.021128266541208, "pkSogAllowed60": 45.718967636214664, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 43.125, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 66.0, "D": 61.0, "R": 49.0, "L": 46.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 8.25, "L": 5.75, "R": 6.125, "D": 7.625 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 28.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.666666666666668, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.75, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.125, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8475660", "team": "CBJ", "name": "Cam Talbot", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 4, "savePct": 0.8674698795180723, "gaa": 3.3959351685104195, "gsax": -0.8840000000000003, "goalsAllowed": 11.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 10.116, "shotsAgainst": 83.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0106708091071457, "factor": 1.0106708091071457, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T15:32:32.146Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.1412969726114051, "goalHistoryGoals": 53.0, "goalHistoryShots": 366.0, "goalExpected": 0.35940725660995526, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.363242422836963, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.30191000831163106, "goalProbability": 0.3045821720997173, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.26721637880862126, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 2.5436302701148246, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 6.757950530035336, "Current_PP_SOG60": 9.183673469387756, "Current_5v5_Min": 13.72121212121212, "Current_PP_Share": 0.7293992557150452, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.392708333333333, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 3.9334374446216547, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.36363636363636365, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0080456056426796, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9827600403123256, "Position_Factor": 1.0129856632588874, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2744.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3762.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.813293763365775, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 8.177416462430509, "Prior_5v5_Min": 14.143827160493828, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.7538159591299687, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0613236187006678, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.382352941176471, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0613236187006678, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9827600403123256, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 6.757950530035336, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 9.183673469387756, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 3.3333333333333335 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020692", "date": "20260108", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 17.666666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2025020502", "date": "20251213", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 16.766666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024021216", "date": "20250405", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 17.316666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020757", "date": "20250122", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 20.566666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020097", "date": "20241022", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "away", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 10.0, "toi": 19.333333333333332 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 175, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 52, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475660", "goalieName": "Cam Talbot", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8478483", "goals": 5, "sog": 13, "shootingPct": 0.38461538461538464, "gamesWithAttempts": 5, "recordedAttempts": 17, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020970", "date": "20260304", "season": 2025, "goals": 1, "sog": 1, "attempts": 4 }, { "gameId": "2024020559", "date": "20241227", "season": 2024, "goals": 3, "sog": 5, "attempts": 5 }, { "gameId": "2024020220", "date": "20241108", "season": 2024, "goals": 1, "sog": 3, "attempts": 4 }, { "gameId": "2023020585", "date": "20240102", "season": 2023, "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 3 }, { "gameId": "2023020139", "date": "20231031", "season": 2023, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475660", "goalieName": "Cam Talbot", "opponent": "VGK", "games": 5, "availableGames": 22, "shotsAgainst": 160.0, "goalsAgainst": 16.0, "savePct": 0.9, "gaa": 3.176704169424222, "gsax": 0.6329999999999996, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020970", "date": "20260304", "goalieTeam": "DET", "opponent": "VGK", "shotsAgainst": 25.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3728.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.397 }, { "gameId": "2024021115", "date": "20250322", "goalieTeam": "DET", "opponent": "VGK", "shotsAgainst": 35.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3491.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.784 }, { "gameId": "2023020544", "date": "20231228", "goalieTeam": "LAK", "opponent": "VGK", "shotsAgainst": 32.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3478.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.46 }, { "gameId": "2023020192", "date": "20231108", "goalieTeam": "LAK", "opponent": "VGK", "shotsAgainst": 38.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.55 }, { "gameId": "2023020125", "date": "20231028", "goalieTeam": "LAK", "opponent": "VGK", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3835.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.442 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 2.5436302701148246, "adjustedSOG": 2.5436302701148246, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 2.5955410919539026, "adjustedSOG": 2.5436302701148246, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.1412969726114051, "goalHistoryGoals": 53.0, "goalHistoryShots": 366.0, "goalExpected": 0.366742098581587, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.3706555335071051, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.3070116553230073, "goalProbability": 0.3097183204806889, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.27066651576816425 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12844389236914772, "modelSOG": 2.5436302701148246, "historyGames": 173, "seasonGames": { "2024": 81, "2025": 81, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 53.0, "historyShots": 366.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.1448087431693989, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.1412969726114051, "goalieFactor": 1.0106708091071457, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 58.72683007466502, "btb": { "id": "8478483", "name": "Mitch Marner", "score": 58.72683007466502, "components": { "Goal model": 91.62790697674419, "SOG model": 87.67441860465117, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 80.69767441860465, "Goalie": 13.088235294117647, "Team H2H": 37.59791122715404, "Goalie H2H": 59.99250093738283 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 5, "goalieH2HShots": 13, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 101 } }, { "id": "8478856", "name": "Conor Garland", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "VGK", "position": "C", "currentGP": 8, "currentSOG": 0.875, "priorSOG": 1.9295774647887325, "currentTOI": 12.664583333333333, "currentFiveTOI": 11.139583333333333, "ppShare": 0.25706099058534587, "rate": 1.53211214671893, "fifty": 1.3111433674457342, "inputs": { "Player": "Conor Garland", "Player_ID": "8478856", "Team": "CBJ", "Opponent": "VGK", "Position": "R", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.462098089882086, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.057586955902179, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 8, "Prior_GP": 71, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.039648400972508, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.981775951402537, "Current_PP_SOG60": 5.732484076433121, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 11.041642090362156, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 11.73925762910798, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 11.139583333333333, "Current_PP_Share": 0.25706099058534587, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.45940303262019705, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 628.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2443.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 4, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.052367424242425, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 1.287694874200561, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 1.0417055842915441, "Other_State_SOG": 0.22816901408450704, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9217353117054976, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.9295774647887325, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:44.502648+00:00", "priorGP": 71, "currentTotalSOG": 7.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.3083333333333333, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.88 SOG/game in 8 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 8 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.881, "currentIXG": 0.110125, "priorTOI": 17.191784037558683, "priorPPTOI": 1.989906103286385, "deploymentChange": -4.527200704225351, "ppTOIChange": -0.6815727699530516, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020901", "date": "20260204", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 18.0 }, { "gameId": "2024021305", "date": "20250416", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 14.683333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024021229", "date": "20250406", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 19.466666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2024020905", "date": "20250222", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 17.8 }, { "gameId": "2024020519", "date": "20241219", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 20.616666666666667 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 5, "h2hSOG": 2.8, "opponentDefense": { "team": "VGK", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 275.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 25.0, "mostAllowedRank": 27, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.585792714368043, "pkSogAllowed60": 47.03517587939699, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 38.72727272727273, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 59.0, "C": 80.0, "R": 61.0, "L": 75.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.2727272727272725, "L": 6.818181818181818, "R": 5.545454545454546, "D": 5.363636363636363 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 26.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 25.75, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 25.0, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.2727272727272725, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8479394", "team": "VGK", "name": "Carter Hart", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.8876404494382022, "gaa": 2.8716148845371516, "gsax": -1.5090000000000003, "goalsAllowed": 20.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 18.491, "shotsAgainst": 178.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.017200797231895, "factor": 1.017200797231895, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T22:33:02.238Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.10542861557563302, "goalHistoryGoals": 31.0, "goalHistoryShots": 316.0, "goalExpected": 0.08001717372208458, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.08139353290234748, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.07689950682081911, "goalProbability": 0.07816915071546576, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.12696438946466493, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 8, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 0.7589701646483386, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.039648400972508, "Current_PP_SOG60": 5.732484076433121, "Current_5v5_Min": 11.139583333333333, "Current_PP_Share": 0.25706099058534587, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.052367424242425, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.0417055842915441, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9589471960166247, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9956874166464801, "Position_Factor": 0.9789803456008442, "Input_GP": 8, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 628.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2443.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.981775951402537, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 11.041642090362156, "Prior_5v5_Min": 13.13849765258216, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.45940303262019705, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.8798311568394671, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.437908496732026, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.8798311568394671, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9956874166464801, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 3.8135593220338984, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 6.7669172932330826, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 4, "sogPerGame": 2.75 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 3.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020901", "date": "20260204", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 18.0 }, { "gameId": "2024021305", "date": "20250416", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 14.683333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024021229", "date": "20250406", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 19.466666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2024020905", "date": "20250222", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 17.8 }, { "gameId": "2024020519", "date": "20241219", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 20.616666666666667 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "NHL.com October 20 game-specific projected lineup", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 156, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 35, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479394", "goalieName": "Carter Hart", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8478856", "goals": 1, "sog": 8, "shootingPct": 0.125, "gamesWithAttempts": 5, "recordedAttempts": 11, "log": [ { "gameId": "2023020543", "date": "20231228", "season": 2023, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2023020042", "date": "20231017", "season": 2023, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2022020891", "date": "20230218", "season": 2022, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2022020026", "date": "20221015", "season": 2022, "goals": 1, "sog": 3, "attempts": 4 }, { "gameId": "2021020018", "date": "20211015", "season": 2021, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 4 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479394", "goalieName": "Carter Hart", "opponent": "CBJ", "games": 5, "availableGames": 11, "shotsAgainst": 128.0, "goalsAgainst": 11.0, "savePct": 0.9140625, "gaa": 2.6073215696602583, "gsax": 0.11300000000000043, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020692", "date": "20260108", "goalieTeam": "VGK", "opponent": "CBJ", "shotsAgainst": 1.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 504.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 0.415 }, { "gameId": "2025020502", "date": "20251213", "goalieTeam": "VGK", "opponent": "CBJ", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.064 }, { "gameId": "2023020011", "date": "20231012", "goalieTeam": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "shotsAgainst": 33.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.608 }, { "gameId": "2022021287", "date": "20230411", "goalieTeam": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "shotsAgainst": 31.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3884.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.732 }, { "gameId": "2022020510", "date": "20221220", "goalieTeam": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "shotsAgainst": 33.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.294 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.7589701646483386, "adjustedSOG": 0.7589701646483386, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.7589701646483386, "adjustedSOG": 0.7589701646483386, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. 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MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021240", "date": "20260407", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 13.183333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020693", "date": "20260108", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 13.633333333333333 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. 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Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482661", "goalieName": "Jesper Wallstedt", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8483570", "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 4, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020693", "date": "20260108", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 4 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482661", "goalieName": "Jesper Wallstedt", "opponent": "SEA", "games": 2, "availableGames": 2, "shotsAgainst": 55.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "savePct": 0.9272727272727272, "gaa": 1.9647973802701597, "gsax": 2.874, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021240", "date": "20260407", "goalieTeam": "MIN", "opponent": "SEA", "shotsAgainst": 27.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.053 }, { "gameId": "2025020693", "date": "20260108", "goalieTeam": "MIN", "opponent": "SEA", "shotsAgainst": 28.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3729.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.821 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.9049709489993545, "adjustedSOG": 0.9049709489993545, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.9049709489993545, "adjustedSOG": 0.9049709489993545, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.12052574911273113, "goalHistoryGoals": 8.0, "goalHistoryShots": 73.0, "goalExpected": 0.1090723015534064, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.1090723015534064, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.10333441516015725, "goalProbability": 0.10333441516015725, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12850954596502487, "modelSOG": 0.9049709489993545, "historyGames": 68, "seasonGames": { "2024": 8, "2025": 52, "2026": 8 }, "historyGoals": 8.0, "historyShots": 73.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.1095890410958904, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.12052574911273113, "goalieFactor": 0.9495343259526882, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 42.11662359820917, "btb": { "id": "8483570", "name": "Ben Meyers", "score": 42.11662359820917, "components": { "Goal model": 39.30232558139535, "SOG model": 22.790697674418606, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 37.7906976744186, "Goalie": 23.676470588235293, "Team H2H": 46.257615317667536, "Goalie H2H": 50.31264474293654 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 2, "goalieH2HShots": 1, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 316 } }, { "id": "8478840", "name": "Will Borgen", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "position": "D", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 0.4, "priorSOG": 0.92, "currentTOI": 18.738333333333333, "currentFiveTOI": 16.341666666666665, "ppShare": 0.0072436141822340835, "rate": 0.9597781072399716, "fifty": 0.7468808969013405, "inputs": { "Player": "Will Borgen", "Player_ID": "8478840", "Team": "BOS", "Opponent": "SJS", "Position": "D", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 0.9144675597306348, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 0.7236613806618857, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 10, "Prior_GP": 75, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 1.1014788373278939, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.344625016079928, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 16.103366666666666, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 16.341666666666665, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0072436141822340835, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.008612075692187079, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 19.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2623.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 6, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.950833333333334, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.03789443400486826, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.03586192654721058, "Other_State_SOG": 0.058, "Environment_Proxy": 1.0796680236682055, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 0.92, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/boston-bruins/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:44.548140+00:00", "priorGP": 75, "currentTotalSOG": 4.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.03166666666666666, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.40 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. 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MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2026020105", "date": "20261013", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 21.783333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2025020808", "date": "20260123", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 15.316666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020116", "date": "20251023", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 18.216666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2024021168", "date": "20250329", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 17.433333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020387", "date": "20241130", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 11.85 }, { "gameId": "2024020371", "date": "20241129", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 14.066666666666666 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 99, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. 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Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477968", "goalieName": "Alex Nedeljkovic", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8478840", "goals": 0, "sog": 7, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 3, "recordedAttempts": 7, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020808", "date": "20260123", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2 }, { "gameId": "2025020116", "date": "20251023", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 3 }, { "gameId": "2024020871", "date": "20250207", "season": 2024, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477968", "goalieName": "Alex Nedeljkovic", "opponent": "BOS", "games": 5, "availableGames": 8, "shotsAgainst": 134.0, "goalsAgainst": 17.0, "savePct": 0.8731343283582089, "gaa": 3.7850207186591627, "gsax": -3.2609999999999997, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021027", "date": "20260312", "goalieTeam": "SJS", "opponent": "BOS", "shotsAgainst": 41.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.661 }, { "gameId": "2024020952", "date": "20250301", "goalieTeam": "PIT", "opponent": "BOS", "shotsAgainst": 25.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3474.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.566 }, { "gameId": "2023021279", "date": "20240413", "goalieTeam": "PIT", "opponent": "BOS", "shotsAgainst": 16.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 1895.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.22 }, { "gameId": "2023021012", "date": "20240309", "goalieTeam": "PIT", "opponent": "BOS", "shotsAgainst": 23.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.955 }, { "gameId": "2023020589", "date": "20240104", "goalieTeam": "PIT", "opponent": "BOS", "shotsAgainst": 29.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.337 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.42559608540925264, "adjustedSOG": 0.42559608540925264, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.42559608540925264, "adjustedSOG": 0.42559608540925264, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.06599356747923082, "goalHistoryGoals": 11.0, "goalHistoryShots": 154.0, "goalExpected": 0.028086603981352, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.028086603981352, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.02769584225626601, "goalProbability": 0.02769584225626601, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.057623661397246305, "modelSOG": 0.42559608540925264, "historyGames": 169, "seasonGames": { "2024": 84, "2025": 75, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 11.0, "historyShots": 154.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.07142857142857142, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.06599356747923082, "goalieFactor": 0.9618500831522029, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 41.97344705104739, "btb": { "id": "8478840", "name": "Will Borgen", "score": 41.97344705104739, "components": { "Goal model": 6.27906976744186, "SOG model": 4.651162790697675, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 9.069767441860465, "Goalie": 97.5, "Team H2H": 68.26044386422976, "Goalie H2H": 45.89031634203619 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 6, "goalieH2HShots": 7, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 321 } }, { "id": "8481056", "name": "Spencer Stastney", "team": "PIT", "opponent": "NSH", "position": "D", "currentGP": 5, "currentSOG": 0.6, "priorSOG": 0.8484848484848485, "currentTOI": 17.333333333333336, "currentFiveTOI": 16.556666666666665, "ppShare": 0.0, "rate": 0.9587418289143197, "fifty": 0.8678290946856517, "inputs": { "Player": "Spencer Stastney", "Player_ID": "8481056", "Team": "PIT", "Opponent": "NSH", "Position": "D", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 0.9084799245999096, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 0.9910499957539247, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 5, "Prior_GP": 66, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.174350714717133, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.5081912957140493, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 15.709893939393936, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 16.556666666666665, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.012338800878460923, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1401.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 1, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.130208333333334, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.018990185727006264, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.0, "Other_State_SOG": 0.027272727272727275, "Environment_Proxy": 1.0738773444064478, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 0.8484848484848485, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/pittsburgh-penguins/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:44.572345+00:00", "priorGP": 66, "currentTotalSOG": 3.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.0, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.60 SOG/game in 5 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 5 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.11, "currentIXG": 0.022, "priorTOI": 15.50328282828283, "priorPPTOI": 0.05025252525252526, "deploymentChange": 1.8300505050505063, "ppTOIChange": -0.05025252525252526, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021061", "date": "20260315", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 13.75 }, { "gameId": "2025020731", "date": "20260113", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 13.883333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020674", "date": "20260106", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 16.566666666666666 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 3, "h2hSOG": 0.3333333333333333, "opponentDefense": { "team": "NSH", "games": 8, "sogAllowedTotal": 233.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 29.125, "mostAllowedRank": 8, "fiveSogAllowed60": 26.902173913043477, "pkSogAllowed60": 37.776914108045084, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 45.125, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 82.0, "L": 44.0, "D": 67.0, "R": 40.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.25, "L": 5.5, "R": 5.0, "D": 8.375 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 27.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 3, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 30.0, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 29.125, "oppPosSogAllowed": 8.375, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8477424", "team": "NSH", "name": "Juuse Saros", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.9061032863849765, "gaa": 2.8192176670973805, "gsax": 1.6679999999999993, "goalsAllowed": 20.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 21.668, "shotsAgainst": 213.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9906396066739361, "factor": 0.9906396066739361, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T15:56:16.281Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.04466967386234234, "goalHistoryGoals": 2.0, "goalHistoryShots": 74.0, "goalExpected": 0.028469631108410408, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.028203144163387744, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.028068189810274344, "goalProbability": 0.02780914815733017, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.025904165294417594, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 5, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 0.6373368920521943, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.174350714717133, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 16.556666666666665, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.130208333333334, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.0, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0235094259979116, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9053307495740243, "Position_Factor": 1.007338478796179, "Input_GP": 5, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1401.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.5081912957140493, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 13.73409090909091, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.012338800878460923, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0622281534203242, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.34640522875817, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0622281534203242, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9053307495740243, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 2.174350714717133, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 0.3333333333333333 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021061", "date": "20260315", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 13.75 }, { "gameId": "2025020731", "date": "20260113", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 13.883333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020674", "date": "20260106", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 16.566666666666666 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 77, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477424", "goalieName": "Juuse Saros", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8481056", "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 1, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020731", "date": "20260113", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477424", "goalieName": "Juuse Saros", "opponent": "PIT", "games": 5, "availableGames": 13, "shotsAgainst": 131.0, "goalsAgainst": 15.0, "savePct": 0.8854961832061069, "gaa": 3.034219250435467, "gsax": -2.5649999999999995, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020296", "date": "20251116", "goalieTeam": "NSH", "opponent": "PIT", "shotsAgainst": 21.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3562.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.064 }, { "gameId": "2025020281", "date": "20251114", "goalieTeam": "NSH", "opponent": "PIT", "shotsAgainst": 17.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3637.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.622 }, { "gameId": "2024020830", "date": "20250201", "goalieTeam": "NSH", "opponent": "PIT", "shotsAgainst": 35.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3527.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.258 }, { "gameId": "2024020515", "date": "20241219", "goalieTeam": "NSH", "opponent": "PIT", "shotsAgainst": 20.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3657.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.863 }, { "gameId": "2023021289", "date": "20240415", "goalieTeam": "NSH", "opponent": "PIT", "shotsAgainst": 38.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3414.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.628 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.6373368920521943, "adjustedSOG": 0.6373368920521943, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.6373368920521943, "adjustedSOG": 0.6373368920521943, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.04466967386234234, "goalHistoryGoals": 2.0, "goalHistoryShots": 74.0, "goalExpected": 0.028469631108410408, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.028203144163387744, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.028068189810274344, "goalProbability": 0.02780914815733017, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.025904165294417594 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.057725232520475685, "modelSOG": 0.6373368920521943, "historyGames": 94, "seasonGames": { "2024": 23, "2025": 66, "2026": 5 }, "historyGoals": 2.0, "historyShots": 74.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.02702702702702703, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.04466967386234234, "goalieFactor": 0.9906396066739361, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 38.28617660864559, "btb": { "id": "8481056", "name": "Spencer Stastney", "score": 38.28617660864559, "components": { "Goal model": 6.511627906976744, "SOG model": 11.395348837209303, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 18.837209302325583, "Goalie": 81.91176470588235, "Team H2H": 42.10684876481221, "Goalie H2H": 50.23158869847151 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 3, "goalieH2HShots": 1, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 373 } }, { "id": "8477956", "name": "David Pastrnak", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "position": "R", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 3.4, "priorSOG": 3.3896103896103895, "currentTOI": 19.928333333333335, "currentFiveTOI": 15.986666666666668, "ppShare": 0.7533358749523447, "rate": 3.6919704001721723, "fifty": 3.7558044025781054, "inputs": { "Player": "David Pastrnak", "Player_ID": "8477956", "Team": "BOS", "Opponent": "SJS", "Position": "R", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 3.525209623473942, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 3.7362548971879086, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 10, "Prior_GP": 77, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 10.508757297748124, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 8.31826893017819, "Current_PP_SOG60": 7.287449392712551, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 13.561876059521568, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 15.968134199134198, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 15.986666666666668, "Current_PP_Share": 0.7533358749523447, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.7862171944459228, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1976.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2623.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 6, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.950833333333334, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 3.7784773406877363, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 3.7296403609099, "Other_State_SOG": 0.38233766233766237, "Environment_Proxy": 1.0796680236682055, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 3.3896103896103895, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/boston-bruins/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:44.597400+00:00", "priorGP": 77, "currentTotalSOG": 34.0, "currentPPTOI": 3.293333333333333, "volumeNote": "Observed 3.40 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 3.277, "currentIXG": 0.3277, "priorTOI": 20.655627705627705, "priorPPTOI": 3.4474025974025975, "deploymentChange": -0.7272943722943701, "ppTOIChange": -0.15406926406926447, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2026020105", "date": "20261013", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 18.533333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2025021027", "date": "20260312", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 9.0, "toi": 25.0 }, { "gameId": "2025020351", "date": "20251123", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "away", "sog": 6.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 12.0, "toi": 21.483333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024021117", "date": "20250322", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "away", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 8.0, "toi": 22.733333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020740", "date": "20250120", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "home", "sog": 6.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 13.0, "toi": 20.35 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 5, "h2hSOG": 5.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "SJS", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 286.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 28.6, "mostAllowedRank": 10, "fiveSogAllowed60": 25.210423540502322, "pkSogAllowed60": 49.90958408679928, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 47.8, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 86.0, "C": 94.0, "R": 53.0, "L": 53.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.4, "L": 5.3, "R": 5.3, "D": 8.6 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 30.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 29.833333333333332, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 28.6, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.3, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8477968", "team": "SJS", "name": "Alex Nedeljkovic", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 4, "savePct": 0.9173553719008265, "gaa": 2.372479240806643, "gsax": 4.638, "goalsAllowed": 10.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 14.638, "shotsAgainst": 121.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9618500831522029, "factor": 0.9618500831522029, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T16:06:01.887Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.12444302414435722, "goalHistoryGoals": 76.0, "goalHistoryShots": 614.0, "goalExpected": 0.42850062994069305, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.4121533665392269, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.34851481984297344, "goalProbability": 0.33777729454097755, "goalAdjustmentPP": -1.0737525301995898, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 3.443347932814787, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 10.508757297748124, "Current_PP_SOG60": 7.287449392712551, "Current_5v5_Min": 15.986666666666668, "Current_PP_Share": 0.7533358749523447, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.950833333333334, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 3.7296403609099, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.2, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9930883597207428, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0259958714356598, "Position_Factor": 0.9922140700829225, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1976.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2623.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 8.31826893017819, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 13.561876059521568, "Prior_5v5_Min": 15.924891774891774, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.7862171944459228, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9923497267759562, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.382352941176471, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9923497267759562, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0259958714356598, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 10.508757297748124, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 7.287449392712551, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 5.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 5.0 }, { "season": "2026", "label": "2026–27", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 4.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2026020105", "date": "20261013", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 18.533333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2025021027", "date": "20260312", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 9.0, "toi": 25.0 }, { "gameId": "2025020351", "date": "20251123", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "away", "sog": 6.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 12.0, "toi": 21.483333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024021117", "date": "20250322", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "away", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 8.0, "toi": 22.733333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020740", "date": "20250120", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "home", "sog": 6.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 13.0, "toi": 20.35 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "ppAssignmentSourceDate": "2026-10-12T22:24:39.463Z", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 251, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 91, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477968", "goalieName": "Alex Nedeljkovic", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8477956", "goals": 5, "sog": 29, "shootingPct": 0.1724137931034483, "gamesWithAttempts": 7, "recordedAttempts": 37, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021027", "date": "20260312", "season": 2025, "goals": 1, "sog": 4, "attempts": 7 }, { "gameId": "2024020952", "date": "20250301", "season": 2024, "goals": 1, "sog": 3, "attempts": 3 }, { "gameId": "2023021279", "date": "20240413", "season": 2023, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 4 }, { "gameId": "2023021012", "date": "20240309", "season": 2023, "goals": 1, "sog": 2, "attempts": 4 }, { "gameId": "2023020589", "date": "20240104", "season": 2023, "goals": 1, "sog": 7, "attempts": 7 }, { "gameId": "2021020575", "date": "20220102", "season": 2021, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2 }, { "gameId": "2021020337", "date": "20211130", "season": 2021, "goals": 1, "sog": 9, "attempts": 10 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477968", "goalieName": "Alex Nedeljkovic", "opponent": "BOS", "games": 5, "availableGames": 8, "shotsAgainst": 134.0, "goalsAgainst": 17.0, "savePct": 0.8731343283582089, "gaa": 3.7850207186591627, "gsax": -3.2609999999999997, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021027", "date": "20260312", "goalieTeam": "SJS", "opponent": "BOS", "shotsAgainst": 41.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.661 }, { "gameId": "2024020952", "date": "20250301", "goalieTeam": "PIT", "opponent": "BOS", "shotsAgainst": 25.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3474.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.566 }, { "gameId": "2023021279", "date": "20240413", "goalieTeam": "PIT", "opponent": "BOS", "shotsAgainst": 16.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 1895.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.22 }, { "gameId": "2023021012", "date": "20240309", "goalieTeam": "PIT", "opponent": "BOS", "shotsAgainst": 23.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.955 }, { "gameId": "2023020589", "date": "20240104", "goalieTeam": "PIT", "opponent": "BOS", "shotsAgainst": 29.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.337 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 3.443347932814787, "adjustedSOG": 3.443347932814787, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 3.443347932814787, "adjustedSOG": 3.443347932814787, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.12444302414435722, "goalHistoryGoals": 76.0, "goalHistoryShots": 614.0, "goalExpected": 0.42850062994069305, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.42850062994069305, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.34851481984297344, "goalProbability": 0.34851481984297344, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1285231923907105, "modelSOG": 3.443347932814787, "historyGames": 169, "seasonGames": { "2024": 82, "2025": 77, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 76.0, "historyShots": 614.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.1237785016286645, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.12444302414435722, "goalieFactor": 0.9618500831522029, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 72.54980874275253, "btb": { "id": "8477956", "name": "David Pastrnak", "score": 72.54980874275253, "components": { "Goal model": 96.51162790697674, "SOG model": 97.44186046511628, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 86.51162790697674, "Goalie": 97.5, "Team H2H": 56.57093124456049, "Goalie H2H": 64.88587660719625 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 5, "goalieH2HShots": 29, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 1 } }, { "id": "8482105", "name": "Jake Sanderson", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "NYR", "position": "D", "currentGP": 2, "currentSOG": 2.0, "priorSOG": 2.1940298507462686, "currentTOI": 13.541666666666666, "currentFiveTOI": 7.95, "ppShare": 0.34177215189873417, "rate": 1.6017396534206578, "fifty": 1.429277125525839, "inputs": { "Player": "Jake Sanderson", "Player_ID": "8482105", "Team": "OTT", "Opponent": "NYR", "Position": "D", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.1791859824813342, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 0.6417354798043238, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 2, "Prior_GP": 67, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 0.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.634861597882841, "Current_PP_SOG60": 38.095238095238095, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 12.004763795156808, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 10.781791044776117, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 7.95, "Current_PP_Share": 0.34177215189873417, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.6341285026452771, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 378.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1106.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 1, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 6.001439393939394, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 2.5774925322881015, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 2.051124856156502, "Other_State_SOG": 0.20149253731343283, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9482920490252438, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 2.1940298507462686, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/ottawa-senators/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:44.620041+00:00", "priorGP": 67, "currentTotalSOG": 4.0, "currentPPTOI": 3.15, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.00 SOG/game in 2 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 2 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.147, "currentIXG": 0.0735, "priorTOI": 24.839303482587066, "priorPPTOI": 3.1330845771144276, "deploymentChange": -11.2976368159204, "ppTOIChange": 0.01691542288557235, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020737", "date": "20260114", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "NYR", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 21.15 }, { "gameId": "2025020427", "date": "20251204", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "NYR", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 27.5 }, { "gameId": "2024021003", "date": "20250308", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "NYR", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 23.25 }, { "gameId": "2024020750", "date": "20250121", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "NYR", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 20.683333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020170", "date": "20241101", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "NYR", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 26.8 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 5, "h2hSOG": 2.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "NYR", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 283.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 25.727272727272727, "mostAllowedRank": 23, "fiveSogAllowed60": 24.897512126427788, "pkSogAllowed60": 40.17358958462492, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 39.81818181818182, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 106.0, "D": 82.0, "R": 57.0, "L": 38.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.636363636363637, "L": 3.4545454545454546, "R": 5.181818181818182, "D": 7.454545454545454 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 27.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.4, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 25.727272727272727, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.454545454545454, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8482193", "team": "NYR", "name": "Dylan Garand", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.9285714285714286, "gaa": 1.846928781306842, "gsax": 4.030999999999999, "goalsAllowed": 11.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 15.030999999999999, "shotsAgainst": 154.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9674872583533348, "factor": 0.9674872583533348, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T15:37:42.216Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.06895858673919512, "goalHistoryGoals": 25.0, "goalHistoryShots": 346.0, "goalExpected": 0.08260129703024972, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.07991570240022576, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.07928183288316608, "goalProbability": 0.07680583384108754, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.24759990420785416, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 2, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.1978391805309472, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_PP_SOG60": 38.095238095238095, "Current_5v5_Min": 7.95, "Current_PP_Share": 0.34177215189873417, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 6.001439393939394, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 2.051124856156502, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9864268368728425, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9197863814450764, "Position_Factor": 1.0097164911259575, "Input_GP": 2, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 378.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1106.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.634861597882841, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 12.004763795156808, "Prior_5v5_Min": 17.389303482587064, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.6341285026452771, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0077105575326217, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.34640522875817, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0077105575326217, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9197863814450764, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 0, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 38.095238095238095, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 2.3333333333333335 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020737", "date": "20260114", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "NYR", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 21.15 }, { "gameId": "2025020427", "date": "20251204", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "NYR", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 27.5 }, { "gameId": "2024021003", "date": "20250308", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "NYR", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 23.25 }, { "gameId": "2024020750", "date": "20250121", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "NYR", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 20.683333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020170", "date": "20241101", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "NYR", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 26.8 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "lineupReviewedAt": "2026-10-22T12:25:32.333917+00:00", "lineupReviewNote": "Reported forward, defense and PP chart reviewed October22; matches existing assignments. Final dressing unconfirmed. Dated statistical inputs now include October21.", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 154, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 58, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482193", "goalieName": "Dylan Garand", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8482105", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482193", "goalieName": "Dylan Garand", "opponent": "OTT", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "No appearance found in the supplied historical files; this does not establish that the goalie has never faced the team." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.1978391805309472, "adjustedSOG": 1.1978391805309472, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.1978391805309472, "adjustedSOG": 1.1978391805309472, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.06895858673919512, "goalHistoryGoals": 25.0, "goalHistoryShots": 346.0, "goalExpected": 0.08260129703024972, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.07991570240022576, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.07928183288316608, "goalProbability": 0.07680583384108754, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.24759990420785416 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05755529685681025, "modelSOG": 1.1978391805309472, "historyGames": 149, "seasonGames": { "2024": 80, "2025": 67, "2026": 2 }, "historyGoals": 25.0, "historyShots": 346.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.07225433526011561, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.06895858673919512, "goalieFactor": 0.9674872583533348, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 45.38766327467292, "btb": { "id": "8482105", "name": "Jake Sanderson", "score": 45.38766327467292, "components": { "Goal model": 29.53488372093023, "SOG model": 40.93023255813954, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 49.53488372093023, "Goalie": 39.55882352941177, "Team H2H": 56.83202785030461, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 5, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 270 } }, { "id": "8475790", "name": "Erik Gudbranson", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "VGK", "position": "D", "currentGP": 8, "currentSOG": 0.75, "priorSOG": 0.918918918918919, "currentTOI": 17.01875, "currentFiveTOI": 13.902083333333334, "ppShare": 0.007367990176013099, "rate": 0.8254875488797451, "fifty": 0.7927391516484916, "inputs": { "Player": "Erik Gudbranson", "Player_ID": "8475790", "Team": "CBJ", "Opponent": "VGK", "Position": "D", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 0.7504495871272308, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 0.4936563968994173, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 8, "Prior_GP": 37, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.2369249213247415, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.5584110706122196, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 14.106323198198197, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 13.902083333333334, "Current_PP_Share": 0.007367990176013099, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.00020798800771584791, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 18.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2443.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 4, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.052367424242425, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.021153315508119816, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.02985780337141369, "Other_State_SOG": 0.04864864864864865, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9217353117054976, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 0.918918918918919, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:44.640121+00:00", "priorGP": 37, "currentTotalSOG": 6.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.0375, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.75 SOG/game in 8 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 8 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.198, "currentIXG": 0.02475, "priorTOI": 17.77117117117117, "priorPPTOI": 0.0009009009009009009, "deploymentChange": -0.7524211711711679, "ppTOIChange": 0.0365990990990991, "h2hLog": [], "h2hGames": 0, "h2hAvailableGames": 0, "h2hSOG": null, "opponentDefense": { "team": "VGK", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 275.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 25.0, "mostAllowedRank": 27, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.585792714368043, "pkSogAllowed60": 47.03517587939699, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 38.72727272727273, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 59.0, "C": 80.0, "R": 61.0, "L": 75.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.2727272727272725, "L": 6.818181818181818, "R": 5.545454545454546, "D": 5.363636363636363 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 26.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 25.75, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 25.0, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.363636363636363, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8479394", "team": "VGK", "name": "Carter Hart", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.8876404494382022, "gaa": 2.8716148845371516, "gsax": -1.5090000000000003, "goalsAllowed": 20.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 18.491, "shotsAgainst": 178.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.017200797231895, "factor": 1.017200797231895, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T22:33:02.238Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.044551967051102925, "goalHistoryGoals": 1.0, "goalHistoryShots": 52.0, "goalExpected": 0.028690096473840333, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.029183589005850368, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.02828244349335471, "goalProbability": 0.02876186054661646, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0479417053261752, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 8, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 0.643969242501271, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.2369249213247415, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 13.902083333333334, "Current_PP_Share": 0.007367990176013099, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.052367424242425, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.02985780337141369, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9589471960166247, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9956874166464801, "Position_Factor": 0.9732049652601255, "Input_GP": 8, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 18.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2443.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.5584110706122196, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 14.582882882882885, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.00020798800771584791, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.8586256566683613, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.34640522875817, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.8586256566683613, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9956874166464801, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 3.014065639651708, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "NHL.com October 20 game-specific projected lineup", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 50, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479394", "goalieName": "Carter Hart", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8475790", "goals": 0, "sog": 8, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 6, "recordedAttempts": 11, "log": [ { "gameId": "2023020011", "date": "20231012", "season": 2023, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2022020510", "date": "20221220", "season": 2022, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2022020250", "date": "20221115", "season": 2022, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 3 }, { "gameId": "2022020214", "date": "20221110", "season": 2022, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2021020236", "date": "20211116", "season": 2021, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2 }, { "gameId": "2021020123", "date": "20211030", "season": 2021, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 3 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479394", "goalieName": "Carter Hart", "opponent": "CBJ", "games": 5, "availableGames": 11, "shotsAgainst": 128.0, "goalsAgainst": 11.0, "savePct": 0.9140625, "gaa": 2.6073215696602583, "gsax": 0.11300000000000043, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020692", "date": "20260108", "goalieTeam": "VGK", "opponent": "CBJ", "shotsAgainst": 1.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 504.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 0.415 }, { "gameId": "2025020502", "date": "20251213", "goalieTeam": "VGK", "opponent": "CBJ", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.064 }, { "gameId": "2023020011", "date": "20231012", "goalieTeam": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "shotsAgainst": 33.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.608 }, { "gameId": "2022021287", "date": "20230411", "goalieTeam": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "shotsAgainst": 31.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3884.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.732 }, { "gameId": "2022020510", "date": "20221220", "goalieTeam": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "shotsAgainst": 33.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.294 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.643969242501271, "adjustedSOG": 0.643969242501271, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.643969242501271, "adjustedSOG": 0.643969242501271, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.044551967051102925, "goalHistoryGoals": 1.0, "goalHistoryShots": 52.0, "goalExpected": 0.028690096473840333, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.028690096473840333, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.02828244349335471, "goalProbability": 0.02828244349335471, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05771898991767644, "modelSOG": 0.643969242501271, "historyGames": 61, "seasonGames": { "2024": 16, "2025": 37, "2026": 8 }, "historyGoals": 1.0, "historyShots": 52.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.019230769230769232, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.044551967051102925, "goalieFactor": 1.017200797231895, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 31.45256006727401, "btb": { "id": "8475790", "name": "Erik Gudbranson", "score": 31.45256006727401, "components": { "Goal model": 6.744186046511628, "SOG model": 11.86046511627907, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 7.209302325581396, "Goalie": 18.38235294117647, "Team H2H": 50.0, "Goalie H2H": 44.51534075481944 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Team H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 0, "goalieH2HShots": 8, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 428 } }, { "id": "8478472", "name": "Mathieu Joseph", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "TOR", "position": "R", "currentGP": 9, "currentSOG": 1.1111111111111112, "priorSOG": 0.7058823529411765, "currentTOI": 14.362962962962964, "currentFiveTOI": 12.796296296296298, "ppShare": 0.02250296091590999, "rate": 0.8668664948971414, "fifty": 0.9758960407425625, "inputs": { "Player": "Mathieu Joseph", "Player_ID": "8478472", "Team": "EDM", "Opponent": "TOR", "Position": "R", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 0.7996874442191049, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 0.8292316165032285, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 9, "Prior_GP": 51, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.688856729377713, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.709482733241087, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 12.287505446623094, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 12.796296296296298, "Current_PP_Share": 0.02250296091590999, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.009047817284211054, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 57.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2533.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 5, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.365824915824916, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.09908756487893217, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.1207469483624241, "Other_State_SOG": 0.028758169934640525, "Environment_Proxy": 1.1073475417853031, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 0.7058823529411765, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:44.662106+00:00", "priorGP": 51, "currentTotalSOG": 10.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.10555555555555556, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.11 SOG/game in 9 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 9 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.182, "currentIXG": 0.13133333333333333, "priorTOI": 11.987581699346405, "priorPPTOI": 0.03856209150326797, "deploymentChange": 2.3753812636165588, "ppTOIChange": 0.0669934640522876, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020307", "date": "20251118", "team": "STL", "opponent": "TOR", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 11.866666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020110", "date": "20241024", "team": "STL", "opponent": "TOR", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 14.05 } ], "h2hGames": 2, "h2hAvailableGames": 2, "h2hSOG": 0.5, "opponentDefense": { "team": "TOR", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 332.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 30.181818181818183, "mostAllowedRank": 5, "fiveSogAllowed60": 28.565965583173995, "pkSogAllowed60": 43.340857787810386, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.0, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 130.0, "D": 98.0, "R": 49.0, "L": 55.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 11.818181818181818, "L": 5.0, "R": 4.454545454545454, "D": 8.909090909090908 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 30.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 35.25, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 30.181818181818183, "oppPosSogAllowed": 4.454545454545454, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8476932", "team": "TOR", "name": "Anthony Stolarz", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 4, "savePct": 0.8974358974358975, "gaa": 2.9929333518082304, "gsax": 0.46399999999999864, "goalsAllowed": 12.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 12.463999999999999, "shotsAgainst": 117.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9986972168772468, "factor": 0.9986972168772468, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T20:54:34.227Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.09700356824707995, "goalHistoryGoals": 8.0, "goalHistoryShots": 115.0, "goalExpected": 0.09902289831727676, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.09889389295658291, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.09427803172289738, "goalProbability": 0.09416118119668136, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.011685052621601688, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 9, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.0208170699973977, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.688856729377713, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 12.796296296296298, "Current_PP_Share": 0.02250296091590999, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.365824915824916, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.1207469483624241, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.1111111111111111, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0610638532936316, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9495764141752431, "Position_Factor": 0.9668459160608084, "Input_GP": 9, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 57.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2533.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.709482733241087, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 11.100326797385621, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.009047817284211054, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9097059588862867, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.382352941176471, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9097059588862867, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9495764141752431, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 4.688856729377713, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 1.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 0.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020307", "date": "20251118", "team": "STL", "opponent": "TOR", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 11.866666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020110", "date": "20241024", "team": "STL", "opponent": "TOR", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 14.05 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Reviewed October22 projected lineup and coach reports", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 65, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. 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Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476932", "goalieName": "Anthony Stolarz", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8478472", "goals": 1, "sog": 3, "shootingPct": 0.3333333333333333, "gamesWithAttempts": 2, "recordedAttempts": 4, "log": [ { "gameId": "2023021241", "date": "20240409", "season": 2023, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2 }, { "gameId": "2022020323", "date": "20221125", "season": 2022, "goals": 1, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476932", "goalieName": "Anthony Stolarz", "opponent": "EDM", "games": 5, "availableGames": 5, "shotsAgainst": 140.0, "goalsAgainst": 14.0, "savePct": 0.9, "gaa": 3.2642487046632125, "gsax": -1.5539999999999994, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020891", "date": "20260203", "goalieTeam": "TOR", "opponent": "EDM", "shotsAgainst": 36.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.709 }, { "gameId": "2024020274", "date": "20241116", "goalieTeam": "TOR", "opponent": "EDM", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3640.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.584 }, { "gameId": "2022020660", "date": "20230111", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "EDM", "shotsAgainst": 16.0, "goalsAgainst": 0.0, "seconds": 1200.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.249 }, { "gameId": "2021020049", "date": "20211019", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "EDM", "shotsAgainst": 36.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3461.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.959 }, { "gameId": "2018020494", "date": "20181214", "goalieTeam": "PHI", "opponent": "EDM", "shotsAgainst": 22.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3539.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.945 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.0208170699973977, "adjustedSOG": 1.0208170699973977, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.0208170699973977, "adjustedSOG": 1.0208170699973977, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.09700356824707995, "goalHistoryGoals": 8.0, "goalHistoryShots": 115.0, "goalExpected": 0.09902289831727676, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.09902289831727676, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.09427803172289738, "goalProbability": 0.09427803172289738, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1285576717312219, "modelSOG": 1.0208170699973977, "historyGames": 120, "seasonGames": { "2024": 60, "2025": 51, "2026": 9 }, "historyGoals": 8.0, "historyShots": 115.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.06956521739130435, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.09700356824707995, "goalieFactor": 0.9986972168772468, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 45.846609650602794, "btb": { "id": "8478472", "name": "Mathieu Joseph", "score": 45.846609650602794, "components": { "Goal model": 34.883720930232556, "SOG model": 30.697674418604652, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 41.16279069767442, "Goalie": 60.73529411764706, "Team H2H": 46.14882506527415, "Goalie H2H": 52.22849502302778 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 2, "goalieH2HShots": 3, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 264 } }, { "id": "8479369", "name": "Andrew Peeke", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "TBL", "position": "D", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 0.9, "priorSOG": 1.0649350649350648, "currentTOI": 15.688333333333333, "currentFiveTOI": 13.86, "ppShare": 0.006424670735624799, "rate": 0.8776109782743967, "fifty": 0.8667781390515678, "inputs": { "Player": "Andrew Peeke", "Player_ID": "8479369", "Team": "UTA", "Opponent": "TBL", "Position": "D", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.0546050250247414, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.0834448421442695, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 10, "Prior_GP": 77, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.896103896103896, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.5378749164668424, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 14.657649350649349, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 13.86, "Current_PP_Share": 0.006424670735624799, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.007305841952533218, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 20.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3113.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 6, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.821018518518519, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.03224789941824145, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.030973456591831157, "Other_State_SOG": 0.08181818181818182, "Environment_Proxy": 0.8844868901771036, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.0649350649350648, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/utah-mammoth/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:44.684961+00:00", "priorGP": 77, "currentTotalSOG": 9.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.03333333333333333, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.90 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.421, "currentIXG": 0.0421, "priorTOI": 19.385497835497837, "priorPPTOI": 0.032034632034632034, "deploymentChange": -3.6971645021645045, "ppTOIChange": 0.0012987012987012991, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021261", "date": "20260411", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 19.583333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2025021210", "date": "20260404", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 17.866666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020873", "date": "20260201", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 14.3 }, { "gameId": "2025020040", "date": "20251013", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 18.616666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024021058", "date": "20250315", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 20.7 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 8, "h2hSOG": 0.8, "opponentDefense": { "team": "TBL", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 218.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 24.22222222222222, "mostAllowedRank": 29, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.310572168589594, "pkSogAllowed60": 47.9002079002079, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 36.333333333333336, "positionUnassignedSOG": 1.0, "positionTotals": { "L": 36.0, "R": 49.0, "D": 66.0, "C": 66.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.333333333333333, "L": 4.0, "R": 5.444444444444445, "D": 7.333333333333333 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 24.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.25, "positionSourceDifference": 1.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 24.22222222222222, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.333333333333333, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8483710", "team": "TBL", "name": "Dennis Hildeby", "status": "Unconfirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 2, "savePct": 0.92, "gaa": 2.0089285714285716, "gsax": 0.8719999999999999, "goalsAllowed": 4.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.872, "shotsAgainst": 50.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9926942170737747, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Starter remains unconfirmed per Daily Faceoff; no Model Goal adjustment.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": null }, "goalShootingPct": 0.0471362104925397, "goalHistoryGoals": 7.0, "goalHistoryShots": 171.0, "goalExpected": 0.0423868333742663, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.0423868333742663, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.04150107052680073, "goalProbability": 0.04150107052680073, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 0.8992414309795843, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.896103896103896, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 13.86, "Current_PP_Share": 0.006424670735624799, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.821018518518519, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.030973456591831157, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9588832837562793, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0032616490671127, "Position_Factor": 1.0144938104754524, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 20.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3113.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.5378749164668424, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 16.51883116883117, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.007305841952533218, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9991571455328714, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.34640522875817, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9991571455328714, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0032616490671127, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 3.896103896103896, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 4, "sogPerGame": 1.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 4, "sogPerGame": 0.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021261", "date": "20260411", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 19.583333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2025021210", "date": "20260404", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 17.866666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020873", "date": "20260201", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 14.3 }, { "gameId": "2025020040", "date": "20251013", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 18.616666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024021058", "date": "20250315", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 20.7 }, { "gameId": "2024021005", "date": "20250308", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 21.8 }, { "gameId": "2024020692", "date": "20250114", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 20.916666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2024020655", "date": "20250109", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 17.833333333333332 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 128, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8483710", "goalieName": "Dennis Hildeby", "starterStatus": "Unconfirmed", "shooterId": "8479369", "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 2, "recordedAttempts": 2, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020256", "date": "20251111", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2025020234", "date": "20251108", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8483710", "goalieName": "Dennis Hildeby", "opponent": "UTA", "games": 1, "availableGames": 1, "shotsAgainst": 41.0, "goalsAgainst": 6.0, "savePct": 0.8536585365853658, "gaa": 6.0, "gsax": -1.2770000000000001, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020733", "date": "20260113", "goalieTeam": "TOR", "opponent": "UTA", "shotsAgainst": 41.0, "goalsAgainst": 6.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.723 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.8992414309795843, "adjustedSOG": 0.8992414309795843, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.8992414309795843, "adjustedSOG": 0.8992414309795843, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.0471362104925397, "goalHistoryGoals": 7.0, "goalHistoryShots": 171.0, "goalExpected": 0.0423868333742663, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.0423868333742663, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.04150107052680073, "goalProbability": 0.04150107052680073, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.057739130434782605, "modelSOG": 0.8992414309795843, "historyGames": 163, "seasonGames": { "2024": 76, "2025": 77, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 7.0, "historyShots": 171.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.04093567251461988, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.0471362104925397, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 39.51452223369159, "btb": { "id": "8479369", "name": "Andrew Peeke", "score": 39.51452223369159, "components": { "Goal model": 12.325581395348838, "SOG model": 22.093023255813954, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 5.813953488372093, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 69.08906295329272, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Unconfirmed", "h2hGames": 8, "goalieH2HShots": 1, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 359 } }, { "id": "8482124", "name": "Quinton Byfield", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "NJD", "position": "R", "currentGP": 7, "currentSOG": 2.0, "priorSOG": 2.2911392405063293, "currentTOI": 18.438095238095237, "currentFiveTOI": 13.445238095238095, "ppShare": 0.6522869022869023, "rate": 2.117402030476098, "fifty": 1.975347181628337, "inputs": { "Player": "Quinton Byfield", "Player_ID": "8482124", "Team": "LAK", "Opponent": "NJD", "Position": "R", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 2.069851467746139, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.9550607031940963, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 7, "Prior_GP": 79, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.8250398441650435, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.582822685333817, "Current_PP_SOG60": 14.342629482071713, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 10.363972856261567, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 13.94590717299578, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 13.445238095238095, "Current_PP_Share": 0.6522869022869023, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.4814366676912757, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1255.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1924.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 4, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.575661375661376, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 2.7501181388054166, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 2.984643984643985, "Other_State_SOG": 0.27070524412296565, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9357862710703578, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 2.2911392405063293, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/los-angeles-kings/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:44.711475+00:00", "priorGP": 79, "currentTotalSOG": 14.0, "currentPPTOI": 2.988095238095238, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.00 SOG/game in 7 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 7 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.871, "currentIXG": 0.2672857142857143, "priorTOI": 20.02426160337553, "priorPPTOI": 2.051898734177215, "deploymentChange": -1.5861663652802918, "ppTOIChange": 0.9361965039180231, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021050", "date": "20260314", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 18.566666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020191", "date": "20251101", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 19.833333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2024020602", "date": "20250101", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 20.733333333333334 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 2.3333333333333335, "opponentDefense": { "team": "NJD", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 234.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 26.0, "mostAllowedRank": 22, "fiveSogAllowed60": 24.374647357532442, "pkSogAllowed60": 52.512155591572125, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 37.111111111111114, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "L": 41.0, "D": 63.0, "C": 78.0, "R": 52.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 8.666666666666666, "L": 4.555555555555555, "R": 5.777777777777778, "D": 7.0 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 25.0, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 25.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 26.0, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.777777777777778, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8474596", "team": "NJD", "name": "Jake Allen", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 6, "savePct": 0.8834355828220859, "gaa": 3.1496062992125986, "gsax": -3.708, "goalsAllowed": 19.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 15.292, "shotsAgainst": 163.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0365218981504722, "factor": 1.0365218981504722, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T17:31:56.013Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.13432089390935273, "goalHistoryGoals": 48.0, "goalHistoryShots": 353.0, "goalExpected": 0.27149878147850914, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.28141443232364455, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.23776378773132106, "goalProbability": 0.24528450783661349, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.7520720105292422, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 7, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 2.021269912495756, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.8250398441650435, "Current_PP_SOG60": 14.342629482071713, "Current_5v5_Min": 13.445238095238095, "Current_PP_Share": 0.6522869022869023, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.575661375661376, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 2.984643984643985, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.42857142857142855, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9778442581785296, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0469775686735434, "Position_Factor": 1.0147397181478286, "Input_GP": 7, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1255.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1924.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.582822685333817, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 10.363972856261567, "Prior_5v5_Min": 15.114135021097047, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.4814366676912757, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0348001150417026, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.382352941176471, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0348001150417026, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0469775686735434, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 3.8250398441650435, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 14.342629482071713, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021050", "date": "20260314", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 18.566666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020191", "date": "20251101", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 19.833333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2024020602", "date": "20250101", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 20.733333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020461", "date": "20241212", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 17.1 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "ppAssignmentSourceDate": "2026-10-11T01:38:00.435Z", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 202, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 49, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8474596", "goalieName": "Jake Allen", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8482124", "goals": 1, "sog": 6, "shootingPct": 0.16666666666666666, "gamesWithAttempts": 4, "recordedAttempts": 14, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021050", "date": "20260314", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 3 }, { "gameId": "2024020602", "date": "20250101", "season": 2024, "goals": 1, "sog": 2, "attempts": 5 }, { "gameId": "2023020309", "date": "20231125", "season": 2023, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 4 }, { "gameId": "2022020982", "date": "20230302", "season": 2022, "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 2 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8474596", "goalieName": "Jake Allen", "opponent": "LAK", "games": 5, "availableGames": 17, "shotsAgainst": 151.0, "goalsAgainst": 16.0, "savePct": 0.8940397350993378, "gaa": 3.2597623089983023, "gsax": 1.5839999999999996, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021050", "date": "20260314", "goalieTeam": "NJD", "opponent": "LAK", "shotsAgainst": 31.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.558 }, { "gameId": "2024020602", "date": "20250101", "goalieTeam": "NJD", "opponent": "LAK", "shotsAgainst": 23.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3431.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.828 }, { "gameId": "2023020309", "date": "20231125", "goalieTeam": "MTL", "opponent": "LAK", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.339 }, { "gameId": "2022020982", "date": "20230302", "goalieTeam": "MTL", "opponent": "LAK", "shotsAgainst": 33.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3509.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.849 }, { "gameId": "2022020439", "date": "20221210", "goalieTeam": "MTL", "opponent": "LAK", "shotsAgainst": 34.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3530.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.01 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 2.021269912495756, "adjustedSOG": 2.021269912495756, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 2.0625203188732204, "adjustedSOG": 2.021269912495756, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.13432089390935273, "goalHistoryGoals": 48.0, "goalHistoryShots": 353.0, "goalExpected": 0.2770395729372542, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.2770395729372542, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.24197550073898563, "goalProbability": 0.24197550073898563, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1284736494093679, "modelSOG": 2.021269912495756, "historyGames": 167, "seasonGames": { "2024": 81, "2025": 79, "2026": 7 }, "historyGoals": 48.0, "historyShots": 353.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.1359773371104816, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.13432089390935273, "goalieFactor": 1.0365218981504722, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 61.26538178916554, "btb": { "id": "8482124", "name": "Quinton Byfield", "score": 61.26538178916554, "components": { "Goal model": 80.93023255813954, "SOG model": 76.04651162790698, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 76.51162790697674, "Goalie": 55.44117647058823, "Team H2H": 52.27527042148452, "Goalie H2H": 52.40438695163105 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": 6, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 76 } }, { "id": "8482641", "name": "Matt Kiersted", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "SEA", "position": "D", "currentGP": 3, "currentSOG": 1.0, "priorSOG": 0.6666666666666666, "currentTOI": 11.844444444444443, "currentFiveTOI": 11.083333333333334, "ppShare": 0.0, "rate": 0.7190984019067485, "fifty": 0.8577952567320315, "inputs": { "Player": "Matt Kiersted", "Player_ID": "8482641", "Team": "MIN", "Opponent": "SEA", "Position": "D", "Current_GP": 3, "Prior_GP": 6, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.413533834586466, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 2.987551867219917, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 11.774999999999999, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 11.083333333333334, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0, "Prior_PP_Share": 0, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 863.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 2, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Measured game-matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Historical skater-team PP minute approximation, existing hybrid method", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 3.9491666666666667, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.0, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.0, "Other_State_SOG": 0.0, "Environment_Proxy": 1.1489692159321772, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 0.6666666666666666, "Status": "Historical input object restored from saved prior summaries", "Availability_Note": "Conditional on dressing", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 0.6729920446893403, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 0.9479930132276443 }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/minnesota-wild/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:44.733123+00:00", "priorGP": 6, "currentTotalSOG": 3.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.0, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.00 SOG/game in 3 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 3 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.224, "currentIXG": 0.07466666666666667, "priorTOI": 15.727777777777776, "priorPPTOI": 0, "deploymentChange": -3.883333333333333, "ppTOIChange": 0.0, "h2hLog": [], "h2hGames": 0, "h2hAvailableGames": 0, "h2hSOG": null, "opponentDefense": { "team": "SEA", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 311.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 31.1, "mostAllowedRank": 3, "fiveSogAllowed60": 29.01212141229316, "pkSogAllowed60": 57.63738641280831, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 48.5, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 101.0, "R": 65.0, "L": 58.0, "D": 87.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.1, "L": 5.8, "R": 6.5, "D": 8.7 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 31.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 3, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 28.666666666666668, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 31.1, "oppPosSogAllowed": 8.7, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8478916", "team": "SEA", "name": "Joey Daccord", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 5, "savePct": 0.881578947368421, "gaa": 3.8855909336211547, "gsax": -2.3970000000000002, "goalsAllowed": 18.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 15.603, "shotsAgainst": 152.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.024854248577667, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Likely starter per Daily Faceoff; no Model Goal adjustment until confirmed.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T20:31:39.541Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.05390849545642274, "goalHistoryGoals": 0.0, "goalHistoryShots": 7.0, "goalExpected": 0.057697389791442254, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.057697389791442254, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.05606445124504435, "goalProbability": 0.05606445124504435, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": null, "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 3, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.0702838078291814, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.413533834586466, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 11.083333333333334, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 3.9491666666666667, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.0, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0689197555315912, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0920680305430235, "Position_Factor": 1.0046361324392672, "Input_GP": 3, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 863.0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0921263345195729, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.34640522875817, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0921263345195729, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0920680305430235, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.413533834586466, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0 }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478916", "goalieName": "Joey Daccord", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8482641", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478916", "goalieName": "Joey Daccord", "opponent": "MIN", "games": 5, "availableGames": 6, "shotsAgainst": 123.0, "goalsAgainst": 19.0, "savePct": 0.8455284552845528, "gaa": 4.3387250237868695, "gsax": -6.912000000000001, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021240", "date": "20260407", "goalieTeam": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 28.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3488.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.569 }, { "gameId": "2024020982", "date": "20250304", "goalieTeam": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 20.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3463.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.635 }, { "gameId": "2024020033", "date": "20241012", "goalieTeam": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 38.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3885.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.839 }, { "gameId": "2023021307", "date": "20240418", "goalieTeam": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.121 }, { "gameId": "2023020913", "date": "20240224", "goalieTeam": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 13.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 1329.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.924 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.0702838078291814, "adjustedSOG": 1.0702838078291814, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.0921263345195729, "adjustedSOG": 1.0702838078291814, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.05390849545642274, "goalHistoryGoals": 0.0, "goalHistoryShots": 7.0, "goalExpected": 0.058874887542288014, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.058874887542288014, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.05717527910364714, "goalProbability": 0.05717527910364714, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05768209013837233, "modelSOG": 1.0702838078291814, "historyGames": 11, "seasonGames": { "2024": 2, "2025": 6, "2026": 3 }, "historyGoals": 0.0, "historyShots": 7.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.0, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.05390849545642274, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": 42.33720930232558, "btb": { "id": "8482641", "name": "Matt Kiersted", "score": 42.33720930232558, "components": { "Goal model": 18.6046511627907, "SOG model": 34.41860465116279, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 43.95348837209303, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 50.0, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral", "Team H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Likely", "h2hGames": 0, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 313 } }, { "id": "8482159", "name": "Tyson Foerster", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "ANA", "position": "R", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 2.272727272727273, "priorSOG": 2.103448275862069, "currentTOI": 17.518181818181816, "currentFiveTOI": 12.462121212121213, "ppShare": 0.5456204379562044, "rate": 2.16635237255066, "fifty": 2.107837653346616, "inputs": { "Player": "Tyson Foerster", "Player_ID": "8482159", "Team": "PHI", "Opponent": "ANA", "Position": "R", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 2.3287189496683447, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 2.183022615402163, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 11, "Prior_GP": 29, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 6.565349544072948, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.592564200843235, "Current_PP_SOG60": 12.040133779264215, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 15.151515151515152, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 12.771933124346916, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 12.462121212121213, "Current_PP_Share": 0.5456204379562044, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.48103626042403236, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1794.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3288.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 7, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.042592592592593, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 2.653640070238358, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 2.7513415788050826, "Other_State_SOG": 0.12946708463949844, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9949214190083264, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 2.103448275862069, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/philadelphia-flyers/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:44.751521+00:00", "priorGP": 29, "currentTotalSOG": 25.0, "currentPPTOI": 2.7181818181818183, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.27 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 2.945, "currentIXG": 0.2677272727272727, "priorTOI": 17.297701149425286, "priorPPTOI": 2.0482758620689654, "deploymentChange": 0.2204806687565295, "ppTOIChange": 0.6699059561128529, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2024020675", "date": "20250111", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 17.116666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020568", "date": "20241228", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 17.45 } ], "h2hGames": 2, "h2hAvailableGames": 2, "h2hSOG": 1.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "ANA", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 239.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 26.555555555555557, "mostAllowedRank": 18, "fiveSogAllowed60": 25.834281008587897, "pkSogAllowed60": 38.93928820655967, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 43.333333333333336, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 54.0, "C": 91.0, "R": 57.0, "L": 37.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.11111111111111, "L": 4.111111111111111, "R": 6.333333333333333, "D": 6.0 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 28.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.2, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 26.555555555555557, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.333333333333333, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8480843", "team": "ANA", "name": "Lukas Dostal", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.8813559322033898, "gaa": 3.1634446397188047, "gsax": 2.846, "goalsAllowed": 21.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 23.846, "shotsAgainst": 177.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9815060369171769, "factor": 0.9815060369171769, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T16:38:16.530Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.158052025220312, "goalHistoryGoals": 39.0, "goalHistoryShots": 228.0, "goalExpected": 0.3705954062238344, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.363741628462467, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.30967681447079853, "goalProbability": 0.30492924195466115, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.47475725161373883, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 2.3447684754893445, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 6.565349544072948, "Current_PP_SOG60": 12.040133779264215, "Current_5v5_Min": 12.462121212121213, "Current_PP_Share": 0.5456204379562044, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.042592592592593, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 2.7513415788050826, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.36363636363636365, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0050173142237073, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9117211340641708, "Position_Factor": 1.0244899837906722, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1794.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3288.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.592564200843235, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 15.151515151515152, "Prior_5v5_Min": 13.494827586206897, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.48103626042403236, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0836928386540121, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.382352941176471, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0836928386540121, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9117211340641708, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 6.246663107314469, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 12.895522388059701, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2024020675", "date": "20250111", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 17.116666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020568", "date": "20241228", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 17.45 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff latest reported chart; October 21 final lineup pending", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 59, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 18, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480843", "goalieName": "Lukas Dostal", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8482159", "goals": 0, "sog": 5, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 3, "recordedAttempts": 8, "log": [ { "gameId": "2024020568", "date": "20241228", "season": 2024, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2 }, { "gameId": "2023020208", "date": "20231110", "season": 2023, "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 3 }, { "gameId": "2023020117", "date": "20231028", "season": 2023, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 3 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480843", "goalieName": "Lukas Dostal", "opponent": "PHI", "games": 5, "availableGames": 5, "shotsAgainst": 155.0, "goalsAgainst": 18.0, "savePct": 0.8838709677419355, "gaa": 3.646595385481148, "gsax": -2.507999999999999, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021082", "date": "20260318", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 28.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3704.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.611 }, { "gameId": "2025020670", "date": "20260106", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 38.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3560.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.171 }, { "gameId": "2024020568", "date": "20241228", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3472.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.781 }, { "gameId": "2023020208", "date": "20231110", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 35.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3450.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.281 }, { "gameId": "2023020117", "date": "20231028", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3584.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.648 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 2.3447684754893445, "adjustedSOG": 2.3447684754893445, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 2.3447684754893445, "adjustedSOG": 2.3447684754893445, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.158052025220312, "goalHistoryGoals": 39.0, "goalHistoryShots": 228.0, "goalExpected": 0.3705954062238344, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.3705954062238344, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.30967681447079853, "goalProbability": 0.30967681447079853, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12841064272262337, "modelSOG": 2.3447684754893445, "historyGames": 121, "seasonGames": { "2024": 81, "2025": 29, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 39.0, "historyShots": 228.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.17105263157894737, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.158052025220312, "goalieFactor": 0.9815060369171769, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 61.82739253226026, "btb": { "id": "8482159", "name": "Tyson Foerster", "score": 61.82739253226026, "components": { "Goal model": 93.25581395348837, "SOG model": 82.79069767441861, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 78.83720930232558, "Goalie": 44.85294117647059, "Team H2H": 46.06179286335944, "Goalie H2H": 47.58410880458125 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 2, "goalieH2HShots": 5, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 67 } }, { "id": "8477149", "name": "Scott Sabourin", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "UTA", "position": "R", "currentGP": 1, "currentSOG": 1.0, "priorSOG": 0.4230769230769231, "currentTOI": 9.483333333333333, "currentFiveTOI": 9.15, "ppShare": 0.046620046620046623, "rate": 0.4374357668651842, "fifty": 0.600958811849808, "inputs": { "Player": "Scott Sabourin", "Player_ID": "8477149", "Team": "TBL", "Opponent": "UTA", "Position": "R", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 0.4560037851277573, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 0.6276458357951706, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 1, "Prior_GP": 26, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 6.557377049180328, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.199224430441105, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 8.785384615384615, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 9.15, "Current_PP_Share": 0.046620046620046623, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.002277693418762268, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 20.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 429.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 1, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.626018518518518, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.15412663487938322, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.21566519899853231, "Other_State_SOG": 0.0, "Environment_Proxy": 0.85, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 0.4230769230769231, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:44.771690+00:00", "priorGP": 26.0, "currentTotalSOG": 1.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.3333333333333333, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.00 SOG/game in 1 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 1 games. 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MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "NHL.com projected lineup", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 27, "fitPct": -7.016007119025517, "index": 92.98399288097448, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 5.9259259259259265, "opponentDeltaPct": -5.689070301576365, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 7.4074074074074066, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.7770704564453013, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 74.81481481481481, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.327351233427365, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 10 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 1.4814814814814816, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.9245535697431251, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 8.888888888888891, "opponentDeltaPct": -16.04971857561877, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 1.4814814814814816, "opponentDeltaPct": -20.1847447341527, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. 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Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478872", "goalieName": "Karel Vejmelka", "opponent": "TBL", "games": 5, "availableGames": 6, "shotsAgainst": 128.0, "goalsAgainst": 18.0, "savePct": 0.859375, "gaa": 4.0538004379105415, "gsax": -5.162, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020825", "date": "20260126", "goalieTeam": "UTA", "opponent": "TBL", "shotsAgainst": 29.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.389 }, { "gameId": "2025020194", "date": "20251102", "goalieTeam": "UTA", "opponent": "TBL", "shotsAgainst": 25.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3527.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.366 }, { "gameId": "2024021145", "date": "20250327", "goalieTeam": "UTA", "opponent": "TBL", "shotsAgainst": 12.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 1754.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.834 }, { "gameId": "2024021111", "date": "20250322", "goalieTeam": "UTA", "opponent": "TBL", "shotsAgainst": 27.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.77 }, { "gameId": "2022020582", "date": "20221231", "goalieTeam": "ARI", "opponent": "TBL", "shotsAgainst": 35.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3504.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.479 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.8330000000000002, "adjustedSOG": 0.8330000000000002, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.8500000000000002, "adjustedSOG": 0.8330000000000002, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.12366256355109859, "goalHistoryGoals": 1.0, "goalHistoryShots": 12.0, "goalExpected": 0.10511317901843382, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.10511317901843382, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.09977736949334105, "goalProbability": 0.09977736949334105, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12850207117723042, "modelSOG": 0.8330000000000002, "historyGames": 28, "seasonGames": { "2024": 1, "2025": 26, "2026": 1 }, "historyGoals": 1.0, "historyShots": 12.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.08333333333333333, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.12366256355109859, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8480326", "name": "Sheldon Dries", "team": "DET", "opponent": "CGY", "position": "C", "currentGP": 6, "currentSOG": 0.8333333333333334, "priorSOG": 0.4, "currentTOI": 9.744444444444445, "currentFiveTOI": 8.308333333333334, "ppShare": 0.0005257623554153522, "rate": 0.5464188531445779, "fifty": 0.6975486165038629, "inputs": { "Player": "Sheldon Dries", "Player_ID": "8480326", "Team": "DET", "Opponent": "CGY", "Position": "C", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 0.6244749745259464, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.1553293434795324, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 6, "Prior_GP": 5, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 6.018054162487462, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.8605898123324396, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 7.680833333333333, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 8.308333333333334, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0005257623554153522, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.014470181145798972, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1902.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 2, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.430208333333333, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.02557132885943872, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.0028549991237294074, "Other_State_SOG": 0.0, "Environment_Proxy": 1.096640755468006, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 0.4, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:44.791902+00:00", "priorGP": 5, "currentTotalSOG": 5.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.002777777777777778, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.83 SOG/game in 6 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 6 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.97, "currentIXG": 0.16166666666666665, "priorTOI": 6.973333333333334, "priorPPTOI": 0.07666666666666667, "deploymentChange": 2.7711111111111117, "ppTOIChange": -0.07388888888888889, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021063", "date": "20260316", "team": "DET", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 8.383333333333333 } ], "h2hGames": 1, "h2hAvailableGames": 1, "h2hSOG": 0.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "CGY", "games": 8, "sogAllowedTotal": 237.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 29.625, "mostAllowedRank": 6, "fiveSogAllowed60": 29.8086265894977, "pkSogAllowed60": 38.789888106092, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.5, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 59.0, "C": 89.0, "R": 48.0, "L": 41.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 11.125, "L": 5.125, "R": 6.0, "D": 7.375 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 30.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.5, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 29.625, "oppPosSogAllowed": 11.125, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8482445", "team": "CGY", "name": "Devin Cooley", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 3, "savePct": 0.8681318681318682, "gaa": 4.010025062656641, "gsax": -2.561, "goalsAllowed": 12.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 9.439, "shotsAgainst": 91.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0263021756310153, "factor": 1.0263021756310153, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T16:24:22.507Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.1200983697724408, "goalHistoryGoals": 0.0, "goalHistoryShots": 7.0, "goalExpected": 0.10587257494265108, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.10865725400330052, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.10046073538435935, "goalProbability": 0.10296217906340879, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.25014436790494476, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 6, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 0.8815488098902227, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 6.018054162487462, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 8.308333333333334, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0005257623554153522, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.430208333333333, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.0028549991237294074, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0746225056341803, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9180727421999328, "Position_Factor": 1.0092969209610747, "Input_GP": 6, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1902.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.8605898123324396, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 6.216666666666667, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.014470181145798972, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0794475223145583, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.437908496732026, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0794475223145583, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9180727421999328, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 6.018054162487462, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 0.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021063", "date": "20260316", "team": "DET", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 8.383333333333333 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Reviewed October22 projected lineup and coach reports", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482445", "goalieName": "Devin Cooley", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8480326", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482445", "goalieName": "Devin Cooley", "opponent": "DET", "games": 1, "availableGames": 1, "shotsAgainst": 29.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "savePct": 0.8620689655172413, "gaa": 4.1248925809223715, "gsax": -1.0219999999999998, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020477", "date": "20251210", "goalieTeam": "CGY", "opponent": "DET", "shotsAgainst": 29.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3491.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.978 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.8815488098902227, "adjustedSOG": 0.8815488098902227, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.8995396019287987, "adjustedSOG": 0.8815488098902227, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.1200983697724408, "goalHistoryGoals": 0.0, "goalHistoryShots": 7.0, "goalExpected": 0.10803323973739906, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.10803323973739906, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.10240223997927267, "goalProbability": 0.10240223997927267, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12850525565651166, "modelSOG": 0.8815488098902227, "historyGames": 11, "seasonGames": { "2025": 5, "2026": 6 }, "historyGoals": 0.0, "historyShots": 7.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.0, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.1200983697724408, "goalieFactor": 1.0263021756310153, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": 48.741243473802506, "btb": { "id": "8480326", "name": "Sheldon Dries", "score": 48.741243473802506, "components": { "Goal model": 38.604651162790695, "SOG model": 20.232558139534884, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 55.116279069767444, "Goalie": 71.32352941176471, "Team H2H": 49.098029907429385, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 1, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 215 } }, { "id": "8482858", "name": "Ryker Evans", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "position": "D", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 0.9, "priorSOG": 0.6865671641791045, "currentTOI": 22.593333333333334, "currentFiveTOI": 19.571666666666665, "ppShare": 0.15195530726256984, "rate": 0.7716421249441822, "fifty": 0.8401085721072278, "inputs": { "Player": "Ryker Evans", "Player_ID": "8482858", "Team": "SEA", "Opponent": "MIN", "Position": "D", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 0.8396318631172976, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 0.8306505600912126, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 10, "Prior_GP": 67, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.4525249084561014, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 2.352135901185402, "Current_PP_SOG60": 8.823529411764707, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 5.294117647058823, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 18.497330845771142, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 19.571666666666665, "Current_PP_Share": 0.15195530726256984, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.08126776548186639, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 408.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2685.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 6, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.085, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.6648588924437044, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.7726927374301676, "Other_State_SOG": 0.026865671641791045, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9620662188708584, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 0.6865671641791045, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/seattle-kraken/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:44.814643+00:00", "priorGP": 67, "currentTotalSOG": 9.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.6799999999999999, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.90 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.433, "currentIXG": 0.0433, "priorTOI": 17.80497512437811, "priorPPTOI": 0.3383084577114428, "deploymentChange": 4.7883582089552235, "ppTOIChange": 0.34169154228855714, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021240", "date": "20260407", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 19.383333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020693", "date": "20260108", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 18.866666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020465", "date": "20251208", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 18.633333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024021088", "date": "20250319", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 18.466666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2024020982", "date": "20250304", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 13.15 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 6, "h2hSOG": 1.2, "opponentDefense": { "team": "MIN", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 261.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 26.1, "mostAllowedRank": 21, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.40367597004765, "pkSogAllowed60": 45.30289727831431, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 40.4, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 77.0, "C": 114.0, "R": 29.0, "L": 41.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 11.4, "L": 4.1, "R": 2.9, "D": 7.7 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 24.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 28.333333333333332, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 26.1, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.7, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8482661", "team": "MIN", "name": "Jesper Wallstedt", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 9, "savePct": 0.9152542372881356, "gaa": 2.1979363819525, "gsax": 6.934999999999999, "goalsAllowed": 20.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 26.935, "shotsAgainst": 236.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9495343259526882, "factor": 0.9495343259526882, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T18:37:27.914Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.0969521741708751, "goalHistoryGoals": 15.0, "goalHistoryShots": 114.0, "goalExpected": 0.09016838768547798, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.085617979223171, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.08622269652948206, "goalProbability": 0.08205516175350418, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.41675347759778797, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 0.9300295579401767, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.4525249084561014, "Current_PP_SOG60": 8.823529411764707, "Current_5v5_Min": 19.571666666666665, "Current_PP_Share": 0.15195530726256984, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.085, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.7726927374301676, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.957587153238364, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9748801923935355, "Position_Factor": 1.0117153945269357, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 408.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2685.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 2.352135901185402, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 5.294117647058823, "Prior_5v5_Min": 15.99054726368159, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.08126776548186639, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0240658362989326, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.34640522875817, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0240658362989326, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9748801923935355, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 2.4525249084561014, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 8.823529411764707, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 2.3333333333333335 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 0.3333333333333333 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021240", "date": "20260407", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 19.383333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020693", "date": "20260108", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 18.866666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020465", "date": "20251208", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 18.633333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024021088", "date": "20250319", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 18.466666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2024020982", "date": "20250304", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 13.15 }, { "gameId": "2024020033", "date": "20241012", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 16.833333333333332 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 69, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482661", "goalieName": "Jesper Wallstedt", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8482858", "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 1, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020693", "date": "20260108", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 1 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482661", "goalieName": "Jesper Wallstedt", "opponent": "SEA", "games": 2, "availableGames": 2, "shotsAgainst": 55.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "savePct": 0.9272727272727272, "gaa": 1.9647973802701597, "gsax": 2.874, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021240", "date": "20260407", "goalieTeam": "MIN", "opponent": "SEA", "shotsAgainst": 27.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.053 }, { "gameId": "2025020693", "date": "20260108", "goalieTeam": "MIN", "opponent": "SEA", "shotsAgainst": 28.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3729.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.821 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.9300295579401767, "adjustedSOG": 0.9300295579401767, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.9300295579401767, "adjustedSOG": 0.9300295579401767, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.0969521741708751, "goalHistoryGoals": 15.0, "goalHistoryShots": 114.0, "goalExpected": 0.09016838768547798, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.09016838768547798, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.08622269652948206, "goalProbability": 0.08622269652948206, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.057477652725672734, "modelSOG": 0.9300295579401767, "historyGames": 150, "seasonGames": { "2024": 73, "2025": 67, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 15.0, "historyShots": 114.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.13157894736842105, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.0969521741708751, "goalieFactor": 0.9495343259526882, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 37.24409295717801, "btb": { "id": "8482858", "name": "Ryker Evans", "score": 37.24409295717801, "components": { "Goal model": 31.86046511627907, "SOG model": 23.953488372093023, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 6.511627906976744, "Goalie": 23.676470588235293, "Team H2H": 44.3701044386423, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 6, "goalieH2HShots": 0, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 387 } }, { "id": "8484797", "name": "Konsta Helenius", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "WSH", "position": "R", "currentGP": 9, "currentSOG": 1.2222222222222223, "priorSOG": 1.6666666666666667, "currentTOI": 13.227777777777778, "currentFiveTOI": 11.318518518518518, "ppShare": 0.28531663187195544, "rate": 1.819117092180772, "fifty": 1.6469641497039686, "inputs": { "Player": "Konsta Helenius", "Player_ID": "8484797", "Team": "BUF", "Opponent": "WSH", "Position": "C", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.8559679976968604, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.7878878392238546, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 9, "Prior_GP": 9, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.301047120418848, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 8.553777918580707, "Current_PP_SOG60": 8.78048780487805, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 7.302231237322515, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 11.430185185185184, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 11.318518518518518, "Current_PP_Share": 0.28531663187195544, "Prior_PP_Share": 0, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 820.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2874.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 4, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.493148148148148, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 1.097100569602309, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 1.5672865280032988, "Other_State_SOG": 0.0, "Environment_Proxy": 1.0834850655013406, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.6666666666666667, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/buffalo-sabres/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:44.837032+00:00", "priorGP": 9, "currentTotalSOG": 11.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.5185185185185184, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.22 SOG/game in 9 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 9 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.102, "currentIXG": 0.12244444444444445, "priorTOI": 11.90925925925926, "priorPPTOI": 0, "deploymentChange": 1.318518518518518, "ppTOIChange": 1.5185185185185184, "h2hLog": [], "h2hGames": 0, "h2hAvailableGames": 0, "h2hSOG": null, "opponentDefense": { "team": "WSH", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 263.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 29.22222222222222, "mostAllowedRank": 7, "fiveSogAllowed60": 28.540383918869974, "pkSogAllowed60": 52.820345614607106, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.111111111111114, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "L": 48.0, "D": 68.0, "C": 72.0, "R": 75.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 8.0, "L": 5.333333333333333, "R": 8.333333333333334, "D": 7.555555555555555 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 29.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27.5, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 29.22222222222222, "oppPosSogAllowed": 8.333333333333334, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8479292", "team": "WSH", "name": "Charlie Lindgren", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 2, "savePct": 0.896551724137931, "gaa": 3.061224489795918, "gsax": 0.2989999999999995, "goalsAllowed": 6.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 6.2989999999999995, "shotsAgainst": 58.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.99868053226692, "factor": 0.99868053226692, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T14:45:41.433Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.11786443654477617, "goalHistoryGoals": 2.0, "goalHistoryShots": 26.0, "goalExpected": 0.16080669329241207, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.16059451404934943, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.1485433525190414, "goalProbability": 0.1483626719244202, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.0180680594621202, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 9, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.3643359948640854, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.301047120418848, "Current_PP_SOG60": 8.78048780487805, "Current_5v5_Min": 11.318518518518518, "Current_PP_Share": 0.28531663187195544, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.493148148148148, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.5672865280032988, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.053751909733539, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0558974457897532, "Position_Factor": 1.05, "Input_GP": 9, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 820.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2874.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 8.553777918580707, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 11.690740740740742, "Prior_PP_Share": 0, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.15, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.382352941176471, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0558974457897532, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.800214822771213, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 8.78048780487805, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff latest reported chart; October 21 final lineup pending", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 22, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. 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Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479292", "goalieName": "Charlie Lindgren", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8484797", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479292", "goalieName": "Charlie Lindgren", "opponent": "BUF", "games": 5, "availableGames": 8, "shotsAgainst": 128.0, "goalsAgainst": 16.0, "savePct": 0.875, "gaa": 3.275891486094523, "gsax": -2.283, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021028", "date": "20260312", "goalieTeam": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.161 }, { "gameId": "2025020186", "date": "20251101", "goalieTeam": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3892.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.677 }, { "gameId": "2024020637", "date": "20250106", "goalieTeam": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "shotsAgainst": 27.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3900.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.647 }, { "gameId": "2023021255", "date": "20240411", "goalieTeam": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "shotsAgainst": 16.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3458.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.149 }, { "gameId": "2023021189", "date": "20240402", "goalieTeam": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "shotsAgainst": 31.0, "goalsAgainst": 6.0, "seconds": 2733.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.083 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.3643359948640854, "adjustedSOG": 1.3643359948640854, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.3921795865960056, "adjustedSOG": 1.3643359948640854, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.11786443654477617, "goalHistoryGoals": 2.0, "goalHistoryShots": 26.0, "goalExpected": 0.16408846254327764, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.16387195311158106, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.1513330566767664, "goalProbability": 0.15114929238653463, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.018376429023175822 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12850919004641798, "modelSOG": 1.3643359948640854, "historyGames": 18, "seasonGames": { "2025": 9, "2026": 9 }, "historyGoals": 2.0, "historyShots": 26.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.07692307692307693, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.11786443654477617, "goalieFactor": 0.99868053226692, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": 53.47332421340629, "btb": { "id": "8484797", "name": "Konsta Helenius", "score": 53.47332421340629, "components": { "Goal model": 55.116279069767444, "SOG model": 50.46511627906977, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 37.2093023255814, "Goalie": 87.05882352941177, "Team H2H": 50.0, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Team H2H unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 0, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 163 } }, { "id": "8482148", "name": "Hendrix Lapierre", "team": "PIT", "opponent": "NSH", "position": "C", "currentGP": 6, "currentSOG": 0.5, "priorSOG": 0.7162162162162162, "currentTOI": 11.977777777777776, "currentFiveTOI": 10.255555555555555, "ppShare": 0.26570048309178745, "rate": 0.8158935812921647, "fifty": 0.7282548655680245, "inputs": { "Player": "Hendrix Lapierre", "Player_ID": "8482148", "Team": "PIT", "Opponent": "NSH", "Position": "C", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 0.8593716959134937, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 0.7663205345113869, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 6, "Prior_GP": 74, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.925243770314193, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.890665412649894, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 9.765172672672671, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 10.255555555555555, "Current_PP_Share": 0.26570048309178745, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.030572901066272914, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 550.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2070.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 6, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.130208333333334, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 1.001222788317037, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 1.3630988325281805, "Other_State_SOG": 0.012162162162162163, "Environment_Proxy": 1.0738773444064478, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 0.7162162162162162, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/pittsburgh-penguins/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:44.858438+00:00", "priorGP": 74, "currentTotalSOG": 3.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.5277777777777777, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.50 SOG/game in 6 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 6 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.631, "currentIXG": 0.10516666666666667, "priorTOI": 8.834009009009009, "priorPPTOI": 0.13378378378378378, "deploymentChange": 3.1437687687687674, "ppTOIChange": 1.3939939939939938, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020908", "date": "20260205", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 7.033333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020713", "date": "20260111", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 5.383333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020205", "date": "20241106", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 12.116666666666667 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 3, "h2hSOG": 1.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "NSH", "games": 8, "sogAllowedTotal": 233.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 29.125, "mostAllowedRank": 8, "fiveSogAllowed60": 26.902173913043477, "pkSogAllowed60": 37.776914108045084, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 45.125, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 82.0, "L": 44.0, "D": 67.0, "R": 40.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.25, "L": 5.5, "R": 5.0, "D": 8.375 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 27.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 3, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 30.0, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 29.125, "oppPosSogAllowed": 10.25, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8477424", "team": "NSH", "name": "Juuse Saros", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.9061032863849765, "gaa": 2.8192176670973805, "gsax": 1.6679999999999993, "goalsAllowed": 20.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 21.668, "shotsAgainst": 213.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9906396066739361, "factor": 0.9906396066739361, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T15:56:16.281Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.10260771898506996, "goalHistoryGoals": 5.0, "goalHistoryShots": 74.0, "goalExpected": 0.05326584919458097, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.052767259895272894, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.05187208006939128, "goalProbability": 0.051399235766379205, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.04728443030120738, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 6, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 0.5191212680824868, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.925243770314193, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 10.255555555555555, "Current_PP_Share": 0.26570048309178745, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.130208333333334, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.3630988325281805, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0235094259979116, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9053307495740243, "Position_Factor": 1.001731136817271, "Input_GP": 6, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 550.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2070.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.890665412649894, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 8.620945945945946, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.030572901066272914, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0382425361649739, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.437908496732026, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0382425361649739, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9053307495740243, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 2.925243770314193, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 3.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020908", "date": "20260205", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 7.033333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020713", "date": "20260111", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 5.383333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020205", "date": "20241106", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 12.116666666666667 } ], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 84, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477424", "goalieName": "Juuse Saros", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8482148", "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 5, "log": [ { "gameId": "2024020205", "date": "20241106", "season": 2024, "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 5 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477424", "goalieName": "Juuse Saros", "opponent": "PIT", "games": 5, "availableGames": 13, "shotsAgainst": 131.0, "goalsAgainst": 15.0, "savePct": 0.8854961832061069, "gaa": 3.034219250435467, "gsax": -2.5649999999999995, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020296", "date": "20251116", "goalieTeam": "NSH", "opponent": "PIT", "shotsAgainst": 21.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3562.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.064 }, { "gameId": "2025020281", "date": "20251114", "goalieTeam": "NSH", "opponent": "PIT", "shotsAgainst": 17.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3637.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.622 }, { "gameId": "2024020830", "date": "20250201", "goalieTeam": "NSH", "opponent": "PIT", "shotsAgainst": 35.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3527.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.258 }, { "gameId": "2024020515", "date": "20241219", "goalieTeam": "NSH", "opponent": "PIT", "shotsAgainst": 20.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3657.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.863 }, { "gameId": "2023021289", "date": "20240415", "goalieTeam": "NSH", "opponent": "PIT", "shotsAgainst": 38.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3414.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.628 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.5191212680824868, "adjustedSOG": 0.5191212680824868, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.5191212680824868, "adjustedSOG": 0.5191212680824868, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.10260771898506996, "goalHistoryGoals": 5.0, "goalHistoryShots": 74.0, "goalExpected": 0.05326584919458097, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.052767259895272894, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.05187208006939128, "goalProbability": 0.051399235766379205, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.04728443030120738 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12853743103402174, "modelSOG": 0.5191212680824868, "historyGames": 107, "seasonGames": { "2024": 27, "2025": 74, "2026": 6 }, "historyGoals": 5.0, "historyShots": 74.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.06756756756756757, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.10260771898506996, "goalieFactor": 0.9906396066739361, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8482703", "name": "Colton Dach", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "TOR", "position": "C", "currentGP": 5, "currentSOG": 2.4, "priorSOG": 0.9508196721311475, "currentTOI": 14.483333333333334, "currentFiveTOI": 13.316666666666666, "ppShare": 0.1783050847457627, "rate": 1.3185149415806123, "fifty": 1.8537387285877298, "inputs": { "Player": "Colton Dach", "Player_ID": "8482703", "Team": "EDM", "Opponent": "TOR", "Position": "C", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.1179798901362792, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.347067535039125, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 5, "Prior_GP": 61, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 9.011264080100124, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.014574251296206, "Current_PP_SOG60": 27.376425855513308, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 5.415569763068823, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 12.499289617486337, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 13.316666666666666, "Current_PP_Share": 0.1783050847457627, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.1783825291510521, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 263.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1475.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 3, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.365824915824916, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.9568785322829346, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.9567538663470867, "Other_State_SOG": 0.0, "Environment_Proxy": 1.1073475417853031, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 0.9508196721311475, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:44.878056+00:00", "priorGP": 61, "currentTotalSOG": 12.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.8766666666666667, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.40 SOG/game in 5 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 5 games. 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MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020520", "date": "20251216", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "TOR", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 10.95 }, { "gameId": "2025020291", "date": "20251115", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "TOR", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 9.666666666666666 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Reviewed October22 projected lineup and coach reports", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 100, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. 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Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476932", "goalieName": "Anthony Stolarz", "opponent": "EDM", "games": 5, "availableGames": 5, "shotsAgainst": 140.0, "goalsAgainst": 14.0, "savePct": 0.9, "gaa": 3.2642487046632125, "gsax": -1.5539999999999994, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020891", "date": "20260203", "goalieTeam": "TOR", "opponent": "EDM", "shotsAgainst": 36.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.709 }, { "gameId": "2024020274", "date": "20241116", "goalieTeam": "TOR", "opponent": "EDM", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3640.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.584 }, { "gameId": "2022020660", "date": "20230111", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "EDM", "shotsAgainst": 16.0, "goalsAgainst": 0.0, "seconds": 1200.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.249 }, { "gameId": "2021020049", "date": "20211019", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "EDM", "shotsAgainst": 36.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3461.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.959 }, { "gameId": "2018020494", "date": "20181214", "goalieTeam": "PHI", "opponent": "EDM", "shotsAgainst": 22.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3539.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.945 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 2.6787428552829478, "adjustedSOG": 2.6787428552829478, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 2.6787428552829478, "adjustedSOG": 2.6787428552829478, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. 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Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475660", "goalieName": "Cam Talbot", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8479639", "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 1, "log": [ { "gameId": "2021021001", "date": "20220321", "season": 2021, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475660", "goalieName": "Cam Talbot", "opponent": "VGK", "games": 5, "availableGames": 22, "shotsAgainst": 160.0, "goalsAgainst": 16.0, "savePct": 0.9, "gaa": 3.176704169424222, "gsax": 0.6329999999999996, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020970", "date": "20260304", "goalieTeam": "DET", "opponent": "VGK", "shotsAgainst": 25.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3728.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.397 }, { "gameId": "2024021115", "date": "20250322", "goalieTeam": "DET", "opponent": "VGK", "shotsAgainst": 35.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3491.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.784 }, { "gameId": "2023020544", "date": "20231228", "goalieTeam": "LAK", "opponent": "VGK", "shotsAgainst": 32.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3478.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.46 }, { "gameId": "2023020192", "date": "20231108", "goalieTeam": "LAK", "opponent": "VGK", "shotsAgainst": 38.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.55 }, { "gameId": "2023020125", "date": "20231028", "goalieTeam": "LAK", "opponent": "VGK", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3835.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.442 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.5944278370897589, "adjustedSOG": 1.5944278370897589, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.6269671807038357, "adjustedSOG": 1.5944278370897589, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. 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Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.314, "currentIXG": 0.13140000000000002, "priorTOI": 21.662345679012347, "priorPPTOI": 2.5703703703703704, "deploymentChange": 1.8109876543209857, "ppTOIChange": -0.35037037037037067, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021240", "date": "20260407", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 22.3 }, { "gameId": "2025020693", "date": "20260108", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 9.0, "toi": 25.533333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2025020465", "date": "20251208", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 18.066666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024021088", "date": "20250319", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 9.0, "toi": 21.85 }, { "gameId": "2024020982", "date": "20250304", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 9.0, "toi": 25.716666666666665 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 6, "h2hSOG": 2.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "MIN", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 261.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 26.1, "mostAllowedRank": 21, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.40367597004765, "pkSogAllowed60": 45.30289727831431, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 40.4, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 77.0, "C": 114.0, "R": 29.0, "L": 41.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 11.4, "L": 4.1, "R": 2.9, "D": 7.7 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 24.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 28.333333333333332, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 26.1, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.7, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8482661", "team": "MIN", "name": "Jesper Wallstedt", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 9, "savePct": 0.9152542372881356, "gaa": 2.1979363819525, "gsax": 6.934999999999999, "goalsAllowed": 20.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 26.935, "shotsAgainst": 236.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9495343259526882, "factor": 0.9495343259526882, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T18:37:27.914Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.06872082154153912, "goalHistoryGoals": 24.0, "goalHistoryShots": 333.0, "goalExpected": 0.1211108424896169, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.11499890218894057, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.11406424517435981, "goalProbability": 0.10863287754102072, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.5431367633339096, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.7623602246432692, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.5679893000445833, "Current_PP_SOG60": 10.81081081081081, "Current_5v5_Min": 18.691666666666666, "Current_PP_Share": 0.4960893854748603, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.085, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 2.5226145251396646, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.5, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.957587153238364, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9748801923935355, "Position_Factor": 1.0117153945269357, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1332.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2685.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.974817555761127, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 12.39193083573487, "Prior_5v5_Min": 18.016666666666666, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.6174491110091214, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0240658362989326, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.34640522875817, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0240658362989326, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9748801923935355, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 2.5679893000445833, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 10.81081081081081, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 2.3333333333333335 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 1.6666666666666667 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021240", "date": "20260407", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 22.3 }, { "gameId": "2025020693", "date": "20260108", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 9.0, "toi": 25.533333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2025020465", "date": "20251208", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 18.066666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024021088", "date": "20250319", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 9.0, "toi": 21.85 }, { "gameId": "2024020982", "date": "20250304", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 9.0, "toi": 25.716666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2024020033", "date": "20241012", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 20.0 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. 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Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 2.1, "currentIXG": 0.2625, "priorTOI": 12.256896551724138, "priorPPTOI": 0.07701149425287357, "deploymentChange": -0.3610632183908038, "ppTOIChange": -0.0540948275862069, "h2hLog": [], "h2hGames": 0, "h2hAvailableGames": 0, "h2hSOG": null, "opponentDefense": { "team": "PHI", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 383.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 31.916666666666668, "mostAllowedRank": 2, "fiveSogAllowed60": 31.042564889030356, "pkSogAllowed60": 46.879209699146834, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.75, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 113.0, "C": 130.0, "R": 73.0, "L": 67.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.833333333333334, "L": 5.583333333333333, "R": 6.083333333333333, "D": 9.416666666666666 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 27.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.833333333333332, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 31.916666666666668, "oppPosSogAllowed": 10.833333333333334, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8479361", "team": "PHI", "name": "Joseph Woll", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 6, "savePct": 0.9166666666666666, "gaa": 2.640143007746253, "gsax": 4.5710000000000015, "goalsAllowed": 16.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 20.571, "shotsAgainst": 192.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9655996195755495, "factor": 0.9655996195755495, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T14:50:13.988Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.12253448136430178, "goalHistoryGoals": 7.0, "goalHistoryShots": 62.0, "goalExpected": 0.17722073942024608, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.1711242785650872, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.16240512609165386, "goalProbability": 0.1572831646756675, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.5121961415986365, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 8, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.4462928103752202, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 7.1870632860850465, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 10.435416666666667, "Current_PP_Share": 0.005111524163568773, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.388425925925926, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.027543069323970812, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.125, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.1165260841882552, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9915761915723407, "Position_Factor": 0.9972034521823692, "Input_GP": 8, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 11.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2152.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.02689284236657, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 26.865671641791046, "Prior_5v5_Min": 11.11264367816092, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.014707118470202694, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.080647192143037, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.437908496732026, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.080647192143037, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9915761915723407, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 7.1870632860850465, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 42, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479361", "goalieName": "Joseph Woll", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8481754", "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 2, "log": [ { "gameId": "2024021176", "date": "20250330", "season": 2024, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479361", "goalieName": "Joseph Woll", "opponent": "ANA", "games": 3, "availableGames": 3, "shotsAgainst": 91.0, "goalsAgainst": 7.0, "savePct": 0.9230769230769231, "gaa": 2.6359832635983262, "gsax": 2.575, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021029", "date": "20260312", "goalieTeam": "TOR", "opponent": "ANA", "shotsAgainst": 40.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3567.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.449 }, { "gameId": "2024021176", "date": "20250330", "goalieTeam": "TOR", "opponent": "ANA", "shotsAgainst": 31.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3593.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.338 }, { "gameId": "2024020459", "date": "20241212", "goalieTeam": "TOR", "opponent": "ANA", "shotsAgainst": 20.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 2400.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.788 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.4462928103752202, "adjustedSOG": 1.4462928103752202, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.475808990178796, "adjustedSOG": 1.4462928103752202, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.12253448136430178, "goalHistoryGoals": 7.0, "goalHistoryShots": 62.0, "goalExpected": 0.18083748920433274, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.17461661078070123, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.16542902553092076, "goalProbability": 0.16022107875632222, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.5207946774598543 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12850585981016888, "modelSOG": 1.4462928103752202, "historyGames": 57, "seasonGames": { "2024": 20, "2025": 29, "2026": 8 }, "historyGoals": 7.0, "historyShots": 62.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.11290322580645161, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.12253448136430178, "goalieFactor": 0.9655996195755495, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 52.88948765454092, "btb": { "id": "8481754", "name": "Nikita Nesterenko", "score": 52.88948765454092, "components": { "Goal model": 60.46511627906977, "SOG model": 54.651162790697676, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 76.74418604651163, "Goalie": 28.970588235294116, "Team H2H": 50.0, "Goalie H2H": 49.92428831011508 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Team H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 0, "goalieH2HShots": 2, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 174 } }, { "id": "8482171", "name": "William Wallinder", "team": "DET", "opponent": "CGY", "position": "D", "currentGP": 4, "currentSOG": 1.0, "priorSOG": null, "currentTOI": 14.229166666666666, "currentFiveTOI": 11.895833333333334, "ppShare": 0.0, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:44.959697+00:00", "priorGP": null, "currentTotalSOG": 4.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.0, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.00 SOG/game in 4 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 4 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.076, "currentIXG": 0.019, "priorTOI": null, "priorPPTOI": null, "deploymentChange": null, "ppTOIChange": null, "h2hLog": [], "h2hGames": 0, "h2hAvailableGames": 0, "h2hSOG": null, "opponentDefense": { "team": "CGY", "games": 8, "sogAllowedTotal": 237.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 29.625, "mostAllowedRank": 6, "fiveSogAllowed60": 29.8086265894977, "pkSogAllowed60": 38.789888106092, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.5, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 59.0, "C": 89.0, "R": 48.0, "L": 41.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 11.125, "L": 5.125, "R": 6.0, "D": 7.375 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 30.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.5, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 29.625, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.375, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8482445", "team": "CGY", "name": "Devin Cooley", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 3, "savePct": 0.8681318681318682, "gaa": 4.010025062656641, "gsax": -2.561, "goalsAllowed": 12.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 9.439, "shotsAgainst": 91.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0263021756310153, "factor": 1.0263021756310153, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T16:24:22.507Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.06505287884064563, "goalHistoryGoals": 1.0, "goalHistoryShots": 4.0, "goalExpected": 0.0638069644465194, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.0654852264318737, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.06181391467758283, "goalProbability": 0.06338711622833704, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.15732015507542094, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 4, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 0.9808476670620798, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.5218914185639227, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 11.895833333333334, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.430208333333333, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.0, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.5, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0746225056341803, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9180727421999328, "Position_Factor": 0.9914347993653367, "Input_GP": 4, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1556.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": null, "Prior_PP_SOG60": null, "Prior_5v5_Min": null, "Prior_PP_Share": null, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0017299327797549, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.34640522875817, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0017299327797549, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9180727421999328, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 2.5218914185639227, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Reviewed October22 projected lineup and coach reports", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 1, "playerPriorWeight": 0, "currentSeasonOnly": true }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 1, "playerPriorWeight": 0, "currentSeasonOnly": true }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482445", "goalieName": "Devin Cooley", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8482171", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482445", "goalieName": "Devin Cooley", "opponent": "DET", "games": 1, "availableGames": 1, "shotsAgainst": 29.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "savePct": 0.8620689655172413, "gaa": 4.1248925809223715, "gsax": -1.0219999999999998, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020477", "date": "20251210", "goalieTeam": "CGY", "opponent": "DET", "shotsAgainst": 29.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3491.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.978 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.9808476670620798, "adjustedSOG": 0.9808476670620798, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.0008649663898774, "adjustedSOG": 0.9808476670620798, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.06505287884064563, "goalHistoryGoals": 1.0, "goalHistoryShots": 4.0, "goalExpected": 0.06510914739440755, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.06510914739440755, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.06303480951309702, "goalProbability": 0.06303480951309702, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05765499399427146, "modelSOG": 0.9808476670620798, "historyGames": 4, "seasonGames": { "2026": 4 }, "historyGoals": 1.0, "historyShots": 4.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.25, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.06505287884064563, "goalieFactor": 1.0263021756310153, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8476399", "name": "Blake Coleman", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "SEA", "position": "L", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 1.8, "priorSOG": 2.550724637681159, "currentTOI": 15.976666666666668, "currentFiveTOI": 12.683333333333334, "ppShare": 0.2771828665568369, "rate": 2.736807597798292, "fifty": 2.57193404954441, "inputs": { "Player": "Blake Coleman", "Player_ID": "8476399", "Team": "MIN", "Opponent": "SEA", "Position": "L", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 2.6758330699507393, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 2.6687728646731532, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 10, "Prior_GP": 69, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 6.622864651773981, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 9.184008163562812, "Current_PP_SOG60": 21.39673105497771, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 9.74477958236659, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 12.854999999999999, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 12.683333333333334, "Current_PP_Share": 0.2771828665568369, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.3317197248965781, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 673.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2428.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 5, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 3.9491666666666667, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 1.1592538800953833, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 1.094641337177375, "Other_State_SOG": 0.28695652173913044, "Environment_Proxy": 1.1489692159321772, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 2.550724637681159, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/minnesota-wild/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:44.979989+00:00", "priorGP": 69, "currentTotalSOG": 18.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.1216666666666666, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.80 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 2.263, "currentIXG": 0.2263, "priorTOI": 17.328743961352657, "priorPPTOI": 1.2492753623188406, "deploymentChange": -1.352077294685989, "ppTOIChange": -0.12760869565217403, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021273", "date": "20260411", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 19.4 }, { "gameId": "2025020665", "date": "20260105", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "home", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 16.333333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2025020542", "date": "20251218", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 18.35 }, { "gameId": "2024021137", "date": "20250325", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 18.05 }, { "gameId": "2024020887", "date": "20250208", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 19.516666666666666 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 7, "h2hSOG": 3.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "SEA", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 311.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 31.1, "mostAllowedRank": 3, "fiveSogAllowed60": 29.01212141229316, "pkSogAllowed60": 57.63738641280831, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 48.5, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 101.0, "R": 65.0, "L": 58.0, "D": 87.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.1, "L": 5.8, "R": 6.5, "D": 8.7 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 31.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 3, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 28.666666666666668, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 31.1, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.8, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8478916", "team": "SEA", "name": "Joey Daccord", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 5, "savePct": 0.881578947368421, "gaa": 3.8855909336211547, "gsax": -2.3970000000000002, "goalsAllowed": 18.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 15.603, "shotsAgainst": 152.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.024854248577667, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Likely starter per Daily Faceoff; no Model Goal adjustment until confirmed.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T20:31:39.541Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.10217462322805125, "goalHistoryGoals": 37.0, "goalHistoryShots": 388.0, "goalExpected": 0.1930871014994664, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.1930871014994664, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.17558983634967631, "goalProbability": 0.17558983634967631, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.8897755176302509, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 6.622864651773981, "Current_PP_SOG60": 21.39673105497771, "Current_5v5_Min": 12.683333333333334, "Current_PP_Share": 0.2771828665568369, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 3.9491666666666667, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.094641337177375, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0689197555315912, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0920680305430235, "Position_Factor": 1.0004237252952324, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 673.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2428.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 9.184008163562812, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 9.74477958236659, "Prior_5v5_Min": 13.255555555555555, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.3317197248965781, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0728857327307941, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.062091503267974, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0728857327307941, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0920680305430235, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 6.622864651773981, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 21.39673105497771, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 4, "sogPerGame": 2.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 3.6666666666666665 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021273", "date": "20260411", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 19.4 }, { "gameId": "2025020665", "date": "20260105", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "home", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 16.333333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2025020542", "date": "20251218", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 18.35 }, { "gameId": "2024021137", "date": "20250325", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 18.05 }, { "gameId": "2024020887", "date": "20250208", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 19.516666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020843", "date": "20250202", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 19.416666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2024020087", "date": "20241019", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 19.233333333333334 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 187, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 23, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. 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Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476434", "goalieName": "John Gibson", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8482074", "goals": 1, "sog": 5, "shootingPct": 0.2, "gamesWithAttempts": 3, "recordedAttempts": 6, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020477", "date": "20251210", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 3 }, { "gameId": "2024020648", "date": "20250107", "season": 2024, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2023021268", "date": "20240412", "season": 2023, "goals": 1, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476434", "goalieName": "John Gibson", "opponent": "CGY", "games": 5, "availableGames": 25, "shotsAgainst": 152.0, "goalsAgainst": 14.0, "savePct": 0.9078947368421053, "gaa": 2.9964328180737216, "gsax": 0.16800000000000015, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021063", "date": "20260316", "goalieTeam": "DET", "opponent": "CGY", "shotsAgainst": 27.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3589.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.703 }, { "gameId": "2025020477", "date": "20251210", "goalieTeam": "DET", "opponent": "CGY", "shotsAgainst": 37.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.965 }, { "gameId": "2024021203", "date": "20250403", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "CGY", "shotsAgainst": 26.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 2381.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.555 }, { "gameId": "2024020818", "date": "20250130", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "CGY", "shotsAgainst": 29.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3525.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.091 }, { "gameId": "2024020648", "date": "20250107", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "CGY", "shotsAgainst": 33.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3725.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.854 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.061670797492346, "adjustedSOG": 1.061670797492346, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.061670797492346, "adjustedSOG": 1.061670797492346, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.1168305587702605, "goalHistoryGoals": 25.0, "goalHistoryShots": 224.0, "goalExpected": 0.12403559250109887, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.12403559250109887, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.11665160025566876, "goalProbability": 0.11665160025566876, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.128531010415644, "modelSOG": 1.061670797492346, "historyGames": 130, "seasonGames": { "2024": 54, "2025": 74, "2026": 2 }, "historyGoals": 25.0, "historyShots": 224.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.11160714285714286, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.1168305587702605, "goalieFactor": 1.0182492009293351, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8482169", "name": "Helge Grans", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "ANA", "position": "D", "currentGP": 1, "currentSOG": 0.0, "priorSOG": null, "currentTOI": 12.433333333333334, "currentFiveTOI": 12.433333333333334, "ppShare": 0.0, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/philadelphia-flyers/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:45.003814+00:00", "priorGP": null, "currentTotalSOG": 0.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.0, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.00 SOG/game in 1 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 1 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.0, "currentIXG": 0.0, "priorTOI": null, "priorPPTOI": null, "deploymentChange": null, "ppTOIChange": null, "h2hLog": [], "h2hGames": 0, "h2hAvailableGames": 0, "h2hSOG": null, "opponentDefense": { "team": "ANA", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 239.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 26.555555555555557, "mostAllowedRank": 18, "fiveSogAllowed60": 25.834281008587897, "pkSogAllowed60": 38.93928820655967, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 43.333333333333336, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 54.0, "C": 91.0, "R": 57.0, "L": 37.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.11111111111111, "L": 4.111111111111111, "R": 6.333333333333333, "D": 6.0 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 28.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.2, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 26.555555555555557, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.0, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8480843", "team": "ANA", "name": "Lukas Dostal", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.8813559322033898, "gaa": 3.1634446397188047, "gsax": 2.846, "goalsAllowed": 21.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 23.846, "shotsAgainst": 177.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9815060369171769, "factor": 0.9815060369171769, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T16:38:16.530Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.05493278598542972, "goalHistoryGoals": 0.0, "goalHistoryShots": 5.0, "goalExpected": 0.0, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.0, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.0, "goalProbability": 0.0, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 1, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 0.0, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 12.433333333333334, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.042592592592593, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.0, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0050173142237073, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9117211340641708, "Position_Factor": 0.9807721620568941, "Input_GP": 1, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 153.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": null, "Prior_PP_SOG60": null, "Prior_5v5_Min": null, "Prior_PP_Share": null, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9131859898857464, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.34640522875817, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9131859898857464, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9117211340641708, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 0, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff latest reported chart; October 21 final lineup pending", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 1, "playerPriorWeight": 0, "currentSeasonOnly": true }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 1, "playerPriorWeight": 0, "currentSeasonOnly": true }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480843", "goalieName": "Lukas Dostal", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8482169", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480843", "goalieName": "Lukas Dostal", "opponent": "PHI", "games": 5, "availableGames": 5, "shotsAgainst": 155.0, "goalsAgainst": 18.0, "savePct": 0.8838709677419355, "gaa": 3.646595385481148, "gsax": -2.507999999999999, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021082", "date": "20260318", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 28.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3704.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.611 }, { "gameId": "2025020670", "date": "20260106", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 38.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3560.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.171 }, { "gameId": "2024020568", "date": "20241228", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3472.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.781 }, { "gameId": "2023020208", "date": "20231110", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 35.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3450.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.281 }, { "gameId": "2023020117", "date": "20231028", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3584.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.648 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.0, "adjustedSOG": 0.0, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.0, "adjustedSOG": 0.0, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.05493278598542972, "goalHistoryGoals": 0.0, "goalHistoryShots": 5.0, "goalExpected": 0.0, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.0, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.0, "goalProbability": 0.0, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.057679425284701206, "modelSOG": 0.0, "historyGames": 7, "seasonGames": { "2024": 6, "2026": 1 }, "historyGoals": 0.0, "historyShots": 5.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.0, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.05493278598542972, "goalieFactor": 0.9815060369171769, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8479999", "name": "Casey Mittelstadt", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "position": "L", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 1.3, "priorSOG": 1.1267605633802817, "currentTOI": 13.653333333333332, "currentFiveTOI": 12.091666666666667, "ppShare": 0.2718261532596264, "rate": 1.173267830911764, "fifty": 1.2490526391821162, "inputs": { "Player": "Casey Mittelstadt", "Player_ID": "8479999", "Team": "BOS", "Opponent": "SJS", "Position": "C", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.1539561805703547, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.2919629903448142, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 10, "Prior_GP": 71, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.954514128187457, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.300530326340748, "Current_PP_SOG60": 5.049088359046284, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 6.61951909476662, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 12.35494131455399, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 12.091666666666667, "Current_PP_Share": 0.2718261532596264, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.3784951751560295, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 713.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2623.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 6, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.950833333333334, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 1.5041961452011663, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 1.3457659804295337, "Other_State_SOG": 0.01267605633802817, "Environment_Proxy": 1.0796680236682055, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.1267605633802817, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/boston-bruins/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:45.024091+00:00", "priorGP": 71, "currentTotalSOG": 13.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.1883333333333332, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.30 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.502, "currentIXG": 0.1502, "priorTOI": 15.16244131455399, "priorPPTOI": 1.6596244131455398, "deploymentChange": -1.509107981220657, "ppTOIChange": -0.4712910798122065, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2026020105", "date": "20261013", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 12.816666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025021027", "date": "20260312", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 19.05 }, { "gameId": "2024021117", "date": "20250322", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 17.133333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020996", "date": "20250306", "team": "COL", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 12.6 }, { "gameId": "2024020520", "date": "20241219", "team": "COL", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 15.016666666666667 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 6, "h2hSOG": 1.6, "opponentDefense": { "team": "SJS", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 286.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 28.6, "mostAllowedRank": 10, "fiveSogAllowed60": 25.210423540502322, "pkSogAllowed60": 49.90958408679928, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 47.8, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 86.0, "C": 94.0, "R": 53.0, "L": 53.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.4, "L": 5.3, "R": 5.3, "D": 8.6 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 30.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 29.833333333333332, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 28.6, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.3, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8477968", "team": "SJS", "name": "Alex Nedeljkovic", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 4, "savePct": 0.9173553719008265, "gaa": 2.372479240806643, "gsax": 4.638, "goalsAllowed": 10.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 14.638, "shotsAgainst": 121.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9618500831522029, "factor": 0.9618500831522029, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T16:06:01.887Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.15048279520508728, "goalHistoryGoals": 32.0, "goalHistoryShots": 198.0, "goalExpected": 0.20230771739763423, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.19458969480124685, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.18315646770121954, "goalProbability": 0.17682765933433925, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.6328808366880295, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.3443910124205012, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.954514128187457, "Current_PP_SOG60": 5.049088359046284, "Current_5v5_Min": 12.091666666666667, "Current_PP_Share": 0.2718261532596264, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.950833333333334, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.3457659804295337, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9930883597207428, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0259958714356598, "Position_Factor": 0.999629808538782, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 713.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2623.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.300530326340748, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 6.61951909476662, "Prior_5v5_Min": 12.96924882629108, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.3784951751560295, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0234990316333117, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.062091503267974, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0234990316333117, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0259958714356598, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.954514128187457, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 5.049088359046284, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 4, "sogPerGame": 1.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 3.0 }, { "season": "2026", "label": "2026–27", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 2.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2026020105", "date": "20261013", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 12.816666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025021027", "date": "20260312", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 19.05 }, { "gameId": "2024021117", "date": "20250322", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 17.133333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020996", "date": "20250306", "team": "COL", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 12.6 }, { "gameId": "2024020520", "date": "20241219", "team": "COL", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 15.016666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020089", "date": "20241020", "team": "COL", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 16.8 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "ppAssignmentSourceDate": "2026-10-12T22:24:39.463Z", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 111, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 19, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477968", "goalieName": "Alex Nedeljkovic", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8479999", "goals": 1, "sog": 11, "shootingPct": 0.09090909090909091, "gamesWithAttempts": 6, "recordedAttempts": 17, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021027", "date": "20260312", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 3 }, { "gameId": "2024020980", "date": "20250304", "season": 2024, "goals": 1, "sog": 2, "attempts": 3 }, { "gameId": "2023021125", "date": "20240324", "season": 2023, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 3 }, { "gameId": "2023020301", "date": "20231124", "season": 2023, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2 }, { "gameId": "2022020361", "date": "20221130", "season": 2022, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2 }, { "gameId": "2022020144", "date": "20221031", "season": 2022, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 4 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477968", "goalieName": "Alex Nedeljkovic", "opponent": "BOS", "games": 5, "availableGames": 8, "shotsAgainst": 134.0, "goalsAgainst": 17.0, "savePct": 0.8731343283582089, "gaa": 3.7850207186591627, "gsax": -3.2609999999999997, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021027", "date": "20260312", "goalieTeam": "SJS", "opponent": "BOS", "shotsAgainst": 41.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.661 }, { "gameId": "2024020952", "date": "20250301", "goalieTeam": "PIT", "opponent": "BOS", "shotsAgainst": 25.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3474.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.566 }, { "gameId": "2023021279", "date": "20240413", "goalieTeam": "PIT", "opponent": "BOS", "shotsAgainst": 16.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 1895.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.22 }, { "gameId": "2023021012", "date": "20240309", "goalieTeam": "PIT", "opponent": "BOS", "shotsAgainst": 23.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.955 }, { "gameId": "2023020589", "date": "20240104", "goalieTeam": "PIT", "opponent": "BOS", "shotsAgainst": 29.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.337 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.3443910124205012, "adjustedSOG": 1.3443910124205012, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.3443910124205012, "adjustedSOG": 1.3443910124205012, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.15048279520508728, "goalHistoryGoals": 32.0, "goalHistoryShots": 198.0, "goalExpected": 0.20230771739763423, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.20230771739763423, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.18315646770121954, "goalProbability": 0.18315646770121954, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12843872971116008, "modelSOG": 1.3443910124205012, "historyGames": 162, "seasonGames": { "2024": 81, "2025": 71, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 32.0, "historyShots": 198.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.16161616161616163, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.15048279520508728, "goalieFactor": 0.9618500831522029, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 58.16180830377593, "btb": { "id": "8479999", "name": "Casey Mittelstadt", "score": 58.16180830377593, "components": { "Goal model": 67.44186046511628, "SOG model": 49.30232558139535, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 46.97674418604651, "Goalie": 97.5, "Team H2H": 53.867493472584854, "Goalie H2H": 46.805214921905254 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 6, "goalieH2HShots": 11, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 109 } }, { "id": "8480860", "name": "Kevin Bahl", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "DET", "position": "D", "currentGP": 8, "currentSOG": 1.125, "priorSOG": 0.75, "currentTOI": 21.629166666666666, "currentFiveTOI": 17.977083333333333, "ppShare": 0.008977900552486187, "rate": 0.7748318051704222, "fifty": 0.8814092306581771, "inputs": { "Player": "Kevin Bahl", "Player_ID": "8480860", "Team": "CGY", "Opponent": "DET", "Position": "D", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 0.7578941894101179, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 0.8596088942206086, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 8, "Prior_GP": 76, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.3375825704021325, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 2.2761538835659745, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 17.994747807017543, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 17.977083333333333, "Current_PP_Share": 0.008977900552486187, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.06917747712689355, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 13.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1448.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 5, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.265740740740741, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.11533613206369656, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.03829739615305913, "Other_State_SOG": 0.07171052631578947, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9911254066849144, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 0.75, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:45.045010+00:00", "priorGP": 76, "currentTotalSOG": 9.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.027083333333333334, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.12 SOG/game in 8 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 8 games. 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Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476434", "goalieName": "John Gibson", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8480860", "goals": 0, "sog": 5, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 3, "recordedAttempts": 6, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020477", "date": "20251210", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2024021203", "date": "20250403", "season": 2024, "goals": 0, "sog": 4, "attempts": 4 }, { "gameId": "2024020648", "date": "20250107", "season": 2024, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476434", "goalieName": "John Gibson", "opponent": "CGY", "games": 5, "availableGames": 25, "shotsAgainst": 152.0, "goalsAgainst": 14.0, "savePct": 0.9078947368421053, "gaa": 2.9964328180737216, "gsax": 0.16800000000000015, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021063", "date": "20260316", "goalieTeam": "DET", "opponent": "CGY", "shotsAgainst": 27.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3589.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.703 }, { "gameId": "2025020477", "date": "20251210", "goalieTeam": "DET", "opponent": "CGY", "shotsAgainst": 37.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.965 }, { "gameId": "2024021203", "date": "20250403", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "CGY", "shotsAgainst": 26.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 2381.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.555 }, { "gameId": "2024020818", "date": "20250130", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "CGY", "shotsAgainst": 29.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3525.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.091 }, { "gameId": "2024020648", "date": "20250107", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "CGY", "shotsAgainst": 33.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3725.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.854 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.1743069863270275, "adjustedSOG": 1.1743069863270275, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.1743069863270275, "adjustedSOG": 1.1743069863270275, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.055518216371558356, "goalHistoryGoals": 8.0, "goalHistoryShots": 148.0, "goalExpected": 0.06519542935353653, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.06519542935353653, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.06311564921781368, "goalProbability": 0.06311564921781368, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05768517660146472, "modelSOG": 1.1743069863270275, "historyGames": 157, "seasonGames": { "2024": 73, "2025": 76, "2026": 8 }, "historyGoals": 8.0, "historyShots": 148.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.05405405405405406, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.055518216371558356, "goalieFactor": 1.0182492009293351, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 34.402779756581076, "btb": { "id": "8480860", "name": "Kevin Bahl", "score": 34.402779756581076, "components": { "Goal model": 22.325581395348838, "SOG model": 39.53488372093023, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 15.581395348837209, "Goalie": 2.5, "Team H2H": 42.43824061056437, "Goalie H2H": 47.87043664996421 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 3, "goalieH2HShots": 5, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 412 } }, { "id": "8482803", "name": "Olen Zellweger", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "WSH", "position": "D", "currentGP": 9, "currentSOG": 2.4444444444444446, "priorSOG": 1.5657894736842106, "currentTOI": 19.544444444444444, "currentFiveTOI": 17.644444444444446, "ppShare": 0.11619113097284291, "rate": 1.8770283478784346, "fifty": 2.188688142573399, "inputs": { "Player": "Olen Zellweger", "Player_ID": "8482803", "Team": "BUF", "Opponent": "WSH", "Position": "D", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.502451817886969, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.0820573460802623, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 9, "Prior_GP": 76, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 7.934508816120907, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.4689458857538975, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 6.205113473139902, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 16.81170321637427, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 17.644444444444446, "Current_PP_Share": 0.11619113097284291, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.14578445624985187, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 338.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2909.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 4, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.493148148148148, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.6870232519175952, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.6382550959347109, "Other_State_SOG": 0.11769005847953216, "Environment_Proxy": 1.0834850655013406, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.5657894736842106, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/buffalo-sabres/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:45.066760+00:00", "priorGP": 76, "currentTotalSOG": 22.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.625925925925926, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.44 SOG/game in 9 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 9 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.384, "currentIXG": 0.15377777777777776, "priorTOI": 16.97609649122807, "priorPPTOI": 0.7633771929824561, "deploymentChange": 2.5683479532163744, "ppTOIChange": -0.1374512670565301, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020663", "date": "20260105", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 19.666666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2025020440", "date": "20251205", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 16.95 }, { "gameId": "2024021033", "date": "20250311", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 21.383333333333333 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 3, "h2hSOG": 1.6666666666666667, "opponentDefense": { "team": "WSH", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 263.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 29.22222222222222, "mostAllowedRank": 7, "fiveSogAllowed60": 28.540383918869974, "pkSogAllowed60": 52.820345614607106, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.111111111111114, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "L": 48.0, "D": 68.0, "C": 72.0, "R": 75.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 8.0, "L": 5.333333333333333, "R": 8.333333333333334, "D": 7.555555555555555 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 29.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27.5, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 29.22222222222222, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.555555555555555, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8479292", "team": "WSH", "name": "Charlie Lindgren", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 2, "savePct": 0.896551724137931, "gaa": 3.061224489795918, "gsax": 0.2989999999999995, "goalsAllowed": 6.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 6.2989999999999995, "shotsAgainst": 58.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.99868053226692, "factor": 0.99868053226692, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T14:45:41.433Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.058669581873511144, "goalHistoryGoals": 16.0, "goalHistoryShots": 271.0, "goalExpected": 0.14235545050845536, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.14216761708488138, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.13268708512751248, "goalProbability": 0.13252415947243928, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.016292565507319834, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 9, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 2.4263927909929035, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 7.934508816120907, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 17.644444444444446, "Current_PP_Share": 0.11619113097284291, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.493148148148148, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.6382550959347109, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.1111111111111111, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.053751909733539, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0558974457897532, "Position_Factor": 0.9950902926097296, "Input_GP": 9, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 338.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2909.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.4689458857538975, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 6.205113473139902, "Prior_5v5_Min": 14.868640350877193, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.14578445624985187, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0134856714740588, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.34640522875817, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0134856714740588, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0558974457897532, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 8.323699421965317, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 1.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020663", "date": "20260105", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 19.666666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2025020440", "date": "20251205", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 16.95 }, { "gameId": "2024021033", "date": "20250311", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 21.383333333333333 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff latest reported chart; October 21 final lineup pending", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 173, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 7, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479292", "goalieName": "Charlie Lindgren", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8482803", "goals": 0, "sog": 4, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 4, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020663", "date": "20260105", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 4, "attempts": 4 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479292", "goalieName": "Charlie Lindgren", "opponent": "BUF", "games": 5, "availableGames": 8, "shotsAgainst": 128.0, "goalsAgainst": 16.0, "savePct": 0.875, "gaa": 3.275891486094523, "gsax": -2.283, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021028", "date": "20260312", "goalieTeam": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.161 }, { "gameId": "2025020186", "date": "20251101", "goalieTeam": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3892.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.677 }, { "gameId": "2024020637", "date": "20250106", "goalieTeam": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "shotsAgainst": 27.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3900.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.647 }, { "gameId": "2023021255", "date": "20240411", "goalieTeam": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "shotsAgainst": 16.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3458.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.149 }, { "gameId": "2023021189", "date": "20240402", "goalieTeam": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "shotsAgainst": 31.0, "goalsAgainst": 6.0, "seconds": 2733.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.083 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 2.4263927909929035, "adjustedSOG": 2.4263927909929035, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 2.4759110112172484, "adjustedSOG": 2.4263927909929035, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.058669581873511144, "goalHistoryGoals": 16.0, "goalHistoryShots": 271.0, "goalExpected": 0.14526066378413813, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.14506899702538917, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.13520315748886505, "goalProbability": 0.135037388795418, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.016576869344706036 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05766414875072632, "modelSOG": 2.4263927909929035, "historyGames": 147, "seasonGames": { "2024": 62, "2025": 76, "2026": 9 }, "historyGoals": 16.0, "historyShots": 271.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.05904059040590406, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.058669581873511144, "goalieFactor": 0.99868053226692, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 54.02894263583628, "btb": { "id": "8482803", "name": "Olen Zellweger", "score": 54.02894263583628, "components": { "Goal model": 49.53488372093023, "SOG model": 84.65116279069767, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 48.83720930232558, "Goalie": 87.05882352941177, "Team H2H": 42.98051817634063, "Goalie H2H": 48.52726742490522 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 3, "goalieH2HShots": 4, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 158 } }, { "id": "8478109", "name": "Victor Olofsson", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "CBJ", "position": "L", "currentGP": 4, "currentSOG": 2.25, "priorSOG": 1.8846153846153846, "currentTOI": 13.1375, "currentFiveTOI": 10.995833333333334, "ppShare": 0.34730113636363635, "rate": 1.9326099635293152, "fifty": 2.0396047358390956, "inputs": { "Player": "Victor Olofsson", "Player_ID": "8478109", "Team": "VGK", "Opponent": "CBJ", "Position": "L", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 2.101238460017256, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 2.2215464460419834, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 4, "Prior_GP": 78, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 9.549071618037136, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.988446823347594, "Current_PP_SOG60": 14.723926380368098, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 13.80216891225764, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 11.098301282051281, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 10.995833333333334, "Current_PP_Share": 0.34730113636363635, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.517953146211552, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 489.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1408.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 4, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.392708333333333, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 2.1489766869263986, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 1.872893732244318, "Other_State_SOG": 0.05769230769230769, "Environment_Proxy": 1.0241190783267258, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.8846153846153846, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/vegas-golden-knights/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:45.088443+00:00", "priorGP": 78, "currentTotalSOG": 9.0, "currentPPTOI": 2.0375, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.25 SOG/game in 4 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 4 games. 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Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475660", "goalieName": "Cam Talbot", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8478109", "goals": 0, "sog": 6, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 2, "recordedAttempts": 6, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020860", "date": "20260131", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2021020461", "date": "20211216", "season": 2021, "goals": 0, "sog": 5, "attempts": 5 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475660", "goalieName": "Cam Talbot", "opponent": "VGK", "games": 5, "availableGames": 22, "shotsAgainst": 160.0, "goalsAgainst": 16.0, "savePct": 0.9, "gaa": 3.176704169424222, "gsax": 0.6329999999999996, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020970", "date": "20260304", "goalieTeam": "DET", "opponent": "VGK", "shotsAgainst": 25.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3728.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.397 }, { "gameId": "2024021115", "date": "20250322", "goalieTeam": "DET", "opponent": "VGK", "shotsAgainst": 35.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3491.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.784 }, { "gameId": "2023020544", "date": "20231228", "goalieTeam": "LAK", "opponent": "VGK", "shotsAgainst": 32.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3478.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.46 }, { "gameId": "2023020192", "date": "20231108", "goalieTeam": "LAK", "opponent": "VGK", "shotsAgainst": 38.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.55 }, { "gameId": "2023020125", "date": "20231028", "goalieTeam": "LAK", "opponent": "VGK", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3835.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.442 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 2.261230115357219, "adjustedSOG": 2.261230115357219, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 2.3073776687318563, "adjustedSOG": 2.261230115357219, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.12288097595126116, "goalHistoryGoals": 32.0, "goalHistoryShots": 265.0, "goalExpected": 0.28353281982191625, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.28655834441784667, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.24688159547746547, "goalProbability": 0.2491567302603636, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.22751347828981472 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12851556222210317, "modelSOG": 2.261230115357219, "historyGames": 138, "seasonGames": { "2024": 56, "2025": 78, "2026": 4 }, "historyGoals": 32.0, "historyShots": 265.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.12075471698113208, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.12288097595126116, "goalieFactor": 1.0106708091071457, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8483546", "name": "Marshall Rifai", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "EDM", "position": "D", "currentGP": 2, "currentSOG": 1.0, "priorSOG": 1, "currentTOI": 14.15, "currentFiveTOI": 12.708333333333334, "ppShare": 0.014423076923076924, "rate": 1.1337359727933025, "fifty": 1.105881327691929, "inputs": { "Player": "Marshall Rifai", "Player_ID": "8483546", "Team": "TOR", "Opponent": "EDM", "Position": "D", "Current_GP": 2, "Prior_GP": 1, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.721311475409836, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.206896551724138, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 11.795833333333334, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 12.708333333333334, "Current_PP_Share": 0.014423076923076924, "Prior_PP_Share": 0, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 9.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 624.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 1, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Measured game-matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Historical skater-team PP minute approximation, existing hybrid method", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.3053872053872055, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.043467851592851596, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.06209693084693085, "Other_State_SOG": 0.0, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9716922687020597, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1, "Status": "Historical input object restored from saved prior summaries", "Availability_Note": "Conditional on dressing", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 0.8817125529083046, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 0.5406809547323508 }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/toronto-maple-leafs/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:45.108340+00:00", "priorGP": 1, "currentTotalSOG": 2.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.075, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.00 SOG/game in 2 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 2 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.07, "currentIXG": 0.035, "priorTOI": 9.666666666666666, "priorPPTOI": 0, "deploymentChange": 4.483333333333334, "ppTOIChange": 0.075, "h2hLog": [], "h2hGames": 0, "h2hAvailableGames": 0, "h2hSOG": null, "opponentDefense": { "team": "EDM", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 239.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 26.555555555555557, "mostAllowedRank": 18, "fiveSogAllowed60": 25.09786377362711, "pkSogAllowed60": 57.79388917659244, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 40.111111111111114, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 74.0, "C": 64.0, "L": 57.0, "R": 44.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.111111111111111, "L": 6.333333333333333, "R": 4.888888888888889, "D": 8.222222222222221 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 28.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 24.5, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 26.555555555555557, "oppPosSogAllowed": 8.222222222222221, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8477465", "team": "EDM", "name": "Tristan Jarry", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 3, "savePct": 0.8732394366197183, "gaa": 2.974387221151198, "gsax": -2.739, "goalsAllowed": 9.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 6.261, "shotsAgainst": 71.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0280169850571896, "factor": 1.0280169850571896, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-23T18:50:20.460Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.06568316723773591, "goalHistoryGoals": 1.0, "goalHistoryShots": 3.0, "goalExpected": 0.06800453019448595, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.06990981210076606, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.06574375879484555, "goalProbability": 0.06752208566208268, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.1778326867237126, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": null, "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 2, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.035341824311669, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.721311475409836, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 12.708333333333334, "Current_PP_Share": 0.014423076923076924, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.3053872053872055, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.06209693084693085, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9913228889134689, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0841268017286898, "Position_Factor": 1.0175103897192914, "Input_GP": 2, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 9.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 624.0, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0564712492976214, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.34640522875817, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0564712492976214, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0841268017286898, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 4.721311475409836, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477465", "goalieName": "Tristan Jarry", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8483546", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477465", "goalieName": "Tristan Jarry", "opponent": "TOR", "games": 5, "availableGames": 13, "shotsAgainst": 102.0, "goalsAgainst": 16.0, "savePct": 0.8431372549019608, "gaa": 4.100811618966254, "gsax": -2.944, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020499", "date": "20251213", "goalieTeam": "EDM", "opponent": "TOR", "shotsAgainst": 28.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.854 }, { "gameId": "2025020396", "date": "20251129", "goalieTeam": "PIT", "opponent": "TOR", "shotsAgainst": 13.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 2107.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.626 }, { "gameId": "2025020199", "date": "20251103", "goalieTeam": "PIT", "opponent": "TOR", "shotsAgainst": 20.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3452.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.296 }, { "gameId": "2024020433", "date": "20241207", "goalieTeam": "PIT", "opponent": "TOR", "shotsAgainst": 27.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3571.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.846 }, { "gameId": "2023020466", "date": "20231216", "goalieTeam": "PIT", "opponent": "TOR", "shotsAgainst": 14.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 1316.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.434 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.035341824311669, "adjustedSOG": 1.035341824311669, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.0564712492976214, "adjustedSOG": 1.035341824311669, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.06568316723773591, "goalHistoryGoals": 1.0, "goalHistoryShots": 3.0, "goalExpected": 0.06939237774947546, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.07133654295996537, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.06703946470582171, "goalProbability": 0.0688515320713674, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.18120673655456915 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05765366225486799, "modelSOG": 1.035341824311669, "historyGames": 3, "seasonGames": { "2025": 1, "2026": 2 }, "historyGoals": 1.0, "historyShots": 3.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.3333333333333333, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.06568316723773591, "goalieFactor": 1.0280169850571896, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": 47.47640218878249, "btb": { "id": "8483546", "name": "Marshall Rifai", "score": 47.47640218878249, "components": { "Goal model": 23.488372093023255, "SOG model": 31.86046511627907, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 44.651162790697676, "Goalie": 92.20588235294117, "Team H2H": 50.0, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Team H2H unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 0, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 242 } }, { "id": "8480803", "name": "Evan Bouchard", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "TOR", "position": "D", "currentGP": 9, "currentSOG": 3.4444444444444446, "priorSOG": 2.6951219512195124, "currentTOI": 25.56851851851852, "currentFiveTOI": 19.477777777777778, "ppShare": 0.7244374259771023, "rate": 3.1131959425303015, "fifty": 3.3820182340482052, "inputs": { "Player": "Evan Bouchard", "Player_ID": "8480803", "Team": "EDM", "Opponent": "TOR", "Position": "D", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 2.8821684220310724, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 3.210258423112085, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 9, "Prior_GP": 82, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 7.872219053051911, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.572569239506888, "Current_PP_SOG60": 9.809264305177111, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 10.307953018173318, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 19.109871273712734, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 19.477777777777778, "Current_PP_Share": 0.7244374259771023, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.8540358722015391, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1835.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2533.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 5, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.365824915824916, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 4.095825161804987, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 3.887204390264004, "Other_State_SOG": 0.3296747967479675, "Environment_Proxy": 1.1073475417853031, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 2.6951219512195124, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:45.129548+00:00", "priorGP": 82, "currentTotalSOG": 31.0, "currentPPTOI": 3.398148148148148, "volumeNote": "Observed 3.44 SOG/game in 9 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 9 games. 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Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.269, "currentIXG": 0.0538, "priorTOI": 9.641489361702128, "priorPPTOI": 0.00921985815602837, "deploymentChange": 0.8085106382978715, "ppTOIChange": 0.02078014184397163, "h2hLog": [], "h2hGames": 0, "h2hAvailableGames": 0, "h2hSOG": null, "opponentDefense": { "team": "PIT", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 279.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.9, "mostAllowedRank": 12, "fiveSogAllowed60": 26.122338261223383, "pkSogAllowed60": 50.11600928074246, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 42.4, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 55.0, "L": 47.0, "D": 70.0, "C": 107.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.7, "L": 4.7, "R": 5.5, "D": 7.0 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 25.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 3, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 28.333333333333332, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.9, "oppPosSogAllowed": 4.7, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8481668", "team": "PIT", "name": "Arturs Silovs", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 6, "savePct": 0.8662420382165605, "gaa": 3.5131744040150563, "gsax": -1.0760000000000005, "goalsAllowed": 21.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 19.924, "shotsAgainst": 157.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0136052553954562, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Likely starter per Daily Faceoff; no Model Goal adjustment until confirmed.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T15:01:09.604Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.13181329648395518, "goalHistoryGoals": 6.0, "goalHistoryShots": 43.0, "goalExpected": 0.09964561024447607, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.09964561024447607, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.0948418600257458, "goalProbability": 0.0948418600257458, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 5, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 0.7559602324080054, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.787234042553192, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 10.026666666666667, "Current_PP_Share": 0.004805125467164976, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.906041666666667, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.023574145755472505, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.011083778612368, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0249142728068137, "Position_Factor": 0.9882936962452362, "Input_GP": 5, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 9.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1873.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.246244675285853, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 9.490070921985817, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.0022832918299705834, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9642349903163332, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.062091503267974, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9642349903163332, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0249142728068137, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 4.787234042553192, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 57, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. 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Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481668", "goalieName": "Arturs Silovs", "opponent": "NSH", "games": 2, "availableGames": 2, "shotsAgainst": 62.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "savePct": 0.9193548387096774, "gaa": 2.397123451857771, "gsax": 1.6559999999999997, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020281", "date": "20251114", "goalieTeam": "PIT", "opponent": "NSH", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3644.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.231 }, { "gameId": "2022021010", "date": "20230306", "goalieTeam": "VAN", "opponent": "NSH", "shotsAgainst": 32.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3865.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.425 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.7559602324080054, "adjustedSOG": 0.7559602324080054, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.7713879922530668, "adjustedSOG": 0.7559602324080054, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.13181329648395518, "goalHistoryGoals": 6.0, "goalHistoryShots": 43.0, "goalExpected": 0.10167919412701641, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.10167919412701641, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.09668070467422162, "goalProbability": 0.09668070467422162, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1284930139720559, "modelSOG": 0.7559602324080054, "historyGames": 52, "seasonGames": { "2025": 47, "2026": 5 }, "historyGoals": 6.0, "historyShots": 43.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.13953488372093023, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.13181329648395518, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": 42.98837209302326, "btb": { "id": "8483513", "name": "Reid Schaefer", "score": 42.98837209302326, "components": { "Goal model": 35.116279069767444, "SOG model": 15.813953488372093, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 26.74418604651163, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 50.0, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral", "Team H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Likely", "h2hGames": 0, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 305 } }, { "id": "8479576", "name": "Vincent Desharnais", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "position": "D", "currentGP": 9, "currentSOG": 0.3333333333333333, "priorSOG": 0.6415094339622641, "currentTOI": 19.414814814814815, "currentFiveTOI": 14.957407407407409, "ppShare": 0.003575685339690107, "rate": 0.6003781467963403, "fifty": 0.5048791908137318, "inputs": { "Player": "Vincent Desharnais", "Player_ID": "8479576", "Team": "WSH", "Opponent": "BUF", "Position": "D", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 0.5361359297846455, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 0.41237565362325157, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 9, "Prior_GP": 53, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 1.3371301225702612, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 2.5883480761688964, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 14.800185185185185, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 14.957407407407409, "Current_PP_Share": 0.003575685339690107, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.006758331497991505, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 9.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2517.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 5, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.500555555555556, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.02038967327519414, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.016092570520460866, "Other_State_SOG": 0.016981132075471698, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9496227273390297, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 0.6415094339622641, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:45.168228+00:00", "priorGP": 53, "currentTotalSOG": 3.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.016666666666666666, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.33 SOG/game in 9 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 9 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.134, "currentIXG": 0.014888888888888889, "priorTOI": 18.177358490566036, "priorPPTOI": 0.033962264150943396, "deploymentChange": 1.2374563242487788, "ppTOIChange": -0.01729559748427673, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021092", "date": "20260319", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 19.85 }, { "gameId": "2025021013", "date": "20260310", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 17.433333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020755", "date": "20250121", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 17.65 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 0.6666666666666666, "opponentDefense": { "team": "BUF", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 257.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 25.7, "mostAllowedRank": 24, "fiveSogAllowed60": 21.645723550871505, "pkSogAllowed60": 62.21198156682028, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 40.1, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 61.0, "L": 55.0, "D": 65.0, "C": 76.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.6, "L": 5.5, "R": 6.1, "D": 6.5 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 30.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.25, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 25.7, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.5, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8480045", "team": "BUF", "name": "Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 8, "savePct": 0.8629441624365483, "gaa": 3.5349310833909153, "gsax": -3.6580000000000013, "goalsAllowed": 27.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 23.342, "shotsAgainst": 197.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.035448902624297, "factor": 1.035448902624297, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T15:43:35.500Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.04105233127462546, "goalHistoryGoals": 1.0, "goalHistoryShots": 65.0, "goalExpected": 0.012895813138388796, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.01335295556259267, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.012813018424001543, "goalProbability": 0.013264200338847242, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.045118191484569935, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 9, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 0.3141310794780546, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 1.3371301225702612, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 14.957407407407409, "Current_PP_Share": 0.003575685339690107, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.500555555555556, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.016092570520460866, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.922717716387106, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.1429256259066152, "Position_Factor": 0.9922053498483736, "Input_GP": 9, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 9.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2517.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 2.5883480761688964, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 14.433333333333334, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.006758331497991505, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9423932384341638, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.34640522875817, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9423932384341638, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.1429256259066152, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 0.9995835068721366, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021092", "date": "20260319", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 19.85 }, { "gameId": "2025021013", "date": "20260310", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 17.433333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020755", "date": "20250121", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 17.65 }, { "gameId": "2024020364", "date": "20241129", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 15.85 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "NHL.com October 20 game-specific projected lineup", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 54, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480045", "goalieName": "Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8479576", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480045", "goalieName": "Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen", "opponent": "WSH", "games": 5, "availableGames": 10, "shotsAgainst": 138.0, "goalsAgainst": 13.0, "savePct": 0.9057971014492754, "gaa": 2.5547246028713357, "gsax": 1.2270000000000003, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021028", "date": "20260312", "goalieTeam": "BUF", "opponent": "WSH", "shotsAgainst": 22.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3513.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.736 }, { "gameId": "2025020186", "date": "20251101", "goalieTeam": "BUF", "opponent": "WSH", "shotsAgainst": 34.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3868.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.692 }, { "gameId": "2024020637", "date": "20250106", "goalieTeam": "BUF", "opponent": "WSH", "shotsAgainst": 28.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3900.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.29 }, { "gameId": "2024020480", "date": "20241214", "goalieTeam": "BUF", "opponent": "WSH", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3438.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.234 }, { "gameId": "2023021255", "date": "20240411", "goalieTeam": "BUF", "opponent": "WSH", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.275 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.3141310794780546, "adjustedSOG": 0.3141310794780546, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.3141310794780546, "adjustedSOG": 0.3141310794780546, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.04105233127462546, "goalHistoryGoals": 1.0, "goalHistoryShots": 65.0, "goalExpected": 0.012895813138388796, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.01335295556259267, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.012813018424001543, "goalProbability": 0.013264200338847242, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.045118191484569935 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05773634660313201, "modelSOG": 0.3141310794780546, "historyGames": 113, "seasonGames": { "2024": 51, "2025": 53, "2026": 9 }, "historyGoals": 1.0, "historyShots": 65.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.015384615384615385, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.04105233127462546, "goalieFactor": 1.035448902624297, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 28.770073874470548, "btb": { "id": "8479576", "name": "Vincent Desharnais", "score": 28.770073874470548, "components": { "Goal model": 2.0930232558139537, "SOG model": 3.255813953488372, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 1.1627906976744187, "Goalie": 7.794117647058823, "Team H2H": 48.61991794106677, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 431 } }, { "id": "8481716", "name": "Dmitri Voronkov", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "VGK", "position": "R", "currentGP": 6, "currentSOG": 1.3333333333333333, "priorSOG": 1.746031746031746, "currentTOI": 11.733333333333334, "currentFiveTOI": 10.022222222222222, "ppShare": 0.2892023874118285, "rate": 1.417793077003334, "fifty": 1.346015885995712, "inputs": { "Player": "Dmitri Voronkov", "Player_ID": "8481716", "Team": "CBJ", "Opponent": "VGK", "Position": "L", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.471392612492604, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.4656451951531448, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 6, "Prior_GP": 63, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.986696230598669, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.330356938957272, "Current_PP_SOG60": 13.50844277673546, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 11.141011840688913, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 10.490873015873015, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 10.022222222222222, "Current_PP_Share": 0.2892023874118285, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.45391566915662473, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 533.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1843.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 4, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.052367424242425, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 1.3721979549456342, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 1.1719543337608314, "Other_State_SOG": 0.11428571428571428, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9217353117054976, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.746031746031746, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:45.187403+00:00", "priorGP": 63, "currentTotalSOG": 8.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.4805555555555554, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.33 SOG/game in 6 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 6 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.996, "currentIXG": 0.166, "priorTOI": 13.93994708994709, "priorPPTOI": 1.966137566137566, "deploymentChange": -2.2066137566137556, "ppTOIChange": -0.48558201058201056, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020692", "date": "20260108", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 16.483333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020502", "date": "20251213", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 17.433333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024021045", "date": "20250313", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 14.983333333333333 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 1.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "VGK", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 275.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 25.0, "mostAllowedRank": 27, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.585792714368043, "pkSogAllowed60": 47.03517587939699, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 38.72727272727273, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 59.0, "C": 80.0, "R": 61.0, "L": 75.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.2727272727272725, "L": 6.818181818181818, "R": 5.545454545454546, "D": 5.363636363636363 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 26.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 25.75, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 25.0, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.545454545454546, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8479394", "team": "VGK", "name": "Carter Hart", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.8876404494382022, "gaa": 2.8716148845371516, "gsax": -1.5090000000000003, "goalsAllowed": 20.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 18.491, "shotsAgainst": 178.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.017200797231895, "factor": 1.017200797231895, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T22:33:02.238Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.1420570330760734, "goalHistoryGoals": 40.0, "goalHistoryShots": 272.0, "goalExpected": 0.1816326671184996, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.1847568937962932, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.1660923941546296, "goalProbability": 0.16869364497916045, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.26012508245308597, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 6, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.2785897550122205, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.986696230598669, "Current_PP_SOG60": 13.50844277673546, "Current_5v5_Min": 10.022222222222222, "Current_PP_Share": 0.2892023874118285, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.052367424242425, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.1719543337608314, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9589471960166247, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9956874166464801, "Position_Factor": 1.016031746031746, "Input_GP": 6, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 533.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1843.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.330356938957272, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 11.141011840688913, "Prior_5v5_Min": 11.584391534391536, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.45391566915662473, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0158730158730158, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.382352941176471, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0158730158730158, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9956874166464801, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 4.640670319046085, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 16.513761467889907, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020692", "date": "20260108", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 16.483333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020502", "date": "20251213", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 17.433333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024021045", "date": "20250313", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 14.983333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020820", "date": "20250130", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 16.633333333333333 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "NHL.com October 20 game-specific projected lineup", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 119, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 35, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479394", "goalieName": "Carter Hart", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8481716", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479394", "goalieName": "Carter Hart", "opponent": "CBJ", "games": 5, "availableGames": 11, "shotsAgainst": 128.0, "goalsAgainst": 11.0, "savePct": 0.9140625, "gaa": 2.6073215696602583, "gsax": 0.11300000000000043, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020692", "date": "20260108", "goalieTeam": "VGK", "opponent": "CBJ", "shotsAgainst": 1.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 504.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 0.415 }, { "gameId": "2025020502", "date": "20251213", "goalieTeam": "VGK", "opponent": "CBJ", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.064 }, { "gameId": "2023020011", "date": "20231012", "goalieTeam": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "shotsAgainst": 33.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.608 }, { "gameId": "2022021287", "date": "20230411", "goalieTeam": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "shotsAgainst": 31.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3884.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.732 }, { "gameId": "2022020510", "date": "20221220", "goalieTeam": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "shotsAgainst": 33.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.294 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.2785897550122205, "adjustedSOG": 1.2785897550122205, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.2785897550122205, "adjustedSOG": 1.2785897550122205, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.1420570330760734, "goalHistoryGoals": 40.0, "goalHistoryShots": 272.0, "goalExpected": 0.1816326671184996, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.1816326671184996, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.1660923941546296, "goalProbability": 0.1660923941546296, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12845216304299298, "modelSOG": 1.2785897550122205, "historyGames": 142, "seasonGames": { "2024": 73, "2025": 63, "2026": 6 }, "historyGoals": 40.0, "historyShots": 272.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.14705882352941177, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.1420570330760734, "goalieFactor": 1.017200797231895, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 48.02922182292068, "btb": { "id": "8481716", "name": "Dmitri Voronkov", "score": 48.02922182292068, "components": { "Goal model": 61.627906976744185, "SOG model": 46.04651162790697, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 56.74418604651163, "Goalie": 18.38235294117647, "Team H2H": 39.25773964938456, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 230 } }, { "id": "8480028", "name": "Morgan Frost", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "DET", "position": "C", "currentGP": 8, "currentSOG": 2.125, "priorSOG": 1.7073170731707317, "currentTOI": 15.7625, "currentFiveTOI": 12.570833333333333, "ppShare": 0.6912983425414365, "rate": 1.786443020986209, "fifty": 1.980875406396183, "inputs": { "Player": "Morgan Frost", "Player_ID": "8480028", "Team": "CGY", "Opponent": "DET", "Position": "C", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.7997574520485733, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.980948321360643, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 8, "Prior_GP": 82, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 7.1594298972489225, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.9574045574144865, "Current_PP_SOG60": 14.385614385614385, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 8.48228794280143, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 12.484278455284551, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 12.570833333333333, "Current_PP_Share": 0.6912983425414365, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.6642560310864051, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1001.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1448.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 5, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.265740740740741, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 2.9142928568762954, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 2.9488995037855537, "Other_State_SOG": 0.11128048780487805, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9911254066849144, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.7073170731707317, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:45.207266+00:00", "priorGP": 82, "currentTotalSOG": 17.0, "currentPPTOI": 2.0854166666666667, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.12 SOG/game in 8 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 8 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.99, "currentIXG": 0.24875, "priorTOI": 15.502032520325205, "priorPPTOI": 2.5016260162601625, "deploymentChange": 0.26046747967479433, "ppTOIChange": -0.41620934959349576, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021063", "date": "20260316", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "DET", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 17.833333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2025020477", "date": "20251210", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "DET", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 17.95 }, { "gameId": "2024020834", "date": "20250201", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "DET", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 17.616666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020751", "date": "20250121", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "DET", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 19.216666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2024020507", "date": "20241218", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "DET", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 14.25 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 6, "h2hSOG": 1.6, "opponentDefense": { "team": "DET", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 243.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.0, "mostAllowedRank": 17, "fiveSogAllowed60": 24.49072666463971, "pkSogAllowed60": 47.14573539288113, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 41.22222222222222, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 39.0, "C": 96.0, "D": 73.0, "L": 35.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.666666666666666, "L": 3.888888888888889, "R": 4.333333333333333, "D": 8.11111111111111 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 29.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 2, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 28.5, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.0, "oppPosSogAllowed": 10.666666666666666, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8476434", "team": "DET", "name": "John Gibson", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 6, "savePct": 0.8734177215189873, "gaa": 3.5755077717634207, "gsax": -1.6310000000000002, "goalsAllowed": 20.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 18.369, "shotsAgainst": 158.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0182492009293351, "factor": 1.0182492009293351, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T17:52:44.365Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.12930034023955347, "goalHistoryGoals": 39.0, "goalHistoryShots": 301.0, "goalExpected": 0.3131061536101181, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.3188200907195604, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.2688277081293042, "goalProbability": 0.27299366727239405, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.416595914308987, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 8, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 2.4215416063873416, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 7.1594298972489225, "Current_PP_SOG60": 14.385614385614385, "Current_5v5_Min": 12.570833333333333, "Current_PP_Share": 0.6912983425414365, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.265740740740741, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 2.9488995037855537, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.125, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9801217943191682, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9957661672519493, "Position_Factor": 1.0165840501530836, "Input_GP": 8, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1001.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1448.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.9574045574144865, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 8.48228794280143, "Prior_5v5_Min": 12.28231707317073, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.6642560310864051, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0616707974923458, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.437908496732026, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0616707974923458, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9957661672519493, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 7.1594298972489225, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 14.385614385614385, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 4, "sogPerGame": 1.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021063", "date": "20260316", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "DET", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 17.833333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2025020477", "date": "20251210", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "DET", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 17.95 }, { "gameId": "2024020834", "date": "20250201", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "DET", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 17.616666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020751", "date": "20250121", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "DET", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 19.216666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2024020507", "date": "20241218", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "DET", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 14.25 }, { "gameId": "2024020462", "date": "20241212", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "DET", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 15.35 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Reviewed October22 projected lineup and coach reports", "ppAssignmentSourceDate": "2026-10-12T17:12:03.968Z", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 146, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 43, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476434", "goalieName": "John Gibson", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8480028", "goals": 3, "sog": 12, "shootingPct": 0.25, "gamesWithAttempts": 6, "recordedAttempts": 15, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021063", "date": "20260316", "season": 2025, "goals": 1, "sog": 3, "attempts": 4 }, { "gameId": "2025020477", "date": "20251210", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2024021203", "date": "20250403", "season": 2024, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2 }, { "gameId": "2024020675", "date": "20250111", "season": 2024, "goals": 1, "sog": 2, "attempts": 3 }, { "gameId": "2022020597", "date": "20230102", "season": 2022, "goals": 1, "sog": 4, "attempts": 4 }, { "gameId": "2021020594", "date": "20220104", "season": 2021, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476434", "goalieName": "John Gibson", "opponent": "CGY", "games": 5, "availableGames": 25, "shotsAgainst": 152.0, "goalsAgainst": 14.0, "savePct": 0.9078947368421053, "gaa": 2.9964328180737216, "gsax": 0.16800000000000015, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021063", "date": "20260316", "goalieTeam": "DET", "opponent": "CGY", "shotsAgainst": 27.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3589.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.703 }, { "gameId": "2025020477", "date": "20251210", "goalieTeam": "DET", "opponent": "CGY", "shotsAgainst": 37.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.965 }, { "gameId": "2024021203", "date": "20250403", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "CGY", "shotsAgainst": 26.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 2381.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.555 }, { "gameId": "2024020818", "date": "20250130", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "CGY", "shotsAgainst": 29.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3525.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.091 }, { "gameId": "2024020648", "date": "20250107", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "CGY", "shotsAgainst": 33.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3725.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.854 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 2.4215416063873416, "adjustedSOG": 2.4215416063873416, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 2.4215416063873416, "adjustedSOG": 2.4215416063873416, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.12930034023955347, "goalHistoryGoals": 39.0, "goalHistoryShots": 301.0, "goalExpected": 0.3131061536101181, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.3131061536101181, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.2688277081293042, "goalProbability": 0.2688277081293042, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12849436436060946, "modelSOG": 2.4215416063873416, "historyGames": 171, "seasonGames": { "2024": 81, "2025": 82, "2026": 8 }, "historyGoals": 39.0, "historyShots": 301.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.12956810631229235, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.12930034023955347, "goalieFactor": 1.0182492009293351, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 56.502270929605615, "btb": { "id": "8480028", "name": "Morgan Frost", "score": 56.502270929605615, "components": { "Goal model": 86.51162790697674, "SOG model": 84.4186046511628, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 74.18604651162791, "Goalie": 2.5, "Team H2H": 43.097258485639685, "Goalie H2H": 58.458216916433834 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 6, "goalieH2HShots": 12, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 130 } }, { "id": "8483525", "name": "Danila Yurov", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "SEA", "position": "C", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 1.5, "priorSOG": 1.095890410958904, "currentTOI": 13.648333333333332, "currentFiveTOI": 11.551666666666666, "ppShare": 0.24505766062602966, "rate": 1.2522013978361917, "fifty": 1.3382023091986688, "inputs": { "Player": "Danila Yurov", "Player_ID": "8483525", "Team": "MIN", "Opponent": "SEA", "Position": "R", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.152006149286255, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.0520053023954474, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 10, "Prior_GP": 73, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.7134612610012985, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.082478823004904, "Current_PP_SOG60": 12.100840336134453, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 5.587892898719441, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 11.773289954337898, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 11.551666666666666, "Current_PP_Share": 0.24505766062602966, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.11151093373269858, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 595.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2428.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 5, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 3.9491666666666667, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.8095540600687547, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.9677735447556288, "Other_State_SOG": 0.020000000000000004, "Environment_Proxy": 1.1489692159321772, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.095890410958904, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/minnesota-wild/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:45.227620+00:00", "priorGP": 73, "currentTotalSOG": 15.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.9916666666666666, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.50 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.661, "currentIXG": 0.1661, "priorTOI": 13.297488584474886, "priorPPTOI": 0.5883561643835616, "deploymentChange": 0.35084474885844585, "ppTOIChange": 0.40331050228310494, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021240", "date": "20260407", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 11.883333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020693", "date": "20260108", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 15.7 }, { "gameId": "2025020465", "date": "20251208", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 13.6 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 3, "h2hSOG": 1.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "SEA", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 311.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 31.1, "mostAllowedRank": 3, "fiveSogAllowed60": 29.01212141229316, "pkSogAllowed60": 57.63738641280831, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 48.5, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 101.0, "R": 65.0, "L": 58.0, "D": 87.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.1, "L": 5.8, "R": 6.5, "D": 8.7 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 31.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 3, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 28.666666666666668, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 31.1, "oppPosSogAllowed": 10.1, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8478916", "team": "SEA", "name": "Joey Daccord", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 5, "savePct": 0.881578947368421, "gaa": 3.8855909336211547, "gsax": -2.3970000000000002, "goalsAllowed": 18.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 15.603, "shotsAgainst": 152.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.024854248577667, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Likely starter per Daily Faceoff; no Model Goal adjustment until confirmed.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T20:31:39.541Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.14792996469707234, "goalHistoryGoals": 16.0, "goalHistoryShots": 95.0, "goalExpected": 0.22495713655701463, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.22495713655701463, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.20144955335264994, "goalProbability": 0.20144955335264994, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.520700265275374, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.7134612610012985, "Current_PP_SOG60": 12.100840336134453, "Current_5v5_Min": 11.551666666666666, "Current_PP_Share": 0.24505766062602966, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 3.9491666666666667, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.9677735447556288, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.2, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0689197555315912, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0920680305430235, "Position_Factor": 0.9921459571037935, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 595.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2428.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.082478823004904, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 5.587892898719441, "Prior_5v5_Min": 12.29041095890411, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.11151093373269858, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0350761772853185, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.437908496732026, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0350761772853185, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0920680305430235, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.7134612610012985, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 12.100840336134453, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 1.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021240", "date": "20260407", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 11.883333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020693", "date": "20260108", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 15.7 }, { "gameId": "2025020465", "date": "20251208", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 13.6 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 121, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 8, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478916", "goalieName": "Joey Daccord", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8483525", "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 1, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021240", "date": "20260407", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478916", "goalieName": "Joey Daccord", "opponent": "MIN", "games": 5, "availableGames": 6, "shotsAgainst": 123.0, "goalsAgainst": 19.0, "savePct": 0.8455284552845528, "gaa": 4.3387250237868695, "gsax": -6.912000000000001, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021240", "date": "20260407", "goalieTeam": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 28.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3488.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.569 }, { "gameId": "2024020982", "date": "20250304", "goalieTeam": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 20.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3463.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.635 }, { "gameId": "2024020033", "date": "20241012", "goalieTeam": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 38.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3885.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.839 }, { "gameId": "2023021307", "date": "20240418", "goalieTeam": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.121 }, { "gameId": "2023020913", "date": "20240224", "goalieTeam": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 13.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 1329.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.924 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.520700265275374, "adjustedSOG": 1.520700265275374, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.5517349645667082, "adjustedSOG": 1.520700265275374, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.14792996469707234, "goalHistoryGoals": 16.0, "goalHistoryShots": 95.0, "goalExpected": 0.22954809852756594, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.22954809852756594, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.20510726545175811, "goalProbability": 0.20510726545175811, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1284634311592911, "modelSOG": 1.520700265275374, "historyGames": 83, "seasonGames": { "2025": 73, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 16.0, "historyShots": 95.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.16842105263157894, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.14792996469707234, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 54.17318785410352, "btb": { "id": "8483525", "name": "Danila Yurov", "score": 54.17318785410352, "components": { "Goal model": 72.79069767441861, "SOG model": 58.13953488372093, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 52.7906976744186, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 42.860012050612575, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Likely", "h2hGames": 3, "goalieH2HShots": 1, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 157 } }, { "id": "8484873", "name": "Cole Hutson", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "position": "D", "currentGP": 9, "currentSOG": 2.4444444444444446, "priorSOG": 1.5714285714285714, "currentTOI": 18.837037037037035, "currentFiveTOI": 15.620370370370372, "ppShare": 0.37822804926499803, "rate": 1.5993620711668404, "fifty": 1.8246863974027367, "inputs": { "Player": "Cole Hutson", "Player_ID": "8484873", "Team": "WSH", "Opponent": "BUF", "Position": "D", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.4815192978248033, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.7396270232712816, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 9, "Prior_GP": 14, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 7.255483106105513, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.709730171708912, "Current_PP_SOG60": 3.7815126050420167, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 3.9344262295081966, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 15.302116402116404, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 15.620370370370372, "Current_PP_Share": 0.37822804926499803, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.4978574149103749, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 952.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2517.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 5, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.500555555555556, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 1.8637559302353934, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 1.7022363483865273, "Other_State_SOG": 0.30158730158730157, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9496227273390297, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.5714285714285714, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:45.248828+00:00", "priorGP": 14, "currentTotalSOG": 22.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.762962962962963, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.44 SOG/game in 9 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 9 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 2.143, "currentIXG": 0.23811111111111108, "priorTOI": 17.45714285714286, "priorPPTOI": 2.1785714285714284, "deploymentChange": 1.3798941798941762, "ppTOIChange": -0.4156084656084653, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021213", "date": "20260404", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 18.966666666666665 } ], "h2hGames": 1, "h2hAvailableGames": 1, "h2hSOG": 2.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "BUF", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 257.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 25.7, "mostAllowedRank": 24, "fiveSogAllowed60": 21.645723550871505, "pkSogAllowed60": 62.21198156682028, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 40.1, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 61.0, "L": 55.0, "D": 65.0, "C": 76.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.6, "L": 5.5, "R": 6.1, "D": 6.5 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 30.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.25, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 25.7, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.5, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8480045", "team": "BUF", "name": "Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 8, "savePct": 0.8629441624365483, "gaa": 3.5349310833909153, "gsax": -3.6580000000000013, "goalsAllowed": 27.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 23.342, "shotsAgainst": 197.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.035448902624297, "factor": 1.035448902624297, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T15:43:35.500Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.07473321721795781, "goalHistoryGoals": 5.0, "goalHistoryShots": 44.0, "goalExpected": 0.17540917173138063, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.18162723437949493, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.1608863910514046, "goalProbability": 0.16608786373994675, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.5201472688542153, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 9, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 2.347137969717048, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 7.255483106105513, "Current_PP_SOG60": 3.7815126050420167, "Current_5v5_Min": 15.620370370370372, "Current_PP_Share": 0.37822804926499803, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.500555555555556, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.7022363483865273, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.4444444444444444, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.922717716387106, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.1429256259066152, "Position_Factor": 0.9922053498483736, "Input_GP": 9, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 952.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2517.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.709730171708912, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 3.9344262295081966, "Prior_5v5_Min": 14.55952380952381, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.4978574149103749, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9423932384341638, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.34640522875817, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9423932384341638, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.1429256259066152, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 7.8581173260572985, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 2.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021213", "date": "20260404", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 18.966666666666665 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "NHL.com October 20 game-specific projected lineup", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 29, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 6, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480045", "goalieName": "Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8484873", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480045", "goalieName": "Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen", "opponent": "WSH", "games": 5, "availableGames": 10, "shotsAgainst": 138.0, "goalsAgainst": 13.0, "savePct": 0.9057971014492754, "gaa": 2.5547246028713357, "gsax": 1.2270000000000003, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021028", "date": "20260312", "goalieTeam": "BUF", "opponent": "WSH", "shotsAgainst": 22.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3513.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.736 }, { "gameId": "2025020186", "date": "20251101", "goalieTeam": "BUF", "opponent": "WSH", "shotsAgainst": 34.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3868.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.692 }, { "gameId": "2024020637", "date": "20250106", "goalieTeam": "BUF", "opponent": "WSH", "shotsAgainst": 28.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3900.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.29 }, { "gameId": "2024020480", "date": "20241214", "goalieTeam": "BUF", "opponent": "WSH", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3438.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.234 }, { "gameId": "2023021255", "date": "20240411", "goalieTeam": "BUF", "opponent": "WSH", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.275 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 2.347137969717048, "adjustedSOG": 2.347137969717048, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 2.347137969717048, "adjustedSOG": 2.347137969717048, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.07473321721795781, "goalHistoryGoals": 5.0, "goalHistoryShots": 44.0, "goalExpected": 0.17540917173138063, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.18162723437949493, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.1608863910514046, "goalProbability": 0.16608786373994675, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.5201472688542153 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05761583279385924, "modelSOG": 2.347137969717048, "historyGames": 23, "seasonGames": { "2025": 14, "2026": 9 }, "historyGoals": 5.0, "historyShots": 44.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.11363636363636363, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.07473321721795781, "goalieFactor": 1.035448902624297, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": 51.64521749337517, "btb": { "id": "8484873", "name": "Cole Hutson", "score": 51.64521749337517, "components": { "Goal model": 60.0, "SOG model": 83.02325581395348, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 72.09302325581395, "Goalie": 7.794117647058823, "Team H2H": 50.03560408260147, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 1, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 190 } }, { "id": "8475718", "name": "Justin Holl", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "position": "D", "currentGP": 3, "currentSOG": 0.6666666666666666, "priorSOG": 0.7777777777777778, "currentTOI": 12.983333333333334, "currentFiveTOI": 12.144444444444444, "ppShare": 0.0, "rate": 0.6641535120828834, "fifty": 0.6399972300846732, "inputs": { "Player": "Justin Holl", "Player_ID": "8475718", "Team": "WSH", "Opponent": "BUF", "Position": "D", "Current_GP": 3, "Prior_GP": 9, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.293687099725526, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.1126482213438735, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 12.998888888888889, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 12.144444444444444, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0, "Prior_PP_Share": 0, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 879.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 3, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Measured game-matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Historical skater-team PP minute approximation, existing hybrid method", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.500555555555556, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.0, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.0, "Other_State_SOG": 0.0, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9496227273390297, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 0.7777777777777778, "Status": "Historical input object restored from saved prior summaries", "Availability_Note": "Conditional on dressing", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 0.6737078791114293, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 0.6491300381548838 }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:45.270853+00:00", "priorGP": 9, "currentTotalSOG": 2.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.0, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.67 SOG/game in 3 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 3 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.101, "currentIXG": 0.03366666666666667, "priorTOI": 15.672222222222224, "priorPPTOI": 0, "deploymentChange": -2.68888888888889, "ppTOIChange": 0.0, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2024021036", "date": "20250312", "team": "DET", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 14.65 }, { "gameId": "2024020443", "date": "20241209", "team": "DET", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 14.8 }, { "gameId": "2024020122", "date": "20241026", "team": "DET", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 13.383333333333333 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 3, "h2hSOG": 1.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "BUF", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 257.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 25.7, "mostAllowedRank": 24, "fiveSogAllowed60": 21.645723550871505, "pkSogAllowed60": 62.21198156682028, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 40.1, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 61.0, "L": 55.0, "D": 65.0, "C": 76.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.6, "L": 5.5, "R": 6.1, "D": 6.5 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 30.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.25, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 25.7, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.5, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8480045", "team": "BUF", "name": "Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 8, "savePct": 0.8629441624365483, "gaa": 3.5349310833909153, "gsax": -3.6580000000000013, "goalsAllowed": 27.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 23.342, "shotsAgainst": 197.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.035448902624297, "factor": 1.035448902624297, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T15:43:35.500Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.07174921765404121, "goalHistoryGoals": 5.0, "goalHistoryShots": 50.0, "goalExpected": 0.04507731838673971, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.04667525985679568, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.04407643149245628, "goalProbability": 0.045602721618862974, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.15262901264066903, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": null, "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 3, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 0.628262158956109, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.293687099725526, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 12.144444444444444, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.500555555555556, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.0, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.922717716387106, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.1429256259066152, "Position_Factor": 0.9922053498483736, "Input_GP": 3, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 879.0, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9423932384341638, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.34640522875817, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9423932384341638, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.1429256259066152, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 3.293687099725526, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 1.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2024021036", "date": "20250312", "team": "DET", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 14.65 }, { "gameId": "2024020443", "date": "20241209", "team": "DET", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 14.8 }, { "gameId": "2024020122", "date": "20241026", "team": "DET", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 13.383333333333333 } ], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "NHL.com October 20 game-specific projected lineup", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 10, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480045", "goalieName": "Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8475718", "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 2, "recordedAttempts": 2, "log": [ { "gameId": "2024021036", "date": "20250312", "season": 2024, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2022020276", "date": "20221119", "season": 2022, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480045", "goalieName": "Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen", "opponent": "WSH", "games": 5, "availableGames": 10, "shotsAgainst": 138.0, "goalsAgainst": 13.0, "savePct": 0.9057971014492754, "gaa": 2.5547246028713357, "gsax": 1.2270000000000003, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021028", "date": "20260312", "goalieTeam": "BUF", "opponent": "WSH", "shotsAgainst": 22.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3513.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.736 }, { "gameId": "2025020186", "date": "20251101", "goalieTeam": "BUF", "opponent": "WSH", "shotsAgainst": 34.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3868.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.692 }, { "gameId": "2024020637", "date": "20250106", "goalieTeam": "BUF", "opponent": "WSH", "shotsAgainst": 28.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3900.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.29 }, { "gameId": "2024020480", "date": "20241214", "goalieTeam": "BUF", "opponent": "WSH", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3438.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.234 }, { "gameId": "2023021255", "date": "20240411", "goalieTeam": "BUF", "opponent": "WSH", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.275 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.628262158956109, "adjustedSOG": 0.628262158956109, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.628262158956109, "adjustedSOG": 0.628262158956109, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.07174921765404121, "goalHistoryGoals": 5.0, "goalHistoryShots": 50.0, "goalExpected": 0.04507731838673971, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.04667525985679568, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.04407643149245628, "goalProbability": 0.045602721618862974, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.15262901264066903 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05762382648106183, "modelSOG": 0.628262158956109, "historyGames": 85, "seasonGames": { "2024": 73, "2025": 9, "2026": 3 }, "historyGoals": 5.0, "historyShots": 50.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.1, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.07174921765404121, "goalieFactor": 1.035448902624297, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8477998", "name": "Warren Foegele", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "NYR", "position": "L", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 1.2, "priorSOG": 1.5441176470588236, "currentTOI": 12.018333333333334, "currentFiveTOI": 11.27, "ppShare": 0.012415085500117124, "rate": 1.3875825721020847, "fifty": 1.2933798118872768, "inputs": { "Player": "Warren Foegele", "Player_ID": "8477998", "Team": "OTT", "Opponent": "NYR", "Position": "L", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.2593290135164106, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 0.8653942439670557, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 10, "Prior_GP": 68, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.8562555456965395, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.8054328395010995, "Current_PP_SOG60": 67.9245283018868, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 10.491257285595337, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 11.46745588235294, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 11.27, "Current_PP_Share": 0.012415085500117124, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.11915657058673497, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 53.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 4269.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 5, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 6.001439393939394, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.26668914926945547, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.07450838319952868, "Other_State_SOG": 0.07941176470588236, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9482920490252438, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.5441176470588236, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/ottawa-senators/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:45.293491+00:00", "priorGP": 68, "currentTotalSOG": 12.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.08833333333333333, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.20 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.307, "currentIXG": 0.13069999999999998, "priorTOI": 13.774754901960783, "priorPPTOI": 0.5887254901960784, "deploymentChange": -1.7564215686274487, "ppTOIChange": -0.5003921568627451, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021119", "date": "20260323", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "NYR", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 12.283333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020787", "date": "20260120", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "NYR", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 15.366666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024021138", "date": "20250325", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "NYR", "venue": "home", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 8.0, "toi": 15.6 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 3.3333333333333335, "opponentDefense": { "team": "NYR", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 283.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 25.727272727272727, "mostAllowedRank": 23, "fiveSogAllowed60": 24.897512126427788, "pkSogAllowed60": 40.17358958462492, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 39.81818181818182, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 106.0, "D": 82.0, "R": 57.0, "L": 38.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.636363636363637, "L": 3.4545454545454546, "R": 5.181818181818182, "D": 7.454545454545454 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 27.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.4, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 25.727272727272727, "oppPosSogAllowed": 3.4545454545454546, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8482193", "team": "NYR", "name": "Dylan Garand", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.9285714285714286, "gaa": 1.846928781306842, "gsax": 4.030999999999999, "goalsAllowed": 11.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 15.030999999999999, "shotsAgainst": 154.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9674872583533348, "factor": 0.9674872583533348, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T15:37:42.216Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.12224050803820077, "goalHistoryGoals": 38.0, "goalHistoryShots": 316.0, "goalExpected": 0.12377868057870899, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.11975429631568833, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.11642462836550652, "goalProbability": 0.11286161688983035, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.356301147567617, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.0125831654759445, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.8562555456965395, "Current_PP_SOG60": 67.9245283018868, "Current_5v5_Min": 11.27, "Current_PP_Share": 0.012415085500117124, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 6.001439393939394, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.07450838319952868, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9864268368728425, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9197863814450764, "Position_Factor": 0.9636523028595196, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 53.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 4269.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.8054328395010995, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 10.491257285595337, "Prior_5v5_Min": 11.928186274509804, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.11915657058673497, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.85, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.062091503267974, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9197863814450764, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.8562555456965395, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 67.9245283018868, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 5.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021119", "date": "20260323", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "NYR", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 12.283333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020787", "date": "20260120", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "NYR", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 15.366666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024021138", "date": "20250325", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "NYR", "venue": "home", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 8.0, "toi": 15.6 }, { "gameId": "2024020475", "date": "20241214", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "NYR", "venue": "away", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 9.0, "toi": 17.45 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "lineupReviewedAt": "2026-10-22T12:25:32.333917+00:00", "lineupReviewNote": "Reported forward, defense and PP chart reviewed October22; matches existing assignments. Final dressing unconfirmed. Dated statistical inputs now include October21.", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 158, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 10, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482193", "goalieName": "Dylan Garand", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8477998", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482193", "goalieName": "Dylan Garand", "opponent": "OTT", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "No appearance found in the supplied historical files; this does not establish that the goalie has never faced the team." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.0125831654759445, "adjustedSOG": 1.0125831654759445, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.0125831654759445, "adjustedSOG": 1.0125831654759445, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.12224050803820077, "goalHistoryGoals": 38.0, "goalHistoryShots": 316.0, "goalExpected": 0.12377868057870899, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.11975429631568833, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.11642462836550652, "goalProbability": 0.11286161688983035, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.356301147567617 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12852051343891524, "modelSOG": 1.0125831654759445, "historyGames": 160, "seasonGames": { "2024": 82, "2025": 68, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 38.0, "historyShots": 316.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.12025316455696203, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.12224050803820077, "goalieFactor": 0.9674872583533348, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 47.83918257934056, "btb": { "id": "8477998", "name": "Warren Foegele", "score": 47.83918257934056, "components": { "Goal model": 44.883720930232556, "SOG model": 30.232558139534884, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 39.53488372093023, "Goalie": 39.55882352941177, "Team H2H": 62.94293174188735, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 235 } }, { "id": "8480835", "name": "Jack Drury", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "PIT", "position": "C", "currentGP": 8, "currentSOG": 1.125, "priorSOG": 1.2073170731707317, "currentTOI": 16.291666666666668, "currentFiveTOI": 13.083333333333334, "ppShare": 0.0041650889814464215, "rate": 1.2606000431603428, "fifty": 1.146568905479767, "inputs": { "Player": "Jack Drury", "Player_ID": "8480835", "Team": "NSH", "Opponent": "PIT", "Position": "C", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.0678515825376564, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 0.928197070312506, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 8, "Prior_GP": 82, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.4394904458598727, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.183102408618178, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 7.492195629552549, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 12.75821138211382, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 13.083333333333334, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0041650889814464215, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.03565687361419068, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 11.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2641.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 5, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.906041666666667, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.06678410235813129, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.020434100088350372, "Other_State_SOG": 0.16920731707317074, "Environment_Proxy": 1.0227478110844896, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.2073170731707317, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/nashville-predators/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:45.316107+00:00", "priorGP": 82, "currentTotalSOG": 9.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.022916666666666665, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.12 SOG/game in 8 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 8 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.5350000000000001, "currentIXG": 0.19187500000000002, "priorTOI": 14.478658536585366, "priorPPTOI": 0.1953252032520325, "deploymentChange": 1.8130081300813021, "ppTOIChange": -0.17240853658536584, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021126", "date": "20260324", "team": "COL", "opponent": "PIT", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 14.1 }, { "gameId": "2025021067", "date": "20260316", "team": "COL", "opponent": "PIT", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 13.516666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020980", "date": "20250304", "team": "COL", "opponent": "PIT", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 12.433333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020634", "date": "20250105", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "PIT", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 14.95 }, { "gameId": "2024020214", "date": "20241107", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "PIT", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 15.566666666666666 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 6, "h2hSOG": 1.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "PIT", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 279.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.9, "mostAllowedRank": 12, "fiveSogAllowed60": 26.122338261223383, "pkSogAllowed60": 50.11600928074246, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 42.4, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 55.0, "L": 47.0, "D": 70.0, "C": 107.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.7, "L": 4.7, "R": 5.5, "D": 7.0 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 25.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 3, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 28.333333333333332, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.9, "oppPosSogAllowed": 10.7, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8481668", "team": "PIT", "name": "Arturs Silovs", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 6, "savePct": 0.8662420382165605, "gaa": 3.5131744040150563, "gsax": -1.0760000000000005, "goalsAllowed": 21.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 19.924, "shotsAgainst": 157.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0136052553954562, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Likely starter per Daily Faceoff; no Model Goal adjustment until confirmed.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T15:01:09.604Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.1058332794278265, "goalHistoryGoals": 19.0, "goalHistoryShots": 201.0, "goalExpected": 0.12188228426698768, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.12188228426698768, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.11474742947536158, "goalProbability": 0.11474742947536158, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 8, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.1516442174515236, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.4394904458598727, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 13.083333333333334, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0041650889814464215, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.906041666666667, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.020434100088350372, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.375, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.011083778612368, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0249142728068137, "Position_Factor": 1.013339402198195, "Input_GP": 8, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 11.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2641.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.183102408618178, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 7.492195629552549, "Prior_5v5_Min": 11.99959349593496, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.03565687361419068, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0668628808864264, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.437908496732026, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0668628808864264, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0249142728068137, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 3.4394904458598727, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 4, "sogPerGame": 1.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021126", "date": "20260324", "team": "COL", "opponent": "PIT", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 14.1 }, { "gameId": "2025021067", "date": "20260316", "team": "COL", "opponent": "PIT", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 13.516666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020980", "date": "20250304", "team": "COL", "opponent": "PIT", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 12.433333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020634", "date": "20250105", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "PIT", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 14.95 }, { "gameId": "2024020214", "date": "20241107", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "PIT", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 15.566666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020072", "date": "20241018", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "PIT", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 14.416666666666666 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 135, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. 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Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481668", "goalieName": "Arturs Silovs", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8480835", "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 2, "recordedAttempts": 2, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021126", "date": "20260324", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2025021067", "date": "20260316", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481668", "goalieName": "Arturs Silovs", "opponent": "NSH", "games": 2, "availableGames": 2, "shotsAgainst": 62.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "savePct": 0.9193548387096774, "gaa": 2.397123451857771, "gsax": 1.6559999999999997, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020281", "date": "20251114", "goalieTeam": "PIT", "opponent": "NSH", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3644.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.231 }, { "gameId": "2022021010", "date": "20230306", "goalieTeam": "VAN", "opponent": "NSH", "shotsAgainst": 32.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3865.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.425 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.1516442174515236, "adjustedSOG": 1.1516442174515236, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.17514716066482, "adjustedSOG": 1.1516442174515236, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.1058332794278265, "goalHistoryGoals": 19.0, "goalHistoryShots": 201.0, "goalExpected": 0.12436967782345683, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.12436967782345683, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.1169466646994574, "goalProbability": 0.1169466646994574, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12855817107775774, "modelSOG": 1.1516442174515236, "historyGames": 162, "seasonGames": { "2024": 72, "2025": 82, "2026": 8 }, "historyGoals": 19.0, "historyShots": 201.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.0945273631840796, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.1058332794278265, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 50.413621804602585, "btb": { "id": "8480835", "name": "Jack Drury", "score": 50.413621804602585, "components": { "Goal model": 43.95348837209303, "SOG model": 38.372093023255815, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 61.395348837209305, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 57.09856396866841, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Likely", "h2hGames": 6, "goalieH2HShots": 2, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 198 } }, { "id": "8476879", "name": "Cody Ceci", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "NJD", "position": "D", "currentGP": 6, "currentSOG": 1.0, "priorSOG": 0.7195121951219512, "currentTOI": 16.580555555555556, "currentFiveTOI": 14.18888888888889, "ppShare": 0.002288329519450801, "rate": 0.6805967816912575, "fifty": 0.7241078364986284, "inputs": { "Player": "Cody Ceci", "Player_ID": "8476879", "Team": "LAK", "Opponent": "NJD", "Position": "D", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 0.6442477504948628, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 0.5821899175942292, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 6, "Prior_GP": 82, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.523884103367267, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 2.7939090641475097, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 14.489173441734417, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 14.18888888888889, "Current_PP_Share": 0.002288329519450801, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.0023844495736604163, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 4.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1748.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 4, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.575661375661376, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.010602564842778812, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.010470620996936787, "Other_State_SOG": 0.027642276422764227, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9357862710703578, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 0.7195121951219512, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/los-angeles-kings/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:45.343430+00:00", "priorGP": 82, "currentTotalSOG": 6.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.011111111111111112, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.00 SOG/game in 6 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 6 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.16399999999999998, "currentIXG": 0.02733333333333333, "priorTOI": 17.565650406504066, "priorPPTOI": 0.01016260162601626, "deploymentChange": -0.98509485094851, "ppTOIChange": 0.0009485094850948516, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021050", "date": "20260314", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 16.15 }, { "gameId": "2025020191", "date": "20251101", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 14.566666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020979", "date": "20250304", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 19.233333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020897", "date": "20250222", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 19.883333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020622", "date": "20250104", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 21.566666666666666 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 6, "h2hSOG": 0.8, "opponentDefense": { "team": "NJD", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 234.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 26.0, "mostAllowedRank": 22, "fiveSogAllowed60": 24.374647357532442, "pkSogAllowed60": 52.512155591572125, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 37.111111111111114, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "L": 41.0, "D": 63.0, "C": 78.0, "R": 52.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 8.666666666666666, "L": 4.555555555555555, "R": 5.777777777777778, "D": 7.0 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 25.0, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 25.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 26.0, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.0, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8474596", "team": "NJD", "name": "Jake Allen", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 6, "savePct": 0.8834355828220859, "gaa": 3.1496062992125986, "gsax": -3.708, "goalsAllowed": 19.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 15.292, "shotsAgainst": 163.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0365218981504722, "factor": 1.0365218981504722, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T17:31:56.013Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.04226042193609555, "goalHistoryGoals": 5.0, "goalHistoryShots": 155.0, "goalExpected": 0.04064435063142467, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.04212875946557765, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.03982944671829717, "goalProbability": 0.041253675039810624, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.14242283215134544, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 6, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 0.9617592245738902, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.523884103367267, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 14.18888888888889, "Current_PP_Share": 0.002288329519450801, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.575661375661376, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.010470620996936787, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.16666666666666666, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9778442581785296, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0469775686735434, "Position_Factor": 0.9997771298284035, "Input_GP": 6, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 4.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1748.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 2.7939090641475097, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 15.189837398373983, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.0023844495736604163, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9776643566210901, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.34640522875817, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9776643566210901, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0469775686735434, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 3.523884103367267, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 4, "sogPerGame": 1.25 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021050", "date": "20260314", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 16.15 }, { "gameId": "2025020191", "date": "20251101", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 14.566666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020979", "date": "20250304", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 19.233333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020897", "date": "20250222", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 19.883333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020622", "date": "20250104", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 21.566666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020236", "date": "20241110", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 22.9 } ], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 97, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. 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Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8474596", "goalieName": "Jake Allen", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8476879", "goals": 0, "sog": 6, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 4, "recordedAttempts": 7, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021050", "date": "20260314", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2 }, { "gameId": "2024020897", "date": "20250222", "season": 2024, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2024020236", "date": "20241110", "season": 2024, "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 3 }, { "gameId": "2022020846", "date": "20230212", "season": 2022, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8474596", "goalieName": "Jake Allen", "opponent": "LAK", "games": 5, "availableGames": 17, "shotsAgainst": 151.0, "goalsAgainst": 16.0, "savePct": 0.8940397350993378, "gaa": 3.2597623089983023, "gsax": 1.5839999999999996, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021050", "date": "20260314", "goalieTeam": "NJD", "opponent": "LAK", "shotsAgainst": 31.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.558 }, { "gameId": "2024020602", "date": "20250101", "goalieTeam": "NJD", "opponent": "LAK", "shotsAgainst": 23.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3431.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.828 }, { "gameId": "2023020309", "date": "20231125", "goalieTeam": "MTL", "opponent": "LAK", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.339 }, { "gameId": "2022020982", "date": "20230302", "goalieTeam": "MTL", "opponent": "LAK", "shotsAgainst": 33.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3509.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.849 }, { "gameId": "2022020439", "date": "20221210", "goalieTeam": "MTL", "opponent": "LAK", "shotsAgainst": 34.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3530.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.01 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.9617592245738902, "adjustedSOG": 0.9617592245738902, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.9813869638509084, "adjustedSOG": 0.9617592245738902, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.04226042193609555, "goalHistoryGoals": 5.0, "goalHistoryShots": 155.0, "goalExpected": 0.041473827174923136, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.041473827174923136, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.040625555447598126, "goalProbability": 0.040625555447598126, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05776407593704365, "modelSOG": 0.9617592245738902, "historyGames": 173, "seasonGames": { "2024": 85, "2025": 82, "2026": 6 }, "historyGoals": 5.0, "historyShots": 155.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.03225806451612903, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.04226042193609555, "goalieFactor": 1.0365218981504722, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8477416", "name": "Oliver Bjorkstrand", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "OTT", "position": "L", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 1.5454545454545454, "priorSOG": 1.625, "currentTOI": 10.656060606060606, "currentFiveTOI": 9.563636363636364, "ppShare": 0.22211660329531052, "rate": 1.3443680650469, "fifty": 1.376302860888289, "inputs": { "Player": "Oliver Bjorkstrand", "Player_ID": "8477416", "Team": "NYR", "Opponent": "OTT", "Position": "R", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.249571615007904, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.2574202945460151, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 11, "Prior_GP": 80, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 6.844106463878327, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.838232312994121, "Current_PP_SOG60": 25.677603423680456, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 10.829718763117391, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 9.777670454545454, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 9.563636363636364, "Current_PP_Share": 0.22211660329531052, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.5878410367517253, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 701.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3156.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 7, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.145909090909091, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 1.7075872542064692, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 1.1429918481391868, "Other_State_SOG": 0.0675, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9343896732646498, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.625, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-york-rangers/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:45.366524+00:00", "priorGP": 80, "currentTotalSOG": 17.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.0621212121212122, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.55 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 2.452, "currentIXG": 0.22290909090909092, "priorTOI": 13.63625, "priorPPTOI": 2.9779166666666663, "deploymentChange": -2.980189393939394, "ppTOIChange": -1.915795454545454, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021234", "date": "20260407", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 15.016666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025021152", "date": "20260328", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 7.183333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020011", "date": "20251009", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 14.65 }, { "gameId": "2024021198", "date": "20250403", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 10.366666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020505", "date": "20241217", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 16.083333333333332 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 6, "h2hSOG": 1.6, "opponentDefense": { "team": "OTT", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 255.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 25.5, "mostAllowedRank": 25, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.477120373069077, "pkSogAllowed60": 46.82395644283122, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 38.7, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 67.0, "C": 98.0, "R": 48.0, "L": 42.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.8, "L": 4.2, "R": 4.8, "D": 6.7 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 24.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 22.6, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 25.5, "oppPosSogAllowed": 4.2, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8477992", "team": "OTT", "name": "Jonas Johansson", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 0, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "goalsAllowed": null, "xGoalsAgainst": null, "shotsAgainst": null, "scenarioFactor": 1, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; no matching goalie statistics in this snapshot, so the goalie factor remains neutral.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T15:15:50.280Z", "idResolution": "Exact goalie name mapped to one unique MoneyPuck player ID" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.12431726357257634, "goalHistoryGoals": 37.0, "goalHistoryShots": 301.0, "goalExpected": 0.18070689423064928, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.18070689423064928, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.1653200276393395, "goalProbability": 0.1653200276393395, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.453594529332225, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 6.844106463878327, "Current_PP_SOG60": 25.677603423680456, "Current_5v5_Min": 9.563636363636364, "Current_PP_Share": 0.22211660329531052, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.145909090909091, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.1429918481391868, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9604171757553249, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9920036605974645, "Position_Factor": 0.9857697565791972, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 701.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3156.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.838232312994121, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 10.829718763117391, "Prior_5v5_Min": 10.277083333333334, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.5878410367517253, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.914848289218851, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.062091503267974, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.914848289218851, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9920036605974645, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 6.844106463878327, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 25.677603423680456, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 2.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 1.3333333333333333 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021234", "date": "20260407", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 15.016666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025021152", "date": "20260328", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 7.183333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020011", "date": "20251009", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 14.65 }, { "gameId": "2024021198", "date": "20250403", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 10.366666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020505", "date": "20241217", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 16.083333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2024020178", "date": "20241102", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 13.666666666666666 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 126, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 65, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477992", "goalieName": "Jonas Johansson", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8477416", "goals": 0, "sog": 9, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 4, "recordedAttempts": 14, "log": [ { "gameId": "2024020488", "date": "20241214", "season": 2024, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2023020133", "date": "20231030", "season": 2023, "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 6 }, { "gameId": "2021020816", "date": "20220224", "season": 2021, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2 }, { "gameId": "2021020145", "date": "20211103", "season": 2021, "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 5 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477992", "goalieName": "Jonas Johansson", "opponent": "NYR", "games": 4, "availableGames": 4, "shotsAgainst": 43.0, "goalsAgainst": 6.0, "savePct": 0.8604651162790697, "gaa": 2.615328732292045, "gsax": -1.567, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020391", "date": "20251129", "goalieTeam": "TBL", "opponent": "NYR", "shotsAgainst": 13.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.688 }, { "gameId": "2025020265", "date": "20251112", "goalieTeam": "TBL", "opponent": "NYR", "shotsAgainst": 7.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 993.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 0.748 }, { "gameId": "2024021310", "date": "20250417", "goalieTeam": "TBL", "opponent": "NYR", "shotsAgainst": 22.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3573.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.983 }, { "gameId": "2021020399", "date": "20211208", "goalieTeam": "COL", "opponent": "NYR", "shotsAgainst": 1.0, "goalsAgainst": 0.0, "seconds": 93.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 0.014 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.453594529332225, "adjustedSOG": 1.453594529332225, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.4832597238083929, "adjustedSOG": 1.453594529332225, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.12431726357257634, "goalHistoryGoals": 37.0, "goalHistoryShots": 301.0, "goalExpected": 0.18439479003127476, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.18439479003127476, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.16839257131145904, "goalProbability": 0.16839257131145904, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12851222692603112, "modelSOG": 1.453594529332225, "historyGames": 170, "seasonGames": { "2024": 79, "2025": 80, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 37.0, "historyShots": 301.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.12292358803986711, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.12431726357257634, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 54.91000136620317, "btb": { "id": "8477416", "name": "Oliver Bjorkstrand", "score": 54.91000136620317, "components": { "Goal model": 61.16279069767442, "SOG model": 55.348837209302324, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 69.76744186046511, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 52.88838120104438, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 6, "goalieH2HShots": 9, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 147 } }, { "id": "8481477", "name": "Nico Sturm", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "SEA", "position": "C", "currentGP": 4, "currentSOG": 0.5, "priorSOG": 0.7551020408163265, "currentTOI": 9.320833333333333, "currentFiveTOI": 6.841666666666667, "ppShare": 0.0, "rate": 0.7419347200692195, "fifty": 0.7196275529671522, "inputs": { "Player": "Nico Sturm", "Player_ID": "8481477", "Team": "MIN", "Opponent": "SEA", "Position": "C", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 0.8069661741223345, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 0.9699702941327494, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 4, "Prior_GP": 49, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.38489646772229, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.927765237020316, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 7.50141156462585, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 6.841666666666667, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.0029009639219145407, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 711.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 2, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 3.9491666666666667, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.003436917006488252, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.0, "Other_State_SOG": 0.14693877551020407, "Environment_Proxy": 1.1489692159321772, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 0.7551020408163265, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/minnesota-wild/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:45.390292+00:00", "priorGP": 49, "currentTotalSOG": 2.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.0, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.50 SOG/game in 4 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 4 games. 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MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020693", "date": "20260108", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 11.35 }, { "gameId": "2025020465", "date": "20251208", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 11.783333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020387", "date": "20241130", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 10.566666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020371", "date": "20241129", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 12.1 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 50, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478916", "goalieName": "Joey Daccord", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8481477", "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 2, "log": [ { "gameId": "2024020387", "date": "20241130", "season": 2024, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478916", "goalieName": "Joey Daccord", "opponent": "MIN", "games": 5, "availableGames": 6, "shotsAgainst": 123.0, "goalsAgainst": 19.0, "savePct": 0.8455284552845528, "gaa": 4.3387250237868695, "gsax": -6.912000000000001, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021240", "date": "20260407", "goalieTeam": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 28.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3488.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.569 }, { "gameId": "2024020982", "date": "20250304", "goalieTeam": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 20.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3463.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.635 }, { "gameId": "2024020033", "date": "20241012", "goalieTeam": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 38.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3885.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.839 }, { "gameId": "2023021307", "date": "20240418", "goalieTeam": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.121 }, { "gameId": "2023020913", "date": "20240224", "goalieTeam": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 13.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 1329.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.924 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.507187326869806, "adjustedSOG": 0.507187326869806, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.5175380886426593, "adjustedSOG": 0.507187326869806, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.1255063269880198, "goalHistoryGoals": 12.0, "goalHistoryShots": 98.0, "goalExpected": 0.06495430458194038, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.06495430458194038, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.06288971595476076, "goalProbability": 0.06288971595476076, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12850252743627918, "modelSOG": 0.507187326869806, "historyGames": 115, "seasonGames": { "2024": 62, "2025": 49, "2026": 4 }, "historyGoals": 12.0, "historyShots": 98.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.12244897959183673, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.1255063269880198, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 39.68746042347961, "btb": { "id": "8481477", "name": "Nico Sturm", "score": 39.68746042347961, "components": { "Goal model": 21.627906976744185, "SOG model": 6.511627906976744, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 27.209302325581394, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 48.76911600149198, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Likely", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": 1, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 357 } }, { "id": "8478399", "name": "Jonas Siegenthaler", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "LAK", "position": "D", "currentGP": 9, "currentSOG": 0.2222222222222222, "priorSOG": 0.7317073170731707, "currentTOI": 19.29259259259259, "currentFiveTOI": 16.727777777777778, "ppShare": 0.0158146377344612, "rate": 0.6737450533531886, "fifty": 0.5121393175131279, "inputs": { "Player": "Jonas Siegenthaler", "Player_ID": "8478399", "Team": "NJD", "Opponent": "LAK", "Position": "D", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 0.6808016146654052, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 0.6140281637635749, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 9, "Prior_GP": 82, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 0.7970773829292593, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 2.472878866834052, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 16.857981029810297, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 16.727777777777778, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0158146377344612, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.010009328064898175, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 43.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2719.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 4, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.972354497354498, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.06997616776978412, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.0786359850629803, "Other_State_SOG": 0.021951219512195124, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9908219918860978, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 0.7317073170731707, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-jersey-devils/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:45.413696+00:00", "priorGP": 82, "currentTotalSOG": 2.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.07962962962962963, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.22 SOG/game in 9 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 9 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.35, "currentIXG": 0.03888888888888889, "priorTOI": 19.478048780487807, "priorPPTOI": 0.03882113821138211, "deploymentChange": -0.18545618789521612, "ppTOIChange": 0.04080849141824752, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021050", "date": "20260314", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 20.683333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020191", "date": "20251101", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 21.566666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020602", "date": "20250101", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 19.266666666666666 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 0.3333333333333333, "opponentDefense": { "team": "LAK", "games": 7, "sogAllowedTotal": 193.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.571428571428573, "mostAllowedRank": 14, "fiveSogAllowed60": 25.227874154660395, "pkSogAllowed60": 57.61396702230844, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 39.142857142857146, "positionUnassignedSOG": 1.0, "positionTotals": { "C": 86.0, "D": 47.0, "R": 28.0, "L": 31.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 12.285714285714286, "L": 4.428571428571429, "R": 4.0, "D": 6.714285714285714 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 27.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 29.5, "positionSourceDifference": 1.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.571428571428573, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.714285714285714, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8476341", "team": "LAK", "name": "Anton Forsberg", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 3, "savePct": 0.8833333333333333, "gaa": 2.6313041662315966, "gsax": -2.1049999999999995, "goalsAllowed": 7.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.8950000000000005, "shotsAgainst": 60.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0218332511814823, "factor": 1.0218332511814823, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T19:00:24.293Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.03634518882694719, "goalHistoryGoals": 2.0, "goalHistoryShots": 114.0, "goalExpected": 0.007790549336746257, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.007960642357257167, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.007760281658876678, "goalProbability": 0.007929040356895, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.016875869801832172, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 9, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 0.21434884748680016, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 0.7970773829292593, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 16.727777777777778, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0158146377344612, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.972354497354498, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.0786359850629803, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9946407827573338, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.085978140946376, "Position_Factor": 0.98999544178116, "Input_GP": 9, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 43.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2719.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 2.472878866834052, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 17.161788617886177, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.010009328064898175, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9645698136906008, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.34640522875817, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9645698136906008, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.085978140946376, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 0.7970773829292593, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021050", "date": "20260314", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 20.683333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020191", "date": "20251101", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 21.566666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020602", "date": "20250101", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 19.266666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020461", "date": "20241212", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 21.6 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 101, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476341", "goalieName": "Anton Forsberg", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8478399", "goals": 0, "sog": 5, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 6, "recordedAttempts": 10, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021050", "date": "20260314", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2024020737", "date": "20250119", "season": 2024, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 3 }, { "gameId": "2024020062", "date": "20241017", "season": 2024, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2 }, { "gameId": "2023021224", "date": "20240406", "season": 2023, "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2022020213", "date": "20221110", "season": 2022, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2021020234", "date": "20211206", "season": 2021, "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 2 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476341", "goalieName": "Anton Forsberg", "opponent": "NJD", "games": 5, "availableGames": 11, "shotsAgainst": 115.0, "goalsAgainst": 15.0, "savePct": 0.8695652173913043, "gaa": 4.18280402788536, "gsax": -4.362, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021050", "date": "20260314", "goalieTeam": "LAK", "opponent": "NJD", "shotsAgainst": 27.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3466.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.948 }, { "gameId": "2024020737", "date": "20250119", "goalieTeam": "OTT", "opponent": "NJD", "shotsAgainst": 26.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.295 }, { "gameId": "2024020062", "date": "20241017", "goalieTeam": "OTT", "opponent": "NJD", "shotsAgainst": 35.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3470.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.298 }, { "gameId": "2023021224", "date": "20240406", "goalieTeam": "OTT", "opponent": "NJD", "shotsAgainst": 9.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 994.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 0.874 }, { "gameId": "2022020274", "date": "20221119", "goalieTeam": "OTT", "opponent": "NJD", "shotsAgainst": 18.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 1380.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.223 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.21434884748680016, "adjustedSOG": 0.21434884748680016, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.21434884748680016, "adjustedSOG": 0.21434884748680016, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.03634518882694719, "goalHistoryGoals": 2.0, "goalHistoryShots": 114.0, "goalExpected": 0.007790549336746257, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.007790549336746257, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.007760281658876678, "goalProbability": 0.007760281658876678, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05777870408966699, "modelSOG": 0.21434884748680016, "historyGames": 146, "seasonGames": { "2024": 55, "2025": 82, "2026": 9 }, "historyGoals": 2.0, "historyShots": 114.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.017543859649122806, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.03634518882694719, "goalieFactor": 1.0218332511814823, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 37.603572097534666, "btb": { "id": "8478399", "name": "Jonas Siegenthaler", "score": 37.603572097534666, "components": { "Goal model": 1.627906976744186, "SOG model": 1.8604651162790697, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 8.604651162790697, "Goalie": 76.61764705882354, "Team H2H": 59.362178291682206, "Goalie H2H": 47.58410880458125 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": 5, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 383 } }, { "id": "8480009", "name": "Eeli Tolvanen", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "OTT", "position": "R", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 1.2727272727272727, "priorSOG": 1.8076923076923077, "currentTOI": 13.083333333333332, "currentFiveTOI": 10.60909090909091, "ppShare": 0.2252851711026616, "rate": 1.5055965048936324, "fifty": 1.336579052919616, "inputs": { "Player": "Eeli Tolvanen", "Player_ID": "8480009", "Team": "NYR", "Opponent": "OTT", "Position": "R", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.4250325834645656, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.2868097895718116, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 11, "Prior_GP": 78, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.655526992287918, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.602690898137457, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 12.700729927007298, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 11.256940559440558, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 10.60909090909091, "Current_PP_Share": 0.2252851711026616, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.42192127791744993, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 711.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3156.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 7, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.145909090909091, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 1.4628584689219537, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 1.1592970100241966, "Other_State_SOG": 0.22342657342657343, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9343896732646498, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.8076923076923077, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-york-rangers/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:45.436942+00:00", "priorGP": 78, "currentTotalSOG": 14.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.0772727272727272, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.27 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 2.427, "currentIXG": 0.22063636363636363, "priorTOI": 16.042094017094016, "priorPPTOI": 1.7564102564102564, "deploymentChange": -2.9587606837606835, "ppTOIChange": -0.6791375291375292, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021000", "date": "20260307", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 17.216666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2025020063", "date": "20251016", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 15.233333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020505", "date": "20241217", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 14.066666666666666 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 1.3333333333333333, "opponentDefense": { "team": "OTT", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 255.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 25.5, "mostAllowedRank": 25, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.477120373069077, "pkSogAllowed60": 46.82395644283122, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 38.7, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 67.0, "C": 98.0, "R": 48.0, "L": 42.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.8, "L": 4.2, "R": 4.8, "D": 6.7 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 24.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 22.6, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 25.5, "oppPosSogAllowed": 4.8, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8477992", "team": "OTT", "name": "Jonas Johansson", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 0, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "goalsAllowed": null, "xGoalsAgainst": null, "shotsAgainst": null, "scenarioFactor": 1, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; no matching goalie statistics in this snapshot, so the goalie factor remains neutral.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T15:15:50.280Z", "idResolution": "Exact goalie name mapped to one unique MoneyPuck player ID" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.12971759366841176, "goalHistoryGoals": 38.0, "goalHistoryShots": 292.0, "goalExpected": 0.15491605784770057, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.15491605784770057, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.1435129301657695, "goalProbability": 0.1435129301657695, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.1942563338301042, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.655526992287918, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 10.60909090909091, "Current_PP_Share": 0.2252851711026616, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.145909090909091, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.1592970100241966, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.2727272727272727, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9604171757553249, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9920036605974645, "Position_Factor": 0.9940613950498232, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 711.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3156.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.602690898137457, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 12.700729927007298, "Prior_5v5_Min": 12.768589743589745, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.42192127791744993, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9459016393442623, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.382352941176471, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9459016393442623, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9920036605974645, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.655526992287918, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021000", "date": "20260307", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 17.216666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2025020063", "date": "20251016", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 15.233333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020505", "date": "20241217", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 14.066666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020178", "date": "20241102", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 12.433333333333334 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 149, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 43, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477992", "goalieName": "Jonas Johansson", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8480009", "goals": 0, "sog": 11, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 3, "recordedAttempts": 16, "log": [ { "gameId": "2024020488", "date": "20241214", "season": 2024, "goals": 0, "sog": 5, "attempts": 7 }, { "gameId": "2023020133", "date": "20231030", "season": 2023, "goals": 0, "sog": 4, "attempts": 5 }, { "gameId": "2021020321", "date": "20211127", "season": 2021, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 4 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477992", "goalieName": "Jonas Johansson", "opponent": "NYR", "games": 4, "availableGames": 4, "shotsAgainst": 43.0, "goalsAgainst": 6.0, "savePct": 0.8604651162790697, "gaa": 2.615328732292045, "gsax": -1.567, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020391", "date": "20251129", "goalieTeam": "TBL", "opponent": "NYR", "shotsAgainst": 13.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.688 }, { "gameId": "2025020265", "date": "20251112", "goalieTeam": "TBL", "opponent": "NYR", "shotsAgainst": 7.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 993.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 0.748 }, { "gameId": "2024021310", "date": "20250417", "goalieTeam": "TBL", "opponent": "NYR", "shotsAgainst": 22.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3573.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.983 }, { "gameId": "2021020399", "date": "20211208", "goalieTeam": "COL", "opponent": "NYR", "shotsAgainst": 1.0, "goalsAgainst": 0.0, "seconds": 93.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 0.014 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.1942563338301042, "adjustedSOG": 1.1942563338301042, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.218628912071535, "adjustedSOG": 1.1942563338301042, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.12971759366841176, "goalHistoryGoals": 38.0, "goalHistoryShots": 292.0, "goalExpected": 0.15807761004867407, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.15807761004867407, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.1462164827832186, "goalProbability": 0.1462164827832186, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12849296718017414, "modelSOG": 1.1942563338301042, "historyGames": 170, "seasonGames": { "2024": 81, "2025": 78, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 38.0, "historyShots": 292.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.13013698630136986, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.12971759366841176, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 52.941361692530556, "btb": { "id": "8480009", "name": "Eeli Tolvanen", "score": 52.941361692530556, "components": { "Goal model": 53.72093023255814, "SOG model": 40.69767441860465, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 69.06976744186046, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 55.03543453935099, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": 11, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 173 } }, { "id": "8485957", "name": "Alberts Smits", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "OTT", "position": "D", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 0.45454545454545453, "priorSOG": null, "currentTOI": 15.066666666666665, "currentFiveTOI": 14.774242424242425, "ppShare": 0.012357414448669201, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-york-rangers/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:45.439332+00:00", "priorGP": null, "currentTotalSOG": 5.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.05909090909090909, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.45 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.5670000000000001, "currentIXG": 0.051545454545454554, "priorTOI": null, "priorPPTOI": null, "deploymentChange": null, "ppTOIChange": null, "h2hLog": [], "h2hGames": 0, "h2hAvailableGames": 0, "h2hSOG": null, "opponentDefense": { "team": "OTT", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 255.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 25.5, "mostAllowedRank": 25, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.477120373069077, "pkSogAllowed60": 46.82395644283122, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 38.7, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 67.0, "C": 98.0, "R": 48.0, "L": 42.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.8, "L": 4.2, "R": 4.8, "D": 6.7 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 24.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 22.6, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 25.5, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.7, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8477992", "team": "OTT", "name": "Jonas Johansson", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 0, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "goalsAllowed": null, "xGoalsAgainst": null, "shotsAgainst": null, "scenarioFactor": 1, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; no matching goalie statistics in this snapshot, so the goalie factor remains neutral.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T15:15:50.280Z", "idResolution": "Exact goalie name mapped to one unique MoneyPuck player ID" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.05493278598542972, "goalHistoryGoals": 0.0, "goalHistoryShots": 5.0, "goalExpected": 0.023393507229468882, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.023393507229468882, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.023122000425559116, "goalProbability": 0.023122000425559116, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 0.4258569233257846, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 1.8459645164598504, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 14.774242424242425, "Current_PP_Share": 0.012357414448669201, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.145909090909091, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.0635901313515382, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9604171757553249, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9920036605974645, "Position_Factor": 0.9967592108017584, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 39.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3156.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": null, "Prior_PP_SOG60": null, "Prior_5v5_Min": null, "Prior_PP_Share": null, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9560053380782918, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.34640522875817, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9560053380782918, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9920036605974645, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 1.8459645164598504, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 1, "playerPriorWeight": 0, "currentSeasonOnly": true }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 1, "playerPriorWeight": 0, "currentSeasonOnly": true }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477992", "goalieName": "Jonas Johansson", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8485957", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477992", "goalieName": "Jonas Johansson", "opponent": "NYR", "games": 4, "availableGames": 4, "shotsAgainst": 43.0, "goalsAgainst": 6.0, "savePct": 0.8604651162790697, "gaa": 2.615328732292045, "gsax": -1.567, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020391", "date": "20251129", "goalieTeam": "TBL", "opponent": "NYR", "shotsAgainst": 13.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.688 }, { "gameId": "2025020265", "date": "20251112", "goalieTeam": "TBL", "opponent": "NYR", "shotsAgainst": 7.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 993.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 0.748 }, { "gameId": "2024021310", "date": "20250417", "goalieTeam": "TBL", "opponent": "NYR", "shotsAgainst": 22.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3573.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.983 }, { "gameId": "2021020399", "date": "20211208", "goalieTeam": "COL", "opponent": "NYR", "shotsAgainst": 1.0, "goalsAgainst": 0.0, "seconds": 93.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 0.014 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.4258569233257846, "adjustedSOG": 0.4258569233257846, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.43454788094467817, "adjustedSOG": 0.4258569233257846, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.05493278598542972, "goalHistoryGoals": 0.0, "goalHistoryShots": 5.0, "goalExpected": 0.023870925744356, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.023870925744356, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.02358826875791814, "goalProbability": 0.02358826875791814, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.057679425284701206, "modelSOG": 0.4258569233257846, "historyGames": 11, "seasonGames": { "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 0.0, "historyShots": 5.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.0, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.05493278598542972, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": 34.372093023255815, "btb": { "id": "8485957", "name": "Alberts Smits", "score": 34.372093023255815, "components": { "Goal model": 4.4186046511627906, "SOG model": 4.883720930232558, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 7.441860465116279, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 50.0, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral", "Team H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 0, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 413 } }, { "id": "8483766", "name": "David Spacek", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "SEA", "position": "D", "currentGP": 6, "currentSOG": 1.3333333333333333, "priorSOG": 0, "currentTOI": 13.030555555555557, "currentFiveTOI": 11.263888888888888, "ppShare": 0.1162349968414403, "rate": 0.12215774145006966, "fifty": 0.642789787514737, "inputs": { "Player": "David Spacek", "Player_ID": "8483766", "Team": "MIN", "Opponent": "SEA", "Position": "D", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 0.0530243041595539, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 0.23962759459919677, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 6, "Prior_GP": 2, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 6.2145499383477185, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 0, "Current_PP_SOG60": 19.565217391304348, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 11.06472222222222, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 11.263888888888888, "Current_PP_Share": 0.1162349968414403, "Prior_PP_Share": 0, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 184.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1583.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 2, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 3.9491666666666667, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.3213219625184249, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.4590313750263213, "Other_State_SOG": 0.0, "Environment_Proxy": 1.1489692159321772, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 0, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/minnesota-wild/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:45.459494+00:00", "priorGP": 2, "currentTotalSOG": 8.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.5111111111111112, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.33 SOG/game in 6 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 6 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.122, "currentIXG": 0.02033333333333333, "priorTOI": 10.75, "priorPPTOI": 0, "deploymentChange": 2.280555555555557, "ppTOIChange": 0.5111111111111112, "h2hLog": [], "h2hGames": 0, "h2hAvailableGames": 0, "h2hSOG": null, "opponentDefense": { "team": "SEA", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 311.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 31.1, "mostAllowedRank": 3, "fiveSogAllowed60": 29.01212141229316, "pkSogAllowed60": 57.63738641280831, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 48.5, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 101.0, "R": 65.0, "L": 58.0, "D": 87.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.1, "L": 5.8, "R": 6.5, "D": 8.7 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 31.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 3, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 28.666666666666668, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 31.1, "oppPosSogAllowed": 8.7, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8478916", "team": "SEA", "name": "Joey Daccord", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 5, "savePct": 0.881578947368421, "gaa": 3.8855909336211547, "gsax": -2.3970000000000002, "goalsAllowed": 18.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 15.603, "shotsAgainst": 152.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.024854248577667, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Likely starter per Daily Faceoff; no Model Goal adjustment until confirmed.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T20:31:39.541Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.053410576534768, "goalHistoryGoals": 0.0, "goalHistoryShots": 8.0, "goalExpected": 0.07524804651340519, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.07524804651340519, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.07248660867025443, "goalProbability": 0.07248660867025443, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 6, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.4088604054745961, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 6.2145499383477185, "Current_PP_SOG60": 19.565217391304348, "Current_5v5_Min": 11.263888888888888, "Current_PP_Share": 0.1162349968414403, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 3.9491666666666667, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.4590313750263213, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0689197555315912, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0920680305430235, "Position_Factor": 1.0046361324392672, "Input_GP": 6, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 184.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1583.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 10.6, "Prior_PP_Share": 0, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0921263345195729, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.34640522875817, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0921263345195729, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0920680305430235, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 6.2145499383477185, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 19.565217391304348, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478916", "goalieName": "Joey Daccord", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8483766", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478916", "goalieName": "Joey Daccord", "opponent": "MIN", "games": 5, "availableGames": 6, "shotsAgainst": 123.0, "goalsAgainst": 19.0, "savePct": 0.8455284552845528, "gaa": 4.3387250237868695, "gsax": -6.912000000000001, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021240", "date": "20260407", "goalieTeam": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 28.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3488.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.569 }, { "gameId": "2024020982", "date": "20250304", "goalieTeam": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 20.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3463.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.635 }, { "gameId": "2024020033", "date": "20241012", "goalieTeam": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 38.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3885.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.839 }, { "gameId": "2023021307", "date": "20240418", "goalieTeam": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.121 }, { "gameId": "2023020913", "date": "20240224", "goalieTeam": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 13.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 1329.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.924 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.4088604054745961, "adjustedSOG": 1.4088604054745961, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.437612658647547, "adjustedSOG": 1.4088604054745961, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.053410576534768, "goalHistoryGoals": 0.0, "goalHistoryShots": 8.0, "goalExpected": 0.07678372093204612, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.07678372093204612, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.07390987414237142, "goalProbability": 0.07390987414237142, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05768342265754944, "modelSOG": 1.4088604054745961, "historyGames": 8, "seasonGames": { "2025": 2, "2026": 6 }, "historyGoals": 0.0, "historyShots": 8.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.0, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.053410576534768, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": 41.7906976744186, "btb": { "id": "8483766", "name": "David Spacek", "score": 41.7906976744186, "components": { "Goal model": 25.813953488372093, "SOG model": 52.325581395348834, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 15.116279069767442, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 50.0, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral", "Team H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Likely", "h2hGames": 0, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 323 } }, { "id": "8481604", "name": "Pavel Dorofeyev", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "OTT", "position": "R", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 3.1818181818181817, "priorSOG": 2.8048780487804876, "currentTOI": 17.46969696969697, "currentFiveTOI": 13.55, "ppShare": 0.6641318124207858, "rate": 2.7118307972859386, "fifty": 2.883152077893719, "inputs": { "Player": "Pavel Dorofeyev", "Player_ID": "8481604", "Team": "NYR", "Opponent": "OTT", "Position": "R", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 2.431215422528004, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 2.575321517935438, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 11, "Prior_GP": 82, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 9.661187520966118, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 7.5589417481552585, "Current_PP_SOG60": 18.893129770992367, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 16.685205784204673, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 13.550609756097561, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 13.55, "Current_PP_Share": 0.6641318124207858, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.7202756115799592, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2096.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3156.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 7, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.145909090909091, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 3.504235197045462, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 3.417561931098053, "Other_State_SOG": 0.1426829268292683, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9343896732646498, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 2.8048780487804876, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-york-rangers/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:45.479666+00:00", "priorGP": 82, "currentTotalSOG": 35.0, "currentPPTOI": 3.1757575757575753, "volumeNote": "Observed 3.18 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 5.444, "currentIXG": 0.4949090909090909, "priorTOI": 17.604471544715448, "priorPPTOI": 3.2890243902439025, "deploymentChange": -0.13477457501847923, "ppTOIChange": -0.11326681448632714, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020821", "date": "20260125", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 17.683333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020373", "date": "20251126", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 14.5 }, { "gameId": "2024020307", "date": "20241121", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 15.783333333333333 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 1.3333333333333333, "opponentDefense": { "team": "OTT", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 255.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 25.5, "mostAllowedRank": 25, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.477120373069077, "pkSogAllowed60": 46.82395644283122, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 38.7, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 67.0, "C": 98.0, "R": 48.0, "L": 42.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.8, "L": 4.2, "R": 4.8, "D": 6.7 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 24.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 22.6, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 25.5, "oppPosSogAllowed": 4.8, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8477992", "team": "OTT", "name": "Jonas Johansson", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 0, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "goalsAllowed": null, "xGoalsAgainst": null, "shotsAgainst": null, "scenarioFactor": 1, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; no matching goalie statistics in this snapshot, so the goalie factor remains neutral.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T15:15:50.280Z", "idResolution": "Exact goalie name mapped to one unique MoneyPuck player ID" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.14052276366815009, "goalHistoryGoals": 74.0, "goalHistoryShots": 518.0, "goalExpected": 0.43122142852549233, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.43122142852549233, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.3502849705953337, "goalProbability": 0.3502849705953337, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 3.068694475322435, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 9.661187520966118, "Current_PP_SOG60": 18.893129770992367, "Current_5v5_Min": 13.55, "Current_PP_Share": 0.6641318124207858, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.145909090909091, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 3.417561931098053, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9604171757553249, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9920036605974645, "Position_Factor": 0.9940613950498232, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2096.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3156.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 7.5589417481552585, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 16.685205784204673, "Prior_5v5_Min": 13.552032520325204, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.7202756115799592, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9459016393442623, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.382352941176471, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9459016393442623, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9920036605974645, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 9.661187520966118, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 18.893129770992367, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020821", "date": "20260125", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 17.683333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020373", "date": "20251126", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 14.5 }, { "gameId": "2024020307", "date": "20241121", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 15.783333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020118", "date": "20241025", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 17.383333333333333 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 212, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 105, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477992", "goalieName": "Jonas Johansson", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8481604", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477992", "goalieName": "Jonas Johansson", "opponent": "NYR", "games": 4, "availableGames": 4, "shotsAgainst": 43.0, "goalsAgainst": 6.0, "savePct": 0.8604651162790697, "gaa": 2.615328732292045, "gsax": -1.567, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020391", "date": "20251129", "goalieTeam": "TBL", "opponent": "NYR", "shotsAgainst": 13.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.688 }, { "gameId": "2025020265", "date": "20251112", "goalieTeam": "TBL", "opponent": "NYR", "shotsAgainst": 7.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 993.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 0.748 }, { "gameId": "2024021310", "date": "20250417", "goalieTeam": "TBL", "opponent": "NYR", "shotsAgainst": 22.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3573.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.983 }, { "gameId": "2021020399", "date": "20211208", "goalieTeam": "COL", "opponent": "NYR", "shotsAgainst": 1.0, "goalsAgainst": 0.0, "seconds": 93.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 0.014 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 3.068694475322435, "adjustedSOG": 3.068694475322435, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 3.131320893186158, "adjustedSOG": 3.068694475322435, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.14052276366815009, "goalHistoryGoals": 74.0, "goalHistoryShots": 518.0, "goalExpected": 0.4400218658423391, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.4400218658423391, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.35597766116174206, "goalProbability": 0.35597766116174206, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1284306794691675, "modelSOG": 3.068694475322435, "historyGames": 175, "seasonGames": { "2024": 82, "2025": 82, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 74.0, "historyShots": 518.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.14285714285714285, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.14052276366815009, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 65.32978409652767, "btb": { "id": "8481604", "name": "Pavel Dorofeyev", "score": 65.32978409652767, "components": { "Goal model": 96.97674418604652, "SOG model": 95.81395348837209, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 97.90697674418605, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 42.35359940320776, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 32 } }, { "id": "8480023", "name": "Robert Thomas", "team": "STL", "opponent": "CAR", "position": "C", "currentGP": 9, "currentSOG": 1.0, "priorSOG": 1.59375, "currentTOI": 20.32962962962963, "currentFiveTOI": 14.549999999999999, "ppShare": 0.5609848484848485, "rate": 1.3658701842985463, "fifty": 1.1589289231284845, "inputs": { "Player": "Robert Thomas", "Player_ID": "8480023", "Team": "STL", "Opponent": "CAR", "Position": "C", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.5241579281451265, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.3293960764246153, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 9, "Prior_GP": 64, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.290950744558992, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.774362328319163, "Current_PP_SOG60": 4.861580013504389, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 7.154063382491371, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 14.4853125, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 14.549999999999999, "Current_PP_Share": 0.5609848484848485, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.6036103815793364, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1481.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2640.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 5, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.016414141414142, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 2.8782805251586154, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 2.8141323270584637, "Other_State_SOG": 0.13472222222222222, "Environment_Proxy": 0.85, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.59375, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/st-louis-blues/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:45.498987+00:00", "priorGP": 64, "currentTotalSOG": 9.0, "currentPPTOI": 2.7425925925925925, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.00 SOG/game in 9 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 9 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.7309999999999999, "currentIXG": 0.19233333333333333, "priorTOI": 19.015104166666667, "priorPPTOI": 2.48984375, "deploymentChange": 1.314525462962962, "ppTOIChange": 0.25274884259259256, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021033", "date": "20260312", "team": "STL", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 18.683333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020084", "date": "20241019", "team": "STL", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 20.966666666666665 } ], "h2hGames": 2, "h2hAvailableGames": 2, "h2hSOG": 0.5, "opponentDefense": { "team": "CAR", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 246.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 22.363636363636363, "mostAllowedRank": 31, "fiveSogAllowed60": 21.75191064079953, "pkSogAllowed60": 32.87187039764359, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 33.09090909090909, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 77.0, "R": 66.0, "D": 59.0, "L": 44.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.0, "L": 4.0, "R": 6.0, "D": 5.363636363636363 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 23.0, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 7, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 22.428571428571427, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 22.363636363636363, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.0, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8481611", "team": "CAR", "name": "Pyotr Kochetkov", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 6, "savePct": 0.8991596638655462, "gaa": 1.9842910293509715, "gsax": 2.2720000000000002, "goalsAllowed": 12.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 14.272, "shotsAgainst": 119.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9828959307519136, "factor": 0.9828959307519136, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T22:32:34.088Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.16808183164996135, "goalHistoryGoals": 47.0, "goalHistoryShots": 256.0, "goalExpected": 0.15067260960925824, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.1480954948607116, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.13987074938056376, "goalProbability": 0.13765123886490405, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.22195105156597172, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 9, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 0.8964241294266792, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.290950744558992, "Current_PP_SOG60": 4.861580013504389, "Current_5v5_Min": 14.549999999999999, "Current_PP_Share": 0.5609848484848485, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.016414141414142, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 2.8141323270584637, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.2222222222222222, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9235603264096603, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.85, "Position_Factor": 0.9873314343303702, "Input_GP": 9, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1481.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2640.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.774362328319163, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 7.154063382491371, "Prior_5v5_Min": 14.334375, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.6036103815793364, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.8646946313151299, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.437908496732026, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.8646946313151299, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.85, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 2.290950744558992, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 4.861580013504389, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 1.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 0.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021033", "date": "20260312", "team": "STL", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 18.683333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020084", "date": "20241019", "team": "STL", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 20.966666666666665 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 104, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 22, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481611", "goalieName": "Pyotr Kochetkov", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8480023", "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 2, "recordedAttempts": 4, "log": [ { "gameId": "2024020084", "date": "20241019", "season": 2024, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 3 }, { "gameId": "2022020369", "date": "20221201", "season": 2022, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481611", "goalieName": "Pyotr Kochetkov", "opponent": "STL", "games": 3, "availableGames": 3, "shotsAgainst": 60.0, "goalsAgainst": 6.0, "savePct": 0.9, "gaa": 2.610587382160986, "gsax": -0.46099999999999985, "log": [ { "gameId": "2024020284", "date": "20241117", "goalieTeam": "CAR", "opponent": "STL", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3598.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.005 }, { "gameId": "2024020084", "date": "20241019", "goalieTeam": "CAR", "opponent": "STL", "shotsAgainst": 19.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3476.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.804 }, { "gameId": "2022020369", "date": "20221201", "goalieTeam": "CAR", "opponent": "STL", "shotsAgainst": 11.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 1200.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 0.73 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.8964241294266792, "adjustedSOG": 0.8964241294266792, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.8964241294266792, "adjustedSOG": 0.8964241294266792, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.16808183164996135, "goalHistoryGoals": 47.0, "goalHistoryShots": 256.0, "goalExpected": 0.15067260960925824, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.15067260960925824, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.13987074938056376, "goalProbability": 0.13987074938056376, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1283713206738624, "modelSOG": 0.8964241294266792, "historyGames": 143, "seasonGames": { "2024": 70, "2025": 64, "2026": 9 }, "historyGoals": 47.0, "historyShots": 256.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.18359375, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.16808183164996135, "goalieFactor": 0.9828959307519136, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 49.5039165458983, "btb": { "id": "8480023", "name": "Robert Thomas", "score": 49.5039165458983, "components": { "Goal model": 51.86046511627907, "SOG model": 21.3953488372093, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 61.16279069767442, "Goalie": 50.14705882352941, "Team H2H": 46.257615317667536, "Goalie H2H": 49.92428831011508 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 2, "goalieH2HShots": 2, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 206 } }, { "id": "8479619", "name": "Michael Carcone", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "TBL", "position": "L", "currentGP": 5, "currentSOG": 3.4, "priorSOG": 1.860759493670886, "currentTOI": 12.486666666666666, "currentFiveTOI": 10.963333333333335, "ppShare": 0.2498627127951675, "rate": 1.7634697114272873, "fifty": 2.1753422527571478, "inputs": { "Player": "Michael Carcone", "Player_ID": "8479619", "Team": "UTA", "Opponent": "TBL", "Position": "L", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 2.2612537049933397, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 2.8539750171877962, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 5, "Prior_GP": 79, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 13.13469139556096, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 8.437193415936921, "Current_PP_SOG60": 39.56043956043956, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 13.096862210095498, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 11.158004219409284, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 10.963333333333335, "Current_PP_Share": 0.2498627127951675, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.19483289479598506, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 455.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1821.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 5, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.821018518518519, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 1.1250028339793479, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 1.2045927654727766, "Other_State_SOG": 0.02278481012658228, "Environment_Proxy": 0.8844868901771036, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.860759493670886, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/utah-mammoth/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:45.521003+00:00", "priorGP": 79, "currentTotalSOG": 17.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.5166666666666666, "volumeNote": "Observed 3.40 SOG/game in 5 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 5 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.521, "currentIXG": 0.30419999999999997, "priorTOI": 12.725316455696202, "priorPPTOI": 0.9278481012658227, "deploymentChange": -0.2386497890295356, "ppTOIChange": 0.5888185654008439, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020825", "date": "20260126", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 12.916666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020194", "date": "20251102", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 10.433333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024021145", "date": "20250327", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 12.8 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 2.3333333333333335, "opponentDefense": { "team": "TBL", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 218.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 24.22222222222222, "mostAllowedRank": 29, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.310572168589594, "pkSogAllowed60": 47.9002079002079, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 36.333333333333336, "positionUnassignedSOG": 1.0, "positionTotals": { "L": 36.0, "R": 49.0, "D": 66.0, "C": 66.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.333333333333333, "L": 4.0, "R": 5.444444444444445, "D": 7.333333333333333 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 24.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.25, "positionSourceDifference": 1.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 24.22222222222222, "oppPosSogAllowed": 4.0, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8483710", "team": "TBL", "name": "Dennis Hildeby", "status": "Unconfirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 2, "savePct": 0.92, "gaa": 2.0089285714285716, "gsax": 0.8719999999999999, "goalsAllowed": 4.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.872, "shotsAgainst": 50.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9926942170737747, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Starter remains unconfirmed per Daily Faceoff; no Model Goal adjustment.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": null }, "goalShootingPct": 0.10871892225005274, "goalHistoryGoals": 24.0, "goalHistoryShots": 239.0, "goalExpected": 0.32162356877987486, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.32162356877987486, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.2750289592946108, "goalProbability": 0.2750289592946108, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 5, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 2.9583035052549818, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 13.13469139556096, "Current_PP_SOG60": 39.56043956043956, "Current_5v5_Min": 10.963333333333335, "Current_PP_Share": 0.2498627127951675, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.821018518518519, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.2045927654727766, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9588832837562793, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0032616490671127, "Position_Factor": 0.9867937882386387, "Input_GP": 5, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 455.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1821.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 8.437193415936921, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 13.096862210095498, "Prior_5v5_Min": 11.612236286919831, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.19483289479598506, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9006149977914444, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.062091503267974, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9006149977914444, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0032616490671127, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 13.13469139556096, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 39.56043956043956, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 3.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020825", "date": "20260126", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 12.916666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020194", "date": "20251102", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 10.433333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024021145", "date": "20250327", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 12.8 }, { "gameId": "2024021111", "date": "20250322", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 10.566666666666666 } ], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 205, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 23, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8483710", "goalieName": "Dennis Hildeby", "starterStatus": "Unconfirmed", "shooterId": "8479619", "goals": 1, "sog": 4, "shootingPct": 0.25, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 5, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020733", "date": "20260113", "season": 2025, "goals": 1, "sog": 4, "attempts": 5 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8483710", "goalieName": "Dennis Hildeby", "opponent": "UTA", "games": 1, "availableGames": 1, "shotsAgainst": 41.0, "goalsAgainst": 6.0, "savePct": 0.8536585365853658, "gaa": 6.0, "gsax": -1.2770000000000001, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020733", "date": "20260113", "goalieTeam": "TOR", "opponent": "UTA", "shotsAgainst": 41.0, "goalsAgainst": 6.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.723 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 2.9583035052549818, "adjustedSOG": 2.9583035052549818, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 2.9583035052549818, "adjustedSOG": 2.9583035052549818, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.10871892225005274, "goalHistoryGoals": 24.0, "goalHistoryShots": 239.0, "goalExpected": 0.32162356877987486, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.32162356877987486, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.2750289592946108, "goalProbability": 0.2750289592946108, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1285571464276788, "modelSOG": 2.9583035052549818, "historyGames": 137, "seasonGames": { "2024": 53, "2025": 79, "2026": 5 }, "historyGoals": 24.0, "historyShots": 239.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.100418410041841, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.10871892225005274, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8479442", "name": "Troy Stecher", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "EDM", "position": "D", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 0.8181818181818182, "priorSOG": 1, "currentTOI": 18.795454545454547, "currentFiveTOI": 15.124242424242425, "ppShare": 0.018055973517905506, "rate": 0.9146580257253282, "fifty": 0.8845886492666565, "inputs": { "Player": "Troy Stecher", "Player_ID": "8479442", "Team": "TOR", "Opponent": "EDM", "Position": "D", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 0.8019617028260662, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 0.7859771356225329, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 11, "Prior_GP": 64, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.885193348026448, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.3052706929552915, "Current_PP_SOG60": 60.0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 15.607360321969697, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 15.124242424242425, "Current_PP_Share": 0.018055973517905506, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.009308358096445037, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 60.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3323.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 6, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.3053872053872055, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.06643939591083947, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.07773795736480058, "Other_State_SOG": 0.0703125, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9716922687020597, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/toronto-maple-leafs/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:45.542537+00:00", "priorGP": 64, "currentTotalSOG": 9.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.09090909090909091, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.82 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.208, "currentIXG": 0.018909090909090907, "priorTOI": 19.187239583333334, "priorPPTOI": 0.03463541666666667, "deploymentChange": -0.3917850378787868, "ppTOIChange": 0.05627367424242424, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020891", "date": "20260203", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 22.583333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2025020499", "date": "20251213", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 22.133333333333333 } ], "h2hGames": 2, "h2hAvailableGames": 2, "h2hSOG": 0.5, "opponentDefense": { "team": "EDM", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 239.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 26.555555555555557, "mostAllowedRank": 18, "fiveSogAllowed60": 25.09786377362711, "pkSogAllowed60": 57.79388917659244, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 40.111111111111114, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 74.0, "C": 64.0, "L": 57.0, "R": 44.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.111111111111111, "L": 6.333333333333333, "R": 4.888888888888889, "D": 8.222222222222221 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 28.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 24.5, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 26.555555555555557, "oppPosSogAllowed": 8.222222222222221, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8477465", "team": "EDM", "name": "Tristan Jarry", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 3, "savePct": 0.8732394366197183, "gaa": 2.974387221151198, "gsax": -2.739, "goalsAllowed": 9.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 6.261, "shotsAgainst": 71.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0280169850571896, "factor": 1.0280169850571896, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-23T18:50:20.460Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.05162490408749821, "goalHistoryGoals": 6.0, "goalHistoryShots": 128.0, "goalExpected": 0.04313612401514545, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.04434466815710286, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.04221899580301341, "goalProbability": 0.043375817249220294, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.11568214462068863, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 0.8355681192556743, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.885193348026448, "Current_PP_SOG60": 60.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 15.124242424242425, "Current_PP_Share": 0.018055973517905506, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.3053872053872055, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.07773795736480058, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9913228889134689, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0841268017286898, "Position_Factor": 1.0175103897192914, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 60.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3323.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.3052706929552915, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 16.734635416666666, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.009308358096445037, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0564712492976214, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.34640522875817, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0564712492976214, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0841268017286898, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 2.885193348026448, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 60, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020891", "date": "20260203", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 22.583333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2025020499", "date": "20251213", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 22.133333333333333 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 100, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477465", "goalieName": "Tristan Jarry", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8479442", "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 3, "recordedAttempts": 5, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020499", "date": "20251213", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 2 }, { "gameId": "2023020434", "date": "20231212", "season": 2023, "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 2 }, { "gameId": "2022020011", "date": "20221013", "season": 2022, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477465", "goalieName": "Tristan Jarry", "opponent": "TOR", "games": 5, "availableGames": 13, "shotsAgainst": 102.0, "goalsAgainst": 16.0, "savePct": 0.8431372549019608, "gaa": 4.100811618966254, "gsax": -2.944, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020499", "date": "20251213", "goalieTeam": "EDM", "opponent": "TOR", "shotsAgainst": 28.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.854 }, { "gameId": "2025020396", "date": "20251129", "goalieTeam": "PIT", "opponent": "TOR", "shotsAgainst": 13.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 2107.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.626 }, { "gameId": "2025020199", "date": "20251103", "goalieTeam": "PIT", "opponent": "TOR", "shotsAgainst": 20.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3452.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.296 }, { "gameId": "2024020433", "date": "20241207", "goalieTeam": "PIT", "opponent": "TOR", "shotsAgainst": 27.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3571.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.846 }, { "gameId": "2023020466", "date": "20231216", "goalieTeam": "PIT", "opponent": "TOR", "shotsAgainst": 14.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 1316.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.434 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.8355681192556743, "adjustedSOG": 0.8355681192556743, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.852620529852729, "adjustedSOG": 0.8355681192556743, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.05162490408749821, "goalHistoryGoals": 6.0, "goalHistoryShots": 128.0, "goalExpected": 0.044016453076679035, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.04524966138479884, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.043061787234269136, "goalProbability": 0.044241164030510774, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.1179376796241638 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.057704781319495926, "modelSOG": 0.8355681192556743, "historyGames": 141, "seasonGames": { "2024": 66, "2025": 64, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 6.0, "historyShots": 128.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.046875, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.05162490408749821, "goalieFactor": 1.0280169850571896, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 39.71461661755854, "btb": { "id": "8479442", "name": "Troy Stecher", "score": 39.71461661755854, "components": { "Goal model": 12.790697674418604, "SOG model": 17.906976744186046, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 0.23255813953488372, "Goalie": 92.20588235294117, "Team H2H": 46.62750217580505, "Goalie H2H": 50.23158869847151 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 2, "goalieH2HShots": 1, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 356 } }, { "id": "8484145", "name": "Zach Benson", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "WSH", "position": "L", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 1.9, "priorSOG": 1.7846153846153847, "currentTOI": 20.02, "currentFiveTOI": 14.24, "ppShare": 0.6717964824120602, "rate": 2.164303675002162, "fifty": 2.1614248558374767, "inputs": { "Player": "Zach Benson", "Player_ID": "8484145", "Team": "BUF", "Opponent": "WSH", "Position": "L", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 2.044879532136253, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.9639944096918664, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 10, "Prior_GP": 65, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.634831460674158, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.359540302891963, "Current_PP_SOG60": 10.098176718092567, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 8.288564850345358, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 13.843461538461538, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 14.24, "Current_PP_Share": 0.6717964824120602, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.3485400566949271, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2139.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3184.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 5, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.493148148148148, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 3.1575689724027303, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 3.6902776032942484, "Other_State_SOG": 0.18615384615384617, "Environment_Proxy": 1.0834850655013406, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.7846153846153847, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/buffalo-sabres/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:45.563902+00:00", "priorGP": 65, "currentTotalSOG": 19.0, "currentPPTOI": 3.565, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.90 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 3.703, "currentIXG": 0.37029999999999996, "priorTOI": 15.88820512820513, "priorPPTOI": 1.6705128205128204, "deploymentChange": 4.13179487179487, "ppTOIChange": 1.8944871794871796, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021213", "date": "20260404", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 15.333333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025021028", "date": "20260312", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 17.25 }, { "gameId": "2024021171", "date": "20250330", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 15.966666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020637", "date": "20250106", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 13.866666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020480", "date": "20241214", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 18.966666666666665 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 5, "h2hSOG": 1.6, "opponentDefense": { "team": "WSH", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 263.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 29.22222222222222, "mostAllowedRank": 7, "fiveSogAllowed60": 28.540383918869974, "pkSogAllowed60": 52.820345614607106, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.111111111111114, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "L": 48.0, "D": 68.0, "C": 72.0, "R": 75.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 8.0, "L": 5.333333333333333, "R": 8.333333333333334, "D": 7.555555555555555 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 29.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27.5, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 29.22222222222222, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.333333333333333, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8479292", "team": "WSH", "name": "Charlie Lindgren", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 2, "savePct": 0.896551724137931, "gaa": 3.061224489795918, "gsax": 0.2989999999999995, "goalsAllowed": 6.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 6.2989999999999995, "shotsAgainst": 58.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.99868053226692, "factor": 0.99868053226692, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T14:45:41.433Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.10100970067090398, "goalHistoryGoals": 23.0, "goalHistoryShots": 255.0, "goalExpected": 0.19636758020327294, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.19610847951737173, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.17828986521975682, "goalProbability": 0.17807693197583974, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.021293324391707946, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.9440467489657354, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.634831460674158, "Current_PP_SOG60": 10.098176718092567, "Current_5v5_Min": 14.24, "Current_PP_Share": 0.6717964824120602, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.493148148148148, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 3.6902776032942484, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.2, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.053751909733539, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0558974457897532, "Position_Factor": 0.9978620161121851, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2139.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3184.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.359540302891963, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 8.288564850345358, "Prior_5v5_Min": 12.918205128205127, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.3485400566949271, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0253814005640312, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.062091503267974, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0253814005640312, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0558974457897532, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 4.604758250191865, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 13.562970936490851, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 1.3333333333333333 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021213", "date": "20260404", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 15.333333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025021028", "date": "20260312", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 17.25 }, { "gameId": "2024021171", "date": "20250330", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 15.966666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020637", "date": "20250106", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 13.866666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020480", "date": "20241214", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 18.966666666666665 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff latest reported chart; October 21 final lineup pending", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 129, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 20, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479292", "goalieName": "Charlie Lindgren", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8484145", "goals": 1, "sog": 5, "shootingPct": 0.2, "gamesWithAttempts": 4, "recordedAttempts": 6, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021028", "date": "20260312", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2024020637", "date": "20250106", "season": 2024, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2 }, { "gameId": "2023021255", "date": "20240411", "season": 2023, "goals": 1, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2023021189", "date": "20240402", "season": 2023, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479292", "goalieName": "Charlie Lindgren", "opponent": "BUF", "games": 5, "availableGames": 8, "shotsAgainst": 128.0, "goalsAgainst": 16.0, "savePct": 0.875, "gaa": 3.275891486094523, "gsax": -2.283, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021028", "date": "20260312", "goalieTeam": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.161 }, { "gameId": "2025020186", "date": "20251101", "goalieTeam": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3892.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.677 }, { "gameId": "2024020637", "date": "20250106", "goalieTeam": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "shotsAgainst": 27.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3900.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.647 }, { "gameId": "2023021255", "date": "20240411", "goalieTeam": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "shotsAgainst": 16.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3458.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.149 }, { "gameId": "2023021189", "date": "20240402", "goalieTeam": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "shotsAgainst": 31.0, "goalsAgainst": 6.0, "seconds": 2733.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.083 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.9440467489657354, "adjustedSOG": 1.9440467489657354, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.9837211724140158, "adjustedSOG": 1.9440467489657354, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.10100970067090398, "goalHistoryGoals": 23.0, "goalHistoryShots": 255.0, "goalExpected": 0.20037508184007444, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.2001106933850732, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.18157628037447238, "goalProbability": 0.18135986998476056, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.02164103897118186 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1285844373817091, "modelSOG": 1.9440467489657354, "historyGames": 150, "seasonGames": { "2024": 75, "2025": 65, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 23.0, "historyShots": 255.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.09019607843137255, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.10100970067090398, "goalieFactor": 0.99868053226692, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 60.63192046197951, "btb": { "id": "8484145", "name": "Zach Benson", "score": 60.63192046197951, "components": { "Goal model": 66.04651162790698, "SOG model": 74.65116279069767, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 91.16279069767442, "Goalie": 87.05882352941177, "Team H2H": 37.1627502175805, "Goalie H2H": 52.93486041517538 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 5, "goalieH2HShots": 5, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 84 } }, { "id": "8479987", "name": "Morgan Geekie", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "position": "L", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 1.0, "priorSOG": 2.234567901234568, "currentTOI": 17.683333333333334, "currentFiveTOI": 14.511666666666667, "ppShare": 0.6557377049180327, "rate": 2.3812022833399764, "fifty": 1.9551595639842207, "inputs": { "Player": "Morgan Geekie", "Player_ID": "8479987", "Team": "BOS", "Opponent": "SJS", "Position": "C", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 2.252503435863616, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.9562285043409655, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 10, "Prior_GP": 81, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.8942230389341908, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.197140932564928, "Current_PP_SOG60": 6.27906976744186, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 14.224043316016683, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 14.28193209876543, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 14.511666666666667, "Current_PP_Share": 0.6557377049180327, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.6413387163268188, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1720.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2623.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 6, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.950833333333334, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 3.2250619896265933, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 3.246448087431694, "Other_State_SOG": 0.1111111111111111, "Environment_Proxy": 1.0796680236682055, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 2.234567901234568, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/boston-bruins/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:45.587334+00:00", "priorGP": 81, "currentTotalSOG": 10.0, "currentPPTOI": 2.8666666666666667, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.00 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 2.579, "currentIXG": 0.2579, "priorTOI": 17.405761316872425, "priorPPTOI": 2.812139917695473, "deploymentChange": 0.27757201646090834, "ppTOIChange": 0.054526748971193584, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2026020105", "date": "20261013", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 17.766666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025021027", "date": "20260312", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 20.716666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2025020351", "date": "20251123", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "away", "sog": 6.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 8.0, "toi": 16.133333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024021117", "date": "20250322", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 20.75 }, { "gameId": "2024020740", "date": "20250120", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 19.083333333333332 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 5, "h2hSOG": 2.2, "opponentDefense": { "team": "SJS", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 286.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 28.6, "mostAllowedRank": 10, "fiveSogAllowed60": 25.210423540502322, "pkSogAllowed60": 49.90958408679928, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 47.8, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 86.0, "C": 94.0, "R": 53.0, "L": 53.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.4, "L": 5.3, "R": 5.3, "D": 8.6 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 30.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 29.833333333333332, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 28.6, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.3, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8477968", "team": "SJS", "name": "Alex Nedeljkovic", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 4, "savePct": 0.9173553719008265, "gaa": 2.372479240806643, "gsax": 4.638, "goalsAllowed": 10.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 14.638, "shotsAgainst": 121.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9618500831522029, "factor": 0.9618500831522029, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T16:06:01.887Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.19461145428812843, "goalHistoryGoals": 73.0, "goalHistoryShots": 341.0, "goalExpected": 0.2072662286520443, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.19935903926361231, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.187196770328008, "goalProbability": 0.18074430443983394, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.6452465888174053, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.0650258455248995, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.8942230389341908, "Current_PP_SOG60": 6.27906976744186, "Current_5v5_Min": 14.511666666666667, "Current_PP_Share": 0.6557377049180327, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.950833333333334, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 3.246448087431694, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9930883597207428, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0259958714356598, "Position_Factor": 0.999629808538782, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1720.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2623.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.197140932564928, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 14.224043316016683, "Prior_5v5_Min": 13.745884773662553, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.6413387163268188, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0234990316333117, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.062091503267974, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0234990316333117, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0259958714356598, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 2.8942230389341908, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 6.27906976744186, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 3.5 }, { "season": "2026", "label": "2026–27", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 0.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2026020105", "date": "20261013", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 17.766666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025021027", "date": "20260312", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 20.716666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2025020351", "date": "20251123", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "away", "sog": 6.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 8.0, "toi": 16.133333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024021117", "date": "20250322", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 20.75 }, { "gameId": "2024020740", "date": "20250120", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 19.083333333333332 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "ppAssignmentSourceDate": "2026-10-12T22:24:39.463Z", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 169, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 82, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477968", "goalieName": "Alex Nedeljkovic", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8479987", "goals": 1, "sog": 7, "shootingPct": 0.14285714285714285, "gamesWithAttempts": 4, "recordedAttempts": 8, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021027", "date": "20260312", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2023021012", "date": "20240309", "season": 2023, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2 }, { "gameId": "2023020589", "date": "20240104", "season": 2023, "goals": 1, "sog": 2, "attempts": 3 }, { "gameId": "2021020993", "date": "20220319", "season": 2021, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477968", "goalieName": "Alex Nedeljkovic", "opponent": "BOS", "games": 5, "availableGames": 8, "shotsAgainst": 134.0, "goalsAgainst": 17.0, "savePct": 0.8731343283582089, "gaa": 3.7850207186591627, "gsax": -3.2609999999999997, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021027", "date": "20260312", "goalieTeam": "SJS", "opponent": "BOS", "shotsAgainst": 41.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.661 }, { "gameId": "2024020952", "date": "20250301", "goalieTeam": "PIT", "opponent": "BOS", "shotsAgainst": 25.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3474.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.566 }, { "gameId": "2023021279", "date": "20240413", "goalieTeam": "PIT", "opponent": "BOS", "shotsAgainst": 16.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 1895.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.22 }, { "gameId": "2023021012", "date": "20240309", "goalieTeam": "PIT", "opponent": "BOS", "shotsAgainst": 23.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.955 }, { "gameId": "2023020589", "date": "20240104", "goalieTeam": "PIT", "opponent": "BOS", "shotsAgainst": 29.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.337 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.0650258455248995, "adjustedSOG": 1.0650258455248995, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.0650258455248995, "adjustedSOG": 1.0650258455248995, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.19461145428812843, "goalHistoryGoals": 73.0, "goalHistoryShots": 341.0, "goalExpected": 0.2072662286520443, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.2072662286520443, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.187196770328008, "goalProbability": 0.187196770328008, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12823651341064632, "modelSOG": 1.0650258455248995, "historyGames": 168, "seasonGames": { "2024": 77, "2025": 81, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 73.0, "historyShots": 341.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.21407624633431085, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.19461145428812843, "goalieFactor": 0.9618500831522029, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 62.1991708630793, "btb": { "id": "8479987", "name": "Morgan Geekie", "score": 62.1991708630793, "components": { "Goal model": 68.83720930232558, "SOG model": 33.95348837209303, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 77.20930232558139, "Goalie": 97.5, "Team H2H": 61.27067014795474, "Goalie H2H": 50.72523829258185 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 5, "goalieH2HShots": 7, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 61 } }, { "id": "8482110", "name": "Dawson Mercer", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "LAK", "position": "R", "currentGP": 9, "currentSOG": 2.3333333333333335, "priorSOG": 1.9268292682926829, "currentTOI": 15.231481481481483, "currentFiveTOI": 12.505555555555555, "ppShare": 0.11879367414490621, "rate": 1.7751024152445347, "fifty": 1.8556508471124076, "inputs": { "Player": "Dawson Mercer", "Player_ID": "8482110", "Team": "NJD", "Opponent": "LAK", "Position": "C", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.7005256969927605, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.881674368130085, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 9, "Prior_GP": 82, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 7.996446023989338, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.376267618654795, "Current_PP_SOG60": 22.291021671826627, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 14.4076840981857, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 13.04102303523035, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 12.505555555555555, "Current_PP_Share": 0.11879367414490621, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.39282682290301957, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 323.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2719.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 4, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.972354497354498, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.9994612477871747, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.5906842598916892, "Other_State_SOG": 0.2859078590785908, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9908219918860978, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.9268292682926829, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-jersey-devils/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:45.607738+00:00", "priorGP": 82, "currentTotalSOG": 21.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.5981481481481482, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.33 SOG/game in 9 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 9 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 2.101, "currentIXG": 0.23344444444444445, "priorTOI": 18.227032520325203, "priorPPTOI": 1.5235772357723578, "deploymentChange": -2.99555103884372, "ppTOIChange": -0.9254290876242096, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021050", "date": "20260314", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 18.833333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2025020191", "date": "20251101", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 2.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 19.083333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2024020602", "date": "20250101", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 17.066666666666666 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 2.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "LAK", "games": 7, "sogAllowedTotal": 193.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.571428571428573, "mostAllowedRank": 14, "fiveSogAllowed60": 25.227874154660395, "pkSogAllowed60": 57.61396702230844, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 39.142857142857146, "positionUnassignedSOG": 1.0, "positionTotals": { "C": 86.0, "D": 47.0, "R": 28.0, "L": 31.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 12.285714285714286, "L": 4.428571428571429, "R": 4.0, "D": 6.714285714285714 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 27.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 29.5, "positionSourceDifference": 1.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.571428571428573, "oppPosSogAllowed": 4.0, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8476341", "team": "LAK", "name": "Anton Forsberg", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 3, "savePct": 0.8833333333333333, "gaa": 2.6313041662315966, "gsax": -2.1049999999999995, "goalsAllowed": 7.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.8950000000000005, "shotsAgainst": 60.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0218332511814823, "factor": 1.0218332511814823, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T19:00:24.293Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.12345623162661583, "goalHistoryGoals": 39.0, "goalHistoryShots": 320.0, "goalExpected": 0.2682916154689019, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.2741492936993201, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.23531524531783138, "goalProbability": 0.23978142905439498, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.44661837365636003, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 9, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 2.1731719163462717, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 7.996446023989338, "Current_PP_SOG60": 22.291021671826627, "Current_5v5_Min": 12.505555555555555, "Current_PP_Share": 0.11879367414490621, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.972354497354498, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.5906842598916892, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.4444444444444444, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9946407827573338, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.085978140946376, "Position_Factor": 0.9726288799729524, "Input_GP": 9, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 323.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2719.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.376267618654795, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 14.4076840981857, "Prior_5v5_Min": 14.290447154471543, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.39282682290301957, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.8942462230793957, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.382352941176471, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.8942462230793957, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.085978140946376, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 7.996446023989338, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 22.291021671826627, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021050", "date": "20260314", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 18.833333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2025020191", "date": "20251101", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 2.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 19.083333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2024020602", "date": "20250101", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 17.066666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020461", "date": "20241212", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 15.65 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 174, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 47, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476341", "goalieName": "Anton Forsberg", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8482110", "goals": 0, "sog": 7, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 7, "recordedAttempts": 10, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021050", "date": "20260314", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2 }, { "gameId": "2024020737", "date": "20250119", "season": 2024, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2 }, { "gameId": "2024020062", "date": "20241017", "season": 2024, "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2023021224", "date": "20240406", "season": 2023, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2022020213", "date": "20221110", "season": 2022, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2 }, { "gameId": "2021021274", "date": "20220426", "season": 2021, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2021020234", "date": "20211206", "season": 2021, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476341", "goalieName": "Anton Forsberg", "opponent": "NJD", "games": 5, "availableGames": 11, "shotsAgainst": 115.0, "goalsAgainst": 15.0, "savePct": 0.8695652173913043, "gaa": 4.18280402788536, "gsax": -4.362, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021050", "date": "20260314", "goalieTeam": "LAK", "opponent": "NJD", "shotsAgainst": 27.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3466.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.948 }, { "gameId": "2024020737", "date": "20250119", "goalieTeam": "OTT", "opponent": "NJD", "shotsAgainst": 26.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.295 }, { "gameId": "2024020062", "date": "20241017", "goalieTeam": "OTT", "opponent": "NJD", "shotsAgainst": 35.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3470.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.298 }, { "gameId": "2023021224", "date": "20240406", "goalieTeam": "OTT", "opponent": "NJD", "shotsAgainst": 9.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 994.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 0.874 }, { "gameId": "2022020274", "date": "20221119", "goalieTeam": "OTT", "opponent": "NJD", "shotsAgainst": 18.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 1380.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.223 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 2.1731719163462717, "adjustedSOG": 2.1731719163462717, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 2.1731719163462717, "adjustedSOG": 2.1731719163462717, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.12345623162661583, "goalHistoryGoals": 39.0, "goalHistoryShots": 320.0, "goalExpected": 0.2682916154689019, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.2682916154689019, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.23531524531783138, "goalProbability": 0.23531524531783138, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12851617283178646, "modelSOG": 2.1731719163462717, "historyGames": 173, "seasonGames": { "2024": 82, "2025": 82, "2026": 9 }, "historyGoals": 39.0, "historyShots": 320.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.121875, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.12345623162661583, "goalieFactor": 1.0218332511814823, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 62.860005850594895, "btb": { "id": "8482110", "name": "Dawson Mercer", "score": 62.860005850594895, "components": { "Goal model": 80.0, "SOG model": 80.0, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 71.86046511627907, "Goalie": 76.61764705882354, "Team H2H": 56.1544199925401, "Goalie H2H": 45.89031634203619 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": 7, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 55 } }, { "id": "8479346", "name": "Dillon Dube", "team": "STL", "opponent": "CAR", "position": "C", "currentGP": 3, "currentSOG": 0.3333333333333333, "priorSOG": null, "currentTOI": 11.527777777777779, "currentFiveTOI": 9.4, "ppShare": 0.007987220447284345, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/st-louis-blues/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:45.609434+00:00", "priorGP": null, "currentTotalSOG": 1.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.027777777777777776, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.33 SOG/game in 3 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 3 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.258, "currentIXG": 0.08600000000000001, "priorTOI": null, "priorPPTOI": null, "deploymentChange": null, "ppTOIChange": null, "h2hLog": [], "h2hGames": 0, "h2hAvailableGames": 0, "h2hSOG": null, "opponentDefense": { "team": "CAR", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 246.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 22.363636363636363, "mostAllowedRank": 31, "fiveSogAllowed60": 21.75191064079953, "pkSogAllowed60": 32.87187039764359, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 33.09090909090909, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 77.0, "R": 66.0, "D": 59.0, "L": 44.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.0, "L": 4.0, "R": 6.0, "D": 5.363636363636363 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 23.0, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 7, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 22.428571428571427, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 22.363636363636363, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.0, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8481611", "team": "CAR", "name": "Pyotr Kochetkov", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 6, "savePct": 0.8991596638655462, "gaa": 1.9842910293509715, "gsax": 2.2720000000000002, "goalsAllowed": 12.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 14.272, "shotsAgainst": 119.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9828959307519136, "factor": 0.9828959307519136, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T22:32:34.088Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.13711829736765566, "goalHistoryGoals": 1.0, "goalHistoryShots": 1.0, "goalExpected": 0.045706099122551885, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.044924338838099855, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.04467730888738024, "goalProbability": 0.043930183550224926, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.07471253371553119, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 3, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 0.3333333333333333, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 9.4, "Current_PP_Share": 0.007987220447284345, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.016414141414142, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.04006720560234937, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.3333333333333333, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9235603264096603, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.85, "Position_Factor": 0.9873314343303702, "Input_GP": 3, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 5.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 626.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": null, "Prior_PP_SOG60": null, "Prior_5v5_Min": null, "Prior_PP_Share": null, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.8646946313151299, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.437908496732026, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.8646946313151299, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.85, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 0, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 1, "playerPriorWeight": 0, "currentSeasonOnly": true }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 1, "playerPriorWeight": 0, "currentSeasonOnly": true }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481611", "goalieName": "Pyotr Kochetkov", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8479346", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481611", "goalieName": "Pyotr Kochetkov", "opponent": "STL", "games": 3, "availableGames": 3, "shotsAgainst": 60.0, "goalsAgainst": 6.0, "savePct": 0.9, "gaa": 2.610587382160986, "gsax": -0.46099999999999985, "log": [ { "gameId": "2024020284", "date": "20241117", "goalieTeam": "CAR", "opponent": "STL", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3598.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.005 }, { "gameId": "2024020084", "date": "20241019", "goalieTeam": "CAR", "opponent": "STL", "shotsAgainst": 19.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3476.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.804 }, { "gameId": "2022020369", "date": "20221201", "goalieTeam": "CAR", "opponent": "STL", "shotsAgainst": 11.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 1200.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 0.73 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.3333333333333333, "adjustedSOG": 0.3333333333333333, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.3333333333333333, "adjustedSOG": 0.3333333333333333, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.13711829736765566, "goalHistoryGoals": 1.0, "goalHistoryShots": 1.0, "goalExpected": 0.045706099122551885, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.045706099122551885, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.04467730888738024, "goalProbability": 0.04467730888738024, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1284894803413322, "modelSOG": 0.3333333333333333, "historyGames": 3, "seasonGames": { "2026": 3 }, "historyGoals": 1.0, "historyShots": 1.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 1.0, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.13711829736765566, "goalieFactor": 0.9828959307519136, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8478443", "name": "Brandon Carlo", "team": "STL", "opponent": "CAR", "position": "D", "currentGP": 9, "currentSOG": 0.6666666666666666, "priorSOG": 1.2, "currentTOI": 17.035185185185185, "currentFiveTOI": 14.544444444444444, "ppShare": 0.0, "rate": 0.9621878614746893, "fifty": 0.8785050733577555, "inputs": { "Player": "Brandon Carlo", "Player_ID": "8478443", "Team": "STL", "Opponent": "CAR", "Position": "D", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.0994738304153966, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.0441776951201855, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 9, "Prior_GP": 55, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.750190985485103, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.606259922885008, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 36.36363636363637, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 14.990929292929291, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 14.544444444444444, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.008062577839928331, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2640.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 5, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.016414141414142, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.012133568847740629, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.0, "Other_State_SOG": 0.19636363636363635, "Environment_Proxy": 0.85, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.2, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/st-louis-blues/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:45.628605+00:00", "priorGP": 55, "currentTotalSOG": 6.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.0, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.67 SOG/game in 9 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 9 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.415, "currentIXG": 0.04611111111111111, "priorTOI": 19.365454545454543, "priorPPTOI": 0.03, "deploymentChange": -2.3302693602693587, "ppTOIChange": -0.03, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021094", "date": "20260320", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 16.4 }, { "gameId": "2025020246", "date": "20251109", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 19.9 }, { "gameId": "2024021279", "date": "20250413", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 22.016666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020992", "date": "20250306", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 20.966666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2024020165", "date": "20241031", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 18.916666666666668 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 5, "h2hSOG": 0.4, "opponentDefense": { "team": "CAR", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 246.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 22.363636363636363, "mostAllowedRank": 31, "fiveSogAllowed60": 21.75191064079953, "pkSogAllowed60": 32.87187039764359, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 33.09090909090909, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 77.0, "R": 66.0, "D": 59.0, "L": 44.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.0, "L": 4.0, "R": 6.0, "D": 5.363636363636363 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 23.0, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 7, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 22.428571428571427, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 22.363636363636363, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.363636363636363, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8481611", "team": "CAR", "name": "Pyotr Kochetkov", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 6, "savePct": 0.8991596638655462, "gaa": 1.9842910293509715, "gsax": 2.2720000000000002, "goalsAllowed": 12.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 14.272, "shotsAgainst": 119.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9828959307519136, "factor": 0.9828959307519136, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T22:32:34.088Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.02724849382465082, "goalHistoryGoals": 1.0, "goalHistoryShots": 149.0, "goalExpected": 0.015597503935609729, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.01533072314819776, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.015476492845008119, "goalProbability": 0.015213805850180052, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.026268699482806697, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 9, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 0.5724171044455741, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.750190985485103, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 14.544444444444444, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.016414141414142, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.0, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9235603264096603, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.85, "Position_Factor": 0.9854836768055022, "Input_GP": 9, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2640.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.606259922885008, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 36.36363636363637, "Prior_5v5_Min": 16.03272727272727, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.008062577839928331, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.8586256566683613, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.34640522875817, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.8586256566683613, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.85, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 2.750190985485103, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 0.3333333333333333 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021094", "date": "20260320", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 16.4 }, { "gameId": "2025020246", "date": "20251109", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 19.9 }, { "gameId": "2024021279", "date": "20250413", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 22.016666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020992", "date": "20250306", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 20.966666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2024020165", "date": "20241031", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 18.916666666666668 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 81, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481611", "goalieName": "Pyotr Kochetkov", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8478443", "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 3, "recordedAttempts": 8, "log": [ { "gameId": "2024020165", "date": "20241031", "season": 2024, "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 3 }, { "gameId": "2023021239", "date": "20240409", "season": 2023, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2 }, { "gameId": "2022020318", "date": "20221125", "season": 2022, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 3 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481611", "goalieName": "Pyotr Kochetkov", "opponent": "STL", "games": 3, "availableGames": 3, "shotsAgainst": 60.0, "goalsAgainst": 6.0, "savePct": 0.9, "gaa": 2.610587382160986, "gsax": -0.46099999999999985, "log": [ { "gameId": "2024020284", "date": "20241117", "goalieTeam": "CAR", "opponent": "STL", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3598.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.005 }, { "gameId": "2024020084", "date": "20241019", "goalieTeam": "CAR", "opponent": "STL", "shotsAgainst": 19.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3476.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.804 }, { "gameId": "2022020369", "date": "20221201", "goalieTeam": "CAR", "opponent": "STL", "shotsAgainst": 11.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 1200.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 0.73 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.5724171044455741, "adjustedSOG": 0.5724171044455741, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.5724171044455741, "adjustedSOG": 0.5724171044455741, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.02724849382465082, "goalHistoryGoals": 1.0, "goalHistoryShots": 149.0, "goalExpected": 0.015597503935609729, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.015597503935609729, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.015476492845008119, "goalProbability": 0.015476492845008119, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05784874962338054, "modelSOG": 0.5724171044455741, "historyGames": 147, "seasonGames": { "2024": 83, "2025": 55, "2026": 9 }, "historyGoals": 1.0, "historyShots": 149.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.006711409395973154, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.02724849382465082, "goalieFactor": 0.9828959307519136, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 32.12664709749855, "btb": { "id": "8478443", "name": "Brandon Carlo", "score": 32.12664709749855, "components": { "Goal model": 2.7906976744186047, "SOG model": 8.604651162790697, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 10.232558139534884, "Goalie": 50.14705882352941, "Team H2H": 34.55178416013925, "Goalie H2H": 49.17545684147972 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 5, "goalieH2HShots": 3, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 427 } }, { "id": "8479671", "name": "Mathieu Olivier", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "VGK", "position": "R", "currentGP": 8, "currentSOG": 1.75, "priorSOG": 1.540983606557377, "currentTOI": 14.827083333333333, "currentFiveTOI": 12.960416666666667, "ppShare": 0.005321326238231682, "rate": 1.451388661991768, "fifty": 1.4596679927453795, "inputs": { "Player": "Mathieu Olivier", "Player_ID": "8479671", "Team": "CBJ", "Opponent": "VGK", "Position": "R", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.4344386288205313, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.437911612451471, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 8, "Prior_GP": 61, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 6.9442211863044525, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.796299792335284, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 12.979914617486338, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 12.960416666666667, "Current_PP_Share": 0.005321326238231682, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.006497068011517183, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 13.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2443.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 4, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.052367424242425, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.022993330399991505, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.02156396910157655, "Other_State_SOG": 0.08401639344262296, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9217353117054976, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.540983606557377, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:45.648570+00:00", "priorGP": 61, "currentTotalSOG": 14.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.027083333333333334, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.75 SOG/game in 8 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 8 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 2.001, "currentIXG": 0.250125, "priorTOI": 14.228415300546446, "priorPPTOI": 0.02814207650273224, "deploymentChange": 0.5986680327868861, "ppTOIChange": -0.0010587431693989055, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020692", "date": "20260108", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 13.666666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024021045", "date": "20250313", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 16.9 }, { "gameId": "2024020820", "date": "20250130", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 13.9 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 3, "h2hSOG": 1.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "VGK", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 275.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 25.0, "mostAllowedRank": 27, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.585792714368043, "pkSogAllowed60": 47.03517587939699, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 38.72727272727273, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 59.0, "C": 80.0, "R": 61.0, "L": 75.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.2727272727272725, "L": 6.818181818181818, "R": 5.545454545454546, "D": 5.363636363636363 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 26.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 25.75, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 25.0, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.545454545454546, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8479394", "team": "VGK", "name": "Carter Hart", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.8876404494382022, "gaa": 2.8716148845371516, "gsax": -1.5090000000000003, "goalsAllowed": 20.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 18.491, "shotsAgainst": 178.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.017200797231895, "factor": 1.017200797231895, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T22:33:02.238Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.14997994589869007, "goalHistoryGoals": 35.0, "goalHistoryShots": 219.0, "goalExpected": 0.26603585641553357, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.2706118852381507, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.2335883537661249, "goalProbability": 0.2370874634299871, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.34991096638621877, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 8, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.7738095238095237, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 6.9442211863044525, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 12.960416666666667, "Current_PP_Share": 0.005321326238231682, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.052367424242425, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.02156396910157655, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.25, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9589471960166247, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9956874166464801, "Position_Factor": 1.016031746031746, "Input_GP": 8, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 13.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2443.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.796299792335284, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 13.025409836065574, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.006497068011517183, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0158730158730158, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.382352941176471, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0158730158730158, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9956874166464801, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 6.544264679149245, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 0.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020692", "date": "20260108", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 13.666666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024021045", "date": "20250313", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 16.9 }, { "gameId": "2024020820", "date": "20250130", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 13.9 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "NHL.com October 20 game-specific projected lineup", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 146, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479394", "goalieName": "Carter Hart", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8479671", "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 2, "recordedAttempts": 4, "log": [ { "gameId": "2022020510", "date": "20221220", "season": 2022, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 3 }, { "gameId": "2022020214", "date": "20221110", "season": 2022, "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 1 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479394", "goalieName": "Carter Hart", "opponent": "CBJ", "games": 5, "availableGames": 11, "shotsAgainst": 128.0, "goalsAgainst": 11.0, "savePct": 0.9140625, "gaa": 2.6073215696602583, "gsax": 0.11300000000000043, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020692", "date": "20260108", "goalieTeam": "VGK", "opponent": "CBJ", "shotsAgainst": 1.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 504.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 0.415 }, { "gameId": "2025020502", "date": "20251213", "goalieTeam": "VGK", "opponent": "CBJ", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.064 }, { "gameId": "2023020011", "date": "20231012", "goalieTeam": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "shotsAgainst": 33.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.608 }, { "gameId": "2022021287", "date": "20230411", "goalieTeam": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "shotsAgainst": 31.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3884.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.732 }, { "gameId": "2022020510", "date": "20221220", "goalieTeam": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "shotsAgainst": 33.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.294 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.7738095238095237, "adjustedSOG": 1.7738095238095237, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.7738095238095237, "adjustedSOG": 1.7738095238095237, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.14997994589869007, "goalHistoryGoals": 35.0, "goalHistoryShots": 219.0, "goalExpected": 0.26603585641553357, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.26603585641553357, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.2335883537661249, "goalProbability": 0.2335883537661249, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12843602741682136, "modelSOG": 1.7738095238095237, "historyGames": 151, "seasonGames": { "2024": 82, "2025": 61, "2026": 8 }, "historyGoals": 35.0, "historyShots": 219.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.1598173515981735, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.14997994589869007, "goalieFactor": 1.017200797231895, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 54.92419194471818, "btb": { "id": "8479671", "name": "Mathieu Olivier", "score": 54.92419194471818, "components": { "Goal model": 79.30232558139535, "SOG model": 68.13953488372093, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 74.53488372093024, "Goalie": 18.38235294117647, "Team H2H": 42.37798754770034, "Goalie H2H": 50.08328285887341 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 3, "goalieH2HShots": 2, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 146 } }, { "id": "8483516", "name": "Jimmy Snuggerud", "team": "STL", "opponent": "CAR", "position": "R", "currentGP": 9, "currentSOG": 2.4444444444444446, "priorSOG": 2.414285714285714, "currentTOI": 17.86111111111111, "currentFiveTOI": 14.440740740740742, "ppShare": 0.556060606060606, "rate": 2.2146442703766076, "fifty": 2.1658787385283036, "inputs": { "Player": "Jimmy Snuggerud", "Player_ID": "8483516", "Team": "STL", "Opponent": "CAR", "Position": "R", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 2.469206644355032, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 2.3351692402181063, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 9, "Prior_GP": 70, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 8.30982303154655, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 7.740746429119951, "Current_PP_SOG60": 4.9046321525885554, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 12.914447222524187, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 14.294161375661375, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 14.440740740740742, "Current_PP_Share": 0.556060606060606, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.5309772761508692, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1468.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2640.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 5, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.016414141414142, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 2.7516817764638546, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 2.789430287725742, "Other_State_SOG": 0.15079365079365079, "Environment_Proxy": 0.85, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 2.414285714285714, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/st-louis-blues/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:45.667886+00:00", "priorGP": 70, "currentTotalSOG": 22.0, "currentPPTOI": 2.7185185185185183, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.44 SOG/game in 9 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 9 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 3.124, "currentIXG": 0.34711111111111115, "priorTOI": 16.695714285714285, "priorPPTOI": 2.190238095238095, "deploymentChange": 1.1653968253968259, "ppTOIChange": 0.5282804232804232, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021033", "date": "20260312", "team": "STL", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 2.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 20.05 }, { "gameId": "2025020730", "date": "20260113", "team": "STL", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "home", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 16.3 } ], "h2hGames": 2, "h2hAvailableGames": 2, "h2hSOG": 4.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "CAR", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 246.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 22.363636363636363, "mostAllowedRank": 31, "fiveSogAllowed60": 21.75191064079953, "pkSogAllowed60": 32.87187039764359, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 33.09090909090909, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 77.0, "R": 66.0, "D": 59.0, "L": 44.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.0, "L": 4.0, "R": 6.0, "D": 5.363636363636363 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 23.0, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 7, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 22.428571428571427, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 22.363636363636363, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.0, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8481611", "team": "CAR", "name": "Pyotr Kochetkov", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 6, "savePct": 0.8991596638655462, "gaa": 1.9842910293509715, "gsax": 2.2720000000000002, "goalsAllowed": 12.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 14.272, "shotsAgainst": 119.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9828959307519136, "factor": 0.9828959307519136, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T22:32:34.088Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.1323876360708892, "goalHistoryGoals": 27.0, "goalHistoryShots": 201.0, "goalExpected": 0.33576904253520057, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.33002602558031485, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.2852118275821881, "goalProbability": 0.28109497673196604, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.41168508502220647, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 9, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 2.536256802375468, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 8.30982303154655, "Current_PP_SOG60": 4.9046321525885554, "Current_5v5_Min": 14.440740740740742, "Current_PP_Share": 0.556060606060606, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.016414141414142, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 2.789430287725742, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.2222222222222222, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9235603264096603, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.85, "Position_Factor": 1.0468273008257014, "Input_GP": 9, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1468.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2640.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 7.740746429119951, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 12.914447222524187, "Prior_5v5_Min": 13.952142857142857, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.5309772761508692, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0601092896174862, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.382352941176471, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0601092896174862, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.85, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 8.30982303154655, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 4.9046321525885554, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 4.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021033", "date": "20260312", "team": "STL", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 2.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 20.05 }, { "gameId": "2025020730", "date": "20260113", "team": "STL", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "home", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 16.3 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 194, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 50, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481611", "goalieName": "Pyotr Kochetkov", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8483516", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481611", "goalieName": "Pyotr Kochetkov", "opponent": "STL", "games": 3, "availableGames": 3, "shotsAgainst": 60.0, "goalsAgainst": 6.0, "savePct": 0.9, "gaa": 2.610587382160986, "gsax": -0.46099999999999985, "log": [ { "gameId": "2024020284", "date": "20241117", "goalieTeam": "CAR", "opponent": "STL", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3598.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.005 }, { "gameId": "2024020084", "date": "20241019", "goalieTeam": "CAR", "opponent": "STL", "shotsAgainst": 19.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3476.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.804 }, { "gameId": "2022020369", "date": "20221201", "goalieTeam": "CAR", "opponent": "STL", "shotsAgainst": 11.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 1200.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 0.73 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 2.536256802375468, "adjustedSOG": 2.536256802375468, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 2.536256802375468, "adjustedSOG": 2.536256802375468, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. 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Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.999, "currentIXG": 0.0999, "priorTOI": 14.778174603174602, "priorPPTOI": 0.01865079365079365, "deploymentChange": 4.010158730158732, "ppTOIChange": -0.011984126984126984, "h2hLog": [], "h2hGames": 0, "h2hAvailableGames": 0, "h2hSOG": null, "opponentDefense": { "team": "NSH", "games": 8, "sogAllowedTotal": 233.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 29.125, "mostAllowedRank": 8, "fiveSogAllowed60": 26.902173913043477, "pkSogAllowed60": 37.776914108045084, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 45.125, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 82.0, "L": 44.0, "D": 67.0, "R": 40.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.25, "L": 5.5, "R": 5.0, "D": 8.375 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 27.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 3, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 30.0, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 29.125, "oppPosSogAllowed": 8.375, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8477424", "team": "NSH", "name": "Juuse Saros", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.9061032863849765, "gaa": 2.8192176670973805, "gsax": 1.6679999999999993, "goalsAllowed": 20.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 21.668, "shotsAgainst": 213.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9906396066739361, "factor": 0.9906396066739361, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T15:56:16.281Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.07127493972047451, "goalHistoryGoals": 5.0, "goalHistoryShots": 51.0, "goalExpected": 0.11356537140663685, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.1125023548620502, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.10735415901043618, "goalProbability": 0.10640475718748753, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.09494018229486562, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.5933422301304865, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.7593856655290105, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 15.626666666666669, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0013605442176870747, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.130208333333334, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.006979875283446712, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0235094259979116, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9053307495740243, "Position_Factor": 1.007338478796179, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 4.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2940.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.1867807612865153, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 13.4484126984127, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.0036816684626025022, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0622281534203242, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.34640522875817, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0622281534203242, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9053307495740243, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.7593856655290105, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 48, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477424", "goalieName": "Juuse Saros", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8483398", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477424", "goalieName": "Juuse Saros", "opponent": "PIT", "games": 5, "availableGames": 13, "shotsAgainst": 131.0, "goalsAgainst": 15.0, "savePct": 0.8854961832061069, "gaa": 3.034219250435467, "gsax": -2.5649999999999995, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020296", "date": "20251116", "goalieTeam": "NSH", "opponent": "PIT", "shotsAgainst": 21.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3562.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.064 }, { "gameId": "2025020281", "date": "20251114", "goalieTeam": "NSH", "opponent": "PIT", "shotsAgainst": 17.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3637.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.622 }, { "gameId": "2024020830", "date": "20250201", "goalieTeam": "NSH", "opponent": "PIT", "shotsAgainst": 35.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3527.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.258 }, { "gameId": "2024020515", "date": "20241219", "goalieTeam": "NSH", "opponent": "PIT", "shotsAgainst": 20.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3657.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.863 }, { "gameId": "2023021289", "date": "20240415", "goalieTeam": "NSH", "opponent": "PIT", "shotsAgainst": 38.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3414.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.628 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.5933422301304865, "adjustedSOG": 1.5933422301304865, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.5933422301304865, "adjustedSOG": 1.5933422301304865, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.07127493972047451, "goalHistoryGoals": 5.0, "goalHistoryShots": 51.0, "goalExpected": 0.11356537140663685, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.1125023548620502, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.10735415901043618, "goalProbability": 0.10640475718748753, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.09494018229486562 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05762515897791652, "modelSOG": 1.5933422301304865, "historyGames": 55, "seasonGames": { "2024": 3, "2025": 42, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 5.0, "historyShots": 51.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.09803921568627451, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.07127493972047451, "goalieFactor": 0.9906396066739361, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 49.377222982216146, "btb": { "id": "8483398", "name": "Declan Carlile", "score": 49.377222982216146, "components": { "Goal model": 40.69767441860465, "SOG model": 59.76744186046512, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 25.58139534883721, "Goalie": 81.91176470588235, "Team H2H": 50.0, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Team H2H unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 0, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 207 } }, { "id": "8477429", "name": "Andrew Copp", "team": "DET", "opponent": "CGY", "position": "C", "currentGP": 9, "currentSOG": 1.6666666666666667, "priorSOG": 1.4556962025316456, "currentTOI": 19.049999999999997, "currentFiveTOI": 13.661111111111111, "ppShare": 0.3673015873015873, "rate": 1.6529205743407445, "fifty": 1.7403982326282006, "inputs": { "Player": "Andrew Copp", "Player_ID": "8477429", "Team": "DET", "Opponent": "CGY", "Position": "C", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.5082792175086657, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.5963806059905392, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 9, "Prior_GP": 79, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 6.344042293615291, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.209673269873939, "Current_PP_SOG60": 3.111495246326707, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 6.41399416909621, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 13.498980309423345, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 13.661111111111111, "Current_PP_Share": 0.3673015873015873, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.24584176773297428, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1157.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3150.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 5, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.430208333333333, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 1.796658502895646, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 1.99452414021164, "Other_State_SOG": 0.1592123769338959, "Environment_Proxy": 1.096640755468006, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.4556962025316456, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:45.727236+00:00", "priorGP": 79, "currentTotalSOG": 15.0, "currentPPTOI": 2.142592592592593, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.67 SOG/game in 9 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 9 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 2.013, "currentIXG": 0.22366666666666665, "priorTOI": 16.57320675105485, "priorPPTOI": 1.3025316455696203, "deploymentChange": 2.476793248945146, "ppTOIChange": 0.8400609470229725, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020477", "date": "20251210", "team": "DET", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 16.733333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020834", "date": "20250201", "team": "DET", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 16.066666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020350", "date": "20241127", "team": "DET", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 13.533333333333333 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 3, "h2hSOG": 1.3333333333333333, "opponentDefense": { "team": "CGY", "games": 8, "sogAllowedTotal": 237.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 29.625, "mostAllowedRank": 6, "fiveSogAllowed60": 29.8086265894977, "pkSogAllowed60": 38.789888106092, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.5, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 59.0, "C": 89.0, "R": 48.0, "L": 41.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 11.125, "L": 5.125, "R": 6.0, "D": 7.375 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 30.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.5, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 29.625, "oppPosSogAllowed": 11.125, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8482445", "team": "CGY", "name": "Devin Cooley", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 3, "savePct": 0.8681318681318682, "gaa": 4.010025062656641, "gsax": -2.561, "goalsAllowed": 12.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 9.439, "shotsAgainst": 91.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0263021756310153, "factor": 1.0263021756310153, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T16:24:22.507Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.11025027067157393, "goalHistoryGoals": 20.0, "goalHistoryShots": 198.0, "goalExpected": 0.19072924725611706, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.19574584141541881, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.17364370390034928, "goalProbability": 0.17777881730389775, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.4135113403548468, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 9, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.729966249464213, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 6.344042293615291, "Current_PP_SOG60": 3.111495246326707, "Current_5v5_Min": 13.661111111111111, "Current_PP_Share": 0.3673015873015873, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.430208333333333, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.99452414021164, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.1111111111111111, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0746225056341803, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9180727421999328, "Position_Factor": 1.0092969209610747, "Input_GP": 9, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1157.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3150.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.209673269873939, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 6.41399416909621, "Prior_5v5_Min": 13.120675105485232, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.24584176773297428, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0794475223145583, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.437908496732026, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0794475223145583, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9180727421999328, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 6.344042293615291, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 3.111495246326707, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 1.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020477", "date": "20251210", "team": "DET", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 16.733333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020834", "date": "20250201", "team": "DET", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 16.066666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020350", "date": "20241127", "team": "DET", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 13.533333333333333 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Reviewed October22 projected lineup and coach reports", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 141, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 25, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482445", "goalieName": "Devin Cooley", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8477429", "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 1, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020477", "date": "20251210", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482445", "goalieName": "Devin Cooley", "opponent": "DET", "games": 1, "availableGames": 1, "shotsAgainst": 29.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "savePct": 0.8620689655172413, "gaa": 4.1248925809223715, "gsax": -1.0219999999999998, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020477", "date": "20251210", "goalieTeam": "CGY", "opponent": "DET", "shotsAgainst": 29.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3491.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.978 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.729966249464213, "adjustedSOG": 1.729966249464213, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.7652716831267479, "adjustedSOG": 1.729966249464213, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.11025027067157393, "goalHistoryGoals": 20.0, "goalHistoryShots": 198.0, "goalExpected": 0.19462168087358883, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.19462168087358883, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.17685398896328475, "goalProbability": 0.17685398896328475, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12854580660129028, "modelSOG": 1.729966249464213, "historyGames": 144, "seasonGames": { "2024": 56, "2025": 79, "2026": 9 }, "historyGoals": 20.0, "historyShots": 198.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.10101010101010101, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.11025027067157393, "goalieFactor": 1.0263021756310153, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 58.51781200950928, "btb": { "id": "8477429", "name": "Andrew Copp", "score": 58.51781200950928, "components": { "Goal model": 64.4186046511628, "SOG model": 66.51162790697674, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 69.53488372093024, "Goalie": 71.32352941176471, "Team H2H": 54.60935930909822, "Goalie H2H": 50.31264474293654 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 3, "goalieH2HShots": 1, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 106 } }, { "id": "8475413", "name": "Justin Dowling", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "OTT", "position": "C", "currentGP": 3, "currentSOG": 0.0, "priorSOG": 0.5, "currentTOI": 7.683333333333334, "currentFiveTOI": 7.683333333333334, "ppShare": 0.0, "rate": 0.44950809088813176, "fifty": 0.2871324411754073, "inputs": { "Player": "Justin Dowling", "Player_ID": "8475413", "Team": "NYR", "Opponent": "OTT", "Position": "C", "Current_GP": 3, "Prior_GP": 2, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 0.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.171494785631518, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 7.535833333333333, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 7.683333333333334, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0, "Prior_PP_Share": 0, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1023.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 2, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Measured game-matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Historical skater-team PP minute approximation, existing hybrid method", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.145909090909091, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.0, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.0, "Other_State_SOG": 0.0, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9343896732646498, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 0.5, "Status": "Historical input object restored from saved prior summaries", "Availability_Note": "Conditional on dressing", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 0.4475709927256184, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 0.2808175046558913 }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-york-rangers/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:45.749889+00:00", "priorGP": 2, "currentTotalSOG": 0.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.0, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.00 SOG/game in 3 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 3 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.057, "currentIXG": 0.019, "priorTOI": 7.191666666666666, "priorPPTOI": 0, "deploymentChange": 0.49166666666666714, "ppTOIChange": 0.0, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2024020737", "date": "20250119", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 9.833333333333334 } ], "h2hGames": 1, "h2hAvailableGames": 1, "h2hSOG": 0.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "OTT", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 255.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 25.5, "mostAllowedRank": 25, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.477120373069077, "pkSogAllowed60": 46.82395644283122, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 38.7, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 67.0, "C": 98.0, "R": 48.0, "L": 42.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.8, "L": 4.2, "R": 4.8, "D": 6.7 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 24.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 22.6, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 25.5, "oppPosSogAllowed": 9.8, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8477992", "team": "OTT", "name": "Jonas Johansson", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 0, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "goalsAllowed": null, "xGoalsAgainst": null, "shotsAgainst": null, "scenarioFactor": 1, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; no matching goalie statistics in this snapshot, so the goalie factor remains neutral.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T15:15:50.280Z", "idResolution": "Exact goalie name mapped to one unique MoneyPuck player ID" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.1100144409859999, "goalHistoryGoals": 2.0, "goalHistoryShots": 35.0, "goalExpected": 0.0, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.0, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.0, "goalProbability": 0.0, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 3, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 0.0, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 7.683333333333334, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.145909090909091, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.0, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9604171757553249, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9920036605974645, "Position_Factor": 1.0136284014991037, "Input_GP": 3, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1023.0, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0191828254847646, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.437908496732026, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0191828254847646, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9920036605974645, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 0, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 0.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2024020737", "date": "20250119", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 9.833333333333334 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477992", "goalieName": "Jonas Johansson", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8475413", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477992", "goalieName": "Jonas Johansson", "opponent": "NYR", "games": 4, "availableGames": 4, "shotsAgainst": 43.0, "goalsAgainst": 6.0, "savePct": 0.8604651162790697, "gaa": 2.615328732292045, "gsax": -1.567, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020391", "date": "20251129", "goalieTeam": "TBL", "opponent": "NYR", "shotsAgainst": 13.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.688 }, { "gameId": "2025020265", "date": "20251112", "goalieTeam": "TBL", "opponent": "NYR", "shotsAgainst": 7.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 993.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 0.748 }, { "gameId": "2024021310", "date": "20250417", "goalieTeam": "TBL", "opponent": "NYR", "shotsAgainst": 22.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3573.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.983 }, { "gameId": "2021020399", "date": "20211208", "goalieTeam": "COL", "opponent": "NYR", "shotsAgainst": 1.0, "goalsAgainst": 0.0, "seconds": 93.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 0.014 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.0, "adjustedSOG": 0.0, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.0, "adjustedSOG": 0.0, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.1100144409859999, "goalHistoryGoals": 2.0, "goalHistoryShots": 35.0, "goalExpected": 0.0, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.0, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.0, "goalProbability": 0.0, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12851949533109985, "modelSOG": 0.0, "historyGames": 57, "seasonGames": { "2024": 52, "2025": 2, "2026": 3 }, "historyGoals": 2.0, "historyShots": 35.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.05714285714285714, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.1100144409859999, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": 35.906976744186046, "btb": { "id": "8475413", "name": "Justin Dowling", "score": 35.906976744186046, "components": { "Goal model": 0.6976744186046512, "SOG model": 0.6976744186046512, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 32.325581395348834, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 50.0, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral", "Team H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 1, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 400 } }, { "id": "8475786", "name": "Zach Hyman", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "TOR", "position": "L", "currentGP": 3, "currentSOG": 2.3333333333333335, "priorSOG": 2.7413793103448274, "currentTOI": 20.066666666666666, "currentFiveTOI": 16.11111111111111, "ppShare": 0.7985074626865671, "rate": 3.1401396115679745, "fifty": 2.804515169819904, "inputs": { "Player": "Zach Hyman", "Player_ID": "8475786", "Team": "EDM", "Opponent": "TOR", "Position": "L", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 2.9658294447160714, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 3.055135500164903, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 3, "Prior_GP": 58, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.7241379310344827, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 7.251701949081414, "Current_PP_SOG60": 11.214953271028037, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 10.775754552257421, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 15.899760536398468, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 16.11111111111111, "Current_PP_Share": 0.7985074626865671, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.8485806653012015, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 642.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 804.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 1, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.365824915824916, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 4.365256450217142, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 4.284651238755717, "Other_State_SOG": 0.2839080459770115, "Environment_Proxy": 1.1073475417853031, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 2.7413793103448274, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:45.771384+00:00", "priorGP": 58, "currentTotalSOG": 7.0, "currentPPTOI": 3.5666666666666664, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.33 SOG/game in 3 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 3 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.078, "currentIXG": 0.35933333333333334, "priorTOI": 19.98390804597701, "priorPPTOI": 3.4560344827586205, "deploymentChange": 0.08275862068965623, "ppTOIChange": 0.11063218390804597, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020891", "date": "20260203", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "TOR", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 18.116666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020499", "date": "20251213", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "TOR", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 18.066666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020833", "date": "20250201", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "TOR", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 19.883333333333333 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 2.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "TOR", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 332.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 30.181818181818183, "mostAllowedRank": 5, "fiveSogAllowed60": 28.565965583173995, "pkSogAllowed60": 43.340857787810386, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.0, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 130.0, "D": 98.0, "R": 49.0, "L": 55.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 11.818181818181818, "L": 5.0, "R": 4.454545454545454, "D": 8.909090909090908 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 30.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 35.25, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 30.181818181818183, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.0, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8476932", "team": "TOR", "name": "Anthony Stolarz", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 4, "savePct": 0.8974358974358975, "gaa": 2.9929333518082304, "gsax": 0.46399999999999864, "goalsAllowed": 12.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 12.463999999999999, "shotsAgainst": 117.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9986972168772468, "factor": 0.9986972168772468, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T20:54:34.227Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.15092473700207487, "goalHistoryGoals": 59.0, "goalHistoryShots": 376.0, "goalExpected": 0.3653477842230613, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.36487181529584023, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.3060447377868808, "goalProbability": 0.30571435802617286, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.033037976070793285, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 3, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 2.4207283145243355, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.7241379310344827, "Current_PP_SOG60": 11.214953271028037, "Current_5v5_Min": 16.11111111111111, "Current_PP_Share": 0.7985074626865671, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.365824915824916, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 4.284651238755717, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.6666666666666666, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0610638532936316, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9495764141752431, "Position_Factor": 0.9857662226884111, "Input_GP": 3, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 642.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 804.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 7.251701949081414, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 10.775754552257421, "Prior_5v5_Min": 15.4066091954023, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.8485806653012015, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9935749638783855, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.062091503267974, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9935749638783855, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9495764141752431, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 3.7241379310344827, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 11.214953271028037, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020891", "date": "20260203", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "TOR", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 18.116666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020499", "date": "20251213", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "TOR", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 18.066666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020833", "date": "20250201", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "TOR", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 19.883333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020274", "date": "20241116", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "TOR", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 21.866666666666667 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Reviewed October22 projected lineup and coach reports", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 166, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. 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Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.15092473700207487, "goalHistoryGoals": 59.0, "goalHistoryShots": 376.0, "goalExpected": 0.3653477842230613, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.3653477842230613, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.3060447377868808, "goalProbability": 0.3060447377868808, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1284017481298764, "modelSOG": 2.4207283145243355, "historyGames": 134, "seasonGames": { "2024": 73, "2025": 58, "2026": 3 }, "historyGoals": 59.0, "historyShots": 376.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.15691489361702127, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.15092473700207487, "goalieFactor": 0.9986972168772468, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 64.58944573534974, "btb": { "id": "8475786", "name": "Zach Hyman", "score": 64.58944573534974, "components": { "Goal model": 92.09302325581395, "SOG model": 84.18604651162791, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 79.30232558139535, "Goalie": 60.73529411764706, "Team H2H": 54.66243938828795, "Goalie H2H": 47.58410880458125 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": 5, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 39 } }, { "id": "8482470", "name": "Ilya Solovyov", "position": "D", "priorGP": 30, "priorSOG": 0.7666666666666667, "priorTOI": 12.746666666666666, "priorPPTOI": 0.01, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 14.716666666666667, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.130208333333334, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.0, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0235094259979116, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9053307495740243, "Position_Factor": 1.007338478796179, "Input_GP": 1, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 60.0, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0622281534203242, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.34640522875817, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0622281534203242, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9053307495740243, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 0, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "inputs": null, "team": "PIT", "isHome": true, "opponent": "NSH", "opponentDefense": { "team": "NSH", "games": 8, "sogAllowedTotal": 233.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 29.125, "mostAllowedRank": 8, "fiveSogAllowed60": 26.902173913043477, "pkSogAllowed60": 37.776914108045084, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 45.125, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 82.0, "L": 44.0, "D": 67.0, "R": 40.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.25, "L": 5.5, "R": 5.0, "D": 8.375 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 27.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 3, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 30.0, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8477424", "team": "NSH", "name": "Juuse Saros", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.9061032863849765, "gaa": 2.8192176670973805, "gsax": 1.6679999999999993, "goalsAllowed": 20.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 21.668, "shotsAgainst": 213.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9906396066739361, "factor": 0.9906396066739361, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T15:56:16.281Z" }, "oppSogAllowed": 29.125, "oppPosSogAllowed": 8.375, "currentGP": 1, "currentTotalSOG": 0.0, "currentSOG": 0.0, "currentTOI": 15.866666666666667, "currentFiveTOI": 14.716666666666667, "currentPPTOI": 0.0, "currentIXG": 0.042, "currentIXGTotal": 0.042, "currentIXGGP": 1, "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "volumeNote": "Observed 0.00 SOG/game in 1 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 1 games. 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Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477424", "goalieName": "Juuse Saros", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8482470", "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 2, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020752", "date": "20260116", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477424", "goalieName": "Juuse Saros", "opponent": "PIT", "games": 5, "availableGames": 13, "shotsAgainst": 131.0, "goalsAgainst": 15.0, "savePct": 0.8854961832061069, "gaa": 3.034219250435467, "gsax": -2.5649999999999995, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020296", "date": "20251116", "goalieTeam": "NSH", "opponent": "PIT", "shotsAgainst": 21.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3562.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.064 }, { "gameId": "2025020281", "date": "20251114", "goalieTeam": "NSH", "opponent": "PIT", "shotsAgainst": 17.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3637.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.622 }, { "gameId": "2024020830", "date": "20250201", "goalieTeam": "NSH", "opponent": "PIT", "shotsAgainst": 35.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3527.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.258 }, { "gameId": "2024020515", "date": "20241219", "goalieTeam": "NSH", "opponent": "PIT", "shotsAgainst": 20.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3657.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.863 }, { "gameId": "2023021289", "date": "20240415", "goalieTeam": "NSH", "opponent": "PIT", "shotsAgainst": 38.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3414.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.628 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.0, "adjustedSOG": 0.0, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.0, "adjustedSOG": 0.0, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. 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Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.022, "currentIXG": 0.007333333333333333, "priorTOI": 9.097619047619046, "priorPPTOI": 0.22261904761904763, "deploymentChange": -0.5809523809523789, "ppTOIChange": -0.22261904761904763, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2024020820", "date": "20250130", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 13.933333333333334 } ], "h2hGames": 1, "h2hAvailableGames": 1, "h2hSOG": 0.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "VGK", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 275.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 25.0, "mostAllowedRank": 27, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.585792714368043, "pkSogAllowed60": 47.03517587939699, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 38.72727272727273, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 59.0, "C": 80.0, "R": 61.0, "L": 75.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.2727272727272725, "L": 6.818181818181818, "R": 5.545454545454546, "D": 5.363636363636363 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 26.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 25.75, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 25.0, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.2727272727272725, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8479394", "team": "VGK", "name": "Carter Hart", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.8876404494382022, "gaa": 2.8716148845371516, "gsax": -1.5090000000000003, "goalsAllowed": 20.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 18.491, "shotsAgainst": 178.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.017200797231895, "factor": 1.017200797231895, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T22:33:02.238Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.11424136151454238, "goalHistoryGoals": 2.0, "goalHistoryShots": 30.0, "goalExpected": 0.033504369753418535, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.034080671623929526, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.03294931455086854, "goalProbability": 0.03350646711032042, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.05571525594518789, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 3, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 0.29327705227982237, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.3653088042049935, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 8.455555555555556, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.052367424242425, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.0, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9589471960166247, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9956874166464801, "Position_Factor": 0.9789803456008442, "Input_GP": 3, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1161.0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.8798311568394671, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.437908496732026, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.8798311568394671, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9956874166464801, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 0, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0 }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 0.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2024020820", "date": "20250130", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 13.933333333333334 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "NHL.com October 20 game-specific projected lineup", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 13, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479394", "goalieName": "Carter Hart", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8483432", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479394", "goalieName": "Carter Hart", "opponent": "CBJ", "games": 5, "availableGames": 11, "shotsAgainst": 128.0, "goalsAgainst": 11.0, "savePct": 0.9140625, "gaa": 2.6073215696602583, "gsax": 0.11300000000000043, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020692", "date": "20260108", "goalieTeam": "VGK", "opponent": "CBJ", "shotsAgainst": 1.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 504.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 0.415 }, { "gameId": "2025020502", "date": "20251213", "goalieTeam": "VGK", "opponent": "CBJ", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.064 }, { "gameId": "2023020011", "date": "20231012", "goalieTeam": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "shotsAgainst": 33.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.608 }, { "gameId": "2022021287", "date": "20230411", "goalieTeam": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "shotsAgainst": 31.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3884.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.732 }, { "gameId": "2022020510", "date": "20221220", "goalieTeam": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "shotsAgainst": 33.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.294 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.29327705227982237, "adjustedSOG": 0.29327705227982237, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.29327705227982237, "adjustedSOG": 0.29327705227982237, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.11424136151454238, "goalHistoryGoals": 2.0, "goalHistoryShots": 30.0, "goalExpected": 0.033504369753418535, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.033504369753418535, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.03294931455086854, "goalProbability": 0.03294931455086854, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1285137699689051, "modelSOG": 0.29327705227982237, "historyGames": 32, "seasonGames": { "2024": 15, "2025": 14, "2026": 3 }, "historyGoals": 2.0, "historyShots": 30.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.06666666666666667, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.11424136151454238, "goalieFactor": 1.017200797231895, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": 33.976895255808756, "btb": { "id": "8483432", "name": "Luca Del Bel Belluz", "score": 33.976895255808756, "components": { "Goal model": 8.372093023255815, "SOG model": 2.558139534883721, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 30.232558139534884, "Goalie": 18.38235294117647, "Team H2H": 48.753857108948495, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 1, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 417 } }, { "id": "8482094", "name": "Daemon Hunt", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "SEA", "position": "D", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 0.4, "priorSOG": 0.59375, "currentTOI": 13.938333333333333, "currentFiveTOI": 12.288333333333334, "ppShare": 0.0008237232289950577, "rate": 0.6840189715453326, "fifty": 0.6266316750939758, "inputs": { "Player": "Daemon Hunt", "Player_ID": "8482094", "Team": "MIN", "Opponent": "SEA", "Position": "D", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 0.6229540965485221, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 0.5755479678970978, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 10, "Prior_GP": 32, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 1.9530720195307203, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 2.87283481199831, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 11.930427083333333, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 12.288333333333334, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0008237232289950577, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.030502426903963934, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2428.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 5, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 3.9491666666666667, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.03841486449742569, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.003253020318506315, "Other_State_SOG": 0.05625, "Environment_Proxy": 1.1489692159321772, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 0.59375, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/minnesota-wild/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:45.822061+00:00", "priorGP": 32, "currentTotalSOG": 4.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.003333333333333333, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.40 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.57, "currentIXG": 0.056999999999999995, "priorTOI": 12.428645833333333, "priorPPTOI": 0.1609375, "deploymentChange": 1.5096875, "ppTOIChange": -0.15760416666666668, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020693", "date": "20260108", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 11.583333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020465", "date": "20251208", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 9.15 } ], "h2hGames": 2, "h2hAvailableGames": 2, "h2hSOG": 0.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "SEA", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 311.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 31.1, "mostAllowedRank": 3, "fiveSogAllowed60": 29.01212141229316, "pkSogAllowed60": 57.63738641280831, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 48.5, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 101.0, "R": 65.0, "L": 58.0, "D": 87.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.1, "L": 5.8, "R": 6.5, "D": 8.7 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 31.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 3, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 28.666666666666668, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 31.1, "oppPosSogAllowed": 8.7, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8478916", "team": "SEA", "name": "Joey Daccord", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 5, "savePct": 0.881578947368421, "gaa": 3.8855909336211547, "gsax": -2.3970000000000002, "goalsAllowed": 18.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 15.603, "shotsAgainst": 152.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.024854248577667, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Likely starter per Daily Faceoff; no Model Goal adjustment until confirmed.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T20:31:39.541Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.04616486792540038, "goalHistoryGoals": 0.0, "goalHistoryShots": 25.0, "goalExpected": 0.01976380425245151, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.01976380425245151, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.019569780590831063, "goalProbability": 0.019569780590831063, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 0.42811352313167267, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 1.9530720195307203, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 12.288333333333334, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0008237232289950577, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 3.9491666666666667, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.003253020318506315, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0689197555315912, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0920680305430235, "Position_Factor": 1.0046361324392672, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2428.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 2.87283481199831, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 11.0953125, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.030502426903963934, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0921263345195729, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.34640522875817, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0921263345195729, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0920680305430235, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 1.9530720195307203, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020693", "date": "20260108", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 11.583333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020465", "date": "20251208", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 9.15 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 25, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478916", "goalieName": "Joey Daccord", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8482094", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478916", "goalieName": "Joey Daccord", "opponent": "MIN", "games": 5, "availableGames": 6, "shotsAgainst": 123.0, "goalsAgainst": 19.0, "savePct": 0.8455284552845528, "gaa": 4.3387250237868695, "gsax": -6.912000000000001, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021240", "date": "20260407", "goalieTeam": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 28.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3488.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.569 }, { "gameId": "2024020982", "date": "20250304", "goalieTeam": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 20.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3463.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.635 }, { "gameId": "2024020033", "date": "20241012", "goalieTeam": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 38.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3885.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.839 }, { "gameId": "2023021307", "date": "20240418", "goalieTeam": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.121 }, { "gameId": "2023020913", "date": "20240224", "goalieTeam": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 13.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 1329.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.924 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.42811352313167267, "adjustedSOG": 0.42811352313167267, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.43685053380782923, "adjustedSOG": 0.42811352313167267, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.04616486792540038, "goalHistoryGoals": 0.0, "goalHistoryShots": 25.0, "goalExpected": 0.02016714719637909, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.02016714719637909, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.01996515046165922, "goalProbability": 0.01996515046165922, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05770608490675048, "modelSOG": 0.42811352313167267, "historyGames": 43, "seasonGames": { "2024": 1, "2025": 32, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 0.0, "historyShots": 25.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.0, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.04616486792540038, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": 33.612271540469976, "btb": { "id": "8482094", "name": "Daemon Hunt", "score": 33.612271540469976, "components": { "Goal model": 3.0232558139534884, "SOG model": 5.116279069767442, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 11.395348837209303, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 44.081810269799824, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Likely", "h2hGames": 2, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 419 } }, { "id": "8484142", "name": "Denver Barkey", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "ANA", "position": "L", "currentGP": 9, "currentSOG": 0.6666666666666666, "priorSOG": 1, "currentTOI": 14.416666666666666, "currentFiveTOI": 11.303703703703704, "ppShare": 0.49356223175965663, "rate": 1.0346636767104613, "fifty": 0.8741839129183097, "inputs": { "Player": "Denver Barkey", "Player_ID": "8484142", "Team": "PHI", "Opponent": "ANA", "Position": "C", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.0406136028143869, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 0.6614985305523597, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 9, "Prior_GP": 43, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.3591087811271296, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.9534109816971714, "Current_PP_SOG60": 2.8458498023715415, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 8.227526663280853, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 11.40677863910422, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 11.303703703703704, "Current_PP_Share": 0.49356223175965663, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.3584638569998783, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1265.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2563.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 4, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.042592592592593, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 2.284459434704226, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 2.488833253854713, "Other_State_SOG": 0.03204134366925065, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9949214190083264, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/philadelphia-flyers/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:45.847430+00:00", "priorGP": 43, "currentTotalSOG": 6.0, "currentPPTOI": 2.3425925925925926, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.67 SOG/game in 9 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 9 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.8130000000000001, "currentIXG": 0.09033333333333333, "priorTOI": 13.407364341085271, "priorPPTOI": 1.526356589147287, "deploymentChange": 1.0093023255813947, "ppTOIChange": 0.8162360034453056, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021082", "date": "20260318", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 11.683333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020670", "date": "20260106", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 14.966666666666667 } ], "h2hGames": 2, "h2hAvailableGames": 2, "h2hSOG": 1.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "ANA", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 239.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 26.555555555555557, "mostAllowedRank": 18, "fiveSogAllowed60": 25.834281008587897, "pkSogAllowed60": 38.93928820655967, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 43.333333333333336, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 54.0, "C": 91.0, "R": 57.0, "L": 37.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.11111111111111, "L": 4.111111111111111, "R": 6.333333333333333, "D": 6.0 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 28.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.2, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 26.555555555555557, "oppPosSogAllowed": 4.111111111111111, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8480843", "team": "ANA", "name": "Lukas Dostal", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.8813559322033898, "gaa": 3.1634446397188047, "gsax": 2.846, "goalsAllowed": 21.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 23.846, "shotsAgainst": 177.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9815060369171769, "factor": 0.9815060369171769, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T16:38:16.530Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.11980456065800017, "goalHistoryGoals": 5.0, "goalHistoryShots": 49.0, "goalExpected": 0.0747139284700041, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.07333217183510717, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.07199107470741432, "goalProbability": 0.07070790590830442, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.12831687991099044, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 9, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 0.6236317554161068, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.3591087811271296, "Current_PP_SOG60": 2.8458498023715415, "Current_5v5_Min": 11.303703703703704, "Current_PP_Share": 0.49356223175965663, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.042592592592593, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 2.488833253854713, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.1111111111111111, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0050173142237073, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9117211340641708, "Position_Factor": 0.9802148035352244, "Input_GP": 9, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1265.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2563.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.9534109816971714, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 8.227526663280853, "Prior_5v5_Min": 11.647286821705427, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.3584638569998783, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9110121980224933, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.062091503267974, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9110121980224933, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9117211340641708, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 1.92102454642476, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021082", "date": "20260318", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 11.683333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020670", "date": "20260106", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 14.966666666666667 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff latest reported chart; October 21 final lineup pending", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 47, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 16, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480843", "goalieName": "Lukas Dostal", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8484142", "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 2, "recordedAttempts": 5, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021082", "date": "20260318", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 4 }, { "gameId": "2025020670", "date": "20260106", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480843", "goalieName": "Lukas Dostal", "opponent": "PHI", "games": 5, "availableGames": 5, "shotsAgainst": 155.0, "goalsAgainst": 18.0, "savePct": 0.8838709677419355, "gaa": 3.646595385481148, "gsax": -2.507999999999999, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021082", "date": "20260318", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 28.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3704.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.611 }, { "gameId": "2025020670", "date": "20260106", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 38.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3560.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.171 }, { "gameId": "2024020568", "date": "20241228", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3472.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.781 }, { "gameId": "2023020208", "date": "20231110", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 35.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3450.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.281 }, { "gameId": "2023020117", "date": "20231028", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3584.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.648 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.6236317554161068, "adjustedSOG": 0.6236317554161068, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.6236317554161068, "adjustedSOG": 0.6236317554161068, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.11980456065800017, "goalHistoryGoals": 5.0, "goalHistoryShots": 49.0, "goalExpected": 0.0747139284700041, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.0747139284700041, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.07199107470741432, "goalProbability": 0.07199107470741432, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12850879538042026, "modelSOG": 0.6236317554161068, "historyGames": 52, "seasonGames": { "2025": 43, "2026": 9 }, "historyGoals": 5.0, "historyShots": 49.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.10204081632653061, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.11980456065800017, "goalieFactor": 0.9815060369171769, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": 40.009121219491654, "btb": { "id": "8484142", "name": "Denver Barkey", "score": 40.009121219491654, "components": { "Goal model": 25.11627906976744, "SOG model": 10.232558139534884, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 24.186046511627907, "Goalie": 44.85294117647059, "Team H2H": 50.41340295909487, "Goalie H2H": 50.08328285887341 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 2, "goalieH2HShots": 2, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 349 } }, { "id": "8476878", "name": "Zemgus Girgensons", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "UTA", "position": "L", "currentGP": 9, "currentSOG": 1.3333333333333333, "priorSOG": 1.2027027027027026, "currentTOI": 14.116666666666667, "currentFiveTOI": 12.024074074074074, "ppShare": 0.00715258855585831, "rate": 1.0362634860797493, "fifty": 1.029158184333764, "inputs": { "Player": "Zemgus Girgensons", "Player_ID": "8476878", "Team": "TBL", "Opponent": "UTA", "Position": "C", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.0364354329237544, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.0007122837400262, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 9, "Prior_GP": 74, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.544432465732327, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.472200861961051, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 12.19516266266266, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 12.024074074074074, "Current_PP_Share": 0.00715258855585831, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.008047166087609034, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 21.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2936.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 5, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.626018518518518, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.03432950678318299, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.03308800711474417, "Other_State_SOG": 0.07087087087087088, "Environment_Proxy": 0.85, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.2027027027027026, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:45.872152+00:00", "priorGP": 74.0, "currentTotalSOG": 12.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.03888888888888889, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.33 SOG/game in 9 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 9 games. 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Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -5.940109562749242, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478872", "goalieName": "Karel Vejmelka", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8476878", "goals": 0, "sog": 7, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 4, "recordedAttempts": 9, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020825", "date": "20260126", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2025020194", "date": "20251102", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2022020196", "date": "20221108", "season": 2022, "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 4 }, { "gameId": "2021020021", "date": "20211016", "season": 2021, "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 3 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478872", "goalieName": "Karel Vejmelka", "opponent": "TBL", "games": 5, "availableGames": 6, "shotsAgainst": 128.0, "goalsAgainst": 18.0, "savePct": 0.859375, "gaa": 4.0538004379105415, "gsax": -5.162, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020825", "date": "20260126", "goalieTeam": "UTA", "opponent": "TBL", "shotsAgainst": 29.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.389 }, { "gameId": "2025020194", "date": "20251102", "goalieTeam": "UTA", "opponent": "TBL", "shotsAgainst": 25.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3527.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.366 }, { "gameId": "2024021145", "date": "20250327", "goalieTeam": "UTA", "opponent": "TBL", "shotsAgainst": 12.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 1754.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.834 }, { "gameId": "2024021111", "date": "20250322", "goalieTeam": "UTA", "opponent": "TBL", "shotsAgainst": 27.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.77 }, { "gameId": "2022020582", "date": "20221231", "goalieTeam": "ARI", "opponent": "TBL", "shotsAgainst": 35.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3504.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.479 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.143333333333333, "adjustedSOG": 1.143333333333333, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.1666666666666665, "adjustedSOG": 1.143333333333333, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. 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MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021082", "date": "20260318", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 20.0 }, { "gameId": "2025020670", "date": "20260106", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 17.55 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "ppAssignmentSourceDate": "2026-10-13T16:34:52.608Z", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 227, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 55, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479361", "goalieName": "Joseph Woll", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8484762", "goals": 0, "sog": 5, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 10, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021029", "date": "20260312", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 5, "attempts": 10 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479361", "goalieName": "Joseph Woll", "opponent": "ANA", "games": 3, "availableGames": 3, "shotsAgainst": 91.0, "goalsAgainst": 7.0, "savePct": 0.9230769230769231, "gaa": 2.6359832635983262, "gsax": 2.575, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021029", "date": "20260312", "goalieTeam": "TOR", "opponent": "ANA", "shotsAgainst": 40.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3567.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.449 }, { "gameId": "2024021176", "date": "20250330", "goalieTeam": "TOR", "opponent": "ANA", "shotsAgainst": 31.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3593.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.338 }, { "gameId": "2024020459", "date": "20241212", "goalieTeam": "TOR", "opponent": "ANA", "shotsAgainst": 20.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 2400.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.788 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 2.927470595863185, "adjustedSOG": 2.927470595863185, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 2.987214893737944, "adjustedSOG": 2.927470595863185, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.12647154429490493, "goalHistoryGoals": 28.0, "goalHistoryShots": 223.0, "goalExpected": 0.3777976807517781, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.3648012968104418, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.3146308499891336, "goalProbability": 0.3056653963279349, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.8965453661198719 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12850308807254293, "modelSOG": 2.927470595863185, "historyGames": 91, "seasonGames": { "2025": 82, "2026": 9 }, "historyGoals": 28.0, "historyShots": 223.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.12556053811659193, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.12647154429490493, "goalieFactor": 0.9655996195755495, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 62.36257092446237, "btb": { "id": "8484762", "name": "Beckett Sennecke", "score": 62.36257092446237, "components": { "Goal model": 93.02325581395348, "SOG model": 94.65116279069767, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 93.95348837209302, "Goalie": 28.970588235294116, "Team H2H": 46.496953872932984, "Goalie H2H": 47.58410880458125 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 2, "goalieH2HShots": 5, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 59 } }, { "id": "8477346", "name": "MacKenzie Weegar", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "TBL", "position": "D", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 1.7, "priorSOG": 1.9493670886075949, "currentTOI": 21.30166666666667, "currentFiveTOI": 18.185, "ppShare": 0.024092515258592996, "rate": 1.6106454151900096, "fifty": 1.532295656148516, "inputs": { "Player": "MacKenzie Weegar", "Player_ID": "8477346", "Team": "UTA", "Opponent": "TBL", "Position": "D", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.9560212328575557, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.838936103792042, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 10, "Prior_GP": 79, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.949133901567226, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.13600509355877, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 10.063737001006373, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 18.09741139240506, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 18.185, "Current_PP_Share": 0.024092515258592996, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.39617793955445535, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 75.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3113.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 6, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.821018518518519, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.6542996785197186, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.11615046221936683, "Other_State_SOG": 0.11113924050632912, "Environment_Proxy": 0.8844868901771036, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.9493670886075949, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/utah-mammoth/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:45.917395+00:00", "priorGP": 79, "currentTotalSOG": 17.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.125, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.70 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.337, "currentIXG": 0.13369999999999999, "priorTOI": 22.462236286919833, "priorPPTOI": 1.8867088607594937, "deploymentChange": -1.1605696202531632, "ppTOIChange": -1.7617088607594937, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020362", "date": "20251126", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 23.65 }, { "gameId": "2024020936", "date": "20250227", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 23.716666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2024020470", "date": "20241212", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 18.883333333333333 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 3, "h2hSOG": 1.3333333333333333, "opponentDefense": { "team": "TBL", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 218.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 24.22222222222222, "mostAllowedRank": 29, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.310572168589594, "pkSogAllowed60": 47.9002079002079, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 36.333333333333336, "positionUnassignedSOG": 1.0, "positionTotals": { "L": 36.0, "R": 49.0, "D": 66.0, "C": 66.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.333333333333333, "L": 4.0, "R": 5.444444444444445, "D": 7.333333333333333 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 24.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.25, "positionSourceDifference": 1.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 24.22222222222222, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.333333333333333, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8483710", "team": "TBL", "name": "Dennis Hildeby", "status": "Unconfirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 2, "savePct": 0.92, "gaa": 2.0089285714285716, "gsax": 0.8719999999999999, "goalsAllowed": 4.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.872, "shotsAgainst": 50.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9926942170737747, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Starter remains unconfirmed per Daily Faceoff; no Model Goal adjustment.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": null }, "goalShootingPct": 0.04347769786860632, "goalHistoryGoals": 14.0, "goalHistoryShots": 355.0, "goalExpected": 0.07385711831882721, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.07385711831882721, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.0711956065058902, "goalProbability": 0.0711956065058902, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.698735718299307, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.949133901567226, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 18.185, "Current_PP_Share": 0.024092515258592996, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.821018518518519, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.11615046221936683, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.2, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9588832837562793, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0032616490671127, "Position_Factor": 1.0144938104754524, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 75.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3113.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.13600509355877, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 10.063737001006373, "Prior_5v5_Min": 17.893037974683544, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.39617793955445535, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9991571455328714, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.34640522875817, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9991571455328714, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0032616490671127, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 4.949133901567226, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 1.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020362", "date": "20251126", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 23.65 }, { "gameId": "2024020936", "date": "20250227", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 23.716666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2024020470", "date": "20241212", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 18.883333333333333 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 184, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 35, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8483710", "goalieName": "Dennis Hildeby", "starterStatus": "Unconfirmed", "shooterId": "8477346", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8483710", "goalieName": "Dennis Hildeby", "opponent": "UTA", "games": 1, "availableGames": 1, "shotsAgainst": 41.0, "goalsAgainst": 6.0, "savePct": 0.8536585365853658, "gaa": 6.0, "gsax": -1.2770000000000001, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020733", "date": "20260113", "goalieTeam": "TOR", "opponent": "UTA", "shotsAgainst": 41.0, "goalsAgainst": 6.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.723 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.698735718299307, "adjustedSOG": 1.698735718299307, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.698735718299307, "adjustedSOG": 1.698735718299307, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.04347769786860632, "goalHistoryGoals": 14.0, "goalHistoryShots": 355.0, "goalExpected": 0.07385711831882721, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.07385711831882721, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.0711956065058902, "goalProbability": 0.0711956065058902, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05782352530215878, "modelSOG": 1.698735718299307, "historyGames": 170, "seasonGames": { "2024": 81, "2025": 79, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 14.0, "historyShots": 355.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.03943661971830986, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.04347769786860632, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 43.8578588210017, "btb": { "id": "8477346", "name": "MacKenzie Weegar", "score": 43.8578588210017, "components": { "Goal model": 24.88372093023256, "SOG model": 65.11627906976744, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 40.69767441860465, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 43.703554930708975, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Unconfirmed", "h2hGames": 3, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 292 } }, { "id": "8475726", "name": "Tyler Toffoli", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "BOS", "position": "R", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 2.3, "priorSOG": 2.1772151898734178, "currentTOI": 12.948333333333332, "currentFiveTOI": 10.958333333333332, "ppShare": 0.32124193052566863, "rate": 2.0355458238108253, "fifty": 2.050765379594571, "inputs": { "Player": "Tyler Toffoli", "Player_ID": "8475726", "Team": "SJS", "Opponent": "BOS", "Position": "C", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 2.002861356319292, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 2.0883752297824656, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 10, "Prior_GP": 79, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 7.665399239543726, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.992575380761341, "Current_PP_SOG60": 24.114832535885167, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 15.892829958897854, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 11.157352320675104, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 10.958333333333332, "Current_PP_Share": 0.32124193052566863, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.5515612797342307, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1045.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3253.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 5, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.0425, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 1.9682780301909364, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 1.6198624346756842, "Other_State_SOG": 0.09974683544303799, "Environment_Proxy": 1.0253180054689388, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 2.1772151898734178, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:45.939717+00:00", "priorGP": 79, "currentTotalSOG": 23.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.7416666666666667, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.30 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 2.432, "currentIXG": 0.2432, "priorTOI": 14.972573839662447, "priorPPTOI": 2.771729957805907, "deploymentChange": -2.0242405063291145, "ppTOIChange": -1.0300632911392404, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2026020105", "date": "20261013", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "home", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 12.733333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025021027", "date": "20260312", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 11.483333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020351", "date": "20251123", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 13.15 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 2.6666666666666665, "opponentDefense": { "team": "BOS", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 280.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 28.0, "mostAllowedRank": 11, "fiveSogAllowed60": 26.539776154413243, "pkSogAllowed60": 48.89206576125804, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 42.4, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 68.0, "R": 50.0, "L": 68.0, "C": 94.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.4, "L": 6.8, "R": 5.0, "D": 6.8 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 26.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 25.0, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 28.0, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.0, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8480280", "team": "BOS", "name": "Jeremy Swayman", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 8, "savePct": 0.9279279279279279, "gaa": 1.976189659313137, "gsax": 7.695, "goalsAllowed": 16.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 23.695, "shotsAgainst": 222.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9412127550171275, "factor": 0.9412127550171275, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T14:59:19.712Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.12282652254173816, "goalHistoryGoals": 52.0, "goalHistoryShots": 428.0, "goalExpected": 0.2660369529195026, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.25039737339372686, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.23358919413907617, "goalProbability": 0.22150863015843725, "goalAdjustmentPP": -1.208056398063892, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 2.1659568911844715, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 7.665399239543726, "Current_PP_SOG60": 24.114832535885167, "Current_5v5_Min": 10.958333333333332, "Current_PP_Share": 0.32124193052566863, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.0425, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.6198624346756842, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.2, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0194233133624404, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.013580746919003, "Position_Factor": 0.9879488680718189, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1045.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3253.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.992575380761341, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 15.892829958897854, "Prior_5v5_Min": 11.621729957805908, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.5515612797342307, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9644808743169399, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.382352941176471, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9644808743169399, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.013580746919003, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 7.665399239543726, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 24.114832535885167, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 3.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.5 }, { "season": "2026", "label": "2026–27", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 5.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2026020105", "date": "20261013", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "home", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 12.733333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025021027", "date": "20260312", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 11.483333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020351", "date": "20251123", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 13.15 }, { "gameId": "2024021117", "date": "20250322", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 18.166666666666668 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Reviewed October22 projected lineup and coach reports", "ppAssignmentSourceDate": "2026-10-13T18:05:17.352Z", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 160, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 79, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480280", "goalieName": "Jeremy Swayman", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8475726", "goals": 1, "sog": 12, "shootingPct": 0.08333333333333333, "gamesWithAttempts": 6, "recordedAttempts": 16, "log": [ { "gameId": "2026020105", "date": "20261013", "season": 2026, "goals": 0, "sog": 5, "attempts": 5 }, { "gameId": "2025021027", "date": "20260312", "season": 2025, "goals": 1, "sog": 2, "attempts": 3 }, { "gameId": "2025020351", "date": "20251123", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2 }, { "gameId": "2023020671", "date": "20240115", "season": 2023, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2023020443", "date": "20231213", "season": 2023, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 3 }, { "gameId": "2021020224", "date": "20211114", "season": 2021, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480280", "goalieName": "Jeremy Swayman", "opponent": "SJS", "games": 5, "availableGames": 6, "shotsAgainst": 123.0, "goalsAgainst": 9.0, "savePct": 0.926829268292683, "gaa": 2.2632020117351215, "gsax": 2.58, "log": [ { "gameId": "2026020105", "date": "20261013", "goalieTeam": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "shotsAgainst": 38.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.146 }, { "gameId": "2025021027", "date": "20260312", "goalieTeam": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "shotsAgainst": 28.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3406.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.91 }, { "gameId": "2025020351", "date": "20251123", "goalieTeam": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3588.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.577 }, { "gameId": "2023020340", "date": "20231130", "goalieTeam": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "shotsAgainst": 26.0, "goalsAgainst": 0.0, "seconds": 3574.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.886 }, { "gameId": "2022020748", "date": "20230122", "goalieTeam": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "shotsAgainst": 1.0, "goalsAgainst": 0.0, "seconds": 148.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 0.061 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 2.1659568911844715, "adjustedSOG": 2.1659568911844715, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 2.210160093045379, "adjustedSOG": 2.1659568911844715, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.12282652254173816, "goalHistoryGoals": 52.0, "goalHistoryShots": 428.0, "goalExpected": 0.2714662784892884, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.2555075238711499, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.23773901237329564, "goalProbability": 0.2254766908749823, "goalAdjustmentPP": -1.2262321498313355 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1285240390203775, "modelSOG": 2.1659568911844715, "historyGames": 167, "seasonGames": { "2024": 78, "2025": 79, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 52.0, "historyShots": 428.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.12149532710280374, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.12282652254173816, "goalieFactor": 0.9412127550171275, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 58.40221582782549, "btb": { "id": "8475726", "name": "Tyler Toffoli", "score": 58.40221582782549, "components": { "Goal model": 79.53488372093024, "SOG model": 79.76744186046511, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 73.95348837209302, "Goalie": 34.26470588235294, "Team H2H": 53.468854904886236, "Goalie H2H": 46.64719329438659 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": 12, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 108 } }, { "id": "8481617", "name": "Vasily Podkolzin", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "TOR", "position": "L", "currentGP": 9, "currentSOG": 2.4444444444444446, "priorSOG": 1.6951219512195121, "currentTOI": 19.25, "currentFiveTOI": 15.301851851851852, "ppShare": 0.6415317804974339, "rate": 2.684665192504142, "fifty": 2.7865507766580864, "inputs": { "Player": "Vasily Podkolzin", "Player_ID": "8481617", "Team": "EDM", "Opponent": "TOR", "Position": "R", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 2.6037555548580915, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 3.0151958663301306, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 9, "Prior_GP": 82, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 6.5351567227399245, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.217436105829935, "Current_PP_SOG60": 11.076923076923077, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 23.333333333333332, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 14.912698735320687, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 15.301851851851852, "Current_PP_Share": 0.6415317804974339, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.10779626505903843, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1625.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2533.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 5, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.365824915824916, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 2.5831678139266527, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 3.4423472120866516, "Other_State_SOG": 0.07710027100271002, "Environment_Proxy": 1.1073475417853031, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.6951219512195121, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:45.963337+00:00", "priorGP": 82, "currentTotalSOG": 22.0, "currentPPTOI": 3.009259259259259, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.44 SOG/game in 9 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 9 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 4.29, "currentIXG": 0.4766666666666667, "priorTOI": 15.377235772357725, "priorPPTOI": 0.43902439024390244, "deploymentChange": 3.872764227642275, "ppTOIChange": 2.5702348690153567, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020891", "date": "20260203", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "TOR", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 14.233333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020499", "date": "20251213", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "TOR", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 2.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 14.016666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020833", "date": "20250201", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "TOR", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 7.816666666666666 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 2.3333333333333335, "opponentDefense": { "team": "TOR", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 332.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 30.181818181818183, "mostAllowedRank": 5, "fiveSogAllowed60": 28.565965583173995, "pkSogAllowed60": 43.340857787810386, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.0, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 130.0, "D": 98.0, "R": 49.0, "L": 55.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 11.818181818181818, "L": 5.0, "R": 4.454545454545454, "D": 8.909090909090908 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 30.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 35.25, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 30.181818181818183, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.0, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8476932", "team": "TOR", "name": "Anthony Stolarz", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 4, "savePct": 0.8974358974358975, "gaa": 2.9929333518082304, "gsax": 0.46399999999999864, "goalsAllowed": 12.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 12.463999999999999, "shotsAgainst": 117.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9986972168772468, "factor": 0.9986972168772468, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T20:54:34.227Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.12493578112722338, "goalHistoryGoals": 34.0, "goalHistoryShots": 275.0, "goalExpected": 0.3100463869921312, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.30964246379188726, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.26658706538481164, "goalProbability": 0.26629076304749594, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.029630233731570144, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 9, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 2.481646044029675, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 6.5351567227399245, "Current_PP_SOG60": 11.076923076923077, "Current_5v5_Min": 15.301851851851852, "Current_PP_Share": 0.6415317804974339, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.365824915824916, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 3.4423472120866516, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.2222222222222222, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0610638532936316, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9495764141752431, "Position_Factor": 0.9857662226884111, "Input_GP": 9, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1625.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2533.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.217436105829935, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 23.333333333333332, "Prior_5v5_Min": 14.004674796747969, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.10779626505903843, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9935749638783855, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.062091503267974, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9935749638783855, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9495764141752431, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 6.5351567227399245, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 11.076923076923077, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020891", "date": "20260203", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "TOR", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 14.233333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020499", "date": "20251213", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "TOR", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 2.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 14.016666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020833", "date": "20250201", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "TOR", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 7.816666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020274", "date": "20241116", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "TOR", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 12.166666666666666 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Reviewed October22 projected lineup and coach reports", "ppAssignmentSourceDate": "2026-10-13T18:05:51.141Z", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 162, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 15, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476932", "goalieName": "Anthony Stolarz", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8481617", "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 2, "recordedAttempts": 4, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020891", "date": "20260203", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2 }, { "gameId": "2024020274", "date": "20241116", "season": 2024, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476932", "goalieName": "Anthony Stolarz", "opponent": "EDM", "games": 5, "availableGames": 5, "shotsAgainst": 140.0, "goalsAgainst": 14.0, "savePct": 0.9, "gaa": 3.2642487046632125, "gsax": -1.5539999999999994, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020891", "date": "20260203", "goalieTeam": "TOR", "opponent": "EDM", "shotsAgainst": 36.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.709 }, { "gameId": "2024020274", "date": "20241116", "goalieTeam": "TOR", "opponent": "EDM", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3640.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.584 }, { "gameId": "2022020660", "date": "20230111", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "EDM", "shotsAgainst": 16.0, "goalsAgainst": 0.0, "seconds": 1200.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.249 }, { "gameId": "2021020049", "date": "20211019", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "EDM", "shotsAgainst": 36.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3461.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.959 }, { "gameId": "2018020494", "date": "20181214", "goalieTeam": "PHI", "opponent": "EDM", "shotsAgainst": 22.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3539.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.945 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 2.481646044029675, "adjustedSOG": 2.481646044029675, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 2.481646044029675, "adjustedSOG": 2.481646044029675, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.12493578112722338, "goalHistoryGoals": 34.0, "goalHistoryShots": 275.0, "goalExpected": 0.3100463869921312, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.3100463869921312, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.26658706538481164, "goalProbability": 0.26658706538481164, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12850917922708766, "modelSOG": 2.481646044029675, "historyGames": 173, "seasonGames": { "2024": 82, "2025": 82, "2026": 9 }, "historyGoals": 34.0, "historyShots": 275.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.12363636363636364, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.12493578112722338, "goalieFactor": 0.9986972168772468, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 65.57761022870127, "btb": { "id": "8481617", "name": "Vasily Podkolzin", "score": 65.57761022870127, "components": { "Goal model": 86.04651162790698, "SOG model": 86.74418604651163, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 96.04651162790698, "Goalie": 60.73529411764706, "Team H2H": 56.07982096232749, "Goalie H2H": 49.40944881889764 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": 3, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 29 } }, { "id": "8478507", "name": "John Marino", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "TBL", "position": "D", "currentGP": 9, "currentSOG": 0.8888888888888888, "priorSOG": 0.6875, "currentTOI": 20.375925925925927, "currentFiveTOI": 18.037037037037038, "ppShare": 0.31976744186046513, "rate": 0.6313455265315786, "fifty": 0.7072552406598482, "inputs": { "Player": "John Marino", "Player_ID": "8478507", "Team": "UTA", "Opponent": "TBL", "Position": "D", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 0.7593177481883279, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 0.8504712817111545, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 9, "Prior_GP": 80, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.217659137577002, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 2.0960454608971073, "Current_PP_SOG60": 7.7005347593582885, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 17.993175925925925, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 18.037037037037038, "Current_PP_Share": 0.31976744186046513, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.014698852772466539, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 935.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2924.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 6, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.821018518518519, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 1.1003823636051289, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 1.5416047588285964, "Other_State_SOG": 0.05625, "Environment_Proxy": 0.8844868901771036, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 0.6875, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/utah-mammoth/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:45.985699+00:00", "priorGP": 80, "currentTotalSOG": 8.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.7314814814814816, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.89 SOG/game in 9 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 9 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.49, "currentIXG": 0.05444444444444444, "priorTOI": 20.202083333333334, "priorPPTOI": 0.06999999999999999, "deploymentChange": 0.17384259259259238, "ppTOIChange": 1.6614814814814816, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020825", "date": "20260126", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 20.25 }, { "gameId": "2025020194", "date": "20251102", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 18.716666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2024021145", "date": "20250327", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 19.666666666666668 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 1.3333333333333333, "opponentDefense": { "team": "TBL", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 218.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 24.22222222222222, "mostAllowedRank": 29, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.310572168589594, "pkSogAllowed60": 47.9002079002079, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 36.333333333333336, "positionUnassignedSOG": 1.0, "positionTotals": { "L": 36.0, "R": 49.0, "D": 66.0, "C": 66.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.333333333333333, "L": 4.0, "R": 5.444444444444445, "D": 7.333333333333333 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 24.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.25, "positionSourceDifference": 1.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 24.22222222222222, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.333333333333333, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8483710", "team": "TBL", "name": "Dennis Hildeby", "status": "Unconfirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 2, "savePct": 0.92, "gaa": 2.0089285714285716, "gsax": 0.8719999999999999, "goalsAllowed": 4.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.872, "shotsAgainst": 50.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9926942170737747, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Starter remains unconfirmed per Daily Faceoff; no Model Goal adjustment.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": null }, "goalShootingPct": 0.06613206552653764, "goalHistoryGoals": 7.0, "goalHistoryShots": 93.0, "goalExpected": 0.057177989390941056, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.057177989390941056, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.0555740433949819, "goalProbability": 0.0555740433949819, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 9, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 0.8646031079733406, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.217659137577002, "Current_PP_SOG60": 7.7005347593582885, "Current_5v5_Min": 18.037037037037038, "Current_PP_Share": 0.31976744186046513, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.821018518518519, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.5416047588285964, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9588832837562793, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0032616490671127, "Position_Factor": 1.0144938104754524, "Input_GP": 9, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 935.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2924.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 2.0960454608971073, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 17.890833333333333, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.014698852772466539, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9991571455328714, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.34640522875817, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9991571455328714, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0032616490671127, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 2.217659137577002, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 7.7005347593582885, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020825", "date": "20260126", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 20.25 }, { "gameId": "2025020194", "date": "20251102", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 18.716666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2024021145", "date": "20250327", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 19.666666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2024021111", "date": "20250322", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 19.166666666666668 } ], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 85, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. 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Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8483710", "goalieName": "Dennis Hildeby", "starterStatus": "Unconfirmed", "shooterId": "8478507", "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 2, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020733", "date": "20260113", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8483710", "goalieName": "Dennis Hildeby", "opponent": "UTA", "games": 1, "availableGames": 1, "shotsAgainst": 41.0, "goalsAgainst": 6.0, "savePct": 0.8536585365853658, "gaa": 6.0, "gsax": -1.2770000000000001, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020733", "date": "20260113", "goalieTeam": "TOR", "opponent": "UTA", "shotsAgainst": 41.0, "goalsAgainst": 6.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.723 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.8646031079733406, "adjustedSOG": 0.8646031079733406, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.8646031079733406, "adjustedSOG": 0.8646031079733406, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.06613206552653764, "goalHistoryGoals": 7.0, "goalHistoryShots": 93.0, "goalExpected": 0.057177989390941056, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.057177989390941056, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.0555740433949819, "goalProbability": 0.0555740433949819, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05763488646621762, "modelSOG": 0.8646031079733406, "historyGames": 124, "seasonGames": { "2024": 35, "2025": 80, "2026": 9 }, "historyGoals": 7.0, "historyShots": 93.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.07526881720430108, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.06613206552653764, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8478508", "name": "Yakov Trenin", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "SEA", "position": "R", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 1.0, "priorSOG": 1.1951219512195121, "currentTOI": 13.103333333333333, "currentFiveTOI": 11.226666666666667, "ppShare": 0.002883031301482702, "rate": 1.2863623576877299, "fifty": 1.1990139896182894, "inputs": { "Player": "Yakov Trenin", "Player_ID": "8478508", "Team": "MIN", "Opponent": "SEA", "Position": "C", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.2478730463579206, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.2030331749762322, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 10, "Prior_GP": 82, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.809976247030879, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.757797016793575, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 16.628175519630485, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 11.36610569105691, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 11.226666666666667, "Current_PP_Share": 0.002883031301482702, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.016680149466466346, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 7.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2428.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 5, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 3.9491666666666667, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.027731706860736477, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.011385571114772104, "Other_State_SOG": 0.05390243902439025, "Environment_Proxy": 1.1489692159321772, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.1951219512195121, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/minnesota-wild/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:46.009944+00:00", "priorGP": 82, "currentTotalSOG": 10.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.011666666666666667, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.00 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.248, "currentIXG": 0.1248, "priorTOI": 13.28170731707317, "priorPPTOI": 0.08800813008130082, "deploymentChange": -0.17837398373983682, "ppTOIChange": -0.07634146341463414, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021240", "date": "20260407", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 12.566666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020693", "date": "20260108", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 12.15 }, { "gameId": "2025020465", "date": "20251208", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 16.666666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2024021088", "date": "20250319", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 17.233333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020982", "date": "20250304", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 9.9 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 6, "h2hSOG": 1.6, "opponentDefense": { "team": "SEA", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 311.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 31.1, "mostAllowedRank": 3, "fiveSogAllowed60": 29.01212141229316, "pkSogAllowed60": 57.63738641280831, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 48.5, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 101.0, "R": 65.0, "L": 58.0, "D": 87.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.1, "L": 5.8, "R": 6.5, "D": 8.7 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 31.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 3, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 28.666666666666668, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 31.1, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.5, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8478916", "team": "SEA", "name": "Joey Daccord", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 5, "savePct": 0.881578947368421, "gaa": 3.8855909336211547, "gsax": -2.3970000000000002, "goalsAllowed": 18.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 15.603, "shotsAgainst": 152.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.024854248577667, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Likely starter per Daily Faceoff; no Model Goal adjustment until confirmed.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T20:31:39.541Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.08826024930748766, "goalHistoryGoals": 13.0, "goalHistoryShots": 193.0, "goalExpected": 0.09457736813497111, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.09457736813497111, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.09024265432597695, "goalProbability": 0.09024265432597695, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.0715737704918031, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.809976247030879, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 11.226666666666667, "Current_PP_Share": 0.002883031301482702, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 3.9491666666666667, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.011385571114772104, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.1, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0689197555315912, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0920680305430235, "Position_Factor": 1.0071973889972414, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 7.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2428.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.757797016793575, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 16.628175519630485, "Prior_5v5_Min": 11.691463414634146, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.016680149466466346, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.1038251366120218, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.382352941176471, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.1038251366120218, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0920680305430235, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 4.809976247030879, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 1.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 2.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. 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Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478916", "goalieName": "Joey Daccord", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8478508", "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 3, "recordedAttempts": 5, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021240", "date": "20260407", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2024020033", "date": "20241012", "season": 2024, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2 }, { "gameId": "2022021142", "date": "20230323", "season": 2022, "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 2 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478916", "goalieName": "Joey Daccord", "opponent": "MIN", "games": 5, "availableGames": 6, "shotsAgainst": 123.0, "goalsAgainst": 19.0, "savePct": 0.8455284552845528, "gaa": 4.3387250237868695, "gsax": -6.912000000000001, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021240", "date": "20260407", "goalieTeam": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 28.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3488.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.569 }, { "gameId": "2024020982", "date": "20250304", "goalieTeam": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 20.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3463.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.635 }, { "gameId": "2024020033", "date": "20241012", "goalieTeam": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 38.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3885.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.839 }, { "gameId": "2023021307", "date": "20240418", "goalieTeam": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.121 }, { "gameId": "2023020913", "date": "20240224", "goalieTeam": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 13.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 1329.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.924 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.0715737704918031, "adjustedSOG": 1.0715737704918031, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.0934426229508196, "adjustedSOG": 1.0715737704918031, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.08826024930748766, "goalHistoryGoals": 13.0, "goalHistoryShots": 193.0, "goalExpected": 0.09650751850507257, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.09650751850507257, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.09199692925160732, "goalProbability": 0.09199692925160732, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12860253047093884, "modelSOG": 1.0715737704918031, "historyGames": 168, "seasonGames": { "2024": 76, "2025": 82, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 13.0, "historyShots": 193.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.06735751295336788, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.08826024930748766, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 43.618180369178454, "btb": { "id": "8478508", "name": "Yakov Trenin", "score": 43.618180369178454, "components": { "Goal model": 32.7906976744186, "SOG model": 34.651162790697676, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 36.27906976744186, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 44.66383812010444, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Likely", "h2hGames": 6, "goalieH2HShots": 2, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 299 } }, { "id": "8483676", "name": "Stephen Halliday", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "NYR", "position": "L", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 1.6, "priorSOG": 1.1333333333333333, "currentTOI": 11.908333333333333, "currentFiveTOI": 8.301666666666666, "ppShare": 0.4902787538065121, "rate": 1.301045301852833, "fifty": 1.3434718449971437, "inputs": { "Player": "Stephen Halliday", "Player_ID": "8483676", "Team": "OTT", "Opponent": "NYR", "Position": "C", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.2139710906658563, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.0714791625612192, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 10, "Prior_GP": 30, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.781971491668339, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 8.562691131498472, "Current_PP_SOG60": 12.040133779264215, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 6.453540484015536, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 7.773166666666666, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 8.301666666666666, "Current_PP_Share": 0.4902787538065121, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.3763469170033102, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2093.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 4269.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 5, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 6.001439393939394, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 2.7372517230215325, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 2.9423782271059156, "Other_State_SOG": 0.010000000000000002, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9482920490252438, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.1333333333333333, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/ottawa-senators/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:46.033453+00:00", "priorGP": 30, "currentTotalSOG": 16.0, "currentPPTOI": 3.4883333333333333, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.60 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 2.372, "currentIXG": 0.2372, "priorTOI": 8.510555555555555, "priorPPTOI": 1.8594444444444445, "deploymentChange": 3.397777777777778, "ppTOIChange": 1.6288888888888888, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020427", "date": "20251204", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "NYR", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 6.583333333333333 } ], "h2hGames": 1, "h2hAvailableGames": 1, "h2hSOG": 2.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "NYR", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 283.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 25.727272727272727, "mostAllowedRank": 23, "fiveSogAllowed60": 24.897512126427788, "pkSogAllowed60": 40.17358958462492, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 39.81818181818182, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 106.0, "D": 82.0, "R": 57.0, "L": 38.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.636363636363637, "L": 3.4545454545454546, "R": 5.181818181818182, "D": 7.454545454545454 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 27.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.4, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 25.727272727272727, "oppPosSogAllowed": 3.4545454545454546, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8482193", "team": "NYR", "name": "Dylan Garand", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.9285714285714286, "gaa": 1.846928781306842, "gsax": 4.030999999999999, "goalsAllowed": 11.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 15.030999999999999, "shotsAgainst": 154.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9674872583533348, "factor": 0.9674872583533348, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T15:37:42.216Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.13232807863336216, "goalHistoryGoals": 7.0, "goalHistoryShots": 50.0, "goalExpected": 0.17508091988610397, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.1693885591705866, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.16061090524898258, "goalProbability": 0.15581917455004526, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.4791730698937319, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.3230821583316112, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.781971491668339, "Current_PP_SOG60": 12.040133779264215, "Current_5v5_Min": 8.301666666666666, "Current_PP_Share": 0.4902787538065121, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 6.001439393939394, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 2.9423782271059156, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.1, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9864268368728425, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9197863814450764, "Position_Factor": 0.9636523028595196, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2093.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 4269.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 8.562691131498472, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 6.453540484015536, "Prior_5v5_Min": 6.54, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.3763469170033102, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.85, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.062091503267974, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9197863814450764, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.781971491668339, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 12.040133779264215, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 2.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020427", "date": "20251204", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "NYR", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 6.583333333333333 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "lineupReviewedAt": "2026-10-22T12:25:32.333917+00:00", "lineupReviewNote": "Reported forward, defense and PP chart reviewed October22; matches existing assignments. Final dressing unconfirmed. Dated statistical inputs now include October21.", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 35, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 9, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482193", "goalieName": "Dylan Garand", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8483676", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482193", "goalieName": "Dylan Garand", "opponent": "OTT", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "No appearance found in the supplied historical files; this does not establish that the goalie has never faced the team." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.3230821583316112, "adjustedSOG": 1.3230821583316112, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.3230821583316112, "adjustedSOG": 1.3230821583316112, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.13232807863336216, "goalHistoryGoals": 7.0, "goalHistoryShots": 50.0, "goalExpected": 0.17508091988610397, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.1693885591705866, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.16061090524898258, "goalProbability": 0.15581917455004526, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.4791730698937319 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12849211795004323, "modelSOG": 1.3230821583316112, "historyGames": 40, "seasonGames": { "2025": 30, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 7.0, "historyShots": 50.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.14, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.13232807863336216, "goalieFactor": 0.9674872583533348, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 53.07727571457378, "btb": { "id": "8483676", "name": "Stephen Halliday", "score": 53.07727571457378, "components": { "Goal model": 59.30232558139535, "SOG model": 48.604651162790695, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 72.79069767441861, "Goalie": 39.55882352941177, "Team H2H": 50.34417279848089, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 1, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 171 } }, { "id": "8486052", "name": "Nikita Klepov", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "PHI", "position": "R", "currentGP": 3, "currentSOG": 0.0, "priorSOG": null, "currentTOI": 13.46111111111111, "currentFiveTOI": 11.555555555555555, "ppShare": 0.26320064987814784, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/anaheim-ducks/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:46.036525+00:00", "priorGP": null, "currentTotalSOG": 0.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.8, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.00 SOG/game in 3 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 3 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.0, "currentIXG": 0.0, "priorTOI": null, "priorPPTOI": null, "deploymentChange": null, "ppTOIChange": null, "h2hLog": [], "h2hGames": 0, "h2hAvailableGames": 0, "h2hSOG": null, "opponentDefense": { "team": "PHI", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 383.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 31.916666666666668, "mostAllowedRank": 2, "fiveSogAllowed60": 31.042564889030356, "pkSogAllowed60": 46.879209699146834, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.75, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 113.0, "C": 130.0, "R": 73.0, "L": 67.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.833333333333334, "L": 5.583333333333333, "R": 6.083333333333333, "D": 9.416666666666666 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 27.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.833333333333332, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 31.916666666666668, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.083333333333333, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8479361", "team": "PHI", "name": "Joseph Woll", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 6, "savePct": 0.9166666666666666, "gaa": 2.640143007746253, "gsax": 4.5710000000000015, "goalsAllowed": 16.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 20.571, "shotsAgainst": 192.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9655996195755495, "factor": 0.9655996195755495, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T14:50:13.988Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.12849724317920672, "goalHistoryGoals": 0.0, "goalHistoryShots": 0.0, "goalExpected": 0.0, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.0, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.0, "goalProbability": 0.0, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 3, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 0.0, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 11.555555555555555, "Current_PP_Share": 0.26320064987814784, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.388425925925926, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.4182372055239643, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.1165260841882552, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9915761915723407, "Position_Factor": 0.9951535644939745, "Input_GP": 3, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 324.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1231.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": null, "Prior_PP_SOG60": null, "Prior_5v5_Min": null, "Prior_PP_Share": null, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.07103825136612, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.382352941176471, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.07103825136612, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9915761915723407, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 0, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. 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Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 1, "playerPriorWeight": 0, "currentSeasonOnly": true }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 1, "playerPriorWeight": 0, "currentSeasonOnly": true }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479361", "goalieName": "Joseph Woll", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8486052", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. 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Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.318, "currentIXG": 0.16475, "priorTOI": 11.521929824561402, "priorPPTOI": 0.20043859649122805, "deploymentChange": -0.5156798245614027, "ppTOIChange": 0.34747807017543864, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020822", "date": "20260125", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "PIT", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 9.183333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020354", "date": "20241127", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "PIT", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 9.233333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020133", "date": "20241026", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "PIT", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 15.833333333333334 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 3, "h2hSOG": 1.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "PIT", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 279.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.9, "mostAllowedRank": 12, "fiveSogAllowed60": 26.122338261223383, "pkSogAllowed60": 50.11600928074246, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 42.4, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 55.0, "L": 47.0, "D": 70.0, "C": 107.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.7, "L": 4.7, "R": 5.5, "D": 7.0 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 25.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 3, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 28.333333333333332, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.9, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.5, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8481668", "team": "PIT", "name": "Arturs Silovs", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 6, "savePct": 0.8662420382165605, "gaa": 3.5131744040150563, "gsax": -1.0760000000000005, "goalsAllowed": 21.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 19.924, "shotsAgainst": 157.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0136052553954562, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Likely starter per Daily Faceoff; no Model Goal adjustment until confirmed.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T15:01:09.604Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.11338946823983956, "goalHistoryGoals": 13.0, "goalHistoryShots": 128.0, "goalExpected": 0.13772423586228735, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.13772423586228735, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.1286610573498405, "goalProbability": 0.1286610573498405, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 8, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.214612238686712, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.764611689351481, "Current_PP_SOG60": 27.376425855513308, "Current_5v5_Min": 10.408333333333333, "Current_PP_Share": 0.09958349110185535, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.906041666666667, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.4885607566578316, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.011083778612368, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0249142728068137, "Position_Factor": 0.9996890729968466, "Input_GP": 8, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 263.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2641.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.836988737403675, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 11.098684210526315, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.0531226308588135, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.010928961748634, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.382352941176471, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.010928961748634, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0249142728068137, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.764611689351481, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 27.376425855513308, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 1.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020822", "date": "20260125", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "PIT", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 9.183333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020354", "date": "20241127", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "PIT", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 9.233333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020133", "date": "20241026", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "PIT", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 15.833333333333334 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 61, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481668", "goalieName": "Arturs Silovs", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8481535", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481668", "goalieName": "Arturs Silovs", "opponent": "NSH", "games": 2, "availableGames": 2, "shotsAgainst": 62.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "savePct": 0.9193548387096774, "gaa": 2.397123451857771, "gsax": 1.6559999999999997, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020281", "date": "20251114", "goalieTeam": "PIT", "opponent": "NSH", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3644.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.231 }, { "gameId": "2022021010", "date": "20230306", "goalieTeam": "VAN", "opponent": "NSH", "shotsAgainst": 32.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3865.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.425 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.214612238686712, "adjustedSOG": 1.214612238686712, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.2394002435578695, "adjustedSOG": 1.214612238686712, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.11338946823983956, "goalHistoryGoals": 13.0, "goalHistoryShots": 128.0, "goalExpected": 0.14053493455335445, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.14053493455335445, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.131106689997136, "goalProbability": 0.131106689997136, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1285279875868342, "modelSOG": 1.214612238686712, "historyGames": 118, "seasonGames": { "2024": 72, "2025": 38, "2026": 8 }, "historyGoals": 13.0, "historyShots": 128.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.1015625, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.11338946823983956, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 48.66404246673237, "btb": { "id": "8481535", "name": "Nils Hoglander", "score": 48.66404246673237, "components": { "Goal model": 47.906976744186046, "SOG model": 42.093023255813954, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 53.95348837209303, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 43.88431411930107, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Likely", "h2hGames": 3, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 217 } }, { "id": "8478519", "name": "Anthony Cirelli", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "UTA", "position": "C", "currentGP": 9, "currentSOG": 1.4444444444444444, "priorSOG": 1.7605633802816902, "currentTOI": 17.001851851851853, "currentFiveTOI": 11.88888888888889, "ppShare": 0.2970027247956403, "rate": 1.4697989236858686, "fifty": 1.4522379081327406, "inputs": { "Player": "Anthony Cirelli", "Player_ID": "8478519", "Team": "TBL", "Opponent": "UTA", "Position": "C", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.6280422332431133, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.6693160816993478, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 9, "Prior_GP": 71, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.046728971962617, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.924152891016531, "Current_PP_SOG60": 12.385321100917432, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 6.557377049180328, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 12.088137715179968, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 11.88888888888889, "Current_PP_Share": 0.2970027247956403, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.22895630886910293, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 872.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2936.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 5, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.626018518518518, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 1.2795049108965986, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 1.3739401049550912, "Other_State_SOG": 0.34068857589984347, "Environment_Proxy": 0.85, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.7605633802816902, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:46.095727+00:00", "priorGP": 71.0, "currentTotalSOG": 13.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.6148148148148147, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.44 SOG/game in 9 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 9 games. 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shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478872", "goalieName": "Karel Vejmelka", "opponent": "TBL", "games": 5, "availableGames": 6, "shotsAgainst": 128.0, "goalsAgainst": 18.0, "savePct": 0.859375, "gaa": 4.0538004379105415, "gsax": -5.162, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020825", "date": "20260126", "goalieTeam": "UTA", "opponent": "TBL", "shotsAgainst": 29.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.389 }, { "gameId": "2025020194", "date": "20251102", "goalieTeam": "UTA", "opponent": "TBL", "shotsAgainst": 25.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3527.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.366 }, { "gameId": "2024021145", "date": "20250327", "goalieTeam": "UTA", "opponent": "TBL", "shotsAgainst": 12.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 1754.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.834 }, { "gameId": "2024021111", "date": "20250322", "goalieTeam": "UTA", "opponent": "TBL", "shotsAgainst": 27.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.77 }, { "gameId": "2022020582", "date": "20221231", "goalieTeam": "ARI", "opponent": "TBL", "shotsAgainst": 35.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3504.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.479 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.2615190376173175, "adjustedSOG": 1.2615190376173175, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.2872643240993036, "adjustedSOG": 1.2615190376173175, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. 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Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.20299999999999999, "currentIXG": 0.10149999999999999, "priorTOI": 10.001754385964912, "priorPPTOI": 0.2692982456140351, "deploymentChange": 0.6982456140350877, "ppTOIChange": 0.1557017543859649, "h2hLog": [], "h2hGames": 0, "h2hAvailableGames": 0, "h2hSOG": null, "opponentDefense": { "team": "DET", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 243.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.0, "mostAllowedRank": 17, "fiveSogAllowed60": 24.49072666463971, "pkSogAllowed60": 47.14573539288113, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 41.22222222222222, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 39.0, "C": 96.0, "D": 73.0, "L": 35.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.666666666666666, "L": 3.888888888888889, "R": 4.333333333333333, "D": 8.11111111111111 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 29.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 2, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 28.5, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.0, "oppPosSogAllowed": 3.888888888888889, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8476434", "team": "DET", "name": "John Gibson", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 6, "savePct": 0.8734177215189873, "gaa": 3.5755077717634207, "gsax": -1.6310000000000002, "goalsAllowed": 20.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 18.369, "shotsAgainst": 158.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0182492009293351, "factor": 1.0182492009293351, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T17:52:44.365Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.10841006249548796, "goalHistoryGoals": 2.0, "goalHistoryShots": 37.0, "goalExpected": 0.09650856706811813, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.09826977129994643, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.09199788134957339, "goalProbability": 0.09359565111101471, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.15977697614413255, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 2, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 0.8902177975603955, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.901639344262295, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 10.166666666666666, "Current_PP_Share": 0.08885017421602788, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.265740740740741, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.37901180797522266, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9801217943191682, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9957661672519493, "Position_Factor": 0.9733472642225318, "Input_GP": 2, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 51.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 574.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.932858317347218, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 9.602631578947367, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.07150668511096403, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.8902177975603955, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.062091503267974, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.8902177975603955, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9957661672519493, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.901639344262295, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Reviewed October22 projected lineup and coach reports", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 23, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476434", "goalieName": "John Gibson", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8482747", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476434", "goalieName": "John Gibson", "opponent": "CGY", "games": 5, "availableGames": 25, "shotsAgainst": 152.0, "goalsAgainst": 14.0, "savePct": 0.9078947368421053, "gaa": 2.9964328180737216, "gsax": 0.16800000000000015, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021063", "date": "20260316", "goalieTeam": "DET", "opponent": "CGY", "shotsAgainst": 27.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3589.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.703 }, { "gameId": "2025020477", "date": "20251210", "goalieTeam": "DET", "opponent": "CGY", "shotsAgainst": 37.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.965 }, { "gameId": "2024021203", "date": "20250403", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "CGY", "shotsAgainst": 26.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 2381.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.555 }, { "gameId": "2024020818", "date": "20250130", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "CGY", "shotsAgainst": 29.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3525.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.091 }, { "gameId": "2024020648", "date": "20250107", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "CGY", "shotsAgainst": 33.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3725.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.854 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.8902177975603955, "adjustedSOG": 0.8902177975603955, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.8902177975603955, "adjustedSOG": 0.8902177975603955, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.10841006249548796, "goalHistoryGoals": 2.0, "goalHistoryShots": 37.0, "goalExpected": 0.09650856706811813, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.09650856706811813, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.09199788134957339, "goalProbability": 0.09199788134957339, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1285217856188185, "modelSOG": 0.8902177975603955, "historyGames": 43, "seasonGames": { "2024": 22, "2025": 19, "2026": 2 }, "historyGoals": 2.0, "historyShots": 37.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.05405405405405406, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.10841006249548796, "goalieFactor": 1.0182492009293351, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": 40.901162790697676, "btb": { "id": "8482747", "name": "Brennan Othmann", "score": 40.901162790697676, "components": { "Goal model": 33.72093023255814, "SOG model": 20.697674418604652, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 53.72093023255814, "Goalie": 2.5, "Team H2H": 50.0, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Team H2H unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 0, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 337 } }, { "id": "8484321", "name": "Nikolas Matinpalo", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "NYR", "position": "D", "currentGP": 8, "currentSOG": 0.625, "priorSOG": 0.74, "currentTOI": 15.15625, "currentFiveTOI": 11.883333333333333, "ppShare": 0.0011844832691738228, "rate": 0.6451938079914652, "fifty": 0.5834957108478063, "inputs": { "Player": "Nikolas Matinpalo", "Player_ID": "8484321", "Team": "OTT", "Opponent": "NYR", "Position": "D", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 0.7203242981137802, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 0.682540192880321, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 8, "Prior_GP": 50, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.524544179523142, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.086890243902439, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 12.516733333333335, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 11.883333333333333, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0011844832691738228, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.0010119875270480404, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 4.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3377.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 5, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 6.001439393939394, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.006798037730457756, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.0071086045530819, "Other_State_SOG": 0.030500000000000003, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9482920490252438, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 0.74, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/ottawa-senators/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:46.171117+00:00", "priorGP": 50, "currentTotalSOG": 5.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.008333333333333333, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.62 SOG/game in 8 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 8 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.194, "currentIXG": 0.02425, "priorTOI": 15.627333333333333, "priorPPTOI": 0.005, "deploymentChange": -0.47108333333333263, "ppTOIChange": 0.003333333333333333, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021119", "date": "20260323", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "NYR", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 18.316666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020427", "date": "20251204", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "NYR", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 18.966666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2024020750", "date": "20250121", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "NYR", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 14.166666666666666 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 3, "h2hSOG": 2.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "NYR", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 283.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 25.727272727272727, "mostAllowedRank": 23, "fiveSogAllowed60": 24.897512126427788, "pkSogAllowed60": 40.17358958462492, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 39.81818181818182, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 106.0, "D": 82.0, "R": 57.0, "L": 38.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.636363636363637, "L": 3.4545454545454546, "R": 5.181818181818182, "D": 7.454545454545454 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 27.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.4, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 25.727272727272727, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.454545454545454, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8482193", "team": "NYR", "name": "Dylan Garand", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.9285714285714286, "gaa": 1.846928781306842, "gsax": 4.030999999999999, "goalsAllowed": 11.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 15.030999999999999, "shotsAgainst": 154.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9674872583533348, "factor": 0.9674872583533348, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T15:37:42.216Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.03662868626419574, "goalHistoryGoals": 1.0, "goalHistoryShots": 85.0, "goalExpected": 0.023034142711514556, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.022285239580482667, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.022770882048177347, "goalProbability": 0.022038757991226426, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.07321240569509203, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 8, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 0.6288552787663109, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.524544179523142, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 11.883333333333333, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0011844832691738228, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 6.001439393939394, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.0071086045530819, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.125, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9864268368728425, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9197863814450764, "Position_Factor": 1.0097164911259575, "Input_GP": 8, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 4.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3377.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.086890243902439, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 13.994666666666667, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.0010119875270480404, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0077105575326217, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.34640522875817, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0077105575326217, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9197863814450764, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 2.524544179523142, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 2.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021119", "date": "20260323", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "NYR", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 18.316666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020427", "date": "20251204", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "NYR", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 18.966666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2024020750", "date": "20250121", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "NYR", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 14.166666666666666 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "lineupReviewedAt": "2026-10-22T12:25:32.333917+00:00", "lineupReviewNote": "Reported forward, defense and PP chart reviewed October22; matches existing assignments. Final dressing unconfirmed. Dated statistical inputs now include October21.", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 59, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482193", "goalieName": "Dylan Garand", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8484321", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482193", "goalieName": "Dylan Garand", "opponent": "OTT", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "No appearance found in the supplied historical files; this does not establish that the goalie has never faced the team." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.6288552787663109, "adjustedSOG": 0.6288552787663109, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.6288552787663109, "adjustedSOG": 0.6288552787663109, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.03662868626419574, "goalHistoryGoals": 1.0, "goalHistoryShots": 85.0, "goalExpected": 0.023034142711514556, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.022285239580482667, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.022770882048177347, "goalProbability": 0.022038757991226426, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.07321240569509203 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05776306958876212, "modelSOG": 0.6288552787663109, "historyGames": 99, "seasonGames": { "2024": 41, "2025": 50, "2026": 8 }, "historyGoals": 1.0, "historyShots": 85.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.011764705882352941, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.03662868626419574, "goalieFactor": 0.9674872583533348, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 34.490782421601644, "btb": { "id": "8484321", "name": "Nikolas Matinpalo", "score": 34.490782421601644, "components": { "Goal model": 4.186046511627907, "SOG model": 10.930232558139535, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 6.976744186046512, "Goalie": 39.55882352941177, "Team H2H": 56.35669813215505, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 3, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 410 } }, { "id": "8483695", "name": "Amadeus Lombardi", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "LAK", "position": "L", "currentGP": 8, "currentSOG": 1.75, "priorSOG": null, "currentTOI": 10.779166666666667, "currentFiveTOI": 10.070833333333333, "ppShare": 0.07464409388226241, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-jersey-devils/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:46.174557+00:00", "priorGP": null, "currentTotalSOG": 14.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.4041666666666667, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.75 SOG/game in 8 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 8 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.695, "currentIXG": 0.211875, "priorTOI": null, "priorPPTOI": null, "deploymentChange": null, "ppTOIChange": null, "h2hLog": [], "h2hGames": 0, "h2hAvailableGames": 0, "h2hSOG": null, "opponentDefense": { "team": "LAK", "games": 7, "sogAllowedTotal": 193.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.571428571428573, "mostAllowedRank": 14, "fiveSogAllowed60": 25.227874154660395, "pkSogAllowed60": 57.61396702230844, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 39.142857142857146, "positionUnassignedSOG": 1.0, "positionTotals": { "C": 86.0, "D": 47.0, "R": 28.0, "L": 31.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 12.285714285714286, "L": 4.428571428571429, "R": 4.0, "D": 6.714285714285714 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 27.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 29.5, "positionSourceDifference": 1.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.571428571428573, "oppPosSogAllowed": 4.428571428571429, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8476341", "team": "LAK", "name": "Anton Forsberg", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 3, "savePct": 0.8833333333333333, "gaa": 2.6313041662315966, "gsax": -2.1049999999999995, "goalsAllowed": 7.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.8950000000000005, "shotsAgainst": 60.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0218332511814823, "factor": 1.0218332511814823, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T19:00:24.293Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.11273093783606924, "goalHistoryGoals": 0.0, "goalHistoryShots": 14.0, "goalExpected": 0.18711289374317075, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.1911981765515594, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.170649897337316, "goalProbability": 0.17403111573458524, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.33812183972692367, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 8, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.6598184787149206, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 10.426148117501034, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 10.070833333333333, "Current_PP_Share": 0.07464409388226241, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.972354497354498, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.37115689591641887, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9946407827573338, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.085978140946376, "Position_Factor": 0.9860189907303214, "Input_GP": 8, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 194.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2599.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": null, "Prior_PP_SOG60": null, "Prior_5v5_Min": null, "Prior_PP_Share": null, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9484677021228117, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.062091503267974, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9484677021228117, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.085978140946376, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 10.426148117501034, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 1, "playerPriorWeight": 0, "currentSeasonOnly": true }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 1, "playerPriorWeight": 0, "currentSeasonOnly": true }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476341", "goalieName": "Anton Forsberg", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8483695", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476341", "goalieName": "Anton Forsberg", "opponent": "NJD", "games": 5, "availableGames": 11, "shotsAgainst": 115.0, "goalsAgainst": 15.0, "savePct": 0.8695652173913043, "gaa": 4.18280402788536, "gsax": -4.362, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021050", "date": "20260314", "goalieTeam": "LAK", "opponent": "NJD", "shotsAgainst": 27.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3466.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.948 }, { "gameId": "2024020737", "date": "20250119", "goalieTeam": "OTT", "opponent": "NJD", "shotsAgainst": 26.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.295 }, { "gameId": "2024020062", "date": "20241017", "goalieTeam": "OTT", "opponent": "NJD", "shotsAgainst": 35.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3470.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.298 }, { "gameId": "2023021224", "date": "20240406", "goalieTeam": "OTT", "opponent": "NJD", "shotsAgainst": 9.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 994.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 0.874 }, { "gameId": "2022020274", "date": "20221119", "goalieTeam": "OTT", "opponent": "NJD", "shotsAgainst": 18.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 1380.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.223 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.6598184787149206, "adjustedSOG": 1.6598184787149206, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.6598184787149206, "adjustedSOG": 1.6598184787149206, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.11273093783606924, "goalHistoryGoals": 0.0, "goalHistoryShots": 14.0, "goalExpected": 0.18711289374317075, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.18711289374317075, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.170649897337316, "goalProbability": 0.170649897337316, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12851326913311895, "modelSOG": 1.6598184787149206, "historyGames": 8, "seasonGames": { "2026": 8 }, "historyGoals": 0.0, "historyShots": 14.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.0, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.11273093783606924, "goalieFactor": 1.0218332511814823, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8478970", "name": "Jalen Chatfield", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "STL", "position": "D", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 1.7272727272727273, "priorSOG": 1.3888888888888888, "currentTOI": 20.48030303030303, "currentFiveTOI": 16.44090909090909, "ppShare": 0.012422360248447204, "rate": 1.3968876291312213, "fifty": 1.4782048693008623, "inputs": { "Player": "Jalen Chatfield", "Player_ID": "8478970", "Team": "CAR", "Opponent": "STL", "Position": "D", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.4177707750210575, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.3421986394728098, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 11, "Prior_GP": 72, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.308266519214819, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.235351390823405, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 13.533834586466165, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 16.643983585858585, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 16.44090909090909, "Current_PP_Share": 0.012422360248447204, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.01393527164707602, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 52.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 4186.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 7, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 6.0017676767676775, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.07728016302732527, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.07455612020829412, "Other_State_SOG": 0.1772727272727273, "Environment_Proxy": 1.00049372648272, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.3888888888888888, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:46.195358+00:00", "priorGP": 72, "currentTotalSOG": 19.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.0787878787878788, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.73 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.932, "currentIXG": 0.08472727272727273, "priorTOI": 20.13912037037037, "priorPPTOI": 0.06157407407407408, "deploymentChange": 0.3411826599326595, "ppTOIChange": 0.017213804713804716, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021033", "date": "20260312", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "STL", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 18.8 }, { "gameId": "2025020730", "date": "20260113", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "STL", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 17.583333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2024020284", "date": "20241117", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "STL", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 16.966666666666665 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 1.6666666666666667, "opponentDefense": { "team": "STL", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 246.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.333333333333332, "mostAllowedRank": 15, "fiveSogAllowed60": 24.991224991224993, "pkSogAllowed60": 45.92737978410206, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 41.333333333333336, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 29.0, "L": 56.0, "D": 69.0, "C": 92.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.222222222222221, "L": 6.222222222222222, "R": 3.2222222222222223, "D": 7.666666666666667 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 27.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 3, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27.666666666666668, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.333333333333332, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.666666666666667, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8480981", "team": "STL", "name": "Joel Hofer", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 6, "savePct": 0.9192546583850931, "gaa": 2.1949160491511117, "gsax": 2.83, "goalsAllowed": 13.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 15.83, "shotsAgainst": 161.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9785370006226618, "factor": 0.9785370006226618, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T15:44:23.131Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.04737315166221652, "goalHistoryGoals": 10.0, "goalHistoryShots": 233.0, "goalExpected": 0.08158428025256814, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.07983323689630668, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.07834497073818363, "goalProbability": 0.07672969902975545, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.16152717084281787, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.7221628156447408, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.308266519214819, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 16.44090909090909, "Current_PP_Share": 0.012422360248447204, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 6.0017676767676775, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.07455612020829412, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.2727272727272727, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9895702550696535, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9828075032932179, "Position_Factor": 1.0047192141124446, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 52.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 4186.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.235351390823405, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 13.533834586466165, "Prior_5v5_Min": 17.117824074074075, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.01393527164707602, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0206499344446525, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.34640522875817, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0206499344446525, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9828075032932179, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.308266519214819, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021033", "date": "20260312", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "STL", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 18.8 }, { "gameId": "2025020730", "date": "20260113", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "STL", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 17.583333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2024020284", "date": "20241117", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "STL", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 16.966666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2024020084", "date": "20241019", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "STL", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 18.566666666666666 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Reviewed October22 projected lineup and coach reports", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 153, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. 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Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.042, "currentIXG": 0.17366666666666666, "priorTOI": 11.822333333333333, "priorPPTOI": 0.7463333333333334, "deploymentChange": -0.00011111111111006267, "ppTOIChange": 0.1286666666666666, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021082", "date": "20260318", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 5.8 }, { "gameId": "2024020675", "date": "20250111", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 14.016666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020568", "date": "20241228", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 19.416666666666668 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 3, "h2hSOG": 2.3333333333333335, "opponentDefense": { "team": "PHI", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 383.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 31.916666666666668, "mostAllowedRank": 2, "fiveSogAllowed60": 31.042564889030356, "pkSogAllowed60": 46.879209699146834, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.75, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 113.0, "C": 130.0, "R": 73.0, "L": 67.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.833333333333334, "L": 5.583333333333333, "R": 6.083333333333333, "D": 9.416666666666666 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 27.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.833333333333332, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 31.916666666666668, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.083333333333333, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8479361", "team": "PHI", "name": "Joseph Woll", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 6, "savePct": 0.9166666666666666, "gaa": 2.640143007746253, "gsax": 4.5710000000000015, "goalsAllowed": 16.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 20.571, "shotsAgainst": 192.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9655996195755495, "factor": 0.9655996195755495, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T14:50:13.988Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.09752107034351869, "goalHistoryGoals": 28.0, "goalHistoryShots": 319.0, "goalExpected": 0.10235982071903317, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.09883860394611987, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.09729531862267682, "goalProbability": 0.09411109688020734, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.3184221742469476, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 6, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.049617486338798, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.611847233047545, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 10.691666666666668, "Current_PP_Share": 0.19337016574585636, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.388425925925926, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.0419608144055659, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.1165260841882552, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9915761915723407, "Position_Factor": 0.9951535644939745, "Input_GP": 6, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 315.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1629.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 8.426466224903571, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 6.43144260830728, "Prior_5v5_Min": 10.111, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.14252953871473598, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.07103825136612, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.382352941176471, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.07103825136612, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9915761915723407, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.611847233047545, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 3.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 0.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021082", "date": "20260318", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 5.8 }, { "gameId": "2024020675", "date": "20250111", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 14.016666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020568", "date": "20241228", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 19.416666666666668 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "ppAssignmentSourceDate": "2026-10-13T16:34:52.608Z", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 101, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 11, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479361", "goalieName": "Joseph Woll", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8478366", "goals": 0, "sog": 7, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 2, "recordedAttempts": 9, "log": [ { "gameId": "2024021176", "date": "20250330", "season": 2024, "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 5 }, { "gameId": "2024020459", "date": "20241212", "season": 2024, "goals": 0, "sog": 4, "attempts": 4 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479361", "goalieName": "Joseph Woll", "opponent": "ANA", "games": 3, "availableGames": 3, "shotsAgainst": 91.0, "goalsAgainst": 7.0, "savePct": 0.9230769230769231, "gaa": 2.6359832635983262, "gsax": 2.575, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021029", "date": "20260312", "goalieTeam": "TOR", "opponent": "ANA", "shotsAgainst": 40.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3567.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.449 }, { "gameId": "2024021176", "date": "20250330", "goalieTeam": "TOR", "opponent": "ANA", "shotsAgainst": 31.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3593.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.338 }, { "gameId": "2024020459", "date": "20241212", "goalieTeam": "TOR", "opponent": "ANA", "shotsAgainst": 20.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 2400.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.788 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.049617486338798, "adjustedSOG": 1.049617486338798, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.0710382513661203, "adjustedSOG": 1.049617486338798, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.09752107034351869, "goalHistoryGoals": 28.0, "goalHistoryShots": 319.0, "goalExpected": 0.10444879665207467, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.10085571831236723, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.09917907872692472, "goalProbability": 0.09593653672151181, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.3242542005412907 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12861328473934328, "modelSOG": 1.049617486338798, "historyGames": 137, "seasonGames": { "2024": 81, "2025": 50, "2026": 6 }, "historyGoals": 28.0, "historyShots": 319.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.0877742946708464, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.09752107034351869, "goalieFactor": 0.9655996195755495, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 45.38201112385417, "btb": { "id": "8478366", "name": "Frank Vatrano", "score": 45.38201112385417, "components": { "Goal model": 36.74418604651163, "SOG model": 32.7906976744186, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 58.372093023255815, "Goalie": 28.970588235294116, "Team H2H": 53.70556336613778, "Goalie H2H": 46.03536400055256 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 3, "goalieH2HShots": 7, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 271 } }, { "id": "8477369", "name": "Carson Soucy", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "VGK", "position": "D", "currentGP": 6, "currentSOG": 0.6666666666666666, "priorSOG": 0.8157894736842105, "currentTOI": 15.130555555555555, "currentFiveTOI": 13.486111111111112, "ppShare": 0.0032851511169513796, "rate": 0.7185454344918304, "fifty": 0.6853754551064145, "inputs": { "Player": "Carson Soucy", "Player_ID": "8477369", "Team": "CBJ", "Opponent": "VGK", "Position": "D", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 0.7252208193198063, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 0.7133148299624479, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 6, "Prior_GP": 76, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.966014418125644, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.217397780591346, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 13.857054093567253, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 13.486111111111112, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0032851511169513796, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.006698326958642151, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 5.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1522.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 4, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.052367424242425, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.017462072148271057, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.013312639370047386, "Other_State_SOG": 0.02368421052631579, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9217353117054976, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 0.8157894736842105, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:46.247092+00:00", "priorGP": 76, "currentTotalSOG": 4.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.013888888888888888, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.67 SOG/game in 6 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 6 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.062, "currentIXG": 0.010333333333333333, "priorTOI": 16.519298245614035, "priorPPTOI": 0.030701754385964914, "deploymentChange": -1.3887426900584803, "ppTOIChange": -0.016812865497076026, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020458", "date": "20251207", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 23.1 }, { "gameId": "2025020313", "date": "20251118", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 18.05 }, { "gameId": "2024020905", "date": "20250222", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 14.466666666666667 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 0.6666666666666666, "opponentDefense": { "team": "VGK", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 275.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 25.0, "mostAllowedRank": 27, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.585792714368043, "pkSogAllowed60": 47.03517587939699, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 38.72727272727273, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 59.0, "C": 80.0, "R": 61.0, "L": 75.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.2727272727272725, "L": 6.818181818181818, "R": 5.545454545454546, "D": 5.363636363636363 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 26.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 25.75, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 25.0, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.363636363636363, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8479394", "team": "VGK", "name": "Carter Hart", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.8876404494382022, "gaa": 2.8716148845371516, "gsax": -1.5090000000000003, "goalsAllowed": 20.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 18.491, "shotsAgainst": 178.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.017200797231895, "factor": 1.017200797231895, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T22:33:02.238Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.059781645429175224, "goalHistoryGoals": 9.0, "goalHistoryShots": 147.0, "goalExpected": 0.03422003637556048, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.03480864828252457, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.033641152856043764, "goalProbability": 0.034209795808448636, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.05686429524048714, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 6, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 0.5724171044455743, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.966014418125644, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 13.486111111111112, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0032851511169513796, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.052367424242425, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.013312639370047386, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9589471960166247, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9956874166464801, "Position_Factor": 0.9732049652601255, "Input_GP": 6, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 5.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1522.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.217397780591346, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 14.722587719298247, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.006698326958642151, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.8586256566683613, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.34640522875817, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.8586256566683613, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9956874166464801, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 2.966014418125644, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020458", "date": "20251207", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 23.1 }, { "gameId": "2025020313", "date": "20251118", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 18.05 }, { "gameId": "2024020905", "date": "20250222", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 14.466666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020519", "date": "20241219", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 17.316666666666666 } ], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "NHL.com October 20 game-specific projected lineup", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 92, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479394", "goalieName": "Carter Hart", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8477369", "goals": 1, "sog": 7, "shootingPct": 0.14285714285714285, "gamesWithAttempts": 4, "recordedAttempts": 10, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020458", "date": "20251207", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2023020042", "date": "20231017", "season": 2023, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 4 }, { "gameId": "2022020876", "date": "20230216", "season": 2022, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2 }, { "gameId": "2021020036", "date": "20211018", "season": 2021, "goals": 1, "sog": 3, "attempts": 3 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479394", "goalieName": "Carter Hart", "opponent": "CBJ", "games": 5, "availableGames": 11, "shotsAgainst": 128.0, "goalsAgainst": 11.0, "savePct": 0.9140625, "gaa": 2.6073215696602583, "gsax": 0.11300000000000043, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020692", "date": "20260108", "goalieTeam": "VGK", "opponent": "CBJ", "shotsAgainst": 1.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 504.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 0.415 }, { "gameId": "2025020502", "date": "20251213", "goalieTeam": "VGK", "opponent": "CBJ", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.064 }, { "gameId": "2023020011", "date": "20231012", "goalieTeam": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "shotsAgainst": 33.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.608 }, { "gameId": "2022021287", "date": "20230411", "goalieTeam": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "shotsAgainst": 31.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3884.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.732 }, { "gameId": "2022020510", "date": "20221220", "goalieTeam": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "shotsAgainst": 33.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.294 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.5724171044455743, "adjustedSOG": 0.5724171044455743, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.5724171044455743, "adjustedSOG": 0.5724171044455743, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.059781645429175224, "goalHistoryGoals": 9.0, "goalHistoryShots": 147.0, "goalExpected": 0.03422003637556048, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.03422003637556048, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.033641152856043764, "goalProbability": 0.033641152856043764, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05766066421006281, "modelSOG": 0.5724171044455743, "historyGames": 157, "seasonGames": { "2024": 75, "2025": 76, "2026": 6 }, "historyGoals": 9.0, "historyShots": 147.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.061224489795918366, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.059781645429175224, "goalieFactor": 1.017200797231895, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8482866", "name": "Ville Ottavainen", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "position": "D", "currentGP": 7, "currentSOG": 1.5714285714285714, "priorSOG": null, "currentTOI": 12.204761904761906, "currentFiveTOI": 12.147619047619047, "ppShare": 0.0, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/seattle-kraken/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:46.251870+00:00", "priorGP": null, "currentTotalSOG": 11.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.0, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.57 SOG/game in 7 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 7 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.46900000000000003, "currentIXG": 0.067, "priorTOI": null, "priorPPTOI": null, "deploymentChange": null, "ppTOIChange": null, "h2hLog": [], "h2hGames": 0, "h2hAvailableGames": 0, "h2hSOG": null, "opponentDefense": { "team": "MIN", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 261.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 26.1, "mostAllowedRank": 21, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.40367597004765, "pkSogAllowed60": 45.30289727831431, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 40.4, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 77.0, "C": 114.0, "R": 29.0, "L": 41.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 11.4, "L": 4.1, "R": 2.9, "D": 7.7 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 24.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 28.333333333333332, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 26.1, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.7, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8482661", "team": "MIN", "name": "Jesper Wallstedt", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 9, "savePct": 0.9152542372881356, "gaa": 2.1979363819525, "gsax": 6.934999999999999, "goalsAllowed": 20.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 26.935, "shotsAgainst": 236.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9495343259526882, "factor": 0.9495343259526882, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T18:37:27.914Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.060415759039961985, "goalHistoryGoals": 1.0, "goalHistoryShots": 12.0, "goalExpected": 0.09722383755368973, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.09231737105807643, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.09264711624891998, "goalProbability": 0.08818428030054012, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.4462835948379859, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 7, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.6092463141840367, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 7.761662093296747, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 12.147619047619047, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.085, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.0, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.957587153238364, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9748801923935355, "Position_Factor": 1.0117153945269357, "Input_GP": 7, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1725.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": null, "Prior_PP_SOG60": null, "Prior_5v5_Min": null, "Prior_PP_Share": null, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0240658362989326, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.34640522875817, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0240658362989326, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9748801923935355, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 7.761662093296747, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 1, "playerPriorWeight": 0, "currentSeasonOnly": true }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 1, "playerPriorWeight": 0, "currentSeasonOnly": true }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482661", "goalieName": "Jesper Wallstedt", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8482866", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482661", "goalieName": "Jesper Wallstedt", "opponent": "SEA", "games": 2, "availableGames": 2, "shotsAgainst": 55.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "savePct": 0.9272727272727272, "gaa": 1.9647973802701597, "gsax": 2.874, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021240", "date": "20260407", "goalieTeam": "MIN", "opponent": "SEA", "shotsAgainst": 27.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.053 }, { "gameId": "2025020693", "date": "20260108", "goalieTeam": "MIN", "opponent": "SEA", "shotsAgainst": 28.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3729.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.821 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.6092463141840367, "adjustedSOG": 1.6092463141840367, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.6092463141840367, "adjustedSOG": 1.6092463141840367, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.060415759039961985, "goalHistoryGoals": 1.0, "goalHistoryShots": 12.0, "goalExpected": 0.09722383755368973, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.09722383755368973, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.09264711624891998, "goalProbability": 0.09264711624891998, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05766565012475742, "modelSOG": 1.6092463141840367, "historyGames": 8, "seasonGames": { "2024": 1, "2026": 7 }, "historyGoals": 1.0, "historyShots": 12.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.08333333333333333, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.060415759039961985, "goalieFactor": 0.9495343259526882, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": 41.93741450068399, "btb": { "id": "8482866", "name": "Ville Ottavainen", "score": 41.93741450068399, "components": { "Goal model": 34.41860465116279, "SOG model": 61.16279069767442, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 21.27906976744186, "Goalie": 23.676470588235293, "Team H2H": 50.0, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Team H2H unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 0, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 322 } }, { "id": "8477940", "name": "Nikolaj Ehlers", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "STL", "position": "L", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 2.090909090909091, "priorSOG": 2.5365853658536586, "currentTOI": 16.277272727272727, "currentFiveTOI": 11.07121212121212, "ppShare": 0.6368848542761586, "rate": 2.4747034951430567, "fifty": 2.2910672825469356, "inputs": { "Player": "Nikolaj Ehlers", "Player_ID": "8477940", "Team": "CAR", "Opponent": "STL", "Position": "L", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 2.627639958275801, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 2.4467634027371252, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 11, "Prior_GP": 82, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.9121390447516085, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 8.149882903981265, "Current_PP_SOG60": 10.802700675168792, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 10.217074480325229, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 11.655336289726533, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 11.07121212121212, "Current_PP_Share": 0.6368848542761586, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.599694563787409, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2666.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 4186.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 7, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 6.0017676767676775, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 3.755472687214048, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 3.8224349322175413, "Other_State_SOG": 0.27971175166297124, "Environment_Proxy": 1.00049372648272, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 2.5365853658536586, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:46.283298+00:00", "priorGP": 82, "currentTotalSOG": 23.0, "currentPPTOI": 4.039393939393939, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.09 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 2.311, "currentIXG": 0.21009090909090908, "priorTOI": 16.59573170731707, "priorPPTOI": 2.6497967479674798, "deploymentChange": -0.31845898004434403, "ppTOIChange": 1.3895971914264593, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021033", "date": "20260312", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "STL", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 15.033333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020730", "date": "20260113", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "STL", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 17.95 }, { "gameId": "2024020903", "date": "20250222", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "STL", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 16.633333333333333 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 1.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "STL", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 246.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.333333333333332, "mostAllowedRank": 15, "fiveSogAllowed60": 24.991224991224993, "pkSogAllowed60": 45.92737978410206, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 41.333333333333336, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 29.0, "L": 56.0, "D": 69.0, "C": 92.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.222222222222221, "L": 6.222222222222222, "R": 3.2222222222222223, "D": 7.666666666666667 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 27.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 3, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27.666666666666668, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.333333333333332, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.222222222222222, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8480981", "team": "STL", "name": "Joel Hofer", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 6, "savePct": 0.9192546583850931, "gaa": 2.1949160491511117, "gsax": 2.83, "goalsAllowed": 13.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 15.83, "shotsAgainst": 161.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9785370006226618, "factor": 0.9785370006226618, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T15:44:23.131Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.13039379674142346, "goalHistoryGoals": 53.0, "goalHistoryShots": 405.0, "goalExpected": 0.2758185818760518, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.26989868782498777, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.24104939433244824, "goalProbability": 0.2365431621083601, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.4506232224088136, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 2.115273799588887, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.9121390447516085, "Current_PP_SOG60": 10.802700675168792, "Current_5v5_Min": 11.07121212121212, "Current_PP_Share": 0.6368848542761586, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 6.0017676767676775, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 3.8224349322175413, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.2727272727272727, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9895702550696535, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9828075032932179, "Position_Factor": 1.0266176530305278, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2666.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 4186.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 8.149882903981265, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 10.217074480325229, "Prior_5v5_Min": 13.018292682926829, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.599694563787409, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.1085590024124223, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.062091503267974, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.1085590024124223, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9828075032932179, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.9121390447516085, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 10.802700675168792, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021033", "date": "20260312", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "STL", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 15.033333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020730", "date": "20260113", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "STL", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 17.95 }, { "gameId": "2024020903", "date": "20250222", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "STL", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 16.633333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020099", "date": "20241022", "team": "WPG", "opponent": "STL", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 17.433333333333334 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Reviewed October22 projected lineup and coach reports", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 228, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. 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Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.13039379674142346, "goalHistoryGoals": 53.0, "goalHistoryShots": 405.0, "goalExpected": 0.28144753252658344, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.275406824311212, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.2453094886591278, "goalProbability": 0.2407368263325218, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.45726623266059974 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1284886735441884, "modelSOG": 2.115273799588887, "historyGames": 162, "seasonGames": { "2024": 69, "2025": 82, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 53.0, "historyShots": 405.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.1308641975308642, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.13039379674142346, "goalieFactor": 0.9785370006226618, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 60.59896714911811, "btb": { "id": "8477940", "name": "Nikolaj Ehlers", "score": 60.59896714911811, "components": { "Goal model": 81.86046511627907, "SOG model": 79.06976744186046, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 66.27906976744185, "Goalie": 66.02941176470588, "Team H2H": 45.26296158149944, "Goalie H2H": 52.53093363329584 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": 6, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 85 } }, { "id": "8479976", "name": "Juuso Vlimki", "position": "D", "priorGP": 0, "priorSOG": null, "priorTOI": null, "priorPPTOI": null, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.2249637155297535, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 11.483333333333333, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 6.0017676767676775, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.0, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9895702550696535, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9828075032932179, "Position_Factor": 1.0047192141124446, "Input_GP": 1, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 600.0, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0206499344446525, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.34640522875817, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0206499344446525, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9828075032932179, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.2249637155297535, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "inputs": null, "team": "CAR", "isHome": false, "opponent": "STL", "opponentDefense": { "team": "STL", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 246.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.333333333333332, "mostAllowedRank": 15, "fiveSogAllowed60": 24.991224991224993, "pkSogAllowed60": 45.92737978410206, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 41.333333333333336, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 29.0, "L": 56.0, "D": 69.0, "C": 92.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.222222222222221, "L": 6.222222222222222, "R": 3.2222222222222223, "D": 7.666666666666667 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 27.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 3, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27.666666666666668, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8480981", "team": "STL", "name": "Joel Hofer", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 6, "savePct": 0.9192546583850931, "gaa": 2.1949160491511117, "gsax": 2.83, "goalsAllowed": 13.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 15.83, "shotsAgainst": 161.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9785370006226618, "factor": 0.9785370006226618, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T15:44:23.131Z" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.333333333333332, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.666666666666667, "currentGP": 1, "currentTotalSOG": 1.0, "currentSOG": 1.0, "currentTOI": 11.483333333333333, "currentFiveTOI": 11.483333333333333, "currentPPTOI": 0.0, "currentIXG": 0.159, "currentIXGTotal": 0.159, "currentIXGGP": 1, "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "volumeNote": "Observed 1.00 SOG/game in 1 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 1 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "ppShare": 0.0, "trial": 1.0002369357557594, "deploymentChange": null, "ppTOIChange": null, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "goalShootingPct": 0.05509304462813712, "goalHistoryGoals": 2.0, "goalHistoryShots": 41.0, "goalExpected": 0.05510609814030318, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.053923355990230314, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.053615267033522686, "goalProbability": 0.05249527571975155, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.11199913137711348, "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2024020734", "date": "20250118", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "STL", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 16.3 }, { "gameId": "2024020215", "date": "20241107", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "STL", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 16.0 } ], "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2024020734", "date": "20250118", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "STL", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 16.3 }, { "gameId": "2024020215", "date": "20241107", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "STL", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 16.0 } ], "h2hGames": 2, "h2hAvailableGames": 2, "h2hSOG": 0.5, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "recentlyDressed": true, "boardEligible": true, "projected": false, "status": "Lineup pending", "line": null, "lineMates": [], "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:46.286222+00:00", "lineupSource": "Reviewed October22 projected lineup and coach reports", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 1, "playerPriorWeight": 0, "currentSeasonOnly": true }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 1, "playerPriorWeight": 0, "currentSeasonOnly": true }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480981", "goalieName": "Joel Hofer", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8479976", "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 3, "recordedAttempts": 6, "log": [ { "gameId": "2024020215", "date": "20241107", "season": 2024, "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 3 }, { "gameId": "2023020199", "date": "20231109", "season": 2023, "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2023020057", "date": "20231019", "season": 2023, "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 2 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480981", "goalieName": "Joel Hofer", "opponent": "CAR", "games": 4, "availableGames": 4, "shotsAgainst": 121.0, "goalsAgainst": 10.0, "savePct": 0.9173553719008265, "gaa": 2.5300442757748263, "gsax": 1.0949999999999998, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020730", "date": "20260113", "goalieTeam": "STL", "opponent": "CAR", "shotsAgainst": 33.0, "goalsAgainst": 0.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.698 }, { "gameId": "2024020284", "date": "20241117", "goalieTeam": "STL", "opponent": "CAR", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.293 }, { "gameId": "2024020084", "date": "20241019", "goalieTeam": "STL", "opponent": "CAR", "shotsAgainst": 40.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.792 }, { "gameId": "2021020216", "date": "20211113", "goalieTeam": "STL", "opponent": "CAR", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3429.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.312 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.0002369357557594, "adjustedSOG": 1.0002369357557594, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.0206499344446525, "adjustedSOG": 1.0002369357557594, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. 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Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.7749999999999999, "currentIXG": 0.1107142857142857, "priorTOI": 14.73888888888889, "priorPPTOI": 0.9743589743589743, "deploymentChange": -1.3365079365079389, "ppTOIChange": -0.9362637362637363, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021213", "date": "20260404", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 15.416666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025021028", "date": "20260312", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 14.833333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020186", "date": "20251101", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 13.033333333333333 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 3, "h2hSOG": 0.3333333333333333, "opponentDefense": { "team": "BUF", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 257.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 25.7, "mostAllowedRank": 24, "fiveSogAllowed60": 21.645723550871505, "pkSogAllowed60": 62.21198156682028, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 40.1, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 61.0, "L": 55.0, "D": 65.0, "C": 76.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.6, "L": 5.5, "R": 6.1, "D": 6.5 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 30.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.25, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 25.7, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.6, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8480045", "team": "BUF", "name": "Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 8, "savePct": 0.8629441624365483, "gaa": 3.5349310833909153, "gsax": -3.6580000000000013, "goalsAllowed": 27.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 23.342, "shotsAgainst": 197.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.035448902624297, "factor": 1.035448902624297, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T15:43:35.500Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.1381845227185438, "goalHistoryGoals": 17.0, "goalHistoryShots": 116.0, "goalExpected": 0.10883329890802608, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.1126913199232977, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.10312008410153428, "goalProbability": 0.10657359951412336, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.3453515412589078, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 7, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 0.7875939849624063, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.708281829419036, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 11.557142857142859, "Current_PP_Share": 0.008093070308548306, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.500555555555556, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.03642331253863879, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.14285714285714285, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.922717716387106, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.1429256259066152, "Position_Factor": 0.981671103829613, "Input_GP": 7, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 16.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1977.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.073050633321455, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 9.473684210526315, "Prior_5v5_Min": 13.191880341880342, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.22266510696285788, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9026315789473685, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.437908496732026, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9026315789473685, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.1429256259066152, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 3.708281829419036, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 0.3333333333333333 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021213", "date": "20260404", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 15.416666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025021028", "date": "20260312", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 14.833333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020186", "date": "20251101", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 13.033333333333333 } ], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "NHL.com October 20 game-specific projected lineup", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 143, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 19, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480045", "goalieName": "Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8482088", "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 2, "recordedAttempts": 3, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021028", "date": "20260312", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2025020186", "date": "20251101", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480045", "goalieName": "Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen", "opponent": "WSH", "games": 5, "availableGames": 10, "shotsAgainst": 138.0, "goalsAgainst": 13.0, "savePct": 0.9057971014492754, "gaa": 2.5547246028713357, "gsax": 1.2270000000000003, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021028", "date": "20260312", "goalieTeam": "BUF", "opponent": "WSH", "shotsAgainst": 22.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3513.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.736 }, { "gameId": "2025020186", "date": "20251101", "goalieTeam": "BUF", "opponent": "WSH", "shotsAgainst": 34.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3868.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.692 }, { "gameId": "2024020637", "date": "20250106", "goalieTeam": "BUF", "opponent": "WSH", "shotsAgainst": 28.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3900.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.29 }, { "gameId": "2024020480", "date": "20241214", "goalieTeam": "BUF", "opponent": "WSH", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3438.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.234 }, { "gameId": "2023021255", "date": "20240411", "goalieTeam": "BUF", "opponent": "WSH", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.275 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.7875939849624063, "adjustedSOG": 0.7875939849624063, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.7875939849624063, "adjustedSOG": 0.7875939849624063, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.1381845227185438, "goalHistoryGoals": 17.0, "goalHistoryShots": 116.0, "goalExpected": 0.10883329890802608, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.1126913199232977, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.10312008410153428, "goalProbability": 0.10657359951412336, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.3453515412589078 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12847856907205463, "modelSOG": 0.7875939849624063, "historyGames": 86, "seasonGames": { "2024": 1, "2025": 78, "2026": 7 }, "historyGoals": 17.0, "historyShots": 116.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.14655172413793102, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.1381845227185438, "goalieFactor": 1.035448902624297, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8480748", "name": "Kiefer Sherwood", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "BOS", "position": "R", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 1.3, "priorSOG": 2.388888888888889, "currentTOI": 15.098333333333333, "currentFiveTOI": 12.448333333333334, "ppShare": 0.13433753458346143, "rate": 2.146308785002471, "fifty": 1.7765168906400184, "inputs": { "Player": "Kiefer Sherwood", "Player_ID": "8480748", "Team": "SJS", "Opponent": "BOS", "Position": "L", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 2.1024466880252497, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.6791070820798102, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 10, "Prior_GP": 72, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.819922345695542, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 8.107689927278354, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 12.16873985938345, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 12.753208333333333, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 12.448333333333334, "Current_PP_Share": 0.13433753458346143, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.34068735175343284, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 437.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3253.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 5, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.0425, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.9895527040609786, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.6773970181371043, "Other_State_SOG": 0.2175, "Environment_Proxy": 1.0253180054689388, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 2.388888888888889, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:46.337011+00:00", "priorGP": 72, "currentTotalSOG": 13.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.7283333333333333, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.30 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.633, "currentIXG": 0.1633, "priorTOI": 17.265740740740743, "priorPPTOI": 1.712037037037037, "deploymentChange": -2.16740740740741, "ppTOIChange": -0.9837037037037037, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2026020105", "date": "20261013", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 13.916666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025021027", "date": "20260312", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 16.45 }, { "gameId": "2025020656", "date": "20260103", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 9.0, "toi": 21.183333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020555", "date": "20251220", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 18.983333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020486", "date": "20241214", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 13.783333333333333 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 6, "h2hSOG": 1.6, "opponentDefense": { "team": "BOS", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 280.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 28.0, "mostAllowedRank": 11, "fiveSogAllowed60": 26.539776154413243, "pkSogAllowed60": 48.89206576125804, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 42.4, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 68.0, "R": 50.0, "L": 68.0, "C": 94.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.4, "L": 6.8, "R": 5.0, "D": 6.8 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 26.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 25.0, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 28.0, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.0, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8480280", "team": "BOS", "name": "Jeremy Swayman", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 8, "savePct": 0.9279279279279279, "gaa": 1.976189659313137, "gsax": 7.695, "goalsAllowed": 16.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 23.695, "shotsAgainst": 222.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9412127550171275, "factor": 0.9412127550171275, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T14:59:19.712Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.13110031177137957, "goalHistoryGoals": 43.0, "goalHistoryShots": 326.0, "goalExpected": 0.1624583601148595, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.15290788069927155, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.14994851446531413, "goalProbability": 0.1417912242375572, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.8157290227756936, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.2391912568306012, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.819922345695542, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 12.448333333333334, "Current_PP_Share": 0.13433753458346143, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.0425, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.6773970181371043, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.3, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0194233133624404, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.013580746919003, "Position_Factor": 0.9879488680718189, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 437.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3253.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 8.107689927278354, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 12.16873985938345, "Prior_5v5_Min": 13.464583333333334, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.34068735175343284, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9644808743169399, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.382352941176471, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9644808743169399, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.013580746919003, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 4.819922345695542, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 1.6666666666666667 }, { "season": "2026", "label": "2026–27", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 1.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2026020105", "date": "20261013", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 13.916666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025021027", "date": "20260312", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 16.45 }, { "gameId": "2025020656", "date": "20260103", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 9.0, "toi": 21.183333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020555", "date": "20251220", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 18.983333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020486", "date": "20241214", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 13.783333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020345", "date": "20241126", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 16.483333333333334 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Reviewed October22 projected lineup and coach reports", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 213, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 38, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. 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Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.13110031177137957, "goalHistoryGoals": 43.0, "goalHistoryShots": 326.0, "goalExpected": 0.16577383685189745, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.15602844969313423, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.15276217350294458, "goalProbability": 0.14446514967917062, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.8297023823773952 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12848732814607694, "modelSOG": 1.2391912568306012, "historyGames": 160, "seasonGames": { "2024": 78, "2025": 72, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 43.0, "historyShots": 326.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.13190184049079753, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.13110031177137957, "goalieFactor": 0.9412127550171275, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 47.08737453313436, "btb": { "id": "8480748", "name": "Kiefer Sherwood", "score": 47.08737453313436, "components": { "Goal model": 55.58139534883721, "SOG model": 43.48837209302326, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 50.93023255813954, "Goalie": 34.26470588235294, "Team H2H": 40.60052219321149, "Goalie H2H": 41.87104685684781 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 6, "goalieH2HShots": 11, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 249 } }, { "id": "8474150", "name": "Mikael Backlund", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "DET", "position": "C", "currentGP": 8, "currentSOG": 3.0, "priorSOG": 2.268292682926829, "currentTOI": 17.725, "currentFiveTOI": 14.008333333333333, "ppShare": 0.015193370165745856, "rate": 2.2532586021725307, "fifty": 2.5308865778135, "inputs": { "Player": "Mikael Backlund", "Player_ID": "8474150", "Team": "CGY", "Opponent": "DET", "Position": "C", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 2.2398135597377293, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 2.6828962863781864, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 8, "Prior_GP": 82, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 11.24330755502677, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 7.28051391862955, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 9.780710265864546, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 13.906321138211382, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 14.008333333333333, "Current_PP_Share": 0.015193370165745856, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.27810459280047495, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 22.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1448.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 5, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.265740740740741, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.4012643121824539, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.064810978105177, "Other_State_SOG": 0.4326219512195123, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9911254066849144, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 2.268292682926829, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:46.360043+00:00", "priorGP": 82, "currentTotalSOG": 24.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.04583333333333333, "volumeNote": "Observed 3.00 SOG/game in 8 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 8 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 2.871, "currentIXG": 0.358875, "priorTOI": 17.94857723577236, "priorPPTOI": 1.0473577235772358, "deploymentChange": -0.22357723577235689, "ppTOIChange": -1.0015243902439024, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021063", "date": "20260316", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "DET", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 17.75 }, { "gameId": "2025020477", "date": "20251210", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "DET", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 17.133333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020834", "date": "20250201", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "DET", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 18.416666666666668 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 1.6666666666666667, "opponentDefense": { "team": "DET", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 243.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.0, "mostAllowedRank": 17, "fiveSogAllowed60": 24.49072666463971, "pkSogAllowed60": 47.14573539288113, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 41.22222222222222, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 39.0, "C": 96.0, "D": 73.0, "L": 35.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.666666666666666, "L": 3.888888888888889, "R": 4.333333333333333, "D": 8.11111111111111 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 29.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 2, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 28.5, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.0, "oppPosSogAllowed": 10.666666666666666, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8476434", "team": "DET", "name": "John Gibson", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 6, "savePct": 0.8734177215189873, "gaa": 3.5755077717634207, "gsax": -1.6310000000000002, "goalsAllowed": 20.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 18.369, "shotsAgainst": 158.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0182492009293351, "factor": 1.0182492009293351, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T17:52:44.365Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.09456586901111019, "goalHistoryGoals": 33.0, "goalHistoryShots": 385.0, "goalExpected": 0.29900648249669426, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.3044631118749502, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.2584453977058286, "goalProbability": 0.26248076656546393, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.40353688596353465, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 8, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 3.1618858434174077, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 11.24330755502677, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 14.008333333333333, "Current_PP_Share": 0.015193370165745856, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.265740740740741, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.064810978105177, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.375, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9801217943191682, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9957661672519493, "Position_Factor": 1.0165840501530836, "Input_GP": 8, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 22.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1448.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 7.28051391862955, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 9.780710265864546, "Prior_5v5_Min": 13.668292682926829, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.27810459280047495, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0616707974923458, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.437908496732026, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0616707974923458, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9957661672519493, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 11.24330755502677, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021063", "date": "20260316", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "DET", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 17.75 }, { "gameId": "2025020477", "date": "20251210", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "DET", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 17.133333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020834", "date": "20250201", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "DET", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 18.416666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2024020350", "date": "20241127", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "DET", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 18.666666666666668 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Reviewed October22 projected lineup and coach reports", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 209, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 18, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476434", "goalieName": "John Gibson", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8474150", "goals": 1, "sog": 19, "shootingPct": 0.05263157894736842, "gamesWithAttempts": 10, "recordedAttempts": 27, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021063", "date": "20260316", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 6 }, { "gameId": "2025020477", "date": "20251210", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 3 }, { "gameId": "2024021203", "date": "20250403", "season": 2024, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2024020818", "date": "20250130", "season": 2024, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2024020648", "date": "20250107", "season": 2024, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 3 }, { "gameId": "2023021268", "date": "20240412", "season": 2023, "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2022021131", "date": "20230321", "season": 2022, "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 5 }, { "gameId": "2022021037", "date": "20230310", "season": 2022, "goals": 1, "sog": 5, "attempts": 5 }, { "gameId": "2021020365", "date": "20211203", "season": 2021, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2021020037", "date": "20211018", "season": 2021, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476434", "goalieName": "John Gibson", "opponent": "CGY", "games": 5, "availableGames": 25, "shotsAgainst": 152.0, "goalsAgainst": 14.0, "savePct": 0.9078947368421053, "gaa": 2.9964328180737216, "gsax": 0.16800000000000015, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021063", "date": "20260316", "goalieTeam": "DET", "opponent": "CGY", "shotsAgainst": 27.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3589.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.703 }, { "gameId": "2025020477", "date": "20251210", "goalieTeam": "DET", "opponent": "CGY", "shotsAgainst": 37.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.965 }, { "gameId": "2024021203", "date": "20250403", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "CGY", "shotsAgainst": 26.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 2381.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.555 }, { "gameId": "2024020818", "date": "20250130", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "CGY", "shotsAgainst": 29.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3525.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.091 }, { "gameId": "2024020648", "date": "20250107", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "CGY", "shotsAgainst": 33.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3725.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.854 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 3.1618858434174077, "adjustedSOG": 3.1618858434174077, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 3.1618858434174077, "adjustedSOG": 3.1618858434174077, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.09456586901111019, "goalHistoryGoals": 33.0, "goalHistoryShots": 385.0, "goalExpected": 0.29900648249669426, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.29900648249669426, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.2584453977058286, "goalProbability": 0.2584453977058286, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12864446470388444, "modelSOG": 3.1618858434174077, "historyGames": 166, "seasonGames": { "2024": 76, "2025": 82, "2026": 8 }, "historyGoals": 33.0, "historyShots": 385.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.08571428571428572, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.09456586901111019, "goalieFactor": 1.0182492009293351, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 55.612540348180225, "btb": { "id": "8474150", "name": "Mikael Backlund", "score": 55.612540348180225, "components": { "Goal model": 84.88372093023256, "SOG model": 96.27906976744185, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 87.90697674418605, "Goalie": 2.5, "Team H2H": 37.728459530026115, "Goalie H2H": 41.218760698390966 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": 19, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 139 } }, { "id": "8483431", "name": "Logan Cooley", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "TBL", "position": "L", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 1.1, "priorSOG": 1.8888888888888888, "currentTOI": 17.996666666666666, "currentFiveTOI": 12.615, "ppShare": 0.75907484741407, "rate": 1.6757276789838649, "fifty": 1.4582264713468245, "inputs": { "Player": "Logan Cooley", "Player_ID": "8483431", "Team": "UTA", "Opponent": "TBL", "Position": "C", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 2.0937524279437407, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.516173026485617, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 10, "Prior_GP": 54, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.756242568370987, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.739306163691478, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 9.271182075714654, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 12.95411111111111, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 12.615, "Current_PP_Share": 0.75907484741407, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.5033125689196436, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2363.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3113.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 6, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.821018518518519, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 3.289603492036814, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 3.6595138963248512, "Other_State_SOG": 0.17666666666666667, "Environment_Proxy": 0.8844868901771036, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.8888888888888888, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/utah-mammoth/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:46.382320+00:00", "priorGP": 54, "currentTotalSOG": 11.0, "currentPPTOI": 3.9383333333333335, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.10 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 2.0100000000000002, "currentIXG": 0.201, "priorTOI": 17.32777777777778, "priorPPTOI": 2.3969135802469137, "deploymentChange": 0.6688888888888869, "ppTOIChange": 1.5414197530864198, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020194", "date": "20251102", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 18.5 }, { "gameId": "2024021145", "date": "20250327", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 19.566666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024021111", "date": "20250322", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "home", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 2.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 21.45 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 3, "h2hSOG": 2.6666666666666665, "opponentDefense": { "team": "TBL", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 218.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 24.22222222222222, "mostAllowedRank": 29, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.310572168589594, "pkSogAllowed60": 47.9002079002079, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 36.333333333333336, "positionUnassignedSOG": 1.0, "positionTotals": { "L": 36.0, "R": 49.0, "D": 66.0, "C": 66.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.333333333333333, "L": 4.0, "R": 5.444444444444445, "D": 7.333333333333333 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 24.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.25, "positionSourceDifference": 1.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 24.22222222222222, "oppPosSogAllowed": 4.0, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8483710", "team": "TBL", "name": "Dennis Hildeby", "status": "Unconfirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 2, "savePct": 0.92, "gaa": 2.0089285714285716, "gsax": 0.8719999999999999, "goalsAllowed": 4.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.872, "shotsAgainst": 50.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9926942170737747, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Starter remains unconfirmed per Daily Faceoff; no Model Goal adjustment.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": null }, "goalShootingPct": 0.16936973779098194, "goalHistoryGoals": 50.0, "goalHistoryShots": 271.0, "goalExpected": 0.1694738998056609, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.1694738998056609, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.15589121440379955, "goalProbability": 0.15589121440379955, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.0006149977914445, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.756242568370987, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 12.615, "Current_PP_Share": 0.75907484741407, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.821018518518519, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 3.6595138963248512, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.1, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9588832837562793, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0032616490671127, "Position_Factor": 0.9867937882386387, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2363.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3113.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.739306163691478, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 9.271182075714654, "Prior_5v5_Min": 13.74537037037037, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.5033125689196436, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9006149977914444, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.062091503267974, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9006149977914444, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0032616490671127, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 4.756242568370987, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 3.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 1.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020194", "date": "20251102", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 18.5 }, { "gameId": "2024021145", "date": "20250327", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 19.566666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024021111", "date": "20250322", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "home", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 2.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 21.45 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 117, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 25, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8483710", "goalieName": "Dennis Hildeby", "starterStatus": "Unconfirmed", "shooterId": "8483431", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8483710", "goalieName": "Dennis Hildeby", "opponent": "UTA", "games": 1, "availableGames": 1, "shotsAgainst": 41.0, "goalsAgainst": 6.0, "savePct": 0.8536585365853658, "gaa": 6.0, "gsax": -1.2770000000000001, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020733", "date": "20260113", "goalieTeam": "TOR", "opponent": "UTA", "shotsAgainst": 41.0, "goalsAgainst": 6.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.723 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.0006149977914445, "adjustedSOG": 1.0006149977914445, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.0006149977914445, "adjustedSOG": 1.0006149977914445, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.16936973779098194, "goalHistoryGoals": 50.0, "goalHistoryShots": 271.0, "goalExpected": 0.1694738998056609, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.1694738998056609, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.15589121440379955, "goalProbability": 0.15589121440379955, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12836172720454303, "modelSOG": 1.0006149977914445, "historyGames": 139, "seasonGames": { "2024": 75, "2025": 54, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 50.0, "historyShots": 271.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.18450184501845018, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.16936973779098194, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 53.437642750715796, "btb": { "id": "8483431", "name": "Logan Cooley", "score": 53.437642750715796, "components": { "Goal model": 57.906976744186046, "SOG model": 28.837209302325583, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 64.18604651162791, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 59.97188190399679, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Unconfirmed", "h2hGames": 3, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 164 } }, { "id": "8476462", "name": "Dougie Hamilton", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "LAK", "position": "D", "currentGP": 9, "currentSOG": 2.888888888888889, "priorSOG": 2.6363636363636362, "currentTOI": 21.233333333333334, "currentFiveTOI": 16.755555555555556, "ppShare": 0.3299006987863185, "rate": 2.5747875813564147, "fifty": 2.6695882063508454, "inputs": { "Player": "Dougie Hamilton", "Player_ID": "8476462", "Team": "NJD", "Opponent": "LAK", "Position": "D", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 2.597516608849998, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 2.6585439484488655, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 9, "Prior_GP": 77, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 9.151193633952255, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.809326254996658, "Current_PP_SOG60": 4.013377926421405, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 11.764705882352942, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 16.878434343434343, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 16.755555555555556, "Current_PP_Share": 0.3299006987863185, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.5123153460347285, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 897.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2719.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 4, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.972354497354498, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 1.912492310779232, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 1.6403832232905424, "Other_State_SOG": 0.255988455988456, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9908219918860978, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 2.6363636363636362, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-jersey-devils/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:46.404404+00:00", "priorGP": 77, "currentTotalSOG": 26.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.661111111111111, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.89 SOG/game in 9 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 9 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.288, "currentIXG": 0.1431111111111111, "priorTOI": 21.54004329004329, "priorPPTOI": 1.9870129870129871, "deploymentChange": -0.3067099567099554, "ppTOIChange": -0.32590187590187614, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021050", "date": "20260314", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 20.616666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020191", "date": "20251101", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 19.45 }, { "gameId": "2024020602", "date": "20250101", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 8.0, "toi": 21.683333333333334 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 2.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "LAK", "games": 7, "sogAllowedTotal": 193.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.571428571428573, "mostAllowedRank": 14, "fiveSogAllowed60": 25.227874154660395, "pkSogAllowed60": 57.61396702230844, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 39.142857142857146, "positionUnassignedSOG": 1.0, "positionTotals": { "C": 86.0, "D": 47.0, "R": 28.0, "L": 31.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 12.285714285714286, "L": 4.428571428571429, "R": 4.0, "D": 6.714285714285714 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 27.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 29.5, "positionSourceDifference": 1.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.571428571428573, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.714285714285714, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8476341", "team": "LAK", "name": "Anton Forsberg", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 3, "savePct": 0.8833333333333333, "gaa": 2.6313041662315966, "gsax": -2.1049999999999995, "goalsAllowed": 7.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.8950000000000005, "shotsAgainst": 60.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0218332511814823, "factor": 1.0218332511814823, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T19:00:24.293Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.05392580007485154, "goalHistoryGoals": 22.0, "goalHistoryShots": 415.0, "goalExpected": 0.15133696187727907, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.1546411397789881, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.14044198842601577, "goalProbability": 0.1432774340250646, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.28354455990488303, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 9, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 2.806392518371842, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 9.151193633952255, "Current_PP_SOG60": 4.013377926421405, "Current_5v5_Min": 16.755555555555556, "Current_PP_Share": 0.3299006987863185, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.972354497354498, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.6403832232905424, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.2222222222222222, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9946407827573338, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.085978140946376, "Position_Factor": 0.98999544178116, "Input_GP": 9, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 897.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2719.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.809326254996658, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 11.764705882352942, "Prior_5v5_Min": 17.165151515151514, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.5123153460347285, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9645698136906008, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.34640522875817, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9645698136906008, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.085978140946376, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 9.151193633952255, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 4.013377926421405, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021050", "date": "20260314", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 20.616666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020191", "date": "20251101", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 19.45 }, { "gameId": "2024020602", "date": "20250101", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 8.0, "toi": 21.683333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020461", "date": "20241212", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 17.616666666666667 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 231, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 40, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476341", "goalieName": "Anton Forsberg", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8476462", "goals": 0, "sog": 15, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 7, "recordedAttempts": 26, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021050", "date": "20260314", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 3 }, { "gameId": "2024020737", "date": "20250119", "season": 2024, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2 }, { "gameId": "2024020062", "date": "20241017", "season": 2024, "goals": 0, "sog": 4, "attempts": 6 }, { "gameId": "2022020274", "date": "20221119", "season": 2022, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2022020213", "date": "20221110", "season": 2022, "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 5 }, { "gameId": "2021021274", "date": "20220426", "season": 2021, "goals": 0, "sog": 4, "attempts": 5 }, { "gameId": "2021020234", "date": "20211206", "season": 2021, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 4 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476341", "goalieName": "Anton Forsberg", "opponent": "NJD", "games": 5, "availableGames": 11, "shotsAgainst": 115.0, "goalsAgainst": 15.0, "savePct": 0.8695652173913043, "gaa": 4.18280402788536, "gsax": -4.362, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021050", "date": "20260314", "goalieTeam": "LAK", "opponent": "NJD", "shotsAgainst": 27.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3466.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.948 }, { "gameId": "2024020737", "date": "20250119", "goalieTeam": "OTT", "opponent": "NJD", "shotsAgainst": 26.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.295 }, { "gameId": "2024020062", "date": "20241017", "goalieTeam": "OTT", "opponent": "NJD", "shotsAgainst": 35.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3470.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.298 }, { "gameId": "2023021224", "date": "20240406", "goalieTeam": "OTT", "opponent": "NJD", "shotsAgainst": 9.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 994.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 0.874 }, { "gameId": "2022020274", "date": "20221119", "goalieTeam": "OTT", "opponent": "NJD", "shotsAgainst": 18.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 1380.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.223 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 2.806392518371842, "adjustedSOG": 2.806392518371842, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 2.806392518371842, "adjustedSOG": 2.806392518371842, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.05392580007485154, "goalHistoryGoals": 22.0, "goalHistoryShots": 415.0, "goalExpected": 0.15133696187727907, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.15133696187727907, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.14044198842601577, "goalProbability": 0.14044198842601577, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05771787038548541, "modelSOG": 2.806392518371842, "historyGames": 150, "seasonGames": { "2024": 64, "2025": 77, "2026": 9 }, "historyGoals": 22.0, "historyShots": 415.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.05301204819277108, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.05392580007485154, "goalieFactor": 1.0218332511814823, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 51.91622213926937, "btb": { "id": "8476462", "name": "Dougie Hamilton", "score": 51.91622213926937, "components": { "Goal model": 52.093023255813954, "SOG model": 92.09302325581395, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 45.348837209302324, "Goalie": 76.61764705882354, "Team H2H": 38.698246922790005, "Goalie H2H": 38.91580860084797 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": 15, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 188 } }, { "id": "8482659", "name": "Josh Doan", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "WSH", "position": "R", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 1.5, "priorSOG": 2.073170731707317, "currentTOI": 15.975, "currentFiveTOI": 14.01, "ppShare": 0.30025125628140703, "rate": 2.1820819736409596, "fifty": 1.9624186046635925, "inputs": { "Player": "Josh Doan", "Player_ID": "8482659", "Team": "BUF", "Opponent": "WSH", "Position": "R", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 2.1137218921707848, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.862377373936427, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 10, "Prior_GP": 82, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 6.423982869379015, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 7.6208328620138, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 10.365206849522655, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 13.580353658536584, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 14.01, "Current_PP_Share": 0.30025125628140703, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.5596878843136424, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 956.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3184.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 5, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.493148148148148, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 2.0768617822724877, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 1.649324632421366, "Other_State_SOG": 0.010975609756097562, "Environment_Proxy": 1.0834850655013406, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 2.073170731707317, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/buffalo-sabres/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:46.428877+00:00", "priorGP": 82, "currentTotalSOG": 15.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.5933333333333333, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.50 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.924, "currentIXG": 0.1924, "priorTOI": 15.866463414634145, "priorPPTOI": 2.682520325203252, "deploymentChange": 0.10853658536585442, "ppTOIChange": -1.0891869918699189, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021213", "date": "20260404", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 12.95 }, { "gameId": "2025021028", "date": "20260312", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 14.7 }, { "gameId": "2025020186", "date": "20251101", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 15.533333333333333 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 2.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "WSH", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 263.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 29.22222222222222, "mostAllowedRank": 7, "fiveSogAllowed60": 28.540383918869974, "pkSogAllowed60": 52.820345614607106, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.111111111111114, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "L": 48.0, "D": 68.0, "C": 72.0, "R": 75.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 8.0, "L": 5.333333333333333, "R": 8.333333333333334, "D": 7.555555555555555 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 29.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27.5, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 29.22222222222222, "oppPosSogAllowed": 8.333333333333334, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8479292", "team": "WSH", "name": "Charlie Lindgren", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 2, "savePct": 0.896551724137931, "gaa": 3.061224489795918, "gsax": 0.2989999999999995, "goalsAllowed": 6.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 6.2989999999999995, "shotsAgainst": 58.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.99868053226692, "factor": 0.99868053226692, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T14:45:41.433Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.12292649151397952, "goalHistoryGoals": 33.0, "goalHistoryShots": 273.0, "goalExpected": 0.20780723390438238, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.20753303896454495, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.1876363822174849, "goalProbability": 0.1874136056834775, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.02227765340074017, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.6905, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 6.423982869379015, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 14.01, "Current_PP_Share": 0.30025125628140703, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.493148148148148, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.649324632421366, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.053751909733539, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0558974457897532, "Position_Factor": 1.05, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 956.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3184.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 7.6208328620138, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 10.365206849522655, "Prior_5v5_Min": 12.577845528455287, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.5596878843136424, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.15, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.382352941176471, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0558974457897532, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 6.1160480920020905, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 2.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 2.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021213", "date": "20260404", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 12.95 }, { "gameId": "2025021028", "date": "20260312", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 14.7 }, { "gameId": "2025020186", "date": "20251101", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 15.533333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020890", "date": "20250209", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 14.766666666666667 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff latest reported chart; October 21 final lineup pending", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 195, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 51, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479292", "goalieName": "Charlie Lindgren", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8482659", "goals": 0, "sog": 5, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 2, "recordedAttempts": 8, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021028", "date": "20260312", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 5 }, { "gameId": "2025020186", "date": "20251101", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 3 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479292", "goalieName": "Charlie Lindgren", "opponent": "BUF", "games": 5, "availableGames": 8, "shotsAgainst": 128.0, "goalsAgainst": 16.0, "savePct": 0.875, "gaa": 3.275891486094523, "gsax": -2.283, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021028", "date": "20260312", "goalieTeam": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.161 }, { "gameId": "2025020186", "date": "20251101", "goalieTeam": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3892.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.677 }, { "gameId": "2024020637", "date": "20250106", "goalieTeam": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "shotsAgainst": 27.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3900.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.647 }, { "gameId": "2023021255", "date": "20240411", "goalieTeam": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "shotsAgainst": 16.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3458.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.149 }, { "gameId": "2023021189", "date": "20240402", "goalieTeam": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "shotsAgainst": 31.0, "goalsAgainst": 6.0, "seconds": 2733.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.083 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.6905, "adjustedSOG": 1.6905, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.7249999999999999, "adjustedSOG": 1.6905, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.12292649151397952, "goalHistoryGoals": 33.0, "goalHistoryShots": 273.0, "goalExpected": 0.21204819786161466, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.2117684071066785, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.19107429186243352, "goalProbability": 0.19084793026240163, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.022636160003189354 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1285158133471436, "modelSOG": 1.6905, "historyGames": 143, "seasonGames": { "2024": 51, "2025": 82, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 33.0, "historyShots": 273.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.12087912087912088, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.12292649151397952, "goalieFactor": 0.99868053226692, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 60.1375755039856, "btb": { "id": "8482659", "name": "Josh Doan", "score": 60.1375755039856, "components": { "Goal model": 69.06976744186046, "SOG model": 64.4186046511628, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 60.69767441860465, "Goalie": 87.05882352941177, "Team H2H": 57.12420738530399, "Goalie H2H": 47.58410880458125 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": 5, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 88 } }, { "id": "8483478", "name": "Rieger Lorenz", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "SEA", "position": "L", "currentGP": 5, "currentSOG": 0.4, "priorSOG": null, "currentTOI": 8.646666666666667, "currentFiveTOI": 8.596666666666668, "ppShare": 0.0017064846416382253, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/minnesota-wild/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:46.431867+00:00", "priorGP": null, "currentTotalSOG": 2.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.006666666666666666, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.40 SOG/game in 5 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 5 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.5449999999999999, "currentIXG": 0.10899999999999999, "priorTOI": null, "priorPPTOI": null, "deploymentChange": null, "ppTOIChange": null, "h2hLog": [], "h2hGames": 0, "h2hAvailableGames": 0, "h2hSOG": null, "opponentDefense": { "team": "SEA", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 311.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 31.1, "mostAllowedRank": 3, "fiveSogAllowed60": 29.01212141229316, "pkSogAllowed60": 57.63738641280831, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 48.5, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 101.0, "R": 65.0, "L": 58.0, "D": 87.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.1, "L": 5.8, "R": 6.5, "D": 8.7 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 31.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 3, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 28.666666666666668, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 31.1, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.8, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8478916", "team": "SEA", "name": "Joey Daccord", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 5, "savePct": 0.881578947368421, "gaa": 3.8855909336211547, "gsax": -2.3970000000000002, "goalsAllowed": 18.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 15.603, "shotsAgainst": 152.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.024854248577667, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Likely starter per Daily Faceoff; no Model Goal adjustment until confirmed.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T20:31:39.541Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.12597993368282157, "goalHistoryGoals": 0.0, "goalHistoryShots": 2.0, "goalExpected": 0.05298353279579899, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.05298353279579899, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.05160437022178987, "goalProbability": 0.05160437022178987, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 5, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 0.42057120723047137, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.791779759596743, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 8.596666666666668, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0017064846416382253, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 3.9491666666666667, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.006739192263936291, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0689197555315912, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0920680305430235, "Position_Factor": 1.0004237252952324, "Input_GP": 5, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1172.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": null, "Prior_PP_SOG60": null, "Prior_5v5_Min": null, "Prior_PP_Share": null, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0728857327307941, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.062091503267974, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0728857327307941, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0920680305430235, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 2.791779759596743, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. 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Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.12597993368282157, "goalHistoryGoals": 0.0, "goalHistoryShots": 2.0, "goalExpected": 0.054064829383468356, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.054064829383468356, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.05262931294663034, "goalProbability": 0.05262931294663034, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12849953235647799, "modelSOG": 0.42057120723047137, "historyGames": 5, "seasonGames": { "2026": 5 }, "historyGoals": 0.0, "historyShots": 2.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.0, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.12597993368282157, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8479542", "name": "Brandon Hagel", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "UTA", "position": "L", "currentGP": 9, "currentSOG": 4.555555555555555, "priorSOG": 3.0140845070422535, "currentTOI": 21.538888888888888, "currentFiveTOI": 13.764814814814816, "ppShare": 0.6890326975476839, "rate": 2.7930670527268697, "fifty": 3.1392715948130565, "inputs": { "Player": "Brandon Hagel", "Player_ID": "8479542", "Team": "TBL", "Opponent": "UTA", "Position": "L", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 3.0291740985061524, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 3.5345653664652468, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 9, "Prior_GP": 71, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 13.561146239741692, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 8.682436897052993, "Current_PP_SOG60": 10.677212061295107, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 11.746174617461746, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 13.898468961919665, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 13.764814814814816, "Current_PP_Share": 0.6890326975476839, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.4118525952699022, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2023.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2936.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 5, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.626018518518518, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 2.802805932889792, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 3.187478018720355, "Other_State_SOG": 0.5721439749608763, "Environment_Proxy": 0.85, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 3.0140845070422535, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:46.453230+00:00", "priorGP": 71.0, "currentTotalSOG": 41.0, "currentPPTOI": 3.7462962962962965, "volumeNote": "Observed 4.56 SOG/game in 9 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 9 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 7.298, "currentIXG": 0.8108888888888889, "priorTOI": 19.760093896713617, "priorPPTOI": 2.0863849765258213, "deploymentChange": 1.7787949921752713, "ppTOIChange": 1.6599113197704751, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020825", "date": "20260126", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 12.0, "toi": 21.766666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020194", "date": "20251102", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 23.133333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024021145", "date": "20250327", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 17.483333333333334 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 2.6666666666666665, "opponentDefense": { "team": "UTA", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 225.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 22.5, "mostAllowedRank": 30, "fiveSogAllowed60": 21.06050814598143, "pkSogAllowed60": 53.47313237221494, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 35.6, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 58.0, "C": 87.0, "R": 52.0, "L": 28.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 8.7, "L": 2.8, "R": 5.2, "D": 5.8 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 22.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 20.25, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 22.5, "oppPosSogAllowed": 2.8, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8478872", "team": "UTA", "name": "Karel Vejmelka", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 8, "savePct": 0.8793103448275862, "gaa": 2.8927833473635878, "gsax": -2.0919999999999987, "goalsAllowed": 21.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 18.908, "shotsAgainst": 174.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0222659253207917, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Likely starter per Daily Faceoff; no Model Goal adjustment until confirmed.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T17:11:59.953Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.15580697839339508, "goalHistoryGoals": 78.0, "goalHistoryShots": 483.0, "goalExpected": 0.6221431971120867, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.6221431971120867, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.4632072487841448, "goalProbability": 0.4632072487841448, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 9, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 3.9930380752346353, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 13.561146239741692, "Current_PP_SOG60": 10.677212061295107, "Current_5v5_Min": 13.764814814814816, "Current_PP_Share": 0.6890326975476839, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.626018518518518, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 3.187478018720355, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.7777777777777778, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9114659361351877, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.05376529706562, "Position_Factor": 0.958692704970949, "Input_GP": 9, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2023.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2936.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 8.682436897052993, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 11.746174617461746, "Prior_5v5_Min": 14.210328638497652, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.4118525952699022, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.85, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.062091503267974, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.8185631077988029, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.1596756672129862, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.15, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 14.691656590084643, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 9.287925696594428, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 4.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020825", "date": "20260126", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 12.0, "toi": 21.766666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020194", "date": "20251102", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 23.133333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024021145", "date": "20250327", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 17.483333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024021111", "date": "20250322", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 19.4 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "NHL.com projected lineup", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 38, "priorAttempts": 238, "fitPct": -6.04789640670657, "index": 93.95210359329343, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 23.184431667403803, "opponentDeltaPct": -5.689070301576365, "currentAttempts": 10, "priorAttempts": 44 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 26.275984077841663, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.7770704564453013, "currentAttempts": 11, "priorAttempts": 53 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 26.245024325519683, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.327351233427365, "currentAttempts": 8, "priorAttempts": 81 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 10.685537372843875, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.9245535697431251, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 26 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 12.264484741264928, "opponentDeltaPct": -16.04971857561877, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 26 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 1.3445378151260505, "opponentDeltaPct": -20.1847447341527, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 8 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 12, "priorAttempts": 40, "fitPct": 5.322522240432875, "index": 105.32252224043287, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 7.000000000000001, "opponentDeltaPct": 17.305597288121845, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 6.000000000000001, "opponentDeltaPct": -21.464657371094802, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 44.00000000000001, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.5905016923962023, "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 9 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 40.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 9.618907395292567, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 15 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 3.0000000000000004, "opponentDeltaPct": 13.720872325288695, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 37.671799141718395, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -6.04789640670657, "zonePPFit": 5.322522240432875, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478872", "goalieName": "Karel Vejmelka", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8479542", "goals": 2, "sog": 14, "shootingPct": 0.14285714285714285, "gamesWithAttempts": 4, "recordedAttempts": 19, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020825", "date": "20260126", "season": 2025, "goals": 1, "sog": 5, "attempts": 8 }, { "gameId": "2025020194", "date": "20251102", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 3 }, { "gameId": "2024021111", "date": "20250322", "season": 2024, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2022020582", "date": "20221231", "season": 2022, "goals": 1, "sog": 5, "attempts": 7 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478872", "goalieName": "Karel Vejmelka", "opponent": "TBL", "games": 5, "availableGames": 6, "shotsAgainst": 128.0, "goalsAgainst": 18.0, "savePct": 0.859375, "gaa": 4.0538004379105415, "gsax": -5.162, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020825", "date": "20260126", "goalieTeam": "UTA", "opponent": "TBL", "shotsAgainst": 29.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.389 }, { "gameId": "2025020194", "date": "20251102", "goalieTeam": "UTA", "opponent": "TBL", "shotsAgainst": 25.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3527.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.366 }, { "gameId": "2024021145", "date": "20250327", "goalieTeam": "UTA", "opponent": "TBL", "shotsAgainst": 12.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 1754.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.834 }, { "gameId": "2024021111", "date": "20250322", "goalieTeam": "UTA", "opponent": "TBL", "shotsAgainst": 27.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.77 }, { "gameId": "2022020582", "date": "20221231", "goalieTeam": "ARI", "opponent": "TBL", "shotsAgainst": 35.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3504.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.479 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 3.9930380752346353, "adjustedSOG": 3.9930380752346353, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 4.074528648198608, "adjustedSOG": 3.9930380752346353, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.15580697839339508, "goalHistoryGoals": 78.0, "goalHistoryShots": 483.0, "goalExpected": 0.6348399970531498, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.6348399970531498, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.46997971365887425, "goalProbability": 0.46997971365887425, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12835468403349318, "modelSOG": 3.9930380752346353, "historyGames": 162, "seasonGames": { "2024": 82, "2025": 71, "2026": 9 }, "historyGoals": 78.0, "historyShots": 483.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.16149068322981366, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.15580697839339508, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 65.89887494253273, "btb": { "id": "8479542", "name": "Brandon Hagel", "score": 65.89887494253273, "components": { "Goal model": 99.53488372093024, "SOG model": 98.83720930232558, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 99.76744186046511, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 40.48862364789258, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Likely", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": 14, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 26 } }, { "id": "8482859", "name": "Zack Ostapchuk", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "BOS", "position": "C", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 1.0, "priorSOG": 0.7457627118644068, "currentTOI": 10.493333333333334, "currentFiveTOI": 8.59, "ppShare": 0.014448201660006148, "rate": 0.7857157183910104, "fifty": 0.85047653268811, "inputs": { "Player": "Zack Ostapchuk", "Player_ID": "8482859", "Team": "SJS", "Opponent": "BOS", "Position": "C", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 0.777054439905241, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 0.8750773526247266, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 10, "Prior_GP": 59, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 6.286379511059371, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.738819147911516, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 29.26829268292683, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 8.65257627118644, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 8.59, "Current_PP_Share": 0.014448201660006148, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.006914244041965886, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 47.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3253.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 5, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.0425, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.061458062483890595, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.07285505687058101, "Other_State_SOG": 0.040508474576271186, "Environment_Proxy": 1.0253180054689388, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 0.7457627118644068, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:46.475377+00:00", "priorGP": 59, "currentTotalSOG": 10.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.07833333333333334, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.00 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.9390000000000001, "currentIXG": 0.09390000000000001, "priorTOI": 10.094350282485877, "priorPPTOI": 0.03474576271186441, "deploymentChange": 0.3989830508474572, "ppTOIChange": 0.04358757062146893, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2026020105", "date": "20261013", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 10.8 }, { "gameId": "2025021027", "date": "20260312", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 11.383333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020351", "date": "20251123", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 12.083333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024021117", "date": "20250322", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 7.283333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020761", "date": "20250123", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 5.85 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 7, "h2hSOG": 0.4, "opponentDefense": { "team": "BOS", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 280.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 28.0, "mostAllowedRank": 11, "fiveSogAllowed60": 26.539776154413243, "pkSogAllowed60": 48.89206576125804, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 42.4, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 68.0, "R": 50.0, "L": 68.0, "C": 94.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.4, "L": 6.8, "R": 5.0, "D": 6.8 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 26.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 25.0, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 28.0, "oppPosSogAllowed": 9.4, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8480280", "team": "BOS", "name": "Jeremy Swayman", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 8, "savePct": 0.9279279279279279, "gaa": 1.976189659313137, "gsax": 7.695, "goalsAllowed": 16.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 23.695, "shotsAgainst": 222.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9412127550171275, "factor": 0.9412127550171275, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T14:59:19.712Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.09919128082774493, "goalHistoryGoals": 5.0, "goalHistoryShots": 80.0, "goalExpected": 0.09703175475544126, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.09132752521751514, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.09247281262818258, "goalProbability": 0.08728127645946904, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.519153616871354, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 0.9782286703601106, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 6.286379511059371, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 8.59, "Current_PP_Share": 0.014448201660006148, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.0425, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.07285505687058101, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.1, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0194233133624404, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.013580746919003, "Position_Factor": 0.9960977690937871, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 47.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3253.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.738819147911516, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 29.26829268292683, "Prior_5v5_Min": 8.79858757062147, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.006914244041965886, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9979916897506925, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.437908496732026, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9979916897506925, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.013580746919003, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 6.286379511059371, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 4, "sogPerGame": 0.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.5 }, { "season": "2026", "label": "2026–27", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 1.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2026020105", "date": "20261013", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 10.8 }, { "gameId": "2025021027", "date": "20260312", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 11.383333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020351", "date": "20251123", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 12.083333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024021117", "date": "20250322", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 7.283333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020761", "date": "20250123", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 5.85 }, { "gameId": "2024020723", "date": "20250118", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 6.666666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020226", "date": "20241109", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 10.116666666666667 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Reviewed October22 projected lineup and coach reports", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 54, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480280", "goalieName": "Jeremy Swayman", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8482859", "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 2, "recordedAttempts": 3, "log": [ { "gameId": "2026020105", "date": "20261013", "season": 2026, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2 }, { "gameId": "2025021027", "date": "20260312", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480280", "goalieName": "Jeremy Swayman", "opponent": "SJS", "games": 5, "availableGames": 6, "shotsAgainst": 123.0, "goalsAgainst": 9.0, "savePct": 0.926829268292683, "gaa": 2.2632020117351215, "gsax": 2.58, "log": [ { "gameId": "2026020105", "date": "20261013", "goalieTeam": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "shotsAgainst": 38.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.146 }, { "gameId": "2025021027", "date": "20260312", "goalieTeam": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "shotsAgainst": 28.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3406.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.91 }, { "gameId": "2025020351", "date": "20251123", "goalieTeam": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3588.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.577 }, { "gameId": "2023020340", "date": "20231130", "goalieTeam": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "shotsAgainst": 26.0, "goalsAgainst": 0.0, "seconds": 3574.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.886 }, { "gameId": "2022020748", "date": "20230122", "goalieTeam": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "shotsAgainst": 1.0, "goalsAgainst": 0.0, "seconds": 148.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 0.061 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.9782286703601106, "adjustedSOG": 0.9782286703601106, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.9981925207756231, "adjustedSOG": 0.9782286703601106, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.09919128082774493, "goalHistoryGoals": 5.0, "goalHistoryShots": 80.0, "goalExpected": 0.09901199464840946, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.09319135226277055, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.09426815597662862, "goalProbability": 0.08898084196103825, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.5287314015590363 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1285443054899409, "modelSOG": 0.9782286703601106, "historyGames": 125, "seasonGames": { "2024": 56, "2025": 59, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 5.0, "historyShots": 80.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.0625, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.09919128082774493, "goalieFactor": 0.9412127550171275, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 38.30005195209801, "btb": { "id": "8482859", "name": "Zack Ostapchuk", "score": 38.30005195209801, "components": { "Goal model": 34.18604651162791, "SOG model": 26.27906976744186, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 23.023255813953487, "Goalie": 34.26470588235294, "Team H2H": 29.41176470588235, "Goalie H2H": 50.08328285887341 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 7, "goalieH2HShots": 2, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 371 } }, { "id": "8483017", "name": "Frederic Brunet", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "position": "D", "currentGP": 7, "currentSOG": 1.1428571428571428, "priorSOG": null, "currentTOI": 16.952380952380953, "currentFiveTOI": 14.233333333333334, "ppShare": 0.41596638655462187, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/boston-bruins/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:46.478402+00:00", "priorGP": null, "currentTotalSOG": 8.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.8857142857142857, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.14 SOG/game in 7 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 7 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.432, "currentIXG": 0.061714285714285715, "priorTOI": null, "priorPPTOI": null, "deploymentChange": null, "ppTOIChange": null, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2026020105", "date": "20261013", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 15.45 } ], "h2hGames": 1, "h2hAvailableGames": 1, "h2hSOG": 0.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "SJS", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 286.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 28.6, "mostAllowedRank": 10, "fiveSogAllowed60": 25.210423540502322, "pkSogAllowed60": 49.90958408679928, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 47.8, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 86.0, "C": 94.0, "R": 53.0, "L": 53.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.4, "L": 5.3, "R": 5.3, "D": 8.6 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 30.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 29.833333333333332, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 28.6, "oppPosSogAllowed": 8.6, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8477968", "team": "SJS", "name": "Alex Nedeljkovic", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 4, "savePct": 0.9173553719008265, "gaa": 2.372479240806643, "gsax": 4.638, "goalsAllowed": 10.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 14.638, "shotsAgainst": 121.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9618500831522029, "factor": 0.9618500831522029, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T16:06:01.887Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.06151180520260593, "goalHistoryGoals": 1.0, "goalHistoryShots": 10.0, "goalExpected": 0.07616543349398602, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.07325972853951404, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.07333710720198648, "goalProbability": 0.070640582487904, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.26965247140824794, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 7, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.2382246504246521, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.011040481766477, "Current_PP_SOG60": 9.090909090909092, "Current_5v5_Min": 14.233333333333334, "Current_PP_Share": 0.41596638655462187, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.950833333333334, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 2.0593802521008406, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.14285714285714285, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9930883597207428, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0259958714356598, "Position_Factor": 1.0143476407933703, "Input_GP": 7, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 792.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1904.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": null, "Prior_PP_SOG60": null, "Prior_5v5_Min": null, "Prior_PP_Share": null, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.085320284697509, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.34640522875817, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.085320284697509, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0259958714356598, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 3.011040481766477, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 9.090909090909092, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2026", "label": "2026–27", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 0.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2026020105", "date": "20261013", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 15.45 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 1, "playerPriorWeight": 0, "currentSeasonOnly": true }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 1, "playerPriorWeight": 0, "currentSeasonOnly": true }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477968", "goalieName": "Alex Nedeljkovic", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8483017", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477968", "goalieName": "Alex Nedeljkovic", "opponent": "BOS", "games": 5, "availableGames": 8, "shotsAgainst": 134.0, "goalsAgainst": 17.0, "savePct": 0.8731343283582089, "gaa": 3.7850207186591627, "gsax": -3.2609999999999997, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021027", "date": "20260312", "goalieTeam": "SJS", "opponent": "BOS", "shotsAgainst": 41.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.661 }, { "gameId": "2024020952", "date": "20250301", "goalieTeam": "PIT", "opponent": "BOS", "shotsAgainst": 25.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3474.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.566 }, { "gameId": "2023021279", "date": "20240413", "goalieTeam": "PIT", "opponent": "BOS", "shotsAgainst": 16.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 1895.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.22 }, { "gameId": "2023021012", "date": "20240309", "goalieTeam": "PIT", "opponent": "BOS", "shotsAgainst": 23.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.955 }, { "gameId": "2023020589", "date": "20240104", "goalieTeam": "PIT", "opponent": "BOS", "shotsAgainst": 29.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.337 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.2382246504246521, "adjustedSOG": 1.2382246504246521, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.2382246504246521, "adjustedSOG": 1.2382246504246521, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.06151180520260593, "goalHistoryGoals": 1.0, "goalHistoryShots": 10.0, "goalExpected": 0.07616543349398602, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.07616543349398602, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.07333710720198648, "goalProbability": 0.07333710720198648, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05766298572286652, "modelSOG": 1.2382246504246521, "historyGames": 8, "seasonGames": { "2024": 1, "2026": 7 }, "historyGoals": 1.0, "historyShots": 10.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.1, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.06151180520260593, "goalieFactor": 0.9618500831522029, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": 46.57103290479634, "btb": { "id": "8483017", "name": "Frederic Brunet", "score": 46.57103290479634, "components": { "Goal model": 26.511627906976745, "SOG model": 43.25581395348837, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 20.232558139534884, "Goalie": 97.5, "Team H2H": 48.88440541182055, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 1, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 257 } }, { "id": "8481582", "name": "Nicholas Robertson", "team": "PIT", "opponent": "NSH", "position": "R", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 1.9, "priorSOG": 1.6282051282051282, "currentTOI": 12.276666666666667, "currentFiveTOI": 11.39, "ppShare": 0.0010204081632653062, "rate": 1.6877225991904405, "fifty": 1.7214392740682487, "inputs": { "Player": "Nick Robertson", "Player_ID": "8481582", "Team": "PIT", "Opponent": "NSH", "Position": "L", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.7691682971285712, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.7237154099534582, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 10, "Prior_GP": 78, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 8.955223880597014, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 7.758620689655173, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 8.556149732620321, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 11.36376923076923, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 11.39, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0010204081632653062, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.28994270308973047, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 3.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2940.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 6, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.130208333333334, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.4499043759978478, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.0052349064625850355, "Other_State_SOG": 0.03153846153846154, "Environment_Proxy": 1.0738773444064478, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.6282051282051282, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/pittsburgh-penguins/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:46.502673+00:00", "priorGP": 78, "currentTotalSOG": 19.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.005, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.90 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.964, "currentIXG": 0.1964, "priorTOI": 12.660470085470084, "priorPPTOI": 1.078846153846154, "deploymentChange": -0.3838034188034172, "ppTOIChange": -1.0738461538461541, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020558", "date": "20251220", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 12.6 }, { "gameId": "2025020049", "date": "20251014", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 12.433333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024021114", "date": "20250322", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 14.383333333333333 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 0.6666666666666666, "opponentDefense": { "team": "NSH", "games": 8, "sogAllowedTotal": 233.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 29.125, "mostAllowedRank": 8, "fiveSogAllowed60": 26.902173913043477, "pkSogAllowed60": 37.776914108045084, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 45.125, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 82.0, "L": 44.0, "D": 67.0, "R": 40.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.25, "L": 5.5, "R": 5.0, "D": 8.375 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 27.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 3, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 30.0, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 29.125, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.0, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8477424", "team": "NSH", "name": "Juuse Saros", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.9061032863849765, "gaa": 2.8192176670973805, "gsax": 1.6679999999999993, "goalsAllowed": 20.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 21.668, "shotsAgainst": 213.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9906396066739361, "factor": 0.9906396066739361, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T15:56:16.281Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.13365383996726918, "goalHistoryGoals": 35.0, "goalHistoryShots": 258.0, "goalExpected": 0.24676864721097072, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.24445879561253533, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.2186785664840072, "goalProbability": 0.21687174397932868, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.1806822504678507, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.8463266545233756, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 8.955223880597014, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 11.39, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0010204081632653062, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.130208333333334, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.0052349064625850355, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.2, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0235094259979116, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9053307495740243, "Position_Factor": 0.9854098100070098, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 3.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2940.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 7.758620689655173, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 8.556149732620321, "Prior_5v5_Min": 11.302564102564103, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.28994270308973047, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9684274438372799, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.382352941176471, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9684274438372799, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9053307495740243, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 8.955223880597014, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020558", "date": "20251220", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 12.6 }, { "gameId": "2025020049", "date": "20251014", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 12.433333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024021114", "date": "20250322", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 14.383333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020406", "date": "20241204", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 12.383333333333333 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-19T20:27:28.451Z", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 167, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. 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Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477424", "goalieName": "Juuse Saros", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8481582", "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 3, "recordedAttempts": 3, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020558", "date": "20251220", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2024021114", "date": "20250322", "season": 2024, "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2024020406", "date": "20241204", "season": 2024, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477424", "goalieName": "Juuse Saros", "opponent": "PIT", "games": 5, "availableGames": 13, "shotsAgainst": 131.0, "goalsAgainst": 15.0, "savePct": 0.8854961832061069, "gaa": 3.034219250435467, "gsax": -2.5649999999999995, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020296", "date": "20251116", "goalieTeam": "NSH", "opponent": "PIT", "shotsAgainst": 21.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3562.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.064 }, { "gameId": "2025020281", "date": "20251114", "goalieTeam": "NSH", "opponent": "PIT", "shotsAgainst": 17.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3637.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.622 }, { "gameId": "2024020830", "date": "20250201", "goalieTeam": "NSH", "opponent": "PIT", "shotsAgainst": 35.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3527.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.258 }, { "gameId": "2024020515", "date": "20241219", "goalieTeam": "NSH", "opponent": "PIT", "shotsAgainst": 20.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3657.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.863 }, { "gameId": "2023021289", "date": "20240415", "goalieTeam": "NSH", "opponent": "PIT", "shotsAgainst": 38.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3414.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.628 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.8463266545233756, "adjustedSOG": 1.8463266545233756, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.8463266545233756, "adjustedSOG": 1.8463266545233756, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.13365383996726918, "goalHistoryGoals": 35.0, "goalHistoryShots": 258.0, "goalExpected": 0.24676864721097072, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.24445879561253533, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.2186785664840072, "goalProbability": 0.21687174397932868, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.1806822504678507 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1284807470828237, "modelSOG": 1.8463266545233756, "historyGames": 157, "seasonGames": { "2024": 69, "2025": 78, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 35.0, "historyShots": 258.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.13565891472868216, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.13365383996726918, "goalieFactor": 0.9906396066739361, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 58.811932982177105, "btb": { "id": "8481582", "name": "Nicholas Robertson", "score": 58.811932982177105, "components": { "Goal model": 76.74418604651163, "SOG model": 69.76744186046511, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 62.325581395348834, "Goalie": 81.91176470588235, "Team H2H": 37.05706825811264, "Goalie H2H": 49.92428831011508 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": 2, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 99 } }, { "id": "8482660", "name": "Kent Johnson", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "VGK", "position": "R", "currentGP": 8, "currentSOG": 2.5, "priorSOG": 1.5, "currentTOI": 17.422916666666666, "currentFiveTOI": 13.352083333333333, "ppShare": 0.6970937372083504, "rate": 1.6486902862597987, "fifty": 1.8252132944109172, "inputs": { "Player": "Kent Johnson", "Player_ID": "8482660", "Team": "CBJ", "Opponent": "VGK", "Position": "C", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.6632176924333866, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 2.0557094000703833, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 8, "Prior_GP": 76, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 6.7405211421438604, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.247710137102528, "Current_PP_SOG60": 12.68349970640047, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 10.118043844856661, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 12.758234649122807, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 13.352083333333333, "Current_PP_Share": 0.6970937372083504, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.36027354294421726, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1703.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2443.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 4, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.052367424242425, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 2.4154041973876352, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 2.824879952306529, "Other_State_SOG": 0.060526315789473685, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9217353117054976, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.5, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:46.532247+00:00", "priorGP": 76, "currentTotalSOG": 20.0, "currentPPTOI": 3.5479166666666666, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.50 SOG/game in 8 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 8 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 2.003, "currentIXG": 0.250375, "priorTOI": 13.240570175438597, "priorPPTOI": 1.5605263157894735, "deploymentChange": 4.182346491228069, "ppTOIChange": 1.987390350877193, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020692", "date": "20260108", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 8.0, "toi": 16.683333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020502", "date": "20251213", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 9.916666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024021045", "date": "20250313", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 18.116666666666667 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 1.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "VGK", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 275.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 25.0, "mostAllowedRank": 27, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.585792714368043, "pkSogAllowed60": 47.03517587939699, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 38.72727272727273, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 59.0, "C": 80.0, "R": 61.0, "L": 75.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.2727272727272725, "L": 6.818181818181818, "R": 5.545454545454546, "D": 5.363636363636363 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 26.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 25.75, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 25.0, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.545454545454546, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8479394", "team": "VGK", "name": "Carter Hart", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.8876404494382022, "gaa": 2.8716148845371516, "gsax": -1.5090000000000003, "goalsAllowed": 20.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 18.491, "shotsAgainst": 178.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.017200797231895, "factor": 1.017200797231895, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T22:33:02.238Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.13402789916966698, "goalHistoryGoals": 35.0, "goalHistoryShots": 257.0, "goalExpected": 0.3174303771165242, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.32289043266854955, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.2719826343219045, "goalProbability": 0.27594681740300986, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.39641830811053547, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 8, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 2.368390305921953, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 6.7405211421438604, "Current_PP_SOG60": 12.68349970640047, "Current_5v5_Min": 13.352083333333333, "Current_PP_Share": 0.6970937372083504, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.052367424242425, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 2.824879952306529, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.25, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9589471960166247, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9956874166464801, "Position_Factor": 1.016031746031746, "Input_GP": 8, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1703.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2443.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.247710137102528, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 10.118043844856661, "Prior_5v5_Min": 11.372587719298247, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.36027354294421726, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0158730158730158, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.382352941176471, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0158730158730158, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9956874166464801, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 7.4048680150839905, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 17.26618705035971, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020692", "date": "20260108", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 8.0, "toi": 16.683333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020502", "date": "20251213", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 9.916666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024021045", "date": "20250313", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 18.116666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020820", "date": "20250130", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 16.65 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "NHL.com October 20 game-specific projected lineup", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 132, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 28, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. 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Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.13402789916966698, "goalHistoryGoals": 35.0, "goalHistoryShots": 257.0, "goalExpected": 0.3174303771165242, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.3174303771165242, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.2719826343219045, "goalProbability": 0.2719826343219045, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1284796000357111, "modelSOG": 2.368390305921953, "historyGames": 152, "seasonGames": { "2024": 68, "2025": 76, "2026": 8 }, "historyGoals": 35.0, "historyShots": 257.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.13618677042801555, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.13402789916966698, "goalieFactor": 1.017200797231895, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 57.740686509514255, "btb": { "id": "8482660", "name": "Kent Johnson", "score": 57.740686509514255, "components": { "Goal model": 86.97674418604652, "SOG model": 83.72093023255815, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 74.88372093023256, "Goalie": 18.38235294117647, "Team H2H": 43.92017903767251, "Goalie H2H": 52.44656917885264 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": 6, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 113 } }, { "id": "8485702", "name": "Maxim Shabanov", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "SEA", "position": "R", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 1.1, "priorSOG": 1.2727272727272727, "currentTOI": 14.951666666666668, "currentFiveTOI": 11.396666666666667, "ppShare": 0.6836902800658978, "rate": 1.4571736456518558, "fifty": 1.3728059909260724, "inputs": { "Player": "Maxim Shabanov", "Player_ID": "8485702", "Team": "MIN", "Opponent": "SEA", "Position": "R", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.4775678044149425, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.3868386685639347, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 10, "Prior_GP": 44, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.211757823925124, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.4863813229571985, "Current_PP_SOG60": 4.337349397590361, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 5.341246290801187, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 11.48221212121212, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 11.396666666666667, "Current_PP_Share": 0.6836902800658978, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.3342030196066418, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1660.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2428.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 5, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 3.9491666666666667, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 2.2859518325311377, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 2.7000068643602417, "Other_State_SOG": 0.07136363636363637, "Environment_Proxy": 1.1489692159321772, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.2727272727272727, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/minnesota-wild/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:46.556692+00:00", "priorGP": 44, "currentTotalSOG": 11.0, "currentPPTOI": 2.7666666666666666, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.10 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. 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Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478916", "goalieName": "Joey Daccord", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8485702", "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 4, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020349", "date": "20251123", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 4 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478916", "goalieName": "Joey Daccord", "opponent": "MIN", "games": 5, "availableGames": 6, "shotsAgainst": 123.0, "goalsAgainst": 19.0, "savePct": 0.8455284552845528, "gaa": 4.3387250237868695, "gsax": -6.912000000000001, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021240", "date": "20260407", "goalieTeam": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 28.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3488.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.569 }, { "gameId": "2024020982", "date": "20250304", "goalieTeam": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 20.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3463.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.635 }, { "gameId": "2024020033", "date": "20241012", "goalieTeam": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 38.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3885.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.839 }, { "gameId": "2023021307", "date": "20240418", "goalieTeam": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.121 }, { "gameId": "2023020913", "date": "20240224", "goalieTeam": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 13.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 1329.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.924 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.1722870532656258, "adjustedSOG": 1.1722870532656258, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.1962112788424752, "adjustedSOG": 1.1722870532656258, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.11886921344476822, "goalHistoryGoals": 7.0, "goalHistoryShots": 67.0, "goalExpected": 0.14219269382976535, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.14219269382976535, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.13254591267003435, "goalProbability": 0.13254591267003435, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12851158645276292, "modelSOG": 1.1722870532656258, "historyGames": 54, "seasonGames": { "2025": 44, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 7.0, "historyShots": 67.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.1044776119402985, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.11886921344476822, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 50.41166737506831, "btb": { "id": "8485702", "name": "Maxim Shabanov", "score": 50.41166737506831, "components": { "Goal model": 48.604651162790695, "SOG model": 39.30232558139535, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 62.093023255813954, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 50.10879025239338, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Likely", "h2hGames": 2, "goalieH2HShots": 1, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 199 } }, { "id": "8476853", "name": "Morgan Rielly", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "EDM", "position": "D", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 1.2727272727272727, "priorSOG": 1.8076923076923077, "currentTOI": 19.683333333333334, "currentFiveTOI": 16.69242424242424, "ppShare": 0.22419500451399338, "rate": 1.5941337915039762, "fifty": 1.345966100095412, "inputs": { "Player": "Morgan Rielly", "Player_ID": "8476853", "Team": "TOR", "Opponent": "EDM", "Position": "D", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.4565219511980845, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.100402826598933, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 11, "Prior_GP": 78, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.26767722610511, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.583685312373746, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 10.007668711656441, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 16.920658508158507, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 16.69242424242424, "Current_PP_Share": 0.22419500451399338, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.5990656127217405, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 745.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3323.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 6, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.3053872053872055, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 1.44943524002228, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.9652463039462739, "Other_State_SOG": 0.1286713286713287, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9716922687020597, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.8076923076923077, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/toronto-maple-leafs/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:46.580876+00:00", "priorGP": 78, "currentTotalSOG": 14.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.1287878787878787, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.27 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.27, "currentIXG": 0.11545454545454546, "priorTOI": 21.136752136752136, "priorPPTOI": 2.229059829059829, "deploymentChange": -1.4534188034188027, "ppTOIChange": -1.1002719502719505, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020499", "date": "20251213", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 21.416666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2024020833", "date": "20250201", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 22.183333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020274", "date": "20241116", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 20.216666666666665 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 3, "h2hSOG": 2.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "EDM", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 239.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 26.555555555555557, "mostAllowedRank": 18, "fiveSogAllowed60": 25.09786377362711, "pkSogAllowed60": 57.79388917659244, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 40.111111111111114, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 74.0, "C": 64.0, "L": 57.0, "R": 44.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.111111111111111, "L": 6.333333333333333, "R": 4.888888888888889, "D": 8.222222222222221 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 28.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 24.5, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 26.555555555555557, "oppPosSogAllowed": 8.222222222222221, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8477465", "team": "EDM", "name": "Tristan Jarry", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 3, "savePct": 0.8732394366197183, "gaa": 2.974387221151198, "gsax": -2.739, "goalsAllowed": 9.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 6.261, "shotsAgainst": 71.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0280169850571896, "factor": 1.0280169850571896, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-23T18:50:20.460Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.06237035667530981, "goalHistoryGoals": 18.0, "goalHistoryShots": 281.0, "goalExpected": 0.08093074425446016, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.0831981797069046, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.07774243913212206, "goalProbability": 0.07983122962818862, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.2088790496066556, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.2975834766469716, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.26767722610511, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 16.69242424242424, "Current_PP_Share": 0.22419500451399338, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.3053872053872055, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.9652463039462739, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.36363636363636365, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9913228889134689, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0841268017286898, "Position_Factor": 1.0175103897192914, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 745.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3323.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.583685312373746, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 10.007668711656441, "Prior_5v5_Min": 17.453205128205127, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.5990656127217405, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0564712492976214, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.34640522875817, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0564712492976214, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0841268017286898, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 3.26767722610511, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 3.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020499", "date": "20251213", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 21.416666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2024020833", "date": "20250201", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 22.183333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020274", "date": "20241116", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 20.216666666666665 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 174, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 38, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477465", "goalieName": "Tristan Jarry", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8476853", "goals": 1, "sog": 12, "shootingPct": 0.08333333333333333, "gamesWithAttempts": 9, "recordedAttempts": 18, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020499", "date": "20251213", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 4 }, { "gameId": "2025020396", "date": "20251129", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2025020199", "date": "20251103", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2024020433", "date": "20241207", "season": 2024, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2023020466", "date": "20231216", "season": 2023, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2 }, { "gameId": "2023020311", "date": "20231125", "season": 2023, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2 }, { "gameId": "2021020542", "date": "20220217", "season": 2021, "goals": 1, "sog": 3, "attempts": 4 }, { "gameId": "2021020261", "date": "20211120", "season": 2021, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2021020071", "date": "20211023", "season": 2021, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477465", "goalieName": "Tristan Jarry", "opponent": "TOR", "games": 5, "availableGames": 13, "shotsAgainst": 102.0, "goalsAgainst": 16.0, "savePct": 0.8431372549019608, "gaa": 4.100811618966254, "gsax": -2.944, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020499", "date": "20251213", "goalieTeam": "EDM", "opponent": "TOR", "shotsAgainst": 28.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.854 }, { "gameId": "2025020396", "date": "20251129", "goalieTeam": "PIT", "opponent": "TOR", "shotsAgainst": 13.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 2107.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.626 }, { "gameId": "2025020199", "date": "20251103", "goalieTeam": "PIT", "opponent": "TOR", "shotsAgainst": 20.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3452.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.296 }, { "gameId": "2024020433", "date": "20241207", "goalieTeam": "PIT", "opponent": "TOR", "shotsAgainst": 27.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3571.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.846 }, { "gameId": "2023020466", "date": "20231216", "goalieTeam": "PIT", "opponent": "TOR", "shotsAgainst": 14.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 1316.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.434 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.2975834766469716, "adjustedSOG": 1.2975834766469716, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.3240647720887466, "adjustedSOG": 1.2975834766469716, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.06237035667530981, "goalHistoryGoals": 18.0, "goalHistoryShots": 281.0, "goalExpected": 0.08258239209638792, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.0848961017417394, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.0792644266025796, "goalProbability": 0.08139227881423038, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.21278522116507798 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05763105893293037, "modelSOG": 1.2975834766469716, "historyGames": 171, "seasonGames": { "2024": 82, "2025": 78, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 18.0, "historyShots": 281.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.06405693950177936, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.06237035667530981, "goalieFactor": 1.0280169850571896, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 48.54465246885816, "btb": { "id": "8476853", "name": "Morgan Rielly", "score": 48.54465246885816, "components": { "Goal model": 28.837209302325583, "SOG model": 47.674418604651166, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 30.697674418604652, "Goalie": 92.20588235294117, "Team H2H": 50.2108857200241, "Goalie H2H": 55.715011430022855 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 3, "goalieH2HShots": 12, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 221 } }, { "id": "8479323", "name": "Adam Fox", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "OTT", "position": "D", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 1.1818181818181819, "priorSOG": 1.6545454545454545, "currentTOI": 21.516666666666666, "currentFiveTOI": 16.19393939393939, "ppShare": 0.7408111533586819, "rate": 1.534615988314382, "fifty": 1.4075509058716813, "inputs": { "Player": "Adam Fox", "Player_ID": "8479323", "Team": "NYR", "Opponent": "OTT", "Position": "D", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.3648752958915575, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.1264064140198444, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 11, "Prior_GP": 55, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.694610778443114, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.509170958361087, "Current_PP_SOG60": 7.698887938408896, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 7.776838546069316, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 16.93148484848485, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 16.19393939393939, "Current_PP_Share": 0.7408111533586819, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.8805323613449021, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2338.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3156.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 7, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.145909090909091, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 4.027844639026017, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 3.8121468487152903, "Other_State_SOG": 0.13090909090909092, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9343896732646498, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.6545454545454545, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-york-rangers/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:46.610029+00:00", "priorGP": 55, "currentTotalSOG": 13.0, "currentPPTOI": 3.5424242424242425, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.18 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.236, "currentIXG": 0.11236363636363636, "priorTOI": 23.62878787878788, "priorPPTOI": 3.226363636363636, "deploymentChange": -2.112121212121213, "ppTOIChange": 0.3160606060606064, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021119", "date": "20260323", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 22.266666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020750", "date": "20250121", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 20.483333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020170", "date": "20241101", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 18.883333333333333 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 3, "h2hSOG": 0.3333333333333333, "opponentDefense": { "team": "OTT", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 255.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 25.5, "mostAllowedRank": 25, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.477120373069077, "pkSogAllowed60": 46.82395644283122, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 38.7, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 67.0, "C": 98.0, "R": 48.0, "L": 42.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.8, "L": 4.2, "R": 4.8, "D": 6.7 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 24.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 22.6, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 25.5, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.7, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8477992", "team": "OTT", "name": "Jonas Johansson", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 0, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "goalsAllowed": null, "xGoalsAgainst": null, "shotsAgainst": null, "scenarioFactor": 1, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; no matching goalie statistics in this snapshot, so the goalie factor remains neutral.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T15:15:50.280Z", "idResolution": "Exact goalie name mapped to one unique MoneyPuck player ID" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.0730240759950297, "goalHistoryGoals": 19.0, "goalHistoryShots": 239.0, "goalExpected": 0.08448225582421283, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.08448225582421283, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.08101203808389924, "goalProbability": 0.08101203808389924, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.156909617452236, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.694610778443114, "Current_PP_SOG60": 7.698887938408896, "Current_5v5_Min": 16.19393939393939, "Current_PP_Share": 0.7408111533586819, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.145909090909091, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 3.8121468487152903, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9604171757553249, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9920036605974645, "Position_Factor": 0.9967592108017584, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2338.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3156.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.509170958361087, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 7.776838546069316, "Prior_5v5_Min": 18.652424242424246, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.8805323613449021, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9560053380782918, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.34640522875817, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9560053380782918, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9920036605974645, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 2.694610778443114, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 7.698887938408896, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 0.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021119", "date": "20260323", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 22.266666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020750", "date": "20250121", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 20.483333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020170", "date": "20241101", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 18.883333333333333 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 108, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 35, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477992", "goalieName": "Jonas Johansson", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8479323", "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 2, "recordedAttempts": 6, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020391", "date": "20251129", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 4 }, { "gameId": "2024021310", "date": "20250417", "season": 2024, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477992", "goalieName": "Jonas Johansson", "opponent": "NYR", "games": 4, "availableGames": 4, "shotsAgainst": 43.0, "goalsAgainst": 6.0, "savePct": 0.8604651162790697, "gaa": 2.615328732292045, "gsax": -1.567, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020391", "date": "20251129", "goalieTeam": "TBL", "opponent": "NYR", "shotsAgainst": 13.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.688 }, { "gameId": "2025020265", "date": "20251112", "goalieTeam": "TBL", "opponent": "NYR", "shotsAgainst": 7.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 993.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 0.748 }, { "gameId": "2024021310", "date": "20250417", "goalieTeam": "TBL", "opponent": "NYR", "shotsAgainst": 22.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3573.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.983 }, { "gameId": "2021020399", "date": "20211208", "goalieTeam": "COL", "opponent": "NYR", "shotsAgainst": 1.0, "goalsAgainst": 0.0, "seconds": 93.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 0.014 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.156909617452236, "adjustedSOG": 1.156909617452236, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.180520017808404, "adjustedSOG": 1.156909617452236, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.0730240759950297, "goalHistoryGoals": 19.0, "goalHistoryShots": 239.0, "goalExpected": 0.08620638349409472, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.08620638349409472, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.0825951255427221, "goalProbability": 0.0825951255427221, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.057551617623150704, "modelSOG": 1.156909617452236, "historyGames": 140, "seasonGames": { "2024": 74, "2025": 55, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 19.0, "historyShots": 239.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.0794979079497908, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.0730240759950297, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 42.10231343736717, "btb": { "id": "8479323", "name": "Adam Fox", "score": 42.10231343736717, "components": { "Goal model": 30.697674418604652, "SOG model": 38.604651162790695, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 28.837209302325583, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 40.992167101827675, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 3, "goalieH2HShots": 3, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 318 } }, { "id": "8477478", "name": "William Carrier", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "STL", "position": "L", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 1.7272727272727273, "priorSOG": 1.1428571428571428, "currentTOI": 12.545454545454545, "currentFiveTOI": 12.406060606060606, "ppShare": 0.0, "rate": 1.2921390691432775, "fifty": 1.475632585457405, "inputs": { "Player": "William Carrier", "Player_ID": "8477478", "Team": "CAR", "Opponent": "STL", "Position": "L", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.277557499788548, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.3191341173605997, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 11, "Prior_GP": 70, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 8.353688324377137, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.480356419603078, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 11.858670995670995, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 12.406060606060606, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.007274481225004238, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 4186.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 7, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 6.0017676767676775, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.013097923884445131, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.0, "Other_State_SOG": 0.0, "Environment_Proxy": 1.00049372648272, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.1428571428571428, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:46.642595+00:00", "priorGP": 70, "currentTotalSOG": 19.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.0, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.73 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 3.088, "currentIXG": 0.2807272727272727, "priorTOI": 10.753809523809524, "priorPPTOI": 0.03214285714285714, "deploymentChange": 1.7916450216450208, "ppTOIChange": -0.03214285714285714, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021033", "date": "20260312", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "STL", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 10.9 }, { "gameId": "2024020284", "date": "20241117", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "STL", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 13.683333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020084", "date": "20241019", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "STL", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 8.616666666666667 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 3, "h2hSOG": 1.3333333333333333, "opponentDefense": { "team": "STL", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 246.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.333333333333332, "mostAllowedRank": 15, "fiveSogAllowed60": 24.991224991224993, "pkSogAllowed60": 45.92737978410206, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 41.333333333333336, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 29.0, "L": 56.0, "D": 69.0, "C": 92.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.222222222222221, "L": 6.222222222222222, "R": 3.2222222222222223, "D": 7.666666666666667 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 27.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 3, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27.666666666666668, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.333333333333332, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.222222222222222, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8480981", "team": "STL", "name": "Joel Hofer", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 6, "savePct": 0.9192546583850931, "gaa": 2.1949160491511117, "gsax": 2.83, "goalsAllowed": 13.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 15.83, "shotsAgainst": 161.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9785370006226618, "factor": 0.9785370006226618, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T15:44:23.131Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.09658607535881884, "goalHistoryGoals": 11.0, "goalHistoryShots": 147.0, "goalExpected": 0.18124261686505586, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.177352606692134, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.1657670648383544, "goalProbability": 0.1625155701604844, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.3251494677870004, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.8764880568108455, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 8.353688324377137, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 12.406060606060606, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 6.0017676767676775, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.0, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9895702550696535, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9828075032932179, "Position_Factor": 1.0266176530305278, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 4186.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.480356419603078, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 10.581428571428573, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.007274481225004238, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.1085590024124223, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.062091503267974, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.1085590024124223, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9828075032932179, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 8.353688324377137, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 3.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021033", "date": "20260312", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "STL", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 10.9 }, { "gameId": "2024020284", "date": "20241117", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "STL", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 13.683333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020084", "date": "20241019", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "STL", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 8.616666666666667 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Reviewed October22 projected lineup and coach reports", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 127, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480981", "goalieName": "Joel Hofer", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8477478", "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 2, "recordedAttempts": 5, "log": [ { "gameId": "2024020284", "date": "20241117", "season": 2024, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 4 }, { "gameId": "2024020084", "date": "20241019", "season": 2024, "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 1 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480981", "goalieName": "Joel Hofer", "opponent": "CAR", "games": 4, "availableGames": 4, "shotsAgainst": 121.0, "goalsAgainst": 10.0, "savePct": 0.9173553719008265, "gaa": 2.5300442757748263, "gsax": 1.0949999999999998, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020730", "date": "20260113", "goalieTeam": "STL", "opponent": "CAR", "shotsAgainst": 33.0, "goalsAgainst": 0.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.698 }, { "gameId": "2024020284", "date": "20241117", "goalieTeam": "STL", "opponent": "CAR", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.293 }, { "gameId": "2024020084", "date": "20241019", "goalieTeam": "STL", "opponent": "CAR", "shotsAgainst": 40.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.792 }, { "gameId": "2021020216", "date": "20211113", "goalieTeam": "STL", "opponent": "CAR", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3429.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.312 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.8764880568108455, "adjustedSOG": 1.8764880568108455, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.9147837314396383, "adjustedSOG": 1.8764880568108455, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.09658607535881884, "goalHistoryGoals": 11.0, "goalHistoryShots": 147.0, "goalExpected": 0.18494144578066926, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.18097204764503472, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.16884705006056247, "goalProbability": 0.16554131654487914, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.33057335156833345 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12856760613628254, "modelSOG": 1.8764880568108455, "historyGames": 124, "seasonGames": { "2024": 43, "2025": 70, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 11.0, "historyShots": 147.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.07482993197278912, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.09658607535881884, "goalieFactor": 0.9785370006226618, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 57.20654669244161, "btb": { "id": "8477478", "name": "William Carrier", "score": 57.20654669244161, "components": { "Goal model": 61.395348837209305, "SOG model": 71.3953488372093, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 81.86046511627907, "Goalie": 66.02941176470588, "Team H2H": 43.58304880498092, "Goalie H2H": 50.31264474293654 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 3, "goalieH2HShots": 1, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 121 } }, { "id": "8483679", "name": "Anton Johansson", "team": "DET", "opponent": "CGY", "position": "D", "currentGP": 9, "currentSOG": 0.6666666666666666, "priorSOG": null, "currentTOI": 14.33888888888889, "currentFiveTOI": 13.24074074074074, "ppShare": 0.003492063492063492, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:46.646106+00:00", "priorGP": null, "currentTotalSOG": 6.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.02037037037037037, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.67 SOG/game in 9 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 9 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.47, "currentIXG": 0.05222222222222222, "priorTOI": null, "priorPPTOI": null, "deploymentChange": null, "ppTOIChange": null, "h2hLog": [], "h2hGames": 0, "h2hAvailableGames": 0, "h2hSOG": null, "opponentDefense": { "team": "CGY", "games": 8, "sogAllowedTotal": 237.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 29.625, "mostAllowedRank": 6, "fiveSogAllowed60": 29.8086265894977, "pkSogAllowed60": 38.789888106092, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.5, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 59.0, "C": 89.0, "R": 48.0, "L": 41.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 11.125, "L": 5.125, "R": 6.0, "D": 7.375 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 30.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.5, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 29.625, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.375, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8482445", "team": "CGY", "name": "Devin Cooley", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 3, "savePct": 0.8681318681318682, "gaa": 4.010025062656641, "gsax": -2.561, "goalsAllowed": 12.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 9.439, "shotsAgainst": 91.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0263021756310153, "factor": 1.0263021756310153, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T16:24:22.507Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.06382797892231855, "goalHistoryGoals": 1.0, "goalHistoryShots": 6.0, "goalExpected": 0.041773086063076885, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.04287180910935745, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.040912613822670606, "goalProbability": 0.0419658065477505, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.10531927250798934, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 9, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 0.6544635560827731, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.020979020979021, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 13.24074074074074, "Current_PP_Share": 0.003492063492063492, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.430208333333333, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.018962632275132275, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0746225056341803, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9180727421999328, "Position_Factor": 0.9914347993653367, "Input_GP": 9, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 11.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3150.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": null, "Prior_PP_SOG60": null, "Prior_5v5_Min": null, "Prior_PP_Share": null, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0017299327797549, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.34640522875817, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0017299327797549, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9180727421999328, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 3.020979020979021, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Reviewed October22 projected lineup and coach reports", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 1, "playerPriorWeight": 0, "currentSeasonOnly": true }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 1, "playerPriorWeight": 0, "currentSeasonOnly": true }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482445", "goalieName": "Devin Cooley", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8483679", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482445", "goalieName": "Devin Cooley", "opponent": "DET", "games": 1, "availableGames": 1, "shotsAgainst": 29.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "savePct": 0.8620689655172413, "gaa": 4.1248925809223715, "gsax": -1.0219999999999998, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020477", "date": "20251210", "goalieTeam": "CGY", "opponent": "DET", "shotsAgainst": 29.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3491.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.978 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.6544635560827731, "adjustedSOG": 0.6544635560827731, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.6678199551865032, "adjustedSOG": 0.6544635560827731, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.06382797892231855, "goalHistoryGoals": 1.0, "goalHistoryShots": 6.0, "goalExpected": 0.042625598023547845, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.042625598023547845, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.041729898868386676, "goalProbability": 0.041729898868386676, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05765765765765766, "modelSOG": 0.6544635560827731, "historyGames": 9, "seasonGames": { "2026": 9 }, "historyGoals": 1.0, "historyShots": 6.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.16666666666666666, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.06382797892231855, "goalieFactor": 1.0263021756310153, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": 38.89979480164159, "btb": { "id": "8483679", "name": "Anton Johansson", "score": 38.89979480164159, "components": { "Goal model": 11.627906976744185, "SOG model": 12.325581395348838, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 13.255813953488373, "Goalie": 71.32352941176471, "Team H2H": 50.0, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Team H2H unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 0, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 366 } }, { "id": "8476927", "name": "Teddy Blueger", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "EDM", "position": "C", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 1.0, "priorSOG": 1.457142857142857, "currentTOI": 12.436363636363637, "currentFiveTOI": 9.218181818181819, "ppShare": 0.0045139933794763765, "rate": 1.1737430172908536, "fifty": 1.0620015549167217, "inputs": { "Player": "Teddy Blueger", "Player_ID": "8476927", "Team": "TOR", "Opponent": "EDM", "Position": "C", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 0.9770986092494442, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 0.8214479029672574, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 11, "Prior_GP": 35, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.733727810650888, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.825898991253058, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 14.87603305785124, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 10.715441558441558, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 9.218181818181819, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0045139933794763765, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.030541776391225316, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 15.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3323.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 6, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.3053872053872055, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.05305239453021365, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.019434489341200144, "Other_State_SOG": 0.2844155844155844, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9716922687020597, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.457142857142857, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/toronto-maple-leafs/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:46.671139+00:00", "priorGP": 35, "currentTotalSOG": 11.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.022727272727272728, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.00 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.6940000000000001, "currentIXG": 0.0630909090909091, "priorTOI": 16.51190476190476, "priorPPTOI": 0.11523809523809524, "deploymentChange": -4.075541125541122, "ppTOIChange": -0.09251082251082252, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021311", "date": "20260416", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 16.45 }, { "gameId": "2024020768", "date": "20250123", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 15.083333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020735", "date": "20250118", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 12.65 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 0.3333333333333333, "opponentDefense": { "team": "EDM", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 239.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 26.555555555555557, "mostAllowedRank": 18, "fiveSogAllowed60": 25.09786377362711, "pkSogAllowed60": 57.79388917659244, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 40.111111111111114, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 74.0, "C": 64.0, "L": 57.0, "R": 44.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.111111111111111, "L": 6.333333333333333, "R": 4.888888888888889, "D": 8.222222222222221 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 28.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 24.5, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 26.555555555555557, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.111111111111111, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8477465", "team": "EDM", "name": "Tristan Jarry", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 3, "savePct": 0.8732394366197183, "gaa": 2.974387221151198, "gsax": -2.739, "goalsAllowed": 9.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 6.261, "shotsAgainst": 71.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0280169850571896, "factor": 1.0280169850571896, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-23T18:50:20.460Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.11661109720500218, "goalHistoryGoals": 17.0, "goalHistoryShots": 156.0, "goalExpected": 0.10457299403422105, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.1075028140454634, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.09929095137984041, "goalProbability": 0.10192600477380537, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.2635053393964956, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 0.8967670877016262, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.733727810650888, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 9.218181818181819, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0045139933794763765, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.3053872053872055, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.019434489341200144, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.2727272727272727, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9913228889134689, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0841268017286898, "Position_Factor": 0.9730886823103262, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 15.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3323.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.825898991253058, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 14.87603305785124, "Prior_5v5_Min": 14.209047619047618, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.030541776391225316, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.8832191281527919, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.437908496732026, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.8832191281527919, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0841268017286898, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 4.733727810650888, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 0.6666666666666666 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 0.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021311", "date": "20260416", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 16.45 }, { "gameId": "2024020768", "date": "20250123", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 15.083333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020735", "date": "20250118", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 12.65 }, { "gameId": "2024020235", "date": "20241109", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 16.666666666666668 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 66, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477465", "goalieName": "Tristan Jarry", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8476927", "goals": 0, "sog": 8, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 3, "recordedAttempts": 9, "log": [ { "gameId": "2024020354", "date": "20241127", "season": 2024, "goals": 0, "sog": 4, "attempts": 4 }, { "gameId": "2023020937", "date": "20240227", "season": 2023, "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 3 }, { "gameId": "2023020643", "date": "20240111", "season": 2023, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477465", "goalieName": "Tristan Jarry", "opponent": "TOR", "games": 5, "availableGames": 13, "shotsAgainst": 102.0, "goalsAgainst": 16.0, "savePct": 0.8431372549019608, "gaa": 4.100811618966254, "gsax": -2.944, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020499", "date": "20251213", "goalieTeam": "EDM", "opponent": "TOR", "shotsAgainst": 28.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.854 }, { "gameId": "2025020396", "date": "20251129", "goalieTeam": "PIT", "opponent": "TOR", "shotsAgainst": 13.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 2107.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.626 }, { "gameId": "2025020199", "date": "20251103", "goalieTeam": "PIT", "opponent": "TOR", "shotsAgainst": 20.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3452.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.296 }, { "gameId": "2024020433", "date": "20241207", "goalieTeam": "PIT", "opponent": "TOR", "shotsAgainst": 27.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3571.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.846 }, { "gameId": "2023020466", "date": "20231216", "goalieTeam": "PIT", "opponent": "TOR", "shotsAgainst": 14.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 1316.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.434 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.8967670877016262, "adjustedSOG": 0.8967670877016262, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.9150684568383941, "adjustedSOG": 0.8967670877016262, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.11661109720500218, "goalHistoryGoals": 17.0, "goalHistoryShots": 156.0, "goalExpected": 0.10670713676961331, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.10969674902598306, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.10121114334198868, "goalProbability": 0.1038941609342513, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.26830175922626237 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1285244088448056, "modelSOG": 0.8967670877016262, "historyGames": 128, "seasonGames": { "2024": 82, "2025": 35, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 17.0, "historyShots": 156.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.10897435897435898, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.11661109720500218, "goalieFactor": 1.0280169850571896, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 44.11693203987749, "btb": { "id": "8476927", "name": "Teddy Blueger", "score": 44.11693203987749, "components": { "Goal model": 38.13953488372093, "SOG model": 21.627906976744185, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 10.930232558139535, "Goalie": 92.20588235294117, "Team H2H": 37.6165609847072, "Goalie H2H": 44.51534075481944 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": 8, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 286 } }, { "id": "8478136", "name": "Jacob Middleton", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "DET", "position": "D", "currentGP": 8, "currentSOG": 1.25, "priorSOG": 0.8266666666666667, "currentTOI": 17.78125, "currentFiveTOI": 15.329166666666667, "ppShare": 0.0, "rate": 0.8604862829747613, "fifty": 0.8895395700626406, "inputs": { "Player": "Jake Middleton", "Player_ID": "8478136", "Team": "CGY", "Opponent": "DET", "Position": "D", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 0.80962743555923, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 0.8133847375890062, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 8, "Prior_GP": 75, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.4248437075292197, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.1132739212007503, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 15.278683333333333, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 15.329166666666667, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.003748475159546463, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1448.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 5, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.265740740740741, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.004797006961119599, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.0, "Other_State_SOG": 0.07350000000000001, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9911254066849144, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 0.8266666666666667, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:46.695461+00:00", "priorGP": 75, "currentTotalSOG": 10.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.0, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.25 SOG/game in 8 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 8 games. 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MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021222", "date": "20260405", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "DET", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 18.25 }, { "gameId": "2025020801", "date": "20260122", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "DET", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 21.25 }, { "gameId": "2024020928", "date": "20250225", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "DET", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 20.116666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020894", "date": "20250222", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "DET", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 24.0 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Reviewed October22 projected lineup and coach reports", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 93, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476434", "goalieName": "John Gibson", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8478136", "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 2, "recordedAttempts": 3, "log": [ { "gameId": "2023021091", "date": "20240319", "season": 2023, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2022020379", "date": "20221203", "season": 2022, "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 2 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476434", "goalieName": "John Gibson", "opponent": "CGY", "games": 5, "availableGames": 25, "shotsAgainst": 152.0, "goalsAgainst": 14.0, "savePct": 0.9078947368421053, "gaa": 2.9964328180737216, "gsax": 0.16800000000000015, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021063", "date": "20260316", "goalieTeam": "DET", "opponent": "CGY", "shotsAgainst": 27.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3589.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.703 }, { "gameId": "2025020477", "date": "20251210", "goalieTeam": "DET", "opponent": "CGY", "shotsAgainst": 37.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.965 }, { "gameId": "2024021203", "date": "20250403", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "CGY", "shotsAgainst": 26.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 2381.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.555 }, { "gameId": "2024020818", "date": "20250130", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "CGY", "shotsAgainst": 29.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3525.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.091 }, { "gameId": "2024020648", "date": "20250107", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "CGY", "shotsAgainst": 33.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3725.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.854 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.293143613036149, "adjustedSOG": 1.293143613036149, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.293143613036149, "adjustedSOG": 1.293143613036149, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.0623210793607503, "goalHistoryGoals": 11.0, "goalHistoryShots": 169.0, "goalExpected": 0.08059010573287323, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.08059010573287323, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.07742822916709495, "goalProbability": 0.07742822916709495, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.0576437034804183, "modelSOG": 1.293143613036149, "historyGames": 150, "seasonGames": { "2024": 67, "2025": 75, "2026": 8 }, "historyGoals": 11.0, "historyShots": 169.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.0650887573964497, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.0623210793607503, "goalieFactor": 1.0182492009293351, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 37.853282898519254, "btb": { "id": "8478136", "name": "Jacob Middleton", "score": 37.853282898519254, "components": { "Goal model": 28.6046511627907, "SOG model": 47.2093023255814, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 27.906976744186046, "Goalie": 2.5, "Team H2H": 44.666169339798586, "Goalie H2H": 50.31264474293654 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": 1, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 377 } }, { "id": "8477939", "name": "William Nylander", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "EDM", "position": "R", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 3.0, "priorSOG": 2.4, "currentTOI": 20.39848484848485, "currentFiveTOI": 14.796969696969699, "ppShare": 0.7502256996689738, "rate": 2.408634418968199, "fifty": 2.531155771850135, "inputs": { "Player": "William Nylander", "Player_ID": "8477939", "Team": "TOR", "Opponent": "EDM", "Position": "R", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 2.2106650761640987, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 2.38964187049673, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 11, "Prior_GP": 65, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 8.478394429653902, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.237920693102299, "Current_PP_SOG60": 7.2202166064981945, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 10.018232415315229, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 14.974801864801865, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 14.796969696969699, "Current_PP_Share": 0.7502256996689738, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.7181207151272919, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2493.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3323.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 6, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.3053872053872055, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 3.188544811604991, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 3.230012128507464, "Other_State_SOG": 0.3500699300699301, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9716922687020597, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 2.4, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/toronto-maple-leafs/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:46.719807+00:00", "priorGP": 65, "currentTotalSOG": 33.0, "currentPPTOI": 3.777272727272727, "volumeNote": "Observed 3.00 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 4.7780000000000005, "currentIXG": 0.4343636363636364, "priorTOI": 19.415641025641026, "priorPPTOI": 2.672051282051282, "deploymentChange": 0.9828438228438223, "ppTOIChange": 1.1052214452214448, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020891", "date": "20260203", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 17.766666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020499", "date": "20251213", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 13.766666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020833", "date": "20250201", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "away", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 20.15 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 2.6666666666666665, "opponentDefense": { "team": "EDM", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 239.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 26.555555555555557, "mostAllowedRank": 18, "fiveSogAllowed60": 25.09786377362711, "pkSogAllowed60": 57.79388917659244, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 40.111111111111114, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 74.0, "C": 64.0, "L": 57.0, "R": 44.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.111111111111111, "L": 6.333333333333333, "R": 4.888888888888889, "D": 8.222222222222221 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 28.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 24.5, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 26.555555555555557, "oppPosSogAllowed": 4.888888888888889, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8477465", "team": "EDM", "name": "Tristan Jarry", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 3, "savePct": 0.8732394366197183, "gaa": 2.974387221151198, "gsax": -2.739, "goalsAllowed": 9.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 6.261, "shotsAgainst": 71.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0280169850571896, "factor": 1.0280169850571896, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-23T18:50:20.460Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.17311453798642612, "goalHistoryGoals": 81.0, "goalHistoryShots": 442.0, "goalExpected": 0.48792648851521525, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.501596717652953, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.386102000062394, "goalProbability": 0.3944370257329768, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.8335025670582807, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 2.8185182722982716, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 8.478394429653902, "Current_PP_SOG60": 7.2202166064981945, "Current_5v5_Min": 14.796969696969699, "Current_PP_Share": 0.7502256996689738, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.3053872053872055, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 3.230012128507464, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.45454545454545453, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9913228889134689, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0841268017286898, "Position_Factor": 0.9918962386417378, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2493.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3323.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.237920693102299, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 10.018232415315229, "Prior_5v5_Min": 15.38974358974359, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.7181207151272919, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9565717572620075, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.382352941176471, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9565717572620075, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0841268017286898, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 8.478394429653902, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 7.2202166064981945, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 4.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020891", "date": "20260203", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 17.766666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020499", "date": "20251213", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 13.766666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020833", "date": "20250201", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "away", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 20.15 }, { "gameId": "2024020274", "date": "20241116", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 14.0, "toi": 21.3 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 161, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 42, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477465", "goalieName": "Tristan Jarry", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8477939", "goals": 3, "sog": 20, "shootingPct": 0.15, "gamesWithAttempts": 9, "recordedAttempts": 29, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020499", "date": "20251213", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 2 }, { "gameId": "2025020396", "date": "20251129", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2 }, { "gameId": "2025020199", "date": "20251103", "season": 2025, "goals": 2, "sog": 5, "attempts": 7 }, { "gameId": "2024020433", "date": "20241207", "season": 2024, "goals": 1, "sog": 5, "attempts": 5 }, { "gameId": "2023020466", "date": "20231216", "season": 2023, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2 }, { "gameId": "2023020311", "date": "20231125", "season": 2023, "goals": 0, "sog": 4, "attempts": 4 }, { "gameId": "2021020542", "date": "20220217", "season": 2021, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2 }, { "gameId": "2021020261", "date": "20211120", "season": 2021, "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 3 }, { "gameId": "2021020071", "date": "20211023", "season": 2021, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477465", "goalieName": "Tristan Jarry", "opponent": "TOR", "games": 5, "availableGames": 13, "shotsAgainst": 102.0, "goalsAgainst": 16.0, "savePct": 0.8431372549019608, "gaa": 4.100811618966254, "gsax": -2.944, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020499", "date": "20251213", "goalieTeam": "EDM", "opponent": "TOR", "shotsAgainst": 28.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.854 }, { "gameId": "2025020396", "date": "20251129", "goalieTeam": "PIT", "opponent": "TOR", "shotsAgainst": 13.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 2107.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.626 }, { "gameId": "2025020199", "date": "20251103", "goalieTeam": "PIT", "opponent": "TOR", "shotsAgainst": 20.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3452.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.296 }, { "gameId": "2024020433", "date": "20241207", "goalieTeam": "PIT", "opponent": "TOR", "shotsAgainst": 27.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3571.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.846 }, { "gameId": "2023020466", "date": "20231216", "goalieTeam": "PIT", "opponent": "TOR", "shotsAgainst": 14.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 1316.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.434 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 2.8185182722982716, "adjustedSOG": 2.8185182722982716, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 2.876039053365583, "adjustedSOG": 2.8185182722982716, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.17311453798642612, "goalHistoryGoals": 81.0, "goalHistoryShots": 442.0, "goalExpected": 0.49788417195430124, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.5118333853601561, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.3921846671124649, "goalProbability": 0.4006043523837909, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.8419685271325972 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12828079588642968, "modelSOG": 2.8185182722982716, "historyGames": 158, "seasonGames": { "2024": 82, "2025": 65, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 81.0, "historyShots": 442.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.1832579185520362, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.17311453798642612, "goalieFactor": 1.0280169850571896, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 70.3135987528558, "btb": { "id": "8477939", "name": "William Nylander", "score": 70.3135987528558, "components": { "Goal model": 97.90697674418605, "SOG model": 92.55813953488372, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 95.11627906976744, "Goalie": 92.20588235294117, "Team H2H": 48.17232375979112, "Goalie H2H": 51.46231721034871 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": 20, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 2 } }, { "id": "8482809", "name": "Jackson Blake", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "STL", "position": "R", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 2.909090909090909, "priorSOG": 2.1481481481481484, "currentTOI": 18.481818181818184, "currentFiveTOI": 12.52878787878788, "ppShare": 0.7885809842331581, "rate": 2.3743451538543163, "fifty": 2.6415697957245134, "inputs": { "Player": "Jackson Blake", "Player_ID": "8482809", "Team": "CAR", "Opponent": "STL", "Position": "R", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 2.533218579816845, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 2.8023545602133413, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 11, "Prior_GP": 81, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 9.577941710001209, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.863373002278855, "Current_PP_SOG60": 10.90578612541654, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 9.649558224957808, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 12.914534231200896, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 12.52878787878788, "Current_PP_Share": 0.7885809842331581, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.4690726526349097, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 3301.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 4186.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 7, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 6.0017676767676775, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 4.157595428570909, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 4.73287986168421, "Other_State_SOG": 0.19999999999999998, "Environment_Proxy": 1.00049372648272, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 2.1481481481481484, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:46.746773+00:00", "priorGP": 81, "currentTotalSOG": 32.0, "currentPPTOI": 5.001515151515151, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.91 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 4.918, "currentIXG": 0.4470909090909091, "priorTOI": 16.499176954732512, "priorPPTOI": 2.072633744855967, "deploymentChange": 1.9826412270856721, "ppTOIChange": 2.928881406659184, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021033", "date": "20260312", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "STL", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 17.983333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020730", "date": "20260113", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "STL", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 11.3 }, { "gameId": "2024020284", "date": "20241117", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "STL", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 17.4 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 0.3333333333333333, "opponentDefense": { "team": "STL", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 246.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.333333333333332, "mostAllowedRank": 15, "fiveSogAllowed60": 24.991224991224993, "pkSogAllowed60": 45.92737978410206, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 41.333333333333336, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 29.0, "L": 56.0, "D": 69.0, "C": 92.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.222222222222221, "L": 6.222222222222222, "R": 3.2222222222222223, "D": 7.666666666666667 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 27.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 3, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27.666666666666668, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.333333333333332, "oppPosSogAllowed": 3.2222222222222223, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8480981", "team": "STL", "name": "Joel Hofer", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 6, "savePct": 0.9192546583850931, "gaa": 2.1949160491511117, "gsax": 2.83, "goalsAllowed": 13.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 15.83, "shotsAgainst": 161.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9785370006226618, "factor": 0.9785370006226618, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T15:44:23.131Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.11771504200637509, "goalHistoryGoals": 40.0, "goalHistoryShots": 349.0, "goalExpected": 0.29364763551364303, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.2873450764954569, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.2544608533161382, "goalProbability": 0.24974721044061965, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.47136428755185644, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 2.494563400807689, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 9.577941710001209, "Current_PP_SOG60": 10.90578612541654, "Current_5v5_Min": 12.52878787878788, "Current_PP_Share": 0.7885809842331581, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 6.0017676767676775, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 4.73287986168421, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9895702550696535, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9828075032932179, "Position_Factor": 0.952219112355058, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 3301.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 4186.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.863373002278855, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 9.649558224957808, "Prior_5v5_Min": 13.814609053497943, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.4690726526349097, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.85, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.382352941176471, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9828075032932179, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 9.577941710001209, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 10.90578612541654, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 3.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021033", "date": "20260312", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "STL", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 17.983333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020730", "date": "20260113", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "STL", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 11.3 }, { "gameId": "2024020284", "date": "20241117", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "STL", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 17.4 }, { "gameId": "2024020084", "date": "20241019", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "STL", "venue": "away", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 12.883333333333333 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Reviewed October22 projected lineup and coach reports", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 207, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 41, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480981", "goalieName": "Joel Hofer", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8482809", "goals": 0, "sog": 6, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 3, "recordedAttempts": 8, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020730", "date": "20260113", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2024020284", "date": "20241117", "season": 2024, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2 }, { "gameId": "2024020084", "date": "20241019", "season": 2024, "goals": 0, "sog": 5, "attempts": 5 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480981", "goalieName": "Joel Hofer", "opponent": "CAR", "games": 4, "availableGames": 4, "shotsAgainst": 121.0, "goalsAgainst": 10.0, "savePct": 0.9173553719008265, "gaa": 2.5300442757748263, "gsax": 1.0949999999999998, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020730", "date": "20260113", "goalieTeam": "STL", "opponent": "CAR", "shotsAgainst": 33.0, "goalsAgainst": 0.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.698 }, { "gameId": "2024020284", "date": "20241117", "goalieTeam": "STL", "opponent": "CAR", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.293 }, { "gameId": "2024020084", "date": "20241019", "goalieTeam": "STL", "opponent": "CAR", "shotsAgainst": 40.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.792 }, { "gameId": "2021020216", "date": "20211113", "goalieTeam": "STL", "opponent": "CAR", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3429.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.312 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 2.494563400807689, "adjustedSOG": 2.494563400807689, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 2.5454728579670296, "adjustedSOG": 2.494563400807689, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.11771504200637509, "goalHistoryGoals": 40.0, "goalHistoryShots": 349.0, "goalExpected": 0.29964044440167653, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.293209261730058, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.25891536608738186, "goalProbability": 0.25413395685341106, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.47814092339708014 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12854053860862416, "modelSOG": 2.494563400807689, "historyGames": 172, "seasonGames": { "2024": 80, "2025": 81, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 40.0, "historyShots": 349.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.11461318051575932, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.11771504200637509, "goalieFactor": 0.9785370006226618, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 62.750484339850594, "btb": { "id": "8482809", "name": "Jackson Blake", "score": 62.750484339850594, "components": { "Goal model": 84.4186046511628, "SOG model": 86.97674418604652, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 95.5813953488372, "Goalie": 66.02941176470588, "Team H2H": 37.87765759045132, "Goalie H2H": 46.75196850393701 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": 6, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 56 } }, { "id": "8477447", "name": "Shea Theodore", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "CBJ", "position": "D", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 2.090909090909091, "priorSOG": 1.8571428571428572, "currentTOI": 21.35151515151515, "currentFiveTOI": 17.46818181818182, "ppShare": 0.3437001594896332, "rate": 1.8395829108981085, "fifty": 1.8420147998527017, "inputs": { "Player": "Shea Theodore", "Player_ID": "8477447", "Team": "VGK", "Opponent": "CBJ", "Position": "D", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 2.037709071392955, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 2.104561792821622, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 11, "Prior_GP": 70, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.68384074941452, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.9456782032214965, "Current_PP_SOG60": 8.352668213457077, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 3.4097366925554082, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 17.895012987012986, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 17.46818181818182, "Current_PP_Share": 0.3437001594896332, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.2752542209063948, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1293.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3762.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 6, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.392708333333333, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 1.742742019233545, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 1.8534747142477406, "Other_State_SOG": 0.21259740259740262, "Environment_Proxy": 1.0241190783267258, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.8571428571428572, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/vegas-golden-knights/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:46.772016+00:00", "priorGP": 70, "currentTotalSOG": 23.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.9590909090909092, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.09 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.396, "currentIXG": 0.1269090909090909, "priorTOI": 22.83642857142857, "priorPPTOI": 1.256904761904762, "deploymentChange": -1.4849134199134184, "ppTOIChange": 0.7021861471861472, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020502", "date": "20251213", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 8.0, "toi": 22.716666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2024020820", "date": "20250130", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 8.0, "toi": 20.716666666666665 } ], "h2hGames": 2, "h2hAvailableGames": 2, "h2hSOG": 3.5, "opponentDefense": { "team": "CBJ", "games": 8, "sogAllowedTotal": 222.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.75, "mostAllowedRank": 13, "fiveSogAllowed60": 26.021128266541208, "pkSogAllowed60": 45.718967636214664, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 43.125, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 66.0, "D": 61.0, "R": 49.0, "L": 46.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 8.25, "L": 5.75, "R": 6.125, "D": 7.625 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 28.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.666666666666668, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.75, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.625, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8475660", "team": "CBJ", "name": "Cam Talbot", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 4, "savePct": 0.8674698795180723, "gaa": 3.3959351685104195, "gsax": -0.8840000000000003, "goalsAllowed": 11.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 10.116, "shotsAgainst": 83.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0106708091071457, "factor": 1.0106708091071457, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T15:32:32.146Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.06498892683166435, "goalHistoryGoals": 19.0, "goalHistoryShots": 281.0, "goalExpected": 0.13341228318658963, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.1348359001930222, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.12489577303472423, "goalProbability": 0.12614069993482338, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.12449269000991553, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 2.0528463800018866, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.68384074941452, "Current_PP_SOG60": 8.352668213457077, "Current_5v5_Min": 17.46818181818182, "Current_PP_Share": 0.3437001594896332, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.392708333333333, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.8534747142477406, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.45454545454545453, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0080456056426796, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9827600403123256, "Position_Factor": 1.0020745834802773, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1293.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3762.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.9456782032214965, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 3.4097366925554082, "Prior_5v5_Min": 18.89095238095238, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.2752542209063948, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0168544879398973, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.34640522875817, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0168544879398973, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9827600403123256, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 4.68384074941452, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 8.352668213457077, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 3.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 4.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020502", "date": "20251213", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 8.0, "toi": 22.716666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2024020820", "date": "20250130", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 8.0, "toi": 20.716666666666665 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 163, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. 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Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475660", "goalieName": "Cam Talbot", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8477447", "goals": 0, "sog": 16, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 8, "recordedAttempts": 25, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020970", "date": "20260304", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 3 }, { "gameId": "2023020192", "date": "20231108", "season": 2023, "goals": 0, "sog": 5, "attempts": 6 }, { "gameId": "2023020125", "date": "20231028", "season": 2023, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 4 }, { "gameId": "2022020315", "date": "20221123", "season": 2022, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2022020163", "date": "20221103", "season": 2022, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2021021001", "date": "20220321", "season": 2021, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2 }, { "gameId": "2021020435", "date": "20211212", "season": 2021, "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 2 }, { "gameId": "2021020204", "date": "20211111", "season": 2021, "goals": 0, "sog": 4, "attempts": 6 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475660", "goalieName": "Cam Talbot", "opponent": "VGK", "games": 5, "availableGames": 22, "shotsAgainst": 160.0, "goalsAgainst": 16.0, "savePct": 0.9, "gaa": 3.176704169424222, "gsax": 0.6329999999999996, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020970", "date": "20260304", "goalieTeam": "DET", "opponent": "VGK", "shotsAgainst": 25.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3728.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.397 }, { "gameId": "2024021115", "date": "20250322", "goalieTeam": "DET", "opponent": "VGK", "shotsAgainst": 35.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3491.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.784 }, { "gameId": "2023020544", "date": "20231228", "goalieTeam": "LAK", "opponent": "VGK", "shotsAgainst": 32.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3478.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.46 }, { "gameId": "2023020192", "date": "20231108", "goalieTeam": "LAK", "opponent": "VGK", "shotsAgainst": 38.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.55 }, { "gameId": "2023020125", "date": "20231028", "goalieTeam": "LAK", "opponent": "VGK", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3835.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.442 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 2.0528463800018866, "adjustedSOG": 2.0528463800018866, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 2.0947412040835576, "adjustedSOG": 2.0528463800018866, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.06498892683166435, "goalHistoryGoals": 19.0, "goalHistoryShots": 281.0, "goalExpected": 0.13613498284345882, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.13758765325818592, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.12727517834030685, "goalProbability": 0.12854203948029813, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.12668611399912766 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05760781122864117, "modelSOG": 2.0528463800018866, "historyGames": 148, "seasonGames": { "2024": 67, "2025": 70, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 19.0, "historyShots": 281.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.06761565836298933, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.06498892683166435, "goalieFactor": 1.0106708091071457, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 44.59284584582385, "btb": { "id": "8477447", "name": "Shea Theodore", "score": 44.59284584582385, "components": { "Goal model": 47.2093023255814, "SOG model": 77.20930232558139, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 35.348837209302324, "Goalie": 13.088235294117647, "Team H2H": 50.80504786771105, "Goalie H2H": 38.2605583392985 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 2, "goalieH2HShots": 16, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 281 } }, { "id": "8478427", "name": "Sebastian Aho", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "STL", "position": "C", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 3.090909090909091, "priorSOG": 2.4683544303797467, "currentTOI": 19.96060606060606, "currentFiveTOI": 12.783333333333333, "ppShare": 0.7224080267558528, "rate": 2.6214164625551835, "fifty": 2.7209088169940507, "inputs": { "Player": "Sebastian Aho", "Player_ID": "8478427", "Team": "CAR", "Opponent": "STL", "Position": "C", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 2.8062806947439034, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 2.9758304759032166, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 11, "Prior_GP": 79, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 7.680455138082257, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.725262609867394, "Current_PP_SOG60": 11.904761904761905, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 10.209424083769633, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 13.08162447257384, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 12.783333333333333, "Current_PP_Share": 0.7224080267558528, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.6566063390940534, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 3024.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 4186.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 7, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 6.0017676767676775, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 4.217247211795192, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 4.335725144420797, "Other_State_SOG": 0.43049482163406216, "Environment_Proxy": 1.00049372648272, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 2.4683544303797467, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:46.799191+00:00", "priorGP": 79, "currentTotalSOG": 34.0, "currentPPTOI": 4.581818181818182, "volumeNote": "Observed 3.09 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. 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MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021033", "date": "20260312", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "STL", "venue": "home", "sog": 7.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 8.0, "toi": 20.5 }, { "gameId": "2025020730", "date": "20260113", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "STL", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 18.183333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020284", "date": "20241117", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "STL", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 18.516666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020084", "date": "20241019", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "STL", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 20.316666666666666 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Reviewed October22 projected lineup and coach reports", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 199, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 59, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480981", "goalieName": "Joel Hofer", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8478427", "goals": 1, "sog": 10, "shootingPct": 0.1, "gamesWithAttempts": 4, "recordedAttempts": 17, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020730", "date": "20260113", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 5 }, { "gameId": "2024020284", "date": "20241117", "season": 2024, "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 3 }, { "gameId": "2024020084", "date": "20241019", "season": 2024, "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 3 }, { "gameId": "2021020216", "date": "20211113", "season": 2021, "goals": 1, "sog": 4, "attempts": 6 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480981", "goalieName": "Joel Hofer", "opponent": "CAR", "games": 4, "availableGames": 4, "shotsAgainst": 121.0, "goalsAgainst": 10.0, "savePct": 0.9173553719008265, "gaa": 2.5300442757748263, "gsax": 1.0949999999999998, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020730", "date": "20260113", "goalieTeam": "STL", "opponent": "CAR", "shotsAgainst": 33.0, "goalsAgainst": 0.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.698 }, { "gameId": "2024020284", "date": "20241117", "goalieTeam": "STL", "opponent": "CAR", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.293 }, { "gameId": "2024020084", "date": "20241019", "goalieTeam": "STL", "opponent": "CAR", "shotsAgainst": 40.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.792 }, { "gameId": "2021020216", "date": "20211113", "goalieTeam": "STL", "opponent": "CAR", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3429.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.312 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 3.029871304159622, "adjustedSOG": 3.029871304159622, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 3.0917054124077774, "adjustedSOG": 3.029871304159622, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.13963503965271692, "goalHistoryGoals": 62.0, "goalHistoryShots": 436.0, "goalExpected": 0.43171040785607956, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.4224446076410741, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.35060259015445616, "goalProbability": 0.34455744016916307, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.6045149985293097 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12844381253856266, "modelSOG": 3.029871304159622, "historyGames": 169, "seasonGames": { "2024": 79, "2025": 79, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 62.0, "historyShots": 436.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.14220183486238533, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.13963503965271692, "goalieFactor": 0.9785370006226618, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 66.64099707510898, "btb": { "id": "8478427", "name": "Sebastian Aho", "score": 66.64099707510898, "components": { "Goal model": 96.27906976744185, "SOG model": 94.88372093023256, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 97.20930232558139, "Goalie": 66.02941176470588, "Team H2H": 42.7265945542708, "Goalie H2H": 49.08136482939633 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": 10, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 19 } }, { "id": "8478458", "name": "Jack Roslovic", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "EDM", "position": "L", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 2.909090909090909, "priorSOG": 2.0434782608695654, "currentTOI": 16.55151515151515, "currentFiveTOI": 14.751515151515152, "ppShare": 0.26482094492928077, "rate": 2.0661343363958657, "fifty": 2.195562331868933, "inputs": { "Player": "Jack Roslovic", "Player_ID": "8478458", "Team": "TOR", "Opponent": "EDM", "Position": "C", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.8702514262441965, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 2.0917433165778427, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 11, "Prior_GP": 69, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 8.504519309778143, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 7.628152969894223, "Current_PP_SOG60": 16.363636363636363, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 9.471607103705328, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 14.600843214756258, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 14.751515151515152, "Current_PP_Share": 0.26482094492928077, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.27050468816834733, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 880.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3323.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 6, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.3053872053872055, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 1.14749792264313, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 1.1401567080170751, "Other_State_SOG": 0.05849802371541502, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9716922687020597, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 2.0434782608695654, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/toronto-maple-leafs/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:46.819544+00:00", "priorGP": 69, "currentTotalSOG": 32.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.3333333333333333, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.91 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 3.363, "currentIXG": 0.30572727272727274, "priorTOI": 15.770048309178746, "priorPPTOI": 1.1016908212560386, "deploymentChange": 0.7814668423364051, "ppTOIChange": 0.2316425120772947, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2024020955", "date": "20250301", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 12.816666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020103", "date": "20241022", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 13.9 } ], "h2hGames": 2, "h2hAvailableGames": 2, "h2hSOG": 2.5, "opponentDefense": { "team": "EDM", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 239.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 26.555555555555557, "mostAllowedRank": 18, "fiveSogAllowed60": 25.09786377362711, "pkSogAllowed60": 57.79388917659244, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 40.111111111111114, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 74.0, "C": 64.0, "L": 57.0, "R": 44.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.111111111111111, "L": 6.333333333333333, "R": 4.888888888888889, "D": 8.222222222222221 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 28.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 24.5, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 26.555555555555557, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.333333333333333, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8477465", "team": "EDM", "name": "Tristan Jarry", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 3, "savePct": 0.8732394366197183, "gaa": 2.974387221151198, "gsax": -2.739, "goalsAllowed": 9.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 6.261, "shotsAgainst": 71.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0280169850571896, "factor": 1.0280169850571896, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-23T18:50:20.460Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.14525134275083654, "goalHistoryGoals": 47.0, "goalHistoryShots": 312.0, "goalExpected": 0.4457279319148888, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.4582158847229203, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.3596420306696847, "goalProbability": 0.3675890663900109, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.7947035720326179, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 3.068666516078191, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 8.504519309778143, "Current_PP_SOG60": 16.363636363636363, "Current_5v5_Min": 14.751515151515152, "Current_PP_Share": 0.26482094492928077, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.3053872053872055, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.1401567080170751, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.45454545454545453, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9913228889134689, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0841268017286898, "Position_Factor": 1.0335314825443072, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 880.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3323.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 7.628152969894223, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 9.471607103705328, "Prior_5v5_Min": 14.24927536231884, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.27050468816834733, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.1189562026434712, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.062091503267974, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.1189562026434712, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0841268017286898, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 8.504519309778143, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 16.363636363636363, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2024020955", "date": "20250301", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 12.816666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020103", "date": "20241022", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 13.9 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. 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Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477465", "goalieName": "Tristan Jarry", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8478458", "goals": 2, "sog": 12, "shootingPct": 0.16666666666666666, "gamesWithAttempts": 6, "recordedAttempts": 15, "log": [ { "gameId": "2023021061", "date": "20240316", "season": 2023, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2023020983", "date": "20240305", "season": 2023, "goals": 1, "sog": 3, "attempts": 6 }, { "gameId": "2022021303", "date": "20230413", "season": 2022, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2 }, { "gameId": "2022020081", "date": "20221022", "season": 2022, "goals": 1, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2 }, { "gameId": "2021021007", "date": "20220322", "season": 2021, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2 }, { "gameId": "2021020716", "date": "20220121", "season": 2021, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477465", "goalieName": "Tristan Jarry", "opponent": "TOR", "games": 5, "availableGames": 13, "shotsAgainst": 102.0, "goalsAgainst": 16.0, "savePct": 0.8431372549019608, "gaa": 4.100811618966254, "gsax": -2.944, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020499", "date": "20251213", "goalieTeam": "EDM", "opponent": "TOR", "shotsAgainst": 28.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.854 }, { "gameId": "2025020396", "date": "20251129", "goalieTeam": "PIT", "opponent": "TOR", "shotsAgainst": 13.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 2107.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.626 }, { "gameId": "2025020199", "date": "20251103", "goalieTeam": "PIT", "opponent": "TOR", "shotsAgainst": 20.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3452.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.296 }, { "gameId": "2024020433", "date": "20241207", "goalieTeam": "PIT", "opponent": "TOR", "shotsAgainst": 27.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3571.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.846 }, { "gameId": "2023020466", "date": "20231216", "goalieTeam": "PIT", "opponent": "TOR", "shotsAgainst": 14.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 1316.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.434 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 3.068666516078191, "adjustedSOG": 3.068666516078191, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 3.1312923633450933, "adjustedSOG": 3.068666516078191, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.14525134275083654, "goalHistoryGoals": 47.0, "goalHistoryShots": 312.0, "goalExpected": 0.45482442032131515, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.4675672293091024, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.36544062610139294, "goalProbability": 0.37347539351821407, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.8034767416821131 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12843553213344647, "modelSOG": 3.068666516078191, "historyGames": 161, "seasonGames": { "2024": 81, "2025": 69, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 47.0, "historyShots": 312.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.15064102564102563, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.14525134275083654, "goalieFactor": 1.0280169850571896, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 69.54045573352083, "btb": { "id": "8478458", "name": "Jack Roslovic", "score": 69.54045573352083, "components": { "Goal model": 97.20930232558139, "SOG model": 95.5813953488372, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 85.11627906976744, "Goalie": 92.20588235294117, "Team H2H": 47.58485639686684, "Goalie H2H": 54.495808991617984 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 2, "goalieH2HShots": 12, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 8 } }, { "id": "8475745", "name": "Charlie Coyle", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "VGK", "position": "C", "currentGP": 8, "currentSOG": 1.875, "priorSOG": 1.7560975609756098, "currentTOI": 19.404166666666665, "currentFiveTOI": 12.6, "ppShare": 0.6708964388047483, "rate": 1.6838768619323752, "fifty": 1.6017499568596827, "inputs": { "Player": "Charlie Coyle", "Player_ID": "8475745", "Team": "CBJ", "Opponent": "VGK", "Position": "C", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.719235152460625, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.7544051513835976, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 8, "Prior_GP": 82, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.357142857142857, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.7187353994704875, "Current_PP_SOG60": 4.392922513727883, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 10.199370409233998, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 12.735243902439024, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 12.6, "Current_PP_Share": 0.6708964388047483, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.44718689878466544, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1639.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2443.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 4, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.052367424242425, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 2.446752897911721, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 2.718718873652613, "Other_State_SOG": 0.21463414634146344, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9217353117054976, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.7560975609756098, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:46.841709+00:00", "priorGP": 82, "currentTotalSOG": 15.0, "currentPPTOI": 3.4145833333333333, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.88 SOG/game in 8 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 8 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 2.2800000000000002, "currentIXG": 0.28500000000000003, "priorTOI": 18.098170731707317, "priorPPTOI": 1.9369918699186992, "deploymentChange": 1.3059959349593484, "ppTOIChange": 1.477591463414634, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020692", "date": "20260108", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 17.283333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2025020502", "date": "20251213", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 17.833333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2024021244", "date": "20250408", "team": "COL", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 15.65 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 2.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "VGK", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 275.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 25.0, "mostAllowedRank": 27, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.585792714368043, "pkSogAllowed60": 47.03517587939699, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 38.72727272727273, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 59.0, "C": 80.0, "R": 61.0, "L": 75.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.2727272727272725, "L": 6.818181818181818, "R": 5.545454545454546, "D": 5.363636363636363 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 26.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 25.75, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 25.0, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.2727272727272725, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8479394", "team": "VGK", "name": "Carter Hart", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.8876404494382022, "gaa": 2.8716148845371516, "gsax": -1.5090000000000003, "goalsAllowed": 20.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 18.491, "shotsAgainst": 178.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.017200797231895, "factor": 1.017200797231895, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T22:33:02.238Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.13595516450106626, "goalHistoryGoals": 38.0, "goalHistoryShots": 274.0, "goalExpected": 0.22949281329988813, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.23344027264763664, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.2050633184111493, "goalProbability": 0.2081951132625765, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.31317948514272, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 8, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.688003645481877, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.357142857142857, "Current_PP_SOG60": 4.392922513727883, "Current_5v5_Min": 12.6, "Current_PP_Share": 0.6708964388047483, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.052367424242425, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 2.718718873652613, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.5, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9589471960166247, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9956874166464801, "Position_Factor": 0.9789803456008442, "Input_GP": 8, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1639.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2443.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.7187353994704875, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 10.199370409233998, "Prior_5v5_Min": 13.050813008130083, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.44718689878466544, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.8798311568394671, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.437908496732026, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.8798311568394671, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9956874166464801, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 4.731505820503192, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 6.106870229007634, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020692", "date": "20260108", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 17.283333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2025020502", "date": "20251213", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 17.833333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2024021244", "date": "20250408", "team": "COL", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 15.65 }, { "gameId": "2024020879", "date": "20250208", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 18.6 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "NHL.com October 20 game-specific projected lineup", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 154, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 32, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479394", "goalieName": "Carter Hart", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8475745", "goals": 1, "sog": 7, "shootingPct": 0.14285714285714285, "gamesWithAttempts": 3, "recordedAttempts": 10, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020502", "date": "20251213", "season": 2025, "goals": 1, "sog": 4, "attempts": 4 }, { "gameId": "2022020695", "date": "20230116", "season": 2022, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 3 }, { "gameId": "2022020265", "date": "20221117", "season": 2022, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 3 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479394", "goalieName": "Carter Hart", "opponent": "CBJ", "games": 5, "availableGames": 11, "shotsAgainst": 128.0, "goalsAgainst": 11.0, "savePct": 0.9140625, "gaa": 2.6073215696602583, "gsax": 0.11300000000000043, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020692", "date": "20260108", "goalieTeam": "VGK", "opponent": "CBJ", "shotsAgainst": 1.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 504.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 0.415 }, { "gameId": "2025020502", "date": "20251213", "goalieTeam": "VGK", "opponent": "CBJ", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.064 }, { "gameId": "2023020011", "date": "20231012", "goalieTeam": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "shotsAgainst": 33.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.608 }, { "gameId": "2022021287", "date": "20230411", "goalieTeam": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "shotsAgainst": 31.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3884.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.732 }, { "gameId": "2022020510", "date": "20221220", "goalieTeam": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "shotsAgainst": 33.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.294 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.688003645481877, "adjustedSOG": 1.688003645481877, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.688003645481877, "adjustedSOG": 1.688003645481877, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. 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Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.12110821049112734, "goalHistoryGoals": 19.0, "goalHistoryShots": 163.0, "goalExpected": 0.138936395804328, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.13875307371311377, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.12971661962765876, "goalProbability": 0.1295570628337242, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.015955679393456212 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1285145935916649, "modelSOG": 1.1242645509836566, "historyGames": 82, "seasonGames": { "2024": 62, "2025": 12, "2026": 8 }, "historyGoals": 19.0, "historyShots": 163.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.1165644171779141, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.12110821049112734, "goalieFactor": 0.99868053226692, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 54.56059735673142, "btb": { "id": "8483468", "name": "Jiri Kulich", "score": 54.56059735673142, "components": { "Goal model": 47.44186046511628, "SOG model": 36.97674418604651, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 59.06976744186046, "Goalie": 87.05882352941177, "Team H2H": 57.34800447594181, "Goalie H2H": 50.08328285887341 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": 2, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 152 } }, { "id": "8479066", "name": "Ryan Lomberg", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "VGK", "position": "L", "currentGP": 8, "currentSOG": 1.75, "priorSOG": 0.9298245614035088, "currentTOI": 8.8625, "currentFiveTOI": 8.84375, "ppShare": 0.0, "rate": 0.9267246526439569, "fifty": 1.106178728181435, "inputs": { "Player": "Ryan Lomberg", "Player_ID": "8479066", "Team": "CBJ", "Opponent": "VGK", "Position": "L", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 0.8895435393557676, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.0568872478304785, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 8, "Prior_GP": 57, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 10.176678445229681, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.2263412087194885, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 8.878695175438596, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 8.84375, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.0033385314438343686, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2443.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 4, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.052367424242425, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.004058686820341027, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.0, "Other_State_SOG": 0.025, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9217353117054976, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 0.9298245614035088, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:46.884212+00:00", "priorGP": 57, "currentTotalSOG": 14.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.0, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.75 SOG/game in 8 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 8 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.924, "currentIXG": 0.1155, "priorTOI": 9.044444444444444, "priorPPTOI": 0.012573099415204679, "deploymentChange": -0.18194444444444358, "ppTOIChange": -0.012573099415204679, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020559", "date": "20251220", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 10.833333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020087", "date": "20251018", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 12.3 }, { "gameId": "2025020053", "date": "20251014", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 9.133333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024021299", "date": "20250415", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 8.566666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024021220", "date": "20250405", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 11.75 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 7, "h2hSOG": 0.8, "opponentDefense": { "team": "VGK", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 275.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 25.0, "mostAllowedRank": 27, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.585792714368043, "pkSogAllowed60": 47.03517587939699, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 38.72727272727273, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 59.0, "C": 80.0, "R": 61.0, "L": 75.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.2727272727272725, "L": 6.818181818181818, "R": 5.545454545454546, "D": 5.363636363636363 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 26.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 25.75, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 25.0, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.818181818181818, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8479394", "team": "VGK", "name": "Carter Hart", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.8876404494382022, "gaa": 2.8716148845371516, "gsax": -1.5090000000000003, "goalsAllowed": 20.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 18.491, "shotsAgainst": 178.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.017200797231895, "factor": 1.017200797231895, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T22:33:02.238Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.08523056909762546, "goalHistoryGoals": 7.0, "goalHistoryShots": 133.0, "goalExpected": 0.16833037396781025, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.17122579059839962, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.15492540208708971, "goalProbability": 0.1573687062333057, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.2443304146215991, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 8, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.9749999999999999, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 10.176678445229681, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 8.84375, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.052367424242425, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.0, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.25, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9589471960166247, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9956874166464801, "Position_Factor": 1.05, "Input_GP": 8, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2443.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.2263412087194885, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 8.960233918128655, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.0033385314438343686, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.15, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.062091503267974, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9956874166464801, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 10.06993006993007, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 4, "sogPerGame": 0.25 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 1.3333333333333333 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020559", "date": "20251220", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 10.833333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020087", "date": "20251018", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 12.3 }, { "gameId": "2025020053", "date": "20251014", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 9.133333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024021299", "date": "20250415", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 8.566666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024021220", "date": "20250405", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 11.75 }, { "gameId": "2024020584", "date": "20241229", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 7.95 }, { "gameId": "2024020147", "date": "20241028", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 12.066666666666666 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "NHL.com October 20 game-specific projected lineup", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 84, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479394", "goalieName": "Carter Hart", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8479066", "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 2, "recordedAttempts": 3, "log": [ { "gameId": "2022021122", "date": "20230321", "season": 2022, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2 }, { "gameId": "2022020112", "date": "20221027", "season": 2022, "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 1 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479394", "goalieName": "Carter Hart", "opponent": "CBJ", "games": 5, "availableGames": 11, "shotsAgainst": 128.0, "goalsAgainst": 11.0, "savePct": 0.9140625, "gaa": 2.6073215696602583, "gsax": 0.11300000000000043, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020692", "date": "20260108", "goalieTeam": "VGK", "opponent": "CBJ", "shotsAgainst": 1.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 504.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 0.415 }, { "gameId": "2025020502", "date": "20251213", "goalieTeam": "VGK", "opponent": "CBJ", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.064 }, { "gameId": "2023020011", "date": "20231012", "goalieTeam": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "shotsAgainst": 33.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.608 }, { "gameId": "2022021287", "date": "20230411", "goalieTeam": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "shotsAgainst": 31.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3884.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.732 }, { "gameId": "2022020510", "date": "20221220", "goalieTeam": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "shotsAgainst": 33.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.294 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.9749999999999999, "adjustedSOG": 1.9749999999999999, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.9749999999999999, "adjustedSOG": 1.9749999999999999, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. 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Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.0, "currentIXG": 0.0, "priorTOI": 11.99076923076923, "priorPPTOI": 0.031025641025641024, "deploymentChange": -6.857435897435896, "ppTOIChange": -0.031025641025641024, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021033", "date": "20260312", "team": "STL", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 10.983333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020730", "date": "20260113", "team": "STL", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 12.6 }, { "gameId": "2024020284", "date": "20241117", "team": "STL", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 14.083333333333334 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 3, "h2hSOG": 1.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "CAR", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 246.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 22.363636363636363, "mostAllowedRank": 31, "fiveSogAllowed60": 21.75191064079953, "pkSogAllowed60": 32.87187039764359, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 33.09090909090909, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 77.0, "R": 66.0, "D": 59.0, "L": 44.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.0, "L": 4.0, "R": 6.0, "D": 5.363636363636363 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 23.0, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 7, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 22.428571428571427, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 22.363636363636363, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.0, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8481611", "team": "CAR", "name": "Pyotr Kochetkov", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 6, "savePct": 0.8991596638655462, "gaa": 1.9842910293509715, "gsax": 2.2720000000000002, "goalsAllowed": 12.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 14.272, "shotsAgainst": 119.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9828959307519136, "factor": 0.9828959307519136, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T22:32:34.088Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.0808554188784019, "goalHistoryGoals": 8.0, "goalHistoryShots": 158.0, "goalExpected": 0.0, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.0, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.0, "goalProbability": 0.0, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 1, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 0.0, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 4.783333333333333, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.016414141414142, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.0, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9235603264096603, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.85, "Position_Factor": 1.0468273008257014, "Input_GP": 1, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 460.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.63849943160288, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 10.15, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.007521515765087948, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0601092896174862, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.382352941176471, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0601092896174862, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.85, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 0, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 2.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021033", "date": "20260312", "team": "STL", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 10.983333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020730", "date": "20260113", "team": "STL", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 12.6 }, { "gameId": "2024020284", "date": "20241117", "team": "STL", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 14.083333333333334 } ], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. 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Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481611", "goalieName": "Pyotr Kochetkov", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8480281", "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 2, "log": [ { "gameId": "2024020284", "date": "20241117", "season": 2024, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481611", "goalieName": "Pyotr Kochetkov", "opponent": "STL", "games": 3, "availableGames": 3, "shotsAgainst": 60.0, "goalsAgainst": 6.0, "savePct": 0.9, "gaa": 2.610587382160986, "gsax": -0.46099999999999985, "log": [ { "gameId": "2024020284", "date": "20241117", "goalieTeam": "CAR", "opponent": "STL", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3598.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.005 }, { "gameId": "2024020084", "date": "20241019", "goalieTeam": "CAR", "opponent": "STL", "shotsAgainst": 19.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3476.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.804 }, { "gameId": "2022020369", "date": "20221201", "goalieTeam": "CAR", "opponent": "STL", "shotsAgainst": 11.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 1200.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 0.73 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.0, "adjustedSOG": 0.0, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.0, "adjustedSOG": 0.0, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.0808554188784019, "goalHistoryGoals": 8.0, "goalHistoryShots": 158.0, "goalExpected": 0.0, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.0, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.0, "goalProbability": 0.0, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12860698070627694, "modelSOG": 0.0, "historyGames": 146, "seasonGames": { "2024": 80, "2025": 65, "2026": 1 }, "historyGoals": 8.0, "historyShots": 158.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.05063291139240506, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.0808554188784019, "goalieFactor": 0.9828959307519136, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8477955", "name": "Jared McCann", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "position": "L", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 2.7, "priorSOG": 2.25, "currentTOI": 16.07333333333333, "currentFiveTOI": 12.366666666666667, "ppShare": 0.4845437616387337, "rate": 2.159001974757288, "fifty": 2.2913143204037434, "inputs": { "Player": "Jared McCann", "Player_ID": "8477955", "Team": "SEA", "Opponent": "MIN", "Position": "L", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 2.5443474932036105, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 2.8629136009635827, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 10, "Prior_GP": 52, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 8.247978436657682, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.714717665734372, "Current_PP_SOG60": 16.60261337432744, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 15.088013411567477, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 12.472724358974359, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 12.366666666666667, "Current_PP_Share": 0.4845437616387337, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.6429679912205519, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1301.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2685.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 6, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.085, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 2.705581190160024, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 2.463905027932961, "Other_State_SOG": 0.2996153846153846, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9620662188708584, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 2.25, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/seattle-kraken/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:46.923471+00:00", "priorGP": 52, "currentTotalSOG": 27.0, "currentPPTOI": 2.1683333333333334, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.70 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 4.043, "currentIXG": 0.4043, "priorTOI": 16.43397435897436, "priorPPTOI": 2.676602564102564, "deploymentChange": -0.36064102564102996, "ppTOIChange": -0.5082692307692307, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021240", "date": "20260407", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 17.916666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2025020693", "date": "20260108", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 8.0, "toi": 18.8 }, { "gameId": "2025020465", "date": "20251208", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 16.083333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2024021088", "date": "20250319", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 18.516666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020982", "date": "20250304", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 17.15 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 6, "h2hSOG": 3.2, "opponentDefense": { "team": "MIN", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 261.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 26.1, "mostAllowedRank": 21, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.40367597004765, "pkSogAllowed60": 45.30289727831431, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 40.4, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 77.0, "C": 114.0, "R": 29.0, "L": 41.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 11.4, "L": 4.1, "R": 2.9, "D": 7.7 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 24.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 28.333333333333332, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 26.1, "oppPosSogAllowed": 4.1, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8482661", "team": "MIN", "name": "Jesper Wallstedt", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 9, "savePct": 0.9152542372881356, "gaa": 2.1979363819525, "gsax": 6.934999999999999, "goalsAllowed": 20.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 26.935, "shotsAgainst": 236.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9495343259526882, "factor": 0.9495343259526882, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T18:37:27.914Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.12970682034969974, "goalHistoryGoals": 45.0, "goalHistoryShots": 346.0, "goalExpected": 0.3376413736214339, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.320602074115368, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.28654889558987556, "goalProbability": 0.27428802687978127, "goalAdjustmentPP": -1.2260868710094297, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 2.6031119467050874, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 8.247978436657682, "Current_PP_SOG60": 16.60261337432744, "Current_5v5_Min": 12.366666666666667, "Current_PP_Share": 0.4845437616387337, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.085, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 2.463905027932961, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.4, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.957587153238364, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9748801923935355, "Position_Factor": 0.9806465795507668, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1301.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2685.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.714717665734372, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 15.088013411567477, "Prior_5v5_Min": 12.720192307692308, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.6429679912205519, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9049709489993545, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.062091503267974, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9049709489993545, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9748801923935355, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 8.247978436657682, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 16.60261337432744, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 3.3333333333333335 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 3.3333333333333335 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021240", "date": "20260407", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 17.916666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2025020693", "date": "20260108", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 8.0, "toi": 18.8 }, { "gameId": "2025020465", "date": "20251208", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 16.083333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2024021088", "date": "20250319", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 18.516666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020982", "date": "20250304", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 17.15 }, { "gameId": "2024020033", "date": "20241012", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 16.216666666666665 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 103, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 52, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482661", "goalieName": "Jesper Wallstedt", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8477955", "goals": 0, "sog": 8, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 2, "recordedAttempts": 13, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021240", "date": "20260407", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 4, "attempts": 6 }, { "gameId": "2025020693", "date": "20260108", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 4, "attempts": 7 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482661", "goalieName": "Jesper Wallstedt", "opponent": "SEA", "games": 2, "availableGames": 2, "shotsAgainst": 55.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "savePct": 0.9272727272727272, "gaa": 1.9647973802701597, "gsax": 2.874, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021240", "date": "20260407", "goalieTeam": "MIN", "opponent": "SEA", "shotsAgainst": 27.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.053 }, { "gameId": "2025020693", "date": "20260108", "goalieTeam": "MIN", "opponent": "SEA", "shotsAgainst": 28.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3729.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.821 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 2.6031119467050874, "adjustedSOG": 2.6031119467050874, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 2.6031119467050874, "adjustedSOG": 2.6031119467050874, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.12970682034969974, "goalHistoryGoals": 45.0, "goalHistoryShots": 346.0, "goalExpected": 0.3376413736214339, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.3376413736214339, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.28654889558987556, "goalProbability": 0.28654889558987556, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12849241875966083, "modelSOG": 2.6031119467050874, "historyGames": 144, "seasonGames": { "2024": 82, "2025": 52, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 45.0, "historyShots": 346.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.13005780346820808, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.12970682034969974, "goalieFactor": 0.9495343259526882, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 61.06026340252076, "btb": { "id": "8477955", "name": "Jared McCann", "score": 61.06026340252076, "components": { "Goal model": 89.30232558139535, "SOG model": 89.53488372093024, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 93.72093023255815, "Goalie": 23.676470588235293, "Team H2H": 50.04895561357702, "Goalie H2H": 44.75970676079283 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 6, "goalieH2HShots": 8, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 79 } }, { "id": "8483752", "name": "Dominic James", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "UTA", "position": "C", "currentGP": 2, "currentSOG": 0.5, "priorSOG": 1.302325581395349, "currentTOI": 12.975, "currentFiveTOI": 12.108333333333333, "ppShare": 0.25060240963855424, "rate": 1.140005177876137, "fifty": 0.9034247700735872, "inputs": { "Player": "Dominic James", "Player_ID": "8483752", "Team": "TBL", "Opponent": "UTA", "Position": "C", "Current_GP": 2, "Prior_GP": 43, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.477632484514797, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.628682601445248, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 4.166666666666667, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 11.822810077519378, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 12.108333333333333, "Current_PP_Share": 0.25060240963855424, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.1322121575169912, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 104.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 415.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 2, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Measured game-matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Historical skater-team PP minute approximation, existing hybrid method", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.626018518518518, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.9949887381553874, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 1.1592913877733155, "Other_State_SOG": 0.020930232558139535, "Environment_Proxy": 0.85, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.302325581395349, "Status": "Historical input object restored from saved prior summaries", "Availability_Note": "Conditional on dressing", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.230692610347778, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 0.9716738852945079 }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:46.943567+00:00", "priorGP": 43.0, "currentTotalSOG": 1.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.8666666666666667, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.50 SOG/game in 2 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 2 games. 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MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020825", "date": "20260126", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 13.233333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020194", "date": "20251102", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 11.466666666666667 } ], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "NHL.com projected lineup", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 78, "fitPct": -9.200726630304615, "index": 90.79927336969538, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 9.230769230769232, "opponentDeltaPct": -5.689070301576365, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 18 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 6.153846153846155, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.7770704564453013, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 12 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 51.79487179487179, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.327351233427365, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 23 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 6.153846153846155, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.9245535697431251, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 12 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 5.128205128205128, "opponentDeltaPct": -16.04971857561877, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 10 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 21.538461538461537, "opponentDeltaPct": -20.1847447341527, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 3 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -9.200726630304615, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478872", "goalieName": "Karel Vejmelka", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8483752", "goals": 0, "sog": 6, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 2, "recordedAttempts": 8, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020825", "date": "20260126", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 4, "attempts": 5 }, { "gameId": "2025020194", "date": "20251102", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 3 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478872", "goalieName": "Karel Vejmelka", "opponent": "TBL", "games": 5, "availableGames": 6, "shotsAgainst": 128.0, "goalsAgainst": 18.0, "savePct": 0.859375, "gaa": 4.0538004379105415, "gsax": -5.162, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020825", "date": "20260126", "goalieTeam": "UTA", "opponent": "TBL", "shotsAgainst": 29.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.389 }, { "gameId": "2025020194", "date": "20251102", "goalieTeam": "UTA", "opponent": "TBL", "shotsAgainst": 25.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3527.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.366 }, { "gameId": "2024021145", "date": "20250327", "goalieTeam": "UTA", "opponent": "TBL", "shotsAgainst": 12.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 1754.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.834 }, { "gameId": "2024021111", "date": "20250322", "goalieTeam": "UTA", "opponent": "TBL", "shotsAgainst": 27.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.77 }, { "gameId": "2022020582", "date": "20221231", "goalieTeam": "ARI", "opponent": "TBL", "shotsAgainst": 35.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3504.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.479 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.4165, "adjustedSOG": 0.4165, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.425, "adjustedSOG": 0.4165, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.12643320616428363, "goalHistoryGoals": 7.0, "goalHistoryShots": 57.0, "goalExpected": 0.05373411261982054, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.05373411261982054, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.05231594976466069, "goalProbability": 0.05231594976466069, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12850013367792532, "modelSOG": 0.4165, "historyGames": 45, "seasonGames": { "2025": 43, "2026": 2 }, "historyGoals": 7.0, "historyShots": 57.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.12280701754385964, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.12643320616428363, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8481542", "name": "Moritz Seider", "team": "DET", "opponent": "CGY", "position": "D", "currentGP": 9, "currentSOG": 1.8888888888888888, "priorSOG": 2.2804878048780486, "currentTOI": 26.037037037037038, "currentFiveTOI": 18.020370370370372, "ppShare": 0.7161904761904762, "rate": 2.388207329263137, "fifty": 2.289801654116957, "inputs": { "Player": "Moritz Seider", "Player_ID": "8481542", "Team": "DET", "Opponent": "CGY", "Position": "D", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 2.1031133232053554, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.9320730425948491, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 9, "Prior_GP": 82, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.219710204501079, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.763923206550395, "Current_PP_SOG60": 15.957446808510639, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 8.024650888349832, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 18.51224706413731, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 18.020370370370372, "Current_PP_Share": 0.7161904761904762, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.585136991030943, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2256.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3150.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 5, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.430208333333333, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 3.6755691738957896, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 3.8890634920634914, "Other_State_SOG": 0.2635501355013551, "Environment_Proxy": 1.096640755468006, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 2.2804878048780486, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:46.964606+00:00", "priorGP": 82, "currentTotalSOG": 17.0, "currentPPTOI": 4.177777777777778, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.89 SOG/game in 9 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 9 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.9620000000000001, "currentIXG": 0.1068888888888889, "priorTOI": 25.666463414634148, "priorPPTOI": 3.1002032520325202, "deploymentChange": 0.3705736224028904, "ppTOIChange": 1.0775745257452578, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021063", "date": "20260316", "team": "DET", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 20.583333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2025020477", "date": "20251210", "team": "DET", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 28.383333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020834", "date": "20250201", "team": "DET", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 26.85 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 1.6666666666666667, "opponentDefense": { "team": "CGY", "games": 8, "sogAllowedTotal": 237.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 29.625, "mostAllowedRank": 6, "fiveSogAllowed60": 29.8086265894977, "pkSogAllowed60": 38.789888106092, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.5, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 59.0, "C": 89.0, "R": 48.0, "L": 41.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 11.125, "L": 5.125, "R": 6.0, "D": 7.375 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 30.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.5, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 29.625, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.375, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8482445", "team": "CGY", "name": "Devin Cooley", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 3, "savePct": 0.8681318681318682, "gaa": 4.010025062656641, "gsax": -2.561, "goalsAllowed": 12.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 9.439, "shotsAgainst": 91.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0263021756310153, "factor": 1.0263021756310153, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T16:24:22.507Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.05101827608373347, "goalHistoryGoals": 18.0, "goalHistoryShots": 366.0, "goalExpected": 0.08642223935536407, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.0886953322733145, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.0827931313909005, "goalProbability": 0.08487566004097476, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.20825286500742585, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 9, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.6939466792943774, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.219710204501079, "Current_PP_SOG60": 15.957446808510639, "Current_5v5_Min": 18.020370370370372, "Current_PP_Share": 0.7161904761904762, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.430208333333333, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 3.8890634920634914, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.1111111111111111, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0746225056341803, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9180727421999328, "Position_Factor": 0.9914347993653367, "Input_GP": 9, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2256.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3150.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.763923206550395, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 8.024650888349832, "Prior_5v5_Min": 19.659959349593496, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.585136991030943, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0017299327797549, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.34640522875817, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0017299327797549, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9180727421999328, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 2.219710204501079, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 15.957446808510639, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021063", "date": "20260316", "team": "DET", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 20.583333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2025020477", "date": "20251210", "team": "DET", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 28.383333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020834", "date": "20250201", "team": "DET", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 26.85 }, { "gameId": "2024020350", "date": "20241127", "team": "DET", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 27.483333333333334 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Reviewed October22 projected lineup and coach reports", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. 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Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482445", "goalieName": "Devin Cooley", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8481542", "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 3, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020477", "date": "20251210", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 3 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482445", "goalieName": "Devin Cooley", "opponent": "DET", "games": 1, "availableGames": 1, "shotsAgainst": 29.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "savePct": 0.8620689655172413, "gaa": 4.1248925809223715, "gsax": -1.0219999999999998, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020477", "date": "20251210", "goalieTeam": "CGY", "opponent": "DET", "shotsAgainst": 29.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3491.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.978 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.6939466792943774, "adjustedSOG": 1.6939466792943774, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.72851701968814, "adjustedSOG": 1.6939466792943774, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. 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Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.05, "currentIXG": 0.05, "priorTOI": 14.66985294117647, "priorPPTOI": 0.026225490196078432, "deploymentChange": 1.63014705882353, "ppTOIChange": -0.026225490196078432, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021063", "date": "20260316", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "DET", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 17.016666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020477", "date": "20251210", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "DET", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 12.633333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020834", "date": "20250201", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "DET", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 19.383333333333333 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 0.3333333333333333, "opponentDefense": { "team": "DET", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 243.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.0, "mostAllowedRank": 17, "fiveSogAllowed60": 24.49072666463971, "pkSogAllowed60": 47.14573539288113, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 41.22222222222222, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 39.0, "C": 96.0, "D": 73.0, "L": 35.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.666666666666666, "L": 3.888888888888889, "R": 4.333333333333333, "D": 8.11111111111111 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 29.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 2, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 28.5, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.0, "oppPosSogAllowed": 8.11111111111111, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8476434", "team": "DET", "name": "John Gibson", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 6, "savePct": 0.8734177215189873, "gaa": 3.5755077717634207, "gsax": -1.6310000000000002, "goalsAllowed": 20.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 18.369, "shotsAgainst": 158.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0182492009293351, "factor": 1.0182492009293351, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T17:52:44.365Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.042021582342334, "goalHistoryGoals": 2.0, "goalHistoryShots": 85.0, "goalExpected": 0.0, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.0, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.0, "goalProbability": 0.0, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 1, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 0.0, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 12.616666666666667, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.265740740740741, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.0, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9801217943191682, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9957661672519493, "Position_Factor": 1.0134661609539863, "Input_GP": 1, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 154.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 2.827035812772796, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 13.420833333333334, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.006963646811198979, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0493069863270275, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.34640522875817, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0493069863270275, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9957661672519493, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 0, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021063", "date": "20260316", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "DET", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 17.016666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020477", "date": "20251210", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "DET", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 12.633333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020834", "date": "20250201", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "DET", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 19.383333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020350", "date": "20241127", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "DET", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 11.933333333333334 } ], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Reviewed October22 projected lineup and coach reports", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 76, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. 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Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476434", "goalieName": "John Gibson", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8477810", "goals": 0, "sog": 7, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 8, "recordedAttempts": 15, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020477", "date": "20251210", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2024021203", "date": "20250403", "season": 2024, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2024020818", "date": "20250130", "season": 2024, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 3 }, { "gameId": "2024020648", "date": "20250107", "season": 2024, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2 }, { "gameId": "2022020611", "date": "20230104", "season": 2022, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 3 }, { "gameId": "2021021307", "date": "20220429", "season": 2021, "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2021021082", "date": "20220331", "season": 2021, "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 2 }, { "gameId": "2021021067", "date": "20220329", "season": 2021, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476434", "goalieName": "John Gibson", "opponent": "CGY", "games": 5, "availableGames": 25, "shotsAgainst": 152.0, "goalsAgainst": 14.0, "savePct": 0.9078947368421053, "gaa": 2.9964328180737216, "gsax": 0.16800000000000015, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021063", "date": "20260316", "goalieTeam": "DET", "opponent": "CGY", "shotsAgainst": 27.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3589.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.703 }, { "gameId": "2025020477", "date": "20251210", "goalieTeam": "DET", "opponent": "CGY", "shotsAgainst": 37.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.965 }, { "gameId": "2024021203", "date": "20250403", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "CGY", "shotsAgainst": 26.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 2381.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.555 }, { "gameId": "2024020818", "date": "20250130", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "CGY", "shotsAgainst": 29.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3525.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.091 }, { "gameId": "2024020648", "date": "20250107", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "CGY", "shotsAgainst": 33.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3725.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.854 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.0, "adjustedSOG": 0.0, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.0, "adjustedSOG": 0.0, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.042021582342334, "goalHistoryGoals": 2.0, "goalHistoryShots": 85.0, "goalExpected": 0.0, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.0, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.0, "goalProbability": 0.0, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.057739927333317904, "modelSOG": 0.0, "historyGames": 122, "seasonGames": { "2024": 53, "2025": 68, "2026": 1 }, "historyGoals": 2.0, "historyShots": 85.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.023529411764705882, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.042021582342334, "goalieFactor": 1.0182492009293351, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8483690", "name": "Noah Laba", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "OTT", "position": "C", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 0.8181818181818182, "priorSOG": 0.9864864864864865, "currentTOI": 14.913636363636364, "currentFiveTOI": 12.371212121212123, "ppShare": 0.028200253485424587, "rate": 0.9175093294920444, "fifty": 0.8349839285776931, "inputs": { "Player": "Noah Laba", "Player_ID": "8483690", "Team": "NYR", "Opponent": "OTT", "Position": "C", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 0.8594810991314279, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 0.8115192404183146, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 11, "Prior_GP": 74, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.086344151867728, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.0535818287711125, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 11.116012351124835, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 12.14025389025389, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 12.371212121212123, "Current_PP_Share": 0.028200253485424587, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.13934794152684693, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 89.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3156.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 7, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.145909090909091, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.31670271027435204, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.14511594077658718, "Other_State_SOG": 0.11547911547911549, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9343896732646498, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 0.9864864864864865, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-york-rangers/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:47.016700+00:00", "priorGP": 74, "currentTotalSOG": 9.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.13484848484848486, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.82 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.109, "currentIXG": 0.10081818181818182, "priorTOI": 13.470945945945946, "priorPPTOI": 0.5105855855855855, "deploymentChange": 1.442690417690418, "ppTOIChange": -0.37573710073710065, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020737", "date": "20260114", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 13.383333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020427", "date": "20251204", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 13.8 } ], "h2hGames": 2, "h2hAvailableGames": 2, "h2hSOG": 1.5, "opponentDefense": { "team": "OTT", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 255.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 25.5, "mostAllowedRank": 25, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.477120373069077, "pkSogAllowed60": 46.82395644283122, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 38.7, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 67.0, "C": 98.0, "R": 48.0, "L": 42.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.8, "L": 4.2, "R": 4.8, "D": 6.7 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 24.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 22.6, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 25.5, "oppPosSogAllowed": 9.8, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8477992", "team": "OTT", "name": "Jonas Johansson", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 0, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "goalsAllowed": null, "xGoalsAgainst": null, "shotsAgainst": null, "scenarioFactor": 1, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; no matching goalie statistics in this snapshot, so the goalie factor remains neutral.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T15:15:50.280Z", "idResolution": "Exact goalie name mapped to one unique MoneyPuck player ID" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.12006095700439864, "goalHistoryGoals": 9.0, "goalHistoryShots": 82.0, "goalExpected": 0.09770336039136689, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.09770336039136689, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.09308210837584606, "goalProbability": 0.09308210837584606, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 0.8137812893477715, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.086344151867728, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 12.371212121212123, "Current_PP_Share": 0.028200253485424587, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.145909090909091, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.14511594077658718, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.18181818181818182, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9604171757553249, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9920036605974645, "Position_Factor": 1.0136284014991037, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 89.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3156.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.0535818287711125, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 11.116012351124835, "Prior_5v5_Min": 11.60135135135135, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.13934794152684693, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0191828254847646, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.437908496732026, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0191828254847646, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9920036605974645, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 3.086344151867728, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020737", "date": "20260114", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 13.383333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020427", "date": "20251204", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 13.8 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 96, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 8, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477992", "goalieName": "Jonas Johansson", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8483690", "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 2, "recordedAttempts": 2, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020391", "date": "20251129", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2025020265", "date": "20251112", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 1 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477992", "goalieName": "Jonas Johansson", "opponent": "NYR", "games": 4, "availableGames": 4, "shotsAgainst": 43.0, "goalsAgainst": 6.0, "savePct": 0.8604651162790697, "gaa": 2.615328732292045, "gsax": -1.567, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020391", "date": "20251129", "goalieTeam": "TBL", "opponent": "NYR", "shotsAgainst": 13.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.688 }, { "gameId": "2025020265", "date": "20251112", "goalieTeam": "TBL", "opponent": "NYR", "shotsAgainst": 7.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 993.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 0.748 }, { "gameId": "2024021310", "date": "20250417", "goalieTeam": "TBL", "opponent": "NYR", "shotsAgainst": 22.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3573.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.983 }, { "gameId": "2021020399", "date": "20211208", "goalieTeam": "COL", "opponent": "NYR", "shotsAgainst": 1.0, "goalsAgainst": 0.0, "seconds": 93.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 0.014 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.8137812893477715, "adjustedSOG": 0.8137812893477715, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.8303890707630321, "adjustedSOG": 0.8137812893477715, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.12006095700439864, "goalHistoryGoals": 9.0, "goalHistoryShots": 82.0, "goalExpected": 0.09969730652180295, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.09969730652180295, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.09488865212247555, "goalProbability": 0.09488865212247555, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12851094174800554, "modelSOG": 0.8137812893477715, "historyGames": 85, "seasonGames": { "2025": 74, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 9.0, "historyShots": 82.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.10975609756097561, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.12006095700439864, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 43.751851964296556, "btb": { "id": "8483690", "name": "Noah Laba", "score": 43.751851964296556, "components": { "Goal model": 34.651162790697676, "SOG model": 17.441860465116278, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 23.953488372093023, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 57.027850304612706, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 2, "goalieH2HShots": 0, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 294 } }, { "id": "8481527", "name": "Kaedan Korczak", "team": "PIT", "opponent": "NSH", "position": "D", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 1.0, "priorSOG": 0.7692307692307693, "currentTOI": 18.19, "currentFiveTOI": 15.486666666666668, "ppShare": 0.004081632653061225, "rate": 0.8440113050926796, "fifty": 0.8590347185477907, "inputs": { "Player": "Kaedan Korczak", "Player_ID": "8481527", "Team": "PIT", "Opponent": "NSH", "Position": "D", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 0.865655683217635, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 0.9625138753266891, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 10, "Prior_GP": 78, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.099440378820491, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 2.968926909045163, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 15.426628205128205, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 15.486666666666668, "Current_PP_Share": 0.004081632653061225, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.00945229206098771, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 12.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2940.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 6, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.130208333333334, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.029205406345351997, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.020939625850340142, "Other_State_SOG": 0.03153846153846154, "Environment_Proxy": 1.0738773444064478, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 0.7692307692307693, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/pittsburgh-penguins/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:47.037532+00:00", "priorGP": 78, "currentTotalSOG": 10.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.02, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.00 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. 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MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020765", "date": "20260117", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 17.766666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020623", "date": "20251231", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 20.216666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2024021274", "date": "20250412", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 15.15 }, { "gameId": "2024021163", "date": "20250329", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 18.316666666666666 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 88, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. 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Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477424", "goalieName": "Juuse Saros", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8481527", "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 3, "log": [ { "gameId": "2023020680", "date": "20240115", "season": 2023, "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 3 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477424", "goalieName": "Juuse Saros", "opponent": "PIT", "games": 5, "availableGames": 13, "shotsAgainst": 131.0, "goalsAgainst": 15.0, "savePct": 0.8854961832061069, "gaa": 3.034219250435467, "gsax": -2.5649999999999995, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020296", "date": "20251116", "goalieTeam": "NSH", "opponent": "PIT", "shotsAgainst": 21.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3562.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.064 }, { "gameId": "2025020281", "date": "20251114", "goalieTeam": "NSH", "opponent": "PIT", "shotsAgainst": 17.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3637.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.622 }, { "gameId": "2024020830", "date": "20250201", "goalieTeam": "NSH", "opponent": "PIT", "shotsAgainst": 35.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3527.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.258 }, { "gameId": "2024020515", "date": "20241219", "goalieTeam": "NSH", "opponent": "PIT", "shotsAgainst": 20.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3657.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.863 }, { "gameId": "2023021289", "date": "20240415", "goalieTeam": "NSH", "opponent": "PIT", "shotsAgainst": 38.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3414.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.628 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.0497825227362596, "adjustedSOG": 1.0497825227362596, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.0497825227362596, "adjustedSOG": 1.0497825227362596, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. 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Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476434", "goalieName": "John Gibson", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8481028", "goals": 0, "sog": 13, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 5, "recordedAttempts": 19, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021063", "date": "20260316", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2 }, { "gameId": "2024021203", "date": "20250403", "season": 2024, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2 }, { "gameId": "2024020818", "date": "20250130", "season": 2024, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2 }, { "gameId": "2024020648", "date": "20250107", "season": 2024, "goals": 0, "sog": 4, "attempts": 7 }, { "gameId": "2023021268", "date": "20240412", "season": 2023, "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 6 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476434", "goalieName": "John Gibson", "opponent": "CGY", "games": 5, "availableGames": 25, "shotsAgainst": 152.0, "goalsAgainst": 14.0, "savePct": 0.9078947368421053, "gaa": 2.9964328180737216, "gsax": 0.16800000000000015, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021063", "date": "20260316", "goalieTeam": "DET", "opponent": "CGY", "shotsAgainst": 27.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3589.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.703 }, { "gameId": "2025020477", "date": "20251210", "goalieTeam": "DET", "opponent": "CGY", "shotsAgainst": 37.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.965 }, { "gameId": "2024021203", "date": "20250403", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "CGY", "shotsAgainst": 26.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 2381.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.555 }, { "gameId": "2024020818", "date": "20250130", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "CGY", "shotsAgainst": 29.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3525.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.091 }, { "gameId": "2024020648", "date": "20250107", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "CGY", "shotsAgainst": 33.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3725.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.854 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.9906327452981483, "adjustedSOG": 1.9906327452981483, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.9906327452981483, "adjustedSOG": 1.9906327452981483, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.07605376948282772, "goalHistoryGoals": 6.0, "goalHistoryShots": 148.0, "goalExpected": 0.15139512393587387, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.15139512393587387, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.14049198063561158, "goalProbability": 0.14049198063561158, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12861334831741275, "modelSOG": 1.9906327452981483, "historyGames": 111, "seasonGames": { "2024": 81, "2025": 22, "2026": 8 }, "historyGoals": 6.0, "historyShots": 148.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.04054054054054054, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.07605376948282772, "goalieFactor": 1.0182492009293351, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 44.62002001506609, "btb": { "id": "8481028", "name": "Martin Pospisil", "score": 44.62002001506609, "components": { "Goal model": 52.55813953488372, "SOG model": 75.81395348837209, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 41.395348837209305, "Goalie": 2.5, "Team H2H": 45.99317131954208, "Goalie H2H": 40.291838520184974 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 3, "goalieH2HShots": 13, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 279 } }, { "id": "8481719", "name": "Max Crozier", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "UTA", "position": "D", "currentGP": 5, "currentSOG": 1.6, "priorSOG": 1.3142857142857143, "currentTOI": 16.759999999999998, "currentFiveTOI": 15.723333333333333, "ppShare": 0.02484113229347198, "rate": 1.2139426930237351, "fifty": 1.3056003158102503, "inputs": { "Player": "Max Crozier", "Player_ID": "8481719", "Team": "TBL", "Opponent": "UTA", "Position": "D", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.3602297144177733, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.5680743215477109, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 5, "Prior_GP": 35, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 6.105575577697689, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.210869136127377, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 15.34890476190476, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 15.723333333333333, "Current_PP_Share": 0.02484113229347198, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.004700002292684046, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 43.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1731.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 3, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.626018518518518, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.08696356590030961, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.11491553801056978, "Other_State_SOG": 0.05142857142857143, "Environment_Proxy": 0.85, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.3142857142857143, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:47.078045+00:00", "priorGP": 35.0, "currentTotalSOG": 8.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.14333333333333334, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.60 SOG/game in 5 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 5 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.293, "currentIXG": 0.0586, "priorTOI": 16.01142857142857, "priorPPTOI": 0.02380952380952381, "deploymentChange": 0.7485714285714273, "ppTOIChange": 0.11952380952380953, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020825", "date": "20260126", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 19.9 } ], "h2hGames": 1, "h2hAvailableGames": 1, "h2hSOG": 1.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "UTA", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 225.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 22.5, "mostAllowedRank": 30, "fiveSogAllowed60": 21.06050814598143, "pkSogAllowed60": 53.47313237221494, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 35.6, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 58.0, "C": 87.0, "R": 52.0, "L": 28.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 8.7, "L": 2.8, "R": 5.2, "D": 5.8 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 22.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 20.25, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 22.5, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.8, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8478872", "team": "UTA", "name": "Karel Vejmelka", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 8, "savePct": 0.8793103448275862, "gaa": 2.8927833473635878, "gsax": -2.0919999999999987, "goalsAllowed": 21.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 18.908, "shotsAgainst": 174.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0222659253207917, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Likely starter per Daily Faceoff; no Model Goal adjustment until confirmed.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T17:11:59.953Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.041810086597368214, "goalHistoryGoals": 1.0, "goalHistoryShots": 62.0, "goalExpected": 0.055724483416972344, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.055724483416972344, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.05420031650681984, "goalProbability": 0.05420031650681984, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 5, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.3327999999999998, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 6.105575577697689, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 15.723333333333333, "Current_PP_Share": 0.02484113229347198, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.626018518518518, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.11491553801056978, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9114659361351877, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.05376529706562, "Position_Factor": 0.9944572953736655, "Input_GP": 5, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 43.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1731.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.210869136127377, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 14.475238095238096, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.004700002292684046, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.8947508896797154, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.34640522875817, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.7857099067946239, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.05376529706562, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 6.105575577697689, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 1.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020825", "date": "20260126", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 19.9 } ], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "NHL.com projected lineup", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 11, "priorAttempts": 63, "fitPct": -7.1430031068458675, "index": 92.85699689315413, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 62.943722943722946, "opponentDeltaPct": -5.689070301576365, "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 39 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 1.9047619047619049, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.7770704564453013, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 2.5396825396825395, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.327351233427365, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 12.813852813852813, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.9245535697431251, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 18.528138528138527, "opponentDeltaPct": -16.04971857561877, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 12 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 1.2698412698412698, "opponentDeltaPct": -20.1847447341527, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -7.1430031068458675, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478872", "goalieName": "Karel Vejmelka", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8481719", "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 1, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020825", "date": "20260126", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478872", "goalieName": "Karel Vejmelka", "opponent": "TBL", "games": 5, "availableGames": 6, "shotsAgainst": 128.0, "goalsAgainst": 18.0, "savePct": 0.859375, "gaa": 4.0538004379105415, "gsax": -5.162, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020825", "date": "20260126", "goalieTeam": "UTA", "opponent": "TBL", "shotsAgainst": 29.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.389 }, { "gameId": "2025020194", "date": "20251102", "goalieTeam": "UTA", "opponent": "TBL", "shotsAgainst": 25.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3527.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.366 }, { "gameId": "2024021145", "date": "20250327", "goalieTeam": "UTA", "opponent": "TBL", "shotsAgainst": 12.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 1754.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.834 }, { "gameId": "2024021111", "date": "20250322", "goalieTeam": "UTA", "opponent": "TBL", "shotsAgainst": 27.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.77 }, { "gameId": "2022020582", "date": "20221231", "goalieTeam": "ARI", "opponent": "TBL", "shotsAgainst": 35.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3504.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.479 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.3327999999999998, "adjustedSOG": 1.3327999999999998, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.3599999999999999, "adjustedSOG": 1.3327999999999998, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.041810086597368214, "goalHistoryGoals": 1.0, "goalHistoryShots": 62.0, "goalExpected": 0.056861717772420765, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.056861717772420765, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.05527530102973838, "goalProbability": 0.05527530102973838, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.0577323402877365, "modelSOG": 1.3327999999999998, "historyGames": 45, "seasonGames": { "2024": 5, "2025": 35, "2026": 5 }, "historyGoals": 1.0, "historyShots": 62.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.016129032258064516, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.041810086597368214, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8482460", "name": "Matt Rempe", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "OTT", "position": "R", "currentGP": 2, "currentSOG": 0.5, "priorSOG": 0.5769230769230769, "currentTOI": 6.766666666666667, "currentFiveTOI": 6.766666666666667, "ppShare": 0.0, "rate": 0.48967676859082077, "fifty": 0.47328660807889283, "inputs": { "Player": "Matt Rempe", "Player_ID": "8482460", "Team": "NYR", "Opponent": "OTT", "Position": "C", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 0.6023845784097309, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 0.7227984108843324, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 2, "Prior_GP": 26, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.433497536945813, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.202007625865692, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 7.20801282051282, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 6.766666666666667, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.08292505169481328, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 511.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 1, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.145909090909091, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.12801743321413378, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.0, "Other_State_SOG": 0.0, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9343896732646498, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 0.5769230769230769, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-york-rangers/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:47.099017+00:00", "priorGP": 26, "currentTotalSOG": 1.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.0, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.50 SOG/game in 2 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 2 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.033, "currentIXG": 0.0165, "priorTOI": 8.607692307692307, "priorPPTOI": 0.3038461538461539, "deploymentChange": -1.8410256410256407, "ppTOIChange": -0.3038461538461539, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2024021003", "date": "20250308", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 8.266666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020750", "date": "20250121", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 9.2 } ], "h2hGames": 2, "h2hAvailableGames": 2, "h2hSOG": 2.5, "opponentDefense": { "team": "OTT", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 255.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 25.5, "mostAllowedRank": 25, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.477120373069077, "pkSogAllowed60": 46.82395644283122, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 38.7, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 67.0, "C": 98.0, "R": 48.0, "L": 42.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.8, "L": 4.2, "R": 4.8, "D": 6.7 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 24.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 22.6, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 25.5, "oppPosSogAllowed": 4.8, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8477992", "team": "OTT", "name": "Jonas Johansson", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 0, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "goalsAllowed": null, "xGoalsAgainst": null, "shotsAgainst": null, "scenarioFactor": 1, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; no matching goalie statistics in this snapshot, so the goalie factor remains neutral.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T15:15:50.280Z", "idResolution": "Exact goalie name mapped to one unique MoneyPuck player ID" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.11542073352568862, "goalHistoryGoals": 4.0, "goalHistoryShots": 46.0, "goalExpected": 0.053496563917570406, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.053496563917570406, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.05209080190765225, "goalProbability": 0.05209080190765225, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 2, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 0.4634918032786886, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.433497536945813, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 6.766666666666667, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.145909090909091, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.0, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9604171757553249, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9920036605974645, "Position_Factor": 0.9940613950498232, "Input_GP": 2, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 511.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.202007625865692, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 8.237820512820512, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.08292505169481328, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9459016393442623, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.382352941176471, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9459016393442623, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9920036605974645, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 4.433497536945813, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2024021003", "date": "20250308", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 8.266666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020750", "date": "20250121", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 9.2 } ], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 24, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477992", "goalieName": "Jonas Johansson", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8482460", "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 4, "log": [ { "gameId": "2024021310", "date": "20250417", "season": 2024, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 4 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477992", "goalieName": "Jonas Johansson", "opponent": "NYR", "games": 4, "availableGames": 4, "shotsAgainst": 43.0, "goalsAgainst": 6.0, "savePct": 0.8604651162790697, "gaa": 2.615328732292045, "gsax": -1.567, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020391", "date": "20251129", "goalieTeam": "TBL", "opponent": "NYR", "shotsAgainst": 13.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.688 }, { "gameId": "2025020265", "date": "20251112", "goalieTeam": "TBL", "opponent": "NYR", "shotsAgainst": 7.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 993.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 0.748 }, { "gameId": "2024021310", "date": "20250417", "goalieTeam": "TBL", "opponent": "NYR", "shotsAgainst": 22.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3573.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.983 }, { "gameId": "2021020399", "date": "20211208", "goalieTeam": "COL", "opponent": "NYR", "shotsAgainst": 1.0, "goalsAgainst": 0.0, "seconds": 93.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 0.014 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.4634918032786886, "adjustedSOG": 0.4634918032786886, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.47295081967213126, "adjustedSOG": 0.4634918032786886, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.11542073352568862, "goalHistoryGoals": 4.0, "goalHistoryShots": 46.0, "goalExpected": 0.05458833052813307, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.05458833052813307, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.053125132793272516, "goalProbability": 0.053125132793272516, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12851427094750537, "modelSOG": 0.4634918032786886, "historyGames": 70, "seasonGames": { "2024": 42, "2025": 26, "2026": 2 }, "historyGoals": 4.0, "historyShots": 46.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.08695652173913043, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.11542073352568862, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8475913", "name": "Mark Stone", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "CBJ", "position": "R", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 2.0, "priorSOG": 2.1666666666666665, "currentTOI": 18.203030303030303, "currentFiveTOI": 12.833333333333332, "ppShare": 0.7060074428495481, "rate": 2.2110199059527798, "fifty": 2.0534867828192955, "inputs": { "Player": "Mark Stone", "Player_ID": "8475913", "Team": "VGK", "Opponent": "CBJ", "Position": "R", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 2.4822960551530526, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 2.3786988673390352, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 11, "Prior_GP": 60, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.250295159386068, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.878913731577993, "Current_PP_SOG60": 10.843373493975903, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 11.250950249176451, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 13.11675, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 12.833333333333332, "Current_PP_Share": 0.7060074428495481, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.7201851060546711, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2656.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3762.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 6, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.392708333333333, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 3.830229021204153, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 3.807292220450115, "Other_State_SOG": 0.20136363636363636, "Environment_Proxy": 1.0241190783267258, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 2.1666666666666665, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/vegas-golden-knights/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:47.118880+00:00", "priorGP": 60, "currentTotalSOG": 22.0, "currentPPTOI": 4.024242424242424, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.00 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 5.008, "currentIXG": 0.4552727272727273, "priorTOI": 19.215, "priorPPTOI": 3.288611111111111, "deploymentChange": -1.0119696969696967, "ppTOIChange": 0.7356313131313135, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020692", "date": "20260108", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 22.533333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2025020502", "date": "20251213", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 18.233333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024021045", "date": "20250313", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 18.333333333333332 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 2.3333333333333335, "opponentDefense": { "team": "CBJ", "games": 8, "sogAllowedTotal": 222.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.75, "mostAllowedRank": 13, "fiveSogAllowed60": 26.021128266541208, "pkSogAllowed60": 45.718967636214664, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 43.125, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 66.0, "D": 61.0, "R": 49.0, "L": 46.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 8.25, "L": 5.75, "R": 6.125, "D": 7.625 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 28.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.666666666666668, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.75, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.125, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8475660", "team": "CBJ", "name": "Cam Talbot", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 4, "savePct": 0.8674698795180723, "gaa": 3.3959351685104195, "gsax": -0.8840000000000003, "goalsAllowed": 11.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 10.116, "shotsAgainst": 83.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0106708091071457, "factor": 1.0106708091071457, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T15:32:32.146Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.1771098780616552, "goalHistoryGoals": 55.0, "goalHistoryShots": 283.0, "goalExpected": 0.34794742615152363, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.35166030671530923, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.29386400047443906, "goalProbability": 0.2964809379080885, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.26169374336494355, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.9645850923707187, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.250295159386068, "Current_PP_SOG60": 10.843373493975903, "Current_5v5_Min": 12.833333333333332, "Current_PP_Share": 0.7060074428495481, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.392708333333333, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 3.807292220450115, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.36363636363636365, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0080456056426796, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9827600403123256, "Position_Factor": 1.0129856632588874, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2656.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3762.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.878913731577993, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 11.250950249176451, "Prior_5v5_Min": 13.778055555555556, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.7201851060546711, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0613236187006678, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.382352941176471, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0613236187006678, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9827600403123256, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 4.250295159386068, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 10.843373493975903, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 3.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020692", "date": "20260108", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 22.533333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2025020502", "date": "20251213", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 18.233333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024021045", "date": "20250313", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 18.333333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2024020820", "date": "20250130", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 19.466666666666665 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 126, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 60, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475660", "goalieName": "Cam Talbot", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8475913", "goals": 4, "sog": 20, "shootingPct": 0.2, "gamesWithAttempts": 7, "recordedAttempts": 28, "log": [ { "gameId": "2024021115", "date": "20250322", "season": 2024, "goals": 1, "sog": 3, "attempts": 4 }, { "gameId": "2023020544", "date": "20231228", "season": 2023, "goals": 0, "sog": 5, "attempts": 5 }, { "gameId": "2023020192", "date": "20231108", "season": 2023, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 4 }, { "gameId": "2023020125", "date": "20231028", "season": 2023, "goals": 1, "sog": 3, "attempts": 5 }, { "gameId": "2022020315", "date": "20221123", "season": 2022, "goals": 1, "sog": 5, "attempts": 6 }, { "gameId": "2022020163", "date": "20221103", "season": 2022, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2021020435", "date": "20211212", "season": 2021, "goals": 1, "sog": 1, "attempts": 3 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475660", "goalieName": "Cam Talbot", "opponent": "VGK", "games": 5, "availableGames": 22, "shotsAgainst": 160.0, "goalsAgainst": 16.0, "savePct": 0.9, "gaa": 3.176704169424222, "gsax": 0.6329999999999996, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020970", "date": "20260304", "goalieTeam": "DET", "opponent": "VGK", "shotsAgainst": 25.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3728.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.397 }, { "gameId": "2024021115", "date": "20250322", "goalieTeam": "DET", "opponent": "VGK", "shotsAgainst": 35.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3491.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.784 }, { "gameId": "2023020544", "date": "20231228", "goalieTeam": "LAK", "opponent": "VGK", "shotsAgainst": 32.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3478.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.46 }, { "gameId": "2023020192", "date": "20231108", "goalieTeam": "LAK", "opponent": "VGK", "shotsAgainst": 38.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.55 }, { "gameId": "2023020125", "date": "20231028", "goalieTeam": "LAK", "opponent": "VGK", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3835.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.442 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.9645850923707187, "adjustedSOG": 1.9645850923707187, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 2.004678665684407, "adjustedSOG": 1.9645850923707187, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.1771098780616552, "goalHistoryGoals": 55.0, "goalHistoryShots": 283.0, "goalExpected": 0.355048394032167, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.35883704766868285, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.2988604885805382, "goalProbability": 0.3015118376471094, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.2651349066571218 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12833083297613945, "modelSOG": 1.9645850923707187, "historyGames": 137, "seasonGames": { "2024": 66, "2025": 60, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 55.0, "historyShots": 283.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.19434628975265017, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.1771098780616552, "goalieFactor": 1.0106708091071457, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 61.0357601040486, "btb": { "id": "8475913", "name": "Mark Stone", "score": 61.0357601040486, "components": { "Goal model": 90.69767441860465, "SOG model": 75.34883720930233, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 96.27906976744185, "Goalie": 13.088235294117647, "Team H2H": 49.66430436404327, "Goalie H2H": 57.42407199100113 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": 20, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 80 } }, { "id": "8478469", "name": "Thomas Chabot", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "NYR", "position": "D", "currentGP": 9, "currentSOG": 2.111111111111111, "priorSOG": 1.736842105263158, "currentTOI": 25.327777777777776, "currentFiveTOI": 18.631481481481483, "ppShare": 0.4501784243755147, "rate": 1.7595313812341085, "fifty": 1.8242276419993735, "inputs": { "Player": "Thomas Chabot", "Player_ID": "8478469", "Team": "OTT", "Opponent": "NYR", "Position": "D", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.954065664384357, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 2.263784685879048, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 9, "Prior_GP": 57, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.293807772587218, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.106056598783391, "Current_PP_SOG60": 10.975609756097562, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 8.561772437101014, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 18.348703703703706, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 18.631481481481483, "Current_PP_Share": 0.4501784243755147, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.47279347096998803, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1640.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3643.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 5, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 6.001439393939394, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 2.7424353798071346, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 2.7017185303487805, "Other_State_SOG": 0.195906432748538, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9482920490252438, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.736842105263158, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/ottawa-senators/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:47.138778+00:00", "priorGP": 57, "currentTotalSOG": 19.0, "currentPPTOI": 3.0370370370370368, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.11 SOG/game in 9 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 9 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.034, "currentIXG": 0.11488888888888889, "priorTOI": 22.57894736842105, "priorPPTOI": 2.335964912280702, "deploymentChange": 2.7488304093567244, "ppTOIChange": 0.701072124756335, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021119", "date": "20260323", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "NYR", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 10.35 }, { "gameId": "2025020737", "date": "20260114", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "NYR", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 23.2 }, { "gameId": "2024021003", "date": "20250308", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "NYR", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 24.033333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2024020750", "date": "20250121", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "NYR", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 25.533333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2024020170", "date": "20241101", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "NYR", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 26.816666666666666 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 5, "h2hSOG": 1.8, "opponentDefense": { "team": "NYR", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 283.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 25.727272727272727, "mostAllowedRank": 23, "fiveSogAllowed60": 24.897512126427788, "pkSogAllowed60": 40.17358958462492, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 39.81818181818182, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 106.0, "D": 82.0, "R": 57.0, "L": 38.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.636363636363637, "L": 3.4545454545454546, "R": 5.181818181818182, "D": 7.454545454545454 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 27.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.4, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 25.727272727272727, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.454545454545454, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8482193", "team": "NYR", "name": "Dylan Garand", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.9285714285714286, "gaa": 1.846928781306842, "gsax": 4.030999999999999, "goalsAllowed": 11.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 15.030999999999999, "shotsAgainst": 154.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9674872583533348, "factor": 0.9674872583533348, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T15:37:42.216Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.0573490579096708, "goalHistoryGoals": 17.0, "goalHistoryShots": 297.0, "goalExpected": 0.11586862070305308, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.11210141417317927, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.10940777900837281, "goalProbability": 0.10604640666140962, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.33613723469631956, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 9, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 2.020410185038351, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.293807772587218, "Current_PP_SOG60": 10.975609756097562, "Current_5v5_Min": 18.631481481481483, "Current_PP_Share": 0.4501784243755147, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 6.001439393939394, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 2.7017185303487805, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.2222222222222222, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9864268368728425, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9197863814450764, "Position_Factor": 1.0097164911259575, "Input_GP": 9, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1640.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3643.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.106056598783391, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 8.561772437101014, "Prior_5v5_Min": 17.68888888888889, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.47279347096998803, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0077105575326217, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.34640522875817, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0077105575326217, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9197863814450764, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 4.293807772587218, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 10.975609756097562, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 2.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021119", "date": "20260323", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "NYR", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 10.35 }, { "gameId": "2025020737", "date": "20260114", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "NYR", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 23.2 }, { "gameId": "2024021003", "date": "20250308", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "NYR", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 24.033333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2024020750", "date": "20250121", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "NYR", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 25.533333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2024020170", "date": "20241101", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "NYR", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 26.816666666666666 } ], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "lineupReviewedAt": "2026-10-22T12:25:32.333917+00:00", "lineupReviewNote": "Reported forward, defense and PP chart reviewed October22; matches existing assignments. Final dressing unconfirmed. Dated statistical inputs now include October21.", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 113, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 25, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482193", "goalieName": "Dylan Garand", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8478469", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482193", "goalieName": "Dylan Garand", "opponent": "OTT", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "No appearance found in the supplied historical files; this does not establish that the goalie has never faced the team." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 2.020410185038351, "adjustedSOG": 2.020410185038351, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 2.020410185038351, "adjustedSOG": 2.020410185038351, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.0573490579096708, "goalHistoryGoals": 17.0, "goalHistoryShots": 297.0, "goalExpected": 0.11586862070305308, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.11210141417317927, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.10940777900837281, "goalProbability": 0.10604640666140962, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.33613723469631956 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05767575990139306, "modelSOG": 2.020410185038351, "historyGames": 146, "seasonGames": { "2024": 80, "2025": 57, "2026": 9 }, "historyGoals": 17.0, "historyShots": 297.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.05723905723905724, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.0573490579096708, "goalieFactor": 0.9674872583533348, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8484166", "name": "Adam Fantilli", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "VGK", "position": "C", "currentGP": 8, "currentSOG": 3.125, "priorSOG": 2.6097560975609757, "currentTOI": 20.627083333333335, "currentFiveTOI": 15.225, "ppShare": 0.738436348751535, "rate": 2.4760403322143967, "fifty": 2.5574619874564783, "inputs": { "Player": "Adam Fantilli", "Player_ID": "8484166", "Team": "CBJ", "Opponent": "VGK", "Position": "C", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 2.431794568799872, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 2.394758025362447, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 8, "Prior_GP": 82, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 6.896551724137931, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.819437501644347, "Current_PP_SOG60": 15.964523281596453, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 13.047775947281714, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 15.292743902439023, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 15.225, "Current_PP_Share": 0.738436348751535, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.5696588616207596, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1804.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2443.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 4, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.052367424242425, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 2.7872308873189633, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 2.9924154045572386, "Other_State_SOG": 0.30091463414634156, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9217353117054976, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 2.6097560975609757, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:47.158745+00:00", "priorGP": 82, "currentTotalSOG": 25.0, "currentPPTOI": 3.7583333333333333, "volumeNote": "Observed 3.12 SOG/game in 8 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 8 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 2.2560000000000002, "currentIXG": 0.28200000000000003, "priorTOI": 18.902439024390244, "priorPPTOI": 2.4674796747967482, "deploymentChange": 1.7246443089430912, "ppTOIChange": 1.290853658536585, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020692", "date": "20260108", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 18.2 }, { "gameId": "2025020502", "date": "20251213", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 18.7 }, { "gameId": "2024021045", "date": "20250313", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 17.516666666666666 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 2.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "VGK", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 275.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 25.0, "mostAllowedRank": 27, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.585792714368043, "pkSogAllowed60": 47.03517587939699, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 38.72727272727273, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 59.0, "C": 80.0, "R": 61.0, "L": 75.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.2727272727272725, "L": 6.818181818181818, "R": 5.545454545454546, "D": 5.363636363636363 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 26.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 25.75, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 25.0, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.2727272727272725, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8479394", "team": "VGK", "name": "Carter Hart", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.8876404494382022, "gaa": 2.8716148845371516, "gsax": -1.5090000000000003, "goalsAllowed": 20.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 18.491, "shotsAgainst": 178.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.017200797231895, "factor": 1.017200797231895, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T22:33:02.238Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.1317889867008269, "goalHistoryGoals": 57.0, "goalHistoryShots": 430.0, "goalExpected": 0.3568159008264432, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.36295341878567483, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.3000986628676289, "goalProbability": 0.30438116448550767, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.4282501617878798, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 8, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 2.707478900618973, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 6.896551724137931, "Current_PP_SOG60": 15.964523281596453, "Current_5v5_Min": 15.225, "Current_PP_Share": 0.738436348751535, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.052367424242425, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 2.9924154045572386, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.375, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9589471960166247, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9956874166464801, "Position_Factor": 0.9789803456008442, "Input_GP": 8, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1804.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2443.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.819437501644347, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 13.047775947281714, "Prior_5v5_Min": 15.450813008130082, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.5696588616207596, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.8798311568394671, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.437908496732026, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.8798311568394671, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9956874166464801, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 7.004939380332286, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 8.430913348946136, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 4.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020692", "date": "20260108", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 18.2 }, { "gameId": "2025020502", "date": "20251213", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 18.7 }, { "gameId": "2024021045", "date": "20250313", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 17.516666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020820", "date": "20250130", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "away", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 18.2 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "NHL.com October 20 game-specific projected lineup", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 222, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 58, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479394", "goalieName": "Carter Hart", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8484166", "goals": 0, "sog": 5, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 2, "recordedAttempts": 6, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020502", "date": "20251213", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 3 }, { "gameId": "2023020011", "date": "20231012", "season": 2023, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 3 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479394", "goalieName": "Carter Hart", "opponent": "CBJ", "games": 5, "availableGames": 11, "shotsAgainst": 128.0, "goalsAgainst": 11.0, "savePct": 0.9140625, "gaa": 2.6073215696602583, "gsax": 0.11300000000000043, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020692", "date": "20260108", "goalieTeam": "VGK", "opponent": "CBJ", "shotsAgainst": 1.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 504.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 0.415 }, { "gameId": "2025020502", "date": "20251213", "goalieTeam": "VGK", "opponent": "CBJ", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.064 }, { "gameId": "2023020011", "date": "20231012", "goalieTeam": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "shotsAgainst": 33.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.608 }, { "gameId": "2022021287", "date": "20230411", "goalieTeam": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "shotsAgainst": 31.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3884.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.732 }, { "gameId": "2022020510", "date": "20221220", "goalieTeam": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "shotsAgainst": 33.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.294 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 2.707478900618973, "adjustedSOG": 2.707478900618973, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 2.707478900618973, "adjustedSOG": 2.707478900618973, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.1317889867008269, "goalHistoryGoals": 57.0, "goalHistoryShots": 430.0, "goalExpected": 0.3568159008264432, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.3568159008264432, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.3000986628676289, "goalProbability": 0.3000986628676289, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12848162951438255, "modelSOG": 2.707478900618973, "historyGames": 172, "seasonGames": { "2024": 82, "2025": 82, "2026": 8 }, "historyGoals": 57.0, "historyShots": 430.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.1325581395348837, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.1317889867008269, "goalieFactor": 1.017200797231895, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 59.62888313319004, "btb": { "id": "8484166", "name": "Adam Fantilli", "score": 59.62888313319004, "components": { "Goal model": 91.3953488372093, "SOG model": 91.16279069767442, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 79.06976744186046, "Goalie": 18.38235294117647, "Team H2H": 48.39612085042894, "Goalie H2H": 47.87043664996421 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": 5, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 92 } }, { "id": "8471724", "name": "Kris Letang", "team": "PIT", "opponent": "NSH", "position": "D", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 2.1, "priorSOG": 1.4054054054054055, "currentTOI": 20.063333333333333, "currentFiveTOI": 16.99833333333333, "ppShare": 0.30918367346938774, "rate": 1.524021752378378, "fifty": 1.8545751887236872, "inputs": { "Player": "Kris Letang", "Player_ID": "8471724", "Team": "PIT", "Opponent": "NSH", "Position": "D", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.6132637604715534, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 2.0833002042183457, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 10, "Prior_GP": 74, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 6.353564074909305, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.592097385751347, "Current_PP_SOG60": 11.881188118811881, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 4.891304347826087, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 17.316130630630628, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 16.99833333333333, "Current_PP_Share": 0.30918367346938774, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.3386720977109107, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 909.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2940.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 6, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.130208333333334, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 1.6315611860974844, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 1.5861766581632655, "Other_State_SOG": 0.17027027027027028, "Environment_Proxy": 1.0738773444064478, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.4054054054054055, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/pittsburgh-penguins/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:47.178704+00:00", "priorGP": 74, "currentTotalSOG": 21.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.5150000000000001, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.10 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.024, "currentIXG": 0.1024, "priorTOI": 21.68243243243243, "priorPPTOI": 1.491891891891892, "deploymentChange": -1.619099099099099, "ppTOIChange": 0.02310810810810815, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020296", "date": "20251116", "team": "PIT", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 20.466666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2025020281", "date": "20251114", "team": "PIT", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 22.766666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020830", "date": "20250201", "team": "PIT", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 22.433333333333334 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 1.3333333333333333, "opponentDefense": { "team": "NSH", "games": 8, "sogAllowedTotal": 233.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 29.125, "mostAllowedRank": 8, "fiveSogAllowed60": 26.902173913043477, "pkSogAllowed60": 37.776914108045084, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 45.125, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 82.0, "L": 44.0, "D": 67.0, "R": 40.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.25, "L": 5.5, "R": 5.0, "D": 8.375 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 27.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 3, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 30.0, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 29.125, "oppPosSogAllowed": 8.375, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8477424", "team": "NSH", "name": "Juuse Saros", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.9061032863849765, "gaa": 2.8192176670973805, "gsax": 1.6679999999999993, "goalsAllowed": 20.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 21.668, "shotsAgainst": 213.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9906396066739361, "factor": 0.9906396066739361, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T15:56:16.281Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.04570213146983963, "goalHistoryGoals": 12.0, "goalHistoryShots": 289.0, "goalExpected": 0.10037878974963446, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.09943920479598362, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.0955052601974797, "goalProbability": 0.09465501117126036, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.08502490262193296, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 2.196369983659904, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 6.353564074909305, "Current_PP_SOG60": 11.881188118811881, "Current_5v5_Min": 16.99833333333333, "Current_PP_Share": 0.30918367346938774, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.130208333333334, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.5861766581632655, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0235094259979116, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9053307495740243, "Position_Factor": 1.007338478796179, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 909.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2940.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.592097385751347, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 4.891304347826087, "Prior_5v5_Min": 18.057657657657657, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.3386720977109107, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0622281534203242, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.34640522875817, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0622281534203242, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9053307495740243, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 6.353564074909305, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 11.881188118811881, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 3.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020296", "date": "20251116", "team": "PIT", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 20.466666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2025020281", "date": "20251114", "team": "PIT", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 22.766666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020830", "date": "20250201", "team": "PIT", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 22.433333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020515", "date": "20241219", "team": "PIT", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 23.0 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 127, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 14, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477424", "goalieName": "Juuse Saros", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8471724", "goals": 0, "sog": 22, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 8, "recordedAttempts": 32, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020296", "date": "20251116", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2 }, { "gameId": "2024020830", "date": "20250201", "season": 2024, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 3 }, { "gameId": "2024020515", "date": "20241219", "season": 2024, "goals": 0, "sog": 4, "attempts": 5 }, { "gameId": "2023021289", "date": "20240415", "season": 2023, "goals": 0, "sog": 4, "attempts": 5 }, { "gameId": "2023020331", "date": "20231128", "season": 2023, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 3 }, { "gameId": "2022021192", "date": "20230330", "season": 2022, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2 }, { "gameId": "2022020963", "date": "20230228", "season": 2022, "goals": 0, "sog": 4, "attempts": 6 }, { "gameId": "2021020958", "date": "20220315", "season": 2021, "goals": 0, "sog": 4, "attempts": 6 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477424", "goalieName": "Juuse Saros", "opponent": "PIT", "games": 5, "availableGames": 13, "shotsAgainst": 131.0, "goalsAgainst": 15.0, "savePct": 0.8854961832061069, "gaa": 3.034219250435467, "gsax": -2.5649999999999995, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020296", "date": "20251116", "goalieTeam": "NSH", "opponent": "PIT", "shotsAgainst": 21.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3562.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.064 }, { "gameId": "2025020281", "date": "20251114", "goalieTeam": "NSH", "opponent": "PIT", "shotsAgainst": 17.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3637.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.622 }, { "gameId": "2024020830", "date": "20250201", "goalieTeam": "NSH", "opponent": "PIT", "shotsAgainst": 35.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3527.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.258 }, { "gameId": "2024020515", "date": "20241219", "goalieTeam": "NSH", "opponent": "PIT", "shotsAgainst": 20.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3657.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.863 }, { "gameId": "2023021289", "date": "20240415", "goalieTeam": "NSH", "opponent": "PIT", "shotsAgainst": 38.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3414.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.628 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 2.196369983659904, "adjustedSOG": 2.196369983659904, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 2.196369983659904, "adjustedSOG": 2.196369983659904, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.04570213146983963, "goalHistoryGoals": 12.0, "goalHistoryShots": 289.0, "goalExpected": 0.10037878974963446, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.09943920479598362, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.0955052601974797, "goalProbability": 0.09465501117126036, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.08502490262193296 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05778129141767619, "modelSOG": 2.196369983659904, "historyGames": 158, "seasonGames": { "2024": 74, "2025": 74, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 12.0, "historyShots": 289.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.04152249134948097, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.04570213146983963, "goalieFactor": 0.9906396066739361, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 46.835612507862066, "btb": { "id": "8471724", "name": "Kris Letang", "score": 46.835612507862066, "components": { "Goal model": 36.27906976744186, "SOG model": 80.46511627906976, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 26.511627906976745, "Goalie": 81.91176470588235, "Team H2H": 41.53301007086908, "Goalie H2H": 34.84251968503937 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": 22, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 253 } }, { "id": "8484800", "name": "Berkly Catton", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "position": "C", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 1.7, "priorSOG": 1.1818181818181819, "currentTOI": 14.918333333333333, "currentFiveTOI": 12.116666666666667, "ppShare": 0.5124767225325885, "rate": 1.321913722853788, "fifty": 1.4194052756901798, "inputs": { "Player": "Berkly Catton", "Player_ID": "8484800", "Team": "SEA", "Opponent": "MIN", "Position": "C", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.5965136327033373, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.7781552609594962, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 10, "Prior_GP": 66, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.94222833562586, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.193152166995482, "Current_PP_SOG60": 7.848837209302325, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 8.772464209564422, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 12.052803030303028, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 12.116666666666667, "Current_PP_Share": 0.5124767225325885, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.1991503895182354, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1376.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2685.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 6, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.085, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 2.1279648130648163, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 2.605944134078212, "Other_State_SOG": 0.033636363636363645, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9620662188708584, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.1818181818181819, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/seattle-kraken/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:47.199032+00:00", "priorGP": 66, "currentTotalSOG": 17.0, "currentPPTOI": 2.2933333333333334, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.70 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.988, "currentIXG": 0.1988, "priorTOI": 12.93560606060606, "priorPPTOI": 0.829040404040404, "deploymentChange": 1.9827272727272724, "ppTOIChange": 1.4642929292929294, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021240", "date": "20260407", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 13.766666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020693", "date": "20260108", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 14.066666666666666 } ], "h2hGames": 2, "h2hAvailableGames": 2, "h2hSOG": 2.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "MIN", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 261.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 26.1, "mostAllowedRank": 21, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.40367597004765, "pkSogAllowed60": 45.30289727831431, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 40.4, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 77.0, "C": 114.0, "R": 29.0, "L": 41.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 11.4, "L": 4.1, "R": 2.9, "D": 7.7 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 24.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 28.333333333333332, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 26.1, "oppPosSogAllowed": 11.4, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8482661", "team": "MIN", "name": "Jesper Wallstedt", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 9, "savePct": 0.9152542372881356, "gaa": 2.1979363819525, "gsax": 6.934999999999999, "goalsAllowed": 20.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 26.935, "shotsAgainst": 236.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9495343259526882, "factor": 0.9495343259526882, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T18:37:27.914Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.11206453093555042, "goalHistoryGoals": 9.0, "goalHistoryShots": 95.0, "goalExpected": 0.20811139929025949, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.19760891724814728, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.18788343753601738, "goalProbability": 0.17930925161825925, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.8574185917758131, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.8570675088083552, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.94222833562586, "Current_PP_SOG60": 7.848837209302325, "Current_5v5_Min": 12.116666666666667, "Current_PP_Share": 0.5124767225325885, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.085, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 2.605944134078212, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.2, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.957587153238364, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9748801923935355, "Position_Factor": 1.03255444646098, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1376.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2685.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.193152166995482, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 8.772464209564422, "Prior_5v5_Min": 11.90378787878788, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.1991503895182354, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.1039473684210526, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.437908496732026, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.1039473684210526, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9748801923935355, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.94222833562586, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 7.848837209302325, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021240", "date": "20260407", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 13.766666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020693", "date": "20260108", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 14.066666666666666 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. 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Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482661", "goalieName": "Jesper Wallstedt", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8484800", "goals": 0, "sog": 4, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 2, "recordedAttempts": 5, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021240", "date": "20260407", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 3 }, { "gameId": "2025020693", "date": "20260108", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482661", "goalieName": "Jesper Wallstedt", "opponent": "SEA", "games": 2, "availableGames": 2, "shotsAgainst": 55.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "savePct": 0.9272727272727272, "gaa": 1.9647973802701597, "gsax": 2.874, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021240", "date": "20260407", "goalieTeam": "MIN", "opponent": "SEA", "shotsAgainst": 27.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.053 }, { "gameId": "2025020693", "date": "20260108", "goalieTeam": "MIN", "opponent": "SEA", "shotsAgainst": 28.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3729.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.821 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.8570675088083552, "adjustedSOG": 1.8570675088083552, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.8570675088083552, "adjustedSOG": 1.8570675088083552, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.11206453093555042, "goalHistoryGoals": 9.0, "goalHistoryShots": 95.0, "goalExpected": 0.20811139929025949, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.20811139929025949, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.18788343753601738, "goalProbability": 0.18788343753601738, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12852583532432335, "modelSOG": 1.8570675088083552, "historyGames": 76, "seasonGames": { "2025": 66, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 9.0, "historyShots": 95.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.09473684210526316, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.11206453093555042, "goalieFactor": 0.9495343259526882, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 53.32340070033646, "btb": { "id": "8484800", "name": "Berkly Catton", "score": 53.32340070033646, "components": { "Goal model": 69.30232558139535, "SOG model": 70.23255813953489, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 63.25581395348837, "Goalie": 23.676470588235293, "Team H2H": 49.369016536118366, "Goalie H2H": 48.52726742490522 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 2, "goalieH2HShots": 4, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 166 } }, { "id": "8485400", "name": "Roger McQueen", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "PHI", "position": "C", "currentGP": 4, "currentSOG": 2.0, "priorSOG": null, "currentTOI": 13.4, "currentFiveTOI": 11.8875, "ppShare": 0.2361963190184049, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/anaheim-ducks/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:47.200879+00:00", "priorGP": null, "currentTotalSOG": 8.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.2833333333333334, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.00 SOG/game in 4 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 4 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.118, "currentIXG": 0.2795, "priorTOI": null, "priorPPTOI": null, "deploymentChange": null, "ppTOIChange": null, "h2hLog": [], "h2hGames": 0, "h2hAvailableGames": 0, "h2hSOG": null, "opponentDefense": { "team": "PHI", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 383.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 31.916666666666668, "mostAllowedRank": 2, "fiveSogAllowed60": 31.042564889030356, "pkSogAllowed60": 46.879209699146834, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.75, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 113.0, "C": 130.0, "R": 73.0, "L": 67.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.833333333333334, "L": 5.583333333333333, "R": 6.083333333333333, "D": 9.416666666666666 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 27.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.833333333333332, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 31.916666666666668, "oppPosSogAllowed": 10.833333333333334, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8479361", "team": "PHI", "name": "Joseph Woll", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 6, "savePct": 0.9166666666666666, "gaa": 2.640143007746253, "gsax": 4.5710000000000015, "goalsAllowed": 16.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 20.571, "shotsAgainst": 192.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9655996195755495, "factor": 0.9655996195755495, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T14:50:13.988Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.11898740775712778, "goalHistoryGoals": 0.0, "goalHistoryShots": 8.0, "goalExpected": 0.2468369537844872, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.23834566867148832, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.21873193405124708, "goalProbability": 0.2120697187988282, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.666221525241889, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": null, "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 4, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 2.0744796313936065, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 7.570977917981073, "Current_PP_SOG60": 11.688311688311689, "Current_5v5_Min": 11.8875, "Current_PP_Share": 0.2361963190184049, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.388425925925926, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.2727263690070438, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.25, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.1165260841882552, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9915761915723407, "Position_Factor": 0.9972034521823692, "Input_GP": 4, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 308.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1304.0, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.080647192143037, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.437908496732026, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.080647192143037, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9915761915723407, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 7.570977917981073, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 11.688311688311689, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 1, "playerPriorWeight": 0, "currentSeasonOnly": true }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 1, "playerPriorWeight": 0, "currentSeasonOnly": true }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479361", "goalieName": "Joseph Woll", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8485400", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479361", "goalieName": "Joseph Woll", "opponent": "ANA", "games": 3, "availableGames": 3, "shotsAgainst": 91.0, "goalsAgainst": 7.0, "savePct": 0.9230769230769231, "gaa": 2.6359832635983262, "gsax": 2.575, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021029", "date": "20260312", "goalieTeam": "TOR", "opponent": "ANA", "shotsAgainst": 40.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3567.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.449 }, { "gameId": "2024021176", "date": "20250330", "goalieTeam": "TOR", "opponent": "ANA", "shotsAgainst": 31.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3593.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.338 }, { "gameId": "2024020459", "date": "20241212", "goalieTeam": "TOR", "opponent": "ANA", "shotsAgainst": 20.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 2400.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.788 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 2.0744796313936065, "adjustedSOG": 2.0744796313936065, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 2.1168159504016395, "adjustedSOG": 2.0744796313936065, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.11898740775712778, "goalHistoryGoals": 0.0, "goalHistoryShots": 8.0, "goalExpected": 0.25187444263723185, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.24320986599131464, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.22265766700476392, "goalProbability": 0.2158930608772261, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.676460612753782 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.128506400377698, "modelSOG": 2.0744796313936065, "historyGames": 4, "seasonGames": { "2026": 4 }, "historyGoals": 0.0, "historyShots": 8.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.0, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.11898740775712778, "goalieFactor": 0.9655996195755495, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": 57.211012311901506, "btb": { "id": "8485400", "name": "Roger McQueen", "score": 57.211012311901506, "components": { "Goal model": 76.97674418604652, "SOG model": 78.13953488372093, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 75.11627906976744, "Goalie": 28.970588235294116, "Team H2H": 50.0, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Team H2H unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 0, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 120 } }, { "id": "8477021", "name": "Alex Kerfoot", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "PIT", "position": "R", "currentGP": 8, "currentSOG": 0.875, "priorSOG": 0.8235294117647058, "currentTOI": 16.639583333333334, "currentFiveTOI": 12.270833333333334, "ppShare": 0.2771677394926164, "rate": 0.9478112967196062, "fifty": 0.973702049282809, "inputs": { "Player": "Alexander Kerfoot", "Player_ID": "8477021", "Team": "NSH", "Opponent": "PIT", "Position": "C", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 0.8020360229900949, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 0.7991483925965399, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 8, "Prior_GP": 34, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.66723259762309, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.0098389566993085, "Current_PP_SOG60": 4.918032786885246, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 5.09915014164306, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 11.758259803921568, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 12.270833333333334, "Current_PP_Share": 0.2771677394926164, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.07267079872101806, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 732.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2641.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 5, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.906041666666667, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 1.0588153249671903, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 1.3597964786065884, "Other_State_SOG": 0.07941176470588235, "Environment_Proxy": 1.0227478110844896, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 0.8235294117647058, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/nashville-predators/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:47.223943+00:00", "priorGP": 34, "currentTotalSOG": 7.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.525, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.88 SOG/game in 8 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 8 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.817, "currentIXG": 0.102125, "priorTOI": 12.786274509803922, "priorPPTOI": 0.34607843137254907, "deploymentChange": 3.853308823529412, "ppTOIChange": 1.1789215686274508, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021054", "date": "20260314", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "PIT", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 10.166666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020811", "date": "20250129", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "PIT", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 16.866666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020326", "date": "20241123", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "PIT", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 13.666666666666666 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 3, "h2hSOG": 1.3333333333333333, "opponentDefense": { "team": "PIT", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 279.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.9, "mostAllowedRank": 12, "fiveSogAllowed60": 26.122338261223383, "pkSogAllowed60": 50.11600928074246, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 42.4, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 55.0, "L": 47.0, "D": 70.0, "C": 107.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.7, "L": 4.7, "R": 5.5, "D": 7.0 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 25.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 3, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 28.333333333333332, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.9, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.5, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8481668", "team": "PIT", "name": "Arturs Silovs", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 6, "savePct": 0.8662420382165605, "gaa": 3.5131744040150563, "gsax": -1.0760000000000005, "goalsAllowed": 21.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 19.924, "shotsAgainst": 157.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0136052553954562, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Likely starter per Daily Faceoff; no Model Goal adjustment until confirmed.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T15:01:09.604Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.1349506985549136, "goalHistoryGoals": 19.0, "goalHistoryShots": 136.0, "goalExpected": 0.11538064958851568, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.11538064958851568, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.1089730896804048, "goalProbability": 0.1089730896804048, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 8, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 0.8549837149717714, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.66723259762309, "Current_PP_SOG60": 4.918032786885246, "Current_5v5_Min": 12.270833333333334, "Current_PP_Share": 0.2771677394926164, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.906041666666667, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.3597964786065884, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.011083778612368, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0249142728068137, "Position_Factor": 0.9996890729968466, "Input_GP": 8, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 732.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2641.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.0098389566993085, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 5.09915014164306, "Prior_5v5_Min": 10.562254901960785, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.07267079872101806, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.010928961748634, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.382352941176471, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.010928961748634, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0249142728068137, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 3.66723259762309, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 4.918032786885246, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 1.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021054", "date": "20260314", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "PIT", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 10.166666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020811", "date": "20250129", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "PIT", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 16.866666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020326", "date": "20241123", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "PIT", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 13.666666666666666 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 40, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481668", "goalieName": "Arturs Silovs", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8477021", "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 2, "recordedAttempts": 2, "log": [ { "gameId": "2024020915", "date": "20250223", "season": 2024, "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2023021200", "date": "20240403", "season": 2023, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481668", "goalieName": "Arturs Silovs", "opponent": "NSH", "games": 2, "availableGames": 2, "shotsAgainst": 62.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "savePct": 0.9193548387096774, "gaa": 2.397123451857771, "gsax": 1.6559999999999997, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020281", "date": "20251114", "goalieTeam": "PIT", "opponent": "NSH", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3644.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.231 }, { "gameId": "2022021010", "date": "20230306", "goalieTeam": "VAN", "opponent": "NSH", "shotsAgainst": 32.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3865.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.425 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.8549837149717714, "adjustedSOG": 0.8549837149717714, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.8724323622160932, "adjustedSOG": 0.8549837149717714, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.1349506985549136, "goalHistoryGoals": 19.0, "goalHistoryShots": 136.0, "goalExpected": 0.11773535672297518, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.11773535672297518, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.11106872882660739, "goalProbability": 0.11106872882660739, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1284836485895961, "modelSOG": 0.8549837149717714, "historyGames": 123, "seasonGames": { "2024": 81, "2025": 34, "2026": 8 }, "historyGoals": 19.0, "historyShots": 136.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.13970588235294118, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.1349506985549136, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 46.15868041121548, "btb": { "id": "8477021", "name": "Alex Kerfoot", "score": 46.15868041121548, "components": { "Goal model": 41.16279069767442, "SOG model": 19.069767441860463, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 31.3953488372093, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 58.88732677244427, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Likely", "h2hGames": 3, "goalieH2HShots": 1, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 259 } }, { "id": "8482145", "name": "Mavrik Bourque", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "PIT", "position": "C", "currentGP": 4, "currentSOG": 1.75, "priorSOG": 1.7926829268292683, "currentTOI": 15.75, "currentFiveTOI": 13.6375, "ppShare": 0.2444273635664873, "rate": 1.8004307068235974, "fifty": 1.7963789973899837, "inputs": { "Player": "Mavrik Bourque", "Player_ID": "8482145", "Team": "NSH", "Opponent": "PIT", "Position": "C", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.5901910388408238, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.5803863739535826, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 4, "Prior_GP": 82, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.499541704857928, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.829524560021014, "Current_PP_SOG60": 22.641509433962263, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 7.482993197278912, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 13.72466463414634, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 13.6375, "Current_PP_Share": 0.2444273635664873, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.22267853836702403, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 318.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1301.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 4, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.906041666666667, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 1.1671606373417835, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 1.1991708301306687, "Other_State_SOG": 0.054878048780487805, "Environment_Proxy": 1.0227478110844896, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.7926829268292683, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/nashville-predators/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:47.245907+00:00", "priorGP": 82, "currentTotalSOG": 7.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.325, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.75 SOG/game in 4 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 4 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.387, "currentIXG": 0.09675, "priorTOI": 15.48658536585366, "priorPPTOI": 1.075609756097561, "deploymentChange": 0.2634146341463399, "ppTOIChange": 0.2493902439024389, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021156", "date": "20260328", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "PIT", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 2.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 19.033333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2025020456", "date": "20251207", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "PIT", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 12.666666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024021211", "date": "20250405", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "PIT", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 13.716666666666667 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 1.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "PIT", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 279.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.9, "mostAllowedRank": 12, "fiveSogAllowed60": 26.122338261223383, "pkSogAllowed60": 50.11600928074246, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 42.4, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 55.0, "L": 47.0, "D": 70.0, "C": 107.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.7, "L": 4.7, "R": 5.5, "D": 7.0 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 25.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 3, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 28.333333333333332, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.9, "oppPosSogAllowed": 10.7, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8481668", "team": "PIT", "name": "Arturs Silovs", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 6, "savePct": 0.8662420382165605, "gaa": 3.5131744040150563, "gsax": -1.0760000000000005, "goalsAllowed": 21.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 19.924, "shotsAgainst": 157.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0136052553954562, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Likely starter per Daily Faceoff; no Model Goal adjustment until confirmed.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T15:01:09.604Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.13128410999090248, "goalHistoryGoals": 31.0, "goalHistoryShots": 234.0, "goalExpected": 0.2312468028386413, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.2312468028386413, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.20645640694611822, "goalProbability": 0.20645640694611822, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 4, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.761422634122788, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.499541704857928, "Current_PP_SOG60": 22.641509433962263, "Current_5v5_Min": 13.6375, "Current_PP_Share": 0.2444273635664873, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.906041666666667, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.1991708301306687, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.011083778612368, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0249142728068137, "Position_Factor": 1.013339402198195, "Input_GP": 4, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 318.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1301.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.829524560021014, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 7.482993197278912, "Prior_5v5_Min": 13.928048780487805, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.22267853836702403, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0668628808864264, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.437908496732026, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0668628808864264, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0249142728068137, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.499541704857928, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 22.641509433962263, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021156", "date": "20260328", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "PIT", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 2.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 19.033333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2025020456", "date": "20251207", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "PIT", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 12.666666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024021211", "date": "20250405", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "PIT", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 13.716666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020241", "date": "20241111", "team": "DAL", "opponent": "PIT", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 12.25 } ], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 175, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 14, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481668", "goalieName": "Arturs Silovs", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8482145", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481668", "goalieName": "Arturs Silovs", "opponent": "NSH", "games": 2, "availableGames": 2, "shotsAgainst": 62.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "savePct": 0.9193548387096774, "gaa": 2.397123451857771, "gsax": 1.6559999999999997, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020281", "date": "20251114", "goalieTeam": "PIT", "opponent": "NSH", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3644.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.231 }, { "gameId": "2022021010", "date": "20230306", "goalieTeam": "VAN", "opponent": "NSH", "shotsAgainst": 32.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3865.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.425 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.761422634122788, "adjustedSOG": 1.761422634122788, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.7973700348191715, "adjustedSOG": 1.761422634122788, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.13128410999090248, "goalHistoryGoals": 31.0, "goalHistoryShots": 234.0, "goalExpected": 0.23596612534555234, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.23596612534555234, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.21019257206663963, "goalProbability": 0.21019257206663963, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12848892736961431, "modelSOG": 1.761422634122788, "historyGames": 159, "seasonGames": { "2024": 73, "2025": 82, "2026": 4 }, "historyGoals": 31.0, "historyShots": 234.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.13247863247863248, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.13128410999090248, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8476869", "name": "Brady Skjei", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "PIT", "position": "D", "currentGP": 8, "currentSOG": 1.0, "priorSOG": 1.353658536585366, "currentTOI": 19.84375, "currentFiveTOI": 14.933333333333334, "ppShare": 0.14237031427489588, "rate": 1.2400286624497674, "fifty": 1.0951811867411665, "inputs": { "Player": "Brady Skjei", "Player_ID": "8476869", "Team": "NSH", "Opponent": "PIT", "Position": "D", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.0877890960129595, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 0.916519597508394, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 8, "Prior_GP": 82, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.013392857142857, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.622392974753019, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 7.512805919180421, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 15.7860162601626, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 14.933333333333334, "Current_PP_Share": 0.14237031427489588, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.2653170112952262, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 376.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2641.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 5, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.906041666666667, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.8794291794373021, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.6984746939290674, "Other_State_SOG": 0.15670731707317073, "Environment_Proxy": 1.0227478110844896, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.353658536585366, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/nashville-predators/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:47.267167+00:00", "priorGP": 82, "currentTotalSOG": 8.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.7833333333333333, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.00 SOG/game in 8 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 8 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.427, "currentIXG": 0.053375, "priorTOI": 22.609552845528455, "priorPPTOI": 1.071341463414634, "deploymentChange": -2.765802845528455, "ppTOIChange": -0.2880081300813008, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020296", "date": "20251116", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "PIT", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 19.566666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020281", "date": "20251114", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "PIT", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 19.583333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2024020830", "date": "20250201", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "PIT", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 20.366666666666667 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 2.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "PIT", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 279.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.9, "mostAllowedRank": 12, "fiveSogAllowed60": 26.122338261223383, "pkSogAllowed60": 50.11600928074246, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 42.4, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 55.0, "L": 47.0, "D": 70.0, "C": 107.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.7, "L": 4.7, "R": 5.5, "D": 7.0 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 25.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 3, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 28.333333333333332, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.9, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.0, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8481668", "team": "PIT", "name": "Arturs Silovs", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 6, "savePct": 0.8662420382165605, "gaa": 3.5131744040150563, "gsax": -1.0760000000000005, "goalsAllowed": 21.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 19.924, "shotsAgainst": 157.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0136052553954562, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Likely starter per Daily Faceoff; no Model Goal adjustment until confirmed.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T15:01:09.604Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.050063798300055015, "goalHistoryGoals": 13.0, "goalHistoryShots": 275.0, "goalExpected": 0.04819497995737302, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.04819497995737302, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.04705203679111671, "goalProbability": 0.04705203679111671, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 8, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 0.9626712633451957, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.013392857142857, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 14.933333333333334, "Current_PP_Share": 0.14237031427489588, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.906041666666667, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.6984746939290674, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.25, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.011083778612368, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0249142728068137, "Position_Factor": 0.9912682240844909, "Input_GP": 8, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 376.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2641.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.622392974753019, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 7.512805919180421, "Prior_5v5_Min": 17.77560975609756, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.2653170112952262, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9764234875444839, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.34640522875817, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9764234875444839, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0249142728068137, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 3.013392857142857, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020296", "date": "20251116", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "PIT", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 19.566666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020281", "date": "20251114", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "PIT", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 19.583333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2024020830", "date": "20250201", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "PIT", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 20.366666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020515", "date": "20241219", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "PIT", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 8.0, "toi": 22.85 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 130, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 21, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481668", "goalieName": "Arturs Silovs", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8476869", "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 1, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020281", "date": "20251114", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481668", "goalieName": "Arturs Silovs", "opponent": "NSH", "games": 2, "availableGames": 2, "shotsAgainst": 62.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "savePct": 0.9193548387096774, "gaa": 2.397123451857771, "gsax": 1.6559999999999997, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020281", "date": "20251114", "goalieTeam": "PIT", "opponent": "NSH", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3644.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.231 }, { "gameId": "2022021010", "date": "20230306", "goalieTeam": "VAN", "opponent": "NSH", "shotsAgainst": 32.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3865.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.425 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.9626712633451957, "adjustedSOG": 0.9626712633451957, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.982317615658363, "adjustedSOG": 0.9626712633451957, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.050063798300055015, "goalHistoryGoals": 13.0, "goalHistoryShots": 275.0, "goalExpected": 0.04917855097691125, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.04917855097691125, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.04798886799532048, "goalProbability": 0.04798886799532048, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05773924362520629, "modelSOG": 0.9626712633451957, "historyGames": 172, "seasonGames": { "2024": 82, "2025": 82, "2026": 8 }, "historyGoals": 13.0, "historyShots": 275.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.04727272727272727, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.050063798300055015, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 40.27733490627413, "btb": { "id": "8476869", "name": "Brady Skjei", "score": 40.27733490627413, "components": { "Goal model": 14.651162790697674, "SOG model": 25.348837209302324, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 16.046511627906977, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 63.16672883252518, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Likely", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": 1, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 346 } }, { "id": "8483485", "name": "Denton Mateychuk", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "VGK", "position": "D", "currentGP": 8, "currentSOG": 2.25, "priorSOG": 1.1733333333333333, "currentTOI": 23.102083333333333, "currentFiveTOI": 19.666666666666668, "ppShare": 0.2226770364306181, "rate": 1.2871419351775415, "fifty": 1.5788772393880672, "inputs": { "Player": "Denton Mateychuk", "Player_ID": "8483485", "Team": "CBJ", "Opponent": "VGK", "Position": "D", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.3119153168684194, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.4645717821816966, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 8, "Prior_GP": 75, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 6.101694915254237, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.8686278460608503, "Current_PP_SOG60": 6.617647058823529, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 6.15647712697734, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 18.729666666666667, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 19.666666666666668, "Current_PP_Share": 0.2226770364306181, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.1199993743450175, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 544.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2443.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 4, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.052367424242425, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.7775428846483624, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.9023691685582804, "Other_State_SOG": 0.0605, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9217353117054976, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.1733333333333333, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:47.288906+00:00", "priorGP": 75, "currentTotalSOG": 18.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.1333333333333333, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.25 SOG/game in 8 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 8 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.944, "currentIXG": 0.118, "priorTOI": 19.185555555555556, "priorPPTOI": 0.5197777777777778, "deploymentChange": 3.9165277777777767, "ppTOIChange": 0.6135555555555555, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020692", "date": "20260108", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 19.233333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020502", "date": "20251213", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 20.3 }, { "gameId": "2024021045", "date": "20250313", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 21.166666666666668 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 0.6666666666666666, "opponentDefense": { "team": "VGK", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 275.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 25.0, "mostAllowedRank": 27, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.585792714368043, "pkSogAllowed60": 47.03517587939699, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 38.72727272727273, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 59.0, "C": 80.0, "R": 61.0, "L": 75.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.2727272727272725, "L": 6.818181818181818, "R": 5.545454545454546, "D": 5.363636363636363 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 26.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 25.75, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 25.0, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.363636363636363, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8479394", "team": "VGK", "name": "Carter Hart", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.8876404494382022, "gaa": 2.8716148845371516, "gsax": -1.5090000000000003, "goalsAllowed": 20.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 18.491, "shotsAgainst": 178.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.017200797231895, "factor": 1.017200797231895, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T22:33:02.238Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.09498243174338293, "goalHistoryGoals": 18.0, "goalHistoryShots": 150.0, "goalExpected": 0.184393964381983, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.18756568757410277, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.1683918846950911, "goalProbability": 0.17102533694270144, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.2633452247610357, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 8, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.9413481103554608, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 6.101694915254237, "Current_PP_SOG60": 6.617647058823529, "Current_5v5_Min": 19.666666666666668, "Current_PP_Share": 0.2226770364306181, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.052367424242425, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.9023691685582804, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.125, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9589471960166247, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9956874166464801, "Position_Factor": 0.9732049652601255, "Input_GP": 8, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 544.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2443.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.8686278460608503, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 6.15647712697734, "Prior_5v5_Min": 16.543333333333333, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.1199993743450175, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.8586256566683613, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.34640522875817, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.8586256566683613, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9956874166464801, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.491668622389111, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 7.2, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020692", "date": "20260108", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 19.233333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020502", "date": "20251213", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 20.3 }, { "gameId": "2024021045", "date": "20250313", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 21.166666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2024020820", "date": "20250130", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 17.216666666666665 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "NHL.com October 20 game-specific projected lineup", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 118, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 5, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479394", "goalieName": "Carter Hart", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8483485", "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 2, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020502", "date": "20251213", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479394", "goalieName": "Carter Hart", "opponent": "CBJ", "games": 5, "availableGames": 11, "shotsAgainst": 128.0, "goalsAgainst": 11.0, "savePct": 0.9140625, "gaa": 2.6073215696602583, "gsax": 0.11300000000000043, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020692", "date": "20260108", "goalieTeam": "VGK", "opponent": "CBJ", "shotsAgainst": 1.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 504.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 0.415 }, { "gameId": "2025020502", "date": "20251213", "goalieTeam": "VGK", "opponent": "CBJ", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.064 }, { "gameId": "2023020011", "date": "20231012", "goalieTeam": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "shotsAgainst": 33.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.608 }, { "gameId": "2022021287", "date": "20230411", "goalieTeam": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "shotsAgainst": 31.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3884.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.732 }, { "gameId": "2022020510", "date": "20221220", "goalieTeam": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "shotsAgainst": 33.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.294 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.9413481103554608, "adjustedSOG": 1.9413481103554608, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.9413481103554608, "adjustedSOG": 1.9413481103554608, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.09498243174338293, "goalHistoryGoals": 18.0, "goalHistoryShots": 150.0, "goalExpected": 0.184393964381983, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.184393964381983, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.1683918846950911, "goalProbability": 0.1683918846950911, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05745607935845733, "modelSOG": 1.9413481103554608, "historyGames": 128, "seasonGames": { "2024": 45, "2025": 75, "2026": 8 }, "historyGoals": 18.0, "historyShots": 150.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.12, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.09498243174338293, "goalieFactor": 1.017200797231895, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 47.29246759541095, "btb": { "id": "8483485", "name": "Denton Mateychuk", "score": 47.29246759541095, "components": { "Goal model": 62.325581395348834, "SOG model": 74.4186046511628, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 37.7906976744186, "Goalie": 18.38235294117647, "Team H2H": 36.38567698619918, "Goalie H2H": 50.31264474293654 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": 1, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 244 } }, { "id": "8479336", "name": "Carl Grundstrom", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "ANA", "position": "R", "currentGP": 5, "currentSOG": 1.0, "priorSOG": 1.1914893617021276, "currentTOI": 11.33, "currentFiveTOI": 11.283333333333333, "ppShare": 0.0, "rate": 1.1871494017424162, "fifty": 1.1554526906336118, "inputs": { "Player": "Carl Grundstrom", "Player_ID": "8479336", "Team": "PHI", "Opponent": "ANA", "Position": "R", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.3443329438168112, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.3076956606317156, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 5, "Prior_GP": 47, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.317577548005908, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.947329208642415, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 11.182482269503545, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 11.283333333333333, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.005996153686781405, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1597.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 5, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.042592592592593, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.009070848049503203, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.0, "Other_State_SOG": 0.09574468085106382, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9949214190083264, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.1914893617021276, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/philadelphia-flyers/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:47.308912+00:00", "priorGP": 47, "currentTotalSOG": 5.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.0, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.00 SOG/game in 5 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 5 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.43, "currentIXG": 0.086, "priorTOI": 11.851418439716312, "priorPPTOI": 0.02553191489361702, "deploymentChange": -0.521418439716312, "ppTOIChange": -0.02553191489361702, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020670", "date": "20260106", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 11.533333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024021190", "date": "20250401", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 10.65 }, { "gameId": "2024020037", "date": "20241012", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 6.816666666666666 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 3, "h2hSOG": 1.6666666666666667, "opponentDefense": { "team": "ANA", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 239.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 26.555555555555557, "mostAllowedRank": 18, "fiveSogAllowed60": 25.834281008587897, "pkSogAllowed60": 38.93928820655967, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 43.333333333333336, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 54.0, "C": 91.0, "R": 57.0, "L": 37.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.11111111111111, "L": 4.111111111111111, "R": 6.333333333333333, "D": 6.0 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 28.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.2, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 26.555555555555557, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.333333333333333, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8480843", "team": "ANA", "name": "Lukas Dostal", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.8813559322033898, "gaa": 3.1634446397188047, "gsax": 2.846, "goalsAllowed": 21.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 23.846, "shotsAgainst": 177.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9815060369171769, "factor": 0.9815060369171769, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T16:38:16.530Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.09982368690588538, "goalHistoryGoals": 12.0, "goalHistoryShots": 149.0, "goalExpected": 0.10817821462794826, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.10617757072025326, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.102532359684016, "goalProbability": 0.1007350492274461, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.17973104565699033, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 5, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.0836928386540121, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.317577548005908, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 11.283333333333333, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.042592592592593, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.0, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0050173142237073, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9117211340641708, "Position_Factor": 1.0244899837906722, "Input_GP": 5, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1597.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.947329208642415, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 10.947163120567376, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.005996153686781405, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0836928386540121, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.382352941176471, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0836928386540121, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9117211340641708, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.317577548005908, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 1.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020670", "date": "20260106", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 11.533333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024021190", "date": "20250401", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 10.65 }, { "gameId": "2024020037", "date": "20241012", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 6.816666666666666 } ], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff latest reported chart; October 21 final lineup pending", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 86, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480843", "goalieName": "Lukas Dostal", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8479336", "goals": 0, "sog": 5, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 3, "recordedAttempts": 8, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020670", "date": "20260106", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2 }, { "gameId": "2024021190", "date": "20250401", "season": 2024, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 4 }, { "gameId": "2024020037", "date": "20241012", "season": 2024, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480843", "goalieName": "Lukas Dostal", "opponent": "PHI", "games": 5, "availableGames": 5, "shotsAgainst": 155.0, "goalsAgainst": 18.0, "savePct": 0.8838709677419355, "gaa": 3.646595385481148, "gsax": -2.507999999999999, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021082", "date": "20260318", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 28.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3704.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.611 }, { "gameId": "2025020670", "date": "20260106", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 38.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3560.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.171 }, { "gameId": "2024020568", "date": "20241228", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3472.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.781 }, { "gameId": "2023020208", "date": "20231110", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 35.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3450.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.281 }, { "gameId": "2023020117", "date": "20231028", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3584.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.648 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.0836928386540121, "adjustedSOG": 1.0836928386540121, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.0836928386540121, "adjustedSOG": 1.0836928386540121, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.09982368690588538, "goalHistoryGoals": 12.0, "goalHistoryShots": 149.0, "goalExpected": 0.10817821462794826, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.10817821462794826, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.102532359684016, "goalProbability": 0.102532359684016, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12856098039565458, "modelSOG": 1.0836928386540121, "historyGames": 108, "seasonGames": { "2024": 56, "2025": 47, "2026": 5 }, "historyGoals": 12.0, "historyShots": 149.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.08053691275167785, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.09982368690588538, "goalieFactor": 0.9815060369171769, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8485414", "name": "Ben Kindel", "team": "PIT", "opponent": "NSH", "position": "C", "currentGP": 9, "currentSOG": 2.5555555555555554, "priorSOG": 1.9610389610389611, "currentTOI": 17.314814814814817, "currentFiveTOI": 11.762962962962963, "ppShare": 0.6213438735177865, "rate": 2.170933455629137, "fifty": 2.3659039896026894, "inputs": { "Player": "Ben Kindel", "Player_ID": "8485414", "Team": "PIT", "Opponent": "NSH", "Position": "C", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 2.2427330928242073, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 2.4521251526069783, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 9, "Prior_GP": 77, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 7.934508816120907, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.859096493883438, "Current_PP_SOG60": 13.740458015267176, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 9.69637610186092, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 11.880762385762385, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 11.762962962962963, "Current_PP_Share": 0.6213438735177865, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.40134311547854545, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1572.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2530.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 5, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.130208333333334, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 2.8490286011167916, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 3.1876235177865615, "Other_State_SOG": 0.19696969696969696, "Environment_Proxy": 1.0738773444064478, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.9610389610389611, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/pittsburgh-penguins/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:47.331311+00:00", "priorGP": 77, "currentTotalSOG": 23.0, "currentPPTOI": 2.911111111111111, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.56 SOG/game in 9 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 9 games. 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Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477424", "goalieName": "Juuse Saros", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8485414", "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 2, "recordedAttempts": 5, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020296", "date": "20251116", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2 }, { "gameId": "2025020281", "date": "20251114", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 3 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477424", "goalieName": "Juuse Saros", "opponent": "PIT", "games": 5, "availableGames": 13, "shotsAgainst": 131.0, "goalsAgainst": 15.0, "savePct": 0.8854961832061069, "gaa": 3.034219250435467, "gsax": -2.5649999999999995, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020296", "date": "20251116", "goalieTeam": "NSH", "opponent": "PIT", "shotsAgainst": 21.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3562.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.064 }, { "gameId": "2025020281", "date": "20251114", "goalieTeam": "NSH", "opponent": "PIT", "shotsAgainst": 17.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3637.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.622 }, { "gameId": "2024020830", "date": "20250201", "goalieTeam": "NSH", "opponent": "PIT", "shotsAgainst": 35.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3527.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.258 }, { "gameId": "2024020515", "date": "20241219", "goalieTeam": "NSH", "opponent": "PIT", "shotsAgainst": 20.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3657.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.863 }, { "gameId": "2023021289", "date": "20240415", "goalieTeam": "NSH", "opponent": "PIT", "shotsAgainst": 38.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3414.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.628 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 2.609259779711863, "adjustedSOG": 2.609259779711863, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 2.609259779711863, "adjustedSOG": 2.609259779711863, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.11625080477687291, "goalHistoryGoals": 19.0, "goalHistoryShots": 174.0, "goalExpected": 0.30332854926343017, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.3004892747353001, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.2616435299590667, "goalProbability": 0.2595441542994211, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.20993756596455748 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12852720508863177, "modelSOG": 2.609259779711863, "historyGames": 86, "seasonGames": { "2025": 77, "2026": 9 }, "historyGoals": 19.0, "historyShots": 174.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.10919540229885058, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.11625080477687291, "goalieFactor": 0.9906396066739361, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 64.76435463925922, "btb": { "id": "8485414", "name": "Ben Kindel", "score": 64.76435463925922, "components": { "Goal model": 85.34883720930233, "SOG model": 89.76744186046511, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 80.93023255813954, "Goalie": 81.91176470588235, "Team H2H": 46.54046997389034, "Goalie H2H": 49.40944881889764 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 2, "goalieH2HShots": 3, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 36 } }, { "id": "8480220", "name": "Noah Cates", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "ANA", "position": "C", "currentGP": 12, "currentSOG": 0.8333333333333334, "priorSOG": 1.6097560975609757, "currentTOI": 12.97638888888889, "currentFiveTOI": 10.313888888888888, "ppShare": 0.03924418604651163, "rate": 1.3122700602012891, "fifty": 1.0825392911045624, "inputs": { "Player": "Noah Cates", "Player_ID": "8480220", "Team": "PHI", "Opponent": "ANA", "Position": "L", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.4476126640783893, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.2927389375842915, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 12, "Prior_GP": 82, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.8782655534608135, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.616695745537512, "Current_PP_SOG60": 26.666666666666668, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 9.946786737617684, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 10.854356368563684, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 10.313888888888888, "Current_PP_Share": 0.03924418604651163, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.46645282010157707, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 135.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3440.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 7, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.042592592592593, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.844164169933767, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.19789244186046512, "Other_State_SOG": 0.11808943089430894, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9949214190083264, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.6097560975609757, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/philadelphia-flyers/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:47.356942+00:00", "priorGP": 82, "currentTotalSOG": 10.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.1875, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.83 SOG/game in 12 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 12 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.2, "currentIXG": 0.09999999999999999, "priorTOI": 16.24329268292683, "priorPPTOI": 1.986178861788618, "deploymentChange": -3.2669037940379386, "ppTOIChange": -1.798678861788618, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021082", "date": "20260318", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 16.416666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2025020670", "date": "20260106", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 13.7 }, { "gameId": "2024020675", "date": "20250111", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 17.2 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 2.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "ANA", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 239.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 26.555555555555557, "mostAllowedRank": 18, "fiveSogAllowed60": 25.834281008587897, "pkSogAllowed60": 38.93928820655967, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 43.333333333333336, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 54.0, "C": 91.0, "R": 57.0, "L": 37.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.11111111111111, "L": 4.111111111111111, "R": 6.333333333333333, "D": 6.0 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 28.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.2, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 26.555555555555557, "oppPosSogAllowed": 10.11111111111111, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8480843", "team": "ANA", "name": "Lukas Dostal", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.8813559322033898, "gaa": 3.1634446397188047, "gsax": 2.846, "goalsAllowed": 21.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 23.846, "shotsAgainst": 177.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9815060369171769, "factor": 0.9815060369171769, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T16:38:16.530Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.1330917024099857, "goalHistoryGoals": 34.0, "goalHistoryShots": 252.0, "goalExpected": 0.11348902825331283, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.11139016635449059, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.10728600901077365, "goalProbability": 0.10541035795082299, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.18756510599506615, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 12, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 0.8527130256679165, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.8782655534608135, "Current_PP_SOG60": 26.666666666666668, "Current_5v5_Min": 10.313888888888888, "Current_PP_Share": 0.03924418604651163, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.042592592592593, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.19789244186046512, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.08333333333333333, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0050173142237073, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9117211340641708, "Position_Factor": 1.0116943517389423, "Input_GP": 12, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 135.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3440.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.616695745537512, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 9.946786737617684, "Prior_5v5_Min": 12.115447154471545, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.46645282010157707, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0337877241580407, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.437908496732026, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0337877241580407, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9117211340641708, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 4.2284539715166645, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 26.666666666666668, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 3.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. 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Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 42, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. 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Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479292", "goalieName": "Charlie Lindgren", "opponent": "BUF", "games": 5, "availableGames": 8, "shotsAgainst": 128.0, "goalsAgainst": 16.0, "savePct": 0.875, "gaa": 3.275891486094523, "gsax": -2.283, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021028", "date": "20260312", "goalieTeam": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.161 }, { "gameId": "2025020186", "date": "20251101", "goalieTeam": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3892.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.677 }, { "gameId": "2024020637", "date": "20250106", "goalieTeam": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "shotsAgainst": 27.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3900.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.647 }, { "gameId": "2023021255", "date": "20240411", "goalieTeam": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "shotsAgainst": 16.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3458.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.149 }, { "gameId": "2023021189", "date": "20240402", "goalieTeam": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "shotsAgainst": 31.0, "goalsAgainst": 6.0, "seconds": 2733.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.083 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.397286383217831, "adjustedSOG": 0.397286383217831, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.40539426858962346, "adjustedSOG": 0.397286383217831, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.060674892530276414, "goalHistoryGoals": 2.0, "goalHistoryShots": 28.0, "goalExpected": 0.024597253679065414, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.024564798396513505, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.024297206382330152, "goalProbability": 0.024265539158595036, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.003166722373511635 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.057663862438753814, "modelSOG": 0.397286383217831, "historyGames": 53, "seasonGames": { "2025": 43, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 2.0, "historyShots": 28.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.07142857142857142, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.060674892530276414, "goalieFactor": 0.99868053226692, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": 37.38454032742768, "btb": { "id": "8484305", "name": "Zach Metsa", "score": 37.38454032742768, "components": { "Goal model": 4.651162790697675, "SOG model": 4.4186046511627906, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 1.627906976744186, "Goalie": 87.05882352941177, "Team H2H": 49.098029907429385, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 1, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 386 } }, { "id": "8482155", "name": "Alex Laferriere", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "NJD", "position": "R", "currentGP": 7, "currentSOG": 2.0, "priorSOG": 2.548780487804878, "currentTOI": 18.276190476190475, "currentFiveTOI": 14.166666666666668, "ppShare": 0.49324324324324326, "rate": 2.424281928674681, "fifty": 2.2942655308472784, "inputs": { "Player": "Alex Laferriere", "Player_ID": "8482155", "Team": "LAK", "Opponent": "NJD", "Position": "R", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 2.120107132042807, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.935262982871743, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 7, "Prior_GP": 82, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 6.65546218487395, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 8.16545039587501, "Current_PP_SOG60": 11.380400421496311, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 14.639725505146778, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 14.244837398373983, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 14.166666666666668, "Current_PP_Share": 0.49324324324324326, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.3752646739026763, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 949.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1924.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 4, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.575661375661376, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 2.094965062047831, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 2.256914056914057, "Other_State_SOG": 0.16463414634146342, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9357862710703578, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 2.548780487804878, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/los-angeles-kings/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:47.401402+00:00", "priorGP": 82, "currentTotalSOG": 14.0, "currentPPTOI": 2.2595238095238095, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.00 SOG/game in 7 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 7 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.832, "currentIXG": 0.26171428571428573, "priorTOI": 18.31036585365854, "priorPPTOI": 1.599390243902439, "deploymentChange": -0.03417537746806332, "ppTOIChange": 0.6601335656213705, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021050", "date": "20260314", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 19.333333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2025020191", "date": "20251101", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 18.433333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020602", "date": "20250101", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 18.033333333333335 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 2.6666666666666665, "opponentDefense": { "team": "NJD", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 234.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 26.0, "mostAllowedRank": 22, "fiveSogAllowed60": 24.374647357532442, "pkSogAllowed60": 52.512155591572125, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 37.111111111111114, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "L": 41.0, "D": 63.0, "C": 78.0, "R": 52.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 8.666666666666666, "L": 4.555555555555555, "R": 5.777777777777778, "D": 7.0 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 25.0, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 25.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 26.0, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.777777777777778, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8474596", "team": "NJD", "name": "Jake Allen", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 6, "savePct": 0.8834355828220859, "gaa": 3.1496062992125986, "gsax": -3.708, "goalsAllowed": 19.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 15.292, "shotsAgainst": 163.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0365218981504722, "factor": 1.0365218981504722, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T17:31:56.013Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.10631776257713837, "goalHistoryGoals": 42.0, "goalHistoryShots": 416.0, "goalExpected": 0.21612432835903136, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.22401759906719912, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.1943648676473308, "goalProbability": 0.20069893270761385, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.6334065060283056, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 7, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 2.0328148666806576, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 6.65546218487395, "Current_PP_SOG60": 11.380400421496311, "Current_5v5_Min": 14.166666666666668, "Current_PP_Share": 0.49324324324324326, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.575661375661376, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 2.256914056914057, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9778442581785296, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0469775686735434, "Position_Factor": 1.0147397181478286, "Input_GP": 7, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 949.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1924.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 8.16545039587501, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 14.639725505146778, "Prior_5v5_Min": 14.427235772357724, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.3752646739026763, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0348001150417026, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.382352941176471, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0348001150417026, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0469775686735434, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 6.65546218487395, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 11.380400421496311, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021050", "date": "20260314", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 19.333333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2025020191", "date": "20251101", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 18.433333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020602", "date": "20250101", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 18.033333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2024020461", "date": "20241212", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 17.7 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "ppAssignmentSourceDate": "2026-10-11T01:38:00.435Z", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 270, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 44, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8474596", "goalieName": "Jake Allen", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8482155", "goals": 0, "sog": 8, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 3, "recordedAttempts": 13, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021050", "date": "20260314", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 7 }, { "gameId": "2024020602", "date": "20250101", "season": 2024, "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 3 }, { "gameId": "2023020309", "date": "20231125", "season": 2023, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 3 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8474596", "goalieName": "Jake Allen", "opponent": "LAK", "games": 5, "availableGames": 17, "shotsAgainst": 151.0, "goalsAgainst": 16.0, "savePct": 0.8940397350993378, "gaa": 3.2597623089983023, "gsax": 1.5839999999999996, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021050", "date": "20260314", "goalieTeam": "NJD", "opponent": "LAK", "shotsAgainst": 31.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.558 }, { "gameId": "2024020602", "date": "20250101", "goalieTeam": "NJD", "opponent": "LAK", "shotsAgainst": 23.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3431.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.828 }, { "gameId": "2023020309", "date": "20231125", "goalieTeam": "MTL", "opponent": "LAK", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.339 }, { "gameId": "2022020982", "date": "20230302", "goalieTeam": "MTL", "opponent": "LAK", "shotsAgainst": 33.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3509.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.849 }, { "gameId": "2022020439", "date": "20221210", "goalieTeam": "MTL", "opponent": "LAK", "shotsAgainst": 34.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3530.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.01 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 2.0328148666806576, "adjustedSOG": 2.0328148666806576, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 2.074300884368018, "adjustedSOG": 2.0328148666806576, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.10631776257713837, "goalHistoryGoals": 42.0, "goalHistoryShots": 416.0, "goalExpected": 0.2205350289377871, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.2205350289377871, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.19791045797513562, "goalProbability": 0.19791045797513562, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.128599654898034, "modelSOG": 2.0328148666806576, "historyGames": 166, "seasonGames": { "2024": 77, "2025": 82, "2026": 7 }, "historyGoals": 42.0, "historyShots": 416.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.10096153846153846, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.10631776257713837, "goalieFactor": 1.0365218981504722, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 57.1030916746586, "btb": { "id": "8482155", "name": "Alex Laferriere", "score": 57.1030916746586, "components": { "Goal model": 70.93023255813954, "SOG model": 76.51162790697674, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 75.5813953488372, "Goalie": 55.44117647058823, "Team H2H": 43.58448340171578, "Goalie H2H": 44.51534075481944 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": 8, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 122 } }, { "id": "8482408", "name": "Jeff Malott", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "PHI", "position": "L", "currentGP": 9, "currentSOG": 0.8888888888888888, "priorSOG": 0.9310344827586207, "currentTOI": 9.99074074074074, "currentFiveTOI": 9.753703703703703, "ppShare": 0.0028237192416296895, "rate": 1.1099599043388644, "fifty": 1.089150663618816, "inputs": { "Player": "Jeff Malott", "Player_ID": "8482408", "Team": "ANA", "Opponent": "PHI", "Position": "L", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.0192708236463734, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.0445154018440976, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 9, "Prior_GP": 58, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.468008353901652, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.291630943744641, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 9.441902937420178, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 9.753703703703703, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0028237192416296895, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.0012810249778492857, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 7.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2479.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 5, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.388425925925926, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.012721593839113853, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.015215401969133313, "Other_State_SOG": 0.015517241379310345, "Environment_Proxy": 1.15, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 0.9310344827586207, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/anaheim-ducks/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:47.423013+00:00", "priorGP": 58, "currentTotalSOG": 8.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.012962962962962963, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.89 SOG/game in 9 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 9 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.504, "currentIXG": 0.1671111111111111, "priorTOI": 8.818965517241379, "priorPPTOI": 0.005459770114942529, "deploymentChange": 1.1717752234993615, "ppTOIChange": 0.007503192848020434, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021093", "date": "20260319", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 8.466666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020859", "date": "20260131", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 11.333333333333334 } ], "h2hGames": 2, "h2hAvailableGames": 2, "h2hSOG": 0.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "PHI", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 383.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 31.916666666666668, "mostAllowedRank": 2, "fiveSogAllowed60": 31.042564889030356, "pkSogAllowed60": 46.879209699146834, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.75, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 113.0, "C": 130.0, "R": 73.0, "L": 67.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.833333333333334, "L": 5.583333333333333, "R": 6.083333333333333, "D": 9.416666666666666 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 27.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.833333333333332, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 31.916666666666668, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.583333333333333, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8479361", "team": "PHI", "name": "Joseph Woll", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 6, "savePct": 0.9166666666666666, "gaa": 2.640143007746253, "gsax": 4.5710000000000015, "goalsAllowed": 16.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 20.571, "shotsAgainst": 192.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9655996195755495, "factor": 0.9655996195755495, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T14:50:13.988Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.09631285143835058, "goalHistoryGoals": 4.0, "goalHistoryShots": 75.0, "goalExpected": 0.08861141579747722, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.08556314938409484, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.08479886280918103, "goalProbability": 0.08200482960590316, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.2794033203277868, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 9, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 0.9200373000502117, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.468008353901652, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 9.753703703703703, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0028237192416296895, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.388425925925926, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.015215401969133313, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.1165260841882552, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9915761915723407, "Position_Factor": 0.9919806918148306, "Input_GP": 9, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 7.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2479.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.291630943744641, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 8.714367816091954, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.0012810249778492857, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0561652679147837, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.062091503267974, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0561652679147837, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9915761915723407, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.468008353901652, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021093", "date": "20260319", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 8.466666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020859", "date": "20260131", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 11.333333333333334 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 98, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479361", "goalieName": "Joseph Woll", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8482408", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479361", "goalieName": "Joseph Woll", "opponent": "ANA", "games": 3, "availableGames": 3, "shotsAgainst": 91.0, "goalsAgainst": 7.0, "savePct": 0.9230769230769231, "gaa": 2.6359832635983262, "gsax": 2.575, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021029", "date": "20260312", "goalieTeam": "TOR", "opponent": "ANA", "shotsAgainst": 40.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3567.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.449 }, { "gameId": "2024021176", "date": "20250330", "goalieTeam": "TOR", "opponent": "ANA", "shotsAgainst": 31.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3593.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.338 }, { "gameId": "2024020459", "date": "20241212", "goalieTeam": "TOR", "opponent": "ANA", "shotsAgainst": 20.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 2400.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.788 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.9200373000502117, "adjustedSOG": 0.9200373000502117, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.9388135714798078, "adjustedSOG": 0.9200373000502117, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.09631285143835058, "goalHistoryGoals": 4.0, "goalHistoryShots": 75.0, "goalExpected": 0.09041981203824205, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.08730933610621922, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.08645241351714504, "goalProbability": 0.0836064218369153, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.28459916802297397 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12854749001711352, "modelSOG": 0.9200373000502117, "historyGames": 79, "seasonGames": { "2024": 12, "2025": 58, "2026": 9 }, "historyGoals": 4.0, "historyShots": 75.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.05333333333333334, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.09631285143835058, "goalieFactor": 0.9655996195755495, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 42.50014644269269, "btb": { "id": "8482408", "name": "Jeff Malott", "score": 42.50014644269269, "components": { "Goal model": 31.627906976744185, "SOG model": 23.488372093023255, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 54.41860465116279, "Goalie": 28.970588235294116, "Team H2H": 44.40818102697998, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 2, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 312 } }, { "id": "8477404", "name": "Jake Guentzel", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "UTA", "position": "L", "currentGP": 9, "currentSOG": 2.2222222222222223, "priorSOG": 2.7160493827160495, "currentTOI": 19.983333333333334, "currentFiveTOI": 13.54814814814815, "ppShare": 0.7779291553133515, "rate": 2.261749544575566, "fifty": 2.167852726912319, "inputs": { "Player": "Jake Guentzel", "Player_ID": "8477404", "Team": "TBL", "Opponent": "UTA", "Position": "C", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 2.51381018811952, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 2.5941926913310054, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 9, "Prior_GP": 81, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.90486604702023, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.888937955398543, "Current_PP_SOG60": 9.457092819614711, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 10.65933484904563, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 13.677222222222223, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 13.54814814814815, "Current_PP_Share": 0.7779291553133515, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.7681950660873252, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2284.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2936.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 5, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.626018518518518, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 3.58520565546888, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 3.5987146785750324, "Other_State_SOG": 0.38888888888888884, "Environment_Proxy": 0.85, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 2.7160493827160495, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:47.446794+00:00", "priorGP": 81.0, "currentTotalSOG": 20.0, "currentPPTOI": 4.22962962962963, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.22 SOG/game in 9 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 9 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 3.651, "currentIXG": 0.4056666666666666, "priorTOI": 20.245884773662553, "priorPPTOI": 3.89156378600823, "deploymentChange": -0.2625514403292186, "ppTOIChange": 0.33806584362140013, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020825", "date": "20260126", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 18.55 }, { "gameId": "2025020194", "date": "20251102", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 14.933333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024021145", "date": "20250327", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 2.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 17.533333333333335 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 1.6666666666666667, "opponentDefense": { "team": "UTA", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 225.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 22.5, "mostAllowedRank": 30, "fiveSogAllowed60": 21.06050814598143, "pkSogAllowed60": 53.47313237221494, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 35.6, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 58.0, "C": 87.0, "R": 52.0, "L": 28.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 8.7, "L": 2.8, "R": 5.2, "D": 5.8 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 22.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 20.25, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 22.5, "oppPosSogAllowed": 2.8, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8478872", "team": "UTA", "name": "Karel Vejmelka", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 8, "savePct": 0.8793103448275862, "gaa": 2.8927833473635878, "gsax": -2.0919999999999987, "goalsAllowed": 21.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 18.908, "shotsAgainst": 174.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0222659253207917, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Likely starter per Daily Faceoff; no Model Goal adjustment until confirmed.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T17:11:59.953Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.17204310916650248, "goalHistoryGoals": 83.0, "goalHistoryShots": 457.0, "goalExpected": 0.3329430960629345, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.3329430960629345, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.2831890176377886, "goalProbability": 0.2831890176377886, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 9, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.935230638855252, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.90486604702023, "Current_PP_SOG60": 9.457092819614711, "Current_5v5_Min": 13.54814814814815, "Current_PP_Share": 0.7779291553133515, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.626018518518518, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 3.5987146785750324, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.2222222222222222, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9114659361351877, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.05376529706562, "Position_Factor": 0.958692704970949, "Input_GP": 9, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2284.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2936.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.888937955398543, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 10.65933484904563, "Prior_5v5_Min": 13.978395061728396, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.7681950660873252, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.85, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.062091503267974, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.7772890929200146, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.0358858645483264, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0915805757818438, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 6.667695632041982, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 10.074626865671641, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 4.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020825", "date": "20260126", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 18.55 }, { "gameId": "2025020194", "date": "20251102", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 14.933333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024021145", "date": "20250327", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 2.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 17.533333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2024021111", "date": "20250322", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "away", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 20.666666666666668 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "NHL.com projected lineup", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 20, "priorAttempts": 196, "fitPct": -7.42369690266618, "index": 92.57630309733382, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 14.306122448979592, "opponentDeltaPct": -5.689070301576365, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 26 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 23.77551020408163, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.7770704564453013, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 43 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 39.163265306122454, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.327351233427365, "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 89 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 3.877551020408163, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.9245535697431251, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 19 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 9.061224489795919, "opponentDeltaPct": -16.04971857561877, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 15 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 9.816326530612244, "opponentDeltaPct": -20.1847447341527, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 4 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 8, "priorAttempts": 73, "fitPct": 1.1961954849442122, "index": 101.19619548494421, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 0.547945205479452, "opponentDeltaPct": 17.305597288121845, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 11.883561643835616, "opponentDeltaPct": -21.464657371094802, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 8 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 75.13698630136986, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.5905016923962023, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 55 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 9.618907395292567, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 12.431506849315069, "opponentDeltaPct": 13.720872325288695, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 9 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 37.671799141718395, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -7.42369690266618, "zonePPFit": 1.1961954849442122, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478872", "goalieName": "Karel Vejmelka", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8477404", "goals": 6, "sog": 23, "shootingPct": 0.2608695652173913, "gamesWithAttempts": 7, "recordedAttempts": 32, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020825", "date": "20260126", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 3 }, { "gameId": "2025020194", "date": "20251102", "season": 2025, "goals": 1, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2024021145", "date": "20250327", "season": 2024, "goals": 1, "sog": 2, "attempts": 4 }, { "gameId": "2024021111", "date": "20250322", "season": 2024, "goals": 1, "sog": 4, "attempts": 6 }, { "gameId": "2022020641", "date": "20230108", "season": 2022, "goals": 2, "sog": 6, "attempts": 8 }, { "gameId": "2022020011", "date": "20221013", "season": 2022, "goals": 1, "sog": 6, "attempts": 7 }, { "gameId": "2021020747", "date": "20220125", "season": 2021, "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 3 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478872", "goalieName": "Karel Vejmelka", "opponent": "TBL", "games": 5, "availableGames": 6, "shotsAgainst": 128.0, "goalsAgainst": 18.0, "savePct": 0.859375, "gaa": 4.0538004379105415, "gsax": -5.162, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020825", "date": "20260126", "goalieTeam": "UTA", "opponent": "TBL", "shotsAgainst": 29.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.389 }, { "gameId": "2025020194", "date": "20251102", "goalieTeam": "UTA", "opponent": "TBL", "shotsAgainst": 25.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3527.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.366 }, { "gameId": "2024021145", "date": "20250327", "goalieTeam": "UTA", "opponent": "TBL", "shotsAgainst": 12.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 1754.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.834 }, { "gameId": "2024021111", "date": "20250322", "goalieTeam": "UTA", "opponent": "TBL", "shotsAgainst": 27.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.77 }, { "gameId": "2022020582", "date": "20221231", "goalieTeam": "ARI", "opponent": "TBL", "shotsAgainst": 35.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3504.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.479 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.935230638855252, "adjustedSOG": 1.935230638855252, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.9747251416890328, "adjustedSOG": 1.935230638855252, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.17204310916650248, "goalHistoryGoals": 83.0, "goalHistoryShots": 457.0, "goalExpected": 0.33973785312544336, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.33973785312544336, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.28804306441296024, "goalProbability": 0.28804306441296024, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12828011805741885, "modelSOG": 1.935230638855252, "historyGames": 170, "seasonGames": { "2024": 80, "2025": 81, "2026": 9 }, "historyGoals": 83.0, "historyShots": 457.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.18161925601750548, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.17204310916650248, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 64.80429464882073, "btb": { "id": "8477404", "name": "Jake Guentzel", "score": 64.80429464882073, "components": { "Goal model": 88.6046511627907, "SOG model": 73.95348837209302, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 93.02325581395348, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 60.55576277508392, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Likely", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": 23, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 35 } }, { "id": "8484230", "name": "Otto Stenberg", "team": "STL", "opponent": "CAR", "position": "C", "currentGP": 1, "currentSOG": 1.0, "priorSOG": 0.96875, "currentTOI": 9.133333333333333, "currentFiveTOI": 8.0, "ppShare": 0.0, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/st-louis-blues/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:47.450005+00:00", "priorGP": 32, "currentTotalSOG": 1.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.0, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.00 SOG/game in 1 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 1 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.194, "currentIXG": 0.194, "priorTOI": 13.61875, "priorPPTOI": 0.24739583333333334, "deploymentChange": -4.4854166666666675, "ppTOIChange": -0.24739583333333334, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021033", "date": "20260312", "team": "STL", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 12.85 }, { "gameId": "2025020730", "date": "20260113", "team": "STL", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 14.183333333333334 } ], "h2hGames": 2, "h2hAvailableGames": 2, "h2hSOG": 1.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "CAR", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 246.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 22.363636363636363, "mostAllowedRank": 31, "fiveSogAllowed60": 21.75191064079953, "pkSogAllowed60": 32.87187039764359, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 33.09090909090909, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 77.0, "R": 66.0, "D": 59.0, "L": 44.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.0, "L": 4.0, "R": 6.0, "D": 5.363636363636363 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 23.0, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 7, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 22.428571428571427, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 22.363636363636363, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.0, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8481611", "team": "CAR", "name": "Pyotr Kochetkov", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 6, "savePct": 0.8991596638655462, "gaa": 1.9842910293509715, "gsax": 2.2720000000000002, "goalsAllowed": 12.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 14.272, "shotsAgainst": 119.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9828959307519136, "factor": 0.9828959307519136, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T22:32:34.088Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.12008117437573489, "goalHistoryGoals": 3.0, "goalHistoryShots": 32.0, "goalExpected": 0.1038335468047139, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.10205757062989167, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.0986246782626998, "goalProbability": 0.09702243481476189, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.16022434479379122, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 1, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 0.8646946313151299, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 7.5, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 8.0, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.016414141414142, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.0, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9235603264096603, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.85, "Position_Factor": 0.9873314343303702, "Input_GP": 1, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 405.0, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.8646946313151299, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.437908496732026, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.8646946313151299, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.85, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 7.5, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. 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Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 3.725, "currentIXG": 0.3725, "priorTOI": 13.969444444444443, "priorPPTOI": 1.2730555555555556, "deploymentChange": 5.187222222222223, "ppTOIChange": 2.2402777777777776, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021028", "date": "20260312", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 16.816666666666666 } ], "h2hGames": 1, "h2hAvailableGames": 1, "h2hSOG": 0.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "WSH", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 263.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 29.22222222222222, "mostAllowedRank": 7, "fiveSogAllowed60": 28.540383918869974, "pkSogAllowed60": 52.820345614607106, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.111111111111114, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "L": 48.0, "D": 68.0, "C": 72.0, "R": 75.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 8.0, "L": 5.333333333333333, "R": 8.333333333333334, "D": 7.555555555555555 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 29.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27.5, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 29.22222222222222, "oppPosSogAllowed": 8.0, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8479292", "team": "WSH", "name": "Charlie Lindgren", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 2, "savePct": 0.896551724137931, "gaa": 3.061224489795918, "gsax": 0.2989999999999995, "goalsAllowed": 6.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 6.2989999999999995, "shotsAgainst": 58.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.99868053226692, "factor": 0.99868053226692, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T14:45:41.433Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.13822514045894538, "goalHistoryGoals": 13.0, "goalHistoryShots": 87.0, "goalExpected": 0.3057143362857177, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.3053109560834487, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.26340299155821945, "goalProbability": 0.2631058029719972, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.02971885862222412, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 2.211712972550885, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 6.224066390041494, "Current_PP_SOG60": 11.954459203036054, "Current_5v5_Min": 14.459999999999999, "Current_PP_Share": 0.6620603015075377, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.493148148148148, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 3.636795319188535, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.1, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.053751909733539, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0558974457897532, "Position_Factor": 0.975132863651709, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2108.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3184.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.3349843231699, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 5.49858171503382, "Prior_5v5_Min": 12.226111111111113, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.2656135589386936, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9278320454876804, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.437908496732026, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9278320454876804, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0558974457897532, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.961783439490445, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 12, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 0.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021028", "date": "20260312", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 16.816666666666666 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff latest reported chart; October 21 final lineup pending", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 79, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. 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Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.13822514045894538, "goalHistoryGoals": 13.0, "goalHistoryShots": 87.0, "goalExpected": 0.3119534043731813, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.3115417919218864, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.26798436383892577, "goalProbability": 0.26768299506922527, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.03013687697004941 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12848101265822784, "modelSOG": 2.211712972550885, "historyGames": 78, "seasonGames": { "2024": 8, "2025": 60, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 13.0, "historyShots": 87.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.14942528735632185, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.13822514045894538, "goalieFactor": 0.99868053226692, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 66.37291242045093, "btb": { "id": "8483500", "name": "Noah Ostlund", "score": 66.37291242045093, "components": { "Goal model": 85.5813953488372, "SOG model": 80.93023255813954, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 91.3953488372093, "Goalie": 87.05882352941177, "Team H2H": 49.098029907429385, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 1, "goalieH2HShots": 0, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 21 } }, { "id": "8478440", "name": "Dylan Strome", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "position": "C", "currentGP": 9, "currentSOG": 2.111111111111111, "priorSOG": 1.7875, "currentTOI": 16.987037037037037, "currentFiveTOI": 12.575925925925926, "ppShare": 0.6070719110051649, "rate": 1.6610455217790587, "fifty": 1.7845895877528735, "inputs": { "Player": "Dylan Strome", "Player_ID": "8478440", "Team": "WSH", "Opponent": "BUF", "Position": "C", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.5263039909973908, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.603426746130734, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 9, "Prior_GP": 80, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.831247238992785, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.951264725228727, "Current_PP_SOG60": 16.49214659685864, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 9.481101857783472, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 12.983898148148146, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 12.575925925925926, "Current_PP_Share": 0.6070719110051649, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.6688632753351229, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1528.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2517.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 5, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.500555555555556, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 2.8155895021021875, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 2.732160861696023, "Other_State_SOG": 0.15736111111111112, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9496227273390297, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.7875, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:47.493586+00:00", "priorGP": 80, "currentTotalSOG": 19.0, "currentPPTOI": 2.8296296296296295, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.11 SOG/game in 9 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 9 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 3.298, "currentIXG": 0.36644444444444446, "priorTOI": 18.037708333333335, "priorPPTOI": 2.926875, "deploymentChange": -1.0506712962962972, "ppTOIChange": -0.0972453703703704, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021213", "date": "20260404", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 16.633333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025021028", "date": "20260312", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 15.416666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020186", "date": "20251101", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "away", "sog": 6.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 22.216666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2024021171", "date": "20250330", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 8.0, "toi": 17.35 }, { "gameId": "2024020637", "date": "20250106", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 18.166666666666668 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 6, "h2hSOG": 3.4, "opponentDefense": { "team": "BUF", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 257.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 25.7, "mostAllowedRank": 24, "fiveSogAllowed60": 21.645723550871505, "pkSogAllowed60": 62.21198156682028, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 40.1, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 61.0, "L": 55.0, "D": 65.0, "C": 76.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.6, "L": 5.5, "R": 6.1, "D": 6.5 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 30.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.25, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 25.7, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.6, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8480045", "team": "BUF", "name": "Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 8, "savePct": 0.8629441624365483, "gaa": 3.5349310833909153, "gsax": -3.6580000000000013, "goalsAllowed": 27.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 23.342, "shotsAgainst": 197.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.035448902624297, "factor": 1.035448902624297, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T15:43:35.500Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.15010137568275742, "goalHistoryGoals": 49.0, "goalHistoryShots": 312.0, "goalExpected": 0.3111075176910887, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.32213593779140687, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.26736489959987547, "goalProbability": 0.27540031684595145, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.8035417246075982, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 9, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 2.0726493429921744, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.831247238992785, "Current_PP_SOG60": 16.49214659685864, "Current_5v5_Min": 12.575925925925926, "Current_PP_Share": 0.6070719110051649, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.500555555555556, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 2.732160861696023, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.1111111111111111, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.922717716387106, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.1429256259066152, "Position_Factor": 0.981671103829613, "Input_GP": 9, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1528.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2517.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.951264725228727, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 9.481101857783472, "Prior_5v5_Min": 13.935833333333331, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.6688632753351229, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9026315789473685, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.437908496732026, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9026315789473685, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.1429256259066152, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.98404255319149, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 10.81893313298272, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 3.6666666666666665 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 3.6666666666666665 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021213", "date": "20260404", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 16.633333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025021028", "date": "20260312", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 15.416666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020186", "date": "20251101", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "away", "sog": 6.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 22.216666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2024021171", "date": "20250330", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 8.0, "toi": 17.35 }, { "gameId": "2024020637", "date": "20250106", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 18.166666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2024020480", "date": "20241214", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "home", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 15.316666666666666 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "NHL.com October 20 game-specific projected lineup", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. 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Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.584, "currentIXG": 0.058399999999999994, "priorTOI": 22.82863247863248, "priorPPTOI": 0.05256410256410256, "deploymentChange": 0.4580341880341905, "ppTOIChange": 0.04743589743589745, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021213", "date": "20260404", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 19.9 }, { "gameId": "2025021028", "date": "20260312", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 20.5 }, { "gameId": "2025020186", "date": "20251101", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 20.366666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024021171", "date": "20250330", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 18.333333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2024020637", "date": "20250106", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 15.683333333333334 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 6, "h2hSOG": 1.6, "opponentDefense": { "team": "WSH", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 263.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 29.22222222222222, "mostAllowedRank": 7, "fiveSogAllowed60": 28.540383918869974, "pkSogAllowed60": 52.820345614607106, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.111111111111114, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "L": 48.0, "D": 68.0, "C": 72.0, "R": 75.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 8.0, "L": 5.333333333333333, "R": 8.333333333333334, "D": 7.555555555555555 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 29.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27.5, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 29.22222222222222, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.555555555555555, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8479292", "team": "WSH", "name": "Charlie Lindgren", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 2, "savePct": 0.896551724137931, "gaa": 3.061224489795918, "gsax": 0.2989999999999995, "goalsAllowed": 6.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 6.2989999999999995, "shotsAgainst": 58.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.99868053226692, "factor": 0.99868053226692, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T14:45:41.433Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.09031564493474126, "goalHistoryGoals": 19.0, "goalHistoryShots": 174.0, "goalExpected": 0.1162557394210869, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.11610234372413542, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.10975247720338757, "goalProbability": 0.10961590658976442, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.013657061362315481, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.287215958044578, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.0300479757596164, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 19.80166666666667, "Current_PP_Share": 0.018844221105527637, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.493148148148148, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.10351409826912338, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.3, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.053751909733539, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0558974457897532, "Position_Factor": 0.9950902926097296, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 60.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3184.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.980818053596615, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 18.936965811965813, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.010967108460853423, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0134856714740588, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.34640522875817, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0134856714740588, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0558974457897532, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 3.357582540570789, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 0.3333333333333333 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 2.6666666666666665 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021213", "date": "20260404", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 19.9 }, { "gameId": "2025021028", "date": "20260312", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 20.5 }, { "gameId": "2025020186", "date": "20251101", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 20.366666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024021171", "date": "20250330", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 18.333333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2024020637", "date": "20250106", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 15.683333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020480", "date": "20241214", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 18.6 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff latest reported chart; October 21 final lineup pending", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 148, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479292", "goalieName": "Charlie Lindgren", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8480807", "goals": 0, "sog": 6, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 2, "recordedAttempts": 6, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021028", "date": "20260312", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2025020186", "date": "20251101", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 5, "attempts": 5 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479292", "goalieName": "Charlie Lindgren", "opponent": "BUF", "games": 5, "availableGames": 8, "shotsAgainst": 128.0, "goalsAgainst": 16.0, "savePct": 0.875, "gaa": 3.275891486094523, "gsax": -2.283, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021028", "date": "20260312", "goalieTeam": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.161 }, { "gameId": "2025020186", "date": "20251101", "goalieTeam": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3892.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.677 }, { "gameId": "2024020637", "date": "20250106", "goalieTeam": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "shotsAgainst": 27.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3900.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.647 }, { "gameId": "2023021255", "date": "20240411", "goalieTeam": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "shotsAgainst": 16.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3458.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.149 }, { "gameId": "2023021189", "date": "20240402", "goalieTeam": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "shotsAgainst": 31.0, "goalsAgainst": 6.0, "seconds": 2733.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.083 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.287215958044578, "adjustedSOG": 1.287215958044578, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.313485671474059, "adjustedSOG": 1.287215958044578, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.09031564493474126, "goalHistoryGoals": 19.0, "goalHistoryShots": 174.0, "goalExpected": 0.11862830553172132, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.11847177931034227, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.11186214465368038, "goalProbability": 0.11172311691065953, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.013902774302085308 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05746486712119104, "modelSOG": 1.287215958044578, "historyGames": 150, "seasonGames": { "2024": 62, "2025": 78, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 19.0, "historyShots": 174.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.10919540229885058, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.09031564493474126, "goalieFactor": 0.99868053226692, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 45.943507870829684, "btb": { "id": "8480807", "name": "Mattias Samuelsson", "score": 45.943507870829684, "components": { "Goal model": 41.627906976744185, "SOG model": 46.74418604651163, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 12.093023255813954, "Goalie": 87.05882352941177, "Team H2H": 38.00587467362924, "Goalie H2H": 46.64651293588302 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 6, "goalieH2HShots": 6, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 261 } }, { "id": "8477380", "name": "Jonny Brodzinski", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "position": "C", "currentGP": 2, "currentSOG": 2.0, "priorSOG": 1.1454545454545455, "currentTOI": 9.383333333333333, "currentFiveTOI": 9.383333333333333, "ppShare": 0.0, "rate": 1.0740184844477716, "fifty": 1.3665511039644385, "inputs": { "Player": "Jonny Brodzinski", "Player_ID": "8477380", "Team": "WSH", "Opponent": "BUF", "Position": "C", "Current_GP": 2, "Prior_GP": 55, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 12.788632326820604, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.930978669287242, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 8.687258687258687, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 9.71360606060606, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 9.383333333333333, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.17135935500203223, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 540.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 1, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Measured game-matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Historical skater-team PP minute approximation, existing hybrid method", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.500555555555556, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.23136368914524383, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.0, "Other_State_SOG": 0.016363636363636365, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9496227273390297, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.1454545454545455, "Status": "Historical input object restored from saved prior summaries", "Availability_Note": "Conditional on dressing", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.0571439327212846, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.3542515254777432 }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:47.537103+00:00", "priorGP": 55, "currentTotalSOG": 4.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.0, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.00 SOG/game in 2 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 2 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.086, "currentIXG": 0.043, "priorTOI": 11.171818181818182, "priorPPTOI": 0.6278787878787878, "deploymentChange": -1.788484848484849, "ppTOIChange": -0.6278787878787878, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021244", "date": "20260408", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 12.05 }, { "gameId": "2025020685", "date": "20260108", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 14.2 }, { "gameId": "2024020895", "date": "20250222", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 12.35 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 3, "h2hSOG": 1.6666666666666667, "opponentDefense": { "team": "BUF", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 257.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 25.7, "mostAllowedRank": 24, "fiveSogAllowed60": 21.645723550871505, "pkSogAllowed60": 62.21198156682028, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 40.1, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 61.0, "L": 55.0, "D": 65.0, "C": 76.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.6, "L": 5.5, "R": 6.1, "D": 6.5 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 30.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.25, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 25.7, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.6, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8480045", "team": "BUF", "name": "Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 8, "savePct": 0.8629441624365483, "gaa": 3.5349310833909153, "gsax": -3.6580000000000013, "goalsAllowed": 27.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 23.342, "shotsAgainst": 197.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.035448902624297, "factor": 1.035448902624297, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T15:43:35.500Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.12854047939687438, "goalHistoryGoals": 18.0, "goalHistoryShots": 140.0, "goalExpected": 0.2320493917533048, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.24027528804559506, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.20709304072542462, "goalProbability": 0.21358865837595575, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.6495617650531138, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": null, "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 2, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.805263157894737, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 12.788632326820604, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 9.383333333333333, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.500555555555556, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.0, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.922717716387106, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.1429256259066152, "Position_Factor": 0.981671103829613, "Input_GP": 2, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 540.0, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9026315789473685, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.437908496732026, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9026315789473685, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.1429256259066152, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 14.007782101167315, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 2.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021244", "date": "20260408", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 12.05 }, { "gameId": "2025020685", "date": "20260108", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 14.2 }, { "gameId": "2024020895", "date": "20250222", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 12.35 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "NHL.com October 20 game-specific projected lineup", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. 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Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480045", "goalieName": "Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8477380", "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 3, "recordedAttempts": 6, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021244", "date": "20260408", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2024020895", "date": "20250222", "season": 2024, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 3 }, { "gameId": "2023020522", "date": "20231223", "season": 2023, "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 2 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480045", "goalieName": "Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen", "opponent": "WSH", "games": 5, "availableGames": 10, "shotsAgainst": 138.0, "goalsAgainst": 13.0, "savePct": 0.9057971014492754, "gaa": 2.5547246028713357, "gsax": 1.2270000000000003, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021028", "date": "20260312", "goalieTeam": "BUF", "opponent": "WSH", "shotsAgainst": 22.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3513.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.736 }, { "gameId": "2025020186", "date": "20251101", "goalieTeam": "BUF", "opponent": "WSH", "shotsAgainst": 34.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3868.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.692 }, { "gameId": "2024020637", "date": "20250106", "goalieTeam": "BUF", "opponent": "WSH", "shotsAgainst": 28.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3900.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.29 }, { "gameId": "2024020480", "date": "20241214", "goalieTeam": "BUF", "opponent": "WSH", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3438.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.234 }, { "gameId": "2023021255", "date": "20240411", "goalieTeam": "BUF", "opponent": "WSH", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.275 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.805263157894737, "adjustedSOG": 1.805263157894737, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.805263157894737, "adjustedSOG": 1.805263157894737, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.12854047939687438, "goalHistoryGoals": 18.0, "goalHistoryShots": 140.0, "goalExpected": 0.2320493917533048, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.24027528804559506, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.20709304072542462, "goalProbability": 0.21358865837595575, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.6495617650531138 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1284971505524985, "modelSOG": 1.805263157894737, "historyGames": 108, "seasonGames": { "2024": 51, "2025": 55, "2026": 2 }, "historyGoals": 18.0, "historyShots": 140.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.12857142857142856, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.12854047939687438, "goalieFactor": 1.035448902624297, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 50.364340448330374, "btb": { "id": "8477380", "name": "Jonny Brodzinski", "score": 50.364340448330374, "components": { "Goal model": 74.88372093023256, "SOG model": 68.6046511627907, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 46.04651162790697, "Goalie": 7.794117647058823, "Team H2H": 44.215705965053225, "Goalie H2H": 49.40944881889764 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 3, "goalieH2HShots": 3, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 200 } }, { "id": "8477501", "name": "Valeri Nichushkin", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "VGK", "position": "L", "currentGP": 8, "currentSOG": 1.25, "priorSOG": 2.2222222222222223, "currentTOI": 15.925, "currentFiveTOI": 12.45625, "ppShare": 0.25747032337290215, "rate": 1.8635710835081167, "fifty": 1.6626663827647032, "inputs": { "Player": "Valeri Nichushkin", "Player_ID": "8477501", "Team": "CBJ", "Opponent": "VGK", "Position": "R", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.922229832566946, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.8559076135197432, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 8, "Prior_GP": 72, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 6.021073758153538, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 7.843406357756772, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 8.056872037914692, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 12.76736111111111, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 12.45625, "Current_PP_Share": 0.25747032337290215, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.3209860703812316, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 629.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2443.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 4, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.052367424242425, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 1.1205810943764047, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 1.0433643511455117, "Other_State_SOG": 0.1875, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9217353117054976, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 2.2222222222222223, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:47.557877+00:00", "priorGP": 72, "currentTotalSOG": 10.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.3104166666666666, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.25 SOG/game in 8 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 8 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.2, "currentIXG": 0.15, "priorTOI": 17.725, "priorPPTOI": 1.7583333333333333, "deploymentChange": -1.8000000000000007, "ppTOIChange": -0.44791666666666674, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021274", "date": "20260411", "team": "COL", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 16.866666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020600", "date": "20251227", "team": "COL", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "away", "sog": 7.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 10.0, "toi": 20.05 }, { "gameId": "2025020178", "date": "20251031", "team": "COL", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 20.116666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024021244", "date": "20250408", "team": "COL", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 8.0, "toi": 25.883333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020358", "date": "20241127", "team": "COL", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 10.0, "toi": 22.783333333333335 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 5, "h2hSOG": 3.6, "opponentDefense": { "team": "VGK", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 275.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 25.0, "mostAllowedRank": 27, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.585792714368043, "pkSogAllowed60": 47.03517587939699, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 38.72727272727273, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 59.0, "C": 80.0, "R": 61.0, "L": 75.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.2727272727272725, "L": 6.818181818181818, "R": 5.545454545454546, "D": 5.363636363636363 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 26.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 25.75, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 25.0, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.818181818181818, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8479394", "team": "VGK", "name": "Carter Hart", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.8876404494382022, "gaa": 2.8716148845371516, "gsax": -1.5090000000000003, "goalsAllowed": 20.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 18.491, "shotsAgainst": 178.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.017200797231895, "factor": 1.017200797231895, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T22:33:02.238Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.1336287234637054, "goalHistoryGoals": 39.0, "goalHistoryShots": 288.0, "goalExpected": 0.19209128997907657, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.19539541330801982, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.17476847031618253, "goalProbability": 0.1774906374007622, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.2722167084579674, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 8, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.4375000000000002, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 6.021073758153538, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 12.45625, "Current_PP_Share": 0.25747032337290215, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.052367424242425, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.0433643511455117, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9589471960166247, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9956874166464801, "Position_Factor": 1.05, "Input_GP": 8, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 629.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2443.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 7.843406357756772, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 8.056872037914692, "Prior_5v5_Min": 13.493287037037037, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.3209860703812316, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.15, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.062091503267974, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9956874166464801, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 6.649427410417436, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 4.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 3.3333333333333335 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021274", "date": "20260411", "team": "COL", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 16.866666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020600", "date": "20251227", "team": "COL", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "away", "sog": 7.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 10.0, "toi": 20.05 }, { "gameId": "2025020178", "date": "20251031", "team": "COL", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 20.116666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024021244", "date": "20250408", "team": "COL", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 8.0, "toi": 25.883333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020358", "date": "20241127", "team": "COL", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 10.0, "toi": 22.783333333333335 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "NHL.com October 20 game-specific projected lineup", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 187, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 30, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479394", "goalieName": "Carter Hart", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8477501", "goals": 0, "sog": 18, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 4, "recordedAttempts": 27, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021274", "date": "20260411", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 5 }, { "gameId": "2025020600", "date": "20251227", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 7, "attempts": 10 }, { "gameId": "2023020417", "date": "20231209", "season": 2023, "goals": 0, "sog": 5, "attempts": 8 }, { "gameId": "2021021031", "date": "20220325", "season": 2021, "goals": 0, "sog": 4, "attempts": 4 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479394", "goalieName": "Carter Hart", "opponent": "CBJ", "games": 5, "availableGames": 11, "shotsAgainst": 128.0, "goalsAgainst": 11.0, "savePct": 0.9140625, "gaa": 2.6073215696602583, "gsax": 0.11300000000000043, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020692", "date": "20260108", "goalieTeam": "VGK", "opponent": "CBJ", "shotsAgainst": 1.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 504.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 0.415 }, { "gameId": "2025020502", "date": "20251213", "goalieTeam": "VGK", "opponent": "CBJ", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.064 }, { "gameId": "2023020011", "date": "20231012", "goalieTeam": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "shotsAgainst": 33.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.608 }, { "gameId": "2022021287", "date": "20230411", "goalieTeam": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "shotsAgainst": 31.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3884.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.732 }, { "gameId": "2022020510", "date": "20221220", "goalieTeam": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "shotsAgainst": 33.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.294 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.4375000000000002, "adjustedSOG": 1.4375000000000002, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.4375000000000002, "adjustedSOG": 1.4375000000000002, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.1336287234637054, "goalHistoryGoals": 39.0, "goalHistoryShots": 288.0, "goalExpected": 0.19209128997907657, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.19209128997907657, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.17476847031618253, "goalProbability": 0.17476847031618253, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.128479447039177, "modelSOG": 1.4375000000000002, "historyGames": 123, "seasonGames": { "2024": 43, "2025": 72, "2026": 8 }, "historyGoals": 39.0, "historyShots": 288.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.13541666666666666, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.1336287234637054, "goalieFactor": 1.017200797231895, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 50.81525619413638, "btb": { "id": "8477501", "name": "Valeri Nichushkin", "score": 50.81525619413638, "components": { "Goal model": 65.11627906976744, "SOG model": 54.18604651162791, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 48.604651162790695, "Goalie": 18.38235294117647, "Team H2H": 64.57789382071367, "Goalie H2H": 36.9731357109773 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 5, "goalieH2HShots": 18, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 195 } }, { "id": "8482730", "name": "Brandt Clarke", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "NJD", "position": "D", "currentGP": 7, "currentSOG": 2.2857142857142856, "priorSOG": 1.9390243902439024, "currentTOI": 19.552380952380954, "currentFiveTOI": 14.869047619047619, "ppShare": 0.7047817047817048, "rate": 1.873347051357489, "fifty": 1.923674267722432, "inputs": { "Player": "Brandt Clarke", "Player_ID": "8482730", "Team": "LAK", "Opponent": "NJD", "Position": "D", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.6719983946874768, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.7386367289313729, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 7, "Prior_GP": 82, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 7.493995196156925, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.009176292777718, "Current_PP_SOG60": 2.6548672566371683, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 10.526315789473685, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 15.49168699186992, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 14.869047619047619, "Current_PP_Share": 0.7047817047817048, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.521908322682792, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1356.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1924.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 4, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.575661375661376, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 2.973812423510457, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 3.224842424842425, "Other_State_SOG": 0.14930313588850175, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9357862710703578, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.9390243902439024, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/los-angeles-kings/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:47.577990+00:00", "priorGP": 82, "currentTotalSOG": 16.0, "currentPPTOI": 3.2285714285714286, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.29 SOG/game in 7 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 7 games. 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MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021050", "date": "20260314", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 20.316666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020191", "date": "20251101", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "home", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 21.45 }, { "gameId": "2024020602", "date": "20250101", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 14.55 }, { "gameId": "2024020461", "date": "20241212", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 18.533333333333335 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "ppAssignmentSourceDate": "2026-10-11T01:38:00.435Z", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 172, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 39, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8474596", "goalieName": "Jake Allen", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8482730", "goals": 0, "sog": 4, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 2, "recordedAttempts": 6, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021050", "date": "20260314", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2 }, { "gameId": "2024020602", "date": "20250101", "season": 2024, "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 4 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8474596", "goalieName": "Jake Allen", "opponent": "LAK", "games": 5, "availableGames": 17, "shotsAgainst": 151.0, "goalsAgainst": 16.0, "savePct": 0.8940397350993378, "gaa": 3.2597623089983023, "gsax": 1.5839999999999996, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021050", "date": "20260314", "goalieTeam": "NJD", "opponent": "LAK", "shotsAgainst": 31.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.558 }, { "gameId": "2024020602", "date": "20250101", "goalieTeam": "NJD", "opponent": "LAK", "shotsAgainst": 23.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3431.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.828 }, { "gameId": "2023020309", "date": "20231125", "goalieTeam": "MTL", "opponent": "LAK", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.339 }, { "gameId": "2022020982", "date": "20230302", "goalieTeam": "MTL", "opponent": "LAK", "shotsAgainst": 33.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3509.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.849 }, { "gameId": "2022020439", "date": "20221210", "goalieTeam": "MTL", "opponent": "LAK", "shotsAgainst": 34.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3530.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.01 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 2.2057566922225287, "adjustedSOG": 2.2057566922225287, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 2.2507721349209477, "adjustedSOG": 2.2057566922225287, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.04870877291889396, "goalHistoryGoals": 14.0, "goalHistoryShots": 306.0, "goalExpected": 0.1096323488120386, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.1096323488120386, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.1038364496682096, "goalProbability": 0.1038364496682096, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05775761805070947, "modelSOG": 2.2057566922225287, "historyGames": 167, "seasonGames": { "2024": 78, "2025": 82, "2026": 7 }, "historyGoals": 14.0, "historyShots": 306.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.0457516339869281, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.04870877291889396, "goalieFactor": 1.0365218981504722, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 45.893856956341786, "btb": { "id": "8482730", "name": "Brandt Clarke", "score": 45.893856956341786, "components": { "Goal model": 38.83720930232558, "SOG model": 80.69767441860465, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 22.093023255813954, "Goalie": 55.44117647058823, "Team H2H": 43.32338679597165, "Goalie H2H": 48.396033829104695 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": 4, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 263 } }, { "id": "8481528", "name": "Dylan Cozens", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "NYR", "position": "C", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 2.2, "priorSOG": 2.5, "currentTOI": 18.058333333333334, "currentFiveTOI": 12.684999999999999, "ppShare": 0.5921761536659639, "rate": 2.410942761598128, "fifty": 2.2361688812870657, "inputs": { "Player": "Dylan Cozens", "Player_ID": "8481528", "Team": "OTT", "Opponent": "NYR", "Position": "C", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 2.551689101194104, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 2.31726940684394, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 10, "Prior_GP": 82, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 6.6219944816712655, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 7.690508490433643, "Current_PP_SOG60": 8.544303797468354, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 12.841854934601665, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 12.78992682926829, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 12.684999999999999, "Current_PP_Share": 0.5921761536659639, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.6227425684737089, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2528.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 4269.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 5, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 6.001439393939394, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 3.608942042550032, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 3.553909296762424, "Other_State_SOG": 0.16268292682926833, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9482920490252438, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 2.5, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/ottawa-senators/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:47.598630+00:00", "priorGP": 82, "currentTotalSOG": 22.0, "currentPPTOI": 4.213333333333333, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.20 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 2.144, "currentIXG": 0.2144, "priorTOI": 17.039634146341463, "priorPPTOI": 3.076829268292683, "deploymentChange": 1.0186991869918707, "ppTOIChange": 1.1365040650406497, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021119", "date": "20260323", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "NYR", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 17.166666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2025020737", "date": "20260114", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "NYR", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 13.5 }, { "gameId": "2025020427", "date": "20251204", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "NYR", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 23.333333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2024021003", "date": "20250308", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "NYR", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 17.45 }, { "gameId": "2024020895", "date": "20250222", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "NYR", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 15.566666666666666 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 7, "h2hSOG": 2.8, "opponentDefense": { "team": "NYR", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 283.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 25.727272727272727, "mostAllowedRank": 23, "fiveSogAllowed60": 24.897512126427788, "pkSogAllowed60": 40.17358958462492, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 39.81818181818182, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 106.0, "D": 82.0, "R": 57.0, "L": 38.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.636363636363637, "L": 3.4545454545454546, "R": 5.181818181818182, "D": 7.454545454545454 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 27.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.4, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 25.727272727272727, "oppPosSogAllowed": 9.636363636363637, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8482193", "team": "NYR", "name": "Dylan Garand", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.9285714285714286, "gaa": 1.846928781306842, "gsax": 4.030999999999999, "goalsAllowed": 11.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 15.030999999999999, "shotsAgainst": 154.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9674872583533348, "factor": 0.9674872583533348, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T15:37:42.216Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.11040400473718913, "goalHistoryGoals": 44.0, "goalHistoryShots": 415.0, "goalExpected": 0.2297418046169297, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.22227226867798083, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.2052612261027919, "goalProbability": 0.19930267014943548, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.5958555953356426, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 2.0809191221262116, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 6.6219944816712655, "Current_PP_SOG60": 8.544303797468354, "Current_5v5_Min": 12.684999999999999, "Current_PP_Share": 0.5921761536659639, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 6.001439393939394, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 3.553909296762424, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.2, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9864268368728425, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9197863814450764, "Position_Factor": 1.0105908601706983, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2528.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 4269.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 7.690508490433643, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 12.841854934601665, "Prior_5v5_Min": 13.034756097560974, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.6227425684737089, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.011014378050389, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.437908496732026, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.011014378050389, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9197863814450764, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 6.6219944816712655, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 8.544303797468354, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 4, "sogPerGame": 2.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 3.6666666666666665 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021119", "date": "20260323", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "NYR", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 17.166666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2025020737", "date": "20260114", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "NYR", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 13.5 }, { "gameId": "2025020427", "date": "20251204", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "NYR", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 23.333333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2024021003", "date": "20250308", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "NYR", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 17.45 }, { "gameId": "2024020895", "date": "20250222", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "NYR", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 15.566666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020457", "date": "20241211", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "NYR", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 17.3 }, { "gameId": "2024020213", "date": "20241107", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "NYR", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 16.4 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "lineupReviewedAt": "2026-10-22T12:25:32.333917+00:00", "lineupReviewNote": "Reported forward, defense and PP chart reviewed October22; matches existing assignments. Final dressing unconfirmed. Dated statistical inputs now include October21.", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 203, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 70, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482193", "goalieName": "Dylan Garand", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8481528", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482193", "goalieName": "Dylan Garand", "opponent": "OTT", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "No appearance found in the supplied historical files; this does not establish that the goalie has never faced the team." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 2.0809191221262116, "adjustedSOG": 2.0809191221262116, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 2.0809191221262116, "adjustedSOG": 2.0809191221262116, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.11040400473718913, "goalHistoryGoals": 44.0, "goalHistoryShots": 415.0, "goalExpected": 0.2297418046169297, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.22227226867798083, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.2052612261027919, "goalProbability": 0.19930267014943548, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.5958555953356426 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12858062439652398, "modelSOG": 2.0809191221262116, "historyGames": 174, "seasonGames": { "2024": 82, "2025": 82, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 44.0, "historyShots": 415.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.10602409638554217, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.11040400473718913, "goalieFactor": 0.9674872583533348, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 59.060397788358166, "btb": { "id": "8481528", "name": "Dylan Cozens", "score": 59.060397788358166, "components": { "Goal model": 74.18604651162791, "SOG model": 78.37209302325581, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 67.44186046511628, "Goalie": 39.55882352941177, "Team H2H": 64.03010290277992, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 7, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 96 } }, { "id": "8476891", "name": "Matt Grzelcyk", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "WSH", "position": "D", "currentGP": 1, "currentSOG": 0.0, "priorSOG": 1, "currentTOI": 14.45, "currentFiveTOI": 13.35, "ppShare": 0.0, "rate": 0.8798873925136931, "fifty": 0.5442705772941755, "inputs": { "Player": "Matt Grzelcyk", "Player_ID": "8476891", "Team": "BUF", "Opponent": "WSH", "Position": "D", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 0.8489767130606383, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 0.5261872679950045, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 1, "Prior_GP": 68, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 0.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.491247636134413, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 5.241700640652301, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 13.894191176470589, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 13.35, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.19448934956257127, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 275.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 1, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.493148148148148, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.3205076431152528, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.0, "Other_State_SOG": 0.03970588235294118, "Environment_Proxy": 1.0834850655013406, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/buffalo-sabres/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:47.618023+00:00", "priorGP": 68, "currentTotalSOG": 0.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.0, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.00 SOG/game in 1 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 1 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.0, "currentIXG": 0.0, "priorTOI": 16.971568627450978, "priorPPTOI": 0.8416666666666667, "deploymentChange": -2.5215686274509785, "ppTOIChange": -0.8416666666666667, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020694", "date": "20260109", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 15.25 }, { "gameId": "2025020652", "date": "20260103", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 17.433333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024021311", "date": "20250417", "team": "PIT", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 22.416666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2024020893", "date": "20250222", "team": "PIT", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 19.05 }, { "gameId": "2024020729", "date": "20250118", "team": "PIT", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 18.4 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 6, "h2hSOG": 1.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "WSH", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 263.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 29.22222222222222, "mostAllowedRank": 7, "fiveSogAllowed60": 28.540383918869974, "pkSogAllowed60": 52.820345614607106, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.111111111111114, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "L": 48.0, "D": 68.0, "C": 72.0, "R": 75.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 8.0, "L": 5.333333333333333, "R": 8.333333333333334, "D": 7.555555555555555 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 29.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27.5, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 29.22222222222222, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.555555555555555, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8479292", "team": "WSH", "name": "Charlie Lindgren", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 2, "savePct": 0.896551724137931, "gaa": 3.061224489795918, "gsax": 0.2989999999999995, "goalsAllowed": 6.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 6.2989999999999995, "shotsAgainst": 58.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.99868053226692, "factor": 0.99868053226692, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T14:45:41.433Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.025903123835291194, "goalHistoryGoals": 1.0, "goalHistoryShots": 162.0, "goalExpected": 0.0, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.0, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.0, "goalProbability": 0.0, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 1, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 0.0, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 13.35, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.493148148148148, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.0, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.053751909733539, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0558974457897532, "Position_Factor": 0.9950902926097296, "Input_GP": 1, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 275.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.491247636134413, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 5.241700640652301, "Prior_5v5_Min": 15.163970588235296, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.19448934956257127, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0134856714740588, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.34640522875817, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0134856714740588, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0558974457897532, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 0, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 4, "sogPerGame": 0.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020694", "date": "20260109", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 15.25 }, { "gameId": "2025020652", "date": "20260103", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 17.433333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024021311", "date": "20250417", "team": "PIT", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 22.416666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2024020893", "date": "20250222", "team": "PIT", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 19.05 }, { "gameId": "2024020729", "date": "20250118", "team": "PIT", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 18.4 }, { "gameId": "2024020221", "date": "20241108", "team": "PIT", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 18.266666666666666 } ], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff latest reported chart; October 21 final lineup pending", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 104, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 9, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479292", "goalieName": "Charlie Lindgren", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8476891", "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 3, "recordedAttempts": 3, "log": [ { "gameId": "2023021176", "date": "20240330", "season": 2023, "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2023020808", "date": "20240210", "season": 2023, "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2022021290", "date": "20230411", "season": 2022, "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 1 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479292", "goalieName": "Charlie Lindgren", "opponent": "BUF", "games": 5, "availableGames": 8, "shotsAgainst": 128.0, "goalsAgainst": 16.0, "savePct": 0.875, "gaa": 3.275891486094523, "gsax": -2.283, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021028", "date": "20260312", "goalieTeam": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.161 }, { "gameId": "2025020186", "date": "20251101", "goalieTeam": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3892.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.677 }, { "gameId": "2024020637", "date": "20250106", "goalieTeam": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "shotsAgainst": 27.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3900.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.647 }, { "gameId": "2023021255", "date": "20240411", "goalieTeam": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "shotsAgainst": 16.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3458.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.149 }, { "gameId": "2023021189", "date": "20240402", "goalieTeam": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "shotsAgainst": 31.0, "goalsAgainst": 6.0, "seconds": 2733.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.083 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.0, "adjustedSOG": 0.0, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.0, "adjustedSOG": 0.0, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.025903123835291194, "goalHistoryGoals": 1.0, "goalHistoryShots": 162.0, "goalExpected": 0.0, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.0, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.0, "goalProbability": 0.0, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05786618444846293, "modelSOG": 0.0, "historyGames": 151, "seasonGames": { "2024": 82, "2025": 68, "2026": 1 }, "historyGoals": 1.0, "historyShots": 162.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.006172839506172839, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.025903123835291194, "goalieFactor": 0.99868053226692, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8479407", "name": "Jesper Bratt", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "LAK", "position": "R", "currentGP": 9, "currentSOG": 2.6666666666666665, "priorSOG": 2.1707317073170733, "currentTOI": 17.587037037037035, "currentFiveTOI": 13.383333333333333, "ppShare": 0.6057374034571533, "rate": 2.1611943498978583, "fifty": 2.4092755572640074, "inputs": { "Player": "Jesper Bratt", "Player_ID": "8479407", "Team": "NJD", "Opponent": "LAK", "Position": "L", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 2.1949190282707267, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 2.729126730417765, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 9, "Prior_GP": 82, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 8.468244084682441, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.9198990130823965, "Current_PP_SOG60": 15.300546448087431, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 5.27395253442719, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 13.619065040650405, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 13.383333333333333, "Current_PP_Share": 0.6057374034571533, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.7154311347748162, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1647.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2719.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 4, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.972354497354498, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 3.1755719377707052, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 3.0119411022960123, "Other_State_SOG": 0.24146341463414636, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9908219918860978, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 2.1707317073170733, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-jersey-devils/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:47.637316+00:00", "priorGP": 82, "currentTotalSOG": 24.0, "currentPPTOI": 3.05, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.67 SOG/game in 9 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 9 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 2.876, "currentIXG": 0.31955555555555554, "priorTOI": 18.76341463414634, "priorPPTOI": 2.7747967479674798, "deploymentChange": -1.1763775971093047, "ppTOIChange": 0.27520325203252005, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021050", "date": "20260314", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 13.783333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020191", "date": "20251101", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "away", "sog": 6.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 8.0, "toi": 18.383333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020602", "date": "20250101", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "away", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 8.0, "toi": 21.9 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 3.6666666666666665, "opponentDefense": { "team": "LAK", "games": 7, "sogAllowedTotal": 193.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.571428571428573, "mostAllowedRank": 14, "fiveSogAllowed60": 25.227874154660395, "pkSogAllowed60": 57.61396702230844, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 39.142857142857146, "positionUnassignedSOG": 1.0, "positionTotals": { "C": 86.0, "D": 47.0, "R": 28.0, "L": 31.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 12.285714285714286, "L": 4.428571428571429, "R": 4.0, "D": 6.714285714285714 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 27.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 29.5, "positionSourceDifference": 1.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.571428571428573, "oppPosSogAllowed": 4.0, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8476341", "team": "LAK", "name": "Anton Forsberg", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 3, "savePct": 0.8833333333333333, "gaa": 2.6313041662315966, "gsax": -2.1049999999999995, "goalsAllowed": 7.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.8950000000000005, "shotsAgainst": 60.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0218332511814823, "factor": 1.0218332511814823, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T19:00:24.293Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.12002775152391394, "goalHistoryGoals": 45.0, "goalHistoryShots": 382.0, "goalExpected": 0.30285901640759705, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.3094714133854008, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.26129676593488493, "goalProbability": 0.2661652510501393, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.48684851152543396, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 9, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 2.5232416050654454, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 8.468244084682441, "Current_PP_SOG60": 15.300546448087431, "Current_5v5_Min": 13.383333333333333, "Current_PP_Share": 0.6057374034571533, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.972354497354498, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 3.0119411022960123, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9946407827573338, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.085978140946376, "Position_Factor": 0.9726288799729524, "Input_GP": 9, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1647.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2719.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.9198990130823965, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 5.27395253442719, "Prior_5v5_Min": 14.16910569105691, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.7154311347748162, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.8942462230793957, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.382352941176471, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.8942462230793957, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.085978140946376, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 8.468244084682441, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 15.300546448087431, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 3.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021050", "date": "20260314", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 13.783333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020191", "date": "20251101", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "away", "sog": 6.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 8.0, "toi": 18.383333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020602", "date": "20250101", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "away", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 8.0, "toi": 21.9 }, { "gameId": "2024020461", "date": "20241212", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 19.6 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 197, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 29, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476341", "goalieName": "Anton Forsberg", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8479407", "goals": 0, "sog": 12, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 7, "recordedAttempts": 22, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021050", "date": "20260314", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 2 }, { "gameId": "2024020737", "date": "20250119", "season": 2024, "goals": 0, "sog": 4, "attempts": 5 }, { "gameId": "2024020062", "date": "20241017", "season": 2024, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 3 }, { "gameId": "2022020274", "date": "20221119", "season": 2022, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2022020213", "date": "20221110", "season": 2022, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 3 }, { "gameId": "2021021274", "date": "20220426", "season": 2021, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 4 }, { "gameId": "2021020234", "date": "20211206", "season": 2021, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 4 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476341", "goalieName": "Anton Forsberg", "opponent": "NJD", "games": 5, "availableGames": 11, "shotsAgainst": 115.0, "goalsAgainst": 15.0, "savePct": 0.8695652173913043, "gaa": 4.18280402788536, "gsax": -4.362, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021050", "date": "20260314", "goalieTeam": "LAK", "opponent": "NJD", "shotsAgainst": 27.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3466.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.948 }, { "gameId": "2024020737", "date": "20250119", "goalieTeam": "OTT", "opponent": "NJD", "shotsAgainst": 26.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.295 }, { "gameId": "2024020062", "date": "20241017", "goalieTeam": "OTT", "opponent": "NJD", "shotsAgainst": 35.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3470.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.298 }, { "gameId": "2023021224", "date": "20240406", "goalieTeam": "OTT", "opponent": "NJD", "shotsAgainst": 9.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 994.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 0.874 }, { "gameId": "2022020274", "date": "20221119", "goalieTeam": "OTT", "opponent": "NJD", "shotsAgainst": 18.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 1380.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.223 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 2.5232416050654454, "adjustedSOG": 2.5232416050654454, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 2.5232416050654454, "adjustedSOG": 2.5232416050654454, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.12002775152391394, "goalHistoryGoals": 45.0, "goalHistoryShots": 382.0, "goalExpected": 0.30285901640759705, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.30285901640759705, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.26129676593488493, "goalProbability": 0.26129676593488493, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12853376234526523, "modelSOG": 2.5232416050654454, "historyGames": 172, "seasonGames": { "2024": 81, "2025": 82, "2026": 9 }, "historyGoals": 45.0, "historyShots": 382.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.11780104712041885, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.12002775152391394, "goalieFactor": 1.0218332511814823, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 63.06222210553244, "btb": { "id": "8479407", "name": "Jesper Bratt", "score": 63.06222210553244, "components": { "Goal model": 85.11627906976744, "SOG model": 87.20930232558139, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 85.34883720930233, "Goalie": 76.61764705882354, "Team H2H": 42.54009697873928, "Goalie H2H": 41.00838201676403 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": 12, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 53 } }, { "id": "8479365", "name": "Trent Frederic", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "TOR", "position": "L", "currentGP": 9, "currentSOG": 1.0, "priorSOG": 1.0405405405405406, "currentTOI": 9.79074074074074, "currentFiveTOI": 8.538888888888888, "ppShare": 0.2668772206869325, "rate": 0.9994413115700186, "fifty": 1.0339390049664894, "inputs": { "Player": "Trent Frederic", "Player_ID": "8479365", "Team": "EDM", "Opponent": "TOR", "Position": "C", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 0.9438067986730111, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.0359273600275072, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 9, "Prior_GP": 74, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.68445022771633, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.743173248249285, "Current_PP_SOG60": 15.976331360946746, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 9.238438438438438, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 8.538888888888888, "Current_PP_Share": 0.2668772206869325, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.030691992134865106, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 676.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2533.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 5, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.365824915824916, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 1.0518178649937013, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 1.432016440228047, "Other_State_SOG": 0.0, "Environment_Proxy": 1.1073475417853031, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.0405405405405406, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:47.658613+00:00", "priorGP": 74, "currentTotalSOG": 9.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.251851851851852, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.00 SOG/game in 9 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 9 games. 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MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020891", "date": "20260203", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "TOR", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 11.583333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020499", "date": "20251213", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "TOR", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 13.65 }, { "gameId": "2024020918", "date": "20250225", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "TOR", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 5.3 }, { "gameId": "2024020623", "date": "20250104", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "TOR", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 15.033333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020195", "date": "20241105", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "TOR", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 10.066666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020125", "date": "20241026", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "TOR", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 13.25 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Reviewed October22 projected lineup and coach reports", "ppAssignmentSourceDate": "2026-10-13T18:05:51.141Z", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 108, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476932", "goalieName": "Anthony Stolarz", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8479365", "goals": 0, "sog": 4, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 3, "recordedAttempts": 5, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020891", "date": "20260203", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2 }, { "gameId": "2024020918", "date": "20250225", "season": 2024, "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2024020125", "date": "20241026", "season": 2024, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476932", "goalieName": "Anthony Stolarz", "opponent": "EDM", "games": 5, "availableGames": 5, "shotsAgainst": 140.0, "goalsAgainst": 14.0, "savePct": 0.9, "gaa": 3.2642487046632125, "gsax": -1.5539999999999994, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020891", "date": "20260203", "goalieTeam": "TOR", "opponent": "EDM", "shotsAgainst": 36.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.709 }, { "gameId": "2024020274", "date": "20241116", "goalieTeam": "TOR", "opponent": "EDM", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3640.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.584 }, { "gameId": "2022020660", "date": "20230111", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "EDM", "shotsAgainst": 16.0, "goalsAgainst": 0.0, "seconds": 1200.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.249 }, { "gameId": "2021020049", "date": "20211019", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "EDM", "shotsAgainst": 36.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3461.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.959 }, { "gameId": "2018020494", "date": "20181214", "goalieTeam": "PHI", "opponent": "EDM", "shotsAgainst": 22.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3539.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.945 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.0244626384583428, "adjustedSOG": 1.0244626384583428, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.0244626384583428, "adjustedSOG": 1.0244626384583428, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.09794290234711098, "goalHistoryGoals": 13.0, "goalHistoryShots": 164.0, "goalExpected": 0.10033884415678913, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.10033884415678913, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.09546912889723451, "goalProbability": 0.09546912889723451, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.128569262196373, "modelSOG": 1.0244626384583428, "historyGames": 141, "seasonGames": { "2024": 58, "2025": 74, "2026": 9 }, "historyGoals": 13.0, "historyShots": 164.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.07926829268292683, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.09794290234711098, "goalieFactor": 0.9986972168772468, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 48.03232263619561, "btb": { "id": "8479365", "name": "Trent Frederic", "score": 48.03232263619561, "components": { "Goal model": 36.04651162790697, "SOG model": 31.162790697674417, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 40.23255813953488, "Goalie": 60.73529411764706, "Team H2H": 62.18994778067885, "Goalie H2H": 48.396033829104695 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 6, "goalieH2HShots": 4, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 229 } }, { "id": "8476461", "name": "Sean Couturier", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "ANA", "position": "C", "currentGP": 12, "currentSOG": 1.1666666666666667, "priorSOG": 1.5256410256410255, "currentTOI": 17.058333333333334, "currentFiveTOI": 13.21111111111111, "ppShare": 0.04534883720930233, "rate": 1.4125030918522352, "fifty": 1.3302417181927106, "inputs": { "Player": "Sean Couturier", "Player_ID": "8476461", "Team": "PHI", "Opponent": "ANA", "Position": "C", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.5501599124423797, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.4134485119780993, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 12, "Prior_GP": 78, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.541631623212784, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.038861810038203, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 12.21294363256785, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 13.140598290598291, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 13.21111111111111, "Current_PP_Share": 0.04534883720930233, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.1922954529209541, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 156.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3440.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 7, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.042592592592593, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.45097328536255293, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.22867571059431527, "Other_State_SOG": 0.22435897435897434, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9949214190083264, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.5256410256410255, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/philadelphia-flyers/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:47.689574+00:00", "priorGP": 78, "currentTotalSOG": 14.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.21666666666666667, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.17 SOG/game in 12 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 12 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.459, "currentIXG": 0.12158333333333333, "priorTOI": 16.651495726495725, "priorPPTOI": 0.8188034188034188, "deploymentChange": 0.40683760683760894, "ppTOIChange": -0.6021367521367521, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021082", "date": "20260318", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 15.383333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020670", "date": "20260106", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 18.816666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020675", "date": "20250111", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 13.683333333333334 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 2.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "ANA", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 239.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 26.555555555555557, "mostAllowedRank": 18, "fiveSogAllowed60": 25.834281008587897, "pkSogAllowed60": 38.93928820655967, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 43.333333333333336, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 54.0, "C": 91.0, "R": 57.0, "L": 37.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.11111111111111, "L": 4.111111111111111, "R": 6.333333333333333, "D": 6.0 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 28.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.2, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 26.555555555555557, "oppPosSogAllowed": 10.11111111111111, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8480843", "team": "ANA", "name": "Lukas Dostal", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.8813559322033898, "gaa": 3.1634446397188047, "gsax": 2.846, "goalsAllowed": 21.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 23.846, "shotsAgainst": 177.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9815060369171769, "factor": 0.9815060369171769, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T16:38:16.530Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.10272850772921985, "goalHistoryGoals": 27.0, "goalHistoryShots": 288.0, "goalExpected": 0.12332088816641186, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.12104019621332128, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.11602004166338435, "goalProbability": 0.1140016549013854, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.2018386761998947, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 12, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.2004543908247074, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.541631623212784, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 13.21111111111111, "Current_PP_Share": 0.04534883720930233, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.042592592592593, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.22867571059431527, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.16666666666666666, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0050173142237073, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9117211340641708, "Position_Factor": 1.0116943517389423, "Input_GP": 12, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 156.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3440.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.038861810038203, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 12.21294363256785, "Prior_5v5_Min": 12.976068376068376, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.1922954529209541, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0337877241580407, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.437908496732026, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0337877241580407, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9117211340641708, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 4.5743329097839895, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021082", "date": "20260318", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 15.383333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020670", "date": "20260106", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 18.816666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020675", "date": "20250111", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 13.683333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020568", "date": "20241228", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 19.383333333333333 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff latest reported chart; October 21 final lineup pending", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 141, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 15, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480843", "goalieName": "Lukas Dostal", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8476461", "goals": 1, "sog": 12, "shootingPct": 0.08333333333333333, "gamesWithAttempts": 5, "recordedAttempts": 17, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021082", "date": "20260318", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 3 }, { "gameId": "2025020670", "date": "20260106", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 3 }, { "gameId": "2024020568", "date": "20241228", "season": 2024, "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 3 }, { "gameId": "2023020208", "date": "20231110", "season": 2023, "goals": 1, "sog": 2, "attempts": 4 }, { "gameId": "2023020117", "date": "20231028", "season": 2023, "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 4 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480843", "goalieName": "Lukas Dostal", "opponent": "PHI", "games": 5, "availableGames": 5, "shotsAgainst": 155.0, "goalsAgainst": 18.0, "savePct": 0.8838709677419355, "gaa": 3.646595385481148, "gsax": -2.507999999999999, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021082", "date": "20260318", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 28.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3704.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.611 }, { "gameId": "2025020670", "date": "20260106", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 38.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3560.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.171 }, { "gameId": "2024020568", "date": "20241228", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3472.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.781 }, { "gameId": "2023020208", "date": "20231110", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 35.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3450.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.281 }, { "gameId": "2023020117", "date": "20231028", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3584.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.648 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.2004543908247074, "adjustedSOG": 1.2004543908247074, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.2004543908247074, "adjustedSOG": 1.2004543908247074, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.10272850772921985, "goalHistoryGoals": 27.0, "goalHistoryShots": 288.0, "goalExpected": 0.12332088816641186, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.12332088816641186, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.11602004166338435, "goalProbability": 0.11602004166338435, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12858660998937302, "modelSOG": 1.2004543908247074, "historyGames": 169, "seasonGames": { "2024": 79, "2025": 78, "2026": 12 }, "historyGoals": 27.0, "historyShots": 288.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.09375, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.10272850772921985, "goalieFactor": 0.9815060369171769, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 46.585303789817544, "btb": { "id": "8476461", "name": "Sean Couturier", "score": 46.585303789817544, "components": { "Goal model": 44.651162790697676, "SOG model": 41.627906976744185, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 31.627906976744185, "Goalie": 44.85294117647059, "Team H2H": 52.12607236105931, "Goalie H2H": 51.06680213360427 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": 12, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 256 } }, { "id": "8482157", "name": "Will Cuylle", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "OTT", "position": "L", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 2.4545454545454546, "priorSOG": 1.9146341463414633, "currentTOI": 15.745454545454544, "currentFiveTOI": 12.048484848484849, "ppShare": 0.27534854245880863, "rate": 1.8204483632920354, "fifty": 2.0606731112330303, "inputs": { "Player": "Will Cuylle", "Player_ID": "8482157", "Team": "NYR", "Opponent": "OTT", "Position": "L", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.7118894883297124, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.9829604652669628, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 11, "Prior_GP": 82, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 9.507042253521126, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.082201879953308, "Current_PP_SOG60": 24.856156501726122, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 14.032983508245877, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 12.403939393939394, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 12.048484848484849, "Current_PP_Share": 0.27534854245880863, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.3699923449859658, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 869.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3156.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 7, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.145909090909091, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 1.5630270889541622, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 1.4169185678073513, "Other_State_SOG": 0.20853658536585365, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9343896732646498, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.9146341463414633, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-york-rangers/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:47.712983+00:00", "priorGP": 82, "currentTotalSOG": 27.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.3166666666666667, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.45 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 4.232, "currentIXG": 0.38472727272727275, "priorTOI": 16.85711382113821, "priorPPTOI": 1.3556910569105691, "deploymentChange": -1.1116592756836656, "ppTOIChange": -0.039024390243902474, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021119", "date": "20260323", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 18.25 }, { "gameId": "2025020737", "date": "20260114", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 13.116666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020427", "date": "20251204", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 13.3 }, { "gameId": "2024021003", "date": "20250308", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 15.383333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020750", "date": "20250121", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 17.0 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 6, "h2hSOG": 1.2, "opponentDefense": { "team": "OTT", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 255.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 25.5, "mostAllowedRank": 25, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.477120373069077, "pkSogAllowed60": 46.82395644283122, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 38.7, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 67.0, "C": 98.0, "R": 48.0, "L": 42.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.8, "L": 4.2, "R": 4.8, "D": 6.7 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 24.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 22.6, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 25.5, "oppPosSogAllowed": 4.2, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8477992", "team": "OTT", "name": "Jonas Johansson", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 0, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "goalsAllowed": null, "xGoalsAgainst": null, "shotsAgainst": null, "scenarioFactor": 1, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; no matching goalie statistics in this snapshot, so the goalie factor remains neutral.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T15:15:50.280Z", "idResolution": "Exact goalie name mapped to one unique MoneyPuck player ID" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.12809605672039598, "goalHistoryGoals": 43.0, "goalHistoryShots": 336.0, "goalExpected": 0.2923464862410027, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.2923464862410027, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.2534901642289529, "goalProbability": 0.2534901642289529, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 2.2822442292593546, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 9.507042253521126, "Current_PP_SOG60": 24.856156501726122, "Current_5v5_Min": 12.048484848484849, "Current_PP_Share": 0.27534854245880863, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.145909090909091, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.4169185678073513, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9604171757553249, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9920036605974645, "Position_Factor": 0.9857697565791972, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 869.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3156.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.082201879953308, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 14.032983508245877, "Prior_5v5_Min": 13.233333333333334, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.3699923449859658, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.914848289218851, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.062091503267974, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.914848289218851, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9920036605974645, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 9.507042253521126, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 24.856156501726122, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 1.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 1.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021119", "date": "20260323", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 18.25 }, { "gameId": "2025020737", "date": "20260114", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 13.116666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020427", "date": "20251204", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 13.3 }, { "gameId": "2024021003", "date": "20250308", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 15.383333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020750", "date": "20250121", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 17.0 }, { "gameId": "2024020170", "date": "20241101", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 13.433333333333334 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 177, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 41, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477992", "goalieName": "Jonas Johansson", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8482157", "goals": 0, "sog": 5, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 2, "recordedAttempts": 6, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020391", "date": "20251129", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2 }, { "gameId": "2024021310", "date": "20250417", "season": 2024, "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 4 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477992", "goalieName": "Jonas Johansson", "opponent": "NYR", "games": 4, "availableGames": 4, "shotsAgainst": 43.0, "goalsAgainst": 6.0, "savePct": 0.8604651162790697, "gaa": 2.615328732292045, "gsax": -1.567, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020391", "date": "20251129", "goalieTeam": "TBL", "opponent": "NYR", "shotsAgainst": 13.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.688 }, { "gameId": "2025020265", "date": "20251112", "goalieTeam": "TBL", "opponent": "NYR", "shotsAgainst": 7.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 993.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 0.748 }, { "gameId": "2024021310", "date": "20250417", "goalieTeam": "TBL", "opponent": "NYR", "shotsAgainst": 22.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3573.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.983 }, { "gameId": "2021020399", "date": "20211208", "goalieTeam": "COL", "opponent": "NYR", "shotsAgainst": 1.0, "goalsAgainst": 0.0, "seconds": 93.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 0.014 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 2.2822442292593546, "adjustedSOG": 2.2822442292593546, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 2.328820642101382, "adjustedSOG": 2.2822442292593546, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.12809605672039598, "goalHistoryGoals": 43.0, "goalHistoryShots": 336.0, "goalExpected": 0.29831274106224764, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.29831274106224764, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.257930772064387, "goalProbability": 0.257930772064387, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12849880730092647, "modelSOG": 2.2822442292593546, "historyGames": 175, "seasonGames": { "2024": 82, "2025": 82, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 43.0, "historyShots": 336.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.12797619047619047, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.12809605672039598, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 60.49283881838606, "btb": { "id": "8482157", "name": "Will Cuylle", "score": 60.49283881838606, "components": { "Goal model": 84.18604651162791, "SOG model": 82.32558139534883, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 92.79069767441861, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 35.06853785900783, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 6, "goalieH2HShots": 5, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 86 } }, { "id": "8481726", "name": "Adam Edstrom", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "PIT", "position": "R", "currentGP": 8, "currentSOG": 1.875, "priorSOG": 0.8857142857142857, "currentTOI": 13.702083333333333, "currentFiveTOI": 12.329166666666667, "ppShare": 0.006815600151457781, "rate": 1.1360292027002612, "fifty": 1.2385997671786877, "inputs": { "Player": "Adam Edstrom", "Player_ID": "8481726", "Team": "NSH", "Opponent": "PIT", "Position": "C", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 0.9860908590041284, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.1846910389374052, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 8, "Prior_GP": 35, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 6.083136194660359, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.688363321270197, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 11.433130952380953, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 12.329166666666667, "Current_PP_Share": 0.006815600151457781, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.003249022519688284, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 18.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2641.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 5, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.906041666666667, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.028188284785732775, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.03343761832639152, "Other_State_SOG": 0.0625, "Environment_Proxy": 1.0227478110844896, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 0.8857142857142857, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/nashville-predators/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:47.736656+00:00", "priorGP": 35, "currentTotalSOG": 15.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.0375, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.88 SOG/game in 8 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 8 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 3.0269999999999997, "currentIXG": 0.37837499999999996, "priorTOI": 9.460952380952381, "priorPPTOI": 0.011904761904761906, "deploymentChange": 4.241130952380951, "ppTOIChange": 0.025595238095238095, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020029", "date": "20251011", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "PIT", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 11.3 }, { "gameId": "2025020002", "date": "20251007", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "PIT", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 8.533333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020421", "date": "20241206", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "PIT", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 6.183333333333334 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 1.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "PIT", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 279.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.9, "mostAllowedRank": 12, "fiveSogAllowed60": 26.122338261223383, "pkSogAllowed60": 50.11600928074246, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 42.4, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 55.0, "L": 47.0, "D": 70.0, "C": 107.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.7, "L": 4.7, "R": 5.5, "D": 7.0 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 25.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 3, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 28.333333333333332, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.9, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.5, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8481668", "team": "PIT", "name": "Arturs Silovs", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 6, "savePct": 0.8662420382165605, "gaa": 3.5131744040150563, "gsax": -1.0760000000000005, "goalsAllowed": 21.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 19.924, "shotsAgainst": 157.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0136052553954562, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Likely starter per Daily Faceoff; no Model Goal adjustment until confirmed.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T15:01:09.604Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.13359611909823535, "goalHistoryGoals": 12.0, "goalHistoryShots": 86.0, "goalExpected": 0.24727145076536092, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.24727145076536092, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.21907131893096277, "goalProbability": 0.21907131893096277, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 8, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.8508879781420768, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 6.083136194660359, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 12.329166666666667, "Current_PP_Share": 0.006815600151457781, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.906041666666667, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.03343761832639152, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.625, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.011083778612368, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0249142728068137, "Position_Factor": 0.9996890729968466, "Input_GP": 8, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 18.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2641.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.688363321270197, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 9.342380952380953, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.003249022519688284, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.010928961748634, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.382352941176471, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.010928961748634, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0249142728068137, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 6.083136194660359, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020029", "date": "20251011", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "PIT", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 11.3 }, { "gameId": "2025020002", "date": "20251007", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "PIT", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 8.533333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020421", "date": "20241206", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "PIT", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 6.183333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020007", "date": "20241009", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "PIT", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 10.8 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 44, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481668", "goalieName": "Arturs Silovs", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8481726", "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 3, "recordedAttempts": 4, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020029", "date": "20251011", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2 }, { "gameId": "2025020002", "date": "20251007", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2024020300", "date": "20241119", "season": 2024, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481668", "goalieName": "Arturs Silovs", "opponent": "NSH", "games": 2, "availableGames": 2, "shotsAgainst": 62.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "savePct": 0.9193548387096774, "gaa": 2.397123451857771, "gsax": 1.6559999999999997, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020281", "date": "20251114", "goalieTeam": "PIT", "opponent": "NSH", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3644.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.231 }, { "gameId": "2022021010", "date": "20230306", "goalieTeam": "VAN", "opponent": "NSH", "shotsAgainst": 32.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3865.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.425 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.8508879781420768, "adjustedSOG": 1.8508879781420768, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.8886612021857927, "adjustedSOG": 1.8508879781420768, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.13359611909823535, "goalHistoryGoals": 12.0, "goalHistoryShots": 86.0, "goalExpected": 0.25231780690342953, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.25231780690342953, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.22300223642728778, "goalProbability": 0.22300223642728778, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12848878152271775, "modelSOG": 1.8508879781420768, "historyGames": 94, "seasonGames": { "2024": 51, "2025": 35, "2026": 8 }, "historyGoals": 12.0, "historyShots": 86.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.13953488372093023, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.13359611909823535, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 58.534866372318554, "btb": { "id": "8481726", "name": "Adam Edstrom", "score": 58.534866372318554, "components": { "Goal model": 77.20930232558139, "SOG model": 70.0, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 90.23255813953489, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 37.131667288325254, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Likely", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": 3, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 105 } }, { "id": "8478401", "name": "Pavel Zacha", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "position": "C", "currentGP": 9, "currentSOG": 1.7777777777777777, "priorSOG": 1.6794871794871795, "currentTOI": 18.453703703703706, "currentFiveTOI": 14.225925925925926, "ppShare": 0.580360889634914, "rate": 1.8937461770955681, "fifty": 1.9697706583510468, "inputs": { "Player": "Pavel Zacha", "Player_ID": "8478401", "Team": "BOS", "Opponent": "SJS", "Position": "C", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.7731094510726761, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.7880899552573324, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 9, "Prior_GP": 78, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 6.0921634990887785, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.1295417817859565, "Current_PP_SOG60": 5.206073752711497, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 7.7910032462513525, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 13.647186609686608, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 14.225925925925926, "Current_PP_Share": 0.580360889634914, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.6304807436767461, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1383.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2383.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 6, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.950833333333334, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 2.947710550983151, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 2.87327003776752, "Other_State_SOG": 0.23034188034188033, "Environment_Proxy": 1.0796680236682055, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.6794871794871795, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/boston-bruins/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:47.760833+00:00", "priorGP": 78, "currentTotalSOG": 16.0, "currentPPTOI": 2.5611111111111113, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.78 SOG/game in 9 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 9 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 2.433, "currentIXG": 0.2703333333333333, "priorTOI": 16.846153846153847, "priorPPTOI": 2.7645299145299145, "deploymentChange": 1.6075498575498592, "ppTOIChange": -0.20341880341880314, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2026020105", "date": "20261013", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 17.533333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2025021027", "date": "20260312", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 19.083333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2025020351", "date": "20251123", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 21.183333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024021117", "date": "20250322", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 19.166666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2024020740", "date": "20250120", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 20.116666666666667 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 5, "h2hSOG": 1.4, "opponentDefense": { "team": "SJS", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 286.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 28.6, "mostAllowedRank": 10, "fiveSogAllowed60": 25.210423540502322, "pkSogAllowed60": 49.90958408679928, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 47.8, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 86.0, "C": 94.0, "R": 53.0, "L": 53.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.4, "L": 5.3, "R": 5.3, "D": 8.6 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 30.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 29.833333333333332, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 28.6, "oppPosSogAllowed": 9.4, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8477968", "team": "SJS", "name": "Alex Nedeljkovic", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 4, "savePct": 0.9173553719008265, "gaa": 2.372479240806643, "gsax": 4.638, "goalsAllowed": 10.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 14.638, "shotsAgainst": 121.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9618500831522029, "factor": 0.9618500831522029, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T16:06:01.887Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.15525240501173185, "goalHistoryGoals": 46.0, "goalHistoryShots": 279.0, "goalExpected": 0.28076516026316634, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.2700539927453681, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.24479433304276216, "goalProbability": 0.23666172150511555, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.8132611537646606, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 9, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.8084432266408368, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 6.0921634990887785, "Current_PP_SOG60": 5.206073752711497, "Current_5v5_Min": 14.225925925925926, "Current_PP_Share": 0.580360889634914, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.950833333333334, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 2.87327003776752, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.1111111111111111, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9930883597207428, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0259958714356598, "Position_Factor": 0.9935572564554559, "Input_GP": 9, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1383.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2383.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.1295417817859565, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 7.7910032462513525, "Prior_5v5_Min": 12.296794871794871, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.6304807436767461, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9979916897506925, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.437908496732026, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9979916897506925, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0259958714356598, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 6.0921634990887785, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 5.206073752711497, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.5 }, { "season": "2026", "label": "2026–27", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 1.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2026020105", "date": "20261013", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 17.533333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2025021027", "date": "20260312", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 19.083333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2025020351", "date": "20251123", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 21.183333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024021117", "date": "20250322", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 19.166666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2024020740", "date": "20250120", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 20.116666666666667 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "ppAssignmentSourceDate": "2026-10-12T22:24:39.463Z", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 123, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 54, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477968", "goalieName": "Alex Nedeljkovic", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8478401", "goals": 3, "sog": 10, "shootingPct": 0.3, "gamesWithAttempts": 5, "recordedAttempts": 18, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021027", "date": "20260312", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 4 }, { "gameId": "2023021279", "date": "20240413", "season": 2023, "goals": 1, "sog": 3, "attempts": 4 }, { "gameId": "2023021012", "date": "20240309", "season": 2023, "goals": 2, "sog": 2, "attempts": 4 }, { "gameId": "2023020589", "date": "20240104", "season": 2023, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 3 }, { "gameId": "2021021261", "date": "20220424", "season": 2021, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 3 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477968", "goalieName": "Alex Nedeljkovic", "opponent": "BOS", "games": 5, "availableGames": 8, "shotsAgainst": 134.0, "goalsAgainst": 17.0, "savePct": 0.8731343283582089, "gaa": 3.7850207186591627, "gsax": -3.2609999999999997, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021027", "date": "20260312", "goalieTeam": "SJS", "opponent": "BOS", "shotsAgainst": 41.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.661 }, { "gameId": "2024020952", "date": "20250301", "goalieTeam": "PIT", "opponent": "BOS", "shotsAgainst": 25.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3474.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.566 }, { "gameId": "2023021279", "date": "20240413", "goalieTeam": "PIT", "opponent": "BOS", "shotsAgainst": 16.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 1895.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.22 }, { "gameId": "2023021012", "date": "20240309", "goalieTeam": "PIT", "opponent": "BOS", "shotsAgainst": 23.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.955 }, { "gameId": "2023020589", "date": "20240104", "goalieTeam": "PIT", "opponent": "BOS", "shotsAgainst": 29.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.337 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.8084432266408368, "adjustedSOG": 1.8084432266408368, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.8084432266408368, "adjustedSOG": 1.8084432266408368, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.15525240501173185, "goalHistoryGoals": 46.0, "goalHistoryShots": 279.0, "goalExpected": 0.28076516026316634, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.28076516026316634, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.24479433304276216, "goalProbability": 0.24479433304276216, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12840661499446368, "modelSOG": 1.8084432266408368, "historyGames": 169, "seasonGames": { "2024": 82, "2025": 78, "2026": 9 }, "historyGoals": 46.0, "historyShots": 279.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.16487455197132617, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.15525240501173185, "goalieFactor": 0.9618500831522029, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 65.29440562711554, "btb": { "id": "8478401", "name": "Pavel Zacha", "score": 65.29440562711554, "components": { "Goal model": 82.32558139534883, "SOG model": 68.83720930232558, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 78.13953488372093, "Goalie": 97.5, "Team H2H": 47.51958224543081, "Goalie H2H": 56.955380577427825 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 5, "goalieH2HShots": 10, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 33 } }, { "id": "8478397", "name": "Rasmus Andersson", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "CBJ", "position": "D", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 2.0, "priorSOG": 2.197530864197531, "currentTOI": 18.831818181818182, "currentFiveTOI": 16.672727272727272, "ppShare": 0.26156299840510366, "rate": 2.1345421752461795, "fifty": 2.1012605909638244, "inputs": { "Player": "Rasmus Andersson", "Player_ID": "8478397", "Team": "VGK", "Opponent": "CBJ", "Position": "D", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 2.278309892332037, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 2.158015302974024, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 11, "Prior_GP": 81, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.561613958560524, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.559940968527989, "Current_PP_SOG60": 14.634146341463415, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 10.206084396467125, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 17.06664983164983, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 16.672727272727272, "Current_PP_Share": 0.26156299840510366, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.4132492175970436, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 984.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3762.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 6, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.392708333333333, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 1.6559328226773162, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 1.410532961190856, "Other_State_SOG": 0.19797979797979798, "Environment_Proxy": 1.0241190783267258, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 2.197530864197531, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/vegas-golden-knights/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:47.784849+00:00", "priorGP": 81, "currentTotalSOG": 22.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.4909090909090907, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.00 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.2469999999999999, "currentIXG": 0.11336363636363635, "priorTOI": 23.20164609053498, "priorPPTOI": 1.887037037037037, "deploymentChange": -4.369827908716797, "ppTOIChange": -0.39612794612794633, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020728", "date": "20260113", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 22.783333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2025020215", "date": "20251105", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 21.483333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020404", "date": "20241203", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 21.616666666666667 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 1.6666666666666667, "opponentDefense": { "team": "CBJ", "games": 8, "sogAllowedTotal": 222.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.75, "mostAllowedRank": 13, "fiveSogAllowed60": 26.021128266541208, "pkSogAllowed60": 45.718967636214664, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 43.125, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 66.0, "D": 61.0, "R": 49.0, "L": 46.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 8.25, "L": 5.75, "R": 6.125, "D": 7.625 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 28.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.666666666666668, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.75, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.625, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8475660", "team": "CBJ", "name": "Cam Talbot", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 4, "savePct": 0.8674698795180723, "gaa": 3.3959351685104195, "gsax": -0.8840000000000003, "goalsAllowed": 11.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 10.116, "shotsAgainst": 83.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0106708091071457, "factor": 1.0106708091071457, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T15:32:32.146Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.07720553482826398, "goalHistoryGoals": 30.0, "goalHistoryShots": 363.0, "goalExpected": 0.15136164787323156, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.1529767991238298, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.14046320720970593, "goalProbability": 0.1418503685962334, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.13871613865274746, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.9605025495894883, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.561613958560524, "Current_PP_SOG60": 14.634146341463415, "Current_5v5_Min": 16.672727272727272, "Current_PP_Share": 0.26156299840510366, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.392708333333333, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.410532961190856, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.09090909090909091, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0080456056426796, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9827600403123256, "Position_Factor": 1.0020745834802773, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 984.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3762.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.559940968527989, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 10.206084396467125, "Prior_5v5_Min": 17.985802469135802, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.4132492175970436, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0168544879398973, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.34640522875817, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0168544879398973, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9827600403123256, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.561613958560524, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 14.634146341463415, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020728", "date": "20260113", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 22.783333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2025020215", "date": "20251105", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 21.483333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020404", "date": "20241203", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 21.616666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020368", "date": "20241129", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 22.166666666666668 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 210, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 41, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475660", "goalieName": "Cam Talbot", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8478397", "goals": 1, "sog": 23, "shootingPct": 0.043478260869565216, "gamesWithAttempts": 8, "recordedAttempts": 31, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020970", "date": "20260304", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2024020834", "date": "20250201", "season": 2024, "goals": 0, "sog": 4, "attempts": 5 }, { "gameId": "2024020350", "date": "20241127", "season": 2024, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2 }, { "gameId": "2023021264", "date": "20240411", "season": 2023, "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 4 }, { "gameId": "2023020935", "date": "20240227", "season": 2023, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 3 }, { "gameId": "2023020526", "date": "20231223", "season": 2023, "goals": 1, "sog": 5, "attempts": 7 }, { "gameId": "2021021295", "date": "20220428", "season": 2021, "goals": 0, "sog": 5, "attempts": 7 }, { "gameId": "2021020855", "date": "20220301", "season": 2021, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475660", "goalieName": "Cam Talbot", "opponent": "VGK", "games": 5, "availableGames": 22, "shotsAgainst": 160.0, "goalsAgainst": 16.0, "savePct": 0.9, "gaa": 3.176704169424222, "gsax": 0.6329999999999996, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020970", "date": "20260304", "goalieTeam": "DET", "opponent": "VGK", "shotsAgainst": 25.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3728.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.397 }, { "gameId": "2024021115", "date": "20250322", "goalieTeam": "DET", "opponent": "VGK", "shotsAgainst": 35.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3491.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.784 }, { "gameId": "2023020544", "date": "20231228", "goalieTeam": "LAK", "opponent": "VGK", "shotsAgainst": 32.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3478.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.46 }, { "gameId": "2023020192", "date": "20231108", "goalieTeam": "LAK", "opponent": "VGK", "shotsAgainst": 38.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.55 }, { "gameId": "2023020125", "date": "20231028", "goalieTeam": "LAK", "opponent": "VGK", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3835.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.442 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.9605025495894883, "adjustedSOG": 1.9605025495894883, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 2.0005128057035595, "adjustedSOG": 1.9605025495894883, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.07720553482826398, "goalHistoryGoals": 30.0, "goalHistoryShots": 363.0, "goalExpected": 0.15445066109513425, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.15609877461615287, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.14311423109542362, "goalProbability": 0.14452531298614446, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.1411081890720839 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05746162625486223, "modelSOG": 1.9605025495894883, "historyGames": 173, "seasonGames": { "2024": 81, "2025": 81, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 30.0, "historyShots": 363.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.08264462809917356, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.07720553482826398, "goalieFactor": 1.0106708091071457, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 46.454364050675494, "btb": { "id": "8478397", "name": "Rasmus Andersson", "score": 46.454364050675494, "components": { "Goal model": 52.325581395348834, "SOG model": 74.88372093023256, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 29.069767441860463, "Goalie": 13.088235294117647, "Team H2H": 61.301753077209995, "Goalie H2H": 38.33998489914788 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": 23, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 258 } }, { "id": "8482665", "name": "Matty Beniers", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "position": "C", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 1.2, "priorSOG": 1.8170731707317074, "currentTOI": 17.316666666666666, "currentFiveTOI": 13.861666666666668, "ppShare": 0.47001862197392924, "rate": 1.6551360940836295, "fifty": 1.4802874129740302, "inputs": { "Player": "Matty Beniers", "Player_ID": "8482665", "Team": "SEA", "Opponent": "MIN", "Position": "C", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.8877387728293322, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.5553778513257694, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 10, "Prior_GP": 82, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.46278706264278, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.6301630471188755, "Current_PP_SOG60": 8.55784469096672, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 10.99060014461316, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 14.254447154471544, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 13.861666666666668, "Current_PP_Share": 0.47001862197392924, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.6077221283701307, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1262.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2685.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 6, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.085, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 2.6001113917448357, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 2.39004469273743, "Other_State_SOG": 0.15268292682926832, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9620662188708584, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.8170731707317074, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/seattle-kraken/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:47.810890+00:00", "priorGP": 82, "currentTotalSOG": 12.0, "currentPPTOI": 2.1033333333333335, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.20 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.878, "currentIXG": 0.1878, "priorTOI": 19.276626016260163, "priorPPTOI": 2.5298780487804877, "deploymentChange": -1.9599593495934968, "ppTOIChange": -0.4265447154471542, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021240", "date": "20260407", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 18.933333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020693", "date": "20260108", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 9.0, "toi": 19.916666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2025020465", "date": "20251208", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 18.95 }, { "gameId": "2024021088", "date": "20250319", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 18.6 }, { "gameId": "2024020982", "date": "20250304", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 17.466666666666665 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 6, "h2hSOG": 2.2, "opponentDefense": { "team": "MIN", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 261.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 26.1, "mostAllowedRank": 21, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.40367597004765, "pkSogAllowed60": 45.30289727831431, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 40.4, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 77.0, "C": 114.0, "R": 29.0, "L": 41.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 11.4, "L": 4.1, "R": 2.9, "D": 7.7 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 24.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 28.333333333333332, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 26.1, "oppPosSogAllowed": 11.4, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8482661", "team": "MIN", "name": "Jesper Wallstedt", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 9, "savePct": 0.9152542372881356, "gaa": 2.1979363819525, "gsax": 6.934999999999999, "goalsAllowed": 20.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 26.935, "shotsAgainst": 236.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9495343259526882, "factor": 0.9495343259526882, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T18:37:27.914Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.1344302947735244, "goalHistoryGoals": 42.0, "goalHistoryShots": 308.0, "goalExpected": 0.17684151508556997, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.1679170888272288, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.16208742949753543, "goalProbability": 0.15457607313182853, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.7511356365706906, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.3154885614399348, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.46278706264278, "Current_PP_SOG60": 8.55784469096672, "Current_5v5_Min": 13.861666666666668, "Current_PP_Share": 0.47001862197392924, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.085, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 2.39004469273743, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.1, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.957587153238364, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9748801923935355, "Position_Factor": 1.03255444646098, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1262.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2685.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.6301630471188755, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 10.99060014461316, "Prior_5v5_Min": 15.170934959349593, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.6077221283701307, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.1039473684210526, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.437908496732026, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.1039473684210526, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9748801923935355, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 3.46278706264278, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 8.55784469096672, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 2.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 2.6666666666666665 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021240", "date": "20260407", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 18.933333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020693", "date": "20260108", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 9.0, "toi": 19.916666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2025020465", "date": "20251208", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 18.95 }, { "gameId": "2024021088", "date": "20250319", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 18.6 }, { "gameId": "2024020982", "date": "20250304", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 17.466666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2024020033", "date": "20241012", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 18.2 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 164, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 62, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482661", "goalieName": "Jesper Wallstedt", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8482665", "goals": 1, "sog": 7, "shootingPct": 0.14285714285714285, "gamesWithAttempts": 2, "recordedAttempts": 13, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021240", "date": "20260407", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 5 }, { "gameId": "2025020693", "date": "20260108", "season": 2025, "goals": 1, "sog": 4, "attempts": 8 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482661", "goalieName": "Jesper Wallstedt", "opponent": "SEA", "games": 2, "availableGames": 2, "shotsAgainst": 55.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "savePct": 0.9272727272727272, "gaa": 1.9647973802701597, "gsax": 2.874, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021240", "date": "20260407", "goalieTeam": "MIN", "opponent": "SEA", "shotsAgainst": 27.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.053 }, { "gameId": "2025020693", "date": "20260108", "goalieTeam": "MIN", "opponent": "SEA", "shotsAgainst": 28.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3729.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.821 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.3154885614399348, "adjustedSOG": 1.3154885614399348, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.3154885614399348, "adjustedSOG": 1.3154885614399348, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.1344302947735244, "goalHistoryGoals": 42.0, "goalHistoryShots": 308.0, "goalExpected": 0.17684151508556997, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.17684151508556997, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.16208742949753543, "goalProbability": 0.16208742949753543, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1284756026759796, "modelSOG": 1.3154885614399348, "historyGames": 174, "seasonGames": { "2024": 82, "2025": 82, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 42.0, "historyShots": 308.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.13636363636363635, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.1344302947735244, "goalieFactor": 0.9495343259526882, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 52.26708723793461, "btb": { "id": "8482665", "name": "Matty Beniers", "score": 52.26708723793461, "components": { "Goal model": 60.23255813953488, "SOG model": 48.372093023255815, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 59.76744186046512, "Goalie": 23.676470588235293, "Team H2H": 61.40665796344648, "Goalie H2H": 52.465810194778285 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 6, "goalieH2HShots": 7, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 184 } }, { "id": "8481598", "name": "Philip Broberg", "team": "STL", "opponent": "CAR", "position": "D", "currentGP": 9, "currentSOG": 2.111111111111111, "priorSOG": 1.2098765432098766, "currentTOI": 22.992592592592594, "currentFiveTOI": 17.729629629629628, "ppShare": 0.2215909090909091, "rate": 1.1023134530189103, "fifty": 1.2924869791411997, "inputs": { "Player": "Philip Broberg", "Player_ID": "8481598", "Team": "STL", "Opponent": "CAR", "Position": "D", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.134949191136913, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.2374906511096084, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 9, "Prior_GP": 81, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.640275746814289, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.0813800368712143, "Current_PP_SOG60": 6.153846153846154, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 7.545851528384279, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 18.035925925925923, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 17.729629629629628, "Current_PP_Share": 0.2215909090909091, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.285577395580385, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 585.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2640.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 5, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.016414141414142, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 1.2078865846780154, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 1.1115917699724518, "Other_State_SOG": 0.12222222222222223, "Environment_Proxy": 0.85, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.2098765432098766, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/st-louis-blues/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:47.834495+00:00", "priorGP": 81, "currentTotalSOG": 19.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.0833333333333333, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.11 SOG/game in 9 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 9 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.31, "currentIXG": 0.14555555555555555, "priorTOI": 23.35761316872428, "priorPPTOI": 1.1779835390946503, "deploymentChange": -0.3650205761316876, "ppTOIChange": -0.094650205761317, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021033", "date": "20260312", "team": "STL", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 23.416666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2024020084", "date": "20241019", "team": "STL", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 21.433333333333334 } ], "h2hGames": 2, "h2hAvailableGames": 2, "h2hSOG": 0.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "CAR", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 246.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 22.363636363636363, "mostAllowedRank": 31, "fiveSogAllowed60": 21.75191064079953, "pkSogAllowed60": 32.87187039764359, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 33.09090909090909, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 77.0, "R": 66.0, "D": 59.0, "L": 44.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.0, "L": 4.0, "R": 6.0, "D": 5.363636363636363 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 23.0, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 7, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 22.428571428571427, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 22.363636363636363, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.363636363636363, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8481611", "team": "CAR", "name": "Pyotr Kochetkov", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 6, "savePct": 0.8991596638655462, "gaa": 1.9842910293509715, "gsax": 2.2720000000000002, "goalsAllowed": 12.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 14.272, "shotsAgainst": 119.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9828959307519136, "factor": 0.9828959307519136, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T22:32:34.088Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.0692954954512754, "goalHistoryGoals": 16.0, "goalHistoryShots": 214.0, "goalExpected": 0.1289786035321181, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.12677254456578327, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.12100722731499154, "goalProbability": 0.11906597695837828, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.19412503566132583, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 9, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.8612840949064056, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.640275746814289, "Current_PP_SOG60": 6.153846153846154, "Current_5v5_Min": 17.729629629629628, "Current_PP_Share": 0.2215909090909091, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.016414141414142, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.1115917699724518, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.3333333333333333, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9235603264096603, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.85, "Position_Factor": 0.9854836768055022, "Input_GP": 9, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 585.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2640.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.0813800368712143, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 7.545851528384279, "Prior_5v5_Min": 18.750617283950618, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.285577395580385, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.8586256566683613, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.34640522875817, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.8586256566683613, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.85, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.640275746814289, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 6.153846153846154, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 0.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 0.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021033", "date": "20260312", "team": "STL", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 23.416666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2024020084", "date": "20241019", "team": "STL", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 21.433333333333334 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. 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Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481611", "goalieName": "Pyotr Kochetkov", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8481598", "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 2, "recordedAttempts": 2, "log": [ { "gameId": "2024020084", "date": "20241019", "season": 2024, "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2023020279", "date": "20231122", "season": 2023, "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 1 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481611", "goalieName": "Pyotr Kochetkov", "opponent": "STL", "games": 3, "availableGames": 3, "shotsAgainst": 60.0, "goalsAgainst": 6.0, "savePct": 0.9, "gaa": 2.610587382160986, "gsax": -0.46099999999999985, "log": [ { "gameId": "2024020284", "date": "20241117", "goalieTeam": "CAR", "opponent": "STL", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3598.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.005 }, { "gameId": "2024020084", "date": "20241019", "goalieTeam": "CAR", "opponent": "STL", "shotsAgainst": 19.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3476.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.804 }, { "gameId": "2022020369", "date": "20221201", "goalieTeam": "CAR", "opponent": "STL", "shotsAgainst": 11.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 1200.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 0.73 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.8612840949064056, "adjustedSOG": 1.8612840949064056, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.8612840949064056, "adjustedSOG": 1.8612840949064056, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.0692954954512754, "goalHistoryGoals": 16.0, "goalHistoryShots": 214.0, "goalExpected": 0.1289786035321181, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.1289786035321181, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.12100722731499154, "goalProbability": 0.12100722731499154, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05758785571700478, "modelSOG": 1.8612840949064056, "historyGames": 158, "seasonGames": { "2024": 68, "2025": 81, "2026": 9 }, "historyGoals": 16.0, "historyShots": 214.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.07476635514018691, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.0692954954512754, "goalieFactor": 0.9828959307519136, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 49.06659124272698, "btb": { "id": "8481598", "name": "Philip Broberg", "score": 49.06659124272698, "components": { "Goal model": 46.04651162790697, "SOG model": 70.93023255813954, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 46.51162790697674, "Goalie": 50.14705882352941, "Team H2H": 44.2993907745866, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 2, "goalieH2HShots": 0, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 211 } }, { "id": "8484154", "name": "Jonathan Castagna", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "DET", "position": "C", "currentGP": 5, "currentSOG": 1.0, "priorSOG": null, "currentTOI": 11.276666666666667, "currentFiveTOI": 10.296666666666667, "ppShare": 0.0, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:47.837413+00:00", "priorGP": null, "currentTotalSOG": 5.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.0, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.00 SOG/game in 5 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 5 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.725, "currentIXG": 0.145, "priorTOI": null, "priorPPTOI": null, "deploymentChange": null, "ppTOIChange": null, "h2hLog": [], "h2hGames": 0, "h2hAvailableGames": 0, "h2hSOG": null, "opponentDefense": { "team": "DET", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 243.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.0, "mostAllowedRank": 17, "fiveSogAllowed60": 24.49072666463971, "pkSogAllowed60": 47.14573539288113, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 41.22222222222222, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 39.0, "C": 96.0, "D": 73.0, "L": 35.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.666666666666666, "L": 3.888888888888889, "R": 4.333333333333333, "D": 8.11111111111111 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 29.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 2, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 28.5, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.0, "oppPosSogAllowed": 10.666666666666666, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8476434", "team": "DET", "name": "John Gibson", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 6, "savePct": 0.8734177215189873, "gaa": 3.5755077717634207, "gsax": -1.6310000000000002, "goalsAllowed": 20.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 18.369, "shotsAgainst": 158.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0182492009293351, "factor": 1.0182492009293351, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T17:52:44.365Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.12238377740506688, "goalHistoryGoals": 0.0, "goalHistoryShots": 5.0, "goalExpected": 0.1299312825577631, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.13230242464016592, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.12184422653411696, "goalProbability": 0.12392399195940165, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.20797654252846937, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 5, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.0616707974923458, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.827128520556815, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 10.296666666666667, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.265740740740741, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.0, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9801217943191682, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9957661672519493, "Position_Factor": 1.0165840501530836, "Input_GP": 5, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1002.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": null, "Prior_PP_SOG60": null, "Prior_5v5_Min": null, "Prior_PP_Share": null, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0616707974923458, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.437908496732026, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0616707974923458, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9957661672519493, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.827128520556815, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Reviewed October22 projected lineup and coach reports", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 1, "playerPriorWeight": 0, "currentSeasonOnly": true }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 1, "playerPriorWeight": 0, "currentSeasonOnly": true }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476434", "goalieName": "John Gibson", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8484154", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476434", "goalieName": "John Gibson", "opponent": "CGY", "games": 5, "availableGames": 25, "shotsAgainst": 152.0, "goalsAgainst": 14.0, "savePct": 0.9078947368421053, "gaa": 2.9964328180737216, "gsax": 0.16800000000000015, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021063", "date": "20260316", "goalieTeam": "DET", "opponent": "CGY", "shotsAgainst": 27.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3589.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.703 }, { "gameId": "2025020477", "date": "20251210", "goalieTeam": "DET", "opponent": "CGY", "shotsAgainst": 37.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.965 }, { "gameId": "2024021203", "date": "20250403", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "CGY", "shotsAgainst": 26.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 2381.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.555 }, { "gameId": "2024020818", "date": "20250130", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "CGY", "shotsAgainst": 29.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3525.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.091 }, { "gameId": "2024020648", "date": "20250107", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "CGY", "shotsAgainst": 33.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3725.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.854 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.0616707974923458, "adjustedSOG": 1.0616707974923458, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.0616707974923458, "adjustedSOG": 1.0616707974923458, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.12238377740506688, "goalHistoryGoals": 0.0, "goalHistoryShots": 5.0, "goalExpected": 0.1299312825577631, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.1299312825577631, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.12184422653411696, "goalProbability": 0.12184422653411696, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12850296627532024, "modelSOG": 1.0616707974923458, "historyGames": 5, "seasonGames": { "2026": 5 }, "historyGoals": 0.0, "historyShots": 5.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.0, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.12238377740506688, "goalieFactor": 1.0182492009293351, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": 43.843023255813954, "btb": { "id": "8484154", "name": "Jonathan Castagna", "score": 43.843023255813954, "components": { "Goal model": 46.51162790697674, "SOG model": 33.48837209302326, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 51.16279069767442, "Goalie": 2.5, "Team H2H": 50.0, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Team H2H unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 0, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 293 } }, { "id": "8476854", "name": "Hampus Lindholm", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "position": "D", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 0.9, "priorSOG": 1.492537313432836, "currentTOI": 20.668333333333333, "currentFiveTOI": 16.755000000000003, "ppShare": 0.2436141822340831, "rate": 1.5224278334425336, "fifty": 1.358335055100607, "inputs": { "Player": "Hampus Lindholm", "Player_ID": "8476854", "Team": "BOS", "Opponent": "SJS", "Position": "D", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.4771376049111251, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.3080234602150047, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 10, "Prior_GP": 67, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.864816472694718, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.8912491930762187, "Current_PP_SOG60": 5.633802816901408, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 11.47511953249513, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 16.69947014925373, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 16.755000000000003, "Current_PP_Share": 0.2436141822340831, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.32036293787399567, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 639.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2623.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 6, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.950833333333334, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 1.3200843031914198, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 1.2060932138772398, "Other_State_SOG": 0.1208955223880597, "Environment_Proxy": 1.0796680236682055, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.492537313432836, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/boston-bruins/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:47.859386+00:00", "priorGP": 67, "currentTotalSOG": 9.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.065, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.90 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.5790000000000001, "currentIXG": 0.05790000000000001, "priorTOI": 21.62313432835821, "priorPPTOI": 1.404726368159204, "deploymentChange": -0.9548009950248755, "ppTOIChange": -0.339726368159204, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2026020105", "date": "20261013", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 22.566666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025021027", "date": "20260312", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 20.083333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2025020351", "date": "20251123", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 27.35 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 3, "h2hSOG": 3.3333333333333335, "opponentDefense": { "team": "SJS", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 286.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 28.6, "mostAllowedRank": 10, "fiveSogAllowed60": 25.210423540502322, "pkSogAllowed60": 49.90958408679928, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 47.8, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 86.0, "C": 94.0, "R": 53.0, "L": 53.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.4, "L": 5.3, "R": 5.3, "D": 8.6 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 30.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 29.833333333333332, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 28.6, "oppPosSogAllowed": 8.6, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8477968", "team": "SJS", "name": "Alex Nedeljkovic", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 4, "savePct": 0.9173553719008265, "gaa": 2.372479240806643, "gsax": 4.638, "goalsAllowed": 10.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 14.638, "shotsAgainst": 121.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9618500831522029, "factor": 0.9618500831522029, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T16:06:01.887Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.06051502276360498, "goalHistoryGoals": 9.0, "goalHistoryShots": 144.0, "goalExpected": 0.05957391746984917, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.0573011774720769, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.057834111501388744, "goalProbability": 0.05569037825067001, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.21437332507187323, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 0.9844484022185346, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.864816472694718, "Current_PP_SOG60": 5.633802816901408, "Current_5v5_Min": 16.755000000000003, "Current_PP_Share": 0.2436141822340831, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.950833333333334, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.2060932138772398, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9930883597207428, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0259958714356598, "Position_Factor": 1.0143476407933703, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 639.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2623.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.8912491930762187, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 11.47511953249513, "Prior_5v5_Min": 16.56990049751244, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.32036293787399567, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.085320284697509, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.34640522875817, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.085320284697509, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0259958714356598, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 2.864816472694718, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 5.633802816901408, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 3.5 }, { "season": "2026", "label": "2026–27", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 3.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2026020105", "date": "20261013", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 22.566666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025021027", "date": "20260312", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 20.083333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2025020351", "date": "20251123", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 27.35 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 106, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 30, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477968", "goalieName": "Alex Nedeljkovic", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8476854", "goals": 0, "sog": 11, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 6, "recordedAttempts": 17, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021027", "date": "20260312", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 5, "attempts": 6 }, { "gameId": "2023021279", "date": "20240413", "season": 2023, "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2023021012", "date": "20240309", "season": 2023, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 3 }, { "gameId": "2023020589", "date": "20240104", "season": 2023, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2 }, { "gameId": "2021021115", "date": "20220405", "season": 2021, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 3 }, { "gameId": "2021020792", "date": "20220131", "season": 2021, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477968", "goalieName": "Alex Nedeljkovic", "opponent": "BOS", "games": 5, "availableGames": 8, "shotsAgainst": 134.0, "goalsAgainst": 17.0, "savePct": 0.8731343283582089, "gaa": 3.7850207186591627, "gsax": -3.2609999999999997, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021027", "date": "20260312", "goalieTeam": "SJS", "opponent": "BOS", "shotsAgainst": 41.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.661 }, { "gameId": "2024020952", "date": "20250301", "goalieTeam": "PIT", "opponent": "BOS", "shotsAgainst": 25.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3474.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.566 }, { "gameId": "2023021279", "date": "20240413", "goalieTeam": "PIT", "opponent": "BOS", "shotsAgainst": 16.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 1895.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.22 }, { "gameId": "2023021012", "date": "20240309", "goalieTeam": "PIT", "opponent": "BOS", "shotsAgainst": 23.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.955 }, { "gameId": "2023020589", "date": "20240104", "goalieTeam": "PIT", "opponent": "BOS", "shotsAgainst": 29.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.337 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.9844484022185346, "adjustedSOG": 0.9844484022185346, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.9844484022185346, "adjustedSOG": 0.9844484022185346, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.06051502276360498, "goalHistoryGoals": 9.0, "goalHistoryShots": 144.0, "goalExpected": 0.05957391746984917, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.05957391746984917, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.057834111501388744, "goalProbability": 0.057834111501388744, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05765665554319614, "modelSOG": 0.9844484022185346, "historyGames": 94, "seasonGames": { "2024": 17, "2025": 67, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 9.0, "historyShots": 144.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.0625, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.06051502276360498, "goalieFactor": 0.9618500831522029, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 44.057150739576244, "btb": { "id": "8476854", "name": "Hampus Lindholm", "score": 44.057150739576244, "components": { "Goal model": 19.767441860465116, "SOG model": 27.209302325581394, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 11.627906976744185, "Goalie": 97.5, "Team H2H": 57.62201245229966, "Goalie H2H": 41.87104685684781 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 3, "goalieH2HShots": 11, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 287 } }, { "id": "8482165", "name": "Yan Kuznetsov", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "DET", "position": "D", "currentGP": 7, "currentSOG": 1.4285714285714286, "priorSOG": 1.1228070175438596, "currentTOI": 18.159523809523808, "currentFiveTOI": 15.838095238095237, "ppShare": 0.0061823802163833074, "rate": 1.0865460625395567, "fifty": 1.1254051554929794, "inputs": { "Player": "Yan Kuznetsov", "Player_ID": "8482165", "Team": "CGY", "Opponent": "DET", "Position": "D", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.1067339202238742, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.2543264006518149, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 7, "Prior_GP": 57, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.329524954900782, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.5821489576941574, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 16.376052631578947, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 15.838095238095237, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0061823802163833074, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.014906931098051135, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 8.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1294.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 4, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.265740740740741, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.03753743280595463, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.02637243116377583, "Other_State_SOG": 0.09172932330827067, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9911254066849144, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.1228070175438596, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:47.879055+00:00", "priorGP": 57, "currentTotalSOG": 10.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.019047619047619046, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.43 SOG/game in 7 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 7 games. 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MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020477", "date": "20251210", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "DET", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 20.683333333333334 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Reviewed October22 projected lineup and coach reports", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 76, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. 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Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476434", "goalieName": "John Gibson", "opponent": "CGY", "games": 5, "availableGames": 25, "shotsAgainst": 152.0, "goalsAgainst": 14.0, "savePct": 0.9078947368421053, "gaa": 2.9964328180737216, "gsax": 0.16800000000000015, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021063", "date": "20260316", "goalieTeam": "DET", "opponent": "CGY", "shotsAgainst": 27.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3589.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.703 }, { "gameId": "2025020477", "date": "20251210", "goalieTeam": "DET", "opponent": "CGY", "shotsAgainst": 37.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.965 }, { "gameId": "2024021203", "date": "20250403", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "CGY", "shotsAgainst": 26.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 2381.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.555 }, { "gameId": "2024020818", "date": "20250130", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "CGY", "shotsAgainst": 29.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3525.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.091 }, { "gameId": "2024020648", "date": "20250107", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "CGY", "shotsAgainst": 33.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3725.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.854 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.4849222700880311, "adjustedSOG": 1.4849222700880311, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.4849222700880311, "adjustedSOG": 1.4849222700880311, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.05613733321206686, "goalHistoryGoals": 4.0, "goalHistoryShots": 74.0, "goalExpected": 0.08335957626995055, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.08335957626995055, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.07997972972112419, "goalProbability": 0.07997972972112419, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05767895978899634, "modelSOG": 1.4849222700880311, "historyGames": 64, "seasonGames": { "2025": 57, "2026": 7 }, "historyGoals": 4.0, "historyShots": 74.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.05405405405405406, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.05613733321206686, "goalieFactor": 1.0182492009293351, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 37.6408003466568, "btb": { "id": "8482165", "name": "Yan Kuznetsov", "score": 37.6408003466568, "components": { "Goal model": 30.0, "SOG model": 56.51162790697674, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 12.325581395348838, "Goalie": 2.5, "Team H2H": 48.88440541182055, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 1, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 380 } }, { "id": "8477511", "name": "Anthony Mantha", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "LAK", "position": "L", "currentGP": 9, "currentSOG": 1.2222222222222223, "priorSOG": 1.876543209876543, "currentTOI": 13.407407407407408, "currentFiveTOI": 11.911111111111111, "ppShare": 0.2846634792203016, "rate": 1.7176193275738172, "fifty": 1.5301733274192624, "inputs": { "Player": "Anthony Mantha", "Player_ID": "8477511", "Team": "NJD", "Opponent": "LAK", "Position": "R", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.7285414186711592, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.5115721374997797, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 9, "Prior_GP": 81, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.037313432835821, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.667769141723168, "Current_PP_SOG60": 9.30232558139535, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 11.302445057558748, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 12.070493827160494, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 11.911111111111111, "Current_PP_Share": 0.2846634792203016, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.49096420612086666, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 774.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2719.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 4, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.972354497354498, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 1.7231878352971033, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 1.4154477311336455, "Other_State_SOG": 0.07777777777777778, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9908219918860978, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.876543209876543, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-jersey-devils/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:47.900258+00:00", "priorGP": 81, "currentTotalSOG": 11.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.4333333333333333, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.22 SOG/game in 9 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 9 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.462, "currentIXG": 0.16244444444444445, "priorTOI": 15.18724279835391, "priorPPTOI": 2.1627572016460905, "deploymentChange": -1.7798353909465021, "ppTOIChange": -0.7294238683127572, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020245", "date": "20251109", "team": "PIT", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 13.483333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020071", "date": "20251016", "team": "PIT", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 15.833333333333334 } ], "h2hGames": 2, "h2hAvailableGames": 2, "h2hSOG": 2.5, "opponentDefense": { "team": "LAK", "games": 7, "sogAllowedTotal": 193.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.571428571428573, "mostAllowedRank": 14, "fiveSogAllowed60": 25.227874154660395, "pkSogAllowed60": 57.61396702230844, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 39.142857142857146, "positionUnassignedSOG": 1.0, "positionTotals": { "C": 86.0, "D": 47.0, "R": 28.0, "L": 31.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 12.285714285714286, "L": 4.428571428571429, "R": 4.0, "D": 6.714285714285714 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 27.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 29.5, "positionSourceDifference": 1.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.571428571428573, "oppPosSogAllowed": 4.428571428571429, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8476341", "team": "LAK", "name": "Anton Forsberg", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 3, "savePct": 0.8833333333333333, "gaa": 2.6313041662315966, "gsax": -2.1049999999999995, "goalsAllowed": 7.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.8950000000000005, "shotsAgainst": 60.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0218332511814823, "factor": 1.0218332511814823, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T19:00:24.293Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.1828641307706986, "goalHistoryGoals": 38.0, "goalHistoryShots": 178.0, "goalExpected": 0.21702037127086823, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.22175863154832365, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.19508642797441592, "goalProbability": 0.19889129663189462, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.38048686574786994, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 9, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.1867848022256462, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.037313432835821, "Current_PP_SOG60": 9.30232558139535, "Current_5v5_Min": 11.911111111111111, "Current_PP_Share": 0.2846634792203016, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.972354497354498, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.4154477311336455, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9946407827573338, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.085978140946376, "Position_Factor": 0.9860189907303214, "Input_GP": 9, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 774.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2719.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.667769141723168, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 11.302445057558748, "Prior_5v5_Min": 12.442386831275721, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.49096420612086666, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9484677021228117, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.062091503267974, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9484677021228117, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.085978140946376, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.037313432835821, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 9.30232558139535, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020245", "date": "20251109", "team": "PIT", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 13.483333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020071", "date": "20251016", "team": "PIT", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 15.833333333333334 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 157, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 39, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476341", "goalieName": "Anton Forsberg", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8477511", "goals": 1, "sog": 8, "shootingPct": 0.125, "gamesWithAttempts": 3, "recordedAttempts": 9, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020071", "date": "20251016", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 3 }, { "gameId": "2023020923", "date": "20240226", "season": 2023, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2 }, { "gameId": "2022020065", "date": "20221020", "season": 2022, "goals": 1, "sog": 4, "attempts": 4 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476341", "goalieName": "Anton Forsberg", "opponent": "NJD", "games": 5, "availableGames": 11, "shotsAgainst": 115.0, "goalsAgainst": 15.0, "savePct": 0.8695652173913043, "gaa": 4.18280402788536, "gsax": -4.362, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021050", "date": "20260314", "goalieTeam": "LAK", "opponent": "NJD", "shotsAgainst": 27.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3466.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.948 }, { "gameId": "2024020737", "date": "20250119", "goalieTeam": "OTT", "opponent": "NJD", "shotsAgainst": 26.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.295 }, { "gameId": "2024020062", "date": "20241017", "goalieTeam": "OTT", "opponent": "NJD", "shotsAgainst": 35.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3470.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.298 }, { "gameId": "2023021224", "date": "20240406", "goalieTeam": "OTT", "opponent": "NJD", "shotsAgainst": 9.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 994.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 0.874 }, { "gameId": "2022020274", "date": "20221119", "goalieTeam": "OTT", "opponent": "NJD", "shotsAgainst": 18.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 1380.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.223 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.1867848022256462, "adjustedSOG": 1.1867848022256462, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.1867848022256462, "adjustedSOG": 1.1867848022256462, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.1828641307706986, "goalHistoryGoals": 38.0, "goalHistoryShots": 178.0, "goalExpected": 0.21702037127086823, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.21702037127086823, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.19508642797441592, "goalProbability": 0.19508642797441592, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1283622835425421, "modelSOG": 1.1867848022256462, "historyGames": 103, "seasonGames": { "2024": 13, "2025": 81, "2026": 9 }, "historyGoals": 38.0, "historyShots": 178.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.21348314606741572, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.1828641307706986, "goalieFactor": 1.0218332511814823, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 57.350027028662346, "btb": { "id": "8477511", "name": "Anthony Mantha", "score": 57.350027028662346, "components": { "Goal model": 71.16279069767442, "SOG model": 40.0, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 52.093023255813954, "Goalie": 76.61764705882354, "Team H2H": 55.374238468233244, "Goalie H2H": 49.402660874287264 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 2, "goalieH2HShots": 8, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 118 } }, { "id": "8479675", "name": "Trevor Moore", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "NJD", "position": "L", "currentGP": 7, "currentSOG": 2.0, "priorSOG": 2.3043478260869565, "currentTOI": 16.761904761904763, "currentFiveTOI": 13.823809523809524, "ppShare": 0.13045738045738045, "rate": 2.1489713521237763, "fifty": 2.0715785538804763, "inputs": { "Player": "Trevor Moore", "Player_ID": "8479675", "Team": "LAK", "Opponent": "NJD", "Position": "L", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.927445535874377, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.8075630916210872, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 7, "Prior_GP": 69, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 7.440578711677575, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 7.993705743509048, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 10.094637223974763, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 13.821231884057969, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 13.823809523809524, "Current_PP_Share": 0.13045738045738045, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.16169056230711876, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 251.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1924.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 4, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.575661375661376, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.6398025360774535, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.596928796928797, "Other_State_SOG": 0.34161490683229817, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9357862710703578, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 2.3043478260869565, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/los-angeles-kings/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:47.920262+00:00", "priorGP": 69, "currentTotalSOG": 14.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.5976190476190476, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.00 SOG/game in 7 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 7 games. 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Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8474596", "goalieName": "Jake Allen", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8479675", "goals": 2, "sog": 15, "shootingPct": 0.13333333333333333, "gamesWithAttempts": 5, "recordedAttempts": 19, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021050", "date": "20260314", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 5 }, { "gameId": "2023020309", "date": "20231125", "season": 2023, "goals": 2, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2 }, { "gameId": "2022020439", "date": "20221210", "season": 2022, "goals": 0, "sog": 5, "attempts": 6 }, { "gameId": "2021020183", "date": "20211109", "season": 2021, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2 }, { "gameId": "2021020125", "date": "20211030", "season": 2021, "goals": 0, "sog": 4, "attempts": 4 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8474596", "goalieName": "Jake Allen", "opponent": "LAK", "games": 5, "availableGames": 17, "shotsAgainst": 151.0, "goalsAgainst": 16.0, "savePct": 0.8940397350993378, "gaa": 3.2597623089983023, "gsax": 1.5839999999999996, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021050", "date": "20260314", "goalieTeam": "NJD", "opponent": "LAK", "shotsAgainst": 31.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.558 }, { "gameId": "2024020602", "date": "20250101", "goalieTeam": "NJD", "opponent": "LAK", "shotsAgainst": 23.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3431.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.828 }, { "gameId": "2023020309", "date": "20231125", "goalieTeam": "MTL", "opponent": "LAK", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.339 }, { "gameId": "2022020982", "date": "20230302", "goalieTeam": "MTL", "opponent": "LAK", "shotsAgainst": 33.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3509.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.849 }, { "gameId": "2022020439", "date": "20221210", "goalieTeam": "MTL", "opponent": "LAK", "shotsAgainst": 34.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3530.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.01 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.8803696782304373, "adjustedSOG": 1.8803696782304373, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.9187445696228953, "adjustedSOG": 1.8803696782304373, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.10530178267533874, "goalHistoryGoals": 32.0, "goalHistoryShots": 326.0, "goalExpected": 0.20204722367991648, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.20204722367991648, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.18294365737602436, "goalProbability": 0.18294365737602436, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12858559419694304, "modelSOG": 1.8803696782304373, "historyGames": 147, "seasonGames": { "2024": 71, "2025": 69, "2026": 7 }, "historyGoals": 32.0, "historyShots": 326.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.09815950920245399, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.10530178267533874, "goalieFactor": 1.0365218981504722, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 54.5222887380269, "btb": { "id": "8479675", "name": "Trevor Moore", "score": 54.5222887380269, "components": { "Goal model": 66.97674418604652, "SOG model": 71.62790697674419, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 43.48837209302326, "Goalie": 55.44117647058823, "Team H2H": 46.595701948182366, "Goalie H2H": 56.63234403391884 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 3, "goalieH2HShots": 15, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 153 } }, { "id": "8475842", "name": "Sam Carrick", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "WSH", "position": "C", "currentGP": 4, "currentSOG": 0.25, "priorSOG": 1.0273972602739727, "currentTOI": 7.383333333333334, "currentFiveTOI": 7.258333333333334, "ppShare": 0.0081799591002045, "rate": 0.9086026995495347, "fifty": 0.6807292951951462, "inputs": { "Player": "Sam Carrick", "Player_ID": "8475842", "Team": "BUF", "Opponent": "WSH", "Position": "C", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 0.90857753356846, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 0.7148905202313225, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 4, "Prior_GP": 73, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.0665901262916186, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.960264900662252, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 7.89398401826484, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 7.258333333333334, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0081799591002045, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.002334128997515413, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 8.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 978.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 3, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.493148148148148, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.035300123942323354, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.044933727183215935, "Other_State_SOG": 0.08630136986301369, "Environment_Proxy": 1.0834850655013406, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.0273972602739727, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/buffalo-sabres/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:47.941871+00:00", "priorGP": 73, "currentTotalSOG": 1.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.03333333333333333, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.25 SOG/game in 4 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 4 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.07400000000000001, "currentIXG": 0.018500000000000003, "priorTOI": 10.470319634703197, "priorPPTOI": 0.011187214611872146, "deploymentChange": -3.086986301369863, "ppTOIChange": 0.02214611872146119, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021028", "date": "20260312", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 10.85 }, { "gameId": "2025020622", "date": "20251231", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 11.3 }, { "gameId": "2025020576", "date": "20251223", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 9.766666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020038", "date": "20251012", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 14.233333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020983", "date": "20250305", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 11.416666666666666 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 7, "h2hSOG": 1.4, "opponentDefense": { "team": "WSH", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 263.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 29.22222222222222, "mostAllowedRank": 7, "fiveSogAllowed60": 28.540383918869974, "pkSogAllowed60": 52.820345614607106, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.111111111111114, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "L": 48.0, "D": 68.0, "C": 72.0, "R": 75.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 8.0, "L": 5.333333333333333, "R": 8.333333333333334, "D": 7.555555555555555 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 29.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27.5, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 29.22222222222222, "oppPosSogAllowed": 8.0, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8479292", "team": "WSH", "name": "Charlie Lindgren", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 2, "savePct": 0.896551724137931, "gaa": 3.061224489795918, "gsax": 0.2989999999999995, "goalsAllowed": 6.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 6.2989999999999995, "shotsAgainst": 58.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.99868053226692, "factor": 0.99868053226692, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T14:45:41.433Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.10713339796938502, "goalHistoryGoals": 15.0, "goalHistoryShots": 160.0, "goalExpected": 0.02435344094560515, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.024321307366087955, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.024059288614661355, "goalProbability": 0.024027927642340532, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.003136097232082219, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 4, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 0.2273188511444817, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.0665901262916186, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 7.258333333333334, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0081799591002045, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.493148148148148, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.044933727183215935, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.053751909733539, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0558974457897532, "Position_Factor": 0.975132863651709, "Input_GP": 4, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 8.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 978.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.960264900662252, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 9.37716894977169, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.002334128997515413, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9278320454876804, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.437908496732026, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9278320454876804, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0558974457897532, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 2.0665901262916186, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 0.6666666666666666 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 4, "sogPerGame": 1.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021028", "date": "20260312", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 10.85 }, { "gameId": "2025020622", "date": "20251231", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 11.3 }, { "gameId": "2025020576", "date": "20251223", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 9.766666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020038", "date": "20251012", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 14.233333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020983", "date": "20250305", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 11.416666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020620", "date": "20250104", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 9.416666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020151", "date": "20241029", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 8.383333333333333 } ], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff latest reported chart; October 21 final lineup pending", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 111, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479292", "goalieName": "Charlie Lindgren", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8475842", "goals": 2, "sog": 8, "shootingPct": 0.25, "gamesWithAttempts": 5, "recordedAttempts": 12, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021028", "date": "20260312", "season": 2025, "goals": 1, "sog": 2, "attempts": 3 }, { "gameId": "2025020622", "date": "20251231", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2 }, { "gameId": "2025020038", "date": "20251012", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 4 }, { "gameId": "2024020983", "date": "20250305", "season": 2024, "goals": 1, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2 }, { "gameId": "2022020920", "date": "20230223", "season": 2022, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479292", "goalieName": "Charlie Lindgren", "opponent": "BUF", "games": 5, "availableGames": 8, "shotsAgainst": 128.0, "goalsAgainst": 16.0, "savePct": 0.875, "gaa": 3.275891486094523, "gsax": -2.283, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021028", "date": "20260312", "goalieTeam": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.161 }, { "gameId": "2025020186", "date": "20251101", "goalieTeam": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3892.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.677 }, { "gameId": "2024020637", "date": "20250106", "goalieTeam": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "shotsAgainst": 27.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3900.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.647 }, { "gameId": "2023021255", "date": "20240411", "goalieTeam": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "shotsAgainst": 16.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3458.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.149 }, { "gameId": "2023021189", "date": "20240402", "goalieTeam": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "shotsAgainst": 31.0, "goalsAgainst": 6.0, "seconds": 2733.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.083 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.2273188511444817, "adjustedSOG": 0.2273188511444817, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.2319580113719201, "adjustedSOG": 0.2273188511444817, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.10713339796938502, "goalHistoryGoals": 15.0, "goalHistoryShots": 160.0, "goalExpected": 0.024850449944495052, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.02481766057764077, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.02454421941313532, "goalProbability": 0.024512234311312775, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.0031985101822545187 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12854683472040104, "modelSOG": 0.2273188511444817, "historyGames": 157, "seasonGames": { "2024": 80, "2025": 73, "2026": 4 }, "historyGoals": 15.0, "historyShots": 160.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.09375, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.10713339796938502, "goalieFactor": 0.99868053226692, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8483491", "name": "Ivan Miroshnichenko", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "position": "L", "currentGP": 3, "currentSOG": 0.3333333333333333, "priorSOG": 0.9230769230769231, "currentTOI": 11.049999999999999, "currentFiveTOI": 9.827777777777778, "ppShare": 0.20734126984126985, "rate": 1.0049777706162335, "fifty": 0.7626156299408287, "inputs": { "Player": "Ivan Miroshnichenko", "Player_ID": "8483491", "Team": "WSH", "Opponent": "BUF", "Position": "R", "Current_GP": 3, "Prior_GP": 13, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 0.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.746973526672875, "Current_PP_SOG60": 17.22488038277512, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 21.686746987951807, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 9.77059829059829, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 9.827777777777778, "Current_PP_Share": 0.20734126984126985, "Prior_PP_Share": 0, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 209.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1008.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 2, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Measured game-matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Historical skater-team PP minute approximation, existing hybrid method", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.500555555555556, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.6532056327160495, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.9331509038800706, "Other_State_SOG": 0.0, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9496227273390297, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 0.9230769230769231, "Status": "Historical input object restored from saved prior summaries", "Availability_Note": "Conditional on dressing", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.0720089363668854, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 0.8679255198154445 }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:47.962432+00:00", "priorGP": 13, "currentTotalSOG": 1.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.1611111111111112, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.33 SOG/game in 3 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 3 games. 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Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480045", "goalieName": "Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8483491", "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 2, "recordedAttempts": 4, "log": [ { "gameId": "2024020480", "date": "20241214", "season": 2024, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 3 }, { "gameId": "2023021189", "date": "20240402", "season": 2023, "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 1 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480045", "goalieName": "Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen", "opponent": "WSH", "games": 5, "availableGames": 10, "shotsAgainst": 138.0, "goalsAgainst": 13.0, "savePct": 0.9057971014492754, "gaa": 2.5547246028713357, "gsax": 1.2270000000000003, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021028", "date": "20260312", "goalieTeam": "BUF", "opponent": "WSH", "shotsAgainst": 22.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3513.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.736 }, { "gameId": "2025020186", "date": "20251101", "goalieTeam": "BUF", "opponent": "WSH", "shotsAgainst": 34.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3868.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.692 }, { "gameId": "2024020637", "date": "20250106", "goalieTeam": "BUF", "opponent": "WSH", "shotsAgainst": 28.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3900.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.29 }, { "gameId": "2024020480", "date": "20241214", "goalieTeam": "BUF", "opponent": "WSH", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3438.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.234 }, { "gameId": "2023021255", "date": "20240411", "goalieTeam": "BUF", "opponent": "WSH", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.275 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.3061785878131445, "adjustedSOG": 0.3061785878131445, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.3061785878131445, "adjustedSOG": 0.3061785878131445, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.1326712724701287, "goalHistoryGoals": 4.0, "goalHistoryShots": 27.0, "goalExpected": 0.04062110284827692, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.04206107636763704, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.039807124622020996, "goalProbability": 0.0411887819223393, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.13816573003183064 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12849251603706344, "modelSOG": 0.3061785878131445, "historyGames": 34, "seasonGames": { "2024": 18, "2025": 13, "2026": 3 }, "historyGoals": 4.0, "historyShots": 27.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.14814814814814814, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.1326712724701287, "goalieFactor": 1.035448902624297, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": 36.48831906548939, "btb": { "id": "8483491", "name": "Ivan Miroshnichenko", "score": 36.48831906548939, "components": { "Goal model": 10.69767441860465, "SOG model": 3.0232558139534884, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 56.51162790697674, "Goalie": 7.794117647058823, "Team H2H": 51.62591977213387, "Goalie H2H": 50.23158869847151 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 1, "goalieH2HShots": 1, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 390 } }, { "id": "8482877", "name": "Jaroslav Chmelar", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "OTT", "position": "R", "currentGP": 7, "currentSOG": 0.42857142857142855, "priorSOG": 0.8214285714285714, "currentTOI": 8.245238095238095, "currentFiveTOI": 8.1, "ppShare": 0.02042850024912805, "rate": 0.7153637580734157, "fifty": 0.5931346300831457, "inputs": { "Player": "Jaroslav Chmelar", "Player_ID": "8482877", "Team": "NYR", "Opponent": "OTT", "Position": "R", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 0.6872284236261574, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 0.5950012131779858, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 7, "Prior_GP": 28, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.1746031746031744, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.204705263849642, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 29.75206611570248, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 8.387321428571427, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 8.1, "Current_PP_Share": 0.02042850024912805, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.019656586244114115, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 41.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2007.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 6, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.145909090909091, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.10393154535688628, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.10512320514562667, "Other_State_SOG": 0.0, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9343896732646498, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 0.8214285714285714, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-york-rangers/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:47.982482+00:00", "priorGP": 28, "currentTotalSOG": 3.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.09761904761904762, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.43 SOG/game in 7 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 7 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.417, "currentIXG": 0.05957142857142857, "priorTOI": 9.151190476190477, "priorPPTOI": 0.07202380952380952, "deploymentChange": -0.9059523809523817, "ppTOIChange": 0.0255952380952381, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021119", "date": "20260323", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 8.466666666666667 } ], "h2hGames": 1, "h2hAvailableGames": 1, "h2hSOG": 0.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "OTT", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 255.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 25.5, "mostAllowedRank": 25, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.477120373069077, "pkSogAllowed60": 46.82395644283122, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 38.7, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 67.0, "C": 98.0, "R": 48.0, "L": 42.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.8, "L": 4.2, "R": 4.8, "D": 6.7 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 24.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 22.6, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 25.5, "oppPosSogAllowed": 4.8, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8477992", "team": "OTT", "name": "Jonas Johansson", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 0, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "goalsAllowed": null, "xGoalsAgainst": null, "shotsAgainst": null, "scenarioFactor": 1, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; no matching goalie statistics in this snapshot, so the goalie factor remains neutral.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T15:15:50.280Z", "idResolution": "Exact goalie name mapped to one unique MoneyPuck player ID" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.13372331051254085, "goalHistoryGoals": 4.0, "goalHistoryShots": 26.0, "goalExpected": 0.05312542142558877, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.05312542142558877, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.05173892723191707, "goalProbability": 0.05173892723191707, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 7, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 0.39727868852459014, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.1746031746031744, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 8.1, "Current_PP_Share": 0.02042850024912805, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.145909090909091, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.10512320514562667, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9604171757553249, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9920036605974645, "Position_Factor": 0.9940613950498232, "Input_GP": 7, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 41.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2007.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.204705263849642, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 29.75206611570248, "Prior_5v5_Min": 9.057738095238095, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.019656586244114115, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9459016393442623, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.382352941176471, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9459016393442623, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9920036605974645, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 3.1746031746031744, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 0.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021119", "date": "20260323", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 8.466666666666667 } ], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 28, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477992", "goalieName": "Jonas Johansson", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8482877", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477992", "goalieName": "Jonas Johansson", "opponent": "NYR", "games": 4, "availableGames": 4, "shotsAgainst": 43.0, "goalsAgainst": 6.0, "savePct": 0.8604651162790697, "gaa": 2.615328732292045, "gsax": -1.567, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020391", "date": "20251129", "goalieTeam": "TBL", "opponent": "NYR", "shotsAgainst": 13.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.688 }, { "gameId": "2025020265", "date": "20251112", "goalieTeam": "TBL", "opponent": "NYR", "shotsAgainst": 7.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 993.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 0.748 }, { "gameId": "2024021310", "date": "20250417", "goalieTeam": "TBL", "opponent": "NYR", "shotsAgainst": 22.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3573.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.983 }, { "gameId": "2021020399", "date": "20211208", "goalieTeam": "COL", "opponent": "NYR", "shotsAgainst": 1.0, "goalsAgainst": 0.0, "seconds": 93.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 0.014 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.39727868852459014, "adjustedSOG": 0.39727868852459014, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.4053864168618267, "adjustedSOG": 0.39727868852459014, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.13372331051254085, "goalHistoryGoals": 4.0, "goalHistoryShots": 26.0, "goalExpected": 0.054209613699580377, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.054209613699580377, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.05276646743451098, "goalProbability": 0.05276646743451098, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12849137124580146, "modelSOG": 0.39727868852459014, "historyGames": 35, "seasonGames": { "2025": 28, "2026": 7 }, "historyGoals": 4.0, "historyShots": 26.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.15384615384615385, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.13372331051254085, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8476887", "name": "Filip Forsberg", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "PIT", "position": "L", "currentGP": 8, "currentSOG": 3.0, "priorSOG": 3, "currentTOI": 21.145833333333332, "currentFiveTOI": 15.841666666666667, "ppShare": 0.7485800833017796, "rate": 3.2470714792005575, "fifty": 3.2317632139178922, "inputs": { "Player": "Filip Forsberg", "Player_ID": "8476887", "Team": "NSH", "Opponent": "PIT", "Position": "L", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 2.677893657711193, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 2.313806490116953, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 8, "Prior_GP": 82, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 8.521830615465545, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 8.375089477451683, "Current_PP_SOG60": 9.104704097116844, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 12.832394667427105, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 15.518678861788617, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 15.841666666666667, "Current_PP_Share": 0.7485800833017796, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.7060523083737694, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1977.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2641.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 5, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.906041666666667, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 3.609972168779103, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 3.6725650795153353, "Other_State_SOG": 0.29786585365853663, "Environment_Proxy": 1.0227478110844896, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 3, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/nashville-predators/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:48.004857+00:00", "priorGP": 82, "currentTotalSOG": 24.0, "currentPPTOI": 4.11875, "volumeNote": "Observed 3.00 SOG/game in 8 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 8 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 2.419, "currentIXG": 0.302375, "priorTOI": 18.88678861788618, "priorPPTOI": 2.8510162601626017, "deploymentChange": 2.2590447154471534, "ppTOIChange": 1.2677337398373987, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020296", "date": "20251116", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "PIT", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 20.7 }, { "gameId": "2025020281", "date": "20251114", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "PIT", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 8.0, "toi": 19.4 }, { "gameId": "2024020830", "date": "20250201", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "PIT", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 16.866666666666667 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 2.3333333333333335, "opponentDefense": { "team": "PIT", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 279.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.9, "mostAllowedRank": 12, "fiveSogAllowed60": 26.122338261223383, "pkSogAllowed60": 50.11600928074246, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 42.4, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 55.0, "L": 47.0, "D": 70.0, "C": 107.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.7, "L": 4.7, "R": 5.5, "D": 7.0 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 25.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 3, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 28.333333333333332, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.9, "oppPosSogAllowed": 4.7, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8481668", "team": "PIT", "name": "Arturs Silovs", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 6, "savePct": 0.8662420382165605, "gaa": 3.5131744040150563, "gsax": -1.0760000000000005, "goalsAllowed": 21.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 19.924, "shotsAgainst": 157.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0136052553954562, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Likely starter per Daily Faceoff; no Model Goal adjustment until confirmed.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T15:01:09.604Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.13033587087380172, "goalHistoryGoals": 72.0, "goalHistoryShots": 551.0, "goalExpected": 0.36603432057214463, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.36603432057214463, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.30652099979473124, "goalProbability": 0.30652099979473124, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 8, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 2.808392794080142, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 8.521830615465545, "Current_PP_SOG60": 9.104704097116844, "Current_5v5_Min": 15.841666666666667, "Current_PP_Share": 0.7485800833017796, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.906041666666667, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 3.6725650795153353, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.125, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.011083778612368, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0249142728068137, "Position_Factor": 0.9882936962452362, "Input_GP": 8, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1977.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2641.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 8.375089477451683, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 12.832394667427105, "Prior_5v5_Min": 14.765040650406505, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.7060523083737694, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9642349903163332, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.062091503267974, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9642349903163332, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0249142728068137, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 8.521830615465545, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 9.104704097116844, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020296", "date": "20251116", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "PIT", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 20.7 }, { "gameId": "2025020281", "date": "20251114", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "PIT", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 8.0, "toi": 19.4 }, { "gameId": "2024020830", "date": "20250201", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "PIT", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 16.866666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020515", "date": "20241219", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "PIT", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 17.95 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 268, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 77, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481668", "goalieName": "Arturs Silovs", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8476887", "goals": 1, "sog": 3, "shootingPct": 0.3333333333333333, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 5, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020281", "date": "20251114", "season": 2025, "goals": 1, "sog": 3, "attempts": 5 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481668", "goalieName": "Arturs Silovs", "opponent": "NSH", "games": 2, "availableGames": 2, "shotsAgainst": 62.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "savePct": 0.9193548387096774, "gaa": 2.397123451857771, "gsax": 1.6559999999999997, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020281", "date": "20251114", "goalieTeam": "PIT", "opponent": "NSH", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3644.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.231 }, { "gameId": "2022021010", "date": "20230306", "goalieTeam": "VAN", "opponent": "NSH", "shotsAgainst": 32.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3865.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.425 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 2.808392794080142, "adjustedSOG": 2.808392794080142, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 2.865706932734839, "adjustedSOG": 2.808392794080142, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.13033587087380172, "goalHistoryGoals": 72.0, "goalHistoryShots": 551.0, "goalExpected": 0.37350440874708635, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.37350440874708635, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.3116820483301108, "goalProbability": 0.3116820483301108, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1284865193884493, "modelSOG": 2.808392794080142, "historyGames": 172, "seasonGames": { "2024": 82, "2025": 82, "2026": 8 }, "historyGoals": 72.0, "historyShots": 551.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.1306715063520871, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.13033587087380172, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 63.171412957678065, "btb": { "id": "8476887", "name": "Filip Forsberg", "score": 63.171412957678065, "components": { "Goal model": 92.32558139534883, "SOG model": 92.32558139534883, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 82.55813953488372, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 45.56135770234987, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Likely", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": 3, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 50 } }, { "id": "8477446", "name": "Michael McCarron", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "SEA", "position": "C", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 1.7, "priorSOG": 1.379746835443038, "currentTOI": 13.671666666666667, "currentFiveTOI": 10.403333333333332, "ppShare": 0.0008237232289950577, "rate": 1.5225464187429871, "fifty": 1.5751145520474936, "inputs": { "Player": "Michael McCarron", "Player_ID": "8477446", "Team": "MIN", "Opponent": "SEA", "Position": "C", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.5031599520268102, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.6316480732255025, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 10, "Prior_GP": 79, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 8.074335148990707, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.818814878089543, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 10.690624472573838, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 10.403333333333332, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0008237232289950577, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.01579413690820139, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2428.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 5, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 3.9491666666666667, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.020989217924946017, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.003253020318506315, "Other_State_SOG": 0.10974683544303798, "Environment_Proxy": 1.1489692159321772, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.379746835443038, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/minnesota-wild/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:48.028355+00:00", "priorGP": 79, "currentTotalSOG": 17.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.003333333333333333, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.70 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.58, "currentIXG": 0.057999999999999996, "priorTOI": 14.031434599156118, "priorPPTOI": 0.08333333333333333, "deploymentChange": -0.3597679324894507, "ppTOIChange": -0.08, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021240", "date": "20260407", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 14.366666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020638", "date": "20260101", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 14.4 }, { "gameId": "2024020993", "date": "20250306", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 15.333333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020304", "date": "20241120", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 15.666666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020053", "date": "20241015", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 10.233333333333333 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 5, "h2hSOG": 2.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "SEA", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 311.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 31.1, "mostAllowedRank": 3, "fiveSogAllowed60": 29.01212141229316, "pkSogAllowed60": 57.63738641280831, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 48.5, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 101.0, "R": 65.0, "L": 58.0, "D": 87.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.1, "L": 5.8, "R": 6.5, "D": 8.7 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 31.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 3, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 28.666666666666668, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 31.1, "oppPosSogAllowed": 10.1, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8478916", "team": "SEA", "name": "Joey Daccord", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 5, "savePct": 0.881578947368421, "gaa": 3.8855909336211547, "gsax": -2.3970000000000002, "goalsAllowed": 18.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 15.603, "shotsAgainst": 152.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.024854248577667, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Likely starter per Daily Faceoff; no Model Goal adjustment until confirmed.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T20:31:39.541Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.08451550634799569, "goalHistoryGoals": 13.0, "goalHistoryShots": 206.0, "goalExpected": 0.1448701013486373, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.1448701013486373, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.13486533436162307, "goalProbability": 0.13486533436162307, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.7141245152354567, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 8.074335148990707, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 10.403333333333332, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0008237232289950577, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 3.9491666666666667, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.003253020318506315, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.3, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0689197555315912, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0920680305430235, "Position_Factor": 0.9921459571037935, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2428.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.818814878089543, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 11.36097046413502, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.01579413690820139, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0350761772853185, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.437908496732026, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0350761772853185, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0920680305430235, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 8.074335148990707, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 1.3333333333333333 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 3.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021240", "date": "20260407", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 14.366666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020638", "date": "20260101", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 14.4 }, { "gameId": "2024020993", "date": "20250306", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 15.333333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020304", "date": "20241120", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 15.666666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020053", "date": "20241015", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 10.233333333333333 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 162, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. 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Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478916", "goalieName": "Joey Daccord", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8477446", "goals": 2, "sog": 6, "shootingPct": 0.3333333333333333, "gamesWithAttempts": 4, "recordedAttempts": 11, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021240", "date": "20260407", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2 }, { "gameId": "2024020993", "date": "20250306", "season": 2024, "goals": 1, "sog": 1, "attempts": 3 }, { "gameId": "2024020304", "date": "20241120", "season": 2024, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 4 }, { "gameId": "2024020053", "date": "20241015", "season": 2024, "goals": 1, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478916", "goalieName": "Joey Daccord", "opponent": "MIN", "games": 5, "availableGames": 6, "shotsAgainst": 123.0, "goalsAgainst": 19.0, "savePct": 0.8455284552845528, "gaa": 4.3387250237868695, "gsax": -6.912000000000001, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021240", "date": "20260407", "goalieTeam": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 28.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3488.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.569 }, { "gameId": "2024020982", "date": "20250304", "goalieTeam": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 20.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3463.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.635 }, { "gameId": "2024020033", "date": "20241012", "goalieTeam": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 38.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3885.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.839 }, { "gameId": "2023021307", "date": "20240418", "goalieTeam": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.121 }, { "gameId": "2023020913", "date": "20240224", "goalieTeam": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 13.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 1329.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.924 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.7141245152354567, "adjustedSOG": 1.7141245152354567, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.7491066481994457, "adjustedSOG": 1.7141245152354567, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.08451550634799569, "goalHistoryGoals": 13.0, "goalHistoryShots": 206.0, "goalExpected": 0.14782663402922172, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.14782663402922172, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.137419355889223, "goalProbability": 0.137419355889223, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1286174494248668, "modelSOG": 1.7141245152354567, "historyGames": 163, "seasonGames": { "2024": 74, "2025": 79, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 13.0, "historyShots": 206.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.06310679611650485, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.08451550634799569, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 49.13325034914081, "btb": { "id": "8477446", "name": "Michael McCarron", "score": 49.13325034914081, "components": { "Goal model": 50.69767441860465, "SOG model": 65.81395348837209, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 11.86046511627907, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 63.44647519582245, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Likely", "h2hGames": 5, "goalieH2HShots": 6, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 210 } }, { "id": "8481161", "name": "Jake Christiansen", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "VGK", "position": "D", "currentGP": 7, "currentSOG": 0.42857142857142855, "priorSOG": 0.65, "currentTOI": 13.228571428571428, "currentFiveTOI": 11.847619047619048, "ppShare": 0.0, "rate": 0.6535142200884206, "fifty": 0.5722538479586112, "inputs": { "Player": "Jake Christiansen", "Player_ID": "8481161", "Team": "CBJ", "Opponent": "VGK", "Position": "D", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 0.5154905703215202, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 0.32563715351805356, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 7, "Prior_GP": 40, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.170418006430868, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.9671102822751547, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 11.242583333333332, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 11.847619047619048, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0, "Prior_PP_Share": 9.619445356857965e-05, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1981.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 3, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.052367424242425, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.00011694458101023378, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.0, "Other_State_SOG": 0.0, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9217353117054976, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 0.65, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:48.049366+00:00", "priorGP": 40, "currentTotalSOG": 3.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.0, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.43 SOG/game in 7 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 7 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.162, "currentIXG": 0.023142857142857142, "priorTOI": 10.04625, "priorPPTOI": 0.00041666666666666664, "deploymentChange": 3.182321428571427, "ppTOIChange": -0.00041666666666666664, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2024021045", "date": "20250313", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 5.45 }, { "gameId": "2024020820", "date": "20250130", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 14.416666666666666 } ], "h2hGames": 2, "h2hAvailableGames": 2, "h2hSOG": 1.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "VGK", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 275.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 25.0, "mostAllowedRank": 27, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.585792714368043, "pkSogAllowed60": 47.03517587939699, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 38.72727272727273, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 59.0, "C": 80.0, "R": 61.0, "L": 75.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.2727272727272725, "L": 6.818181818181818, "R": 5.545454545454546, "D": 5.363636363636363 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 26.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 25.75, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 25.0, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.363636363636363, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8479394", "team": "VGK", "name": "Carter Hart", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.8876404494382022, "gaa": 2.8716148845371516, "gsax": -1.5090000000000003, "goalsAllowed": 20.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 18.491, "shotsAgainst": 178.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.017200797231895, "factor": 1.017200797231895, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T22:33:02.238Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.041573582845621765, "goalHistoryGoals": 2.0, "goalHistoryShots": 87.0, "goalExpected": 0.015298347801805076, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.015561491580326933, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.015181922539907895, "goalProbability": 0.015441037196267311, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0259114656359416, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 7, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 0.36798242428644057, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.170418006430868, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 11.847619047619048, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.052367424242425, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.0, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9589471960166247, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9956874166464801, "Position_Factor": 0.9732049652601255, "Input_GP": 7, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1981.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.9671102822751547, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 9.830833333333334, "Prior_PP_Share": 9.619445356857965e-05, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.8586256566683613, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.34640522875817, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.8586256566683613, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9956874166464801, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 0.8723043372910104, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2024021045", "date": "20250313", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 5.45 }, { "gameId": "2024020820", "date": "20250130", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 14.416666666666666 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "NHL.com October 20 game-specific projected lineup", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 45, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479394", "goalieName": "Carter Hart", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8481161", "goals": 0, "sog": 4, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 3, "recordedAttempts": 4, "log": [ { "gameId": "2022020510", "date": "20221220", "season": 2022, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2 }, { "gameId": "2022020250", "date": "20221115", "season": 2022, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2021021118", "date": "20220405", "season": 2021, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479394", "goalieName": "Carter Hart", "opponent": "CBJ", "games": 5, "availableGames": 11, "shotsAgainst": 128.0, "goalsAgainst": 11.0, "savePct": 0.9140625, "gaa": 2.6073215696602583, "gsax": 0.11300000000000043, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020692", "date": "20260108", "goalieTeam": "VGK", "opponent": "CBJ", "shotsAgainst": 1.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 504.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 0.415 }, { "gameId": "2025020502", "date": "20251213", "goalieTeam": "VGK", "opponent": "CBJ", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.064 }, { "gameId": "2023020011", "date": "20231012", "goalieTeam": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "shotsAgainst": 33.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.608 }, { "gameId": "2022021287", "date": "20230411", "goalieTeam": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "shotsAgainst": 31.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3884.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.732 }, { "gameId": "2022020510", "date": "20221220", "goalieTeam": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "shotsAgainst": 33.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.294 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.36798242428644057, "adjustedSOG": 0.36798242428644057, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.36798242428644057, "adjustedSOG": 0.36798242428644057, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.041573582845621765, "goalHistoryGoals": 2.0, "goalHistoryShots": 87.0, "goalExpected": 0.015298347801805076, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.015298347801805076, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.015181922539907895, "goalProbability": 0.015181922539907895, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05774259992131269, "modelSOG": 0.36798242428644057, "historyGames": 115, "seasonGames": { "2024": 68, "2025": 40, "2026": 7 }, "historyGoals": 2.0, "historyShots": 87.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.022988505747126436, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.041573582845621765, "goalieFactor": 1.017200797231895, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 31.314185323938514, "btb": { "id": "8481161", "name": "Jake Christiansen", "score": 31.314185323938514, "components": { "Goal model": 2.558139534883721, "SOG model": 3.953488372093023, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 10.465116279069768, "Goalie": 18.38235294117647, "Team H2H": 52.371627502175805, "Goalie H2H": 48.643919510061245 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 2, "goalieH2HShots": 4, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 429 } }, { "id": "8477527", "name": "Ross Johnston", "team": "STL", "opponent": "CAR", "position": "L", "currentGP": 6, "currentSOG": 0.5, "priorSOG": 0.532258064516129, "currentTOI": 8.338888888888889, "currentFiveTOI": 8.200000000000001, "ppShare": 0.0077628793225123505, "rate": 0.42809005243900483, "fifty": 0.42428392027429673, "inputs": { "Player": "Ross Johnston", "Player_ID": "8477527", "Team": "STL", "Opponent": "CAR", "Position": "L", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 0.4857742428621169, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 0.47996379293322394, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 6, "Prior_GP": 62, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.658536585365854, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.3181576962824346, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 8.627338709677419, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 8.200000000000001, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0077628793225123505, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.006673788713609069, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 11.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1417.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 4, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.016414141414142, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.03730281875200726, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.03894181761154239, "Other_State_SOG": 0.0, "Environment_Proxy": 0.85, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 0.532258064516129, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/st-louis-blues/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:48.070999+00:00", "priorGP": 62, "currentTotalSOG": 3.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.030555555555555555, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.50 SOG/game in 6 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 6 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.31, "currentIXG": 0.051666666666666666, "priorTOI": 9.743817204301076, "priorPPTOI": 0.03494623655913978, "deploymentChange": -1.404928315412187, "ppTOIChange": -0.004390681003584227, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020688", "date": "20260108", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 9.783333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020070", "date": "20251016", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 7.4 } ], "h2hGames": 2, "h2hAvailableGames": 2, "h2hSOG": 0.5, "opponentDefense": { "team": "CAR", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 246.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 22.363636363636363, "mostAllowedRank": 31, "fiveSogAllowed60": 21.75191064079953, "pkSogAllowed60": 32.87187039764359, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 33.09090909090909, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 77.0, "R": 66.0, "D": 59.0, "L": 44.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.0, "L": 4.0, "R": 6.0, "D": 5.363636363636363 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 23.0, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 7, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 22.428571428571427, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 22.363636363636363, "oppPosSogAllowed": 4.0, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8481611", "team": "CAR", "name": "Pyotr Kochetkov", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 6, "savePct": 0.8991596638655462, "gaa": 1.9842910293509715, "gsax": 2.2720000000000002, "goalsAllowed": 12.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 14.272, "shotsAgainst": 119.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9828959307519136, "factor": 0.9828959307519136, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T22:32:34.088Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.1162159488059075, "goalHistoryGoals": 4.0, "goalHistoryShots": 45.0, "goalExpected": 0.05172179565505006, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.05083714248053071, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.050406989000245934, "goalProbability": 0.049566556837884385, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.08404321623615499, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 6, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 0.4450490331704019, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.658536585365854, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 8.200000000000001, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0077628793225123505, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.016414141414142, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.03894181761154239, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9235603264096603, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.85, "Position_Factor": 0.9950657537101978, "Input_GP": 6, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 11.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1417.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.3181576962824346, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 9.624462365591398, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.006673788713609069, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.8900980663408036, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.062091503267974, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.8900980663408036, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.85, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 3.658536585365854, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020688", "date": "20260108", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 9.783333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020070", "date": "20251016", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 7.4 } ], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 56, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481611", "goalieName": "Pyotr Kochetkov", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8477527", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481611", "goalieName": "Pyotr Kochetkov", "opponent": "STL", "games": 3, "availableGames": 3, "shotsAgainst": 60.0, "goalsAgainst": 6.0, "savePct": 0.9, "gaa": 2.610587382160986, "gsax": -0.46099999999999985, "log": [ { "gameId": "2024020284", "date": "20241117", "goalieTeam": "CAR", "opponent": "STL", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3598.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.005 }, { "gameId": "2024020084", "date": "20241019", "goalieTeam": "CAR", "opponent": "STL", "shotsAgainst": 19.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3476.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.804 }, { "gameId": "2022020369", "date": "20221201", "goalieTeam": "CAR", "opponent": "STL", "shotsAgainst": 11.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 1200.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 0.73 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.4450490331704019, "adjustedSOG": 0.4450490331704019, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.4450490331704019, "adjustedSOG": 0.4450490331704019, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.1162159488059075, "goalHistoryGoals": 4.0, "goalHistoryShots": 45.0, "goalExpected": 0.05172179565505006, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.05172179565505006, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.050406989000245934, "goalProbability": 0.050406989000245934, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12851312576856588, "modelSOG": 0.4450490331704019, "historyGames": 111, "seasonGames": { "2024": 43, "2025": 62, "2026": 6 }, "historyGoals": 4.0, "historyShots": 45.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.08888888888888889, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.1162159488059075, "goalieFactor": 0.9828959307519136, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8477969", "name": "Marcus Pettersson", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "OTT", "position": "D", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 0.6363636363636364, "priorSOG": 0.8048780487804879, "currentTOI": 20.31060606060606, "currentFiveTOI": 17.233333333333334, "ppShare": 0.015525982256020279, "rate": 0.7321964349612717, "fifty": 0.6997091906233691, "inputs": { "Player": "Marcus Pettersson", "Player_ID": "8477969", "Team": "NYR", "Opponent": "OTT", "Position": "D", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 0.7078432181364775, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 0.7009141964283587, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 11, "Prior_GP": 82, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.2155793915948654, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 2.4378407051679964, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 8.737864077669903, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 17.465955284552845, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 17.233333333333334, "Current_PP_Share": 0.015525982256020279, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.02219373188679042, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 49.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3156.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 7, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.145909090909091, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.09018878326881373, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.079895293236548, "Other_State_SOG": 0.054878048780487805, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9343896732646498, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 0.8048780487804879, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-york-rangers/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:48.104132+00:00", "priorGP": 82, "currentTotalSOG": 7.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.07424242424242423, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.64 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.55, "currentIXG": 0.05, "priorTOI": 21.452845528455285, "priorPPTOI": 0.08373983739837398, "deploymentChange": -1.142239467849226, "ppTOIChange": -0.00949741315594975, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021011", "date": "20260309", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 22.166666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2025020725", "date": "20260113", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 24.816666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020671", "date": "20250111", "team": "PIT", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 20.316666666666666 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 0.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "OTT", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 255.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 25.5, "mostAllowedRank": 25, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.477120373069077, "pkSogAllowed60": 46.82395644283122, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 38.7, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 67.0, "C": 98.0, "R": 48.0, "L": 42.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.8, "L": 4.2, "R": 4.8, "D": 6.7 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 24.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 22.6, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 25.5, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.7, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8477992", "team": "OTT", "name": "Jonas Johansson", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 0, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "goalsAllowed": null, "xGoalsAgainst": null, "shotsAgainst": null, "scenarioFactor": 1, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; no matching goalie statistics in this snapshot, so the goalie factor remains neutral.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T15:15:50.280Z", "idResolution": "Exact goalie name mapped to one unique MoneyPuck player ID" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.05255212599365317, "goalHistoryGoals": 7.0, "goalHistoryShots": 143.0, "goalExpected": 0.031331561365840574, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.031331561365840574, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.030845814286371537, "goalProbability": 0.030845814286371537, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 0.5961996926560983, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.2155793915948654, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 17.233333333333334, "Current_PP_Share": 0.015525982256020279, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.145909090909091, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.079895293236548, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9604171757553249, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9920036605974645, "Position_Factor": 0.9967592108017584, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 49.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3156.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 2.4378407051679964, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 8.737864077669903, "Prior_5v5_Min": 18.008739837398373, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.02219373188679042, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9560053380782918, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.34640522875817, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9560053380782918, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9920036605974645, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 2.2155793915948654, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021011", "date": "20260309", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 22.166666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2025020725", "date": "20260113", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 24.816666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020671", "date": "20250111", "team": "PIT", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 20.316666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020478", "date": "20241214", "team": "PIT", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 6.183333333333334 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 113, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477992", "goalieName": "Jonas Johansson", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8477969", "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 1, "log": [ { "gameId": "2024020686", "date": "20250112", "season": 2024, "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 1 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477992", "goalieName": "Jonas Johansson", "opponent": "NYR", "games": 4, "availableGames": 4, "shotsAgainst": 43.0, "goalsAgainst": 6.0, "savePct": 0.8604651162790697, "gaa": 2.615328732292045, "gsax": -1.567, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020391", "date": "20251129", "goalieTeam": "TBL", "opponent": "NYR", "shotsAgainst": 13.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.688 }, { "gameId": "2025020265", "date": "20251112", "goalieTeam": "TBL", "opponent": "NYR", "shotsAgainst": 7.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 993.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 0.748 }, { "gameId": "2024021310", "date": "20250417", "goalieTeam": "TBL", "opponent": "NYR", "shotsAgainst": 22.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3573.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.983 }, { "gameId": "2021020399", "date": "20211208", "goalieTeam": "COL", "opponent": "NYR", "shotsAgainst": 1.0, "goalsAgainst": 0.0, "seconds": 93.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 0.014 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.5961996926560983, "adjustedSOG": 0.5961996926560983, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.6083670333225493, "adjustedSOG": 0.5961996926560983, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.05255212599365317, "goalHistoryGoals": 7.0, "goalHistoryShots": 143.0, "goalExpected": 0.03197098098555161, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.03197098098555161, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.03146531240650851, "goalProbability": 0.03146531240650851, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.057701666164577205, "modelSOG": 0.5961996926560983, "historyGames": 171, "seasonGames": { "2024": 78, "2025": 82, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 7.0, "historyShots": 143.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.04895104895104895, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.05255212599365317, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 33.042313263881056, "btb": { "id": "8477969", "name": "Marcus Pettersson", "score": 33.042313263881056, "components": { "Goal model": 7.906976744186046, "SOG model": 9.534883720930232, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 6.046511627906977, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 35.86348377471093, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": 0, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 424 } }, { "id": "8481624", "name": "Ilya Mikheyev", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "UTA", "position": "R", "currentGP": 9, "currentSOG": 1.3333333333333333, "priorSOG": 1.5921052631578947, "currentTOI": 14.894444444444446, "currentFiveTOI": 12.777777777777779, "ppShare": 0.004768392370572207, "rate": 1.287214082957256, "fifty": 1.2429735772898205, "inputs": { "Player": "Ilya Mikheyev", "Player_ID": "8481624", "Team": "TBL", "Opponent": "UTA", "Position": "R", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.3026867862306037, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.2247041627568456, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 9, "Prior_GP": 76, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.217391304347826, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.402046229632437, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 13.284904970760234, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 12.777777777777779, "Current_PP_Share": 0.004768392370572207, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.0139862064823527, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 14.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2936.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 5, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.626018518518518, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.03485120504423681, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.022058671409829447, "Other_State_SOG": 0.2590643274853801, "Environment_Proxy": 0.85, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.5921052631578947, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:48.129715+00:00", "priorGP": 76.0, "currentTotalSOG": 12.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.025925925925925925, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.33 SOG/game in 9 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 9 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.286, "currentIXG": 0.1428888888888889, "priorTOI": 17.435087719298245, "priorPPTOI": 0.06052631578947368, "deploymentChange": -2.5406432748537995, "ppTOIChange": -0.034600389863547756, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021037", "date": "20260312", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 17.366666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025021010", "date": "20260309", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 18.6 }, { "gameId": "2025020949", "date": "20260301", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 16.566666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020048", "date": "20251013", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 2.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 18.683333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024021173", "date": "20250330", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 15.483333333333333 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 8, "h2hSOG": 1.6, "opponentDefense": { "team": "UTA", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 225.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 22.5, "mostAllowedRank": 30, "fiveSogAllowed60": 21.06050814598143, "pkSogAllowed60": 53.47313237221494, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 35.6, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 58.0, "C": 87.0, "R": 52.0, "L": 28.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 8.7, "L": 2.8, "R": 5.2, "D": 5.8 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 22.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 20.25, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 22.5, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.2, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8478872", "team": "UTA", "name": "Karel Vejmelka", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 8, "savePct": 0.8793103448275862, "gaa": 2.8927833473635878, "gsax": -2.0919999999999987, "goalsAllowed": 21.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 18.908, "shotsAgainst": 174.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0222659253207917, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Likely starter per Daily Faceoff; no Model Goal adjustment until confirmed.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T17:11:59.953Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.14243962698321244, "goalHistoryGoals": 40.0, "goalHistoryShots": 271.0, "goalExpected": 0.16285597351747286, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.16285597351747286, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.15028643914273163, "goalProbability": 0.15028643914273163, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 9, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.143333333333333, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.217391304347826, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 12.777777777777779, "Current_PP_Share": 0.004768392370572207, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.626018518518518, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.022058671409829447, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.2222222222222222, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9114659361351877, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.05376529706562, "Position_Factor": 1.021180935033394, "Input_GP": 9, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 14.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2936.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.402046229632437, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 14.468201754385964, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.0139862064823527, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9830601092896174, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.382352941176471, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.7998362133629682, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.05376529706562, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.9347181008902075, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 4, "sogPerGame": 1.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 4, "sogPerGame": 1.75 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021037", "date": "20260312", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 17.366666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025021010", "date": "20260309", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 18.6 }, { "gameId": "2025020949", "date": "20260301", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 16.566666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020048", "date": "20251013", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 2.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 18.683333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024021173", "date": "20250330", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 15.483333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020999", "date": "20250307", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 19.15 }, { "gameId": "2024020929", "date": "20250225", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 18.883333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020005", "date": "20241008", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 15.833333333333334 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "NHL.com projected lineup", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 15, "priorAttempts": 142, "fitPct": -6.672126221234393, "index": 93.3278737787656, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 25.014084507042256, "opponentDeltaPct": -5.689070301576365, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 32 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 11.32394366197183, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.7770704564453013, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 26 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 46.929577464788736, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.327351233427365, "currentAttempts": 8, "priorAttempts": 53 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 5.070422535211268, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.9245535697431251, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 18 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 10.535211267605634, "opponentDeltaPct": -16.04971857561877, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 9 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 1.1267605633802817, "opponentDeltaPct": -20.1847447341527, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -6.672126221234393, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478872", "goalieName": "Karel Vejmelka", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8481624", "goals": 1, "sog": 8, "shootingPct": 0.125, "gamesWithAttempts": 6, "recordedAttempts": 10, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020949", "date": "20260301", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2 }, { "gameId": "2024021173", "date": "20250330", "season": 2024, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2 }, { "gameId": "2024020999", "date": "20250307", "season": 2024, "goals": 1, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2024020929", "date": "20250225", "season": 2024, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2 }, { "gameId": "2022020388", "date": "20221203", "season": 2022, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2 }, { "gameId": "2021020649", "date": "20220112", "season": 2021, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478872", "goalieName": "Karel Vejmelka", "opponent": "TBL", "games": 5, "availableGames": 6, "shotsAgainst": 128.0, "goalsAgainst": 18.0, "savePct": 0.859375, "gaa": 4.0538004379105415, "gsax": -5.162, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020825", "date": "20260126", "goalieTeam": "UTA", "opponent": "TBL", "shotsAgainst": 29.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.389 }, { "gameId": "2025020194", "date": "20251102", "goalieTeam": "UTA", "opponent": "TBL", "shotsAgainst": 25.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3527.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.366 }, { "gameId": "2024021145", "date": "20250327", "goalieTeam": "UTA", "opponent": "TBL", "shotsAgainst": 12.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 1754.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.834 }, { "gameId": "2024021111", "date": "20250322", "goalieTeam": "UTA", "opponent": "TBL", "shotsAgainst": 27.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.77 }, { "gameId": "2022020582", "date": "20221231", "goalieTeam": "ARI", "opponent": "TBL", "shotsAgainst": 35.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3504.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.479 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.143333333333333, "adjustedSOG": 1.143333333333333, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.1666666666666665, "adjustedSOG": 1.143333333333333, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.14243962698321244, "goalHistoryGoals": 40.0, "goalHistoryShots": 271.0, "goalExpected": 0.16617956481374782, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.16617956481374782, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.1531058518548186, "goalProbability": 0.1531058518548186, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12845101610771814, "modelSOG": 1.143333333333333, "historyGames": 165, "seasonGames": { "2024": 80, "2025": 76, "2026": 9 }, "historyGoals": 40.0, "historyShots": 271.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.14760147601476015, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.14243962698321244, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 52.66050863238003, "btb": { "id": "8481624", "name": "Ilya Mikheyev", "score": 52.66050863238003, "components": { "Goal model": 56.04651162790697, "SOG model": 37.7906976744186, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 45.116279069767444, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 67.00029010733971, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Likely", "h2hGames": 8, "goalieH2HShots": 8, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 177 } }, { "id": "8480002", "name": "Nico Hischier", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "LAK", "position": "C", "currentGP": 9, "currentSOG": 2.2222222222222223, "priorSOG": 2.573170731707317, "currentTOI": 18.520370370370372, "currentFiveTOI": 12.357407407407408, "ppShare": 0.6336888561971313, "rate": 2.481911887334003, "fifty": 2.436892199847768, "inputs": { "Player": "Nico Hischier", "Player_ID": "8480002", "Team": "NJD", "Opponent": "LAK", "Position": "C", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 2.6498429516921203, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 2.489874408812681, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 9, "Prior_GP": 82, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.934362355762026, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.765863590091619, "Current_PP_SOG60": 18.804410911201394, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 16.347381864623244, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 13.142563233965674, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 12.357407407407408, "Current_PP_Share": 0.6336888561971313, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.7385940824433241, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1723.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2719.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 4, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.972354497354498, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 3.307413426091608, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 3.150925634035234, "Other_State_SOG": 0.3073170731707317, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9908219918860978, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 2.573170731707317, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-jersey-devils/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:48.150840+00:00", "priorGP": 82, "currentTotalSOG": 20.0, "currentPPTOI": 3.1907407407407407, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.22 SOG/game in 9 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 9 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 3.595, "currentIXG": 0.3994444444444445, "priorTOI": 20.716666666666665, "priorPPTOI": 2.8646341463414635, "deploymentChange": -2.1962962962962926, "ppTOIChange": 0.32610659439927714, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021050", "date": "20260314", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 2.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 20.433333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020191", "date": "20251101", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 22.216666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2024020602", "date": "20250101", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 9.0, "toi": 22.133333333333333 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 2.6666666666666665, "opponentDefense": { "team": "LAK", "games": 7, "sogAllowedTotal": 193.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.571428571428573, "mostAllowedRank": 14, "fiveSogAllowed60": 25.227874154660395, "pkSogAllowed60": 57.61396702230844, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 39.142857142857146, "positionUnassignedSOG": 1.0, "positionTotals": { "C": 86.0, "D": 47.0, "R": 28.0, "L": 31.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 12.285714285714286, "L": 4.428571428571429, "R": 4.0, "D": 6.714285714285714 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 27.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 29.5, "positionSourceDifference": 1.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.571428571428573, "oppPosSogAllowed": 12.285714285714286, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8476341", "team": "LAK", "name": "Anton Forsberg", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 3, "savePct": 0.8833333333333333, "gaa": 2.6313041662315966, "gsax": -2.1049999999999995, "goalsAllowed": 7.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.8950000000000005, "shotsAgainst": 60.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0218332511814823, "factor": 1.0218332511814823, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T19:00:24.293Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.15412711173513685, "goalHistoryGoals": 67.0, "goalHistoryShots": 418.0, "goalExpected": 0.37707288089947305, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.3853056078218764, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.31413391446278804, "goalProbability": 0.31975728305974227, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.5623368596954226, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 9, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 2.4465058525683805, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.934362355762026, "Current_PP_SOG60": 18.804410911201394, "Current_5v5_Min": 12.357407407407408, "Current_PP_Share": 0.6336888561971313, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.972354497354498, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 3.150925634035234, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9946407827573338, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.085978140946376, "Position_Factor": 1.0294279115633451, "Input_GP": 9, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1723.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2719.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.765863590091619, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 16.347381864623244, "Prior_5v5_Min": 14.974593495934961, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.7385940824433241, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.124246374450057, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.437908496732026, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.124246374450057, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.085978140946376, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.934362355762026, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 18.804410911201394, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021050", "date": "20260314", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 2.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 20.433333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020191", "date": "20251101", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 22.216666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2024020602", "date": "20250101", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 9.0, "toi": 22.133333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020461", "date": "20241212", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "LAK", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 21.083333333333332 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 178, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 82, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. 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Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 6.27, "currentIXG": 0.627, "priorTOI": 19.079047619047618, "priorPPTOI": 3.2883333333333336, "deploymentChange": 1.4126190476190494, "ppTOIChange": -0.52, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021240", "date": "20260407", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 13.15 }, { "gameId": "2025020693", "date": "20260108", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 7.95 }, { "gameId": "2025020465", "date": "20251208", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "away", "sog": 6.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 21.066666666666666 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 4.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "SEA", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 311.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 31.1, "mostAllowedRank": 3, "fiveSogAllowed60": 29.01212141229316, "pkSogAllowed60": 57.63738641280831, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 48.5, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 101.0, "R": 65.0, "L": 58.0, "D": 87.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.1, "L": 5.8, "R": 6.5, "D": 8.7 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 31.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 3, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 28.666666666666668, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 31.1, "oppPosSogAllowed": 10.1, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8478916", "team": "SEA", "name": "Joey Daccord", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 5, "savePct": 0.881578947368421, "gaa": 3.8855909336211547, "gsax": -2.3970000000000002, "goalsAllowed": 18.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 15.603, "shotsAgainst": 152.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.024854248577667, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Likely starter per Daily Faceoff; no Model Goal adjustment until confirmed.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T20:31:39.541Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.10248520302426647, "goalHistoryGoals": 35.0, "goalHistoryShots": 367.0, "goalExpected": 0.34376631041925804, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.34376631041925804, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.29090538328741444, "goalProbability": 0.29090538328741444, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 3.354301892126427, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 8.005336891260841, "Current_PP_SOG60": 17.338952438290185, "Current_5v5_Min": 14.99, "Current_PP_Share": 0.6841021416803954, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 3.9491666666666667, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 2.7016333745194947, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.5, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0689197555315912, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0920680305430235, "Position_Factor": 0.9921459571037935, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1661.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2428.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 7.660679506600303, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 12.251104192310477, "Prior_5v5_Min": 13.202857142857143, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.6232366423976269, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0350761772853185, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.437908496732026, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0350761772853185, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0920680305430235, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 8.005336891260841, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 17.338952438290185, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 1.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 4.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021240", "date": "20260407", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 13.15 }, { "gameId": "2025020693", "date": "20260108", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 7.95 }, { "gameId": "2025020465", "date": "20251208", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "away", "sog": 6.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 21.066666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020033", "date": "20241012", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 11.733333333333333 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 173, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 68, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478916", "goalieName": "Joey Daccord", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8478493", "goals": 0, "sog": 10, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 5, "recordedAttempts": 11, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021240", "date": "20260407", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2 }, { "gameId": "2024020033", "date": "20241012", "season": 2024, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2023021307", "date": "20240418", "season": 2023, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2 }, { "gameId": "2023020913", "date": "20240224", "season": 2023, "goals": 0, "sog": 4, "attempts": 4 }, { "gameId": "2023020426", "date": "20231210", "season": 2023, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478916", "goalieName": "Joey Daccord", "opponent": "MIN", "games": 5, "availableGames": 6, "shotsAgainst": 123.0, "goalsAgainst": 19.0, "savePct": 0.8455284552845528, "gaa": 4.3387250237868695, "gsax": -6.912000000000001, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021240", "date": "20260407", "goalieTeam": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 28.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3488.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.569 }, { "gameId": "2024020982", "date": "20250304", "goalieTeam": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 20.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3463.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.635 }, { "gameId": "2024020033", "date": "20241012", "goalieTeam": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 38.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3885.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.839 }, { "gameId": "2023021307", "date": "20240418", "goalieTeam": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.121 }, { "gameId": "2023020913", "date": "20240224", "goalieTeam": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 13.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 1329.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.924 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 3.354301892126427, "adjustedSOG": 3.354301892126427, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 3.4227570327820684, "adjustedSOG": 3.354301892126427, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.10248520302426647, "goalHistoryGoals": 35.0, "goalHistoryShots": 367.0, "goalExpected": 0.3507819494074062, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.3507819494074062, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.29586272533263075, "goalProbability": 0.29586272533263075, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1286058981233244, "modelSOG": 3.354301892126427, "historyGames": 126, "seasonGames": { "2024": 46, "2025": 70, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 35.0, "historyShots": 367.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.09536784741144415, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.10248520302426647, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 66.06620230216078, "btb": { "id": "8478493", "name": "Joel Eriksson Ek", "score": 66.06620230216078, "components": { "Goal model": 89.76744186046511, "SOG model": 96.97674418604652, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 99.30232558139535, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 55.55762775083924, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Likely", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": 10, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 24 } }, { "id": "8483553", "name": "Marc Gatcomb", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "CBJ", "position": "L", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 1.8181818181818181, "priorSOG": 1.1224489795918366, "currentTOI": 11.022727272727273, "currentFiveTOI": 10.700000000000001, "ppShare": 0.006379585326953748, "rate": 1.2552069711117928, "fifty": 1.4884601237597908, "inputs": { "Player": "Marc Gatcomb", "Player_ID": "8483553", "Team": "VGK", "Opponent": "CBJ", "Position": "C", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.3380254167471806, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.8085159554156576, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 11, "Prior_GP": 49, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 10.195412064570943, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.494655864932943, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 98.63013698630137, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 10.487755102040817, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 10.700000000000001, "Current_PP_Share": 0.006379585326953748, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.005417247516989307, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 24.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3762.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 6, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.392708333333333, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.03284636081769143, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.03440324295587453, "Other_State_SOG": 0.0, "Environment_Proxy": 1.0241190783267258, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.1224489795918366, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/vegas-golden-knights/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:48.188369+00:00", "priorGP": 49, "currentTotalSOG": 20.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.03636363636363637, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.82 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.678, "currentIXG": 0.15254545454545454, "priorTOI": 10.087074829931973, "priorPPTOI": 0.024829931972789113, "deploymentChange": 0.9356524427953001, "ppTOIChange": 0.011533704390847256, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021114", "date": "20260322", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 12.25 }, { "gameId": "2025020937", "date": "20260228", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 10.65 }, { "gameId": "2025020603", "date": "20251228", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 8.333333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024021312", "date": "20250417", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 12.366666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024021126", "date": "20250324", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 11.45 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 6, "h2hSOG": 1.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "CBJ", "games": 8, "sogAllowedTotal": 222.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.75, "mostAllowedRank": 13, "fiveSogAllowed60": 26.021128266541208, "pkSogAllowed60": 45.718967636214664, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 43.125, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 66.0, "D": 61.0, "R": 49.0, "L": 46.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 8.25, "L": 5.75, "R": 6.125, "D": 7.625 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 28.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.666666666666668, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.75, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.75, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8475660", "team": "CBJ", "name": "Cam Talbot", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 4, "savePct": 0.8674698795180723, "gaa": 3.3959351685104195, "gsax": -0.8840000000000003, "goalsAllowed": 11.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 10.116, "shotsAgainst": 83.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0106708091071457, "factor": 1.0106708091071457, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T15:32:32.146Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.11505701473245232, "goalHistoryGoals": 12.0, "goalHistoryShots": 116.0, "goalExpected": 0.21739279063247666, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.21971254760258552, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.1953861375607692, "goalProbability": 0.19725048292628486, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.18643453655156628, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.8894353476664651, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 10.195412064570943, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 10.700000000000001, "Current_PP_Share": 0.006379585326953748, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.392708333333333, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.03440324295587453, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0080456056426796, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9827600403123256, "Position_Factor": 1.0127584007506538, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 24.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3762.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.494655864932943, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 98.63013698630137, "Prior_5v5_Min": 9.992517006802721, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.005417247516989307, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0603973889964853, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.062091503267974, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0603973889964853, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9827600403123256, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 10.195412064570943, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 1.3333333333333333 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 0.6666666666666666 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021114", "date": "20260322", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 12.25 }, { "gameId": "2025020937", "date": "20260228", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 10.65 }, { "gameId": "2025020603", "date": "20251228", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 8.333333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024021312", "date": "20250417", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 12.366666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024021126", "date": "20250324", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 11.45 }, { "gameId": "2024020745", "date": "20250120", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 8.016666666666667 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 74, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475660", "goalieName": "Cam Talbot", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8483553", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475660", "goalieName": "Cam Talbot", "opponent": "VGK", "games": 5, "availableGames": 22, "shotsAgainst": 160.0, "goalsAgainst": 16.0, "savePct": 0.9, "gaa": 3.176704169424222, "gsax": 0.6329999999999996, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020970", "date": "20260304", "goalieTeam": "DET", "opponent": "VGK", "shotsAgainst": 25.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3728.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.397 }, { "gameId": "2024021115", "date": "20250322", "goalieTeam": "DET", "opponent": "VGK", "shotsAgainst": 35.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3491.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.784 }, { "gameId": "2023020544", "date": "20231228", "goalieTeam": "LAK", "opponent": "VGK", "shotsAgainst": 32.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3478.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.46 }, { "gameId": "2023020192", "date": "20231108", "goalieTeam": "LAK", "opponent": "VGK", "shotsAgainst": 38.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.55 }, { "gameId": "2023020125", "date": "20231028", "goalieTeam": "LAK", "opponent": "VGK", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3835.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.442 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.8894353476664651, "adjustedSOG": 1.8894353476664651, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.9279952527208828, "adjustedSOG": 1.8894353476664651, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.11505701473245232, "goalHistoryGoals": 12.0, "goalHistoryShots": 116.0, "goalExpected": 0.22182937819640475, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.2241964771454954, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.19894797038264392, "goalProbability": 0.20084189735950897, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.18939269768650513 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.128523151822097, "modelSOG": 1.8894353476664651, "historyGames": 99, "seasonGames": { "2024": 39, "2025": 49, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 12.0, "historyShots": 116.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.10344827586206896, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.11505701473245232, "goalieFactor": 1.0106708091071457, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 48.8316884574584, "btb": { "id": "8483553", "name": "Marc Gatcomb", "score": 48.8316884574584, "components": { "Goal model": 71.86046511627907, "SOG model": 72.55813953488372, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 47.325581395348834, "Goalie": 13.088235294117647, "Team H2H": 31.93537859007833, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 6, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 214 } }, { "id": "8483482", "name": "Tristan Luneau", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "PHI", "position": "D", "currentGP": 9, "currentSOG": 0.7777777777777778, "priorSOG": 2, "currentTOI": 21.17037037037037, "currentFiveTOI": 18.109259259259257, "ppShare": 0.16216216216216217, "rate": 2.8157236280609044, "fifty": 2.2039668021680208, "inputs": { "Player": "Tristan Luneau", "Player_ID": "8483482", "Team": "ANA", "Opponent": "PHI", "Position": "D", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 2.645878306744957, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.8532926293528929, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 9, "Prior_GP": 1, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.5769506084466713, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 10.329985652797705, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 16.16148148148148, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 18.109259259259257, "Current_PP_Share": 0.16216216216216217, "Prior_PP_Share": 0, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 402.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2479.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 5, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.388425925925926, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.6116591591591591, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.8737987987987988, "Other_State_SOG": 0.0, "Environment_Proxy": 1.15, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 2, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/anaheim-ducks/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:48.208935+00:00", "priorGP": 1, "currentTotalSOG": 7.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.7444444444444445, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.78 SOG/game in 9 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 9 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.536, "currentIXG": 0.059555555555555556, "priorTOI": 11.616666666666667, "priorPPTOI": 0, "deploymentChange": 9.553703703703704, "ppTOIChange": 0.7444444444444445, "h2hLog": [], "h2hGames": 0, "h2hAvailableGames": 0, "h2hSOG": null, "opponentDefense": { "team": "PHI", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 383.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 31.916666666666668, "mostAllowedRank": 2, "fiveSogAllowed60": 31.042564889030356, "pkSogAllowed60": 46.879209699146834, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.75, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 113.0, "C": 130.0, "R": 73.0, "L": 67.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.833333333333334, "L": 5.583333333333333, "R": 6.083333333333333, "D": 9.416666666666666 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 27.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.833333333333332, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 31.916666666666668, "oppPosSogAllowed": 9.416666666666666, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8479361", "team": "PHI", "name": "Joseph Woll", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 6, "savePct": 0.9166666666666666, "gaa": 2.640143007746253, "gsax": 4.5710000000000015, "goalsAllowed": 16.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 20.571, "shotsAgainst": 192.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9655996195755495, "factor": 0.9655996195755495, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T14:50:13.988Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.05884317146895465, "goalHistoryGoals": 1.0, "goalHistoryShots": 15.0, "goalExpected": 0.05157930885762034, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.04980496101088797, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.05027167489323899, "goalProbability": 0.04858503058025922, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.1686644312979775, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 9, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 0.8765555555555552, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.5769506084466713, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 18.109259259259257, "Current_PP_Share": 0.16216216216216217, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.388425925925926, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.8737987987987988, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.1165260841882552, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9915761915723407, "Position_Factor": 1.0127905449409682, "Input_GP": 9, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 402.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2479.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 10.329985652797705, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 11.616666666666667, "Prior_PP_Share": 0, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.15, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.34640522875817, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9915761915723407, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 2.5769506084466713, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "ppAssignmentSourceDate": "2026-10-13T16:34:52.608Z", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. 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Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479361", "goalieName": "Joseph Woll", "opponent": "ANA", "games": 3, "availableGames": 3, "shotsAgainst": 91.0, "goalsAgainst": 7.0, "savePct": 0.9230769230769231, "gaa": 2.6359832635983262, "gsax": 2.575, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021029", "date": "20260312", "goalieTeam": "TOR", "opponent": "ANA", "shotsAgainst": 40.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3567.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.449 }, { "gameId": "2024021176", "date": "20250330", "goalieTeam": "TOR", "opponent": "ANA", "shotsAgainst": 31.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3593.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.338 }, { "gameId": "2024020459", "date": "20241212", "goalieTeam": "TOR", "opponent": "ANA", "shotsAgainst": 20.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 2400.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.788 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.8765555555555552, "adjustedSOG": 0.8765555555555552, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.8944444444444442, "adjustedSOG": 0.8765555555555552, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.05884317146895465, "goalHistoryGoals": 1.0, "goalHistoryShots": 15.0, "goalExpected": 0.05263194781389831, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.05082138878662038, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.051270869938049385, "goalProbability": 0.0495515838823993, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.17192860556500822 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.057669647189297846, "modelSOG": 0.8765555555555552, "historyGames": 16, "seasonGames": { "2024": 6, "2025": 1, "2026": 9 }, "historyGoals": 1.0, "historyShots": 15.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.06666666666666667, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.05884317146895465, "goalieFactor": 0.9655996195755495, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": 36.187756497948016, "btb": { "id": "8483482", "name": "Tristan Luneau", "score": 36.187756497948016, "components": { "Goal model": 16.27906976744186, "SOG model": 20.0, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 15.348837209302326, "Goalie": 28.970588235294116, "Team H2H": 50.0, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Team H2H unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 0, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 396 } }, { "id": "8479337", "name": "Alex DeBrincat", "team": "DET", "opponent": "CGY", "position": "L", "currentGP": 9, "currentSOG": 3.888888888888889, "priorSOG": 3.5, "currentTOI": 20.55740740740741, "currentFiveTOI": 15.537037037037038, "ppShare": 0.6847619047619048, "rate": 3.97107557803626, "fifty": 3.9940452685309134, "inputs": { "Player": "Alex DeBrincat", "Player_ID": "8479337", "Team": "DET", "Opponent": "CGY", "Position": "R", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 3.4812687359278143, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 3.5171884370088002, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 9, "Prior_GP": 82, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 9.439809296781883, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 9.659050364640569, "Current_PP_SOG60": 13.351877607788595, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 15.23689197725837, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 15.148425925925926, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 15.537037037037038, "Current_PP_Share": 0.6847619047619048, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.6072719181813301, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2157.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3150.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 5, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.430208333333333, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 3.5921637703233835, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 3.7183998015873017, "Other_State_SOG": 0.36287262872628734, "Environment_Proxy": 1.096640755468006, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 3.5, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:48.229906+00:00", "priorGP": 82, "currentTotalSOG": 35.0, "currentPPTOI": 3.994444444444445, "volumeNote": "Observed 3.89 SOG/game in 9 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 9 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 4.876, "currentIXG": 0.5417777777777778, "priorTOI": 18.50020325203252, "priorPPTOI": 3.217479674796748, "deploymentChange": 2.0572041553748903, "ppTOIChange": 0.7769647696476971, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021063", "date": "20260316", "team": "DET", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "home", "sog": 6.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 10.0, "toi": 20.05 }, { "gameId": "2025020477", "date": "20251210", "team": "DET", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 2.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 14.933333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020834", "date": "20250201", "team": "DET", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 15.65 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 4.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "CGY", "games": 8, "sogAllowedTotal": 237.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 29.625, "mostAllowedRank": 6, "fiveSogAllowed60": 29.8086265894977, "pkSogAllowed60": 38.789888106092, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.5, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 59.0, "C": 89.0, "R": 48.0, "L": 41.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 11.125, "L": 5.125, "R": 6.0, "D": 7.375 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 30.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.5, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 29.625, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.125, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8482445", "team": "CGY", "name": "Devin Cooley", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 3, "savePct": 0.8681318681318682, "gaa": 4.010025062656641, "gsax": -2.561, "goalsAllowed": 12.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 9.439, "shotsAgainst": 91.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0263021756310153, "factor": 1.0263021756310153, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T16:24:22.507Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.14840517100120862, "goalHistoryGoals": 86.0, "goalHistoryShots": 566.0, "goalExpected": 0.5487587956541606, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.5631923458765208, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.4223336324025653, "goalProbability": 0.43061152552915116, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.8277893126585889, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 9, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 3.6977067035601574, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 9.439809296781883, "Current_PP_SOG60": 13.351877607788595, "Current_5v5_Min": 15.537037037037038, "Current_PP_Share": 0.6847619047619048, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.430208333333333, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 3.7183998015873017, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.5555555555555556, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0746225056341803, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9180727421999328, "Position_Factor": 0.9923066376474455, "Input_GP": 9, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2157.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3150.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 9.659050364640569, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 15.23689197725837, "Prior_5v5_Min": 14.241666666666665, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.6072719181813301, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0055232766659494, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.062091503267974, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0055232766659494, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9180727421999328, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 9.439809296781883, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 13.351877607788595, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 5.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021063", "date": "20260316", "team": "DET", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "home", "sog": 6.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 10.0, "toi": 20.05 }, { "gameId": "2025020477", "date": "20251210", "team": "DET", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 2.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 14.933333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020834", "date": "20250201", "team": "DET", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 15.65 }, { "gameId": "2024020350", "date": "20241127", "team": "DET", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 15.4 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Reviewed October22 projected lineup and coach reports", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 291, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 106, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482445", "goalieName": "Devin Cooley", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8479337", "goals": 2, "sog": 4, "shootingPct": 0.5, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 4, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020477", "date": "20251210", "season": 2025, "goals": 2, "sog": 4, "attempts": 4 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482445", "goalieName": "Devin Cooley", "opponent": "DET", "games": 1, "availableGames": 1, "shotsAgainst": 29.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "savePct": 0.8620689655172413, "gaa": 4.1248925809223715, "gsax": -1.0219999999999998, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020477", "date": "20251210", "goalieTeam": "CGY", "opponent": "DET", "shotsAgainst": 29.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3491.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.978 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 3.6977067035601574, "adjustedSOG": 3.6977067035601574, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 3.77317010567363, "adjustedSOG": 3.6977067035601574, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.14840517100120862, "goalHistoryGoals": 86.0, "goalHistoryShots": 566.0, "goalExpected": 0.5599579547491434, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.5599579547491434, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.4287669190179044, "goalProbability": 0.4287669190179044, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12837843886804953, "modelSOG": 3.6977067035601574, "historyGames": 173, "seasonGames": { "2024": 82, "2025": 82, "2026": 9 }, "historyGoals": 86.0, "historyShots": 566.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.1519434628975265, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.14840517100120862, "goalieFactor": 1.0263021756310153, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 69.93479828313963, "btb": { "id": "8479337", "name": "Alex DeBrincat", "score": 69.93479828313963, "components": { "Goal model": 98.6046511627907, "SOG model": 98.13953488372093, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 98.13953488372093, "Goalie": 71.32352941176471, "Team H2H": 53.61805296531145, "Goalie H2H": 53.1787693205016 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": 4, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 5 } }, { "id": "8476393", "name": "Nick Cousins", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "NYR", "position": "L", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 0.6, "priorSOG": 0.9753086419753086, "currentTOI": 9.178333333333333, "currentFiveTOI": 8.786666666666665, "ppShare": 0.02178496134926212, "rate": 0.7959093520992019, "fifty": 0.6935288259651324, "inputs": { "Player": "Nick Cousins", "Player_ID": "8476393", "Team": "OTT", "Opponent": "NYR", "Position": "C", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 0.8236896291871504, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 0.7168877454231041, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 10, "Prior_GP": 81, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.09711684370258, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.174766644225696, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 9.543197530864196, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 8.786666666666665, "Current_PP_Share": 0.02178496134926212, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.01078620450639681, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 93.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 4269.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 5, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 6.001439393939394, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.11093861345656908, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.13074112523690878, "Other_State_SOG": 0.0, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9482920490252438, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 0.9753086419753086, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/ottawa-senators/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:48.250293+00:00", "priorGP": 81, "currentTotalSOG": 6.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.155, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.60 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.432, "currentIXG": 0.0432, "priorTOI": 11.423456790123456, "priorPPTOI": 0.053292181069958845, "deploymentChange": -2.2451234567901235, "ppTOIChange": 0.10170781893004116, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021119", "date": "20260323", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "NYR", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 9.883333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020737", "date": "20260114", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "NYR", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 12.216666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020427", "date": "20251204", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "NYR", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 8.966666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020750", "date": "20250121", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "NYR", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 13.133333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020170", "date": "20241101", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "NYR", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 8.266666666666667 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 5, "h2hSOG": 0.6, "opponentDefense": { "team": "NYR", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 283.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 25.727272727272727, "mostAllowedRank": 23, "fiveSogAllowed60": 24.897512126427788, "pkSogAllowed60": 40.17358958462492, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 39.81818181818182, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 106.0, "D": 82.0, "R": 57.0, "L": 38.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.636363636363637, "L": 3.4545454545454546, "R": 5.181818181818182, "D": 7.454545454545454 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 27.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.4, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 25.727272727272727, "oppPosSogAllowed": 3.4545454545454546, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8482193", "team": "NYR", "name": "Dylan Garand", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.9285714285714286, "gaa": 1.846928781306842, "gsax": 4.030999999999999, "goalsAllowed": 11.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 15.030999999999999, "shotsAgainst": 154.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9674872583533348, "factor": 0.9674872583533348, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T15:37:42.216Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.11404343447426923, "goalHistoryGoals": 16.0, "goalHistoryShots": 153.0, "goalExpected": 0.0581621515818773, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.056271140573881544, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.056503054489829334, "goalProbability": 0.05471720337997763, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.17858511098517021, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 0.5099999999999999, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.09711684370258, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 8.786666666666665, "Current_PP_Share": 0.02178496134926212, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 6.001439393939394, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.13074112523690878, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9864268368728425, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9197863814450764, "Position_Factor": 0.9636523028595196, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 93.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 4269.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.174766644225696, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 11.30843621399177, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.01078620450639681, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.85, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.062091503267974, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9197863814450764, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 4.09711684370258, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 0.6666666666666666 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021119", "date": "20260323", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "NYR", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 9.883333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020737", "date": "20260114", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "NYR", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 12.216666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020427", "date": "20251204", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "NYR", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 8.966666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020750", "date": "20250121", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "NYR", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 13.133333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020170", "date": "20241101", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "NYR", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 8.266666666666667 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "lineupReviewedAt": "2026-10-22T12:25:32.333917+00:00", "lineupReviewNote": "Reported forward, defense and PP chart reviewed October22; matches existing assignments. Final dressing unconfirmed. Dated statistical inputs now include October21.", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 109, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482193", "goalieName": "Dylan Garand", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8476393", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482193", "goalieName": "Dylan Garand", "opponent": "OTT", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "No appearance found in the supplied historical files; this does not establish that the goalie has never faced the team." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.5099999999999999, "adjustedSOG": 0.5099999999999999, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.5099999999999999, "adjustedSOG": 0.5099999999999999, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.11404343447426923, "goalHistoryGoals": 16.0, "goalHistoryShots": 153.0, "goalExpected": 0.0581621515818773, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.056271140573881544, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.056503054489829334, "goalProbability": 0.05471720337997763, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.17858511098517021 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12852988921990116, "modelSOG": 0.5099999999999999, "historyGames": 141, "seasonGames": { "2024": 50, "2025": 81, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 16.0, "historyShots": 153.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.10457516339869281, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.11404343447426923, "goalieFactor": 0.9674872583533348, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 34.41298357341601, "btb": { "id": "8476393", "name": "Nick Cousins", "score": 34.41298357341601, "components": { "Goal model": 18.837209302325583, "SOG model": 6.744186046511628, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 6.27906976744186, "Goalie": 39.55882352941177, "Team H2H": 38.163620539599656, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 5, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 411 } }, { "id": "8482078", "name": "Lucas Raymond", "team": "DET", "opponent": "CGY", "position": "R", "currentGP": 9, "currentSOG": 3.0, "priorSOG": 2.1625, "currentTOI": 20.86111111111111, "currentFiveTOI": 15.461111111111112, "ppShare": 0.7219047619047619, "rate": 2.5224068096687926, "fifty": 2.7481224711085526, "inputs": { "Player": "Lucas Raymond", "Player_ID": "8482078", "Team": "DET", "Opponent": "CGY", "Position": "L", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 2.255305328650628, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 2.5157657808695237, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 9, "Prior_GP": 80, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.6054617319439455, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.075949367088608, "Current_PP_SOG60": 18.99736147757256, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 10.746268656716419, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 15.118402777777778, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 15.461111111111112, "Current_PP_Share": 0.7219047619047619, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.5927662521003246, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2274.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3150.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 5, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.430208333333333, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 3.7097185503399626, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 3.9200932539682536, "Other_State_SOG": 0.12347222222222223, "Environment_Proxy": 1.096640755468006, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 2.1625, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:48.270428+00:00", "priorGP": 80, "currentTotalSOG": 27.0, "currentPPTOI": 4.211111111111111, "volumeNote": "Observed 3.00 SOG/game in 9 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 9 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 3.5909999999999997, "currentIXG": 0.39899999999999997, "priorTOI": 18.798958333333335, "priorPPTOI": 3.140625, "deploymentChange": 2.0621527777777757, "ppTOIChange": 1.0704861111111112, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021063", "date": "20260316", "team": "DET", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 20.583333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2025020477", "date": "20251210", "team": "DET", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 18.666666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2024020834", "date": "20250201", "team": "DET", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 18.35 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 1.3333333333333333, "opponentDefense": { "team": "CGY", "games": 8, "sogAllowedTotal": 237.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 29.625, "mostAllowedRank": 6, "fiveSogAllowed60": 29.8086265894977, "pkSogAllowed60": 38.789888106092, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.5, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 59.0, "C": 89.0, "R": 48.0, "L": 41.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 11.125, "L": 5.125, "R": 6.0, "D": 7.375 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 30.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.5, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 29.625, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.0, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8482445", "team": "CGY", "name": "Devin Cooley", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 3, "savePct": 0.8681318681318682, "gaa": 4.010025062656641, "gsax": -2.561, "goalsAllowed": 12.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 9.439, "shotsAgainst": 91.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0263021756310153, "factor": 1.0263021756310153, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T16:24:22.507Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.13383612662942274, "goalHistoryGoals": 53.0, "goalHistoryShots": 392.0, "goalExpected": 0.377717981358839, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.38765278604353176, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.3145762243071506, "goalProbability": 0.3213520616034822, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.6775837296331577, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 9, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 2.822242326279345, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.6054617319439455, "Current_PP_SOG60": 18.99736147757256, "Current_5v5_Min": 15.461111111111112, "Current_PP_Share": 0.7219047619047619, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.430208333333333, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 3.9200932539682536, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.2222222222222222, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0746225056341803, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9180727421999328, "Position_Factor": 1.002759140132039, "Input_GP": 9, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2274.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3150.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.075949367088608, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 10.746268656716419, "Prior_5v5_Min": 14.31875, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.5927662521003246, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0510018214936248, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.382352941176471, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0510018214936248, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9180727421999328, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.6054617319439455, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 18.99736147757256, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021063", "date": "20260316", "team": "DET", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 20.583333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2025020477", "date": "20251210", "team": "DET", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 18.666666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2024020834", "date": "20250201", "team": "DET", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 18.35 }, { "gameId": "2024020350", "date": "20241127", "team": "DET", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 20.066666666666666 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Reviewed October22 projected lineup and coach reports", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 193, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 57, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482445", "goalieName": "Devin Cooley", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8482078", "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 2, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020477", "date": "20251210", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482445", "goalieName": "Devin Cooley", "opponent": "DET", "games": 1, "availableGames": 1, "shotsAgainst": 29.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "savePct": 0.8620689655172413, "gaa": 4.1248925809223715, "gsax": -1.0219999999999998, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020477", "date": "20251210", "goalieTeam": "CGY", "opponent": "DET", "shotsAgainst": 29.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3491.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.978 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 2.822242326279345, "adjustedSOG": 2.822242326279345, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 2.8798391084483113, "adjustedSOG": 2.822242326279345, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.13383612662942274, "goalHistoryGoals": 53.0, "goalHistoryShots": 392.0, "goalExpected": 0.38542651159065205, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.38542651159065205, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.31983952199630367, "goalProbability": 0.31983952199630367, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1284737430167598, "modelSOG": 2.822242326279345, "historyGames": 171, "seasonGames": { "2024": 82, "2025": 80, "2026": 9 }, "historyGoals": 53.0, "historyShots": 392.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.13520408163265307, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.13383612662942274, "goalieFactor": 1.0263021756310153, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 66.49409599082463, "btb": { "id": "8482078", "name": "Lucas Raymond", "score": 66.49409599082463, "components": { "Goal model": 93.72093023255815, "SOG model": 92.79069767441861, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 92.32558139534883, "Goalie": 71.32352941176471, "Team H2H": 44.8153674002238, "Goalie H2H": 50.23158869847151 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": 1, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 20 } }, { "id": "8484158", "name": "Easton Cowan", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "EDM", "position": "R", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 2.090909090909091, "priorSOG": 1.4090909090909092, "currentTOI": 14.981818181818182, "currentFiveTOI": 13.036363636363637, "ppShare": 0.21155582305145954, "rate": 1.3982080151749807, "fifty": 1.5755495135405642, "inputs": { "Player": "Easton Cowan", "Player_ID": "8484158", "Team": "TOR", "Opponent": "EDM", "Position": "R", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.2597596255774992, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.4417392936142424, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 11, "Prior_GP": 66, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 7.949790794979079, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.615004935834156, "Current_PP_SOG60": 10.241820768136558, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 5.430774388199799, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 12.962575757575756, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 13.036363636363637, "Current_PP_Share": 0.21155582305145954, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.40489342923411137, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 703.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3323.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 6, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.3053872053872055, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 1.1605477105846074, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.9108297337909135, "Other_State_SOG": 0.0590909090909091, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9716922687020597, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.4090909090909092, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/toronto-maple-leafs/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:48.291057+00:00", "priorGP": 66, "currentTotalSOG": 23.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.0651515151515152, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.09 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 2.334, "currentIXG": 0.2121818181818182, "priorTOI": 14.71111111111111, "priorPPTOI": 1.5065656565656567, "deploymentChange": 0.270707070707072, "ppTOIChange": -0.4414141414141415, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020499", "date": "20251213", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 12.933333333333334 } ], "h2hGames": 1, "h2hAvailableGames": 1, "h2hSOG": 2.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "EDM", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 239.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 26.555555555555557, "mostAllowedRank": 18, "fiveSogAllowed60": 25.09786377362711, "pkSogAllowed60": 57.79388917659244, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 40.111111111111114, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 74.0, "C": 64.0, "L": 57.0, "R": 44.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.111111111111111, "L": 6.333333333333333, "R": 4.888888888888889, "D": 8.222222222222221 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 28.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 24.5, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 26.555555555555557, "oppPosSogAllowed": 4.888888888888889, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8477465", "team": "EDM", "name": "Tristan Jarry", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 3, "savePct": 0.8732394366197183, "gaa": 2.974387221151198, "gsax": -2.739, "goalsAllowed": 9.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 6.261, "shotsAgainst": 71.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0280169850571896, "factor": 1.0280169850571896, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-23T18:50:20.460Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.12893351952410723, "goalHistoryGoals": 15.0, "goalHistoryShots": 116.0, "goalExpected": 0.2530425290696606, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.26013201782543877, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.22356513993070026, "goalProbability": 0.2290502000311725, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.5485060100472228, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.9625814140778826, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 7.949790794979079, "Current_PP_SOG60": 10.241820768136558, "Current_5v5_Min": 13.036363636363637, "Current_PP_Share": 0.21155582305145954, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.3053872053872055, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.9108297337909135, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.18181818181818182, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9913228889134689, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0841268017286898, "Position_Factor": 0.9918962386417378, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 703.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3323.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.615004935834156, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 5.430774388199799, "Prior_5v5_Min": 12.79040404040404, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.40489342923411137, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9565717572620075, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.382352941176471, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9565717572620075, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0841268017286898, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 7.949790794979079, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 10.241820768136558, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 2.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020499", "date": "20251213", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 12.933333333333334 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 119, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 16, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477465", "goalieName": "Tristan Jarry", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8484158", "goals": 1, "sog": 2, "shootingPct": 0.5, "gamesWithAttempts": 2, "recordedAttempts": 3, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020499", "date": "20251213", "season": 2025, "goals": 1, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2 }, { "gameId": "2025020396", "date": "20251129", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 1 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477465", "goalieName": "Tristan Jarry", "opponent": "TOR", "games": 5, "availableGames": 13, "shotsAgainst": 102.0, "goalsAgainst": 16.0, "savePct": 0.8431372549019608, "gaa": 4.100811618966254, "gsax": -2.944, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020499", "date": "20251213", "goalieTeam": "EDM", "opponent": "TOR", "shotsAgainst": 28.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.854 }, { "gameId": "2025020396", "date": "20251129", "goalieTeam": "PIT", "opponent": "TOR", "shotsAgainst": 13.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 2107.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.626 }, { "gameId": "2025020199", "date": "20251103", "goalieTeam": "PIT", "opponent": "TOR", "shotsAgainst": 20.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3452.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.296 }, { "gameId": "2024020433", "date": "20241207", "goalieTeam": "PIT", "opponent": "TOR", "shotsAgainst": 27.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3571.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.846 }, { "gameId": "2023020466", "date": "20231216", "goalieTeam": "PIT", "opponent": "TOR", "shotsAgainst": 14.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 1316.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.434 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.9625814140778826, "adjustedSOG": 1.9625814140778826, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 2.0026340959978395, "adjustedSOG": 1.9625814140778826, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.12893351952410723, "goalHistoryGoals": 15.0, "goalHistoryShots": 116.0, "goalExpected": 0.2582066623159803, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.2654408345157539, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.22756441771568522, "goalProbability": 0.23313218635102748, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.5567768635342252 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1284964021720716, "modelSOG": 1.9625814140778826, "historyGames": 77, "seasonGames": { "2025": 66, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 15.0, "historyShots": 116.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.12931034482758622, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.12893351952410723, "goalieFactor": 1.0280169850571896, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 63.2349532645265, "btb": { "id": "8484158", "name": "Easton Cowan", "score": 63.2349532645265, "components": { "Goal model": 77.90697674418605, "SOG model": 75.11627906976744, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 66.74418604651163, "Goalie": 92.20588235294117, "Team H2H": 52.43294564443389, "Goalie H2H": 51.37795275590551 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 1, "goalieH2HShots": 2, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 49 } }, { "id": "8484409", "name": "Hoyt Stanley", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "NYR", "position": "D", "currentGP": 4, "currentSOG": 0.25, "priorSOG": null, "currentTOI": 10.916666666666666, "currentFiveTOI": 10.204166666666667, "ppShare": 0.001544004117344313, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/ottawa-senators/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:48.292508+00:00", "priorGP": null, "currentTotalSOG": 1.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.0125, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.25 SOG/game in 4 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 4 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.081, "currentIXG": 0.02025, "priorTOI": null, "priorPPTOI": null, "deploymentChange": null, "ppTOIChange": null, "h2hLog": [], "h2hGames": 0, "h2hAvailableGames": 0, "h2hSOG": null, "opponentDefense": { "team": "NYR", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 283.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 25.727272727272727, "mostAllowedRank": 23, "fiveSogAllowed60": 24.897512126427788, "pkSogAllowed60": 40.17358958462492, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 39.81818181818182, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 106.0, "D": 82.0, "R": 57.0, "L": 38.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.636363636363637, "L": 3.4545454545454546, "R": 5.181818181818182, "D": 7.454545454545454 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 27.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.4, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 25.727272727272727, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.454545454545454, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8482193", "team": "NYR", "name": "Dylan Garand", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.9285714285714286, "gaa": 1.846928781306842, "gsax": 4.030999999999999, "goalsAllowed": 11.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 15.030999999999999, "shotsAgainst": 154.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9674872583533348, "factor": 0.9674872583533348, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T15:37:42.216Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.05710306565937804, "goalHistoryGoals": 0.0, "goalHistoryShots": 1.0, "goalExpected": 0.014385840533108438, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.013918117416485359, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.014282858747144004, "goalProbability": 0.013821708216753735, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.04611505303902686, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 4, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 0.25192763938315543, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 1.4699877501020824, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 10.204166666666667, "Current_PP_Share": 0.001544004117344313, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 6.001439393939394, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.009266247134234783, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9864268368728425, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9197863814450764, "Position_Factor": 1.0097164911259575, "Input_GP": 4, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 3.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1943.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": null, "Prior_PP_SOG60": null, "Prior_5v5_Min": null, "Prior_PP_Share": null, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0077105575326217, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.34640522875817, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0077105575326217, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9197863814450764, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 1.4699877501020824, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "lineupReviewedAt": "2026-10-22T12:25:32.333917+00:00", "lineupReviewNote": "Reported forward, defense and PP chart reviewed October22; matches existing assignments. Final dressing unconfirmed. Dated statistical inputs now include October21.", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 1, "playerPriorWeight": 0, "currentSeasonOnly": true }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 1, "playerPriorWeight": 0, "currentSeasonOnly": true }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482193", "goalieName": "Dylan Garand", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8484409", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482193", "goalieName": "Dylan Garand", "opponent": "OTT", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "No appearance found in the supplied historical files; this does not establish that the goalie has never faced the team." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.25192763938315543, "adjustedSOG": 0.25192763938315543, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.25192763938315543, "adjustedSOG": 0.25192763938315543, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.05710306565937804, "goalHistoryGoals": 0.0, "goalHistoryShots": 1.0, "goalExpected": 0.014385840533108438, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.013918117416485359, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.014282858747144004, "goalProbability": 0.013821708216753735, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.04611505303902686 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05767409631597182, "modelSOG": 0.25192763938315543, "historyGames": 4, "seasonGames": { "2026": 4 }, "historyGoals": 0.0, "historyShots": 1.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.0, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.05710306565937804, "goalieFactor": 0.9674872583533348, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8479353", "name": "Brett Howden", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "CBJ", "position": "L", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 1.6363636363636365, "priorSOG": 1.1379310344827587, "currentTOI": 15.57878787878788, "currentFiveTOI": 14.248484848484848, "ppShare": 0.005050505050505051, "rate": 1.2056947130034723, "fifty": 1.3072199152838042, "inputs": { "Player": "Brett Howden", "Player_ID": "8479353", "Team": "VGK", "Opponent": "CBJ", "Position": "C", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.3118313352519755, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.4127444374306333, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 11, "Prior_GP": 58, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.7422373458102935, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.482689613768261, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 9.612817089452603, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 13.85092215256008, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 14.248484848484848, "Current_PP_Share": 0.005050505050505051, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.1414019648652332, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 19.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3762.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 6, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.392708333333333, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.24782699675491557, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.027235900673400676, "Other_State_SOG": 0.08934169278996865, "Environment_Proxy": 1.0241190783267258, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.1379310344827587, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/vegas-golden-knights/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:48.312513+00:00", "priorGP": 58, "currentTotalSOG": 18.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.028787878787878786, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.64 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 2.775, "currentIXG": 0.25227272727272726, "priorTOI": 14.893390804597702, "priorPPTOI": 0.6456896551724138, "deploymentChange": 0.6853970741901776, "ppTOIChange": -0.616901776384535, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020692", "date": "20260108", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 11.066666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020502", "date": "20251213", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 13.166666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024021045", "date": "20250313", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 13.55 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 1.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "CBJ", "games": 8, "sogAllowedTotal": 222.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.75, "mostAllowedRank": 13, "fiveSogAllowed60": 26.021128266541208, "pkSogAllowed60": 45.718967636214664, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 43.125, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 66.0, "D": 61.0, "R": 49.0, "L": 46.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 8.25, "L": 5.75, "R": 6.125, "D": 7.625 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 28.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.666666666666668, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.75, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.75, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8475660", "team": "CBJ", "name": "Cam Talbot", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 4, "savePct": 0.8674698795180723, "gaa": 3.3959351685104195, "gsax": -0.8840000000000003, "goalsAllowed": 11.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 10.116, "shotsAgainst": 83.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0106708091071457, "factor": 1.0106708091071457, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T15:32:32.146Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.16776338836551413, "goalHistoryGoals": 39.0, "goalHistoryShots": 209.0, "goalExpected": 0.2825721353615392, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.2855874086769807, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.2461577386861027, "goalProbability": 0.24842735566335178, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.22696169772490893, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.6843492380225757, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.7422373458102935, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 14.248484848484848, "Current_PP_Share": 0.005050505050505051, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.392708333333333, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.027235900673400676, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.2727272727272727, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0080456056426796, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9827600403123256, "Position_Factor": 1.0127584007506538, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 19.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3762.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.482689613768261, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 9.612817089452603, "Prior_5v5_Min": 12.923275862068964, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.1414019648652332, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0603973889964853, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.062091503267974, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0603973889964853, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9827600403123256, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.7422373458102935, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020692", "date": "20260108", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 11.066666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020502", "date": "20251213", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 13.166666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024021045", "date": "20250313", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 13.55 }, { "gameId": "2024020820", "date": "20250130", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 14.1 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 90, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 5, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475660", "goalieName": "Cam Talbot", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8479353", "goals": 0, "sog": 5, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 4, "recordedAttempts": 7, "log": [ { "gameId": "2024021115", "date": "20250322", "season": 2024, "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2023020544", "date": "20231228", "season": 2023, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 3 }, { "gameId": "2023020125", "date": "20231028", "season": 2023, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2 }, { "gameId": "2022020315", "date": "20221123", "season": 2022, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475660", "goalieName": "Cam Talbot", "opponent": "VGK", "games": 5, "availableGames": 22, "shotsAgainst": 160.0, "goalsAgainst": 16.0, "savePct": 0.9, "gaa": 3.176704169424222, "gsax": 0.6329999999999996, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020970", "date": "20260304", "goalieTeam": "DET", "opponent": "VGK", "shotsAgainst": 25.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3728.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.397 }, { "gameId": "2024021115", "date": "20250322", "goalieTeam": "DET", "opponent": "VGK", "shotsAgainst": 35.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3491.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.784 }, { "gameId": "2023020544", "date": "20231228", "goalieTeam": "LAK", "opponent": "VGK", "shotsAgainst": 32.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3478.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.46 }, { "gameId": "2023020192", "date": "20231108", "goalieTeam": "LAK", "opponent": "VGK", "shotsAgainst": 38.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.55 }, { "gameId": "2023020125", "date": "20231028", "goalieTeam": "LAK", "opponent": "VGK", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3835.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.442 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.6843492380225757, "adjustedSOG": 1.6843492380225757, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.7187237122679344, "adjustedSOG": 1.6843492380225757, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.16776338836551413, "goalHistoryGoals": 39.0, "goalHistoryShots": 209.0, "goalExpected": 0.28833891363422365, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.2914157231397762, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.2504924691321226, "goalProbability": 0.2527950169605859, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.23025478284633416 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1283888700494387, "modelSOG": 1.6843492380225757, "historyGames": 149, "seasonGames": { "2024": 80, "2025": 58, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 39.0, "historyShots": 209.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.18660287081339713, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.16776338836551413, "goalieFactor": 1.0106708091071457, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 55.50632777142363, "btb": { "id": "8479353", "name": "Brett Howden", "score": 55.50632777142363, "components": { "Goal model": 82.55813953488372, "SOG model": 63.48837209302326, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 76.27906976744185, "Goalie": 13.088235294117647, "Team H2H": 47.500932487877655, "Goalie H2H": 47.58410880458125 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": 5, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 141 } }, { "id": "8474600", "name": "Roman Josi", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "PIT", "position": "D", "currentGP": 8, "currentSOG": 2.375, "priorSOG": 2.661764705882353, "currentTOI": 25.545833333333334, "currentFiveTOI": 18.522916666666667, "ppShare": 0.7429004165088982, "rate": 2.731547030299469, "fifty": 2.3711224051789985, "inputs": { "Player": "Roman Josi", "Player_ID": "8474600", "Team": "NSH", "Opponent": "PIT", "Position": "D", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 2.325119328301542, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.900938386245735, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 8, "Prior_GP": 68, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.2392306827128556, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.474760383386582, "Current_PP_SOG60": 5.504587155963303, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 10.267786404690224, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 18.7197181372549, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 18.522916666666667, "Current_PP_Share": 0.7429004165088982, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.766134810780978, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1962.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2641.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 5, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.906041666666667, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 3.6788970694962515, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 3.644700397576676, "Other_State_SOG": 0.4441176470588236, "Environment_Proxy": 1.0227478110844896, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 2.661764705882353, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/nashville-predators/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:48.332984+00:00", "priorGP": 68, "currentTotalSOG": 19.0, "currentPPTOI": 4.0875, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.38 SOG/game in 8 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 8 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.443, "currentIXG": 0.180375, "priorTOI": 24.877450980392158, "priorPPTOI": 3.0936274509803923, "deploymentChange": 0.6683823529411761, "ppTOIChange": 0.9938725490196081, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2024020830", "date": "20250201", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "PIT", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 9.0, "toi": 23.1 } ], "h2hGames": 1, "h2hAvailableGames": 1, "h2hSOG": 3.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "PIT", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 279.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.9, "mostAllowedRank": 12, "fiveSogAllowed60": 26.122338261223383, "pkSogAllowed60": 50.11600928074246, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 42.4, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 55.0, "L": 47.0, "D": 70.0, "C": 107.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.7, "L": 4.7, "R": 5.5, "D": 7.0 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 25.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 3, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 28.333333333333332, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.9, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.0, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8481668", "team": "PIT", "name": "Arturs Silovs", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 6, "savePct": 0.8662420382165605, "gaa": 3.5131744040150563, "gsax": -1.0760000000000005, "goalsAllowed": 21.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 19.924, "shotsAgainst": 157.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0136052553954562, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Likely starter per Daily Faceoff; no Model Goal adjustment until confirmed.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T15:01:09.604Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.06391271726250537, "goalHistoryGoals": 23.0, "goalHistoryShots": 350.0, "goalExpected": 0.14525748768160485, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.14525748768160485, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.1352004108010609, "goalProbability": 0.1352004108010609, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 8, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 2.272747802053171, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.2392306827128556, "Current_PP_SOG60": 5.504587155963303, "Current_5v5_Min": 18.522916666666667, "Current_PP_Share": 0.7429004165088982, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.906041666666667, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 3.644700397576676, "Remaining_State_SOG": 1.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.011083778612368, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0249142728068137, "Position_Factor": 0.9912682240844909, "Input_GP": 8, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1962.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2641.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.474760383386582, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 10.267786404690224, "Prior_5v5_Min": 19.17892156862745, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.766134810780978, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9764234875444839, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.34640522875817, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9764234875444839, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0249142728068137, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 3.2392306827128556, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 5.504587155963303, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 3.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. 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Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.549, "currentIXG": 0.15489999999999998, "priorTOI": 13.874545454545455, "priorPPTOI": 0.04181818181818182, "deploymentChange": -0.9062121212121212, "ppTOIChange": -0.031818181818181815, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020296", "date": "20251116", "team": "PIT", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 14.2 }, { "gameId": "2025020281", "date": "20251114", "team": "PIT", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 13.133333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020830", "date": "20250201", "team": "PIT", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 13.7 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 1.6666666666666667, "opponentDefense": { "team": "NSH", "games": 8, "sogAllowedTotal": 233.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 29.125, "mostAllowedRank": 8, "fiveSogAllowed60": 26.902173913043477, "pkSogAllowed60": 37.776914108045084, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 45.125, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 82.0, "L": 44.0, "D": 67.0, "R": 40.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.25, "L": 5.5, "R": 5.0, "D": 8.375 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 27.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 3, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 30.0, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 29.125, "oppPosSogAllowed": 10.25, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8477424", "team": "NSH", "name": "Juuse Saros", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.9061032863849765, "gaa": 2.8192176670973805, "gsax": 1.6679999999999993, "goalsAllowed": 20.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 21.668, "shotsAgainst": 213.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9906396066739361, "factor": 0.9906396066739361, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T15:56:16.281Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.14414362689286858, "goalHistoryGoals": 18.0, "goalHistoryShots": 114.0, "goalExpected": 0.1940016163980104, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.19218568496263286, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.17634342708934486, "goalProbability": 0.17484636435639603, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.1497062732948834, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.3458910433979687, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 6.857142857142857, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 10.5, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0020408163265306124, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.130208333333334, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.010469812925170071, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.1, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0235094259979116, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9053307495740243, "Position_Factor": 1.001731136817271, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 6.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2940.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.130019120458891, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 11.093939393939394, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.009493081526745223, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0382425361649739, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.437908496732026, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0382425361649739, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9053307495740243, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 6.857142857142857, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020296", "date": "20251116", "team": "PIT", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 14.2 }, { "gameId": "2025020281", "date": "20251114", "team": "PIT", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 13.133333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020830", "date": "20250201", "team": "PIT", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 13.7 }, { "gameId": "2024020515", "date": "20241219", "team": "PIT", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 12.5 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-19T20:27:28.451Z", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 69, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477424", "goalieName": "Juuse Saros", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8481481", "goals": 0, "sog": 5, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 6, "recordedAttempts": 9, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020296", "date": "20251116", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 3 }, { "gameId": "2025020281", "date": "20251114", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2024020830", "date": "20250201", "season": 2024, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2 }, { "gameId": "2023020899", "date": "20240222", "season": 2023, "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2021020610", "date": "20220106", "season": 2021, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2021020047", "date": "20211019", "season": 2021, "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 1 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477424", "goalieName": "Juuse Saros", "opponent": "PIT", "games": 5, "availableGames": 13, "shotsAgainst": 131.0, "goalsAgainst": 15.0, "savePct": 0.8854961832061069, "gaa": 3.034219250435467, "gsax": -2.5649999999999995, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020296", "date": "20251116", "goalieTeam": "NSH", "opponent": "PIT", "shotsAgainst": 21.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3562.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.064 }, { "gameId": "2025020281", "date": "20251114", "goalieTeam": "NSH", "opponent": "PIT", "shotsAgainst": 17.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3637.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.622 }, { "gameId": "2024020830", "date": "20250201", "goalieTeam": "NSH", "opponent": "PIT", "shotsAgainst": 35.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3527.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.258 }, { "gameId": "2024020515", "date": "20241219", "goalieTeam": "NSH", "opponent": "PIT", "shotsAgainst": 20.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3657.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.863 }, { "gameId": "2023021289", "date": "20240415", "goalieTeam": "NSH", "opponent": "PIT", "shotsAgainst": 38.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3414.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.628 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.3458910433979687, "adjustedSOG": 1.3458910433979687, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.3458910433979687, "adjustedSOG": 1.3458910433979687, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.14414362689286858, "goalHistoryGoals": 18.0, "goalHistoryShots": 114.0, "goalExpected": 0.1940016163980104, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.19218568496263286, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.17634342708934486, "goalProbability": 0.17484636435639603, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.1497062732948834 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12846736155073873, "modelSOG": 1.3458910433979687, "historyGames": 124, "seasonGames": { "2024": 59, "2025": 55, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 18.0, "historyShots": 114.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.15789473684210525, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.14414362689286858, "goalieFactor": 0.9906396066739361, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 56.67045686346363, "btb": { "id": "8481481", "name": "Blake Lizotte", "score": 56.67045686346363, "components": { "Goal model": 65.81395348837209, "SOG model": 49.53488372093023, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 48.372093023255815, "Goalie": 81.91176470588235, "Team H2H": 54.960835509138384, "Goalie H2H": 47.58410880458125 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": 5, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 128 } }, { "id": "8482896", "name": "Tyson Kozak", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "WSH", "position": "C", "currentGP": 2, "currentSOG": 0.0, "priorSOG": 0.6521739130434783, "currentTOI": 9.15, "currentFiveTOI": 8.358333333333333, "ppShare": 0.0013477088948787063, "rate": 0.5784633609510749, "fifty": 0.3505783286365203, "inputs": { "Player": "Tyson Kozak", "Player_ID": "8482896", "Team": "BUF", "Opponent": "WSH", "Position": "C", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 0.5258206343307218, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 0.31470151268310126, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 2, "Prior_GP": 46, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 0.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.9401678219627874, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 8.830181159420288, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 8.358333333333333, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0013477088948787063, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.011566054469054858, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 742.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 1, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.493148148148148, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.024242430440522815, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.007403164620145752, "Other_State_SOG": 0.0, "Environment_Proxy": 1.0834850655013406, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 0.6521739130434783, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/buffalo-sabres/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:48.374801+00:00", "priorGP": 46, "currentTotalSOG": 0.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.008333333333333333, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.00 SOG/game in 2 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 2 games. 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MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021213", "date": "20260404", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 12.25 }, { "gameId": "2024021171", "date": "20250330", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 12.416666666666666 } ], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff latest reported chart; October 21 final lineup pending", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 41, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. 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Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479292", "goalieName": "Charlie Lindgren", "opponent": "BUF", "games": 5, "availableGames": 8, "shotsAgainst": 128.0, "goalsAgainst": 16.0, "savePct": 0.875, "gaa": 3.275891486094523, "gsax": -2.283, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021028", "date": "20260312", "goalieTeam": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.161 }, { "gameId": "2025020186", "date": "20251101", "goalieTeam": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3892.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.677 }, { "gameId": "2024020637", "date": "20250106", "goalieTeam": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "shotsAgainst": 27.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3900.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.647 }, { "gameId": "2023021255", "date": "20240411", "goalieTeam": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "shotsAgainst": 16.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3458.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.149 }, { "gameId": "2023021189", "date": "20240402", "goalieTeam": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "shotsAgainst": 31.0, "goalsAgainst": 6.0, "seconds": 2733.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.083 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.0, "adjustedSOG": 0.0, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.0, "adjustedSOG": 0.0, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. 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MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2026020105", "date": "20261013", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 15.883333333333333 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Reviewed October22 projected lineup and coach reports", "ppAssignmentSourceDate": "2026-10-13T18:05:17.352Z", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 62, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. 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Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480280", "goalieName": "Jeremy Swayman", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8484994", "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 3, "log": [ { "gameId": "2026020105", "date": "20261013", "season": 2026, "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 3 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480280", "goalieName": "Jeremy Swayman", "opponent": "SJS", "games": 5, "availableGames": 6, "shotsAgainst": 123.0, "goalsAgainst": 9.0, "savePct": 0.926829268292683, "gaa": 2.2632020117351215, "gsax": 2.58, "log": [ { "gameId": "2026020105", "date": "20261013", "goalieTeam": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "shotsAgainst": 38.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.146 }, { "gameId": "2025021027", "date": "20260312", "goalieTeam": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "shotsAgainst": 28.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3406.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.91 }, { "gameId": "2025020351", "date": "20251123", "goalieTeam": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3588.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.577 }, { "gameId": "2023020340", "date": "20231130", "goalieTeam": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "shotsAgainst": 26.0, "goalsAgainst": 0.0, "seconds": 3574.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.886 }, { "gameId": "2022020748", "date": "20230122", "goalieTeam": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "shotsAgainst": 1.0, "goalsAgainst": 0.0, "seconds": 148.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 0.061 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.225, "adjustedSOG": 1.225, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.25, "adjustedSOG": 1.225, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.15188820779055648, "goalHistoryGoals": 11.0, "goalHistoryShots": 57.0, "goalExpected": 0.1898602597381956, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.17869889813645448, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.17292529849622637, "goalProbability": 0.16364230965307486, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.9282988843151513 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12846448623117368, "modelSOG": 1.225, "historyGames": 38, "seasonGames": { "2025": 28, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 11.0, "historyShots": 57.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.19298245614035087, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.15188820779055648, "goalieFactor": 0.9412127550171275, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 48.65353429392073, "btb": { "id": "8484994", "name": "Igor Chernyshov", "score": 48.65353429392073, "components": { "Goal model": 63.48837209302326, "SOG model": 42.325581395348834, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 27.674418604651162, "Goalie": 34.26470588235294, "Team H2H": 51.36482316638975, "Goalie H2H": 49.40944881889764 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 1, "goalieH2HShots": 3, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 218 } }, { "id": "8484806", "name": "Sam Dickinson", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "BOS", "position": "D", "currentGP": 8, "currentSOG": 0.75, "priorSOG": 1, "currentTOI": 18.566666666666666, "currentFiveTOI": 16.491666666666667, "ppShare": 0.008218154650728428, "rate": 1.0363253561083625, "fifty": 0.9573741123714691, "inputs": { "Player": "Sam Dickinson", "Player_ID": "8484806", "Team": "SJS", "Opponent": "BOS", "Position": "D", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 0.9268759896955587, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 0.717486580571914, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 8, "Prior_GP": 72, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.7286508337544215, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.732333165622284, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 2.7820710973724885, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 16.098958333333332, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 16.491666666666667, "Current_PP_Share": 0.008218154650728428, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.05960646743766119, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 22.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2677.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 3, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.0425, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.11917771499473064, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.0414400448262981, "Other_State_SOG": 0.0375, "Environment_Proxy": 1.0253180054689388, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:48.419058+00:00", "priorGP": 72, "currentTotalSOG": 6.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.04583333333333333, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.75 SOG/game in 8 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 8 games. 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MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2026020105", "date": "20261013", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 19.95 }, { "gameId": "2025021027", "date": "20260312", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 20.1 }, { "gameId": "2025020351", "date": "20251123", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 13.766666666666667 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Reviewed October22 projected lineup and coach reports", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 117, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. 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Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480280", "goalieName": "Jeremy Swayman", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8484806", "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 2, "recordedAttempts": 4, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021027", "date": "20260312", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2 }, { "gameId": "2025020351", "date": "20251123", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480280", "goalieName": "Jeremy Swayman", "opponent": "SJS", "games": 5, "availableGames": 6, "shotsAgainst": 123.0, "goalsAgainst": 9.0, "savePct": 0.926829268292683, "gaa": 2.2632020117351215, "gsax": 2.58, "log": [ { "gameId": "2026020105", "date": "20261013", "goalieTeam": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "shotsAgainst": 38.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.146 }, { "gameId": "2025021027", "date": "20260312", "goalieTeam": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "shotsAgainst": 28.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3406.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.91 }, { "gameId": "2025020351", "date": "20251123", "goalieTeam": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3588.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.577 }, { "gameId": "2023020340", "date": "20231130", "goalieTeam": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "shotsAgainst": 26.0, "goalsAgainst": 0.0, "seconds": 3574.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.886 }, { "gameId": "2022020748", "date": "20230122", "goalieTeam": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "shotsAgainst": 1.0, "goalsAgainst": 0.0, "seconds": 148.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 0.061 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.7076663701067616, "adjustedSOG": 0.7076663701067616, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.722108540925267, "adjustedSOG": 0.7076663701067616, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.038063884118196695, "goalHistoryGoals": 1.0, "goalHistoryShots": 78.0, "goalExpected": 0.027486255822539458, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.025870414567837927, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.02711194599237252, "goalProbability": 0.025538642576535077, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.15733034158374426 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.057753713730390115, "modelSOG": 0.7076663701067616, "historyGames": 80, "seasonGames": { "2025": 72, "2026": 8 }, "historyGoals": 1.0, "historyShots": 78.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.01282051282051282, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.038063884118196695, "goalieFactor": 0.9412127550171275, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 33.423693025355114, "btb": { "id": "8484806", "name": "Sam Dickinson", "score": 33.423693025355114, "components": { "Goal model": 5.5813953488372094, "SOG model": 13.255813953488373, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 10.0, "Goalie": 34.26470588235294, "Team H2H": 48.40329383410323, "Goalie H2H": 49.57658594562472 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 3, "goalieH2HShots": 3, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 420 } }, { "id": "8478046", "name": "Danton Heinen", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "VGK", "position": "L", "currentGP": 7, "currentSOG": 0.8571428571428571, "priorSOG": 0.9565217391304348, "currentTOI": 10.828571428571427, "currentFiveTOI": 9.683333333333334, "ppShare": 0.006907545164718385, "rate": 0.8301210135241663, "fifty": 0.8086656464839734, "inputs": { "Player": "Danton Heinen", "Player_ID": "8478046", "Team": "CBJ", "Opponent": "VGK", "Position": "L", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 0.8875748432555803, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.0500557883000394, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 7, "Prior_GP": 46, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.311040078682075, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.179336188436831, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 10.746268656716419, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 10.027028985507247, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 9.683333333333334, "Current_PP_Share": 0.006907545164718385, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.028021862561281898, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 13.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1882.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 4, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.052367424242425, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.05366080260787278, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.027991911006988057, "Other_State_SOG": 0.0, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9217353117054976, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 0.9565217391304348, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:48.445304+00:00", "priorGP": 46, "currentTotalSOG": 6.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.030952380952380953, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.86 SOG/game in 7 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 7 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.044, "currentIXG": 0.14914285714285716, "priorTOI": 11.339855072463768, "priorPPTOI": 0.1213768115942029, "deploymentChange": -0.5112836438923409, "ppTOIChange": -0.09042443064182194, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2024021028", "date": "20250311", "team": "PIT", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 12.433333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024021001", "date": "20250307", "team": "PIT", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 13.45 }, { "gameId": "2024020519", "date": "20241219", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 15.133333333333333 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 3, "h2hSOG": 0.6666666666666666, "opponentDefense": { "team": "VGK", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 275.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 25.0, "mostAllowedRank": 27, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.585792714368043, "pkSogAllowed60": 47.03517587939699, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 38.72727272727273, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 59.0, "C": 80.0, "R": 61.0, "L": 75.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.2727272727272725, "L": 6.818181818181818, "R": 5.545454545454546, "D": 5.363636363636363 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 26.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 25.75, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 25.0, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.818181818181818, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8479394", "team": "VGK", "name": "Carter Hart", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.8876404494382022, "gaa": 2.8716148845371516, "gsax": -1.5090000000000003, "goalsAllowed": 20.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 18.491, "shotsAgainst": 178.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.017200797231895, "factor": 1.017200797231895, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T22:33:02.238Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.12056865395668279, "goalHistoryGoals": 15.0, "goalHistoryShots": 131.0, "goalExpected": 0.11884624461444447, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.12089049476982973, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.11205568351259952, "goalProbability": 0.11386900974185481, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.18133262292552854, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 7, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 0.9857142857142858, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.311040078682075, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 9.683333333333334, "Current_PP_Share": 0.006907545164718385, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.052367424242425, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.027991911006988057, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9589471960166247, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9956874166464801, "Position_Factor": 1.05, "Input_GP": 7, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 13.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1882.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.179336188436831, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 10.746268656716419, "Prior_5v5_Min": 10.828985507246376, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.028021862561281898, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.15, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.062091503267974, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9956874166464801, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.311040078682075, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 0.6666666666666666 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2024021028", "date": "20250311", "team": "PIT", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 12.433333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024021001", "date": "20250307", "team": "PIT", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 13.45 }, { "gameId": "2024020519", "date": "20241219", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 15.133333333333333 } ], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "NHL.com October 20 game-specific projected lineup", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 69, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479394", "goalieName": "Carter Hart", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8478046", "goals": 0, "sog": 8, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 5, "recordedAttempts": 10, "log": [ { "gameId": "2022021039", "date": "20230311", "season": 2022, "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2022020324", "date": "20221125", "season": 2022, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2021020514", "date": "20220215", "season": 2021, "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 3 }, { "gameId": "2021020604", "date": "20220106", "season": 2021, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 3 }, { "gameId": "2021020153", "date": "20211104", "season": 2021, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479394", "goalieName": "Carter Hart", "opponent": "CBJ", "games": 5, "availableGames": 11, "shotsAgainst": 128.0, "goalsAgainst": 11.0, "savePct": 0.9140625, "gaa": 2.6073215696602583, "gsax": 0.11300000000000043, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020692", "date": "20260108", "goalieTeam": "VGK", "opponent": "CBJ", "shotsAgainst": 1.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 504.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 0.415 }, { "gameId": "2025020502", "date": "20251213", "goalieTeam": "VGK", "opponent": "CBJ", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.064 }, { "gameId": "2023020011", "date": "20231012", "goalieTeam": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "shotsAgainst": 33.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.608 }, { "gameId": "2022021287", "date": "20230411", "goalieTeam": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "shotsAgainst": 31.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3884.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.732 }, { "gameId": "2022020510", "date": "20221220", "goalieTeam": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "shotsAgainst": 33.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.294 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.9857142857142858, "adjustedSOG": 0.9857142857142858, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.9857142857142858, "adjustedSOG": 0.9857142857142858, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.12056865395668279, "goalHistoryGoals": 15.0, "goalHistoryShots": 131.0, "goalExpected": 0.11884624461444447, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.11884624461444447, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.11205568351259952, "goalProbability": 0.11205568351259952, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12851359063993723, "modelSOG": 0.9857142857142858, "historyGames": 132, "seasonGames": { "2024": 79, "2025": 46, "2026": 7 }, "historyGoals": 15.0, "historyShots": 131.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.11450381679389313, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.12056865395668279, "goalieFactor": 1.017200797231895, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8482731", "name": "Tyson Hinds", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "PHI", "position": "D", "currentGP": 9, "currentSOG": 1.4444444444444444, "priorSOG": 1.5, "currentTOI": 15.579629629629629, "currentFiveTOI": 14.398148148148149, "ppShare": 0.003630496167809601, "rate": 1.655708711626228, "fifty": 1.6390086019501897, "inputs": { "Player": "Tyson Hinds", "Player_ID": "8482731", "Team": "ANA", "Opponent": "PHI", "Position": "D", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.488472544579929, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.4653848378926835, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 9, "Prior_GP": 6, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 6.019292604501608, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.036892118501957, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 14.551203703703704, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 14.398148148148149, "Current_PP_Share": 0.003630496167809601, "Prior_PP_Share": 0, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 9.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2479.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 5, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.388425925925926, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.01369386177221998, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.019562659674599973, "Other_State_SOG": 0.0, "Environment_Proxy": 1.15, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.5, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/anaheim-ducks/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:48.476595+00:00", "priorGP": 6, "currentTotalSOG": 13.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.016666666666666666, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.44 SOG/game in 9 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 9 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.355, "currentIXG": 0.03944444444444444, "priorTOI": 15.616666666666667, "priorPPTOI": 0, "deploymentChange": -0.03703703703703809, "ppTOIChange": 0.016666666666666666, "h2hLog": [], "h2hGames": 0, "h2hAvailableGames": 0, "h2hSOG": null, "opponentDefense": { "team": "PHI", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 383.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 31.916666666666668, "mostAllowedRank": 2, "fiveSogAllowed60": 31.042564889030356, "pkSogAllowed60": 46.879209699146834, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.75, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 113.0, "C": 130.0, "R": 73.0, "L": 67.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.833333333333334, "L": 5.583333333333333, "R": 6.083333333333333, "D": 9.416666666666666 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 27.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.833333333333332, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 31.916666666666668, "oppPosSogAllowed": 9.416666666666666, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8479361", "team": "PHI", "name": "Joseph Woll", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 6, "savePct": 0.9166666666666666, "gaa": 2.640143007746253, "gsax": 4.5710000000000015, "goalsAllowed": 16.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 20.571, "shotsAgainst": 192.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9655996195755495, "factor": 0.9655996195755495, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T14:50:13.988Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.047296790485635946, "goalHistoryGoals": 0.0, "goalHistoryShots": 22.0, "goalExpected": 0.07699391971167246, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.07434529958322134, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.07410451669912009, "goalProbability": 0.07164892075031762, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.2455595948802472, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 9, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.6278888888888887, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 6.019292604501608, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 14.398148148148149, "Current_PP_Share": 0.003630496167809601, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.388425925925926, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.019562659674599973, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.1165260841882552, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9915761915723407, "Position_Factor": 1.0127905449409682, "Input_GP": 9, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 9.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2479.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.036892118501957, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 14.908333333333333, "Prior_PP_Share": 0, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.15, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.34640522875817, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9915761915723407, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 6.019292604501608, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 12, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. 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Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479361", "goalieName": "Joseph Woll", "opponent": "ANA", "games": 3, "availableGames": 3, "shotsAgainst": 91.0, "goalsAgainst": 7.0, "savePct": 0.9230769230769231, "gaa": 2.6359832635983262, "gsax": 2.575, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021029", "date": "20260312", "goalieTeam": "TOR", "opponent": "ANA", "shotsAgainst": 40.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3567.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.449 }, { "gameId": "2024021176", "date": "20250330", "goalieTeam": "TOR", "opponent": "ANA", "shotsAgainst": 31.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3593.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.338 }, { "gameId": "2024020459", "date": "20241212", "goalieTeam": "TOR", "opponent": "ANA", "shotsAgainst": 20.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 2400.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.788 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.6278888888888887, "adjustedSOG": 1.6278888888888887, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.661111111111111, "adjustedSOG": 1.6278888888888887, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.047296790485635946, "goalHistoryGoals": 0.0, "goalHistoryShots": 22.0, "goalExpected": 0.07856522419558415, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.07586255059512381, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.0755582380051582, "goalProbability": 0.0730563943493325, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.2501843655825689 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05770208439247585, "modelSOG": 1.6278888888888887, "historyGames": 15, "seasonGames": { "2025": 6, "2026": 9 }, "historyGoals": 0.0, "historyShots": 22.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.0, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.047296790485635946, "goalieFactor": 0.9655996195755495, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": 39.78077975376197, "btb": { "id": "8482731", "name": "Tyson Hinds", "score": 39.78077975376197, "components": { "Goal model": 26.976744186046513, "SOG model": 62.093023255813954, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 8.837209302325581, "Goalie": 28.970588235294116, "Team H2H": 50.0, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Team H2H unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 0, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 353 } }, { "id": "8475764", "name": "Cam Fowler", "team": "STL", "opponent": "CAR", "position": "D", "currentGP": 9, "currentSOG": 1.2222222222222223, "priorSOG": 1.1097560975609757, "currentTOI": 21.88888888888889, "currentFiveTOI": 16.224074074074075, "ppShare": 0.5075757575757576, "rate": 0.9870956882025835, "fifty": 0.9713518217451954, "inputs": { "Player": "Cam Fowler", "Player_ID": "8475764", "Team": "STL", "Opponent": "CAR", "Position": "D", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.1446711673439645, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.1166237855901968, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 9, "Prior_GP": 82, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.2872959707795912, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 2.9829104091144485, "Current_PP_SOG60": 2.6865671641791047, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 5.712774398307326, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 16.65532746160795, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 16.224074074074075, "Current_PP_Share": 0.5075757575757576, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.3726114335833178, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1340.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2640.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 5, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.016414141414142, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 2.3430991251034037, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 2.5462102081420266, "Other_State_SOG": 0.08807588075880761, "Environment_Proxy": 0.85, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.1097560975609757, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/st-louis-blues/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:48.503531+00:00", "priorGP": 82, "currentTotalSOG": 11.0, "currentPPTOI": 2.4814814814814814, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.22 SOG/game in 9 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 9 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.593, "currentIXG": 0.06588888888888889, "priorTOI": 21.079268292682926, "priorPPTOI": 1.536991869918699, "deploymentChange": 0.8096205962059635, "ppTOIChange": 0.9444896115627823, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021033", "date": "20260312", "team": "STL", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 19.966666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2025020730", "date": "20260113", "team": "STL", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 24.483333333333334 } ], "h2hGames": 2, "h2hAvailableGames": 2, "h2hSOG": 1.5, "opponentDefense": { "team": "CAR", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 246.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 22.363636363636363, "mostAllowedRank": 31, "fiveSogAllowed60": 21.75191064079953, "pkSogAllowed60": 32.87187039764359, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 33.09090909090909, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 77.0, "R": 66.0, "D": 59.0, "L": 44.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.0, "L": 4.0, "R": 6.0, "D": 5.363636363636363 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 23.0, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 7, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 22.428571428571427, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 22.363636363636363, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.363636363636363, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8481611", "team": "CAR", "name": "Pyotr Kochetkov", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 6, "savePct": 0.8991596638655462, "gaa": 1.9842910293509715, "gsax": 2.2720000000000002, "goalsAllowed": 12.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 14.272, "shotsAgainst": 119.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9828959307519136, "factor": 0.9828959307519136, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T22:32:34.088Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.06469840985413663, "goalHistoryGoals": 13.0, "goalHistoryShots": 190.0, "goalExpected": 0.07002651985179766, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.06882878140705001, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.06763090671209815, "goalProbability": 0.06651350335947934, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.11174033526188121, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 9, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.0823530286087912, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.2872959707795912, "Current_PP_SOG60": 2.6865671641791047, "Current_5v5_Min": 16.224074074074075, "Current_PP_Share": 0.5075757575757576, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.016414141414142, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 2.5462102081420266, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.2222222222222222, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9235603264096603, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.85, "Position_Factor": 0.9854836768055022, "Input_GP": 9, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1340.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2640.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 2.9829104091144485, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 5.712774398307326, "Prior_5v5_Min": 17.661585365853657, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.3726114335833178, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.8586256566683613, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.34640522875817, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.8586256566683613, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.85, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 3.2872959707795912, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 2.6865671641791047, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021033", "date": "20260312", "team": "STL", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 19.966666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2025020730", "date": "20260113", "team": "STL", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 24.483333333333334 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 103, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 12, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481611", "goalieName": "Pyotr Kochetkov", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8475764", "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 3, "log": [ { "gameId": "2022020410", "date": "20221206", "season": 2022, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 3 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481611", "goalieName": "Pyotr Kochetkov", "opponent": "STL", "games": 3, "availableGames": 3, "shotsAgainst": 60.0, "goalsAgainst": 6.0, "savePct": 0.9, "gaa": 2.610587382160986, "gsax": -0.46099999999999985, "log": [ { "gameId": "2024020284", "date": "20241117", "goalieTeam": "CAR", "opponent": "STL", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3598.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.005 }, { "gameId": "2024020084", "date": "20241019", "goalieTeam": "CAR", "opponent": "STL", "shotsAgainst": 19.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3476.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.804 }, { "gameId": "2022020369", "date": "20221201", "goalieTeam": "CAR", "opponent": "STL", "shotsAgainst": 11.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 1200.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 0.73 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.0823530286087912, "adjustedSOG": 1.0823530286087912, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.0823530286087912, "adjustedSOG": 1.0823530286087912, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.06469840985413663, "goalHistoryGoals": 13.0, "goalHistoryShots": 190.0, "goalExpected": 0.07002651985179766, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.07002651985179766, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.06763090671209815, "goalProbability": 0.06763090671209815, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05762538857699624, "modelSOG": 1.0823530286087912, "historyGames": 159, "seasonGames": { "2024": 68, "2025": 82, "2026": 9 }, "historyGoals": 13.0, "historyShots": 190.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.06842105263157895, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.06469840985413663, "goalieFactor": 0.9828959307519136, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 40.63627127296127, "btb": { "id": "8475764", "name": "Cam Fowler", "score": 40.63627127296127, "components": { "Goal model": 23.953488372093023, "SOG model": 35.116279069767444, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 16.511627906976745, "Goalie": 50.14705882352941, "Team H2H": 49.54308093994778, "Goalie H2H": 49.92428831011508 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 2, "goalieH2HShots": 2, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 342 } }, { "id": "8484210", "name": "Gabriel Perreault", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "OTT", "position": "L", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 2.090909090909091, "priorSOG": 1.489795918367347, "currentTOI": 16.342424242424244, "currentFiveTOI": 14.43939393939394, "ppShare": 0.3247782002534854, "rate": 1.5045037723846937, "fifty": 1.702318403567301, "inputs": { "Player": "Gabe Perreault", "Player_ID": "8484210", "Team": "NYR", "Opponent": "OTT", "Position": "R", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.3344130586943308, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.3390588411428186, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 11, "Prior_GP": 49, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 8.310598111227701, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.1960343562927385, "Current_PP_SOG60": 3.5121951219512195, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 8.212147134302823, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 14.42012677798392, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 14.43939393939394, "Current_PP_Share": 0.3247782002534854, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.325552056472766, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1025.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3156.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 7, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.145909090909091, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 1.6724737513396597, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 1.671279093213504, "Other_State_SOG": 0.07346938775510203, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9343896732646498, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.489795918367347, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-york-rangers/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:48.531864+00:00", "priorGP": 49, "currentTotalSOG": 23.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.553030303030303, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.09 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 3.702, "currentIXG": 0.33654545454545454, "priorTOI": 15.98639455782313, "priorPPTOI": 1.1928571428571428, "deploymentChange": 0.35602968460111306, "ppTOIChange": 0.36017316017316015, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021119", "date": "20260323", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 16.233333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020737", "date": "20260114", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 2.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 16.533333333333335 } ], "h2hGames": 2, "h2hAvailableGames": 2, "h2hSOG": 1.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "OTT", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 255.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 25.5, "mostAllowedRank": 25, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.477120373069077, "pkSogAllowed60": 46.82395644283122, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 38.7, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 67.0, "C": 98.0, "R": 48.0, "L": 42.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.8, "L": 4.2, "R": 4.8, "D": 6.7 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 24.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 22.6, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 25.5, "oppPosSogAllowed": 4.2, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8477992", "team": "OTT", "name": "Jonas Johansson", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 0, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "goalsAllowed": null, "xGoalsAgainst": null, "shotsAgainst": null, "scenarioFactor": 1, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; no matching goalie statistics in this snapshot, so the goalie factor remains neutral.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T15:15:50.280Z", "idResolution": "Exact goalie name mapped to one unique MoneyPuck player ID" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.14351756365365725, "goalHistoryGoals": 16.0, "goalHistoryShots": 101.0, "goalExpected": 0.27099134980015854, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.27099134980015854, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.23737690678130646, "goalProbability": 0.23737690678130646, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.8882103548951439, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 8.310598111227701, "Current_PP_SOG60": 3.5121951219512195, "Current_5v5_Min": 14.43939393939394, "Current_PP_Share": 0.3247782002534854, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.145909090909091, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.671279093213504, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9604171757553249, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9920036605974645, "Position_Factor": 0.9857697565791972, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1025.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3156.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.1960343562927385, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 8.212147134302823, "Prior_5v5_Min": 14.375170068027211, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.325552056472766, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.914848289218851, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.062091503267974, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.914848289218851, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9920036605974645, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 8.310598111227701, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 3.5121951219512195, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021119", "date": "20260323", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 16.233333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020737", "date": "20260114", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "OTT", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 2.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 16.533333333333335 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 92, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 9, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477992", "goalieName": "Jonas Johansson", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8484210", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477992", "goalieName": "Jonas Johansson", "opponent": "NYR", "games": 4, "availableGames": 4, "shotsAgainst": 43.0, "goalsAgainst": 6.0, "savePct": 0.8604651162790697, "gaa": 2.615328732292045, "gsax": -1.567, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020391", "date": "20251129", "goalieTeam": "TBL", "opponent": "NYR", "shotsAgainst": 13.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.688 }, { "gameId": "2025020265", "date": "20251112", "goalieTeam": "TBL", "opponent": "NYR", "shotsAgainst": 7.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 993.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 0.748 }, { "gameId": "2024021310", "date": "20250417", "goalieTeam": "TBL", "opponent": "NYR", "shotsAgainst": 22.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3573.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.983 }, { "gameId": "2021020399", "date": "20211208", "goalieTeam": "COL", "opponent": "NYR", "shotsAgainst": 1.0, "goalsAgainst": 0.0, "seconds": 93.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 0.014 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.8882103548951439, "adjustedSOG": 1.8882103548951439, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.9267452600970856, "adjustedSOG": 1.8882103548951439, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.14351756365365725, "goalHistoryGoals": 16.0, "goalHistoryShots": 101.0, "goalExpected": 0.2765217855103659, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.2765217855103659, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.24158290355182271, "goalProbability": 0.24158290355182271, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1284703029438511, "modelSOG": 1.8882103548951439, "historyGames": 65, "seasonGames": { "2024": 5, "2025": 49, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 16.0, "historyShots": 101.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.15841584158415842, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.14351756365365725, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 61.8143026291821, "btb": { "id": "8484210", "name": "Gabriel Perreault", "score": 61.8143026291821, "components": { "Goal model": 80.69767441860465, "SOG model": 72.32558139534883, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 88.37209302325581, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 54.80852915578764, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 2, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 68 } }, { "id": "8485512", "name": "Tim Washe", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "PHI", "position": "C", "currentGP": 9, "currentSOG": 1.0, "priorSOG": 0.8461538461538461, "currentTOI": 15.32037037037037, "currentFiveTOI": 11.227777777777778, "ppShare": 0.004437273093989512, "rate": 1.026631338361251, "fifty": 1.0201356341774757, "inputs": { "Player": "Tim Washe", "Player_ID": "8485512", "Team": "ANA", "Opponent": "PHI", "Position": "C", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 0.9658757521000771, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 0.9661795203900684, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 9, "Prior_GP": 39, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.156358238495794, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.63240971090332, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 10.848418803418802, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 11.227777777777778, "Current_PP_Share": 0.004437273093989512, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.003999007911626105, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 11.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2479.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 5, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.388425925925926, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.02320144953874334, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.023909917380066634, "Other_State_SOG": 0.09145299145299146, "Environment_Proxy": 1.15, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 0.8461538461538461, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/anaheim-ducks/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:48.560025+00:00", "priorGP": 39, "currentTotalSOG": 9.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.02037037037037037, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.00 SOG/game in 9 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 9 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.415, "currentIXG": 0.15722222222222224, "priorTOI": 12.052136752136752, "priorPPTOI": 0.02094017094017094, "deploymentChange": 3.2682336182336176, "ppTOIChange": -0.0005698005698005701, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021082", "date": "20260318", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 7.166666666666667 } ], "h2hGames": 1, "h2hAvailableGames": 1, "h2hSOG": 0.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "PHI", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 383.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 31.916666666666668, "mostAllowedRank": 2, "fiveSogAllowed60": 31.042564889030356, "pkSogAllowed60": 46.879209699146834, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.75, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 113.0, "C": 130.0, "R": 73.0, "L": 67.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.833333333333334, "L": 5.583333333333333, "R": 6.083333333333333, "D": 9.416666666666666 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 27.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.833333333333332, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 31.916666666666668, "oppPosSogAllowed": 10.833333333333334, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8479361", "team": "PHI", "name": "Joseph Woll", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 6, "savePct": 0.9166666666666666, "gaa": 2.640143007746253, "gsax": 4.5710000000000015, "goalsAllowed": 16.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 20.571, "shotsAgainst": 192.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9655996195755495, "factor": 0.9655996195755495, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T14:50:13.988Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.117022208756969, "goalHistoryGoals": 4.0, "goalHistoryShots": 44.0, "goalExpected": 0.12187524637346668, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.1176826915338958, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.11474119914010684, "goalProbability": 0.1110219118603311, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.3719287279775746, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 9, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.0414710820112483, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.156358238495794, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 11.227777777777778, "Current_PP_Share": 0.004437273093989512, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.388425925925926, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.023909917380066634, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.2222222222222222, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.1165260841882552, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9915761915723407, "Position_Factor": 0.9972034521823692, "Input_GP": 9, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 11.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2479.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.63240971090332, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 9.963247863247863, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.003999007911626105, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.080647192143037, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.437908496732026, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.080647192143037, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9915761915723407, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 4.156358238495794, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 0.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021082", "date": "20260318", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 7.166666666666667 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 57, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479361", "goalieName": "Joseph Woll", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8485512", "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 1, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021029", "date": "20260312", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479361", "goalieName": "Joseph Woll", "opponent": "ANA", "games": 3, "availableGames": 3, "shotsAgainst": 91.0, "goalsAgainst": 7.0, "savePct": 0.9230769230769231, "gaa": 2.6359832635983262, "gsax": 2.575, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021029", "date": "20260312", "goalieTeam": "TOR", "opponent": "ANA", "shotsAgainst": 40.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3567.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.449 }, { "gameId": "2024021176", "date": "20250330", "goalieTeam": "TOR", "opponent": "ANA", "shotsAgainst": 31.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3593.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.338 }, { "gameId": "2024020459", "date": "20241212", "goalieTeam": "TOR", "opponent": "ANA", "shotsAgainst": 20.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 2400.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.788 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.0414710820112483, "adjustedSOG": 1.0414710820112483, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.0627255938890288, "adjustedSOG": 1.0414710820112483, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.117022208756969, "goalHistoryGoals": 4.0, "goalHistoryShots": 44.0, "goalExpected": 0.12436249629945578, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.12008437911622019, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.11694032300796425, "goalProbability": 0.11315439768817541, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.3785925319788844 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12851198061003538, "modelSOG": 1.0414710820112483, "historyGames": 50, "seasonGames": { "2024": 2, "2025": 39, "2026": 9 }, "historyGoals": 4.0, "historyShots": 44.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.09090909090909091, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.117022208756969, "goalieFactor": 0.9655996195755495, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": 45.60171571445197, "btb": { "id": "8485512", "name": "Tim Washe", "score": 45.60171571445197, "components": { "Goal model": 43.72093023255814, "SOG model": 32.093023255813954, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 50.0, "Goalie": 28.970588235294116, "Team H2H": 48.88440541182055, "Goalie H2H": 50.23158869847151 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 1, "goalieH2HShots": 1, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 266 } }, { "id": "8482126", "name": "Emil Andrae", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "VGK", "position": "D", "currentGP": 5, "currentSOG": 0.2, "priorSOG": 0.5901639344262295, "currentTOI": 10.55, "currentFiveTOI": 10.55, "ppShare": 0.0, "rate": 0.4204544219491421, "fifty": 0.3230557521460682, "inputs": { "Player": "Emil Andrae", "Player_ID": "8482126", "Team": "CBJ", "Opponent": "VGK", "Position": "D", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 0.4468135256561227, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 0.3839765134698783, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 5, "Prior_GP": 61, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 1.1374407582938388, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 2.0996387718242024, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 10.091100210231254, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 11.741721311475409, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 10.55, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.09156558096965894, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1831.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 3, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.052367424242425, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.1113172132509834, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.0, "Other_State_SOG": 0.014754098360655738, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9217353117054976, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 0.5901639344262295, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:48.588515+00:00", "priorGP": 61, "currentTotalSOG": 1.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.0, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.20 SOG/game in 5 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 5 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.024, "currentIXG": 0.0048000000000000004, "priorTOI": 15.337158469945356, "priorPPTOI": 0.38989071038251366, "deploymentChange": -4.787158469945355, "ppTOIChange": -0.38989071038251366, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020775", "date": "20260119", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 15.083333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020483", "date": "20251211", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 19.483333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020338", "date": "20241125", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 21.483333333333334 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 3, "h2hSOG": 1.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "VGK", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 275.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 25.0, "mostAllowedRank": 27, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.585792714368043, "pkSogAllowed60": 47.03517587939699, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 38.72727272727273, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 59.0, "C": 80.0, "R": 61.0, "L": 75.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.2727272727272725, "L": 6.818181818181818, "R": 5.545454545454546, "D": 5.363636363636363 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 26.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 25.75, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 25.0, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.363636363636363, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8479394", "team": "VGK", "name": "Carter Hart", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.8876404494382022, "gaa": 2.8716148845371516, "gsax": -1.5090000000000003, "goalsAllowed": 20.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 18.491, "shotsAgainst": 178.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.017200797231895, "factor": 1.017200797231895, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T22:33:02.238Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.046413824528481876, "goalHistoryGoals": 3.0, "goalHistoryShots": 89.0, "goalExpected": 0.00797042011285157, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.008107517693065749, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.007938740536847625, "goalProbability": 0.00807474041210433, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.013599987525670515, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 5, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 0.1717251313336723, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 1.1374407582938388, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 10.55, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.052367424242425, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.0, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9589471960166247, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9956874166464801, "Position_Factor": 0.9732049652601255, "Input_GP": 5, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1831.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 2.0996387718242024, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 10.091100210231254, "Prior_5v5_Min": 14.522404371584699, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.09156558096965894, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.8586256566683613, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.34640522875817, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.8586256566683613, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9956874166464801, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 1.4156508061344868, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 2.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020775", "date": "20260119", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 15.083333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020483", "date": "20251211", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 19.483333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020338", "date": "20241125", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "VGK", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 21.483333333333334 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "NHL.com October 20 game-specific projected lineup", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 57, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 7, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479394", "goalieName": "Carter Hart", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8482126", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479394", "goalieName": "Carter Hart", "opponent": "CBJ", "games": 5, "availableGames": 11, "shotsAgainst": 128.0, "goalsAgainst": 11.0, "savePct": 0.9140625, "gaa": 2.6073215696602583, "gsax": 0.11300000000000043, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020692", "date": "20260108", "goalieTeam": "VGK", "opponent": "CBJ", "shotsAgainst": 1.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 504.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 0.415 }, { "gameId": "2025020502", "date": "20251213", "goalieTeam": "VGK", "opponent": "CBJ", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.064 }, { "gameId": "2023020011", "date": "20231012", "goalieTeam": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "shotsAgainst": 33.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.608 }, { "gameId": "2022021287", "date": "20230411", "goalieTeam": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "shotsAgainst": 31.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3884.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.732 }, { "gameId": "2022020510", "date": "20221220", "goalieTeam": "PHI", "opponent": "CBJ", "shotsAgainst": 33.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.294 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.1717251313336723, "adjustedSOG": 0.1717251313336723, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.1717251313336723, "adjustedSOG": 0.1717251313336723, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.046413824528481876, "goalHistoryGoals": 3.0, "goalHistoryShots": 89.0, "goalExpected": 0.00797042011285157, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.00797042011285157, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.007938740536847625, "goalProbability": 0.007938740536847625, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05772212835883075, "modelSOG": 0.1717251313336723, "historyGames": 108, "seasonGames": { "2024": 42, "2025": 61, "2026": 5 }, "historyGoals": 3.0, "historyShots": 89.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.033707865168539325, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.046413824528481876, "goalieFactor": 1.017200797231895, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 33.15039987372408, "btb": { "id": "8482126", "name": "Emil Andrae", "score": 33.15039987372408, "components": { "Goal model": 1.8604651162790697, "SOG model": 1.627906976744186, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 16.27906976744186, "Goalie": 18.38235294117647, "Team H2H": 61.53846153846154, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 3, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 423 } }, { "id": "8482874", "name": "Jacob Melanson", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "position": "R", "currentGP": 1, "currentSOG": 1.0, "priorSOG": 0.9166666666666666, "currentTOI": 9.516666666666667, "currentFiveTOI": 8.783333333333333, "ppShare": 0.01272264631043257, "rate": 0.8668031730005713, "fifty": 0.8983979343697592, "inputs": { "Player": "Jacob Melanson", "Player_ID": "8482874", "Team": "SEA", "Opponent": "MIN", "Position": "R", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.0092681096162035, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.0470347153465347, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 1, "Prior_GP": 36, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 6.83111954459203, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.881188118811881, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 8.953888888888889, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 8.783333333333333, "Current_PP_Share": 0.01272264631043257, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.00255787636044845, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 5.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 393.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 1, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.085, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.049188299929848835, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.06469465648854962, "Other_State_SOG": 0.0, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9620662188708584, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 0.9166666666666666, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/seattle-kraken/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:48.614750+00:00", "priorGP": 36, "currentTotalSOG": 1.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.08333333333333333, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.00 SOG/game in 1 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 1 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.274, "currentIXG": 0.274, "priorTOI": 9.366666666666667, "priorPPTOI": 0.01064814814814815, "deploymentChange": 0.15000000000000036, "ppTOIChange": 0.07268518518518519, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020693", "date": "20260108", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 12.333333333333334 } ], "h2hGames": 1, "h2hAvailableGames": 1, "h2hSOG": 0.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "MIN", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 261.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 26.1, "mostAllowedRank": 21, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.40367597004765, "pkSogAllowed60": 45.30289727831431, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 40.4, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 77.0, "C": 114.0, "R": 29.0, "L": 41.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 11.4, "L": 4.1, "R": 2.9, "D": 7.7 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 24.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 28.333333333333332, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 26.1, "oppPosSogAllowed": 2.9, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8482661", "team": "MIN", "name": "Jesper Wallstedt", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 9, "savePct": 0.9152542372881356, "gaa": 2.1979363819525, "gsax": 6.934999999999999, "goalsAllowed": 20.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 26.935, "shotsAgainst": 236.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9495343259526882, "factor": 0.9495343259526882, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T18:37:27.914Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.11083458971481369, "goalHistoryGoals": 2.0, "goalHistoryShots": 34.0, "goalExpected": 0.09420940125759164, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.08945506032153361, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.08990783215836039, "goalProbability": 0.08557064163771576, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.43371905206446293, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 1, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 0.85, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 6.83111954459203, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 8.783333333333333, "Current_PP_Share": 0.01272264631043257, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.085, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.06469465648854962, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.957587153238364, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9748801923935355, "Position_Factor": 0.95, "Input_GP": 1, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 5.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 393.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.881188118811881, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 9.351851851851853, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.00255787636044845, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.85, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.382352941176471, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9748801923935355, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 6.83111954459203, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 0.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020693", "date": "20260108", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 12.333333333333334 } ], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. 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Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.11083458971481369, "goalHistoryGoals": 2.0, "goalHistoryShots": 34.0, "goalExpected": 0.09420940125759164, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.09420940125759164, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.08990783215836039, "goalProbability": 0.08990783215836039, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12851835021785035, "modelSOG": 0.85, "historyGames": 38, "seasonGames": { "2024": 1, "2025": 36, "2026": 1 }, "historyGoals": 2.0, "historyShots": 34.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.058823529411764705, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.11083458971481369, "goalieFactor": 0.9495343259526882, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8476881", "name": "Tomas Hertl", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "CBJ", "position": "C", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 2.5454545454545454, "priorSOG": 2.4634146341463414, "currentTOI": 16.242424242424242, "currentFiveTOI": 11.492424242424242, "ppShare": 0.7288676236044657, "rate": 2.5290329278144403, "fifty": 2.6213899020058813, "inputs": { "Player": "Tomas Hertl", "Player_ID": "8476881", "Team": "VGK", "Opponent": "CBJ", "Position": "C", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 2.7351916872108677, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 2.941858203073379, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 11, "Prior_GP": 82, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 7.119314436387607, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.7570385818561, "Current_PP_SOG60": 17.067833698030636, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 12.624584717607974, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 11.845611603843311, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 11.492424242424242, "Current_PP_Share": 0.7288676236044657, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.7234803973934406, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2742.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3762.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 6, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.392708333333333, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 3.9218549858041407, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 3.9305705077086652, "Other_State_SOG": 0.2853658536585366, "Environment_Proxy": 1.0241190783267258, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 2.4634146341463414, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/vegas-golden-knights/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:48.642144+00:00", "priorGP": 82, "currentTotalSOG": 28.0, "currentPPTOI": 4.154545454545455, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.55 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 5.142, "currentIXG": 0.4674545454545455, "priorTOI": 17.033943089430895, "priorPPTOI": 3.3036585365853655, "deploymentChange": -0.7915188470066532, "ppTOIChange": 0.8508869179600898, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020692", "date": "20260108", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "home", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 16.15 }, { "gameId": "2025020502", "date": "20251213", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 15.4 }, { "gameId": "2024021045", "date": "20250313", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 18.1 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 2.3333333333333335, "opponentDefense": { "team": "CBJ", "games": 8, "sogAllowedTotal": 222.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.75, "mostAllowedRank": 13, "fiveSogAllowed60": 26.021128266541208, "pkSogAllowed60": 45.718967636214664, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 43.125, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 66.0, "D": 61.0, "R": 49.0, "L": 46.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 8.25, "L": 5.75, "R": 6.125, "D": 7.625 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 28.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.666666666666668, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.75, "oppPosSogAllowed": 8.25, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8475660", "team": "CBJ", "name": "Cam Talbot", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 4, "savePct": 0.8674698795180723, "gaa": 3.3959351685104195, "gsax": -0.8840000000000003, "goalsAllowed": 11.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 10.116, "shotsAgainst": 83.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0106708091071457, "factor": 1.0106708091071457, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T15:32:32.146Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.14367423917823455, "goalHistoryGoals": 60.0, "goalHistoryShots": 407.0, "goalExpected": 0.3359764305935334, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.33956157094889716, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.2853600507429971, "goalProbability": 0.28791754803192243, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.2557497288925348, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 2.338459785937958, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 7.119314436387607, "Current_PP_SOG60": 17.067833698030636, "Current_5v5_Min": 11.492424242424242, "Current_PP_Share": 0.7288676236044657, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.392708333333333, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 3.9305705077086652, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0080456056426796, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9827600403123256, "Position_Factor": 0.9842134378145458, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2742.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3762.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.7570385818561, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 12.624584717607974, "Prior_5v5_Min": 12.669715447154472, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.7234803973934406, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9440597106802093, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.437908496732026, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9440597106802093, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9827600403123256, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 7.119314436387607, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 17.067833698030636, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020692", "date": "20260108", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "home", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 16.15 }, { "gameId": "2025020502", "date": "20251213", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 15.4 }, { "gameId": "2024021045", "date": "20250313", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 18.1 }, { "gameId": "2024020820", "date": "20250130", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "CBJ", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 17.833333333333332 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 186, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 98, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475660", "goalieName": "Cam Talbot", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8476881", "goals": 6, "sog": 11, "shootingPct": 0.5454545454545454, "gamesWithAttempts": 4, "recordedAttempts": 16, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020970", "date": "20260304", "season": 2025, "goals": 1, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2 }, { "gameId": "2024021115", "date": "20250322", "season": 2024, "goals": 3, "sog": 4, "attempts": 6 }, { "gameId": "2021020410", "date": "20211209", "season": 2021, "goals": 1, "sog": 2, "attempts": 3 }, { "gameId": "2021020240", "date": "20211116", "season": 2021, "goals": 1, "sog": 3, "attempts": 5 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475660", "goalieName": "Cam Talbot", "opponent": "VGK", "games": 5, "availableGames": 22, "shotsAgainst": 160.0, "goalsAgainst": 16.0, "savePct": 0.9, "gaa": 3.176704169424222, "gsax": 0.6329999999999996, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020970", "date": "20260304", "goalieTeam": "DET", "opponent": "VGK", "shotsAgainst": 25.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3728.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.397 }, { "gameId": "2024021115", "date": "20250322", "goalieTeam": "DET", "opponent": "VGK", "shotsAgainst": 35.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3491.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.784 }, { "gameId": "2023020544", "date": "20231228", "goalieTeam": "LAK", "opponent": "VGK", "shotsAgainst": 32.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3478.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.46 }, { "gameId": "2023020192", "date": "20231108", "goalieTeam": "LAK", "opponent": "VGK", "shotsAgainst": 38.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.55 }, { "gameId": "2023020125", "date": "20231028", "goalieTeam": "LAK", "opponent": "VGK", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3835.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.442 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 2.338459785937958, "adjustedSOG": 2.338459785937958, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 2.386183455038733, "adjustedSOG": 2.338459785937958, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.14367423917823455, "goalHistoryGoals": 60.0, "goalHistoryShots": 407.0, "goalExpected": 0.34283309244238097, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.34649139892744607, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.29024333457395896, "goalProbability": 0.2928350983622595, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.25917637883005606 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1284283926336492, "modelSOG": 2.338459785937958, "historyGames": 166, "seasonGames": { "2024": 73, "2025": 82, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 60.0, "historyShots": 407.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.14742014742014742, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.14367423917823455, "goalieFactor": 1.0106708091071457, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 61.234842407166845, "btb": { "id": "8476881", "name": "Tomas Hertl", "score": 61.234842407166845, "components": { "Goal model": 89.06976744186046, "SOG model": 82.55813953488372, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 96.51162790697674, "Goalie": 13.088235294117647, "Team H2H": 49.58970533383066, "Goalie H2H": 58.94539821866529 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": 11, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 77 } }, { "id": "8481806", "name": "Louis Crevier", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "WSH", "position": "D", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 0.9, "priorSOG": 1.4675324675324675, "currentTOI": 14.506666666666666, "currentFiveTOI": 12.221666666666668, "ppShare": 0.001256281407035176, "rate": 1.3767523030671698, "fifty": 1.2208620434616606, "inputs": { "Player": "Louis Crevier", "Player_ID": "8481806", "Team": "BUF", "Opponent": "WSH", "Position": "D", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.3572633054123904, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.2387510881233679, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 10, "Prior_GP": 77, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.418382653756989, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.555879098479996, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 11.042944785276074, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 13.015166666666666, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 12.221666666666668, "Current_PP_Share": 0.001256281407035176, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.01630539487138954, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 4.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3184.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 5, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.493148148148148, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.03170104281200509, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.006900939884608226, "Other_State_SOG": 0.07012987012987013, "Environment_Proxy": 1.0834850655013406, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.4675324675324675, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/buffalo-sabres/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:48.668691+00:00", "priorGP": 77, "currentTotalSOG": 9.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.006666666666666666, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.90 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.37, "currentIXG": 0.037, "priorTOI": 17.0974025974026, "priorPPTOI": 0.07056277056277056, "deploymentChange": -2.5907359307359332, "ppTOIChange": -0.0638961038961039, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020652", "date": "20260103", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 20.5 }, { "gameId": "2024020503", "date": "20241217", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 15.233333333333333 } ], "h2hGames": 2, "h2hAvailableGames": 2, "h2hSOG": 1.5, "opponentDefense": { "team": "WSH", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 263.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 29.22222222222222, "mostAllowedRank": 7, "fiveSogAllowed60": 28.540383918869974, "pkSogAllowed60": 52.820345614607106, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.111111111111114, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "L": 48.0, "D": 68.0, "C": 72.0, "R": 75.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 8.0, "L": 5.333333333333333, "R": 8.333333333333334, "D": 7.555555555555555 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 29.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27.5, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 29.22222222222222, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.555555555555555, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8479292", "team": "WSH", "name": "Charlie Lindgren", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 2, "savePct": 0.896551724137931, "gaa": 3.061224489795918, "gsax": 0.2989999999999995, "goalsAllowed": 6.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 6.2989999999999995, "shotsAgainst": 58.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.99868053226692, "factor": 0.99868053226692, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T14:45:41.433Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.0630565985259352, "goalHistoryGoals": 10.0, "goalHistoryShots": 150.0, "goalExpected": 0.05636593792437214, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.05629156488803614, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.05480680943728603, "goalProbability": 0.05473650993561848, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.007029950166755061, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 0.89389436224012, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.418382653756989, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 12.221666666666668, "Current_PP_Share": 0.001256281407035176, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.493148148148148, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.006900939884608226, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.053751909733539, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0558974457897532, "Position_Factor": 0.9950902926097296, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 4.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3184.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.555879098479996, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 11.042944785276074, "Prior_5v5_Min": 14.866666666666667, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.01630539487138954, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0134856714740588, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.34640522875817, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0134856714740588, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0558974457897532, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 4.6902142443543715, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 1.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 2.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020652", "date": "20260103", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 20.5 }, { "gameId": "2024020503", "date": "20241217", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 15.233333333333333 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff latest reported chart; October 21 final lineup pending", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 163, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. 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Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479292", "goalieName": "Charlie Lindgren", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8481806", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479292", "goalieName": "Charlie Lindgren", "opponent": "BUF", "games": 5, "availableGames": 8, "shotsAgainst": 128.0, "goalsAgainst": 16.0, "savePct": 0.875, "gaa": 3.275891486094523, "gsax": -2.283, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021028", "date": "20260312", "goalieTeam": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.161 }, { "gameId": "2025020186", "date": "20251101", "goalieTeam": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3892.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.677 }, { "gameId": "2024020637", "date": "20250106", "goalieTeam": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "shotsAgainst": 27.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3900.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.647 }, { "gameId": "2023021255", "date": "20240411", "goalieTeam": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "shotsAgainst": 16.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3458.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.149 }, { "gameId": "2023021189", "date": "20240402", "goalieTeam": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "shotsAgainst": 31.0, "goalsAgainst": 6.0, "seconds": 2733.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.083 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.89389436224012, "adjustedSOG": 0.89389436224012, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.9121371043266531, "adjustedSOG": 0.89389436224012, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.0630565985259352, "goalHistoryGoals": 10.0, "goalHistoryShots": 150.0, "goalExpected": 0.05751626318813484, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.05744037233473076, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.05589346392064807, "goalProbability": 0.055821812151098056, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.007165176955001296 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05764149631483799, "modelSOG": 0.89389436224012, "historyGames": 119, "seasonGames": { "2024": 32, "2025": 77, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 10.0, "historyShots": 150.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.06666666666666667, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.0630565985259352, "goalieFactor": 0.99868053226692, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 41.33174002493098, "btb": { "id": "8481806", "name": "Louis Crevier", "score": 41.33174002493098, "components": { "Goal model": 17.906976744186046, "SOG model": 21.162790697674417, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 3.7209302325581395, "Goalie": 87.05882352941177, "Team H2H": 50.7615317667537, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 2, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 330 } }, { "id": "8482715", "name": "Ryan Ufko", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "PIT", "position": "D", "currentGP": 1, "currentSOG": 1.0, "priorSOG": 0.6111111111111112, "currentTOI": 15.45, "currentFiveTOI": 12.45, "ppShare": 0.3625, "rate": 0.6786232584431435, "fifty": 0.8247242121173204, "inputs": { "Player": "Ryan Ufko", "Player_ID": "8482715", "Team": "NSH", "Opponent": "PIT", "Position": "D", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 0.5932466444073371, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 0.7214357989748609, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 1, "Prior_GP": 18, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.819277108433735, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 2.196963917918987, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 4.406364749082007, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 12.356388888888887, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 12.45, "Current_PP_Share": 0.3625, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.37468428623521555, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 174.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 480.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 1, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.906041666666667, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 1.7963730889512346, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 1.7784401041666666, "Other_State_SOG": 0.049999999999999996, "Environment_Proxy": 1.0227478110844896, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 0.6111111111111112, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/nashville-predators/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:48.694698+00:00", "priorGP": 18, "currentTotalSOG": 1.0, "currentPPTOI": 2.9, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.00 SOG/game in 1 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 1 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.022, "currentIXG": 0.022, "priorTOI": 13.883333333333333, "priorPPTOI": 1.512962962962963, "deploymentChange": 1.5666666666666664, "ppTOIChange": 1.3870370370370368, "h2hLog": [], "h2hGames": 0, "h2hAvailableGames": 0, "h2hSOG": null, "opponentDefense": { "team": "PIT", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 279.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.9, "mostAllowedRank": 12, "fiveSogAllowed60": 26.122338261223383, "pkSogAllowed60": 50.11600928074246, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 42.4, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 55.0, "L": 47.0, "D": 70.0, "C": 107.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.7, "L": 4.7, "R": 5.5, "D": 7.0 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 25.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 3, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 28.333333333333332, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.9, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.0, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8481668", "team": "PIT", "name": "Arturs Silovs", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 6, "savePct": 0.8662420382165605, "gaa": 3.5131744040150563, "gsax": -1.0760000000000005, "goalsAllowed": 21.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 19.924, "shotsAgainst": 157.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0136052553954562, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Likely starter per Daily Faceoff; no Model Goal adjustment until confirmed.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T15:01:09.604Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.0693237025888814, "goalHistoryGoals": 2.0, "goalHistoryShots": 12.0, "goalExpected": 0.0663355056223055, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.0663355056223055, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.06418316019512862, "goalProbability": 0.06418316019512862, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 1, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 0.9568950177935942, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.819277108433735, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 12.45, "Current_PP_Share": 0.3625, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.906041666666667, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.7784401041666666, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.011083778612368, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0249142728068137, "Position_Factor": 0.9912682240844909, "Input_GP": 1, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 174.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 480.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 2.196963917918987, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 4.406364749082007, "Prior_5v5_Min": 12.137962962962963, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.37468428623521555, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9764234875444839, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.34640522875817, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9764234875444839, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0249142728068137, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 4.819277108433735, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 13, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 5, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481668", "goalieName": "Arturs Silovs", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8482715", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. 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Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.0693237025888814, "goalHistoryGoals": 2.0, "goalHistoryShots": 12.0, "goalExpected": 0.06768929145133215, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.06768929145133215, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.06544919860563188, "goalProbability": 0.06544919860563188, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.057642546899547176, "modelSOG": 0.9568950177935942, "historyGames": 20, "seasonGames": { "2024": 1, "2025": 18, "2026": 1 }, "historyGoals": 2.0, "historyShots": 12.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.16666666666666666, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.0693237025888814, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8478416", "name": "Erik Cernak", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "UTA", "position": "D", "currentGP": 9, "currentSOG": 1.4444444444444444, "priorSOG": 0.8688524590163934, "currentTOI": 19.038888888888888, "currentFiveTOI": 15.811111111111112, "ppShare": 0.011920980926430519, "rate": 0.8334342497243932, "fifty": 1.0092422737554607, "inputs": { "Player": "Erik Cernak", "Player_ID": "8478416", "Team": "TBL", "Opponent": "UTA", "Position": "D", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 0.8916220214159336, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.121986018098574, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 9, "Prior_GP": 61, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.481377371749824, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.415365349221107, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 15.387695810564662, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 15.811111111111112, "Current_PP_Share": 0.011920980926430519, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.009923939267175493, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 35.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2936.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 5, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.626018518518518, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.05237517301518361, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.05514667852457362, "Other_State_SOG": 0.04426229508196721, "Environment_Proxy": 0.85, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 0.8688524590163934, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:48.719253+00:00", "priorGP": 61.0, "currentTotalSOG": 13.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.06481481481481483, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.44 SOG/game in 9 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 9 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.867, "currentIXG": 0.09633333333333333, "priorTOI": 17.615573770491803, "priorPPTOI": 0.05027322404371585, "deploymentChange": 1.4233151183970847, "ppTOIChange": 0.014541590771098976, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020825", "date": "20260126", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 15.25 }, { "gameId": "2025020194", "date": "20251102", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 20.45 }, { "gameId": "2024021145", "date": "20250327", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 14.666666666666666 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 1.3333333333333333, "opponentDefense": { "team": "UTA", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 225.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 22.5, "mostAllowedRank": 30, "fiveSogAllowed60": 21.06050814598143, "pkSogAllowed60": 53.47313237221494, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 35.6, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 58.0, "C": 87.0, "R": 52.0, "L": 28.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 8.7, "L": 2.8, "R": 5.2, "D": 5.8 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 22.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 20.25, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 22.5, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.8, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8478872", "team": "UTA", "name": "Karel Vejmelka", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 8, "savePct": 0.8793103448275862, "gaa": 2.8927833473635878, "gsax": -2.0919999999999987, "goalsAllowed": 21.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 18.908, "shotsAgainst": 174.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0222659253207917, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Likely starter per Daily Faceoff; no Model Goal adjustment until confirmed.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T17:11:59.953Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.051177154322343064, "goalHistoryGoals": 6.0, "goalHistoryShots": 130.0, "goalExpected": 0.061577489350739215, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.061577489350739215, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.05971991877665391, "goalProbability": 0.05971991877665391, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 9, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.203222222222222, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.481377371749824, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 15.811111111111112, "Current_PP_Share": 0.011920980926430519, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.626018518518518, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.05514667852457362, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9114659361351877, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.05376529706562, "Position_Factor": 0.9944572953736655, "Input_GP": 9, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 35.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2936.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.415365349221107, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 14.399726775956283, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.009923939267175493, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.8947508896797154, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.34640522875817, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.8032841320196071, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.05376529706562, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 6.218442731862876, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020825", "date": "20260126", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 15.25 }, { "gameId": "2025020194", "date": "20251102", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 20.45 }, { "gameId": "2024021145", "date": "20250327", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 14.666666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024021111", "date": "20250322", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 18.466666666666665 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "NHL.com projected lineup", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 17, "priorAttempts": 75, "fitPct": -6.557195599346429, "index": 93.44280440065357, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 68.69019607843137, "opponentDeltaPct": -5.689070301576365, "currentAttempts": 11, "priorAttempts": 56 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 8.658823529411764, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.7770704564453013, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 7.79607843137255, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.327351233427365, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 8 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 4.0627450980392155, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.9245535697431251, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 7.2627450980392165, "opponentDeltaPct": -16.04971857561877, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 3.5294117647058822, "opponentDeltaPct": -20.1847447341527, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. 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MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020191", "date": "20251101", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "home", "sog": 6.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 8.0, "toi": 14.616666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024021042", "date": "20250313", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 11.583333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020193", "date": "20241104", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 12.516666666666667 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "ppAssignmentSourceDate": "2026-10-11T01:38:00.435Z", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 119, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 38, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8474596", "goalieName": "Jake Allen", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8470621", "goals": 1, "sog": 8, "shootingPct": 0.125, "gamesWithAttempts": 6, "recordedAttempts": 14, "log": [ { "gameId": "2024021042", "date": "20250313", "season": 2024, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2 }, { "gameId": "2024020193", "date": "20241104", "season": 2024, "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2022020559", "date": "20221228", "season": 2022, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 4 }, { "gameId": "2022020490", "date": "20221217", "season": 2022, "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2021021091", "date": "20220402", "season": 2021, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2 }, { "gameId": "2021020390", "date": "20211207", "season": 2021, "goals": 1, "sog": 4, "attempts": 4 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8474596", "goalieName": "Jake Allen", "opponent": "LAK", "games": 5, "availableGames": 17, "shotsAgainst": 151.0, "goalsAgainst": 16.0, "savePct": 0.8940397350993378, "gaa": 3.2597623089983023, "gsax": 1.5839999999999996, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021050", "date": "20260314", "goalieTeam": "NJD", "opponent": "LAK", "shotsAgainst": 31.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.558 }, { "gameId": "2024020602", "date": "20250101", "goalieTeam": "NJD", "opponent": "LAK", "shotsAgainst": 23.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3431.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.828 }, { "gameId": "2023020309", "date": "20231125", "goalieTeam": "MTL", "opponent": "LAK", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.339 }, { "gameId": "2022020982", "date": "20230302", "goalieTeam": "MTL", "opponent": "LAK", "shotsAgainst": 33.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3509.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.849 }, { "gameId": "2022020439", "date": "20221210", "goalieTeam": "MTL", "opponent": "LAK", "shotsAgainst": 34.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3530.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.01 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.002736075160579, "adjustedSOG": 1.002736075160579, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.0232000766944682, "adjustedSOG": 1.002736075160579, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.15311194441074738, "goalHistoryGoals": 36.0, "goalHistoryShots": 219.0, "goalExpected": 0.15666415326391586, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.15666415326391586, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.14500884340611614, "goalProbability": 0.14500884340611614, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12842710267028418, "modelSOG": 1.002736075160579, "historyGames": 159, "seasonGames": { "2024": 81, "2025": 72, "2026": 6 }, "historyGoals": 36.0, "historyShots": 219.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.1643835616438356, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.15311194441074738, "goalieFactor": 1.0365218981504722, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 48.566183973883355, "btb": { "id": "8470621", "name": "Corey Perry", "score": 48.566183973883355, "components": { "Goal model": 53.02325581395349, "SOG model": 29.069767441860463, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 28.13953488372093, "Goalie": 55.44117647058823, "Team H2H": 53.645310303273746, "Goalie H2H": 51.03176758077654 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 3, "goalieH2HShots": 8, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 220 } }, { "id": "8475235", "name": "Nicolas Deslauriers", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "STL", "position": "L", "currentGP": 6, "currentSOG": 0.6666666666666666, "priorSOG": 0.5806451612903226, "currentTOI": 8.402777777777777, "currentFiveTOI": 8.244444444444445, "ppShare": 0.007787610619469027, "rate": 0.5741342622160129, "fifty": 0.5944722699134701, "inputs": { "Player": "Nicolas Deslauriers", "Player_ID": "8475235", "Team": "CAR", "Opponent": "STL", "Position": "L", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 0.5406209980625358, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 0.4329159355855738, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 6, "Prior_GP": 31, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.638814016172507, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.117422798322531, "Current_PP_SOG60": 163.63636363636363, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 8.309498207885305, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 8.244444444444445, "Current_PP_Share": 0.007787610619469027, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.00036502773172064276, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 22.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2825.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 3, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 6.0017676767676775, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.033374844279036774, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.04673942969518192, "Other_State_SOG": 0.0, "Environment_Proxy": 1.00049372648272, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 0.5806451612903226, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:48.769031+00:00", "priorGP": 31, "currentTotalSOG": 4.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.06111111111111111, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.67 SOG/game in 6 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 6 games. 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MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020324", "date": "20251120", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "STL", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 10.266666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020280", "date": "20251114", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "STL", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 9.566666666666666 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Reviewed October22 projected lineup and coach reports", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 27, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. 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Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480981", "goalieName": "Joel Hofer", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8475235", "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 2, "log": [ { "gameId": "2023020679", "date": "20240115", "season": 2023, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480981", "goalieName": "Joel Hofer", "opponent": "CAR", "games": 4, "availableGames": 4, "shotsAgainst": 121.0, "goalsAgainst": 10.0, "savePct": 0.9173553719008265, "gaa": 2.5300442757748263, "gsax": 1.0949999999999998, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020730", "date": "20260113", "goalieTeam": "STL", "opponent": "CAR", "shotsAgainst": 33.0, "goalsAgainst": 0.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.698 }, { "gameId": "2024020284", "date": "20241117", "goalieTeam": "STL", "opponent": "CAR", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.293 }, { "gameId": "2024020084", "date": "20241019", "goalieTeam": "STL", "opponent": "CAR", "shotsAgainst": 40.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.792 }, { "gameId": "2021020216", "date": "20211113", "goalieTeam": "STL", "opponent": "CAR", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3429.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.312 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.6659679428911485, "adjustedSOG": 0.6659679428911485, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.6795591253991311, "adjustedSOG": 0.6659679428911485, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.11463633751486692, "goalHistoryGoals": 4.0, "goalHistoryShots": 47.0, "goalExpected": 0.07790216926056256, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.07623015505022981, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.07494507907616475, "goalProbability": 0.07339708032572385, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.15479987504408987 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12851541614685438, "modelSOG": 0.6659679428911485, "historyGames": 68, "seasonGames": { "2024": 31, "2025": 31, "2026": 6 }, "historyGoals": 4.0, "historyShots": 47.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.0851063829787234, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.11463633751486692, "goalieFactor": 0.9785370006226618, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": 42.11621219583598, "btb": { "id": "8475235", "name": "Nicolas Deslauriers", "score": 42.11621219583598, "components": { "Goal model": 26.74418604651163, "SOG model": 12.55813953488372, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 24.651162790697676, "Goalie": 66.02941176470588, "Team H2H": 47.193211488250654, "Goalie H2H": 49.92428831011508 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 2, "goalieH2HShots": 2, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 317 } }, { "id": "8476873", "name": "Mark Jankowski", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "STL", "position": "C", "currentGP": 9, "currentSOG": 1.6666666666666667, "priorSOG": 0.9264705882352942, "currentTOI": 13.772222222222222, "currentFiveTOI": 10.04814814814815, "ppShare": 0.1503287507471608, "rate": 1.003868074413247, "fifty": 1.2361113411968407, "inputs": { "Player": "Mark Jankowski", "Player_ID": "8476873", "Team": "CAR", "Opponent": "STL", "Position": "L", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.0174854113411467, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.1672431830948444, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 9, "Prior_GP": 68, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 8.625138223368964, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.374493927125506, "Current_PP_SOG60": 7.157057654075547, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 9.939586056644881, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 10.04814814814815, "Current_PP_Share": 0.1503287507471608, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.05824339542895549, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 503.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3346.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 7, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 6.0017676767676775, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.7364357644074331, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.9022382371231745, "Other_State_SOG": 0.06405228758169934, "Environment_Proxy": 1.00049372648272, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 0.9264705882352942, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:48.791722+00:00", "priorGP": 68, "currentTotalSOG": 15.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.9314814814814815, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.67 SOG/game in 9 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 9 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 3.219, "currentIXG": 0.35766666666666663, "priorTOI": 11.151225490196078, "priorPPTOI": 0.25735294117647056, "deploymentChange": 2.6209967320261445, "ppTOIChange": 0.6741285403050109, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021033", "date": "20260312", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "STL", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 11.983333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020730", "date": "20260113", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "STL", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 14.783333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020562", "date": "20241227", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "STL", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 13.9 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 3, "h2hSOG": 1.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "STL", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 246.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.333333333333332, "mostAllowedRank": 15, "fiveSogAllowed60": 24.991224991224993, "pkSogAllowed60": 45.92737978410206, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 41.333333333333336, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 29.0, "L": 56.0, "D": 69.0, "C": 92.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.222222222222221, "L": 6.222222222222222, "R": 3.2222222222222223, "D": 7.666666666666667 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 27.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 3, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27.666666666666668, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.333333333333332, "oppPosSogAllowed": 10.222222222222221, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8480981", "team": "STL", "name": "Joel Hofer", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 6, "savePct": 0.9192546583850931, "gaa": 2.1949160491511117, "gsax": 2.83, "goalsAllowed": 13.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 15.83, "shotsAgainst": 161.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9785370006226618, "factor": 0.9785370006226618, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T15:44:23.131Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.17147689678621386, "goalHistoryGoals": 29.0, "goalHistoryShots": 144.0, "goalExpected": 0.28873690531532764, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.2825397452963302, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.250790707542193, "goalProbability": 0.24613332129066307, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.4657386251529949, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 9, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.683823947871566, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 8.625138223368964, "Current_PP_SOG60": 7.157057654075547, "Current_5v5_Min": 10.04814814814815, "Current_PP_Share": 0.1503287507471608, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 6.0017676767676775, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.9022382371231745, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.1111111111111111, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9895702550696535, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9828075032932179, "Position_Factor": 1.009381033998414, "Input_GP": 9, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 503.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3346.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.374493927125506, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 9.686274509803921, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.05824339542895549, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0393643388249014, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.437908496732026, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0393643388249014, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9828075032932179, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 8.625138223368964, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 7.157057654075547, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 2.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021033", "date": "20260312", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "STL", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 11.983333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020730", "date": "20260113", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "STL", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 14.783333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020562", "date": "20241227", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "STL", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 13.9 } ], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Reviewed October22 projected lineup and coach reports", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 98, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480981", "goalieName": "Joel Hofer", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8476873", "goals": 1, "sog": 2, "shootingPct": 0.5, "gamesWithAttempts": 2, "recordedAttempts": 3, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020730", "date": "20260113", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2024020562", "date": "20241227", "season": 2024, "goals": 1, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480981", "goalieName": "Joel Hofer", "opponent": "CAR", "games": 4, "availableGames": 4, "shotsAgainst": 121.0, "goalsAgainst": 10.0, "savePct": 0.9173553719008265, "gaa": 2.5300442757748263, "gsax": 1.0949999999999998, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020730", "date": "20260113", "goalieTeam": "STL", "opponent": "CAR", "shotsAgainst": 33.0, "goalsAgainst": 0.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.698 }, { "gameId": "2024020284", "date": "20241117", "goalieTeam": "STL", "opponent": "CAR", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.293 }, { "gameId": "2024020084", "date": "20241019", "goalieTeam": "STL", "opponent": "CAR", "shotsAgainst": 40.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.792 }, { "gameId": "2021020216", "date": "20211113", "goalieTeam": "STL", "opponent": "CAR", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3429.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.312 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.683823947871566, "adjustedSOG": 1.683823947871566, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.7181877019097613, "adjustedSOG": 1.683823947871566, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.17147689678621386, "goalHistoryGoals": 29.0, "goalHistoryShots": 144.0, "goalExpected": 0.29462949521972215, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.2883058625472758, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.25519250891321765, "goalProbability": 0.2504676966841759, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.47248122290417527 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1284036281583618, "modelSOG": 1.683823947871566, "historyGames": 137, "seasonGames": { "2024": 60, "2025": 68, "2026": 9 }, "historyGoals": 29.0, "historyShots": 144.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.2013888888888889, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.17147689678621386, "goalieFactor": 0.9785370006226618, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8477986", "name": "Brandon Montour", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "position": "D", "currentGP": 9, "currentSOG": 1.7777777777777777, "priorSOG": 2.71875, "currentTOI": 23.385185185185186, "currentFiveTOI": 19.075925925925926, "ppShare": 0.47154830172033524, "rate": 2.6254968279000375, "fifty": 2.3637878280875806, "inputs": { "Player": "Brandon Montour", "Player_ID": "8477986", "Team": "SEA", "Opponent": "MIN", "Position": "D", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 3.097050873931473, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 2.651549592887205, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 9, "Prior_GP": 64, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.892728861275605, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.169707438194969, "Current_PP_SOG60": 3.3676333021515434, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 13.69622475856014, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 19.142523148148147, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 19.075925925925926, "Current_PP_Share": 0.47154830172033524, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.4275128897438651, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1069.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2267.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 6, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.085, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 2.330647093277799, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 2.3978231142479047, "Other_State_SOG": 0.2923611111111111, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9620662188708584, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 2.71875, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/seattle-kraken/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:48.815524+00:00", "priorGP": 64, "currentTotalSOG": 16.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.9796296296296296, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.78 SOG/game in 9 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 9 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.141, "currentIXG": 0.12677777777777777, "priorTOI": 22.559635416666666, "priorPPTOI": 1.7796875, "deploymentChange": 0.8255497685185205, "ppTOIChange": 0.19994212962962954, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021240", "date": "20260407", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 8.0, "toi": 19.716666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2025020465", "date": "20251208", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 11.0, "toi": 22.35 }, { "gameId": "2024021088", "date": "20250319", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 21.583333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2024020982", "date": "20250304", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "home", "sog": 7.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 12.0, "toi": 24.866666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020033", "date": "20241012", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 11.0, "toi": 25.933333333333334 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 5, "h2hSOG": 3.8, "opponentDefense": { "team": "MIN", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 261.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 26.1, "mostAllowedRank": 21, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.40367597004765, "pkSogAllowed60": 45.30289727831431, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 40.4, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 77.0, "C": 114.0, "R": 29.0, "L": 41.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 11.4, "L": 4.1, "R": 2.9, "D": 7.7 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 24.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 28.333333333333332, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 26.1, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.7, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8482661", "team": "MIN", "name": "Jesper Wallstedt", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 9, "savePct": 0.9152542372881356, "gaa": 2.1979363819525, "gsax": 6.934999999999999, "goalsAllowed": 20.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 26.935, "shotsAgainst": 236.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9495343259526882, "factor": 0.9495343259526882, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T18:37:27.914Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.06862559666038062, "goalHistoryGoals": 30.0, "goalHistoryShots": 421.0, "goalExpected": 0.12594889098431342, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.11959279530527864, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.1183400935980836, "goalProbability": 0.11271833157453467, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.5621762023548929, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 9, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.8353048587339575, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.892728861275605, "Current_PP_SOG60": 3.3676333021515434, "Current_5v5_Min": 19.075925925925926, "Current_PP_Share": 0.47154830172033524, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.085, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 2.3978231142479047, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.1111111111111111, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.957587153238364, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9748801923935355, "Position_Factor": 1.0117153945269357, "Input_GP": 9, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1069.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2267.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.169707438194969, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 13.69622475856014, "Prior_5v5_Min": 19.297916666666666, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.4275128897438651, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0240658362989326, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.34640522875817, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0240658362989326, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9748801923935355, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 4.892728861275605, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 3.3676333021515434, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 5.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021240", "date": "20260407", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 8.0, "toi": 19.716666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2025020465", "date": "20251208", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 11.0, "toi": 22.35 }, { "gameId": "2024021088", "date": "20250319", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 21.583333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2024020982", "date": "20250304", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "home", "sog": 7.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 12.0, "toi": 24.866666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020033", "date": "20241012", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 11.0, "toi": 25.933333333333334 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 191, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 36, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482661", "goalieName": "Jesper Wallstedt", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8477986", "goals": 1, "sog": 3, "shootingPct": 0.3333333333333333, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 3, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021240", "date": "20260407", "season": 2025, "goals": 1, "sog": 3, "attempts": 3 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482661", "goalieName": "Jesper Wallstedt", "opponent": "SEA", "games": 2, "availableGames": 2, "shotsAgainst": 55.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "savePct": 0.9272727272727272, "gaa": 1.9647973802701597, "gsax": 2.874, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021240", "date": "20260407", "goalieTeam": "MIN", "opponent": "SEA", "shotsAgainst": 27.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.053 }, { "gameId": "2025020693", "date": "20260108", "goalieTeam": "MIN", "opponent": "SEA", "shotsAgainst": 28.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3729.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.821 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.8353048587339575, "adjustedSOG": 1.8353048587339575, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.8353048587339575, "adjustedSOG": 1.8353048587339575, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.06862559666038062, "goalHistoryGoals": 30.0, "goalHistoryShots": 421.0, "goalExpected": 0.12594889098431342, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.12594889098431342, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.1183400935980836, "goalProbability": 0.1183400935980836, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05753935860058309, "modelSOG": 1.8353048587339575, "historyGames": 154, "seasonGames": { "2024": 81, "2025": 64, "2026": 9 }, "historyGoals": 30.0, "historyShots": 421.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.07125890736342043, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.06862559666038062, "goalieFactor": 0.9495343259526882, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 48.85917196239411, "btb": { "id": "8477986", "name": "Brandon Montour", "score": 48.85917196239411, "components": { "Goal model": 45.58139534883721, "SOG model": 69.30232558139535, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 39.30232558139535, "Goalie": 23.676470588235293, "Team H2H": 64.83899042645778, "Goalie H2H": 52.54048432625167 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 5, "goalieH2HShots": 3, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 213 } }, { "id": "8478402", "name": "Connor McDavid", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "TOR", "position": "C", "currentGP": 9, "currentSOG": 2.4444444444444446, "priorSOG": 3.7439024390243905, "currentTOI": 23.625925925925927, "currentFiveTOI": 17.116666666666667, "ppShare": 0.7114093959731543, "rate": 4.066266389706256, "fifty": 3.5675097281112538, "inputs": { "Player": "Connor McDavid", "Player_ID": "8478402", "Team": "EDM", "Opponent": "TOR", "Position": "C", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 3.8026946103380332, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 3.244579268952647, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 9, "Prior_GP": 82, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.8422590068159685, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 7.736389684813753, "Current_PP_SOG60": 5.993340732519423, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 15.899187374867507, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 17.17410569105691, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 17.116666666666667, "Current_PP_Share": 0.7114093959731543, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.8474982283484217, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1802.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2533.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 5, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.365824915824916, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 4.036366916522124, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 3.8172982622647056, "Other_State_SOG": 0.5602981029810299, "Environment_Proxy": 1.1073475417853031, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 3.7439024390243905, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:48.841326+00:00", "priorGP": 82, "currentTotalSOG": 22.0, "currentPPTOI": 3.337037037037037, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.44 SOG/game in 9 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 9 games. 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Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478916", "goalieName": "Joey Daccord", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8473422", "goals": 1, "sog": 21, "shootingPct": 0.047619047619047616, "gamesWithAttempts": 6, "recordedAttempts": 26, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020202", "date": "20251103", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 4, "attempts": 5 }, { "gameId": "2024021084", "date": "20250318", "season": 2024, "goals": 0, "sog": 6, "attempts": 6 }, { "gameId": "2024020516", "date": "20241219", "season": 2024, "goals": 0, "sog": 4, "attempts": 5 }, { "gameId": "2024020266", "date": "20241114", "season": 2024, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2 }, { "gameId": "2023020743", "date": "20240124", "season": 2023, "goals": 1, "sog": 3, "attempts": 4 }, { "gameId": "2023020453", "date": "20231214", "season": 2023, "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 4 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478916", "goalieName": "Joey Daccord", "opponent": "MIN", "games": 5, "availableGames": 6, "shotsAgainst": 123.0, "goalsAgainst": 19.0, "savePct": 0.8455284552845528, "gaa": 4.3387250237868695, "gsax": -6.912000000000001, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021240", "date": "20260407", "goalieTeam": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 28.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3488.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.569 }, { "gameId": "2024020982", "date": "20250304", "goalieTeam": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 20.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3463.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.635 }, { "gameId": "2024020033", "date": "20241012", "goalieTeam": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 38.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3885.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.839 }, { "gameId": "2023021307", "date": "20240418", "goalieTeam": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.121 }, { "gameId": "2023020913", "date": "20240224", "goalieTeam": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "shotsAgainst": 13.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 1329.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.924 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.0514280180761781, "adjustedSOG": 1.0514280180761781, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.0728857327307941, "adjustedSOG": 1.0514280180761781, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.12882215823392293, "goalHistoryGoals": 20.0, "goalHistoryShots": 155.0, "goalExpected": 0.13821145562876472, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.13821145562876472, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.12908548750222526, "goalProbability": 0.12908548750222526, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1284965034965035, "modelSOG": 1.0514280180761781, "historyGames": 134, "seasonGames": { "2024": 78, "2025": 53, "2026": 3 }, "historyGoals": 20.0, "historyShots": 155.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.12903225806451613, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.12882215823392293, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8481580", "name": "Connor McMichael", "team": "STL", "opponent": "CAR", "position": "L", "currentGP": 9, "currentSOG": 1.3333333333333333, "priorSOG": 1.8205128205128205, "currentTOI": 16.083333333333332, "currentFiveTOI": 11.757407407407406, "ppShare": 0.43712121212121213, "rate": 1.5522679100043861, "fifty": 1.312293371677694, "inputs": { "Player": "Connor McMichael", "Player_ID": "8481580", "Team": "STL", "Opponent": "CAR", "Position": "L", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.821839733837873, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.71850294735489, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 9, "Prior_GP": 78, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.835092140494566, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.343346199026683, "Current_PP_SOG60": 6.239168110918544, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 9.486823855755894, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 12.050056980056977, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 11.757407407407406, "Current_PP_Share": 0.43712121212121213, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.3520647853513609, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1154.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2640.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 5, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.016414141414142, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 2.064777551377008, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 2.1927810299969392, "Other_State_SOG": 0.2517094017094017, "Environment_Proxy": 0.85, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.8205128205128205, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/st-louis-blues/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:48.891050+00:00", "priorGP": 78, "currentTotalSOG": 12.0, "currentPPTOI": 2.1370370370370373, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.33 SOG/game in 9 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 9 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.699, "currentIXG": 0.1887777777777778, "priorTOI": 16.906196581196582, "priorPPTOI": 1.5405982905982907, "deploymentChange": -0.8228632478632498, "ppTOIChange": 0.5964387464387466, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020485", "date": "20251211", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 18.45 }, { "gameId": "2025020259", "date": "20251111", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 18.1 }, { "gameId": "2024021252", "date": "20250410", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 18.766666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024021193", "date": "20250402", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 11.616666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020524", "date": "20241220", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 19.233333333333334 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 6, "h2hSOG": 2.2, "opponentDefense": { "team": "CAR", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 246.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 22.363636363636363, "mostAllowedRank": 31, "fiveSogAllowed60": 21.75191064079953, "pkSogAllowed60": 32.87187039764359, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 33.09090909090909, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 77.0, "R": 66.0, "D": 59.0, "L": 44.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.0, "L": 4.0, "R": 6.0, "D": 5.363636363636363 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 23.0, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 7, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 22.428571428571427, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 22.363636363636363, "oppPosSogAllowed": 4.0, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8481611", "team": "CAR", "name": "Pyotr Kochetkov", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 6, "savePct": 0.8991596638655462, "gaa": 1.9842910293509715, "gsax": 2.2720000000000002, "goalsAllowed": 12.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 14.272, "shotsAgainst": 119.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9828959307519136, "factor": 0.9828959307519136, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T22:32:34.088Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.12696832156228235, "goalHistoryGoals": 42.0, "goalHistoryShots": 332.0, "goalExpected": 0.15793214736817768, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.15523086498309338, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.1460922801110328, "goalProbability": 0.14378251597073108, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.23097641403017344, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 9, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.24387048221872, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.835092140494566, "Current_PP_SOG60": 6.239168110918544, "Current_5v5_Min": 11.757407407407406, "Current_PP_Share": 0.43712121212121213, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.016414141414142, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 2.1927810299969392, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.5555555555555556, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9235603264096603, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.85, "Position_Factor": 0.9950657537101978, "Input_GP": 9, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1154.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2640.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.343346199026683, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 9.486823855755894, "Prior_5v5_Min": 12.732905982905983, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.3520647853513609, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.8900980663408036, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.062091503267974, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.8900980663408036, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.85, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 2.835092140494566, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 6.239168110918544, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 4, "sogPerGame": 2.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020485", "date": "20251211", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 18.45 }, { "gameId": "2025020259", "date": "20251111", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 18.1 }, { "gameId": "2024021252", "date": "20250410", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 18.766666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024021193", "date": "20250402", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 11.616666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020524", "date": "20241220", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 19.233333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020188", "date": "20241103", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 21.116666666666667 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 151, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 26, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481611", "goalieName": "Pyotr Kochetkov", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8481580", "goals": 2, "sog": 12, "shootingPct": 0.16666666666666666, "gamesWithAttempts": 6, "recordedAttempts": 17, "log": [ { "gameId": "2024020524", "date": "20241220", "season": 2024, "goals": 1, "sog": 4, "attempts": 4 }, { "gameId": "2024020188", "date": "20241103", "season": 2024, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 4 }, { "gameId": "2023021212", "date": "20240405", "season": 2023, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2023021109", "date": "20240322", "season": 2023, "goals": 1, "sog": 3, "attempts": 5 }, { "gameId": "2023020603", "date": "20240105", "season": 2023, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2 }, { "gameId": "2023020475", "date": "20231217", "season": 2023, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481611", "goalieName": "Pyotr Kochetkov", "opponent": "STL", "games": 3, "availableGames": 3, "shotsAgainst": 60.0, "goalsAgainst": 6.0, "savePct": 0.9, "gaa": 2.610587382160986, "gsax": -0.46099999999999985, "log": [ { "gameId": "2024020284", "date": "20241117", "goalieTeam": "CAR", "opponent": "STL", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3598.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.005 }, { "gameId": "2024020084", "date": "20241019", "goalieTeam": "CAR", "opponent": "STL", "shotsAgainst": 19.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3476.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.804 }, { "gameId": "2022020369", "date": "20221201", "goalieTeam": "CAR", "opponent": "STL", "shotsAgainst": 11.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 1200.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 0.73 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.24387048221872, "adjustedSOG": 1.24387048221872, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.24387048221872, "adjustedSOG": 1.24387048221872, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.12696832156228235, "goalHistoryGoals": 42.0, "goalHistoryShots": 332.0, "goalExpected": 0.15793214736817768, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.15793214736817768, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.1460922801110328, "goalProbability": 0.1460922801110328, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12850314914905972, "modelSOG": 1.24387048221872, "historyGames": 169, "seasonGames": { "2024": 82, "2025": 78, "2026": 9 }, "historyGoals": 42.0, "historyShots": 332.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.12650602409638553, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.12696832156228235, "goalieFactor": 0.9828959307519136, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 54.35202950437859, "btb": { "id": "8481580", "name": "Connor McMichael", "score": 54.35202950437859, "components": { "Goal model": 54.41860465116279, "SOG model": 44.18604651162791, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 60.0, "Goalie": 50.14705882352941, "Team H2H": 64.63772845953002, "Goalie H2H": 55.48641097282194 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 6, "goalieH2HShots": 12, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 155 } }, { "id": "8480848", "name": "Ty Dellandrea", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "BOS", "position": "C", "currentGP": 3, "currentSOG": 0.6666666666666666, "priorSOG": 1.0869565217391304, "currentTOI": 12.822222222222223, "currentFiveTOI": 11.644444444444444, "ppShare": 0.01685985247629083, "rate": 1.0890848164857232, "fifty": 0.9625927825792274, "inputs": { "Player": "Ty Dellandrea", "Player_ID": "8480848", "Team": "SJS", "Opponent": "BOS", "Position": "C", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.078105016097656, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 0.893645889502552, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 3, "Prior_GP": 46, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.435114503816794, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.335395321863522, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 10.81081081081081, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 11.524806763285023, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 11.644444444444444, "Current_PP_Share": 0.01685985247629083, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.02400921751369808, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 16.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 949.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 2, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.0425, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.09583100807203433, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.08501580611169653, "Other_State_SOG": 0.058695652173913045, "Environment_Proxy": 1.0253180054689388, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.0869565217391304, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:48.914360+00:00", "priorGP": 46, "currentTotalSOG": 2.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.08888888888888889, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.67 SOG/game in 3 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 3 games. 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MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020351", "date": "20251123", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 16.6 }, { "gameId": "2024021117", "date": "20250322", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 12.883333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020740", "date": "20250120", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 13.083333333333334 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Reviewed October22 projected lineup and coach reports", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 61, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. 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Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480280", "goalieName": "Jeremy Swayman", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8480848", "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 3, "recordedAttempts": 6, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020351", "date": "20251123", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2023020867", "date": "20240219", "season": 2023, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2 }, { "gameId": "2023020178", "date": "20231106", "season": 2023, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 3 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480280", "goalieName": "Jeremy Swayman", "opponent": "SJS", "games": 5, "availableGames": 6, "shotsAgainst": 123.0, "goalsAgainst": 9.0, "savePct": 0.926829268292683, "gaa": 2.2632020117351215, "gsax": 2.58, "log": [ { "gameId": "2026020105", "date": "20261013", "goalieTeam": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "shotsAgainst": 38.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.146 }, { "gameId": "2025021027", "date": "20260312", "goalieTeam": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "shotsAgainst": 28.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3406.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.91 }, { "gameId": "2025020351", "date": "20251123", "goalieTeam": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3588.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.577 }, { "gameId": "2023020340", "date": "20231130", "goalieTeam": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "shotsAgainst": 26.0, "goalsAgainst": 0.0, "seconds": 3574.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.886 }, { "gameId": "2022020748", "date": "20230122", "goalieTeam": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "shotsAgainst": 1.0, "goalsAgainst": 0.0, "seconds": 148.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 0.061 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.6520212373037857, "adjustedSOG": 0.6520212373037857, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.6653277931671283, "adjustedSOG": 0.6520212373037857, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.07850858861127945, "goalHistoryGoals": 3.0, "goalHistoryShots": 102.0, "goalExpected": 0.052233946005408496, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.049163256225166416, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.05089319887662046, "goalProbability": 0.047974307110045876, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.29188917665745817 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12858734899478447, "modelSOG": 0.6520212373037857, "historyGames": 117, "seasonGames": { "2024": 68, "2025": 46, "2026": 3 }, "historyGoals": 3.0, "historyShots": 102.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.029411764705882353, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.07850858861127945, "goalieFactor": 0.9412127550171275, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 38.52813375184351, "btb": { "id": "8480848", "name": "Ty Dellandrea", "score": 38.52813375184351, "components": { "Goal model": 16.046511627906977, "SOG model": 12.093023255813954, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 38.83720930232558, "Goalie": 34.26470588235294, "Team H2H": 49.909620405703954, "Goalie H2H": 49.17545684147972 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 3, "goalieH2HShots": 3, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 369 } }, { "id": "8475208", "name": "Brian Dumoulin", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "NJD", "position": "D", "currentGP": 7, "currentSOG": 1.0, "priorSOG": 0.7439024390243902, "currentTOI": 16.235714285714288, "currentFiveTOI": 14.119047619047619, "ppShare": 0.009355509355509356, "rate": 0.6849709068484318, "fifty": 0.746176261529801, "inputs": { "Player": "Brian Dumoulin", "Player_ID": "8475208", "Team": "LAK", "Opponent": "NJD", "Position": "D", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 0.6462414335649418, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 0.6705229170064364, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 7, "Prior_GP": 82, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.642495784148398, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 2.529769509889099, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 6.7924528301886795, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 14.655772357723578, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 14.119047619047619, "Current_PP_Share": 0.009355509355509356, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.025275165480800416, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 18.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1924.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 4, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.575661375661376, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.0646605295015344, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.042807642807642814, "Other_State_SOG": 0.06916376306620209, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9357862710703578, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 0.7439024390243902, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/los-angeles-kings/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:48.939665+00:00", "priorGP": 82, "currentTotalSOG": 7.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.04285714285714286, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.00 SOG/game in 7 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 7 games. 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MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021050", "date": "20260314", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 15.166666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020191", "date": "20251101", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 15.516666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020598", "date": "20241231", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 19.066666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020137", "date": "20241027", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 18.483333333333334 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 95, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. 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Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8474596", "goalieName": "Jake Allen", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8475208", "goals": 1, "sog": 2, "shootingPct": 0.5, "gamesWithAttempts": 2, "recordedAttempts": 2, "log": [ { "gameId": "2021020442", "date": "20211214", "season": 2021, "goals": 1, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2021020319", "date": "20211127", "season": 2021, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8474596", "goalieName": "Jake Allen", "opponent": "LAK", "games": 5, "availableGames": 17, "shotsAgainst": 151.0, "goalsAgainst": 16.0, "savePct": 0.8940397350993378, "gaa": 3.2597623089983023, "gsax": 1.5839999999999996, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021050", "date": "20260314", "goalieTeam": "NJD", "opponent": "LAK", "shotsAgainst": 31.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.558 }, { "gameId": "2024020602", "date": "20250101", "goalieTeam": "NJD", "opponent": "LAK", "shotsAgainst": 23.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3431.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.828 }, { "gameId": "2023020309", "date": "20231125", "goalieTeam": "MTL", "opponent": "LAK", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.339 }, { "gameId": "2022020982", "date": "20230302", "goalieTeam": "MTL", "opponent": "LAK", "shotsAgainst": 33.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3509.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.849 }, { "gameId": "2022020439", "date": "20221210", "goalieTeam": "MTL", "opponent": "LAK", "shotsAgainst": 34.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3530.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.01 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.9612380595617157, "adjustedSOG": 0.9612380595617157, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.9808551628180773, "adjustedSOG": 0.9612380595617157, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.04966954201239788, "goalHistoryGoals": 6.0, "goalHistoryShots": 137.0, "goalExpected": 0.04871862671766985, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.04871862671766985, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.047550914275593645, "goalProbability": 0.047550914275593645, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.057716814569382976, "modelSOG": 0.9612380595617157, "historyGames": 169, "seasonGames": { "2024": 80, "2025": 82, "2026": 7 }, "historyGoals": 6.0, "historyShots": 137.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.043795620437956206, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.04966954201239788, "goalieFactor": 1.0365218981504722, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 37.62769007853448, "btb": { "id": "8475208", "name": "Brian Dumoulin", "score": 37.62769007853448, "components": { "Goal model": 14.418604651162791, "SOG model": 25.11627906976744, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 22.790697674418606, "Goalie": 55.44117647058823, "Team H2H": 36.53487504662439, "Goalie H2H": 51.84736523319201 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": 2, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 381 } }, { "id": "8482245", "name": "Artem Zub", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "NYR", "position": "D", "currentGP": 3, "currentSOG": 0.6666666666666666, "priorSOG": 1.1358024691358024, "currentTOI": 18.66111111111111, "currentFiveTOI": 15.638888888888888, "ppShare": 0.0, "rate": 1.0034860653999615, "fifty": 0.8642854638108086, "inputs": { "Player": "Artem Zub", "Player_ID": "8482245", "Team": "OTT", "Opponent": "NYR", "Position": "D", "Current_GP": 3, "Prior_GP": 81, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.5577264653641207, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.9627434377646065, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 16.050308641975306, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 15.638888888888888, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.021614054590038397, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1346.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 2, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Measured game-matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Historical skater-team PP minute approximation, existing hybrid method", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 6.001439393939394, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.038914631603823906, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.0, "Other_State_SOG": 0.011111111111111112, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9482920490252438, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.1358024691358024, "Status": "Historical input object restored from saved prior summaries", "Availability_Note": "Conditional on dressing", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 0.9976453493741133, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 0.9638930080073176 }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/ottawa-senators/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:48.964573+00:00", "priorGP": 81, "currentTotalSOG": 2.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.0, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.67 SOG/game in 3 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 3 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.023, "currentIXG": 0.007666666666666666, "priorTOI": 20.79238683127572, "priorPPTOI": 0.10679012345679013, "deploymentChange": -2.1312757201646093, "ppTOIChange": -0.10679012345679013, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021119", "date": "20260323", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "NYR", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 23.733333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020737", "date": "20260114", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "NYR", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 17.166666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2024021003", "date": "20250308", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "NYR", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 16.2 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 2.3333333333333335, "opponentDefense": { "team": "NYR", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 283.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 25.727272727272727, "mostAllowedRank": 23, "fiveSogAllowed60": 24.897512126427788, "pkSogAllowed60": 40.17358958462492, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 39.81818181818182, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 106.0, "D": 82.0, "R": 57.0, "L": 38.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.636363636363637, "L": 3.4545454545454546, "R": 5.181818181818182, "D": 7.454545454545454 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 27.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.4, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 25.727272727272727, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.454545454545454, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8482193", "team": "NYR", "name": "Dylan Garand", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.9285714285714286, "gaa": 1.846928781306842, "gsax": 4.030999999999999, "goalsAllowed": 11.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 15.030999999999999, "shotsAgainst": 154.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9674872583533348, "factor": 0.9674872583533348, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T15:37:42.216Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.05088142043022718, "goalHistoryGoals": 7.0, "goalHistoryShots": 151.0, "goalExpected": 0.03418249636653063, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.03307112969332755, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.03360487505526568, "goalProbability": 0.032530258684453785, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.10746163708118955, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 3, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 0.671807038355081, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.5577264653641207, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 15.638888888888888, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 6.001439393939394, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.0, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9864268368728425, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9197863814450764, "Position_Factor": 1.0097164911259575, "Input_GP": 3, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1346.0, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0077105575326217, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.34640522875817, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0077105575326217, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9197863814450764, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 2.5577264653641207, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021119", "date": "20260323", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "NYR", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 23.733333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020737", "date": "20260114", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "NYR", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 17.166666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2024021003", "date": "20250308", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "NYR", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 16.2 }, { "gameId": "2024020750", "date": "20250121", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "NYR", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 22.166666666666668 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "lineupReviewedAt": "2026-10-22T12:25:32.333917+00:00", "lineupReviewNote": "Reported forward, defense and PP chart reviewed October22; matches existing assignments. Final dressing unconfirmed. Dated statistical inputs now include October21.", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 152, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482193", "goalieName": "Dylan Garand", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8482245", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482193", "goalieName": "Dylan Garand", "opponent": "OTT", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "No appearance found in the supplied historical files; this does not establish that the goalie has never faced the team." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.671807038355081, "adjustedSOG": 0.671807038355081, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.671807038355081, "adjustedSOG": 0.671807038355081, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.05088142043022718, "goalHistoryGoals": 7.0, "goalHistoryShots": 151.0, "goalExpected": 0.03418249636653063, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.03307112969332755, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.03360487505526568, "goalProbability": 0.032530258684453785, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.10746163708118955 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.057712365279870205, "modelSOG": 0.671807038355081, "historyGames": 140, "seasonGames": { "2024": 56, "2025": 81, "2026": 3 }, "historyGoals": 7.0, "historyShots": 151.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.046357615894039736, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.05088142043022718, "goalieFactor": 0.9674872583533348, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 38.06576845930552, "btb": { "id": "8482245", "name": "Artem Zub", "score": 38.06576845930552, "components": { "Goal model": 8.604651162790697, "SOG model": 12.790697674418604, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 30.46511627906977, "Goalie": 39.55882352941177, "Team H2H": 58.01939574785528, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 374 } }, { "id": "8481068", "name": "Yegor Sharangovich", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "DET", "position": "L", "currentGP": 8, "currentSOG": 2.0, "priorSOG": 1.8205128205128205, "currentTOI": 16.572916666666668, "currentFiveTOI": 13.320833333333333, "ppShare": 0.2921270718232044, "rate": 1.8259641408477596, "fifty": 1.9086410606034945, "inputs": { "Player": "Yegor Sharangovich", "Player_ID": "8481068", "Team": "CGY", "Opponent": "DET", "Position": "C", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.7944702161283679, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.7524011432172617, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 8, "Prior_GP": 78, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 7.8823897403816074, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.298215505606745, "Current_PP_SOG60": 8.51063829787234, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 12.319977185227435, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 13.171826923076923, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 13.320833333333333, "Current_PP_Share": 0.2921270718232044, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.3978974054531289, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 423.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1448.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 5, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.265740740740741, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 1.3814949981476123, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 1.2461383517495397, "Other_State_SOG": 0.15096153846153848, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9911254066849144, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.8205128205128205, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:48.990214+00:00", "priorGP": 78, "currentTotalSOG": 16.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.88125, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.00 SOG/game in 8 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 8 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 2.352, "currentIXG": 0.294, "priorTOI": 16.044017094017097, "priorPPTOI": 1.4985042735042735, "deploymentChange": 0.5288995726495713, "ppTOIChange": -0.6172542735042735, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021063", "date": "20260316", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "DET", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 13.883333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020477", "date": "20251210", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "DET", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 14.916666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020834", "date": "20250201", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "DET", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 16.15 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 2.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "DET", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 243.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.0, "mostAllowedRank": 17, "fiveSogAllowed60": 24.49072666463971, "pkSogAllowed60": 47.14573539288113, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 41.22222222222222, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 39.0, "C": 96.0, "D": 73.0, "L": 35.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.666666666666666, "L": 3.888888888888889, "R": 4.333333333333333, "D": 8.11111111111111 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 29.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 2, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 28.5, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.0, "oppPosSogAllowed": 3.888888888888889, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8476434", "team": "DET", "name": "John Gibson", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 6, "savePct": 0.8734177215189873, "gaa": 3.5755077717634207, "gsax": -1.6310000000000002, "goalsAllowed": 20.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 18.369, "shotsAgainst": 158.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0182492009293351, "factor": 1.0182492009293351, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T17:52:44.365Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.12137870539011221, "goalHistoryGoals": 34.0, "goalHistoryShots": 286.0, "goalExpected": 0.22562966145238536, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.2297472224798478, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.20198641786062133, "goalProbability": 0.20526553187686053, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.3279114016239204, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 8, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.8588899982678977, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 7.8823897403816074, "Current_PP_SOG60": 8.51063829787234, "Current_5v5_Min": 13.320833333333333, "Current_PP_Share": 0.2921270718232044, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.265740740740741, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.2461383517495397, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.125, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9801217943191682, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9957661672519493, "Position_Factor": 0.9733472642225318, "Input_GP": 8, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 423.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1448.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.298215505606745, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 12.319977185227435, "Prior_5v5_Min": 12.824145299145298, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.3978974054531289, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.8902177975603955, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.062091503267974, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.8902177975603955, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9957661672519493, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 7.8823897403816074, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 8.51063829787234, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. 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Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476434", "goalieName": "John Gibson", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8481068", "goals": 0, "sog": 11, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 7, "recordedAttempts": 21, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021063", "date": "20260316", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2 }, { "gameId": "2025020477", "date": "20251210", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 4 }, { "gameId": "2024021203", "date": "20250403", "season": 2024, "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2024020648", "date": "20250107", "season": 2024, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 8 }, { "gameId": "2023021268", "date": "20240412", "season": 2023, "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 3 }, { "gameId": "2022020675", "date": "20230113", "season": 2022, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2021020142", "date": "20211102", "season": 2021, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476434", "goalieName": "John Gibson", "opponent": "CGY", "games": 5, "availableGames": 25, "shotsAgainst": 152.0, "goalsAgainst": 14.0, "savePct": 0.9078947368421053, "gaa": 2.9964328180737216, "gsax": 0.16800000000000015, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021063", "date": "20260316", "goalieTeam": "DET", "opponent": "CGY", "shotsAgainst": 27.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3589.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.703 }, { "gameId": "2025020477", "date": "20251210", "goalieTeam": "DET", "opponent": "CGY", "shotsAgainst": 37.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.965 }, { "gameId": "2024021203", "date": "20250403", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "CGY", "shotsAgainst": 26.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 2381.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.555 }, { "gameId": "2024020818", "date": "20250130", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "CGY", "shotsAgainst": 29.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3525.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.091 }, { "gameId": "2024020648", "date": "20250107", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "CGY", "shotsAgainst": 33.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3725.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.854 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.8588899982678977, "adjustedSOG": 1.8588899982678977, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.8588899982678977, "adjustedSOG": 1.8588899982678977, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.12137870539011221, "goalHistoryGoals": 34.0, "goalHistoryShots": 286.0, "goalExpected": 0.22562966145238536, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.22562966145238536, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.20198641786062133, "goalProbability": 0.20198641786062133, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12852180280583314, "modelSOG": 1.8588899982678977, "historyGames": 159, "seasonGames": { "2024": 73, "2025": 78, "2026": 8 }, "historyGoals": 34.0, "historyShots": 286.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.11888111888111888, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.12137870539011221, "goalieFactor": 1.0182492009293351, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 52.019736123104, "btb": { "id": "8481068", "name": "Yegor Sharangovich", "score": 52.019736123104, "components": { "Goal model": 73.02325581395348, "SOG model": 70.69767441860465, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 81.62790697674419, "Goalie": 2.5, "Team H2H": 41.86870570682581, "Goalie H2H": 41.87104685684781 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": 11, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 186 } }, { "id": "8482092", "name": "Ridly Greig", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "NYR", "position": "C", "currentGP": 8, "currentSOG": 1.375, "priorSOG": 1.6753246753246753, "currentTOI": 16.608333333333334, "currentFiveTOI": 12.20625, "ppShare": 0.18044515103338632, "rate": 1.5427721652081117, "fifty": 1.4256894342277773, "inputs": { "Player": "Ridly Greig", "Player_ID": "8482092", "Team": "OTT", "Opponent": "NYR", "Position": "C", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.6353421930429561, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.5765370913705157, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 8, "Prior_GP": 77, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.529953917050691, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.3650484153475, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 6.470456077286003, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 12.474115259740259, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 12.20625, "Current_PP_Share": 0.18044515103338632, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.19499378713813112, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 681.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3774.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 3, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 6.001439393939394, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 1.1091244652112398, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 1.0829306378571084, "Other_State_SOG": 0.18863636363636363, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9482920490252438, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.6753246753246753, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/ottawa-senators/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:49.014869+00:00", "priorGP": 77, "currentTotalSOG": 11.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.41875, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.38 SOG/game in 8 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 8 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.531, "currentIXG": 0.191375, "priorTOI": 16.693722943722946, "priorPPTOI": 0.9634199134199135, "deploymentChange": -0.0853896103896119, "ppTOIChange": 0.45533008658008645, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021119", "date": "20260323", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "NYR", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 16.666666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2025020737", "date": "20260114", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "NYR", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 16.583333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2025020427", "date": "20251204", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "NYR", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 12.166666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024021003", "date": "20250308", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "NYR", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 21.2 }, { "gameId": "2024020750", "date": "20250121", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "NYR", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 17.933333333333334 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 6, "h2hSOG": 0.6, "opponentDefense": { "team": "NYR", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 283.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 25.727272727272727, "mostAllowedRank": 23, "fiveSogAllowed60": 24.897512126427788, "pkSogAllowed60": 40.17358958462492, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 39.81818181818182, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 106.0, "D": 82.0, "R": 57.0, "L": 38.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.636363636363637, "L": 3.4545454545454546, "R": 5.181818181818182, "D": 7.454545454545454 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 27.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.4, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 25.727272727272727, "oppPosSogAllowed": 9.636363636363637, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8482193", "team": "NYR", "name": "Dylan Garand", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.9285714285714286, "gaa": 1.846928781306842, "gsax": 4.030999999999999, "goalsAllowed": 11.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 15.030999999999999, "shotsAgainst": 154.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9674872583533348, "factor": 0.9674872583533348, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T15:37:42.216Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.11101763722010306, "goalHistoryGoals": 27.0, "goalHistoryShots": 259.0, "goalExpected": 0.15402489018257026, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.1490171187209084, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.142749316380111, "goalProbability": 0.13844563393602202, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.4303682444088991, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 8, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.3873911753066877, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.529953917050691, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 12.20625, "Current_PP_Share": 0.18044515103338632, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 6.001439393939394, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.0829306378571084, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.25, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9864268368728425, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9197863814450764, "Position_Factor": 1.0105908601706983, "Input_GP": 8, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 681.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3774.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.3650484153475, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 6.470456077286003, "Prior_5v5_Min": 13.099134199134198, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.19499378713813112, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.011014378050389, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.437908496732026, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.011014378050389, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9197863814450764, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.529953917050691, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 1.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 0.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021119", "date": "20260323", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "NYR", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 16.666666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2025020737", "date": "20260114", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "NYR", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 16.583333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2025020427", "date": "20251204", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "NYR", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 12.166666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024021003", "date": "20250308", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "NYR", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 21.2 }, { "gameId": "2024020750", "date": "20250121", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "NYR", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 17.933333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020170", "date": "20241101", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "NYR", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 17.0 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "lineupReviewedAt": "2026-10-22T12:25:32.333917+00:00", "lineupReviewNote": "Reported forward, defense and PP chart reviewed October22; matches existing assignments. Final dressing unconfirmed. Dated statistical inputs now include October21.", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 160, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 14, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482193", "goalieName": "Dylan Garand", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8482092", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482193", "goalieName": "Dylan Garand", "opponent": "OTT", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "No appearance found in the supplied historical files; this does not establish that the goalie has never faced the team." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.3873911753066877, "adjustedSOG": 1.3873911753066877, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.3873911753066877, "adjustedSOG": 1.3873911753066877, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.11101763722010306, "goalHistoryGoals": 27.0, "goalHistoryShots": 259.0, "goalExpected": 0.15402489018257026, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.1490171187209084, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.142749316380111, "goalProbability": 0.13844563393602202, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.4303682444088991 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12855331762017, "modelSOG": 1.3873911753066877, "historyGames": 163, "seasonGames": { "2024": 78, "2025": 77, "2026": 8 }, "historyGoals": 27.0, "historyShots": 259.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.10424710424710425, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.11101763722010306, "goalieFactor": 0.9674872583533348, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 49.84029017976734, "btb": { "id": "8482092", "name": "Ridly Greig", "score": 49.84029017976734, "components": { "Goal model": 53.25581395348837, "SOG model": 52.093023255813954, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 60.46511627906977, "Goalie": 39.55882352941177, "Team H2H": 43.880548302872064, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 6, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 204 } }, { "id": "8471675", "name": "Sidney Crosby", "team": "PIT", "opponent": "NSH", "position": "C", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 2.2, "priorSOG": 2.3529411764705883, "currentTOI": 19.488333333333333, "currentFiveTOI": 14.680000000000001, "ppShare": 0.6833333333333333, "rate": 2.548402938161201, "fifty": 2.4654329348886144, "inputs": { "Player": "Sidney Crosby", "Player_ID": "8471675", "Team": "PIT", "Opponent": "NSH", "Position": "C", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 2.6101202150272176, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 2.6645543280641815, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 10, "Prior_GP": 68, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 7.356948228882834, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.7550704043405245, "Current_PP_SOG60": 3.5838725734196117, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 13.701803739864307, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 14.829529411764707, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 14.680000000000001, "Current_PP_Share": 0.6833333333333333, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.6724569568705618, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2009.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2940.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 6, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.130208333333334, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 3.488902937961377, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 3.5056423611111116, "Other_State_SOG": 0.20529411764705885, "Environment_Proxy": 1.0738773444064478, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 2.3529411764705883, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/pittsburgh-penguins/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:49.039123+00:00", "priorGP": 68, "currentTotalSOG": 22.0, "currentPPTOI": 3.3483333333333336, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.20 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 3.1710000000000003, "currentIXG": 0.31710000000000005, "priorTOI": 19.230882352941176, "priorPPTOI": 2.9622549019607844, "deploymentChange": 0.2574509803921572, "ppTOIChange": 0.38607843137254916, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020296", "date": "20251116", "team": "PIT", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 15.516666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020281", "date": "20251114", "team": "PIT", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 20.166666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2024020830", "date": "20250201", "team": "PIT", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 20.933333333333334 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 2.3333333333333335, "opponentDefense": { "team": "NSH", "games": 8, "sogAllowedTotal": 233.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 29.125, "mostAllowedRank": 8, "fiveSogAllowed60": 26.902173913043477, "pkSogAllowed60": 37.776914108045084, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 45.125, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 82.0, "L": 44.0, "D": 67.0, "R": 40.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.25, "L": 5.5, "R": 5.0, "D": 8.375 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 27.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 3, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 30.0, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 29.125, "oppPosSogAllowed": 10.25, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8477424", "team": "NSH", "name": "Juuse Saros", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.9061032863849765, "gaa": 2.8192176670973805, "gsax": 1.6679999999999993, "goalsAllowed": 20.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 21.668, "shotsAgainst": 213.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9906396066739361, "factor": 0.9906396066739361, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T15:56:16.281Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.15292455587021447, "goalHistoryGoals": 65.0, "goalHistoryShots": 409.0, "goalExpected": 0.3453662600905164, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.3421334960545175, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.29203899188614113, "goalProbability": 0.28974661764413917, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.229237424200196, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 2.258409436765834, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 7.356948228882834, "Current_PP_SOG60": 3.5838725734196117, "Current_5v5_Min": 14.680000000000001, "Current_PP_Share": 0.6833333333333333, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.130208333333334, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 3.5056423611111116, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.2, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0235094259979116, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9053307495740243, "Position_Factor": 1.001731136817271, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2009.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2940.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.7550704043405245, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 13.701803739864307, "Prior_5v5_Min": 15.17843137254902, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.6724569568705618, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0382425361649739, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.437908496732026, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0382425361649739, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9053307495740243, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 7.356948228882834, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 3.5838725734196117, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 3.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020296", "date": "20251116", "team": "PIT", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 15.516666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020281", "date": "20251114", "team": "PIT", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 20.166666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2024020830", "date": "20250201", "team": "PIT", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 20.933333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020515", "date": "20241219", "team": "PIT", "opponent": "NSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 17.4 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-19T20:27:28.451Z", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 156, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. 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Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477424", "goalieName": "Juuse Saros", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8471675", "goals": 5, "sog": 35, "shootingPct": 0.14285714285714285, "gamesWithAttempts": 9, "recordedAttempts": 48, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020296", "date": "20251116", "season": 2025, "goals": 1, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2 }, { "gameId": "2025020281", "date": "20251114", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 3 }, { "gameId": "2024020830", "date": "20250201", "season": 2024, "goals": 1, "sog": 4, "attempts": 6 }, { "gameId": "2024020515", "date": "20241219", "season": 2024, "goals": 1, "sog": 2, "attempts": 3 }, { "gameId": "2023021289", "date": "20240415", "season": 2023, "goals": 1, "sog": 7, "attempts": 7 }, { "gameId": "2023020331", "date": "20231128", "season": 2023, "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 5 }, { "gameId": "2022021192", "date": "20230330", "season": 2022, "goals": 0, "sog": 9, "attempts": 13 }, { "gameId": "2022020963", "date": "20230228", "season": 2022, "goals": 1, "sog": 4, "attempts": 6 }, { "gameId": "2021020958", "date": "20220315", "season": 2021, "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 3 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477424", "goalieName": "Juuse Saros", "opponent": "PIT", "games": 5, "availableGames": 13, "shotsAgainst": 131.0, "goalsAgainst": 15.0, "savePct": 0.8854961832061069, "gaa": 3.034219250435467, "gsax": -2.5649999999999995, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020296", "date": "20251116", "goalieTeam": "NSH", "opponent": "PIT", "shotsAgainst": 21.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3562.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.064 }, { "gameId": "2025020281", "date": "20251114", "goalieTeam": "NSH", "opponent": "PIT", "shotsAgainst": 17.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3637.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.622 }, { "gameId": "2024020830", "date": "20250201", "goalieTeam": "NSH", "opponent": "PIT", "shotsAgainst": 35.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3527.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.258 }, { "gameId": "2024020515", "date": "20241219", "goalieTeam": "NSH", "opponent": "PIT", "shotsAgainst": 20.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3657.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.863 }, { "gameId": "2023021289", "date": "20240415", "goalieTeam": "NSH", "opponent": "PIT", "shotsAgainst": 38.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3414.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.628 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 2.258409436765834, "adjustedSOG": 2.258409436765834, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 2.258409436765834, "adjustedSOG": 2.258409436765834, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.15292455587021447, "goalHistoryGoals": 65.0, "goalHistoryShots": 409.0, "goalExpected": 0.3453662600905164, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.3421334960545175, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.29203899188614113, "goalProbability": 0.28974661764413917, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.229237424200196 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12838598937939172, "modelSOG": 2.258409436765834, "historyGames": 158, "seasonGames": { "2024": 80, "2025": 68, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 65.0, "historyShots": 409.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.15892420537897312, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.15292455587021447, "goalieFactor": 0.9906396066739361, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 67.94109648235926, "btb": { "id": "8471675", "name": "Sidney Crosby", "score": 67.94109648235926, "components": { "Goal model": 90.23255813953489, "SOG model": 81.62790697674419, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 85.81395348837209, "Goalie": 81.91176470588235, "Team H2H": 58.54158895934353, "Goalie H2H": 52.593793422880964 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": 35, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 13 } }, { "id": "8474586", "name": "Jordan Eberle", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "position": "R", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 2.3, "priorSOG": 2.1, "currentTOI": 16.259999999999998, "currentFiveTOI": 13.011666666666667, "ppShare": 0.47150837988826816, "rate": 1.9650556921559683, "fifty": 2.110932477083066, "inputs": { "Player": "Jordan Eberle", "Player_ID": "8474586", "Team": "SEA", "Opponent": "MIN", "Position": "R", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 2.334121374960371, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 2.5691712862562808, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 10, "Prior_GP": 80, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 9.222492634814909, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.7190254600666375, "Current_PP_SOG60": 8.530805687203792, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 10.728476821192054, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 13.553854166666666, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 13.011666666666667, "Current_PP_Share": 0.47150837988826816, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.6045485171912075, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1266.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2685.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 6, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.085, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 2.6005728411874776, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 2.3976201117318436, "Other_State_SOG": 0.19125, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9620662188708584, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 2.1, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/seattle-kraken/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:49.064051+00:00", "priorGP": 80, "currentTotalSOG": 23.0, "currentPPTOI": 2.1100000000000003, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.30 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 3.605, "currentIXG": 0.3605, "priorTOI": 18.476458333333333, "priorPPTOI": 2.5166666666666666, "deploymentChange": -2.2164583333333354, "ppTOIChange": -0.4066666666666663, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021240", "date": "20260407", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 18.433333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020465", "date": "20251208", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 15.666666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024021088", "date": "20250319", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 16.966666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2024020982", "date": "20250304", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 15.5 }, { "gameId": "2024020033", "date": "20241012", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 2.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 17.55 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 5, "h2hSOG": 1.6, "opponentDefense": { "team": "MIN", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 261.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 26.1, "mostAllowedRank": 21, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.40367597004765, "pkSogAllowed60": 45.30289727831431, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 40.4, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 77.0, "C": 114.0, "R": 29.0, "L": 41.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 11.4, "L": 4.1, "R": 2.9, "D": 7.7 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 24.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 28.333333333333332, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 26.1, "oppPosSogAllowed": 2.9, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8482661", "team": "MIN", "name": "Jesper Wallstedt", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 9, "savePct": 0.9152542372881356, "gaa": 2.1979363819525, "gsax": 6.934999999999999, "goalsAllowed": 20.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 26.935, "shotsAgainst": 236.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9495343259526882, "factor": 0.9495343259526882, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T18:37:27.914Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.14242375818285533, "goalHistoryGoals": 38.0, "goalHistoryShots": 257.0, "goalExpected": 0.2894521714221224, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.2748447724868469, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.25132639995183303, "goalProbability": 0.24030996113164363, "goalAdjustmentPP": -1.1016438820189407, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 2.0323306667030923, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 9.222492634814909, "Current_PP_SOG60": 8.530805687203792, "Current_5v5_Min": 13.011666666666667, "Current_PP_Share": 0.47150837988826816, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.085, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 2.3976201117318436, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.957587153238364, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9748801923935355, "Position_Factor": 0.95, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1266.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2685.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.7190254600666375, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 10.728476821192054, "Prior_5v5_Min": 14.818958333333333, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.6045485171912075, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.85, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.382352941176471, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9748801923935355, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 9.222492634814909, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 8.530805687203792, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 1.6666666666666667 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021240", "date": "20260407", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 18.433333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020465", "date": "20251208", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 15.666666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024021088", "date": "20250319", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 16.966666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2024020982", "date": "20250304", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 15.5 }, { "gameId": "2024020033", "date": "20241012", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 2.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 17.55 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 178, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 52, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482661", "goalieName": "Jesper Wallstedt", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8474586", "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 1, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021240", "date": "20260407", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 1 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482661", "goalieName": "Jesper Wallstedt", "opponent": "SEA", "games": 2, "availableGames": 2, "shotsAgainst": 55.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "savePct": 0.9272727272727272, "gaa": 1.9647973802701597, "gsax": 2.874, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021240", "date": "20260407", "goalieTeam": "MIN", "opponent": "SEA", "shotsAgainst": 27.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.053 }, { "gameId": "2025020693", "date": "20260108", "goalieTeam": "MIN", "opponent": "SEA", "shotsAgainst": 28.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3729.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.821 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 2.0323306667030923, "adjustedSOG": 2.0323306667030923, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 2.0323306667030923, "adjustedSOG": 2.0323306667030923, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.14242375818285533, "goalHistoryGoals": 38.0, "goalHistoryShots": 257.0, "goalExpected": 0.2894521714221224, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.2894521714221224, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.25132639995183303, "goalProbability": 0.25132639995183303, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1284528167127935, "modelSOG": 2.0323306667030923, "historyGames": 132, "seasonGames": { "2024": 42, "2025": 80, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 38.0, "historyShots": 257.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.14785992217898833, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.14242375818285533, "goalieFactor": 0.9495343259526882, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 60.64519882274362, "btb": { "id": "8474586", "name": "Jordan Eberle", "score": 60.64519882274362, "components": { "Goal model": 83.95348837209302, "SOG model": 76.27906976744185, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 90.69767441860465, "Goalie": 23.676470588235293, "Team H2H": 57.35422106179286, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 5, "goalieH2HShots": 0, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 83 } }, { "id": "8478020", "name": "Michael Amadio", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "NYR", "position": "R", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 1.0, "priorSOG": 1.1851851851851851, "currentTOI": 15.625, "currentFiveTOI": 12.775, "ppShare": 0.005856172405715624, "rate": 1.0553482129765719, "fifty": 0.993285853226682, "inputs": { "Player": "Michael Amadio", "Player_ID": "8478020", "Team": "OTT", "Opponent": "NYR", "Position": "R", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.1302929906520474, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.1636181826101677, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 10, "Prior_GP": 81, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.227005870841487, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.610005611430052, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 18.46153846153846, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 13.232685185185183, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 12.775, "Current_PP_Share": 0.005856172405715624, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.016241775125462377, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 25.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 4269.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 5, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 6.001439393939394, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.05384403336099026, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.03514546377336258, "Other_State_SOG": 0.06555555555555556, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9482920490252438, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.1851851851851851, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/ottawa-senators/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:49.089383+00:00", "priorGP": 81, "currentTotalSOG": 10.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.04166666666666667, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.00 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 2.039, "currentIXG": 0.20390000000000003, "priorTOI": 16.12037037037037, "priorPPTOI": 0.08024691358024691, "deploymentChange": -0.49537037037037024, "ppTOIChange": -0.03858024691358024, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021119", "date": "20260323", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "NYR", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 14.083333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020737", "date": "20260114", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "NYR", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 16.016666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020427", "date": "20251204", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "NYR", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 16.583333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2024021003", "date": "20250308", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "NYR", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 15.216666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020750", "date": "20250121", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "NYR", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 15.35 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 6, "h2hSOG": 0.6, "opponentDefense": { "team": "NYR", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 283.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 25.727272727272727, "mostAllowedRank": 23, "fiveSogAllowed60": 24.897512126427788, "pkSogAllowed60": 40.17358958462492, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 39.81818181818182, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 106.0, "D": 82.0, "R": 57.0, "L": 38.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.636363636363637, "L": 3.4545454545454546, "R": 5.181818181818182, "D": 7.454545454545454 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 27.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.4, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 25.727272727272727, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.181818181818182, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8482193", "team": "NYR", "name": "Dylan Garand", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.9285714285714286, "gaa": 1.846928781306842, "gsax": 4.030999999999999, "goalsAllowed": 11.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 15.030999999999999, "shotsAgainst": 154.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9674872583533348, "factor": 0.9674872583533348, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T15:37:42.216Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.14036645972559858, "goalHistoryGoals": 28.0, "goalHistoryShots": 191.0, "goalExpected": 0.13790100668592178, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.13341746688272738, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.12881507103943313, "goalProbability": 0.12490030929736835, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.39147617420647735, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 0.9824355971896955, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.227005870841487, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 12.775, "Current_PP_Share": 0.005856172405715624, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 6.001439393939394, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.03514546377336258, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.1, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9864268368728425, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9197863814450764, "Position_Factor": 1.002510875172058, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 25.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 4269.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.610005611430052, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 18.46153846153846, "Prior_5v5_Min": 14.300617283950617, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.016241775125462377, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9804839968774395, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.382352941176471, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9804839968774395, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9197863814450764, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 4.227005870841487, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 1.6666666666666667 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 0.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021119", "date": "20260323", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "NYR", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 14.083333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020737", "date": "20260114", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "NYR", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 16.016666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020427", "date": "20251204", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "NYR", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 16.583333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2024021003", "date": "20250308", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "NYR", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 15.216666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020750", "date": "20250121", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "NYR", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 15.35 }, { "gameId": "2024020170", "date": "20241101", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "NYR", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 15.7 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "lineupReviewedAt": "2026-10-22T12:25:32.333917+00:00", "lineupReviewNote": "Reported forward, defense and PP chart reviewed October22; matches existing assignments. Final dressing unconfirmed. Dated statistical inputs now include October21.", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 141, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482193", "goalieName": "Dylan Garand", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8478020", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482193", "goalieName": "Dylan Garand", "opponent": "OTT", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "No appearance found in the supplied historical files; this does not establish that the goalie has never faced the team." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.9824355971896955, "adjustedSOG": 0.9824355971896955, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.9824355971896955, "adjustedSOG": 0.9824355971896955, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.14036645972559858, "goalHistoryGoals": 28.0, "goalHistoryShots": 191.0, "goalExpected": 0.13790100668592178, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.13341746688272738, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.12881507103943313, "goalProbability": 0.12490030929736835, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.39147617420647735 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12846639780149186, "modelSOG": 0.9824355971896955, "historyGames": 163, "seasonGames": { "2024": 72, "2025": 81, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 28.0, "historyShots": 191.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.14659685863874344, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.14036645972559858, "goalieFactor": 0.9674872583533348, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 49.54212392802163, "btb": { "id": "8478020", "name": "Michael Amadio", "score": 49.54212392802163, "components": { "Goal model": 48.13953488372093, "SOG model": 26.74418604651163, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 65.11627906976744, "Goalie": 39.55882352941177, "Team H2H": 54.06331592689295, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 6, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 205 } }, { "id": "8480893", "name": "Kirill Marchenko", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "EDM", "position": "R", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 2.6363636363636362, "priorSOG": 2.8684210526315788, "currentTOI": 18.663636363636364, "currentFiveTOI": 14.081818181818182, "ppShare": 0.7330725248269636, "rate": 2.7200181928763136, "fifty": 2.638024691705632, "inputs": { "Player": "Kirill Marchenko", "Player_ID": "8480893", "Team": "TOR", "Opponent": "EDM", "Position": "R", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 2.5074146307741403, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 2.3943540734182096, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 11, "Prior_GP": 76, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 6.97224015493867, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 7.369444968713251, "Current_PP_SOG60": 10.344827586206897, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 12.408088235294118, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 14.388785885167465, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 14.081818181818182, "Current_PP_Share": 0.7330725248269636, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.6610077819954611, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2436.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3323.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 6, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.3053872053872055, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 3.063081082487023, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 3.1561610690109037, "Other_State_SOG": 0.3916267942583732, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9716922687020597, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 2.8684210526315788, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/toronto-maple-leafs/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:49.112692+00:00", "priorGP": 76, "currentTotalSOG": 29.0, "currentPPTOI": 3.690909090909091, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.64 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 4.287, "currentIXG": 0.3897272727272727, "priorTOI": 18.942324561403506, "priorPPTOI": 2.863157894736842, "deploymentChange": -0.27868819776714204, "ppTOIChange": 0.8277511961722488, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020274", "date": "20251113", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 17.983333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020254", "date": "20251110", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 11.0, "toi": 19.7 }, { "gameId": "2024020418", "date": "20241205", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 17.016666666666666 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 1.3333333333333333, "opponentDefense": { "team": "EDM", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 239.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 26.555555555555557, "mostAllowedRank": 18, "fiveSogAllowed60": 25.09786377362711, "pkSogAllowed60": 57.79388917659244, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 40.111111111111114, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 74.0, "C": 64.0, "L": 57.0, "R": 44.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.111111111111111, "L": 6.333333333333333, "R": 4.888888888888889, "D": 8.222222222222221 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 28.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 24.5, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 26.555555555555557, "oppPosSogAllowed": 4.888888888888889, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8477465", "team": "EDM", "name": "Tristan Jarry", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 3, "savePct": 0.8732394366197183, "gaa": 2.974387221151198, "gsax": -2.739, "goalsAllowed": 9.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 6.261, "shotsAgainst": 71.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0280169850571896, "factor": 1.0280169850571896, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-23T18:50:20.460Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.13690533326966334, "goalHistoryGoals": 63.0, "goalHistoryShots": 454.0, "goalExpected": 0.337951173859864, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.3474195468479555, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.2867698886785067, "goalProbability": 0.2934911474927571, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.6721258814250397, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 2.4685026199395708, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 6.97224015493867, "Current_PP_SOG60": 10.344827586206897, "Current_5v5_Min": 14.081818181818182, "Current_PP_Share": 0.7330725248269636, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.3053872053872055, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 3.1561610690109037, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.36363636363636365, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9913228889134689, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0841268017286898, "Position_Factor": 0.9918962386417378, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2436.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3323.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 7.369444968713251, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 12.408088235294118, "Prior_5v5_Min": 15.105043859649124, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.6610077819954611, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9565717572620075, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.382352941176471, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9565717572620075, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0841268017286898, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 6.97224015493867, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 10.344827586206897, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020274", "date": "20251113", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 17.983333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020254", "date": "20251110", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 11.0, "toi": 19.7 }, { "gameId": "2024020418", "date": "20241205", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 17.016666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020142", "date": "20241028", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 17.666666666666668 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 227, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 66, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477465", "goalieName": "Tristan Jarry", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8480893", "goals": 1, "sog": 10, "shootingPct": 0.1, "gamesWithAttempts": 5, "recordedAttempts": 13, "log": [ { "gameId": "2024020645", "date": "20250107", "season": 2024, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2 }, { "gameId": "2024020267", "date": "20241115", "season": 2024, "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 3 }, { "gameId": "2023020230", "date": "20231114", "season": 2023, "goals": 1, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2022021303", "date": "20230413", "season": 2022, "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 4 }, { "gameId": "2022020404", "date": "20221206", "season": 2022, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 3 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477465", "goalieName": "Tristan Jarry", "opponent": "TOR", "games": 5, "availableGames": 13, "shotsAgainst": 102.0, "goalsAgainst": 16.0, "savePct": 0.8431372549019608, "gaa": 4.100811618966254, "gsax": -2.944, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020499", "date": "20251213", "goalieTeam": "EDM", "opponent": "TOR", "shotsAgainst": 28.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.854 }, { "gameId": "2025020396", "date": "20251129", "goalieTeam": "PIT", "opponent": "TOR", "shotsAgainst": 13.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 2107.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.626 }, { "gameId": "2025020199", "date": "20251103", "goalieTeam": "PIT", "opponent": "TOR", "shotsAgainst": 20.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3452.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.296 }, { "gameId": "2024020433", "date": "20241207", "goalieTeam": "PIT", "opponent": "TOR", "shotsAgainst": 27.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3571.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.846 }, { "gameId": "2023020466", "date": "20231216", "goalieTeam": "PIT", "opponent": "TOR", "shotsAgainst": 14.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 1316.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.434 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 2.4685026199395708, "adjustedSOG": 2.4685026199395708, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 2.5188802244281336, "adjustedSOG": 2.4685026199395708, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.13690533326966334, "goalHistoryGoals": 63.0, "goalHistoryShots": 454.0, "goalExpected": 0.344848136591698, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.3545097416815873, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.291672085608416, "goalProbability": 0.2984827163998254, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.6810630791409367 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12845554631393488, "modelSOG": 2.4685026199395708, "historyGames": 166, "seasonGames": { "2024": 79, "2025": 76, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 63.0, "historyShots": 454.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.13876651982378854, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.13690533326966334, "goalieFactor": 1.0280169850571896, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 66.22960646256061, "btb": { "id": "8480893", "name": "Kirill Marchenko", "score": 66.22960646256061, "components": { "Goal model": 89.53488372093024, "SOG model": 86.51162790697674, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 93.25581395348837, "Goalie": 92.20588235294117, "Team H2H": 36.90787019768743, "Goalie H2H": 49.14698162729659 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": 10, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 23 } }, { "id": "8475253", "name": "Garrett Wilson", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "ANA", "position": "L", "currentGP": 2, "currentSOG": 0.0, "priorSOG": 1, "currentTOI": 9.808333333333334, "currentFiveTOI": 9.558333333333334, "ppShare": 0.0, "rate": 0.9651774313485495, "fifty": 0.6157483854651894, "inputs": { "Player": "Garrett Wilson", "Player_ID": "8475253", "Team": "PHI", "Opponent": "ANA", "Position": "L", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.2134724391805374, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 0.7845614596670936, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 2, "Prior_GP": 3, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 0.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.914212548015365, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 9.294166666666666, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 9.558333333333334, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0, "Prior_PP_Share": 0, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 493.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 1, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.042592592592593, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.0, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.0, "Other_State_SOG": 0.0, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9949214190083264, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/philadelphia-flyers/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:49.136963+00:00", "priorGP": 3, "currentTotalSOG": 0.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.0, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.00 SOG/game in 2 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 2 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.0, "currentIXG": 0.0, "priorTOI": 8.677777777777779, "priorPPTOI": 0, "deploymentChange": 1.1305555555555546, "ppTOIChange": 0.0, "h2hLog": [], "h2hGames": 0, "h2hAvailableGames": 0, "h2hSOG": null, "opponentDefense": { "team": "ANA", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 239.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 26.555555555555557, "mostAllowedRank": 18, "fiveSogAllowed60": 25.834281008587897, "pkSogAllowed60": 38.93928820655967, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 43.333333333333336, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 54.0, "C": 91.0, "R": 57.0, "L": 37.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.11111111111111, "L": 4.111111111111111, "R": 6.333333333333333, "D": 6.0 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 28.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.2, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 26.555555555555557, "oppPosSogAllowed": 4.111111111111111, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8480843", "team": "ANA", "name": "Lukas Dostal", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.8813559322033898, "gaa": 3.1634446397188047, "gsax": 2.846, "goalsAllowed": 21.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 23.846, "shotsAgainst": 177.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9815060369171769, "factor": 0.9815060369171769, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T16:38:16.530Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.12475793881135935, "goalHistoryGoals": 0.0, "goalHistoryShots": 3.0, "goalExpected": 0.0, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.0, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.0, "goalProbability": 0.0, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 2, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 0.0, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 9.558333333333334, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.042592592592593, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.0, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0050173142237073, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9117211340641708, "Position_Factor": 0.9802148035352244, "Input_GP": 2, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 493.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.914212548015365, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 8.677777777777779, "Prior_PP_Share": 0, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9110121980224933, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.062091503267974, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9110121980224933, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9117211340641708, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 0, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff latest reported chart; October 21 final lineup pending", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. 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Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.05806053450270635, "goalHistoryGoals": 3.0, "goalHistoryShots": 51.0, "goalExpected": 0.0630142758361668, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.0630142758361668, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.06106993041838938, "goalProbability": 0.06106993041838938, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.0576714070990866, "modelSOG": 1.085320284697509, "historyGames": 65, "seasonGames": { "2025": 61, "2026": 4 }, "historyGoals": 3.0, "historyShots": 51.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.058823529411764705, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.05806053450270635, "goalieFactor": 0.9618500831522029, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8476880", "name": "Tom Wilson", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "position": "R", "currentGP": 9, "currentSOG": 2.111111111111111, "priorSOG": 2.125, "currentTOI": 18.63888888888889, "currentFiveTOI": 12.344444444444443, "ppShare": 0.5160905840286055, "rate": 1.9384999451398497, "fifty": 1.8935152474445358, "inputs": { "Player": "Tom Wilson", "Player_ID": "8476880", "Team": "WSH", "Opponent": "BUF", "Position": "R", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.8323247717190818, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.7602272509236614, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 9, "Prior_GP": 72, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 7.020702070207021, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.833987240285217, "Current_PP_SOG60": 5.542725173210162, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 11.720193576770788, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 12.712083333333332, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 12.344444444444443, "Current_PP_Share": 0.5160905840286055, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.6011998579719926, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1299.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2517.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 5, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.500555555555556, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 2.4376060498224152, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 2.322694345119852, "Other_State_SOG": 0.29444444444444445, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9496227273390297, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 2.125, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:49.185258+00:00", "priorGP": 72, "currentTotalSOG": 19.0, "currentPPTOI": 2.4055555555555554, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.11 SOG/game in 9 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 9 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 3.177, "currentIXG": 0.353, "priorTOI": 19.46273148148148, "priorPPTOI": 2.6307870370370368, "deploymentChange": -0.823842592592591, "ppTOIChange": -0.2252314814814813, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021213", "date": "20260404", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 17.316666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025021028", "date": "20260312", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 8.0, "toi": 20.566666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020186", "date": "20251101", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 15.533333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024021171", "date": "20250330", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 20.833333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2024020637", "date": "20250106", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 2.0, "attempts": 8.0, "toi": 22.066666666666666 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 6, "h2hSOG": 2.4, "opponentDefense": { "team": "BUF", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 257.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 25.7, "mostAllowedRank": 24, "fiveSogAllowed60": 21.645723550871505, "pkSogAllowed60": 62.21198156682028, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 40.1, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 61.0, "L": 55.0, "D": 65.0, "C": 76.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.6, "L": 5.5, "R": 6.1, "D": 6.5 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 30.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.25, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 25.7, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.1, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8480045", "team": "BUF", "name": "Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 8, "savePct": 0.8629441624365483, "gaa": 3.5349310833909153, "gsax": -3.6580000000000013, "goalsAllowed": 27.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 23.342, "shotsAgainst": 197.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.035448902624297, "factor": 1.035448902624297, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T15:43:35.500Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.17648707238257474, "goalHistoryGoals": 65.0, "goalHistoryShots": 341.0, "goalExpected": 0.3936402962739998, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.40759441280561626, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.32540333246140474, "goalProbability": 0.3347513595575808, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.9348027096176048, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 9, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 2.230420001645772, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 7.020702070207021, "Current_PP_SOG60": 5.542725173210162, "Current_5v5_Min": 12.344444444444443, "Current_PP_Share": 0.5160905840286055, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.500555555555556, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 2.322694345119852, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.4444444444444444, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.922717716387106, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.1429256259066152, "Position_Factor": 1.0251297016861218, "Input_GP": 9, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1299.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2517.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.833987240285217, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 11.720193576770788, "Prior_5v5_Min": 13.569907407407406, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.6011998579719926, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0666666666666664, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.382352941176471, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0666666666666664, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.1429256259066152, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 6.644295302013423, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 6.2445793581960105, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 2.6666666666666665 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 2.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021213", "date": "20260404", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 17.316666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025021028", "date": "20260312", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 8.0, "toi": 20.566666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020186", "date": "20251101", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 15.533333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024021171", "date": "20250330", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 20.833333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2024020637", "date": "20250106", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 2.0, "attempts": 8.0, "toi": 22.066666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020480", "date": "20241214", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 2.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 19.633333333333333 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "NHL.com October 20 game-specific projected lineup", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 140, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 61, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480045", "goalieName": "Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8476880", "goals": 6, "sog": 14, "shootingPct": 0.42857142857142855, "gamesWithAttempts": 7, "recordedAttempts": 22, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021028", "date": "20260312", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 4, "attempts": 7 }, { "gameId": "2025020186", "date": "20251101", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2024020637", "date": "20250106", "season": 2024, "goals": 2, "sog": 4, "attempts": 6 }, { "gameId": "2024020480", "date": "20241214", "season": 2024, "goals": 2, "sog": 2, "attempts": 4 }, { "gameId": "2023021255", "date": "20240411", "season": 2023, "goals": 1, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2 }, { "gameId": "2022021076", "date": "20230315", "season": 2022, "goals": 1, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2022020947", "date": "20230226", "season": 2022, "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 1 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480045", "goalieName": "Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen", "opponent": "WSH", "games": 5, "availableGames": 10, "shotsAgainst": 138.0, "goalsAgainst": 13.0, "savePct": 0.9057971014492754, "gaa": 2.5547246028713357, "gsax": 1.2270000000000003, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021028", "date": "20260312", "goalieTeam": "BUF", "opponent": "WSH", "shotsAgainst": 22.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3513.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.736 }, { "gameId": "2025020186", "date": "20251101", "goalieTeam": "BUF", "opponent": "WSH", "shotsAgainst": 34.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3868.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.692 }, { "gameId": "2024020637", "date": "20250106", "goalieTeam": "BUF", "opponent": "WSH", "shotsAgainst": 28.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3900.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.29 }, { "gameId": "2024020480", "date": "20241214", "goalieTeam": "BUF", "opponent": "WSH", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3438.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.234 }, { "gameId": "2023021255", "date": "20240411", "goalieTeam": "BUF", "opponent": "WSH", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.275 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 2.230420001645772, "adjustedSOG": 2.230420001645772, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 2.230420001645772, "adjustedSOG": 2.230420001645772, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.17648707238257474, "goalHistoryGoals": 65.0, "goalHistoryShots": 341.0, "goalExpected": 0.3936402962739998, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.40759441280561626, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.32540333246140474, "goalProbability": 0.3347513595575808, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.9348027096176048 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12830798920715472, "modelSOG": 2.230420001645772, "historyGames": 162, "seasonGames": { "2024": 81, "2025": 72, "2026": 9 }, "historyGoals": 65.0, "historyShots": 341.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.1906158357771261, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.17648707238257474, "goalieFactor": 1.035448902624297, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 63.307109053766744, "btb": { "id": "8476880", "name": "Tom Wilson", "score": 63.307109053766744, "components": { "Goal model": 94.88372093023256, "SOG model": 81.16279069767442, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 88.83720930232558, "Goalie": 7.794117647058823, "Team H2H": 63.952349869451695, "Goalie H2H": 60.16240157480315 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 6, "goalieH2HShots": 14, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 48 } }, { "id": "8484471", "name": "Emmitt Finnie", "team": "DET", "opponent": "CGY", "position": "C", "currentGP": 9, "currentSOG": 2.3333333333333335, "priorSOG": 1.4634146341463414, "currentTOI": 17.703703703703706, "currentFiveTOI": 14.135185185185186, "ppShare": 0.26317460317460317, "rate": 1.712213688333151, "fifty": 2.000921228281943, "inputs": { "Player": "Emmitt Finnie", "Player_ID": "8484471", "Team": "DET", "Opponent": "CGY", "Position": "C", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.4598872053618774, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.509648209886804, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 9, "Prior_GP": 82, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 7.546181055941307, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.581308816917567, "Current_PP_SOG60": 17.370325693606755, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 7.717041800643087, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 13.82761743450768, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 14.135185185185186, "Current_PP_Share": 0.26317460317460317, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.2505428236034281, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 829.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3150.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 5, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.430208333333333, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 1.4085149648727555, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 1.429092923280423, "Other_State_SOG": 0.06598915989159891, "Environment_Proxy": 1.096640755468006, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.4634146341463414, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:49.212326+00:00", "priorGP": 82, "currentTotalSOG": 21.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.5351851851851852, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.33 SOG/game in 9 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 9 games. 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Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482445", "goalieName": "Devin Cooley", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8484471", "goals": 0, "sog": 4, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 4, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020477", "date": "20251210", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 4, "attempts": 4 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482445", "goalieName": "Devin Cooley", "opponent": "DET", "games": 1, "availableGames": 1, "shotsAgainst": 29.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "savePct": 0.8620689655172413, "gaa": 4.1248925809223715, "gsax": -1.0219999999999998, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020477", "date": "20251210", "goalieTeam": "CGY", "opponent": "DET", "shotsAgainst": 29.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3491.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.978 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 2.3617640437171166, "adjustedSOG": 2.3617640437171166, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 2.409963309915425, "adjustedSOG": 2.3617640437171166, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. 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Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.838, "currentIXG": 0.22975, "priorTOI": 19.66862745098039, "priorPPTOI": 1.2083333333333335, "deploymentChange": 1.4647058823529413, "ppTOIChange": -0.26875000000000016, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021265", "date": "20260411", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "DET", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 21.2 }, { "gameId": "2025021005", "date": "20260308", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "DET", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 20.75 }, { "gameId": "2025020354", "date": "20251124", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "DET", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 22.833333333333332 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 2.6666666666666665, "opponentDefense": { "team": "DET", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 243.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.0, "mostAllowedRank": 17, "fiveSogAllowed60": 24.49072666463971, "pkSogAllowed60": 47.14573539288113, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 41.22222222222222, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 39.0, "C": 96.0, "D": 73.0, "L": 35.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.666666666666666, "L": 3.888888888888889, "R": 4.333333333333333, "D": 8.11111111111111 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 29.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 2, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 28.5, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.0, "oppPosSogAllowed": 8.11111111111111, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8476434", "team": "DET", "name": "John Gibson", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 6, "savePct": 0.8734177215189873, "gaa": 3.5755077717634207, "gsax": -1.6310000000000002, "goalsAllowed": 20.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 18.369, "shotsAgainst": 158.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0182492009293351, "factor": 1.0182492009293351, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T17:52:44.365Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.07782570883397731, "goalHistoryGoals": 13.0, "goalHistoryShots": 141.0, "goalExpected": 0.14291035499185453, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.1455183547749835, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.13316822744612428, "goalProbability": 0.13542597913329352, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.22577516871692405, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 8, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.836287226072298, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.669929125885926, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 18.51875, "Current_PP_Share": 0.31146408839779005, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.265740740740741, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.3286250511561286, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9801217943191682, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9957661672519493, "Position_Factor": 1.0134661609539863, "Input_GP": 8, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 451.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1448.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.9516465193830763, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 10.223123732251521, "Prior_5v5_Min": 17.639705882352942, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.3115468866273281, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0493069863270275, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.34640522875817, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0493069863270275, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9957661672519493, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.669929125885926, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 1.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 2.6666666666666665 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021265", "date": "20260411", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "DET", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 21.2 }, { "gameId": "2025021005", "date": "20260308", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "DET", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 20.75 }, { "gameId": "2025020354", "date": "20251124", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "DET", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 22.833333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2024021303", "date": "20250416", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "DET", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 21.766666666666666 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Reviewed October22 projected lineup and coach reports", "ppAssignmentSourceDate": "2026-10-12T17:12:03.968Z", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 129, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 20, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476434", "goalieName": "John Gibson", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8483495", "goals": 0, "sog": 9, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 3, "recordedAttempts": 11, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021265", "date": "20260411", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 4, "attempts": 4 }, { "gameId": "2025021005", "date": "20260308", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 3 }, { "gameId": "2023020476", "date": "20231217", "season": 2023, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 4 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8476434", "goalieName": "John Gibson", "opponent": "CGY", "games": 5, "availableGames": 25, "shotsAgainst": 152.0, "goalsAgainst": 14.0, "savePct": 0.9078947368421053, "gaa": 2.9964328180737216, "gsax": 0.16800000000000015, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021063", "date": "20260316", "goalieTeam": "DET", "opponent": "CGY", "shotsAgainst": 27.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3589.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.703 }, { "gameId": "2025020477", "date": "20251210", "goalieTeam": "DET", "opponent": "CGY", "shotsAgainst": 37.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.965 }, { "gameId": "2024021203", "date": "20250403", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "CGY", "shotsAgainst": 26.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 2381.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.555 }, { "gameId": "2024020818", "date": "20250130", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "CGY", "shotsAgainst": 29.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3525.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.091 }, { "gameId": "2024020648", "date": "20250107", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "CGY", "shotsAgainst": 33.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3725.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.854 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.836287226072298, "adjustedSOG": 1.836287226072298, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.836287226072298, "adjustedSOG": 1.836287226072298, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.07782570883397731, "goalHistoryGoals": 13.0, "goalHistoryShots": 141.0, "goalExpected": 0.14291035499185453, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.14291035499185453, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.13316822744612428, "goalProbability": 0.13316822744612428, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.0575599582898853, "modelSOG": 1.836287226072298, "historyGames": 103, "seasonGames": { "2024": 27, "2025": 68, "2026": 8 }, "historyGoals": 13.0, "historyShots": 141.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.09219858156028368, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.07782570883397731, "goalieFactor": 1.0182492009293351, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 46.93947719785062, "btb": { "id": "8483495", "name": "Simon Nemec", "score": 46.93947719785062, "components": { "Goal model": 50.0, "SOG model": 69.53488372093024, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 70.46511627906976, "Goalie": 2.5, "Team H2H": 45.41215964192465, "Goalie H2H": 43.54397437608435 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": 9, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 252 } }, { "id": "8484387", "name": "Matvei Michkov", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "ANA", "position": "R", "currentGP": 12, "currentSOG": 1.3333333333333333, "priorSOG": 2.0123456790123457, "currentTOI": 15.113888888888889, "currentFiveTOI": 11.455555555555556, "ppShare": 0.6055232558139535, "rate": 1.9804357453261896, "fifty": 1.7713241584011126, "inputs": { "Player": "Matvei Michkov", "Player_ID": "8484387", "Team": "PHI", "Opponent": "ANA", "Position": "R", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 2.1684471458520624, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.876002135657056, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 12, "Prior_GP": 81, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.4917555771096023, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 7.635977980910055, "Current_PP_SOG60": 12.097935669707153, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 8.875192604006163, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 11.68574074074074, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 11.455555555555556, "Current_PP_Share": 0.6055232558139535, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.4704235491458158, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2083.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3440.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 7, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.042592592592593, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 2.8490312503781365, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 3.0534070844099914, "Other_State_SOG": 0.14166666666666666, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9949214190083264, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 2.0123456790123457, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/philadelphia-flyers/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:49.264940+00:00", "priorGP": 81, "currentTotalSOG": 16.0, "currentPPTOI": 2.8930555555555557, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.33 SOG/game in 12 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 12 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 3.649, "currentIXG": 0.3040833333333333, "priorTOI": 14.840329218106994, "priorPPTOI": 2.003086419753086, "deploymentChange": 0.2735596707818946, "ppTOIChange": 0.8899691358024695, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021082", "date": "20260318", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 14.283333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020675", "date": "20250111", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 15.95 }, { "gameId": "2024020568", "date": "20241228", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 9.016666666666667 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 3, "h2hSOG": 2.3333333333333335, "opponentDefense": { "team": "ANA", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 239.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 26.555555555555557, "mostAllowedRank": 18, "fiveSogAllowed60": 25.834281008587897, "pkSogAllowed60": 38.93928820655967, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 43.333333333333336, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 54.0, "C": 91.0, "R": 57.0, "L": 37.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.11111111111111, "L": 4.111111111111111, "R": 6.333333333333333, "D": 6.0 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 28.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.2, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 26.555555555555557, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.333333333333333, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8480843", "team": "ANA", "name": "Lukas Dostal", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.8813559322033898, "gaa": 3.1634446397188047, "gsax": 2.846, "goalsAllowed": 21.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 23.846, "shotsAgainst": 177.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9815060369171769, "factor": 0.9815060369171769, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T16:38:16.530Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.13537948924170218, "goalHistoryGoals": 52.0, "goalHistoryShots": 379.0, "goalExpected": 0.1850787021890786, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.18165586350337695, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.1689611233004893, "goalProbability": 0.16611173757205738, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.2849385728431908, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 12, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.3671103593739007, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.4917555771096023, "Current_PP_SOG60": 12.097935669707153, "Current_5v5_Min": 11.455555555555556, "Current_PP_Share": 0.6055232558139535, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.042592592592593, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 3.0534070844099914, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.08333333333333333, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0050173142237073, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9117211340641708, "Position_Factor": 1.0244899837906722, "Input_GP": 12, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2083.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3440.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 7.635977980910055, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 8.875192604006163, "Prior_5v5_Min": 12.22283950617284, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.4704235491458158, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0836928386540121, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.382352941176471, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0836928386540121, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9117211340641708, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 3.8538739462063427, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 9.713977334052887, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 2.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021082", "date": "20260318", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 14.283333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020675", "date": "20250111", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 15.95 }, { "gameId": "2024020568", "date": "20241228", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "ANA", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 9.016666666666667 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff latest reported chart; October 21 final lineup pending", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 176, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 35, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480843", "goalieName": "Lukas Dostal", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8484387", "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 2, "recordedAttempts": 4, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021082", "date": "20260318", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 3 }, { "gameId": "2024020568", "date": "20241228", "season": 2024, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480843", "goalieName": "Lukas Dostal", "opponent": "PHI", "games": 5, "availableGames": 5, "shotsAgainst": 155.0, "goalsAgainst": 18.0, "savePct": 0.8838709677419355, "gaa": 3.646595385481148, "gsax": -2.507999999999999, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021082", "date": "20260318", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 28.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3704.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.611 }, { "gameId": "2025020670", "date": "20260106", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 38.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3560.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.171 }, { "gameId": "2024020568", "date": "20241228", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3472.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.781 }, { "gameId": "2023020208", "date": "20231110", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 35.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3450.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.281 }, { "gameId": "2023020117", "date": "20231028", "goalieTeam": "ANA", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3584.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.648 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.3671103593739007, "adjustedSOG": 1.3671103593739007, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.3671103593739007, "adjustedSOG": 1.3671103593739007, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.13537948924170218, "goalHistoryGoals": 52.0, "goalHistoryShots": 379.0, "goalExpected": 0.1850787021890786, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.1850787021890786, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.1689611233004893, "goalProbability": 0.1689611233004893, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12846775346775346, "modelSOG": 1.3671103593739007, "historyGames": 173, "seasonGames": { "2024": 80, "2025": 81, "2026": 12 }, "historyGoals": 52.0, "historyShots": 379.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.13720316622691292, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.13537948924170218, "goalieFactor": 0.9815060369171769, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 56.601888354735635, "btb": { "id": "8484387", "name": "Matvei Michkov", "score": 56.601888354735635, "components": { "Goal model": 62.55813953488372, "SOG model": 50.69767441860465, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 85.5813953488372, "Goalie": 44.85294117647059, "Team H2H": 57.139987949387425, "Goalie H2H": 49.40944881889764 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 3, "goalieH2HShots": 3, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 129 } }, { "id": "8484227", "name": "Will Smith", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "BOS", "position": "R", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 2.5, "priorSOG": 2.4057971014492754, "currentTOI": 19.973333333333333, "currentFiveTOI": 15.290000000000001, "ppShare": 0.6941284967722102, "rate": 2.556154712409389, "fifty": 2.506747091353714, "inputs": { "Player": "Will Smith", "Player_ID": "8484227", "Team": "SJS", "Opponent": "BOS", "Position": "C", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 2.279244109444328, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.876549461188322, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 10, "Prior_GP": 69, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 6.278613472858077, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.780926522993382, "Current_PP_SOG60": 9.565987599645704, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 12.300046591085572, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 14.973289855072462, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 15.290000000000001, "Current_PP_Share": 0.6941284967722102, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.6190004066894973, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2258.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3253.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 5, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.0425, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 3.3864929267012465, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 3.50014294497387, "Other_State_SOG": 0.16043478260869565, "Environment_Proxy": 1.0253180054689388, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 2.4057971014492754, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:49.290581+00:00", "priorGP": 69, "currentTotalSOG": 25.0, "currentPPTOI": 3.763333333333333, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.50 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 4.375, "currentIXG": 0.4375, "priorTOI": 18.183091787439615, "priorPPTOI": 3.1106280193236713, "deploymentChange": 1.7902415458937178, "ppTOIChange": 0.6527053140096619, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2026020105", "date": "20261013", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 20.833333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2025021027", "date": "20260312", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 16.816666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020351", "date": "20251123", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "home", "sog": 7.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 9.0, "toi": 15.416666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024021117", "date": "20250322", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 16.15 }, { "gameId": "2024020740", "date": "20250120", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 16.683333333333334 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 5, "h2hSOG": 3.2, "opponentDefense": { "team": "BOS", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 280.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 28.0, "mostAllowedRank": 11, "fiveSogAllowed60": 26.539776154413243, "pkSogAllowed60": 48.89206576125804, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 42.4, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 68.0, "R": 50.0, "L": 68.0, "C": 94.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.4, "L": 6.8, "R": 5.0, "D": 6.8 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 26.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 25.0, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 28.0, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.0, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8480280", "team": "BOS", "name": "Jeremy Swayman", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 8, "savePct": 0.9279279279279279, "gaa": 1.976189659313137, "gsax": 7.695, "goalsAllowed": 16.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 23.695, "shotsAgainst": 222.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9412127550171275, "factor": 0.9412127550171275, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T14:59:19.712Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.13838762703847415, "goalHistoryGoals": 45.0, "goalHistoryShots": 318.0, "goalExpected": 0.3266793520063816, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.3074747729091364, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.2786850058448368, "goalProbability": 0.26469858317051803, "goalAdjustmentPP": -1.3986422674318766, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 2.3606109808903586, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 6.278613472858077, "Current_PP_SOG60": 9.565987599645704, "Current_5v5_Min": 15.290000000000001, "Current_PP_Share": 0.6941284967722102, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.0425, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 3.50014294497387, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.3, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0194233133624404, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.013580746919003, "Position_Factor": 0.9879488680718189, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2258.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3253.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.780926522993382, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 12.300046591085572, "Prior_5v5_Min": 14.234299516908212, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.6190004066894973, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9644808743169399, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.382352941176471, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9644808743169399, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.013580746919003, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 6.278613472858077, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 9.565987599645704, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 5.0 }, { "season": "2026", "label": "2026–27", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 4.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2026020105", "date": "20261013", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 20.833333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2025021027", "date": "20260312", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 16.816666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020351", "date": "20251123", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "home", "sog": 7.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 9.0, "toi": 15.416666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024021117", "date": "20250322", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 16.15 }, { "gameId": "2024020740", "date": "20250120", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 16.683333333333334 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Reviewed October22 projected lineup and coach reports", "ppAssignmentSourceDate": "2026-10-13T18:05:17.352Z", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 166, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 57, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480280", "goalieName": "Jeremy Swayman", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8484227", "goals": 0, "sog": 14, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 3, "recordedAttempts": 14, "log": [ { "gameId": "2026020105", "date": "20261013", "season": 2026, "goals": 0, "sog": 4, "attempts": 4 }, { "gameId": "2025021027", "date": "20260312", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 3 }, { "gameId": "2025020351", "date": "20251123", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 7, "attempts": 7 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480280", "goalieName": "Jeremy Swayman", "opponent": "SJS", "games": 5, "availableGames": 6, "shotsAgainst": 123.0, "goalsAgainst": 9.0, "savePct": 0.926829268292683, "gaa": 2.2632020117351215, "gsax": 2.58, "log": [ { "gameId": "2026020105", "date": "20261013", "goalieTeam": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "shotsAgainst": 38.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.146 }, { "gameId": "2025021027", "date": "20260312", "goalieTeam": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "shotsAgainst": 28.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3406.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.91 }, { "gameId": "2025020351", "date": "20251123", "goalieTeam": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3588.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.577 }, { "gameId": "2023020340", "date": "20231130", "goalieTeam": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "shotsAgainst": 26.0, "goalsAgainst": 0.0, "seconds": 3574.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.886 }, { "gameId": "2022020748", "date": "20230122", "goalieTeam": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "shotsAgainst": 1.0, "goalsAgainst": 0.0, "seconds": 148.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 0.061 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 2.3606109808903586, "adjustedSOG": 2.3606109808903586, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 2.4087867151942435, "adjustedSOG": 2.3606109808903586, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.13838762703847415, "goalHistoryGoals": 45.0, "goalHistoryShots": 318.0, "goalExpected": 0.3333462775575322, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.31374976827462897, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.2834779643081121, "goalProbability": 0.2692981499307754, "goalAdjustmentPP": -1.417981437733673 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.128460281020822, "modelSOG": 2.3606109808903586, "historyGames": 153, "seasonGames": { "2024": 74, "2025": 69, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 45.0, "historyShots": 318.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.14150943396226415, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.13838762703847415, "goalieFactor": 0.9412127550171275, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 61.348265332763674, "btb": { "id": "8484227", "name": "Will Smith", "score": 61.348265332763674, "components": { "Goal model": 87.90697674418605, "SOG model": 83.25581395348837, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 94.65116279069767, "Goalie": 34.26470588235294, "Team H2H": 51.697127937336816, "Goalie H2H": 39.57923228346456 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 5, "goalieH2HShots": 14, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 74 } }, { "id": "8482671", "name": "Owen Power", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "WSH", "position": "D", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 1.3, "priorSOG": 1.4814814814814814, "currentTOI": 26.69166666666667, "currentFiveTOI": 21.028333333333332, "ppShare": 0.4962311557788945, "rate": 1.794956553795621, "fifty": 1.6365704197849538, "inputs": { "Player": "Owen Power", "Player_ID": "8482671", "Team": "BUF", "Opponent": "WSH", "Position": "D", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.6605550147831587, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.402515982263866, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 10, "Prior_GP": 81, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.567963858286439, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.43952179225139, "Current_PP_SOG60": 4.556962025316456, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 5.66546762589928, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 20.12582098765432, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 21.028333333333332, "Current_PP_Share": 0.4962311557788945, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.19095515797663007, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1580.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3184.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 5, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.493148148148148, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 2.222793369819773, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 2.725871254420249, "Other_State_SOG": 0.07555555555555556, "Environment_Proxy": 1.0834850655013406, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.4814814814814814, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/buffalo-sabres/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:49.314154+00:00", "priorGP": 81, "currentTotalSOG": 13.0, "currentPPTOI": 2.6333333333333333, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.30 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.093, "currentIXG": 0.1093, "priorTOI": 21.65267489711934, "priorPPTOI": 0.9152263374485597, "deploymentChange": 5.03899176954733, "ppTOIChange": 1.7181069958847734, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021213", "date": "20260404", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 20.366666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025021028", "date": "20260312", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 21.483333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020186", "date": "20251101", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 19.9 }, { "gameId": "2024021171", "date": "20250330", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 18.333333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2024020637", "date": "20250106", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 19.6 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 6, "h2hSOG": 0.6, "opponentDefense": { "team": "WSH", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 263.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 29.22222222222222, "mostAllowedRank": 7, "fiveSogAllowed60": 28.540383918869974, "pkSogAllowed60": 52.820345614607106, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.111111111111114, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "L": 48.0, "D": 68.0, "C": 72.0, "R": 75.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 8.0, "L": 5.333333333333333, "R": 8.333333333333334, "D": 7.555555555555555 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 29.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27.5, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 29.22222222222222, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.555555555555555, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8479292", "team": "WSH", "name": "Charlie Lindgren", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 2, "savePct": 0.896551724137931, "gaa": 3.061224489795918, "gsax": 0.2989999999999995, "goalsAllowed": 6.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 6.2989999999999995, "shotsAgainst": 58.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.99868053226692, "factor": 0.99868053226692, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T14:45:41.433Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.06119415220112206, "goalHistoryGoals": 17.0, "goalHistoryShots": 272.0, "goalExpected": 0.07980469494350882, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.07969939522358258, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.07670334671633403, "goalProbability": 0.07660611871838378, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.009722799795024162, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.3041228952926898, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.567963858286439, "Current_PP_SOG60": 4.556962025316456, "Current_5v5_Min": 21.028333333333332, "Current_PP_Share": 0.4962311557788945, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.493148148148148, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 2.725871254420249, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.2, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.053751909733539, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0558974457897532, "Position_Factor": 0.9950902926097296, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1580.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3184.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.43952179225139, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 5.66546762589928, "Prior_5v5_Min": 18.019958847736625, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.19095515797663007, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0134856714740588, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.34640522875817, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0134856714740588, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0558974457897532, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 2.214800492177887, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 4.556962025316456, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 0.6666666666666666 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 0.6666666666666666 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021213", "date": "20260404", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 20.366666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025021028", "date": "20260312", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 21.483333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020186", "date": "20251101", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 19.9 }, { "gameId": "2024021171", "date": "20250330", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 18.333333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2024020637", "date": "20250106", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 19.6 }, { "gameId": "2024020480", "date": "20241214", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 28.55 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff latest reported chart; October 21 final lineup pending", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 151, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 11, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479292", "goalieName": "Charlie Lindgren", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8482671", "goals": 0, "sog": 8, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 7, "recordedAttempts": 12, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021028", "date": "20260312", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2025020186", "date": "20251101", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2024020637", "date": "20250106", "season": 2024, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2023021255", "date": "20240411", "season": 2023, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2023021189", "date": "20240402", "season": 2023, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 3 }, { "gameId": "2022021076", "date": "20230315", "season": 2022, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 3 }, { "gameId": "2022020947", "date": "20230226", "season": 2022, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479292", "goalieName": "Charlie Lindgren", "opponent": "BUF", "games": 5, "availableGames": 8, "shotsAgainst": 128.0, "goalsAgainst": 16.0, "savePct": 0.875, "gaa": 3.275891486094523, "gsax": -2.283, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021028", "date": "20260312", "goalieTeam": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.161 }, { "gameId": "2025020186", "date": "20251101", "goalieTeam": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3892.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.677 }, { "gameId": "2024020637", "date": "20250106", "goalieTeam": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "shotsAgainst": 27.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3900.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.647 }, { "gameId": "2023021255", "date": "20240411", "goalieTeam": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "shotsAgainst": 16.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3458.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.149 }, { "gameId": "2023021189", "date": "20240402", "goalieTeam": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "shotsAgainst": 31.0, "goalsAgainst": 6.0, "seconds": 2733.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.083 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.3041228952926898, "adjustedSOG": 1.3041228952926898, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.3307376482578468, "adjustedSOG": 1.3041228952926898, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.06119415220112206, "goalHistoryGoals": 17.0, "goalHistoryShots": 272.0, "goalExpected": 0.0814333621872539, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.0813259134934516, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.07820586584782385, "goalProbability": 0.07810681495080513, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.00990508970187265 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05764224618817404, "modelSOG": 1.3041228952926898, "historyGames": 170, "seasonGames": { "2024": 79, "2025": 81, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 17.0, "historyShots": 272.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.0625, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.06119415220112206, "goalieFactor": 0.99868053226692, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 43.86444987764515, "btb": { "id": "8482671", "name": "Owen Power", "score": 43.86444987764515, "components": { "Goal model": 27.906976744186046, "SOG model": 47.906976744186046, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 29.302325581395348, "Goalie": 87.05882352941177, "Team H2H": 31.837467362924283, "Goalie H2H": 44.75970676079283 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 6, "goalieH2HShots": 8, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 291 } }, { "id": "8480796", "name": "Martin Fehervary", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "position": "D", "currentGP": 9, "currentSOG": 0.2222222222222222, "priorSOG": 0.9012345679012346, "currentTOI": 21.964814814814815, "currentFiveTOI": 17.037037037037038, "ppShare": 0.03694874851013111, "rate": 0.8405466846164721, "fifty": 0.5947830743466946, "inputs": { "Player": "Martin Fehrvry", "Player_ID": "8480796", "Team": "WSH", "Opponent": "BUF", "Position": "D", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 0.7583293869986547, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 0.50746700320293, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 9, "Prior_GP": 81, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 0.391304347826087, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.227860437918264, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 16.676234567901233, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 17.037037037037038, "Current_PP_Share": 0.03694874851013111, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.009968567816595783, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 93.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2517.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 5, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.500555555555556, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.12986215474504065, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.1662898953780956, "Other_State_SOG": 0.05555555555555556, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9496227273390297, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 0.9012345679012346, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:49.337339+00:00", "priorGP": 81, "currentTotalSOG": 2.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.17222222222222222, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.22 SOG/game in 9 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 9 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.827, "currentIXG": 0.09188888888888888, "priorTOI": 19.281275720164608, "priorPPTOI": 0.043621399176954734, "deploymentChange": 2.6835390946502073, "ppTOIChange": 0.1286008230452675, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021213", "date": "20260404", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 21.166666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2025021028", "date": "20260312", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 19.933333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020186", "date": "20251101", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 17.916666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2024021171", "date": "20250330", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 20.1 }, { "gameId": "2024020637", "date": "20250106", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 19.3 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 6, "h2hSOG": 0.8, "opponentDefense": { "team": "BUF", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 257.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 25.7, "mostAllowedRank": 24, "fiveSogAllowed60": 21.645723550871505, "pkSogAllowed60": 62.21198156682028, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 40.1, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 61.0, "L": 55.0, "D": 65.0, "C": 76.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.6, "L": 5.5, "R": 6.1, "D": 6.5 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 30.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.25, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 25.7, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.5, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8480045", "team": "BUF", "name": "Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 8, "savePct": 0.8629441624365483, "gaa": 3.5349310833909153, "gsax": -3.6580000000000013, "goalsAllowed": 27.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 23.342, "shotsAgainst": 197.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.035448902624297, "factor": 1.035448902624297, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T15:43:35.500Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.06280590928671455, "goalHistoryGoals": 10.0, "goalHistoryShots": 151.0, "goalExpected": 0.013554863725802644, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.014035368770104239, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.013463410240000967, "goalProbability": 0.013937332177709445, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.047392193770847725, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 9, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 0.2158214709371293, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 0.391304347826087, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 17.037037037037038, "Current_PP_Share": 0.03694874851013111, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.500555555555556, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.1662898953780956, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.1111111111111111, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.922717716387106, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.1429256259066152, "Position_Factor": 0.9922053498483736, "Input_GP": 9, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 93.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2517.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.227860437918264, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 15.834362139917694, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.009968567816595783, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9423932384341638, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.34640522875817, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9423932384341638, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.1429256259066152, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 0.44047473387984826, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 1.3333333333333333 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 0.6666666666666666 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021213", "date": "20260404", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 21.166666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2025021028", "date": "20260312", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 19.933333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020186", "date": "20251101", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 17.916666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2024021171", "date": "20250330", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 20.1 }, { "gameId": "2024020637", "date": "20250106", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 19.3 }, { "gameId": "2024020480", "date": "20241214", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 17.833333333333332 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "NHL.com October 20 game-specific projected lineup", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 101, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480045", "goalieName": "Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8480796", "goals": 2, "sog": 12, "shootingPct": 0.16666666666666666, "gamesWithAttempts": 7, "recordedAttempts": 15, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021028", "date": "20260312", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2025020186", "date": "20251101", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2024020480", "date": "20241214", "season": 2024, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2 }, { "gameId": "2023021189", "date": "20240402", "season": 2023, "goals": 1, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2 }, { "gameId": "2022021076", "date": "20230315", "season": 2022, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2022020947", "date": "20230226", "season": 2022, "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 5 }, { "gameId": "2021020419", "date": "20211211", "season": 2021, "goals": 1, "sog": 3, "attempts": 3 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480045", "goalieName": "Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen", "opponent": "WSH", "games": 5, "availableGames": 10, "shotsAgainst": 138.0, "goalsAgainst": 13.0, "savePct": 0.9057971014492754, "gaa": 2.5547246028713357, "gsax": 1.2270000000000003, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021028", "date": "20260312", "goalieTeam": "BUF", "opponent": "WSH", "shotsAgainst": 22.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3513.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.736 }, { "gameId": "2025020186", "date": "20251101", "goalieTeam": "BUF", "opponent": "WSH", "shotsAgainst": 34.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3868.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.692 }, { "gameId": "2024020637", "date": "20250106", "goalieTeam": "BUF", "opponent": "WSH", "shotsAgainst": 28.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3900.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.29 }, { "gameId": "2024020480", "date": "20241214", "goalieTeam": "BUF", "opponent": "WSH", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3438.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.234 }, { "gameId": "2023021255", "date": "20240411", "goalieTeam": "BUF", "opponent": "WSH", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.275 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.2158214709371293, "adjustedSOG": 0.2158214709371293, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.2158214709371293, "adjustedSOG": 0.2158214709371293, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.06280590928671455, "goalHistoryGoals": 10.0, "goalHistoryShots": 151.0, "goalExpected": 0.013554863725802644, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.014035368770104239, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.013463410240000967, "goalProbability": 0.013937332177709445, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.047392193770847725 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.057642832309653495, "modelSOG": 0.2158214709371293, "historyGames": 171, "seasonGames": { "2024": 81, "2025": 81, "2026": 9 }, "historyGoals": 10.0, "historyShots": 151.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.06622516556291391, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.06280590928671455, "goalieFactor": 1.035448902624297, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 34.643154383418576, "btb": { "id": "8480796", "name": "Martin Fehervary", "score": 34.643154383418576, "components": { "Goal model": 2.3255813953488373, "SOG model": 2.0930232558139537, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 24.41860465116279, "Goalie": 7.794117647058823, "Team H2H": 66.30221932114883, "Goalie H2H": 59.06781813563627 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 6, "goalieH2HShots": 12, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 409 } }, { "id": "8482177", "name": "Marat Khusnutdinov", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "position": "L", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 1.0, "priorSOG": 1.0129870129870129, "currentTOI": 13.680000000000001, "currentFiveTOI": 11.17, "ppShare": 0.0030499428135722455, "rate": 0.9784455352607628, "fifty": 1.0196155937101474, "inputs": { "Player": "Marat Khusnutdinov", "Player_ID": "8482177", "Team": "BOS", "Opponent": "SJS", "Position": "C", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 0.9336334383441529, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 0.9139439147390381, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 10, "Prior_GP": 77, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.371530886302597, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.1492761469011405, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 6.295907660020986, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 11.537376623376623, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 11.17, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0030499428135722455, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.1411310955560302, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 8.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2623.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 6, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.950833333333334, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.2201847906569296, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.015099758546193926, "Other_State_SOG": 0.05844155844155844, "Environment_Proxy": 1.0796680236682055, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.0129870129870129, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/boston-bruins/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:49.362851+00:00", "priorGP": 77, "currentTotalSOG": 10.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.013333333333333332, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.00 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.688, "currentIXG": 0.1688, "priorTOI": 14.50021645021645, "priorPPTOI": 0.6188311688311688, "deploymentChange": -0.8202164502164493, "ppTOIChange": -0.6054978354978355, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2026020105", "date": "20261013", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 14.283333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025021027", "date": "20260312", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 14.166666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020351", "date": "20251123", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 16.016666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024021117", "date": "20250322", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 13.833333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020683", "date": "20250111", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 9.883333333333333 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 6, "h2hSOG": 0.4, "opponentDefense": { "team": "SJS", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 286.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 28.6, "mostAllowedRank": 10, "fiveSogAllowed60": 25.210423540502322, "pkSogAllowed60": 49.90958408679928, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 47.8, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 86.0, "C": 94.0, "R": 53.0, "L": 53.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.4, "L": 5.3, "R": 5.3, "D": 8.6 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 30.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 29.833333333333332, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 28.6, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.3, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8477968", "team": "SJS", "name": "Alex Nedeljkovic", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 4, "savePct": 0.9173553719008265, "gaa": 2.372479240806643, "gsax": 4.638, "goalsAllowed": 10.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 14.638, "shotsAgainst": 121.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9618500831522029, "factor": 0.9618500831522029, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T16:06:01.887Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.1521610810011775, "goalHistoryGoals": 22.0, "goalHistoryShots": 129.0, "goalExpected": 0.15573671905698308, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.14979537617481042, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.14421552754359523, "goalProbability": 0.13911588419589277, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.5099643347702465, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.0234990316333117, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.371530886302597, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 11.17, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0030499428135722455, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.950833333333334, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.015099758546193926, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9930883597207428, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0259958714356598, "Position_Factor": 0.999629808538782, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 8.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2623.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.1492761469011405, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 6.295907660020986, "Prior_5v5_Min": 12.394588744588745, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.1411310955560302, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0234990316333117, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.062091503267974, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0234990316333117, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0259958714356598, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.371530886302597, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 0.3333333333333333 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.0 }, { "season": "2026", "label": "2026–27", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 1.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2026020105", "date": "20261013", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 14.283333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025021027", "date": "20260312", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 14.166666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020351", "date": "20251123", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 16.016666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024021117", "date": "20250322", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 13.833333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020683", "date": "20250111", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 9.883333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020219", "date": "20241107", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 12.116666666666667 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 104, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 11, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477968", "goalieName": "Alex Nedeljkovic", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8482177", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477968", "goalieName": "Alex Nedeljkovic", "opponent": "BOS", "games": 5, "availableGames": 8, "shotsAgainst": 134.0, "goalsAgainst": 17.0, "savePct": 0.8731343283582089, "gaa": 3.7850207186591627, "gsax": -3.2609999999999997, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021027", "date": "20260312", "goalieTeam": "SJS", "opponent": "BOS", "shotsAgainst": 41.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.661 }, { "gameId": "2024020952", "date": "20250301", "goalieTeam": "PIT", "opponent": "BOS", "shotsAgainst": 25.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3474.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.566 }, { "gameId": "2023021279", "date": "20240413", "goalieTeam": "PIT", "opponent": "BOS", "shotsAgainst": 16.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 1895.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.22 }, { "gameId": "2023021012", "date": "20240309", "goalieTeam": "PIT", "opponent": "BOS", "shotsAgainst": 23.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.955 }, { "gameId": "2023020589", "date": "20240104", "goalieTeam": "PIT", "opponent": "BOS", "shotsAgainst": 29.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.337 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.0234990316333117, "adjustedSOG": 1.0234990316333117, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.0234990316333117, "adjustedSOG": 1.0234990316333117, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.1521610810011775, "goalHistoryGoals": 22.0, "goalHistoryShots": 129.0, "goalExpected": 0.15573671905698308, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.15573671905698308, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.14421552754359523, "goalProbability": 0.14421552754359523, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1284488754926965, "modelSOG": 1.0234990316333117, "historyGames": 162, "seasonGames": { "2024": 75, "2025": 77, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 22.0, "historyShots": 129.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.17054263565891473, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.1521610810011775, "goalieFactor": 0.9618500831522029, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 52.20800063756148, "btb": { "id": "8482177", "name": "Marat Khusnutdinov", "score": 52.20800063756148, "components": { "Goal model": 53.95348837209303, "SOG model": 30.930232558139537, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 54.18604651162791, "Goalie": 97.5, "Team H2H": 31.34791122715405, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 6, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 185 } }, { "id": "8481593", "name": "Jayden Struble", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "PIT", "position": "D", "currentGP": 4, "currentSOG": 0.0, "priorSOG": 0.4406779661016949, "currentTOI": 17.4375, "currentFiveTOI": 16.775, "ppShare": 0.008955223880597015, "rate": 0.46141809398580663, "fifty": 0.3154340441650152, "inputs": { "Player": "Jayden Struble", "Player_ID": "8481593", "Team": "NSH", "Opponent": "PIT", "Position": "D", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 0.34433522355284635, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 0.23135575100943073, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 4, "Prior_GP": 59, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 0.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 1.7243174576730045, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 15.811906779661015, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 16.775, "Current_PP_Share": 0.008955223880597015, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.0025566935556965474, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 12.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1340.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 4, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.906041666666667, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.034517264578719745, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.043934701492537316, "Other_State_SOG": 0.04576271186440679, "Environment_Proxy": 1.0227478110844896, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 0.4406779661016949, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/nashville-predators/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:49.389510+00:00", "priorGP": 59, "currentTotalSOG": 0.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.05, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.00 SOG/game in 4 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 4 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.17600000000000002, "currentIXG": 0.044000000000000004, "priorTOI": 14.018079096045199, "priorPPTOI": 0.012146892655367232, "deploymentChange": 3.4194209039548014, "ppTOIChange": 0.03785310734463277, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2026020026", "date": "20261003", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "PIT", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 16.15 }, { "gameId": "2025020484", "date": "20251211", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "PIT", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 13.333333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020460", "date": "20241212", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "PIT", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 12.883333333333333 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 0.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "PIT", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 279.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.9, "mostAllowedRank": 12, "fiveSogAllowed60": 26.122338261223383, "pkSogAllowed60": 50.11600928074246, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 42.4, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 55.0, "L": 47.0, "D": 70.0, "C": 107.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.7, "L": 4.7, "R": 5.5, "D": 7.0 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 25.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 3, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 28.333333333333332, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.9, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.0, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8481668", "team": "PIT", "name": "Arturs Silovs", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 6, "savePct": 0.8662420382165605, "gaa": 3.5131744040150563, "gsax": -1.0760000000000005, "goalsAllowed": 21.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 19.924, "shotsAgainst": 157.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0136052553954562, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Likely starter per Daily Faceoff; no Model Goal adjustment until confirmed.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T15:01:09.604Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.05646105510887949, "goalHistoryGoals": 4.0, "goalHistoryShots": 73.0, "goalExpected": 0.0, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.0, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.0, "goalProbability": 0.0, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 4, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 0.0, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 16.775, "Current_PP_Share": 0.008955223880597015, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.906041666666667, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.043934701492537316, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.011083778612368, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0249142728068137, "Position_Factor": 0.9912682240844909, "Input_GP": 4, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 12.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1340.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 1.7243174576730045, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 13.564689265536725, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.0025566935556965474, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9764234875444839, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.34640522875817, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9764234875444839, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0249142728068137, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 0, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 0.0 }, { "season": "2026", "label": "2026–27", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 0.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2026020026", "date": "20261003", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "PIT", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 16.15 }, { "gameId": "2025020484", "date": "20251211", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "PIT", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 13.333333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020460", "date": "20241212", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "PIT", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 12.883333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020180", "date": "20241102", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "PIT", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 12.383333333333333 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 47, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481668", "goalieName": "Arturs Silovs", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8481593", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481668", "goalieName": "Arturs Silovs", "opponent": "NSH", "games": 2, "availableGames": 2, "shotsAgainst": 62.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "savePct": 0.9193548387096774, "gaa": 2.397123451857771, "gsax": 1.6559999999999997, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020281", "date": "20251114", "goalieTeam": "PIT", "opponent": "NSH", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3644.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.231 }, { "gameId": "2022021010", "date": "20230306", "goalieTeam": "VAN", "opponent": "NSH", "shotsAgainst": 32.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3865.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.425 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.0, "adjustedSOG": 0.0, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.0, "adjustedSOG": 0.0, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.05646105510887949, "goalHistoryGoals": 4.0, "goalHistoryShots": 73.0, "goalExpected": 0.0, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.0, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.0, "goalProbability": 0.0, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05767762533836152, "modelSOG": 0.0, "historyGames": 122, "seasonGames": { "2024": 56, "2025": 59, "2026": 7 }, "historyGoals": 4.0, "historyShots": 73.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.0547945205479452, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.05646105510887949, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 35.674418604651166, "btb": { "id": "8481593", "name": "Jayden Struble", "score": 35.674418604651166, "components": { "Goal model": 0.6976744186046512, "SOG model": 0.6976744186046512, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 30.0, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 50.0, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral", "Team H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Likely", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 401 } }, { "id": "8482077", "name": "Dylan Holloway", "team": "STL", "opponent": "CAR", "position": "L", "currentGP": 9, "currentSOG": 1.7777777777777777, "priorSOG": 2.7457627118644066, "currentTOI": 17.907407407407405, "currentFiveTOI": 14.27222222222222, "ppShare": 0.5465909090909091, "rate": 2.3630130204476645, "fifty": 2.085893878162102, "inputs": { "Player": "Dylan Holloway", "Player_ID": "8482077", "Team": "STL", "Opponent": "CAR", "Position": "L", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 2.624095789923586, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 2.3679004810799795, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 9, "Prior_GP": 59, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 6.072401712728688, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 8.163728102500142, "Current_PP_SOG60": 4.98960498960499, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 13.814274750575596, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 14.475047080979284, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 14.27222222222222, "Current_PP_Share": 0.5465909090909091, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.5353983283855922, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1443.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2640.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 5, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.016414141414142, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 2.7250823798933266, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 2.741926365932048, "Other_State_SOG": 0.19416195856873825, "Environment_Proxy": 0.85, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 2.7457627118644066, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/st-louis-blues/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:49.412679+00:00", "priorGP": 59, "currentTotalSOG": 16.0, "currentPPTOI": 2.6722222222222225, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.78 SOG/game in 9 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 9 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.6219999999999999, "currentIXG": 0.1802222222222222, "priorTOI": 18.253954802259887, "priorPPTOI": 2.2084745762711866, "deploymentChange": -0.3465473948524824, "ppTOIChange": 0.4637476459510359, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021033", "date": "20260312", "team": "STL", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 20.916666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2024020284", "date": "20241117", "team": "STL", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "away", "sog": 7.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 16.45 }, { "gameId": "2024020084", "date": "20241019", "team": "STL", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 14.666666666666666 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 3, "h2hSOG": 3.3333333333333335, "opponentDefense": { "team": "CAR", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 246.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 22.363636363636363, "mostAllowedRank": 31, "fiveSogAllowed60": 21.75191064079953, "pkSogAllowed60": 32.87187039764359, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 33.09090909090909, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 77.0, "R": 66.0, "D": 59.0, "L": 44.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.0, "L": 4.0, "R": 6.0, "D": 5.363636363636363 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 23.0, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 7, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 22.428571428571427, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 22.363636363636363, "oppPosSogAllowed": 4.0, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8481611", "team": "CAR", "name": "Pyotr Kochetkov", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 6, "savePct": 0.8991596638655462, "gaa": 1.9842910293509715, "gsax": 2.2720000000000002, "goalsAllowed": 12.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 14.272, "shotsAgainst": 119.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9828959307519136, "factor": 0.9828959307519136, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T22:32:34.088Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.13562898195887804, "goalHistoryGoals": 49.0, "goalHistoryShots": 356.0, "goalExpected": 0.21573475706040593, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.21204481483642565, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.1940509541807336, "goalProbability": 0.1910715552417578, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.297939893897578, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 9, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.5906243189661007, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 6.072401712728688, "Current_PP_SOG60": 4.98960498960499, "Current_5v5_Min": 14.27222222222222, "Current_PP_Share": 0.5465909090909091, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.016414141414142, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 2.741926365932048, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.1111111111111111, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9235603264096603, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.85, "Position_Factor": 0.9950657537101978, "Input_GP": 9, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1443.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2640.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 8.163728102500142, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 13.814274750575596, "Prior_5v5_Min": 14.948305084745764, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.5353983283855922, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.8900980663408036, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.062091503267974, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.8900980663408036, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.85, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 6.072401712728688, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 4.98960498960499, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 4.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 2.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021033", "date": "20260312", "team": "STL", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 20.916666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2024020284", "date": "20241117", "team": "STL", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "away", "sog": 7.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 16.45 }, { "gameId": "2024020084", "date": "20241019", "team": "STL", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 14.666666666666666 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 167, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 37, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481611", "goalieName": "Pyotr Kochetkov", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8482077", "goals": 1, "sog": 10, "shootingPct": 0.1, "gamesWithAttempts": 3, "recordedAttempts": 11, "log": [ { "gameId": "2024020284", "date": "20241117", "season": 2024, "goals": 0, "sog": 7, "attempts": 7 }, { "gameId": "2024020084", "date": "20241019", "season": 2024, "goals": 1, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2022020212", "date": "20221110", "season": 2022, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 3 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481611", "goalieName": "Pyotr Kochetkov", "opponent": "STL", "games": 3, "availableGames": 3, "shotsAgainst": 60.0, "goalsAgainst": 6.0, "savePct": 0.9, "gaa": 2.610587382160986, "gsax": -0.46099999999999985, "log": [ { "gameId": "2024020284", "date": "20241117", "goalieTeam": "CAR", "opponent": "STL", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3598.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.005 }, { "gameId": "2024020084", "date": "20241019", "goalieTeam": "CAR", "opponent": "STL", "shotsAgainst": 19.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3476.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.804 }, { "gameId": "2022020369", "date": "20221201", "goalieTeam": "CAR", "opponent": "STL", "shotsAgainst": 11.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 1200.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 0.73 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.5906243189661007, "adjustedSOG": 1.5906243189661007, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.5906243189661007, "adjustedSOG": 1.5906243189661007, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.13562898195887804, "goalHistoryGoals": 49.0, "goalHistoryShots": 356.0, "goalExpected": 0.21573475706040593, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.21573475706040593, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.1940509541807336, "goalProbability": 0.1940509541807336, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12846815773248385, "modelSOG": 1.5906243189661007, "historyGames": 145, "seasonGames": { "2024": 77, "2025": 59, "2026": 9 }, "historyGoals": 49.0, "historyShots": 356.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.13764044943820225, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.13562898195887804, "goalieFactor": 0.9828959307519136, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 56.39332850903121, "btb": { "id": "8482077", "name": "Dylan Holloway", "score": 56.39332850903121, "components": { "Goal model": 70.69767441860465, "SOG model": 59.53488372093023, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 58.604651162790695, "Goalie": 50.14705882352941, "Team H2H": 56.53745732074714, "Goalie H2H": 49.21259842519685 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 3, "goalieH2HShots": 10, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 133 } }, { "id": "8481013", "name": "Jonatan Berggren", "team": "STL", "opponent": "CAR", "position": "R", "currentGP": 9, "currentSOG": 1.3333333333333333, "priorSOG": 1.1372549019607843, "currentTOI": 14.718518518518518, "currentFiveTOI": 13.005555555555555, "ppShare": 0.175, "rate": 1.0078054629050854, "fifty": 1.043146009940374, "inputs": { "Player": "Jonatan Berggren", "Player_ID": "8481013", "Team": "STL", "Opponent": "CAR", "Position": "R", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.1179436742235784, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.0851134273317655, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 9, "Prior_GP": 51, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.126014523707817, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.639541306120302, "Current_PP_SOG60": 7.792207792207792, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 6.273598605866977, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 12.83143790849673, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 13.005555555555555, "Current_PP_Share": 0.175, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.27277226067863514, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 462.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2640.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 5, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.016414141414142, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 1.0250123200793753, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.8778724747474748, "Other_State_SOG": 0.046405228758169936, "Environment_Proxy": 0.85, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.1372549019607843, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/st-louis-blues/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:49.437226+00:00", "priorGP": 51, "currentTotalSOG": 12.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.8555555555555556, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.33 SOG/game in 9 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 9 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.514, "currentIXG": 0.16822222222222222, "priorTOI": 13.821895424836601, "priorPPTOI": 1.1251633986928105, "deploymentChange": 0.8966230936819173, "ppTOIChange": -0.26960784313725483, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020730", "date": "20260113", "team": "STL", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 13.516666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024021206", "date": "20250404", "team": "DET", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 15.2 }, { "gameId": "2024020975", "date": "20250304", "team": "DET", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 10.866666666666667 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 3, "h2hSOG": 2.3333333333333335, "opponentDefense": { "team": "CAR", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 246.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 22.363636363636363, "mostAllowedRank": 31, "fiveSogAllowed60": 21.75191064079953, "pkSogAllowed60": 32.87187039764359, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 33.09090909090909, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 77.0, "R": 66.0, "D": 59.0, "L": 44.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.0, "L": 4.0, "R": 6.0, "D": 5.363636363636363 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 23.0, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 7, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 22.428571428571427, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 22.363636363636363, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.0, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8481611", "team": "CAR", "name": "Pyotr Kochetkov", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 6, "savePct": 0.8991596638655462, "gaa": 1.9842910293509715, "gsax": 2.2720000000000002, "goalsAllowed": 12.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 14.272, "shotsAgainst": 119.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9828959307519136, "factor": 0.9828959307519136, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T22:32:34.088Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.13507058226348237, "goalHistoryGoals": 22.0, "goalHistoryShots": 158.0, "goalExpected": 0.18719679475679293, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.18399496781625294, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.1707194777326034, "goalProbability": 0.16806000970896415, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.26594680236392554, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 9, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.3859183222563436, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.126014523707817, "Current_PP_SOG60": 7.792207792207792, "Current_5v5_Min": 13.005555555555555, "Current_PP_Share": 0.175, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.016414141414142, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.8778724747474748, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.1111111111111111, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9235603264096603, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.85, "Position_Factor": 1.0468273008257014, "Input_GP": 9, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 462.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2640.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.639541306120302, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 6.273598605866977, "Prior_5v5_Min": 12.42516339869281, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.27277226067863514, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0601092896174862, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.382352941176471, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0601092896174862, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.85, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.126014523707817, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 7.792207792207792, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 4.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020730", "date": "20260113", "team": "STL", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 13.516666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024021206", "date": "20250404", "team": "DET", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 15.2 }, { "gameId": "2024020975", "date": "20250304", "team": "DET", "opponent": "CAR", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 10.866666666666667 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 80, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 7, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481611", "goalieName": "Pyotr Kochetkov", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8481013", "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 3, "recordedAttempts": 4, "log": [ { "gameId": "2024021206", "date": "20250404", "season": 2024, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2 }, { "gameId": "2023020447", "date": "20231214", "season": 2023, "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2022020460", "date": "20221213", "season": 2022, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8481611", "goalieName": "Pyotr Kochetkov", "opponent": "STL", "games": 3, "availableGames": 3, "shotsAgainst": 60.0, "goalsAgainst": 6.0, "savePct": 0.9, "gaa": 2.610587382160986, "gsax": -0.46099999999999985, "log": [ { "gameId": "2024020284", "date": "20241117", "goalieTeam": "CAR", "opponent": "STL", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3598.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.005 }, { "gameId": "2024020084", "date": "20241019", "goalieTeam": "CAR", "opponent": "STL", "shotsAgainst": 19.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3476.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.804 }, { "gameId": "2022020369", "date": "20221201", "goalieTeam": "CAR", "opponent": "STL", "shotsAgainst": 11.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 1200.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 0.73 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.3859183222563436, "adjustedSOG": 1.3859183222563436, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.3859183222563436, "adjustedSOG": 1.3859183222563436, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.13507058226348237, "goalHistoryGoals": 22.0, "goalHistoryShots": 158.0, "goalExpected": 0.18719679475679293, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.18719679475679293, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.1707194777326034, "goalProbability": 0.1707194777326034, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12848210223978448, "modelSOG": 1.3859183222563436, "historyGames": 135, "seasonGames": { "2024": 75, "2025": 51, "2026": 9 }, "historyGoals": 22.0, "historyShots": 158.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.13924050632911392, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.13507058226348237, "goalieFactor": 0.9828959307519136, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 53.47687011808699, "btb": { "id": "8481013", "name": "Jonatan Berggren", "score": 53.47687011808699, "components": { "Goal model": 63.95348837209303, "SOG model": 51.86046511627907, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 54.883720930232556, "Goalie": 50.14705882352941, "Team H2H": 50.994175537256474, "Goalie H2H": 49.40944881889764 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 3, "goalieH2HShots": 3, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 161 } }, { "id": "8481605", "name": "Jackson Lacombe", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "PHI", "position": "D", "currentGP": 9, "currentSOG": 0.6666666666666666, "priorSOG": 1.9146341463414633, "currentTOI": 26.05740740740741, "currentFiveTOI": 17.57037037037037, "ppShare": 0.7970956030657523, "rate": 2.096416480460802, "fifty": 1.6372881955980823, "inputs": { "Player": "Jackson LaCombe", "Player_ID": "8481605", "Team": "ANA", "Opponent": "PHI", "Position": "D", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.8639755966253804, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.5666989597254495, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 9, "Prior_GP": 82, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 1.5177065767284992, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.219278653722828, "Current_PP_SOG60": 1.8218623481781377, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 8.080808080808081, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 17.814015356820235, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 17.57037037037037, "Current_PP_Share": 0.7970956030657523, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.5879407517816386, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1976.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2479.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 5, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.388425925925926, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 3.9569859860433105, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 4.295090613001061, "Other_State_SOG": 0.1867208672086721, "Environment_Proxy": 1.15, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.9146341463414633, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/anaheim-ducks/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:49.461730+00:00", "priorGP": 82, "currentTotalSOG": 6.0, "currentPPTOI": 3.659259259259259, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.67 SOG/game in 9 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 9 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.346, "currentIXG": 0.14955555555555555, "priorTOI": 24.247967479674795, "priorPPTOI": 3.078658536585366, "deploymentChange": 1.8094399277326154, "ppTOIChange": 0.5806007226738932, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021082", "date": "20260318", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 25.483333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020670", "date": "20260106", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 19.25 }, { "gameId": "2024020675", "date": "20250111", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 22.95 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 2.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "PHI", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 383.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 31.916666666666668, "mostAllowedRank": 2, "fiveSogAllowed60": 31.042564889030356, "pkSogAllowed60": 46.879209699146834, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.75, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 113.0, "C": 130.0, "R": 73.0, "L": 67.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.833333333333334, "L": 5.583333333333333, "R": 6.083333333333333, "D": 9.416666666666666 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 27.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.833333333333332, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 31.916666666666668, "oppPosSogAllowed": 9.416666666666666, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8479361", "team": "PHI", "name": "Joseph Woll", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 6, "savePct": 0.9166666666666666, "gaa": 2.640143007746253, "gsax": 4.5710000000000015, "goalsAllowed": 16.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 20.571, "shotsAgainst": 192.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9655996195755495, "factor": 0.9655996195755495, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T14:50:13.988Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.07745332721989961, "goalHistoryGoals": 25.0, "goalHistoryShots": 297.0, "goalExpected": 0.05704518973448574, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.05508281350623447, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.055448615624199164, "goalProbability": 0.05359323055477268, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.18553850694264865, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 9, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 0.73651051261526, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 1.5177065767284992, "Current_PP_SOG60": 1.8218623481781377, "Current_5v5_Min": 17.57037037037037, "Current_PP_Share": 0.7970956030657523, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.388425925925926, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 4.295090613001061, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.1111111111111111, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.1165260841882552, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9915761915723407, "Position_Factor": 1.0127905449409682, "Input_GP": 9, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1976.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2479.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.219278653722828, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 8.080808080808081, "Prior_5v5_Min": 18.382520325203252, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.5879407517816386, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.15, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.34640522875817, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9915761915723407, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 1.5177065767284992, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 1.8218623481781377, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021082", "date": "20260318", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 25.483333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020670", "date": "20260106", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 19.25 }, { "gameId": "2024020675", "date": "20250111", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 22.95 }, { "gameId": "2024020568", "date": "20241228", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 20.6 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "ppAssignmentSourceDate": "2026-10-13T16:34:52.608Z", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 156, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 48, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479361", "goalieName": "Joseph Woll", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8481605", "goals": 1, "sog": 4, "shootingPct": 0.25, "gamesWithAttempts": 2, "recordedAttempts": 8, "log": [ { "gameId": "2024021176", "date": "20250330", "season": 2024, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 5 }, { "gameId": "2024020459", "date": "20241212", "season": 2024, "goals": 1, "sog": 3, "attempts": 3 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479361", "goalieName": "Joseph Woll", "opponent": "ANA", "games": 3, "availableGames": 3, "shotsAgainst": 91.0, "goalsAgainst": 7.0, "savePct": 0.9230769230769231, "gaa": 2.6359832635983262, "gsax": 2.575, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021029", "date": "20260312", "goalieTeam": "TOR", "opponent": "ANA", "shotsAgainst": 40.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3567.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.449 }, { "gameId": "2024021176", "date": "20250330", "goalieTeam": "TOR", "opponent": "ANA", "shotsAgainst": 31.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3593.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.338 }, { "gameId": "2024020459", "date": "20241212", "goalieTeam": "TOR", "opponent": "ANA", "shotsAgainst": 20.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 2400.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.788 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.73651051261526, "adjustedSOG": 0.73651051261526, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.7515413394033266, "adjustedSOG": 0.73651051261526, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.07745332721989961, "goalHistoryGoals": 25.0, "goalHistoryShots": 297.0, "goalExpected": 0.05820937728008749, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.05620695255738211, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.05654761073973195, "goalProbability": 0.05465652560485937, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.1891085134872579 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.057489709063001465, "modelSOG": 0.73651051261526, "historyGames": 166, "seasonGames": { "2024": 75, "2025": 82, "2026": 9 }, "historyGoals": 25.0, "historyShots": 297.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.08417508417508418, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.07745332721989961, "goalieFactor": 0.9655996195755495, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 40.80828689964829, "btb": { "id": "8481605", "name": "Jackson Lacombe", "score": 40.80828689964829, "components": { "Goal model": 18.13953488372093, "SOG model": 14.418604651162791, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 47.906976744186046, "Goalie": 28.970588235294116, "Team H2H": 56.378217083177915, "Goalie H2H": 53.1496062992126 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": 4, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 339 } }, { "id": "8482929", "name": "Emil Lilleberg", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "UTA", "position": "D", "currentGP": 4, "currentSOG": 0.5, "priorSOG": 0.86, "currentTOI": 12.954166666666667, "currentFiveTOI": 12.1375, "ppShare": 0.0, "rate": 0.6460884997995724, "fifty": 0.48484729255994047, "inputs": { "Player": "Emil Lilleberg", "Player_ID": "8482929", "Team": "TBL", "Opponent": "UTA", "Position": "D", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 0.618230006405477, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 0.393169520178031, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 4, "Prior_GP": 50, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 1.235839340885685, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.3864193209660485, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 13.067449999999997, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 12.1375, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.0070406034344407, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 957.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 1, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.626018518518518, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.009770988560780326, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.0, "Other_State_SOG": 0.025, "Environment_Proxy": 0.85, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 0.86, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:49.487506+00:00", "priorGP": 50.0, "currentTotalSOG": 2.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.0, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.50 SOG/game in 4 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 4 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.095, "currentIXG": 0.02375, "priorTOI": 17.308, "priorPPTOI": 0.035666666666666666, "deploymentChange": -4.353833333333332, "ppTOIChange": -0.035666666666666666, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020194", "date": "20251102", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 19.383333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024021145", "date": "20250327", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 18.033333333333335 } ], "h2hGames": 2, "h2hAvailableGames": 2, "h2hSOG": 0.5, "opponentDefense": { "team": "UTA", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 225.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 22.5, "mostAllowedRank": 30, "fiveSogAllowed60": 21.06050814598143, "pkSogAllowed60": 53.47313237221494, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 35.6, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 58.0, "C": 87.0, "R": 52.0, "L": 28.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 8.7, "L": 2.8, "R": 5.2, "D": 5.8 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 22.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 20.25, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 22.5, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.8, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8478872", "team": "UTA", "name": "Karel Vejmelka", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 8, "savePct": 0.8793103448275862, "gaa": 2.8927833473635878, "gsax": -2.0919999999999987, "goalsAllowed": 21.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 18.908, "shotsAgainst": 174.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0222659253207917, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Likely starter per Daily Faceoff; no Model Goal adjustment until confirmed.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T17:11:59.953Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.05637618294857525, "goalHistoryGoals": 5.0, "goalHistoryShots": 91.0, "goalExpected": 0.025552504921441732, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.025552504921441732, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.025228802663030694, "goalProbability": 0.025228802663030694, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 4, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 0.45325, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 1.235839340885685, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 12.1375, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.626018518518518, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.0, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.25, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9114659361351877, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.05376529706562, "Position_Factor": 0.9944572953736655, "Input_GP": 4, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 957.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.3864193209660485, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 15.237333333333334, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.0070406034344407, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.8947508896797154, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.34640522875817, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.861311051932105, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.05376529706562, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 1.7535314174378958, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 1.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 0.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020194", "date": "20251102", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 19.383333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024021145", "date": "20250327", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "UTA", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 18.033333333333335 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "NHL.com projected lineup", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 70, "fitPct": -4.6229649355964995, "index": 95.3770350644035, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 68.57142857142857, "opponentDeltaPct": -5.689070301576365, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 50 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 2.2857142857142856, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.7770704564453013, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 4.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.327351233427365, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 24.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.9245535697431251, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 1.1428571428571428, "opponentDeltaPct": -16.04971857561877, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -20.1847447341527, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -4.6229649355964995, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478872", "goalieName": "Karel Vejmelka", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8482929", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478872", "goalieName": "Karel Vejmelka", "opponent": "TBL", "games": 5, "availableGames": 6, "shotsAgainst": 128.0, "goalsAgainst": 18.0, "savePct": 0.859375, "gaa": 4.0538004379105415, "gsax": -5.162, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020825", "date": "20260126", "goalieTeam": "UTA", "opponent": "TBL", "shotsAgainst": 29.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.389 }, { "gameId": "2025020194", "date": "20251102", "goalieTeam": "UTA", "opponent": "TBL", "shotsAgainst": 25.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3527.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.366 }, { "gameId": "2024021145", "date": "20250327", "goalieTeam": "UTA", "opponent": "TBL", "shotsAgainst": 12.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 1754.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.834 }, { "gameId": "2024021111", "date": "20250322", "goalieTeam": "UTA", "opponent": "TBL", "shotsAgainst": 27.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.77 }, { "gameId": "2022020582", "date": "20221231", "goalieTeam": "ARI", "opponent": "TBL", "shotsAgainst": 35.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3504.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.479 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.45325, "adjustedSOG": 0.45325, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.4625, "adjustedSOG": 0.45325, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.05637618294857525, "goalHistoryGoals": 5.0, "goalHistoryShots": 91.0, "goalExpected": 0.026073984613716055, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.026073984613716055, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.025736993529930908, "goalProbability": 0.025736993529930908, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05767850943177873, "modelSOG": 0.45325, "historyGames": 130, "seasonGames": { "2024": 76, "2025": 50, "2026": 4 }, "historyGoals": 5.0, "historyShots": 91.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.054945054945054944, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.05637618294857525, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 36.159952031088714, "btb": { "id": "8482929", "name": "Emil Lilleberg", "score": 36.159952031088714, "components": { "Goal model": 5.348837209302325, "SOG model": 5.5813953488372094, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 25.232558139534884, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 48.58572671888599, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Likely", "h2hGames": 2, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 397 } }, { "id": "8483521", "name": "Noah Warren", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "PHI", "position": "D", "currentGP": 9, "currentSOG": 0.7777777777777778, "priorSOG": null, "currentTOI": 16.951851851851853, "currentFiveTOI": 13.718518518518518, "ppShare": 0.0024203307785397336, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/anaheim-ducks/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:49.490930+00:00", "priorGP": null, "currentTotalSOG": 7.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.011111111111111112, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.78 SOG/game in 9 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 9 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.156, "currentIXG": 0.017333333333333333, "priorTOI": null, "priorPPTOI": null, "deploymentChange": null, "ppTOIChange": null, "h2hLog": [], "h2hGames": 0, "h2hAvailableGames": 0, "h2hSOG": null, "opponentDefense": { "team": "PHI", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 383.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 31.916666666666668, "mostAllowedRank": 2, "fiveSogAllowed60": 31.042564889030356, "pkSogAllowed60": 46.879209699146834, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.75, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 113.0, "C": 130.0, "R": 73.0, "L": 67.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.833333333333334, "L": 5.583333333333333, "R": 6.083333333333333, "D": 9.416666666666666 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 27.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.833333333333332, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 31.916666666666668, "oppPosSogAllowed": 9.416666666666666, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8479361", "team": "PHI", "name": "Joseph Woll", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 6, "savePct": 0.9166666666666666, "gaa": 2.640143007746253, "gsax": 4.5710000000000015, "goalsAllowed": 16.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 20.571, "shotsAgainst": 192.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9655996195755495, "factor": 0.9655996195755495, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T14:50:13.988Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.05390849545642274, "goalHistoryGoals": 0.0, "goalHistoryShots": 7.0, "goalExpected": 0.04637328575818054, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.044778027086567376, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.04531447484166312, "goalProbability": 0.043790289066938944, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.1524185774724178, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 9, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 0.8602222222222222, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.915766738660907, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 13.718518518518518, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0024203307785397336, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.388425925925926, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.013041773116399981, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.1111111111111111, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.1165260841882552, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9915761915723407, "Position_Factor": 1.0127905449409682, "Input_GP": 9, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 6.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2479.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": null, "Prior_PP_SOG60": null, "Prior_5v5_Min": null, "Prior_PP_Share": null, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.15, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.34640522875817, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9915761915723407, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 2.915766738660907, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 1, "playerPriorWeight": 0, "currentSeasonOnly": true }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 1, "playerPriorWeight": 0, "currentSeasonOnly": true }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479361", "goalieName": "Joseph Woll", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8483521", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479361", "goalieName": "Joseph Woll", "opponent": "ANA", "games": 3, "availableGames": 3, "shotsAgainst": 91.0, "goalsAgainst": 7.0, "savePct": 0.9230769230769231, "gaa": 2.6359832635983262, "gsax": 2.575, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021029", "date": "20260312", "goalieTeam": "TOR", "opponent": "ANA", "shotsAgainst": 40.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3567.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.449 }, { "gameId": "2024021176", "date": "20250330", "goalieTeam": "TOR", "opponent": "ANA", "shotsAgainst": 31.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3593.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.338 }, { "gameId": "2024020459", "date": "20241212", "goalieTeam": "TOR", "opponent": "ANA", "shotsAgainst": 20.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 2400.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.788 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.8602222222222222, "adjustedSOG": 0.8602222222222222, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.8777777777777778, "adjustedSOG": 0.8602222222222222, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.05390849545642274, "goalHistoryGoals": 0.0, "goalHistoryShots": 7.0, "goalExpected": 0.04731967934508218, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.04569186437404834, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.046217555697810934, "goalProbability": 0.04466371001234446, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.15538456854664734 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05768209013837233, "modelSOG": 0.8602222222222222, "historyGames": 9, "seasonGames": { "2026": 9 }, "historyGoals": 0.0, "historyShots": 7.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.0, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.05390849545642274, "goalieFactor": 0.9655996195755495, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": 34.36217510259918, "btb": { "id": "8483521", "name": "Noah Warren", "score": 34.36217510259918, "components": { "Goal model": 13.953488372093023, "SOG model": 19.302325581395348, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 2.0930232558139537, "Goalie": 28.970588235294116, "Team H2H": 50.0, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Team H2H unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 0, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 414 } }, { "id": "8476432", "name": "Boone Jenner", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "position": "C", "currentGP": 9, "currentSOG": 2.6666666666666665, "priorSOG": 1.9701492537313432, "currentTOI": 15.985185185185186, "currentFiveTOI": 12.614814814814814, "ppShare": 0.00874056416368693, "rate": 1.8417761362302758, "fifty": 2.024536986651392, "inputs": { "Player": "Boone Jenner", "Player_ID": "8476432", "Team": "WSH", "Opponent": "BUF", "Position": "C", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.7023765003489475, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.9993581534051206, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 9, "Prior_GP": 67, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 11.098062243100411, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 7.654574279585937, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 9.278350515463918, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 12.831489773355443, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 12.614814814814814, "Current_PP_Share": 0.00874056416368693, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.17826124410559477, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 22.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2517.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 5, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.500555555555556, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.26821856597380356, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.03933739460557101, "Other_State_SOG": 0.16766169154228855, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9496227273390297, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.9701492537313432, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:49.515704+00:00", "priorGP": 67, "currentTotalSOG": 24.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.04074074074074074, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.67 SOG/game in 9 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 9 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 2.46, "currentIXG": 0.2733333333333333, "priorTOI": 16.079353233830844, "priorPPTOI": 0.7721393034825871, "deploymentChange": -0.09416804864565798, "ppTOIChange": -0.7313985627418463, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021247", "date": "20260409", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 12.833333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020646", "date": "20260103", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 17.733333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020152", "date": "20251028", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 16.933333333333334 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 3.3333333333333335, "opponentDefense": { "team": "BUF", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 257.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 25.7, "mostAllowedRank": 24, "fiveSogAllowed60": 21.645723550871505, "pkSogAllowed60": 62.21198156682028, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 40.1, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 61.0, "L": 55.0, "D": 65.0, "C": 76.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.6, "L": 5.5, "R": 6.1, "D": 6.5 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 30.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.25, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 25.7, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.6, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8480045", "team": "BUF", "name": "Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 8, "savePct": 0.8629441624365483, "gaa": 3.5349310833909153, "gsax": -3.6580000000000013, "goalsAllowed": 27.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 23.342, "shotsAgainst": 197.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.035448902624297, "factor": 1.035448902624297, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T15:43:35.500Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.11304976382714411, "goalHistoryGoals": 24.0, "goalHistoryShots": 226.0, "goalExpected": 0.27578192386253314, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.28555809042707736, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.24102157220093678, "goalProbability": 0.24840532054573067, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.7383748344793883, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 9, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 2.4394736842105265, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 11.098062243100411, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 12.614814814814814, "Current_PP_Share": 0.00874056416368693, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.500555555555556, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.03933739460557101, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.3333333333333333, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.922717716387106, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.1429256259066152, "Position_Factor": 0.981671103829613, "Input_GP": 9, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 22.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2517.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 7.654574279585937, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 9.278350515463918, "Prior_5v5_Min": 13.337064676616915, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.17826124410559477, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9026315789473685, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.437908496732026, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9026315789473685, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.1429256259066152, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 11.966096061160046, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 6.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 3.3333333333333335 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021247", "date": "20260409", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 12.833333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020646", "date": "20260103", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 17.733333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020152", "date": "20251028", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 16.933333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024021253", "date": "20250410", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "home", "sog": 6.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 9.0, "toi": 18.433333333333334 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "NHL.com October 20 game-specific projected lineup", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 186, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 14, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480045", "goalieName": "Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8476432", "goals": 0, "sog": 8, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 3, "recordedAttempts": 9, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020646", "date": "20260103", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 3 }, { "gameId": "2023020900", "date": "20240223", "season": 2023, "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 4 }, { "gameId": "2022020412", "date": "20221207", "season": 2022, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480045", "goalieName": "Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen", "opponent": "WSH", "games": 5, "availableGames": 10, "shotsAgainst": 138.0, "goalsAgainst": 13.0, "savePct": 0.9057971014492754, "gaa": 2.5547246028713357, "gsax": 1.2270000000000003, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021028", "date": "20260312", "goalieTeam": "BUF", "opponent": "WSH", "shotsAgainst": 22.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3513.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.736 }, { "gameId": "2025020186", "date": "20251101", "goalieTeam": "BUF", "opponent": "WSH", "shotsAgainst": 34.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3868.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.692 }, { "gameId": "2024020637", "date": "20250106", "goalieTeam": "BUF", "opponent": "WSH", "shotsAgainst": 28.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3900.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.29 }, { "gameId": "2024020480", "date": "20241214", "goalieTeam": "BUF", "opponent": "WSH", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3438.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.234 }, { "gameId": "2023021255", "date": "20240411", "goalieTeam": "BUF", "opponent": "WSH", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.275 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 2.4394736842105265, "adjustedSOG": 2.4394736842105265, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 2.4394736842105265, "adjustedSOG": 2.4394736842105265, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.11304976382714411, "goalHistoryGoals": 24.0, "goalHistoryShots": 226.0, "goalExpected": 0.27578192386253314, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.28555809042707736, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.24102157220093678, "goalProbability": 0.24840532054573067, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.7383748344793883 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12854223007648985, "modelSOG": 2.4394736842105265, "historyGames": 102, "seasonGames": { "2024": 26, "2025": 67, "2026": 9 }, "historyGoals": 24.0, "historyShots": 226.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.10619469026548672, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.11304976382714411, "goalieFactor": 1.035448902624297, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 56.98656570284462, "btb": { "id": "8476432", "name": "Boone Jenner", "score": 56.98656570284462, "components": { "Goal model": 81.62790697674419, "SOG model": 85.34883720930233, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 78.6046511627907, "Goalie": 7.794117647058823, "Team H2H": 55.1846325997762, "Goalie H2H": 44.75970676079283 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": 8, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 124 } }, { "id": "8485395", "name": "James Hagens", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "position": "R", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 1.7, "priorSOG": 1, "currentTOI": 12.78, "currentFiveTOI": 11.146666666666667, "ppShare": 0.31986275257338925, "rate": 1.250769295983965, "fifty": 1.4883838125372424, "inputs": { "Player": "James Hagens", "Player_ID": "8485395", "Team": "BOS", "Opponent": "SJS", "Position": "C", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.2305223997544361, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 1.5254968317733575, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 10, "Prior_GP": 2, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 8.074162679425838, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.123711340206185, "Current_PP_SOG60": 8.581644815256258, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 16.071428571428573, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 12.167666666666666, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 11.146666666666667, "Current_PP_Share": 0.31986275257338925, "Prior_PP_Share": 0, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 839.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2623.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 6, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.950833333333334, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 1.1085110242724616, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 1.583587177532088, "Other_State_SOG": 0.0, "Environment_Proxy": 1.0796680236682055, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/boston-bruins/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:49.540640+00:00", "priorGP": 2, "currentTotalSOG": 17.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.3983333333333332, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.70 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 2.528, "currentIXG": 0.2528, "priorTOI": 14.55, "priorPPTOI": 0, "deploymentChange": -1.7700000000000014, "ppTOIChange": 1.3983333333333332, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2026020105", "date": "20261013", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 11.4 } ], "h2hGames": 1, "h2hAvailableGames": 1, "h2hSOG": 0.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "SJS", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 286.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 28.6, "mostAllowedRank": 10, "fiveSogAllowed60": 25.210423540502322, "pkSogAllowed60": 49.90958408679928, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 47.8, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 86.0, "C": 94.0, "R": 53.0, "L": 53.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.4, "L": 5.3, "R": 5.3, "D": 8.6 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 30.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 29.833333333333332, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 28.6, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.3, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8477968", "team": "SJS", "name": "Alex Nedeljkovic", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 4, "savePct": 0.9173553719008265, "gaa": 2.372479240806643, "gsax": 4.638, "goalsAllowed": 10.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 14.638, "shotsAgainst": 121.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9618500831522029, "factor": 0.9618500831522029, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T16:06:01.887Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.13318677909478951, "goalHistoryGoals": 3.0, "goalHistoryShots": 19.0, "goalExpected": 0.22920231871216099, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.22045826931196974, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.2048323600631111, "goalProbability": 0.19784888751898544, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.6983472544125652, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.7209089390849888, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 8.074162679425838, "Current_PP_SOG60": 8.581644815256258, "Current_5v5_Min": 11.146666666666667, "Current_PP_Share": 0.31986275257338925, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.950833333333334, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.583587177532088, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9930883597207428, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0259958714356598, "Position_Factor": 0.9922140700829225, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 839.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2623.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.123711340206185, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 14.55, "Prior_PP_Share": 0, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9923497267759562, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.382352941176471, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9923497267759562, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0259958714356598, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 8.074162679425838, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 8.581644815256258, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2026", "label": "2026–27", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 0.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2026020105", "date": "20261013", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 11.4 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "ppAssignmentSourceDate": "2026-10-12T22:24:39.463Z", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. 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Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477968", "goalieName": "Alex Nedeljkovic", "opponent": "BOS", "games": 5, "availableGames": 8, "shotsAgainst": 134.0, "goalsAgainst": 17.0, "savePct": 0.8731343283582089, "gaa": 3.7850207186591627, "gsax": -3.2609999999999997, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021027", "date": "20260312", "goalieTeam": "SJS", "opponent": "BOS", "shotsAgainst": 41.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.661 }, { "gameId": "2024020952", "date": "20250301", "goalieTeam": "PIT", "opponent": "BOS", "shotsAgainst": 25.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3474.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.566 }, { "gameId": "2023021279", "date": "20240413", "goalieTeam": "PIT", "opponent": "BOS", "shotsAgainst": 16.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 1895.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.22 }, { "gameId": "2023021012", "date": "20240309", "goalieTeam": "PIT", "opponent": "BOS", "shotsAgainst": 23.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.955 }, { "gameId": "2023020589", "date": "20240104", "goalieTeam": "PIT", "opponent": "BOS", "shotsAgainst": 29.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.337 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.7209089390849888, "adjustedSOG": 1.7209089390849888, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.7209089390849888, "adjustedSOG": 1.7209089390849888, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.13318677909478951, "goalHistoryGoals": 3.0, "goalHistoryShots": 19.0, "goalExpected": 0.22920231871216099, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.22920231871216099, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.2048323600631111, "goalProbability": 0.2048323600631111, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12849226712279951, "modelSOG": 1.7209089390849888, "historyGames": 12, "seasonGames": { "2025": 2, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 3.0, "historyShots": 19.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.15789473684210525, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.13318677909478951, "goalieFactor": 0.9618500831522029, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": 62.69609983495162, "btb": { "id": "8485395", "name": "James Hagens", "score": 62.69609983495162, "components": { "Goal model": 73.48837209302326, "SOG model": 66.04651162790698, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 75.81395348837209, "Goalie": 97.5, "Team H2H": 49.098029907429385, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 1, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 58 } }, { "id": "8476624", "name": "Barclay Goodrow", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "BOS", "position": "L", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 1.1, "priorSOG": 0.8048780487804879, "currentTOI": 11.575, "currentFiveTOI": 8.608333333333333, "ppShare": 0.004918536735321242, "rate": 0.8257219235689628, "fifty": 0.9825580224160864, "inputs": { "Player": "Barclay Goodrow", "Player_ID": "8476624", "Team": "SJS", "Opponent": "BOS", "Position": "C", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 0.778359989836359, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 0.7605540999760683, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 10, "Prior_GP": 82, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 7.666989351403679, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.28193832599119, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 8.794126016260162, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 8.608333333333333, "Current_PP_Share": 0.004918536735321242, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.00938351898140284, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 16.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3253.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 5, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.0425, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.0315561233806173, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.024801721487857364, "Other_State_SOG": 0.13170731707317077, "Environment_Proxy": 1.0253180054689388, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 0.8048780487804879, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:49.561608+00:00", "priorGP": 82, "currentTotalSOG": 11.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.026666666666666665, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.10 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.909, "currentIXG": 0.09090000000000001, "priorTOI": 11.347560975609756, "priorPPTOI": 0.04715447154471545, "deploymentChange": 0.2274390243902431, "ppTOIChange": -0.020487804878048785, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2026020105", "date": "20261013", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 11.716666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025021027", "date": "20260312", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 11.516666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020351", "date": "20251123", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 17.516666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024021117", "date": "20250322", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 10.283333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020740", "date": "20250120", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 13.95 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 5, "h2hSOG": 2.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "BOS", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 280.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 28.0, "mostAllowedRank": 11, "fiveSogAllowed60": 26.539776154413243, "pkSogAllowed60": 48.89206576125804, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 42.4, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 68.0, "R": 50.0, "L": 68.0, "C": 94.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.4, "L": 6.8, "R": 5.0, "D": 6.8 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 26.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 25.0, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 28.0, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.8, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8480280", "team": "BOS", "name": "Jeremy Swayman", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 8, "savePct": 0.9279279279279279, "gaa": 1.976189659313137, "gsax": 7.695, "goalsAllowed": 16.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 23.695, "shotsAgainst": 222.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9412127550171275, "factor": 0.9412127550171275, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T14:59:19.712Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.09143198622867184, "goalHistoryGoals": 10.0, "goalHistoryShots": 150.0, "goalExpected": 0.11334823332768446, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.10668480296667408, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.10716031056216069, "goalProbability": 0.10119106974462105, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.5969240817539634, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 1.2396999999999998, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 7.666989351403679, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 8.608333333333333, "Current_PP_Share": 0.004918536735321242, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.0425, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.024801721487857364, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0194233133624404, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.013580746919003, "Position_Factor": 1.0383288757723876, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 16.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3253.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.28193832599119, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 9.227642276422763, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.00938351898140284, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.15, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.062091503267974, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.013580746919003, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 7.666989351403679, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.0 }, { "season": "2026", "label": "2026–27", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 3.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2026020105", "date": "20261013", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 11.716666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025021027", "date": "20260312", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 11.516666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020351", "date": "20251123", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 17.516666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024021117", "date": "20250322", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 10.283333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020740", "date": "20250120", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "BOS", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 13.95 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Reviewed October22 projected lineup and coach reports", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 80, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480280", "goalieName": "Jeremy Swayman", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8476624", "goals": 0, "sog": 13, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 8, "recordedAttempts": 19, "log": [ { "gameId": "2026020105", "date": "20261013", "season": 2026, "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 4 }, { "gameId": "2025021027", "date": "20260312", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2 }, { "gameId": "2025020351", "date": "20251123", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 3 }, { "gameId": "2023021098", "date": "20240321", "season": 2023, "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2023020462", "date": "20231216", "season": 2023, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2 }, { "gameId": "2022020718", "date": "20230119", "season": 2022, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 3 }, { "gameId": "2021021263", "date": "20220215", "season": 2021, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 3 }, { "gameId": "2021020304", "date": "20211126", "season": 2021, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480280", "goalieName": "Jeremy Swayman", "opponent": "SJS", "games": 5, "availableGames": 6, "shotsAgainst": 123.0, "goalsAgainst": 9.0, "savePct": 0.926829268292683, "gaa": 2.2632020117351215, "gsax": 2.58, "log": [ { "gameId": "2026020105", "date": "20261013", "goalieTeam": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "shotsAgainst": 38.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.146 }, { "gameId": "2025021027", "date": "20260312", "goalieTeam": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "shotsAgainst": 28.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3406.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.91 }, { "gameId": "2025020351", "date": "20251123", "goalieTeam": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3588.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.577 }, { "gameId": "2023020340", "date": "20231130", "goalieTeam": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "shotsAgainst": 26.0, "goalsAgainst": 0.0, "seconds": 3574.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.886 }, { "gameId": "2022020748", "date": "20230122", "goalieTeam": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "shotsAgainst": 1.0, "goalsAgainst": 0.0, "seconds": 148.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 0.061 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.2396999999999998, "adjustedSOG": 1.2396999999999998, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.265, "adjustedSOG": 1.2396999999999998, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.09143198622867184, "goalHistoryGoals": 10.0, "goalHistoryShots": 150.0, "goalExpected": 0.11566146257926986, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.10886204384354499, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.10922326648384191, "goalProbability": 0.10314586448635546, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.6077401997486451 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12857996557167958, "modelSOG": 1.2396999999999998, "historyGames": 169, "seasonGames": { "2024": 77, "2025": 82, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 10.0, "historyShots": 150.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.06666666666666667, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.09143198622867184, "goalieFactor": 0.9412127550171275, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 44.602961502006174, "btb": { "id": "8476624", "name": "Barclay Goodrow", "score": 44.602961502006174, "components": { "Goal model": 40.23255813953488, "SOG model": 43.72093023255814, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 21.627906976744185, "Goalie": 34.26470588235294, "Team H2H": 65.0130548302872, "Goalie H2H": 40.291838520184974 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 5, "goalieH2HShots": 13, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 280 } }, { "id": "8479520", "name": "Brandon Duhaime", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "EDM", "position": "L", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 0.5454545454545454, "priorSOG": 0.7804878048780488, "currentTOI": 11.383333333333333, "currentFiveTOI": 8.831818181818182, "ppShare": 0.007523322299127295, "rate": 0.6980562716126227, "fifty": 0.6066733944885885, "inputs": { "Player": "Brandon Duhaime", "Player_ID": "8479520", "Team": "TOR", "Opponent": "EDM", "Position": "L", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 0.6109835001742746, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 0.5943497469733108, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 11, "Prior_GP": 82, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.0880082346886257, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.40043092732245, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 39.27272727272727, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 9.125443458980044, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 8.831818181818182, "Current_PP_Share": 0.007523322299127295, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.012773231023623507, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 25.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3323.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 6, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.3053872053872055, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.039171682524235904, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.03239081556866691, "Other_State_SOG": 0.031042128603104215, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9716922687020597, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 0.7804878048780488, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/toronto-maple-leafs/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:49.584317+00:00", "priorGP": 82, "currentTotalSOG": 6.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.03787878787878788, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.55 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.692, "currentIXG": 0.0629090909090909, "priorTOI": 11.06869918699187, "priorPPTOI": 0.05589430894308943, "deploymentChange": 0.31463414634146325, "ppTOIChange": -0.01801552106430155, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020818", "date": "20260124", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 7.366666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020315", "date": "20251119", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 11.933333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020906", "date": "20250223", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 14.683333333333334 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 1.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "EDM", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 239.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 26.555555555555557, "mostAllowedRank": 18, "fiveSogAllowed60": 25.09786377362711, "pkSogAllowed60": 57.79388917659244, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 40.111111111111114, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 74.0, "C": 64.0, "L": 57.0, "R": 44.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.111111111111111, "L": 6.333333333333333, "R": 4.888888888888889, "D": 8.222222222222221 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 28.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 24.5, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 26.555555555555557, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.333333333333333, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8477465", "team": "EDM", "name": "Tristan Jarry", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 3, "savePct": 0.8732394366197183, "gaa": 2.974387221151198, "gsax": -2.739, "goalsAllowed": 9.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 6.261, "shotsAgainst": 71.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0280169850571896, "factor": 1.0280169850571896, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-23T18:50:20.460Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.1021963034378968, "goalHistoryGoals": 13.0, "goalHistoryShots": 153.0, "goalExpected": 0.06004390879114333, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.06172615808652005, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.05827681725012342, "goalProbability": 0.059859698636904275, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.15828813867808586, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 0.5875350357230008, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.0880082346886257, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 8.831818181818182, "Current_PP_Share": 0.007523322299127295, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.3053872053872055, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.03239081556866691, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.09090909090909091, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9913228889134689, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0841268017286898, "Position_Factor": 1.0335314825443072, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 25.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3323.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.40043092732245, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 39.27272727272727, "Prior_5v5_Min": 9.810569105691057, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.012773231023623507, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.1189562026434712, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.062091503267974, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.1189562026434712, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0841268017286898, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 3.0880082346886257, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020818", "date": "20260124", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 7.366666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020315", "date": "20251119", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 11.933333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020906", "date": "20250223", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 14.683333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020754", "date": "20250121", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 16.45 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 95, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 6, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477465", "goalieName": "Tristan Jarry", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8479520", "goals": 1, "sog": 7, "shootingPct": 0.14285714285714285, "gamesWithAttempts": 4, "recordedAttempts": 10, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020818", "date": "20260124", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2022021244", "date": "20230406", "season": 2022, "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 6 }, { "gameId": "2022020268", "date": "20221117", "season": 2022, "goals": 1, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2 }, { "gameId": "2021020167", "date": "20211106", "season": 2021, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477465", "goalieName": "Tristan Jarry", "opponent": "TOR", "games": 5, "availableGames": 13, "shotsAgainst": 102.0, "goalsAgainst": 16.0, "savePct": 0.8431372549019608, "gaa": 4.100811618966254, "gsax": -2.944, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020499", "date": "20251213", "goalieTeam": "EDM", "opponent": "TOR", "shotsAgainst": 28.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.854 }, { "gameId": "2025020396", "date": "20251129", "goalieTeam": "PIT", "opponent": "TOR", "shotsAgainst": 13.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 2107.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.626 }, { "gameId": "2025020199", "date": "20251103", "goalieTeam": "PIT", "opponent": "TOR", "shotsAgainst": 20.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3452.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.296 }, { "gameId": "2024020433", "date": "20241207", "goalieTeam": "PIT", "opponent": "TOR", "shotsAgainst": 27.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3571.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.846 }, { "gameId": "2023020466", "date": "20231216", "goalieTeam": "PIT", "opponent": "TOR", "shotsAgainst": 14.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 1316.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.434 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.5875350357230008, "adjustedSOG": 0.5875350357230008, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.5995255466561232, "adjustedSOG": 0.5875350357230008, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. 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Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482661", "goalieName": "Jesper Wallstedt", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8479985", "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 1, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020693", "date": "20260108", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 1 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482661", "goalieName": "Jesper Wallstedt", "opponent": "SEA", "games": 2, "availableGames": 2, "shotsAgainst": 55.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "savePct": 0.9272727272727272, "gaa": 1.9647973802701597, "gsax": 2.874, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021240", "date": "20260407", "goalieTeam": "MIN", "opponent": "SEA", "shotsAgainst": 27.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.053 }, { "gameId": "2025020693", "date": "20260108", "goalieTeam": "MIN", "opponent": "SEA", "shotsAgainst": 28.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3729.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.821 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.3654211150652433, "adjustedSOG": 1.3654211150652433, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.3654211150652433, "adjustedSOG": 1.3654211150652433, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.04768003219762464, "goalHistoryGoals": 1.0, "goalHistoryShots": 42.0, "goalExpected": 0.06510332272962735, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.06510332272962735, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.0630293519890576, "goalProbability": 0.0630293519890576, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.057705645720626995, "modelSOG": 1.3654211150652433, "historyGames": 40, "seasonGames": { "2024": 14, "2025": 23, "2026": 3 }, "historyGoals": 1.0, "historyShots": 42.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.023809523809523808, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.04768003219762464, "goalieFactor": 0.9495343259526882, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8476931", "name": "Jake McCabe", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "EDM", "position": "D", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 0.7272727272727273, "priorSOG": 0.9625, "currentTOI": 18.722727272727273, "currentFiveTOI": 14.57121212121212, "ppShare": 0.016551309058080048, "rate": 0.8122361720854139, "fifty": 0.742579335640268, "inputs": { "Player": "Jake McCabe", "Player_ID": "8476931", "Team": "TOR", "Opponent": "EDM", "Position": "D", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 0.7531460510086763, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 0.7458869222338479, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 11, "Prior_GP": 80, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.6203597795570346, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 2.7545853493867445, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 10.557184750733137, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 15.754223484848485, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 14.57121212121212, "Current_PP_Share": 0.016551309058080048, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.07637052898376559, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 55.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3323.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 6, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.3053872053872055, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.14852326548235417, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.0712597942510672, "Other_State_SOG": 0.06534090909090909, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9716922687020597, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 0.9625, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/toronto-maple-leafs/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:49.623793+00:00", "priorGP": 80, "currentTotalSOG": 8.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.08333333333333333, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.73 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.40399999999999997, "currentIXG": 0.036727272727272726, "priorTOI": 22.404791666666668, "priorPPTOI": 0.2841666666666667, "deploymentChange": -3.6820643939393953, "ppTOIChange": -0.20083333333333336, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020891", "date": "20260203", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 25.266666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020499", "date": "20251213", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 21.616666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020833", "date": "20250201", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 30.366666666666667 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 1.6666666666666667, "opponentDefense": { "team": "EDM", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 239.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 26.555555555555557, "mostAllowedRank": 18, "fiveSogAllowed60": 25.09786377362711, "pkSogAllowed60": 57.79388917659244, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 40.111111111111114, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 74.0, "C": 64.0, "L": 57.0, "R": 44.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.111111111111111, "L": 6.333333333333333, "R": 4.888888888888889, "D": 8.222222222222221 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 28.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 24.5, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 26.555555555555557, "oppPosSogAllowed": 8.222222222222221, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8477465", "team": "EDM", "name": "Tristan Jarry", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 3, "savePct": 0.8732394366197183, "gaa": 2.974387221151198, "gsax": -2.739, "goalsAllowed": 9.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 6.261, "shotsAgainst": 71.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0280169850571896, "factor": 1.0280169850571896, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-23T18:50:20.460Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.049313926009106474, "goalHistoryGoals": 7.0, "goalHistoryShots": 159.0, "goalExpected": 0.03688409439241792, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.03791747551385826, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.03621216270965093, "goalProbability": 0.0372076084397837, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.09954457301327713, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 0.7479447972892439, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.6203597795570346, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 14.57121212121212, "Current_PP_Share": 0.016551309058080048, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.3053872053872055, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.0712597942510672, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.09090909090909091, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9913228889134689, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0841268017286898, "Position_Factor": 1.0175103897192914, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 55.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3323.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 2.7545853493867445, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 10.557184750733137, "Prior_5v5_Min": 18.514583333333334, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.07637052898376559, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0564712492976214, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.34640522875817, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0564712492976214, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0841268017286898, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 2.6203597795570346, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020891", "date": "20260203", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 25.266666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020499", "date": "20251213", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 21.616666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020833", "date": "20250201", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 30.366666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020274", "date": "20241116", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 22.75 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. 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Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477465", "goalieName": "Tristan Jarry", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8476931", "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 2, "log": [ { "gameId": "2023020311", "date": "20231125", "season": 2023, "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 2 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477465", "goalieName": "Tristan Jarry", "opponent": "TOR", "games": 5, "availableGames": 13, "shotsAgainst": 102.0, "goalsAgainst": 16.0, "savePct": 0.8431372549019608, "gaa": 4.100811618966254, "gsax": -2.944, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020499", "date": "20251213", "goalieTeam": "EDM", "opponent": "TOR", "shotsAgainst": 28.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.854 }, { "gameId": "2025020396", "date": "20251129", "goalieTeam": "PIT", "opponent": "TOR", "shotsAgainst": 13.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 2107.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.626 }, { "gameId": "2025020199", "date": "20251103", "goalieTeam": "PIT", "opponent": "TOR", "shotsAgainst": 20.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3452.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.296 }, { "gameId": "2024020433", "date": "20241207", "goalieTeam": "PIT", "opponent": "TOR", "shotsAgainst": 27.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3571.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.846 }, { "gameId": "2023020466", "date": "20231216", "goalieTeam": "PIT", "opponent": "TOR", "shotsAgainst": 14.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 1316.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.434 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.7479447972892439, "adjustedSOG": 0.7479447972892439, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.7632089768257591, "adjustedSOG": 0.7479447972892439, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.049313926009106474, "goalHistoryGoals": 7.0, "goalHistoryShots": 159.0, "goalExpected": 0.03763683101267134, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.03869130154475332, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.036937368130353004, "goalProbability": 0.03795235406578158, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.10149859354285778 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05772306836358578, "modelSOG": 0.7479447972892439, "historyGames": 157, "seasonGames": { "2024": 66, "2025": 80, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 7.0, "historyShots": 159.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.0440251572327044, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.049313926009106474, "goalieFactor": 1.0280169850571896, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 40.16039722707955, "btb": { "id": "8476931", "name": "Jake McCabe", "score": 40.16039722707955, "components": { "Goal model": 9.534883720930232, "SOG model": 15.348837209302326, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 2.6744186046511627, "Goalie": 92.20588235294117, "Team H2H": 53.31965684446102, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": 0, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 347 } }, { "id": "8483464", "name": "Marco Kasper", "team": "DET", "opponent": "CGY", "position": "C", "currentGP": 1, "currentSOG": 4.0, "priorSOG": 1.617283950617284, "currentTOI": 10.833333333333334, "currentFiveTOI": 9.066666666666666, "ppShare": 0.2375, "rate": 1.8543776547996726, "fifty": 2.763306171059814, "inputs": { "Player": "Marco Kasper", "Player_ID": "8483464", "Team": "DET", "Opponent": "CGY", "Position": "C", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 1.686046517347307, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 2.505879212374396, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 1, "Prior_GP": 81, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 26.470588235294116, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 7.0435588507877664, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 10.83743842364532, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 9.943333333333332, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 9.066666666666666, "Current_PP_Share": 0.2375, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.1419056411882701, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 57.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 240.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 1, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.430208333333333, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 1.1339452940149328, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 1.2896744791666666, "Other_State_SOG": 0.05555555555555555, "Environment_Proxy": 1.096640755468006, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.617283950617284, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:49.643453+00:00", "priorGP": 81, "currentTotalSOG": 4.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.95, "volumeNote": "Observed 4.00 SOG/game in 1 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 1 games. 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MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021063", "date": "20260316", "team": "DET", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 14.766666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020477", "date": "20251210", "team": "DET", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 12.466666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020834", "date": "20250201", "team": "DET", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 17.3 }, { "gameId": "2024020350", "date": "20241127", "team": "DET", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 13.3 } ], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Reviewed October22 projected lineup and coach reports", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. 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Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.151, "currentIXG": 0.030199999999999998, "priorTOI": 6.333333333333333, "priorPPTOI": 0, "deploymentChange": 0.023333333333334316, "ppTOIChange": 0.0, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2024020294", "date": "20241119", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 5.65 } ], "h2hGames": 1, "h2hAvailableGames": 1, "h2hSOG": 1.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "EDM", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 239.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 26.555555555555557, "mostAllowedRank": 18, "fiveSogAllowed60": 25.09786377362711, "pkSogAllowed60": 57.79388917659244, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 40.111111111111114, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 74.0, "C": 64.0, "L": 57.0, "R": 44.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.111111111111111, "L": 6.333333333333333, "R": 4.888888888888889, "D": 8.222222222222221 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 28.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 24.5, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 26.555555555555557, "oppPosSogAllowed": 4.888888888888889, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8477465", "team": "EDM", "name": "Tristan Jarry", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 3, "savePct": 0.8732394366197183, "gaa": 2.974387221151198, "gsax": -2.739, "goalsAllowed": 9.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 6.261, "shotsAgainst": 71.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0280169850571896, "factor": 1.0280169850571896, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-23T18:50:20.460Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.11251216670649111, "goalHistoryGoals": 2.0, "goalHistoryShots": 32.0, "goalExpected": 0.04218937671975539, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.04337139585688492, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.04131178984808486, "goalProbability": 0.04244430819798353, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.11325183498986716, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 5, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 0.374976128846707, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.7755637126376507, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 6.356666666666667, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.3053872053872055, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.0, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9913228889134689, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0841268017286898, "Position_Factor": 0.9918962386417378, "Input_GP": 5, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1572.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 9.574468085106384, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 6.266666666666667, "Prior_PP_Share": 0, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9565717572620075, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.382352941176471, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9565717572620075, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0841268017286898, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 3.7755637126376507, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 1.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. 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Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 6, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477465", "goalieName": "Tristan Jarry", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8479772", "goals": 0, "sog": 5, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 3, "recordedAttempts": 6, "log": [ { "gameId": "2022020324", "date": "20221125", "season": 2022, "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 3 }, { "gameId": "2021020604", "date": "20220106", "season": 2021, "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2021020153", "date": "20211104", "season": 2021, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477465", "goalieName": "Tristan Jarry", "opponent": "TOR", "games": 5, "availableGames": 13, "shotsAgainst": 102.0, "goalsAgainst": 16.0, "savePct": 0.8431372549019608, "gaa": 4.100811618966254, "gsax": -2.944, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020499", "date": "20251213", "goalieTeam": "EDM", "opponent": "TOR", "shotsAgainst": 28.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.854 }, { "gameId": "2025020396", "date": "20251129", "goalieTeam": "PIT", "opponent": "TOR", "shotsAgainst": 13.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 2107.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.626 }, { "gameId": "2025020199", "date": "20251103", "goalieTeam": "PIT", "opponent": "TOR", "shotsAgainst": 20.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3452.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.296 }, { "gameId": "2024020433", "date": "20241207", "goalieTeam": "PIT", "opponent": "TOR", "shotsAgainst": 27.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3571.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.846 }, { "gameId": "2023020466", "date": "20231216", "goalieTeam": "PIT", "opponent": "TOR", "shotsAgainst": 14.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 1316.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.434 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.374976128846707, "adjustedSOG": 0.374976128846707, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.38262870290480305, "adjustedSOG": 0.374976128846707, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.11251216670649111, "goalHistoryGoals": 2.0, "goalHistoryShots": 32.0, "goalExpected": 0.04305038440791366, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.044256526384576444, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.04213687251534058, "goalProbability": 0.043291494982008544, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.11546224666679622 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12851606005256827, "modelSOG": 0.374976128846707, "historyGames": 29, "seasonGames": { "2024": 21, "2025": 3, "2026": 5 }, "historyGoals": 2.0, "historyShots": 32.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.0625, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.11251216670649111, "goalieFactor": 1.0280169850571896, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": 41.333218337540835, "btb": { "id": "8479772", "name": "Zack MacEwen", "score": 41.333218337540835, "components": { "Goal model": 12.093023255813954, "SOG model": 4.186046511627907, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 20.46511627906977, "Goalie": 92.20588235294117, "Team H2H": 51.19867078091621, "Goalie H2H": 47.58410880458125 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 1, "goalieH2HShots": 5, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 329 } }, { "id": "8477951", "name": "Nick Schmaltz", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "TBL", "position": "C", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 3.1, "priorSOG": 2.5121951219512195, "currentTOI": 18.281666666666666, "currentFiveTOI": 13.005, "ppShare": 0.7279151943462897, "rate": 2.265237871143473, "fifty": 2.420841687226286, "inputs": { "Player": "Nick Schmaltz", "Player_ID": "8477951", "Team": "UTA", "Opponent": "TBL", "Position": "C", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 3.0156658247436523, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 3.4459063526410105, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 10, "Prior_GP": 82, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 8.304498269896193, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.78802313712147, "Current_PP_SOG60": 15.88702559576346, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 11.867599569429494, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 13.404475609756098, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 13.005, "Current_PP_Share": 0.7279151943462897, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.6343895110625513, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2266.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3113.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 6, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.821018518518519, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 3.374025916534069, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 3.5092926318544695, "Other_State_SOG": 0.27146341463414636, "Environment_Proxy": 0.8844868901771036, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 2.5121951219512195, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/utah-mammoth/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:49.686080+00:00", "priorGP": 82, "currentTotalSOG": 31.0, "currentPPTOI": 3.7766666666666664, "volumeNote": "Observed 3.10 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 3.759, "currentIXG": 0.3759, "priorTOI": 19.723373983739837, "priorPPTOI": 3.0211382113821137, "deploymentChange": -1.4417073170731705, "ppTOIChange": 0.7555284552845527, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020825", "date": "20260126", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 22.233333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020194", "date": "20251102", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 20.366666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024021145", "date": "20250327", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 19.166666666666668 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 0.6666666666666666, "opponentDefense": { "team": "TBL", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 218.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 24.22222222222222, "mostAllowedRank": 29, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.310572168589594, "pkSogAllowed60": 47.9002079002079, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 36.333333333333336, "positionUnassignedSOG": 1.0, "positionTotals": { "L": 36.0, "R": 49.0, "D": 66.0, "C": 66.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.333333333333333, "L": 4.0, "R": 5.444444444444445, "D": 7.333333333333333 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 24.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.25, "positionSourceDifference": 1.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, "oppSogAllowed": 24.22222222222222, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.333333333333333, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8483710", "team": "TBL", "name": "Dennis Hildeby", "status": "Unconfirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 2, "savePct": 0.92, "gaa": 2.0089285714285716, "gsax": 0.8719999999999999, "goalsAllowed": 4.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.872, "shotsAgainst": 50.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9926942170737747, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Starter remains unconfirmed per Daily Faceoff; no Model Goal adjustment.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": null }, "goalShootingPct": 0.13928236427096663, "goalHistoryGoals": 60.0, "goalHistoryShots": 423.0, "goalExpected": 0.395855059002342, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.395855059002342, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.3268957507311061, "goalProbability": 0.3268957507311061, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 2.8421046776045995, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 8.304498269896193, "Current_PP_SOG60": 15.88702559576346, "Current_5v5_Min": 13.005, "Current_PP_Share": 0.7279151943462897, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.821018518518519, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 3.5092926318544695, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.3, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9588832837562793, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0032616490671127, "Position_Factor": 0.985038993166415, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2266.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3113.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.78802313712147, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 11.867599569429494, "Prior_5v5_Min": 14.336585365853658, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.6343895110625513, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.894372357486514, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.437908496732026, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.894372357486514, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0032616490671127, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 8.304498269896193, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 15.88702559576346, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020825", "date": "20260126", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 22.233333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020194", "date": "20251102", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 20.366666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024021145", "date": "20250327", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 19.166666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2024021111", "date": "20250322", "team": "UTA", "opponent": "TBL", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 19.183333333333334 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported combinations", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 195, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 65, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8483710", "goalieName": "Dennis Hildeby", "starterStatus": "Unconfirmed", "shooterId": "8477951", "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 3, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020733", "date": "20260113", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 3 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8483710", "goalieName": "Dennis Hildeby", "opponent": "UTA", "games": 1, "availableGames": 1, "shotsAgainst": 41.0, "goalsAgainst": 6.0, "savePct": 0.8536585365853658, "gaa": 6.0, "gsax": -1.2770000000000001, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020733", "date": "20260113", "goalieTeam": "TOR", "opponent": "UTA", "shotsAgainst": 41.0, "goalsAgainst": 6.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.723 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 2.8421046776045995, "adjustedSOG": 2.8421046776045995, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 2.8421046776045995, "adjustedSOG": 2.8421046776045995, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.13928236427096663, "goalHistoryGoals": 60.0, "goalHistoryShots": 423.0, "goalExpected": 0.395855059002342, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.395855059002342, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.3268957507311061, "goalProbability": 0.3268957507311061, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12844676513715533, "modelSOG": 2.8421046776045995, "historyGames": 174, "seasonGames": { "2024": 82, "2025": 82, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 60.0, "historyShots": 423.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.14184397163120568, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.13928236427096663, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 64.0008977906543, "btb": { "id": "8477951", "name": "Nick Schmaltz", "score": 64.0008977906543, "components": { "Goal model": 95.11627906976744, "SOG model": 93.48837209302326, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 91.62790697674419, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 40.93621782916822, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Unconfirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": 0, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-composite-v2", "rank": 43 } }, { "id": "8478911", "name": "Matt Roy", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "position": "D", "currentGP": 3, "currentSOG": 0.6666666666666666, "priorSOG": 1.1898734177215189, "currentTOI": 18.116666666666667, "currentFiveTOI": 13.75, "ppShare": 0.0, "rate": 0.9772896222993563, "fifty": 0.8604596814728672, "inputs": { "Player": "Matt Roy", "Player_ID": "8478911", "Team": "WSH", "Opponent": "BUF", "Position": "D", "Rate_Minutes_SOG": 0.8246421869371291, "Fifty_Fifty_SOG": 0.5346567989555274, "Original_SOG": "", "Locked_Consensus_SOG": "", "Current_GP": 3, "Prior_GP": 79, "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.909090909090909, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.7685322686661635, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Rate_Minutes_5v5_Min": 14.824620253164557, "Fifty_Fifty_5v5_Min": 13.75, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.025889825311587455, "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 715.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Games": 2, "Current_PP_Share_Source": "Actual player and team game logs, matched appearances", "Prior_PP_Share_Source": "Approximation from historical skater totals", "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.500555555555556, "Rate_Minutes_PP_Min": 0.03495557914152833, "Fifty_Fifty_PP_Min": 0.0, "Other_State_SOG": 0.07974683544303798, "Environment_Proxy": 0.9496227273390297, "Historical_SOG_per_Game": 1.1898734177215189, "Status": "Provisional rebuilt inputs; original consensus unavailable", "Availability_Note": "Projected lineup" }, "status": "Lineup pending", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-lineup-projections-2026-27-season", "lineupSourceDate": "October 24 advance: latest chart provisional", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-23T20:51:49.709146+00:00", "priorGP": 79, "currentTotalSOG": 2.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.0, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.67 SOG/game in 3 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 3 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "October 24 final dressing lineup unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.381, "currentIXG": 0.127, "priorTOI": 20.609915611814348, "priorPPTOI": 0.11329113924050632, "deploymentChange": -2.4932489451476805, "ppTOIChange": -0.11329113924050632, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021213", "date": "20260404", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 20.933333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025021028", "date": "20260312", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 21.766666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020186", "date": "20251101", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 19.733333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024021171", "date": "20250330", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 17.933333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020637", "date": "20250106", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 20.966666666666665 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 6, "h2hSOG": 1.4, "opponentDefense": { "team": "BUF", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 257.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 25.7, "mostAllowedRank": 24, "fiveSogAllowed60": 21.645723550871505, "pkSogAllowed60": 62.21198156682028, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 40.1, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 61.0, "L": 55.0, "D": 65.0, "C": 76.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.6, "L": 5.5, "R": 6.1, "D": 6.5 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 30.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.25, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 25.7, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.5, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8480045", "team": "BUF", "name": "Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 8, "savePct": 0.8629441624365483, "gaa": 3.5349310833909153, "gsax": -3.6580000000000013, "goalsAllowed": 27.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 23.342, "shotsAgainst": 197.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.035448902624297, "factor": 1.035448902624297, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T15:43:35.500Z" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.038499131909930685, "goalHistoryGoals": 5.0, "goalHistoryShots": 180.0, "goalExpected": 0.024187547731669087, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.02504496975592956, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.023897373243479268, "goalProbability": 0.024733946434207357, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.08365731907280897, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "currentIXGGP": 3, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "trial": 0.6282621589561092, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.909090909090909, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 13.75, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.500555555555556, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.0, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.922717716387106, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.1429256259066152, "Position_Factor": 0.9922053498483736, "Input_GP": 3, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-21", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 715.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.7685322686661635, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 17.332067510548523, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.025889825311587455, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9423932384341638, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.34640522875817, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9423932384341638, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.1429256259066152, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 0, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-21" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 1.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 1.6666666666666667 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-23; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021213", "date": "20260404", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 20.933333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025021028", "date": "20260312", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 21.766666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020186", "date": "20251101", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 19.733333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024021171", "date": "20250330", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 17.933333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020637", "date": "20250106", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 20.966666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2024020480", "date": "20241214", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 20.483333333333334 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "NHL.com October 20 game-specific projected lineup", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-23", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-21", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-21", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-21", "shotChart": "2026-10-21", "goalie": "2026-10-21" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 133, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-21. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Saturday projected lines not loaded; forward line, defense pair, and PP role pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Saturday PP unit not loaded; no projected PP reassignment applied.", "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480045", "goalieName": "Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8478911", "goals": 0, "sog": 8, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 5, "recordedAttempts": 14, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021028", "date": "20260312", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2025020186", "date": "20251101", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 4 }, { "gameId": "2024020637", "date": "20250106", "season": 2024, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 3 }, { "gameId": "2024020480", "date": "20241214", "season": 2024, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2 }, { "gameId": "2023020824", "date": "20240213", "season": 2023, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 4 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2021–22 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-23; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23" }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480045", "goalieName": "Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen", "opponent": "WSH", "games": 5, "availableGames": 10, "shotsAgainst": 138.0, "goalsAgainst": 13.0, "savePct": 0.9057971014492754, "gaa": 2.5547246028713357, "gsax": 1.2270000000000003, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021028", "date": "20260312", "goalieTeam": "BUF", "opponent": "WSH", "shotsAgainst": 22.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3513.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.736 }, { "gameId": "2025020186", "date": "20251101", "goalieTeam": "BUF", "opponent": "WSH", "shotsAgainst": 34.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3868.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.692 }, { "gameId": "2024020637", "date": "20250106", "goalieTeam": "BUF", "opponent": "WSH", "shotsAgainst": 28.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3900.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.29 }, { "gameId": "2024020480", "date": "20241214", "goalieTeam": "BUF", "opponent": "WSH", "shotsAgainst": 30.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3438.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.234 }, { "gameId": "2023021255", "date": "20240411", "goalieTeam": "BUF", "opponent": "WSH", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.275 } ], "window": "Last five available 2008–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-23", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 0.6282621589561092, "adjustedSOG": 0.6282621589561092, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "Required base-model components unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.6282621589561092, "adjustedSOG": 0.6282621589561092, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": 0.038499131909930685, "goalHistoryGoals": 5.0, "goalHistoryShots": 180.0, "goalExpected": 0.024187547731669087, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.02504496975592956, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.023897373243479268, "goalProbability": 0.024733946434207357, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.08365731907280897 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.057797569347805916, "modelSOG": 0.6282621589561092, "historyGames": 151, "seasonGames": { "2024": 69, "2025": 79, "2026": 3 }, "historyGoals": 5.0, "historyShots": 180.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.027777777777777776, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.038499131909930685, "goalieFactor": 1.035448902624297, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 35.08830663926488, "btb": { "id": "8478911", "name": "Matt Roy", "score": 35.08830663926488, "components": { "Goal model": 4.883720930232558, "SOG model": 10.69767441860465, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 53.02325581395349, "Goalie": 7.794117647058823, "Team H2H": 53.62271540469974, "Goalie H2H": 44.51534075481944 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Current-slate PP-unit assignments unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected 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candidate", "listedCandidate": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, { "id": "8481611", "name": "Pyotr Kochetkov", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "STL", "games": 6, "savePct": 0.8991596638655462, "gaa": 1.9842910293509715, "gsax": 2.2720000000000002, "gsax60": 0.3756924348904506, "shotsAgainst": 119.0, "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "listedCandidate": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, { "id": "8476412", "name": "Jordan Binnington", "team": "STL", "opponent": "CAR", "games": 3, "savePct": 0.8313253012048193, "gaa": 4.677494199535963, "gsax": -5.0280000000000005, "gsax60": -1.6798886310904875, "shotsAgainst": 83.0, "starterStatus": "Not listed candidate", "listedCandidate": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, { "id": "8475831", "name": "Philipp Grubauer", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "games": 6, "savePct": 0.9050632911392404, "gaa": 2.719580983078163, "gsax": 3.7940000000000005, "gsax60": 0.6878726833199034, "shotsAgainst": 158.0, "starterStatus": "Not listed candidate", "listedCandidate": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, { "id": "8480022", "name": "Michael DiPietro", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "games": 2, "savePct": 0.9122807017543859, "gaa": 2.5448890145624206, "gsax": 1.0999999999999996, "gsax60": 0.5598755832037323, "shotsAgainst": 57.0, "starterStatus": "Not listed candidate", "listedCandidate": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, { "id": "8478499", "name": "Adin Hill", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "CBJ", "games": 4, "savePct": 0.90625, "gaa": 2.2078364565587734, "gsax": 1.0559999999999992, "gsax60": 0.2590528109028959, "shotsAgainst": 96.0, "starterStatus": "Not listed candidate", "listedCandidate": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, { "id": "8481551", "name": "Colten Ellis", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "WSH", "games": 3, "savePct": 0.864406779661017, "gaa": 3.194321206743567, "gsax": 0.1639999999999997, "gsax60": 0.065483584738243, "shotsAgainst": 59.0, "starterStatus": "Not listed candidate", "listedCandidate": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, { "id": "8475717", "name": "Calvin Pickard", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "SEA", "games": 1, "savePct": 0.8, "gaa": 5.0, "gsax": -2.18, "gsax60": -2.18, "shotsAgainst": 25.0, "starterStatus": "Not listed candidate", "listedCandidate": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, { "id": "8479292", "name": "Charlie Lindgren", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "games": 2, "savePct": 0.896551724137931, "gaa": 3.061224489795918, "gsax": 0.2989999999999995, "gsax60": 0.152551020408163, "shotsAgainst": 58.0, "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "listedCandidate": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, { "id": "8481668", "name": "Arturs Silovs", "team": "PIT", "opponent": "NSH", "games": 6, "savePct": 0.8662420382165605, "gaa": 3.5131744040150563, "gsax": -1.0760000000000005, "gsax60": -0.18000836470096201, "shotsAgainst": 157.0, "starterStatus": "Likely", "listedCandidate": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, { "id": "8479361", "name": "Joseph Woll", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "ANA", "games": 6, "savePct": 0.9166666666666666, "gaa": 2.640143007746253, "gsax": 4.5710000000000015, "gsax60": 0.7542558555255079, "shotsAgainst": 192.0, "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "listedCandidate": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, { "id": "8482076", "name": "Nico Daws", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "LAK", "games": 3, "savePct": 0.8571428571428572, "gaa": 3.377110694183865, "gsax": -2.697, "gsax60": -0.9108067542213885, "shotsAgainst": 70.0, "starterStatus": "Not listed candidate", "listedCandidate": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, { "id": "8475660", "name": "Cam Talbot", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "VGK", "games": 4, "savePct": 0.8674698795180723, "gaa": 3.3959351685104195, "gsax": -0.8840000000000003, "gsax60": -0.2729096989966556, "shotsAgainst": 83.0, "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "listedCandidate": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, { "id": "8480313", "name": "Logan Thompson", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.900990099009901, "gaa": 2.8963353312683533, "gsax": 4.128999999999998, "gsax60": 0.5979484291403513, "shotsAgainst": 202.0, "starterStatus": "Not listed candidate", "listedCandidate": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, { "id": "8478435", "name": "Dan Vladar", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "ANA", "games": 6, "savePct": 0.9, "gaa": 3.1509121061359866, "gsax": 1.754999999999999, "gsax60": 0.2910447761194028, "shotsAgainst": 190.0, "starterStatus": "Not listed candidate", "listedCandidate": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, { "id": "8478024", "name": "Ville Husso", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "PHI", "games": 3, "savePct": 0.8852459016393442, "gaa": 3.0788026878436163, "gsax": 0.9350000000000005, "gsax60": 0.41124007330482615, "shotsAgainst": 61.0, "starterStatus": "Not listed candidate", "listedCandidate": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, { "id": "8475311", "name": "Darcy Kuemper", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "NJD", "games": 5, "savePct": 0.8692307692307693, "gaa": 3.9430449069003286, "gsax": -2.535, "gsax60": -0.5879775787642548, "shotsAgainst": 130.0, "starterStatus": "Not listed candidate", "listedCandidate": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, { "id": "8483548", "name": "Brandon Bussi", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "STL", "games": 5, "savePct": 0.8818897637795275, "gaa": 2.9763545168935677, "gsax": -2.4640000000000004, "gsax60": -0.4889158353083835, "shotsAgainst": 127.0, "starterStatus": "Not listed candidate", "listedCandidate": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, { "id": "8477424", "name": "Juuse Saros", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "PIT", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.9061032863849765, "gaa": 2.8192176670973805, "gsax": 1.6679999999999993, "gsax60": 0.23512275343592143, "shotsAgainst": 213.0, "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "listedCandidate": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, { "id": "8477465", "name": "Tristan Jarry", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "TOR", "games": 3, "savePct": 0.8732394366197183, "gaa": 2.974387221151198, "gsax": -2.739, "gsax60": -0.9052051776370146, "shotsAgainst": 71.0, "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "listedCandidate": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, { "id": "8480193", "name": "Daniil Tarasov", "team": "DET", "opponent": "CGY", "games": 4, "savePct": 0.9404761904761905, "gaa": 1.4026338346450558, "gsax": 5.077999999999999, "gsax60": 1.4245149224655185, "shotsAgainst": 84.0, "starterStatus": "Not listed candidate", "listedCandidate": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, { "id": "8482193", "name": "Dylan Garand", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "OTT", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.9285714285714286, "gaa": 1.846928781306842, "gsax": 4.030999999999999, "gsax60": 0.6768154470407162, "shotsAgainst": 154.0, "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "listedCandidate": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, { "id": "8479394", "name": "Carter Hart", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "CBJ", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.8876404494382022, "gaa": 2.8716148845371516, "gsax": -1.5090000000000003, "gsax60": -0.21666334303832813, "shotsAgainst": 178.0, "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "listedCandidate": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, { "id": "8481692", "name": "Dustin Wolf", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "DET", "games": 5, "savePct": 0.8344827586206897, "gaa": 4.853932584269663, "gsax": -7.959, "gsax60": -1.6096853932584267, "shotsAgainst": 145.0, "starterStatus": "Not listed candidate", "listedCandidate": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, { "id": "8477484", "name": "Spencer Martin", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "OTT", "games": 1, "savePct": 0.8333333333333334, "gaa": 5.091937765205092, "gsax": -1.089, "gsax60": -1.8483734087694483, "shotsAgainst": 18.0, "starterStatus": "Not listed candidate", "listedCandidate": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, { "id": "8481035", "name": "Samuel Ersson", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "NYR", "games": 4, "savePct": 0.8309859154929577, "gaa": 4.698716554274527, "gsax": -4.096, "gsax60": -1.6038285838590385, "shotsAgainst": 71.0, "starterStatus": "Not listed candidate", "listedCandidate": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, { "id": "8482982", "name": "Jet Greaves", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "VGK", "games": 6, "savePct": 0.8832116788321168, "gaa": 3.3381628513474357, "gsax": -0.38400000000000034, "gsax60": -0.08011590843233853, "shotsAgainst": 137.0, "starterStatus": "Not listed candidate", "listedCandidate": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, { "id": null, "name": "Justus Annunen", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "PIT", "games": 0, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "gsax60": null, "shotsAgainst": 0, "starterStatus": "Not listed candidate", "listedCandidate": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, { "id": null, "name": "Jonas Johansson", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "NYR", "games": 0, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "gsax60": null, "shotsAgainst": null, "starterStatus": "Not listed candidate", "listedCandidate": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, { "id": null, "name": "Michal Postava", "team": "DET", "opponent": "CGY", "games": 0, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "gsax60": null, "shotsAgainst": null, "starterStatus": "Not listed candidate", "listedCandidate": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" } ], "goalies": { "ANA": { "id": "8480843", "team": "ANA", "name": "Lukas Dostal", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.8813559322033898, "gaa": 3.1634446397188047, "gsax": 2.846, "goalsAllowed": 21.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 23.846, "shotsAgainst": 177.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9815060369171769, "factor": 0.9815060369171769, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T16:38:16.530Z" }, "PHI": { "id": "8479361", "team": "PHI", "name": "Joseph Woll", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 6, "savePct": 0.9166666666666666, "gaa": 2.640143007746253, "gsax": 4.5710000000000015, "goalsAllowed": 16.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 20.571, "shotsAgainst": 192.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9655996195755495, "factor": 0.9655996195755495, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T14:50:13.988Z" }, "LAK": { "id": "8476341", "team": "LAK", "name": "Anton Forsberg", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 3, "savePct": 0.8833333333333333, "gaa": 2.6313041662315966, "gsax": -2.1049999999999995, "goalsAllowed": 7.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.8950000000000005, "shotsAgainst": 60.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0218332511814823, "factor": 1.0218332511814823, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T19:00:24.293Z" }, "NJD": { "id": "8474596", "team": "NJD", "name": "Jake Allen", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 6, "savePct": 0.8834355828220859, "gaa": 3.1496062992125986, "gsax": -3.708, "goalsAllowed": 19.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 15.292, "shotsAgainst": 163.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0365218981504722, "factor": 1.0365218981504722, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T17:31:56.013Z" }, "CAR": { "id": "8481611", "team": "CAR", "name": "Pyotr Kochetkov", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 6, "savePct": 0.8991596638655462, "gaa": 1.9842910293509715, "gsax": 2.2720000000000002, "goalsAllowed": 12.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 14.272, "shotsAgainst": 119.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9828959307519136, "factor": 0.9828959307519136, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T22:32:34.088Z" }, "STL": { "id": "8480981", "team": "STL", "name": "Joel Hofer", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 6, "savePct": 0.9192546583850931, "gaa": 2.1949160491511117, "gsax": 2.83, "goalsAllowed": 13.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 15.83, "shotsAgainst": 161.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9785370006226618, "factor": 0.9785370006226618, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T15:44:23.131Z" }, "NSH": { "id": "8477424", "team": "NSH", "name": "Juuse Saros", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.9061032863849765, "gaa": 2.8192176670973805, "gsax": 1.6679999999999993, "goalsAllowed": 20.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 21.668, "shotsAgainst": 213.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9906396066739361, "factor": 0.9906396066739361, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T15:56:16.281Z" }, "PIT": { "id": "8481668", "team": "PIT", "name": "Arturs Silovs", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 6, "savePct": 0.8662420382165605, "gaa": 3.5131744040150563, "gsax": -1.0760000000000005, "goalsAllowed": 21.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 19.924, "shotsAgainst": 157.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0136052553954562, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Likely starter per Daily Faceoff; no Model Goal adjustment until confirmed.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T15:01:09.604Z" }, "NYR": { "id": "8482193", "team": "NYR", "name": "Dylan Garand", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.9285714285714286, "gaa": 1.846928781306842, "gsax": 4.030999999999999, "goalsAllowed": 11.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 15.030999999999999, "shotsAgainst": 154.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9674872583533348, "factor": 0.9674872583533348, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T15:37:42.216Z" }, "OTT": { "id": "8477992", "team": "OTT", "name": "Jonas Johansson", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 0, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "goalsAllowed": null, "xGoalsAgainst": null, "shotsAgainst": null, "scenarioFactor": 1, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; no matching goalie statistics in this snapshot, so the goalie factor remains neutral.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T15:15:50.280Z", "idResolution": "Exact goalie name mapped to one unique MoneyPuck player ID" }, "SJS": { "id": "8477968", "team": "SJS", "name": "Alex Nedeljkovic", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 4, "savePct": 0.9173553719008265, "gaa": 2.372479240806643, "gsax": 4.638, "goalsAllowed": 10.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 14.638, "shotsAgainst": 121.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9618500831522029, "factor": 0.9618500831522029, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T16:06:01.887Z" }, "BOS": { "id": "8480280", "team": "BOS", "name": "Jeremy Swayman", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 8, "savePct": 0.9279279279279279, "gaa": 1.976189659313137, "gsax": 7.695, "goalsAllowed": 16.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 23.695, "shotsAgainst": 222.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9412127550171275, "factor": 0.9412127550171275, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T14:59:19.712Z" }, "VGK": { "id": "8479394", "team": "VGK", "name": "Carter Hart", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.8876404494382022, "gaa": 2.8716148845371516, "gsax": -1.5090000000000003, "goalsAllowed": 20.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 18.491, "shotsAgainst": 178.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.017200797231895, "factor": 1.017200797231895, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T22:33:02.238Z" }, "CBJ": { "id": "8475660", "team": "CBJ", "name": "Cam Talbot", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 4, "savePct": 0.8674698795180723, "gaa": 3.3959351685104195, "gsax": -0.8840000000000003, "goalsAllowed": 11.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 10.116, "shotsAgainst": 83.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0106708091071457, "factor": 1.0106708091071457, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T15:32:32.146Z" }, "BUF": { "id": "8480045", "team": "BUF", "name": "Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 8, "savePct": 0.8629441624365483, "gaa": 3.5349310833909153, "gsax": -3.6580000000000013, "goalsAllowed": 27.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 23.342, "shotsAgainst": 197.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.035448902624297, "factor": 1.035448902624297, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T15:43:35.500Z" }, "WSH": { "id": "8479292", "team": "WSH", "name": "Charlie Lindgren", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 2, "savePct": 0.896551724137931, "gaa": 3.061224489795918, "gsax": 0.2989999999999995, "goalsAllowed": 6.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 6.2989999999999995, "shotsAgainst": 58.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.99868053226692, "factor": 0.99868053226692, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T14:45:41.433Z" }, "TOR": { "id": "8476932", "team": "TOR", "name": "Anthony Stolarz", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 4, "savePct": 0.8974358974358975, "gaa": 2.9929333518082304, "gsax": 0.46399999999999864, "goalsAllowed": 12.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 12.463999999999999, "shotsAgainst": 117.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9986972168772468, "factor": 0.9986972168772468, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T20:54:34.227Z" }, "EDM": { "id": "8477465", "team": "EDM", "name": "Tristan Jarry", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 3, "savePct": 0.8732394366197183, "gaa": 2.974387221151198, "gsax": -2.739, "goalsAllowed": 9.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 6.261, "shotsAgainst": 71.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0280169850571896, "factor": 1.0280169850571896, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-23T18:50:20.460Z" }, "TBL": { "id": "8483710", "team": "TBL", "name": "Dennis Hildeby", "status": "Unconfirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 2, "savePct": 0.92, "gaa": 2.0089285714285716, "gsax": 0.8719999999999999, "goalsAllowed": 4.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.872, "shotsAgainst": 50.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9926942170737747, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Starter remains unconfirmed per Daily Faceoff; no Model Goal adjustment.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": null }, "UTA": { "id": "8478872", "team": "UTA", "name": "Karel Vejmelka", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 8, "savePct": 0.8793103448275862, "gaa": 2.8927833473635878, "gsax": -2.0919999999999987, "goalsAllowed": 21.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 18.908, "shotsAgainst": 174.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0222659253207917, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Likely starter per Daily Faceoff; no Model Goal adjustment until confirmed.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T17:11:59.953Z" }, "MIN": { "id": "8482661", "team": "MIN", "name": "Jesper Wallstedt", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 9, "savePct": 0.9152542372881356, "gaa": 2.1979363819525, "gsax": 6.934999999999999, "goalsAllowed": 20.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 26.935, "shotsAgainst": 236.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9495343259526882, "factor": 0.9495343259526882, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T18:37:27.914Z" }, "SEA": { "id": "8478916", "team": "SEA", "name": "Joey Daccord", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 5, "savePct": 0.881578947368421, "gaa": 3.8855909336211547, "gsax": -2.3970000000000002, "goalsAllowed": 18.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 15.603, "shotsAgainst": 152.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.024854248577667, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Likely starter per Daily Faceoff; no Model Goal adjustment until confirmed.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T20:31:39.541Z" }, "DET": { "id": "8476434", "team": "DET", "name": "John Gibson", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 6, "savePct": 0.8734177215189873, "gaa": 3.5755077717634207, "gsax": -1.6310000000000002, "goalsAllowed": 20.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 18.369, "shotsAgainst": 158.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0182492009293351, "factor": 1.0182492009293351, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T17:52:44.365Z" }, "CGY": { "id": "8482445", "team": "CGY", "name": "Devin Cooley", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-25T00:03:59+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-24", "games": 3, "savePct": 0.8681318681318682, "gaa": 4.010025062656641, "gsax": -2.561, "goalsAllowed": 12.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 9.439, "shotsAgainst": 91.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0263021756310153, "factor": 1.0263021756310153, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "note": "Confirmed starter per Daily Faceoff; existing confirmed-only goalie factor applied using stats through October 21.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "sourceUpdatedAt": "2026-10-24T16:24:22.507Z" } }, "positionDefenses": [ { "team": "NYI", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 228.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 25.333333333333332, "mostAllowedRank": 26, "fiveSogAllowed60": 23.15428393233024, "pkSogAllowed60": 39.89501312335958, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 38.666666666666664, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 73.0, "D": 58.0, "R": 53.0, "L": 44.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 8.11111111111111, "L": 4.888888888888889, "R": 5.888888888888889, "D": 6.444444444444445 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 23.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 24.75, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, { "team": "PIT", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 279.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.9, "mostAllowedRank": 12, "fiveSogAllowed60": 26.122338261223383, "pkSogAllowed60": 50.11600928074246, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 42.4, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 55.0, "L": 47.0, "D": 70.0, "C": 107.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.7, "L": 4.7, "R": 5.5, "D": 7.0 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 25.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 3, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 28.333333333333332, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, { "team": "TOR", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 332.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 30.181818181818183, "mostAllowedRank": 5, "fiveSogAllowed60": 28.565965583173995, "pkSogAllowed60": 43.340857787810386, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.0, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 130.0, "D": 98.0, "R": 49.0, "L": 55.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 11.818181818181818, "L": 5.0, "R": 4.454545454545454, "D": 8.909090909090908 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 30.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 35.25, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, { "team": "NYR", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 283.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 25.727272727272727, "mostAllowedRank": 23, "fiveSogAllowed60": 24.897512126427788, "pkSogAllowed60": 40.17358958462492, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 39.81818181818182, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 106.0, "D": 82.0, "R": 57.0, "L": 38.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.636363636363637, "L": 3.4545454545454546, "R": 5.181818181818182, "D": 7.454545454545454 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 27.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.4, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, { "team": "BOS", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 280.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 28.0, "mostAllowedRank": 11, "fiveSogAllowed60": 26.539776154413243, "pkSogAllowed60": 48.89206576125804, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 42.4, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 68.0, "R": 50.0, "L": 68.0, "C": 94.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.4, "L": 6.8, "R": 5.0, "D": 6.8 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 26.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 25.0, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, { "team": "BUF", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 257.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 25.7, "mostAllowedRank": 24, "fiveSogAllowed60": 21.645723550871505, "pkSogAllowed60": 62.21198156682028, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 40.1, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 61.0, "L": 55.0, "D": 65.0, "C": 76.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.6, "L": 5.5, "R": 6.1, "D": 6.5 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 30.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.25, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, { "team": "FLA", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 246.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 24.6, "mostAllowedRank": 28, "fiveSogAllowed60": 21.676332606848657, "pkSogAllowed60": 48.946947480671824, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 37.6, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 76.0, "C": 78.0, "L": 50.0, "R": 42.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.8, "L": 5.0, "R": 4.2, "D": 7.6 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 26.0, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 7, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 25.142857142857142, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, { "team": "UTA", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 225.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 22.5, "mostAllowedRank": 30, "fiveSogAllowed60": 21.06050814598143, "pkSogAllowed60": 53.47313237221494, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 35.6, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 58.0, "C": 87.0, "R": 52.0, "L": 28.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 8.7, "L": 2.8, "R": 5.2, "D": 5.8 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 22.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 20.25, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, { "team": "CGY", "games": 8, "sogAllowedTotal": 237.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 29.625, "mostAllowedRank": 6, "fiveSogAllowed60": 29.8086265894977, "pkSogAllowed60": 38.789888106092, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.5, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 59.0, "C": 89.0, "R": 48.0, "L": 41.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 11.125, "L": 5.125, "R": 6.0, "D": 7.375 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 30.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.5, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, { "team": "SJS", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 286.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 28.6, "mostAllowedRank": 10, "fiveSogAllowed60": 25.210423540502322, "pkSogAllowed60": 49.90958408679928, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 47.8, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 86.0, "C": 94.0, "R": 53.0, "L": 53.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 9.4, "L": 5.3, "R": 5.3, "D": 8.6 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 30.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 29.833333333333332, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, { "team": "NSH", "games": 8, "sogAllowedTotal": 233.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 29.125, "mostAllowedRank": 8, "fiveSogAllowed60": 26.902173913043477, "pkSogAllowed60": 37.776914108045084, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 45.125, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 82.0, "L": 44.0, "D": 67.0, "R": 40.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.25, "L": 5.5, "R": 5.0, "D": 8.375 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 27.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 3, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 30.0, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-21" }, { "team": "EDM", "games": 9, "sogAllowedTotal": 239.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 26.555555555555557, "mostAllowedRank": 18, "fiveSogAllowed60": 25.09786377362711, "pkSogAllowed60": 57.79388917659244, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 40.111111111111114, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 74.0, "C": 64.0, "L": 57.0, "R": 44.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.111111111111111, "L": 6.333333333333333, "R": 4.888888888888889, "D": 8.222222222222221 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 28.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 24.5, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "strengthStatsThrough": 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opponent team SOG used as shots-faced proxy", "fallback": false }, "8477484:NYR": { "id": "8477484", "name": "Spencer Martin", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "OTT", "projectedShotsFaced": 24.713878151680564, "rawSavePct": 0.8333333333333334, "adjustedSavePct": 0.8899609240504618, "currentShots": 18.0, "currentGoals": 3.0, "currentWeight": 0.03474903474903475, "projectedSaves": 21.994385836740154, "projectedGoalsAllowed": 2.719492314940411, "starterStatus": "Not listed candidate", "listedCandidate": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "basis": "Full-game start; opponent team SOG used as shots-faced proxy", "fallback": false }, "8481035:OTT": { "id": "8481035", "name": "Samuel Ersson", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "NYR", "projectedShotsFaced": 24.83867105038859, "rawSavePct": 0.8309859154929577, "adjustedSavePct": 0.8844128873172316, "currentShots": 71.0, "currentGoals": 12.0, "currentWeight": 0.1243432574430823, "projectedSaves": 21.967640780797105, "projectedGoalsAllowed": 2.8710302695914844, "starterStatus": "Not the confirmed starter", "listedCandidate": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "basis": "Full-game start; opponent team SOG used as shots-faced proxy", "fallback": false }, "8482982:CBJ": { "id": "8482982", "name": "Jet Greaves", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "VGK", "projectedShotsFaced": 29.03666196794845, "rawSavePct": 0.8832116788321168, "adjustedSavePct": 0.8901095112372671, "currentShots": 137.0, "currentGoals": 16.0, "currentWeight": 0.2150706436420722, "projectedSaves": 25.845808992252337, "projectedGoalsAllowed": 3.1908529756961124, "starterStatus": "Not the confirmed starter", "listedCandidate": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "basis": "Full-game start; opponent team SOG used as shots-faced proxy", "fallback": false } }, "teamMatchupProjections": { "ANA": { "team": "ANA", "opponent": "PHI", "teamGames": 9.0, "opponentGames": 12.0, "projectedSOG": 27.92595352102179, "components": [ { "situation": "5v5", "teamSituation": "5on5", "opponentSituation": "5on5", "offenseSOG60": 24.846084467275794, "opponentAllowedSOG60": 31.042564889030356, "teamMinutes": 47.224074074074075, "opponentMinutes": 47.99861111111111, "expectedMinutes": 47.61134259259259, "matchupSOG60": 27.944324678153073, "shots": 22.174446929503098 }, { "situation": "Power play", "teamSituation": "5on4", "opponentSituation": "4on5", "offenseSOG60": 34.852763210972164, "opponentAllowedSOG60": 46.879209699146834, "teamMinutes": 4.590740740740741, "opponentMinutes": 6.186111111111111, "expectedMinutes": 5.388425925925926, "matchupSOG60": 40.8659864550595, "shots": 3.670055681716339 }, { "situation": "Shorthanded", "teamSituation": "4on5", "opponentSituation": "5on4", "offenseSOG60": 5.024424284717377, "opponentAllowedSOG60": 10.465116279069768, "teamMinutes": 5.307407407407407, "opponentMinutes": 4.777777777777778, "expectedMinutes": 5.042592592592593, "matchupSOG60": 7.744770281893572, "shots": 0.6508953542467962 }, { "situation": "Other situations", "teamSOGPerGame": 1.4444444444444444, "opponentAllowedPerGame": 1.4166666666666667, "shots": 1.4305555555555556 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "model": "team-matchup-current-equal-v1", "source": "Saved MoneyPuck team season totals", "note": "Experimental team-only estimate. Equal offense/defense and opportunity averages; no player projection changes. Other includes remaining recorded situations. Not calibrated; no score-state or lineup adjustment." }, "PHI": { "team": "PHI", "opponent": "ANA", "teamGames": 12.0, "opponentGames": 9.0, "projectedSOG": 24.205118367840647, "components": [ { "situation": "5v5", "teamSituation": "5on5", "opponentSituation": "5on5", "offenseSOG60": 19.68806967794207, "opponentAllowedSOG60": 25.834281008587897, "teamMinutes": 47.99861111111111, "opponentMinutes": 47.224074074074075, "expectedMinutes": 47.61134259259259, "matchupSOG60": 22.761175343264984, "shots": 18.061501951304344 }, { "situation": "Power play", "teamSituation": "5on4", "opponentSituation": "4on5", "offenseSOG60": 52.325581395348834, "opponentAllowedSOG60": 38.93928820655967, "teamMinutes": 4.777777777777778, "opponentMinutes": 5.307407407407407, "expectedMinutes": 5.042592592592593, "matchupSOG60": 45.63243480095425, "shots": 3.8350962951542726 }, { "situation": "Shorthanded", "teamSituation": "4on5", "opponentSituation": "5on4", "offenseSOG60": 7.2743601257296815, "opponentAllowedSOG60": 1.4521984671238402, "teamMinutes": 6.186111111111111, "opponentMinutes": 4.590740740740741, "expectedMinutes": 5.388425925925926, "matchupSOG60": 4.363279296426761, "shots": 0.3918534547153632 }, { "situation": "Other situations", "teamSOGPerGame": 1.1666666666666667, "opponentAllowedPerGame": 2.6666666666666665, "shots": 1.9166666666666665 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "model": "team-matchup-current-equal-v1", "source": "Saved MoneyPuck team season totals", "note": "Experimental team-only estimate. Equal offense/defense and opportunity averages; no player projection changes. Other includes remaining recorded situations. Not calibrated; no score-state or lineup adjustment." }, "LAK": { "team": "LAK", "opponent": "NJD", "teamGames": 7.0, "opponentGames": 9.0, "projectedSOG": 27.654706995919234, "components": [ { "situation": "5v5", "teamSituation": "5on5", "opponentSituation": "5on5", "offenseSOG60": 26.462805057336077, "opponentAllowedSOG60": 24.374647357532442, "teamMinutes": 48.58571428571429, "opponentMinutes": 49.23148148148148, "expectedMinutes": 48.908597883597885, "matchupSOG60": 25.41872620743426, "shots": 20.719904313211224 }, { "situation": "Power play", "teamSituation": "5on4", "opponentSituation": "4on5", "offenseSOG60": 44.906444906444904, "opponentAllowedSOG60": 52.512155591572125, "teamMinutes": 4.5809523809523816, "opponentMinutes": 4.57037037037037, "expectedMinutes": 4.575661375661376, "matchupSOG60": 48.709300249008514, "shots": 3.714621063081355 }, { "situation": "Shorthanded", "teamSituation": "4on5", "opponentSituation": "5on4", "offenseSOG60": 19.204655674102813, "opponentAllowedSOG60": 7.944097094520044, "teamMinutes": 4.90952380952381, "opponentMinutes": 5.035185185185186, "expectedMinutes": 4.972354497354498, "matchupSOG60": 13.574376384311428, "shots": 1.1249435243885604 }, { "situation": "Other situations", "teamSOGPerGame": 2.857142857142857, "opponentAllowedPerGame": 1.3333333333333333, "shots": 2.0952380952380953 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "model": "team-matchup-current-equal-v1", "source": "Saved MoneyPuck team season totals", "note": "Experimental team-only estimate. Equal offense/defense and opportunity averages; no player projection changes. Other includes remaining recorded situations. Not calibrated; no score-state or lineup adjustment." }, "NJD": { "team": "NJD", "opponent": "LAK", "teamGames": 9.0, "opponentGames": 7.0, "projectedSOG": 31.591144861787956, "components": [ { "situation": "5v5", "teamSituation": "5on5", "opponentSituation": "5on5", "offenseSOG60": 34.666165130712805, "opponentAllowedSOG60": 25.227874154660395, "teamMinutes": 49.23148148148148, "opponentMinutes": 48.58571428571429, "expectedMinutes": 48.908597883597885, "matchupSOG60": 29.947019642686598, "shots": 24.4111123586061 }, { "situation": "Power play", "teamSituation": "5on4", "opponentSituation": "4on5", "offenseSOG60": 62.228760573740345, "opponentAllowedSOG60": 57.61396702230844, "teamMinutes": 5.035185185185186, "opponentMinutes": 4.90952380952381, "expectedMinutes": 4.972354497354498, "matchupSOG60": 59.92136379802439, "shots": 4.965837712812027 }, { "situation": "Shorthanded", "teamSituation": "4on5", "opponentSituation": "5on4", "offenseSOG60": 7.293354943273906, "opponentAllowedSOG60": 9.355509355509355, "teamMinutes": 4.57037037037037, "opponentMinutes": 4.5809523809523816, "expectedMinutes": 4.575661375661376, "matchupSOG60": 8.32443214939163, "shots": 0.6348297110047515 }, { "situation": "Other situations", "teamSOGPerGame": 1.4444444444444444, "opponentAllowedPerGame": 1.7142857142857142, "shots": 1.5793650793650793 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "model": "team-matchup-current-equal-v1", "source": "Saved MoneyPuck team season totals", "note": "Experimental team-only estimate. Equal offense/defense and opportunity averages; no player projection changes. Other includes remaining recorded situations. Not calibrated; no score-state or lineup adjustment." }, "NYR": { "team": "NYR", "opponent": "OTT", "teamGames": 11.0, "opponentGames": 10.0, "projectedSOG": 24.83867105038859, "components": [ { "situation": "5v5", "teamSituation": "5on5", "opponentSituation": "5on5", "offenseSOG60": 22.982318885933342, "opponentAllowedSOG60": 23.477120373069077, "teamMinutes": 48.41666666666667, "opponentMinutes": 45.74666666666666, "expectedMinutes": 47.08166666666666, "matchupSOG60": 23.22971962950121, "shots": 18.22823193927166 }, { "situation": "Power play", "teamSituation": "5on4", "opponentSituation": "4on5", "offenseSOG60": 51.330798479087456, "opponentAllowedSOG60": 46.82395644283122, "teamMinutes": 4.781818181818182, "opponentMinutes": 5.51, "expectedMinutes": 5.145909090909091, "matchupSOG60": 49.07737746095934, "shots": 4.20912871390546 }, { "situation": "Shorthanded", "teamSituation": "4on5", "opponentSituation": "5on4", "offenseSOG60": 7.811531308121513, "opponentAllowedSOG60": 10.1194659170766, "teamMinutes": 4.887878787878788, "opponentMinutes": 7.115, "expectedMinutes": 6.001439393939394, "matchupSOG60": 8.965498612599056, "shots": 0.896764942666016 }, { "situation": "Other situations", "teamSOGPerGame": 0.9090909090909091, "opponentAllowedPerGame": 2.1, "shots": 1.5045454545454546 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "model": "team-matchup-current-equal-v1", "source": "Saved MoneyPuck team season totals", "note": "Experimental team-only estimate. Equal offense/defense and opportunity averages; no player projection changes. Other includes remaining recorded situations. Not calibrated; no score-state or lineup adjustment." }, "OTT": { "team": "OTT", "opponent": "NYR", "teamGames": 10.0, "opponentGames": 11.0, "projectedSOG": 24.713878151680564, "components": [ { "situation": "5v5", "teamSituation": "5on5", "opponentSituation": "5on5", "offenseSOG60": 21.378606820169047, "opponentAllowedSOG60": 24.897512126427788, "teamMinutes": 45.74666666666666, "opponentMinutes": 48.41666666666667, "expectedMinutes": 47.08166666666666, "matchupSOG60": 23.13805947329842, "shots": 18.156306723922416 }, { "situation": "Power play", "teamSituation": "5on4", "opponentSituation": "4on5", "offenseSOG60": 42.164441321152495, "opponentAllowedSOG60": 40.17358958462492, "teamMinutes": 7.115, "opponentMinutes": 4.887878787878788, "expectedMinutes": 6.001439393939394, "matchupSOG60": 41.16901545288871, "shots": 4.1178891858111 }, { "situation": "Shorthanded", "teamSituation": "4on5", "opponentSituation": "5on4", "offenseSOG60": 6.533575317604356, "opponentAllowedSOG60": 9.125475285171103, "teamMinutes": 5.51, "opponentMinutes": 4.781818181818182, "expectedMinutes": 5.145909090909091, "matchupSOG60": 7.829525301387729, "shots": 0.671500423765231 }, { "situation": "Other situations", "teamSOGPerGame": 1.9, "opponentAllowedPerGame": 1.6363636363636365, "shots": 1.768181818181818 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "model": "team-matchup-current-equal-v1", "source": "Saved MoneyPuck team season totals", "note": "Experimental team-only estimate. Equal offense/defense and opportunity averages; no player projection changes. Other includes remaining recorded situations. Not calibrated; no score-state or lineup adjustment." }, "CAR": { "team": "CAR", "opponent": "STL", "teamGames": 11.0, "opponentGames": 9.0, "projectedSOG": 30.737348922113057, "components": [ { "situation": "5v5", "teamSituation": "5on5", "opponentSituation": "5on5", "offenseSOG60": 33.03938859494415, "opponentAllowedSOG60": 24.991224991224993, "teamMinutes": 46.39090909090909, "opponentMinutes": 47.483333333333334, "expectedMinutes": 46.93712121212121, "matchupSOG60": 29.01530679308457, "shots": 22.698249532564905 }, { "situation": "Power play", "teamSituation": "5on4", "opponentSituation": "4on5", "offenseSOG60": 50.740563784042045, "opponentAllowedSOG60": 45.92737978410206, "teamMinutes": 6.342424242424243, "opponentMinutes": 5.661111111111111, "expectedMinutes": 6.0017676767676775, "matchupSOG60": 48.33397178407205, "shots": 4.83482115905741 }, { "situation": "Shorthanded", "teamSituation": "4on5", "opponentSituation": "5on4", "offenseSOG60": 16.966126656848306, "opponentAllowedSOG60": 19.09090909090909, "teamMinutes": 5.1439393939393945, "opponentMinutes": 4.888888888888889, "expectedMinutes": 5.016414141414142, "matchupSOG60": 18.028517873878698, "shots": 1.5073085335210452 }, { "situation": "Other situations", "teamSOGPerGame": 1.7272727272727273, "opponentAllowedPerGame": 1.6666666666666667, "shots": 1.696969696969697 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "model": "team-matchup-current-equal-v1", "source": "Saved MoneyPuck team season totals", "note": "Experimental team-only estimate. Equal offense/defense and opportunity averages; no player projection changes. Other includes remaining recorded situations. Not calibrated; no score-state or lineup adjustment." }, "STL": { "team": "STL", "opponent": "CAR", "teamGames": 9.0, "opponentGames": 11.0, "projectedSOG": 24.31573147262524, "components": [ { "situation": "5v5", "teamSituation": "5on5", "opponentSituation": "5on5", "offenseSOG60": 24.85082485082485, "opponentAllowedSOG60": 21.75191064079953, "teamMinutes": 47.483333333333334, "opponentMinutes": 46.39090909090909, "expectedMinutes": 46.93712121212121, "matchupSOG60": 23.30136774581219, "shots": 18.228318704889976 }, { "situation": "Power play", "teamSituation": "5on4", "opponentSituation": "4on5", "offenseSOG60": 43.63636363636363, "opponentAllowedSOG60": 32.87187039764359, "teamMinutes": 4.888888888888889, "opponentMinutes": 5.1439393939393945, "expectedMinutes": 5.016414141414142, "matchupSOG60": 38.25411701700361, "shots": 3.1983082261901377 }, { "situation": "Shorthanded", "teamSituation": "4on5", "opponentSituation": "5on4", "offenseSOG60": 14.131501472031402, "opponentAllowedSOG60": 5.160057333970378, "teamMinutes": 5.661111111111111, "opponentMinutes": 6.342424242424243, "expectedMinutes": 6.0017676767676775, "matchupSOG60": 9.64577940300089, "shots": 0.9648621173027029 }, { "situation": "Other situations", "teamSOGPerGame": 1.6666666666666667, "opponentAllowedPerGame": 2.1818181818181817, "shots": 1.9242424242424243 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "model": "team-matchup-current-equal-v1", "source": "Saved MoneyPuck team season totals", "note": "Experimental team-only estimate. Equal offense/defense and opportunity averages; no player projection changes. Other includes remaining recorded situations. Not calibrated; no score-state or lineup adjustment." }, "NSH": { "team": "NSH", "opponent": "PIT", "teamGames": 8.0, "opponentGames": 10.0, "projectedSOG": 26.16163998083465, "components": [ { "situation": "5v5", "teamSituation": "5on5", "opponentSituation": "5on5", "offenseSOG60": 20.329483695652176, "opponentAllowedSOG60": 26.122338261223383, "teamMinutes": 49.06666666666667, "opponentMinutes": 49.153333333333336, "expectedMinutes": 49.11, "matchupSOG60": 23.22591097843778, "shots": 19.010408135851325 }, { "situation": "Power play", "teamSituation": "5on4", "opponentSituation": "4on5", "offenseSOG60": 43.6198409693298, "opponentAllowedSOG60": 50.11600928074246, "teamMinutes": 5.502083333333333, "opponentMinutes": 4.3100000000000005, "expectedMinutes": 4.906041666666667, "matchupSOG60": 46.86792512503613, "shots": 3.8322665582273467 }, { "situation": "Shorthanded", "teamSituation": "4on5", "opponentSituation": "5on4", "offenseSOG60": 15.39059463661096, "opponentAllowedSOG60": 12.244897959183673, "teamMinutes": 5.360416666666667, "opponentMinutes": 4.9, "expectedMinutes": 5.130208333333334, "matchupSOG60": 13.817746297897315, "shots": 1.1814652867559772 }, { "situation": "Other situations", "teamSOGPerGame": 2.375, "opponentAllowedPerGame": 1.9, "shots": 2.1375 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "model": "team-matchup-current-equal-v1", "source": "Saved MoneyPuck team season totals", "note": "Experimental team-only estimate. Equal offense/defense and opportunity averages; no player projection changes. Other includes remaining recorded situations. Not calibrated; no score-state or lineup adjustment." }, "PIT": { "team": "PIT", "opponent": "NSH", "teamGames": 10.0, "opponentGames": 8.0, "projectedSOG": 28.257324878679196, "components": [ { "situation": "5v5", "teamSituation": "5on5", "opponentSituation": "5on5", "offenseSOG60": 26.610606266106064, "opponentAllowedSOG60": 26.902173913043477, "teamMinutes": 49.153333333333336, "opponentMinutes": 49.06666666666667, "expectedMinutes": 49.11, "matchupSOG60": 26.756390089574772, "shots": 21.900105288316954 }, { "situation": "Power play", "teamSituation": "5on4", "opponentSituation": "4on5", "offenseSOG60": 41.63265306122449, "opponentAllowedSOG60": 37.776914108045084, "teamMinutes": 4.9, "opponentMinutes": 5.360416666666667, "expectedMinutes": 5.130208333333334, "matchupSOG60": 39.70478358463478, "shots": 3.3948968603181653 }, { "situation": "Shorthanded", "teamSituation": "4on5", "opponentSituation": "5on4", "offenseSOG60": 8.352668213457077, "opponentAllowedSOG60": 10.90496024233245, "teamMinutes": 4.3100000000000005, "opponentMinutes": 5.502083333333333, "expectedMinutes": 4.906041666666667, "matchupSOG60": 9.628814227894765, "shots": 0.7873227300440758 }, { "situation": "Other situations", "teamSOGPerGame": 1.6, "opponentAllowedPerGame": 2.75, "shots": 2.175 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "model": "team-matchup-current-equal-v1", "source": "Saved MoneyPuck team season totals", "note": "Experimental team-only estimate. Equal offense/defense and opportunity averages; no player projection changes. Other includes remaining recorded situations. Not calibrated; no score-state or lineup adjustment." }, "SJS": { "team": "SJS", "opponent": "BOS", "teamGames": 10.0, "opponentGames": 10.0, "projectedSOG": 28.128759652862538, "components": [ { "situation": "5v5", "teamSituation": "5on5", "opponentSituation": "5on5", "offenseSOG60": 25.695239377819675, "opponentAllowedSOG60": 26.539776154413243, "teamMinutes": 49.50333333333334, "opponentMinutes": 49.736666666666665, "expectedMinutes": 49.620000000000005, "matchupSOG60": 26.11750776611646, "shots": 21.599178922578314 }, { "situation": "Power play", "teamSituation": "5on4", "opponentSituation": "4on5", "offenseSOG60": 40.94681832154934, "opponentAllowedSOG60": 48.89206576125804, "teamMinutes": 5.421666666666667, "opponentMinutes": 4.663333333333333, "expectedMinutes": 5.0425, "matchupSOG60": 44.919442041403684, "shots": 3.7751047748963016 }, { "situation": "Shorthanded", "teamSituation": "4on5", "opponentSituation": "5on4", "offenseSOG60": 8.679927667269439, "opponentAllowedSOG60": 9.607319862752574, "teamMinutes": 5.529999999999999, "opponentMinutes": 4.371666666666667, "expectedMinutes": 4.950833333333334, "matchupSOG60": 9.143623765011007, "shots": 0.7544759553879222 }, { "situation": "Other situations", "teamSOGPerGame": 2.5, "opponentAllowedPerGame": 1.5, "shots": 2.0 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "model": "team-matchup-current-equal-v1", "source": "Saved MoneyPuck team season totals", "note": "Experimental team-only estimate. Equal offense/defense and opportunity averages; no player projection changes. Other includes remaining recorded situations. Not calibrated; no score-state or lineup adjustment." }, "BOS": { "team": "BOS", "opponent": "SJS", "teamGames": 10.0, "opponentGames": 10.0, "projectedSOG": 26.661931478567034, "components": [ { "situation": "5v5", "teamSituation": "5on5", "opponentSituation": "5on5", "offenseSOG60": 24.971516654379734, "opponentAllowedSOG60": 25.210423540502322, "teamMinutes": 49.736666666666665, "opponentMinutes": 49.50333333333334, "expectedMinutes": 49.620000000000005, "matchupSOG60": 25.09097009744103, "shots": 20.750232270583734 }, { "situation": "Power play", "teamSituation": "5on4", "opponentSituation": "4on5", "offenseSOG60": 37.056805184902785, "opponentAllowedSOG60": 49.90958408679928, "teamMinutes": 4.371666666666667, "opponentMinutes": 5.529999999999999, "expectedMinutes": 4.950833333333334, "matchupSOG60": 43.483194635851035, "shots": 3.587967490716542 }, { "situation": "Shorthanded", "teamSituation": "4on5", "opponentSituation": "5on4", "offenseSOG60": 3.8598999285203717, "opponentAllowedSOG60": 12.173378419920073, "teamMinutes": 4.663333333333333, "opponentMinutes": 5.421666666666667, "expectedMinutes": 5.0425, "matchupSOG60": 8.016639174220222, "shots": 0.6737317172667578 }, { "situation": "Other situations", "teamSOGPerGame": 1.2, "opponentAllowedPerGame": 2.1, "shots": 1.65 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "model": "team-matchup-current-equal-v1", "source": "Saved MoneyPuck team season totals", "note": "Experimental team-only estimate. Equal offense/defense and opportunity averages; no player projection changes. Other includes remaining recorded situations. Not calibrated; no score-state or lineup adjustment." }, "VGK": { "team": "VGK", "opponent": "CBJ", "teamGames": 11.0, "opponentGames": 8.0, "projectedSOG": 29.03666196794845, "components": [ { "situation": "5v5", "teamSituation": "5on5", "opponentSituation": "5on5", "offenseSOG60": 28.06272559070642, "opponentAllowedSOG60": 26.021128266541208, "teamMinutes": 49.9530303030303, "opponentMinutes": 48.71041666666667, "expectedMinutes": 49.33172348484848, "matchupSOG60": 27.041926928623816, "shots": 22.23374769567247 }, { "situation": "Power play", "teamSituation": "5on4", "opponentSituation": "4on5", "offenseSOG60": 50.717703349282296, "opponentAllowedSOG60": 45.718967636214664, "teamMinutes": 5.7, "opponentMinutes": 5.085416666666666, "expectedMinutes": 5.392708333333333, "matchupSOG60": 48.21833549274848, "shots": 4.333790327186787 }, { "situation": "Shorthanded", "teamSituation": "4on5", "opponentSituation": "5on4", "offenseSOG60": 14.472361809045227, "opponentAllowedSOG60": 8.841588211215718, "teamMinutes": 3.015151515151515, "opponentMinutes": 5.089583333333334, "expectedMinutes": 4.052367424242425, "matchupSOG60": 11.656975010130473, "shots": 0.7873057632710123 }, { "situation": "Other situations", "teamSOGPerGame": 1.3636363636363635, "opponentAllowedPerGame": 2.0, "shots": 1.6818181818181817 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "model": "team-matchup-current-equal-v1", "source": "Saved MoneyPuck team season totals", "note": "Experimental team-only estimate. Equal offense/defense and opportunity averages; no player projection changes. Other includes remaining recorded situations. Not calibrated; no score-state or lineup adjustment." }, "CBJ": { "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "VGK", "teamGames": 8.0, "opponentGames": 11.0, "projectedSOG": 26.20853983373622, "components": [ { "situation": "5v5", "teamSituation": "5on5", "opponentSituation": "5on5", "offenseSOG60": 25.09730122749241, "opponentAllowedSOG60": 23.585792714368043, "teamMinutes": 48.71041666666667, "opponentMinutes": 49.9530303030303, "expectedMinutes": 49.33172348484848, "matchupSOG60": 24.341546970930224, "shots": 20.013507739389684 }, { "situation": "Power play", "teamSituation": "5on4", "opponentSituation": "4on5", "offenseSOG60": 50.10233319688907, "opponentAllowedSOG60": 47.03517587939699, "teamMinutes": 5.089583333333334, "opponentMinutes": 3.015151515151515, "expectedMinutes": 4.052367424242425, "matchupSOG60": 48.568754538143025, "shots": 3.2803073121066206 }, { "situation": "Shorthanded", "teamSituation": "4on5", "opponentSituation": "5on4", "offenseSOG60": 7.37402703809914, "opponentAllowedSOG60": 16.267942583732058, "teamMinutes": 5.085416666666666, "opponentMinutes": 5.7, "expectedMinutes": 5.392708333333333, "matchupSOG60": 11.820984810915599, "shots": 1.0624520549671883 }, { "situation": "Other situations", "teamSOGPerGame": 2.25, "opponentAllowedPerGame": 1.4545454545454546, "shots": 1.8522727272727273 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "model": "team-matchup-current-equal-v1", "source": "Saved MoneyPuck team season totals", "note": "Experimental team-only estimate. Equal offense/defense and opportunity averages; no player projection changes. Other includes remaining recorded situations. Not calibrated; no score-state or lineup adjustment." }, "BUF": { "team": "BUF", "opponent": "WSH", "teamGames": 10.0, "opponentGames": 9.0, "projectedSOG": 28.100817669101623, "components": [ { "situation": "5v5", "teamSituation": "5on5", "opponentSituation": "5on5", "offenseSOG60": 24.929063640048643, "opponentAllowedSOG60": 28.540383918869974, "teamMinutes": 49.339999999999996, "opponentMinutes": 46.016666666666666, "expectedMinutes": 47.67833333333333, "matchupSOG60": 26.73472377945931, "shots": 21.244451198860897 }, { "situation": "Power play", "teamSituation": "5on4", "opponentSituation": "4on5", "offenseSOG60": 46.35678391959799, "opponentAllowedSOG60": 52.820345614607106, "teamMinutes": 5.306666666666667, "opponentMinutes": 5.67962962962963, "expectedMinutes": 5.493148148148148, "matchupSOG60": 49.58856476710255, "shots": 4.539955545328897 }, { "situation": "Shorthanded", "teamSituation": "4on5", "opponentSituation": "5on4", "offenseSOG60": 5.529953917050691, "opponentAllowedSOG60": 5.721096543504172, "teamMinutes": 4.34, "opponentMinutes": 4.661111111111111, "expectedMinutes": 4.500555555555556, "matchupSOG60": 5.6255252302774315, "shots": 0.42196648046738405 }, { "situation": "Other situations", "teamSOGPerGame": 1.9, "opponentAllowedPerGame": 1.8888888888888888, "shots": 1.8944444444444444 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "model": "team-matchup-current-equal-v1", "source": "Saved MoneyPuck team season totals", "note": "Experimental team-only estimate. Equal offense/defense and opportunity averages; no player projection changes. Other includes remaining recorded situations. Not calibrated; no score-state or lineup adjustment." }, "WSH": { "team": "WSH", "opponent": "BUF", "teamGames": 9.0, "opponentGames": 10.0, "projectedSOG": 26.335410718417, "components": [ { "situation": "5v5", "teamSituation": "5on5", "opponentSituation": "5on5", "offenseSOG60": 26.22238319449475, "opponentAllowedSOG60": 21.645723550871505, "teamMinutes": 46.016666666666666, "opponentMinutes": 49.339999999999996, "expectedMinutes": 47.67833333333333, "matchupSOG60": 23.934053372683127, "shots": 19.018929578676282 }, { "situation": "Power play", "teamSituation": "5on4", "opponentSituation": "4on5", "offenseSOG60": 32.896305125148984, "opponentAllowedSOG60": 62.21198156682028, "teamMinutes": 4.661111111111111, "opponentMinutes": 4.34, "expectedMinutes": 4.500555555555556, "matchupSOG60": 47.55414334598463, "shots": 3.56700106709094 }, { "situation": "Shorthanded", "teamSituation": "4on5", "opponentSituation": "5on4", "offenseSOG60": 14.085425497228561, "opponentAllowedSOG60": 10.175879396984925, "teamMinutes": 5.67962962962963, "opponentMinutes": 5.306666666666667, "expectedMinutes": 5.493148148148148, "matchupSOG60": 12.130652447106744, "shots": 1.1105911837608866 }, { "situation": "Other situations", "teamSOGPerGame": 2.7777777777777777, "opponentAllowedPerGame": 2.5, "shots": 2.638888888888889 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "model": "team-matchup-current-equal-v1", "source": "Saved MoneyPuck team season totals", "note": "Experimental team-only estimate. Equal offense/defense and opportunity averages; no player projection changes. Other includes remaining recorded situations. Not calibrated; no score-state or lineup adjustment." }, "TOR": { "team": "TOR", "opponent": "EDM", "teamGames": 11.0, "opponentGames": 9.0, "projectedSOG": 27.221228029046472, "components": [ { "situation": "5v5", "teamSituation": "5on5", "opponentSituation": "5on5", "offenseSOG60": 25.46845124282983, "opponentAllowedSOG60": 25.09786377362711, "teamMinutes": 47.54545454545455, "opponentMinutes": 49.672222222222224, "expectedMinutes": 48.60883838383839, "matchupSOG60": 25.28315750822847, "shots": 20.48308195251013 }, { "situation": "Power play", "teamSituation": "5on4", "opponentSituation": "4on5", "offenseSOG60": 48.75112849834487, "opponentAllowedSOG60": 57.79388917659244, "teamMinutes": 5.034848484848485, "opponentMinutes": 3.5759259259259255, "expectedMinutes": 4.3053872053872055, "matchupSOG60": 53.27250883746865, "shots": 3.8226462991285723 }, { "situation": "Shorthanded", "teamSituation": "4on5", "opponentSituation": "5on4", "offenseSOG60": 9.932279909706546, "opponentAllowedSOG60": 5.68495854717726, "teamMinutes": 6.040909090909091, "opponentMinutes": 4.690740740740741, "expectedMinutes": 5.365824915824916, "matchupSOG60": 7.808619228441903, "shots": 0.6983280602360515 }, { "situation": "Other situations", "teamSOGPerGame": 2.5454545454545454, "opponentAllowedPerGame": 1.8888888888888888, "shots": 2.217171717171717 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "model": "team-matchup-current-equal-v1", "source": "Saved MoneyPuck team season totals", "note": "Experimental team-only estimate. Equal offense/defense and opportunity averages; no player projection changes. Other includes remaining recorded situations. Not calibrated; no score-state or lineup adjustment." }, "EDM": { "team": "EDM", "opponent": "TOR", "teamGames": 9.0, "opponentGames": 11.0, "projectedSOG": 27.881035351505517, "components": [ { "situation": "5v5", "teamSituation": "5on5", "opponentSituation": "5on5", "offenseSOG60": 22.279387093166314, "opponentAllowedSOG60": 28.565965583173995, "teamMinutes": 49.672222222222224, "opponentMinutes": 47.54545454545455, "expectedMinutes": 48.60883838383839, "matchupSOG60": 25.422676338170156, "shots": 20.59611275677909 }, { "situation": "Power play", "teamSituation": "5on4", "opponentSituation": "4on5", "offenseSOG60": 51.16462692459534, "opponentAllowedSOG60": 43.340857787810386, "teamMinutes": 4.690740740740741, "opponentMinutes": 6.040909090909091, "expectedMinutes": 5.365824915824916, "matchupSOG60": 47.25274235620286, "shots": 4.2258323712661445 }, { "situation": "Shorthanded", "teamSituation": "4on5", "opponentSituation": "5on4", "offenseSOG60": 9.321595028482651, "opponentAllowedSOG60": 5.416792055371652, "teamMinutes": 3.5759259259259255, "opponentMinutes": 5.034848484848485, "expectedMinutes": 4.3053872053872055, "matchupSOG60": 7.369193541927151, "shots": 0.528787193157253 }, { "situation": "Other situations", "teamSOGPerGame": 2.3333333333333335, "opponentAllowedPerGame": 2.727272727272727, "shots": 2.5303030303030303 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "model": "team-matchup-current-equal-v1", "source": "Saved MoneyPuck team season totals", "note": "Experimental team-only estimate. Equal offense/defense and opportunity averages; no player projection changes. Other includes remaining recorded situations. Not calibrated; no score-state or lineup adjustment." }, "TBL": { "team": "TBL", "opponent": "UTA", "teamGames": 9.0, "opponentGames": 10.0, "projectedSOG": 26.258227190745284, "components": [ { "situation": "5v5", "teamSituation": "5on5", "opponentSituation": "5on5", "offenseSOG60": 28.961619967035553, "opponentAllowedSOG60": 21.06050814598143, "teamMinutes": 47.18888888888889, "opponentMinutes": 49.001666666666665, "expectedMinutes": 48.09527777777778, "matchupSOG60": 25.01106405650849, "shots": 20.04856788859282 }, { "situation": "Power play", "teamSituation": "5on4", "opponentSituation": "4on5", "offenseSOG60": 47.82016348773842, "opponentAllowedSOG60": 53.47313237221494, "teamMinutes": 5.437037037037037, "opponentMinutes": 3.815, "expectedMinutes": 4.626018518518518, "matchupSOG60": 50.64664792997668, "shots": 3.9048721870826615 }, { "situation": "Shorthanded", "teamSituation": "4on5", "opponentSituation": "5on4", "offenseSOG60": 10.478170478170478, "opponentAllowedSOG60": 3.4693221972373918, "teamMinutes": 4.453703703703704, "opponentMinutes": 5.1883333333333335, "expectedMinutes": 4.821018518518519, "matchupSOG60": 6.973746337703934, "shots": 0.5603426706253563 }, { "situation": "Other situations", "teamSOGPerGame": 1.8888888888888888, "opponentAllowedPerGame": 1.6, "shots": 1.7444444444444445 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "model": "team-matchup-current-equal-v1", "source": "Saved MoneyPuck team season totals", "note": "Experimental team-only estimate. Equal offense/defense and opportunity averages; no player projection changes. Other includes remaining recorded situations. Not calibrated; no score-state or lineup adjustment." }, "UTA": { "team": "UTA", "opponent": "TBL", "teamGames": 10.0, "opponentGames": 9.0, "projectedSOG": 27.07022877720987, "components": [ { "situation": "5v5", "teamSituation": "5on5", "opponentSituation": "5on5", "offenseSOG60": 28.652086663718922, "opponentAllowedSOG60": 23.310572168589594, "teamMinutes": 49.001666666666665, "opponentMinutes": 47.18888888888889, "expectedMinutes": 48.09527777777778, "matchupSOG60": 25.98132941615426, "shots": 20.826320921764804 }, { "situation": "Power play", "teamSituation": "5on4", "opponentSituation": "4on5", "offenseSOG60": 61.29135881786058, "opponentAllowedSOG60": 47.9002079002079, "teamMinutes": 5.1883333333333335, "opponentMinutes": 4.453703703703704, "expectedMinutes": 4.821018518518519, "matchupSOG60": 54.59578335903424, "shots": 4.386788043448822 }, { "situation": "Shorthanded", "teamSituation": "4on5", "opponentSituation": "5on4", "offenseSOG60": 4.718217562254259, "opponentAllowedSOG60": 6.130790190735695, "teamMinutes": 3.815, "opponentMinutes": 5.437037037037037, "expectedMinutes": 4.626018518518518, "matchupSOG60": 5.424503876494978, "shots": 0.41823092310735427 }, { "situation": "Other situations", "teamSOGPerGame": 1.1, "opponentAllowedPerGame": 1.7777777777777777, "shots": 1.4388888888888889 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "model": "team-matchup-current-equal-v1", "source": "Saved MoneyPuck team season totals", "note": "Experimental team-only estimate. Equal offense/defense and opportunity averages; no player projection changes. Other includes remaining recorded situations. Not calibrated; no score-state or lineup adjustment." }, "MIN": { "team": "MIN", "opponent": "SEA", "teamGames": 10.0, "opponentGames": 10.0, "projectedSOG": 30.435338248817967, "components": [ { "situation": "5v5", "teamSituation": "5on5", "opponentSituation": "5on5", "offenseSOG60": 27.81484002722941, "opponentAllowedSOG60": 29.01212141229316, "teamMinutes": 48.96666666666667, "opponentMinutes": 50.461666666666666, "expectedMinutes": 49.71416666666667, "matchupSOG60": 28.41348071976128, "shots": 23.54254193470554 }, { "situation": "Power play", "teamSituation": "5on4", "opponentSituation": "4on5", "offenseSOG60": 59.308072487644154, "opponentAllowedSOG60": 57.63738641280831, "teamMinutes": 4.046666666666667, "opponentMinutes": 3.8516666666666666, "expectedMinutes": 3.9491666666666667, "matchupSOG60": 58.47272945022623, "shots": 3.8486425675641964 }, { "situation": "Shorthanded", "teamSituation": "4on5", "opponentSituation": "5on4", "offenseSOG60": 10.535557506584723, "opponentAllowedSOG60": 9.385474860335195, "teamMinutes": 5.695, "opponentMinutes": 4.475, "expectedMinutes": 5.085, "matchupSOG60": 9.960516183459958, "shots": 0.8441537465482315 }, { "situation": "Other situations", "teamSOGPerGame": 2.1, "opponentAllowedPerGame": 2.3, "shots": 2.2 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "model": "team-matchup-current-equal-v1", "source": "Saved MoneyPuck team season totals", "note": "Experimental team-only estimate. Equal offense/defense and opportunity averages; no player projection changes. Other includes remaining recorded situations. Not calibrated; no score-state or lineup adjustment." }, "SEA": { "team": "SEA", "opponent": "MIN", "teamGames": 10.0, "opponentGames": 10.0, "projectedSOG": 26.266722850338017, "components": [ { "situation": "5v5", "teamSituation": "5on5", "opponentSituation": "5on5", "offenseSOG60": 25.445057304224328, "opponentAllowedSOG60": 23.40367597004765, "teamMinutes": 50.461666666666666, "opponentMinutes": 48.96666666666667, "expectedMinutes": 49.71416666666667, "matchupSOG60": 24.42436663713599, "shots": 20.23728389543919 }, { "situation": "Power play", "teamSituation": "5on4", "opponentSituation": "4on5", "offenseSOG60": 42.90502793296089, "opponentAllowedSOG60": 45.30289727831431, "teamMinutes": 4.475, "opponentMinutes": 5.695, "expectedMinutes": 5.085, "matchupSOG60": 44.103962605637605, "shots": 3.737810830827787 }, { "situation": "Shorthanded", "teamSituation": "4on5", "opponentSituation": "5on4", "offenseSOG60": 1.5577672003461704, "opponentAllowedSOG60": 11.86161449752883, "teamMinutes": 3.8516666666666666, "opponentMinutes": 4.046666666666667, "expectedMinutes": 3.9491666666666667, "matchupSOG60": 6.7096908489375, "shots": 0.4416281240710391 }, { "situation": "Other situations", "teamSOGPerGame": 1.8, "opponentAllowedPerGame": 1.9, "shots": 1.85 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "model": "team-matchup-current-equal-v1", "source": "Saved MoneyPuck team season totals", "note": "Experimental team-only estimate. Equal offense/defense and opportunity averages; no player projection changes. Other includes remaining recorded situations. Not calibrated; no score-state or lineup adjustment." }, "DET": { "team": "DET", "opponent": "CGY", "teamGames": 9.0, "opponentGames": 8.0, "projectedSOG": 29.75547753801618, "components": [ { "situation": "5v5", "teamSituation": "5on5", "opponentSituation": "5on5", "offenseSOG60": 26.953481301307388, "opponentAllowedSOG60": 29.8086265894977, "teamMinutes": 48.72592592592593, "opponentMinutes": 49.31458333333333, "expectedMinutes": 49.02025462962963, "matchupSOG60": 28.38105394540254, "shots": 23.187441517681457 }, { "situation": "Power play", "teamSituation": "5on4", "opponentSituation": "4on5", "offenseSOG60": 57.142857142857146, "opponentAllowedSOG60": 38.789888106092, "teamMinutes": 5.833333333333333, "opponentMinutes": 5.027083333333334, "expectedMinutes": 5.430208333333333, "matchupSOG60": 47.96637262447457, "shots": 4.341123272419894 }, { "situation": "Shorthanded", "teamSituation": "4on5", "opponentSituation": "5on4", "offenseSOG60": 8.462055070517126, "opponentAllowedSOG60": 14.917127071823204, "teamMinutes": 5.514814814814815, "opponentMinutes": 3.0166666666666666, "expectedMinutes": 4.265740740740741, "matchupSOG60": 11.689591071170165, "shots": 0.8310794145814963 }, { "situation": "Other situations", "teamSOGPerGame": 1.6666666666666667, "opponentAllowedPerGame": 1.125, "shots": 1.3958333333333335 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "model": "team-matchup-current-equal-v1", "source": "Saved MoneyPuck team season totals", "note": "Experimental team-only estimate. Equal offense/defense and opportunity averages; no player projection changes. Other includes remaining recorded situations. Not calibrated; no score-state or lineup adjustment." }, "CGY": { "team": "CGY", "opponent": "DET", "teamGames": 8.0, "opponentGames": 9.0, "projectedSOG": 28.457161257260108, "components": [ { "situation": "5v5", "teamSituation": "5on5", "opponentSituation": "5on5", "offenseSOG60": 30.72113556672722, "opponentAllowedSOG60": 24.49072666463971, "teamMinutes": 49.31458333333333, "opponentMinutes": 48.72592592592593, "expectedMinutes": 49.02025462962963, "matchupSOG60": 27.605931115683465, "shots": 22.55416287631365 }, { "situation": "Power play", "teamSituation": "5on4", "opponentSituation": "4on5", "offenseSOG60": 42.26519337016575, "opponentAllowedSOG60": 47.14573539288113, "teamMinutes": 3.0166666666666666, "opponentMinutes": 5.514814814814815, "expectedMinutes": 4.265740740740741, "matchupSOG60": 44.70546438152344, "shots": 3.1783653457666436 }, { "situation": "Shorthanded", "teamSituation": "4on5", "opponentSituation": "5on4", "offenseSOG60": 14.919187733112308, "opponentAllowedSOG60": 8.0, "teamMinutes": 5.027083333333334, "opponentMinutes": 5.833333333333333, "expectedMinutes": 5.430208333333333, "matchupSOG60": 11.459593866556155, "shots": 1.037133035179813 }, { "situation": "Other situations", "teamSOGPerGame": 1.375, "opponentAllowedPerGame": 2.0, "shots": 1.6875 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-21", "model": "team-matchup-current-equal-v1", "source": "Saved MoneyPuck team season totals", "note": "Experimental team-only estimate. Equal offense/defense and opportunity averages; no player projection changes. Other includes remaining recorded situations. Not calibrated; no score-state or lineup adjustment." } } }